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Why US Economic Conditions Are 'Just Right' For The Stock Market Rally To Continue<blockquote>为什么美国经济状况“刚刚好”股市继续上涨</blockquote>

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remains well above historical norms, but there’s also a growing concern that GDP growth could disappoint and corporate earnings and guidance will start showing signs of peaking.</p><p><blockquote>进入第三季度，通胀率仍远高于历史正常水平，但人们也越来越担心国内生产总值增长可能令人失望，企业盈利和指引将开始出现见顶迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Economic Sweet Spot:</b>On Tuesday, the Labor Department reported the consumer price index increased 5.4% in the month of June, its largest gain in nearly 13 years. However, the Federal Reserve has said elevated inflation levels will be “transitory” as the economy reopens to full capacity following the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济甜蜜点：</b>周二，美国劳工部报告称，6月份消费者价格指数上涨5.4%，创近13年来最大涨幅。不过，美联储表示，随着大流行病过后经济重新满负荷运转，通胀水平的上升将是 “暂时的”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bank of America analyst Jared Woodard believes the U.S. economy is in a sweet spot of bullish equity market momentum, rising employment, and a favorable credit market that will keep stocks rising in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国银行分析师贾里德·伍达德 (Jared Woodard) 认为，美国经济正处于股市看涨势头、就业增长和有利的信贷市场的最佳状态，这将使股市在下半年继续上涨。</b></blockquote></p><p> “We see ‘just right’ conditions for equities &amp; credit given consumer strength, credit market dry powder, and easy policy,” Woodard wrote in a note.</p><p><blockquote>“伍达德在一份报告中写道：”鉴于消费者的强劲、信贷市场的干粉和宽松的政策，我们认为股票和信贷的条件'恰到好处'。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bullish Catalysts:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>看涨催化剂：</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S. banks have massive balance sheets, which was recently confirmed by the annual stress tests. Woodard said that dry powder can help facilitate productivity growth once the new capex cycle begins in the second half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行拥有庞大的资产负债表，最近的年度压力测试证实了这一点。伍达德表示，一旦下半年新的资本支出周期开始，干粉可以帮助促进生产率增长。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, Woodard said the outlook for central bank and political policies is favorable heading into the second half of the year. The infrastructure spending bill is likely already priced into the market at this point, and it’s not too large to contribute to excess stimulus hyperinflation concerns. In addition, the Fed isn't expected to raise interest rates until 2023, so fears over rising rates will likely not hold back stock prices in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>最后，伍达德表示，进入下半年，央行和政治政策的前景是有利的。基础设施支出法案很可能已经在市场上定价，而且规模还不至于太大，不足以引发对过度刺激恶性通货膨胀的担忧。此外，美联储预计要到 2023 年才会加息，因此对加息的担忧在短期内可能不会抑制股价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Benzinga’s Take:</b>The<b>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</b>(NYSE:SPY) has generated a 99.8% total return since the market hit its pandemic bottom on March 23, 2020. The stock market is clearly pricing in some extremely high recovery expectations, but given more than $6 trillion in stimulus measures, extremely easy year-over-year comps and no major obstacles on the horizon, the S&amp;P 500 appears well-positioned to continue its bullish momentum in the third quarter and beyond.</p><p><blockquote><b>Benzinga 的观点：</b>这个<b>SPDR标普500 ETF信托</b>自 2020 年 3 月 23 日市场触及大流行底部以来，（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SPY）已产生 99.8% 的总回报率。股市显然对一些极高的复苏预期进行了定价，但考虑到超过 6 万亿美元的刺激措施、极其轻松的同比竞争以及地平线上没有重大障碍，标普500似乎处于有利地位，可以在第三季度及以后继续保持看涨势头。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why US Economic Conditions Are 'Just Right' For The Stock Market Rally To Continue<blockquote>为什么美国经济状况“刚刚好”股市继续上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy US Economic Conditions Are 'Just Right' For The Stock Market Rally To Continue<blockquote>为什么美国经济状况“刚刚好”股市继续上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-14 12:04</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the second quarter, two of the biggest fears among investors were that wage growth and inflation would run too hot.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，投资者最大的两个担忧是工资增长和通胀过热。</blockquote></p><p> Heading into the third quarter, inflation remains well above historical norms, but there’s also a growing concern that GDP growth could disappoint and corporate earnings and guidance will start showing signs of peaking.</p><p><blockquote>进入第三季度，通胀率仍远高于历史正常水平，但人们也越来越担心国内生产总值增长可能令人失望，企业盈利和指引将开始出现见顶迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Economic Sweet Spot:</b>On Tuesday, the Labor Department reported the consumer price index increased 5.4% in the month of June, its largest gain in nearly 13 years. However, the Federal Reserve has said elevated inflation levels will be “transitory” as the economy reopens to full capacity following the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济甜蜜点：</b>周二，美国劳工部报告称，6月份消费者价格指数上涨5.4%，创近13年来最大涨幅。不过，美联储表示，随着大流行病过后经济重新满负荷运转，通胀水平的上升将是 “暂时的”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bank of America analyst Jared Woodard believes the U.S. economy is in a sweet spot of bullish equity market momentum, rising employment, and a favorable credit market that will keep stocks rising in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国银行分析师贾里德·伍达德 (Jared Woodard) 认为，美国经济正处于股市看涨势头、就业增长和有利的信贷市场的最佳状态，这将使股市在下半年继续上涨。</b></blockquote></p><p> “We see ‘just right’ conditions for equities &amp; credit given consumer strength, credit market dry powder, and easy policy,” Woodard wrote in a note.</p><p><blockquote>“伍达德在一份报告中写道：”鉴于消费者的强劲、信贷市场的干粉和宽松的政策，我们认为股票和信贷的条件'恰到好处'。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bullish Catalysts:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>看涨催化剂：</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S. banks have massive balance sheets, which was recently confirmed by the annual stress tests. Woodard said that dry powder can help facilitate productivity growth once the new capex cycle begins in the second half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行拥有庞大的资产负债表，最近的年度压力测试证实了这一点。伍达德表示，一旦下半年新的资本支出周期开始，干粉可以帮助促进生产率增长。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, Woodard said the outlook for central bank and political policies is favorable heading into the second half of the year. The infrastructure spending bill is likely already priced into the market at this point, and it’s not too large to contribute to excess stimulus hyperinflation concerns. In addition, the Fed isn't expected to raise interest rates until 2023, so fears over rising rates will likely not hold back stock prices in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>最后，伍达德表示，进入下半年，央行和政治政策的前景是有利的。基础设施支出法案很可能已经在市场上定价，而且规模还不至于太大，不足以引发对过度刺激恶性通货膨胀的担忧。此外，美联储预计要到 2023 年才会加息，因此对加息的担忧在短期内可能不会抑制股价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Benzinga’s Take:</b>The<b>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</b>(NYSE:SPY) has generated a 99.8% total return since the market hit its pandemic bottom on March 23, 2020. The stock market is clearly pricing in some extremely high recovery expectations, but given more than $6 trillion in stimulus measures, extremely easy year-over-year comps and no major obstacles on the horizon, the S&amp;P 500 appears well-positioned to continue its bullish momentum in the third quarter and beyond.</p><p><blockquote><b>Benzinga 的观点：</b>这个<b>SPDR标普500 ETF信托</b>自 2020 年 3 月 23 日市场触及大流行底部以来，（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SPY）已产生 99.8% 的总回报率。股市显然对一些极高的复苏预期进行了定价，但考虑到超过 6 万亿美元的刺激措施、极其轻松的同比竞争以及地平线上没有重大障碍，标普500似乎处于有利地位，可以在第三季度及以后继续保持看涨势头。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112852623","content_text":"In the second quarter, two of the biggest fears among investors were that wage growth and inflation would run too hot.\nHeading into the third quarter, inflation remains well above historical norms, but there’s also a growing concern that GDP growth could disappoint and corporate earnings and guidance will start showing signs of peaking.\nEconomic Sweet Spot:On Tuesday, the Labor Department reported the consumer price index increased 5.4% in the month of June, its largest gain in nearly 13 years. However, the Federal Reserve has said elevated inflation levels will be “transitory” as the economy reopens to full capacity following the pandemic.\nBank of America analyst Jared Woodard believes the U.S. economy is in a sweet spot of bullish equity market momentum, rising employment, and a favorable credit market that will keep stocks rising in the second half of the year.\n“We see ‘just right’ conditions for equities & credit given consumer strength, credit market dry powder, and easy policy,” Woodard wrote in a note.\nBullish Catalysts:\nU.S. banks have massive balance sheets, which was recently confirmed by the annual stress tests. Woodard said that dry powder can help facilitate productivity growth once the new capex cycle begins in the second half of the year.\nFinally, Woodard said the outlook for central bank and political policies is favorable heading into the second half of the year. The infrastructure spending bill is likely already priced into the market at this point, and it’s not too large to contribute to excess stimulus hyperinflation concerns. In addition, the Fed isn't expected to raise interest rates until 2023, so fears over rising rates will likely not hold back stock prices in the near term.\nBenzinga’s Take:TheSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(NYSE:SPY) has generated a 99.8% total return since the market hit its pandemic bottom on March 23, 2020. The stock market is clearly pricing in some extremely high recovery expectations, but given more than $6 trillion in stimulus measures, extremely easy year-over-year comps and no major obstacles on the horizon, the S&P 500 appears well-positioned to continue its bullish momentum in the third quarter and beyond.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120265468,"gmtCreate":1624325136354,"gmtModify":1631892618491,"author":{"id":"3560455691922594","authorId":"3560455691922594","name":"Agro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e95fbee96b2819a67db33a0a557e3bd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560455691922594","authorIdStr":"3560455691922594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pltr go","listText":"Pltr go","text":"Pltr 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pls","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6e34497b75aab636d4c5df47d7bb6e0","width":"1125","height":"2976"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354343307","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379330007,"gmtCreate":1618669815309,"gmtModify":1634291472852,"author":{"id":"3560455691922594","authorId":"3560455691922594","name":"Agro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e95fbee96b2819a67db33a0a557e3bd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560455691922594","authorIdStr":"3560455691922594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Test","listText":"Test","text":"Test","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379330007","repostId":"1175692875","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175692875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618582708,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175692875?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440 亿美元的期权今天到期：以下是将会发生的变化</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175692875","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire","content":"<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><blockquote>虽然今天不是四倍（甚至三倍）魔法日，但今天有很多每周期权将到期，其中五个将毫无价值，而其他期权将为基础价格提供支撑“大头针”。这就是为什么，尽管我们正在享受一个美丽的春季周，但高盛指出，单一股票期权交易活动相对于历史水平有所上升。也就是说，4 月份每日期权交易量较 3 月 30 日年初以来 24 亿美元的低点增长了 70%。</blockquote></p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p><blockquote><b>总共有 5,440 亿美元的单只股票期权将于今天到期，其中包括 3,050 亿美元的评级。</b>因此，今天的到期日对于持有大量现值（ATM）期权未平仓合约的股票来说可能非常重要，因为做市商将积极对冲其异常庞大的期权投资组合。这种流动可能会抑制某些股票的波动性，同时加剧其他股票的股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>How to trade this?</p><p><blockquote>这个怎么交易？</blockquote></p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛的 Vishal Vivek 所写，在重大到期日，期权交易者会跟踪以下情况：<b>大量未平仓合约将到期。</b>在平价行权（行权价格等于或非常接近当前股价）中有大量到期未平仓合约的情况下，三角洲对冲活动可能会影响标的股票当天的交易。如果做市商或其他对冲其头寸的期权交易者是净多头 ATM 期权，则与到期相关的流动可能会产生抑制股价变动的效果，导致股价以大量未平仓合约结算在罢工点附近。这种情况通常被称为“pin”，对于试图进入/退出股票头寸的大投资者来说，这是一种理想的情况。或者，如果delta-hedgers是净空头ATM期权（具有“负伽马”头寸），他们的对冲活动可能会加剧股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着与到期相关的交易可能会导致拥有大量 ATM 未平仓合约的股票的交易活动大幅回升。</blockquote></p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，为了帮助希望抓住日内交易机会的交易者，这里有一个表格，确定了今天到期的大量 ATM 未平仓合约的可能重点股票，并与标的股票的日均交易量进行了比较。正如高盛所说，“<i>如果未平仓合约在股票成交量中占很大比例，那么与到期相关的活动可能会产生更大的影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p><blockquote>最后，值得一提的是，今天早上我们在 SpotGamma 的朋友们写道，这是一个相当奇怪的运营支出周期，“持续的、近乎机械的出价推动市场走高。我们以前从未见过看涨期权墙像这样 “突破 ”过很多次，但我们在之前的笔记中提到过其他异常现象，比如净看跌期权销售。我们对此有一些理论，并将在一篇较长的文章中发布”。</blockquote></p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据SG的说法，由于隐含波动性现在已经被压缩（即VIX在新低），现在有更大的潜力出现“长期”波动性。回想一下，最近市场的任何急剧、剧烈下跌是如何被如此迅速地买入的（见下图）。<b>这些突破下跌与创纪录的 VIX 峰值同时发生，但反思性的snap回购将带来与 VIX（即隐含波动率）逆转同等强度的市场复苏。</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma 的另一个奇怪观察结果：</blockquote></p><p>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p><p><blockquote>当隐含波动性非常高时，它对市场走势非常敏感，也表明市场预计未来会有更大的波动。一旦市场暂停或触及支撑位，隐含的波动性就会迅速回落。<b>我们经常想到这个类比，如果鲨鱼停止游泳，它就会下沉（部分正确!）.如果市场停止下跌，那么隐含的波动性就会下降。</b>因此，正如我们经常谈论的那样，较低的隐含波动率（即较低的VIX）表明做市商必须回购推动反弹的空头对冲。SG 的结论： 目前较低的隐含波动率水平为市场提供了更多的下行火力。从较低的隐含波动率开始，“减缓”了这种反应灵敏的 “snap回调 ”买入机制。此外，当 IV 较低时，伽马值较高，因此伽马翻转可能会有更多的作用。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440 亿美元的期权今天到期：以下是将会发生的变化</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440 亿美元的期权今天到期：以下是将会发生的变化</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-16 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><blockquote>虽然今天不是四倍（甚至三倍）魔法日，但今天有很多每周期权将到期，其中五个将毫无价值，而其他期权将为基础价格提供支撑“大头针”。这就是为什么，尽管我们正在享受一个美丽的春季周，但高盛指出，单一股票期权交易活动相对于历史水平有所上升。也就是说，4 月份每日期权交易量较 3 月 30 日年初以来 24 亿美元的低点增长了 70%。</blockquote></p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p><blockquote><b>总共有 5,440 亿美元的单只股票期权将于今天到期，其中包括 3,050 亿美元的评级。</b>因此，今天的到期日对于持有大量现值（ATM）期权未平仓合约的股票来说可能非常重要，因为做市商将积极对冲其异常庞大的期权投资组合。这种流动可能会抑制某些股票的波动性，同时加剧其他股票的股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>How to trade this?</p><p><blockquote>这个怎么交易？</blockquote></p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛的 Vishal Vivek 所写，在重大到期日，期权交易者会跟踪以下情况：<b>大量未平仓合约将到期。</b>在平价行权（行权价格等于或非常接近当前股价）中有大量到期未平仓合约的情况下，三角洲对冲活动可能会影响标的股票当天的交易。如果做市商或其他对冲其头寸的期权交易者是净多头 ATM 期权，则与到期相关的流动可能会产生抑制股价变动的效果，导致股价以大量未平仓合约结算在罢工点附近。这种情况通常被称为“pin”，对于试图进入/退出股票头寸的大投资者来说，这是一种理想的情况。或者，如果delta-hedgers是净空头ATM期权（具有“负伽马”头寸），他们的对冲活动可能会加剧股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着与到期相关的交易可能会导致拥有大量 ATM 未平仓合约的股票的交易活动大幅回升。</blockquote></p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，为了帮助希望抓住日内交易机会的交易者，这里有一个表格，确定了今天到期的大量 ATM 未平仓合约的可能重点股票，并与标的股票的日均交易量进行了比较。正如高盛所说，“<i>如果未平仓合约在股票成交量中占很大比例，那么与到期相关的活动可能会产生更大的影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p><blockquote>最后，值得一提的是，今天早上我们在 SpotGamma 的朋友们写道，这是一个相当奇怪的运营支出周期，“持续的、近乎机械的出价推动市场走高。我们以前从未见过看涨期权墙像这样 “突破 ”过很多次，但我们在之前的笔记中提到过其他异常现象，比如净看跌期权销售。我们对此有一些理论，并将在一篇较长的文章中发布”。</blockquote></p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据SG的说法，由于隐含波动性现在已经被压缩（即VIX在新低），现在有更大的潜力出现“长期”波动性。回想一下，最近市场的任何急剧、剧烈下跌是如何被如此迅速地买入的（见下图）。<b>这些突破下跌与创纪录的 VIX 峰值同时发生，但反思性的snap回购将带来与 VIX（即隐含波动率）逆转同等强度的市场复苏。</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma 的另一个奇怪观察结果：</blockquote></p><p>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p><p><blockquote>当隐含波动性非常高时，它对市场走势非常敏感，也表明市场预计未来会有更大的波动。一旦市场暂停或触及支撑位，隐含的波动性就会迅速回落。<b>我们经常想到这个类比，如果鲨鱼停止游泳，它就会下沉（部分正确!）.如果市场停止下跌，那么隐含的波动性就会下降。</b>因此，正如我们经常谈论的那样，较低的隐含波动率（即较低的VIX）表明做市商必须回购推动反弹的空头对冲。SG 的结论： 目前较低的隐含波动率水平为市场提供了更多的下行火力。从较低的隐含波动率开始，“减缓”了这种反应灵敏的 “snap回调 ”买入机制。此外，当 IV 较低时，伽马值较高，因此伽马翻转可能会有更多的作用。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175692875","content_text":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.How to trade this?As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations wherea large amount of open interest is set to expire.In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX  (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.  Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.  Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166965452,"gmtCreate":1623988575276,"gmtModify":1631892618505,"author":{"id":"3560455691922594","authorId":"3560455691922594","name":"Agro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e95fbee96b2819a67db33a0a557e3bd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560455691922594","authorIdStr":"3560455691922594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>Test","listText":"<a 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pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373591995","repostId":"1114523776","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324431616,"gmtCreate":1616024016035,"gmtModify":1703496427207,"author":{"id":"3560455691922594","authorId":"3560455691922594","name":"Agro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e95fbee96b2819a67db33a0a557e3bd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560455691922594","authorIdStr":"3560455691922594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Testtt","listText":"Testtt","text":"Testtt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324431616","repostId":"2120136060","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137870411,"gmtCreate":1622339744633,"gmtModify":1634102237361,"author":{"id":"3560455691922594","authorId":"3560455691922594","name":"Agro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e95fbee96b2819a67db33a0a557e3bd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560455691922594","authorIdStr":"3560455691922594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>post","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>post","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$post","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b775a70b642f805ad2c94aa35313a069","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137870411","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320810340,"gmtCreate":1615077339380,"gmtModify":1703484519422,"author":{"id":"3560455691922594","authorId":"3560455691922594","name":"Agro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e95fbee96b2819a67db33a0a557e3bd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560455691922594","authorIdStr":"3560455691922594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Share","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Share","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Share","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/548410385fce9f825186b5468f53f47e","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320810340","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369205326,"gmtCreate":1614044530865,"gmtModify":1634551422517,"author":{"id":"3560455691922594","authorId":"3560455691922594","name":"Agro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e95fbee96b2819a67db33a0a557e3bd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560455691922594","authorIdStr":"3560455691922594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[comment]","listText":"[comment]","text":"[comment]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369205326","repostId":"2113800150","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}