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2021-05-18

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20:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高盛化身大多头：上调标普500年度目标位至4700点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2157743298","media":"智通财经","summary":"大约在一个月前，该指数突破了其此前预期的4300点。","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>策略师上调了其对标普500指数的预期，因为强劲的盈利增长和低利率助长了人们对股市在创纪录高位的情况下仍能继续上涨的乐观情绪。</p>\n<p>根据该行的一份报告显示，David J. Kostin及其同事将标普500指数在2021年底的目标点位提高至4700点，大约在一个月前，该指数突破了其此前预期的4300点。这意味着，在今年剩余时间内，该指数较当前水平还有7%的上涨空间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52385bf9b79043463be14f6384f7ed49\" tg-width=\"502\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>强劲的财报季推动美国股市升至历史高位，超出了市场对delta变种、缩减货币刺激措施可能性等因素的担忧。因此，高盛策略师还将今年的每股收益预期从193美元上调至207美元，这意味着年增长率高达45%。</p>\n<p>高盛策略师表示：“企业盈利优于预期以及利率低于预期，推动了上调目标点位。相对于市场共识，我们预计，随着企业成功管控成本，以及高利润科技公司在指数中占据更大份额，营收增长将更为强劲，税前利润率也将进一步扩大。”</p>\n<p>另外，高盛指出，由于股票回购激增和现金持有量增加，企业和家庭将成为美国股票的最大买家。投资者应该通过配置长期增长型股票和短期战术性押注受益疫情的行业来平衡他们的投资组合。</p>\n<p>最后，该行策略师还将2022年底标普500指数的目标点位从4600点上调至4900点。这标志着该指数上涨空间有限，年回报率约为4.3%。他们表示，预计明年盈利增长将放缓，每股收益年增长率为2%。</p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛化身大多头：上调标普500年度目标位至4700点</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛化身大多头：上调标普500年度目标位至4700点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 20:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/528275.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛策略师上调了其对标普500指数的预期，因为强劲的盈利增长和低利率助长了人们对股市在创纪录高位的情况下仍能继续上涨的乐观情绪。\n根据该行的一份报告显示，David J. Kostin及其同事将标普500指数在2021年底的目标点位提高至4700点，大约在一个月前，该指数突破了其此前预期的4300点。这意味着，在今年剩余时间内，该指数较当前水平还有7%的上涨空间。\n\n强劲的财报季推动美国股市升至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/528275.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f76f2b955be371110b877bebef37ba","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/528275.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2157743298","content_text":"高盛策略师上调了其对标普500指数的预期，因为强劲的盈利增长和低利率助长了人们对股市在创纪录高位的情况下仍能继续上涨的乐观情绪。\n根据该行的一份报告显示，David J. Kostin及其同事将标普500指数在2021年底的目标点位提高至4700点，大约在一个月前，该指数突破了其此前预期的4300点。这意味着，在今年剩余时间内，该指数较当前水平还有7%的上涨空间。\n\n强劲的财报季推动美国股市升至历史高位，超出了市场对delta变种、缩减货币刺激措施可能性等因素的担忧。因此，高盛策略师还将今年的每股收益预期从193美元上调至207美元，这意味着年增长率高达45%。\n高盛策略师表示：“企业盈利优于预期以及利率低于预期，推动了上调目标点位。相对于市场共识，我们预计，随着企业成功管控成本，以及高利润科技公司在指数中占据更大份额，营收增长将更为强劲，税前利润率也将进一步扩大。”\n另外，高盛指出，由于股票回购激增和现金持有量增加，企业和家庭将成为美国股票的最大买家。投资者应该通过配置长期增长型股票和短期战术性押注受益疫情的行业来平衡他们的投资组合。\n最后，该行策略师还将2022年底标普500指数的目标点位从4600点上调至4900点。这标志着该指数上涨空间有限，年回报率约为4.3%。他们表示，预计明年盈利增长将放缓，每股收益年增长率为2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":890991720,"gmtCreate":1628073303560,"gmtModify":1631886371405,"author":{"id":"3564909256585570","authorId":"3564909256585570","name":"Fengjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45987ca4f2ac62a210c20544200c49f9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564909256585570","idStr":"3564909256585570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NNDM\">$Nano Dimension Ltd.(NNDM)$</a>Gogogo","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NNDM\">$Nano Dimension Ltd.(NNDM)$</a>Gogogo","text":"$Nano Dimension Ltd.(NNDM)$Gogogo","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b6d67d87a31f0a0005ff020fdb9aef","width":"750","height":"1300"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890991720","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805081729,"gmtCreate":1627823140161,"gmtModify":1631889680132,"author":{"id":"3564909256585570","authorId":"3564909256585570","name":"Fengjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45987ca4f2ac62a210c20544200c49f9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564909256585570","idStr":"3564909256585570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805081729","repostId":"2156663701","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2156663701","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627785184,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2156663701?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 10:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉锂电池储能工厂爆炸，马斯克：普罗米修斯溜号了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2156663701","media":"智通财经","summary":"特斯拉在国际汽车市场上的地位是毋庸置疑的，因为特斯拉的实力是有目共睹的。在新能源领域中，特斯拉完全做到了德高望重，甚至为了和特斯拉做竞争，梅赛德斯要花大价钱来开发自己的纯电动车型。但是，特斯拉的锂电池","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在国际汽车市场上的地位是毋庸置疑的，因为特斯拉的实力是有目共睹的。在新能源领域中，特斯拉完全做到了德高望重，甚至为了和特斯拉做竞争，梅赛德斯要花大价钱来开发自己的纯电动车型。但是，特斯拉的锂电池储能工厂居然爆炸了，不过马斯克对于这件事情表现得很淡定，甚至还在个人的社交平台上面调侃“普罗米修斯溜号了”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210801092049420d24639gjxqxhtn4\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>在当地时间的7月30日上午10:15，位于澳大利亚<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VCP.UK\">维多利亚</a>州的特斯拉Megapaxk储能系统发生爆燃，现场有明火，而且烟雾弥漫。因为事发的设施可是13吨的锂电池，是法国可再生能源公司Neoen和特斯拉合作打造的维多利亚大电池项目组成部分。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210801092056402d246ts11rj1swft\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>不过万幸的是，现场没有造成任何的人员伤亡，这次的火灾是发生在工厂的测试期间。熄火的时候现场已经被疏散，而至于起火的原因，目前尚不清楚。要知道，这可是世界上最大的电池之一的工厂所发生的火灾。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210801092100677d2469i4cu9dth14\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>但是面对这次火灾的出现，马斯克的表现还是非常淡定的。甚至他还调侃说普罗米修斯溜号了。可能对于马斯克来说，这次的火灾损失应该不是特别严重。就算是损失严重，但事情已经发生了，与其悲惨兮兮，倒不如乐观面对。要知道电池发生火灾是一件非常危险的事情，像锂电池，它是以锂金属或者锂合金为负极材料使用非水电解质溶液的一次电池。而且，锂电池爆炸很有可能是因为热失控或者是隔膜损坏。而热失控的原因很好解释，就是因为锂电池过热了，所以就会燃烧爆炸。但如果是隔膜损坏，就等于是电池的正极和负极会直接接触，然后就短路了。众所周知，电池短路也同样会发生爆炸。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210801092104116d246kqxfbybzhuo\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>可能是马斯克已经预料到了锂电池发生爆炸的原因，有可能是热失控或者是隔膜损坏，所以才会如此淡定，甚至还开起了玩笑，意思就是保护工厂的英雄离开了，才会发生火灾事故。当然，至于这场火灾发生的原因以及会损失的利益，只能等到具体的调查结果公布之后才能知晓，相信马斯克应该能笑到最后，毕竟对他来说这只是一件小事情而已。</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉锂电池储能工厂爆炸，马斯克：普罗米修斯溜号了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉锂电池储能工厂爆炸，马斯克：普罗米修斯溜号了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-01 10:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021080109210579dac285&s=b><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特斯拉在国际汽车市场上的地位是毋庸置疑的，因为特斯拉的实力是有目共睹的。在新能源领域中，特斯拉完全做到了德高望重，甚至为了和特斯拉做竞争，梅赛德斯要花大价钱来开发自己的纯电动车型。但是，特斯拉的锂电池储能工厂居然爆炸了，不过马斯克对于这件事情表现得很淡定，甚至还在个人的社交平台上面调侃“普罗米修斯溜号了”。\n\n在当地时间的7月30日上午10:15，位于澳大利亚维多利亚州的特斯拉Megapaxk储能...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021080109210579dac285&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210801092056402d246ts11rj1swft","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021080109210579dac285&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2156663701","content_text":"特斯拉在国际汽车市场上的地位是毋庸置疑的，因为特斯拉的实力是有目共睹的。在新能源领域中，特斯拉完全做到了德高望重，甚至为了和特斯拉做竞争，梅赛德斯要花大价钱来开发自己的纯电动车型。但是，特斯拉的锂电池储能工厂居然爆炸了，不过马斯克对于这件事情表现得很淡定，甚至还在个人的社交平台上面调侃“普罗米修斯溜号了”。\n\n在当地时间的7月30日上午10:15，位于澳大利亚维多利亚州的特斯拉Megapaxk储能系统发生爆燃，现场有明火，而且烟雾弥漫。因为事发的设施可是13吨的锂电池，是法国可再生能源公司Neoen和特斯拉合作打造的维多利亚大电池项目组成部分。\n\n不过万幸的是，现场没有造成任何的人员伤亡，这次的火灾是发生在工厂的测试期间。熄火的时候现场已经被疏散，而至于起火的原因，目前尚不清楚。要知道，这可是世界上最大的电池之一的工厂所发生的火灾。\n\n但是面对这次火灾的出现，马斯克的表现还是非常淡定的。甚至他还调侃说普罗米修斯溜号了。可能对于马斯克来说，这次的火灾损失应该不是特别严重。就算是损失严重，但事情已经发生了，与其悲惨兮兮，倒不如乐观面对。要知道电池发生火灾是一件非常危险的事情，像锂电池，它是以锂金属或者锂合金为负极材料使用非水电解质溶液的一次电池。而且，锂电池爆炸很有可能是因为热失控或者是隔膜损坏。而热失控的原因很好解释，就是因为锂电池过热了，所以就会燃烧爆炸。但如果是隔膜损坏，就等于是电池的正极和负极会直接接触，然后就短路了。众所周知，电池短路也同样会发生爆炸。\n\n可能是马斯克已经预料到了锂电池发生爆炸的原因，有可能是热失控或者是隔膜损坏，所以才会如此淡定，甚至还开起了玩笑，意思就是保护工厂的英雄离开了，才会发生火灾事故。当然，至于这场火灾发生的原因以及会损失的利益，只能等到具体的调查结果公布之后才能知晓，相信马斯克应该能笑到最后，毕竟对他来说这只是一件小事情而已。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":808183703,"gmtCreate":1627565090602,"gmtModify":1631889680135,"author":{"id":"3564909256585570","authorId":"3564909256585570","name":"Fengjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45987ca4f2ac62a210c20544200c49f9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564909256585570","idStr":"3564909256585570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;[鬼脸]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;[鬼脸]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[开心] [鬼脸] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808183703","repostId":"2154231009","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":808183053,"gmtCreate":1627565010972,"gmtModify":1631889680151,"author":{"id":"3564909256585570","authorId":"3564909256585570","name":"Fengjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45987ca4f2ac62a210c20544200c49f9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564909256585570","idStr":"3564909256585570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808183053","repostId":"1106877219","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":801312964,"gmtCreate":1627482611158,"gmtModify":1631889680158,"author":{"id":"3564909256585570","authorId":"3564909256585570","name":"Fengjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45987ca4f2ac62a210c20544200c49f9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564909256585570","idStr":"3564909256585570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"在在","listText":"在在","text":"在在","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801312964","repostId":"1155005642","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155005642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627470041,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155005642?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 19:00","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"市场大跌时，莫做股市里的“投降派”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155005642","media":"苏宁金融研究院","summary":"人们不愿慢慢变富。","content":"<p>作者：薛洪言</p>\n<p>这两天股市持续大跌，市场加速分化，价值股继续杀跌，平安股价正从60元跌向50元。与此同时，科创、军工等板块则表现出超强的抗跌性，甚至不跌反涨，越来越多的投资者加速转换阵营，反过来进一步加速市场分化。</p>\n<p>在这种情况下，价值投资策略大幅跑输市场，趋势投资开始备受青睐。很多投资者一边批判价值投资，一边将价值股割肉卖出，转战芯片、军工、新能源等赛道股。如某位读者所说，「现在投资芯片、军工、新能源等赛道股，买了就能赚钱，平安、万科等价格再低又如何，时间成本耗不起」。</p>\n<p>一句「时间成本耗不起」，便成为追涨杀跌的最好理由。价值投资之难，就难在这里，正如巴菲特的经典总结，「人们不愿慢慢变富」。</p>\n<p><b>可投资者满心期待立马赚钱时，买涨卖跌，换来换去，甘做股市中的「投降派」，恰恰又赚不到钱。</b></p>\n<p>霍华德·马克斯曾提出股市「三阶段」论，无论熊市还是牛市，其演绎过程都会经历三个阶段。</p>\n<p>以牛市为例，在牛市第一阶段，股票低估，市场一片悲观，只有少数人敢于买入并持有。到了第二阶段，基本面出现好转，越来越多的人买入，股价回归合理水平，价值回归时出现了明显的赚钱效应，让市场愈发乐观；于是，就进入第三阶段，市场对未来的预期越来越好，「**点不是梦、**点是牛市起点」等言论主导市场，诱发越来越多的人买入，股市急涨，加速赶顶，直至物极必反，熊市降临。</p>\n<p>熊市三阶段刚好相反，第一阶段，股价高位回落，只有少数人坚定逃离，多数人视下跌为抄底机会；到了第二阶段，基本面开始恶化，越来越多的人卖出，股价从高估跌至合理水平，但下跌带来的亏钱效应，让市场愈发悲观；接着进入第三阶段，市场预期越来越差，任何消息都被解读为坏消息，越来越多的人开始割肉卖出，股市步入恐慌下跌时期，加速寻底，直至物极必反，牛市降临。</p>\n<p><b>股市中的「投降派」，主要发生在第一阶段和第三阶段。</b></p>\n<p>在熊市第三阶段和牛市第一阶段，「投降派」的表现是股票拿不住，越跌越心慌，最后因恐慌而清空持仓。当这些人纷纷卖出股票后，剩下的多是坚定持有者，卖方力量枯竭，慢慢就跌不动了，熊市第三阶段转变成牛市第一阶段。此时，「投降派」刚刚割肉卖出，坚定远离市场，也会错失牛市第一阶段的低估买入机会。</p>\n<p>在牛市第三阶段和熊市第一阶段，「投降派」的表现是高位买入，前期镇定观望，对牛市行情视而不见，现在发现周围很多人都赚到了钱，觉得不能打败市场就加入市场，于是放弃抵抗、追高买入。当这些人纷纷追高买入后，市场买方力量开始枯竭，慢慢就涨不动了，牛市第三阶段开始转变为熊市第一阶段。此时，「投降派」仍沉浸在牛市赚钱效应中，坚定看好股市，把下跌视作抄底机会，越跌越买，仓位越来越重，直至深度套牢。</p>\n<p>可见，<b>股市里的「投降派」总是卖在低点、买在高点。道理很好懂，但落到投资实践中，很多人依旧会陷入这种怪圈。</b></p>\n<p>回到当前A股市场，科创、军工是否已到牛市第三阶段还不好说，相比历史表现，当前市盈率水平虽不低估，但仍较为合理。不过，市场中一大批价值股，估值水平确已跌至历史低点。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/750c6bd3d77f2257d8defc9fc4121a4f\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>根据霍华德的三阶段论，熊市走到第三阶段，越来越多的持有人卖出，卖方力量日益枯竭，股价随时可能触底回升。这个时候，若转换阵营，恐成了股市里的「投降派」。</p>\n<p>很多人将「别人贪婪我恐惧，别人恐惧我贪婪」奉为圭臬，但在市场大跌之时，有多少人还敢于贪婪地买入呢？</p>","source":"lsy1568689437122","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场大跌时，莫做股市里的“投降派”</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场大跌时，莫做股市里的“投降派”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-28 19:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yqe388wR1xtXcKoa8cKp1w><strong>苏宁金融研究院</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：薛洪言\n这两天股市持续大跌，市场加速分化，价值股继续杀跌，平安股价正从60元跌向50元。与此同时，科创、军工等板块则表现出超强的抗跌性，甚至不跌反涨，越来越多的投资者加速转换阵营，反过来进一步加速市场分化。\n在这种情况下，价值投资策略大幅跑输市场，趋势投资开始备受青睐。很多投资者一边批判价值投资，一边将价值股割肉卖出，转战芯片、军工、新能源等赛道股。如某位读者所说，「现在投资芯片、军工、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yqe388wR1xtXcKoa8cKp1w\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a97a16afe8e75d415a74db18ceb0a4c","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yqe388wR1xtXcKoa8cKp1w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155005642","content_text":"作者：薛洪言\n这两天股市持续大跌，市场加速分化，价值股继续杀跌，平安股价正从60元跌向50元。与此同时，科创、军工等板块则表现出超强的抗跌性，甚至不跌反涨，越来越多的投资者加速转换阵营，反过来进一步加速市场分化。\n在这种情况下，价值投资策略大幅跑输市场，趋势投资开始备受青睐。很多投资者一边批判价值投资，一边将价值股割肉卖出，转战芯片、军工、新能源等赛道股。如某位读者所说，「现在投资芯片、军工、新能源等赛道股，买了就能赚钱，平安、万科等价格再低又如何，时间成本耗不起」。\n一句「时间成本耗不起」，便成为追涨杀跌的最好理由。价值投资之难，就难在这里，正如巴菲特的经典总结，「人们不愿慢慢变富」。\n可投资者满心期待立马赚钱时，买涨卖跌，换来换去，甘做股市中的「投降派」，恰恰又赚不到钱。\n霍华德·马克斯曾提出股市「三阶段」论，无论熊市还是牛市，其演绎过程都会经历三个阶段。\n以牛市为例，在牛市第一阶段，股票低估，市场一片悲观，只有少数人敢于买入并持有。到了第二阶段，基本面出现好转，越来越多的人买入，股价回归合理水平，价值回归时出现了明显的赚钱效应，让市场愈发乐观；于是，就进入第三阶段，市场对未来的预期越来越好，「**点不是梦、**点是牛市起点」等言论主导市场，诱发越来越多的人买入，股市急涨，加速赶顶，直至物极必反，熊市降临。\n熊市三阶段刚好相反，第一阶段，股价高位回落，只有少数人坚定逃离，多数人视下跌为抄底机会；到了第二阶段，基本面开始恶化，越来越多的人卖出，股价从高估跌至合理水平，但下跌带来的亏钱效应，让市场愈发悲观；接着进入第三阶段，市场预期越来越差，任何消息都被解读为坏消息，越来越多的人开始割肉卖出，股市步入恐慌下跌时期，加速寻底，直至物极必反，牛市降临。\n股市中的「投降派」，主要发生在第一阶段和第三阶段。\n在熊市第三阶段和牛市第一阶段，「投降派」的表现是股票拿不住，越跌越心慌，最后因恐慌而清空持仓。当这些人纷纷卖出股票后，剩下的多是坚定持有者，卖方力量枯竭，慢慢就跌不动了，熊市第三阶段转变成牛市第一阶段。此时，「投降派」刚刚割肉卖出，坚定远离市场，也会错失牛市第一阶段的低估买入机会。\n在牛市第三阶段和熊市第一阶段，「投降派」的表现是高位买入，前期镇定观望，对牛市行情视而不见，现在发现周围很多人都赚到了钱，觉得不能打败市场就加入市场，于是放弃抵抗、追高买入。当这些人纷纷追高买入后，市场买方力量开始枯竭，慢慢就涨不动了，牛市第三阶段开始转变为熊市第一阶段。此时，「投降派」仍沉浸在牛市赚钱效应中，坚定看好股市，把下跌视作抄底机会，越跌越买，仓位越来越重，直至深度套牢。\n可见，股市里的「投降派」总是卖在低点、买在高点。道理很好懂，但落到投资实践中，很多人依旧会陷入这种怪圈。\n回到当前A股市场，科创、军工是否已到牛市第三阶段还不好说，相比历史表现，当前市盈率水平虽不低估，但仍较为合理。不过，市场中一大批价值股，估值水平确已跌至历史低点。\n\n根据霍华德的三阶段论，熊市走到第三阶段，越来越多的持有人卖出，卖方力量日益枯竭，股价随时可能触底回升。这个时候，若转换阵营，恐成了股市里的「投降派」。\n很多人将「别人贪婪我恐惧，别人恐惧我贪婪」奉为圭臬，但在市场大跌之时，有多少人还敢于贪婪地买入呢？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":801316186,"gmtCreate":1627482561845,"gmtModify":1631889680175,"author":{"id":"3564909256585570","authorId":"3564909256585570","name":"Fengjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45987ca4f2ac62a210c20544200c49f9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564909256585570","idStr":"3564909256585570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"赞","listText":"赞","text":"赞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801316186","repostId":"1112526034","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":809590111,"gmtCreate":1627376394033,"gmtModify":1631889680182,"author":{"id":"3564909256585570","authorId":"3564909256585570","name":"Fengjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45987ca4f2ac62a210c20544200c49f9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564909256585570","idStr":"3564909256585570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gogogogo","listText":"gogogogo","text":"gogogogo","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70b32e7fdc9eebf1cdf125541fbd626","width":"750","height":"2455"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809590111","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800567095,"gmtCreate":1627308959417,"gmtModify":1631891892586,"author":{"id":"3564909256585570","authorId":"3564909256585570","name":"Fengjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45987ca4f2ac62a210c20544200c49f9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564909256585570","idStr":"3564909256585570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"赞","listText":"赞","text":"赞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800567095","repostId":"1126084586","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126084586","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627308266,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126084586?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 22:04","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"A股究竟要往何处去？大机构的最新解读来了！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126084586","media":"资本深潜号","summary":"7月26日，A股与港股齐唰唰大幅调整，13点30分后两市在指标股带领下出现V字反弹，终盘依然明显破位。\n盘中各种“茅”股大幅下挫：爱尔眼科最多下跌14%；五粮液盘中一度跌停；即便是今年至今最牛的“电池","content":"<p>7月26日，A股与港股齐唰唰大幅调整，13点30分后两市在指标股带领下出现V字反弹，终盘依然明显破位。</p>\n<p>盘中各种“茅”股大幅下挫：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300015\">爱尔眼科</a>最多下跌14%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">五粮液</a>盘中一度跌停；即便是今年至今最牛的“电池茅”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a97a5fd3e24e8ada9d272920748d63a\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"129\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8739a597164243adf6d91e9f622b5eff\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>究竟是什么样的情况突然导致了周一的普跌？</p>\n<p>从更长维度看又该如何看待A股的长期投资趋势？</p>\n<p>现在是机会，还是需要加强风控的时间窗口？</p>\n<p>包括南方基金、海富通基金、星石投资、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>晋信、融通基金、招商基金、浦银安盛、平安基金等十大买方和卖方机构的及时解读来了</p>\n<p><b>01、机构认知变化</b></p>\n<p>关于今日市场的调整，不少机构的分析都提及了前期政策面和消息面的“累积效应”。</p>\n<p>这些政策包括教育、房地产等领域的新变化，同时也有疫情、北向资金出现撤退等消息面的刺激。</p>\n<p>但最关键的还是机构的认知。</p>\n<p>此前就有分析师提到了机构认知在近几周的重要变化，包括对于政策基调、以及执行效率和速率的再认识，以及<b>未来国内进一步加大“兼顾公平”的力度后，各行业长期的纵深影响等</b>。</p>\n<p>一些观点认为，近期消息面总体蕴含着一个<b>中期趋势</b>，即“双碳”、反垄断、去杠杆、降风险、降低教育医疗住房支出，大力支持先进制造业、扶持中小微企业等会成为长期的主基调。在这种前提下，许多行业的中长期假设需要修正，机会和风险的判断要重新调整。</p>\n<p><b>02、事件扩大市场情绪</b></p>\n<p>从直接影响看，一些机构认为，短期事件放大了市场的情绪。</p>\n<p><b>汇丰晋信基金</b>首席宏观及策略师闵良超表示：近期多项事件叠加，扩大了今日（26日）市场恐慌情绪。</p>\n<p>他尤其提到，在教育培训行业相关行业或将长时间进入强监管时代后。市场额外预期，<b>以医美为代表的部分消费赛道或也将迎来进一步规范</b>，并有可能引发行业基本面变化和行业内部分化。</p>\n<p><b>融通基金</b>则分析认为，26日跌幅较大的板块，都是此前市场普遍认为具备护城河的板块，像刚需消费的医药、食品饮料，或者具有成瘾性消费的医美、游戏等板块，这些<b>板块前期累积了大量的涨幅，整体估值存在回调的需求。</b></p>\n<p>星石投资也谈到，普跌主要原因在于教育、房地产、疫情等多方面利空消息的刺激。</p>\n<p><b><b>03、</b></b><b>中期并不悲观</b></p>\n<p>不过，机构纷纷表示，在当前这个时点，并非没有机会，他们并不悲观。<b>有机构甚至认为只是长牛慢牛中的小调整。</b></p>\n<p>还有机构表示，某些行业基本面持续变强或者面临基本面拐点，估值合理或者被低估，往往短期市场的波动会带来更具吸引力的投资机会。</p>\n<p>星石投资表示，无论是在市场狂热还是在悲观中，都选择保持理性，<b>在当前这个时点，并非没有机会，认为只是长牛慢牛中的小调整。</b></p>\n<p>首先，星石投资认为当前市场忽视了本轮供给端强力出清下、通胀持续超预期的可能性，而通胀上行期往往顺周期资产表现更佳。关注回升空间大、修复趋于加速、能充分受益于涨价趋势的后周期方向，尤其是供需趋势向好的可选消费与服务行业。</p>\n<p>其次，从安全边际的角度，规避预期高度一致、充分定价的领域，控制组合市盈率水平，是面对震荡的较好方式。<b>当前股市高估值非周期资产和低估值顺周期资产的表现分化严重，</b>以沪深300和创业板指数为两类风格的代表，低估值顺周期类资产（通胀受益）相对于高估值非周期类资产（通胀受损）比价关系已经处于绝对低位，从历史数据来看在此区域产生均值回归的概率较大，意味着低估值顺周期类资产在后期的表现可能较优。</p>\n<p>融通基金也表示，<b>大跌无须过度悲观，全面降准或抬高市场震荡中枢。</b></p>\n<p>融通逆向策略基金经理刘安坤认为，央行的全面降准或是货币政策走向宽松的开始，年底前可能再次降准，宽货币的环境对权益资产会形成支撑。因此，他认为，全面降准可能抬高A股的震荡中枢，不必因技术调整过度悲观。</p>\n<p><b>浦银安盛</b>基金认为，这次调整可以看做是一次<b>因短期涨幅较多、情绪集中释放的过程</b>。而<b>宏观基本面、流动性、景气赛道产业趋势等都未发生变化</b>。</p>\n<p>展望后市，浦银安盛基金认为调整是事件性的，流动性偏宽松的条件下，A股出现系统性风险的概率较低。在风险短期释放后，对于未来的A股投资<b>保持谨慎乐观</b>的态度。</p>\n<p><b>南方基金</b>表示，宏观政策不急转弯的本质是紧信用宽货币。紧信用环境对于部分宏观经济敏感的行业会有所拖累，大盘价值风格会相对承压。宽货币环境则为市场提供了充裕的流动性，中小盘成长风格会更为受益。这一状态预计在下半年仍将维持。对于权益资产，<b>只要流动性没有风险，市场发生系统性风险的可能性就不大。</b></p>\n<p><b>04、科技、消费、医药是长期布局的主赛道</b></p>\n<p>对于未来，<b>汇丰晋信</b>研究总监基金经理陆彬表示：市场往往是有效的，从长期来看，市场也总是正确的。绝大多数时候，行业和股价的波动往往客观反应估值和基本面的变化。某些行业基本面边际恶化，估值在历史高位，一旦趋势的正循环被打破，反身性就会很明显。同时，<b>某些行业基本面持续变强或者面临基本面拐点，估值合理或者被低估，往往短期市场的波动会带来更具吸引力的投资机会。</b></p>\n<p>配置策略上，融通逆向策略基金经理刘安坤表示<b>新能源板块或仍处在不影响实际操作的技术调整中</b>，从博弈层面上看，或还有进一步上行的空间。此外，中报季期间，周期资源品（煤炭、钢铁、化工等）仍有一定反弹空间。非地产链的周期股，由于上半年的价格上涨，会集中表现出较强的中报业绩，虽然长期逻辑暂不确定，但短期或仍存在结构性机会。</p>\n<p><b>海富通</b>中小盘混合基金经理范庭芳表示，“当然我们说的接下来几个季度，如果看到明年或者后年，那可能也有一部分消费类资产，它分子端的表现会强于科技。但至少从目前这个时间看，下半年我们依旧认为科技要好于消费板块。”</p>\n<p>那些<b>符合国家转型升级需求的新兴行业，有望持续获得政策上的大力支持。</b>“所以我们也可以看到，即使在今天这种普跌的行情下，半导体、新能源汽车、光伏这些板块，还是比较抗跌的。”范庭芳说。</p>\n<p>南方基金表示，中短期而言，市场仍将以震荡为主基调，伴随着一定的结构性行情。值得注意的是，近期表现强势的新能源、周期等板块呈现一定的交易亢奋，需要适当注意热度抬升后波动率的放大。中长期而言，继续保持乐观，国内股市运行中枢逐年抬升的趋势非常明显，<b>科技、消费、医药是长期布局的主赛道。</b></p>\n<p><b>平安基金</b>称，考虑到经济周期变化和碳中和对未来行业的重要影响，短期建议关注:</p>\n<p>1、受益于价格上涨和经济复苏周期的周期板块(如机械、化工、有色等)；</p>\n<p>2、流动性宽松、政策支持、持续高景气的新能源汽车、光伏、半导体、新材料、军工等。</p>\n<p>长期内应持续关注受益于双循环的大消费行业、国家战略支持的大科技行业，精选业绩良好、估值合理的个股。</p>","source":"lsy1570542988954","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA股究竟要往何处去？大机构的最新解读来了！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-26 22:04 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/p8o6E28If8xsZ8qbdUvqVA><strong>资本深潜号</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月26日，A股与港股齐唰唰大幅调整，13点30分后两市在指标股带领下出现V字反弹，终盘依然明显破位。\n盘中各种“茅”股大幅下挫：爱尔眼科最多下跌14%；五粮液盘中一度跌停；即便是今年至今最牛的“电池茅”。\n\n究竟是什么样的情况突然导致了周一的普跌？\n从更长维度看又该如何看待A股的长期投资趋势？\n现在是机会，还是需要加强风控的时间窗口？\n包括南方基金、海富通基金、星石投资、汇丰晋信、融通基金、招商...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/p8o6E28If8xsZ8qbdUvqVA\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/p8o6E28If8xsZ8qbdUvqVA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126084586","content_text":"7月26日，A股与港股齐唰唰大幅调整，13点30分后两市在指标股带领下出现V字反弹，终盘依然明显破位。\n盘中各种“茅”股大幅下挫：爱尔眼科最多下跌14%；五粮液盘中一度跌停；即便是今年至今最牛的“电池茅”。\n\n究竟是什么样的情况突然导致了周一的普跌？\n从更长维度看又该如何看待A股的长期投资趋势？\n现在是机会，还是需要加强风控的时间窗口？\n包括南方基金、海富通基金、星石投资、汇丰晋信、融通基金、招商基金、浦银安盛、平安基金等十大买方和卖方机构的及时解读来了\n01、机构认知变化\n关于今日市场的调整，不少机构的分析都提及了前期政策面和消息面的“累积效应”。\n这些政策包括教育、房地产等领域的新变化，同时也有疫情、北向资金出现撤退等消息面的刺激。\n但最关键的还是机构的认知。\n此前就有分析师提到了机构认知在近几周的重要变化，包括对于政策基调、以及执行效率和速率的再认识，以及未来国内进一步加大“兼顾公平”的力度后，各行业长期的纵深影响等。\n一些观点认为，近期消息面总体蕴含着一个中期趋势，即“双碳”、反垄断、去杠杆、降风险、降低教育医疗住房支出，大力支持先进制造业、扶持中小微企业等会成为长期的主基调。在这种前提下，许多行业的中长期假设需要修正，机会和风险的判断要重新调整。\n02、事件扩大市场情绪\n从直接影响看，一些机构认为，短期事件放大了市场的情绪。\n汇丰晋信基金首席宏观及策略师闵良超表示：近期多项事件叠加，扩大了今日（26日）市场恐慌情绪。\n他尤其提到，在教育培训行业相关行业或将长时间进入强监管时代后。市场额外预期，以医美为代表的部分消费赛道或也将迎来进一步规范，并有可能引发行业基本面变化和行业内部分化。\n融通基金则分析认为，26日跌幅较大的板块，都是此前市场普遍认为具备护城河的板块，像刚需消费的医药、食品饮料，或者具有成瘾性消费的医美、游戏等板块，这些板块前期累积了大量的涨幅，整体估值存在回调的需求。\n星石投资也谈到，普跌主要原因在于教育、房地产、疫情等多方面利空消息的刺激。\n03、中期并不悲观\n不过，机构纷纷表示，在当前这个时点，并非没有机会，他们并不悲观。有机构甚至认为只是长牛慢牛中的小调整。\n还有机构表示，某些行业基本面持续变强或者面临基本面拐点，估值合理或者被低估，往往短期市场的波动会带来更具吸引力的投资机会。\n星石投资表示，无论是在市场狂热还是在悲观中，都选择保持理性，在当前这个时点，并非没有机会，认为只是长牛慢牛中的小调整。\n首先，星石投资认为当前市场忽视了本轮供给端强力出清下、通胀持续超预期的可能性，而通胀上行期往往顺周期资产表现更佳。关注回升空间大、修复趋于加速、能充分受益于涨价趋势的后周期方向，尤其是供需趋势向好的可选消费与服务行业。\n其次，从安全边际的角度，规避预期高度一致、充分定价的领域，控制组合市盈率水平，是面对震荡的较好方式。当前股市高估值非周期资产和低估值顺周期资产的表现分化严重，以沪深300和创业板指数为两类风格的代表，低估值顺周期类资产（通胀受益）相对于高估值非周期类资产（通胀受损）比价关系已经处于绝对低位，从历史数据来看在此区域产生均值回归的概率较大，意味着低估值顺周期类资产在后期的表现可能较优。\n融通基金也表示，大跌无须过度悲观，全面降准或抬高市场震荡中枢。\n融通逆向策略基金经理刘安坤认为，央行的全面降准或是货币政策走向宽松的开始，年底前可能再次降准，宽货币的环境对权益资产会形成支撑。因此，他认为，全面降准可能抬高A股的震荡中枢，不必因技术调整过度悲观。\n浦银安盛基金认为，这次调整可以看做是一次因短期涨幅较多、情绪集中释放的过程。而宏观基本面、流动性、景气赛道产业趋势等都未发生变化。\n展望后市，浦银安盛基金认为调整是事件性的，流动性偏宽松的条件下，A股出现系统性风险的概率较低。在风险短期释放后，对于未来的A股投资保持谨慎乐观的态度。\n南方基金表示，宏观政策不急转弯的本质是紧信用宽货币。紧信用环境对于部分宏观经济敏感的行业会有所拖累，大盘价值风格会相对承压。宽货币环境则为市场提供了充裕的流动性，中小盘成长风格会更为受益。这一状态预计在下半年仍将维持。对于权益资产，只要流动性没有风险，市场发生系统性风险的可能性就不大。\n04、科技、消费、医药是长期布局的主赛道\n对于未来，汇丰晋信研究总监基金经理陆彬表示：市场往往是有效的，从长期来看，市场也总是正确的。绝大多数时候，行业和股价的波动往往客观反应估值和基本面的变化。某些行业基本面边际恶化，估值在历史高位，一旦趋势的正循环被打破，反身性就会很明显。同时，某些行业基本面持续变强或者面临基本面拐点，估值合理或者被低估，往往短期市场的波动会带来更具吸引力的投资机会。\n配置策略上，融通逆向策略基金经理刘安坤表示新能源板块或仍处在不影响实际操作的技术调整中，从博弈层面上看，或还有进一步上行的空间。此外，中报季期间，周期资源品（煤炭、钢铁、化工等）仍有一定反弹空间。非地产链的周期股，由于上半年的价格上涨，会集中表现出较强的中报业绩，虽然长期逻辑暂不确定，但短期或仍存在结构性机会。\n海富通中小盘混合基金经理范庭芳表示，“当然我们说的接下来几个季度，如果看到明年或者后年，那可能也有一部分消费类资产，它分子端的表现会强于科技。但至少从目前这个时间看，下半年我们依旧认为科技要好于消费板块。”\n那些符合国家转型升级需求的新兴行业，有望持续获得政策上的大力支持。“所以我们也可以看到，即使在今天这种普跌的行情下，半导体、新能源汽车、光伏这些板块，还是比较抗跌的。”范庭芳说。\n南方基金表示，中短期而言，市场仍将以震荡为主基调，伴随着一定的结构性行情。值得注意的是，近期表现强势的新能源、周期等板块呈现一定的交易亢奋，需要适当注意热度抬升后波动率的放大。中长期而言，继续保持乐观，国内股市运行中枢逐年抬升的趋势非常明显，科技、消费、医药是长期布局的主赛道。\n平安基金称，考虑到经济周期变化和碳中和对未来行业的重要影响，短期建议关注:\n1、受益于价格上涨和经济复苏周期的周期板块(如机械、化工、有色等)；\n2、流动性宽松、政策支持、持续高景气的新能源汽车、光伏、半导体、新材料、军工等。\n长期内应持续关注受益于双循环的大消费行业、国家战略支持的大科技行业，精选业绩良好、估值合理的个股。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":800568292,"gmtCreate":1627308886716,"gmtModify":1631891892733,"author":{"id":"3564909256585570","authorId":"3564909256585570","name":"Fengjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45987ca4f2ac62a210c20544200c49f9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564909256585570","idStr":"3564909256585570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"赞","listText":"赞","text":"赞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800568292","repostId":"1107544029","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":174765775,"gmtCreate":1627141628997,"gmtModify":1631891892533,"author":{"id":"3564909256585570","authorId":"3564909256585570","name":"Fengjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45987ca4f2ac62a210c20544200c49f9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564909256585570","idStr":"3564909256585570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"赞","listText":"赞","text":"赞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174765775","repostId":"2153809933","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":175820504,"gmtCreate":1627023785308,"gmtModify":1631888847712,"author":{"id":"3564909256585570","authorId":"3564909256585570","name":"Fengjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45987ca4f2ac62a210c20544200c49f9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":fa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19:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国航空：Q2营收75亿美元，净利润0.19亿美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102457312","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月22日，美国航空集团盘前发布财报，财报显示：2021年Q2营收75亿美元，市场预期72.03亿美元，去年同期16.22亿美元。\nQ2 净利润0.19亿美元,市场预期-8.76亿美元，去年同期-20","content":"<p>7月22日，美国航空集团盘前发布财报，财报显示：2021年Q2营收75亿美元，市场预期72.03亿美元，去年同期16.22亿美元。</p>\n<p>Q2 净利润0.19亿美元,市场预期-8.76亿美元，去年同期-20.67亿美元。</p>\n<p>Q2每股盈利0.03美元，市场预期亏损0.88美元，去年同期亏损4.82美元。</p>\n<p>美国航空集团：预计Q3营收较2019年下滑约20%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00805b578497154f5840530cf3993494\" tg-width=\"1091\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">财报发布后，美国航空集团盘前微跌。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622085da8dc31cc52511f9c6d45785f1\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国航空：Q2营收75亿美元，净利润0.19亿美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-22 19:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>7月22日，美国航空集团盘前发布财报，财报显示：2021年Q2营收75亿美元，市场预期72.03亿美元，去年同期16.22亿美元。</p>\n<p>Q2 净利润0.19亿美元,市场预期-8.76亿美元，去年同期-20.67亿美元。</p>\n<p>Q2每股盈利0.03美元，市场预期亏损0.88美元，去年同期亏损4.82美元。</p>\n<p>美国航空集团：预计Q3营收较2019年下滑约20%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00805b578497154f5840530cf3993494\" tg-width=\"1091\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">财报发布后，美国航空集团盘前微跌。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622085da8dc31cc52511f9c6d45785f1\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/411c6ea7e969aee81c7c240d3341abef","relate_stocks":{"AAL":"美国航空"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102457312","content_text":"7月22日，美国航空集团盘前发布财报，财报显示：2021年Q2营收75亿美元，市场预期72.03亿美元，去年同期16.22亿美元。\nQ2 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22:04","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"A股究竟要往何处去？大机构的最新解读来了！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126084586","media":"资本深潜号","summary":"7月26日，A股与港股齐唰唰大幅调整，13点30分后两市在指标股带领下出现V字反弹，终盘依然明显破位。\n盘中各种“茅”股大幅下挫：爱尔眼科最多下跌14%；五粮液盘中一度跌停；即便是今年至今最牛的“电池","content":"<p>7月26日，A股与港股齐唰唰大幅调整，13点30分后两市在指标股带领下出现V字反弹，终盘依然明显破位。</p>\n<p>盘中各种“茅”股大幅下挫：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300015\">爱尔眼科</a>最多下跌14%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">五粮液</a>盘中一度跌停；即便是今年至今最牛的“电池茅”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a97a5fd3e24e8ada9d272920748d63a\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"129\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8739a597164243adf6d91e9f622b5eff\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>究竟是什么样的情况突然导致了周一的普跌？</p>\n<p>从更长维度看又该如何看待A股的长期投资趋势？</p>\n<p>现在是机会，还是需要加强风控的时间窗口？</p>\n<p>包括南方基金、海富通基金、星石投资、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>晋信、融通基金、招商基金、浦银安盛、平安基金等十大买方和卖方机构的及时解读来了</p>\n<p><b>01、机构认知变化</b></p>\n<p>关于今日市场的调整，不少机构的分析都提及了前期政策面和消息面的“累积效应”。</p>\n<p>这些政策包括教育、房地产等领域的新变化，同时也有疫情、北向资金出现撤退等消息面的刺激。</p>\n<p>但最关键的还是机构的认知。</p>\n<p>此前就有分析师提到了机构认知在近几周的重要变化，包括对于政策基调、以及执行效率和速率的再认识，以及<b>未来国内进一步加大“兼顾公平”的力度后，各行业长期的纵深影响等</b>。</p>\n<p>一些观点认为，近期消息面总体蕴含着一个<b>中期趋势</b>，即“双碳”、反垄断、去杠杆、降风险、降低教育医疗住房支出，大力支持先进制造业、扶持中小微企业等会成为长期的主基调。在这种前提下，许多行业的中长期假设需要修正，机会和风险的判断要重新调整。</p>\n<p><b>02、事件扩大市场情绪</b></p>\n<p>从直接影响看，一些机构认为，短期事件放大了市场的情绪。</p>\n<p><b>汇丰晋信基金</b>首席宏观及策略师闵良超表示：近期多项事件叠加，扩大了今日（26日）市场恐慌情绪。</p>\n<p>他尤其提到，在教育培训行业相关行业或将长时间进入强监管时代后。市场额外预期，<b>以医美为代表的部分消费赛道或也将迎来进一步规范</b>，并有可能引发行业基本面变化和行业内部分化。</p>\n<p><b>融通基金</b>则分析认为，26日跌幅较大的板块，都是此前市场普遍认为具备护城河的板块，像刚需消费的医药、食品饮料，或者具有成瘾性消费的医美、游戏等板块，这些<b>板块前期累积了大量的涨幅，整体估值存在回调的需求。</b></p>\n<p>星石投资也谈到，普跌主要原因在于教育、房地产、疫情等多方面利空消息的刺激。</p>\n<p><b><b>03、</b></b><b>中期并不悲观</b></p>\n<p>不过，机构纷纷表示，在当前这个时点，并非没有机会，他们并不悲观。<b>有机构甚至认为只是长牛慢牛中的小调整。</b></p>\n<p>还有机构表示，某些行业基本面持续变强或者面临基本面拐点，估值合理或者被低估，往往短期市场的波动会带来更具吸引力的投资机会。</p>\n<p>星石投资表示，无论是在市场狂热还是在悲观中，都选择保持理性，<b>在当前这个时点，并非没有机会，认为只是长牛慢牛中的小调整。</b></p>\n<p>首先，星石投资认为当前市场忽视了本轮供给端强力出清下、通胀持续超预期的可能性，而通胀上行期往往顺周期资产表现更佳。关注回升空间大、修复趋于加速、能充分受益于涨价趋势的后周期方向，尤其是供需趋势向好的可选消费与服务行业。</p>\n<p>其次，从安全边际的角度，规避预期高度一致、充分定价的领域，控制组合市盈率水平，是面对震荡的较好方式。<b>当前股市高估值非周期资产和低估值顺周期资产的表现分化严重，</b>以沪深300和创业板指数为两类风格的代表，低估值顺周期类资产（通胀受益）相对于高估值非周期类资产（通胀受损）比价关系已经处于绝对低位，从历史数据来看在此区域产生均值回归的概率较大，意味着低估值顺周期类资产在后期的表现可能较优。</p>\n<p>融通基金也表示，<b>大跌无须过度悲观，全面降准或抬高市场震荡中枢。</b></p>\n<p>融通逆向策略基金经理刘安坤认为，央行的全面降准或是货币政策走向宽松的开始，年底前可能再次降准，宽货币的环境对权益资产会形成支撑。因此，他认为，全面降准可能抬高A股的震荡中枢，不必因技术调整过度悲观。</p>\n<p><b>浦银安盛</b>基金认为，这次调整可以看做是一次<b>因短期涨幅较多、情绪集中释放的过程</b>。而<b>宏观基本面、流动性、景气赛道产业趋势等都未发生变化</b>。</p>\n<p>展望后市，浦银安盛基金认为调整是事件性的，流动性偏宽松的条件下，A股出现系统性风险的概率较低。在风险短期释放后，对于未来的A股投资<b>保持谨慎乐观</b>的态度。</p>\n<p><b>南方基金</b>表示，宏观政策不急转弯的本质是紧信用宽货币。紧信用环境对于部分宏观经济敏感的行业会有所拖累，大盘价值风格会相对承压。宽货币环境则为市场提供了充裕的流动性，中小盘成长风格会更为受益。这一状态预计在下半年仍将维持。对于权益资产，<b>只要流动性没有风险，市场发生系统性风险的可能性就不大。</b></p>\n<p><b>04、科技、消费、医药是长期布局的主赛道</b></p>\n<p>对于未来，<b>汇丰晋信</b>研究总监基金经理陆彬表示：市场往往是有效的，从长期来看，市场也总是正确的。绝大多数时候，行业和股价的波动往往客观反应估值和基本面的变化。某些行业基本面边际恶化，估值在历史高位，一旦趋势的正循环被打破，反身性就会很明显。同时，<b>某些行业基本面持续变强或者面临基本面拐点，估值合理或者被低估，往往短期市场的波动会带来更具吸引力的投资机会。</b></p>\n<p>配置策略上，融通逆向策略基金经理刘安坤表示<b>新能源板块或仍处在不影响实际操作的技术调整中</b>，从博弈层面上看，或还有进一步上行的空间。此外，中报季期间，周期资源品（煤炭、钢铁、化工等）仍有一定反弹空间。非地产链的周期股，由于上半年的价格上涨，会集中表现出较强的中报业绩，虽然长期逻辑暂不确定，但短期或仍存在结构性机会。</p>\n<p><b>海富通</b>中小盘混合基金经理范庭芳表示，“当然我们说的接下来几个季度，如果看到明年或者后年，那可能也有一部分消费类资产，它分子端的表现会强于科技。但至少从目前这个时间看，下半年我们依旧认为科技要好于消费板块。”</p>\n<p>那些<b>符合国家转型升级需求的新兴行业，有望持续获得政策上的大力支持。</b>“所以我们也可以看到，即使在今天这种普跌的行情下，半导体、新能源汽车、光伏这些板块，还是比较抗跌的。”范庭芳说。</p>\n<p>南方基金表示，中短期而言，市场仍将以震荡为主基调，伴随着一定的结构性行情。值得注意的是，近期表现强势的新能源、周期等板块呈现一定的交易亢奋，需要适当注意热度抬升后波动率的放大。中长期而言，继续保持乐观，国内股市运行中枢逐年抬升的趋势非常明显，<b>科技、消费、医药是长期布局的主赛道。</b></p>\n<p><b>平安基金</b>称，考虑到经济周期变化和碳中和对未来行业的重要影响，短期建议关注:</p>\n<p>1、受益于价格上涨和经济复苏周期的周期板块(如机械、化工、有色等)；</p>\n<p>2、流动性宽松、政策支持、持续高景气的新能源汽车、光伏、半导体、新材料、军工等。</p>\n<p>长期内应持续关注受益于双循环的大消费行业、国家战略支持的大科技行业，精选业绩良好、估值合理的个股。</p>","source":"lsy1570542988954","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA股究竟要往何处去？大机构的最新解读来了！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-26 22:04 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/p8o6E28If8xsZ8qbdUvqVA><strong>资本深潜号</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月26日，A股与港股齐唰唰大幅调整，13点30分后两市在指标股带领下出现V字反弹，终盘依然明显破位。\n盘中各种“茅”股大幅下挫：爱尔眼科最多下跌14%；五粮液盘中一度跌停；即便是今年至今最牛的“电池茅”。\n\n究竟是什么样的情况突然导致了周一的普跌？\n从更长维度看又该如何看待A股的长期投资趋势？\n现在是机会，还是需要加强风控的时间窗口？\n包括南方基金、海富通基金、星石投资、汇丰晋信、融通基金、招商...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/p8o6E28If8xsZ8qbdUvqVA\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/p8o6E28If8xsZ8qbdUvqVA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126084586","content_text":"7月26日，A股与港股齐唰唰大幅调整，13点30分后两市在指标股带领下出现V字反弹，终盘依然明显破位。\n盘中各种“茅”股大幅下挫：爱尔眼科最多下跌14%；五粮液盘中一度跌停；即便是今年至今最牛的“电池茅”。\n\n究竟是什么样的情况突然导致了周一的普跌？\n从更长维度看又该如何看待A股的长期投资趋势？\n现在是机会，还是需要加强风控的时间窗口？\n包括南方基金、海富通基金、星石投资、汇丰晋信、融通基金、招商基金、浦银安盛、平安基金等十大买方和卖方机构的及时解读来了\n01、机构认知变化\n关于今日市场的调整，不少机构的分析都提及了前期政策面和消息面的“累积效应”。\n这些政策包括教育、房地产等领域的新变化，同时也有疫情、北向资金出现撤退等消息面的刺激。\n但最关键的还是机构的认知。\n此前就有分析师提到了机构认知在近几周的重要变化，包括对于政策基调、以及执行效率和速率的再认识，以及未来国内进一步加大“兼顾公平”的力度后，各行业长期的纵深影响等。\n一些观点认为，近期消息面总体蕴含着一个中期趋势，即“双碳”、反垄断、去杠杆、降风险、降低教育医疗住房支出，大力支持先进制造业、扶持中小微企业等会成为长期的主基调。在这种前提下，许多行业的中长期假设需要修正，机会和风险的判断要重新调整。\n02、事件扩大市场情绪\n从直接影响看，一些机构认为，短期事件放大了市场的情绪。\n汇丰晋信基金首席宏观及策略师闵良超表示：近期多项事件叠加，扩大了今日（26日）市场恐慌情绪。\n他尤其提到，在教育培训行业相关行业或将长时间进入强监管时代后。市场额外预期，以医美为代表的部分消费赛道或也将迎来进一步规范，并有可能引发行业基本面变化和行业内部分化。\n融通基金则分析认为，26日跌幅较大的板块，都是此前市场普遍认为具备护城河的板块，像刚需消费的医药、食品饮料，或者具有成瘾性消费的医美、游戏等板块，这些板块前期累积了大量的涨幅，整体估值存在回调的需求。\n星石投资也谈到，普跌主要原因在于教育、房地产、疫情等多方面利空消息的刺激。\n03、中期并不悲观\n不过，机构纷纷表示，在当前这个时点，并非没有机会，他们并不悲观。有机构甚至认为只是长牛慢牛中的小调整。\n还有机构表示，某些行业基本面持续变强或者面临基本面拐点，估值合理或者被低估，往往短期市场的波动会带来更具吸引力的投资机会。\n星石投资表示，无论是在市场狂热还是在悲观中，都选择保持理性，在当前这个时点，并非没有机会，认为只是长牛慢牛中的小调整。\n首先，星石投资认为当前市场忽视了本轮供给端强力出清下、通胀持续超预期的可能性，而通胀上行期往往顺周期资产表现更佳。关注回升空间大、修复趋于加速、能充分受益于涨价趋势的后周期方向，尤其是供需趋势向好的可选消费与服务行业。\n其次，从安全边际的角度，规避预期高度一致、充分定价的领域，控制组合市盈率水平，是面对震荡的较好方式。当前股市高估值非周期资产和低估值顺周期资产的表现分化严重，以沪深300和创业板指数为两类风格的代表，低估值顺周期类资产（通胀受益）相对于高估值非周期类资产（通胀受损）比价关系已经处于绝对低位，从历史数据来看在此区域产生均值回归的概率较大，意味着低估值顺周期类资产在后期的表现可能较优。\n融通基金也表示，大跌无须过度悲观，全面降准或抬高市场震荡中枢。\n融通逆向策略基金经理刘安坤认为，央行的全面降准或是货币政策走向宽松的开始，年底前可能再次降准，宽货币的环境对权益资产会形成支撑。因此，他认为，全面降准可能抬高A股的震荡中枢，不必因技术调整过度悲观。\n浦银安盛基金认为，这次调整可以看做是一次因短期涨幅较多、情绪集中释放的过程。而宏观基本面、流动性、景气赛道产业趋势等都未发生变化。\n展望后市，浦银安盛基金认为调整是事件性的，流动性偏宽松的条件下，A股出现系统性风险的概率较低。在风险短期释放后，对于未来的A股投资保持谨慎乐观的态度。\n南方基金表示，宏观政策不急转弯的本质是紧信用宽货币。紧信用环境对于部分宏观经济敏感的行业会有所拖累，大盘价值风格会相对承压。宽货币环境则为市场提供了充裕的流动性，中小盘成长风格会更为受益。这一状态预计在下半年仍将维持。对于权益资产，只要流动性没有风险，市场发生系统性风险的可能性就不大。\n04、科技、消费、医药是长期布局的主赛道\n对于未来，汇丰晋信研究总监基金经理陆彬表示：市场往往是有效的，从长期来看，市场也总是正确的。绝大多数时候，行业和股价的波动往往客观反应估值和基本面的变化。某些行业基本面边际恶化，估值在历史高位，一旦趋势的正循环被打破，反身性就会很明显。同时，某些行业基本面持续变强或者面临基本面拐点，估值合理或者被低估，往往短期市场的波动会带来更具吸引力的投资机会。\n配置策略上，融通逆向策略基金经理刘安坤表示新能源板块或仍处在不影响实际操作的技术调整中，从博弈层面上看，或还有进一步上行的空间。此外，中报季期间，周期资源品（煤炭、钢铁、化工等）仍有一定反弹空间。非地产链的周期股，由于上半年的价格上涨，会集中表现出较强的中报业绩，虽然长期逻辑暂不确定，但短期或仍存在结构性机会。\n海富通中小盘混合基金经理范庭芳表示，“当然我们说的接下来几个季度，如果看到明年或者后年，那可能也有一部分消费类资产，它分子端的表现会强于科技。但至少从目前这个时间看，下半年我们依旧认为科技要好于消费板块。”\n那些符合国家转型升级需求的新兴行业，有望持续获得政策上的大力支持。“所以我们也可以看到，即使在今天这种普跌的行情下，半导体、新能源汽车、光伏这些板块，还是比较抗跌的。”范庭芳说。\n南方基金表示，中短期而言，市场仍将以震荡为主基调，伴随着一定的结构性行情。值得注意的是，近期表现强势的新能源、周期等板块呈现一定的交易亢奋，需要适当注意热度抬升后波动率的放大。中长期而言，继续保持乐观，国内股市运行中枢逐年抬升的趋势非常明显，科技、消费、医药是长期布局的主赛道。\n平安基金称，考虑到经济周期变化和碳中和对未来行业的重要影响，短期建议关注:\n1、受益于价格上涨和经济复苏周期的周期板块(如机械、化工、有色等)；\n2、流动性宽松、政策支持、持续高景气的新能源汽车、光伏、半导体、新材料、军工等。\n长期内应持续关注受益于双循环的大消费行业、国家战略支持的大科技行业，精选业绩良好、估值合理的个股。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":178088563,"gmtCreate":1626772167152,"gmtModify":1631891892596,"author":{"id":"3564909256585570","authorId":"3564909256585570","name":"Fengjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45987ca4f2ac62a210c20544200c49f9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564909256585570","authorIdStr":"3564909256585570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178088563","repostId":"1183044759","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":159141221,"gmtCreate":1624951563563,"gmtModify":1631891892610,"author":{"id":"3564909256585570","authorId":"3564909256585570","name":"Fengjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45987ca4f2ac62a210c20544200c49f9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564909256585570","authorIdStr":"3564909256585570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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