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什么导致本周市场大动荡？高盛合伙人：不是沃什，而是AI再平衡
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2025-06-17
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阿里将针对苹果的MLX框架推出新的“通义千问3”人工智能模型
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2025-05-01
祝老虎越来越好
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09:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"什么导致本周市场大动荡？高盛合伙人：不是沃什，而是AI再平衡","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2646231187","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“目前仍是股市在驱动宏观，而非宏观在驱动股市”。这场波动并非AI投资周期终结的信号——\"我们仍处于一场历史性投资热潮的进行之中\"——但市场对这轮热潮中净赢家与净输家的判断，正在经历一次深层次的重估。\n“目前仍是股市在驱动宏观，而非宏观在驱动股市”。这场波动并非AI投资周期终结的信号——\"我们仍处于一场历史性投资热潮的进行之中\"——但市场对这轮热潮中净赢家与净输家的判断，正在经历一次深层次的重估。\n\n","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周全球股市的剧烈震荡，根源并非来自美联储主席换届引发的宏观忧虑，而是AI投资热潮内部的结构性再平衡——存储周期的周期本质、对冲基金的极度仓位拥挤，以及市场对AI产业链赢家与输家的认知转变，共同构成了这场动荡的真实驱动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>销售与交易部合伙人Mark Wilson在最新报告中明确表态，<strong>尽管新任美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）履新初期市场已出现盈亏平衡通胀率骤降、实际利率走高、美元强势突破等宏观信号，但他并不认为这是本周股市波动的根本原因。他坚持其一贯判断："目前仍是股市在驱动宏观，而非宏观在驱动股市。"</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周市场动荡的直观写照：韩国Kospi指数两度触发熔断，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>创下52周新低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>跌破200日均线；"科技七巨头"（Mag7）年初至今整体跌幅超过5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>单日各挫逾5%。与此同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>（Micron）录得创纪录毛利率——AI供应链中的受益方与承压方之间的分化，正以前所未有的清晰度呈现在市场面前。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wilson的核心结论是：<strong>这场波动并非AI投资周期终结的信号——"我们仍处于一场历史性投资热潮的进行之中"——而是市场对这轮热潮中净赢家与净输家的判断，正在经历一次深层次的重估。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国成为震中：杠杆结构放大AI主题脆弱性</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国市场成为本周全球AI交易波动最集中的爆发点。Kospi指数年初至今最高曾上涨约100%，本周却两度触发跌停熔断。据Wilson统计，本世纪以来韩国市场所发生的全部熔断日中，有半数出现在2026年，仅本周就占其中20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这种极端波动有其结构性根源：Kospi约60%的权重集中于两只股票，背后还存在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>美元规模的杠杆ETF复制产品，任何方向的大幅波动均会被成倍放大。更关键的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>（Samsung）与SK海力士（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HXSCL\">SK Hynix</a>）的最新扩产计划令市场意识到，<strong>存储行业当前的历史性高利润率终将面临新增供给的压制。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wilson指出，这对整体供应链是净正面效应，但对于当前仓位最为拥挤的存储股受益方而言，则构成直接的向下压力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">赢家与输家：AI产业链的结构性再定价</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周市场的分化逻辑格外鲜明：大举投入资本或面临成本挤压的企业遭到惩罚，供应链受益方则获得持续追捧。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">微软不仅创下52周新低，股价更已低于其2021年高点，意味着过去五年零回报；亚马逊跌破200日均线。Mag7整体年初至今跌幅逾5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一端，苹果、戴尔等终端厂商因存储价格上涨被迫宣布大范围提价，消费者直接承担了美光创纪录毛利率所对应的成本。<strong>Wilson将这一逻辑概括为："那些投资AI（回报尚不确定）以及那些面临利润率压缩的企业，股价受到了惩罚；而那些受益于资本支出和价格上涨的企业，股价则持续升值。"</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c15e8ead467678be56d4e4c770d5906\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"631\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">存储周期：创纪录利润率背后的反转隐患</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wilson认为，美光的利润率演变将来有望成为商学院经典案例，但其背后的周期性风险同样不容低估。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6de3f33427c9b269b1ec817c05d6c733\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"628\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">全球金融危机后，存储行业加速整合，利润率在历次下行周期的低谷中系统性抬升，这一演变有据可查、有策略支撑，构成清晰可投资的逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，在当前美光毛利率创下历史高点、SK Hynix扩产计划公布的背景下，Wilson提醒投资者：这个行业本质上依然是周期性行业。<strong>随着三星与SK Hynix的新一轮产能扩张逐步落地，当前的供应瓶颈将获得缓解——这对整体供应链是正面信号，但对于已经大幅受益、仓位最为拥挤的存储股而言，意味着切实的估值压力。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">对冲基金：高杠杆叠加极度拥挤，风险积累至临界点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛大宗经纪（Prime Brokerage）策略团队的最新仓位分析，揭示了本周市场波动的另一层深层风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据显示多重极端信号同时出现：<strong>对冲基金总杠杆率升至历史新高；年初至今对冲基金大幅净卖出美国资产，转而大举加仓亚洲（主要集中于日本、韩国）；在AI主题持仓中，存储股净多头头寸的增速是半导体或电力板块的两倍。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bc1f9e3974ab3de3a75b893f19679\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"423\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从业绩结构看，基本面型、系统性及多策略对冲基金年初至今回报普遍在14%至18%之间，成绩亮眼，但分化同样突出——系统性与多策略基金的超额收益主要来自非AI标的；而基本面型基金的回报则几乎全部依赖AI主题，非AI持仓几乎未贡献任何alpha。目前美国与亚洲AI仓位的业绩相关性已升至历史99百分位，处于极端水平；欧洲则几乎缺席这轮行情。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wilson强调，仓位拥挤本身不足以成为反向做空的充分理由，但一旦基本面发生变化，极度拥挤的仓位将成倍放大下行风险——韩国市场本周的剧烈震荡，正是这一机制发挥作用的直接体现。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">AI热潮未完，格局悄然重塑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wilson在报告中明确反对将本周波动解读为AI投资周期的拐点。他认为，当前增加的波动性，是在向市场发出一个可能意义深远的信号：AI投资热潮中净赢家与净输家的格局，正在经历深层转变。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他同时指出，对AI叙事的政治压力正在上升。随着美国中期选举临近，AI对就业的影响将获得更多关注。相关数据显示，美国科技行业就业占比已连续5年以上趋势性下滑，归因于AI的岗位流失速度仍在加快，而整个行业迄今未能形成有说服力的正面叙事加以应对。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于投资者而言，当前这轮震荡传递的核心信息是：<strong>不能再以"AI受益者"一概而论，需要更精细地区分资本支出方、利润率承压方与供应链受益方之间的结构性差异——这将是下半年投资决策的关键变量。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n什么导致本周市场大动荡？高盛合伙人：不是沃什，而是AI再平衡\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-28 09:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周全球股市的剧烈震荡，根源并非来自美联储主席换届引发的宏观忧虑，而是AI投资热潮内部的结构性再平衡——存储周期的周期本质、对冲基金的极度仓位拥挤，以及市场对AI产业链赢家与输家的认知转变，共同构成了这场动荡的真实驱动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>销售与交易部合伙人Mark Wilson在最新报告中明确表态，<strong>尽管新任美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）履新初期市场已出现盈亏平衡通胀率骤降、实际利率走高、美元强势突破等宏观信号，但他并不认为这是本周股市波动的根本原因。他坚持其一贯判断："目前仍是股市在驱动宏观，而非宏观在驱动股市。"</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周市场动荡的直观写照：韩国Kospi指数两度触发熔断，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>创下52周新低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>跌破200日均线；"科技七巨头"（Mag7）年初至今整体跌幅超过5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>单日各挫逾5%。与此同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>（Micron）录得创纪录毛利率——AI供应链中的受益方与承压方之间的分化，正以前所未有的清晰度呈现在市场面前。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wilson的核心结论是：<strong>这场波动并非AI投资周期终结的信号——"我们仍处于一场历史性投资热潮的进行之中"——而是市场对这轮热潮中净赢家与净输家的判断，正在经历一次深层次的重估。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国成为震中：杠杆结构放大AI主题脆弱性</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国市场成为本周全球AI交易波动最集中的爆发点。Kospi指数年初至今最高曾上涨约100%，本周却两度触发跌停熔断。据Wilson统计，本世纪以来韩国市场所发生的全部熔断日中，有半数出现在2026年，仅本周就占其中20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这种极端波动有其结构性根源：Kospi约60%的权重集中于两只股票，背后还存在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>美元规模的杠杆ETF复制产品，任何方向的大幅波动均会被成倍放大。更关键的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>（Samsung）与SK海力士（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HXSCL\">SK Hynix</a>）的最新扩产计划令市场意识到，<strong>存储行业当前的历史性高利润率终将面临新增供给的压制。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wilson指出，这对整体供应链是净正面效应，但对于当前仓位最为拥挤的存储股受益方而言，则构成直接的向下压力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">赢家与输家：AI产业链的结构性再定价</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周市场的分化逻辑格外鲜明：大举投入资本或面临成本挤压的企业遭到惩罚，供应链受益方则获得持续追捧。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">微软不仅创下52周新低，股价更已低于其2021年高点，意味着过去五年零回报；亚马逊跌破200日均线。Mag7整体年初至今跌幅逾5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一端，苹果、戴尔等终端厂商因存储价格上涨被迫宣布大范围提价，消费者直接承担了美光创纪录毛利率所对应的成本。<strong>Wilson将这一逻辑概括为："那些投资AI（回报尚不确定）以及那些面临利润率压缩的企业，股价受到了惩罚；而那些受益于资本支出和价格上涨的企业，股价则持续升值。"</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c15e8ead467678be56d4e4c770d5906\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"631\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">存储周期：创纪录利润率背后的反转隐患</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wilson认为，美光的利润率演变将来有望成为商学院经典案例，但其背后的周期性风险同样不容低估。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6de3f33427c9b269b1ec817c05d6c733\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"628\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">全球金融危机后，存储行业加速整合，利润率在历次下行周期的低谷中系统性抬升，这一演变有据可查、有策略支撑，构成清晰可投资的逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，在当前美光毛利率创下历史高点、SK Hynix扩产计划公布的背景下，Wilson提醒投资者：这个行业本质上依然是周期性行业。<strong>随着三星与SK Hynix的新一轮产能扩张逐步落地，当前的供应瓶颈将获得缓解——这对整体供应链是正面信号，但对于已经大幅受益、仓位最为拥挤的存储股而言，意味着切实的估值压力。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">对冲基金：高杠杆叠加极度拥挤，风险积累至临界点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛大宗经纪（Prime Brokerage）策略团队的最新仓位分析，揭示了本周市场波动的另一层深层风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据显示多重极端信号同时出现：<strong>对冲基金总杠杆率升至历史新高；年初至今对冲基金大幅净卖出美国资产，转而大举加仓亚洲（主要集中于日本、韩国）；在AI主题持仓中，存储股净多头头寸的增速是半导体或电力板块的两倍。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bc1f9e3974ab3de3a75b893f19679\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"423\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从业绩结构看，基本面型、系统性及多策略对冲基金年初至今回报普遍在14%至18%之间，成绩亮眼，但分化同样突出——系统性与多策略基金的超额收益主要来自非AI标的；而基本面型基金的回报则几乎全部依赖AI主题，非AI持仓几乎未贡献任何alpha。目前美国与亚洲AI仓位的业绩相关性已升至历史99百分位，处于极端水平；欧洲则几乎缺席这轮行情。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wilson强调，仓位拥挤本身不足以成为反向做空的充分理由，但一旦基本面发生变化，极度拥挤的仓位将成倍放大下行风险——韩国市场本周的剧烈震荡，正是这一机制发挥作用的直接体现。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">AI热潮未完，格局悄然重塑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wilson在报告中明确反对将本周波动解读为AI投资周期的拐点。他认为，当前增加的波动性，是在向市场发出一个可能意义深远的信号：AI投资热潮中净赢家与净输家的格局，正在经历深层转变。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他同时指出，对AI叙事的政治压力正在上升。随着美国中期选举临近，AI对就业的影响将获得更多关注。相关数据显示，美国科技行业就业占比已连续5年以上趋势性下滑，归因于AI的岗位流失速度仍在加快，而整个行业迄今未能形成有说服力的正面叙事加以应对。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于投资者而言，当前这轮震荡传递的核心信息是：<strong>不能再以"AI受益者"一概而论，需要更精细地区分资本支出方、利润率承压方与供应链受益方之间的结构性差异——这将是下半年投资决策的关键变量。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88008c2e6b7a8525f2bfe6db4eaa788c","relate_stocks":{"BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD 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SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3775685","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2646231187","content_text":"本周全球股市的剧烈震荡，根源并非来自美联储主席换届引发的宏观忧虑，而是AI投资热潮内部的结构性再平衡——存储周期的周期本质、对冲基金的极度仓位拥挤，以及市场对AI产业链赢家与输家的认知转变，共同构成了这场动荡的真实驱动力。高盛销售与交易部合伙人Mark Wilson在最新报告中明确表态，尽管新任美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）履新初期市场已出现盈亏平衡通胀率骤降、实际利率走高、美元强势突破等宏观信号，但他并不认为这是本周股市波动的根本原因。他坚持其一贯判断：\"目前仍是股市在驱动宏观，而非宏观在驱动股市。\"本周市场动荡的直观写照：韩国Kospi指数两度触发熔断，微软创下52周新低，亚马逊跌破200日均线；\"科技七巨头\"（Mag7）年初至今整体跌幅超过5%，苹果与戴尔单日各挫逾5%。与此同时，美光（Micron）录得创纪录毛利率——AI供应链中的受益方与承压方之间的分化，正以前所未有的清晰度呈现在市场面前。Wilson的核心结论是：这场波动并非AI投资周期终结的信号——\"我们仍处于一场历史性投资热潮的进行之中\"——而是市场对这轮热潮中净赢家与净输家的判断，正在经历一次深层次的重估。韩国成为震中：杠杆结构放大AI主题脆弱性韩国市场成为本周全球AI交易波动最集中的爆发点。Kospi指数年初至今最高曾上涨约100%，本周却两度触发跌停熔断。据Wilson统计，本世纪以来韩国市场所发生的全部熔断日中，有半数出现在2026年，仅本周就占其中20%。这种极端波动有其结构性根源：Kospi约60%的权重集中于两只股票，背后还存在数百亿美元规模的杠杆ETF复制产品，任何方向的大幅波动均会被成倍放大。更关键的是，三星（Samsung）与SK海力士（SK Hynix）的最新扩产计划令市场意识到，存储行业当前的历史性高利润率终将面临新增供给的压制。Wilson指出，这对整体供应链是净正面效应，但对于当前仓位最为拥挤的存储股受益方而言，则构成直接的向下压力。赢家与输家：AI产业链的结构性再定价本周市场的分化逻辑格外鲜明：大举投入资本或面临成本挤压的企业遭到惩罚，供应链受益方则获得持续追捧。微软不仅创下52周新低，股价更已低于其2021年高点，意味着过去五年零回报；亚马逊跌破200日均线。Mag7整体年初至今跌幅逾5%。另一端，苹果、戴尔等终端厂商因存储价格上涨被迫宣布大范围提价，消费者直接承担了美光创纪录毛利率所对应的成本。Wilson将这一逻辑概括为：\"那些投资AI（回报尚不确定）以及那些面临利润率压缩的企业，股价受到了惩罚；而那些受益于资本支出和价格上涨的企业，股价则持续升值。\"存储周期：创纪录利润率背后的反转隐患Wilson认为，美光的利润率演变将来有望成为商学院经典案例，但其背后的周期性风险同样不容低估。全球金融危机后，存储行业加速整合，利润率在历次下行周期的低谷中系统性抬升，这一演变有据可查、有策略支撑，构成清晰可投资的逻辑。然而，在当前美光毛利率创下历史高点、SK Hynix扩产计划公布的背景下，Wilson提醒投资者：这个行业本质上依然是周期性行业。随着三星与SK Hynix的新一轮产能扩张逐步落地，当前的供应瓶颈将获得缓解——这对整体供应链是正面信号，但对于已经大幅受益、仓位最为拥挤的存储股而言，意味着切实的估值压力。对冲基金：高杠杆叠加极度拥挤，风险积累至临界点高盛大宗经纪（Prime Brokerage）策略团队的最新仓位分析，揭示了本周市场波动的另一层深层风险。数据显示多重极端信号同时出现：对冲基金总杠杆率升至历史新高；年初至今对冲基金大幅净卖出美国资产，转而大举加仓亚洲（主要集中于日本、韩国）；在AI主题持仓中，存储股净多头头寸的增速是半导体或电力板块的两倍。从业绩结构看，基本面型、系统性及多策略对冲基金年初至今回报普遍在14%至18%之间，成绩亮眼，但分化同样突出——系统性与多策略基金的超额收益主要来自非AI标的；而基本面型基金的回报则几乎全部依赖AI主题，非AI持仓几乎未贡献任何alpha。目前美国与亚洲AI仓位的业绩相关性已升至历史99百分位，处于极端水平；欧洲则几乎缺席这轮行情。Wilson强调，仓位拥挤本身不足以成为反向做空的充分理由，但一旦基本面发生变化，极度拥挤的仓位将成倍放大下行风险——韩国市场本周的剧烈震荡，正是这一机制发挥作用的直接体现。AI热潮未完，格局悄然重塑Wilson在报告中明确反对将本周波动解读为AI投资周期的拐点。他认为，当前增加的波动性，是在向市场发出一个可能意义深远的信号：AI投资热潮中净赢家与净输家的格局，正在经历深层转变。他同时指出，对AI叙事的政治压力正在上升。随着美国中期选举临近，AI对就业的影响将获得更多关注。相关数据显示，美国科技行业就业占比已连续5年以上趋势性下滑，归因于AI的岗位流失速度仍在加快，而整个行业迄今未能形成有说服力的正面叙事加以应对。对于投资者而言，当前这轮震荡传递的核心信息是：不能再以\"AI受益者\"一概而论，需要更精细地区分资本支出方、利润率承压方与供应链受益方之间的结构性差异——这将是下半年投资决策的关键变量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQQQ":2,"TQQQ":2,"VXX":2,".DJI":2,"SVXY":0.6,"VIXmain":2,"NQmain":2,"ESmain":2,"SVIX":0.6,".SPX":2,".IXIC":2,"QQQ":2,"VIXY":2,"UVIX":0.6,"VIX":2,"YMmain":2,"UVXY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":17,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":446767615746536,"gmtCreate":1750095334914,"gmtModify":1750096024337,"author":{"id":"3562188634603346","authorId":"3562188634603346","name":"TragedS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8627e1606c1ca94939bdc7c5b41e5c3c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562188634603346","authorIdStr":"3562188634603346"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"中国最有希望的公司","listText":"中国最有希望的公司","text":"中国最有希望的公司","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/446767615746536","repostId":"1133561838","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1133561838","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1750085842,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133561838?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-06-16 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22:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周一，阿里巴巴盘中涨超3%。据悉阿里将针对苹果的MLX框架推出新的通义千问3（QWEN3）人工智能模型。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24e993584894565f6b3a9acea240148c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72235dc87ea13fc6e5be106c5a81c718","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133561838","content_text":"周一，阿里巴巴盘中涨超3%。据悉阿里将针对苹果的MLX框架推出新的通义千问3（QWEN3）人工智能模型。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":430213177156440,"gmtCreate":1746054633088,"gmtModify":1746057601230,"author":{"id":"3562188634603346","authorId":"3562188634603346","name":"TragedS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8627e1606c1ca94939bdc7c5b41e5c3c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562188634603346","authorIdStr":"3562188634603346"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"祝老虎越来越好","listText":"祝老虎越来越好","text":"祝老虎越来越好","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03381ee200d54cb978b498aa4d86a57d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/430213177156440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":284727895277640,"gmtCreate":1710519408257,"gmtModify":1710519559639,"author":{"id":"3562188634603346","authorId":"3562188634603346","name":"TragedS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8627e1606c1ca94939bdc7c5b41e5c3c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562188634603346","authorIdStr":"3562188634603346"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"周处除三害","listText":"周处除三害","text":"周处除三害","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/284727895277640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":446767615746536,"gmtCreate":1750095334914,"gmtModify":1750096024337,"author":{"id":"3562188634603346","authorId":"3562188634603346","name":"TragedS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8627e1606c1ca94939bdc7c5b41e5c3c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562188634603346","idStr":"3562188634603346"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"中国最有希望的公司","listText":"中国最有希望的公司","text":"中国最有希望的公司","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/446767615746536","repostId":"1133561838","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1133561838","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1750085842,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133561838?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-06-16 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22:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周一，阿里巴巴盘中涨超3%。据悉阿里将针对苹果的MLX框架推出新的通义千问3（QWEN3）人工智能模型。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24e993584894565f6b3a9acea240148c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72235dc87ea13fc6e5be106c5a81c718","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133561838","content_text":"周一，阿里巴巴盘中涨超3%。据悉阿里将针对苹果的MLX框架推出新的通义千问3（QWEN3）人工智能模型。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":430213177156440,"gmtCreate":1746054633088,"gmtModify":1746057601230,"author":{"id":"3562188634603346","authorId":"3562188634603346","name":"TragedS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8627e1606c1ca94939bdc7c5b41e5c3c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562188634603346","idStr":"3562188634603346"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"祝老虎越来越好","listText":"祝老虎越来越好","text":"祝老虎越来越好","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03381ee200d54cb978b498aa4d86a57d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/430213177156440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":579929921200128,"gmtCreate":1782613706044,"gmtModify":1782613989865,"author":{"id":"3562188634603346","authorId":"3562188634603346","name":"TragedS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8627e1606c1ca94939bdc7c5b41e5c3c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562188634603346","idStr":"3562188634603346"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"，","listText":"，","text":"，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/579929921200128","repostId":"2646231187","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2646231187","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1782610523,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2646231187?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-28 09:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"什么导致本周市场大动荡？高盛合伙人：不是沃什，而是AI再平衡","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2646231187","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“目前仍是股市在驱动宏观，而非宏观在驱动股市”。这场波动并非AI投资周期终结的信号——\"我们仍处于一场历史性投资热潮的进行之中\"——但市场对这轮热潮中净赢家与净输家的判断，正在经历一次深层次的重估。\n“目前仍是股市在驱动宏观，而非宏观在驱动股市”。这场波动并非AI投资周期终结的信号——\"我们仍处于一场历史性投资热潮的进行之中\"——但市场对这轮热潮中净赢家与净输家的判断，正在经历一次深层次的重估。\n\n","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周全球股市的剧烈震荡，根源并非来自美联储主席换届引发的宏观忧虑，而是AI投资热潮内部的结构性再平衡——存储周期的周期本质、对冲基金的极度仓位拥挤，以及市场对AI产业链赢家与输家的认知转变，共同构成了这场动荡的真实驱动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>销售与交易部合伙人Mark Wilson在最新报告中明确表态，<strong>尽管新任美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）履新初期市场已出现盈亏平衡通胀率骤降、实际利率走高、美元强势突破等宏观信号，但他并不认为这是本周股市波动的根本原因。他坚持其一贯判断："目前仍是股市在驱动宏观，而非宏观在驱动股市。"</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周市场动荡的直观写照：韩国Kospi指数两度触发熔断，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>创下52周新低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>跌破200日均线；"科技七巨头"（Mag7）年初至今整体跌幅超过5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>单日各挫逾5%。与此同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>（Micron）录得创纪录毛利率——AI供应链中的受益方与承压方之间的分化，正以前所未有的清晰度呈现在市场面前。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wilson的核心结论是：<strong>这场波动并非AI投资周期终结的信号——"我们仍处于一场历史性投资热潮的进行之中"——而是市场对这轮热潮中净赢家与净输家的判断，正在经历一次深层次的重估。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国成为震中：杠杆结构放大AI主题脆弱性</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国市场成为本周全球AI交易波动最集中的爆发点。Kospi指数年初至今最高曾上涨约100%，本周却两度触发跌停熔断。据Wilson统计，本世纪以来韩国市场所发生的全部熔断日中，有半数出现在2026年，仅本周就占其中20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这种极端波动有其结构性根源：Kospi约60%的权重集中于两只股票，背后还存在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>美元规模的杠杆ETF复制产品，任何方向的大幅波动均会被成倍放大。更关键的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>（Samsung）与SK海力士（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HXSCL\">SK Hynix</a>）的最新扩产计划令市场意识到，<strong>存储行业当前的历史性高利润率终将面临新增供给的压制。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wilson指出，这对整体供应链是净正面效应，但对于当前仓位最为拥挤的存储股受益方而言，则构成直接的向下压力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">赢家与输家：AI产业链的结构性再定价</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周市场的分化逻辑格外鲜明：大举投入资本或面临成本挤压的企业遭到惩罚，供应链受益方则获得持续追捧。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">微软不仅创下52周新低，股价更已低于其2021年高点，意味着过去五年零回报；亚马逊跌破200日均线。Mag7整体年初至今跌幅逾5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一端，苹果、戴尔等终端厂商因存储价格上涨被迫宣布大范围提价，消费者直接承担了美光创纪录毛利率所对应的成本。<strong>Wilson将这一逻辑概括为："那些投资AI（回报尚不确定）以及那些面临利润率压缩的企业，股价受到了惩罚；而那些受益于资本支出和价格上涨的企业，股价则持续升值。"</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c15e8ead467678be56d4e4c770d5906\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"631\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">存储周期：创纪录利润率背后的反转隐患</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wilson认为，美光的利润率演变将来有望成为商学院经典案例，但其背后的周期性风险同样不容低估。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6de3f33427c9b269b1ec817c05d6c733\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"628\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">全球金融危机后，存储行业加速整合，利润率在历次下行周期的低谷中系统性抬升，这一演变有据可查、有策略支撑，构成清晰可投资的逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，在当前美光毛利率创下历史高点、SK Hynix扩产计划公布的背景下，Wilson提醒投资者：这个行业本质上依然是周期性行业。<strong>随着三星与SK Hynix的新一轮产能扩张逐步落地，当前的供应瓶颈将获得缓解——这对整体供应链是正面信号，但对于已经大幅受益、仓位最为拥挤的存储股而言，意味着切实的估值压力。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">对冲基金：高杠杆叠加极度拥挤，风险积累至临界点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛大宗经纪（Prime Brokerage）策略团队的最新仓位分析，揭示了本周市场波动的另一层深层风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据显示多重极端信号同时出现：<strong>对冲基金总杠杆率升至历史新高；年初至今对冲基金大幅净卖出美国资产，转而大举加仓亚洲（主要集中于日本、韩国）；在AI主题持仓中，存储股净多头头寸的增速是半导体或电力板块的两倍。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bc1f9e3974ab3de3a75b893f19679\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"423\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从业绩结构看，基本面型、系统性及多策略对冲基金年初至今回报普遍在14%至18%之间，成绩亮眼，但分化同样突出——系统性与多策略基金的超额收益主要来自非AI标的；而基本面型基金的回报则几乎全部依赖AI主题，非AI持仓几乎未贡献任何alpha。目前美国与亚洲AI仓位的业绩相关性已升至历史99百分位，处于极端水平；欧洲则几乎缺席这轮行情。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wilson强调，仓位拥挤本身不足以成为反向做空的充分理由，但一旦基本面发生变化，极度拥挤的仓位将成倍放大下行风险——韩国市场本周的剧烈震荡，正是这一机制发挥作用的直接体现。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">AI热潮未完，格局悄然重塑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wilson在报告中明确反对将本周波动解读为AI投资周期的拐点。他认为，当前增加的波动性，是在向市场发出一个可能意义深远的信号：AI投资热潮中净赢家与净输家的格局，正在经历深层转变。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他同时指出，对AI叙事的政治压力正在上升。随着美国中期选举临近，AI对就业的影响将获得更多关注。相关数据显示，美国科技行业就业占比已连续5年以上趋势性下滑，归因于AI的岗位流失速度仍在加快，而整个行业迄今未能形成有说服力的正面叙事加以应对。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于投资者而言，当前这轮震荡传递的核心信息是：<strong>不能再以"AI受益者"一概而论，需要更精细地区分资本支出方、利润率承压方与供应链受益方之间的结构性差异——这将是下半年投资决策的关键变量。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n什么导致本周市场大动荡？高盛合伙人：不是沃什，而是AI再平衡\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-28 09:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周全球股市的剧烈震荡，根源并非来自美联储主席换届引发的宏观忧虑，而是AI投资热潮内部的结构性再平衡——存储周期的周期本质、对冲基金的极度仓位拥挤，以及市场对AI产业链赢家与输家的认知转变，共同构成了这场动荡的真实驱动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>销售与交易部合伙人Mark Wilson在最新报告中明确表态，<strong>尽管新任美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）履新初期市场已出现盈亏平衡通胀率骤降、实际利率走高、美元强势突破等宏观信号，但他并不认为这是本周股市波动的根本原因。他坚持其一贯判断："目前仍是股市在驱动宏观，而非宏观在驱动股市。"</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周市场动荡的直观写照：韩国Kospi指数两度触发熔断，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>创下52周新低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>跌破200日均线；"科技七巨头"（Mag7）年初至今整体跌幅超过5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>单日各挫逾5%。与此同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>（Micron）录得创纪录毛利率——AI供应链中的受益方与承压方之间的分化，正以前所未有的清晰度呈现在市场面前。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wilson的核心结论是：<strong>这场波动并非AI投资周期终结的信号——"我们仍处于一场历史性投资热潮的进行之中"——而是市场对这轮热潮中净赢家与净输家的判断，正在经历一次深层次的重估。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国成为震中：杠杆结构放大AI主题脆弱性</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国市场成为本周全球AI交易波动最集中的爆发点。Kospi指数年初至今最高曾上涨约100%，本周却两度触发跌停熔断。据Wilson统计，本世纪以来韩国市场所发生的全部熔断日中，有半数出现在2026年，仅本周就占其中20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这种极端波动有其结构性根源：Kospi约60%的权重集中于两只股票，背后还存在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>美元规模的杠杆ETF复制产品，任何方向的大幅波动均会被成倍放大。更关键的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>（Samsung）与SK海力士（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HXSCL\">SK Hynix</a>）的最新扩产计划令市场意识到，<strong>存储行业当前的历史性高利润率终将面临新增供给的压制。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wilson指出，这对整体供应链是净正面效应，但对于当前仓位最为拥挤的存储股受益方而言，则构成直接的向下压力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">赢家与输家：AI产业链的结构性再定价</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周市场的分化逻辑格外鲜明：大举投入资本或面临成本挤压的企业遭到惩罚，供应链受益方则获得持续追捧。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">微软不仅创下52周新低，股价更已低于其2021年高点，意味着过去五年零回报；亚马逊跌破200日均线。Mag7整体年初至今跌幅逾5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一端，苹果、戴尔等终端厂商因存储价格上涨被迫宣布大范围提价，消费者直接承担了美光创纪录毛利率所对应的成本。<strong>Wilson将这一逻辑概括为："那些投资AI（回报尚不确定）以及那些面临利润率压缩的企业，股价受到了惩罚；而那些受益于资本支出和价格上涨的企业，股价则持续升值。"</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c15e8ead467678be56d4e4c770d5906\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"631\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">存储周期：创纪录利润率背后的反转隐患</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wilson认为，美光的利润率演变将来有望成为商学院经典案例，但其背后的周期性风险同样不容低估。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6de3f33427c9b269b1ec817c05d6c733\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"628\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">全球金融危机后，存储行业加速整合，利润率在历次下行周期的低谷中系统性抬升，这一演变有据可查、有策略支撑，构成清晰可投资的逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，在当前美光毛利率创下历史高点、SK Hynix扩产计划公布的背景下，Wilson提醒投资者：这个行业本质上依然是周期性行业。<strong>随着三星与SK Hynix的新一轮产能扩张逐步落地，当前的供应瓶颈将获得缓解——这对整体供应链是正面信号，但对于已经大幅受益、仓位最为拥挤的存储股而言，意味着切实的估值压力。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">对冲基金：高杠杆叠加极度拥挤，风险积累至临界点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛大宗经纪（Prime Brokerage）策略团队的最新仓位分析，揭示了本周市场波动的另一层深层风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据显示多重极端信号同时出现：<strong>对冲基金总杠杆率升至历史新高；年初至今对冲基金大幅净卖出美国资产，转而大举加仓亚洲（主要集中于日本、韩国）；在AI主题持仓中，存储股净多头头寸的增速是半导体或电力板块的两倍。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bc1f9e3974ab3de3a75b893f19679\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"423\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从业绩结构看，基本面型、系统性及多策略对冲基金年初至今回报普遍在14%至18%之间，成绩亮眼，但分化同样突出——系统性与多策略基金的超额收益主要来自非AI标的；而基本面型基金的回报则几乎全部依赖AI主题，非AI持仓几乎未贡献任何alpha。目前美国与亚洲AI仓位的业绩相关性已升至历史99百分位，处于极端水平；欧洲则几乎缺席这轮行情。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wilson强调，仓位拥挤本身不足以成为反向做空的充分理由，但一旦基本面发生变化，极度拥挤的仓位将成倍放大下行风险——韩国市场本周的剧烈震荡，正是这一机制发挥作用的直接体现。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">AI热潮未完，格局悄然重塑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wilson在报告中明确反对将本周波动解读为AI投资周期的拐点。他认为，当前增加的波动性，是在向市场发出一个可能意义深远的信号：AI投资热潮中净赢家与净输家的格局，正在经历深层转变。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他同时指出，对AI叙事的政治压力正在上升。随着美国中期选举临近，AI对就业的影响将获得更多关注。相关数据显示，美国科技行业就业占比已连续5年以上趋势性下滑，归因于AI的岗位流失速度仍在加快，而整个行业迄今未能形成有说服力的正面叙事加以应对。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于投资者而言，当前这轮震荡传递的核心信息是：<strong>不能再以"AI受益者"一概而论，需要更精细地区分资本支出方、利润率承压方与供应链受益方之间的结构性差异——这将是下半年投资决策的关键变量。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88008c2e6b7a8525f2bfe6db4eaa788c","relate_stocks":{"BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD 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SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3775685","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2646231187","content_text":"本周全球股市的剧烈震荡，根源并非来自美联储主席换届引发的宏观忧虑，而是AI投资热潮内部的结构性再平衡——存储周期的周期本质、对冲基金的极度仓位拥挤，以及市场对AI产业链赢家与输家的认知转变，共同构成了这场动荡的真实驱动力。高盛销售与交易部合伙人Mark Wilson在最新报告中明确表态，尽管新任美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）履新初期市场已出现盈亏平衡通胀率骤降、实际利率走高、美元强势突破等宏观信号，但他并不认为这是本周股市波动的根本原因。他坚持其一贯判断：\"目前仍是股市在驱动宏观，而非宏观在驱动股市。\"本周市场动荡的直观写照：韩国Kospi指数两度触发熔断，微软创下52周新低，亚马逊跌破200日均线；\"科技七巨头\"（Mag7）年初至今整体跌幅超过5%，苹果与戴尔单日各挫逾5%。与此同时，美光（Micron）录得创纪录毛利率——AI供应链中的受益方与承压方之间的分化，正以前所未有的清晰度呈现在市场面前。Wilson的核心结论是：这场波动并非AI投资周期终结的信号——\"我们仍处于一场历史性投资热潮的进行之中\"——而是市场对这轮热潮中净赢家与净输家的判断，正在经历一次深层次的重估。韩国成为震中：杠杆结构放大AI主题脆弱性韩国市场成为本周全球AI交易波动最集中的爆发点。Kospi指数年初至今最高曾上涨约100%，本周却两度触发跌停熔断。据Wilson统计，本世纪以来韩国市场所发生的全部熔断日中，有半数出现在2026年，仅本周就占其中20%。这种极端波动有其结构性根源：Kospi约60%的权重集中于两只股票，背后还存在数百亿美元规模的杠杆ETF复制产品，任何方向的大幅波动均会被成倍放大。更关键的是，三星（Samsung）与SK海力士（SK Hynix）的最新扩产计划令市场意识到，存储行业当前的历史性高利润率终将面临新增供给的压制。Wilson指出，这对整体供应链是净正面效应，但对于当前仓位最为拥挤的存储股受益方而言，则构成直接的向下压力。赢家与输家：AI产业链的结构性再定价本周市场的分化逻辑格外鲜明：大举投入资本或面临成本挤压的企业遭到惩罚，供应链受益方则获得持续追捧。微软不仅创下52周新低，股价更已低于其2021年高点，意味着过去五年零回报；亚马逊跌破200日均线。Mag7整体年初至今跌幅逾5%。另一端，苹果、戴尔等终端厂商因存储价格上涨被迫宣布大范围提价，消费者直接承担了美光创纪录毛利率所对应的成本。Wilson将这一逻辑概括为：\"那些投资AI（回报尚不确定）以及那些面临利润率压缩的企业，股价受到了惩罚；而那些受益于资本支出和价格上涨的企业，股价则持续升值。\"存储周期：创纪录利润率背后的反转隐患Wilson认为，美光的利润率演变将来有望成为商学院经典案例，但其背后的周期性风险同样不容低估。全球金融危机后，存储行业加速整合，利润率在历次下行周期的低谷中系统性抬升，这一演变有据可查、有策略支撑，构成清晰可投资的逻辑。然而，在当前美光毛利率创下历史高点、SK Hynix扩产计划公布的背景下，Wilson提醒投资者：这个行业本质上依然是周期性行业。随着三星与SK Hynix的新一轮产能扩张逐步落地，当前的供应瓶颈将获得缓解——这对整体供应链是正面信号，但对于已经大幅受益、仓位最为拥挤的存储股而言，意味着切实的估值压力。对冲基金：高杠杆叠加极度拥挤，风险积累至临界点高盛大宗经纪（Prime Brokerage）策略团队的最新仓位分析，揭示了本周市场波动的另一层深层风险。数据显示多重极端信号同时出现：对冲基金总杠杆率升至历史新高；年初至今对冲基金大幅净卖出美国资产，转而大举加仓亚洲（主要集中于日本、韩国）；在AI主题持仓中，存储股净多头头寸的增速是半导体或电力板块的两倍。从业绩结构看，基本面型、系统性及多策略对冲基金年初至今回报普遍在14%至18%之间，成绩亮眼，但分化同样突出——系统性与多策略基金的超额收益主要来自非AI标的；而基本面型基金的回报则几乎全部依赖AI主题，非AI持仓几乎未贡献任何alpha。目前美国与亚洲AI仓位的业绩相关性已升至历史99百分位，处于极端水平；欧洲则几乎缺席这轮行情。Wilson强调，仓位拥挤本身不足以成为反向做空的充分理由，但一旦基本面发生变化，极度拥挤的仓位将成倍放大下行风险——韩国市场本周的剧烈震荡，正是这一机制发挥作用的直接体现。AI热潮未完，格局悄然重塑Wilson在报告中明确反对将本周波动解读为AI投资周期的拐点。他认为，当前增加的波动性，是在向市场发出一个可能意义深远的信号：AI投资热潮中净赢家与净输家的格局，正在经历深层转变。他同时指出，对AI叙事的政治压力正在上升。随着美国中期选举临近，AI对就业的影响将获得更多关注。相关数据显示，美国科技行业就业占比已连续5年以上趋势性下滑，归因于AI的岗位流失速度仍在加快，而整个行业迄今未能形成有说服力的正面叙事加以应对。对于投资者而言，当前这轮震荡传递的核心信息是：不能再以\"AI受益者\"一概而论，需要更精细地区分资本支出方、利润率承压方与供应链受益方之间的结构性差异——这将是下半年投资决策的关键变量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQQQ":2,"TQQQ":2,"VXX":2,".DJI":2,"SVXY":0.6,"VIXmain":2,"NQmain":2,"ESmain":2,"SVIX":0.6,".SPX":2,".IXIC":2,"QQQ":2,"VIXY":2,"UVIX":0.6,"VIX":2,"YMmain":2,"UVXY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":17,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":284727895277640,"gmtCreate":1710519408257,"gmtModify":1710519559639,"author":{"id":"3562188634603346","authorId":"3562188634603346","name":"TragedS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8627e1606c1ca94939bdc7c5b41e5c3c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562188634603346","idStr":"3562188634603346"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"周处除三害","listText":"周处除三害","text":"周处除三害","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/284727895277640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
