Yangsirisme的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Yangsirisme

Yangsirisme

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IP属地：江西

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06-22

花旗就是**，降息你咋把目标价调整到3500

美联储转鹰、华尔街纷纷投降，花旗成“最后的倔强”：坚持10月重启降息

06-22

用你说吗？人家已经1100多了，就是说废话的机构

花旗看高美光目标价至1200美元，Q3盈利同比增速预期上调至1092%

06-22

$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 造孽

06-18

$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 造孽啊，明明有科技不买去买个没有底的黄金，抽死自己

06-16

也没见闪迪跌啊

Citrini：AMD、苹果双双押注闪存替代DRAM，内存成本或直降55倍

06-10

带杠杆的不是人玩的，极端情况下，主力只要拉你一下你就爆一下，而无力加仓，哪怕最后方向对了跟你无关了😔

06-10

$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 请告诉我这是最后一跌好吗？12号以后就买不了了

06-09

赶紧来份协议吧，世界杯之前

特朗普称美伊谈判进入“最后关头”

06-05

涨你大头鬼，快点停战降息

特朗普：就业报告非常强劲，股市理应上涨，经济增长并不意味着通胀

06-05

$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 不好玩一点也不好玩，去年做空就降息，今年做多给加息，数据可能有这么好吗？光meta就裁员几万，ai进展人会被替代多少

06-05

假数据，ai裁员的人呢

美国5月非农就业增加17.2万人，预期增加8.5万人，5月失业率4.3%

06-04

$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 日了，怎么比纽约金显示的少涨那么多

06-02

拜拜了您嘞，离开的报个到

关于存量投资者在中国境内（内地）服务合规调整的通知

05-29

$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 守得云开见月明

05-29

五一后买的已经翻倍可惜瞎折腾把筹码搞丢了

“两倍海力士”已成全球老大，全球杠杆/反向“单票ETF”规模1个半月翻倍

05-29

$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$

05-29

$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$

05-28

$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 纪念一下，冲动满仓被强平永远回不来的4396，没钱买了无奈

05-25

$黄金2608(GC2608)$ 快下来4600让我上车

05-22

海力士比闪迪好多了，低估多了撤出来买闪迪吗

边涨边撤！全球投资者大幅撤离韩国股市，5月已流出220亿

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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17:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储转鹰、华尔街纷纷投降，花旗成“最后的倔强”：坚持10月重启降息","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2645407520","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"花旗认为，美联储下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。其核心逻辑在于：油价急速下跌正消除通胀上行风险，失业金人数上升预示劳动力市场季节性走弱，且核心PCE的强势受股价推升，属于各类通胀指标中的“异常值”，不反映广义消费价格压力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>花旗认为，美联储下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。其核心逻辑在于：油价急速下跌正消除通胀上行风险，失业金人数上升预示劳动力市场季节性走弱，且核心PCE的强势受股价推升，属于各类通胀指标中的“异常值”，不反映广义消费价格压力。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在美联储出人意料地大幅转鹰、华尔街主流机构相继撤回宽松预期之际，花旗集团坚持逆势判断，认为年内降息依然是大概率事件，并将基准情景锁定为10月重启宽松周期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月FOMC会议上，18名联储官员中有9人的利率点阵图指向今年加息，远超市场和分析师预期。主席沃什在会后声明中正式删除&#34;宽松偏向&#34;措辞，并拒绝提供任何前瞻指引。受此冲击，掉期市场迅速将首次加息预期从2027年3月提前至今年10月，市场目前已为今年剩余时间定价约37个基点的加息幅度，2年期美债收益率会后创下3月以来最大单日涨幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">面对这一鹰派冲击，华尔街机构纷纷改变立场。德意志银行在最新研报中正式撤回宽松预测，预计美联储将于9月和12月各加息一次、累计50个基点，将利率推高至4.1%，并警告7月便可能提前采取行动；高盛副董事长、前达拉斯联储主席Rob Kaplan则警告，若通胀数据持续顽固，美联储最早秋季重启加息，且极可能以连续2至3次的系列行动出现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>花旗Andrew Hollenhorst团队则维持与市场截然相反的基准预测：下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。</strong>花旗的核心论点在于：油价急剧下跌正在消除通胀的主要上行风险，初请失业金人数趋势性上升正复制2024年和2025年的季节性走弱模式，而核心PCE在各类通胀指标中日益显现为&#34;异常值&#34;，其强势更多反映股价上涨而非广义消费价格压力。</p><h2 id=\"430d6906\">花旗的逻辑之一：油价下行正在消除通胀上行风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗坚持降息预测的第一个核心论点，来自油价的急速下跌。该行认为，<strong>油价走低将带动汽油价格下行，从而消除此前通胀上行的主要来源。</strong>基于市场的通胀预期指标已随油价同步回落，10年期通胀盈亏平衡率已降至冲突爆发前的低点水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗指出，若联储官员有更充裕的时间消化这一能源价格的最新变化，本次FOMC会议的鹰派程度将会明显降低。该行认为，随着油价下行效果逐步在数据中体现，未来数月通胀数据将趋于温和，有助于推动更多联储官员在9月前转向更为鸽派的立场，并为年底前降息创造条件。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/145ed3577bad64f1f3fafc29756e7824\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"445\"/></p><h2 id=\"f5ce59ca\">花旗的逻辑之二：劳动力市场走弱信号复制往年季节性规律</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗的第二个核心论点，聚焦于劳动力市场正在浮现的早期走弱信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">初请失业金人数和持续领取失业金人数均已连续数周呈上升趋势。花旗指出，这一模式在2024年和2025年均曾出现，随后均引发了一系列偏弱的月度就业报告和失业率上升，<strong>而失业率上升正是花旗预期美联储年内降息的关键驱动力。</strong>该行预计，初请失业金人数（6月20日当周）将维持在22.4万附近，持续领取失业金人数小幅增至181.3万，4周移动平均仍将继续走高。当前绝对水平虽仍不高，但若上升趋势持续，将与劳动力市场逐步走弱的判断相符。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就整体经济而言，花旗追踪的二季度GDP增速预测为2.5%。消费方面，5月零售销售控制组数据环比增长0.7%，韧性仍在，但实际可支配收入增长已放缓至近乎零增长，储蓄率维持低位，暗示支出增速下行风险正在积聚。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8022e8ffcf8fdd63935db0bd1297e88f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"429\"/></p><h2 id=\"pce\">花旗的逻辑之三：核心PCE是&#34;异常值&#34;，通胀画面并不统一</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗逆势坚守的第三个逻辑支柱，在于对核心PCE数据本身的质疑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">5月核心CPI月率仅录得0.21%，呈现温和；<strong>但花旗预计，即将公布的5月核心PCE月率将高达0.37%，两者之间已出现显著背离。</strong>花旗认为，核心PCE当前偏强的原因具有特殊性：该指标高度受AI相关价格影响，且直接受股价上涨推升——5月PPI数据显示投资组合管理费用月率大涨4.8%，主要反映股价从4月初低点到5月初高位的回升，而非消费端的真实价格压力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de4b0e811a52a84b5662f999ae1a5c2a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从横向比较来看，达拉斯联储修剪均值PCE、旧金山联储周期性PCE、克利夫兰联储中位数PCE以及核心CPI，均显示出比核心PCE更为温和的通胀走势。花旗认为，核心PCE正日益成为各类通胀指标中的&#34;异常值&#34;，而非反映广义消费价格压力的可靠信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗预计，随着AI相关价格在下半年趋于横盘，核心PCE与核心CPI之间的差距将逐步收窄，通胀整体走势将更趋向于支持政策宽松。在其预测路径下，核心PCE同比增速预计将从当前的3.3%附近逐步回落，至2027年年中前后降至2.1%-2.2%区间。</p><h2 id=\"ab66a449\">华尔街&#34;投降&#34;：德银预测两次加息，高盛示警连环收紧</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，面对沃什的鹰派冲击，华尔街机构纷纷改变立场。德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti团队在研报中明确，此前之所以迟迟未上调预测，主要源于两大不确定性：伊朗局势带来的经济前景高度不确定性，以及新任联储主席沃什的货币政策反应函数尚不清晰。6月FOMC会议的结果一举打消了这两大顾虑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德银大幅上调通胀预测，将2026年底和2027年核心PCE预期分别调升至3.2%和2.5%，并将基准预测更新为：美联储将于9月和12月各加息一次、累计50个基点，利率升至4.1%；此后2027年全年按兵不动，2028年上半年才开始降息。德银同时警告鹰派风险：若沃什已公开承诺&#34;修复&#34;价格稳定问题而委员会未及时行动，其公信力将受到考验——这意味着7月便可能提前加息，且若要完全撤回去年连续降息所产生的宽松效果，全年加息幅度或需扩大至75个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛副董事长Rob Kaplan则明确表示，若从现在到9月通胀数据仍未降温，秋季加息将是&#34;明智之举&#34;。他特别强调，美联储的政策调整极少以单次孤立行动出现，利率变动通常以2至3次系列行动展开：&#34;如果9月采取行动，你需要做好准备，可能还会有一到两次加息。&#34;曾历经多个货币政策周期的Kaplan基于历史经验的警告，为市场敲响了警钟。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储转鹰、华尔街纷纷投降，花旗成“最后的倔强”：坚持10月重启降息</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储转鹰、华尔街纷纷投降，花旗成“最后的倔强”：坚持10月重启降息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-22 17:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>花旗认为，美联储下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。其核心逻辑在于：油价急速下跌正消除通胀上行风险，失业金人数上升预示劳动力市场季节性走弱，且核心PCE的强势受股价推升，属于各类通胀指标中的“异常值”，不反映广义消费价格压力。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在美联储出人意料地大幅转鹰、华尔街主流机构相继撤回宽松预期之际，花旗集团坚持逆势判断，认为年内降息依然是大概率事件，并将基准情景锁定为10月重启宽松周期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月FOMC会议上，18名联储官员中有9人的利率点阵图指向今年加息，远超市场和分析师预期。主席沃什在会后声明中正式删除&#34;宽松偏向&#34;措辞，并拒绝提供任何前瞻指引。受此冲击，掉期市场迅速将首次加息预期从2027年3月提前至今年10月，市场目前已为今年剩余时间定价约37个基点的加息幅度，2年期美债收益率会后创下3月以来最大单日涨幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">面对这一鹰派冲击，华尔街机构纷纷改变立场。德意志银行在最新研报中正式撤回宽松预测，预计美联储将于9月和12月各加息一次、累计50个基点，将利率推高至4.1%，并警告7月便可能提前采取行动；高盛副董事长、前达拉斯联储主席Rob Kaplan则警告，若通胀数据持续顽固，美联储最早秋季重启加息，且极可能以连续2至3次的系列行动出现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>花旗Andrew Hollenhorst团队则维持与市场截然相反的基准预测：下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。</strong>花旗的核心论点在于：油价急剧下跌正在消除通胀的主要上行风险，初请失业金人数趋势性上升正复制2024年和2025年的季节性走弱模式，而核心PCE在各类通胀指标中日益显现为&#34;异常值&#34;，其强势更多反映股价上涨而非广义消费价格压力。</p><h2 id=\"430d6906\">花旗的逻辑之一：油价下行正在消除通胀上行风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗坚持降息预测的第一个核心论点，来自油价的急速下跌。该行认为，<strong>油价走低将带动汽油价格下行，从而消除此前通胀上行的主要来源。</strong>基于市场的通胀预期指标已随油价同步回落，10年期通胀盈亏平衡率已降至冲突爆发前的低点水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗指出，若联储官员有更充裕的时间消化这一能源价格的最新变化，本次FOMC会议的鹰派程度将会明显降低。该行认为，随着油价下行效果逐步在数据中体现，未来数月通胀数据将趋于温和，有助于推动更多联储官员在9月前转向更为鸽派的立场，并为年底前降息创造条件。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/145ed3577bad64f1f3fafc29756e7824\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"445\"/></p><h2 id=\"f5ce59ca\">花旗的逻辑之二：劳动力市场走弱信号复制往年季节性规律</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗的第二个核心论点，聚焦于劳动力市场正在浮现的早期走弱信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">初请失业金人数和持续领取失业金人数均已连续数周呈上升趋势。花旗指出，这一模式在2024年和2025年均曾出现，随后均引发了一系列偏弱的月度就业报告和失业率上升，<strong>而失业率上升正是花旗预期美联储年内降息的关键驱动力。</strong>该行预计，初请失业金人数（6月20日当周）将维持在22.4万附近，持续领取失业金人数小幅增至181.3万，4周移动平均仍将继续走高。当前绝对水平虽仍不高，但若上升趋势持续，将与劳动力市场逐步走弱的判断相符。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就整体经济而言，花旗追踪的二季度GDP增速预测为2.5%。消费方面，5月零售销售控制组数据环比增长0.7%，韧性仍在，但实际可支配收入增长已放缓至近乎零增长，储蓄率维持低位，暗示支出增速下行风险正在积聚。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8022e8ffcf8fdd63935db0bd1297e88f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"429\"/></p><h2 id=\"pce\">花旗的逻辑之三：核心PCE是&#34;异常值&#34;，通胀画面并不统一</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗逆势坚守的第三个逻辑支柱，在于对核心PCE数据本身的质疑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">5月核心CPI月率仅录得0.21%，呈现温和；<strong>但花旗预计，即将公布的5月核心PCE月率将高达0.37%，两者之间已出现显著背离。</strong>花旗认为，核心PCE当前偏强的原因具有特殊性：该指标高度受AI相关价格影响，且直接受股价上涨推升——5月PPI数据显示投资组合管理费用月率大涨4.8%，主要反映股价从4月初低点到5月初高位的回升，而非消费端的真实价格压力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de4b0e811a52a84b5662f999ae1a5c2a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从横向比较来看，达拉斯联储修剪均值PCE、旧金山联储周期性PCE、克利夫兰联储中位数PCE以及核心CPI，均显示出比核心PCE更为温和的通胀走势。花旗认为，核心PCE正日益成为各类通胀指标中的&#34;异常值&#34;，而非反映广义消费价格压力的可靠信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗预计，随着AI相关价格在下半年趋于横盘，核心PCE与核心CPI之间的差距将逐步收窄，通胀整体走势将更趋向于支持政策宽松。在其预测路径下，核心PCE同比增速预计将从当前的3.3%附近逐步回落，至2027年年中前后降至2.1%-2.2%区间。</p><h2 id=\"ab66a449\">华尔街&#34;投降&#34;：德银预测两次加息，高盛示警连环收紧</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，面对沃什的鹰派冲击，华尔街机构纷纷改变立场。德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti团队在研报中明确，此前之所以迟迟未上调预测，主要源于两大不确定性：伊朗局势带来的经济前景高度不确定性，以及新任联储主席沃什的货币政策反应函数尚不清晰。6月FOMC会议的结果一举打消了这两大顾虑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德银大幅上调通胀预测，将2026年底和2027年核心PCE预期分别调升至3.2%和2.5%，并将基准预测更新为：美联储将于9月和12月各加息一次、累计50个基点，利率升至4.1%；此后2027年全年按兵不动，2028年上半年才开始降息。德银同时警告鹰派风险：若沃什已公开承诺&#34;修复&#34;价格稳定问题而委员会未及时行动，其公信力将受到考验——这意味着7月便可能提前加息，且若要完全撤回去年连续降息所产生的宽松效果，全年加息幅度或需扩大至75个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛副董事长Rob Kaplan则明确表示，若从现在到9月通胀数据仍未降温，秋季加息将是&#34;明智之举&#34;。他特别强调，美联储的政策调整极少以单次孤立行动出现，利率变动通常以2至3次系列行动展开：&#34;如果9月采取行动，你需要做好准备，可能还会有一到两次加息。&#34;曾历经多个货币政策周期的Kaplan基于历史经验的警告，为市场敲响了警钟。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0771f6361d74a78ebbf8c2fdc55c6b7","relate_stocks":{"TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","GBIL":"Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF","SKRE":"TUTTLE CAPITAL DAILY 2X INVERSE REGIONAL BANKS ETF","UBT":"债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","SVIX":"1倍做空短期期货恐慌指数ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB",".DJI":"道琼斯","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","MINT":"PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Exchange-Traded Fund","EDV":"美国延期国债ETF-Vanguard","VXX":"短期VIX期货ETN","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TYO":"3倍做空7-10年期国债ETF-Direxion","LQD":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债",".SPX":"S&P 500 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U.S","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","BIL":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays美国1-3月国债","VGLT":"美国长期国债ETF-Vanguard","FAZ":"三倍做空金融ETF-Direxion","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","PBDC":"Putnam Bdc Income ETF","MUB":"美国市政债ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3775196","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2645407520","content_text":"花旗认为，美联储下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。其核心逻辑在于：油价急速下跌正消除通胀上行风险，失业金人数上升预示劳动力市场季节性走弱，且核心PCE的强势受股价推升，属于各类通胀指标中的“异常值”，不反映广义消费价格压力。在美联储出人意料地大幅转鹰、华尔街主流机构相继撤回宽松预期之际，花旗集团坚持逆势判断，认为年内降息依然是大概率事件，并将基准情景锁定为10月重启宽松周期。6月FOMC会议上，18名联储官员中有9人的利率点阵图指向今年加息，远超市场和分析师预期。主席沃什在会后声明中正式删除\"宽松偏向\"措辞，并拒绝提供任何前瞻指引。受此冲击，掉期市场迅速将首次加息预期从2027年3月提前至今年10月，市场目前已为今年剩余时间定价约37个基点的加息幅度，2年期美债收益率会后创下3月以来最大单日涨幅。面对这一鹰派冲击，华尔街机构纷纷改变立场。德意志银行在最新研报中正式撤回宽松预测，预计美联储将于9月和12月各加息一次、累计50个基点，将利率推高至4.1%，并警告7月便可能提前采取行动；高盛副董事长、前达拉斯联储主席Rob Kaplan则警告，若通胀数据持续顽固，美联储最早秋季重启加息，且极可能以连续2至3次的系列行动出现。花旗Andrew Hollenhorst团队则维持与市场截然相反的基准预测：下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。花旗的核心论点在于：油价急剧下跌正在消除通胀的主要上行风险，初请失业金人数趋势性上升正复制2024年和2025年的季节性走弱模式，而核心PCE在各类通胀指标中日益显现为\"异常值\"，其强势更多反映股价上涨而非广义消费价格压力。花旗的逻辑之一：油价下行正在消除通胀上行风险花旗坚持降息预测的第一个核心论点，来自油价的急速下跌。该行认为，油价走低将带动汽油价格下行，从而消除此前通胀上行的主要来源。基于市场的通胀预期指标已随油价同步回落，10年期通胀盈亏平衡率已降至冲突爆发前的低点水平。花旗指出，若联储官员有更充裕的时间消化这一能源价格的最新变化，本次FOMC会议的鹰派程度将会明显降低。该行认为，随着油价下行效果逐步在数据中体现，未来数月通胀数据将趋于温和，有助于推动更多联储官员在9月前转向更为鸽派的立场，并为年底前降息创造条件。花旗的逻辑之二：劳动力市场走弱信号复制往年季节性规律花旗的第二个核心论点，聚焦于劳动力市场正在浮现的早期走弱信号。初请失业金人数和持续领取失业金人数均已连续数周呈上升趋势。花旗指出，这一模式在2024年和2025年均曾出现，随后均引发了一系列偏弱的月度就业报告和失业率上升，而失业率上升正是花旗预期美联储年内降息的关键驱动力。该行预计，初请失业金人数（6月20日当周）将维持在22.4万附近，持续领取失业金人数小幅增至181.3万，4周移动平均仍将继续走高。当前绝对水平虽仍不高，但若上升趋势持续，将与劳动力市场逐步走弱的判断相符。就整体经济而言，花旗追踪的二季度GDP增速预测为2.5%。消费方面，5月零售销售控制组数据环比增长0.7%，韧性仍在，但实际可支配收入增长已放缓至近乎零增长，储蓄率维持低位，暗示支出增速下行风险正在积聚。花旗的逻辑之三：核心PCE是\"异常值\"，通胀画面并不统一花旗逆势坚守的第三个逻辑支柱，在于对核心PCE数据本身的质疑。5月核心CPI月率仅录得0.21%，呈现温和；但花旗预计，即将公布的5月核心PCE月率将高达0.37%，两者之间已出现显著背离。花旗认为，核心PCE当前偏强的原因具有特殊性：该指标高度受AI相关价格影响，且直接受股价上涨推升——5月PPI数据显示投资组合管理费用月率大涨4.8%，主要反映股价从4月初低点到5月初高位的回升，而非消费端的真实价格压力。从横向比较来看，达拉斯联储修剪均值PCE、旧金山联储周期性PCE、克利夫兰联储中位数PCE以及核心CPI，均显示出比核心PCE更为温和的通胀走势。花旗认为，核心PCE正日益成为各类通胀指标中的\"异常值\"，而非反映广义消费价格压力的可靠信号。花旗预计，随着AI相关价格在下半年趋于横盘，核心PCE与核心CPI之间的差距将逐步收窄，通胀整体走势将更趋向于支持政策宽松。在其预测路径下，核心PCE同比增速预计将从当前的3.3%附近逐步回落，至2027年年中前后降至2.1%-2.2%区间。华尔街\"投降\"：德银预测两次加息，高盛示警连环收紧然而，面对沃什的鹰派冲击，华尔街机构纷纷改变立场。德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti团队在研报中明确，此前之所以迟迟未上调预测，主要源于两大不确定性：伊朗局势带来的经济前景高度不确定性，以及新任联储主席沃什的货币政策反应函数尚不清晰。6月FOMC会议的结果一举打消了这两大顾虑。德银大幅上调通胀预测，将2026年底和2027年核心PCE预期分别调升至3.2%和2.5%，并将基准预测更新为：美联储将于9月和12月各加息一次、累计50个基点，利率升至4.1%；此后2027年全年按兵不动，2028年上半年才开始降息。德银同时警告鹰派风险：若沃什已公开承诺\"修复\"价格稳定问题而委员会未及时行动，其公信力将受到考验——这意味着7月便可能提前加息，且若要完全撤回去年连续降息所产生的宽松效果，全年加息幅度或需扩大至75个基点。高盛副董事长Rob Kaplan则明确表示，若从现在到9月通胀数据仍未降温，秋季加息将是\"明智之举\"。他特别强调，美联储的政策调整极少以单次孤立行动出现，利率变动通常以2至3次系列行动展开：\"如果9月采取行动，你需要做好准备，可能还会有一到两次加息。\"曾历经多个货币政策周期的Kaplan基于历史经验的警告，为市场敲响了警钟。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MUB":1.5,"UBT":1.5,"TYO":1.5,"DBND":1.5,"ESmain":2,"BOND":1.5,"SQQQ":2,"VOO":1.5,"US7Y.BOND":1.5,"UUP":1.5,".DJI":2,"VCSH":1.5,"PBDC":1.5,"GOLY":1.5,"SCHO":1.5,"IEF":1.5,"LQD":1.5,"VIXmain":2,"TLH":1.5,"US2Y.BOND":1.5,"UVIX":0.6,"NGHT":1.5,"USHY":1.5,"BIL":1.5,"HYG":1.5,"TMF":1.5,"VGLT":1.5,"GBIL":1.5,"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"US10Y.BOND":1.5,"VXX":2,".IXIC":2,"QQQ":2,"NQmain":2,"TLT":1.5,"US6M.BOND":1.5,".SPX":2,"SVXY":0.6,"FAZ":1.5,"MINT":1.5,"US3Y.BOND":1.5,"SVIX":0.6,"US5Y.BOND":1.5,"UVXY":0.6,"VGSH":1.5,"SKRE":1.5,"GOVT":1.5,"YMmain":2,"ZROZ":1.5,"KBE":1.5,"VIX":2,"TIP":1.5,"JPST":1.5,"BND":1.5,"EDV":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"SPY":1.5,"TLTW":1.5,"US12M.BOND":1.5,"VIXY":2,"IEI":1.5,"BOXX":1.5,"TQQQ":2,"UDN":1.5,"VGIT":1.5,"VCIT":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":19,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":577893327949920,"gmtCreate":1782110809732,"gmtModify":1782113563243,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"用你说吗？人家已经1100多了，就是说废话的机构","listText":"用你说吗？人家已经1100多了，就是说废话的机构","text":"用你说吗？人家已经1100多了，就是说废话的机构","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/577893327949920","repostId":"2645046651","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2645046651","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1782108311,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2645046651?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-22 14:05","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"花旗看高美光目标价至1200美元，Q3盈利同比增速预期上调至1092%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2645046651","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"花旗将美光科技目标价大幅上调43%至1200美元，核心逻辑直指内存超级周期远超预期：DRAM现货价格年内已飙涨52%，预计2026年全年均价涨幅高达200%。花旗将2026财年第三季度营收及每股收益（EPS）预测上调6%，第四季度上调5%，第三季度每股收益同比涨幅从1025%上调至1092%，内存价格对盈利的杠杆效应正全面引爆。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">花旗研究大幅上调<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>目标价及盈利预测，认为内存市场超级周期仍在延续，价格上行动能远超此前预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台，花旗在6月17日报告中，将美光科技目标价从840美元上调至1200美元，维持&#34;买入&#34;评级，调幅达43%。与此同时，团队将美光2026财年及2027财年每股收益预测分别上调4%和10%，其中2027财年每股收益预测为114.73美元，较市场一致预期高出约4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>此次上调的核心逻辑在于内存价格持续超预期走强。</strong>花旗预计，受数据中心需求强劲及供给受限双重驱动，DRAM平均售价2026年全年将上涨200%，NAND平均售价同期涨幅亦达186%，价格上行趋势料延续至2027年。截至6月19日收盘，美光股价报1133美元，新目标价较现价隐含约6%的上行空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美光将于6月24日公布2026财年第三季度（截至5月）业绩，管理层届时对长期供货协议及供需展望的最新表态，将成为市场关注焦点。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">近期季度预测同步上调，财年盈利展望大幅跃升</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次不仅调整全年预测，亦同步上调近期季度预估。<strong>报告将2026财年第三季度营收及每股收益预测上调6%，第四季度上调5%，第三季度每股收益同比涨幅从1025%上调至1092%，主要依据为更为乐观的定价预期。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按最新预测，美光2026财年核心每股收益为60.73美元，2027财年进一步跃升至114.73美元，2028财年则为117.83美元。营收层面，预测美光2026财年营收达1150亿美元，2027财年进一步增至1975亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">利润率的扩张幅度尤为显著，充分反映了内存价格上涨对盈利的高度杠杆效应。花旗预计美光2026财年毛利率将从2025财年的39.8%大幅扩张至76.9%，2027财年进一步升至82.9%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4edc000190573a8d87e21f4692d11420\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"672\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">现货价格领涨，合约价格上行空间仍存</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">DRAM现货市场已率先反映供需紧张态势。数据显示，DRAM现货价格自今年1月初以来累计上涨52%，自4月初以来涨幅亦达22%。目前现货价格较合约价格溢价21%，花旗认为这一价差预示合约价格仍有持续上行空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按季度拆分，花旗预计DRAM平均售价在2026年第二至第四季度将分别环比上涨37%、13%和11%；NAND平均售价同期各季度涨幅则预计为45%、17%和6%，受强劲需求与供应增长放缓共同支撑。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">供需缺口料延续至2027年，HBM成下阶段核心催化剂</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">花旗预计2026年全球DRAM市场供给缺口约为5%，且这一供需失衡格局将延续至2027年。报告指出，今年以来DRAM价格上涨主要集中于普通商用DRAM，而非高带宽内存（HBM），预计HBM定价明年将进一步提升，成为下一阶段价格上行的主要驱动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">供给端方面，TrendForce预测2026年DRAM行业整体产出供给增速约为30%，美光自身产出增速预计达42%。花旗还指出，DRAM持续短缺将加速互补性NAND解决方案的采用，例如KV缓存卸载技术，这一趋势有望同时利好纯NAND标的及半导体设备股。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，报告特别提及Vera Rubin平台因DRAM供给有限出现降规格现象，进一步印证了当前供给瓶颈的现实压力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f072bbda584ae97a15d31c4f133565\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"324\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">估值折价反映高利润率风险，长协进展受投资者关注</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管前景乐观，花旗将目标价设定于修正后2027日历年每股收益的10倍，显著低于美光历史三年峰值估值的17倍。这一折价主要反映当前毛利率处于高位所蕴含的均值回归风险，以及近期Vera Rubin降规格报道带来的供给不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">投资者当前关注的核心议题包括：美光更新后的2026至2027年DRAM及NAND供需展望、长期供货协议（LTA）的签署进展——花旗认为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>已完成签约。随着美光6月24日财报的临近，管理层在上述议题上的最新表态将对市场预期产生直接影响。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>花旗看高美光目标价至1200美元，Q3盈利同比增速预期上调至1092%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n花旗看高美光目标价至1200美元，Q3盈利同比增速预期上调至1092%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-22 14:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">花旗研究大幅上调<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>目标价及盈利预测，认为内存市场超级周期仍在延续，价格上行动能远超此前预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台，花旗在6月17日报告中，将美光科技目标价从840美元上调至1200美元，维持&#34;买入&#34;评级，调幅达43%。与此同时，团队将美光2026财年及2027财年每股收益预测分别上调4%和10%，其中2027财年每股收益预测为114.73美元，较市场一致预期高出约4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>此次上调的核心逻辑在于内存价格持续超预期走强。</strong>花旗预计，受数据中心需求强劲及供给受限双重驱动，DRAM平均售价2026年全年将上涨200%，NAND平均售价同期涨幅亦达186%，价格上行趋势料延续至2027年。截至6月19日收盘，美光股价报1133美元，新目标价较现价隐含约6%的上行空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美光将于6月24日公布2026财年第三季度（截至5月）业绩，管理层届时对长期供货协议及供需展望的最新表态，将成为市场关注焦点。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">近期季度预测同步上调，财年盈利展望大幅跃升</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次不仅调整全年预测，亦同步上调近期季度预估。<strong>报告将2026财年第三季度营收及每股收益预测上调6%，第四季度上调5%，第三季度每股收益同比涨幅从1025%上调至1092%，主要依据为更为乐观的定价预期。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按最新预测，美光2026财年核心每股收益为60.73美元，2027财年进一步跃升至114.73美元，2028财年则为117.83美元。营收层面，预测美光2026财年营收达1150亿美元，2027财年进一步增至1975亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">利润率的扩张幅度尤为显著，充分反映了内存价格上涨对盈利的高度杠杆效应。花旗预计美光2026财年毛利率将从2025财年的39.8%大幅扩张至76.9%，2027财年进一步升至82.9%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4edc000190573a8d87e21f4692d11420\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"672\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">现货价格领涨，合约价格上行空间仍存</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">DRAM现货市场已率先反映供需紧张态势。数据显示，DRAM现货价格自今年1月初以来累计上涨52%，自4月初以来涨幅亦达22%。目前现货价格较合约价格溢价21%，花旗认为这一价差预示合约价格仍有持续上行空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按季度拆分，花旗预计DRAM平均售价在2026年第二至第四季度将分别环比上涨37%、13%和11%；NAND平均售价同期各季度涨幅则预计为45%、17%和6%，受强劲需求与供应增长放缓共同支撑。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">供需缺口料延续至2027年，HBM成下阶段核心催化剂</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">花旗预计2026年全球DRAM市场供给缺口约为5%，且这一供需失衡格局将延续至2027年。报告指出，今年以来DRAM价格上涨主要集中于普通商用DRAM，而非高带宽内存（HBM），预计HBM定价明年将进一步提升，成为下一阶段价格上行的主要驱动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">供给端方面，TrendForce预测2026年DRAM行业整体产出供给增速约为30%，美光自身产出增速预计达42%。花旗还指出，DRAM持续短缺将加速互补性NAND解决方案的采用，例如KV缓存卸载技术，这一趋势有望同时利好纯NAND标的及半导体设备股。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，报告特别提及Vera Rubin平台因DRAM供给有限出现降规格现象，进一步印证了当前供给瓶颈的现实压力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f072bbda584ae97a15d31c4f133565\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"324\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">估值折价反映高利润率风险，长协进展受投资者关注</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管前景乐观，花旗将目标价设定于修正后2027日历年每股收益的10倍，显著低于美光历史三年峰值估值的17倍。这一折价主要反映当前毛利率处于高位所蕴含的均值回归风险，以及近期Vera Rubin降规格报道带来的供给不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">投资者当前关注的核心议题包括：美光更新后的2026至2027年DRAM及NAND供需展望、长期供货协议（LTA）的签署进展——花旗认为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>已完成签约。随着美光6月24日财报的临近，管理层在上述议题上的最新表态将对市场预期产生直接影响。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97dc49a1c38f37d8c33d7241fccf9976","relate_stocks":{"MUD":"1倍做空MU ETF-Direxion","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","MULL":"2倍做多MU ETF-GraniteShares","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU2211815571.USD":"ALLIANZ POSITIVE CHANGE \"AT\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0792757196.USD":"TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) 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SGD-H1","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3775163","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2645046651","content_text":"花旗研究大幅上调美光科技目标价及盈利预测，认为内存市场超级周期仍在延续，价格上行动能远超此前预期。据追风交易台，花旗在6月17日报告中，将美光科技目标价从840美元上调至1200美元，维持\"买入\"评级，调幅达43%。与此同时，团队将美光2026财年及2027财年每股收益预测分别上调4%和10%，其中2027财年每股收益预测为114.73美元，较市场一致预期高出约4%。此次上调的核心逻辑在于内存价格持续超预期走强。花旗预计，受数据中心需求强劲及供给受限双重驱动，DRAM平均售价2026年全年将上涨200%，NAND平均售价同期涨幅亦达186%，价格上行趋势料延续至2027年。截至6月19日收盘，美光股价报1133美元，新目标价较现价隐含约6%的上行空间。美光将于6月24日公布2026财年第三季度（截至5月）业绩，管理层届时对长期供货协议及供需展望的最新表态，将成为市场关注焦点。近期季度预测同步上调，财年盈利展望大幅跃升此次不仅调整全年预测，亦同步上调近期季度预估。报告将2026财年第三季度营收及每股收益预测上调6%，第四季度上调5%，第三季度每股收益同比涨幅从1025%上调至1092%，主要依据为更为乐观的定价预期。按最新预测，美光2026财年核心每股收益为60.73美元，2027财年进一步跃升至114.73美元，2028财年则为117.83美元。营收层面，预测美光2026财年营收达1150亿美元，2027财年进一步增至1975亿美元。利润率的扩张幅度尤为显著，充分反映了内存价格上涨对盈利的高度杠杆效应。花旗预计美光2026财年毛利率将从2025财年的39.8%大幅扩张至76.9%，2027财年进一步升至82.9%。现货价格领涨，合约价格上行空间仍存DRAM现货市场已率先反映供需紧张态势。数据显示，DRAM现货价格自今年1月初以来累计上涨52%，自4月初以来涨幅亦达22%。目前现货价格较合约价格溢价21%，花旗认为这一价差预示合约价格仍有持续上行空间。按季度拆分，花旗预计DRAM平均售价在2026年第二至第四季度将分别环比上涨37%、13%和11%；NAND平均售价同期各季度涨幅则预计为45%、17%和6%，受强劲需求与供应增长放缓共同支撑。供需缺口料延续至2027年，HBM成下阶段核心催化剂花旗预计2026年全球DRAM市场供给缺口约为5%，且这一供需失衡格局将延续至2027年。报告指出，今年以来DRAM价格上涨主要集中于普通商用DRAM，而非高带宽内存（HBM），预计HBM定价明年将进一步提升，成为下一阶段价格上行的主要驱动力。供给端方面，TrendForce预测2026年DRAM行业整体产出供给增速约为30%，美光自身产出增速预计达42%。花旗还指出，DRAM持续短缺将加速互补性NAND解决方案的采用，例如KV缓存卸载技术，这一趋势有望同时利好纯NAND标的及半导体设备股。此外，报告特别提及Vera Rubin平台因DRAM供给有限出现降规格现象，进一步印证了当前供给瓶颈的现实压力。估值折价反映高利润率风险，长协进展受投资者关注尽管前景乐观，花旗将目标价设定于修正后2027日历年每股收益的10倍，显著低于美光历史三年峰值估值的17倍。这一折价主要反映当前毛利率处于高位所蕴含的均值回归风险，以及近期Vera Rubin降规格报道带来的供给不确定性。投资者当前关注的核心议题包括：美光更新后的2026至2027年DRAM及NAND供需展望、长期供货协议（LTA）的签署进展——花旗认为戴尔已完成签约。随着美光6月24日财报的临近，管理层在上述议题上的最新表态将对市场预期产生直接影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MUU":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"MU":1.98,"MUD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":577807346151512,"gmtCreate":1782089817936,"gmtModify":1782092223087,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 造孽","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 造孽","text":"$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 造孽","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6421c76111f5da25ad3241e53ba97ebb","width":"960","height":"1563"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/577807346151512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":576613038818368,"gmtCreate":1781798150658,"gmtModify":1781798261607,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 造孽啊，明明有科技不买去买个没有底的黄金，抽死自己","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 造孽啊，明明有科技不买去买个没有底的黄金，抽死自己","text":"$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 造孽啊，明明有科技不买去买个没有底的黄金，抽死自己","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/576613038818368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":575842551600376,"gmtCreate":1781600441218,"gmtModify":1781600522030,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"也没见闪迪跌啊","listText":"也没见闪迪跌啊","text":"也没见闪迪跌啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/575842551600376","repostId":"2643373567","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2643373567","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1781599906,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2643373567?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-16 16:51","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Citrini：AMD、苹果双双押注闪存替代DRAM，内存成本或直降55倍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2643373567","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"面对DRAM暴涨，AI存储向低成本闪存转移。AMD收购MEXT将AI驱动闪存技术引入数据中心，苹果推进端侧闪存方案。巨头看重闪存成本仅为DRAM的1/55，正重构AI存储架构。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI推理对昂贵DRAM的依赖正在松动。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>宣布收购内存优化公司MEXT，将AI驱动的闪存优化技术引入数据中心。这标志着AI存储架构正在经历一场结构性迁移，而核心驱动力只有一个数字：<strong>闪存成本仅为DRAM的1/55。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周一，AMD宣布以未披露金额完成对MEXT的收购。MEXT开发的AI驱动预测内存技术，旨在让闪存的行为更接近DRAM，在维持性能与效率的同时扩展可用内存容量。AMD表示，此次收购将扩充其AI产品组合，帮助数据中心客户提升性能、降低总拥有成本并加速工作负载部署。&#34;对内存的需求正在企业计算的每个品类中增长，&#34;AMD在声明中称。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a86b38617b68e608382e6d8db9bf1389\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"755\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">收购消息刺激AMD股价周一上涨7.7%至550.75美元，市值逼近9000亿美元关口，当日S&amp;P 500指数整体上涨1.8%。AMD今年以来累计涨幅已达323%。花旗上周五将AMD评级从中性上调至买入，目标价从460美元上调至575美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fe5a732905489dfc96d3c249e9bea543\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"882\" tg-height=\"984\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>早在2024年就开始推进&#34;LLM in a Flash&#34;端侧方案。这一布局背后，是愈演愈烈的DRAM供给危机。据TrendForce数据，高带宽内存（HBM）已占全部DRAM晶圆产能的约四分之一，DRAM合约价格在2026年第一季度单季环比暴涨约90%。Citrini Research指出，<strong>AI存储需求已大到需要多层架构共同承接，闪存并非取代HBM，而是在容量维度承接溢出需求</strong>——这场架构重构正在重新定价整条AI存储产业链。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7db9e832d1e323bc33ae1b899213dd97\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"825\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">内存税危机：瓶颈从AI蔓延至全经济</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师Shawn Kim团队本月早些时候的判断，<strong>内存价格飙升和供应稀缺正演变为数字经济的全面风险，</strong>&#34;从AI基础设施的瓶颈，蔓延至硬件利润率、设备可负担性、云成本、通胀乃至政策层面。&#34;这一压力已有具体案例佐证：Xbox首席执行官Asha Sharma上周表示，内存成本在过去两年间上涨了约五倍，导致公司无法生产消费者所需数量的游戏主机。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">HBM对DRAM产能的持续蚕食是这场危机的核心驱动。据TrendForce及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、SK海力士、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>等厂商的披露数据，HBM在DRAM晶圆产能中的占比已从2020年的2%攀升至2026年预估的25%。超大规模云厂商以多年期合同预购未来晶圆产出，进一步压缩了面向手机和PC的标准芯片可用产能。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">新增DRAM产能的建设同样面临结构性制约。扩产依赖EUV光刻机印制更精细线宽，每台EUV设备售价高达约2亿美元，一座新晶圆厂的投资动辄<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>美元，建设周期在顺利情况下也需数年。这一供给刚性，正是本轮短缺具备持续性的根本原因。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">55倍成本差：闪存替代的经济逻辑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据Citrini Research测算，<strong>闪存的每比特成本约为DRAM的1/55——QLC NAND约为每GB 0.05美元，DDR5 DRAM约为2.75美元，HBM3E则高达15美元。</strong>这一价差的可利用空间，在于AI推理中最大的单一内存消耗——KV缓存（记录模型每次生成步骤中所有先前标记的上下文，长对话中可增长至数百GB）——对读取速度的要求远低于模型权重的解码路径。对于此类顺序读取数据，DRAM的速度优势大幅收窄，而闪存的容量优势则充分体现。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8f9b061541f243d013842840b2a9af30\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"671\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪存的扩容路径也与DRAM存在本质区别。闪存通过垂直堆叠更多单元层来增加容量，依赖现有工厂已有的沉积和刻蚀工艺，无需新的光刻节点，不占用EUV资源。闪存控制器基于成熟的6/7纳米制程生产，远离正在制约先进制程的瓶颈节点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">苹果研究人员此前发表的论文&#34;LLM in a Flash&#34;提供了方法论支撑：通过将大语言模型参数存储于设备闪存、按需调取至DRAM的方式，可在DRAM容量受限的设备上运行超出其容量上限的模型，并在CPU和GPU上分别实现比朴素加载方式快4至5倍和20至25倍的推理速度。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1b87a29aa7ba0ff023c247b4f54e9951\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"630\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">两条路径：数据中心与端侧同步演进</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AMD的收购聚焦数据中心场景。通过将MEXT技术整合至AMD数据中心产品组合，AMD寻求帮助企业客户在AI工作负载部署中提升资源利用效率并压缩成本。摩根士丹利Shawn Kim团队认为，尽管内存短缺持续，AMD在云端市场竞争格局上仍具结构性优势——&#34;代理式AI驱动的CPU需求在结构上有利于AMD在云端市场份额的扩张。&#34;花旗对AMD的乐观预判则更多基于其GPU销售与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的正面竞争态势。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">苹果的路径则落子端侧。&#34;LLM in a Flash&#34;方案将模型推理对昂贵云端内存的依赖部分转移至设备本地闪存，在降低云端运算成本的同时，为端侧AI应用提供可行的内存架构支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据Citrini Research，两大路径共同指向同一结论：<strong>AI推理的内存层级正在重构，低频KV缓存、模型权重及端侧数据，将逐步从高价的HBM/DRAM下沉至NAND Flash/SSD层，形成多层次存储架构。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一架构转变正沿产业链形成多层次的传导效应。据Citrini Research梳理，最直接的受益层是NAND原厂，高容量NAND、企业级SSD及QLC NAND为最纯粹的方向，包括SanDisk、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>、美光及铠侠。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SSD控制器层被认为持续性最强——让闪存真正接近内存体验的核心在于控制器、固件与NVMe架构优化，涉及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIMO\">Silicon Motion</a>、Marvell等。CXL/PCIe高速互联层亦受益。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCitrini：AMD、苹果双双押注闪存替代DRAM，内存成本或直降55倍\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-16 16:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI推理对昂贵DRAM的依赖正在松动。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>宣布收购内存优化公司MEXT，将AI驱动的闪存优化技术引入数据中心。这标志着AI存储架构正在经历一场结构性迁移，而核心驱动力只有一个数字：<strong>闪存成本仅为DRAM的1/55。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周一，AMD宣布以未披露金额完成对MEXT的收购。MEXT开发的AI驱动预测内存技术，旨在让闪存的行为更接近DRAM，在维持性能与效率的同时扩展可用内存容量。AMD表示，此次收购将扩充其AI产品组合，帮助数据中心客户提升性能、降低总拥有成本并加速工作负载部署。&#34;对内存的需求正在企业计算的每个品类中增长，&#34;AMD在声明中称。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a86b38617b68e608382e6d8db9bf1389\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"755\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">收购消息刺激AMD股价周一上涨7.7%至550.75美元，市值逼近9000亿美元关口，当日S&amp;P 500指数整体上涨1.8%。AMD今年以来累计涨幅已达323%。花旗上周五将AMD评级从中性上调至买入，目标价从460美元上调至575美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fe5a732905489dfc96d3c249e9bea543\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"882\" tg-height=\"984\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>早在2024年就开始推进&#34;LLM in a Flash&#34;端侧方案。这一布局背后，是愈演愈烈的DRAM供给危机。据TrendForce数据，高带宽内存（HBM）已占全部DRAM晶圆产能的约四分之一，DRAM合约价格在2026年第一季度单季环比暴涨约90%。Citrini Research指出，<strong>AI存储需求已大到需要多层架构共同承接，闪存并非取代HBM，而是在容量维度承接溢出需求</strong>——这场架构重构正在重新定价整条AI存储产业链。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7db9e832d1e323bc33ae1b899213dd97\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"825\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">内存税危机：瓶颈从AI蔓延至全经济</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师Shawn Kim团队本月早些时候的判断，<strong>内存价格飙升和供应稀缺正演变为数字经济的全面风险，</strong>&#34;从AI基础设施的瓶颈，蔓延至硬件利润率、设备可负担性、云成本、通胀乃至政策层面。&#34;这一压力已有具体案例佐证：Xbox首席执行官Asha Sharma上周表示，内存成本在过去两年间上涨了约五倍，导致公司无法生产消费者所需数量的游戏主机。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">HBM对DRAM产能的持续蚕食是这场危机的核心驱动。据TrendForce及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、SK海力士、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>等厂商的披露数据，HBM在DRAM晶圆产能中的占比已从2020年的2%攀升至2026年预估的25%。超大规模云厂商以多年期合同预购未来晶圆产出，进一步压缩了面向手机和PC的标准芯片可用产能。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">新增DRAM产能的建设同样面临结构性制约。扩产依赖EUV光刻机印制更精细线宽，每台EUV设备售价高达约2亿美元，一座新晶圆厂的投资动辄<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>美元，建设周期在顺利情况下也需数年。这一供给刚性，正是本轮短缺具备持续性的根本原因。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">55倍成本差：闪存替代的经济逻辑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据Citrini Research测算，<strong>闪存的每比特成本约为DRAM的1/55——QLC NAND约为每GB 0.05美元，DDR5 DRAM约为2.75美元，HBM3E则高达15美元。</strong>这一价差的可利用空间，在于AI推理中最大的单一内存消耗——KV缓存（记录模型每次生成步骤中所有先前标记的上下文，长对话中可增长至数百GB）——对读取速度的要求远低于模型权重的解码路径。对于此类顺序读取数据，DRAM的速度优势大幅收窄，而闪存的容量优势则充分体现。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8f9b061541f243d013842840b2a9af30\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"671\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪存的扩容路径也与DRAM存在本质区别。闪存通过垂直堆叠更多单元层来增加容量，依赖现有工厂已有的沉积和刻蚀工艺，无需新的光刻节点，不占用EUV资源。闪存控制器基于成熟的6/7纳米制程生产，远离正在制约先进制程的瓶颈节点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">苹果研究人员此前发表的论文&#34;LLM in a Flash&#34;提供了方法论支撑：通过将大语言模型参数存储于设备闪存、按需调取至DRAM的方式，可在DRAM容量受限的设备上运行超出其容量上限的模型，并在CPU和GPU上分别实现比朴素加载方式快4至5倍和20至25倍的推理速度。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1b87a29aa7ba0ff023c247b4f54e9951\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"630\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">两条路径：数据中心与端侧同步演进</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AMD的收购聚焦数据中心场景。通过将MEXT技术整合至AMD数据中心产品组合，AMD寻求帮助企业客户在AI工作负载部署中提升资源利用效率并压缩成本。摩根士丹利Shawn Kim团队认为，尽管内存短缺持续，AMD在云端市场竞争格局上仍具结构性优势——&#34;代理式AI驱动的CPU需求在结构上有利于AMD在云端市场份额的扩张。&#34;花旗对AMD的乐观预判则更多基于其GPU销售与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的正面竞争态势。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">苹果的路径则落子端侧。&#34;LLM in a Flash&#34;方案将模型推理对昂贵云端内存的依赖部分转移至设备本地闪存，在降低云端运算成本的同时，为端侧AI应用提供可行的内存架构支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据Citrini Research，两大路径共同指向同一结论：<strong>AI推理的内存层级正在重构，低频KV缓存、模型权重及端侧数据，将逐步从高价的HBM/DRAM下沉至NAND Flash/SSD层，形成多层次存储架构。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一架构转变正沿产业链形成多层次的传导效应。据Citrini Research梳理，最直接的受益层是NAND原厂，高容量NAND、企业级SSD及QLC NAND为最纯粹的方向，包括SanDisk、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>、美光及铠侠。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SSD控制器层被认为持续性最强——让闪存真正接近内存体验的核心在于控制器、固件与NVMe架构优化，涉及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIMO\">Silicon Motion</a>、Marvell等。CXL/PCIe高速互联层亦受益。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a86b38617b68e608382e6d8db9bf1389","relate_stocks":{"LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU0949170772.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 SGD-H","LU1003077747.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A6\" (HKDHDG) INC","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON 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(USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3774784","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2643373567","content_text":"AI推理对昂贵DRAM的依赖正在松动。AMD宣布收购内存优化公司MEXT，将AI驱动的闪存优化技术引入数据中心。这标志着AI存储架构正在经历一场结构性迁移，而核心驱动力只有一个数字：闪存成本仅为DRAM的1/55。周一，AMD宣布以未披露金额完成对MEXT的收购。MEXT开发的AI驱动预测内存技术，旨在让闪存的行为更接近DRAM，在维持性能与效率的同时扩展可用内存容量。AMD表示，此次收购将扩充其AI产品组合，帮助数据中心客户提升性能、降低总拥有成本并加速工作负载部署。\"对内存的需求正在企业计算的每个品类中增长，\"AMD在声明中称。收购消息刺激AMD股价周一上涨7.7%至550.75美元，市值逼近9000亿美元关口，当日S&P 500指数整体上涨1.8%。AMD今年以来累计涨幅已达323%。花旗上周五将AMD评级从中性上调至买入，目标价从460美元上调至575美元。值得注意的是，苹果早在2024年就开始推进\"LLM in a Flash\"端侧方案。这一布局背后，是愈演愈烈的DRAM供给危机。据TrendForce数据，高带宽内存（HBM）已占全部DRAM晶圆产能的约四分之一，DRAM合约价格在2026年第一季度单季环比暴涨约90%。Citrini Research指出，AI存储需求已大到需要多层架构共同承接，闪存并非取代HBM，而是在容量维度承接溢出需求——这场架构重构正在重新定价整条AI存储产业链。内存税危机：瓶颈从AI蔓延至全经济据摩根士丹利分析师Shawn Kim团队本月早些时候的判断，内存价格飙升和供应稀缺正演变为数字经济的全面风险，\"从AI基础设施的瓶颈，蔓延至硬件利润率、设备可负担性、云成本、通胀乃至政策层面。\"这一压力已有具体案例佐证：Xbox首席执行官Asha Sharma上周表示，内存成本在过去两年间上涨了约五倍，导致公司无法生产消费者所需数量的游戏主机。HBM对DRAM产能的持续蚕食是这场危机的核心驱动。据TrendForce及三星、SK海力士、美光等厂商的披露数据，HBM在DRAM晶圆产能中的占比已从2020年的2%攀升至2026年预估的25%。超大规模云厂商以多年期合同预购未来晶圆产出，进一步压缩了面向手机和PC的标准芯片可用产能。新增DRAM产能的建设同样面临结构性制约。扩产依赖EUV光刻机印制更精细线宽，每台EUV设备售价高达约2亿美元，一座新晶圆厂的投资动辄数百亿美元，建设周期在顺利情况下也需数年。这一供给刚性，正是本轮短缺具备持续性的根本原因。55倍成本差：闪存替代的经济逻辑据Citrini Research测算，闪存的每比特成本约为DRAM的1/55——QLC NAND约为每GB 0.05美元，DDR5 DRAM约为2.75美元，HBM3E则高达15美元。这一价差的可利用空间，在于AI推理中最大的单一内存消耗——KV缓存（记录模型每次生成步骤中所有先前标记的上下文，长对话中可增长至数百GB）——对读取速度的要求远低于模型权重的解码路径。对于此类顺序读取数据，DRAM的速度优势大幅收窄，而闪存的容量优势则充分体现。闪存的扩容路径也与DRAM存在本质区别。闪存通过垂直堆叠更多单元层来增加容量，依赖现有工厂已有的沉积和刻蚀工艺，无需新的光刻节点，不占用EUV资源。闪存控制器基于成熟的6/7纳米制程生产，远离正在制约先进制程的瓶颈节点。苹果研究人员此前发表的论文\"LLM in a Flash\"提供了方法论支撑：通过将大语言模型参数存储于设备闪存、按需调取至DRAM的方式，可在DRAM容量受限的设备上运行超出其容量上限的模型，并在CPU和GPU上分别实现比朴素加载方式快4至5倍和20至25倍的推理速度。两条路径：数据中心与端侧同步演进AMD的收购聚焦数据中心场景。通过将MEXT技术整合至AMD数据中心产品组合，AMD寻求帮助企业客户在AI工作负载部署中提升资源利用效率并压缩成本。摩根士丹利Shawn Kim团队认为，尽管内存短缺持续，AMD在云端市场竞争格局上仍具结构性优势——\"代理式AI驱动的CPU需求在结构上有利于AMD在云端市场份额的扩张。\"花旗对AMD的乐观预判则更多基于其GPU销售与英伟达的正面竞争态势。苹果的路径则落子端侧。\"LLM in a Flash\"方案将模型推理对昂贵云端内存的依赖部分转移至设备本地闪存，在降低云端运算成本的同时，为端侧AI应用提供可行的内存架构支撑。据Citrini Research，两大路径共同指向同一结论：AI推理的内存层级正在重构，低频KV缓存、模型权重及端侧数据，将逐步从高价的HBM/DRAM下沉至NAND Flash/SSD层，形成多层次存储架构。这一架构转变正沿产业链形成多层次的传导效应。据Citrini Research梳理，最直接的受益层是NAND原厂，高容量NAND、企业级SSD及QLC NAND为最纯粹的方向，包括SanDisk、西部数据、美光及铠侠。SSD控制器层被认为持续性最强——让闪存真正接近内存体验的核心在于控制器、固件与NVMe架构优化，涉及Silicon Motion、Marvell等。CXL/PCIe高速互联层亦受益。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMUU":0.6,"AAPW":0.6,"APLY":0.6,"AMDY":0.6,"AMDS":0.6,"AMD":1.96,"AAPY":0.6,"AAPB":0.6,"AMDU":0.6,"AAPU":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"AAPD":0.6,"AAPX":0.6,"AMYY":0.6,"AMDL":0.6,"AMDW":0.6,"DAMD":0.6,"AAPL":1.89,"AMDD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":573675882763736,"gmtCreate":1781087236304,"gmtModify":1781093845328,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"带杠杆的不是人玩的，极端情况下，主力只要拉你一下你就爆一下，而无力加仓，哪怕最后方向对了跟你无关了😔","listText":"带杠杆的不是人玩的，极端情况下，主力只要拉你一下你就爆一下，而无力加仓，哪怕最后方向对了跟你无关了😔","text":"带杠杆的不是人玩的，极端情况下，主力只要拉你一下你就爆一下，而无力加仓，哪怕最后方向对了跟你无关了😔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/573675882763736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":573410380423360,"gmtCreate":1781022408102,"gmtModify":1781023418677,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 请告诉我这是最后一跌好吗？12号以后就买不了了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 请告诉我这是最后一跌好吗？12号以后就买不了了","text":"$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 请告诉我这是最后一跌好吗？12号以后就买不了了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c19c93478b30164170711632c0fbb8d7","width":"960","height":"1563"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/573410380423360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":573327636874440,"gmtCreate":1780994528994,"gmtModify":1780995118817,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"赶紧来份协议吧，世界杯之前","listText":"赶紧来份协议吧，世界杯之前","text":"赶紧来份协议吧，世界杯之前","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/573327636874440","repostId":"1119916174","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1119916174","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1780994430,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119916174?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-09 16:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"特朗普称美伊谈判进入“最后关头”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119916174","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月9日，美国总统特朗普9日说，美国与伊朗的谈判已进入“最后关头”，将在“两到三天内”达成协议。特朗普9日在纽约肯尼迪国际机场接受记者采访时说，以色列和伊朗此前“来回交锋”，如今“同意停火”，“我们正处在最后关头，将达成一份非常、非常棒的协议”。当被问及谈判还需耗时多久，特朗普回答：“两到三天。”当地时间7日晚至8日，伊朗与以色列爆发自4月上旬美以伊宣布停火以来最大规模交火。8日晚些时候，伊朗与以色列先后宣布停止对对方的袭击。特朗普近期多次表示即将与伊朗达成协议，但截至目前都没有达成。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月9日，美国总统特朗普9日说，美国与伊朗的谈判已进入“最后关头”，将在“两到三天内”达成协议。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普9日在纽约肯尼迪国际机场接受记者采访时说，以色列和伊朗此前“来回交锋”，如今“同意停火”，“我们正处在最后关头，将达成一份非常、非常棒的协议”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当被问及谈判还需耗时多久，特朗普回答：“两到三天。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当地时间7日晚至8日，伊朗与以色列爆发自4月上旬美以伊宣布停火以来最大规模交火。8日晚些时候，伊朗与以色列先后宣布停止对对方的袭击。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普近期多次表示即将与伊朗达成协议，但截至目前都没有达成。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特朗普称美伊谈判进入“最后关头”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-09 16:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月9日，美国总统特朗普9日说，美国与伊朗的谈判已进入“最后关头”，将在“两到三天内”达成协议。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普9日在纽约肯尼迪国际机场接受记者采访时说，以色列和伊朗此前“来回交锋”，如今“同意停火”，“我们正处在最后关头，将达成一份非常、非常棒的协议”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当被问及谈判还需耗时多久，特朗普回答：“两到三天。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当地时间7日晚至8日，伊朗与以色列爆发自4月上旬美以伊宣布停火以来最大规模交火。8日晚些时候，伊朗与以色列先后宣布停止对对方的袭击。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普近期多次表示即将与伊朗达成协议，但截至目前都没有达成。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf8deb964fe83a788e7ae02a962af884","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119916174","content_text":"6月9日，美国总统特朗普9日说，美国与伊朗的谈判已进入“最后关头”，将在“两到三天内”达成协议。特朗普9日在纽约肯尼迪国际机场接受记者采访时说，以色列和伊朗此前“来回交锋”，如今“同意停火”，“我们正处在最后关头，将达成一份非常、非常棒的协议”。当被问及谈判还需耗时多久，特朗普回答：“两到三天。”当地时间7日晚至8日，伊朗与以色列爆发自4月上旬美以伊宣布停火以来最大规模交火。8日晚些时候，伊朗与以色列先后宣布停止对对方的袭击。特朗普近期多次表示即将与伊朗达成协议，但截至目前都没有达成。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":572005414089880,"gmtCreate":1780672086487,"gmtModify":1780673342705,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"涨你大头鬼，快点停战降息","listText":"涨你大头鬼，快点停战降息","text":"涨你大头鬼，快点停战降息","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/572005414089880","repostId":"1187628526","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187628526","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1780670695,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187628526?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-05 22:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普：就业报告非常强劲，股市理应上涨，经济增长并不意味着通胀","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187628526","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"股市理应上涨，而不是下跌。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span>6月5日周五，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台上发文称：“刚刚公布的就业报告（5月非农）非常强劲，股市理应上涨，而不是下跌。过去200年来一直都是这样。经济增长并不意味着通胀！一个国家如果不实现增长，又怎么能实现伟大呢？？？”</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">截至发稿，美股三大指数均处于跌势，纳指跌超1.7%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c96e7c04d977a419d0efbbfe3315d7d4\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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22:44</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span>6月5日周五，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台上发文称：“刚刚公布的就业报告（5月非农）非常强劲，股市理应上涨，而不是下跌。过去200年来一直都是这样。经济增长并不意味着通胀！一个国家如果不实现增长，又怎么能实现伟大呢？？？”</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">截至发稿，美股三大指数均处于跌势，纳指跌超1.7%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c96e7c04d977a419d0efbbfe3315d7d4\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7ed29d90b87a6605e0b8dbdcc213f44b","relate_stocks":{"DMAX":"ISHARES LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER DEC ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPXL":"三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion","YSPY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST SPY ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","HIBL":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bull 3X 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ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187628526","content_text":"6月5日周五，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台上发文称：“刚刚公布的就业报告（5月非农）非常强劲，股市理应上涨，而不是下跌。过去200年来一直都是这样。经济增长并不意味着通胀！一个国家如果不实现增长，又怎么能实现伟大呢？？？”截至发稿，美股三大指数均处于跌势，纳指跌超1.7%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SDOW":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,".IXIC":2,"UDOW":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,".DJI":2,"DXD":0.6,"SH":0.6,".SPX":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":571974780015280,"gmtCreate":1780664604896,"gmtModify":1780665685493,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 不好玩一点也不好玩，去年做空就降息，今年做多给加息，数据可能有这么好吗？光meta就裁员几万，ai进展人会被替代多少","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 不好玩一点也不好玩，去年做空就降息，今年做多给加息，数据可能有这么好吗？光meta就裁员几万，ai进展人会被替代多少","text":"$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 不好玩一点也不好玩，去年做空就降息，今年做多给加息，数据可能有这么好吗？光meta就裁员几万，ai进展人会被替代多少","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/571974780015280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":571966778738640,"gmtCreate":1780662672695,"gmtModify":1780664213790,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"假数据，ai裁员的人呢","listText":"假数据，ai裁员的人呢","text":"假数据，ai裁员的人呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/571966778738640","repostId":"1174969218","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1174969218","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1780662620,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174969218?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-05 20:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国5月非农就业增加17.2万人，预期增加8.5万人，5月失业率4.3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174969218","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"前值由增加11.5万人修正为增加17.9万人。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美国5月非农就业人数增加17.2万人，预期增加8.5万人，前值由增加11.5万人修正为增加17.9万人。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3月份非农新增就业人数从万人上修至21.4万人；4月份非农新增就业人数从11.5万人上修至17.9万人。修正后，3月和4月新增就业人数合计较修正前高9.3万人。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国劳工统计局：就业增长主要集中在休闲和餐饮、地方政府以及医疗保健行业，而金融活动领域的就业则有所下降。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份报告表明，美国过去三个月的就业增幅达到两年多以来最强水平。尽管近期能源价格上涨导致消费者信心跌至历史低位，但在去年就业增长几乎停滞之后，美国劳动力市场正重新走强。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美国5月失业率录得4.3%，连续第二个月持稳，符合市场预期。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国劳工统计局：失业率保持在4.3%，自2025年7月以来一直维持在4.3%至4.5%的窄幅区间内。失业总人数为730万。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>市场反应</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据CME“美联储观察”：美联储到6月维持利率不变的概率为96.6%（非农公布前为96.4%），累计降息25个基点的概率为3.4%。美联储到7月维持利率不变的概率为90.6%，累计加息25个基点的概率6.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为3.2%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场目前定价美联储将在明年1月底前加息，非农公布前预期的时间点为明年3月底前。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span>机构分析师Anstey评美国非农：考虑到美联储的使命是维持物价稳定和实现充分就业，仅凭这些数据来看，似乎很难认为当前就业市场需要帮助。另一方面，通胀率已远高于美联储2%的通胀目标。预计下周的CPI数据显示，核心通胀率将升至2.9%，而总体通胀将同比飙升4.2%（与美国5月平均每小时工资年率3.4%的增长相比，有点糟糕）。如果美联储政策制定者不进一步暗示2026年可能加息，那将是令人意外的。</span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国5月非农就业增加17.2万人，预期增加8.5万人，5月失业率4.3%</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国5月非农就业增加17.2万人，预期增加8.5万人，5月失业率4.3%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-05 20:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美国5月非农就业人数增加17.2万人，预期增加8.5万人，前值由增加11.5万人修正为增加17.9万人。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3月份非农新增就业人数从万人上修至21.4万人；4月份非农新增就业人数从11.5万人上修至17.9万人。修正后，3月和4月新增就业人数合计较修正前高9.3万人。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国劳工统计局：就业增长主要集中在休闲和餐饮、地方政府以及医疗保健行业，而金融活动领域的就业则有所下降。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份报告表明，美国过去三个月的就业增幅达到两年多以来最强水平。尽管近期能源价格上涨导致消费者信心跌至历史低位，但在去年就业增长几乎停滞之后，美国劳动力市场正重新走强。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美国5月失业率录得4.3%，连续第二个月持稳，符合市场预期。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国劳工统计局：失业率保持在4.3%，自2025年7月以来一直维持在4.3%至4.5%的窄幅区间内。失业总人数为730万。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>市场反应</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据CME“美联储观察”：美联储到6月维持利率不变的概率为96.6%（非农公布前为96.4%），累计降息25个基点的概率为3.4%。美联储到7月维持利率不变的概率为90.6%，累计加息25个基点的概率6.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为3.2%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场目前定价美联储将在明年1月底前加息，非农公布前预期的时间点为明年3月底前。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span>机构分析师Anstey评美国非农：考虑到美联储的使命是维持物价稳定和实现充分就业，仅凭这些数据来看，似乎很难认为当前就业市场需要帮助。另一方面，通胀率已远高于美联储2%的通胀目标。预计下周的CPI数据显示，核心通胀率将升至2.9%，而总体通胀将同比飙升4.2%（与美国5月平均每小时工资年率3.4%的增长相比，有点糟糕）。如果美联储政策制定者不进一步暗示2026年可能加息，那将是令人意外的。</span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b68de4934c17cb39294aa80c76a44884","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174969218","content_text":"美国5月非农就业人数增加17.2万人，预期增加8.5万人，前值由增加11.5万人修正为增加17.9万人。3月份非农新增就业人数从万人上修至21.4万人；4月份非农新增就业人数从11.5万人上修至17.9万人。修正后，3月和4月新增就业人数合计较修正前高9.3万人。美国劳工统计局：就业增长主要集中在休闲和餐饮、地方政府以及医疗保健行业，而金融活动领域的就业则有所下降。这份报告表明，美国过去三个月的就业增幅达到两年多以来最强水平。尽管近期能源价格上涨导致消费者信心跌至历史低位，但在去年就业增长几乎停滞之后，美国劳动力市场正重新走强。美国5月失业率录得4.3%，连续第二个月持稳，符合市场预期。美国劳工统计局：失业率保持在4.3%，自2025年7月以来一直维持在4.3%至4.5%的窄幅区间内。失业总人数为730万。市场反应据CME“美联储观察”：美联储到6月维持利率不变的概率为96.6%（非农公布前为96.4%），累计降息25个基点的概率为3.4%。美联储到7月维持利率不变的概率为90.6%，累计加息25个基点的概率6.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为3.2%。市场目前定价美联储将在明年1月底前加息，非农公布前预期的时间点为明年3月底前。机构分析师Anstey评美国非农：考虑到美联储的使命是维持物价稳定和实现充分就业，仅凭这些数据来看，似乎很难认为当前就业市场需要帮助。另一方面，通胀率已远高于美联储2%的通胀目标。预计下周的CPI数据显示，核心通胀率将升至2.9%，而总体通胀将同比飙升4.2%（与美国5月平均每小时工资年率3.4%的增长相比，有点糟糕）。如果美联储政策制定者不进一步暗示2026年可能加息，那将是令人意外的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NQmain":1,"ESmain":1,"YMmain":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":571656099321016,"gmtCreate":1780588662547,"gmtModify":1780589164042,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 日了，怎么比纽约金显示的少涨那么多","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 日了，怎么比纽约金显示的少涨那么多","text":"$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 日了，怎么比纽约金显示的少涨那么多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/571656099321016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":570896448733808,"gmtCreate":1780403280842,"gmtModify":1780403609705,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"拜拜了您嘞，离开的报个到","listText":"拜拜了您嘞，离开的报个到","text":"拜拜了您嘞，离开的报个到","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/570896448733808","repostId":"1144850251","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1144850251","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1780397116,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144850251?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-02 18:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"关于存量投资者在中国境内（内地）服务合规调整的通知","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144850251","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"为落实2年集中整治期的行业监管要求，推动跨境证券业务规范发展，老虎国际将对存量投资者账户在中国境内的服务进行相应调整。请您放心，本次调整不会影响为存量投资者在境外提供服务，也不影响全体客户现有资产安全，客户可正常查询账户、持有及卖出已有持仓。","content":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">尊敬的客户：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">感谢您一直以来的信任与支持。为落实2年集中整治期的行业监管要求，推动跨境证券业务规范发展，老虎国际将对存量投资者账户在中国境内<span>（内地）</span>的服务进行相应调整。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">自北京时间<strong>2026年6月12日</strong>起将做如下调整：</p><ol><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在境内交易服务：</strong>暂停股票等所有品种的新开仓、加仓交易，仅支持卖出、平仓操作；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在境内资金划转服务</strong>：暂停资金转入，转出功能保持正常，全力保障您的资金安全。</p></li></ol><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>请您放心，本次调整不会影响为存量投资者在境外提供服务，也不影响全体客户现有资产安全，客户可正常查询账户、持有及卖出已有持仓。</strong>感谢您的理解和配合，若有任何疑问，欢迎随时联系客服（400-603-7555），我们将竭诚协助。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/news/1184303210\" title=\"\">老虎国际：关于近期跨境证券业务监管指引的说明</a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>关于存量投资者在中国境内（内地）服务合规调整的通知</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n关于存量投资者在中国境内（内地）服务合规调整的通知\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-02 18:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">尊敬的客户：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">感谢您一直以来的信任与支持。为落实2年集中整治期的行业监管要求，推动跨境证券业务规范发展，老虎国际将对存量投资者账户在中国境内<span>（内地）</span>的服务进行相应调整。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">自北京时间<strong>2026年6月12日</strong>起将做如下调整：</p><ol><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在境内交易服务：</strong>暂停股票等所有品种的新开仓、加仓交易，仅支持卖出、平仓操作；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在境内资金划转服务</strong>：暂停资金转入，转出功能保持正常，全力保障您的资金安全。</p></li></ol><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>请您放心，本次调整不会影响为存量投资者在境外提供服务，也不影响全体客户现有资产安全，客户可正常查询账户、持有及卖出已有持仓。</strong>感谢您的理解和配合，若有任何疑问，欢迎随时联系客服（400-603-7555），我们将竭诚协助。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/news/1184303210\" title=\"\">老虎国际：关于近期跨境证券业务监管指引的说明</a></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144850251","content_text":"尊敬的客户：感谢您一直以来的信任与支持。为落实2年集中整治期的行业监管要求，推动跨境证券业务规范发展，老虎国际将对存量投资者账户在中国境内（内地）的服务进行相应调整。自北京时间2026年6月12日起将做如下调整：在境内交易服务：暂停股票等所有品种的新开仓、加仓交易，仅支持卖出、平仓操作；在境内资金划转服务：暂停资金转入，转出功能保持正常，全力保障您的资金安全。请您放心，本次调整不会影响为存量投资者在境外提供服务，也不影响全体客户现有资产安全，客户可正常查询账户、持有及卖出已有持仓。感谢您的理解和配合，若有任何疑问，欢迎随时联系客服（400-603-7555），我们将竭诚协助。老虎国际：关于近期跨境证券业务监管指引的说明","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":569599422584168,"gmtCreate":1780066644245,"gmtModify":1780067265300,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 守得云开见月明","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 守得云开见月明","text":"$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 守得云开见月明","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd1d9606f2a885a78192aa0d0df51c06","width":"960","height":"1563"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/569599422584168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":569398648561744,"gmtCreate":1780017617172,"gmtModify":1780018531081,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"五一后买的已经翻倍可惜瞎折腾把筹码搞丢了","listText":"五一后买的已经翻倍可惜瞎折腾把筹码搞丢了","text":"五一后买的已经翻倍可惜瞎折腾把筹码搞丢了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/569398648561744","repostId":"2639515617","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2639515617","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1780014868,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2639515617?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-29 08:34","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"“两倍海力士”已成全球老大，全球杠杆/反向“单票ETF”规模1个半月翻倍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2639515617","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"全球杠杆单票ETF规模突破600亿美元，一个半月内翻倍——“两倍做多SK海力士”ETF已登顶全球最大，韩国新品上市两天吸金逾20亿美元，AI存储芯片主题正成为这场杠杆狂潮的核心引擎。高盛已发出“混乱平仓”警告，一位交易员直言：“这不会有好结局，但提前下车本身可能才是致命的。”","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">全球单票杠杆ETF市场正经历一场前所未有的扩张，而AI与存储芯片主题正是这场狂潮的核心驱动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>顶级交易员Chris Lucas的最新追踪数据，<strong>全球杠杆/反向单票ETF资产管理规模已突破600亿美元，自4月初以来规模翻倍，</strong>增速之快令市场侧目。在这一浪潮中，一只提供SK海力士两倍做多敞口的ETF已跃升为全球规模最大的杠杆单票ETF，折射出投资者对全球AI及存储芯片主题的高度集中押注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛团队对这一指数级需求未作明确的方向性判断，但同时指出存在多重可能引发&#34;混乱式平仓&#34;的催化因素。一位资深交易员对此直言：&#34;这不会有好结局……但对某些交易员而言，提前下车本身就可能是致命的。&#34;</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">规模1个半月翻倍，美港韩三足鼎立</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">自2022年美国推出单票ETF产品以来，这一市场的体量与覆盖范围持续扩张，但近期的加速尤为显著。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据彭博及高盛全球固收与股票部门截至2026年5月27日的数据，全球杠杆/反向单票ETF总规模已超过600亿美元，较4月初不足300亿美元的水平在约一个半月内实现翻倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>从分布来看，美国市场占据约70%份额，规模约460亿美元；香港以约130亿美元位居第二，且在过去两个月内净流入资产高达100亿美元；韩国以约33亿美元排名第三，其首批单票ETF产品本周刚完成上市。三地共同构成了当前全球单票杠杆ETF的主要版图。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;两倍海力士&#34;登顶，AI存储主题主导资金流向</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这场资金狂潮的主角，已从传统的美国超大市值科技股悄然转向全球AI产业链中的存储芯片标的。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目前全球规模最大的杠杆单票ETF，是一只提供SK海力士（港股代码：7709 HK）两倍多头敞口的产品。与此同时，韩国本周新上市的SK海力士单票ETF（代码：0193T0 KS）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>单票ETF（代码：0193W0 KS）在上市仅两天内，分别吸引了约12亿美元和8.16亿美元的资金涌入，认购热度罕见。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f573982adfe29300fc35149a76cc3cf5\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"464\" tg-height=\"372\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，追踪DRAM主题的相关ETF已成为有史以来增速最快的ETF品类之一，进一步凸显了市场对存储芯片这一细分赛道的高度集中关注。Chris Lucas指出，投资者正在寻求对全球AI复合体中核心价格驱动标的的杠杆敞口，这一趋势与上述产品的爆发式增长高度吻合。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛示警：指数级扩张背后潜藏&#34;混乱平仓&#34;风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管需求端热情高涨，高盛团队已就这一市场结构发出谨慎信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛方面表示，虽然对当前指数级需求不作方向性判断，但明确指出存在多重可能触发&#34;混乱式平仓&#34;的潜在催化因素。杠杆单票ETF因其产品结构特性，在标的资产出现大幅波动时，可能引发集中、快速的强制减仓，进而对标的股票价格形成放大效应。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一位资深交易员对此的表述颇具警示意味<strong>：&#34;这不会有好结局……但对某些交易员而言，提前下车本身就可能是致命的。&#34;</strong>这句话精准描述了当前市场参与者所面临的两难困境——既担忧泡沫破裂的系统性风险，又难以承受过早离场所带来的机会成本压力，而正是这种博弈心理，在客观上持续推高了市场的集中度与脆弱性。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“两倍海力士”已成全球老大，全球杠杆/反向“单票ETF”规模1个半月翻倍</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“两倍海力士”已成全球老大，全球杠杆/反向“单票ETF”规模1个半月翻倍\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-29 08:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">全球单票杠杆ETF市场正经历一场前所未有的扩张，而AI与存储芯片主题正是这场狂潮的核心驱动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>顶级交易员Chris Lucas的最新追踪数据，<strong>全球杠杆/反向单票ETF资产管理规模已突破600亿美元，自4月初以来规模翻倍，</strong>增速之快令市场侧目。在这一浪潮中，一只提供SK海力士两倍做多敞口的ETF已跃升为全球规模最大的杠杆单票ETF，折射出投资者对全球AI及存储芯片主题的高度集中押注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛团队对这一指数级需求未作明确的方向性判断，但同时指出存在多重可能引发&#34;混乱式平仓&#34;的催化因素。一位资深交易员对此直言：&#34;这不会有好结局……但对某些交易员而言，提前下车本身就可能是致命的。&#34;</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">规模1个半月翻倍，美港韩三足鼎立</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">自2022年美国推出单票ETF产品以来，这一市场的体量与覆盖范围持续扩张，但近期的加速尤为显著。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据彭博及高盛全球固收与股票部门截至2026年5月27日的数据，全球杠杆/反向单票ETF总规模已超过600亿美元，较4月初不足300亿美元的水平在约一个半月内实现翻倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>从分布来看，美国市场占据约70%份额，规模约460亿美元；香港以约130亿美元位居第二，且在过去两个月内净流入资产高达100亿美元；韩国以约33亿美元排名第三，其首批单票ETF产品本周刚完成上市。三地共同构成了当前全球单票杠杆ETF的主要版图。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;两倍海力士&#34;登顶，AI存储主题主导资金流向</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这场资金狂潮的主角，已从传统的美国超大市值科技股悄然转向全球AI产业链中的存储芯片标的。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目前全球规模最大的杠杆单票ETF，是一只提供SK海力士（港股代码：7709 HK）两倍多头敞口的产品。与此同时，韩国本周新上市的SK海力士单票ETF（代码：0193T0 KS）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>单票ETF（代码：0193W0 KS）在上市仅两天内，分别吸引了约12亿美元和8.16亿美元的资金涌入，认购热度罕见。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f573982adfe29300fc35149a76cc3cf5\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"464\" tg-height=\"372\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，追踪DRAM主题的相关ETF已成为有史以来增速最快的ETF品类之一，进一步凸显了市场对存储芯片这一细分赛道的高度集中关注。Chris Lucas指出，投资者正在寻求对全球AI复合体中核心价格驱动标的的杠杆敞口，这一趋势与上述产品的爆发式增长高度吻合。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛示警：指数级扩张背后潜藏&#34;混乱平仓&#34;风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管需求端热情高涨，高盛团队已就这一市场结构发出谨慎信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛方面表示，虽然对当前指数级需求不作方向性判断，但明确指出存在多重可能触发&#34;混乱式平仓&#34;的潜在催化因素。杠杆单票ETF因其产品结构特性，在标的资产出现大幅波动时，可能引发集中、快速的强制减仓，进而对标的股票价格形成放大效应。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一位资深交易员对此的表述颇具警示意味<strong>：&#34;这不会有好结局……但对某些交易员而言，提前下车本身就可能是致命的。&#34;</strong>这句话精准描述了当前市场参与者所面临的两难困境——既担忧泡沫破裂的系统性风险，又难以承受过早离场所带来的机会成本压力，而正是这种博弈心理，在客观上持续推高了市场的集中度与脆弱性。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99739df698a9b7136e557922a85fa4b3","relate_stocks":{"EMXC":"iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I","07709":"南方两倍做多海力士","DRAM":"Roundhill Memory ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3773405","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2639515617","content_text":"全球单票杠杆ETF市场正经历一场前所未有的扩张，而AI与存储芯片主题正是这场狂潮的核心驱动力。据高盛顶级交易员Chris Lucas的最新追踪数据，全球杠杆/反向单票ETF资产管理规模已突破600亿美元，自4月初以来规模翻倍，增速之快令市场侧目。在这一浪潮中，一只提供SK海力士两倍做多敞口的ETF已跃升为全球规模最大的杠杆单票ETF，折射出投资者对全球AI及存储芯片主题的高度集中押注。高盛团队对这一指数级需求未作明确的方向性判断，但同时指出存在多重可能引发\"混乱式平仓\"的催化因素。一位资深交易员对此直言：\"这不会有好结局……但对某些交易员而言，提前下车本身就可能是致命的。\"规模1个半月翻倍，美港韩三足鼎立自2022年美国推出单票ETF产品以来，这一市场的体量与覆盖范围持续扩张，但近期的加速尤为显著。据彭博及高盛全球固收与股票部门截至2026年5月27日的数据，全球杠杆/反向单票ETF总规模已超过600亿美元，较4月初不足300亿美元的水平在约一个半月内实现翻倍。从分布来看，美国市场占据约70%份额，规模约460亿美元；香港以约130亿美元位居第二，且在过去两个月内净流入资产高达100亿美元；韩国以约33亿美元排名第三，其首批单票ETF产品本周刚完成上市。三地共同构成了当前全球单票杠杆ETF的主要版图。\"两倍海力士\"登顶，AI存储主题主导资金流向这场资金狂潮的主角，已从传统的美国超大市值科技股悄然转向全球AI产业链中的存储芯片标的。目前全球规模最大的杠杆单票ETF，是一只提供SK海力士（港股代码：7709 HK）两倍多头敞口的产品。与此同时，韩国本周新上市的SK海力士单票ETF（代码：0193T0 KS）和三星电子单票ETF（代码：0193W0 KS）在上市仅两天内，分别吸引了约12亿美元和8.16亿美元的资金涌入，认购热度罕见。此外，追踪DRAM主题的相关ETF已成为有史以来增速最快的ETF品类之一，进一步凸显了市场对存储芯片这一细分赛道的高度集中关注。Chris Lucas指出，投资者正在寻求对全球AI复合体中核心价格驱动标的的杠杆敞口，这一趋势与上述产品的爆发式增长高度吻合。高盛示警：指数级扩张背后潜藏\"混乱平仓\"风险尽管需求端热情高涨，高盛团队已就这一市场结构发出谨慎信号。高盛方面表示，虽然对当前指数级需求不作方向性判断，但明确指出存在多重可能触发\"混乱式平仓\"的潜在催化因素。杠杆单票ETF因其产品结构特性，在标的资产出现大幅波动时，可能引发集中、快速的强制减仓，进而对标的股票价格形成放大效应。一位资深交易员对此的表述颇具警示意味：\"这不会有好结局……但对某些交易员而言，提前下车本身就可能是致命的。\"这句话精准描述了当前市场参与者所面临的两难困境——既担忧泡沫破裂的系统性风险，又难以承受过早离场所带来的机会成本压力，而正是这种博弈心理，在客观上持续推高了市场的集中度与脆弱性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"07709":2,"FDN":1.5,"DRAM":1.5,"EMXC":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":569273674113120,"gmtCreate":1779987030913,"gmtModify":1779990065923,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dbc57387cb7ebd742f490824ec9ef45","width":"960","height":"1563"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/569273674113120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":569269060657832,"gmtCreate":1779985912344,"gmtModify":1779990065382,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4475b29124bfa1f0963304daf78ef94","width":"960","height":"1563"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/569269060657832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":569215649366360,"gmtCreate":1779972868028,"gmtModify":1779974101549,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 纪念一下，冲动满仓被强平永远回不来的4396，没钱买了无奈","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGC2608\">$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$</a> 纪念一下，冲动满仓被强平永远回不来的4396，没钱买了无奈","text":"$微黄金2608(MGC2608)$ 纪念一下，冲动满仓被强平永远回不来的4396，没钱买了无奈","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57445dcaccd7ff080650378286310dd1","width":"960","height":"1563"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/569215649366360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":568122551432768,"gmtCreate":1779723077988,"gmtModify":1779724688731,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GC2608\">$黄金2608(GC2608)$</a> 快下来4600让我上车","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GC2608\">$黄金2608(GC2608)$</a> 快下来4600让我上车","text":"$黄金2608(GC2608)$ 快下来4600让我上车","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/568122551432768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":566838405502640,"gmtCreate":1779422667678,"gmtModify":1779422670278,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"海力士比闪迪好多了，低估多了撤出来买闪迪吗","listText":"海力士比闪迪好多了，低估多了撤出来买闪迪吗","text":"海力士比闪迪好多了，低估多了撤出来买闪迪吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566838405502640","repostId":"2637369962","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2637369962","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1779418766,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2637369962?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-22 10:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"边涨边撤！全球投资者大幅撤离韩国股市，5月已流出220亿","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2637369962","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"数据显示，5月外国投资者已净卖出约220亿美元，或创单月流出历史纪录；年初至今累计抛售达600亿美元。抛售集中于半导体龙头，SK海力士年内遭净卖出约200亿美元。分析称，这种“边涨边撤”的系统性减持，折射出外资对韩国市场前景的深层谨慎。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国股市今年以来表现全球领先，外资却在以创纪录的速度撤离。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">5月21日，据The Kobeissi Letter披露的数据显示，<strong>外国投资者5月迄今已净卖出韩国股票约220亿美元</strong>，若按此节奏持续至月末，将创下单月外资流出规模的历史纪录。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2decb75363331aae95698a60c80a9a60\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"633\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从年初至今来看，海外投资者累计抛售韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）成分股约600亿美元，同样有望刷新年度最大净卖出纪录。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>抛售高度集中于半导体龙头。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>与SK海力士是外资减持的主要标的，其中SK海力士年初至今遭外资卖出约200亿美元，仅5月一个月就达约120亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">自2025年11月以来，<strong>外资在SK海力士的累计净流出规模已达约267亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一资金外流的规模尤为引人关注，原因在于外国投资者在韩国市场举足轻重——其持仓约占KOSPI总市值的39%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析指出，<strong>如此大体量的持续减持，意味着外资正在系统性地压缩对韩国权益资产的敞口，而非仅仅进行结构性调仓。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，上述抛售发生在韩国股市整体表现强劲的背景之下，&#34;边涨边撤&#34;的背离格局，折射出外资对韩国市场前景的深层谨慎情绪。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>边涨边撤！全球投资者大幅撤离韩国股市，5月已流出220亿</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n边涨边撤！全球投资者大幅撤离韩国股市，5月已流出220亿\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-22 10:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国股市今年以来表现全球领先，外资却在以创纪录的速度撤离。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">5月21日，据The Kobeissi Letter披露的数据显示，<strong>外国投资者5月迄今已净卖出韩国股票约220亿美元</strong>，若按此节奏持续至月末，将创下单月外资流出规模的历史纪录。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2decb75363331aae95698a60c80a9a60\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"633\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从年初至今来看，海外投资者累计抛售韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）成分股约600亿美元，同样有望刷新年度最大净卖出纪录。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>抛售高度集中于半导体龙头。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>与SK海力士是外资减持的主要标的，其中SK海力士年初至今遭外资卖出约200亿美元，仅5月一个月就达约120亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">自2025年11月以来，<strong>外资在SK海力士的累计净流出规模已达约267亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一资金外流的规模尤为引人关注，原因在于外国投资者在韩国市场举足轻重——其持仓约占KOSPI总市值的39%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析指出，<strong>如此大体量的持续减持，意味着外资正在系统性地压缩对韩国权益资产的敞口，而非仅仅进行结构性调仓。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，上述抛售发生在韩国股市整体表现强劲的背景之下，&#34;边涨边撤&#34;的背离格局，折射出外资对韩国市场前景的深层谨慎情绪。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ce5aee27c851eb6a7116aa1e3fee780","relate_stocks":{"EEMO":"Invesco S&P Emerging Markets Momentum ETF","FLKR":"Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF","KORU":"3倍做多韩国ETF-Direxion","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4588":"碎股","KDEF":"PLUS Korea Defense Industry Index ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","VEA":"EAFE指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","MKOR":"Matthews Korea Active ETF","07747":"南方两倍做多三星电子","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","07709":"南方两倍做多海力士","EWY":"韩国ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772883","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2637369962","content_text":"韩国股市今年以来表现全球领先，外资却在以创纪录的速度撤离。5月21日，据The Kobeissi Letter披露的数据显示，外国投资者5月迄今已净卖出韩国股票约220亿美元，若按此节奏持续至月末，将创下单月外资流出规模的历史纪录。从年初至今来看，海外投资者累计抛售韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）成分股约600亿美元，同样有望刷新年度最大净卖出纪录。抛售高度集中于半导体龙头。三星电子与SK海力士是外资减持的主要标的，其中SK海力士年初至今遭外资卖出约200亿美元，仅5月一个月就达约120亿美元。自2025年11月以来，外资在SK海力士的累计净流出规模已达约267亿美元。这一资金外流的规模尤为引人关注，原因在于外国投资者在韩国市场举足轻重——其持仓约占KOSPI总市值的39%。分析指出，如此大体量的持续减持，意味着外资正在系统性地压缩对韩国权益资产的敞口，而非仅仅进行结构性调仓。值得注意的是，上述抛售发生在韩国股市整体表现强劲的背景之下，\"边涨边撤\"的背离格局，折射出外资对韩国市场前景的深层谨慎情绪。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWY":2,"EEMO":1.5,"KORU":2,"07709":2.1,"07747":2.1,"VEA":1.5,"KDEF":2,"FLKR":2,"MKOR":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":411089065701816,"gmtCreate":1741397131339,"gmtModify":1741435803229,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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23:04","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"消息人士：伊朗预计将很快提交修订版和平提案","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124107328","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月28日，据知情人士向CNN透露，在美国总统特朗普表示不接受早前版本的提议后，调解进程中的巴基斯坦方面预计将在未来几天内收到伊朗旨在结束战争的一份修订版提议。知情人士称，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在对俄罗斯进行访问后将返回德黑兰，预计他将与该国领导人进行磋商。由于与最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊（其下落保密）沟通存在困难，这一过程进展缓慢。特朗普此前已表示，他不会接受伊朗上周末提交的那个版本——该版本提议先结束战争，而将与伊朗核计划相关的棘手问题留到后续阶段解决。知情人士表示，这一进程仍在推进中，且充满变数，很大程度上取决于伊朗是否会提出一份美方更能接受的修订版提议。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月28日，据知情人士向CNN透露，在美国总统特朗普表示不接受早前版本的提议后，调解进程中的巴基斯坦方面预计将在未来几天内收到伊朗旨在结束战争的一份修订版提议。知情人士称，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在对俄罗斯进行访问后将返回德黑兰，预计他将与该国领导人进行磋商。由于与最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊（其下落保密）沟通存在困难，这一过程进展缓慢。特朗普此前已表示，他不会接受伊朗上周末提交的那个版本——该版本提议先结束战争，而将与伊朗核计划相关的棘手问题留到后续阶段解决。知情人士表示，这一进程仍在推进中，且充满变数，很大程度上取决于伊朗是否会提出一份美方更能接受的修订版提议。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n消息人士：伊朗预计将很快提交修订版和平提案\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-28 23:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月28日，据知情人士向CNN透露，在美国总统特朗普表示不接受早前版本的提议后，调解进程中的巴基斯坦方面预计将在未来几天内收到伊朗旨在结束战争的一份修订版提议。知情人士称，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在对俄罗斯进行访问后将返回德黑兰，预计他将与该国领导人进行磋商。由于与最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊（其下落保密）沟通存在困难，这一过程进展缓慢。特朗普此前已表示，他不会接受伊朗上周末提交的那个版本——该版本提议先结束战争，而将与伊朗核计划相关的棘手问题留到后续阶段解决。知情人士表示，这一进程仍在推进中，且充满变数，很大程度上取决于伊朗是否会提出一份美方更能接受的修订版提议。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/722d11bf4969293456955d43d37c93bd","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124107328","content_text":"4月28日，据知情人士向CNN透露，在美国总统特朗普表示不接受早前版本的提议后，调解进程中的巴基斯坦方面预计将在未来几天内收到伊朗旨在结束战争的一份修订版提议。知情人士称，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在对俄罗斯进行访问后将返回德黑兰，预计他将与该国领导人进行磋商。由于与最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊（其下落保密）沟通存在困难，这一过程进展缓慢。特朗普此前已表示，他不会接受伊朗上周末提交的那个版本——该版本提议先结束战争，而将与伊朗核计划相关的棘手问题留到后续阶段解决。知情人士表示，这一进程仍在推进中，且充满变数，很大程度上取决于伊朗是否会提出一份美方更能接受的修订版提议。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":558466148693904,"gmtCreate":1777376051205,"gmtModify":1777376053988,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"意思是看好自己的股票了？不要利息都赎回","listText":"意思是看好自己的股票了？不要利息都赎回","text":"意思是看好自己的股票了？不要利息都赎回","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/558466148693904","repostId":"1132841794","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1132841794","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1777375742,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132841794?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-28 19:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美团：提前赎回本金14.814亿美元的2028年债券","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132841794","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月28日，$美团(MPNGY)$公告，根据于2028年到期的零息可换股债券的条款及条件，公司于4月27日按未偿还本金金额的101.28%赎回该持有人的全部或部分2028年债券。截至本公告日期，本公司已收到赎回本金总额为14.814亿美元的2028年债券的赎回通知，且该提早赎回已完成。紧随提早赎回后，本金总额为18,600,000美元的2028年债券将仍然尚未偿还。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月28日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>公告，根据于2028年到期的零息可换股债券的条款及条件，公司于4月27日按未偿还本金金额的101.28%赎回该持有人的全部或部分2028年债券。截至本公告日期，本公司已收到赎回本金总额为14.814亿美元的2028年债券的赎回通知，且该提早赎回已完成。紧随提早赎回后，本金总额为18,600,000美元的2028年债券将仍然尚未偿还。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1e58447babb409a21b6a11d2001bcaa\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"834\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美团：提前赎回本金14.814亿美元的2028年债券\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-28 19:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月28日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>公告，根据于2028年到期的零息可换股债券的条款及条件，公司于4月27日按未偿还本金金额的101.28%赎回该持有人的全部或部分2028年债券。截至本公告日期，本公司已收到赎回本金总额为14.814亿美元的2028年债券的赎回通知，且该提早赎回已完成。紧随提早赎回后，本金总额为18,600,000美元的2028年债券将仍然尚未偿还。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1e58447babb409a21b6a11d2001bcaa\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"834\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1238455e09ac8d1135014cb37eb0f4d","relate_stocks":{"LU0873338254.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA GROWTH & INCOME EQUITIE \"I\" (USD) INC","BK1575":"同股不同权","LU0577902538.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Growth and Income 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MCL2606\">$微型WTI原油2606(MCL2606)$</a> 这个波动真是够大，要赚钱经历的回撤也不小，才能换取盈利前进那么点","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MCL2606\">$微型WTI原油2606(MCL2606)$</a> 这个波动真是够大，要赚钱经历的回撤也不小，才能换取盈利前进那么点","text":"$微型WTI原油2606(MCL2606)$ 这个波动真是够大，要赚钱经历的回撤也不小，才能换取盈利前进那么点","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8453e3e6a2acc52e2d5d5d36a6359122","width":"960","height":"1563"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/559568594855752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":410283162026032,"gmtCreate":1741176441368,"gmtModify":1741176445381,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"哪位高手解答一下这账上要留多少钱？要换成美元吗","listText":"哪位高手解答一下这账上要留多少钱？要换成美元吗","text":"哪位高手解答一下这账上要留多少钱？要换成美元吗","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d6fd3e740c375575f1caba1d2d4f5c8"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/410283162026032","repostId":"1161530603","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161530603","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1741169942,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161530603?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-03-05 18:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权女巫 | 特斯拉多空博弈激烈！可用这两种期权策略进行应对","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161530603","media":"期权女巫","summary":"近期 $特斯拉$ 股价震荡走低，投资者权衡关税压力、中国区销售数据疲软以及\"买家罢工\"对这家电动车巨头的影响。不过，特朗普表态拟对美产汽车贷款利息实施税收抵免为特斯拉带来利好。以下对特斯拉股票的多空前景及相关期权策略进行了深入分析。受此提振，特斯拉盘前交易涨逾2%。衍生品交易具有高风险，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">近期 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> 股价震荡走低，投资者权衡关税压力、中国区销售数据疲软以及&#34;买家罢工&#34;对这家电动车巨头的影响。不过，特朗普表态拟对美产汽车贷款利息实施税收抵免为特斯拉带来利好。以下对特斯拉股票的多空前景及相关期权策略进行了深入分析。</p><h2 id=\"id_2960037794\">一、看涨逻辑</h2><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p>特朗普力推汽车贷款利息抵税新政</p><p>特朗普在最新演讲中提出一揽子减税计划：&#34;我呼吁取消小费税、加班税和社会保障福利税。&#34;更引发市场关注的是，他计划为美国本土生产汽车的贷款利息提供税收优惠，誓言&#34;彻底激活汽车产业&#34;。受此提振，特斯拉盘前交易涨逾2%。</p></li><li><p>多重优惠刺激需求回暖</p></li></ol><p>面对2025年一季度销售放缓压力，特斯拉祭出组合拳：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>2月28日后购买Foundation系列Cybertruck电动皮卡可享终身免费超充</p></li><li><p>Model 3提供0首付0利率金融方案</p></li><li><p>老款Model Y清仓折扣<br/>虽然促销手段折射需求不及预期，但投资者将其解读为积极信号，周三盘前大涨显示市场看好二季度销售复苏。</p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_1406604143\">看涨期权策略：看涨期权牛市价差组合</h3><p><strong>结构</strong>：</p><p>‌‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSELLLA 20250314 265.0 CALL BUY 1 | TSELLLA 20250314 275.0 CALL SELL 1\" title=\"$TSLA 跨價 250314 265C/275C$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TSLA 跨價 250314 265C/275C$  </a>‌</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>买入行权价为265美元的看涨期权（3月14日到期）</p></li><li><p>卖出行权价为275美元的看涨期权（3月14日到期）</p></li><li><p>最大收益：464美元</p></li><li><p>盈亏平衡点：270.36美元</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de4603e1267b3e3a988c9f481d3a6681\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1419\"/></p><p><br/><strong>逻辑：</strong>在风险可控的前提下押注股价上涨至分析师一致目标价（335.98美元）。</p><h2 id=\"id_2293261659\">二、看空逻辑</h2><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p>多地市场销量滑坡</p></li></ol><ul style=\"\"><li><p>法国市场2月销量同比暴跌26%</p></li><li><p>特斯拉2月在华销量（含出口）仅3.06万辆，同比锐减49%</p></li><li><p>特斯拉在美国、欧洲和中国三大市场均表现疲软，三地销量同比均下滑。</p></li></ul><ol start=\"2\" style=\"\"><li><p>&#34;买家罢工&#34;现象发酵</p><p>摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯在周一报告中称，销售疲软反映了“买家罢工”现象——CEO埃隆·马斯克日益政治化的行为疏远了特斯拉的核心客户群（倾向环保的左翼消费者）。</p></li></ol><h3 id=\"id_115199486\">看跌期权策略：看跌期权熊市价差组合</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>结构：</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSELLLA 20250314 265.0 PUT SELL 1 | TSELLLA 20250314 275.0 PUT BUY 1\" title=\"$TSLA 跨價 250314 265P/275P$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TSLA 跨價 250314 265P/275P$  </a>‌</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: start;\">买入行权价为275美元的看跌期权（3月14日到期）</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: start;\">卖出行权价为265美元的看跌期权（3月14日到期）</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: start;\">最大收益：474.5美元</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: start;\">盈亏平衡点：270.26美元</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc9ee5d8a35cc4ebd2746f73cff6b509\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1385\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">逻辑：对冲资金净流出（5日2.7亿美元）背景下测试262.84美元支撑位的下行风险</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">注：本文内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。衍生品交易具有高风险，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权女巫 | 特斯拉多空博弈激烈！可用这两种期权策略进行应对</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权女巫 | 特斯拉多空博弈激烈！可用这两种期权策略进行应对\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-03-05 18:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">近期 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> 股价震荡走低，投资者权衡关税压力、中国区销售数据疲软以及&#34;买家罢工&#34;对这家电动车巨头的影响。不过，特朗普表态拟对美产汽车贷款利息实施税收抵免为特斯拉带来利好。以下对特斯拉股票的多空前景及相关期权策略进行了深入分析。</p><h2 id=\"id_2960037794\">一、看涨逻辑</h2><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p>特朗普力推汽车贷款利息抵税新政</p><p>特朗普在最新演讲中提出一揽子减税计划：&#34;我呼吁取消小费税、加班税和社会保障福利税。&#34;更引发市场关注的是，他计划为美国本土生产汽车的贷款利息提供税收优惠，誓言&#34;彻底激活汽车产业&#34;。受此提振，特斯拉盘前交易涨逾2%。</p></li><li><p>多重优惠刺激需求回暖</p></li></ol><p>面对2025年一季度销售放缓压力，特斯拉祭出组合拳：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>2月28日后购买Foundation系列Cybertruck电动皮卡可享终身免费超充</p></li><li><p>Model 3提供0首付0利率金融方案</p></li><li><p>老款Model Y清仓折扣<br/>虽然促销手段折射需求不及预期，但投资者将其解读为积极信号，周三盘前大涨显示市场看好二季度销售复苏。</p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_1406604143\">看涨期权策略：看涨期权牛市价差组合</h3><p><strong>结构</strong>：</p><p>‌‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSELLLA 20250314 265.0 CALL BUY 1 | TSELLLA 20250314 275.0 CALL SELL 1\" title=\"$TSLA 跨價 250314 265C/275C$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TSLA 跨價 250314 265C/275C$  </a>‌</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>买入行权价为265美元的看涨期权（3月14日到期）</p></li><li><p>卖出行权价为275美元的看涨期权（3月14日到期）</p></li><li><p>最大收益：464美元</p></li><li><p>盈亏平衡点：270.36美元</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de4603e1267b3e3a988c9f481d3a6681\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1419\"/></p><p><br/><strong>逻辑：</strong>在风险可控的前提下押注股价上涨至分析师一致目标价（335.98美元）。</p><h2 id=\"id_2293261659\">二、看空逻辑</h2><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p>多地市场销量滑坡</p></li></ol><ul style=\"\"><li><p>法国市场2月销量同比暴跌26%</p></li><li><p>特斯拉2月在华销量（含出口）仅3.06万辆，同比锐减49%</p></li><li><p>特斯拉在美国、欧洲和中国三大市场均表现疲软，三地销量同比均下滑。</p></li></ul><ol start=\"2\" style=\"\"><li><p>&#34;买家罢工&#34;现象发酵</p><p>摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯在周一报告中称，销售疲软反映了“买家罢工”现象——CEO埃隆·马斯克日益政治化的行为疏远了特斯拉的核心客户群（倾向环保的左翼消费者）。</p></li></ol><h3 id=\"id_115199486\">看跌期权策略：看跌期权熊市价差组合</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>结构：</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSELLLA 20250314 265.0 PUT SELL 1 | TSELLLA 20250314 275.0 PUT BUY 1\" title=\"$TSLA 跨價 250314 265P/275P$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TSLA 跨價 250314 265P/275P$  </a>‌</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: start;\">买入行权价为275美元的看跌期权（3月14日到期）</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: start;\">卖出行权价为265美元的看跌期权（3月14日到期）</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: start;\">最大收益：474.5美元</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: start;\">盈亏平衡点：270.26美元</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc9ee5d8a35cc4ebd2746f73cff6b509\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1385\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">逻辑：对冲资金净流出（5日2.7亿美元）背景下测试262.84美元支撑位的下行风险</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">注：本文内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。衍生品交易具有高风险，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/775d1226e1a74151383a7d012e179b82","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161530603","content_text":"近期 特斯拉 股价震荡走低，投资者权衡关税压力、中国区销售数据疲软以及\"买家罢工\"对这家电动车巨头的影响。不过，特朗普表态拟对美产汽车贷款利息实施税收抵免为特斯拉带来利好。以下对特斯拉股票的多空前景及相关期权策略进行了深入分析。一、看涨逻辑特朗普力推汽车贷款利息抵税新政特朗普在最新演讲中提出一揽子减税计划：\"我呼吁取消小费税、加班税和社会保障福利税。\"更引发市场关注的是，他计划为美国本土生产汽车的贷款利息提供税收优惠，誓言\"彻底激活汽车产业\"。受此提振，特斯拉盘前交易涨逾2%。多重优惠刺激需求回暖面对2025年一季度销售放缓压力，特斯拉祭出组合拳：2月28日后购买Foundation系列Cybertruck电动皮卡可享终身免费超充Model 3提供0首付0利率金融方案老款Model Y清仓折扣虽然促销手段折射需求不及预期，但投资者将其解读为积极信号，周三盘前大涨显示市场看好二季度销售复苏。看涨期权策略：看涨期权牛市价差组合结构：‌‌$TSLA 跨價 250314 265C/275C$  ‌买入行权价为265美元的看涨期权（3月14日到期）卖出行权价为275美元的看涨期权（3月14日到期）最大收益：464美元盈亏平衡点：270.36美元逻辑：在风险可控的前提下押注股价上涨至分析师一致目标价（335.98美元）。二、看空逻辑多地市场销量滑坡法国市场2月销量同比暴跌26%特斯拉2月在华销量（含出口）仅3.06万辆，同比锐减49%特斯拉在美国、欧洲和中国三大市场均表现疲软，三地销量同比均下滑。\"买家罢工\"现象发酵摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯在周一报告中称，销售疲软反映了“买家罢工”现象——CEO埃隆·马斯克日益政治化的行为疏远了特斯拉的核心客户群（倾向环保的左翼消费者）。看跌期权策略：看跌期权熊市价差组合结构：$TSLA 跨價 250314 265P/275P$  ‌买入行权价为275美元的看跌期权（3月14日到期）卖出行权价为265美元的看跌期权（3月14日到期）最大收益：474.5美元盈亏平衡点：270.26美元逻辑：对冲资金净流出（5日2.7亿美元）背景下测试262.84美元支撑位的下行风险注：本文内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。衍生品交易具有高风险，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4106371827704990","authorId":"4106371827704990","name":"天上冲蜗牛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a79e1b5e3ff9e7fde1e71e851c611977","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4106371827704990","authorIdStr":"4106371827704990"},"content":"sell put 吗？","text":"sell put 吗？","html":"sell put 吗？"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":507108009681600,"gmtCreate":1764836273803,"gmtModify":1764836275779,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$</a> 这只到底啥原因跌又啥原因涨起来了？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$</a> 这只到底啥原因跌又啥原因涨起来了？","text":"$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ 这只到底啥原因跌又啥原因涨起来了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507108009681600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":437188372468592,"gmtCreate":1747748090072,"gmtModify":1747748091527,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 等下来了再吹牛吧，这么高吹个啥","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 等下来了再吹牛吧，这么高吹个啥","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 等下来了再吹牛吧，这么高吹个啥","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/437188372468592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4135341184423600","authorId":"4135341184423600","name":"kasea","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ad72ac8f825be1aa2282fb4a810bf9","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4135341184423600","authorIdStr":"4135341184423600"},"content":"暂时下不来了。老马说了未来五年继续任职","text":"暂时下不来了。老马说了未来五年继续任职","html":"暂时下不来了。老马说了未来五年继续任职"},{"author":{"id":"3441623812793451","authorId":"3441623812793451","name":"牛牛 股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26f5f82adcebf9af1a2da214a2dcf7c9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3441623812793451","authorIdStr":"3441623812793451"},"content":"下来了又上不去了[流泪]","text":"下来了又上不去了[流泪]","html":"下来了又上不去了[流泪]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561712178025440,"gmtCreate":1778168462562,"gmtModify":1778168474606,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">$高通(QCOM)$&nbsp;</a> 只想说，168的高通没有珍惜至少曾经拥有过","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">$高通(QCOM)$&nbsp;</a> 只想说，168的高通没有珍惜至少曾经拥有过","text":"$高通(QCOM)$ 只想说，168的高通没有珍惜至少曾经拥有过","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f4c0c226c41cde4a3cb0fd5004df76c","width":"960","height":"1563"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561712178025440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"content":"168买了又卖了，补黄金保证金，还是吃了资金少的亏啊","text":"168买了又卖了，补黄金保证金，还是吃了资金少的亏啊","html":"168买了又卖了，补黄金保证金，还是吃了资金少的亏啊"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":544389209834520,"gmtCreate":1773933020838,"gmtModify":1773933033254,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/1OZ2604\">$1盎司黄金2604(1OZ2604)$</a> 造孽啊，涨跌都超出预料","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/1OZ2604\">$1盎司黄金2604(1OZ2604)$</a> 造孽啊，涨跌都超出预料","text":"$1盎司黄金2604(1OZ2604)$ 造孽啊，涨跌都超出预料","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6915e3a0487541057b1621ac803498","width":"960","height":"1563"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544389209834520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4131409357956500","authorId":"4131409357956500","name":"ruan_7128","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ad7f9c1716c3dead55c9cc240346dcb","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4131409357956500","authorIdStr":"4131409357956500"},"content":"我也一样遭受重创！","text":"我也一样遭受重创！","html":"我也一样遭受重创！"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":507113599598944,"gmtCreate":1764837628680,"gmtModify":1764837631853,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3472731775828650\">@不吃鱼尾的</a>:开盘甚至还从-5拉到-3呢怎么晓得要跌成这个💩样//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3472731775828650\">@不吃鱼尾的</a>:手速没跟上 手速快因该能亏提两个点走人","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3472731775828650\">@不吃鱼尾的</a>:开盘甚至还从-5拉到-3呢怎么晓得要跌成这个💩样//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3472731775828650\">@不吃鱼尾的</a>:手速没跟上 手速快因该能亏提两个点走人","text":"Replying to @不吃鱼尾的:开盘甚至还从-5拉到-3呢怎么晓得要跌成这个💩样//@不吃鱼尾的:手速没跟上 手速快因该能亏提两个点走人","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507113599598944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000197","authorId":"9000000000000197","name":"ScottGonzales","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cf11fbf7e9cf7863269c430ae07d7c9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000197","authorIdStr":"9000000000000197"},"content":"手速跟不上是真的痛苦，下次挂单提前设好吧😭","text":"手速跟不上是真的痛苦，下次挂单提前设好吧😭","html":"手速跟不上是真的痛苦，下次挂单提前设好吧😭"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}