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Clarity

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2021-07-27

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2021-07-26

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2021-07-25

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2021-07-25

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2021-07-12

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2021-07-08

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2021-07-07

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2021-07-07

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2021-07-02

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ROKU: The Next Step<blockquote>ROKU：下一步</blockquote>

2021-07-02

[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]

The Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.<blockquote>股市上半年表现良好。可能导致它崩溃的3件事。</blockquote>

2021-07-01

Nice [Miser]

The S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.<blockquote>标普500创下了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote>

2021-06-30

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2021-06-30

Nvda!

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2021-06-30

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2021-06-26

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2021-06-25

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2021-06-25

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2021-06-24

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2021-06-18

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Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>

2021-06-18

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[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146605186","repostId":"1114863871","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149674133,"gmtCreate":1625726511322,"gmtModify":1631889889412,"author":{"id":"3562662036291129","authorId":"3562662036291129","name":"Clarity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/290bda4a10a88bafe28971dd816e57cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562662036291129","authorIdStr":"3562662036291129"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Awesome [Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Awesome [Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Awesome [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149674133","repostId":"2149313255","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3914,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140293628,"gmtCreate":1625659336264,"gmtModify":1631889889434,"author":{"id":"3562662036291129","authorId":"3562662036291129","name":"Clarity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/290bda4a10a88bafe28971dd816e57cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562662036291129","authorIdStr":"3562662036291129"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140293628","repostId":"1146581808","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140293934,"gmtCreate":1625659286128,"gmtModify":1631889889439,"author":{"id":"3562662036291129","authorId":"3562662036291129","name":"Clarity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/290bda4a10a88bafe28971dd816e57cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562662036291129","authorIdStr":"3562662036291129"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140293934","repostId":"1110626244","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156540427,"gmtCreate":1625232477569,"gmtModify":1631889889449,"author":{"id":"3562662036291129","authorId":"3562662036291129","name":"Clarity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/290bda4a10a88bafe28971dd816e57cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562662036291129","authorIdStr":"3562662036291129"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156540427","repostId":"1129664890","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129664890","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625232423,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129664890?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ROKU: The Next Step<blockquote>ROKU：下一步</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129664890","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time.\nThe stock price d","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time.</li>  <li>The stock price depends on whether it uses the capital to the value of shareholders.</li>  <li>Astronomical gains in top-line growth and cash flow are witnesses. However, high P/S and P/CF are still a concern.</li>  <li>We're risking it by going long as the early signs of acquisitions have been encouraging.</li>  <li>Tread lightly with the risks involved.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b00a4fa1d444c1076f1bb7fa30c1199\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"566\"><span>Arturo Holmes/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ROKU 的股票处于平衡状态，因为它首次报告盈余。</li><li>股票价格取决于它是否将资本用于股东的价值。</li><li>营收增长和现金流的天文数字增长就是见证。然而，高市盈率和市盈率仍然令人担忧。</li><li>由于收购的早期迹象令人鼓舞，我们冒着做多的风险。</li><li>对所涉及的风险轻描淡写。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>阿图罗·霍姆斯/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> For those who aren't aware, Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) is the leading TV streaming platform in the United States, with an active user base of over&nbsp;50 million. The company partners with TV brands which allows it to manufacture and sell its content via its platform.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，Roku（纳斯达克股票代码：ROKU）是美国领先的电视流媒体平台，拥有超过5000万的活跃用户群。该公司与电视品牌合作，这使其能够通过其平台制造和销售内容。</blockquote></p><p> The company operates through two segments namely platform and player.</p><p><blockquote>该公司通过两个部门运营，即平台和玩家。</blockquote></p><p> The platform segment allows users to gain access to television and movies. The player segment offers streaming players, audio products, and accessories through the ROKU name. Further to the business is significant ad revenue as most tech companies have these days.</p><p><blockquote>平台部分允许用户访问电视和电影。播放器细分市场通过ROKU名称提供流媒体播放器、音频产品和配件。除了这项业务之外，还有可观的广告收入，就像现在大多数科技公司一样。</blockquote></p><p> ROKU is still in its growth stage and has gained significant traction from investors&nbsp;since listing&nbsp;on the Nasdaq in 2017.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU仍处于成长阶段，自2017年在纳斯达克上市以来，已获得投资者的显著吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials&nbsp;</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Top-Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>顶线</b></blockquote></p><p> ROKU reported&nbsp;63.46%&nbsp;in year-over-year revenue growth the past year. The company has a 5-year average growth rate in revenue of&nbsp;40.9%, which ranks in the 99th sector percentile. ROKU's core business is growing well, with&nbsp;101%&nbsp;year-over-year growth in revenue due to an increase in platform usage of 4.5% in the past quarter. We think that ad revenue will add sustainability to the firm's revenue as competition rises through improved products from Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)and Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)streaming services. ROKU has entered into a&nbsp;strategic alliance&nbsp;with Nielsen to access their ad content. ROKU also completed asset acquisitions in the deal by acquiring Nielsen's AVA and DAI technologies to improve content recognition and ad insertion.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU去年收入同比增长63.46%。该公司5年平均收入增长率为40.9%，位列行业第99位。ROKU的核心业务增长良好，由于上一季度平台使用量增长4.5%，收入同比增长101%。我们认为，随着苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）和谷歌（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）流媒体服务的改进产品带来的竞争加剧，广告收入将增加公司收入的可持续性。ROKU已经与尼尔森结成战略联盟，以访问他们的广告内容。ROKU还在交易中完成了资产收购，收购了尼尔森旗下的AVA和DAI技术，以改善内容识别和广告插入。</blockquote></p><p> We think that added efficiency and synergies will improve the sustainability of the company's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，提高效率和协同效应将提高公司盈利的可持续性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>User Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>用户增长</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7660020b92ea61b62566e9ac2ac6cd02\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ROKU has undoubtedly expanded rapidly during the lockdown, and this is an anomaly that can't be denied. But something worth looking at is the company's gradual increase before the pandemic. We don't think that ROKU is a one-hit-wonder by any stretch of the imagination, and user growth looks set to continue growing.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU无疑在封锁期间迅速扩张，这是一个不可否认的异常现象。但值得注意的是该公司在大流行之前的逐步增长。无论我们怎么想象，我们都不认为ROKU是一个一蹴而就的奇迹，而且用户增长看起来还会继续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27f287b57a10fb5d043ef20b96b548a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\"><span>Source: GuruFocus</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：GuruFocus</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To consolidate the argument, we've pulled up the return on invested capital chart. The ROIC is a good indicator of a company's competitive stance within an industry. The recent growth in ROIC indicates that ROKU is still expanding well in itsindustry. We think that increased third-party distributors and increased investment in the ROKU channels contributed immensely to the uptick in ROIC. Furthermore, factors such as Disney+ and NBC Universal Peacock, HBO Max, and Discovery+ have and will stimulate further user growth.</p><p><blockquote>为了巩固这一论点，我们拉出了投资资本回报率图表。投资回报率是公司在行业内竞争地位的一个很好的指标。最近投资回报率的增长表明ROKU在其行业中仍在良好扩张。我们认为，第三方分销商的增加和ROKU渠道投资的增加对投资回报率的上升做出了巨大贡献。此外，迪士尼+和NBC环球孔雀、HBO Max和Discovery+等因素已经并将刺激用户的进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom-Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe252a78a1b9f030d0518689d2bfb148\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"109\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/731e79eb9769e07f6760b43a0670f444\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"129\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Very important to us are net income and normalized net income. The reasons are that the company finally turned a profit in Q-1 and now has residual to work with. The factor is unusual items. ROKU's normalized net income excludes unusual earnings, the fact that they're still reporting positive normalized net income is a big plus.</p><p><blockquote>对我们来说非常重要的是净利润和标准化净利润。原因是该公司终于在第一季度扭亏为盈，现在有剩余资金可以处理。因素是不寻常的物品。ROKU 的标准化净利润不包括异常收益，事实上他们仍然报告正的标准化净利润是一个很大的优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Multiples</b></p><p><blockquote><b>多重</b></blockquote></p><p> Seeing that ROKU is now profitable, we can apply a few multiples for analysis. To start with, we looked at the price to sales. This metric can be used at any stage of the business cycle. ROKU is in a growth phase, and we think it's not easy to interpret the other multiples without looking at this one first.(The base data can be found on&nbsp;Seeking Alpha)</p><p><blockquote>看到ROKU现在盈利了，我们可以应用几个倍数进行分析。首先，我们看了销售价格。这个指标可以在商业周期的任何阶段使用。ROKU正处于增长阶段，我们认为如果不先看看这个倍数，就很难解读其他倍数。（基本数据可以在 Seeking Alpha 上找到）</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Market Cap/Annual Sales = 10.27</li> </ul> Considering that we'd like to see a price to sales ratio of between 1 and 2, ROKU is trading at a premium. It has to be considered that sales are growing at an average rate of above 40% annually.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市值/年销售额 = 10.27</li></ul>考虑到我们希望看到市销率在 1 到 2 之间，ROKU的交易价格较高。必须考虑到销售额平均每年增长40%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Another ratio we can look at is the price to cash flow, which is a great metric to use as cash flow resembles the intrinsic value.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以查看的另一个比率是价格与现金流的比率，这是一个很好的指标，因为现金流类似于内在价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>Share price/Cash flow per share = $460/$1.72 = 267.44</li> </ul> Again, this is a high multiple, and we'd like to see a price to cash flow ratio of between 15-20. ROKU has seen an unlevered free cash flow growth worth&nbsp;181.51%&nbsp;over the last year but only has a free cash flow yield of&nbsp;0.3%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股价/每股现金流量=$460/$1.72=267.44</li></ul>同样，这是一个很高的倍数，我们希望看到价格与现金流的比率在 15-20 之间。ROKU去年的无杠杆自由现金流增长了181.51%，但自由现金流收益率仅为0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> The cash flows are still too volatile to forecast the intrinsic value and leading P/E ratio.</p><p><blockquote>现金流仍然太不稳定，无法预测内在价值和领先市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026ba34f1e658421a653fef0403c2ba5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect massive upside in EPS but we think that this is fantasy. The main reason is the fact that the company now holds residual. Let's explain why.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计每股收益将大幅上涨，但我们认为这是幻想。主要原因是公司现在持有剩余。让我们解释一下为什么。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Use Of Residual</b></p><p><blockquote><b>残留物的使用</b></blockquote></p><p> Essential to any stock's valuation is the asset base. Sure ROKU will probably trade at a premium to its asset base due to intellectual property and other intangible assets. However, the fundamental asset base growth is significant, and we think that their M&amp;A strategy will ultimately determine the stock's fate.</p><p><blockquote>资产基础对任何股票的估值都至关重要。当然，由于知识产权和其他无形资产，ROKU的交易价格可能会高于其资产基础。然而，基本资产基础增长显着，我们认为他们的并购策略将最终决定该股的命运。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at acquisition strategies.</p><p><blockquote>让我们来看看收购策略。</blockquote></p><p> To start off with, we'll discuss the importance of data and asset acquisitions for tech companies. Data and asset acquisitions allow for organic growth to be amplified due to the synergies. Purchasing the 'ready-made' innovation is much more effective than innovating from scratch yourself.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们将讨论数据和资产收购对科技公司的重要性。由于协同效应，数据和资产收购可以放大有机增长。购买“现成的”创新比自己从头开始创新要有效得多。</blockquote></p><p> Secondly, let's discuss verticals. Vertical integration allows for acquisitions up and down the value chain. These acquisitions allow for cost-cutting through bargaining power and pricing leadership in the market. If ROKU goes this way, they'll add tremendous value to their asset base.</p><p><blockquote>其次，我们来讨论一下垂直。垂直整合允许在价值链上下游进行收购。这些收购通过议价能力和市场定价领先地位来削减成本。如果ROKU走这条路，他们将为其资产基础增加巨大价值。</blockquote></p><p> Now for horizontals. If ROKU chooses to acquire horizontally for the purpose of gaining market share and reducing potential competitors, they'll end up paying premiums and ending up in many litigation fights. Not very good for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>现在是水平的。如果ROKU以获得市场份额和减少潜在竞争对手为目的选择横向收购，他们最终将支付溢价并陷入许多诉讼斗争。对股东不太好。</blockquote></p><p> Other uses of capital.</p><p><blockquote>资本的其他用途。</blockquote></p><p> ROKU could simply increase its headcount and continue developing internally. This is also not a very efficient way of going about adding shareholder value. It's unlikely that the company will pay dividends and engage in share buyback programs at this stage as it's still in a growth phase.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU可以简单地增加员工人数并继续内部发展。这也不是增加股东价值的一种非常有效的方式。该公司现阶段不太可能支付股息并参与股票回购计划，因为它仍处于增长阶段。</blockquote></p><p> The early signs are that they're completing asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>早期迹象表明他们正在完成资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b8ae004c046f2ab6dae4dc02de6b25c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"><span>Source: Crunchbase</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Crunchbase</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Old House Ventures&nbsp;was acquired to add to its content and bring synergies to the table. Nielsen, as discussed, brings further expansion to the platform and is another lean asset acquisition. The Giraffic deal adds to their cloud space, this is another smart acquisition. Also adding to ad revenue is the acquisition of&nbsp;dataxu, another good acquisition in our opinion. And finally,Dynastrom&nbsp;was an acquisition that adds to ROKU's engineering team.</p><p><blockquote>收购Old House Ventures是为了增加其内容并带来协同效应。如前所述，尼尔森为该平台带来了进一步的扩展，是另一项精益资产收购。Giraffic交易增加了他们的云空间，这是另一个明智的收购。收购 dataxu 也增加了广告收入，我们认为这是另一项不错的收购。最后， Dynastrom 的收购增加了 ROKU 的工程团队。</blockquote></p><p> If ROKU continues acquiring in this manner, it will increase the cash value of its future growth opportunities, this is very good for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>如果ROKU继续以这种方式收购，将增加其未来增长机会的现金价值，这对股东来说是非常好的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shareholder Value</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股东价值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf094989971e65038753abbf9d78cb33\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: GuruFocus</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：GuruFocus</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It remains in the balance as to whether there's a real drive towards shareholder value or not. The EPS is all over the place, which is understandable as many insiders might exercise options during high stock prices. The other side of it is that net income also has been surging. It remains to be seen what the EPS will do. Investors should note that ROKU has a&nbsp;dual-class voting structure, which dilutes shareholder voting rights over insider voting rights.</p><p><blockquote>至于是否有真正的股东价值驱动力，这仍然是一个平衡。每股收益无处不在，这是可以理解的，因为许多内部人士可能会在股价高企时行使期权。另一方面，净利润也一直在飙升。EPS会做什么还有待观察。投资者应注意，ROKU采用双层投票结构，稀释了股东投票权而非内部人士投票权。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Our Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> ROKU is a big gamble at the moment. The company is generating significant topline revenue, and cash flows are growing. If the company follows a similar acquisition strategy as big tech companies, the stock will thrive. If it uses its residual to little effect, the stock might plummet, especially considering the high price to sales and price to cash flow ratios. We're taking our chances nonetheless.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU目前是一场豪赌。该公司正在产生可观的营收，现金流也在增长。如果该公司遵循与大型科技公司类似的收购策略，该股将会蓬勃发展。如果它使用剩余资金收效甚微，股价可能会暴跌，特别是考虑到高市销率和市现金流比率。尽管如此，我们还是要碰碰运气。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ROKU: The Next Step<blockquote>ROKU：下一步</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nROKU: The Next Step<blockquote>ROKU：下一步</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-02 21:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time.</li>  <li>The stock price depends on whether it uses the capital to the value of shareholders.</li>  <li>Astronomical gains in top-line growth and cash flow are witnesses. However, high P/S and P/CF are still a concern.</li>  <li>We're risking it by going long as the early signs of acquisitions have been encouraging.</li>  <li>Tread lightly with the risks involved.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b00a4fa1d444c1076f1bb7fa30c1199\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"566\"><span>Arturo Holmes/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ROKU 的股票处于平衡状态，因为它首次报告盈余。</li><li>股票价格取决于它是否将资本用于股东的价值。</li><li>营收增长和现金流的天文数字增长就是见证。然而，高市盈率和市盈率仍然令人担忧。</li><li>由于收购的早期迹象令人鼓舞，我们冒着做多的风险。</li><li>对所涉及的风险轻描淡写。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>阿图罗·霍姆斯/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> For those who aren't aware, Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) is the leading TV streaming platform in the United States, with an active user base of over&nbsp;50 million. The company partners with TV brands which allows it to manufacture and sell its content via its platform.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，Roku（纳斯达克股票代码：ROKU）是美国领先的电视流媒体平台，拥有超过5000万的活跃用户群。该公司与电视品牌合作，这使其能够通过其平台制造和销售内容。</blockquote></p><p> The company operates through two segments namely platform and player.</p><p><blockquote>该公司通过两个部门运营，即平台和玩家。</blockquote></p><p> The platform segment allows users to gain access to television and movies. The player segment offers streaming players, audio products, and accessories through the ROKU name. Further to the business is significant ad revenue as most tech companies have these days.</p><p><blockquote>平台部分允许用户访问电视和电影。播放器细分市场通过ROKU名称提供流媒体播放器、音频产品和配件。除了这项业务之外，还有可观的广告收入，就像现在大多数科技公司一样。</blockquote></p><p> ROKU is still in its growth stage and has gained significant traction from investors&nbsp;since listing&nbsp;on the Nasdaq in 2017.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU仍处于成长阶段，自2017年在纳斯达克上市以来，已获得投资者的显著吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials&nbsp;</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Top-Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>顶线</b></blockquote></p><p> ROKU reported&nbsp;63.46%&nbsp;in year-over-year revenue growth the past year. The company has a 5-year average growth rate in revenue of&nbsp;40.9%, which ranks in the 99th sector percentile. ROKU's core business is growing well, with&nbsp;101%&nbsp;year-over-year growth in revenue due to an increase in platform usage of 4.5% in the past quarter. We think that ad revenue will add sustainability to the firm's revenue as competition rises through improved products from Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)and Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)streaming services. ROKU has entered into a&nbsp;strategic alliance&nbsp;with Nielsen to access their ad content. ROKU also completed asset acquisitions in the deal by acquiring Nielsen's AVA and DAI technologies to improve content recognition and ad insertion.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU去年收入同比增长63.46%。该公司5年平均收入增长率为40.9%，位列行业第99位。ROKU的核心业务增长良好，由于上一季度平台使用量增长4.5%，收入同比增长101%。我们认为，随着苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）和谷歌（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）流媒体服务的改进产品带来的竞争加剧，广告收入将增加公司收入的可持续性。ROKU已经与尼尔森结成战略联盟，以访问他们的广告内容。ROKU还在交易中完成了资产收购，收购了尼尔森旗下的AVA和DAI技术，以改善内容识别和广告插入。</blockquote></p><p> We think that added efficiency and synergies will improve the sustainability of the company's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，提高效率和协同效应将提高公司盈利的可持续性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>User Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>用户增长</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7660020b92ea61b62566e9ac2ac6cd02\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ROKU has undoubtedly expanded rapidly during the lockdown, and this is an anomaly that can't be denied. But something worth looking at is the company's gradual increase before the pandemic. We don't think that ROKU is a one-hit-wonder by any stretch of the imagination, and user growth looks set to continue growing.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU无疑在封锁期间迅速扩张，这是一个不可否认的异常现象。但值得注意的是该公司在大流行之前的逐步增长。无论我们怎么想象，我们都不认为ROKU是一个一蹴而就的奇迹，而且用户增长看起来还会继续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27f287b57a10fb5d043ef20b96b548a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\"><span>Source: GuruFocus</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：GuruFocus</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To consolidate the argument, we've pulled up the return on invested capital chart. The ROIC is a good indicator of a company's competitive stance within an industry. The recent growth in ROIC indicates that ROKU is still expanding well in itsindustry. We think that increased third-party distributors and increased investment in the ROKU channels contributed immensely to the uptick in ROIC. Furthermore, factors such as Disney+ and NBC Universal Peacock, HBO Max, and Discovery+ have and will stimulate further user growth.</p><p><blockquote>为了巩固这一论点，我们拉出了投资资本回报率图表。投资回报率是公司在行业内竞争地位的一个很好的指标。最近投资回报率的增长表明ROKU在其行业中仍在良好扩张。我们认为，第三方分销商的增加和ROKU渠道投资的增加对投资回报率的上升做出了巨大贡献。此外，迪士尼+和NBC环球孔雀、HBO Max和Discovery+等因素已经并将刺激用户的进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom-Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe252a78a1b9f030d0518689d2bfb148\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"109\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/731e79eb9769e07f6760b43a0670f444\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"129\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Very important to us are net income and normalized net income. The reasons are that the company finally turned a profit in Q-1 and now has residual to work with. The factor is unusual items. ROKU's normalized net income excludes unusual earnings, the fact that they're still reporting positive normalized net income is a big plus.</p><p><blockquote>对我们来说非常重要的是净利润和标准化净利润。原因是该公司终于在第一季度扭亏为盈，现在有剩余资金可以处理。因素是不寻常的物品。ROKU 的标准化净利润不包括异常收益，事实上他们仍然报告正的标准化净利润是一个很大的优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Multiples</b></p><p><blockquote><b>多重</b></blockquote></p><p> Seeing that ROKU is now profitable, we can apply a few multiples for analysis. To start with, we looked at the price to sales. This metric can be used at any stage of the business cycle. ROKU is in a growth phase, and we think it's not easy to interpret the other multiples without looking at this one first.(The base data can be found on&nbsp;Seeking Alpha)</p><p><blockquote>看到ROKU现在盈利了，我们可以应用几个倍数进行分析。首先，我们看了销售价格。这个指标可以在商业周期的任何阶段使用。ROKU正处于增长阶段，我们认为如果不先看看这个倍数，就很难解读其他倍数。（基本数据可以在 Seeking Alpha 上找到）</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Market Cap/Annual Sales = 10.27</li> </ul> Considering that we'd like to see a price to sales ratio of between 1 and 2, ROKU is trading at a premium. It has to be considered that sales are growing at an average rate of above 40% annually.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市值/年销售额 = 10.27</li></ul>考虑到我们希望看到市销率在 1 到 2 之间，ROKU的交易价格较高。必须考虑到销售额平均每年增长40%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Another ratio we can look at is the price to cash flow, which is a great metric to use as cash flow resembles the intrinsic value.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以查看的另一个比率是价格与现金流的比率，这是一个很好的指标，因为现金流类似于内在价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>Share price/Cash flow per share = $460/$1.72 = 267.44</li> </ul> Again, this is a high multiple, and we'd like to see a price to cash flow ratio of between 15-20. ROKU has seen an unlevered free cash flow growth worth&nbsp;181.51%&nbsp;over the last year but only has a free cash flow yield of&nbsp;0.3%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股价/每股现金流量=$460/$1.72=267.44</li></ul>同样，这是一个很高的倍数，我们希望看到价格与现金流的比率在 15-20 之间。ROKU去年的无杠杆自由现金流增长了181.51%，但自由现金流收益率仅为0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> The cash flows are still too volatile to forecast the intrinsic value and leading P/E ratio.</p><p><blockquote>现金流仍然太不稳定，无法预测内在价值和领先市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026ba34f1e658421a653fef0403c2ba5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect massive upside in EPS but we think that this is fantasy. The main reason is the fact that the company now holds residual. Let's explain why.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计每股收益将大幅上涨，但我们认为这是幻想。主要原因是公司现在持有剩余。让我们解释一下为什么。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Use Of Residual</b></p><p><blockquote><b>残留物的使用</b></blockquote></p><p> Essential to any stock's valuation is the asset base. Sure ROKU will probably trade at a premium to its asset base due to intellectual property and other intangible assets. However, the fundamental asset base growth is significant, and we think that their M&amp;A strategy will ultimately determine the stock's fate.</p><p><blockquote>资产基础对任何股票的估值都至关重要。当然，由于知识产权和其他无形资产，ROKU的交易价格可能会高于其资产基础。然而，基本资产基础增长显着，我们认为他们的并购策略将最终决定该股的命运。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at acquisition strategies.</p><p><blockquote>让我们来看看收购策略。</blockquote></p><p> To start off with, we'll discuss the importance of data and asset acquisitions for tech companies. Data and asset acquisitions allow for organic growth to be amplified due to the synergies. Purchasing the 'ready-made' innovation is much more effective than innovating from scratch yourself.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们将讨论数据和资产收购对科技公司的重要性。由于协同效应，数据和资产收购可以放大有机增长。购买“现成的”创新比自己从头开始创新要有效得多。</blockquote></p><p> Secondly, let's discuss verticals. Vertical integration allows for acquisitions up and down the value chain. These acquisitions allow for cost-cutting through bargaining power and pricing leadership in the market. If ROKU goes this way, they'll add tremendous value to their asset base.</p><p><blockquote>其次，我们来讨论一下垂直。垂直整合允许在价值链上下游进行收购。这些收购通过议价能力和市场定价领先地位来削减成本。如果ROKU走这条路，他们将为其资产基础增加巨大价值。</blockquote></p><p> Now for horizontals. If ROKU chooses to acquire horizontally for the purpose of gaining market share and reducing potential competitors, they'll end up paying premiums and ending up in many litigation fights. Not very good for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>现在是水平的。如果ROKU以获得市场份额和减少潜在竞争对手为目的选择横向收购，他们最终将支付溢价并陷入许多诉讼斗争。对股东不太好。</blockquote></p><p> Other uses of capital.</p><p><blockquote>资本的其他用途。</blockquote></p><p> ROKU could simply increase its headcount and continue developing internally. This is also not a very efficient way of going about adding shareholder value. It's unlikely that the company will pay dividends and engage in share buyback programs at this stage as it's still in a growth phase.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU可以简单地增加员工人数并继续内部发展。这也不是增加股东价值的一种非常有效的方式。该公司现阶段不太可能支付股息并参与股票回购计划，因为它仍处于增长阶段。</blockquote></p><p> The early signs are that they're completing asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>早期迹象表明他们正在完成资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b8ae004c046f2ab6dae4dc02de6b25c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"><span>Source: Crunchbase</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Crunchbase</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Old House Ventures&nbsp;was acquired to add to its content and bring synergies to the table. Nielsen, as discussed, brings further expansion to the platform and is another lean asset acquisition. The Giraffic deal adds to their cloud space, this is another smart acquisition. Also adding to ad revenue is the acquisition of&nbsp;dataxu, another good acquisition in our opinion. And finally,Dynastrom&nbsp;was an acquisition that adds to ROKU's engineering team.</p><p><blockquote>收购Old House Ventures是为了增加其内容并带来协同效应。如前所述，尼尔森为该平台带来了进一步的扩展，是另一项精益资产收购。Giraffic交易增加了他们的云空间，这是另一个明智的收购。收购 dataxu 也增加了广告收入，我们认为这是另一项不错的收购。最后， Dynastrom 的收购增加了 ROKU 的工程团队。</blockquote></p><p> If ROKU continues acquiring in this manner, it will increase the cash value of its future growth opportunities, this is very good for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>如果ROKU继续以这种方式收购，将增加其未来增长机会的现金价值，这对股东来说是非常好的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shareholder Value</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股东价值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf094989971e65038753abbf9d78cb33\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: GuruFocus</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：GuruFocus</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It remains in the balance as to whether there's a real drive towards shareholder value or not. The EPS is all over the place, which is understandable as many insiders might exercise options during high stock prices. The other side of it is that net income also has been surging. It remains to be seen what the EPS will do. Investors should note that ROKU has a&nbsp;dual-class voting structure, which dilutes shareholder voting rights over insider voting rights.</p><p><blockquote>至于是否有真正的股东价值驱动力，这仍然是一个平衡。每股收益无处不在，这是可以理解的，因为许多内部人士可能会在股价高企时行使期权。另一方面，净利润也一直在飙升。EPS会做什么还有待观察。投资者应注意，ROKU采用双层投票结构，稀释了股东投票权而非内部人士投票权。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Our Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> ROKU is a big gamble at the moment. The company is generating significant topline revenue, and cash flows are growing. If the company follows a similar acquisition strategy as big tech companies, the stock will thrive. If it uses its residual to little effect, the stock might plummet, especially considering the high price to sales and price to cash flow ratios. We're taking our chances nonetheless.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU目前是一场豪赌。该公司正在产生可观的营收，现金流也在增长。如果该公司遵循与大型科技公司类似的收购策略，该股将会蓬勃发展。如果它使用剩余资金收效甚微，股价可能会暴跌，特别是考虑到高市销率和市现金流比率。尽管如此，我们还是要碰碰运气。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437490-roku-the-next-step\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ROKU":"Roku Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437490-roku-the-next-step","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129664890","content_text":"Summary\n\nROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time.\nThe stock price depends on whether it uses the capital to the value of shareholders.\nAstronomical gains in top-line growth and cash flow are witnesses. However, high P/S and P/CF are still a concern.\nWe're risking it by going long as the early signs of acquisitions have been encouraging.\nTread lightly with the risks involved.\n\nArturo Holmes/Getty Images Entertainment\nOverview\nFor those who aren't aware, Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) is the leading TV streaming platform in the United States, with an active user base of over 50 million. The company partners with TV brands which allows it to manufacture and sell its content via its platform.\nThe company operates through two segments namely platform and player.\nThe platform segment allows users to gain access to television and movies. The player segment offers streaming players, audio products, and accessories through the ROKU name. Further to the business is significant ad revenue as most tech companies have these days.\nROKU is still in its growth stage and has gained significant traction from investors since listing on the Nasdaq in 2017.\nFinancials \nTop-Line\nROKU reported 63.46% in year-over-year revenue growth the past year. The company has a 5-year average growth rate in revenue of 40.9%, which ranks in the 99th sector percentile. ROKU's core business is growing well, with 101% year-over-year growth in revenue due to an increase in platform usage of 4.5% in the past quarter. We think that ad revenue will add sustainability to the firm's revenue as competition rises through improved products from Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)and Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)streaming services. ROKU has entered into a strategic alliance with Nielsen to access their ad content. ROKU also completed asset acquisitions in the deal by acquiring Nielsen's AVA and DAI technologies to improve content recognition and ad insertion.\nWe think that added efficiency and synergies will improve the sustainability of the company's earnings.\nUser Growth\nSource: Statista\nROKU has undoubtedly expanded rapidly during the lockdown, and this is an anomaly that can't be denied. But something worth looking at is the company's gradual increase before the pandemic. We don't think that ROKU is a one-hit-wonder by any stretch of the imagination, and user growth looks set to continue growing.\nSource: GuruFocus\nTo consolidate the argument, we've pulled up the return on invested capital chart. The ROIC is a good indicator of a company's competitive stance within an industry. The recent growth in ROIC indicates that ROKU is still expanding well in itsindustry. We think that increased third-party distributors and increased investment in the ROKU channels contributed immensely to the uptick in ROIC. Furthermore, factors such as Disney+ and NBC Universal Peacock, HBO Max, and Discovery+ have and will stimulate further user growth.\nBottom-Line\n\nVery important to us are net income and normalized net income. The reasons are that the company finally turned a profit in Q-1 and now has residual to work with. The factor is unusual items. ROKU's normalized net income excludes unusual earnings, the fact that they're still reporting positive normalized net income is a big plus.\nMultiples\nSeeing that ROKU is now profitable, we can apply a few multiples for analysis. To start with, we looked at the price to sales. This metric can be used at any stage of the business cycle. ROKU is in a growth phase, and we think it's not easy to interpret the other multiples without looking at this one first.(The base data can be found on Seeking Alpha)\n\nMarket Cap/Annual Sales = 10.27\n\nConsidering that we'd like to see a price to sales ratio of between 1 and 2, ROKU is trading at a premium. It has to be considered that sales are growing at an average rate of above 40% annually.\nAnother ratio we can look at is the price to cash flow, which is a great metric to use as cash flow resembles the intrinsic value.\n\nShare price/Cash flow per share = $460/$1.72 = 267.44\n\nAgain, this is a high multiple, and we'd like to see a price to cash flow ratio of between 15-20. ROKU has seen an unlevered free cash flow growth worth 181.51% over the last year but only has a free cash flow yield of 0.3%.\nThe cash flows are still too volatile to forecast the intrinsic value and leading P/E ratio.\n\nAnalysts expect massive upside in EPS but we think that this is fantasy. The main reason is the fact that the company now holds residual. Let's explain why.\nUse Of Residual\nEssential to any stock's valuation is the asset base. Sure ROKU will probably trade at a premium to its asset base due to intellectual property and other intangible assets. However, the fundamental asset base growth is significant, and we think that their M&A strategy will ultimately determine the stock's fate.\nLet's look at acquisition strategies.\nTo start off with, we'll discuss the importance of data and asset acquisitions for tech companies. Data and asset acquisitions allow for organic growth to be amplified due to the synergies. Purchasing the 'ready-made' innovation is much more effective than innovating from scratch yourself.\nSecondly, let's discuss verticals. Vertical integration allows for acquisitions up and down the value chain. These acquisitions allow for cost-cutting through bargaining power and pricing leadership in the market. If ROKU goes this way, they'll add tremendous value to their asset base.\nNow for horizontals. If ROKU chooses to acquire horizontally for the purpose of gaining market share and reducing potential competitors, they'll end up paying premiums and ending up in many litigation fights. Not very good for shareholders.\nOther uses of capital.\nROKU could simply increase its headcount and continue developing internally. This is also not a very efficient way of going about adding shareholder value. It's unlikely that the company will pay dividends and engage in share buyback programs at this stage as it's still in a growth phase.\nThe early signs are that they're completing asset purchases.\nSource: Crunchbase\nOld House Ventures was acquired to add to its content and bring synergies to the table. Nielsen, as discussed, brings further expansion to the platform and is another lean asset acquisition. The Giraffic deal adds to their cloud space, this is another smart acquisition. Also adding to ad revenue is the acquisition of dataxu, another good acquisition in our opinion. And finally,Dynastrom was an acquisition that adds to ROKU's engineering team.\nIf ROKU continues acquiring in this manner, it will increase the cash value of its future growth opportunities, this is very good for shareholders.\nShareholder Value\nSource: GuruFocus\nIt remains in the balance as to whether there's a real drive towards shareholder value or not. The EPS is all over the place, which is understandable as many insiders might exercise options during high stock prices. The other side of it is that net income also has been surging. It remains to be seen what the EPS will do. Investors should note that ROKU has a dual-class voting structure, which dilutes shareholder voting rights over insider voting rights.\nOur Take\nROKU is a big gamble at the moment. The company is generating significant topline revenue, and cash flows are growing. If the company follows a similar acquisition strategy as big tech companies, the stock will thrive. If it uses its residual to little effect, the stock might plummet, especially considering the high price to sales and price to cash flow ratios. We're taking our chances nonetheless.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ROKU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156540876,"gmtCreate":1625232450295,"gmtModify":1631889889463,"author":{"id":"3562662036291129","authorId":"3562662036291129","name":"Clarity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/290bda4a10a88bafe28971dd816e57cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562662036291129","authorIdStr":"3562662036291129"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156540876","repostId":"1126312436","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126312436","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625212145,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1126312436?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 15:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.<blockquote>股市上半年表现良好。可能导致它崩溃的3件事。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126312436","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the p","content":"<p>Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the party.</p><p><blockquote>今年股市无情地飙升。然而，有几个因素有可能结束聚会。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 has had its second-best first half of a year since 1998, and it hasn’t shown many signs of letting up. The index ended June up 14.4% year to date, hitting several records during the month and posting another record close on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>标普500今年上半年的表现是自 1998 年以来第二好的，而且并没有表现出太多放缓的迹象。该指数 6 月份迄今上涨 14.4%，当月创下多项纪录，并于周四创下收盘纪录。</blockquote></p><p> Yet there are a couple key risks that could turn all of that around, according to Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek.</p><p><blockquote>然而，DataTrek 联合创始人尼克·科拉斯 (Nick Colas) 表示，有几个关键风险可能会扭转这一切。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s the possibility of an oil price shock, as the price of crude has shown little sign of cooling off. WTI crude oil is up 56% year to date and notched a&nbsp;new multi-year high&nbsp;Thursday—even amid growing&nbsp;expectations that OPEC will increase supply. If oil prices run hot enough, that could raise inflation to a level that—if sustained — could cause consumer demand to fall and that could surpass Federal Reserve expectations.</p><p><blockquote>首先，油价有可能出现冲击，因为原油价格几乎没有降温的迹象。WTI 原油今年迄今已上涨 56%，并在周四创下多年新高——尽管人们越来越预期 OPEC 将增加供应。如果油价足够火爆，这可能会将通胀推高到一个水平，如果持续下去，可能会导致消费者需求下降，并可能超出美联储的预期。</blockquote></p><p> “Suddenly higher oil prices” is atop the list of stock market concerns for Colas. “Rapidly rising oil prices will cause U.S. inflation to overshoot the Fed’s desired outcome and also stress the American consumer.”</p><p><blockquote>“油价突然上涨 ”是 Colas 最关心的股市问题。“油价快速上涨将导致美国通胀超过美联储的预期结果，也会给美国消费者带来压力”。</blockquote></p><p> Both those things could dent the stock market, which has long benefited from the Fed’s accommodative monetary policy, especially if the Fed signals that interest-rate increases could come sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>这两件事都可能削弱长期以来受益于美联储宽松货币政策的股市，尤其是如果美联储发出加息可能比预期更早的信号。</blockquote></p><p> That means the Fed will need to tread carefully when discussing rates to avoid spooking the market, Colas says.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示，这意味着美联储在讨论利率时需要谨慎行事，以避免惊动市场。</blockquote></p><p> “Federal Reserve miscommunication about upcoming policy changes and/or raising interest rates too aggressively” is a second risk, Colas says. For instance, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;dived 18% over roughly three months in late 2018 as the Fed raised rates, despite the market’s hope at that time for rates to stay put.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯说：“美联储对即将到来的政策变化的沟通不畅和/或过于激进地加息”是第二个风险。例如，2018 年底，随着美联储加息，标普500在大约三个月的时间里暴跌了 18%，尽管当时市场希望利率保持不变。</blockquote></p><p> Peaking earnings growth is the other threat to stocks, Colas says. Earnings growth for the average S&amp;P 500 company is expected slow down to 11% in 2022 from 36% in 2021, according to FactSet, as the economy normalizes and the postpandemic recovery eases. But on average, S&amp;P 500 stocks trade at 21.5 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, still above the index’s pre-pandemic multiple. At some point, stocks valuations will need to better reflect the expected decline in earnings growth, which would mean falling stock prices.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示，盈利增长见顶是股市面临的另一个威胁。FactSet 的数据显示，随着经济正常化和大流行后复苏的缓解，标普500公司的平均盈利增长率预计将从 2021 年的 36% 放缓至 2022 年的 11%。但平均而言，标普500股市未来 12 个月的市盈率是预期市盈率的 21.5 倍，仍高于该指数大流行前的倍数。在某个时候，股票估值需要更好地反映盈利增长的预期下降，这将意味着股价下跌。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are high enough currently that peaking earnings could be a larger risk than before,” Colas writes.</p><p><blockquote>“科拉斯写道：”目前的估值已经足够高，盈利见顶的风险可能比以前更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.<blockquote>股市上半年表现良好。可能导致它崩溃的3件事。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.<blockquote>股市上半年表现良好。可能导致它崩溃的3件事。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-02 15:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the party.</p><p><blockquote>今年股市无情地飙升。然而，有几个因素有可能结束聚会。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 has had its second-best first half of a year since 1998, and it hasn’t shown many signs of letting up. The index ended June up 14.4% year to date, hitting several records during the month and posting another record close on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>标普500今年上半年的表现是自 1998 年以来第二好的，而且并没有表现出太多放缓的迹象。该指数 6 月份迄今上涨 14.4%，当月创下多项纪录，并于周四创下收盘纪录。</blockquote></p><p> Yet there are a couple key risks that could turn all of that around, according to Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek.</p><p><blockquote>然而，DataTrek 联合创始人尼克·科拉斯 (Nick Colas) 表示，有几个关键风险可能会扭转这一切。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s the possibility of an oil price shock, as the price of crude has shown little sign of cooling off. WTI crude oil is up 56% year to date and notched a&nbsp;new multi-year high&nbsp;Thursday—even amid growing&nbsp;expectations that OPEC will increase supply. If oil prices run hot enough, that could raise inflation to a level that—if sustained — could cause consumer demand to fall and that could surpass Federal Reserve expectations.</p><p><blockquote>首先，油价有可能出现冲击，因为原油价格几乎没有降温的迹象。WTI 原油今年迄今已上涨 56%，并在周四创下多年新高——尽管人们越来越预期 OPEC 将增加供应。如果油价足够火爆，这可能会将通胀推高到一个水平，如果持续下去，可能会导致消费者需求下降，并可能超出美联储的预期。</blockquote></p><p> “Suddenly higher oil prices” is atop the list of stock market concerns for Colas. “Rapidly rising oil prices will cause U.S. inflation to overshoot the Fed’s desired outcome and also stress the American consumer.”</p><p><blockquote>“油价突然上涨 ”是 Colas 最关心的股市问题。“油价快速上涨将导致美国通胀超过美联储的预期结果，也会给美国消费者带来压力”。</blockquote></p><p> Both those things could dent the stock market, which has long benefited from the Fed’s accommodative monetary policy, especially if the Fed signals that interest-rate increases could come sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>这两件事都可能削弱长期以来受益于美联储宽松货币政策的股市，尤其是如果美联储发出加息可能比预期更早的信号。</blockquote></p><p> That means the Fed will need to tread carefully when discussing rates to avoid spooking the market, Colas says.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示，这意味着美联储在讨论利率时需要谨慎行事，以避免惊动市场。</blockquote></p><p> “Federal Reserve miscommunication about upcoming policy changes and/or raising interest rates too aggressively” is a second risk, Colas says. For instance, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;dived 18% over roughly three months in late 2018 as the Fed raised rates, despite the market’s hope at that time for rates to stay put.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯说：“美联储对即将到来的政策变化的沟通不畅和/或过于激进地加息”是第二个风险。例如，2018 年底，随着美联储加息，标普500在大约三个月的时间里暴跌了 18%，尽管当时市场希望利率保持不变。</blockquote></p><p> Peaking earnings growth is the other threat to stocks, Colas says. Earnings growth for the average S&amp;P 500 company is expected slow down to 11% in 2022 from 36% in 2021, according to FactSet, as the economy normalizes and the postpandemic recovery eases. But on average, S&amp;P 500 stocks trade at 21.5 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, still above the index’s pre-pandemic multiple. At some point, stocks valuations will need to better reflect the expected decline in earnings growth, which would mean falling stock prices.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示，盈利增长见顶是股市面临的另一个威胁。FactSet 的数据显示，随着经济正常化和大流行后复苏的缓解，标普500公司的平均盈利增长率预计将从 2021 年的 36% 放缓至 2022 年的 11%。但平均而言，标普500股市未来 12 个月的市盈率是预期市盈率的 21.5 倍，仍高于该指数大流行前的倍数。在某个时候，股票估值需要更好地反映盈利增长的预期下降，这将意味着股价下跌。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are high enough currently that peaking earnings could be a larger risk than before,” Colas writes.</p><p><blockquote>“科拉斯写道：”目前的估值已经足够高，盈利见顶的风险可能比以前更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-crash-risks-51625174065\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-crash-risks-51625174065","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126312436","content_text":"Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the party.\nThe S&P 500 has had its second-best first half of a year since 1998, and it hasn’t shown many signs of letting up. The index ended June up 14.4% year to date, hitting several records during the month and posting another record close on Thursday.\nYet there are a couple key risks that could turn all of that around, according to Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek.\nFirst, there’s the possibility of an oil price shock, as the price of crude has shown little sign of cooling off. WTI crude oil is up 56% year to date and notched a new multi-year high Thursday—even amid growing expectations that OPEC will increase supply. If oil prices run hot enough, that could raise inflation to a level that—if sustained — could cause consumer demand to fall and that could surpass Federal Reserve expectations.\n“Suddenly higher oil prices” is atop the list of stock market concerns for Colas. “Rapidly rising oil prices will cause U.S. inflation to overshoot the Fed’s desired outcome and also stress the American consumer.”\nBoth those things could dent the stock market, which has long benefited from the Fed’s accommodative monetary policy, especially if the Fed signals that interest-rate increases could come sooner than expected.\nThat means the Fed will need to tread carefully when discussing rates to avoid spooking the market, Colas says.\n“Federal Reserve miscommunication about upcoming policy changes and/or raising interest rates too aggressively” is a second risk, Colas says. For instance, the S&P 500 dived 18% over roughly three months in late 2018 as the Fed raised rates, despite the market’s hope at that time for rates to stay put.\nPeaking earnings growth is the other threat to stocks, Colas says. Earnings growth for the average S&P 500 company is expected slow down to 11% in 2022 from 36% in 2021, according to FactSet, as the economy normalizes and the postpandemic recovery eases. But on average, S&P 500 stocks trade at 21.5 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, still above the index’s pre-pandemic multiple. At some point, stocks valuations will need to better reflect the expected decline in earnings growth, which would mean falling stock prices.\n“Valuations are high enough currently that peaking earnings could be a larger risk than before,” Colas writes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158136970,"gmtCreate":1625135111590,"gmtModify":1631892202528,"author":{"id":"3562662036291129","authorId":"3562662036291129","name":"Clarity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/290bda4a10a88bafe28971dd816e57cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562662036291129","authorIdStr":"3562662036291129"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Nice [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Nice [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158136970","repostId":"1106223449","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106223449","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625122086,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1106223449?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 14:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.<blockquote>标普500创下了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106223449","media":"Barrons","summary":"Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.\nThe S&P 5","content":"<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d70d0323609e9ce596a9a90e475422d1\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Since 1979, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>自1979年以来，标普500在上半年上涨了14次10%或以上。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 closed its second-best first half since the dot-com bubble. Don’t be surprised if the stock market keeps on rising.</p><p><blockquote>标普500结束了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年。如果股市持续上涨，请不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> With June coming to an end, the S&amp;P 500 finished the first half of 2021 with a gain of 14.4%. Since 1998, only 2019’s 17.4% first-half surge has been larger.</p><p><blockquote>随着6月份即将结束，标普500 2021年上半年上涨14.4%。自1998年以来，只有2019年上半年17.4%的增幅更大。</blockquote></p><p> The market got a boost from Covid-19 vaccinations, which have helped the U.S. economy reopen, while trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus have helped shore up demand. The gains continued even as concerns about inflation have increased speculation that the Federal Reserve would be forced to take steps to slow the economy.</p><p><blockquote>新冠肺炎疫苗接种提振了市场，帮助美国经济重新开放，而数万亿美元的财政刺激措施则帮助支撑了需求。尽管对通胀的担忧加剧了人们对美联储将被迫采取措施减缓经济的猜测，但涨幅仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> The combination of big gains and a more hawkish Fed have raised concerns that the market has become too complacent. If inflation continues to run hot for long enough, the central bank could be forced to act more quickly than the market expects—and&nbsp;cause stocks to tumble. Others worry that&nbsp;U.S. economic growth could slow faster than investors anticipate, causing a pullback in the process.</p><p><blockquote>大幅上涨和更加鹰派的美联储相结合，引发了人们对市场变得过于自满的担忧。如果通胀持续足够长的时间，央行可能会被迫比市场预期更快地采取行动，并导致股市暴跌。其他人担心美国。经济增长可能比投资者预期的放缓得更快，导致这一过程出现回调。</blockquote></p><p> For those who take that view, there is no better time to back away from the stock market than the present. History suggests otherwise.</p><p><blockquote>对于持这种观点的人来说，没有比现在更好的退出股市的时机了。历史表明并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1979, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year, and the index has gone on to average a 6.3% gain over the second half of the year. What’s more, the index finished the second half of the year higher In 11 of those instances, or 79% of the time.</p><p><blockquote>自1979年以来，标普500上半年有14次上涨10%或以上，下半年该指数平均上涨6.3%。更重要的是，该指数在下半年收盘时有 11 个，即 79%。</blockquote></p><p> Even the losses, when they occurred, weren’t all that bad. The S&amp;P 500 dropped 1.9% in the second half of 1983 and 3.5% during the last six months of 1986.</p><p><blockquote>即使是损失发生时，也并没有那么糟糕。标普500在1983年下半年下降了1.9%，在1986年最后六个月下降了3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The one exception was the last six months of 1987 when the index fell 19% during the second half of the year. That period included Black Monday, when the S&amp;P 500 dropped 20% in one day, still a record loss. While selling linked to so-called&nbsp;portfolio insurance&nbsp;was ultimately blamed for the size and speed of the loss, the second half of 1987 was&nbsp;a period of rising bond yields and high stock-market valuations, just like the first half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>唯一的例外是1987年的最后六个月，该指数在该年下半年下跌了19%。那段时间包括黑色星期一，标普500一天之内下跌了20%，仍然是创纪录的跌幅。虽然与所谓的投资组合保险相关的抛售最终被归咎于损失的规模和速度，但1987年下半年是债券收益率上升和股市估值高的时期，就像2021年上半年一样。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the market has been acting like it wants to go higher, not lower. Pullbacks, a normal event in the midst of bull runs, have been mild in 2021, with the largest drops being less than 4%. “What the [S&amp;P 500] has done throughout 2021 is pick itself up when and where it has needed to, maintaining an uptrend all along,” writes Frank&nbsp;Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，市场一直表现得好像想要走高，而不是走低。回调是牛市中的正常事件，2021 年的回调幅度较小，最大跌幅不到 4%。“Instinet 首席市场技术员 Frank Cappelleri 写道：”[标普500]在整个 2021 年所做的就是在需要的时间和地点重新振作起来，始终保持上升趋势。</blockquote></p><p> That 6.3% average second-half rise would push the S&amp;P 500’s full-year gain to around 23%. That would represent a “textbook [market] recovery” from a recession, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.</p><p><blockquote>下半年平均涨幅为 6.3%，这将使标普500全年涨幅达到 23% 左右。Fundstrat 的汤姆-李（Tom Lee）说，这将代表着经济衰退中的 “教科书式[市场]复苏”。</blockquote></p><p> For now, at least, the path of least resistance is higher.</p><p><blockquote>至少目前来看，阻力最小的路径更高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb229b2e05d59b9c126d464a7d771bb\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"647\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.<blockquote>标普500创下了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.<blockquote>标普500创下了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 14:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d70d0323609e9ce596a9a90e475422d1\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Since 1979, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>自1979年以来，标普500在上半年上涨了14次10%或以上。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 closed its second-best first half since the dot-com bubble. Don’t be surprised if the stock market keeps on rising.</p><p><blockquote>标普500结束了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年。如果股市持续上涨，请不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> With June coming to an end, the S&amp;P 500 finished the first half of 2021 with a gain of 14.4%. Since 1998, only 2019’s 17.4% first-half surge has been larger.</p><p><blockquote>随着6月份即将结束，标普500 2021年上半年上涨14.4%。自1998年以来，只有2019年上半年17.4%的增幅更大。</blockquote></p><p> The market got a boost from Covid-19 vaccinations, which have helped the U.S. economy reopen, while trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus have helped shore up demand. The gains continued even as concerns about inflation have increased speculation that the Federal Reserve would be forced to take steps to slow the economy.</p><p><blockquote>新冠肺炎疫苗接种提振了市场，帮助美国经济重新开放，而数万亿美元的财政刺激措施则帮助支撑了需求。尽管对通胀的担忧加剧了人们对美联储将被迫采取措施减缓经济的猜测，但涨幅仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> The combination of big gains and a more hawkish Fed have raised concerns that the market has become too complacent. If inflation continues to run hot for long enough, the central bank could be forced to act more quickly than the market expects—and&nbsp;cause stocks to tumble. Others worry that&nbsp;U.S. economic growth could slow faster than investors anticipate, causing a pullback in the process.</p><p><blockquote>大幅上涨和更加鹰派的美联储相结合，引发了人们对市场变得过于自满的担忧。如果通胀持续足够长的时间，央行可能会被迫比市场预期更快地采取行动，并导致股市暴跌。其他人担心美国。经济增长可能比投资者预期的放缓得更快，导致这一过程出现回调。</blockquote></p><p> For those who take that view, there is no better time to back away from the stock market than the present. History suggests otherwise.</p><p><blockquote>对于持这种观点的人来说，没有比现在更好的退出股市的时机了。历史表明并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1979, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year, and the index has gone on to average a 6.3% gain over the second half of the year. What’s more, the index finished the second half of the year higher In 11 of those instances, or 79% of the time.</p><p><blockquote>自1979年以来，标普500上半年有14次上涨10%或以上，下半年该指数平均上涨6.3%。更重要的是，该指数在下半年收盘时有 11 个，即 79%。</blockquote></p><p> Even the losses, when they occurred, weren’t all that bad. The S&amp;P 500 dropped 1.9% in the second half of 1983 and 3.5% during the last six months of 1986.</p><p><blockquote>即使是损失发生时，也并没有那么糟糕。标普500在1983年下半年下降了1.9%，在1986年最后六个月下降了3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The one exception was the last six months of 1987 when the index fell 19% during the second half of the year. That period included Black Monday, when the S&amp;P 500 dropped 20% in one day, still a record loss. While selling linked to so-called&nbsp;portfolio insurance&nbsp;was ultimately blamed for the size and speed of the loss, the second half of 1987 was&nbsp;a period of rising bond yields and high stock-market valuations, just like the first half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>唯一的例外是1987年的最后六个月，该指数在该年下半年下跌了19%。那段时间包括黑色星期一，标普500一天之内下跌了20%，仍然是创纪录的跌幅。虽然与所谓的投资组合保险相关的抛售最终被归咎于损失的规模和速度，但1987年下半年是债券收益率上升和股市估值高的时期，就像2021年上半年一样。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the market has been acting like it wants to go higher, not lower. Pullbacks, a normal event in the midst of bull runs, have been mild in 2021, with the largest drops being less than 4%. “What the [S&amp;P 500] has done throughout 2021 is pick itself up when and where it has needed to, maintaining an uptrend all along,” writes Frank&nbsp;Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，市场一直表现得好像想要走高，而不是走低。回调是牛市中的正常事件，2021 年的回调幅度较小，最大跌幅不到 4%。“Instinet 首席市场技术员 Frank Cappelleri 写道：”[标普500]在整个 2021 年所做的就是在需要的时间和地点重新振作起来，始终保持上升趋势。</blockquote></p><p> That 6.3% average second-half rise would push the S&amp;P 500’s full-year gain to around 23%. That would represent a “textbook [market] recovery” from a recession, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.</p><p><blockquote>下半年平均涨幅为 6.3%，这将使标普500全年涨幅达到 23% 左右。Fundstrat 的汤姆-李（Tom Lee）说，这将代表着经济衰退中的 “教科书式[市场]复苏”。</blockquote></p><p> For now, at least, the path of least resistance is higher.</p><p><blockquote>至少目前来看，阻力最小的路径更高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb229b2e05d59b9c126d464a7d771bb\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"647\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-futures-crash-gains-51625071996?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-futures-crash-gains-51625071996?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106223449","content_text":"Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.\nThe S&P 500 closed its second-best first half since the dot-com bubble. Don’t be surprised if the stock market keeps on rising.\nWith June coming to an end, the S&P 500 finished the first half of 2021 with a gain of 14.4%. Since 1998, only 2019’s 17.4% first-half surge has been larger.\nThe market got a boost from Covid-19 vaccinations, which have helped the U.S. economy reopen, while trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus have helped shore up demand. The gains continued even as concerns about inflation have increased speculation that the Federal Reserve would be forced to take steps to slow the economy.\nThe combination of big gains and a more hawkish Fed have raised concerns that the market has become too complacent. If inflation continues to run hot for long enough, the central bank could be forced to act more quickly than the market expects—and cause stocks to tumble. Others worry that U.S. economic growth could slow faster than investors anticipate, causing a pullback in the process.\nFor those who take that view, there is no better time to back away from the stock market than the present. History suggests otherwise.\nSince 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year, and the index has gone on to average a 6.3% gain over the second half of the year. What’s more, the index finished the second half of the year higher In 11 of those instances, or 79% of the time.\nEven the losses, when they occurred, weren’t all that bad. The S&P 500 dropped 1.9% in the second half of 1983 and 3.5% during the last six months of 1986.\nThe one exception was the last six months of 1987 when the index fell 19% during the second half of the year. That period included Black Monday, when the S&P 500 dropped 20% in one day, still a record loss. While selling linked to so-called portfolio insurance was ultimately blamed for the size and speed of the loss, the second half of 1987 was a period of rising bond yields and high stock-market valuations, just like the first half of 2021.\nStill, the market has been acting like it wants to go higher, not lower. Pullbacks, a normal event in the midst of bull runs, have been mild in 2021, with the largest drops being less than 4%. “What the [S&P 500] has done throughout 2021 is pick itself up when and where it has needed to, maintaining an uptrend all along,” writes Frank Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet.\nThat 6.3% average second-half rise would push the S&P 500’s full-year gain to around 23%. That would represent a “textbook [market] recovery” from a recession, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.\nFor now, at least, the path of least resistance is higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153579489,"gmtCreate":1625039300941,"gmtModify":1631892202532,"author":{"id":"3562662036291129","authorId":"3562662036291129","name":"Clarity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/290bda4a10a88bafe28971dd816e57cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562662036291129","authorIdStr":"3562662036291129"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser] 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[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166300325","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中拥有多种增长动力，这使得其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会随着潜在的双底价格行动信号而转向看涨。</li><li>我们将讨论公司的多重增长动力，让投资者自己判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永元/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自 11 月 20 日初蚂蚁金服 IPO 被撤销以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价经历了可怕的 8 个月，该股在低迷中萎靡不振，较高点下跌了 34%。在考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显，阿里巴巴具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且在其关键的 50W 均线上总体上得到了良好的支撑。在过去 4 年中，它唯一一次失去关键的 50W MA 支撑位是在 2018 年熊市期间，当时阿里巴巴下跌了约 40%，但仍在重要的 200W MA 上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是 “最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA以上得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像 2018 年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平可能是一个可能的技术性买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩张的增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度电子商务收入。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV从1.68吨人民币增长到7.49吨人民币，仅用了7年时间，复合年增长率达到了23.8%，增长率着实惊人。我们还看到其 GMV 增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从 76.7 亿元人民币增长到 473.68 亿元人民币，过去 10 年的复合年增长率为 51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然小得多，但在过去10年中，其CAGR仍以30.42%的速度增长，这绝不是缓慢的。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度预计将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为 12.4%，从 2021 年的 13.8 万亿元人民币（相当于 2.16 万亿元人民币）下降到 2024 年的 19.6 万亿元人民币（相当于 3.06 万亿元人民币），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将中国市场的增长率和规模与美国电子商务市场进行比较时，我们可以看到它们在规模和增长率上的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场从 2021 年到 2025 年的复合年增长率预计仅为 4.67%，大大低于中国的 12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约 5630 亿美元，相当于届时中国市场预期价值的 18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自其快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克股票代码：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经经营着一项利润更高的业务（息税前税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计将继续实现强劲的盈利能力展望未来，这将为该公司提供巨大的灵活性，以与京东和PDD正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到了其 SG&amp;A 中反映的 27.82 亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率向下倾斜。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个重要举措是公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是 PDD 的主要电子商务战略，PDD 在最近一个季度共获得了 8.23 亿 AAC，而阿里巴巴的 8.91 亿 AAC。考虑到 2017 年第二季度 PDD 的 AAC 数量仅为 1 亿，而同期阿里巴巴的 AAC 数量为 4.66 亿，PDD 的 AAC 增长确实惊人。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转移到社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出它的大枪（它已经拥有）来与PDD和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到 2022 年 1020 亿元人民币的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴 21 财年中国商业收入的 21.5% 左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过 2019 年至 2022 年 3 年间 44.22% 的快速复合年增长率。虽然这个市场还比较小，但阿里巴巴不能让这个市场目前的领头羊：PDD在众人不知情的情况下，如此轻易地占据主导地位，吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取其在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止PDD扩大其领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中我们可以观察到，PDD 预计将在未来几年继续快速增长其收入，尽管预计随后将恢复正常。更重要的是，PDD 预计未来还将不断提高其息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力。这表明，社区市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势加以利用，才能在游戏初期否认 PDD 无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公共云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；通道</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：CAICT；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公共云市场占有 40% 的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管阿里巴巴处于领先地位，但阿里巴巴仍处于大量投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从 2017 年的 264.8 亿元人民币增长到 2023 年的 2307.4 亿元人民币，复合年增长率将达到 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的惊人增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤为明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从 2017 年的 1450 亿美元增长到 2022 年的 3970 亿美元，复合年增长率将达到 22.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。资料来源：CnTechPost；高德纳</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在 2020 年以 9.5% 的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）GCP 的领先优势，我并不感到惊讶。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场的明显领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。虽然阿里巴巴的云业务尚未实现息税前利润（21 财年息税前利润率：-15%，20 财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的 GCP 也没有实现盈利（20 财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19 财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务，预计阿里巴巴将在这些地区拥有更强大的领导地位，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常有说服力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/息税前利润3年范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>电动汽车/前轮驱动息税前利润和电动汽车/前轮驱动转速趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到阿里巴巴的 TEV / EBIT 历史范围（3 年平均值为 33.54 倍）时，阿里巴巴的 EV / Fwd EBIT 趋势无疑意味着该股被严重低估，因为阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍有望快速增长。不过，由于我们希望更清楚地了解阿里巴巴的息税前利润是如何估值的，因此我们认为，如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，这将是有用的，如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史息税前利润和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司的一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的电动汽车/息税前利润看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴在区间中点的公允价值区间为 294.98 美元，基于当前 210 美元的股价，这代表着 40.5% 的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着 Mr.市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场计划和不断增长的阿里云部门等仍有很大的潜在上涨空间。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因仅仅是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该认识到这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。关键在于，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有巨大的影响力，而这些行为和行动有时在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能因此大幅打折阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长征程中的一个昙花一现，那么你一定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续交付稳健的业绩，证明了该公司良好执行的强大能力。由于公司将继续在一个拥有众多增长动力的市场中运营，这些增长动力有望推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现目前的估值极具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中拥有多种增长动力，这使得其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会随着潜在的双底价格行动信号而转向看涨。</li><li>我们将讨论公司的多重增长动力，让投资者自己判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永元/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自 11 月 20 日初蚂蚁金服 IPO 被撤销以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价经历了可怕的 8 个月，该股在低迷中萎靡不振，较高点下跌了 34%。在考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显，阿里巴巴具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且在其关键的 50W 均线上总体上得到了良好的支撑。在过去 4 年中，它唯一一次失去关键的 50W MA 支撑位是在 2018 年熊市期间，当时阿里巴巴下跌了约 40%，但仍在重要的 200W MA 上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是 “最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA以上得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像 2018 年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平可能是一个可能的技术性买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩张的增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度电子商务收入。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV从1.68吨人民币增长到7.49吨人民币，仅用了7年时间，复合年增长率达到了23.8%，增长率着实惊人。我们还看到其 GMV 增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从 76.7 亿元人民币增长到 473.68 亿元人民币，过去 10 年的复合年增长率为 51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然小得多，但在过去10年中，其CAGR仍以30.42%的速度增长，这绝不是缓慢的。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度预计将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为 12.4%，从 2021 年的 13.8 万亿元人民币（相当于 2.16 万亿元人民币）下降到 2024 年的 19.6 万亿元人民币（相当于 3.06 万亿元人民币），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将中国市场的增长率和规模与美国电子商务市场进行比较时，我们可以看到它们在规模和增长率上的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场从 2021 年到 2025 年的复合年增长率预计仅为 4.67%，大大低于中国的 12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约 5630 亿美元，相当于届时中国市场预期价值的 18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自其快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克股票代码：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经经营着一项利润更高的业务（息税前税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计将继续实现强劲的盈利能力展望未来，这将为该公司提供巨大的灵活性，以与京东和PDD正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到了其 SG&amp;A 中反映的 27.82 亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率向下倾斜。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个重要举措是公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是 PDD 的主要电子商务战略，PDD 在最近一个季度共获得了 8.23 亿 AAC，而阿里巴巴的 8.91 亿 AAC。考虑到 2017 年第二季度 PDD 的 AAC 数量仅为 1 亿，而同期阿里巴巴的 AAC 数量为 4.66 亿，PDD 的 AAC 增长确实惊人。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转移到社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出它的大枪（它已经拥有）来与PDD和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到 2022 年 1020 亿元人民币的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴 21 财年中国商业收入的 21.5% 左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过 2019 年至 2022 年 3 年间 44.22% 的快速复合年增长率。虽然这个市场还比较小，但阿里巴巴不能让这个市场目前的领头羊：PDD在众人不知情的情况下，如此轻易地占据主导地位，吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取其在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止PDD扩大其领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中我们可以观察到，PDD 预计将在未来几年继续快速增长其收入，尽管预计随后将恢复正常。更重要的是，PDD 预计未来还将不断提高其息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力。这表明，社区市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势加以利用，才能在游戏初期否认 PDD 无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公共云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；通道</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：CAICT；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公共云市场占有 40% 的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管阿里巴巴处于领先地位，但阿里巴巴仍处于大量投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从 2017 年的 264.8 亿元人民币增长到 2023 年的 2307.4 亿元人民币，复合年增长率将达到 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的惊人增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤为明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从 2017 年的 1450 亿美元增长到 2022 年的 3970 亿美元，复合年增长率将达到 22.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。资料来源：CnTechPost；高德纳</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在 2020 年以 9.5% 的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）GCP 的领先优势，我并不感到惊讶。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场的明显领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。虽然阿里巴巴的云业务尚未实现息税前利润（21 财年息税前利润率：-15%，20 财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的 GCP 也没有实现盈利（20 财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19 财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务，预计阿里巴巴将在这些地区拥有更强大的领导地位，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常有说服力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/息税前利润3年范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>电动汽车/前轮驱动息税前利润和电动汽车/前轮驱动转速趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到阿里巴巴的 TEV / EBIT 历史范围（3 年平均值为 33.54 倍）时，阿里巴巴的 EV / Fwd EBIT 趋势无疑意味着该股被严重低估，因为阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍有望快速增长。不过，由于我们希望更清楚地了解阿里巴巴的息税前利润是如何估值的，因此我们认为，如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，这将是有用的，如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史息税前利润和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司的一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的电动汽车/息税前利润看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴在区间中点的公允价值区间为 294.98 美元，基于当前 210 美元的股价，这代表着 40.5% 的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着 Mr.市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场计划和不断增长的阿里云部门等仍有很大的潜在上涨空间。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因仅仅是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该认识到这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。关键在于，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有巨大的影响力，而这些行为和行动有时在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能因此大幅打折阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长征程中的一个昙花一现，那么你一定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续交付稳健的业绩，证明了该公司良好执行的强大能力。由于公司将继续在一个拥有众多增长动力的市场中运营，这些增长动力有望推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现目前的估值极具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":918,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166977391,"gmtCreate":1623990180213,"gmtModify":1631892202556,"author":{"id":"3562662036291129","authorId":"3562662036291129","name":"Clarity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/290bda4a10a88bafe28971dd816e57cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562662036291129","authorIdStr":"3562662036291129"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser] 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[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140293628","repostId":"1146581808","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158136970,"gmtCreate":1625135111590,"gmtModify":1631892202528,"author":{"id":"3562662036291129","authorId":"3562662036291129","name":"Clarity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/290bda4a10a88bafe28971dd816e57cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562662036291129","authorIdStr":"3562662036291129"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Nice [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Nice [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158136970","repostId":"1106223449","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106223449","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625122086,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1106223449?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 14:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.<blockquote>标普500创下了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106223449","media":"Barrons","summary":"Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.\nThe S&P 5","content":"<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d70d0323609e9ce596a9a90e475422d1\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Since 1979, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>自1979年以来，标普500在上半年上涨了14次10%或以上。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 closed its second-best first half since the dot-com bubble. Don’t be surprised if the stock market keeps on rising.</p><p><blockquote>标普500结束了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年。如果股市持续上涨，请不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> With June coming to an end, the S&amp;P 500 finished the first half of 2021 with a gain of 14.4%. Since 1998, only 2019’s 17.4% first-half surge has been larger.</p><p><blockquote>随着6月份即将结束，标普500 2021年上半年上涨14.4%。自1998年以来，只有2019年上半年17.4%的增幅更大。</blockquote></p><p> The market got a boost from Covid-19 vaccinations, which have helped the U.S. economy reopen, while trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus have helped shore up demand. The gains continued even as concerns about inflation have increased speculation that the Federal Reserve would be forced to take steps to slow the economy.</p><p><blockquote>新冠肺炎疫苗接种提振了市场，帮助美国经济重新开放，而数万亿美元的财政刺激措施则帮助支撑了需求。尽管对通胀的担忧加剧了人们对美联储将被迫采取措施减缓经济的猜测，但涨幅仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> The combination of big gains and a more hawkish Fed have raised concerns that the market has become too complacent. If inflation continues to run hot for long enough, the central bank could be forced to act more quickly than the market expects—and&nbsp;cause stocks to tumble. Others worry that&nbsp;U.S. economic growth could slow faster than investors anticipate, causing a pullback in the process.</p><p><blockquote>大幅上涨和更加鹰派的美联储相结合，引发了人们对市场变得过于自满的担忧。如果通胀持续足够长的时间，央行可能会被迫比市场预期更快地采取行动，并导致股市暴跌。其他人担心美国。经济增长可能比投资者预期的放缓得更快，导致这一过程出现回调。</blockquote></p><p> For those who take that view, there is no better time to back away from the stock market than the present. History suggests otherwise.</p><p><blockquote>对于持这种观点的人来说，没有比现在更好的退出股市的时机了。历史表明并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1979, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year, and the index has gone on to average a 6.3% gain over the second half of the year. What’s more, the index finished the second half of the year higher In 11 of those instances, or 79% of the time.</p><p><blockquote>自1979年以来，标普500上半年有14次上涨10%或以上，下半年该指数平均上涨6.3%。更重要的是，该指数在下半年收盘时有 11 个，即 79%。</blockquote></p><p> Even the losses, when they occurred, weren’t all that bad. The S&amp;P 500 dropped 1.9% in the second half of 1983 and 3.5% during the last six months of 1986.</p><p><blockquote>即使是损失发生时，也并没有那么糟糕。标普500在1983年下半年下降了1.9%，在1986年最后六个月下降了3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The one exception was the last six months of 1987 when the index fell 19% during the second half of the year. That period included Black Monday, when the S&amp;P 500 dropped 20% in one day, still a record loss. While selling linked to so-called&nbsp;portfolio insurance&nbsp;was ultimately blamed for the size and speed of the loss, the second half of 1987 was&nbsp;a period of rising bond yields and high stock-market valuations, just like the first half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>唯一的例外是1987年的最后六个月，该指数在该年下半年下跌了19%。那段时间包括黑色星期一，标普500一天之内下跌了20%，仍然是创纪录的跌幅。虽然与所谓的投资组合保险相关的抛售最终被归咎于损失的规模和速度，但1987年下半年是债券收益率上升和股市估值高的时期，就像2021年上半年一样。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the market has been acting like it wants to go higher, not lower. Pullbacks, a normal event in the midst of bull runs, have been mild in 2021, with the largest drops being less than 4%. “What the [S&amp;P 500] has done throughout 2021 is pick itself up when and where it has needed to, maintaining an uptrend all along,” writes Frank&nbsp;Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，市场一直表现得好像想要走高，而不是走低。回调是牛市中的正常事件，2021 年的回调幅度较小，最大跌幅不到 4%。“Instinet 首席市场技术员 Frank Cappelleri 写道：”[标普500]在整个 2021 年所做的就是在需要的时间和地点重新振作起来，始终保持上升趋势。</blockquote></p><p> That 6.3% average second-half rise would push the S&amp;P 500’s full-year gain to around 23%. That would represent a “textbook [market] recovery” from a recession, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.</p><p><blockquote>下半年平均涨幅为 6.3%，这将使标普500全年涨幅达到 23% 左右。Fundstrat 的汤姆-李（Tom Lee）说，这将代表着经济衰退中的 “教科书式[市场]复苏”。</blockquote></p><p> For now, at least, the path of least resistance is higher.</p><p><blockquote>至少目前来看，阻力最小的路径更高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb229b2e05d59b9c126d464a7d771bb\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"647\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.<blockquote>标普500创下了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.<blockquote>标普500创下了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 14:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d70d0323609e9ce596a9a90e475422d1\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Since 1979, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>自1979年以来，标普500在上半年上涨了14次10%或以上。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 closed its second-best first half since the dot-com bubble. Don’t be surprised if the stock market keeps on rising.</p><p><blockquote>标普500结束了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年。如果股市持续上涨，请不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> With June coming to an end, the S&amp;P 500 finished the first half of 2021 with a gain of 14.4%. Since 1998, only 2019’s 17.4% first-half surge has been larger.</p><p><blockquote>随着6月份即将结束，标普500 2021年上半年上涨14.4%。自1998年以来，只有2019年上半年17.4%的增幅更大。</blockquote></p><p> The market got a boost from Covid-19 vaccinations, which have helped the U.S. economy reopen, while trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus have helped shore up demand. The gains continued even as concerns about inflation have increased speculation that the Federal Reserve would be forced to take steps to slow the economy.</p><p><blockquote>新冠肺炎疫苗接种提振了市场，帮助美国经济重新开放，而数万亿美元的财政刺激措施则帮助支撑了需求。尽管对通胀的担忧加剧了人们对美联储将被迫采取措施减缓经济的猜测，但涨幅仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> The combination of big gains and a more hawkish Fed have raised concerns that the market has become too complacent. If inflation continues to run hot for long enough, the central bank could be forced to act more quickly than the market expects—and&nbsp;cause stocks to tumble. Others worry that&nbsp;U.S. economic growth could slow faster than investors anticipate, causing a pullback in the process.</p><p><blockquote>大幅上涨和更加鹰派的美联储相结合，引发了人们对市场变得过于自满的担忧。如果通胀持续足够长的时间，央行可能会被迫比市场预期更快地采取行动，并导致股市暴跌。其他人担心美国。经济增长可能比投资者预期的放缓得更快，导致这一过程出现回调。</blockquote></p><p> For those who take that view, there is no better time to back away from the stock market than the present. History suggests otherwise.</p><p><blockquote>对于持这种观点的人来说，没有比现在更好的退出股市的时机了。历史表明并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1979, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year, and the index has gone on to average a 6.3% gain over the second half of the year. What’s more, the index finished the second half of the year higher In 11 of those instances, or 79% of the time.</p><p><blockquote>自1979年以来，标普500上半年有14次上涨10%或以上，下半年该指数平均上涨6.3%。更重要的是，该指数在下半年收盘时有 11 个，即 79%。</blockquote></p><p> Even the losses, when they occurred, weren’t all that bad. The S&amp;P 500 dropped 1.9% in the second half of 1983 and 3.5% during the last six months of 1986.</p><p><blockquote>即使是损失发生时，也并没有那么糟糕。标普500在1983年下半年下降了1.9%，在1986年最后六个月下降了3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The one exception was the last six months of 1987 when the index fell 19% during the second half of the year. That period included Black Monday, when the S&amp;P 500 dropped 20% in one day, still a record loss. While selling linked to so-called&nbsp;portfolio insurance&nbsp;was ultimately blamed for the size and speed of the loss, the second half of 1987 was&nbsp;a period of rising bond yields and high stock-market valuations, just like the first half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>唯一的例外是1987年的最后六个月，该指数在该年下半年下跌了19%。那段时间包括黑色星期一，标普500一天之内下跌了20%，仍然是创纪录的跌幅。虽然与所谓的投资组合保险相关的抛售最终被归咎于损失的规模和速度，但1987年下半年是债券收益率上升和股市估值高的时期，就像2021年上半年一样。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the market has been acting like it wants to go higher, not lower. Pullbacks, a normal event in the midst of bull runs, have been mild in 2021, with the largest drops being less than 4%. “What the [S&amp;P 500] has done throughout 2021 is pick itself up when and where it has needed to, maintaining an uptrend all along,” writes Frank&nbsp;Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，市场一直表现得好像想要走高，而不是走低。回调是牛市中的正常事件，2021 年的回调幅度较小，最大跌幅不到 4%。“Instinet 首席市场技术员 Frank Cappelleri 写道：”[标普500]在整个 2021 年所做的就是在需要的时间和地点重新振作起来，始终保持上升趋势。</blockquote></p><p> That 6.3% average second-half rise would push the S&amp;P 500’s full-year gain to around 23%. That would represent a “textbook [market] recovery” from a recession, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.</p><p><blockquote>下半年平均涨幅为 6.3%，这将使标普500全年涨幅达到 23% 左右。Fundstrat 的汤姆-李（Tom Lee）说，这将代表着经济衰退中的 “教科书式[市场]复苏”。</blockquote></p><p> For now, at least, the path of least resistance is higher.</p><p><blockquote>至少目前来看，阻力最小的路径更高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb229b2e05d59b9c126d464a7d771bb\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"647\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-futures-crash-gains-51625071996?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-futures-crash-gains-51625071996?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106223449","content_text":"Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.\nThe S&P 500 closed its second-best first half since the dot-com bubble. Don’t be surprised if the stock market keeps on rising.\nWith June coming to an end, the S&P 500 finished the first half of 2021 with a gain of 14.4%. Since 1998, only 2019’s 17.4% first-half surge has been larger.\nThe market got a boost from Covid-19 vaccinations, which have helped the U.S. economy reopen, while trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus have helped shore up demand. The gains continued even as concerns about inflation have increased speculation that the Federal Reserve would be forced to take steps to slow the economy.\nThe combination of big gains and a more hawkish Fed have raised concerns that the market has become too complacent. If inflation continues to run hot for long enough, the central bank could be forced to act more quickly than the market expects—and cause stocks to tumble. Others worry that U.S. economic growth could slow faster than investors anticipate, causing a pullback in the process.\nFor those who take that view, there is no better time to back away from the stock market than the present. History suggests otherwise.\nSince 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year, and the index has gone on to average a 6.3% gain over the second half of the year. What’s more, the index finished the second half of the year higher In 11 of those instances, or 79% of the time.\nEven the losses, when they occurred, weren’t all that bad. The S&P 500 dropped 1.9% in the second half of 1983 and 3.5% during the last six months of 1986.\nThe one exception was the last six months of 1987 when the index fell 19% during the second half of the year. That period included Black Monday, when the S&P 500 dropped 20% in one day, still a record loss. While selling linked to so-called portfolio insurance was ultimately blamed for the size and speed of the loss, the second half of 1987 was a period of rising bond yields and high stock-market valuations, just like the first half of 2021.\nStill, the market has been acting like it wants to go higher, not lower. Pullbacks, a normal event in the midst of bull runs, have been mild in 2021, with the largest drops being less than 4%. “What the [S&P 500] has done throughout 2021 is pick itself up when and where it has needed to, maintaining an uptrend all along,” writes Frank Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet.\nThat 6.3% average second-half rise would push the S&P 500’s full-year gain to around 23%. That would represent a “textbook [market] recovery” from a recession, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.\nFor now, at least, the path of least resistance is higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125874591,"gmtCreate":1624669796613,"gmtModify":1631892202539,"author":{"id":"3562662036291129","authorId":"3562662036291129","name":"Clarity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/290bda4a10a88bafe28971dd816e57cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562662036291129","authorIdStr":"3562662036291129"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125874591","repostId":"1177764085","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}