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2021-04-17

Many people belives in TSM....

Taiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>《华尔街日报》：台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁</blockquote>

2021-03-13

$China Mobile(00941)$getting lower[笑哭]

2021-05-04

$Skyworks Solutions(SWKS)$sad...Bought at it's peak....Silly me

2021-05-23

Good

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2021-05-23

Too crazy, it's like a dream

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2021-06-21

Please give me many likes and comments!

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2021-03-12

Omg

Some “meme” stocks rose<blockquote>部分“模因”股票上涨</blockquote>

2021-06-06

Better not buy

Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>

2021-06-04

Mean reverting always win

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2021-05-04

Must because of conflict of interest...

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give me many likes and comments!","listText":"Please give me many likes and comments!","text":"Please give me many likes and comments!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167164184","repostId":"2145208803","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115827040,"gmtCreate":1622975238780,"gmtModify":1634096457698,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Better stay away from these&nbsp;","listText":"Better stay away from these&nbsp;","text":"Better stay away from these","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115827040","repostId":"2141402879","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141402879","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622942472,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2141402879?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-06 09:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Marqeta IPO: 5 things to know about the fintech company serving Square, DoorDash and others<blockquote>Marqeta IPO：关于为Square、DoorDash等提供服务的金融科技公司需要了解的5件事</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141402879","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Marqeta could be valued at more than $12 billion after IPO that seeks to raise more than $1 billion\n","content":"<p>Marqeta could be valued at more than $12 billion after IPO that seeks to raise more than $1 billion</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta寻求筹集超过10亿美元的IPO后估值可能超过120亿美元</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/412c348141d4444464c736dce5633419\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"937\"><span>Square Inc. accounted for 70% of Marqeta Inc.'s revenue last year; Marqeta's card-issuing technology helps Square offer debit cards to its Cash App customers.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Square Inc.去年占Marqeta Inc.收入的70%；Marqeta的发卡技术帮助Square向其Cash App客户提供借记卡。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors could soon have a new way to play the payments infrastructure behind some of Silicon Valley's hottest companies.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能很快就会有一种新的方式来利用硅谷一些最热门公司背后的支付基础设施。</blockquote></p><p> Companies from Instacart to DoorDash Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DASH\">$(DASH)$</a> to Affirm Holdings Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$(AFRM)$</a> rely on card payments to facilitate customer purchases, allowing delivery workers to pay for just the items in orders, for instance. Marqeta Inc. offers card-issuing technology that lets businesses build out these functions, and the financial technology company is now in the process of going public.</p><p><blockquote>从Instacart到DoorDash Inc.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DASH\">$（破折号）$</a>确认控股公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$(AFRM)$</a>依靠卡支付来方便客户购买，例如，允许送货人员只为订单中的商品付款。Marqeta Inc.提供发卡技术，让企业能够构建这些功能，这家金融科技公司目前正在上市。</blockquote></p><p> Oakland, Calif.-based Marqeta, which was incorporated in 2010, says that's it putting a modern spin on the practice of issuing customized cards. The company offers application programming interfaces, or APIs, that let companies leverage Marqeta's relationships with banks and card networks while building out virtual and physical card programs.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于加利福尼亚州奥克兰的Marqeta成立于2010年，该公司表示，这为发行定制卡的做法注入了现代元素。该公司提供应用程序编程接口(API)，让公司在构建虚拟和物理卡程序时利用Marqeta与银行和卡网络的关系。</blockquote></p><p> Square Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$(SQ)$</a> is Marqeta's largest customer, relying on Marqeta technology to power Cash Card debit cards that let users spend the funds from their mobile wallets. Marqeta also enables a function that lets Square's Cash App users receive direct deposits from employers or the government, according to the prospectus Marqeta filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ahead of its initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>广场公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$(SQ)$</a>是Marqeta最大的客户，依靠Marqeta技术为现金卡借记卡提供支持，让用户可以使用移动钱包中的资金。根据Marqeta在首次公开募股前向美国证券交易委员会提交的招股说明书，Marqeta还支持一项功能，让Square的Cash应用程序用户直接从雇主或政府接收存款。</blockquote></p><p> Marqeta is looking to offer about 45 million Class A shares priced at $20 to $24 apiece through its IPO, while founder and Chief Executive Jason Gardner, as well as early investors, receive class B shares with 10 times the voting power. The company would raise almost $1.1 billion at the high end of that proposed range while fetching a valuation over $12 billion. Underwriters, led by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, have access to an additional 6.8 million shares. Marqeta expects to list on the Nasdaq exchange under the ticker symbol MQ.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta计划通过IPO发行约4500万股A类股票，每股价格为20至24美元，而创始人兼首席执行官Jason Gardner以及早期投资者将获得投票权为10倍的B类股票。该公司将在拟议范围的高端筹集近11亿美元，同时估值超过120亿美元。以高盛和摩根大通为首的承销商可以额外获得680万股股票。Marqeta预计将在纳斯达克交易所上市，股票代码为MQ。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five things to know about Marqeta ahead of offering its shares, which are expected to begin trading on June 9.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta预计将于6月9日开始交易，在发行股票之前需要了解以下五件事。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Doubling revenue, but still in the red</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入翻倍，但仍处于亏损状态</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta generated net revenue of $290.3 million last year, more than double the $143.3 million that the company recorded a year earlier. For the first quarter of 2021, Marqeta saw revenue rise to $108.0 million from $48.4 million.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta去年的净收入为2.903亿美元，是该公司去年同期1.433亿美元的两倍多。2021年第一季度，Marqeta的收入从4840万美元增至1.08亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is still losing money, though losses narrowed in the last fiscal year. Marqeta posted a net loss of $47.7 million in 2020, compared with a loss of $58.2 million in 2019. Marqeta lost $12.8 million in the first quarter of 2021, compared with $14.5 million in the comparable period a year prior.</p><p><blockquote>尽管上一财年亏损有所收窄，但该公司仍在亏损。Marqeta公布2020年净亏损4770万美元，而2019年亏损5820万美元。Marqeta 2021年第一季度亏损1280万美元，而去年同期亏损1450万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Marqeta's total processing volume, or the dollar value of payments processed through its platform, increased 167% in the first quarter to reach $24 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta的总处理量，即通过其平台处理的支付的美元价值，在第一季度增长了167%，达到240亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Squarely its biggest customer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>绝对是其最大的客户</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta is highly reliant on Square, which accounted for 70% of the company's net revenue last year and 73% of its net revenue in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta高度依赖Square，Square占该公司去年净收入的70%，2021年第一季度净收入的73%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Although we expect the net revenue from our largest customer will decrease over time as a percentage of our total net revenue as we generate more net revenue from other customers, we expect that net revenue from a relatively small group of customers will continue to account for a significant portion of our net revenue in the near term,\" the company notes among the risk factors listed in its prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管我们预计来自最大客户的净收入占我们总净收入的百分比将随着时间的推移而下降，因为我们从其他客户那里产生了更多的净收入，但我们预计来自相对较小的客户群体的净收入将继续占我们近期净收入的很大一部分，”该公司在其招股说明书中列出的风险因素中指出。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's unprecedented to see a company going public with that much of business coming from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> customer,\" Jordan McKee, a principal analyst at 451 Research, told MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>“看到一家公司上市时如此多的业务来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>客户，”451 Research首席分析师Jordan McKee告诉MarketWatch。</blockquote></p><p> Marqeta's Cash App contract term ends in March 2024, and its contract for the Square Card -- a separate product meant for businesses -- expires in December 2024. Both agreements can automatically renew for successive <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-year periods after that.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta的Cash App合同期限将于2024年3月结束，其Square Card（一款面向企业的独立产品）的合同将于2024年12月到期。两个协议都可以自动续订<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-此后的年份。</blockquote></p><p> Bernstein analyst Harshita Rawat sees little risk that Square moves its business to another card-issuing platform, since the other companies offering this technology are those Square competes with in other areas of its business. The bigger long-term risk is that Square develops card-issuing capabilities in-house, in her view.</p><p><blockquote>Bernstein分析师Harshita Rawat认为Square将业务转移到另一个发卡平台的风险很小，因为提供这项技术的其他公司是Square在其他业务领域与之竞争的公司。她认为，更大的长期风险是Square在内部开发发卡能力。</blockquote></p><p> \"While it is very hard to definitively say whether Square is considering building an in-house solution or not ---- we believe precedence exists with Stripe and Adyen, and as such this customer-concentration risk should be baked into Marqeta's valuation,\" Rawat wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然很难明确说Square是否正在考虑构建内部解决方案，但我们认为Stripe和Adyen存在优先权，因此这种客户集中风险应该纳入Marqeta的估值中，”拉瓦特写道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Meet the competition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>迎接竞争</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Marqeta concedes that it's in a competitive market, as the company goes up against more traditional players like Global Payments Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPN\">$(GPN)$</a> and Fiserv Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISV\">$(FISV)$</a> as well as \"emerging providers\" like Stripe and Adyen NV .</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta承认，它处于一个竞争激烈的市场，因为该公司要与Global Payments Inc.等更传统的参与者竞争。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPN\">$(GPN)$</a>和Fiserv公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISV\">$(FISV)$</a>以及Stripe和Adyen NV等“新兴提供商”。</blockquote></p><p> Rawat wrote that the more old-school financial-services players \"don't have adequate capabilities and speed-to-market to compete effectively in new-age issuer market,\" though she's \"closely watching Stripe as one of the most formidable competitors for Marqeta over time.\" Stripe has existing relationships with merchants as well as a more \"off-the-shelf\" product.</p><p><blockquote>Rawat写道，更老派的金融服务参与者“没有足够的能力和上市速度来在新时代发行人市场中有效竞争”，尽管她“密切关注Stripe，将其视为Marqeta最强大的竞争对手之一”随着时间的推移。”Stripe与商家以及更“现成”的产品建立了现有关系。</blockquote></p><p> While Rawat highlighted Stripe's more generalized offering as a possible benefit for that company relative to Marqeta, which has a more customizable product, Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams saw things differently after a number of industry conversations, including with a former Marqeta product vice president. Williams pointed to the customization options as an advantage for Marqeta and said that there are high switching costs of moving to a new platform.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Rawat强调Stripe更通用的产品相对于Marqeta来说可能会给该公司带来好处，Marqeta拥有更可定制的产品，但杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师特雷弗·威廉姆斯(Trevor Williams)在进行了多次行业对话（包括与Marqeta前产品副总裁的对话）后，对情况有了不同的看法。Williams指出定制选项是Marqeta的一个优势，并表示迁移到新平台的转换成本很高。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our expert believes switches are unlikely unless a business need is not being met by Marqeta,\" he wrote, citing the \"engineering resources needed to manage a conversion, especially if card products are noncore for the customer (e.g. DoorDash isn't dependent on interchange).\"</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“我们的专家认为，除非Marqeta不能满足业务需求，否则不太可能进行转换。”他引用了“管理转换所需的工程资源，特别是如果卡产品对客户来说是非核心产品（例如DoorDash不依赖于）交换）。”</blockquote></p><p> MKM Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni wrote that the upstart fintech competitors have \"similar but arguably less sophisticated offerings.\"</p><p><blockquote>MKM Partners分析师Rohit Kulkarni写道，新兴的金融科技竞争对手拥有“类似但可以说不太复杂的产品”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>About interchange</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于interchange</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta generates most of its revenue from interchange fees, which are fees that merchant banks pay card-issuing banks when a customer makes a transaction with a credit or debit card. \"Our agreements with issuing banks provide that we receive 100% of the interchange fees for processing our customer's card transactions,\" Marqeta notes it its prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta的大部分收入来自交换费，即客户使用信用卡或借记卡进行交易时商业银行向发卡银行支付的费用。Marqeta在其招股说明书中指出：“我们与发卡银行的协议规定，我们在处理客户的卡交易时收取100%的交换费。”</blockquote></p><p> Card networks set interchange fees, but the Durbin Amendment in 2010 capped debit interchange. Some smaller banks are exempt from the Durbin limits, however, and Marqeta \"currently only contract[s] with issuing banks that are exempt from the Durbin Amendment when we provide program management services,\" according to the company's prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>信用卡网络设定了交换费用，但2010年的杜宾修正案限制了借记卡交换。然而，一些较小的银行不受杜宾限制，根据该公司的招股说明书，Marqeta“目前仅与在我们提供项目管理服务时不受杜宾修正案约束的发行银行签订合同”。</blockquote></p><p> \"In a nutshell, Durbin-exempt interchange [percentage] across consumer and commercial card transactions (both of which Marqeta is exposed to through its different offerings) is likely 1.4% average for consumer (there is a wide range depending on the type of transaction) and &gt;2% for commercial spend,\" Bernstein's Rawat wrote. \"This is in contrast to 0.5% average interchange for Durbin-regulated transactions.\"</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，消费者和商业卡交易（Marqeta通过其不同的产品接触到这两种交易）之间的Durbin豁免交换[百分比]对消费者来说可能平均为1.4%（根据交易类型的不同，范围很大））商业支出的比例&gt;2%，”伯恩斯坦的拉瓦特写道。“这与杜宾监管交易的平均交换率为0.5%形成鲜明对比。”</blockquote></p><p> Rawat believes that Marqeta's work with Durbin-exempt issuers helps the company generate higher revenue \"yields\" than more traditional partners that work with larger, nonexempt issuing banks, meaning that the company can keep a greater portion of volume as revenue. While she said that investors should monitor the risk of potential changes to exemption rules, she also wrote that \"there doesn't appear to be a willingness by the regulators or government to repeal Durbin exemption or make it harder for fintechs or tech giants to benefit from this.\"</p><p><blockquote>Rawat认为，Marqeta与Durbin豁免发行人的合作有助于该公司比与较大的非豁免发行银行合作的更传统的合作伙伴产生更高的收入“收益率”，这意味着该公司可以保留更大比例的收入。虽然她表示投资者应该监控豁免规则潜在变化的风险，但她也写道，“监管机构或政府似乎不愿意废除杜宾豁免，也不愿意让金融科技公司或科技巨头更难从中受益。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A big market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大市场</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta processed about $60 billion of volume last year, which it notes is less than 1% of the $6.7 trillion of volume that flowed through U.S. issuers in the same period, based on estimates from The Nilson Report, a payments-industry publication.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta去年处理了约600亿美元的交易量，根据支付行业出版物Nilson Report的估计，这还不到同期流经美国发行人的6.7万亿美元交易量的1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe that our share of this massive opportunity will continue to increase due to our unique platform, competitive advantages, and a strong culture of innovation,\" the company said in its prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在招股说明书中表示：“我们相信，由于我们独特的平台、竞争优势和强大的创新文化，我们在这一巨大机遇中的份额将继续增加。”</blockquote></p><p> Rawat wrote that Marqeta's \"growth runway is immense.\" Further opportunities include greater international expansion and progress with recently launched credit-processing initiatives, in her view.</p><p><blockquote>拉瓦特写道，Marqeta的“增长跑道是巨大的”。她认为，进一步的机会包括更大的国际扩张和最近推出的信贷处理计划的进展。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarqeta IPO: 5 things to know about the fintech company serving Square, DoorDash and others<blockquote>Marqeta IPO：关于为Square、DoorDash等提供服务的金融科技公司需要了解的5件事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 09:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Marqeta could be valued at more than $12 billion after IPO that seeks to raise more than $1 billion</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta寻求筹集超过10亿美元的IPO后估值可能超过120亿美元</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/412c348141d4444464c736dce5633419\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"937\"><span>Square Inc. accounted for 70% of Marqeta Inc.'s revenue last year; Marqeta's card-issuing technology helps Square offer debit cards to its Cash App customers.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Square Inc.去年占Marqeta Inc.收入的70%；Marqeta的发卡技术帮助Square向其Cash App客户提供借记卡。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors could soon have a new way to play the payments infrastructure behind some of Silicon Valley's hottest companies.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能很快就会有一种新的方式来利用硅谷一些最热门公司背后的支付基础设施。</blockquote></p><p> Companies from Instacart to DoorDash Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DASH\">$(DASH)$</a> to Affirm Holdings Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$(AFRM)$</a> rely on card payments to facilitate customer purchases, allowing delivery workers to pay for just the items in orders, for instance. Marqeta Inc. offers card-issuing technology that lets businesses build out these functions, and the financial technology company is now in the process of going public.</p><p><blockquote>从Instacart到DoorDash Inc.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DASH\">$（破折号）$</a>确认控股公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$(AFRM)$</a>依靠卡支付来方便客户购买，例如，允许送货人员只为订单中的商品付款。Marqeta Inc.提供发卡技术，让企业能够构建这些功能，这家金融科技公司目前正在上市。</blockquote></p><p> Oakland, Calif.-based Marqeta, which was incorporated in 2010, says that's it putting a modern spin on the practice of issuing customized cards. The company offers application programming interfaces, or APIs, that let companies leverage Marqeta's relationships with banks and card networks while building out virtual and physical card programs.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于加利福尼亚州奥克兰的Marqeta成立于2010年，该公司表示，这为发行定制卡的做法注入了现代元素。该公司提供应用程序编程接口(API)，让公司在构建虚拟和物理卡程序时利用Marqeta与银行和卡网络的关系。</blockquote></p><p> Square Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$(SQ)$</a> is Marqeta's largest customer, relying on Marqeta technology to power Cash Card debit cards that let users spend the funds from their mobile wallets. Marqeta also enables a function that lets Square's Cash App users receive direct deposits from employers or the government, according to the prospectus Marqeta filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ahead of its initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>广场公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$(SQ)$</a>是Marqeta最大的客户，依靠Marqeta技术为现金卡借记卡提供支持，让用户可以使用移动钱包中的资金。根据Marqeta在首次公开募股前向美国证券交易委员会提交的招股说明书，Marqeta还支持一项功能，让Square的Cash应用程序用户直接从雇主或政府接收存款。</blockquote></p><p> Marqeta is looking to offer about 45 million Class A shares priced at $20 to $24 apiece through its IPO, while founder and Chief Executive Jason Gardner, as well as early investors, receive class B shares with 10 times the voting power. The company would raise almost $1.1 billion at the high end of that proposed range while fetching a valuation over $12 billion. Underwriters, led by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, have access to an additional 6.8 million shares. Marqeta expects to list on the Nasdaq exchange under the ticker symbol MQ.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta计划通过IPO发行约4500万股A类股票，每股价格为20至24美元，而创始人兼首席执行官Jason Gardner以及早期投资者将获得投票权为10倍的B类股票。该公司将在拟议范围的高端筹集近11亿美元，同时估值超过120亿美元。以高盛和摩根大通为首的承销商可以额外获得680万股股票。Marqeta预计将在纳斯达克交易所上市，股票代码为MQ。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five things to know about Marqeta ahead of offering its shares, which are expected to begin trading on June 9.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta预计将于6月9日开始交易，在发行股票之前需要了解以下五件事。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Doubling revenue, but still in the red</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入翻倍，但仍处于亏损状态</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta generated net revenue of $290.3 million last year, more than double the $143.3 million that the company recorded a year earlier. For the first quarter of 2021, Marqeta saw revenue rise to $108.0 million from $48.4 million.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta去年的净收入为2.903亿美元，是该公司去年同期1.433亿美元的两倍多。2021年第一季度，Marqeta的收入从4840万美元增至1.08亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is still losing money, though losses narrowed in the last fiscal year. Marqeta posted a net loss of $47.7 million in 2020, compared with a loss of $58.2 million in 2019. Marqeta lost $12.8 million in the first quarter of 2021, compared with $14.5 million in the comparable period a year prior.</p><p><blockquote>尽管上一财年亏损有所收窄，但该公司仍在亏损。Marqeta公布2020年净亏损4770万美元，而2019年亏损5820万美元。Marqeta 2021年第一季度亏损1280万美元，而去年同期亏损1450万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Marqeta's total processing volume, or the dollar value of payments processed through its platform, increased 167% in the first quarter to reach $24 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta的总处理量，即通过其平台处理的支付的美元价值，在第一季度增长了167%，达到240亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Squarely its biggest customer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>绝对是其最大的客户</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta is highly reliant on Square, which accounted for 70% of the company's net revenue last year and 73% of its net revenue in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta高度依赖Square，Square占该公司去年净收入的70%，2021年第一季度净收入的73%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Although we expect the net revenue from our largest customer will decrease over time as a percentage of our total net revenue as we generate more net revenue from other customers, we expect that net revenue from a relatively small group of customers will continue to account for a significant portion of our net revenue in the near term,\" the company notes among the risk factors listed in its prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管我们预计来自最大客户的净收入占我们总净收入的百分比将随着时间的推移而下降，因为我们从其他客户那里产生了更多的净收入，但我们预计来自相对较小的客户群体的净收入将继续占我们近期净收入的很大一部分，”该公司在其招股说明书中列出的风险因素中指出。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's unprecedented to see a company going public with that much of business coming from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> customer,\" Jordan McKee, a principal analyst at 451 Research, told MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>“看到一家公司上市时如此多的业务来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>客户，”451 Research首席分析师Jordan McKee告诉MarketWatch。</blockquote></p><p> Marqeta's Cash App contract term ends in March 2024, and its contract for the Square Card -- a separate product meant for businesses -- expires in December 2024. Both agreements can automatically renew for successive <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-year periods after that.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta的Cash App合同期限将于2024年3月结束，其Square Card（一款面向企业的独立产品）的合同将于2024年12月到期。两个协议都可以自动续订<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-此后的年份。</blockquote></p><p> Bernstein analyst Harshita Rawat sees little risk that Square moves its business to another card-issuing platform, since the other companies offering this technology are those Square competes with in other areas of its business. The bigger long-term risk is that Square develops card-issuing capabilities in-house, in her view.</p><p><blockquote>Bernstein分析师Harshita Rawat认为Square将业务转移到另一个发卡平台的风险很小，因为提供这项技术的其他公司是Square在其他业务领域与之竞争的公司。她认为，更大的长期风险是Square在内部开发发卡能力。</blockquote></p><p> \"While it is very hard to definitively say whether Square is considering building an in-house solution or not ---- we believe precedence exists with Stripe and Adyen, and as such this customer-concentration risk should be baked into Marqeta's valuation,\" Rawat wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然很难明确说Square是否正在考虑构建内部解决方案，但我们认为Stripe和Adyen存在优先权，因此这种客户集中风险应该纳入Marqeta的估值中，”拉瓦特写道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Meet the competition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>迎接竞争</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Marqeta concedes that it's in a competitive market, as the company goes up against more traditional players like Global Payments Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPN\">$(GPN)$</a> and Fiserv Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISV\">$(FISV)$</a> as well as \"emerging providers\" like Stripe and Adyen NV .</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta承认，它处于一个竞争激烈的市场，因为该公司要与Global Payments Inc.等更传统的参与者竞争。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPN\">$(GPN)$</a>和Fiserv公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISV\">$(FISV)$</a>以及Stripe和Adyen NV等“新兴提供商”。</blockquote></p><p> Rawat wrote that the more old-school financial-services players \"don't have adequate capabilities and speed-to-market to compete effectively in new-age issuer market,\" though she's \"closely watching Stripe as one of the most formidable competitors for Marqeta over time.\" Stripe has existing relationships with merchants as well as a more \"off-the-shelf\" product.</p><p><blockquote>Rawat写道，更老派的金融服务参与者“没有足够的能力和上市速度来在新时代发行人市场中有效竞争”，尽管她“密切关注Stripe，将其视为Marqeta最强大的竞争对手之一”随着时间的推移。”Stripe与商家以及更“现成”的产品建立了现有关系。</blockquote></p><p> While Rawat highlighted Stripe's more generalized offering as a possible benefit for that company relative to Marqeta, which has a more customizable product, Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams saw things differently after a number of industry conversations, including with a former Marqeta product vice president. Williams pointed to the customization options as an advantage for Marqeta and said that there are high switching costs of moving to a new platform.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Rawat强调Stripe更通用的产品相对于Marqeta来说可能会给该公司带来好处，Marqeta拥有更可定制的产品，但杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师特雷弗·威廉姆斯(Trevor Williams)在进行了多次行业对话（包括与Marqeta前产品副总裁的对话）后，对情况有了不同的看法。Williams指出定制选项是Marqeta的一个优势，并表示迁移到新平台的转换成本很高。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our expert believes switches are unlikely unless a business need is not being met by Marqeta,\" he wrote, citing the \"engineering resources needed to manage a conversion, especially if card products are noncore for the customer (e.g. DoorDash isn't dependent on interchange).\"</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“我们的专家认为，除非Marqeta不能满足业务需求，否则不太可能进行转换。”他引用了“管理转换所需的工程资源，特别是如果卡产品对客户来说是非核心产品（例如DoorDash不依赖于）交换）。”</blockquote></p><p> MKM Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni wrote that the upstart fintech competitors have \"similar but arguably less sophisticated offerings.\"</p><p><blockquote>MKM Partners分析师Rohit Kulkarni写道，新兴的金融科技竞争对手拥有“类似但可以说不太复杂的产品”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>About interchange</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于interchange</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta generates most of its revenue from interchange fees, which are fees that merchant banks pay card-issuing banks when a customer makes a transaction with a credit or debit card. \"Our agreements with issuing banks provide that we receive 100% of the interchange fees for processing our customer's card transactions,\" Marqeta notes it its prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta的大部分收入来自交换费，即客户使用信用卡或借记卡进行交易时商业银行向发卡银行支付的费用。Marqeta在其招股说明书中指出：“我们与发卡银行的协议规定，我们在处理客户的卡交易时收取100%的交换费。”</blockquote></p><p> Card networks set interchange fees, but the Durbin Amendment in 2010 capped debit interchange. Some smaller banks are exempt from the Durbin limits, however, and Marqeta \"currently only contract[s] with issuing banks that are exempt from the Durbin Amendment when we provide program management services,\" according to the company's prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>信用卡网络设定了交换费用，但2010年的杜宾修正案限制了借记卡交换。然而，一些较小的银行不受杜宾限制，根据该公司的招股说明书，Marqeta“目前仅与在我们提供项目管理服务时不受杜宾修正案约束的发行银行签订合同”。</blockquote></p><p> \"In a nutshell, Durbin-exempt interchange [percentage] across consumer and commercial card transactions (both of which Marqeta is exposed to through its different offerings) is likely 1.4% average for consumer (there is a wide range depending on the type of transaction) and &gt;2% for commercial spend,\" Bernstein's Rawat wrote. \"This is in contrast to 0.5% average interchange for Durbin-regulated transactions.\"</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，消费者和商业卡交易（Marqeta通过其不同的产品接触到这两种交易）之间的Durbin豁免交换[百分比]对消费者来说可能平均为1.4%（根据交易类型的不同，范围很大））商业支出的比例&gt;2%，”伯恩斯坦的拉瓦特写道。“这与杜宾监管交易的平均交换率为0.5%形成鲜明对比。”</blockquote></p><p> Rawat believes that Marqeta's work with Durbin-exempt issuers helps the company generate higher revenue \"yields\" than more traditional partners that work with larger, nonexempt issuing banks, meaning that the company can keep a greater portion of volume as revenue. While she said that investors should monitor the risk of potential changes to exemption rules, she also wrote that \"there doesn't appear to be a willingness by the regulators or government to repeal Durbin exemption or make it harder for fintechs or tech giants to benefit from this.\"</p><p><blockquote>Rawat认为，Marqeta与Durbin豁免发行人的合作有助于该公司比与较大的非豁免发行银行合作的更传统的合作伙伴产生更高的收入“收益率”，这意味着该公司可以保留更大比例的收入。虽然她表示投资者应该监控豁免规则潜在变化的风险，但她也写道，“监管机构或政府似乎不愿意废除杜宾豁免，也不愿意让金融科技公司或科技巨头更难从中受益。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A big market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大市场</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta processed about $60 billion of volume last year, which it notes is less than 1% of the $6.7 trillion of volume that flowed through U.S. issuers in the same period, based on estimates from The Nilson Report, a payments-industry publication.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta去年处理了约600亿美元的交易量，根据支付行业出版物Nilson Report的估计，这还不到同期流经美国发行人的6.7万亿美元交易量的1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe that our share of this massive opportunity will continue to increase due to our unique platform, competitive advantages, and a strong culture of innovation,\" the company said in its prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在招股说明书中表示：“我们相信，由于我们独特的平台、竞争优势和强大的创新文化，我们在这一巨大机遇中的份额将继续增加。”</blockquote></p><p> Rawat wrote that Marqeta's \"growth runway is immense.\" Further opportunities include greater international expansion and progress with recently launched credit-processing initiatives, in her view.</p><p><blockquote>拉瓦特写道，Marqeta的“增长跑道是巨大的”。她认为，进一步的机会包括更大的国际扩张和最近推出的信贷处理计划的进展。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/marqeta-ipo-5-things-to-know-about-the-fintech-company-serving-square-doordash-and-others-11622828431?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MQ":"Marqeta, Inc.","DASH":"DoorDash, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/marqeta-ipo-5-things-to-know-about-the-fintech-company-serving-square-doordash-and-others-11622828431?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141402879","content_text":"Marqeta could be valued at more than $12 billion after IPO that seeks to raise more than $1 billion\nSquare Inc. accounted for 70% of Marqeta Inc.'s revenue last year; Marqeta's card-issuing technology helps Square offer debit cards to its Cash App customers.\nInvestors could soon have a new way to play the payments infrastructure behind some of Silicon Valley's hottest companies.\nCompanies from Instacart to DoorDash Inc. $(DASH)$ to Affirm Holdings Inc. $(AFRM)$ rely on card payments to facilitate customer purchases, allowing delivery workers to pay for just the items in orders, for instance. Marqeta Inc. offers card-issuing technology that lets businesses build out these functions, and the financial technology company is now in the process of going public.\nOakland, Calif.-based Marqeta, which was incorporated in 2010, says that's it putting a modern spin on the practice of issuing customized cards. The company offers application programming interfaces, or APIs, that let companies leverage Marqeta's relationships with banks and card networks while building out virtual and physical card programs.\nSquare Inc. $(SQ)$ is Marqeta's largest customer, relying on Marqeta technology to power Cash Card debit cards that let users spend the funds from their mobile wallets. Marqeta also enables a function that lets Square's Cash App users receive direct deposits from employers or the government, according to the prospectus Marqeta filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ahead of its initial public offering.\nMarqeta is looking to offer about 45 million Class A shares priced at $20 to $24 apiece through its IPO, while founder and Chief Executive Jason Gardner, as well as early investors, receive class B shares with 10 times the voting power. The company would raise almost $1.1 billion at the high end of that proposed range while fetching a valuation over $12 billion. Underwriters, led by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, have access to an additional 6.8 million shares. Marqeta expects to list on the Nasdaq exchange under the ticker symbol MQ.\nHere are five things to know about Marqeta ahead of offering its shares, which are expected to begin trading on June 9.\nDoubling revenue, but still in the red\nMarqeta generated net revenue of $290.3 million last year, more than double the $143.3 million that the company recorded a year earlier. For the first quarter of 2021, Marqeta saw revenue rise to $108.0 million from $48.4 million.\nThe company is still losing money, though losses narrowed in the last fiscal year. Marqeta posted a net loss of $47.7 million in 2020, compared with a loss of $58.2 million in 2019. Marqeta lost $12.8 million in the first quarter of 2021, compared with $14.5 million in the comparable period a year prior.\nMarqeta's total processing volume, or the dollar value of payments processed through its platform, increased 167% in the first quarter to reach $24 billion.\nSquarely its biggest customer\nMarqeta is highly reliant on Square, which accounted for 70% of the company's net revenue last year and 73% of its net revenue in the first quarter of 2021.\n\"Although we expect the net revenue from our largest customer will decrease over time as a percentage of our total net revenue as we generate more net revenue from other customers, we expect that net revenue from a relatively small group of customers will continue to account for a significant portion of our net revenue in the near term,\" the company notes among the risk factors listed in its prospectus.\n\"It's unprecedented to see a company going public with that much of business coming from one customer,\" Jordan McKee, a principal analyst at 451 Research, told MarketWatch.\nMarqeta's Cash App contract term ends in March 2024, and its contract for the Square Card -- a separate product meant for businesses -- expires in December 2024. Both agreements can automatically renew for successive one-year periods after that.\nBernstein analyst Harshita Rawat sees little risk that Square moves its business to another card-issuing platform, since the other companies offering this technology are those Square competes with in other areas of its business. The bigger long-term risk is that Square develops card-issuing capabilities in-house, in her view.\n\"While it is very hard to definitively say whether Square is considering building an in-house solution or not ---- we believe precedence exists with Stripe and Adyen, and as such this customer-concentration risk should be baked into Marqeta's valuation,\" Rawat wrote.\nMeet the competition\nMarqeta concedes that it's in a competitive market, as the company goes up against more traditional players like Global Payments Inc. $(GPN)$ and Fiserv Inc. $(FISV)$ as well as \"emerging providers\" like Stripe and Adyen NV .\nRawat wrote that the more old-school financial-services players \"don't have adequate capabilities and speed-to-market to compete effectively in new-age issuer market,\" though she's \"closely watching Stripe as one of the most formidable competitors for Marqeta over time.\" Stripe has existing relationships with merchants as well as a more \"off-the-shelf\" product.\nWhile Rawat highlighted Stripe's more generalized offering as a possible benefit for that company relative to Marqeta, which has a more customizable product, Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams saw things differently after a number of industry conversations, including with a former Marqeta product vice president. Williams pointed to the customization options as an advantage for Marqeta and said that there are high switching costs of moving to a new platform.\n\"Our expert believes switches are unlikely unless a business need is not being met by Marqeta,\" he wrote, citing the \"engineering resources needed to manage a conversion, especially if card products are noncore for the customer (e.g. DoorDash isn't dependent on interchange).\"\nMKM Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni wrote that the upstart fintech competitors have \"similar but arguably less sophisticated offerings.\"\nAbout interchange\nMarqeta generates most of its revenue from interchange fees, which are fees that merchant banks pay card-issuing banks when a customer makes a transaction with a credit or debit card. \"Our agreements with issuing banks provide that we receive 100% of the interchange fees for processing our customer's card transactions,\" Marqeta notes it its prospectus.\nCard networks set interchange fees, but the Durbin Amendment in 2010 capped debit interchange. Some smaller banks are exempt from the Durbin limits, however, and Marqeta \"currently only contract[s] with issuing banks that are exempt from the Durbin Amendment when we provide program management services,\" according to the company's prospectus.\n\"In a nutshell, Durbin-exempt interchange [percentage] across consumer and commercial card transactions (both of which Marqeta is exposed to through its different offerings) is likely 1.4% average for consumer (there is a wide range depending on the type of transaction) and >2% for commercial spend,\" Bernstein's Rawat wrote. \"This is in contrast to 0.5% average interchange for Durbin-regulated transactions.\"\nRawat believes that Marqeta's work with Durbin-exempt issuers helps the company generate higher revenue \"yields\" than more traditional partners that work with larger, nonexempt issuing banks, meaning that the company can keep a greater portion of volume as revenue. While she said that investors should monitor the risk of potential changes to exemption rules, she also wrote that \"there doesn't appear to be a willingness by the regulators or government to repeal Durbin exemption or make it harder for fintechs or tech giants to benefit from this.\"\nA big market\nMarqeta processed about $60 billion of volume last year, which it notes is less than 1% of the $6.7 trillion of volume that flowed through U.S. issuers in the same period, based on estimates from The Nilson Report, a payments-industry publication.\n\"We believe that our share of this massive opportunity will continue to increase due to our unique platform, competitive advantages, and a strong culture of innovation,\" the company said in its prospectus.\nRawat wrote that Marqeta's \"growth runway is immense.\" Further opportunities include greater international expansion and progress with recently launched credit-processing initiatives, in her view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DASH":0.9,"MQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115824566,"gmtCreate":1622975205955,"gmtModify":1634096457817,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Better not buy","listText":"Better not buy","text":"Better not buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115824566","repostId":"1120164826","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120164826","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622951745,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120164826?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-06 11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120164826","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was publishe","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在Seeking Alpha上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group的股价已下跌约30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整EBITDA指引疲弱（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的预期市盈率仍接近100倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，（ZG）已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向看涨期权iHome业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与ZG的抵押贷款业务融合得很好。部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG的估值似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一言以蔽之——可怜。此外，Q2指引疲弱，公司计划今年再增聘2000名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理由</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com以了解我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家的当前“Zestimate”是多少的人。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量方面排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与Realtor.com争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow集团在房地产网站市场（至少从独立访问量指标来看）的份额是其3倍以上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一页然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的对比。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的SimilarWeb评级中肯定有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们就可以认为rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大并且是市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的...观点和活动需要转化为利润，而这正是Zillow集团与其相当高的估值相比所苦苦挣扎的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow于5月4日发布了第一季度EPS报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP每股净利润为0.20美元，比预期高出0.13美元。收入为12.2亿美元，超出1.2亿美元，同比增长8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序流量强劲，第一季度平均每月用户2.21亿（同比增长15%），访问量达25亿次（同比增长19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度最有趣的细分市场是iHome（或ZG评级“Zillow提供的”），因为它约占收入的57%，并且是Zillow指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）不到平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍被认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向iHome几乎损害了公司的首要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着Zillow的广告收入面临更大压力，这些收入通常来自其iHome部门目前正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率只有4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导调整后EBITDA总额（1.28亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>将大幅下降</b>第一季度调整后EBITDA总额为1.81亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意，第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在SEC 10-Q文件中找到）为259,346,000股（同比增长23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股数量将继续增长至约2.655亿股（基于上述指导）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后的EBITDA下降，而完全稀释的股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近有所调整（请注意，自我3月份的Seeking Alpha文章以来，该股已下跌约30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到疲软的第二季度指引，就Zillow的增长前景（或非增长……）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较。此外，我不清楚改善公司未来微薄利润率的催化剂是什么。考虑到这一点尤其如此<b>Zillow计划今年再增聘2000名员工</b>，员工人数增加约40%。在我看来，在提高利润率方面，员工人数的增长将是一个重大阻力。也就是说，Zillow在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向iHome也意味着ZG现在面临更多的宏观层面风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买Zillow Group的风险是定价接近完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于ZG的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价已经达到了完美，而且自从那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了30%，现在我将简单地看涨期权ZG一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，Zillow的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成了5.51亿美元的股票发行后，该公司在本季度末拥有47亿美元现金（高于2020年底的39亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为22.59亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末已发行的2.655亿股稀释后股票，该公司估计每股净现金为9.19美元。Zillow可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接投资房地产市场而面临的较高风险。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可能会随时发生变化，并可能导致ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结和结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Zillow的第一季度报告确实比环比有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其表现出的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎根本不正常。尽管房地产市场火热且高度升值，但第二季度调整后EBITDA仍环比下降...嗯，我只是无法理解目前的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到约50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对其感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以ZG的五年价格图表结束，并指出我的50美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来的每股收益报告问题并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前110美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 11:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在Seeking Alpha上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group的股价已下跌约30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整EBITDA指引疲弱（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的预期市盈率仍接近100倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，（ZG）已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向看涨期权iHome业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与ZG的抵押贷款业务融合得很好。部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG的估值似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一言以蔽之——可怜。此外，Q2指引疲弱，公司计划今年再增聘2000名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理由</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com以了解我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家的当前“Zestimate”是多少的人。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量方面排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与Realtor.com争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow集团在房地产网站市场（至少从独立访问量指标来看）的份额是其3倍以上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一页然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的对比。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的SimilarWeb评级中肯定有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们就可以认为rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大并且是市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的...观点和活动需要转化为利润，而这正是Zillow集团与其相当高的估值相比所苦苦挣扎的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow于5月4日发布了第一季度EPS报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP每股净利润为0.20美元，比预期高出0.13美元。收入为12.2亿美元，超出1.2亿美元，同比增长8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序流量强劲，第一季度平均每月用户2.21亿（同比增长15%），访问量达25亿次（同比增长19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度最有趣的细分市场是iHome（或ZG评级“Zillow提供的”），因为它约占收入的57%，并且是Zillow指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）不到平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍被认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向iHome几乎损害了公司的首要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着Zillow的广告收入面临更大压力，这些收入通常来自其iHome部门目前正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率只有4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导调整后EBITDA总额（1.28亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>将大幅下降</b>第一季度调整后EBITDA总额为1.81亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意，第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在SEC 10-Q文件中找到）为259,346,000股（同比增长23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股数量将继续增长至约2.655亿股（基于上述指导）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后的EBITDA下降，而完全稀释的股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近有所调整（请注意，自我3月份的Seeking Alpha文章以来，该股已下跌约30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到疲软的第二季度指引，就Zillow的增长前景（或非增长……）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较。此外，我不清楚改善公司未来微薄利润率的催化剂是什么。考虑到这一点尤其如此<b>Zillow计划今年再增聘2000名员工</b>，员工人数增加约40%。在我看来，在提高利润率方面，员工人数的增长将是一个重大阻力。也就是说，Zillow在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向iHome也意味着ZG现在面临更多的宏观层面风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买Zillow Group的风险是定价接近完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于ZG的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价已经达到了完美，而且自从那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了30%，现在我将简单地看涨期权ZG一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，Zillow的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成了5.51亿美元的股票发行后，该公司在本季度末拥有47亿美元现金（高于2020年底的39亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为22.59亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末已发行的2.655亿股稀释后股票，该公司估计每股净现金为9.19美元。Zillow可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接投资房地产市场而面临的较高风险。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可能会随时发生变化，并可能导致ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结和结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Zillow的第一季度报告确实比环比有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其表现出的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎根本不正常。尽管房地产市场火热且高度升值，但第二季度调整后EBITDA仍环比下降...嗯，我只是无法理解目前的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到约50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对其感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以ZG的五年价格图表结束，并指出我的50美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来的每股收益报告问题并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前110美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120164826","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.\nHowever, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.\nThat is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.\nYet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.\n\nPhoto by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe Zillow Group (ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.\nInvestment Rationale\nLike many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.\nIndeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:\nSource:Statista\nBut of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:\nSource:SimilarWeb.com\nWhen it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.\nHowever, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.\nQ1 Earnings\nZillow released its Q1 EPS report on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).\nThe most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.\nHowever, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:\nSource: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report\nAs can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?\nGoing Forward\nThe chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:\nSource: Zillow's Q1 EPS report\nAt the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that will be down considerably from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.\nIn addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).\nValuation\nSo we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.\nYet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March Zillow: Take Profits), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.\nThat is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.\nMeantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.\nRisks\nThe risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.\nThe goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.\nThat compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.\nSummary & Conclusion\nWhile Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.\nI will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.\nData byYCharts","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"Z":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112218367,"gmtCreate":1622873165559,"gmtModify":1634097142656,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nope","listText":"Nope","text":"Nope","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112218367","repostId":"1148130971","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li>  <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li>  <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>创新技术的开拓者</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\"><span>Source:ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.</p><p><blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Global Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\"><span>Source: ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote></p><p> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.</p><p><blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO’s Historical Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的历史表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.</p><p><blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.</p><p><blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO vs. LI and XPEV</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Finviz</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Finviz</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务风险及挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote></p><p> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 12:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li>  <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li>  <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>创新技术的开拓者</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\"><span>Source:ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.</p><p><blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Global Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\"><span>Source: ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote></p><p> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.</p><p><blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO’s Historical Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的历史表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.</p><p><blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.</p><p><blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO vs. LI and XPEV</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Finviz</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Finviz</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务风险及挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote></p><p> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112211903,"gmtCreate":1622873133302,"gmtModify":1634097143619,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Market is really volatile now&nbsp;","listText":"Market is really volatile now&nbsp;","text":"Market is really volatile now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112211903","repostId":"1162130057","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162130057","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622862397,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162130057?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 11:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 would be below 1,600 without these 3 pillars and those supports are now weakening<blockquote>如果没有这三大支柱，标普500将低于1,600点，而这些支撑现在正在减弱</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162130057","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors may need to consider private equity to capture the returns that publicly traded stocks hav","content":"<p>Investors may need to consider private equity to capture the returns that publicly traded stocks have provided</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能需要考虑私募股权来获取公开交易股票提供的回报</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab21eb0dc365f342dd26c49af9020305\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Stock prices can’t indefinitely grow faster than the economy. This provides a crucial reality check for U.S. stock-market bulls, many of whom believe stocks can continue outperforming the U.S. economy in perpetuity. Over the past decade, for example, the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.88%on an inflation-adjusted total-return basis has outperformed real U.S. GDP by an annualized margin of 11.9% to 2.0%.</p><p><blockquote>股价不可能无限期地快于经济增长。这为美国股市多头提供了一个至关重要的现实检验，他们中的许多人认为股市可以永远跑赢美国经济。例如，在过去十年中，标准普尔500SPX指数（经通胀调整后的总回报率为+0.88%）的表现优于美国实际GDP，年化幅度为11.9%至2.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, it could be the other way around, according to an argument advanced some years ago by Robert Arnott, founder of&nbsp;Research Affiliates, and William Bernstein, co-principal at&nbsp;Efficient Frontier Advisors. They pointed out that a portion of economic growth is attributable to non-public companies, such as startups and the like — a category they refer to as “entrepreneurial capitalism.”</p><p><blockquote>根据Research Affiliates创始人罗伯特·阿诺特(Robert Arnott)和Efficient Frontier Advisors联席负责人威廉·伯恩斯坦(William Bernstein)几年前提出的观点，展望未来，情况可能会恰恰相反。他们指出，经济增长的一部分归功于非上市公司，如初创公司等——他们将这一类别称为“创业资本主义”。</blockquote></p><p> By definition, economic growth that non-public companies generate will not show up in the stock market— which only reflects the performance of publicly traded corporations. Arnott and Bernstein estimate that share prices historically have grown about two annualized percentage points slower than the overall economy.</p><p><blockquote>根据定义，非上市公司产生的经济增长不会出现在股票市场上——股票市场只反映上市公司的表现。阿诺特和伯恩斯坦估计，历史上股价的年化增长速度比整体经济慢约两个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Such slippage has dire implications for the U.S. stock market’s future return. But I want to first discuss why the stock market’s stunning performance over the past decade was not due to economic growth. Instead, the bulk of that performance was due to three factors:</p><p><blockquote>这种下滑对美国股市未来的回报产生了可怕的影响。但我想首先讨论一下，为什么过去十年股市的惊人表现不是因为经济增长。相反，这一表现主要归功于三个因素：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Valuation changes: The S&amp;P 500’s price/earnings ratio has doubled over the past decade.</li>  <li>Increasing profit margins: The S&amp;P 500’s operating margin over the past four quarters has averaged nearly two percentage points higher than it was a decade ago, according to data from Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.</li>  <li>Net buybacks: Over the past decade corporations have repurchased more shares than new shares they have issued. This has reduced the number of shares outstanding, and increased earnings per share.</li> </ul> To appreciate the impact of these three factors, consider that the S&amp;P 500 now would trade below 1,600 if there had been no change at all over the past decade with each of these three dimensions. While the chance of such a perfect storm is so low that you might be inclined to dismiss it out of hand, Bernstein said in an interview that he wouldn’t discount the possibility.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>估值变化：标普500的市盈率在过去十年翻了一番。</li><li>利润率不断提高：根据标普道琼斯指数高级指数分析师Howard Silverblatt的数据，标普500过去四个季度的营业利润率平均比十年前高出近两个百分点。</li><li>净回购：在过去十年中，企业回购的股票多于其发行的新股。这减少了流通股数量，增加了每股收益。</li></ul>为了理解这三个因素的影响，请考虑一下，如果这三个维度在过去十年中没有任何变化，标普500现在的交易价格将低于1,600点。虽然这种完美风暴的可能性如此之低，以至于你可能会倾向于立即忽视它，但伯恩斯坦在接受采访时表示，他不会忽视这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Projecting the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预测未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The picture this analysis paints about the U.S. stock market’s future isn’t pretty, assuming the U.S. economy grows at the same pace over the next decade as the last. In that case, the only way the market can produce annualized returns greater than the low single-digits is for the P/E ratio and profit margins to continue rising or for net buybacks to continue reducing the number of shares outstanding — or for some combination of these three factors to occur.</p><p><blockquote>假设美国经济在未来十年以与上一个十年相同的速度增长，这份分析描绘的美国股市未来的图景并不美好。在这种情况下，市场能够产生高于低个位数的年化回报的唯一方法是市盈率和利润率继续上升，或者净回购继续减少已发行股票数量——或者这三个因素的某种组合。</blockquote></p><p> More likely, these three tailwinds will become headwinds. P/E ratios&nbsp;already are at or near the high end of their historical distribution, and they can’t go up forever. Profit margins also are at or near record levels and,as I argued earlier this week, there are good reasons to expect those margins to decline in coming years. While it’s possible that buybacks will outpace share issuance in coming years, that’s hardly a sure bet. Over the past 12 months, for example, there have been negative net buybacks — i.e. more shares have been issued than repurchased. In fact, Arnott pointed out in an email, for most of U.S. stock market history net buybacks have been negative.</p><p><blockquote>更有可能的是，这三个顺风会变成逆风。市盈率已经处于或接近历史分布的高端，而且不可能永远上升。利润率也处于或接近创纪录水平，正如我本周早些时候所说，有充分的理由预计这些利润率在未来几年将下降。虽然未来几年回购可能会超过股票发行，但这并不是一个确定的赌注。例如，在过去12个月中，净回购为负，即发行的股票多于回购的股票。事实上，阿诺特在一封电子邮件中指出，在美国股市历史的大部分时间里，净回购都是负数。</blockquote></p><p> One can also wonder if an even-greater share of economic growth in coming years will accrue to non-public equity. Andrew Karolyi, dean of Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business, said in an interview that private equity now plays a much bigger role than in the past. One possible future, he said, is that the growth of the public stock market lags that of the overall economy by an increasing amount.</p><p><blockquote>人们还可能想知道，未来几年，非公募股权是否会在经济增长中占据更大的份额。康奈尔大学SC Johnson商学院院长Andrew Karolyi在接受采访时表示，私募股权现在发挥的作用比过去大得多。他说，一个可能的未来是，公开股票市场的增长越来越落后于整体经济。</blockquote></p><p> One measure of the declining economic importance of the public corporation is the decreasing number of publicly traded companies, as reflected in the chart below. This decline has been overlooked by many on Wall Street, given their focus on the red-hot IPO market. But, as Karolyi pointed out, even as more companies are coming to market, there have also been an increasing number of delistings.</p><p><blockquote>上市公司经济重要性下降的一个衡量标准是上市公司数量的减少，如下图所示。鉴于华尔街的许多人专注于炙手可热的IPO市场，这种下降被他们忽视了。但是，正如卡罗利指出的那样，尽管越来越多的公司上市，但退市的数量也在增加。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de45fd68cb24b2bdf2791d1f6b9fac0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"922\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> For example, according to Refinitiv, through the end of May 2021 there was more than $1.6 trillion in domestic M&amp;A activity, almost 50% higher than the previous calendar year that held the record for the most M&amp;A activity for the first five months. We need to focus on both IPOs and delistings, Karolyi argued, just as demographers can only analyze population trends by focusing on births and deaths.</p><p><blockquote>例如，根据路孚特的数据，截至2021年5月底，国内M&amp;A活动超过1.6万亿美元，比保持前五个月M&amp;A活动最多记录的上一年高出近50%。卡罗利认为，我们需要同时关注IPO和退市，就像人口学家只能通过关注出生和死亡来分析人口趋势一样。</blockquote></p><p> “The role of publicly traded corporations in the overall economy may be changing,” Karolyi said. Their possible life cycle paths are expanding to include many that don’t end in becoming publicly traded, for example, or waiting much longer before doing so. Given the abundant liquidity in the private equity market, he added, it may very well become the preferred exit strategy for many companies that previously would have gone public.</p><p><blockquote>“上市公司在整体经济中的作用可能正在发生变化，”卡罗利说。例如，它们可能的生命周期路径正在扩大，包括许多不会以公开交易或等待更长时间才能公开交易而告终的公司。他补充说，鉴于私募股权市场流动性充裕，这很可能成为许多此前上市公司的首选退出策略。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line? The past decade was extraordinary for publicly traded U.S. stocks. Don’t expect that to continue indefinitely.</p><p><blockquote>底线？过去十年对于公开交易的美国股票来说是不平凡的。不要指望这种情况会无限期地持续下去。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 would be below 1,600 without these 3 pillars and those supports are now weakening<blockquote>如果没有这三大支柱，标普500将低于1,600点，而这些支撑现在正在减弱</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 would be below 1,600 without these 3 pillars and those supports are now weakening<blockquote>如果没有这三大支柱，标普500将低于1,600点，而这些支撑现在正在减弱</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 11:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors may need to consider private equity to capture the returns that publicly traded stocks have provided</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能需要考虑私募股权来获取公开交易股票提供的回报</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab21eb0dc365f342dd26c49af9020305\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Stock prices can’t indefinitely grow faster than the economy. This provides a crucial reality check for U.S. stock-market bulls, many of whom believe stocks can continue outperforming the U.S. economy in perpetuity. Over the past decade, for example, the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.88%on an inflation-adjusted total-return basis has outperformed real U.S. GDP by an annualized margin of 11.9% to 2.0%.</p><p><blockquote>股价不可能无限期地快于经济增长。这为美国股市多头提供了一个至关重要的现实检验，他们中的许多人认为股市可以永远跑赢美国经济。例如，在过去十年中，标准普尔500SPX指数（经通胀调整后的总回报率为+0.88%）的表现优于美国实际GDP，年化幅度为11.9%至2.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, it could be the other way around, according to an argument advanced some years ago by Robert Arnott, founder of&nbsp;Research Affiliates, and William Bernstein, co-principal at&nbsp;Efficient Frontier Advisors. They pointed out that a portion of economic growth is attributable to non-public companies, such as startups and the like — a category they refer to as “entrepreneurial capitalism.”</p><p><blockquote>根据Research Affiliates创始人罗伯特·阿诺特(Robert Arnott)和Efficient Frontier Advisors联席负责人威廉·伯恩斯坦(William Bernstein)几年前提出的观点，展望未来，情况可能会恰恰相反。他们指出，经济增长的一部分归功于非上市公司，如初创公司等——他们将这一类别称为“创业资本主义”。</blockquote></p><p> By definition, economic growth that non-public companies generate will not show up in the stock market— which only reflects the performance of publicly traded corporations. Arnott and Bernstein estimate that share prices historically have grown about two annualized percentage points slower than the overall economy.</p><p><blockquote>根据定义，非上市公司产生的经济增长不会出现在股票市场上——股票市场只反映上市公司的表现。阿诺特和伯恩斯坦估计，历史上股价的年化增长速度比整体经济慢约两个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Such slippage has dire implications for the U.S. stock market’s future return. But I want to first discuss why the stock market’s stunning performance over the past decade was not due to economic growth. Instead, the bulk of that performance was due to three factors:</p><p><blockquote>这种下滑对美国股市未来的回报产生了可怕的影响。但我想首先讨论一下，为什么过去十年股市的惊人表现不是因为经济增长。相反，这一表现主要归功于三个因素：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Valuation changes: The S&amp;P 500’s price/earnings ratio has doubled over the past decade.</li>  <li>Increasing profit margins: The S&amp;P 500’s operating margin over the past four quarters has averaged nearly two percentage points higher than it was a decade ago, according to data from Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.</li>  <li>Net buybacks: Over the past decade corporations have repurchased more shares than new shares they have issued. This has reduced the number of shares outstanding, and increased earnings per share.</li> </ul> To appreciate the impact of these three factors, consider that the S&amp;P 500 now would trade below 1,600 if there had been no change at all over the past decade with each of these three dimensions. While the chance of such a perfect storm is so low that you might be inclined to dismiss it out of hand, Bernstein said in an interview that he wouldn’t discount the possibility.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>估值变化：标普500的市盈率在过去十年翻了一番。</li><li>利润率不断提高：根据标普道琼斯指数高级指数分析师Howard Silverblatt的数据，标普500过去四个季度的营业利润率平均比十年前高出近两个百分点。</li><li>净回购：在过去十年中，企业回购的股票多于其发行的新股。这减少了流通股数量，增加了每股收益。</li></ul>为了理解这三个因素的影响，请考虑一下，如果这三个维度在过去十年中没有任何变化，标普500现在的交易价格将低于1,600点。虽然这种完美风暴的可能性如此之低，以至于你可能会倾向于立即忽视它，但伯恩斯坦在接受采访时表示，他不会忽视这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Projecting the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预测未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The picture this analysis paints about the U.S. stock market’s future isn’t pretty, assuming the U.S. economy grows at the same pace over the next decade as the last. In that case, the only way the market can produce annualized returns greater than the low single-digits is for the P/E ratio and profit margins to continue rising or for net buybacks to continue reducing the number of shares outstanding — or for some combination of these three factors to occur.</p><p><blockquote>假设美国经济在未来十年以与上一个十年相同的速度增长，这份分析描绘的美国股市未来的图景并不美好。在这种情况下，市场能够产生高于低个位数的年化回报的唯一方法是市盈率和利润率继续上升，或者净回购继续减少已发行股票数量——或者这三个因素的某种组合。</blockquote></p><p> More likely, these three tailwinds will become headwinds. P/E ratios&nbsp;already are at or near the high end of their historical distribution, and they can’t go up forever. Profit margins also are at or near record levels and,as I argued earlier this week, there are good reasons to expect those margins to decline in coming years. While it’s possible that buybacks will outpace share issuance in coming years, that’s hardly a sure bet. Over the past 12 months, for example, there have been negative net buybacks — i.e. more shares have been issued than repurchased. In fact, Arnott pointed out in an email, for most of U.S. stock market history net buybacks have been negative.</p><p><blockquote>更有可能的是，这三个顺风会变成逆风。市盈率已经处于或接近历史分布的高端，而且不可能永远上升。利润率也处于或接近创纪录水平，正如我本周早些时候所说，有充分的理由预计这些利润率在未来几年将下降。虽然未来几年回购可能会超过股票发行，但这并不是一个确定的赌注。例如，在过去12个月中，净回购为负，即发行的股票多于回购的股票。事实上，阿诺特在一封电子邮件中指出，在美国股市历史的大部分时间里，净回购都是负数。</blockquote></p><p> One can also wonder if an even-greater share of economic growth in coming years will accrue to non-public equity. Andrew Karolyi, dean of Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business, said in an interview that private equity now plays a much bigger role than in the past. One possible future, he said, is that the growth of the public stock market lags that of the overall economy by an increasing amount.</p><p><blockquote>人们还可能想知道，未来几年，非公募股权是否会在经济增长中占据更大的份额。康奈尔大学SC Johnson商学院院长Andrew Karolyi在接受采访时表示，私募股权现在发挥的作用比过去大得多。他说，一个可能的未来是，公开股票市场的增长越来越落后于整体经济。</blockquote></p><p> One measure of the declining economic importance of the public corporation is the decreasing number of publicly traded companies, as reflected in the chart below. This decline has been overlooked by many on Wall Street, given their focus on the red-hot IPO market. But, as Karolyi pointed out, even as more companies are coming to market, there have also been an increasing number of delistings.</p><p><blockquote>上市公司经济重要性下降的一个衡量标准是上市公司数量的减少，如下图所示。鉴于华尔街的许多人专注于炙手可热的IPO市场，这种下降被他们忽视了。但是，正如卡罗利指出的那样，尽管越来越多的公司上市，但退市的数量也在增加。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de45fd68cb24b2bdf2791d1f6b9fac0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"922\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> For example, according to Refinitiv, through the end of May 2021 there was more than $1.6 trillion in domestic M&amp;A activity, almost 50% higher than the previous calendar year that held the record for the most M&amp;A activity for the first five months. We need to focus on both IPOs and delistings, Karolyi argued, just as demographers can only analyze population trends by focusing on births and deaths.</p><p><blockquote>例如，根据路孚特的数据，截至2021年5月底，国内M&amp;A活动超过1.6万亿美元，比保持前五个月M&amp;A活动最多记录的上一年高出近50%。卡罗利认为，我们需要同时关注IPO和退市，就像人口学家只能通过关注出生和死亡来分析人口趋势一样。</blockquote></p><p> “The role of publicly traded corporations in the overall economy may be changing,” Karolyi said. Their possible life cycle paths are expanding to include many that don’t end in becoming publicly traded, for example, or waiting much longer before doing so. Given the abundant liquidity in the private equity market, he added, it may very well become the preferred exit strategy for many companies that previously would have gone public.</p><p><blockquote>“上市公司在整体经济中的作用可能正在发生变化，”卡罗利说。例如，它们可能的生命周期路径正在扩大，包括许多不会以公开交易或等待更长时间才能公开交易而告终的公司。他补充说，鉴于私募股权市场流动性充裕，这很可能成为许多此前上市公司的首选退出策略。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line? The past decade was extraordinary for publicly traded U.S. stocks. Don’t expect that to continue indefinitely.</p><p><blockquote>底线？过去十年对于公开交易的美国股票来说是不平凡的。不要指望这种情况会无限期地持续下去。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-would-be-below-1-600-without-these-3-pillars-and-those-supports-are-now-weakening-11622781972?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-would-be-below-1-600-without-these-3-pillars-and-those-supports-are-now-weakening-11622781972?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162130057","content_text":"Investors may need to consider private equity to capture the returns that publicly traded stocks have provided\nGETTY IMAGES\nStock prices can’t indefinitely grow faster than the economy. This provides a crucial reality check for U.S. stock-market bulls, many of whom believe stocks can continue outperforming the U.S. economy in perpetuity. Over the past decade, for example, the S&P 500SPX,+0.88%on an inflation-adjusted total-return basis has outperformed real U.S. GDP by an annualized margin of 11.9% to 2.0%.\nGoing forward, it could be the other way around, according to an argument advanced some years ago by Robert Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, and William Bernstein, co-principal at Efficient Frontier Advisors. They pointed out that a portion of economic growth is attributable to non-public companies, such as startups and the like — a category they refer to as “entrepreneurial capitalism.”\nBy definition, economic growth that non-public companies generate will not show up in the stock market— which only reflects the performance of publicly traded corporations. Arnott and Bernstein estimate that share prices historically have grown about two annualized percentage points slower than the overall economy.\nSuch slippage has dire implications for the U.S. stock market’s future return. But I want to first discuss why the stock market’s stunning performance over the past decade was not due to economic growth. Instead, the bulk of that performance was due to three factors:\n\nValuation changes: The S&P 500’s price/earnings ratio has doubled over the past decade.\nIncreasing profit margins: The S&P 500’s operating margin over the past four quarters has averaged nearly two percentage points higher than it was a decade ago, according to data from Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.\nNet buybacks: Over the past decade corporations have repurchased more shares than new shares they have issued. This has reduced the number of shares outstanding, and increased earnings per share.\n\nTo appreciate the impact of these three factors, consider that the S&P 500 now would trade below 1,600 if there had been no change at all over the past decade with each of these three dimensions. While the chance of such a perfect storm is so low that you might be inclined to dismiss it out of hand, Bernstein said in an interview that he wouldn’t discount the possibility.\nProjecting the future\nThe picture this analysis paints about the U.S. stock market’s future isn’t pretty, assuming the U.S. economy grows at the same pace over the next decade as the last. In that case, the only way the market can produce annualized returns greater than the low single-digits is for the P/E ratio and profit margins to continue rising or for net buybacks to continue reducing the number of shares outstanding — or for some combination of these three factors to occur.\nMore likely, these three tailwinds will become headwinds. P/E ratios already are at or near the high end of their historical distribution, and they can’t go up forever. Profit margins also are at or near record levels and,as I argued earlier this week, there are good reasons to expect those margins to decline in coming years. While it’s possible that buybacks will outpace share issuance in coming years, that’s hardly a sure bet. Over the past 12 months, for example, there have been negative net buybacks — i.e. more shares have been issued than repurchased. In fact, Arnott pointed out in an email, for most of U.S. stock market history net buybacks have been negative.\nOne can also wonder if an even-greater share of economic growth in coming years will accrue to non-public equity. Andrew Karolyi, dean of Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business, said in an interview that private equity now plays a much bigger role than in the past. One possible future, he said, is that the growth of the public stock market lags that of the overall economy by an increasing amount.\nOne measure of the declining economic importance of the public corporation is the decreasing number of publicly traded companies, as reflected in the chart below. This decline has been overlooked by many on Wall Street, given their focus on the red-hot IPO market. But, as Karolyi pointed out, even as more companies are coming to market, there have also been an increasing number of delistings.\n\nFor example, according to Refinitiv, through the end of May 2021 there was more than $1.6 trillion in domestic M&A activity, almost 50% higher than the previous calendar year that held the record for the most M&A activity for the first five months. We need to focus on both IPOs and delistings, Karolyi argued, just as demographers can only analyze population trends by focusing on births and deaths.\n“The role of publicly traded corporations in the overall economy may be changing,” Karolyi said. Their possible life cycle paths are expanding to include many that don’t end in becoming publicly traded, for example, or waiting much longer before doing so. Given the abundant liquidity in the private equity market, he added, it may very well become the preferred exit strategy for many companies that previously would have gone public.\nThe bottom line? The past decade was extraordinary for publicly traded U.S. stocks. Don’t expect that to continue indefinitely.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116522443,"gmtCreate":1622813126282,"gmtModify":1634097772694,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mean reverting always win","listText":"Mean reverting always win","text":"Mean reverting always 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sharing","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40d84f164b56350ce6614d9d958cb0e5","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118050178","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133210992,"gmtCreate":1621751573216,"gmtModify":1634186769461,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133210992","repostId":"1153943475","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133234984,"gmtCreate":1621751424448,"gmtModify":1634186771621,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Investment God&nbsp;","listText":"Investment God&nbsp;","text":"Investment God","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133234984","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1856,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133235286,"gmtCreate":1621751384345,"gmtModify":1634186772102,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Too crazy, it's like a dream&nbsp;","listText":"Too crazy, it's like a dream&nbsp;","text":"Too crazy, it's like a dream","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133235286","repostId":"2137907575","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106139486,"gmtCreate":1620092074545,"gmtModify":1631887102801,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWKS\">$Skyworks Solutions(SWKS)$</a>sad...Bought at it's peak....Silly me&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWKS\">$Skyworks Solutions(SWKS)$</a>sad...Bought at it's peak....Silly me&nbsp;","text":"$Skyworks Solutions(SWKS)$sad...Bought at it's peak....Silly me","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/422e46912bc7bf6043e3efc5edc4a621","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106139486","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106130273,"gmtCreate":1620092000592,"gmtModify":1634207891590,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why selling in May ???","listText":"Why selling in May ???","text":"Why selling in May ???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106130273","repostId":"1191503043","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191503043","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620089476,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191503043?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 08:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Old Wall Street wisdom about selling in May no longer makes sense<blockquote>华尔街关于五月抛售的古老智慧不再有意义</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191503043","media":"CNN","summary":"New York (CNN Business)It's the first trading day of May for thestock market. And guess what? Invest","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)It's the first trading day of May for thestock market. And guess what? Investors should ignore the dumb, antiquated saying about selling in May and going away.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）这是股市五月的第一个交易日。你猜怎么着？投资者应该忽略关于五月卖出然后离开的愚蠢、过时的说法。</blockquote></p><p> The anachronistic idea goes something like this: An investor should lock in gains now and then mostly ignore the markets for the summer while sitting on a beach somewhere. And in 2021, it makes absolutely no sense.For one, it's not as if Corporate America and the economy go on summer break.Companies still announceearnings, make acquisitions and go public. TheFederal Reserve continues to meetand the government puts out data on the job market, retail sales, inflation and plenty of other things.With that in mind, investors need topay attention to the headlines— not what month it is.\"There is no proof of any kind that selling in May and going away will add value,\" said Paul Zemsky, chief investment officer of multi-asset strategies and solutions at Voya Investment Management.</p><p><blockquote>这个不合时宜的想法是这样的：投资者应该立即锁定收益，然后坐在某个地方的海滩上，在夏季基本上忽略市场。而在2021年，这完全没有意义。首先，美国企业和经济并没有进入暑假。公司仍然会公布收益、进行收购并上市。美联储继续开会，政府公布就业市场、零售销售、通货膨胀和许多其他数据。考虑到这一点，投资者需要关注头条新闻，而不是现在是哪个月。“没有任何证据表明5月份出售并离开会增加价值，”多资产首席投资官保罗·泽姆斯基(Paul Zemsky)表示Voya Investment Management的策略和解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> \"First of all, market timing is very hard. And we like stocks and are not going to change that opinion just because the calender says May,\" Zemsky said. \"The fundamentals remain strong and that's what we look at. The economy is on great footing.\"Corporate earnings for the first quarter have been solid across the board, and the outlooks from companies for the rest of the year have been healthy too.\"The strength of the current economic recovery and rebound in corporate earnings suggest it may be premature to expect a near-term seasonal peak in equities,\" said strategists at UBS Global Wealth Management in a recent report. \"We recommend investors stay invested, diversify exposure, and keep control of their wealth plan.\"</p><p><blockquote>“首先，市场时机非常困难。我们喜欢股票，不会因为日历上写着五月就改变这一观点，”泽姆斯基说。“基本面依然强劲，这也是我们所关注的。经济处于良好的基础上。”第一季度的企业盈利全面稳健，今年剩余时间的企业前景也很健康。瑞银全球财富管理策略师在最近的一份报告中表示：“当前经济复苏的力度和企业盈利的反弹表明，预计股市近期将出现季节性见顶可能还为时过早。我们建议投资者保持投资，分散投资，并控制自己的财富计划。”</blockquote></p><p> It's also worth pointing out that selling in May and going away has been agood way to lose moneyfor the past few years. The S&amp;P 500 rose 12% between the start of May and end of October last year.And according to data compiled by LPL Financial, the S&amp;P 500 has averaged a 3.8% gain between May and October over the past 10 years. The only times the market went down in that period was in 2011 (an 8.1% drop) and in 2015, when the index fell a mere 0.3%.With that in mind, LPL Financial chief market strategist Ryan Detrick isn't advising that investors follow a \"sell in May\" strategy.\"With an accommodative Fed, fiscal and monetary policy, along with an economy that is opening faster than nearly anyone expected, we'd use any weakness as an opportunity to add to positions,\" Detrick said in a report.Still, one investing strategist is worried that the market's strong start to the year could lead to a summer swoon. After all, the S&amp;P 500 is now up nearly 12% in 2021 and is not far from a record high.\"The catalysts are strong for a sell in May strategy with the hot start to 2021,\" said Jeff Carbone, managing partner for Cornerstone Wealth, in an email. \"It may be time to take some profits from the strong growth sectors that have had big runs in 2021.\"\"There looks to be some runway left for growth and room for the markets to run but it may be a shorter runway and we are landing in LaGuardia, not Denver,\" he added, referring to two US airports known for their short and long landing strips.</p><p><blockquote>还值得指出的是，在过去几年里，五月份卖出然后离开一直是亏损的好方法。去年5月初至10月底，标普500上涨了12%。根据LPL Financial汇编的数据，过去10年5月至10月期间，标普500平均上涨3.8%。在此期间市场唯一一次下跌是在2011年（下跌8.1%）和2015年，当时该指数仅下跌0.3%。考虑到这一点，LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick并不建议投资者遵循“五月卖出”策略。德特里克在一份报告中表示：“随着美联储、财政和货币政策的宽松，以及经济开放速度快于几乎所有人的预期，我们会利用任何疲软作为增仓的机会。”尽管如此，一位投资策略师担心，今年市场的强劲开局可能会导致夏季低迷。毕竟，标普500目前在2021年上涨了近12%，距离历史新高不远了。基石财富管理合伙人杰夫·卡本（Jeff Carbone）在一封电子邮件中表示：“随着2021年的火热开局，5月份卖出策略的催化剂很强。”“可能是时候从2021年大幅上涨的强劲增长行业中获利了。”“看起来还有一些跑道可供增长和市场运行，但这可能是一条较短的跑道，我们降落在拉瓜迪亚机场，而不是丹佛市，”他补充道，他指的是两个以短跑道和长跑道而闻名的美国机场。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Old Wall Street wisdom about selling in May no longer makes sense<blockquote>华尔街关于五月抛售的古老智慧不再有意义</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOld Wall Street wisdom about selling in May no longer makes sense<blockquote>华尔街关于五月抛售的古老智慧不再有意义</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-04 08:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)It's the first trading day of May for thestock market. And guess what? Investors should ignore the dumb, antiquated saying about selling in May and going away.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）这是股市五月的第一个交易日。你猜怎么着？投资者应该忽略关于五月卖出然后离开的愚蠢、过时的说法。</blockquote></p><p> The anachronistic idea goes something like this: An investor should lock in gains now and then mostly ignore the markets for the summer while sitting on a beach somewhere. And in 2021, it makes absolutely no sense.For one, it's not as if Corporate America and the economy go on summer break.Companies still announceearnings, make acquisitions and go public. TheFederal Reserve continues to meetand the government puts out data on the job market, retail sales, inflation and plenty of other things.With that in mind, investors need topay attention to the headlines— not what month it is.\"There is no proof of any kind that selling in May and going away will add value,\" said Paul Zemsky, chief investment officer of multi-asset strategies and solutions at Voya Investment Management.</p><p><blockquote>这个不合时宜的想法是这样的：投资者应该立即锁定收益，然后坐在某个地方的海滩上，在夏季基本上忽略市场。而在2021年，这完全没有意义。首先，美国企业和经济并没有进入暑假。公司仍然会公布收益、进行收购并上市。美联储继续开会，政府公布就业市场、零售销售、通货膨胀和许多其他数据。考虑到这一点，投资者需要关注头条新闻，而不是现在是哪个月。“没有任何证据表明5月份出售并离开会增加价值，”多资产首席投资官保罗·泽姆斯基(Paul Zemsky)表示Voya Investment Management的策略和解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> \"First of all, market timing is very hard. And we like stocks and are not going to change that opinion just because the calender says May,\" Zemsky said. \"The fundamentals remain strong and that's what we look at. The economy is on great footing.\"Corporate earnings for the first quarter have been solid across the board, and the outlooks from companies for the rest of the year have been healthy too.\"The strength of the current economic recovery and rebound in corporate earnings suggest it may be premature to expect a near-term seasonal peak in equities,\" said strategists at UBS Global Wealth Management in a recent report. \"We recommend investors stay invested, diversify exposure, and keep control of their wealth plan.\"</p><p><blockquote>“首先，市场时机非常困难。我们喜欢股票，不会因为日历上写着五月就改变这一观点，”泽姆斯基说。“基本面依然强劲，这也是我们所关注的。经济处于良好的基础上。”第一季度的企业盈利全面稳健，今年剩余时间的企业前景也很健康。瑞银全球财富管理策略师在最近的一份报告中表示：“当前经济复苏的力度和企业盈利的反弹表明，预计股市近期将出现季节性见顶可能还为时过早。我们建议投资者保持投资，分散投资，并控制自己的财富计划。”</blockquote></p><p> It's also worth pointing out that selling in May and going away has been agood way to lose moneyfor the past few years. The S&amp;P 500 rose 12% between the start of May and end of October last year.And according to data compiled by LPL Financial, the S&amp;P 500 has averaged a 3.8% gain between May and October over the past 10 years. The only times the market went down in that period was in 2011 (an 8.1% drop) and in 2015, when the index fell a mere 0.3%.With that in mind, LPL Financial chief market strategist Ryan Detrick isn't advising that investors follow a \"sell in May\" strategy.\"With an accommodative Fed, fiscal and monetary policy, along with an economy that is opening faster than nearly anyone expected, we'd use any weakness as an opportunity to add to positions,\" Detrick said in a report.Still, one investing strategist is worried that the market's strong start to the year could lead to a summer swoon. After all, the S&amp;P 500 is now up nearly 12% in 2021 and is not far from a record high.\"The catalysts are strong for a sell in May strategy with the hot start to 2021,\" said Jeff Carbone, managing partner for Cornerstone Wealth, in an email. \"It may be time to take some profits from the strong growth sectors that have had big runs in 2021.\"\"There looks to be some runway left for growth and room for the markets to run but it may be a shorter runway and we are landing in LaGuardia, not Denver,\" he added, referring to two US airports known for their short and long landing strips.</p><p><blockquote>还值得指出的是，在过去几年里，五月份卖出然后离开一直是亏损的好方法。去年5月初至10月底，标普500上涨了12%。根据LPL Financial汇编的数据，过去10年5月至10月期间，标普500平均上涨3.8%。在此期间市场唯一一次下跌是在2011年（下跌8.1%）和2015年，当时该指数仅下跌0.3%。考虑到这一点，LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick并不建议投资者遵循“五月卖出”策略。德特里克在一份报告中表示：“随着美联储、财政和货币政策的宽松，以及经济开放速度快于几乎所有人的预期，我们会利用任何疲软作为增仓的机会。”尽管如此，一位投资策略师担心，今年市场的强劲开局可能会导致夏季低迷。毕竟，标普500目前在2021年上涨了近12%，距离历史新高不远了。基石财富管理合伙人杰夫·卡本（Jeff Carbone）在一封电子邮件中表示：“随着2021年的火热开局，5月份卖出策略的催化剂很强。”“可能是时候从2021年大幅上涨的强劲增长行业中获利了。”“看起来还有一些跑道可供增长和市场运行，但这可能是一条较短的跑道，我们降落在拉瓜迪亚机场，而不是丹佛市，”他补充道，他指的是两个以短跑道和长跑道而闻名的美国机场。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/03/investing/investing-stocks-may-strategy/index.html\">CNN</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/03/investing/investing-stocks-may-strategy/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191503043","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)It's the first trading day of May for thestock market. And guess what? Investors should ignore the dumb, antiquated saying about selling in May and going away.\nThe anachronistic idea goes something like this: An investor should lock in gains now and then mostly ignore the markets for the summer while sitting on a beach somewhere. And in 2021, it makes absolutely no sense.For one, it's not as if Corporate America and the economy go on summer break.Companies still announceearnings, make acquisitions and go public. TheFederal Reserve continues to meetand the government puts out data on the job market, retail sales, inflation and plenty of other things.With that in mind, investors need topay attention to the headlines— not what month it is.\"There is no proof of any kind that selling in May and going away will add value,\" said Paul Zemsky, chief investment officer of multi-asset strategies and solutions at Voya Investment Management.\n\"First of all, market timing is very hard. And we like stocks and are not going to change that opinion just because the calender says May,\" Zemsky said. \"The fundamentals remain strong and that's what we look at. The economy is on great footing.\"Corporate earnings for the first quarter have been solid across the board, and the outlooks from companies for the rest of the year have been healthy too.\"The strength of the current economic recovery and rebound in corporate earnings suggest it may be premature to expect a near-term seasonal peak in equities,\" said strategists at UBS Global Wealth Management in a recent report. \"We recommend investors stay invested, diversify exposure, and keep control of their wealth plan.\"\nIt's also worth pointing out that selling in May and going away has been agood way to lose moneyfor the past few years. The S&P 500 rose 12% between the start of May and end of October last year.And according to data compiled by LPL Financial, the S&P 500 has averaged a 3.8% gain between May and October over the past 10 years. The only times the market went down in that period was in 2011 (an 8.1% drop) and in 2015, when the index fell a mere 0.3%.With that in mind, LPL Financial chief market strategist Ryan Detrick isn't advising that investors follow a \"sell in May\" strategy.\"With an accommodative Fed, fiscal and monetary policy, along with an economy that is opening faster than nearly anyone expected, we'd use any weakness as an opportunity to add to positions,\" Detrick said in a report.Still, one investing strategist is worried that the market's strong start to the year could lead to a summer swoon. After all, the S&P 500 is now up nearly 12% in 2021 and is not far from a record high.\"The catalysts are strong for a sell in May strategy with the hot start to 2021,\" said Jeff Carbone, managing partner for Cornerstone Wealth, in an email. \"It may be time to take some profits from the strong growth sectors that have had big runs in 2021.\"\"There looks to be some runway left for growth and room for the markets to run but it may be a shorter runway and we are landing in LaGuardia, not Denver,\" he added, referring to two US airports known for their short and long landing strips.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106197531,"gmtCreate":1620091960823,"gmtModify":1634207892652,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Must because of conflict of interest...","listText":"Must because of conflict of interest...","text":"Must because of conflict of interest...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106197531","repostId":"1186579809","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379017113,"gmtCreate":1618637348832,"gmtModify":1634291602565,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon&nbsp;","listText":"To the moon&nbsp;","text":"To the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379017113","repostId":"1159260950","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379032021,"gmtCreate":1618635995963,"gmtModify":1634291613017,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Many people belives in TSM....","listText":"Many people belives in TSM....","text":"Many people belives in TSM....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379032021","repostId":"1155509413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155509413","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1618587639,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155509413?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 23:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>《华尔街日报》：台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155509413","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the Wall Street Journal reports.Taiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories  accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd .Taiwan","content":"<p>Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the&nbsp;Wall Street Journal reports.</p><p><blockquote>据《华尔街日报》报道，台湾的严重干旱可能会加剧持续的全球芯片危机，因为半导体生产商在整个制造过程中需要大量供水来清洁晶圆底座、蚀刻图案、抛光层和冲洗组件。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories (fabs) accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;TSM).</p><p><blockquote>台湾的半导体晶圆厂（FAB）占全球制造能力的三分之二。大部分产能属于合同芯片制造商<b>台积电有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TSM）。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan derived most of its water reserves from seasonal typhoons. However, a lack of storms last year had choked supplies, prompting the government to start water rationing for over a million businesses and residents.</p><p><blockquote>台湾的大部分水资源储备来自季节性台风。然而，去年风暴的缺乏导致供应中断，促使政府开始对100多万企业和居民实行水配给。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Samsung Electronics Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;SSNLF) had to&nbsp;temporarily shut down&nbsp;two of its Austin chip factories due to Texas weather anomalies. Auto chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Renesas Electronics Corp’s</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;RNECF) Japanese plant was&nbsp;hampered by&nbsp;the February earthquake and a March fire.</p><p><blockquote><b>三星电子有限公司</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）由于得克萨斯州天气异常，不得不暂时关闭其奥斯汀的两家芯片工厂。汽车芯片制造商<b>瑞萨电子公司</b>（场外交易代码：RNECF）日本工厂因二月地震和三月火灾而受到阻碍。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s three science industrial parks responsible for most of the chip-making facilities had to limit their water intake but were exempt from stoppages to date. However, it was affecting some of the companies.</p><p><blockquote>负责大部分芯片制造设施的台湾三个科学工业园区不得不限制用水量，但迄今为止并未停工。然而，它影响了一些公司。</blockquote></p><p> Alternative sources of water and acceleration of conservation would escalate the production costs after supply to one of its chip facilities were reduced, stated&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:&nbsp;MU), which had facilities in Taichung and Taoyuan.</p><p><blockquote>表示，在减少对其一个芯片工厂的供应后，替代水源和加速节约将增加生产成本<b>美光科技公司</b>（纳斯达克：MU），在台中和桃园设有设施。</blockquote></p><p> Hsinchu-based TSM and&nbsp;<b>United Microelectronics Corp</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;UMC) had secured alternate water supply sources. TSM was also trying to utilize groundwater from their construction sites.</p><p><blockquote>新竹TSM和<b>联合微电子公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：UMC）已获得替代供水来源。TSM还试图利用他们建筑工地的地下水。</blockquote></p><p> TSM did not estimate any significant impact on operations despite the tight water supply.</p><p><blockquote>尽管供水紧张，TSM估计不会对运营产生任何重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> However, Taiwan’s water crisis fueled by climate change could jeopardize global chip production due to their high production concentration in the island country, stated its officials and scholars.</p><p><blockquote>然而，台湾官员和学者表示，气候变化引发的台湾水危机可能会危及全球芯片生产，因为这些芯片的生产高度集中在这个岛国。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan introduced a drought disaster response agency in October.</p><p><blockquote>台湾在10月引入了干旱灾害响应机构。</blockquote></p><p> The government stopped the water supply for two days per week to some parts of the island from April. TSM aimed to reduce its water requirement per unit by 30% from 2010 levels by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>从4月份开始，政府每周停止向该岛部分地区供水两天。TSM的目标是到2030年将单位用水量比2010年的水平减少30%。</blockquote></p><p> TSM accounted for around 4.5% of Taiwan’s GDP in 2018, and chip sales accounted for 64% of Taiwan’s export growth on average over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote>2018年，TSM约占台湾GDP的4.5%，过去五年芯片销售额平均占台湾出口增长的64%。</blockquote></p><p> Germany has sought Taiwan’s assistance to secure chip supply for German car manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>德国已寻求台湾的帮助，以确保德国汽车制造商的芯片供应。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price action:</b>&nbsp;TSM shares traded flat at $118.35 on the last check Friday.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格走势：</b>周五最后一次检查时，TSM股价持平于118.35美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>《华尔街日报》：台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>《华尔街日报》：台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-16 23:40</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the&nbsp;Wall Street Journal reports.</p><p><blockquote>据《华尔街日报》报道，台湾的严重干旱可能会加剧持续的全球芯片危机，因为半导体生产商在整个制造过程中需要大量供水来清洁晶圆底座、蚀刻图案、抛光层和冲洗组件。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories (fabs) accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;TSM).</p><p><blockquote>台湾的半导体晶圆厂（FAB）占全球制造能力的三分之二。大部分产能属于合同芯片制造商<b>台积电有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TSM）。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan derived most of its water reserves from seasonal typhoons. However, a lack of storms last year had choked supplies, prompting the government to start water rationing for over a million businesses and residents.</p><p><blockquote>台湾的大部分水资源储备来自季节性台风。然而，去年风暴的缺乏导致供应中断，促使政府开始对100多万企业和居民实行水配给。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Samsung Electronics Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;SSNLF) had to&nbsp;temporarily shut down&nbsp;two of its Austin chip factories due to Texas weather anomalies. Auto chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Renesas Electronics Corp’s</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;RNECF) Japanese plant was&nbsp;hampered by&nbsp;the February earthquake and a March fire.</p><p><blockquote><b>三星电子有限公司</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）由于得克萨斯州天气异常，不得不暂时关闭其奥斯汀的两家芯片工厂。汽车芯片制造商<b>瑞萨电子公司</b>（场外交易代码：RNECF）日本工厂因二月地震和三月火灾而受到阻碍。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s three science industrial parks responsible for most of the chip-making facilities had to limit their water intake but were exempt from stoppages to date. However, it was affecting some of the companies.</p><p><blockquote>负责大部分芯片制造设施的台湾三个科学工业园区不得不限制用水量，但迄今为止并未停工。然而，它影响了一些公司。</blockquote></p><p> Alternative sources of water and acceleration of conservation would escalate the production costs after supply to one of its chip facilities were reduced, stated&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:&nbsp;MU), which had facilities in Taichung and Taoyuan.</p><p><blockquote>表示，在减少对其一个芯片工厂的供应后，替代水源和加速节约将增加生产成本<b>美光科技公司</b>（纳斯达克：MU），在台中和桃园设有设施。</blockquote></p><p> Hsinchu-based TSM and&nbsp;<b>United Microelectronics Corp</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;UMC) had secured alternate water supply sources. TSM was also trying to utilize groundwater from their construction sites.</p><p><blockquote>新竹TSM和<b>联合微电子公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：UMC）已获得替代供水来源。TSM还试图利用他们建筑工地的地下水。</blockquote></p><p> TSM did not estimate any significant impact on operations despite the tight water supply.</p><p><blockquote>尽管供水紧张，TSM估计不会对运营产生任何重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> However, Taiwan’s water crisis fueled by climate change could jeopardize global chip production due to their high production concentration in the island country, stated its officials and scholars.</p><p><blockquote>然而，台湾官员和学者表示，气候变化引发的台湾水危机可能会危及全球芯片生产，因为这些芯片的生产高度集中在这个岛国。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan introduced a drought disaster response agency in October.</p><p><blockquote>台湾在10月引入了干旱灾害响应机构。</blockquote></p><p> The government stopped the water supply for two days per week to some parts of the island from April. TSM aimed to reduce its water requirement per unit by 30% from 2010 levels by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>从4月份开始，政府每周停止向该岛部分地区供水两天。TSM的目标是到2030年将单位用水量比2010年的水平减少30%。</blockquote></p><p> TSM accounted for around 4.5% of Taiwan’s GDP in 2018, and chip sales accounted for 64% of Taiwan’s export growth on average over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote>2018年，TSM约占台湾GDP的4.5%，过去五年芯片销售额平均占台湾出口增长的64%。</blockquote></p><p> Germany has sought Taiwan’s assistance to secure chip supply for German car manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>德国已寻求台湾的帮助，以确保德国汽车制造商的芯片供应。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price action:</b>&nbsp;TSM shares traded flat at $118.35 on the last check Friday.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格走势：</b>周五最后一次检查时，TSM股价持平于118.35美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","MU":"美光科技"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155509413","content_text":"Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the Wall Street Journal reports.\nTaiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories (fabs) accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (NYSE: TSM).\nTaiwan derived most of its water reserves from seasonal typhoons. However, a lack of storms last year had choked supplies, prompting the government to start water rationing for over a million businesses and residents.\nSamsung Electronics Co Ltd (OTC: SSNLF) had to temporarily shut down two of its Austin chip factories due to Texas weather anomalies. Auto chip manufacturer Renesas Electronics Corp’s (OTC: RNECF) Japanese plant was hampered by the February earthquake and a March fire.\nTaiwan’s three science industrial parks responsible for most of the chip-making facilities had to limit their water intake but were exempt from stoppages to date. However, it was affecting some of the companies.\nAlternative sources of water and acceleration of conservation would escalate the production costs after supply to one of its chip facilities were reduced, stated Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ: MU), which had facilities in Taichung and Taoyuan.\nHsinchu-based TSM and United Microelectronics Corp (NYSE: UMC) had secured alternate water supply sources. TSM was also trying to utilize groundwater from their construction sites.\nTSM did not estimate any significant impact on operations despite the tight water supply.\nHowever, Taiwan’s water crisis fueled by climate change could jeopardize global chip production due to their high production concentration in the island country, stated its officials and scholars.\nTaiwan introduced a drought disaster response agency in October.\nThe government stopped the water supply for two days per week to some parts of the island from April. TSM aimed to reduce its water requirement per unit by 30% from 2010 levels by 2030.\nTSM accounted for around 4.5% of Taiwan’s GDP in 2018, and chip sales accounted for 64% of Taiwan’s export growth on average over the past five years.\nGermany has sought Taiwan’s assistance to secure chip supply for German car manufacturers.\nPrice action: TSM shares traded flat at $118.35 on the last check Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9,"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347284496,"gmtCreate":1618496991615,"gmtModify":1631888643336,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">$Interactive Brokers(IBKR)$</a>go go go","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">$Interactive Brokers(IBKR)$</a>go go go","text":"$Interactive Brokers(IBKR)$go go go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/194d133db7250b658cbf8a2c329bb0f7","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347284496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342281465,"gmtCreate":1618221848657,"gmtModify":1631888643340,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">$Interactive Brokers(IBKR)$</a>go go go","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">$Interactive Brokers(IBKR)$</a>go go go","text":"$Interactive Brokers(IBKR)$go go go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51acc4a1c354c3747654e5bb00573421","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342281465","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340889230,"gmtCreate":1617371870320,"gmtModify":1634521203121,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Soon .... But it go up again//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3567831131847990\">@Vince191</a>: Hopefully not..","listText":"Soon .... But it go up again//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3567831131847990\">@Vince191</a>: Hopefully not..","text":"Soon .... But it go up again//@Vince191: Hopefully not..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340889230","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326865664,"gmtCreate":1615615415558,"gmtModify":1703491658291,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00941\">$China Mobile(00941)$</a>getting lower[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00941\">$China Mobile(00941)$</a>getting lower[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"$China Mobile(00941)$getting lower[笑哭]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/278519adc704bd26e388546d6eb78c9c","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326865664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328742649,"gmtCreate":1615561699381,"gmtModify":1703490997202,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328742649","repostId":"1119607279","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1119607279","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615560514,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119607279?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-12 22:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Some “meme” stocks rose<blockquote>部分“模因”股票上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119607279","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Koss up more than 25%,Express up more than 14%,GameStop up more than 8%.","content":"<p>Koss up more than 25%,Express up more than 14%,GameStop up more than 8%.</p><p><blockquote>科斯涨超25%，运通涨超14%，游戏驿站涨超8%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e665baba538eac8d8d828f56455a4116\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Some “meme” stocks rose<blockquote>部分“模因”股票上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSome “meme” stocks rose<blockquote>部分“模因”股票上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-12 22:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Koss up more than 25%,Express up more than 14%,GameStop up more than 8%.</p><p><blockquote>科斯涨超25%，运通涨超14%，游戏驿站涨超8%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e665baba538eac8d8d828f56455a4116\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EXPR":"Express, Inc.","KOSS":"高斯电子","GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119607279","content_text":"Koss up more than 25%,Express up more than 14%,GameStop up more than 8%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"KOSS":0.9,"EXPR":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":379032021,"gmtCreate":1618635995963,"gmtModify":1634291613017,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Many people belives in TSM....","listText":"Many people belives in TSM....","text":"Many people belives in TSM....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379032021","repostId":"1155509413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155509413","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1618587639,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155509413?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 23:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>《华尔街日报》：台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155509413","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the Wall Street Journal reports.Taiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories  accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd .Taiwan","content":"<p>Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the&nbsp;Wall Street Journal reports.</p><p><blockquote>据《华尔街日报》报道，台湾的严重干旱可能会加剧持续的全球芯片危机，因为半导体生产商在整个制造过程中需要大量供水来清洁晶圆底座、蚀刻图案、抛光层和冲洗组件。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories (fabs) accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;TSM).</p><p><blockquote>台湾的半导体晶圆厂（FAB）占全球制造能力的三分之二。大部分产能属于合同芯片制造商<b>台积电有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TSM）。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan derived most of its water reserves from seasonal typhoons. However, a lack of storms last year had choked supplies, prompting the government to start water rationing for over a million businesses and residents.</p><p><blockquote>台湾的大部分水资源储备来自季节性台风。然而，去年风暴的缺乏导致供应中断，促使政府开始对100多万企业和居民实行水配给。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Samsung Electronics Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;SSNLF) had to&nbsp;temporarily shut down&nbsp;two of its Austin chip factories due to Texas weather anomalies. Auto chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Renesas Electronics Corp’s</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;RNECF) Japanese plant was&nbsp;hampered by&nbsp;the February earthquake and a March fire.</p><p><blockquote><b>三星电子有限公司</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）由于得克萨斯州天气异常，不得不暂时关闭其奥斯汀的两家芯片工厂。汽车芯片制造商<b>瑞萨电子公司</b>（场外交易代码：RNECF）日本工厂因二月地震和三月火灾而受到阻碍。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s three science industrial parks responsible for most of the chip-making facilities had to limit their water intake but were exempt from stoppages to date. However, it was affecting some of the companies.</p><p><blockquote>负责大部分芯片制造设施的台湾三个科学工业园区不得不限制用水量，但迄今为止并未停工。然而，它影响了一些公司。</blockquote></p><p> Alternative sources of water and acceleration of conservation would escalate the production costs after supply to one of its chip facilities were reduced, stated&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:&nbsp;MU), which had facilities in Taichung and Taoyuan.</p><p><blockquote>表示，在减少对其一个芯片工厂的供应后，替代水源和加速节约将增加生产成本<b>美光科技公司</b>（纳斯达克：MU），在台中和桃园设有设施。</blockquote></p><p> Hsinchu-based TSM and&nbsp;<b>United Microelectronics Corp</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;UMC) had secured alternate water supply sources. TSM was also trying to utilize groundwater from their construction sites.</p><p><blockquote>新竹TSM和<b>联合微电子公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：UMC）已获得替代供水来源。TSM还试图利用他们建筑工地的地下水。</blockquote></p><p> TSM did not estimate any significant impact on operations despite the tight water supply.</p><p><blockquote>尽管供水紧张，TSM估计不会对运营产生任何重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> However, Taiwan’s water crisis fueled by climate change could jeopardize global chip production due to their high production concentration in the island country, stated its officials and scholars.</p><p><blockquote>然而，台湾官员和学者表示，气候变化引发的台湾水危机可能会危及全球芯片生产，因为这些芯片的生产高度集中在这个岛国。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan introduced a drought disaster response agency in October.</p><p><blockquote>台湾在10月引入了干旱灾害响应机构。</blockquote></p><p> The government stopped the water supply for two days per week to some parts of the island from April. TSM aimed to reduce its water requirement per unit by 30% from 2010 levels by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>从4月份开始，政府每周停止向该岛部分地区供水两天。TSM的目标是到2030年将单位用水量比2010年的水平减少30%。</blockquote></p><p> TSM accounted for around 4.5% of Taiwan’s GDP in 2018, and chip sales accounted for 64% of Taiwan’s export growth on average over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote>2018年，TSM约占台湾GDP的4.5%，过去五年芯片销售额平均占台湾出口增长的64%。</blockquote></p><p> Germany has sought Taiwan’s assistance to secure chip supply for German car manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>德国已寻求台湾的帮助，以确保德国汽车制造商的芯片供应。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price action:</b>&nbsp;TSM shares traded flat at $118.35 on the last check Friday.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格走势：</b>周五最后一次检查时，TSM股价持平于118.35美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>《华尔街日报》：台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>《华尔街日报》：台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-16 23:40</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the&nbsp;Wall Street Journal reports.</p><p><blockquote>据《华尔街日报》报道，台湾的严重干旱可能会加剧持续的全球芯片危机，因为半导体生产商在整个制造过程中需要大量供水来清洁晶圆底座、蚀刻图案、抛光层和冲洗组件。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories (fabs) accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;TSM).</p><p><blockquote>台湾的半导体晶圆厂（FAB）占全球制造能力的三分之二。大部分产能属于合同芯片制造商<b>台积电有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TSM）。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan derived most of its water reserves from seasonal typhoons. However, a lack of storms last year had choked supplies, prompting the government to start water rationing for over a million businesses and residents.</p><p><blockquote>台湾的大部分水资源储备来自季节性台风。然而，去年风暴的缺乏导致供应中断，促使政府开始对100多万企业和居民实行水配给。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Samsung Electronics Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;SSNLF) had to&nbsp;temporarily shut down&nbsp;two of its Austin chip factories due to Texas weather anomalies. Auto chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Renesas Electronics Corp’s</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;RNECF) Japanese plant was&nbsp;hampered by&nbsp;the February earthquake and a March fire.</p><p><blockquote><b>三星电子有限公司</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）由于得克萨斯州天气异常，不得不暂时关闭其奥斯汀的两家芯片工厂。汽车芯片制造商<b>瑞萨电子公司</b>（场外交易代码：RNECF）日本工厂因二月地震和三月火灾而受到阻碍。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s three science industrial parks responsible for most of the chip-making facilities had to limit their water intake but were exempt from stoppages to date. However, it was affecting some of the companies.</p><p><blockquote>负责大部分芯片制造设施的台湾三个科学工业园区不得不限制用水量，但迄今为止并未停工。然而，它影响了一些公司。</blockquote></p><p> Alternative sources of water and acceleration of conservation would escalate the production costs after supply to one of its chip facilities were reduced, stated&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:&nbsp;MU), which had facilities in Taichung and Taoyuan.</p><p><blockquote>表示，在减少对其一个芯片工厂的供应后，替代水源和加速节约将增加生产成本<b>美光科技公司</b>（纳斯达克：MU），在台中和桃园设有设施。</blockquote></p><p> Hsinchu-based TSM and&nbsp;<b>United Microelectronics Corp</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;UMC) had secured alternate water supply sources. TSM was also trying to utilize groundwater from their construction sites.</p><p><blockquote>新竹TSM和<b>联合微电子公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：UMC）已获得替代供水来源。TSM还试图利用他们建筑工地的地下水。</blockquote></p><p> TSM did not estimate any significant impact on operations despite the tight water supply.</p><p><blockquote>尽管供水紧张，TSM估计不会对运营产生任何重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> However, Taiwan’s water crisis fueled by climate change could jeopardize global chip production due to their high production concentration in the island country, stated its officials and scholars.</p><p><blockquote>然而，台湾官员和学者表示，气候变化引发的台湾水危机可能会危及全球芯片生产，因为这些芯片的生产高度集中在这个岛国。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan introduced a drought disaster response agency in October.</p><p><blockquote>台湾在10月引入了干旱灾害响应机构。</blockquote></p><p> The government stopped the water supply for two days per week to some parts of the island from April. TSM aimed to reduce its water requirement per unit by 30% from 2010 levels by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>从4月份开始，政府每周停止向该岛部分地区供水两天。TSM的目标是到2030年将单位用水量比2010年的水平减少30%。</blockquote></p><p> TSM accounted for around 4.5% of Taiwan’s GDP in 2018, and chip sales accounted for 64% of Taiwan’s export growth on average over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote>2018年，TSM约占台湾GDP的4.5%，过去五年芯片销售额平均占台湾出口增长的64%。</blockquote></p><p> Germany has sought Taiwan’s assistance to secure chip supply for German car manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>德国已寻求台湾的帮助，以确保德国汽车制造商的芯片供应。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price action:</b>&nbsp;TSM shares traded flat at $118.35 on the last check Friday.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格走势：</b>周五最后一次检查时，TSM股价持平于118.35美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","MU":"美光科技"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155509413","content_text":"Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the Wall Street Journal reports.\nTaiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories (fabs) accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (NYSE: TSM).\nTaiwan derived most of its water reserves from seasonal typhoons. However, a lack of storms last year had choked supplies, prompting the government to start water rationing for over a million businesses and residents.\nSamsung Electronics Co Ltd (OTC: SSNLF) had to temporarily shut down two of its Austin chip factories due to Texas weather anomalies. Auto chip manufacturer Renesas Electronics Corp’s (OTC: RNECF) Japanese plant was hampered by the February earthquake and a March fire.\nTaiwan’s three science industrial parks responsible for most of the chip-making facilities had to limit their water intake but were exempt from stoppages to date. However, it was affecting some of the companies.\nAlternative sources of water and acceleration of conservation would escalate the production costs after supply to one of its chip facilities were reduced, stated Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ: MU), which had facilities in Taichung and Taoyuan.\nHsinchu-based TSM and United Microelectronics Corp (NYSE: UMC) had secured alternate water supply sources. TSM was also trying to utilize groundwater from their construction sites.\nTSM did not estimate any significant impact on operations despite the tight water supply.\nHowever, Taiwan’s water crisis fueled by climate change could jeopardize global chip production due to their high production concentration in the island country, stated its officials and scholars.\nTaiwan introduced a drought disaster response agency in October.\nThe government stopped the water supply for two days per week to some parts of the island from April. TSM aimed to reduce its water requirement per unit by 30% from 2010 levels by 2030.\nTSM accounted for around 4.5% of Taiwan’s GDP in 2018, and chip sales accounted for 64% of Taiwan’s export growth on average over the past five years.\nGermany has sought Taiwan’s assistance to secure chip supply for German car manufacturers.\nPrice action: TSM shares traded flat at $118.35 on the last check Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9,"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326865664,"gmtCreate":1615615415558,"gmtModify":1703491658291,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00941\">$China Mobile(00941)$</a>getting lower[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00941\">$China Mobile(00941)$</a>getting lower[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"$China Mobile(00941)$getting lower[笑哭]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/278519adc704bd26e388546d6eb78c9c","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326865664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":106139486,"gmtCreate":1620092074545,"gmtModify":1631887102801,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWKS\">$Skyworks Solutions(SWKS)$</a>sad...Bought at it's peak....Silly me&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWKS\">$Skyworks Solutions(SWKS)$</a>sad...Bought at it's peak....Silly me&nbsp;","text":"$Skyworks Solutions(SWKS)$sad...Bought at it's peak....Silly me","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/422e46912bc7bf6043e3efc5edc4a621","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106139486","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133210992,"gmtCreate":1621751573216,"gmtModify":1634186769461,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133210992","repostId":"1153943475","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133235286,"gmtCreate":1621751384345,"gmtModify":1634186772102,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Too crazy, it's like a dream&nbsp;","listText":"Too crazy, it's like a dream&nbsp;","text":"Too crazy, it's like a dream","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133235286","repostId":"2137907575","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167164184,"gmtCreate":1624252947048,"gmtModify":1634008828943,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please give me many likes and comments!","listText":"Please give me many likes and comments!","text":"Please give me many likes and comments!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167164184","repostId":"2145208803","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328742649,"gmtCreate":1615561699381,"gmtModify":1703490997202,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328742649","repostId":"1119607279","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1119607279","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615560514,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119607279?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-12 22:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Some “meme” stocks rose<blockquote>部分“模因”股票上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119607279","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Koss up more than 25%,Express up more than 14%,GameStop up more than 8%.","content":"<p>Koss up more than 25%,Express up more than 14%,GameStop up more than 8%.</p><p><blockquote>科斯涨超25%，运通涨超14%，游戏驿站涨超8%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e665baba538eac8d8d828f56455a4116\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Some “meme” stocks rose<blockquote>部分“模因”股票上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSome “meme” stocks rose<blockquote>部分“模因”股票上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-12 22:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Koss up more than 25%,Express up more than 14%,GameStop up more than 8%.</p><p><blockquote>科斯涨超25%，运通涨超14%，游戏驿站涨超8%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e665baba538eac8d8d828f56455a4116\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EXPR":"Express, Inc.","KOSS":"高斯电子","GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119607279","content_text":"Koss up more than 25%,Express up more than 14%,GameStop up more than 8%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"KOSS":0.9,"EXPR":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115824566,"gmtCreate":1622975205955,"gmtModify":1634096457817,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Better not buy","listText":"Better not buy","text":"Better not buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115824566","repostId":"1120164826","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120164826","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622951745,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120164826?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-06 11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120164826","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was publishe","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在Seeking Alpha上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group的股价已下跌约30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整EBITDA指引疲弱（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的预期市盈率仍接近100倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，（ZG）已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向看涨期权iHome业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与ZG的抵押贷款业务融合得很好。部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG的估值似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一言以蔽之——可怜。此外，Q2指引疲弱，公司计划今年再增聘2000名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理由</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com以了解我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家的当前“Zestimate”是多少的人。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量方面排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与Realtor.com争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow集团在房地产网站市场（至少从独立访问量指标来看）的份额是其3倍以上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一页然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的对比。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的SimilarWeb评级中肯定有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们就可以认为rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大并且是市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的...观点和活动需要转化为利润，而这正是Zillow集团与其相当高的估值相比所苦苦挣扎的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow于5月4日发布了第一季度EPS报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP每股净利润为0.20美元，比预期高出0.13美元。收入为12.2亿美元，超出1.2亿美元，同比增长8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序流量强劲，第一季度平均每月用户2.21亿（同比增长15%），访问量达25亿次（同比增长19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度最有趣的细分市场是iHome（或ZG评级“Zillow提供的”），因为它约占收入的57%，并且是Zillow指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）不到平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍被认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向iHome几乎损害了公司的首要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着Zillow的广告收入面临更大压力，这些收入通常来自其iHome部门目前正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率只有4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导调整后EBITDA总额（1.28亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>将大幅下降</b>第一季度调整后EBITDA总额为1.81亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意，第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在SEC 10-Q文件中找到）为259,346,000股（同比增长23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股数量将继续增长至约2.655亿股（基于上述指导）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后的EBITDA下降，而完全稀释的股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近有所调整（请注意，自我3月份的Seeking Alpha文章以来，该股已下跌约30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到疲软的第二季度指引，就Zillow的增长前景（或非增长……）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较。此外，我不清楚改善公司未来微薄利润率的催化剂是什么。考虑到这一点尤其如此<b>Zillow计划今年再增聘2000名员工</b>，员工人数增加约40%。在我看来，在提高利润率方面，员工人数的增长将是一个重大阻力。也就是说，Zillow在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向iHome也意味着ZG现在面临更多的宏观层面风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买Zillow Group的风险是定价接近完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于ZG的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价已经达到了完美，而且自从那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了30%，现在我将简单地看涨期权ZG一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，Zillow的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成了5.51亿美元的股票发行后，该公司在本季度末拥有47亿美元现金（高于2020年底的39亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为22.59亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末已发行的2.655亿股稀释后股票，该公司估计每股净现金为9.19美元。Zillow可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接投资房地产市场而面临的较高风险。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可能会随时发生变化，并可能导致ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结和结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Zillow的第一季度报告确实比环比有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其表现出的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎根本不正常。尽管房地产市场火热且高度升值，但第二季度调整后EBITDA仍环比下降...嗯，我只是无法理解目前的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到约50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对其感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以ZG的五年价格图表结束，并指出我的50美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来的每股收益报告问题并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前110美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 11:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在Seeking Alpha上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group的股价已下跌约30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整EBITDA指引疲弱（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的预期市盈率仍接近100倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，（ZG）已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向看涨期权iHome业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与ZG的抵押贷款业务融合得很好。部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG的估值似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一言以蔽之——可怜。此外，Q2指引疲弱，公司计划今年再增聘2000名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理由</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com以了解我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家的当前“Zestimate”是多少的人。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量方面排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与Realtor.com争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow集团在房地产网站市场（至少从独立访问量指标来看）的份额是其3倍以上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一页然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的对比。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的SimilarWeb评级中肯定有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们就可以认为rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大并且是市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的...观点和活动需要转化为利润，而这正是Zillow集团与其相当高的估值相比所苦苦挣扎的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow于5月4日发布了第一季度EPS报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP每股净利润为0.20美元，比预期高出0.13美元。收入为12.2亿美元，超出1.2亿美元，同比增长8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序流量强劲，第一季度平均每月用户2.21亿（同比增长15%），访问量达25亿次（同比增长19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度最有趣的细分市场是iHome（或ZG评级“Zillow提供的”），因为它约占收入的57%，并且是Zillow指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）不到平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍被认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向iHome几乎损害了公司的首要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着Zillow的广告收入面临更大压力，这些收入通常来自其iHome部门目前正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率只有4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导调整后EBITDA总额（1.28亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>将大幅下降</b>第一季度调整后EBITDA总额为1.81亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意，第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在SEC 10-Q文件中找到）为259,346,000股（同比增长23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股数量将继续增长至约2.655亿股（基于上述指导）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后的EBITDA下降，而完全稀释的股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近有所调整（请注意，自我3月份的Seeking Alpha文章以来，该股已下跌约30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到疲软的第二季度指引，就Zillow的增长前景（或非增长……）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较。此外，我不清楚改善公司未来微薄利润率的催化剂是什么。考虑到这一点尤其如此<b>Zillow计划今年再增聘2000名员工</b>，员工人数增加约40%。在我看来，在提高利润率方面，员工人数的增长将是一个重大阻力。也就是说，Zillow在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向iHome也意味着ZG现在面临更多的宏观层面风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买Zillow Group的风险是定价接近完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于ZG的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价已经达到了完美，而且自从那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了30%，现在我将简单地看涨期权ZG一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，Zillow的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成了5.51亿美元的股票发行后，该公司在本季度末拥有47亿美元现金（高于2020年底的39亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为22.59亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末已发行的2.655亿股稀释后股票，该公司估计每股净现金为9.19美元。Zillow可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接投资房地产市场而面临的较高风险。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可能会随时发生变化，并可能导致ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结和结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Zillow的第一季度报告确实比环比有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其表现出的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎根本不正常。尽管房地产市场火热且高度升值，但第二季度调整后EBITDA仍环比下降...嗯，我只是无法理解目前的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到约50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对其感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以ZG的五年价格图表结束，并指出我的50美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来的每股收益报告问题并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前110美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120164826","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.\nHowever, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.\nThat is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.\nYet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.\n\nPhoto by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe Zillow Group (ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.\nInvestment Rationale\nLike many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.\nIndeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:\nSource:Statista\nBut of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:\nSource:SimilarWeb.com\nWhen it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.\nHowever, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.\nQ1 Earnings\nZillow released its Q1 EPS report on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).\nThe most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.\nHowever, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:\nSource: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report\nAs can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?\nGoing Forward\nThe chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:\nSource: Zillow's Q1 EPS report\nAt the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that will be down considerably from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.\nIn addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).\nValuation\nSo we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.\nYet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March Zillow: Take Profits), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.\nThat is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.\nMeantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.\nRisks\nThe risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.\nThe goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.\nThat compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.\nSummary & Conclusion\nWhile Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.\nI will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.\nData byYCharts","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"Z":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116522443,"gmtCreate":1622813126282,"gmtModify":1634097772694,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mean reverting always win","listText":"Mean reverting always win","text":"Mean reverting always win","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116522443","repostId":"1110641032","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106197531,"gmtCreate":1620091960823,"gmtModify":1634207892652,"author":{"id":"3561947035715440","authorId":"3561947035715440","name":"SY2009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6559daf77d9933af0ebc32aa292ab79","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561947035715440","idStr":"3561947035715440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Must because of conflict of interest...","listText":"Must because of conflict of interest...","text":"Must because of conflict of interest...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106197531","repostId":"1186579809","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}