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2021-06-18

When this post is posted. Stock will goes down.

NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来赢了</blockquote>

2021-09-02

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2021-02-26

When there are news especially at financial report day, many wil sell. Hahaha. $NIO Inc.(NIO)$

Why NIO Stock Dropped Thursday<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价周四下跌</blockquote>

2021-10-09

jo//@STSS:Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

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2021-02-10

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Let's go

2021-02-23

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Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们在泡沫里吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价 2021 年股市</blockquote>

2021-02-09

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Forecasted target price. Yes or no?

2021-02-09

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$getting there? But why the low price so low.

2021-07-24

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Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-02-22

good to invest it//@Jordathj:Sounds good for decades

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would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":23,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812660053","repostId":"2164844008","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174276142,"gmtCreate":1627106573886,"gmtModify":1633767891376,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174276142","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期导向的投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。届时特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比，它似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期导向的投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。届时特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比，它似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4075,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159515235,"gmtCreate":1624974147927,"gmtModify":1633946340667,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>this is the closest PT from WSJ.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>this is the closest PT from WSJ.&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$this is the closest PT from WSJ.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f843547e220468b32b20b209d75930ea","width":"1080","height":"2400"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159515235","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166506077,"gmtCreate":1624015414399,"gmtModify":1634024101532,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"When this post is posted. Stock will goes down.&nbsp;","listText":"When this post is posted. Stock will goes down.&nbsp;","text":"When this post is posted. Stock will goes down.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":54,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166506077","repostId":"1148576248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148576248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623979883,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148576248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来赢了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc.  stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比特斯拉快，然而，它的交易价格却打折了。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）以其强大的市场地位——中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长且竞争激烈的电动汽车行业中的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来能够战胜一些激烈的竞争，包括特斯拉（TSLA）。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们还将讨论蔚来汽车的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己的明智决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位在高端SUV细分市场，专注于具有差异化电池战略的智能电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统【NOMI】，与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等不相上下。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借 ES8 的巨大成功所带来的安装基础和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了 ES6 和 EC6。最近，该公司推出了其首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>如今，蔚来是4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，市场份额为23%，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）的7%。中国汽车技术研究中心数据。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，它几乎消除了里程焦虑，这是大规模电动汽车采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个换电站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池更换策略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务 [BaaS] 解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约 11,000 美元。由于成本是大规模电动汽车采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来汽车的电池战略似乎非常出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层通过在2016年推出EP9出色地打造了这一品牌。六辆 EP9 已以 250 万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特性和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来通过ES8瞄准大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为它们生产低质量产品的看法作斗争。这与二战后日本企业战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是打破“中国制造”等同于低质量观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固地坚持这种旧观念的投资者将会错过投资世界上有史以来最伟大的品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着得到一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括收费货车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国大陆的客户服务方面声誉不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在通过蔚来之家（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品）进一步突破界限。蔚来围绕汽车构建生活方式的努力似乎正在奏效。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为要想逃离汽车代工厂的竞争战场，唯一的办法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利（赛车）营业利润率远高于 20%，而福特 (F) 和通用汽车 (GM) 则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计 2021 年 EBITDA 为负 2.58 亿美元，2022 年为正 2.06 亿美元。自由现金流预计在2021年为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计 2021 年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到安心，因为该公司在 2020 年退出时拥有 59 亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括 6 亿美元的短期投资，减去约 21 亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及 2021 年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在 2021 年退出时应该拥有超过 40 亿美元的净现金和投资。这是充足的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在 2022 年产生正自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注未来的电动汽车/销售倍数，这是尚未盈利的高速增长公司的典型情况。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为电动汽车/销售额的7至8倍，然后在2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，蔚来汽车的估值在2021年1月飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的远期销售额要合理得多。尽管增长速度是 TSLA 10.2 倍，但这比 TSLA 10.2 倍的电动汽车/销量大幅折扣（TSLA 预计 2021 年收入将增长 57%，而蔚来汽车为 117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来存在许多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其电池更换战略高度差异化，并且似乎正在快速增长，但电池更换或快速充电基础设施的最终市场份额仍然没有定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池更换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式具有创新性和新颖性。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然无利可图。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力提高之前，蔚来仍将是一个“给我看”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来汽车的全球扩张能力可能会受到中美地缘政治紧张局势的限制，以及在较小程度上与日本和欧洲的地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临着严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度不断增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服ICE原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和中国比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其汽车和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也在变得越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于蔚来汽车更快的增长率和较低的市盈率，其股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来赢了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来赢了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比特斯拉快，然而，它的交易价格却打折了。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）以其强大的市场地位——中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长且竞争激烈的电动汽车行业中的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来能够战胜一些激烈的竞争，包括特斯拉（TSLA）。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们还将讨论蔚来汽车的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己的明智决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位在高端SUV细分市场，专注于具有差异化电池战略的智能电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统【NOMI】，与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等不相上下。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借 ES8 的巨大成功所带来的安装基础和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了 ES6 和 EC6。最近，该公司推出了其首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>如今，蔚来是4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，市场份额为23%，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）的7%。中国汽车技术研究中心数据。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，它几乎消除了里程焦虑，这是大规模电动汽车采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个换电站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池更换策略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务 [BaaS] 解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约 11,000 美元。由于成本是大规模电动汽车采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来汽车的电池战略似乎非常出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层通过在2016年推出EP9出色地打造了这一品牌。六辆 EP9 已以 250 万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特性和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来通过ES8瞄准大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为它们生产低质量产品的看法作斗争。这与二战后日本企业战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是打破“中国制造”等同于低质量观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固地坚持这种旧观念的投资者将会错过投资世界上有史以来最伟大的品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着得到一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括收费货车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国大陆的客户服务方面声誉不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在通过蔚来之家（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品）进一步突破界限。蔚来围绕汽车构建生活方式的努力似乎正在奏效。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为要想逃离汽车代工厂的竞争战场，唯一的办法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利（赛车）营业利润率远高于 20%，而福特 (F) 和通用汽车 (GM) 则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计 2021 年 EBITDA 为负 2.58 亿美元，2022 年为正 2.06 亿美元。自由现金流预计在2021年为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计 2021 年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到安心，因为该公司在 2020 年退出时拥有 59 亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括 6 亿美元的短期投资，减去约 21 亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及 2021 年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在 2021 年退出时应该拥有超过 40 亿美元的净现金和投资。这是充足的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在 2022 年产生正自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注未来的电动汽车/销售倍数，这是尚未盈利的高速增长公司的典型情况。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为电动汽车/销售额的7至8倍，然后在2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，蔚来汽车的估值在2021年1月飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的远期销售额要合理得多。尽管增长速度是 TSLA 10.2 倍，但这比 TSLA 10.2 倍的电动汽车/销量大幅折扣（TSLA 预计 2021 年收入将增长 57%，而蔚来汽车为 117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来存在许多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其电池更换战略高度差异化，并且似乎正在快速增长，但电池更换或快速充电基础设施的最终市场份额仍然没有定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池更换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式具有创新性和新颖性。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然无利可图。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力提高之前，蔚来仍将是一个“给我看”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来汽车的全球扩张能力可能会受到中美地缘政治紧张局势的限制，以及在较小程度上与日本和欧洲的地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临着严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度不断增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服ICE原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和中国比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其汽车和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也在变得越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于蔚来汽车更快的增长率和较低的市盈率，其股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186043122,"gmtCreate":1623466789166,"gmtModify":1634032781562,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186043122","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1156453091?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是<b>从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示：</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186049540,"gmtCreate":1623466759480,"gmtModify":1634032782126,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186049540","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1140839418","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623382205,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1140839418?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"一张图读懂滴滴招股书：遍布15国，日均单量4100万","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140839418","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，$滴滴出行 $的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。","content":"<p>6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴出行</a>的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。</p>\n<p>根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母I，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查</a> 了解）<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<p></p>","source":"txkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一张图读懂滴滴招股书：遍布15国，日均单量4100万</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一张图读懂滴滴招股书：遍布15国，日均单量4100万\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 11:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800><strong>腾讯科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140839418","content_text":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。\n\n\n恭喜您找到了字母I，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130309688,"gmtCreate":1621509172844,"gmtModify":1634188575656,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130309688","repostId":"197705169","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":197705169,"gmtCreate":1621483624051,"gmtModify":1784257422812,"author":{"id":"3461111818041475","authorId":"3461111818041475","name":"少帅Pro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22d11e2c326fbab8693d00a9f4a85d25","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3461111818041475","idStr":"3461111818041475"},"themes":[],"title":"佟丽娅和小米都有光明的未来","htmlText":"今天佟丽娅和陈思成官宣离婚，网上一片叫好和祝福。向前看，<a 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for the best","listText":"hope for the best","text":"hope for the best","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195981020","repostId":"196928409","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":196928409,"gmtCreate":1621006666601,"gmtModify":1621021151684,"author":{"id":"3461111818041475","authorId":"3461111818041475","name":"少帅Pro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22d11e2c326fbab8693d00a9f4a85d25","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3461111818041475","idStr":"3461111818041475"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"今晚行情这么好，是币圈的朋友获利后，来支援股市了吗？祝:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSAC\">$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIH\">$医美国际(AIH)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">$富途控股(FUTU)$</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">$高途(GOTU)$</a>TO THE MOON~","listText":"今晚行情这么好，是币圈的朋友获利后，来支援股市了吗？祝:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSAC\">$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIH\">$医美国际(AIH)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">$富途控股(FUTU)$</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">$高途(GOTU)$</a>TO THE MOON~","text":"今晚行情这么好，是币圈的朋友获利后，来支援股市了吗？祝:$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$、$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$、$医美国际(AIH)$$富途控股(FUTU)$、$高途(GOTU)$TO THE MOON~","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf20a0c68b26d4723f5a34df05235a67","width":"1080","height":"662"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196928409","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2929,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196032194,"gmtCreate":1620999099418,"gmtModify":1631886457610,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INND\">$Innerscope Hearing Technologies, Inc.(INND)$</a> rip","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INND\">$Innerscope Hearing Technologies, Inc.(INND)$</a> rip","text":"$Innerscope Hearing Technologies, Inc.(INND)$ rip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196032194","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104631772,"gmtCreate":1620382874896,"gmtModify":1634205637694,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bad sign","listText":"Bad sign","text":"Bad sign","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104631772","repostId":"2133157807","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106583432,"gmtCreate":1620134141926,"gmtModify":1631886936524,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"05/04/21","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> Gaps down pre-market after the overall market takes a nice gap down testing lower demand areas. Bullish levels: if we can breakout over 681 and especially over 688. Bearish levels: if levels go below 702 and especially below 672 (watch the selling pressure and watch previous support points for any bounce or break) <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PRPO\">$Precipio, Inc.(PRPO)$</a> PRPO Gap higher pre-market over 10% after announcing their rapid covid-19 antibody test on Amazon. Bullish levels: if it can break out over 7.5 (with confirmation of continuation) Bearish levels: If it breaks below 5.5 and especially lower (watch selling pressure) <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COCP\">$Cocrystal </a>","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> Gaps down pre-market after the overall market takes a nice gap down testing lower demand areas. Bullish levels: if we can breakout over 681 and especially over 688. Bearish levels: if levels go below 702 and especially below 672 (watch the selling pressure and watch previous support points for any bounce or break) <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PRPO\">$Precipio, Inc.(PRPO)$</a> PRPO Gap higher pre-market over 10% after announcing their rapid covid-19 antibody test on Amazon. Bullish levels: if it can break out over 7.5 (with confirmation of continuation) Bearish levels: If it breaks below 5.5 and especially lower (watch selling pressure) <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COCP\">$Cocrystal </a>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Gaps down pre-market after the overall market takes a nice gap down testing lower demand areas. Bullish levels: if we can breakout over 681 and especially over 688. Bearish levels: if levels go below 702 and especially below 672 (watch the selling pressure and watch previous support points for any bounce or break) $Precipio, Inc.(PRPO)$ PRPO Gap higher pre-market over 10% after announcing their rapid covid-19 antibody test on Amazon. Bullish levels: if it can break out over 7.5 (with confirmation of continuation) Bearish levels: If it breaks below 5.5 and especially lower (watch selling pressure) $Cocrystal","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106583432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1972,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106580611,"gmtCreate":1620133968233,"gmtModify":1631888437215,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"05/04/21","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$Pfizer(PFE)$</a>Gaps up pre-market after Pfizer raised its sales forecasted for Covid-19 vaccine (it co-developed with Germany's BNTXO). Bullish levels: will be after breaking over levels 40.65 (short term) resistance. Bearish levels: will be if we break below 40 (watch selling pressure and especially if supports break)$Twitter(TWTR)$&nbsp;Gaps pre pre-market after Elliott Management had picked up $200 million worth of the company's stock. Bullish levels: will be if we breakout over 55.6 (watch for confirmation) Bearish levels: will be below 54.4 (watch selling pressure and especially if the support ends up breaking lower)$CVS Health(CVS)$&nbsp;Gaps up pre-market after posted better than expected Q1 profits, reported 10.5% rise, helped in","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$Pfizer(PFE)$</a>Gaps up pre-market after Pfizer raised its sales forecasted for Covid-19 vaccine (it co-developed with Germany's BNTXO). Bullish levels: will be after breaking over levels 40.65 (short term) resistance. Bearish levels: will be if we break below 40 (watch selling pressure and especially if supports break)$Twitter(TWTR)$&nbsp;Gaps pre pre-market after Elliott Management had picked up $200 million worth of the company's stock. Bullish levels: will be if we breakout over 55.6 (watch for confirmation) Bearish levels: will be below 54.4 (watch selling pressure and especially if the support ends up breaking lower)$CVS Health(CVS)$&nbsp;Gaps up pre-market after posted better than expected Q1 profits, reported 10.5% rise, helped in","text":"$Pfizer(PFE)$Gaps up pre-market after Pfizer raised its sales forecasted for Covid-19 vaccine (it co-developed with Germany's BNTXO). Bullish levels: will be after breaking over levels 40.65 (short term) resistance. Bearish levels: will be if we break below 40 (watch selling pressure and especially if supports break)$Twitter(TWTR)$ Gaps pre pre-market after Elliott Management had picked up $200 million worth of the company's stock. Bullish levels: will be if we breakout over 55.6 (watch for confirmation) Bearish levels: will be below 54.4 (watch selling pressure and especially if the support ends up breaking lower)$CVS Health(CVS)$ Gaps up pre-market after posted better than expected Q1 profits, reported 10.5% rise, helped in","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106580611","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108424044,"gmtCreate":1620050474388,"gmtModify":1634208227703,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>a lot of big sellers!!!!!! nooooooo","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>a lot of big sellers!!!!!! nooooooo","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$a lot of big sellers!!!!!! nooooooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108424044","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377285923,"gmtCreate":1619530864462,"gmtModify":1631886845581,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"$MNMD&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNMD\">$Mind Medicine (MindMed) Inc.(MNMD)$</a>Mind Medicine Inc is going to be debuting on Nasdaq this morning and will be the 2nd psychedelic company to go public on a major American exchange.Bullish levels: if it can breakout over 2.20 (with confirmation of no fake out).Bearish levels: if it breaks down below 2 not enough data for any accuracy$TSLA&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Beats the wall street expectations for q1 revenue with record breaking deliveries for 3 consecutive months from demand from China. Revenue rose from $5.99 billion to $10.39 billion.Bullish levels: if we can breakout over 735Bearish levels: if levels go below 714 (watch the selling pressure in candles if any)Ps: invest at ur own risk&nbsp;","listText":"$MNMD&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNMD\">$Mind Medicine (MindMed) Inc.(MNMD)$</a>Mind Medicine Inc is going to be debuting on Nasdaq this morning and will be the 2nd psychedelic company to go public on a major American exchange.Bullish levels: if it can breakout over 2.20 (with confirmation of no fake out).Bearish levels: if it breaks down below 2 not enough data for any accuracy$TSLA&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Beats the wall street expectations for q1 revenue with record breaking deliveries for 3 consecutive months from demand from China. Revenue rose from $5.99 billion to $10.39 billion.Bullish levels: if we can breakout over 735Bearish levels: if levels go below 714 (watch the selling pressure in candles if any)Ps: invest at ur own risk&nbsp;","text":"$MNMD $Mind Medicine (MindMed) Inc.(MNMD)$Mind Medicine Inc is going to be debuting on Nasdaq this morning and will be the 2nd psychedelic company to go public on a major American exchange.Bullish levels: if it can breakout over 2.20 (with confirmation of no fake out).Bearish levels: if it breaks down below 2 not enough data for any accuracy$TSLA $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Beats the wall street expectations for q1 revenue with record breaking deliveries for 3 consecutive months from demand from China. Revenue rose from $5.99 billion to $10.39 billion.Bullish levels: if we can breakout over 735Bearish levels: if levels go below 714 (watch the selling pressure in candles if any)Ps: invest at ur own risk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377285923","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5264,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368454974,"gmtCreate":1614350312298,"gmtModify":1703476755092,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"When there are news especially at financial report day, many wil sell. Hahaha.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>","listText":"When there are news especially at financial report day, many wil sell. Hahaha.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>","text":"When there are news especially at financial report day, many wil sell. Hahaha. $NIO Inc.(NIO)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368454974","repostId":"1111681080","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1111681080","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614323230,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1111681080?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 15:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why NIO Stock Dropped Thursday<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价周四下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111681080","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Positive earnings from a Chinese EV peer hasn't helped stocks in the sector today.Many stocks in the electric-vehicle  sector are sinking today, and Chinese EV maker NIO is no exception. With its fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 earnings looming, shares dropped as much as 10% Thursday.Fellow ChineseEV maker Li Auto reported its fourth-quarter earnings today, but the results shouldn't be scaring investors in the sector. Li Auto reported a surprise profit for its fourth quarter, which could bode ","content":"<p>Positive earnings from a Chinese EV peer hasn't helped stocks in the sector today.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车同行的积极收益并没有帮助该行业的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么事</b></blockquote></p><p> Many stocks in the electric-vehicle (EV) sector are sinking today, and Chinese EV maker&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;is no exception. With its fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 earnings looming, shares dropped as much as 10% Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>如今，电动汽车（EV）行业的许多股票都在下跌，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来也不例外。随着2020年第四季度和全年财报的临近，周四股价下跌了10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Fellow ChineseEV maker&nbsp;Li Auto&nbsp;reported its fourth-quarter earnings today, but the results shouldn't be scaring investors in the sector. Li Auto reported a surprise profit for its fourth quarter, which could bode well for what NIO has to say when it reports on Monday, March 1.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商理想汽车今天公布了第四季度收益，但结果不应吓到该行业的投资者。理想汽车公布第四季度意外盈利，这可能是蔚来 3 月 1 日星期一公布财报时的好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> But investors are knocking back stocks of these high fliers today after extended runs brought high valuations.</p><p><blockquote>但在长期运行带来高估值后，投资者今天正在回购这些高涨股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在呢</b></blockquote></p><p> Li Auto reported a surprise positive net income of $16.5 million for its fourth quarter. While NIO competes with LI Auto, the companies offer slightly different products. Li's One SUV was designed to serve a specific niche in China. It includes a small gasoline engine onboard that can be used to recharge its batteries, allowing for longer travel between charging stations.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车公布第四季度净利润意外为 1650 万美元。虽然蔚来与理想汽车竞争，但两家公司提供的产品略有不同。李的一款 SUV 专为中国的特定利基市场而设计。它包括一个小型汽油发动机，可用于给电池充电，允许在充电站之间行驶更长的时间。</blockquote></p><p> NIO delivered 7,225 vehicles&nbsp;in January 2021 and 17,353 in its fourth quarter. These represented 352% and 111% year-over-year gains, respectively. NIO recently announced its first luxury sedan, the ET7, which will also have a new longer-range battery option.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来 2021 年 1 月交付了 7,225 辆汽车，第四季度交付了 17,353 辆。这分别代表同比增长 352% 和 111%。蔚来最近宣布了其首款豪华轿车 ET7，该车还将配备新的增程电池选项。</blockquote></p><p> Including today's drop, shares have already fallen more than 20% from highs earlier this year. NIO's earnings on Monday could help soothe investor anxiety over the stock's high valuation. But for now, a correction remains under way.</p><p><blockquote>包括今天的下跌在内，股价已较今年早些时候的高点下跌了 20% 以上。蔚来汽车周一的财报可能有助于缓解投资者对该股高估值的焦虑。但目前，修正仍在进行中。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why NIO Stock Dropped Thursday<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价周四下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy NIO Stock Dropped Thursday<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价周四下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-26 15:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Positive earnings from a Chinese EV peer hasn't helped stocks in the sector today.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车同行的积极收益并没有帮助该行业的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么事</b></blockquote></p><p> Many stocks in the electric-vehicle (EV) sector are sinking today, and Chinese EV maker&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;is no exception. With its fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 earnings looming, shares dropped as much as 10% Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>如今，电动汽车（EV）行业的许多股票都在下跌，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来也不例外。随着2020年第四季度和全年财报的临近，周四股价下跌了10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Fellow ChineseEV maker&nbsp;Li Auto&nbsp;reported its fourth-quarter earnings today, but the results shouldn't be scaring investors in the sector. Li Auto reported a surprise profit for its fourth quarter, which could bode well for what NIO has to say when it reports on Monday, March 1.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商理想汽车今天公布了第四季度收益，但结果不应吓到该行业的投资者。理想汽车公布第四季度意外盈利，这可能是蔚来 3 月 1 日星期一公布财报时的好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> But investors are knocking back stocks of these high fliers today after extended runs brought high valuations.</p><p><blockquote>但在长期运行带来高估值后，投资者今天正在回购这些高涨股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在呢</b></blockquote></p><p> Li Auto reported a surprise positive net income of $16.5 million for its fourth quarter. While NIO competes with LI Auto, the companies offer slightly different products. Li's One SUV was designed to serve a specific niche in China. It includes a small gasoline engine onboard that can be used to recharge its batteries, allowing for longer travel between charging stations.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车公布第四季度净利润意外为 1650 万美元。虽然蔚来与理想汽车竞争，但两家公司提供的产品略有不同。李的一款 SUV 专为中国的特定利基市场而设计。它包括一个小型汽油发动机，可用于给电池充电，允许在充电站之间行驶更长的时间。</blockquote></p><p> NIO delivered 7,225 vehicles&nbsp;in January 2021 and 17,353 in its fourth quarter. These represented 352% and 111% year-over-year gains, respectively. NIO recently announced its first luxury sedan, the ET7, which will also have a new longer-range battery option.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来 2021 年 1 月交付了 7,225 辆汽车，第四季度交付了 17,353 辆。这分别代表同比增长 352% 和 111%。蔚来最近宣布了其首款豪华轿车 ET7，该车还将配备新的增程电池选项。</blockquote></p><p> Including today's drop, shares have already fallen more than 20% from highs earlier this year. NIO's earnings on Monday could help soothe investor anxiety over the stock's high valuation. But for now, a correction remains under way.</p><p><blockquote>包括今天的下跌在内，股价已较今年早些时候的高点下跌了 20% 以上。蔚来汽车周一的财报可能有助于缓解投资者对该股高估值的焦虑。但目前，修正仍在进行中。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/25/why-nio-stock-dropped-thursday/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/25/why-nio-stock-dropped-thursday/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111681080","content_text":"Positive earnings from a Chinese EV peer hasn't helped stocks in the sector today.\nWhat happened\nMany stocks in the electric-vehicle (EV) sector are sinking today, and Chinese EV maker NIO is no exception. With its fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 earnings looming, shares dropped as much as 10% Thursday.\nSo what\nFellow ChineseEV maker Li Auto reported its fourth-quarter earnings today, but the results shouldn't be scaring investors in the sector. Li Auto reported a surprise profit for its fourth quarter, which could bode well for what NIO has to say when it reports on Monday, March 1.\nBut investors are knocking back stocks of these high fliers today after extended runs brought high valuations.\nNow what\nLi Auto reported a surprise positive net income of $16.5 million for its fourth quarter. While NIO competes with LI Auto, the companies offer slightly different products. Li's One SUV was designed to serve a specific niche in China. It includes a small gasoline engine onboard that can be used to recharge its batteries, allowing for longer travel between charging stations.\nNIO delivered 7,225 vehicles in January 2021 and 17,353 in its fourth quarter. These represented 352% and 111% year-over-year gains, respectively. NIO recently announced its first luxury sedan, the ET7, which will also have a new longer-range battery option.\nIncluding today's drop, shares have already fallen more than 20% from highs earlier this year. NIO's earnings on Monday could help soothe investor anxiety over the stock's high valuation. But for now, a correction remains under way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363097708,"gmtCreate":1614081024904,"gmtModify":1634551261641,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363097708","repostId":"1116870824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116870824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614051228,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1116870824?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-23 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们在泡沫里吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价 2021 年股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116870824","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indica","content":"<p>Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’</p><p><blockquote>雷-达里奥（Ray Dalio）的泡沫指标显示，2021年市场在他的“泡沫指标”中排名第77位。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些投资者感到股市泡沫严重，这一事实在过去一周左右的时间里打压了市场的看涨情绪，但雷-达里奥（Ray Dalio）的一份报告暗示，股市并不像人们想象的那样泡沫化。</blockquote></p><p> “In brief,&nbsp;the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall.&nbsp;In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in&nbsp;a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，目前美国股市整体泡沫指标约为第 77 个百分位。在 2000 年泡沫和 1929 年泡沫中，这一综合指标的读数为第 100 个百分位，”达里奥周一在 LinkedIn 上发表的一篇博文中写道。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab41b9c50d3b241dd38ad744ba96b22\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"597\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> RAY DALIO</p><p><blockquote>雷·达里奥</blockquote></p><p> Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥是全球最大的对冲基金公司桥水联合公司（Bridgewater Associates）的创始人，这家公司使他成为亿万富翁，他的言论一直吸引着人们的目光。</blockquote></p><p> The hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:</p><p><blockquote>这位对冲基金投资者表示，他使用六项指标创建了一个指标来帮助他确定股市是否处于泡沫中，他将泡沫定义为不可持续的高价：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How high are prices relative to traditional measures?</li>  <li>Are prices discounting unsustainable conditions?</li>  <li>How many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?</li>  <li>How broadly bullish is sentiment?</li>  <li>Are purchases being financed by high leverage?</li>  <li>Have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?</li> </ol> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ffcb17a9670acba9a6816361da9fb0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"301\"><span>VIA RAY DALIO</span></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>相对于传统措施，价格有多高？</li><li>价格是否打折了不可持续的条件？</li><li>有多少新买家（即以前没有进入市场的买家）进入了市场？</li><li>情绪有多普遍看涨？</li><li>购买是否通过高杠杆融资？</li><li>买家是否进行了异常延长的远期采购（例如，建立库存、合同远期采购等）。）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过雷·达里奥</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.</p><p><blockquote>基于这些因素，并利用 20 世纪 10 年代的数据，达里奥的指标表明，市场存在泡沫，但不一定处于他定义的泡沫中。</blockquote></p><p> Dalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥发表上述言论之际，股市投资者正在与不断上升的债券收益率作斗争，10 年期美国国债正处于约一年来的最高水平，因为投资者正在为通胀上升和因 COVID-19 大流行病而萎靡不振的经济复苏做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> Fiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.</p><p><blockquote>投资者认为，财政支出和有利于市场的政策是使道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数保持在或接近历史高位的因素，尽管从某些指标来看，道琼斯工业平均指数的估值高得离谱。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们在泡沫里吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价 2021 年股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们在泡沫里吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价 2021 年股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-23 11:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’</p><p><blockquote>雷-达里奥（Ray Dalio）的泡沫指标显示，2021年市场在他的“泡沫指标”中排名第77位。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些投资者感到股市泡沫严重，这一事实在过去一周左右的时间里打压了市场的看涨情绪，但雷-达里奥（Ray Dalio）的一份报告暗示，股市并不像人们想象的那样泡沫化。</blockquote></p><p> “In brief,&nbsp;the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall.&nbsp;In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in&nbsp;a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，目前美国股市整体泡沫指标约为第 77 个百分位。在 2000 年泡沫和 1929 年泡沫中，这一综合指标的读数为第 100 个百分位，”达里奥周一在 LinkedIn 上发表的一篇博文中写道。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab41b9c50d3b241dd38ad744ba96b22\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"597\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> RAY DALIO</p><p><blockquote>雷·达里奥</blockquote></p><p> Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥是全球最大的对冲基金公司桥水联合公司（Bridgewater Associates）的创始人，这家公司使他成为亿万富翁，他的言论一直吸引着人们的目光。</blockquote></p><p> The hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:</p><p><blockquote>这位对冲基金投资者表示，他使用六项指标创建了一个指标来帮助他确定股市是否处于泡沫中，他将泡沫定义为不可持续的高价：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How high are prices relative to traditional measures?</li>  <li>Are prices discounting unsustainable conditions?</li>  <li>How many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?</li>  <li>How broadly bullish is sentiment?</li>  <li>Are purchases being financed by high leverage?</li>  <li>Have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?</li> </ol> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ffcb17a9670acba9a6816361da9fb0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"301\"><span>VIA RAY DALIO</span></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>相对于传统措施，价格有多高？</li><li>价格是否打折了不可持续的条件？</li><li>有多少新买家（即以前没有进入市场的买家）进入了市场？</li><li>情绪有多普遍看涨？</li><li>购买是否通过高杠杆融资？</li><li>买家是否进行了异常延长的远期采购（例如，建立库存、合同远期采购等）。）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过雷·达里奥</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.</p><p><blockquote>基于这些因素，并利用 20 世纪 10 年代的数据，达里奥的指标表明，市场存在泡沫，但不一定处于他定义的泡沫中。</blockquote></p><p> Dalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥发表上述言论之际，股市投资者正在与不断上升的债券收益率作斗争，10 年期美国国债正处于约一年来的最高水平，因为投资者正在为通胀上升和因 COVID-19 大流行病而萎靡不振的经济复苏做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> Fiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.</p><p><blockquote>投资者认为，财政支出和有利于市场的政策是使道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数保持在或接近历史高位的因素，尽管从某些指标来看，道琼斯工业平均指数的估值高得离谱。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-we-in-a-bubble-how-founder-of-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-says-2021-stock-market-stacks-up-11614010302?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-we-in-a-bubble-how-founder-of-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-says-2021-stock-market-stacks-up-11614010302?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1116870824","content_text":"Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’\nThe stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.\n“In brief, the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall. In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.\n\nRAY DALIO\nDalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.\nThe hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:\n\nHow high are prices relative to traditional measures?\nAre prices discounting unsustainable conditions?\nHow many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?\nHow broadly bullish is sentiment?\nAre purchases being financed by high leverage?\nHave buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?\n\nVIA RAY DALIO\nBased on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.\nDalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.\nFiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite Index at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1685,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369091456,"gmtCreate":1613986232375,"gmtModify":1634551657198,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good to invest it//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3573710338829184\">@Jordathj</a>:Sounds good for decades&nbsp;","listText":"good to invest it//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3573710338829184\">@Jordathj</a>:Sounds good for decades&nbsp;","text":"good to invest it//@Jordathj:Sounds good for decades","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369091456","repostId":"1149321056","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381859957,"gmtCreate":1612955017279,"gmtModify":1703767413082,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Let's go","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Let's go","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Let's go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6243ec9760dff3653f7d835f6fd489d3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381859957","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383262955,"gmtCreate":1612881811677,"gmtModify":1703766259774,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>getting there? But why the low price so low.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>getting there? But why the low price so low.","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$getting there? But why the low price so low.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc93bdc9ed3d9bcf2de2af4b6f1e5688","width":"1079","height":"784"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383262955","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":166506077,"gmtCreate":1624015414399,"gmtModify":1634024101532,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"When this post is posted. Stock will goes down.&nbsp;","listText":"When this post is posted. Stock will goes down.&nbsp;","text":"When this post is posted. Stock will goes down.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":54,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166506077","repostId":"1148576248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148576248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623979883,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148576248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来赢了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc.  stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比特斯拉快，然而，它的交易价格却打折了。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）以其强大的市场地位——中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长且竞争激烈的电动汽车行业中的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来能够战胜一些激烈的竞争，包括特斯拉（TSLA）。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们还将讨论蔚来汽车的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己的明智决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位在高端SUV细分市场，专注于具有差异化电池战略的智能电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统【NOMI】，与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等不相上下。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借 ES8 的巨大成功所带来的安装基础和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了 ES6 和 EC6。最近，该公司推出了其首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>如今，蔚来是4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，市场份额为23%，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）的7%。中国汽车技术研究中心数据。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，它几乎消除了里程焦虑，这是大规模电动汽车采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个换电站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池更换策略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务 [BaaS] 解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约 11,000 美元。由于成本是大规模电动汽车采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来汽车的电池战略似乎非常出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层通过在2016年推出EP9出色地打造了这一品牌。六辆 EP9 已以 250 万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特性和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来通过ES8瞄准大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为它们生产低质量产品的看法作斗争。这与二战后日本企业战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是打破“中国制造”等同于低质量观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固地坚持这种旧观念的投资者将会错过投资世界上有史以来最伟大的品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着得到一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括收费货车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国大陆的客户服务方面声誉不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在通过蔚来之家（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品）进一步突破界限。蔚来围绕汽车构建生活方式的努力似乎正在奏效。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为要想逃离汽车代工厂的竞争战场，唯一的办法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利（赛车）营业利润率远高于 20%，而福特 (F) 和通用汽车 (GM) 则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计 2021 年 EBITDA 为负 2.58 亿美元，2022 年为正 2.06 亿美元。自由现金流预计在2021年为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计 2021 年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到安心，因为该公司在 2020 年退出时拥有 59 亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括 6 亿美元的短期投资，减去约 21 亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及 2021 年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在 2021 年退出时应该拥有超过 40 亿美元的净现金和投资。这是充足的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在 2022 年产生正自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注未来的电动汽车/销售倍数，这是尚未盈利的高速增长公司的典型情况。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为电动汽车/销售额的7至8倍，然后在2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，蔚来汽车的估值在2021年1月飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的远期销售额要合理得多。尽管增长速度是 TSLA 10.2 倍，但这比 TSLA 10.2 倍的电动汽车/销量大幅折扣（TSLA 预计 2021 年收入将增长 57%，而蔚来汽车为 117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来存在许多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其电池更换战略高度差异化，并且似乎正在快速增长，但电池更换或快速充电基础设施的最终市场份额仍然没有定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池更换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式具有创新性和新颖性。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然无利可图。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力提高之前，蔚来仍将是一个“给我看”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来汽车的全球扩张能力可能会受到中美地缘政治紧张局势的限制，以及在较小程度上与日本和欧洲的地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临着严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度不断增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服ICE原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和中国比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其汽车和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也在变得越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于蔚来汽车更快的增长率和较低的市盈率，其股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来赢了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来赢了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比特斯拉快，然而，它的交易价格却打折了。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）以其强大的市场地位——中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长且竞争激烈的电动汽车行业中的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来能够战胜一些激烈的竞争，包括特斯拉（TSLA）。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们还将讨论蔚来汽车的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己的明智决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位在高端SUV细分市场，专注于具有差异化电池战略的智能电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统【NOMI】，与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等不相上下。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借 ES8 的巨大成功所带来的安装基础和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了 ES6 和 EC6。最近，该公司推出了其首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>如今，蔚来是4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，市场份额为23%，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）的7%。中国汽车技术研究中心数据。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，它几乎消除了里程焦虑，这是大规模电动汽车采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个换电站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池更换策略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务 [BaaS] 解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约 11,000 美元。由于成本是大规模电动汽车采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来汽车的电池战略似乎非常出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层通过在2016年推出EP9出色地打造了这一品牌。六辆 EP9 已以 250 万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特性和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来通过ES8瞄准大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为它们生产低质量产品的看法作斗争。这与二战后日本企业战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是打破“中国制造”等同于低质量观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固地坚持这种旧观念的投资者将会错过投资世界上有史以来最伟大的品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着得到一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括收费货车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国大陆的客户服务方面声誉不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在通过蔚来之家（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品）进一步突破界限。蔚来围绕汽车构建生活方式的努力似乎正在奏效。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为要想逃离汽车代工厂的竞争战场，唯一的办法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利（赛车）营业利润率远高于 20%，而福特 (F) 和通用汽车 (GM) 则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计 2021 年 EBITDA 为负 2.58 亿美元，2022 年为正 2.06 亿美元。自由现金流预计在2021年为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计 2021 年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到安心，因为该公司在 2020 年退出时拥有 59 亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括 6 亿美元的短期投资，减去约 21 亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及 2021 年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在 2021 年退出时应该拥有超过 40 亿美元的净现金和投资。这是充足的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在 2022 年产生正自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注未来的电动汽车/销售倍数，这是尚未盈利的高速增长公司的典型情况。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为电动汽车/销售额的7至8倍，然后在2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，蔚来汽车的估值在2021年1月飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的远期销售额要合理得多。尽管增长速度是 TSLA 10.2 倍，但这比 TSLA 10.2 倍的电动汽车/销量大幅折扣（TSLA 预计 2021 年收入将增长 57%，而蔚来汽车为 117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来存在许多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其电池更换战略高度差异化，并且似乎正在快速增长，但电池更换或快速充电基础设施的最终市场份额仍然没有定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池更换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式具有创新性和新颖性。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然无利可图。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力提高之前，蔚来仍将是一个“给我看”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来汽车的全球扩张能力可能会受到中美地缘政治紧张局势的限制，以及在较小程度上与日本和欧洲的地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临着严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度不断增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服ICE原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和中国比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其汽车和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也在变得越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于蔚来汽车更快的增长率和较低的市盈率，其股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812660053,"gmtCreate":1630583682072,"gmtModify":1632471863368,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":23,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812660053","repostId":"2164844008","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368454974,"gmtCreate":1614350312298,"gmtModify":1703476755092,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"When there are news especially at financial report day, many wil sell. Hahaha.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>","listText":"When there are news especially at financial report day, many wil sell. Hahaha.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>","text":"When there are news especially at financial report day, many wil sell. Hahaha. $NIO Inc.(NIO)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368454974","repostId":"1111681080","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1111681080","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614323230,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1111681080?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 15:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why NIO Stock Dropped Thursday<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价周四下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111681080","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Positive earnings from a Chinese EV peer hasn't helped stocks in the sector today.Many stocks in the electric-vehicle  sector are sinking today, and Chinese EV maker NIO is no exception. With its fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 earnings looming, shares dropped as much as 10% Thursday.Fellow ChineseEV maker Li Auto reported its fourth-quarter earnings today, but the results shouldn't be scaring investors in the sector. Li Auto reported a surprise profit for its fourth quarter, which could bode ","content":"<p>Positive earnings from a Chinese EV peer hasn't helped stocks in the sector today.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车同行的积极收益并没有帮助该行业的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么事</b></blockquote></p><p> Many stocks in the electric-vehicle (EV) sector are sinking today, and Chinese EV maker&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;is no exception. With its fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 earnings looming, shares dropped as much as 10% Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>如今，电动汽车（EV）行业的许多股票都在下跌，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来也不例外。随着2020年第四季度和全年财报的临近，周四股价下跌了10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Fellow ChineseEV maker&nbsp;Li Auto&nbsp;reported its fourth-quarter earnings today, but the results shouldn't be scaring investors in the sector. Li Auto reported a surprise profit for its fourth quarter, which could bode well for what NIO has to say when it reports on Monday, March 1.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商理想汽车今天公布了第四季度收益，但结果不应吓到该行业的投资者。理想汽车公布第四季度意外盈利，这可能是蔚来 3 月 1 日星期一公布财报时的好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> But investors are knocking back stocks of these high fliers today after extended runs brought high valuations.</p><p><blockquote>但在长期运行带来高估值后，投资者今天正在回购这些高涨股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在呢</b></blockquote></p><p> Li Auto reported a surprise positive net income of $16.5 million for its fourth quarter. While NIO competes with LI Auto, the companies offer slightly different products. Li's One SUV was designed to serve a specific niche in China. It includes a small gasoline engine onboard that can be used to recharge its batteries, allowing for longer travel between charging stations.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车公布第四季度净利润意外为 1650 万美元。虽然蔚来与理想汽车竞争，但两家公司提供的产品略有不同。李的一款 SUV 专为中国的特定利基市场而设计。它包括一个小型汽油发动机，可用于给电池充电，允许在充电站之间行驶更长的时间。</blockquote></p><p> NIO delivered 7,225 vehicles&nbsp;in January 2021 and 17,353 in its fourth quarter. These represented 352% and 111% year-over-year gains, respectively. NIO recently announced its first luxury sedan, the ET7, which will also have a new longer-range battery option.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来 2021 年 1 月交付了 7,225 辆汽车，第四季度交付了 17,353 辆。这分别代表同比增长 352% 和 111%。蔚来最近宣布了其首款豪华轿车 ET7，该车还将配备新的增程电池选项。</blockquote></p><p> Including today's drop, shares have already fallen more than 20% from highs earlier this year. NIO's earnings on Monday could help soothe investor anxiety over the stock's high valuation. But for now, a correction remains under way.</p><p><blockquote>包括今天的下跌在内，股价已较今年早些时候的高点下跌了 20% 以上。蔚来汽车周一的财报可能有助于缓解投资者对该股高估值的焦虑。但目前，修正仍在进行中。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why NIO Stock Dropped Thursday<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价周四下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy NIO Stock Dropped Thursday<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价周四下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-26 15:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Positive earnings from a Chinese EV peer hasn't helped stocks in the sector today.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车同行的积极收益并没有帮助该行业的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么事</b></blockquote></p><p> Many stocks in the electric-vehicle (EV) sector are sinking today, and Chinese EV maker&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;is no exception. With its fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 earnings looming, shares dropped as much as 10% Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>如今，电动汽车（EV）行业的许多股票都在下跌，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来也不例外。随着2020年第四季度和全年财报的临近，周四股价下跌了10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Fellow ChineseEV maker&nbsp;Li Auto&nbsp;reported its fourth-quarter earnings today, but the results shouldn't be scaring investors in the sector. Li Auto reported a surprise profit for its fourth quarter, which could bode well for what NIO has to say when it reports on Monday, March 1.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商理想汽车今天公布了第四季度收益，但结果不应吓到该行业的投资者。理想汽车公布第四季度意外盈利，这可能是蔚来 3 月 1 日星期一公布财报时的好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> But investors are knocking back stocks of these high fliers today after extended runs brought high valuations.</p><p><blockquote>但在长期运行带来高估值后，投资者今天正在回购这些高涨股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在呢</b></blockquote></p><p> Li Auto reported a surprise positive net income of $16.5 million for its fourth quarter. While NIO competes with LI Auto, the companies offer slightly different products. Li's One SUV was designed to serve a specific niche in China. It includes a small gasoline engine onboard that can be used to recharge its batteries, allowing for longer travel between charging stations.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车公布第四季度净利润意外为 1650 万美元。虽然蔚来与理想汽车竞争，但两家公司提供的产品略有不同。李的一款 SUV 专为中国的特定利基市场而设计。它包括一个小型汽油发动机，可用于给电池充电，允许在充电站之间行驶更长的时间。</blockquote></p><p> NIO delivered 7,225 vehicles&nbsp;in January 2021 and 17,353 in its fourth quarter. These represented 352% and 111% year-over-year gains, respectively. NIO recently announced its first luxury sedan, the ET7, which will also have a new longer-range battery option.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来 2021 年 1 月交付了 7,225 辆汽车，第四季度交付了 17,353 辆。这分别代表同比增长 352% 和 111%。蔚来最近宣布了其首款豪华轿车 ET7，该车还将配备新的增程电池选项。</blockquote></p><p> Including today's drop, shares have already fallen more than 20% from highs earlier this year. NIO's earnings on Monday could help soothe investor anxiety over the stock's high valuation. But for now, a correction remains under way.</p><p><blockquote>包括今天的下跌在内，股价已较今年早些时候的高点下跌了 20% 以上。蔚来汽车周一的财报可能有助于缓解投资者对该股高估值的焦虑。但目前，修正仍在进行中。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/25/why-nio-stock-dropped-thursday/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/25/why-nio-stock-dropped-thursday/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111681080","content_text":"Positive earnings from a Chinese EV peer hasn't helped stocks in the sector today.\nWhat happened\nMany stocks in the electric-vehicle (EV) sector are sinking today, and Chinese EV maker NIO is no exception. With its fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 earnings looming, shares dropped as much as 10% Thursday.\nSo what\nFellow ChineseEV maker Li Auto reported its fourth-quarter earnings today, but the results shouldn't be scaring investors in the sector. Li Auto reported a surprise profit for its fourth quarter, which could bode well for what NIO has to say when it reports on Monday, March 1.\nBut investors are knocking back stocks of these high fliers today after extended runs brought high valuations.\nNow what\nLi Auto reported a surprise positive net income of $16.5 million for its fourth quarter. While NIO competes with LI Auto, the companies offer slightly different products. Li's One SUV was designed to serve a specific niche in China. It includes a small gasoline engine onboard that can be used to recharge its batteries, allowing for longer travel between charging stations.\nNIO delivered 7,225 vehicles in January 2021 and 17,353 in its fourth quarter. These represented 352% and 111% year-over-year gains, respectively. NIO recently announced its first luxury sedan, the ET7, which will also have a new longer-range battery option.\nIncluding today's drop, shares have already fallen more than 20% from highs earlier this year. NIO's earnings on Monday could help soothe investor anxiety over the stock's high valuation. But for now, a correction remains under way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":821720598,"gmtCreate":1633793518114,"gmtModify":1633793518213,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"jo//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3563489168295977\">@STSS</a>:Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"jo//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3563489168295977\">@STSS</a>:Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"jo//@STSS:Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821720598","repostId":"2164844008","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":381859957,"gmtCreate":1612955017279,"gmtModify":1703767413082,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Let's go","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Let's go","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Let's go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6243ec9760dff3653f7d835f6fd489d3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381859957","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363097708,"gmtCreate":1614081024904,"gmtModify":1634551261641,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363097708","repostId":"1116870824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116870824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614051228,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1116870824?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-23 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们在泡沫里吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价 2021 年股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116870824","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indica","content":"<p>Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’</p><p><blockquote>雷-达里奥（Ray Dalio）的泡沫指标显示，2021年市场在他的“泡沫指标”中排名第77位。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些投资者感到股市泡沫严重，这一事实在过去一周左右的时间里打压了市场的看涨情绪，但雷-达里奥（Ray Dalio）的一份报告暗示，股市并不像人们想象的那样泡沫化。</blockquote></p><p> “In brief,&nbsp;the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall.&nbsp;In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in&nbsp;a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，目前美国股市整体泡沫指标约为第 77 个百分位。在 2000 年泡沫和 1929 年泡沫中，这一综合指标的读数为第 100 个百分位，”达里奥周一在 LinkedIn 上发表的一篇博文中写道。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab41b9c50d3b241dd38ad744ba96b22\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"597\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> RAY DALIO</p><p><blockquote>雷·达里奥</blockquote></p><p> Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥是全球最大的对冲基金公司桥水联合公司（Bridgewater Associates）的创始人，这家公司使他成为亿万富翁，他的言论一直吸引着人们的目光。</blockquote></p><p> The hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:</p><p><blockquote>这位对冲基金投资者表示，他使用六项指标创建了一个指标来帮助他确定股市是否处于泡沫中，他将泡沫定义为不可持续的高价：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How high are prices relative to traditional measures?</li>  <li>Are prices discounting unsustainable conditions?</li>  <li>How many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?</li>  <li>How broadly bullish is sentiment?</li>  <li>Are purchases being financed by high leverage?</li>  <li>Have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?</li> </ol> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ffcb17a9670acba9a6816361da9fb0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"301\"><span>VIA RAY DALIO</span></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>相对于传统措施，价格有多高？</li><li>价格是否打折了不可持续的条件？</li><li>有多少新买家（即以前没有进入市场的买家）进入了市场？</li><li>情绪有多普遍看涨？</li><li>购买是否通过高杠杆融资？</li><li>买家是否进行了异常延长的远期采购（例如，建立库存、合同远期采购等）。）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过雷·达里奥</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.</p><p><blockquote>基于这些因素，并利用 20 世纪 10 年代的数据，达里奥的指标表明，市场存在泡沫，但不一定处于他定义的泡沫中。</blockquote></p><p> Dalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥发表上述言论之际，股市投资者正在与不断上升的债券收益率作斗争，10 年期美国国债正处于约一年来的最高水平，因为投资者正在为通胀上升和因 COVID-19 大流行病而萎靡不振的经济复苏做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> Fiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.</p><p><blockquote>投资者认为，财政支出和有利于市场的政策是使道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数保持在或接近历史高位的因素，尽管从某些指标来看，道琼斯工业平均指数的估值高得离谱。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们在泡沫里吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价 2021 年股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们在泡沫里吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价 2021 年股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-23 11:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’</p><p><blockquote>雷-达里奥（Ray Dalio）的泡沫指标显示，2021年市场在他的“泡沫指标”中排名第77位。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些投资者感到股市泡沫严重，这一事实在过去一周左右的时间里打压了市场的看涨情绪，但雷-达里奥（Ray Dalio）的一份报告暗示，股市并不像人们想象的那样泡沫化。</blockquote></p><p> “In brief,&nbsp;the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall.&nbsp;In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in&nbsp;a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，目前美国股市整体泡沫指标约为第 77 个百分位。在 2000 年泡沫和 1929 年泡沫中，这一综合指标的读数为第 100 个百分位，”达里奥周一在 LinkedIn 上发表的一篇博文中写道。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab41b9c50d3b241dd38ad744ba96b22\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"597\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> RAY DALIO</p><p><blockquote>雷·达里奥</blockquote></p><p> Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥是全球最大的对冲基金公司桥水联合公司（Bridgewater Associates）的创始人，这家公司使他成为亿万富翁，他的言论一直吸引着人们的目光。</blockquote></p><p> The hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:</p><p><blockquote>这位对冲基金投资者表示，他使用六项指标创建了一个指标来帮助他确定股市是否处于泡沫中，他将泡沫定义为不可持续的高价：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How high are prices relative to traditional measures?</li>  <li>Are prices discounting unsustainable conditions?</li>  <li>How many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?</li>  <li>How broadly bullish is sentiment?</li>  <li>Are purchases being financed by high leverage?</li>  <li>Have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?</li> </ol> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ffcb17a9670acba9a6816361da9fb0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"301\"><span>VIA RAY DALIO</span></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>相对于传统措施，价格有多高？</li><li>价格是否打折了不可持续的条件？</li><li>有多少新买家（即以前没有进入市场的买家）进入了市场？</li><li>情绪有多普遍看涨？</li><li>购买是否通过高杠杆融资？</li><li>买家是否进行了异常延长的远期采购（例如，建立库存、合同远期采购等）。）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过雷·达里奥</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.</p><p><blockquote>基于这些因素，并利用 20 世纪 10 年代的数据，达里奥的指标表明，市场存在泡沫，但不一定处于他定义的泡沫中。</blockquote></p><p> Dalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥发表上述言论之际，股市投资者正在与不断上升的债券收益率作斗争，10 年期美国国债正处于约一年来的最高水平，因为投资者正在为通胀上升和因 COVID-19 大流行病而萎靡不振的经济复苏做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> Fiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.</p><p><blockquote>投资者认为，财政支出和有利于市场的政策是使道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数保持在或接近历史高位的因素，尽管从某些指标来看，道琼斯工业平均指数的估值高得离谱。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-we-in-a-bubble-how-founder-of-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-says-2021-stock-market-stacks-up-11614010302?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-we-in-a-bubble-how-founder-of-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-says-2021-stock-market-stacks-up-11614010302?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1116870824","content_text":"Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’\nThe stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.\n“In brief, the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall. In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.\n\nRAY DALIO\nDalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.\nThe hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:\n\nHow high are prices relative to traditional measures?\nAre prices discounting unsustainable conditions?\nHow many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?\nHow broadly bullish is sentiment?\nAre purchases being financed by high leverage?\nHave buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?\n\nVIA RAY DALIO\nBased on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.\nDalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.\nFiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite Index at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1685,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383214891,"gmtCreate":1612881308313,"gmtModify":1703766234777,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Forecasted target price. Yes or no?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Forecasted target price. Yes or no?&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Forecasted target price. Yes or no?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abb48a72e33cbf799adc7d323670fe3a","width":"1079","height":"789"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383214891","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3567221534186902","authorId":"3567221534186902","name":"TerryTB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c14fb014fdfa4fbc519ac724e5fa788","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3567221534186902","idStr":"3567221534186902"},"content":"我比较好奇7.71是哪个机构的研究院给出的","text":"我比较好奇7.71是哪个机构的研究院给出的","html":"我比较好奇7.71是哪个机构的研究院给出的"},{"author":{"id":"3453431130589338","authorId":"3453431130589338","name":"欢天喜地炒炒股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e41597dfa5686ff8bc81788414ac24a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3453431130589338","idStr":"3453431130589338"},"content":"应该是给出后再无评级更新","text":"应该是给出后再无评级更新","html":"应该是给出后再无评级更新"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383262955,"gmtCreate":1612881811677,"gmtModify":1703766259774,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>getting there? But why the low price so low.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>getting there? But why the low price so low.","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$getting there? But why the low price so low.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc93bdc9ed3d9bcf2de2af4b6f1e5688","width":"1079","height":"784"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383262955","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174276142,"gmtCreate":1627106573886,"gmtModify":1633767891376,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174276142","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期导向的投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。届时特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比，它似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期导向的投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。届时特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比，它似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4075,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369091456,"gmtCreate":1613986232375,"gmtModify":1634551657198,"author":{"id":"3563489168295977","authorId":"3563489168295977","name":"STSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9990000e788fa6c445a95b47ef26606","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563489168295977","idStr":"3563489168295977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good to invest it//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3573710338829184\">@Jordathj</a>:Sounds good for decades&nbsp;","listText":"good to invest it//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3573710338829184\">@Jordathj</a>:Sounds good for decades&nbsp;","text":"good to invest it//@Jordathj:Sounds good for decades","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369091456","repostId":"1149321056","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}