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畜牧教主马斯克
信徒基本守则:特斯拉不是车企,是规模最大的养殖业公司。做空/卖出特斯拉就是认知不够,跌了只能加仓,马大炮是神!马大炮拯救世界!2025特斯拉改名特能吹!要相信自己的认知永远是最高的!
IP属地:海南
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畜牧教主马斯克
03-12
特能吹的马圣最近几年都是毫不负责任乱说,目的就是为了吸引媒体热度,世界首富果然有手段。
马斯克最新访谈:“擎天柱3”要来了,AI“自我改进”已经发生,AI奇点后“钱将不再重要”
畜牧教主马斯克
03-10
量产也上不了路,烧钱为了自己画下的饼[开心]
特斯拉得州工厂现身 25 辆 Cybercab 无人驾驶出租车,有望 4~8 周后规模量产
畜牧教主马斯克
03-10
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
画饼公司,能守住400多久
畜牧教主马斯克
03-09
世界第一畜牧业!教主厉害!
SpaceX拟在IPO中采用双重股权结构,以强化马斯克的控制权
畜牧教主马斯克
03-09
冬令时太折磨人了[呆住]
提醒:3月8日起美国进入夏令时,美股提前1小时开盘
畜牧教主马斯克
03-07
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
下周再次尝试冲击马圣加仓位,什么无人驾驶l3都不算,也敢让所谓的无人的士上路[微笑]
畜牧教主马斯克
03-07
$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$
稳得很
畜牧教主马斯克
03-06
吹牛王,目标就是为了拉升股价获取更多的财富,能当世界首富的人会是纯良的人吗?光从他四处网上找女生给他生孩子就知道肯定也是个为了满足私欲的人。
马斯克宣称特斯拉 “将造出 AGI”,但多年来 AI 预言屡屡落空!
畜牧教主马斯克
03-06
$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$
重新开始炒ai概念的话至少500往上,三个月内[开心]
畜牧教主马斯克
03-04
造出来和上路是两码事。谁敢让这些L3都不是的所谓的无人的士上路?
特斯拉加速Cybercab试生产,得州工厂现25辆样车
畜牧教主马斯克
03-03
主业是卖饼的公司还想产能利用到100%吗?靠卖饼股价就能上涨何必那么辛苦卖车,发发x点点赞就行了
卖不动了?据传特斯拉德国工厂产能利用率不到40%!
畜牧教主马斯克
03-03
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
下去,昨天收涨是大家认识不到问题严重性[开心]
畜牧教主马斯克
03-02
教主的畜牧业还在发力
3月全球十大富豪公布 马斯克身家已突破8000亿美元!
畜牧教主马斯克
03-02
[微笑]
以后可以把座椅换成茅草的,减量不减价又可以大赚一笔。
特斯拉电驱仅有约20个?
畜牧教主马斯克
03-02
打击虚假宣传的又一次大胜利,明明l3都不是都敢自称完全自动驾驶
特斯拉推出 2026.2.9 软件更新,移除“Autopilot”名称
畜牧教主马斯克
02-28
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
不久之后主营业务会变成贩卖信仰,信仰不够就出来预言一下[开心] 失败了,大家都自适应理解,成功了,被奉为人类救世主。
畜牧教主马斯克
02-27
20年后马圣是否还在世都难说,那么久了特斯拉除了汽车和储能业务有什么算是成功的吗?就要登月了,红警玩多了还是吸多了
马斯克:特斯拉将在20年内上月球建厂,建议投资者长期持股
畜牧教主马斯克
02-27
这位科技企业家现在已经完全不要脸了,去年展望的无人的士铺开和机器人量产都没实现,到出乱说保持热度了。
马斯克展望特斯拉未来:20年内或登月建厂 前景“极其光明”
畜牧教主马斯克
02-27
典型的信徒思维,不利于马圣拉升股价的都是假的[开心]
特斯拉加州无人驾驶“画饼”?监管记录显示:路测里程已连续六年为零
畜牧教主马斯克
02-27
waymo成本高且地区局限性高。特斯拉成本低但是软件有效迭代很慢,就算先做出来了无人的士估计也没法真正铺开无监管上路,纯纯糊弄信徒投资者的噱头罢了。
10城 VS 1城,3000辆 VS44辆!Waymo狂奔,特斯拉自动驾驶梦碎?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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11:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"马斯克最新访谈:“擎天柱3”要来了,AI“自我改进”已经发生,AI奇点后“钱将不再重要”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2618011319","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"马斯克透露,人形机器人“擎天柱3”已接近完成开发,预计今年夏天开始生产、明年进入规模化量产。他认为AI已进入“递归式自我改进”阶段,AI完全自动化可能最晚明年实现。他预测,AI时代全球经济规模未来10年可能增长10倍,货币将不再重要,未来“AI只关心能源和质量——功率和吨位。”","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>马斯克透露,人形机器人“擎天柱3”已接近完成开发,预计今年夏天开始生产、明年进入规模化量产。他认为AI已进入“递归式自我改进”阶段,AI完全自动化可能最晚明年实现。他预测,AI时代全球经济规模未来10年可能增长10倍,货币将不再重要,未来“AI只关心能源和质量——功率和吨位。”</p></blockquote><p>当地时间3月11日,在一场名为“Abundance <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMMT\">Summit</a>”科技峰会的公开对话中,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>与xAI创始人埃隆·马斯克谈及AI进展、Optimus 3的量产节奏,以及“奇点”后经济形态。</p><p>在这场访谈中,他给出了多个明确判断:<strong>AI已经进入自我改进阶段,人形机器人即将进入规模化生产。而AI“奇点之后”的经济难预测,但他押注通缩与“钱不再重要”。</strong></p><p>当被问及与SpaceX相关的数据中心建设时间表时,马斯克以“SpaceX处于静默期”为由未展开。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c8cec3211da5bd451fbe26f4610384b7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"487\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3975777775\">“擎天柱3”即将投产:明年或进入大规模生产</h2><p>在人形机器人方面,马斯克透露,<strong>特斯拉“擎天柱3”(Optimus 3)已经接近完成开发</strong>。</p><p>他说:“我们正在完成擎天柱3的最后阶段,它很可能是目前世界上最先进的机器人,其他产品还没有接近它的水平。”</p><p>按照他的说法,特斯拉计划:</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>今年夏天启动生产</strong></p></li><li><p>初期产量较低</p></li><li><p><strong>明年有望进入高产量阶段</strong></p></li></ul></blockquote><p>马斯克强调,机器人生产同样遵循制造业常见的<strong>S曲线爬坡</strong>:初期缓慢、随后快速扩张。</p><p>他说:“制造业产量通常是一条S曲线,开始很慢,然后迅速爬坡。”</p><p>与此同时,特斯拉还在设计<strong>新的机器人生产工厂</strong>。他透露,该工厂的设计与传统工厂明显不同,未来目标是不断更新机器人版本,“<strong>可能每年都会推出新的机器人设计</strong>”。</p><h2 id=\"id_796409520\">AI已进入“递归式自我改进”:用AI训练AI,人类作用减小</h2><p>在AI发展节奏上,马斯克给出的判断同样激进。</p><p>当被问及AI是否已经进入“递归式自我改进”(recursive self-improvement)阶段时,他表示:“其实这种情况已经发生一段时间了。”</p><p>他解释称,目前的大模型开发已经形成一种循环:</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>新模型由上一代模型参与训练</strong></p></li><li><p>人类仍然在监督</p></li><li><p>但参与程度正在减少</p></li></ul></blockquote><p>他说:“人类在回路中的角色正在越来越少。每一代模型都在帮助构建下一代模型。”</p><p>他预计,<strong>这种过程可能很快实现更高程度的自动化:“完全自动化的自我改进,可能今年年底出现,最晚不会超过明年。”</strong></p><p>在他看来,AI突破已经进入加速阶段:“现在的情况是,我晚上睡觉前看到一个AI突破,早上醒来又有新的突破。”</p><h2 id=\"id_2534469784\">AI奇点之后:难预测,但他押注通缩、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>收入与“钱不再重要”</h2><p>谈到制度能否跟上AI与机器人的冲击,马斯克用“奇点”作比喻:<strong>“奇点之所以叫奇点,就是因为很难预测会发生什么。”</strong></p><p>他提到Grok的标志是“黑洞周围的光环”,并称“奇点里面发生什么很难知道,但会非常有意思。”</p><p>在宏观判断上,他给出一个前提明确的乐观区间:他认为未来“有一系列可能结果,并不都很好”,但“很可能会很好”,概率“可能有80%甚至更高”。</p><p>如果没有极端外生冲击,他说自己对经济增长的判断“相当舒服”:<strong>“在没有第三次世界大战的情况下……我觉得10年内经济规模增长10倍,是一个相当稳妥的预测。”</strong></p><p>他把通胀/通缩逻辑直接归因于供给爆发:“我们会有全民收入(universal income),基本上就是给人发钱。”原因是“商品和服务的产出会远远超过货币供给”,从而形成通缩:“通缩就是产出与货币供给的比率……如果商品和服务增长速度超过货币供给,你就会通缩。”</p><p><strong>更远处,他认为货币的重要性会下降:“钱在未来某个时点会变得不再重要。”</strong></p><p>他甚至给出一个“非人类经济”的计价方式:<strong>“我觉得未来的AI不会用人类货币,它只会关心能源和质量——功率和吨位(wattage and tonnage)。”</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2395998292\">用工与“机器人造机器人”:不裁员,反而扩招,单人产出会“夸张地高”</h2><p>关于“机器人何时能大规模参与制造、替代人类”的追问,马斯克强调现实仍是“人很多”:特斯拉总员工数“约15万人”,其中“大约三分之二以某种形式在工厂”;其供应链相关人力“可能是100万到200万人”。</p><p>但他的判断是效率将大幅跃升:“我们不打算裁员或减少人员。相反,我们会增加员工数量。”真正的变化在单位产出:“特斯拉每个人的产出会变得夸张地高(nutty high)。”</p><p>这与他对技术进步路径的描述呼应:无论AI还是制造,“往往是一条S曲线,或者一系列重叠的S曲线:起初慢、指数增长、到平台、然后另一次突破再开启下一条曲线。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/377ac1bbf0be65bf0d4f8c8cb26d1c29\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"491\"/></p><p>访谈全文翻译:</p><blockquote><p>主持人Peter H. Diamandis 观众们,如你们所见,我仍在努力将“希望”变现。</p><p>马斯克 你看起来状态非常棒。</p><p>Diamandis 我感觉很好。</p><p>马斯克 是用了什么抗衰老血清之类的方法吗?</p><p>Diamandis 这是我们的“长寿特快列车”,我们正在向这个目标迈进。你也在这条路上。我想在咱们上次的交谈中,你已经开始接受延长寿命的观点了。</p><p>马斯克 在某种程度上是的。我不知道我们是否希望每个人都永远活下去,但我认为延长“健康寿命”,而不是经历一段漫长的衰老期、弄得自己一直流口水,这听起来是个好主意。我们想避免那种情况。</p><p>Diamandis 首先,祝贺SpaceX和xAI的合作。这真是个绝妙的举动,将为人类首个“戴森云”提供动力。我很好奇,你们启动这些数据中心的时间表是怎样的?你认为第一年能获得多少带宽?请让我们了解一下你们实现这一目标的速度。</p><p>马斯克 <strong>SpaceX目前正处于静默期,我不能透露那些可能会引起麻烦的信息。</strong></p><p>Diamandis 好的,那我们就不谈这个了。我能理解,但我对这个速度充满期待。</p><p>本周一,我们在这里与埃里克·施密特以及另一家超大规模计算(云服务)公司的一位负责人进行了交谈。我就不提是谁了,但我很好奇,你认为我们目前在AI的“递归自我改进”方面处于什么阶段?我们达到了吗?你认为Grok目前在进行递归自我改进吗?是如何进行的?通用人工智能(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGBK\">AGI</a>)和超级人工智能(ASI)的时间表是怎样的?请给我们大致讲讲。</p><p>马斯克 我认为我们处于递归自我改进阶段已经有一段时间了。如果你是指没有人类参与的完全自动化递归自我改进,你是这个意思吗?</p><p>Diamandis 是的,我指的是在AI软件方面。</p><p>马斯克 <strong>在递归自我改进的过程中,人类的参与度确实在逐渐降低。每一个新一代的模型都是由前一代模型构建的。这在很大程度上已经发生了,但尚未实现完全自动化。也许今年年底能实现,最迟不会超过明年。</strong></p><p>Diamandis 你认为到那时会出现智能“硬起飞”(突变式发展)吗?</p><p>马斯克 我们现在正处于硬起飞之中。</p><p>Diamandis 好的。</p><p>马斯克 就是现在。</p><p>Diamandis 是的。</p><p>马斯克 在这个阶段,我晚上去睡觉时,AI取得了一项重大突破;等我醒来时,又出现了另一项突破。</p><p>Diamandis 确实。</p><p>马斯克 坦白说,很难跟上节奏。这确实让人感到有些头晕目眩。</p><p>Diamandis 我想很多让人头晕目眩的突破也是你带来的。</p><p>马斯克 <strong>目前Grok发展得很不错。在某些指标上它是最优秀的。</strong>例如,它在预测事物方面是最好的,这可以说衡量智能的最佳指标。Grok的新版本非常出色。</p><p>我们目前在编程能力上还处于落后状态。我刚才之所以迟到,是因为我刚参加了一个关于编程的全体员工大会,梳理了所有需要完成的工作,以便在编程方面追赶并超越我们的竞争对手,我相信我们能做到。我觉得我们大概在今年年中就能实现这个目标。</p><p>此外,我认为人们并不完全了解未来会有多么庞大的智能,或者它超越人类智能的程度,以至于到了无法完全理解的地步。</p><p>你可以想象这样一种情况:<strong>假设我们利用的能源比目前地球上所有的用电量多出一百万倍,那仍然大约只是太阳能源输出的百万分之一。本质上,如果你把美国经济扩大一百万倍,它所消耗的能量仍然只是太阳能的一小部分。如果我们真正按太阳能的规模来计算,就算你将当前的经济和用电量扩大约一百万倍,你也大约只利用了太阳能的百万分之一。</strong></p><p>但是,一个使用着比目前整个文明多一百万倍电力的经济体或智能体,会是什么样子?会想些什么?会做些什么?那将是一幅非常宏伟的景象。我们面临的挑战是,哪怕只是隐约去理解那种庞大级别的智能都很难。但可以肯定地说,它能解决你能想到的所有问题。</p><p>Diamandis 是的,这就像一场长途旅行。你可能会觉得这听起来有些可笑,但我确实很欣赏这种不懈的乐观精神。</p><p>马斯克 我看到你在将“希望”变现。你把“将希望变现”这句话铭记在心了,这挺有趣的。</p><p>Diamandis 那是Grok的功劳。那是当你猛烈吐槽我时,Grok给我的营销建议。</p><p>马斯克 对吧?所以你在将希望变现。不过,你之前也在将痛苦变现。</p><p>Diamandis 那是肯定的。</p><p>马斯克 当人工智能和机器人将经济产出提高几个数量级时,那是我们根本无法想象的程度。</p><p>Diamandis 我们很可能在极短的时间内成为这个星球上智能的少数,然后是极少数,最后变成微乎其微的少数。</p><p>马斯克 是的。不仅是在地球上,而是在整个太阳系中都是如此。因为如果你只在地球上发展智能,最好的结果,也就是智能所能利用的能源,大约只占太阳能的十亿分之一。如果你只局限于地球,这就是你最好的结果。</p><p>Diamandis 也就是我们能拦截到的那部分能量,对吧?</p><p>马斯克 是的。地球大约只接收到了太阳一小部分的能量,这是宇宙中存在且我们能获取的绝大部分能量。所以实际上,整个太阳系的智能将比地球上的智能高出许多个数量级。</p><p>Diamandis 伊隆,我能问个问题吗?<strong>你能看到多远的未来?你现在能对未来多少年做出合理的预测?</strong></p><p>马斯克 <strong>很难准确预测未来的路径。很多事情往往呈现为一条S型曲线,或一系列S型曲线。一开始发展缓慢,然后呈指数级增长,接着进入线性区域,最后变成对数增长(增长放缓)。</strong></p><p>这大致就是我在人工智能突破中看到的情况。比如,出现某项突破后,它会经历一条S型曲线,看起来似乎要无限增长下去,但随后收益就会呈现对数级递减,直到出现下一项突破。因此,人工智能的进步基本上就是一系列相互重叠、相互连接的S型曲线。</p><p>Diamandis 曾经有一段时间,你或许能预测未来十年或二十年的情况。你现在的想法是什么?</p><p>马斯克 我接下来的话听起来可能会很疯狂。</p><p>Diamandis 没关系。因为你们一直是我们这些大胆预测的绝佳听众。</p><p>马斯克 是的,<strong>我想说,在10年内,经济规模将达到现在的10倍甚至更大。</strong></p><p>Diamandis 是的。你确实说过,从现在起5年多以后,GDP将出现三位数增长,经济规模将达到现在的10倍。但就你的预测能力而言……</p><p><strong>马斯克 我觉得大约10年增长10倍,实际上是一个相当保守的预测。除非发生第三次世界大战之类的事情,打乱了这些计划预期。但在没有第三次世界大战的情况下,如果目前的趋势继续下去,我会说经济在10年内将增长10倍。</strong></p><p>Diamandis 我喜欢这个说法。你能给我们举个例子吗?</p><p>马斯克 <strong>人类会在月球上建立基地。</strong></p><p>Diamandis 是的。并且我们将有人类……</p><p>马斯克 登陆火星。</p><p>Diamandis 我们还将在月球上建造质量投射器。</p><p>马斯克 我想是的。我认为10年内我们就能在月球上拥有质量投射器。</p><p>Diamandis 太棒了。杰拉德·<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TKKD.SI\">K</a>·奥尼尔的太空愿景正在实现。</p><p>今年的“富足峰会”上,我们有4个机器人同台亮相。我很期待“擎天柱(Optimus)”。我很好奇擎天柱3代的时间表,特别是我什么时候能买一两台?你预计擎天柱什么时候会投入商业销售?还是说你会采用租赁的模式?</p><p>马斯克 <strong>我们目前正处于擎天柱3代完成的最后阶段。它将是目前世界上最先进的机器人,其他任何机器人都难以望其项背。事实上,我还没见过任何像擎天柱3代一样出色的机器人演示。</strong>坦白说,也许有这样的机器人存在,或者它们处于保密状态,但我还没看到。当然,我必须确保我说的这些内容是可以适度公开的。</p><p>Diamandis 我们正在X平台上直播这场对话。</p><p>马斯克 好的,那这已经非常公开了。</p><p>Diamandis 是的。</p><p>马斯克 <strong>我想我们会在今年夏天开始生产擎天柱3代,但一开始的产能会非常慢。制造数量随时间推移会呈现经典的S型曲线攀升,大概到明年某个时候能达到大规模量产。接下来,在擎天柱4代之后,我们会加快设计迭代。</strong>明年我可能会尝试每年发布一款新的机器人设计,并且每年都对机器人的设计进行改进。</p><p>Diamandis 当我和戴夫·邦迪参观超级工厂时,那是一次非凡的体验。特斯拉的厂房有一千一百五十万平方英尺。然后你曾说过,你还将在那里为擎天柱建造九百五十万平方英尺的厂区,这太令人惊叹了。</p><p>马斯克 面积数字大概是这样。</p><p>Diamandis 必须得是这样。</p><p>马斯克 那会相当不错。那将是一个全新的工厂设计,它与其他工厂截然不同。</p><p>Diamandis 我们离“机器人制造机器人”还有多远?你们已经将超级工厂的大部分环节自动化了,人类在其中只扮演很小的角色。在制造方面,机器人会接替目前人类扮演的角色吗?</p><p>马斯克 我们仍然有许多人类员工在参与制造。那些直接受雇于特斯拉、在一线制造产品的员工,或者说工厂里的人,要么在制造产品,要么在管理制造产品的人。人数大约有十万。所以我们有很多员工。特斯拉的总人数大约在15万左右,平均有三分之二的人以某种形式在工厂里工作。我们的供应商那里可能还有一百万到两百万人。</p><p><strong>所以涉及的人数非常多。我们预期的是,特斯拉的人均产出将会变得非常高。因此我们没有裁员计划,事实上我们还会增加员工人数。但人类的人均产出将会变得高得离谱。</strong></p><p>Diamandis 到了难以置信的程度。</p><p>在你来参加播客节目时,我们讨论了“可持续的富足”这个概念。你当时强调,我们将迎来一个“全民高收入(UHI)”的时代,这已经超越了“全民基本收入(UBI)”的讨论范畴。我想知道你对于我们如何实现这一目标有什么想法吗?你有进一步的思考吗?</p><p>此外,我们之前谈到了可能会有一段社会动荡期,大概两到五年。在此期间,直到我们实现“去货币化”和通货紧缩,进而达到全民高收入(UHI)的阶段之前,可能需要发放很多类似于疫情期间的救济支票。对此你有更多思考吗?人们真的需要那种希望和愿景。</p><p>马斯克 要明确的是,我认为我们不应该感到自满。我们确实需要谨慎,因为未来的结果是多种多样的,并非所有结果都很美好。<strong>但就目前而言,我同意你的看法,未来很可能是美好的。大概有80%的几率,甚至更有可能会很美好。</strong></p><p><strong>我确实认为我们将实现全民收入。本质上就是直接向人们发钱。因为商品和服务的产出将远远超过货币供应量,实际上就会出现通货紧缩。通货紧缩就是商品和服务的产出与货币供应量的比率。因此,如果商品和服务的增长率超过了货币供应量的增长率(我预测这将会发生),那么就会出现通货紧缩。</strong></p><p>Diamandis 是的。许多人会创办新公司并相互竞争,从而压低价格,这会越来越快地增加变数并加剧通货紧缩。</p><p>马斯克 基本上,人工智能和机器人将制造出海量的产品并提供极多的服务,以至于人类实际上没有需要亲自动手去做的事情了。对于人类来说,总有欲望得到满足的一刻。</p><p>所以回到我之前的例子:如果经济规模比美国经济大一百万倍,那么人类所有的欲望早就被满足了。甚至如果我们的经济规模比现在大一千倍,你可能就已经满足了人们所能想到的一切物质需求。</p><p>Diamandis 那么,你认为金钱的价值会大幅下降吗?我们会进入后资本主义时代吗?</p><p>马斯克 <strong>是的,我认为在未来的某个时刻,金钱将不再具有现实意义。</strong></p><p>Diamandis 所以就在你成为……</p><p>马斯克 未来的社会形态可能有点像伊恩·班克斯(Iain Banks)科幻小说《文明》(Culture)系列中所描述的那样。<strong>我认为未来的人工智能不会使用人类的货币,它只会关心能源和质量,也就是功率和吨位。</strong></p><p>Diamandis 这听起来有点讽刺,对吧?就在你即将成为拥有数万亿美元的超级富豪时,金钱却开始失去价值了。</p><p>马斯克 差不多吧。这一切财富数字,实际上只代表了我所创立的公司的股权比例。这些钱并不是存在银行账户里的。严格来说,我只是拥有这些公司一部分的股权。这些公司正在做很多有用的事情,随着公司创造出价值,其估值不断增长,而股权比例折算下来构成了我的财富总额,使得这个数字看起来很高。</p><p>Diamandis 曾经有人采访我,问我你的动力是什么?是什么在驱动你?我回答说,埃隆的动力就是解决问题。他通过一次又一次地解决那些最大的难题,致力于让这个世界变得更好。如果别人能解决这些问题,他就不必亲自出马了,但问题是没有其他人去解决。所以,我只想对你表示感谢。</p><p>马斯克 不客气。</p><p>Diamandis 我很好奇,你认为民主制度和现代机构能跟得上这场即将到来的“超音速海啸”吗?它们会被时代的洪流冲垮吗?会彻底崩溃吗?我们该如何应对?</p><p>马斯克 <strong>这被称为“奇点”是有原因的。很难预测奇点内部会发生什么。Grok 的标志就是奇点。</strong></p><p>Diamandis 我很喜欢。顺便说一句,你身后的标志很漂亮,非常华丽。</p><p>马斯克 谢谢。那个光环象征着黑洞周围的质量和光线正在坠入其中。很难知道奇点内部会发生什么,但这将是非常有趣的。我对未来的生活将会非常精彩充满信心。坦白说,我认为人工智能和机器人技术也是我们解决预算赤字、避免国家破产的唯一途径。你对我的观点产生了一定的影响,我现在决定要变得更加乐观。我们确实应该更加乐观。</p><p>Diamandis 谢谢你,伙计。</p><p>马斯克 以前我并不是个乐观主义者,可能是过多地沉浸在消极的一面了。</p><p>Diamandis 将乐观主义和现实主义结合起来,总归是有好处的。</p><p>马斯克 完全正确。<strong>你不能自满,也不能仅仅盲目假定一切都会顺利,而是要努力让事情朝着好的方向发展。我的意思是,未来肯定会发生一些令人惊叹的事情。如果我们拥有高度灵巧且极其聪明的仿生机器人,那意味着地球上的每个人都能获得比现今世界上最富有的人还要好的医疗服务。</strong>顺便说一句,别人都说我是最富有的人,但我认为那些君主统治者实际上比我富有得多。</p><p>比如,我不得不接受了三次颈部手术,因为前两次都做砸了。并且我的背现在还是会有些疼。我就在想,人工智能能不能帮忙解决背痛问题?如果能,那将是一个巨大的胜利。而且我认为它一定能做到。背痛真的让人很难受。由于背痛的折磨,导致睡眠质量变差,人就会变得脾气暴躁。</p><p>Diamandis 今天早上,大卫·辛克莱(David Sinclair)来到了我们的舞台。他正在进行表观遗传重编程的临床人体试验。最近发表的一篇论文表明,这种疗法能够实现关节修复。因此,背痛或许正是它能消除的病症之一。</p><p>马斯克 那将是非常了不起的。当然,如果仅仅是解决背痛问题,人类的平均幸福感就会得到极大提升。因为对于背痛来说,这不是你会不会得的问题,而是迟早的问题。人体设计上确实有些缺陷。</p><p>Diamandis 我一直想邀请你来达拉斯的 Fountain Life 医疗中心。我们会帮你的。等你什么时候有空了一定要来。</p><p>马斯克 你们那里都有什么设备?我了解你们有核磁共振(MRI)和CT扫描之类的,但你们拿到扫描结果后会怎么做呢?</p><p>Diamandis 我很乐意把服务清单发给你,我会私信发给你。你真的太慷慨了。接下来要和我一起登台的是另一位伟大的“登月计划”企业家,本·拉姆(Ben Lamm)。他经营着“复活灭绝物种”的 Colossal 公司,正在研究复活猛犸象以及其他15个物种。我听说你想要一只迷你猛犸象,这是真的吗?</p><p>马斯克 是的,我觉得养一只迷你猛犸象做宠物一定会非常酷。那绝对是史诗级的。那些毛茸茸、可爱的小家伙到处奔跑嘶鸣,光是想想那画面就让人感到兴奋。</p><p>Diamandis 好的,我会向本美言几句的。太奇妙了。</p><p>马斯克 有人能在现实生活中建造一个《侏罗纪公园》吗?如果真<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01630\">建成</a>了,哪怕有死亡风险,我也绝对会去看看,那一定酷毙了。</p><p>Diamandis 我认为如果有人能做到这点,那一定就是本·拉姆和他的 Colossal 公司。他正在通过工程技术创造生命。最近有人问他能否制造一只皮卡丘,他说也许可以。</p><p>马斯克 是的,《侏罗纪世界》什么的,那肯定会非常棒。</p><p>Diamandis 好的,我会问他的。埃隆,非常感谢你来到这里与我们分享。谢谢你,我的朋友。让我们把掌声送给埃隆·马斯克!(背景音起:没有什么能阻挡我们了)</p></blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克最新访谈:“擎天柱3”要来了,AI“自我改进”已经发生,AI奇点后“钱将不再重要”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克最新访谈:“擎天柱3”要来了,AI“自我改进”已经发生,AI奇点后“钱将不再重要”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-12 11:57 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3767302><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>马斯克透露,人形机器人“擎天柱3”已接近完成开发,预计今年夏天开始生产、明年进入规模化量产。他认为AI已进入“递归式自我改进”阶段,AI完全自动化可能最晚明年实现。他预测,AI时代全球经济规模未来10年可能增长10倍,货币将不再重要,未来“AI只关心能源和质量——功率和吨位。”当地时间3月11日,在一场名为“Abundance Summit”科技峰会的公开对话中,特斯拉与xAI创始人埃隆·马斯克...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3767302\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377ac1bbf0be65bf0d4f8c8cb26d1c29","relate_stocks":{"BK4604":"机器人概念","TSLT":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-T-Rex","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","TSLW":"TSLA周配息ETF-Roundhill","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 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ETF-Direxion","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3767302","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2618011319","content_text":"马斯克透露,人形机器人“擎天柱3”已接近完成开发,预计今年夏天开始生产、明年进入规模化量产。他认为AI已进入“递归式自我改进”阶段,AI完全自动化可能最晚明年实现。他预测,AI时代全球经济规模未来10年可能增长10倍,货币将不再重要,未来“AI只关心能源和质量——功率和吨位。”当地时间3月11日,在一场名为“Abundance Summit”科技峰会的公开对话中,特斯拉与xAI创始人埃隆·马斯克谈及AI进展、Optimus 3的量产节奏,以及“奇点”后经济形态。在这场访谈中,他给出了多个明确判断:AI已经进入自我改进阶段,人形机器人即将进入规模化生产。而AI“奇点之后”的经济难预测,但他押注通缩与“钱不再重要”。当被问及与SpaceX相关的数据中心建设时间表时,马斯克以“SpaceX处于静默期”为由未展开。“擎天柱3”即将投产:明年或进入大规模生产在人形机器人方面,马斯克透露,特斯拉“擎天柱3”(Optimus 3)已经接近完成开发。他说:“我们正在完成擎天柱3的最后阶段,它很可能是目前世界上最先进的机器人,其他产品还没有接近它的水平。”按照他的说法,特斯拉计划:今年夏天启动生产初期产量较低明年有望进入高产量阶段马斯克强调,机器人生产同样遵循制造业常见的S曲线爬坡:初期缓慢、随后快速扩张。他说:“制造业产量通常是一条S曲线,开始很慢,然后迅速爬坡。”与此同时,特斯拉还在设计新的机器人生产工厂。他透露,该工厂的设计与传统工厂明显不同,未来目标是不断更新机器人版本,“可能每年都会推出新的机器人设计”。AI已进入“递归式自我改进”:用AI训练AI,人类作用减小在AI发展节奏上,马斯克给出的判断同样激进。当被问及AI是否已经进入“递归式自我改进”(recursive self-improvement)阶段时,他表示:“其实这种情况已经发生一段时间了。”他解释称,目前的大模型开发已经形成一种循环:新模型由上一代模型参与训练人类仍然在监督但参与程度正在减少他说:“人类在回路中的角色正在越来越少。每一代模型都在帮助构建下一代模型。”他预计,这种过程可能很快实现更高程度的自动化:“完全自动化的自我改进,可能今年年底出现,最晚不会超过明年。”在他看来,AI突破已经进入加速阶段:“现在的情况是,我晚上睡觉前看到一个AI突破,早上醒来又有新的突破。”AI奇点之后:难预测,但他押注通缩、全民收入与“钱不再重要”谈到制度能否跟上AI与机器人的冲击,马斯克用“奇点”作比喻:“奇点之所以叫奇点,就是因为很难预测会发生什么。”他提到Grok的标志是“黑洞周围的光环”,并称“奇点里面发生什么很难知道,但会非常有意思。”在宏观判断上,他给出一个前提明确的乐观区间:他认为未来“有一系列可能结果,并不都很好”,但“很可能会很好”,概率“可能有80%甚至更高”。如果没有极端外生冲击,他说自己对经济增长的判断“相当舒服”:“在没有第三次世界大战的情况下……我觉得10年内经济规模增长10倍,是一个相当稳妥的预测。”他把通胀/通缩逻辑直接归因于供给爆发:“我们会有全民收入(universal income),基本上就是给人发钱。”原因是“商品和服务的产出会远远超过货币供给”,从而形成通缩:“通缩就是产出与货币供给的比率……如果商品和服务增长速度超过货币供给,你就会通缩。”更远处,他认为货币的重要性会下降:“钱在未来某个时点会变得不再重要。”他甚至给出一个“非人类经济”的计价方式:“我觉得未来的AI不会用人类货币,它只会关心能源和质量——功率和吨位(wattage and tonnage)。”用工与“机器人造机器人”:不裁员,反而扩招,单人产出会“夸张地高”关于“机器人何时能大规模参与制造、替代人类”的追问,马斯克强调现实仍是“人很多”:特斯拉总员工数“约15万人”,其中“大约三分之二以某种形式在工厂”;其供应链相关人力“可能是100万到200万人”。但他的判断是效率将大幅跃升:“我们不打算裁员或减少人员。相反,我们会增加员工数量。”真正的变化在单位产出:“特斯拉每个人的产出会变得夸张地高(nutty high)。”这与他对技术进步路径的描述呼应:无论AI还是制造,“往往是一条S曲线,或者一系列重叠的S曲线:起初慢、指数增长、到平台、然后另一次突破再开启下一条曲线。”访谈全文翻译:主持人Peter H. Diamandis 观众们,如你们所见,我仍在努力将“希望”变现。马斯克 你看起来状态非常棒。Diamandis 我感觉很好。马斯克 是用了什么抗衰老血清之类的方法吗?Diamandis 这是我们的“长寿特快列车”,我们正在向这个目标迈进。你也在这条路上。我想在咱们上次的交谈中,你已经开始接受延长寿命的观点了。马斯克 在某种程度上是的。我不知道我们是否希望每个人都永远活下去,但我认为延长“健康寿命”,而不是经历一段漫长的衰老期、弄得自己一直流口水,这听起来是个好主意。我们想避免那种情况。Diamandis 首先,祝贺SpaceX和xAI的合作。这真是个绝妙的举动,将为人类首个“戴森云”提供动力。我很好奇,你们启动这些数据中心的时间表是怎样的?你认为第一年能获得多少带宽?请让我们了解一下你们实现这一目标的速度。马斯克 SpaceX目前正处于静默期,我不能透露那些可能会引起麻烦的信息。Diamandis 好的,那我们就不谈这个了。我能理解,但我对这个速度充满期待。本周一,我们在这里与埃里克·施密特以及另一家超大规模计算(云服务)公司的一位负责人进行了交谈。我就不提是谁了,但我很好奇,你认为我们目前在AI的“递归自我改进”方面处于什么阶段?我们达到了吗?你认为Grok目前在进行递归自我改进吗?是如何进行的?通用人工智能(AGI)和超级人工智能(ASI)的时间表是怎样的?请给我们大致讲讲。马斯克 我认为我们处于递归自我改进阶段已经有一段时间了。如果你是指没有人类参与的完全自动化递归自我改进,你是这个意思吗?Diamandis 是的,我指的是在AI软件方面。马斯克 在递归自我改进的过程中,人类的参与度确实在逐渐降低。每一个新一代的模型都是由前一代模型构建的。这在很大程度上已经发生了,但尚未实现完全自动化。也许今年年底能实现,最迟不会超过明年。Diamandis 你认为到那时会出现智能“硬起飞”(突变式发展)吗?马斯克 我们现在正处于硬起飞之中。Diamandis 好的。马斯克 就是现在。Diamandis 是的。马斯克 在这个阶段,我晚上去睡觉时,AI取得了一项重大突破;等我醒来时,又出现了另一项突破。Diamandis 确实。马斯克 坦白说,很难跟上节奏。这确实让人感到有些头晕目眩。Diamandis 我想很多让人头晕目眩的突破也是你带来的。马斯克 目前Grok发展得很不错。在某些指标上它是最优秀的。例如,它在预测事物方面是最好的,这可以说衡量智能的最佳指标。Grok的新版本非常出色。我们目前在编程能力上还处于落后状态。我刚才之所以迟到,是因为我刚参加了一个关于编程的全体员工大会,梳理了所有需要完成的工作,以便在编程方面追赶并超越我们的竞争对手,我相信我们能做到。我觉得我们大概在今年年中就能实现这个目标。此外,我认为人们并不完全了解未来会有多么庞大的智能,或者它超越人类智能的程度,以至于到了无法完全理解的地步。你可以想象这样一种情况:假设我们利用的能源比目前地球上所有的用电量多出一百万倍,那仍然大约只是太阳能源输出的百万分之一。本质上,如果你把美国经济扩大一百万倍,它所消耗的能量仍然只是太阳能的一小部分。如果我们真正按太阳能的规模来计算,就算你将当前的经济和用电量扩大约一百万倍,你也大约只利用了太阳能的百万分之一。但是,一个使用着比目前整个文明多一百万倍电力的经济体或智能体,会是什么样子?会想些什么?会做些什么?那将是一幅非常宏伟的景象。我们面临的挑战是,哪怕只是隐约去理解那种庞大级别的智能都很难。但可以肯定地说,它能解决你能想到的所有问题。Diamandis 是的,这就像一场长途旅行。你可能会觉得这听起来有些可笑,但我确实很欣赏这种不懈的乐观精神。马斯克 我看到你在将“希望”变现。你把“将希望变现”这句话铭记在心了,这挺有趣的。Diamandis 那是Grok的功劳。那是当你猛烈吐槽我时,Grok给我的营销建议。马斯克 对吧?所以你在将希望变现。不过,你之前也在将痛苦变现。Diamandis 那是肯定的。马斯克 当人工智能和机器人将经济产出提高几个数量级时,那是我们根本无法想象的程度。Diamandis 我们很可能在极短的时间内成为这个星球上智能的少数,然后是极少数,最后变成微乎其微的少数。马斯克 是的。不仅是在地球上,而是在整个太阳系中都是如此。因为如果你只在地球上发展智能,最好的结果,也就是智能所能利用的能源,大约只占太阳能的十亿分之一。如果你只局限于地球,这就是你最好的结果。Diamandis 也就是我们能拦截到的那部分能量,对吧?马斯克 是的。地球大约只接收到了太阳一小部分的能量,这是宇宙中存在且我们能获取的绝大部分能量。所以实际上,整个太阳系的智能将比地球上的智能高出许多个数量级。Diamandis 伊隆,我能问个问题吗?你能看到多远的未来?你现在能对未来多少年做出合理的预测?马斯克 很难准确预测未来的路径。很多事情往往呈现为一条S型曲线,或一系列S型曲线。一开始发展缓慢,然后呈指数级增长,接着进入线性区域,最后变成对数增长(增长放缓)。这大致就是我在人工智能突破中看到的情况。比如,出现某项突破后,它会经历一条S型曲线,看起来似乎要无限增长下去,但随后收益就会呈现对数级递减,直到出现下一项突破。因此,人工智能的进步基本上就是一系列相互重叠、相互连接的S型曲线。Diamandis 曾经有一段时间,你或许能预测未来十年或二十年的情况。你现在的想法是什么?马斯克 我接下来的话听起来可能会很疯狂。Diamandis 没关系。因为你们一直是我们这些大胆预测的绝佳听众。马斯克 是的,我想说,在10年内,经济规模将达到现在的10倍甚至更大。Diamandis 是的。你确实说过,从现在起5年多以后,GDP将出现三位数增长,经济规模将达到现在的10倍。但就你的预测能力而言……马斯克 我觉得大约10年增长10倍,实际上是一个相当保守的预测。除非发生第三次世界大战之类的事情,打乱了这些计划预期。但在没有第三次世界大战的情况下,如果目前的趋势继续下去,我会说经济在10年内将增长10倍。Diamandis 我喜欢这个说法。你能给我们举个例子吗?马斯克 人类会在月球上建立基地。Diamandis 是的。并且我们将有人类……马斯克 登陆火星。Diamandis 我们还将在月球上建造质量投射器。马斯克 我想是的。我认为10年内我们就能在月球上拥有质量投射器。Diamandis 太棒了。杰拉德·K·奥尼尔的太空愿景正在实现。今年的“富足峰会”上,我们有4个机器人同台亮相。我很期待“擎天柱(Optimus)”。我很好奇擎天柱3代的时间表,特别是我什么时候能买一两台?你预计擎天柱什么时候会投入商业销售?还是说你会采用租赁的模式?马斯克 我们目前正处于擎天柱3代完成的最后阶段。它将是目前世界上最先进的机器人,其他任何机器人都难以望其项背。事实上,我还没见过任何像擎天柱3代一样出色的机器人演示。坦白说,也许有这样的机器人存在,或者它们处于保密状态,但我还没看到。当然,我必须确保我说的这些内容是可以适度公开的。Diamandis 我们正在X平台上直播这场对话。马斯克 好的,那这已经非常公开了。Diamandis 是的。马斯克 我想我们会在今年夏天开始生产擎天柱3代,但一开始的产能会非常慢。制造数量随时间推移会呈现经典的S型曲线攀升,大概到明年某个时候能达到大规模量产。接下来,在擎天柱4代之后,我们会加快设计迭代。明年我可能会尝试每年发布一款新的机器人设计,并且每年都对机器人的设计进行改进。Diamandis 当我和戴夫·邦迪参观超级工厂时,那是一次非凡的体验。特斯拉的厂房有一千一百五十万平方英尺。然后你曾说过,你还将在那里为擎天柱建造九百五十万平方英尺的厂区,这太令人惊叹了。马斯克 面积数字大概是这样。Diamandis 必须得是这样。马斯克 那会相当不错。那将是一个全新的工厂设计,它与其他工厂截然不同。Diamandis 我们离“机器人制造机器人”还有多远?你们已经将超级工厂的大部分环节自动化了,人类在其中只扮演很小的角色。在制造方面,机器人会接替目前人类扮演的角色吗?马斯克 我们仍然有许多人类员工在参与制造。那些直接受雇于特斯拉、在一线制造产品的员工,或者说工厂里的人,要么在制造产品,要么在管理制造产品的人。人数大约有十万。所以我们有很多员工。特斯拉的总人数大约在15万左右,平均有三分之二的人以某种形式在工厂里工作。我们的供应商那里可能还有一百万到两百万人。所以涉及的人数非常多。我们预期的是,特斯拉的人均产出将会变得非常高。因此我们没有裁员计划,事实上我们还会增加员工人数。但人类的人均产出将会变得高得离谱。Diamandis 到了难以置信的程度。在你来参加播客节目时,我们讨论了“可持续的富足”这个概念。你当时强调,我们将迎来一个“全民高收入(UHI)”的时代,这已经超越了“全民基本收入(UBI)”的讨论范畴。我想知道你对于我们如何实现这一目标有什么想法吗?你有进一步的思考吗?此外,我们之前谈到了可能会有一段社会动荡期,大概两到五年。在此期间,直到我们实现“去货币化”和通货紧缩,进而达到全民高收入(UHI)的阶段之前,可能需要发放很多类似于疫情期间的救济支票。对此你有更多思考吗?人们真的需要那种希望和愿景。马斯克 要明确的是,我认为我们不应该感到自满。我们确实需要谨慎,因为未来的结果是多种多样的,并非所有结果都很美好。但就目前而言,我同意你的看法,未来很可能是美好的。大概有80%的几率,甚至更有可能会很美好。我确实认为我们将实现全民收入。本质上就是直接向人们发钱。因为商品和服务的产出将远远超过货币供应量,实际上就会出现通货紧缩。通货紧缩就是商品和服务的产出与货币供应量的比率。因此,如果商品和服务的增长率超过了货币供应量的增长率(我预测这将会发生),那么就会出现通货紧缩。Diamandis 是的。许多人会创办新公司并相互竞争,从而压低价格,这会越来越快地增加变数并加剧通货紧缩。马斯克 基本上,人工智能和机器人将制造出海量的产品并提供极多的服务,以至于人类实际上没有需要亲自动手去做的事情了。对于人类来说,总有欲望得到满足的一刻。所以回到我之前的例子:如果经济规模比美国经济大一百万倍,那么人类所有的欲望早就被满足了。甚至如果我们的经济规模比现在大一千倍,你可能就已经满足了人们所能想到的一切物质需求。Diamandis 那么,你认为金钱的价值会大幅下降吗?我们会进入后资本主义时代吗?马斯克 是的,我认为在未来的某个时刻,金钱将不再具有现实意义。Diamandis 所以就在你成为……马斯克 未来的社会形态可能有点像伊恩·班克斯(Iain Banks)科幻小说《文明》(Culture)系列中所描述的那样。我认为未来的人工智能不会使用人类的货币,它只会关心能源和质量,也就是功率和吨位。Diamandis 这听起来有点讽刺,对吧?就在你即将成为拥有数万亿美元的超级富豪时,金钱却开始失去价值了。马斯克 差不多吧。这一切财富数字,实际上只代表了我所创立的公司的股权比例。这些钱并不是存在银行账户里的。严格来说,我只是拥有这些公司一部分的股权。这些公司正在做很多有用的事情,随着公司创造出价值,其估值不断增长,而股权比例折算下来构成了我的财富总额,使得这个数字看起来很高。Diamandis 曾经有人采访我,问我你的动力是什么?是什么在驱动你?我回答说,埃隆的动力就是解决问题。他通过一次又一次地解决那些最大的难题,致力于让这个世界变得更好。如果别人能解决这些问题,他就不必亲自出马了,但问题是没有其他人去解决。所以,我只想对你表示感谢。马斯克 不客气。Diamandis 我很好奇,你认为民主制度和现代机构能跟得上这场即将到来的“超音速海啸”吗?它们会被时代的洪流冲垮吗?会彻底崩溃吗?我们该如何应对?马斯克 这被称为“奇点”是有原因的。很难预测奇点内部会发生什么。Grok 的标志就是奇点。Diamandis 我很喜欢。顺便说一句,你身后的标志很漂亮,非常华丽。马斯克 谢谢。那个光环象征着黑洞周围的质量和光线正在坠入其中。很难知道奇点内部会发生什么,但这将是非常有趣的。我对未来的生活将会非常精彩充满信心。坦白说,我认为人工智能和机器人技术也是我们解决预算赤字、避免国家破产的唯一途径。你对我的观点产生了一定的影响,我现在决定要变得更加乐观。我们确实应该更加乐观。Diamandis 谢谢你,伙计。马斯克 以前我并不是个乐观主义者,可能是过多地沉浸在消极的一面了。Diamandis 将乐观主义和现实主义结合起来,总归是有好处的。马斯克 完全正确。你不能自满,也不能仅仅盲目假定一切都会顺利,而是要努力让事情朝着好的方向发展。我的意思是,未来肯定会发生一些令人惊叹的事情。如果我们拥有高度灵巧且极其聪明的仿生机器人,那意味着地球上的每个人都能获得比现今世界上最富有的人还要好的医疗服务。顺便说一句,别人都说我是最富有的人,但我认为那些君主统治者实际上比我富有得多。比如,我不得不接受了三次颈部手术,因为前两次都做砸了。并且我的背现在还是会有些疼。我就在想,人工智能能不能帮忙解决背痛问题?如果能,那将是一个巨大的胜利。而且我认为它一定能做到。背痛真的让人很难受。由于背痛的折磨,导致睡眠质量变差,人就会变得脾气暴躁。Diamandis 今天早上,大卫·辛克莱(David Sinclair)来到了我们的舞台。他正在进行表观遗传重编程的临床人体试验。最近发表的一篇论文表明,这种疗法能够实现关节修复。因此,背痛或许正是它能消除的病症之一。马斯克 那将是非常了不起的。当然,如果仅仅是解决背痛问题,人类的平均幸福感就会得到极大提升。因为对于背痛来说,这不是你会不会得的问题,而是迟早的问题。人体设计上确实有些缺陷。Diamandis 我一直想邀请你来达拉斯的 Fountain Life 医疗中心。我们会帮你的。等你什么时候有空了一定要来。马斯克 你们那里都有什么设备?我了解你们有核磁共振(MRI)和CT扫描之类的,但你们拿到扫描结果后会怎么做呢?Diamandis 我很乐意把服务清单发给你,我会私信发给你。你真的太慷慨了。接下来要和我一起登台的是另一位伟大的“登月计划”企业家,本·拉姆(Ben Lamm)。他经营着“复活灭绝物种”的 Colossal 公司,正在研究复活猛犸象以及其他15个物种。我听说你想要一只迷你猛犸象,这是真的吗?马斯克 是的,我觉得养一只迷你猛犸象做宠物一定会非常酷。那绝对是史诗级的。那些毛茸茸、可爱的小家伙到处奔跑嘶鸣,光是想想那画面就让人感到兴奋。Diamandis 好的,我会向本美言几句的。太奇妙了。马斯克 有人能在现实生活中建造一个《侏罗纪公园》吗?如果真建成了,哪怕有死亡风险,我也绝对会去看看,那一定酷毙了。Diamandis 我认为如果有人能做到这点,那一定就是本·拉姆和他的 Colossal 公司。他正在通过工程技术创造生命。最近有人问他能否制造一只皮卡丘,他说也许可以。马斯克 是的,《侏罗纪世界》什么的,那肯定会非常棒。Diamandis 好的,我会问他的。埃隆,非常感谢你来到这里与我们分享。谢谢你,我的朋友。让我们把掌声送给埃隆·马斯克!(背景音起:没有什么能阻挡我们了)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TESL":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLA":1.98,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":541232465171272,"gmtCreate":1773125349593,"gmtModify":1773125352229,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"量产也上不了路,烧钱为了自己画下的饼[开心] ","listText":"量产也上不了路,烧钱为了自己画下的饼[开心] ","text":"量产也上不了路,烧钱为了自己画下的饼[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/541232465171272","repostId":"2618555602","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2618555602","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1773109350,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2618555602?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-10 10:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉得州工厂现身 25 辆 Cybercab 无人驾驶出租车,有望 4~8 周后规模量产","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2618555602","media":"中国机器人网","summary":"无人机飞手 Joe Tegtmeyer 于 3 月 3 日在 X 平台发布推文,分享了一段航拍视频,显示特斯拉得州工厂加速测试生产其无人驾驶出租车 Cybercab,标志着项目正从低产量测试向量产过渡。基于本次曝光的画面,在特斯拉得州超级工厂内,共有 25 辆 Cybercab 分布在三个主要区域:14 辆金色涂装版停在工厂出口附近,9 辆位于碰撞测试区,另有 2 辆处于下线检测阶段,同时,还有数辆测试车在厂区内自动行驶。IT之家附上相关截图如下:","content":"<html><body><article><p>无人机飞手 Joe Tegtmeyer 于 3 月 3 日在 X 平台发布推文,分享了一段航拍<strong>视频</strong>,显示<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>得州工厂加速测试生产其无人驾驶出租车 Cybercab,标志着项目正从低产量测试向量产过渡。</p><p>基于本次曝光的画面,在特斯拉得州超级工厂内,共有 25 辆 Cybercab 分布在三个主要区域:14 辆金色涂装版停在工厂出口附近,9 辆位于碰撞测试区,另有 2 辆处于下线检测阶段,同时,还有数辆测试车在厂区内自动行驶。IT之家附上相关截图如下:</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260310102231468d1631n8j471v2iv\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉得州工厂现身 25 辆 Cybercab 无人驾驶出租车,有望 4~8 周后规模量产</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉得州工厂现身 25 辆 Cybercab 无人驾驶出租车,有望 4~8 周后规模量产\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-10 10:22 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260310102333a45d0a6e&s=b><strong>中国机器人网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>无人机飞手 Joe Tegtmeyer 于 3 月 3 日在 X 平台发布推文,分享了一段航拍视频,显示特斯拉得州工厂加速测试生产其无人驾驶出租车 Cybercab,标志着项目正从低产量测试向量产过渡。基于本次曝光的画面,在特斯拉得州超级工厂内,共有 25 辆 Cybercab 分布在三个主要区域:14 辆金色涂装版停在工厂出口附近,9 辆位于碰撞测试区,另有 2 辆处于下线检测阶段,同时,还有...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260310102333a45d0a6e&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU0210536198.USD":"JPM US GROWTH \"A\" ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4543":"AI","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC 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Tegtmeyer 于 3 月 3 日在 X 平台发布推文,分享了一段航拍视频,显示特斯拉得州工厂加速测试生产其无人驾驶出租车 Cybercab,标志着项目正从低产量测试向量产过渡。基于本次曝光的画面,在特斯拉得州超级工厂内,共有 25 辆 Cybercab 分布在三个主要区域:14 辆金色涂装版停在工厂出口附近,9 辆位于碰撞测试区,另有 2 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data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 画饼公司,能守住400多久","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 画饼公司,能守住400多久","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/540896004506344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":540877520934408,"gmtCreate":1773068308625,"gmtModify":1773068310741,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"世界第一畜牧业!教主厉害!","listText":"世界第一畜牧业!教主厉害!","text":"世界第一畜牧业!教主厉害!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/540877520934408","repostId":"1101366311","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101366311","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1771028518,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101366311?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-14 08:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"SpaceX拟在IPO中采用双重股权结构,以强化马斯克的控制权","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101366311","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"效仿创始人马斯克在特斯拉提出的方案。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>据报道,SpaceX考虑在今年计划的 IPO 中采用双层股权结构,效仿创始人马斯克在特斯拉提出的方案。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/820e6af48b020bffee2bf6c3bc32a456\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1472\" tg-height=\"899\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">双层股权结构会让特定股东持有的股票拥有更高投票权,从而掌控公司决策。这能让马斯克等内部人士即便只持有少数股份,也能维持控制权。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">消息人士称,SpaceX 正在扩充董事会成员,为 IPO 做准备,并推动马斯克在传统火箭卫星业务之外的太空野心。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SpaceX 计划今年晚些时候上市,融资规模或高达500 亿美元,用于建设太空 AI 数据中心和月球工厂。公司近期还收购了马斯克的 xAI,正式切入人工智能领域。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相关讨论仍在进行中,IPO 细节可能调整。SpaceX 暂未回应置评。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">双层股权结构在 Meta、谷歌等科技公司中普遍使用,通常让创始人持股拥有10~20 倍投票权,普通股东仅 1 票。批评者认为这会降低公司问责性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">若采用该结构,马斯克可抵御激进投资者干扰,牢牢掌控公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克曾公开支持双层股权,并试图在特斯拉设立类似结构,以获得至少 25% 投票权,否则威胁将 AI 和机器人业务迁至别处。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">彭博此前还报道,SpaceX 已探讨与特斯拉合并的可行性,部分投资者也在推动此事。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SpaceX拟在IPO中采用双重股权结构,以强化马斯克的控制权</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpaceX拟在IPO中采用双重股权结构,以强化马斯克的控制权\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-14 08:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><strong>据报道,SpaceX考虑在今年计划的 IPO 中采用双层股权结构,效仿创始人马斯克在特斯拉提出的方案。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/820e6af48b020bffee2bf6c3bc32a456\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1472\" tg-height=\"899\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">双层股权结构会让特定股东持有的股票拥有更高投票权,从而掌控公司决策。这能让马斯克等内部人士即便只持有少数股份,也能维持控制权。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">消息人士称,SpaceX 正在扩充董事会成员,为 IPO 做准备,并推动马斯克在传统火箭卫星业务之外的太空野心。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SpaceX 计划今年晚些时候上市,融资规模或高达500 亿美元,用于建设太空 AI 数据中心和月球工厂。公司近期还收购了马斯克的 xAI,正式切入人工智能领域。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相关讨论仍在进行中,IPO 细节可能调整。SpaceX 暂未回应置评。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">双层股权结构在 Meta、谷歌等科技公司中普遍使用,通常让创始人持股拥有10~20 倍投票权,普通股东仅 1 票。批评者认为这会降低公司问责性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">若采用该结构,马斯克可抵御激进投资者干扰,牢牢掌控公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克曾公开支持双层股权,并试图在特斯拉设立类似结构,以获得至少 25% 投票权,否则威胁将 AI 和机器人业务迁至别处。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">彭博此前还报道,SpaceX 已探讨与特斯拉合并的可行性,部分投资者也在推动此事。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f16a7a67d0d2e6f1e72c43b8fe10d226","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","XOVR":"ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF","DXYZ":"Destiny Tech100 Inc"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101366311","content_text":"据报道,SpaceX考虑在今年计划的 IPO 中采用双层股权结构,效仿创始人马斯克在特斯拉提出的方案。双层股权结构会让特定股东持有的股票拥有更高投票权,从而掌控公司决策。这能让马斯克等内部人士即便只持有少数股份,也能维持控制权。消息人士称,SpaceX 正在扩充董事会成员,为 IPO 做准备,并推动马斯克在传统火箭卫星业务之外的太空野心。SpaceX 计划今年晚些时候上市,融资规模或高达500 亿美元,用于建设太空 AI 数据中心和月球工厂。公司近期还收购了马斯克的 xAI,正式切入人工智能领域。相关讨论仍在进行中,IPO 细节可能调整。SpaceX 暂未回应置评。双层股权结构在 Meta、谷歌等科技公司中普遍使用,通常让创始人持股拥有10~20 倍投票权,普通股东仅 1 票。批评者认为这会降低公司问责性。若采用该结构,马斯克可抵御激进投资者干扰,牢牢掌控公司。马斯克曾公开支持双层股权,并试图在特斯拉设立类似结构,以获得至少 25% 投票权,否则威胁将 AI 和机器人业务迁至别处。彭博此前还报道,SpaceX 已探讨与特斯拉合并的可行性,部分投资者也在推动此事。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DXYZ":2,"TSLA":2,"XOVR":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":540554716119896,"gmtCreate":1772989431366,"gmtModify":1772989433822,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"冬令时太折磨人了[呆住] ","listText":"冬令时太折磨人了[呆住] ","text":"冬令时太折磨人了[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/540554716119896","repostId":"1127578051","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127578051","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1772505697,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127578051?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-03 10:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"提醒:3月8日起美国进入夏令时,美股提前1小时开盘","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127578051","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2026年美国夏令时将于3月8日02:00开始。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2026年美国夏令时将于美东时间3月8日(<em>3月第二个周日</em>)02:00开始,至美东时间11月1日(<em>11月第一个周日</em>) 02:00终止。届时,美股市场常规交易时段对应的北京时间将提前1小时,变为周一至周五21:30至次日 04:00。</p><p><strong>3月9日为进入夏令时后美股首个交易日。</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>盘前交易时段</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>美东时间</strong>:04:00-09:30</p></li><li><p><strong>北京时间</strong>:16:00-21:30</p></li></ul></li><li><p><strong>常规交易时段</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>美东时间</strong>:09:30-16:00</p></li><li><p><strong>北京时间</strong>:21:30 - 次日 04:00</p></li></ul></li><li><p><strong>盘后交易时段</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>美东时间</strong>:16:00-20:00</p></li><li><p><strong>北京时间</strong>:次日 04:00-08:00</p></li></ul></li><li><p><strong>夜盘交易时段</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>美东时间</strong>:20:00 - 次日 04:00</p></li><li><p><strong>北京时间</strong>:08:00-16:00</p></li></ul></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2381112181\">什么是夏令时?</h2><p>夏令时英文叫<strong>Daylight Saving Time</strong>,简称<strong>DST</strong>,也叫daylight time或summer time。高纬度地区由于夏季太阳升起时间明显比冬季早,不少国家为了充分利用夏季的太阳光照,节约照明用电,在天亮早的夏季会人为将时间调快一小时,实行夏时制。</p><p>而当冬季来临,这些国家会将时针再拨回原来的标准时间(Standard Time),冬令时(Winter Time)其实就是标准时间。</p><p>美国夏令时是在3月第二个周日凌晨2AM(当地时间)开始,将时钟调到3点,拨快1小时,俗称“Spring Forward 1 Hour”;而在11月第一个周日凌晨2AM(当地时间)夏令时结束,要将时钟调到1点,拨慢1小时,俗称“Fall Back 1 Hour”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd8ebb9d7b1bc4b00be300326817747\" alt=\"美国夏令时/冬令时 怎么调时间\" title=\"美国夏令时/冬令时 怎么调时间\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"744\"/><span>美国夏令时/冬令时 怎么调时间</span></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>提醒:3月8日起美国进入夏令时,美股提前1小时开盘</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n提醒:3月8日起美国进入夏令时,美股提前1小时开盘\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-03 10:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>2026年美国夏令时将于美东时间3月8日(<em>3月第二个周日</em>)02:00开始,至美东时间11月1日(<em>11月第一个周日</em>) 02:00终止。届时,美股市场常规交易时段对应的北京时间将提前1小时,变为周一至周五21:30至次日 04:00。</p><p><strong>3月9日为进入夏令时后美股首个交易日。</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>盘前交易时段</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>美东时间</strong>:04:00-09:30</p></li><li><p><strong>北京时间</strong>:16:00-21:30</p></li></ul></li><li><p><strong>常规交易时段</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>美东时间</strong>:09:30-16:00</p></li><li><p><strong>北京时间</strong>:21:30 - 次日 04:00</p></li></ul></li><li><p><strong>盘后交易时段</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>美东时间</strong>:16:00-20:00</p></li><li><p><strong>北京时间</strong>:次日 04:00-08:00</p></li></ul></li><li><p><strong>夜盘交易时段</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>美东时间</strong>:20:00 - 次日 04:00</p></li><li><p><strong>北京时间</strong>:08:00-16:00</p></li></ul></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2381112181\">什么是夏令时?</h2><p>夏令时英文叫<strong>Daylight Saving Time</strong>,简称<strong>DST</strong>,也叫daylight time或summer time。高纬度地区由于夏季太阳升起时间明显比冬季早,不少国家为了充分利用夏季的太阳光照,节约照明用电,在天亮早的夏季会人为将时间调快一小时,实行夏时制。</p><p>而当冬季来临,这些国家会将时针再拨回原来的标准时间(Standard Time),冬令时(Winter Time)其实就是标准时间。</p><p>美国夏令时是在3月第二个周日凌晨2AM(当地时间)开始,将时钟调到3点,拨快1小时,俗称“Spring Forward 1 Hour”;而在11月第一个周日凌晨2AM(当地时间)夏令时结束,要将时钟调到1点,拨慢1小时,俗称“Fall Back 1 Hour”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd8ebb9d7b1bc4b00be300326817747\" alt=\"美国夏令时/冬令时 怎么调时间\" title=\"美国夏令时/冬令时 怎么调时间\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"744\"/><span>美国夏令时/冬令时 怎么调时间</span></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3df7d19eb8bb04dc504099c59996e30a","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127578051","content_text":"2026年美国夏令时将于美东时间3月8日(3月第二个周日)02:00开始,至美东时间11月1日(11月第一个周日) 02:00终止。届时,美股市场常规交易时段对应的北京时间将提前1小时,变为周一至周五21:30至次日 04:00。3月9日为进入夏令时后美股首个交易日。盘前交易时段美东时间:04:00-09:30北京时间:16:00-21:30常规交易时段美东时间:09:30-16:00北京时间:21:30 - 次日 04:00盘后交易时段美东时间:16:00-20:00北京时间:次日 04:00-08:00夜盘交易时段美东时间:20:00 - 次日 04:00北京时间:08:00-16:00什么是夏令时?夏令时英文叫Daylight Saving Time,简称DST,也叫daylight time或summer time。高纬度地区由于夏季太阳升起时间明显比冬季早,不少国家为了充分利用夏季的太阳光照,节约照明用电,在天亮早的夏季会人为将时间调快一小时,实行夏时制。而当冬季来临,这些国家会将时针再拨回原来的标准时间(Standard Time),冬令时(Winter Time)其实就是标准时间。美国夏令时是在3月第二个周日凌晨2AM(当地时间)开始,将时钟调到3点,拨快1小时,俗称“Spring Forward 1 Hour”;而在11月第一个周日凌晨2AM(当地时间)夏令时结束,要将时钟调到1点,拨慢1小时,俗称“Fall Back 1 Hour”。美国夏令时/冬令时 怎么调时间","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":2,".SPX":2,".IXIC":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":540013120938064,"gmtCreate":1772857276249,"gmtModify":1772857278523,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 下周再次尝试冲击马圣加仓位,什么无人驾驶l3都不算,也敢让所谓的无人的士上路[微笑] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 下周再次尝试冲击马圣加仓位,什么无人驾驶l3都不算,也敢让所谓的无人的士上路[微笑] ","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 下周再次尝试冲击马圣加仓位,什么无人驾驶l3都不算,也敢让所谓的无人的士上路[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/540013120938064","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539961008378336,"gmtCreate":1772844553130,"gmtModify":1772844565248,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 稳得很","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 稳得很","text":"$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ 稳得很","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a169b909ab57a297f15091dc6e29724c","width":"1122","height":"1737"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539961008378336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539513455866448,"gmtCreate":1772735210577,"gmtModify":1772735213796,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"吹牛王,目标就是为了拉升股价获取更多的财富,能当世界首富的人会是纯良的人吗?光从他四处网上找女生给他生孩子就知道肯定也是个为了满足私欲的人。","listText":"吹牛王,目标就是为了拉升股价获取更多的财富,能当世界首富的人会是纯良的人吗?光从他四处网上找女生给他生孩子就知道肯定也是个为了满足私欲的人。","text":"吹牛王,目标就是为了拉升股价获取更多的财富,能当世界首富的人会是纯良的人吗?光从他四处网上找女生给他生孩子就知道肯定也是个为了满足私欲的人。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539513455866448","repostId":"2617595295","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2617595295","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1772670587,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2617595295?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-05 08:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"马斯克宣称特斯拉 “将造出 AGI”,但多年来 AI 预言屡屡落空!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2617595295","media":"汽车产业前线观察","summary":"埃隆·马斯克今日宣布,特斯拉将成为“造出通用人工智能的企业之一”,并且“很可能率先打造出人形/原子操控形态的AGI”。2023年,马斯克声称特斯拉汽车“拥有意识”,并称公司已掌握“AGI的某些方面”。2024年,他预测 AGI 将在2025年到来。2025年11月,马斯克还在吹捧特斯拉第8代AI芯片,而他此前对第3代芯片配套自动驾驶的承诺仍未兑现。特斯拉投资者已起诉马斯克违反受托责任,指控他利用特斯拉的资源与声誉搭建xAI的基础设施。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260305090014556v201ob1n251v6jw\"/><p>埃隆·马斯克今日宣布,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>将成为“造出通用人工智能(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGBK\">AGI</a>)的企业之一”,并且“很可能率先打造出人形/原子操控形态的AGI”。这是这位特斯拉CEO一连串宏大AI预言中的最新一条。</p><p>问题在于,多年来马斯克一直在就AI突破发表类似言论,而每一次都落空了。如今,特斯拉销量连续第二年下滑、利润暴跌,这看起来更像是他又一次试图把特斯拉绑上AI炒作热潮。</p><p><strong>屡测屡错的预言套路</strong></p><p>马斯克对AI时间表的预测,遵循着一套固定模式:大胆预言 → 未能兑现 → 悄悄延后目标。</p><p>2023年,马斯克声称特斯拉汽车“拥有意识”,并称公司已掌握“AGI的某些方面”。</p><p>2024年,他预测 AGI 将在2025年到来。</p><p>2025年过去,AGI并未出现,他又将时间点推至2026年。</p><p>今年早些时候,他宣称“我们已进入奇点时代”,并表示“2026年是奇点之年”。</p><p>现在,他又改口宣称特斯拉将率先开发出AGI,并且是通过擎天柱(Optimus)机器人项目,以“人形/原子操控形态”实现。</p><p>这一套路,马斯克在特斯拉自动驾驶承诺上早已用过。他在2016年就宣布,所有特斯拉车型已具备完全自动驾驶所需硬件。2019到2025年,他每年都宣称当年底就能实现完全自动驾驶,但从未兑现。正如我们在年终回顾中记录的那样,马斯克2025年的5大特斯拉预言全部落空。特斯拉在奥斯汀的“无人驾驶出租车”车队至今仍只有约30辆车,大部分时间停运,且车内仍必须配备安全员。</p><p>即便在硬件上,承诺也站不住脚。2025年11月,马斯克还在吹捧特斯拉第8代AI芯片,而他此前对第3代芯片配套自动驾驶的承诺仍未兑现。2026年1月,他称AI5芯片设计“即将完成”——而早在半年前,他就宣称已经“完工”。</p><p><strong>特斯拉业务基本面早已是另一幅景象</strong></p><p>就在马斯克大谈AGI和奇点之时,特斯拉的实际业务正在恶化。</p><p>2025年特斯拉交付163万辆汽车,较2024年下滑9%,连续第二年交付量下跌。</p><p>营收约948亿美元,同比下滑约3%,为公司史上首次年度营收下滑。</p><p><span>每股收益</span>预计同比大跌33%。</p><p>2025年第一季度,特斯拉在本就惨淡的预期下再度大幅不及,利润暴跌71%;第二季度利润下滑23%。到2025年底,销量下滑趋势已明确加速。</p><p>与此同时,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>2025年交付226万辆电动车,超越特斯拉成为全球最大电动车制造商。特斯拉在欧洲市场份额持续萎缩:德国销量暴跌48%,法国暴跌40%;在中国市场,本土竞争对手不断蚕食份额。</p><p>尽管如此,特斯拉股价仍远高于其他所有车企,市值约1.5万亿美元。这一估值完全建立在一个叙事上:特斯拉不是一家车企,而是一家AI和机器人公司。这正是马斯克不惜一切代价要维持的故事。</p><p><strong>xAI带来的利益冲突</strong></p><p>AGI宣言还因马斯克自身行为变得更加复杂。多年来,他向特斯拉投资者兜售的愿景是:特斯拉将成为全球领先的现实世界AI公司。但随后他创立了自己控股的私营AI公司xAI,并开始将AI资源与人才从特斯拉抽走。</p><p>特斯拉投资者已起诉马斯克违反受托责任,指控他利用特斯拉的资源与声誉搭建xAI的基础设施。据我们报道,xAI已向其投资者承诺,将为特斯拉擎天柱机器人开发AI——这意味着支撑特斯拉高估值的AI,甚至可能不是特斯拉自研的。</p><p>就在昨天,我们还报道了马斯克的xAI数据中心如何抵消特斯拉的气候成果,一切都以AI的名义。这是一团错综复杂的利益冲突。</p><p><strong>媒体观点</strong></p><p>这是埃隆·马斯克在拼命把特斯拉绑上AI泡沫。考虑到过去三年股价在波动中基本横盘,特斯拉股东并未真正从这一泡沫中获益。</p><p>我们多年来一直在追踪马斯克的AI和自动驾驶承诺,模式清晰无误:</p><p>大胆放话 → 截止日期失效 → 转头炒作下一个概念。</p><p>2023年是“特斯拉汽车有思想”,2024年是“2025年AGI到来”,2025年是奇点,现在又变成特斯拉造出“原子操控形态AGI”——不管那到底是什么意思。</p><p>随着特斯拉销量下滑、史上首次营收下跌、利润崩盘,马斯克总在寻找下一个让投资者聚焦的光鲜概念。无人驾驶出租车没有落地,擎天柱连稳定爆爆米花都做不到,总体规划第四部分里模糊的AI承诺也没有变成产品。于是现在轮到了AGI。</p><p>一个令人难堪的事实是:AI研究界对AGI短期内能否实现、甚至是否会实现,根本没有共识;就连AGI的明确定义都不存在。但马斯克仍以毫无依据的笃定不断发表宣言,而财经媒体持续放大这些言论,因为这能带来流量,也能在短期内提振特斯拉股价。</p><p>对特斯拉股东而言,马斯克与其在X上大谈奇点,不如专注于扭转销量下滑、打造有竞争力的车型。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克宣称特斯拉 “将造出 AGI”,但多年来 AI 预言屡屡落空!</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克宣称特斯拉 “将造出 AGI”,但多年来 AI 预言屡屡落空!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-05 08:29 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260305090016a6a414e7&s=b><strong>汽车产业前线观察</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>埃隆·马斯克今日宣布,特斯拉将成为“造出通用人工智能(AGI)的企业之一”,并且“很可能率先打造出人形/原子操控形态的AGI”。这是这位特斯拉CEO一连串宏大AI预言中的最新一条。问题在于,多年来马斯克一直在就AI突破发表类似言论,而每一次都落空了。如今,特斯拉销量连续第二年下滑、利润暴跌,这看起来更像是他又一次试图把特斯拉绑上AI炒作热潮。屡测屡错的预言套路马斯克对AI时间表的预测,遵循着一套...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260305090016a6a414e7&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0210536198.USD":"JPM US GROWTH \"A\" ACC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TESL":"Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A 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ACC","BK4017":"黄金"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260305090016a6a414e7&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2617595295","content_text":"埃隆·马斯克今日宣布,特斯拉将成为“造出通用人工智能(AGI)的企业之一”,并且“很可能率先打造出人形/原子操控形态的AGI”。这是这位特斯拉CEO一连串宏大AI预言中的最新一条。问题在于,多年来马斯克一直在就AI突破发表类似言论,而每一次都落空了。如今,特斯拉销量连续第二年下滑、利润暴跌,这看起来更像是他又一次试图把特斯拉绑上AI炒作热潮。屡测屡错的预言套路马斯克对AI时间表的预测,遵循着一套固定模式:大胆预言 → 未能兑现 → 悄悄延后目标。2023年,马斯克声称特斯拉汽车“拥有意识”,并称公司已掌握“AGI的某些方面”。2024年,他预测 AGI 将在2025年到来。2025年过去,AGI并未出现,他又将时间点推至2026年。今年早些时候,他宣称“我们已进入奇点时代”,并表示“2026年是奇点之年”。现在,他又改口宣称特斯拉将率先开发出AGI,并且是通过擎天柱(Optimus)机器人项目,以“人形/原子操控形态”实现。这一套路,马斯克在特斯拉自动驾驶承诺上早已用过。他在2016年就宣布,所有特斯拉车型已具备完全自动驾驶所需硬件。2019到2025年,他每年都宣称当年底就能实现完全自动驾驶,但从未兑现。正如我们在年终回顾中记录的那样,马斯克2025年的5大特斯拉预言全部落空。特斯拉在奥斯汀的“无人驾驶出租车”车队至今仍只有约30辆车,大部分时间停运,且车内仍必须配备安全员。即便在硬件上,承诺也站不住脚。2025年11月,马斯克还在吹捧特斯拉第8代AI芯片,而他此前对第3代芯片配套自动驾驶的承诺仍未兑现。2026年1月,他称AI5芯片设计“即将完成”——而早在半年前,他就宣称已经“完工”。特斯拉业务基本面早已是另一幅景象就在马斯克大谈AGI和奇点之时,特斯拉的实际业务正在恶化。2025年特斯拉交付163万辆汽车,较2024年下滑9%,连续第二年交付量下跌。营收约948亿美元,同比下滑约3%,为公司史上首次年度营收下滑。每股收益预计同比大跌33%。2025年第一季度,特斯拉在本就惨淡的预期下再度大幅不及,利润暴跌71%;第二季度利润下滑23%。到2025年底,销量下滑趋势已明确加速。与此同时,比亚迪2025年交付226万辆电动车,超越特斯拉成为全球最大电动车制造商。特斯拉在欧洲市场份额持续萎缩:德国销量暴跌48%,法国暴跌40%;在中国市场,本土竞争对手不断蚕食份额。尽管如此,特斯拉股价仍远高于其他所有车企,市值约1.5万亿美元。这一估值完全建立在一个叙事上:特斯拉不是一家车企,而是一家AI和机器人公司。这正是马斯克不惜一切代价要维持的故事。xAI带来的利益冲突AGI宣言还因马斯克自身行为变得更加复杂。多年来,他向特斯拉投资者兜售的愿景是:特斯拉将成为全球领先的现实世界AI公司。但随后他创立了自己控股的私营AI公司xAI,并开始将AI资源与人才从特斯拉抽走。特斯拉投资者已起诉马斯克违反受托责任,指控他利用特斯拉的资源与声誉搭建xAI的基础设施。据我们报道,xAI已向其投资者承诺,将为特斯拉擎天柱机器人开发AI——这意味着支撑特斯拉高估值的AI,甚至可能不是特斯拉自研的。就在昨天,我们还报道了马斯克的xAI数据中心如何抵消特斯拉的气候成果,一切都以AI的名义。这是一团错综复杂的利益冲突。媒体观点这是埃隆·马斯克在拼命把特斯拉绑上AI泡沫。考虑到过去三年股价在波动中基本横盘,特斯拉股东并未真正从这一泡沫中获益。我们多年来一直在追踪马斯克的AI和自动驾驶承诺,模式清晰无误:大胆放话 → 截止日期失效 → 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重新开始炒ai概念的话至少500往上,三个月内[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539483933483576","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539027161179568,"gmtCreate":1772617513010,"gmtModify":1772617515580,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"造出来和上路是两码事。谁敢让这些L3都不是的所谓的无人的士上路?","listText":"造出来和上路是两码事。谁敢让这些L3都不是的所谓的无人的士上路?","text":"造出来和上路是两码事。谁敢让这些L3都不是的所谓的无人的士上路?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539027161179568","repostId":"2616535522","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2616535522","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1772616183,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2616535522?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-04 17:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉加速Cybercab试生产,得州工厂现25辆样车","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2616535522","media":"DoNews","summary":"2026年3月初,特斯拉在得州超级工厂加快Cybercab无人驾驶出租车试生产。无人机航拍显示厂区共见25辆样车:14辆金属金色车停于出口,9辆在碰撞测试区,2辆处于总装收尾区,另有车辆进行动态路测。该车无方向盘、无踏板,搭载纯视觉FSD系统,售价低于3万美元。采用模块化‘Unboxed’产线,量产计划定于4月启动,较原定时间提前数周。此举标志着特斯拉向规模化自动驾驶服务迈出关键一步。","content":"<html><body><article><p>2026年3月初,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在得州超级工厂加快Cybercab无人驾驶出租车试生产。无人机航拍显示厂区共见25辆样车:14辆金属金色车停于出口,9辆在碰撞测试区,2辆处于总装收尾区,另有车辆进行动态路测。该车无方向盘、无踏板,搭载纯视觉FSD系统,售价低于3万美元。采用模块化‘Unboxed’产线,量产计划定于4月启动,较原定时间提前数周。此举标志着特斯拉向规模化自动驾驶服务迈出关键一步。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260304172420a6a18915&s=b><strong>DoNews</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2026年3月初,特斯拉在得州超级工厂加快Cybercab无人驾驶出租车试生产。无人机航拍显示厂区共见25辆样车:14辆金属金色车停于出口,9辆在碰撞测试区,2辆处于总装收尾区,另有车辆进行动态路测。该车无方向盘、无踏板,搭载纯视觉FSD系统,售价低于3万美元。采用模块化‘Unboxed’产线,量产计划定于4月启动,较原定时间提前数周。此举标志着特斯拉向规模化自动驾驶服务迈出关键一步。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260304172420a6a18915&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU1066051811.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260304172420a6a18915&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2616535522","content_text":"2026年3月初,特斯拉在得州超级工厂加快Cybercab无人驾驶出租车试生产。无人机航拍显示厂区共见25辆样车:14辆金属金色车停于出口,9辆在碰撞测试区,2辆处于总装收尾区,另有车辆进行动态路测。该车无方向盘、无踏板,搭载纯视觉FSD系统,售价低于3万美元。采用模块化‘Unboxed’产线,量产计划定于4月启动,较原定时间提前数周。此举标志着特斯拉向规模化自动驾驶服务迈出关键一步。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYY":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLA":1.97,"TSLZ":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"TSLY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":538687807751640,"gmtCreate":1772536474065,"gmtModify":1772536476549,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"主业是卖饼的公司还想产能利用到100%吗?靠卖饼股价就能上涨何必那么辛苦卖车,发发x点点赞就行了","listText":"主业是卖饼的公司还想产能利用到100%吗?靠卖饼股价就能上涨何必那么辛苦卖车,发发x点点赞就行了","text":"主业是卖饼的公司还想产能利用到100%吗?靠卖饼股价就能上涨何必那么辛苦卖车,发发x点点赞就行了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/538687807751640","repostId":"2616345444","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2616345444","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1772527679,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2616345444?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-03 16:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"卖不动了?据传特斯拉德国工厂产能利用率不到40%!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2616345444","media":"新能源汽车行业...","summary":"数据显示,该工厂届时仅生产14.9万辆Model Y汽车,比2024年减少近30%。特斯拉在其官方商业报告中一直声称,其位于格林海德的工厂产能超过37.5万辆。因此,2025年产量下降近30%意味着该工厂的产能利用率将进一步下降,据计算,届时产能利用率将仅为39.7%,而2024年为56.3%。文章指出,该工厂去年的利润率仅为0.74%。此外,自2020年以来,特斯拉已在格林海德投资超过50亿欧元。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>*温馨提示:</strong><strong>加入知识星球,下载6000+行业报告</strong></p><p><strong>根据数据提供商Inovev的数据,预计到2025年,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>位于德国格林<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000567\">海德</a>的工厂产量将大幅下降。数据显示,该工厂届时仅生产14.9万辆Model Y汽车,比2024年减少近30%。然而,工厂经理安德烈·蒂里格随后对此提出异议,称2025年该工厂仍将生产超过20万辆汽车。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260303172920673v1639ntmthodcyd\"/><p>《商报》(Handelsblatt)周日晚间援引Inovev的数据报道称,去年格林海德工厂仅生产了149,040辆汽车。这一数字远低于2024年和2023年的年度产量,当时格林海德工厂分别生产了211,235辆和192,801辆电动汽车。2025年的产量仅次于2022年开工初期,当时该工厂年中产能提升,生产了50,300辆Model Y。</p><p>特斯拉在其官方商业报告中一直声称,其位于格林海德的工厂产能超过37.5万辆。因此,2025年产量下降近30%意味着该工厂的产能利用率将进一步下降,据计算,届时产能利用率将仅为39.7%,而2024年为56.3%。文章指出,该工厂去年的利润率仅为0.74%。</p><p>关于数据,《商报》(Handelsblatt)指出,Inovev的数据可能包含一些需要后续调整的估算值,因此这些统计数据并非完全可靠。特斯拉方面并未回应该商业日报关于产量数据的问询。然而,周一下午,工厂经理安德烈·蒂里格(André Thierig)在领英(LinkedIn)上就此报道发表了评论。他在帖子中指责《商报》调查不力、报道不专业,其“唯一目的就是与德国金属工业工会(IG Metall)联手发起反特斯拉运动!”</p><p>蒂里格还在帖子中指出,报道中提到的2025年Model Y的产量为14.9万辆是错误的,实际产量超过20万辆。 (“尽管我们在第一季度为了换产新款Model Y而暂停了生产,然后在几周内又将产量提升至每周5000辆。”)蒂里格还反驳了几个月来他一直在淡化格林海德工厂发展状况的说法:“2025年,我们每个季度的产量都比上一季度有所增长。自2022年投产以来,我们在格林海德工厂已经生产了超过70万辆Model Y!此外,我们计划在2026年第一季度比2025年第四季度进一步提高产量。”这位工厂经理还否认了0.74%的利润率——但他没有提供自己的具体数字。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260303172923097v163p5uqw8v3arf\"/><p>值得注意的是,蒂里格(Thierig)和特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克一样指出,Model Y 已连续三年蝉联全球最畅销车型。但这一说法遭到业内许多人士的质疑,尤其是丰田。然而,考虑到特斯拉2025年相当糟糕的销售数据,减产并不令人意外:去年,特斯拉的全球交付量连续第二年下滑。虽然2024年的降幅相对较小,但2025年的降幅则更为显著:交付量下降了9.1%,约为160万辆。</p><p>尽管与格林海德相关的 Model Y 在韩国、泰国、挪威或土耳其等一些国家的注册量累计增加了近 70,000 辆,但这些增长无法弥补美国、中国和欧洲市场的下滑,这三个市场的销量合计减少了 155,000 辆。</p><p>在此背景下,目前围绕勃兰登堡扩建计划的讨论显得十分怪异。众所周知, 特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在工会选举前不久通过视频向员工发表讲话,威胁称如果工厂不能保持“不受外部影响”,他将放弃工厂扩建计划。这位特斯拉首席执行官对工会化的反感是众所周知的,这不仅在美国如此。马斯克过去也曾警告说,德国金属工业工会(IG Metall)对这家德国工厂的工会委员会的影响力过大。</p><p>在视频信息后半段,马斯克对现状给予了积极评价,称其为“世界上最酷的工厂之一”。“柏林超级工厂非常棒,”马斯克说道,“那里的氛围很酷。你走在里面,会发现它非常干净,里里外外都很漂亮。” 除了赞扬工厂及其员工外,视频还提到了格林海德工厂未来的产品。马斯克表示,特斯拉“刚刚开始提高电池的产量”。这令人惊讶,因为就 在去年12月中旬 ,特斯拉还表示计划从2027年起才开始在勃兰登堡州生产电池——而该项目自2022年以来一直处于搁置状态。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260303172928183v163s81risc2055\"/><p>蒂里格在领英帖子中也提到了这一点:“事实上,我们目前正在电池生产方面再投资近1亿欧元,这将创造数百个新的就业岗位。德国还有哪家汽车工厂能拥有如此高的垂直整合水平?”此外,自2020年以来,特斯拉已在格林海德投资超过50亿欧元。蒂里格还散布谣言,称《商报》是德国金属工业工会(IG Metall)的喉舌。最近围绕一场据称被录音的劳资委员会会议的闹剧也表明,在即将到来的选举前,格林海德的管理层和工会之间的局势有多么紧张。 这场冲突的部分内容甚至公开上演了出来。</p><p>周一下午,德国金属工业工会(IG Metall Berlin-Brandenburg-Saxony)也在Thierig的帖子下评论了《商报》(Handelsblatt)的文章。工会写道,《商报》事先曾询问他们对2025年产量14.9万辆这一数字是否现实的看法。“我们的回答是:‘不,这个数字不现实。我们不知道确切的数字,但据我们估计,产量应该超过20万辆。’”</p><p>文章转译自:</p><p>https://www.electrive.net/2026/03/02/tesla-werk-in-gruenheide-soll-nur-noch-zu-40-prozent-ausgelastet-sein/</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>卖不动了?据传特斯拉德国工厂产能利用率不到40%!</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n卖不动了?据传特斯拉德国工厂产能利用率不到40%!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-03 16:47 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260303172948a69ced2c&s=b><strong>新能源汽车行业...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>*温馨提示:加入知识星球,下载6000+行业报告根据数据提供商Inovev的数据,预计到2025年,特斯拉位于德国格林海德的工厂产量将大幅下降。数据显示,该工厂届时仅生产14.9万辆Model Y汽车,比2024年减少近30%。然而,工厂经理安德烈·蒂里格随后对此提出异议,称2025年该工厂仍将生产超过20万辆汽车。《商报》(Handelsblatt)周日晚间援引Inovev的数据报道称,去年格林...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260303172948a69ced2c&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","07766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU0210536198.USD":"JPM US GROWTH \"A\" ACC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH 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ETF"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260303172948a69ced2c&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2616345444","content_text":"*温馨提示:加入知识星球,下载6000+行业报告根据数据提供商Inovev的数据,预计到2025年,特斯拉位于德国格林海德的工厂产量将大幅下降。数据显示,该工厂届时仅生产14.9万辆Model Y汽车,比2024年减少近30%。然而,工厂经理安德烈·蒂里格随后对此提出异议,称2025年该工厂仍将生产超过20万辆汽车。《商报》(Handelsblatt)周日晚间援引Inovev的数据报道称,去年格林海德工厂仅生产了149,040辆汽车。这一数字远低于2024年和2023年的年度产量,当时格林海德工厂分别生产了211,235辆和192,801辆电动汽车。2025年的产量仅次于2022年开工初期,当时该工厂年中产能提升,生产了50,300辆Model Y。特斯拉在其官方商业报告中一直声称,其位于格林海德的工厂产能超过37.5万辆。因此,2025年产量下降近30%意味着该工厂的产能利用率将进一步下降,据计算,届时产能利用率将仅为39.7%,而2024年为56.3%。文章指出,该工厂去年的利润率仅为0.74%。关于数据,《商报》(Handelsblatt)指出,Inovev的数据可能包含一些需要后续调整的估算值,因此这些统计数据并非完全可靠。特斯拉方面并未回应该商业日报关于产量数据的问询。然而,周一下午,工厂经理安德烈·蒂里格(André Thierig)在领英(LinkedIn)上就此报道发表了评论。他在帖子中指责《商报》调查不力、报道不专业,其“唯一目的就是与德国金属工业工会(IG Metall)联手发起反特斯拉运动!”蒂里格还在帖子中指出,报道中提到的2025年Model Y的产量为14.9万辆是错误的,实际产量超过20万辆。 (“尽管我们在第一季度为了换产新款Model Y而暂停了生产,然后在几周内又将产量提升至每周5000辆。”)蒂里格还反驳了几个月来他一直在淡化格林海德工厂发展状况的说法:“2025年,我们每个季度的产量都比上一季度有所增长。自2022年投产以来,我们在格林海德工厂已经生产了超过70万辆Model Y!此外,我们计划在2026年第一季度比2025年第四季度进一步提高产量。”这位工厂经理还否认了0.74%的利润率——但他没有提供自己的具体数字。值得注意的是,蒂里格(Thierig)和特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克一样指出,Model Y 已连续三年蝉联全球最畅销车型。但这一说法遭到业内许多人士的质疑,尤其是丰田。然而,考虑到特斯拉2025年相当糟糕的销售数据,减产并不令人意外:去年,特斯拉的全球交付量连续第二年下滑。虽然2024年的降幅相对较小,但2025年的降幅则更为显著:交付量下降了9.1%,约为160万辆。尽管与格林海德相关的 Model Y 在韩国、泰国、挪威或土耳其等一些国家的注册量累计增加了近 70,000 辆,但这些增长无法弥补美国、中国和欧洲市场的下滑,这三个市场的销量合计减少了 155,000 辆。在此背景下,目前围绕勃兰登堡扩建计划的讨论显得十分怪异。众所周知, 特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在工会选举前不久通过视频向员工发表讲话,威胁称如果工厂不能保持“不受外部影响”,他将放弃工厂扩建计划。这位特斯拉首席执行官对工会化的反感是众所周知的,这不仅在美国如此。马斯克过去也曾警告说,德国金属工业工会(IG Metall)对这家德国工厂的工会委员会的影响力过大。在视频信息后半段,马斯克对现状给予了积极评价,称其为“世界上最酷的工厂之一”。“柏林超级工厂非常棒,”马斯克说道,“那里的氛围很酷。你走在里面,会发现它非常干净,里里外外都很漂亮。” 除了赞扬工厂及其员工外,视频还提到了格林海德工厂未来的产品。马斯克表示,特斯拉“刚刚开始提高电池的产量”。这令人惊讶,因为就 在去年12月中旬 ,特斯拉还表示计划从2027年起才开始在勃兰登堡州生产电池——而该项目自2022年以来一直处于搁置状态。蒂里格在领英帖子中也提到了这一点:“事实上,我们目前正在电池生产方面再投资近1亿欧元,这将创造数百个新的就业岗位。德国还有哪家汽车工厂能拥有如此高的垂直整合水平?”此外,自2020年以来,特斯拉已在格林海德投资超过50亿欧元。蒂里格还散布谣言,称《商报》是德国金属工业工会(IG Metall)的喉舌。最近围绕一场据称被录音的劳资委员会会议的闹剧也表明,在即将到来的选举前,格林海德的管理层和工会之间的局势有多么紧张。 这场冲突的部分内容甚至公开上演了出来。周一下午,德国金属工业工会(IG Metall Berlin-Brandenburg-Saxony)也在Thierig的帖子下评论了《商报》(Handelsblatt)的文章。工会写道,《商报》事先曾询问他们对2025年产量14.9万辆这一数字是否现实的看法。“我们的回答是:‘不,这个数字不现实。我们不知道确切的数字,但据我们估计,产量应该超过20万辆。’”文章转译自:https://www.electrive.net/2026/03/02/tesla-werk-in-gruenheide-soll-nur-noch-zu-40-prozent-ausgelastet-sein/","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TLA":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLA":1.97,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TESL":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":538676173828368,"gmtCreate":1772533708962,"gmtModify":1772533711147,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 下去,昨天收涨是大家认识不到问题严重性[开心] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 下去,昨天收涨是大家认识不到问题严重性[开心] ","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 下去,昨天收涨是大家认识不到问题严重性[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/538676173828368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3561649565466203","authorId":"3561649565466203","name":"Huan娱","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f0e6d86680b202c05ed56a4c11e9bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561649565466203","authorIdStr":"3561649565466203"},"content":"问题不大 拿着就是了","text":"问题不大 拿着就是了","html":"问题不大 拿着就是了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":538400462141000,"gmtCreate":1772466389807,"gmtModify":1772466392398,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"教主的畜牧业还在发力","listText":"教主的畜牧业还在发力","text":"教主的畜牧业还在发力","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/538400462141000","repostId":"2616733862","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2616733862","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1772444954,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2616733862?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-02 17:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"3月全球十大富豪公布 马斯克身家已突破8000亿美元!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2616733862","media":"手机中国","summary":"3月2日,CNMO注意到,在3月份的全球十大富豪中,埃隆·马斯克的身家已突破8000亿美元,再度刷新纪录,与第二名的财富差距扩大至5000亿美元以上。马斯克据悉,2025年10月,马斯克成为全球首位身家达5000亿美元的人,12月又接连突破6000亿、7000亿美元大关。2026年2月,其身家首次突破8000亿美元。佩奇已连续四个月稳居全球富豪榜第二位。","content":"<html><body><article><p>【CNMO科技消息】3月2日,CNMO注意到,在3月份的全球十大富豪中,埃隆·马斯克的身家已突破8000亿美元,再度刷新纪录,与第二名的财富差距扩大至5000亿美元以上。</p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OyoaKBLEpz6MMayHT5dZviVZRv0ZYFJTHyLWantzJSOm8AA/0\"/><p>马斯克</p><p>据悉,2025年10月,马斯克成为全球首位身家达5000亿美元的人,12月又接连突破6000亿、7000亿美元大关。2026年2月,其身家首次突破8000亿美元。他与第二名<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>联合创始人拉里·佩奇的财富差距已超过5000亿美元。</p><p>佩奇已连续四个月稳居全球富豪榜第二位。2月,随着Alphabet、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>股价下跌,包括佩奇在内的五位身全球前十的美国科技巨头,财富均缩水超过200亿美元。其中,亚马逊集团创始人杰夫·贝索斯损失最为惨重——亚马逊股价下跌12%,使其身家减少260亿美元,降至2240亿美元。</p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OBo0EBsKoc5B55kjuEnaqAo9ad_GkZxnkZg24OxuLmWGIAA/0\"/><p>值得一提的是,近日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>召开2025年第四季度财报电话会议,会议上埃隆·马斯克表示,特斯拉将在2026年第二季度结束前正式停产两款高端车型——Model S和Model X。与此同时,特斯拉加州弗里蒙特工厂将全面转型,原Model S/X生产线将改造为Optimus人形机器人量产基地,目标年产100万台。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3月全球十大富豪公布 马斯克身家已突破8000亿美元!</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3月全球十大富豪公布 马斯克身家已突破8000亿美元!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-02 17:49 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260302175213a7311d1c&s=b><strong>手机中国</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>【CNMO科技消息】3月2日,CNMO注意到,在3月份的全球十大富豪中,埃隆·马斯克的身家已突破8000亿美元,再度刷新纪录,与第二名的财富差距扩大至5000亿美元以上。马斯克据悉,2025年10月,马斯克成为全球首位身家达5000亿美元的人,12月又接连突破6000亿、7000亿美元大关。2026年2月,其身家首次突破8000亿美元。他与第二名谷歌联合创始人拉里·佩奇的财富差距已超过5000...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260302175213a7311d1c&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","BK4604":"机器人概念","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260302175213a7311d1c&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2616733862","content_text":"【CNMO科技消息】3月2日,CNMO注意到,在3月份的全球十大富豪中,埃隆·马斯克的身家已突破8000亿美元,再度刷新纪录,与第二名的财富差距扩大至5000亿美元以上。马斯克据悉,2025年10月,马斯克成为全球首位身家达5000亿美元的人,12月又接连突破6000亿、7000亿美元大关。2026年2月,其身家首次突破8000亿美元。他与第二名谷歌联合创始人拉里·佩奇的财富差距已超过5000亿美元。佩奇已连续四个月稳居全球富豪榜第二位。2月,随着Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta、甲骨文股价下跌,包括佩奇在内的五位身全球前十的美国科技巨头,财富均缩水超过200亿美元。其中,亚马逊集团创始人杰夫·贝索斯损失最为惨重——亚马逊股价下跌12%,使其身家减少260亿美元,降至2240亿美元。值得一提的是,近日,特斯拉召开2025年第四季度财报电话会议,会议上埃隆·马斯克表示,特斯拉将在2026年第二季度结束前正式停产两款高端车型——Model S和Model X。与此同时,特斯拉加州弗里蒙特工厂将全面转型,原Model S/X生产线将改造为Optimus人形机器人量产基地,目标年产100万台。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLS":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLA":1.91,"TEST":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":538358190446112,"gmtCreate":1772456058971,"gmtModify":1772456061225,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"\">[微笑] </a>以后可以把座椅换成茅草的,减量不减价又可以大赚一笔。","listText":"<a href=\"\">[微笑] </a>以后可以把座椅换成茅草的,减量不减价又可以大赚一笔。","text":"[微笑] 以后可以把座椅换成茅草的,减量不减价又可以大赚一笔。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/538358190446112","repostId":"2616933140","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2616933140","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1772451130,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2616933140?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-02 19:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉电驱仅有约20个?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2616933140","media":"旺材电机与电控","summary":"26日下午,特斯拉中国副总裁陶琳女士发了一条微博,内容是这样写的:燃油车发动机动辄就有成百上千个零部件,而特斯拉电驱仅有约20个。简而强、少而精,正是特斯拉电动车的底层优势。特斯拉将电驱系统高度集成,精简到几十个核心部件,确实从物理层面上极大地降低了机械故障的概率。其中有一点,当国内已经卷到12合1的时候,特斯拉电驱一直在坚持3合1。至于特斯拉汽车到底如何,广大销售者才有评论权。","content":"<html><body><article><p>26日下午,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>中国副总裁陶琳女士发了一条微博,内容是这样写的:燃油车发动机动辄就有成百上千个零部件,而特斯拉电驱仅有约20个。结构越简单,复杂度越低,故障概率越小。每一次减法背后,都是技术能力的加法。简而强、少而精,正是特斯拉电动车的底层优势。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260302200816698v163eg4vni44vth\"/><p>这条内容,其实核心传达的是特斯拉一直在坚持的第一性原理,不仅仅是对自家三电技术的自信,也是一次品牌发声,值得我们深思。</p><p>第一、<strong>硬件做减法,软件做加法。</strong>特斯拉将电驱系统(电机、电控、减速器)高度集成,精简到几十个核心部件,确实从物理层面上极大地降低了机械故障的概率。硬件的极简是为了给软件,算力等腾出空间,减去的是机械冗余,加上的是算法和智能。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260302200821764v1635ib3tb7iiif\"/><p>第二、<strong>她表达不仅是传统燃油车,还在表达国内市场的“堆料”内卷。</strong>我们国内很多品牌,造车往往是用上“堆料”,冰箱彩电大沙发各种比,但是没有人比轻量化,做加法其实挺容易的,但做减法才难陶琳此时强调“简而强、少而精”,也是在传达的一种价值观:真正的技术壁垒不是零件多、配置花哨,而是底层架构的集成度和高效性。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260302200822645v163lfwyehzmbvi\"/><p>第三、<strong>她想要强化“低成本用车”的标签,</strong>买车不仅是看首付,还要看全生命周期里的用车成本,她强调故障率小,也是在打消车主对于长期持有的顾虑。</p><p>关于特斯拉电驱系统的演进,可以看看下面的文字:</p><p>特点</p><p><strong>第一代电驱(2008,Roadster):</strong></p><p><strong>电动高性能破冰</strong></p><p><strong>核心架构:</strong>异步感应电机(ACIM),获 AC Propulsion 授权;控制器采用96 颗 IGBT 单管并联、三角形布局。</p><p><strong>关键参数:</strong>峰值功率215kW,转速13,500rpm,0-60mph 加速3.7 秒,续航393km。</p><p><strong>技术突破:</strong>首次证明电动车可实现超跑级性能,打破 “电动车 = 低速代步” 认知;采用液冷散热,奠定电驱温控基础。</p><p><strong>定位:</strong>小众高端验证,交付量少,为后续量产积累技术。</p><p>特点</p><p><strong>第二代电驱(2012,Model S/X):</strong></p><p><strong>量产化与集成化起步</strong></p><p><strong>核心架构:</strong>异步感应电机 + T 型三合一集成(电机 + 控制器 + 减速器),控制器升级为叠层三明治立体结构、IGBT 逆插连接。</p><p><strong>关键参数:</strong>峰值功率375kW,转速16,000rpm,功率密度33.3kW/kg,系统效率~83%。</p><p><strong>技术突破:</strong></p><p>▫T 型布局:减速器居中,电机 / 控制器左右对称,体积降15%、成本降15%。</p><p>▫铜芯转子:效率提升15%,持续高功率输出能力增强。</p><p>▫全栈自研:从授权转向完全自研,开启大规模量产。</p><p><strong>定位:</strong>高端<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">豪华</a>纯电,支撑 Model S/X 成为标杆。</p><p>特点</p><p><strong>第三代电驱(2017,Model 3/Y):</strong></p><p><strong>效率革命与大众化</strong></p><p><strong>核心架构:</strong>IPM-SynRM 永磁同步电机(iM42/3D6)+ SiC MOSFET 逆变器,首次实现永磁 + 异步双电机四驱(前异步、后永磁)。</p><p><strong>关键参数:</strong>峰值功率250kW(单后驱)/357kW(四驱),转速18,000rpm,系统最高效率97%,CLTC 综合效率~89%。</p><p><strong>技术突破:</strong></p><p>▫SiC 碳化硅:开关损耗降75%,逆变器体积 / 重量各减30%/57%,散热简化,续航提升5-8%。</p><p>▫3D6 扁线电机:8 层矩形铜导线,槽满率从45%→60%,铜损降10%,功率密度提升。</p><p>▫复合油冷:定子 + 转子双油冷,散热效率 +40%,连续高功率不失速。</p><p>▫高度集成:电机 / 电控 / 减速器深度融合,体积 / 重量大幅优化。</p><p><strong>定位:</strong>大众化主力,支撑 Model 3/Y 成为全球销量冠军,电驱成本显著下探。</p><p>特点</p><p><strong>第四代电驱(2023,Model Y / 改款 Model 3):极致简化与成本重构</strong></p><p><strong>核心架构:</strong>8 层扁线永磁同步电机 + SiC 逆变器 + 一体化集成,“剃刀式” 极简设计。</p><p><strong>关键参数:峰值</strong>功率250kW,转速20,000rpm,功率密度4.2kW/kg,系统成本降至~7000 元(1000 美元),较三代降14%。</p><p><strong>技术突破:</strong></p><p>▫碳纤维套筒转子:抑制高速离心变形,转速突破20,000rpm,功率密度<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603601\">再升</a>。</p><p>▫定子简化:10 层→8 层扁线,物理固定磁钢,减少部件、降本10%+。</p><p>▫免维护油冷:内置不可更换油滤,一体铸造外壳,维护成本归零,轴承寿命延至120 万公里。</p><p>▫搅拌焊接:控制器接插件一体成型,替代螺丝,可靠性 +、成本 -。</p><p><strong>定位:</strong>极致性价比,适配全球规模化生产,电驱成本进入千元级。</p><p>特点</p><p><strong>Plaid 高性能分支(Model S/X Plaid):超跑级动力巅峰</strong></p><p><strong>核心架构:</strong>三台永磁同步电机(前 1 + 后 2)+ 碳化硅 + 碳纤维转子,三电机全驱。</p><p><strong>关键参数:</strong>综合功率1,020hp(750kW),0-60mph 加速2.1 秒,极速322km/h,转速20,000rpm+。</p><p><strong>技术突破:</strong></p><p>▫三电机矢量控制:扭矩分配毫秒级,操控与加速性能拉满。</p><p>▫碳纤维转子 + 油冷 2.0:极致散热与强度,支持持续超高性能输出。</p><p>▫SiC 全栈应用:逆变器效率与功率密度行业顶尖。</p><p>定位:顶级性能旗舰,重新定义电动车加速天花板。</p><p>客观说,特斯拉其实是中国新能源汽车的引路人。它的很多思路是“特立独行”和值得思考的。</p><p>其中有一点,当国内已经卷到12合1的时候,特斯拉电驱一直在坚持3合1。</p><p>这背后,实则蕴含着特斯拉对技术路线、成本控制及市场定位的深思熟虑。</p><p>之前,有位粉丝也咨询过此事:</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260302200830107v163d9tc8aybaga\"/><p>特斯拉自推出其标志性的三合一电驱系统以来,虽在硬件(圆线改扁线,控制器电路板优化)和软件层面持续进行微调和升级,但整体架构保持相对稳定。这种稳健的策略,一方面体现了国外市场迭代速度慢,另一方面也反映了其在成本控制和市场定位上的精准考量。</p><p>消费者买车从来不会因为你是8合1,或者12合1去买你的车,买新能源汽车的影响因素从来都是以下几个:价格、外观内饰、动力、续航里程。</p><p>多合一电驱系统的优势在于能够显著降低制造成本并提高能量转换效率。</p><p>然而,这一转变并非无代价。实现多合一需要重新设计电气架构,甚至可能要求整车平台的重新布局,这无疑是一项巨大的工程挑战和资金投入。</p><p>对于特斯拉而言,其现有的3合1系统已经实现了较高的能量转换效率和较低的百公里电耗。</p><p>至于特斯拉汽车到底如何,广大销售者才有评论权。</p><p>那么,对于陶琳女士的观点,你认同吗?</p><p>内容来源:RIO电驱动、GAF电驱动</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉电驱仅有约20个?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-02 19:32 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2026030220090395429cd1&s=b><strong>旺材电机与电控</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>26日下午,特斯拉中国副总裁陶琳女士发了一条微博,内容是这样写的:燃油车发动机动辄就有成百上千个零部件,而特斯拉电驱仅有约20个。结构越简单,复杂度越低,故障概率越小。每一次减法背后,都是技术能力的加法。简而强、少而精,正是特斯拉电动车的底层优势。这条内容,其实核心传达的是特斯拉一直在坚持的第一性原理,不仅仅是对自家三电技术的自信,也是一次品牌发声,值得我们深思。第一、硬件做减法,软件做加法。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2026030220090395429cd1&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLY":"TSLA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","BK4612":"AI芯片","TSLZ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-T-Rex","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS 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FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2026030220090395429cd1&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2616933140","content_text":"26日下午,特斯拉中国副总裁陶琳女士发了一条微博,内容是这样写的:燃油车发动机动辄就有成百上千个零部件,而特斯拉电驱仅有约20个。结构越简单,复杂度越低,故障概率越小。每一次减法背后,都是技术能力的加法。简而强、少而精,正是特斯拉电动车的底层优势。这条内容,其实核心传达的是特斯拉一直在坚持的第一性原理,不仅仅是对自家三电技术的自信,也是一次品牌发声,值得我们深思。第一、硬件做减法,软件做加法。特斯拉将电驱系统(电机、电控、减速器)高度集成,精简到几十个核心部件,确实从物理层面上极大地降低了机械故障的概率。硬件的极简是为了给软件,算力等腾出空间,减去的是机械冗余,加上的是算法和智能。第二、她表达不仅是传统燃油车,还在表达国内市场的“堆料”内卷。我们国内很多品牌,造车往往是用上“堆料”,冰箱彩电大沙发各种比,但是没有人比轻量化,做加法其实挺容易的,但做减法才难陶琳此时强调“简而强、少而精”,也是在传达的一种价值观:真正的技术壁垒不是零件多、配置花哨,而是底层架构的集成度和高效性。第三、她想要强化“低成本用车”的标签,买车不仅是看首付,还要看全生命周期里的用车成本,她强调故障率小,也是在打消车主对于长期持有的顾虑。关于特斯拉电驱系统的演进,可以看看下面的文字:特点第一代电驱(2008,Roadster):电动高性能破冰核心架构:异步感应电机(ACIM),获 AC Propulsion 授权;控制器采用96 颗 IGBT 单管并联、三角形布局。关键参数:峰值功率215kW,转速13,500rpm,0-60mph 加速3.7 秒,续航393km。技术突破:首次证明电动车可实现超跑级性能,打破 “电动车 = 低速代步” 认知;采用液冷散热,奠定电驱温控基础。定位:小众高端验证,交付量少,为后续量产积累技术。特点第二代电驱(2012,Model S/X):量产化与集成化起步核心架构:异步感应电机 + T 型三合一集成(电机 + 控制器 + 减速器),控制器升级为叠层三明治立体结构、IGBT 逆插连接。关键参数:峰值功率375kW,转速16,000rpm,功率密度33.3kW/kg,系统效率~83%。技术突破:▫T 型布局:减速器居中,电机 / 控制器左右对称,体积降15%、成本降15%。▫铜芯转子:效率提升15%,持续高功率输出能力增强。▫全栈自研:从授权转向完全自研,开启大规模量产。定位:高端豪华纯电,支撑 Model S/X 成为标杆。特点第三代电驱(2017,Model 3/Y):效率革命与大众化核心架构:IPM-SynRM 永磁同步电机(iM42/3D6)+ SiC MOSFET 逆变器,首次实现永磁 + 异步双电机四驱(前异步、后永磁)。关键参数:峰值功率250kW(单后驱)/357kW(四驱),转速18,000rpm,系统最高效率97%,CLTC 综合效率~89%。技术突破:▫SiC 碳化硅:开关损耗降75%,逆变器体积 / 重量各减30%/57%,散热简化,续航提升5-8%。▫3D6 扁线电机:8 层矩形铜导线,槽满率从45%→60%,铜损降10%,功率密度提升。▫复合油冷:定子 + 转子双油冷,散热效率 +40%,连续高功率不失速。▫高度集成:电机 / 电控 / 减速器深度融合,体积 / 重量大幅优化。定位:大众化主力,支撑 Model 3/Y 成为全球销量冠军,电驱成本显著下探。特点第四代电驱(2023,Model Y / 改款 Model 3):极致简化与成本重构核心架构:8 层扁线永磁同步电机 + SiC 逆变器 + 一体化集成,“剃刀式” 极简设计。关键参数:峰值功率250kW,转速20,000rpm,功率密度4.2kW/kg,系统成本降至~7000 元(1000 美元),较三代降14%。技术突破:▫碳纤维套筒转子:抑制高速离心变形,转速突破20,000rpm,功率密度再升。▫定子简化:10 层→8 层扁线,物理固定磁钢,减少部件、降本10%+。▫免维护油冷:内置不可更换油滤,一体铸造外壳,维护成本归零,轴承寿命延至120 万公里。▫搅拌焊接:控制器接插件一体成型,替代螺丝,可靠性 +、成本 -。定位:极致性价比,适配全球规模化生产,电驱成本进入千元级。特点Plaid 高性能分支(Model S/X Plaid):超跑级动力巅峰核心架构:三台永磁同步电机(前 1 + 后 2)+ 碳化硅 + 碳纤维转子,三电机全驱。关键参数:综合功率1,020hp(750kW),0-60mph 加速2.1 秒,极速322km/h,转速20,000rpm+。技术突破:▫三电机矢量控制:扭矩分配毫秒级,操控与加速性能拉满。▫碳纤维转子 + 油冷 2.0:极致散热与强度,支持持续超高性能输出。▫SiC 全栈应用:逆变器效率与功率密度行业顶尖。定位:顶级性能旗舰,重新定义电动车加速天花板。客观说,特斯拉其实是中国新能源汽车的引路人。它的很多思路是“特立独行”和值得思考的。其中有一点,当国内已经卷到12合1的时候,特斯拉电驱一直在坚持3合1。这背后,实则蕴含着特斯拉对技术路线、成本控制及市场定位的深思熟虑。之前,有位粉丝也咨询过此事:特斯拉自推出其标志性的三合一电驱系统以来,虽在硬件(圆线改扁线,控制器电路板优化)和软件层面持续进行微调和升级,但整体架构保持相对稳定。这种稳健的策略,一方面体现了国外市场迭代速度慢,另一方面也反映了其在成本控制和市场定位上的精准考量。消费者买车从来不会因为你是8合1,或者12合1去买你的车,买新能源汽车的影响因素从来都是以下几个:价格、外观内饰、动力、续航里程。多合一电驱系统的优势在于能够显著降低制造成本并提高能量转换效率。然而,这一转变并非无代价。实现多合一需要重新设计电气架构,甚至可能要求整车平台的重新布局,这无疑是一项巨大的工程挑战和资金投入。对于特斯拉而言,其现有的3合1系统已经实现了较高的能量转换效率和较低的百公里电耗。至于特斯拉汽车到底如何,广大销售者才有评论权。那么,对于陶琳女士的观点,你认同吗?内容来源:RIO电驱动、GAF电驱动","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLO":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLA":1.96,"TESL":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"07766":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":538346767606752,"gmtCreate":1772453292008,"gmtModify":1772453294556,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"打击虚假宣传的又一次大胜利,明明l3都不是都敢自称完全自动驾驶","listText":"打击虚假宣传的又一次大胜利,明明l3都不是都敢自称完全自动驾驶","text":"打击虚假宣传的又一次大胜利,明明l3都不是都敢自称完全自动驾驶","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/538346767606752","repostId":"2616354283","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2616354283","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1772450113,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2616354283?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-02 19:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉推出 2026.2.9 软件更新,移除“Autopilot”名称","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2616354283","media":"IT之家","summary":"随着今日早些时候 2026.2.9 版本软件更新的推送,该公司已开始对其驾驶辅助系统中的多项核心功能进行重命名。根据官方更新说明,此次“Autopilot 命名更新”本质上仅为文字修改。特斯拉长期与监管机构存在分歧,后者认为“Autopilot”“完全自动驾驶”等名称易误导消费者。为避免在本土市场面临为期 60 天的禁售风险,特斯拉做出妥协:新车移除了 Autopilot,营销宣传转向“FSD”。尽管“Autopilot”之名正逐渐淡出,但特斯拉打造无监督自动驾驶系统的终极目标并未改变。","content":"<html><body><article><p>IT之家 3 月 2 日消息,据 Not a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> App 报道,特斯拉正与其最知名(也最具争议)的品牌名称划清界限。随着今日早些时候 2026.2.9 版本软件更新的推送,该公司已开始对其驾驶辅助系统中的多项核心功能进行重命名。</p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OPUaV_gsWOhiJVWLeTxFcgDceDSAF_5hnQcGeJqYlIqRoAA/0\"/><p>根据官方更新说明,此次“Autopilot 命名更新”本质上仅为文字修改。特斯拉明确表示:“此次变更仅更新车辆中部分功能名称与文字显示,不会改变功能的实际工作方式。”</p><p>具体而言,沿用已久的“自动辅助导航驾驶(Navigate on Autopilot)”更名为“自动转向导航(Navigate on Autosteer)”;此前名为“FSD 计算机”的硬件,现已正式定名为“AI 计算机”。</p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Og8_8rlGA9gGqoofTisrRcieR03aXwEcnfqss51iQ1NDEAA/0\"/><p>与此同时,车辆设置菜单也迎来全面调整:原主菜单中的“Autopilot”板块,已正式更名为“自动驾驶(Self-Driving)”。</p><p>不过,全新品牌标识在界面中的落地并不统一,部分车主可能会感到困惑。如今大部分界面已使用简化版“自动驾驶(Self-Driving)”标签,但速度配置文件菜单中仍保留“完全自动驾驶(Full Self-Driving)”字样,“FSD(监督模式)统计”板块也沿用了旧缩写。若想让此次更名真正生效、减少车主困惑,这些改动需全面覆盖所有子菜单与状态提示。</p><p>特斯拉长期与监管机构存在分歧,后者认为“Autopilot(自动辅助驾驶)”“完全自动驾驶(Full Self-Driving)”等名称易误导消费者。</p><p>最近的压力来自加州车辆管理局(DMV),该局指控特斯拉存在虚假广告宣传。为避免在本土市场面临为期 60 天的禁售风险,特斯拉做出妥协:新车移除了 Autopilot,营销宣传转向“FSD(监督模式)”。</p><p>IT之家注意到,目前特斯拉正起诉加州车辆管理局,试图撤销虚假广告的认定,但此次软件更名表明公司正采取谨慎态度。</p><p>这并非仅在美国存在的问题:2023 年特斯拉在德国也曾遭遇类似法律纠纷,此类案例还有很多。就在上月,特斯拉已在美国和加拿大全面停止新车订单中的 Autopilot 选配,新车出厂仅配备交通感知巡航控制(TACC)。</p><p>除名称变更外,FSD 用户还将迎来两项调整。最值得关注的是,当前使用 FSD v14 版本的用户,将首次收到 2026.2 版本软件分支更新。</p><p>FSD v14 现已成为该服务订阅用户的“标准版本”。此举有助于统一车队软件版本,让更多驾驶员使用同一版神经网络,为特斯拉研发无需驾驶员监督的软件版本铺路。</p><p>此次品牌更名,也承接了去年秋季车载界面中经典 Autopilot 图标下线的动作。</p><p>尽管“Autopilot”之名正逐渐淡出,但特斯拉打造无监督自动驾驶系统的终极目标并未改变。将硬件更名为“AI 计算机”,意在强调车辆本质是带轮子的机器人,由人工智能驱动,而非仅依靠预设程序运行。</p><p>随着特斯拉从传统车企转向以 AI 和机器人为核心的未来布局,这些“语义层面”的调整,或许只是其大规模品牌形象重塑的开端。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉推出 2026.2.9 软件更新,移除“Autopilot”名称</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉推出 2026.2.9 软件更新,移除“Autopilot”名称\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-02 19:15 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260302191833a698d3d7&s=b><strong>IT之家</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>IT之家 3 月 2 日消息,据 Not a Tesla App 报道,特斯拉正与其最知名(也最具争议)的品牌名称划清界限。随着今日早些时候 2026.2.9 版本软件更新的推送,该公司已开始对其驾驶辅助系统中的多项核心功能进行重命名。根据官方更新说明,此次“Autopilot 命名更新”本质上仅为文字修改。特斯拉明确表示:“此次变更仅更新车辆中部分功能名称与文字显示,不会改变功能的实际工作方式。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260302191833a698d3d7&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","TSL":"1.25倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US 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Self-Driving)”字样,“FSD(监督模式)统计”板块也沿用了旧缩写。若想让此次更名真正生效、减少车主困惑,这些改动需全面覆盖所有子菜单与状态提示。特斯拉长期与监管机构存在分歧,后者认为“Autopilot(自动辅助驾驶)”“完全自动驾驶(Full Self-Driving)”等名称易误导消费者。最近的压力来自加州车辆管理局(DMV),该局指控特斯拉存在虚假广告宣传。为避免在本土市场面临为期 60 天的禁售风险,特斯拉做出妥协:新车移除了 Autopilot,营销宣传转向“FSD(监督模式)”。IT之家注意到,目前特斯拉正起诉加州车辆管理局,试图撤销虚假广告的认定,但此次软件更名表明公司正采取谨慎态度。这并非仅在美国存在的问题:2023 年特斯拉在德国也曾遭遇类似法律纠纷,此类案例还有很多。就在上月,特斯拉已在美国和加拿大全面停止新车订单中的 Autopilot 选配,新车出厂仅配备交通感知巡航控制(TACC)。除名称变更外,FSD 用户还将迎来两项调整。最值得关注的是,当前使用 FSD v14 版本的用户,将首次收到 2026.2 版本软件分支更新。FSD v14 现已成为该服务订阅用户的“标准版本”。此举有助于统一车队软件版本,让更多驾驶员使用同一版神经网络,为特斯拉研发无需驾驶员监督的软件版本铺路。此次品牌更名,也承接了去年秋季车载界面中经典 Autopilot 图标下线的动作。尽管“Autopilot”之名正逐渐淡出,但特斯拉打造无监督自动驾驶系统的终极目标并未改变。将硬件更名为“AI 计算机”,意在强调车辆本质是带轮子的机器人,由人工智能驱动,而非仅依靠预设程序运行。随着特斯拉从传统车企转向以 AI 和机器人为核心的未来布局,这些“语义层面”的调整,或许只是其大规模品牌形象重塑的开端。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLP":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLA":1.96,"TSLW":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSLS":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":537361093424536,"gmtCreate":1772212680905,"gmtModify":1772212683302,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 不久之后主营业务会变成贩卖信仰,信仰不够就出来预言一下[开心] 失败了,大家都自适应理解,成功了,被奉为人类救世主。","listText":"<a 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失败了,大家都自适应理解,成功了,被奉为人类救世主。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/537361093424536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1897,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":537290942756496,"gmtCreate":1772193635392,"gmtModify":1772193637900,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"20年后马圣是否还在世都难说,那么久了特斯拉除了汽车和储能业务有什么算是成功的吗?就要登月了,红警玩多了还是吸多了","listText":"20年后马圣是否还在世都难说,那么久了特斯拉除了汽车和储能业务有什么算是成功的吗?就要登月了,红警玩多了还是吸多了","text":"20年后马圣是否还在世都难说,那么久了特斯拉除了汽车和储能业务有什么算是成功的吗?就要登月了,红警玩多了还是吸多了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/537290942756496","repostId":"1112954160","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112954160","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1772193299,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112954160?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-27 19:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"马斯克:特斯拉将在20年内上月球建厂,建议投资者长期持股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112954160","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"更多属于战略层面的展望。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>继提出xAI要在月球建造AI卫星工厂后,马斯克又称20年内特斯拉工厂也将现身月球。马斯克同时还提到,建议投资者长期持有特斯拉股票,因为公司“未来会非常有价值”。</p><p>需要指出的是,马斯克这一说法是在讨论企业长期愿景时提出,并未描述具体实施路线,更多属于战略层面的展望。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克:特斯拉将在20年内上月球建厂,建议投资者长期持股</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克:特斯拉将在20年内上月球建厂,建议投资者长期持股\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-27 19:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>继提出xAI要在月球建造AI卫星工厂后,马斯克又称20年内特斯拉工厂也将现身月球。马斯克同时还提到,建议投资者长期持有特斯拉股票,因为公司“未来会非常有价值”。</p><p>需要指出的是,马斯克这一说法是在讨论企业长期愿景时提出,并未描述具体实施路线,更多属于战略层面的展望。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6a2d85f5e8cd12b5acb8ead395b91e6","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112954160","content_text":"继提出xAI要在月球建造AI卫星工厂后,马斯克又称20年内特斯拉工厂也将现身月球。马斯克同时还提到,建议投资者长期持有特斯拉股票,因为公司“未来会非常有价值”。需要指出的是,马斯克这一说法是在讨论企业长期愿景时提出,并未描述具体实施路线,更多属于战略层面的展望。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":537245098648232,"gmtCreate":1772184239204,"gmtModify":1772184616861,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这位科技企业家现在已经完全不要脸了,去年展望的无人的士铺开和机器人量产都没实现,到出乱说保持热度了。","listText":"这位科技企业家现在已经完全不要脸了,去年展望的无人的士铺开和机器人量产都没实现,到出乱说保持热度了。","text":"这位科技企业家现在已经完全不要脸了,去年展望的无人的士铺开和机器人量产都没实现,到出乱说保持热度了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/537245098648232","repostId":"2614883306","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2614883306","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1772182416,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2614883306?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-27 16:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"马斯克展望特斯拉未来:20年内或登月建厂 前景“极其光明”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2614883306","media":"ITBEAR科技资讯","summary":"特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在近期与柏林超级工厂负责人安德烈·蒂埃里格的对话中,对公司的长期发展路径作出大胆展望。他提出,人类工业活动或将突破地球引力范围,特斯拉有望在二十年内实现月球表面工厂的落地运营。针对资本市场关切,马斯克用\"极其光明\"形容特斯拉的成长前景。他透露,SpaceX的星际运输系统与特斯拉的能源解决方案存在技术协同空间,这种跨领域创新或将重塑未来工业生产模式。","content":"<html><body><article><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在近期与柏林超级工厂负责人安德烈·蒂埃里格的对话中,对公司的长期发展路径作出大胆展望。他提出,人类工业活动或将突破地球引力范围,特斯拉有望在二十年内实现月球表面工厂的落地运营。</p><p>这位科技企业家在访谈中描绘了极具未来感的产业图景:\"当时间跨度延伸至20年维度,我确信特斯拉的制造版图将延伸至地外天体。\"他特别强调,月球基地建设将依托公司现有的能源技术与自动化生产体系,形成地月联动的全新工业生态。</p><p>针对资本市场关切,马斯克用\"极其光明\"形容特斯拉的成长前景。他指出,随着能源存储业务的持续突破和自动驾驶技术的商业化落地,公司正步入指数级增长通道。这种判断与特斯拉近期在柏林工厂实现的产能爬坡形成呼应,该基地作为欧洲制造中心,其高效运作验证了全球化布局的战略价值。</p><p>值得关注的是,马斯克将地外建厂构想与现有业务形成逻辑闭环。他透露,SpaceX的星际运输系统与特斯拉的能源解决方案存在技术协同空间,这种跨领域创新或将重塑未来工业生产模式。尽管未披露具体实施路径,但月球工厂的设想已为资本市场提供新的想象维度。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克展望特斯拉未来:20年内或登月建厂 前景“极其光明”</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260227171323a7261fad&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","TLA":"GraniteShares Autocallable TSLA ETF","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","07766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","TSDD":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) 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Acc","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","BK4543":"AI","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","UFO":"Procure Space ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260227171323a7261fad&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2614883306","content_text":"特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在近期与柏林超级工厂负责人安德烈·蒂埃里格的对话中,对公司的长期发展路径作出大胆展望。他提出,人类工业活动或将突破地球引力范围,特斯拉有望在二十年内实现月球表面工厂的落地运营。这位科技企业家在访谈中描绘了极具未来感的产业图景:\"当时间跨度延伸至20年维度,我确信特斯拉的制造版图将延伸至地外天体。\"他特别强调,月球基地建设将依托公司现有的能源技术与自动化生产体系,形成地月联动的全新工业生态。针对资本市场关切,马斯克用\"极其光明\"形容特斯拉的成长前景。他指出,随着能源存储业务的持续突破和自动驾驶技术的商业化落地,公司正步入指数级增长通道。这种判断与特斯拉近期在柏林工厂实现的产能爬坡形成呼应,该基地作为欧洲制造中心,其高效运作验证了全球化布局的战略价值。值得关注的是,马斯克将地外建厂构想与现有业务形成逻辑闭环。他透露,SpaceX的星际运输系统与特斯拉的能源解决方案存在技术协同空间,这种跨领域创新或将重塑未来工业生产模式。尽管未披露具体实施路径,但月球工厂的设想已为资本市场提供新的想象维度。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLR":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLA":1.96,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"TSLS":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":537157686920856,"gmtCreate":1772161102524,"gmtModify":1772161748008,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"典型的信徒思维,不利于马圣拉升股价的都是假的[开心] ","listText":"典型的信徒思维,不利于马圣拉升股价的都是假的[开心] ","text":"典型的信徒思维,不利于马圣拉升股价的都是假的[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/537157686920856","repostId":"2614042044","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2614042044","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1772111294,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2614042044?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-26 21:08","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉加州无人驾驶“画饼”?监管记录显示:路测里程已连续六年为零","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2614042044","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"特斯拉在推进加州Robotaxi服务上毫无实质进展:路测里程已连续六年为零(仅562英里),远未达到获取运营许可的5万英里门槛。马斯克归咎审批流程,但专家指出现实恰恰相反:公司连最基础的测试要求都未完成,目前在湾区所谓的“Robotaxi”实为人类辅助驾驶服务。","content":"<html><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克多次承诺将在加州推出无人驾驶出租车(Robotaxi)服务,但最新监管记录表明,该公司在实际推进审批合规方面未取得任何实质性进展。</p>\n<p>据路透社报道,<strong>加州机动车辆管理局(DMV)的未公开记录及该机构发言人证实,特斯拉在2025年未采取任何行动以获取相关运营许可</strong>。数据显示,<strong>该公司在加州道路上的自动驾驶路测里程已连续第六年为零。</strong></p>\n<p>这一停滞状态直接冲击了支撑特斯拉1.5万亿美元市值的核心叙事。投资者长期押注特斯拉能够顺利运营庞大的无人驾驶车队并实现软件订阅的规模化变现,而加州作为美国最大的汽车市场,是实现这一战略雄心的关键支柱。</p>\n<p>尽管马斯克屡次将服务延期归咎于审批流程漫长,但南卡罗来纳大学法学教授、自动驾驶专家 Bryant Walker Smith 指出,<strong>特斯拉试图传递“企业已准备就绪而监管滞后”的信号,但现实情况恰恰相反。</strong></p>\n<h2><strong>路测数据面临合规门槛</strong></h2>\n<p>在加州现行的监管体系中,记录测试里程是无人驾驶企业获得商业运营许可的核心前提。据路透社报道,若要在加州部署类似Alphabet旗下Waymo的完全无人驾驶网约车服务,企业必须依次通过DMV和负责商业网约车监管的加州公用事业委员会的一系列审批。</p>\n<p><strong>目前,特斯拉仅持有DMV的入门级许可,该许可要求测试时必须有安全员坐在驾驶座上。</strong>DMV发言人表示,特斯拉尚未申请任何额外许可。根据预计于今年晚些时候敲定的DMV新规草案,企业在申请无安全员测试许可前,必须在安全员监督下于加州公共道路上完成至少5万英里(约80,467公里)的自动驾驶测试。</p>\n<p>然而,特斯拉自2019年以来未向州监管机构记录任何里程,自2016年以来的总里程仅为562英里。作为对比,<strong>Waymo在2014至2023年间积累了超过1300万英里的测试里程,并获得了七项不同的监管批准,最终获准向乘客收费。Waymo目前是三家获得加州无人驾驶商业运营许可的公司之一,也是唯一一家获准运营符合马斯克愿景规模车队的企业。</strong></p>\n<h2><strong>监管壁垒与业务现状</strong></h2>\n<p>特斯拉目前在实际运营中采取了规避高监管壁垒的策略。该公司仅在监管要求宽松得多的得克萨斯州奥斯汀运营着一个小型Robotaxi试点项目。</p>\n<p>在加州旧金山湾区,特斯拉去年7月启动了一项所谓的“Robotaxi”服务。但据加州监管机构及特斯拉对客户的披露信息显示,这并非真正的无人驾驶出租车,而是由人类司机使用特斯拉“完全自动驾驶”(FSD)辅助软件提供的专车服务,该软件并不具备完全自动驾驶能力。</p>\n<p>针对合规进程的迟缓,马斯克在去年10月的财报电话会议上向分析师解释称,公司对安全极度偏执,对进入新市场采取“谨慎态度”。<strong>他同时暗示加州监管是主要障碍,称该州审批流程极其漫长。</strong></p>\n<p>特斯拉在去年的书面评论中也对加州DMV拟议的自动驾驶规则修订提出了批评,质疑州内测试要求及最低里程门槛的必要性,并抱怨针对碰撞及系统故障的报告要求“过于繁琐”。对于上述监管记录与进度问题,特斯拉未回应置评请求。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉加州无人驾驶“画饼”?监管记录显示:路测里程已连续六年为零\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-26 21:08 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766277><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克多次承诺将在加州推出无人驾驶出租车(Robotaxi)服务,但最新监管记录表明,该公司在实际推进审批合规方面未取得任何实质性进展。\n据路透社报道,加州机动车辆管理局(DMV)的未公开记录及该机构发言人证实,特斯拉在2025年未采取任何行动以获取相关运营许可。数据显示,该公司在加州道路上的自动驾驶路测里程已连续第六年为零。\n这一停滞状态直接冲击了支撑特斯拉1.5万亿美元...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766277\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRSH":"做空TSLA 期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","TEST":"YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF","TESL":"Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A 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SGD-H1"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766277","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2614042044","content_text":"特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克多次承诺将在加州推出无人驾驶出租车(Robotaxi)服务,但最新监管记录表明,该公司在实际推进审批合规方面未取得任何实质性进展。\n据路透社报道,加州机动车辆管理局(DMV)的未公开记录及该机构发言人证实,特斯拉在2025年未采取任何行动以获取相关运营许可。数据显示,该公司在加州道路上的自动驾驶路测里程已连续第六年为零。\n这一停滞状态直接冲击了支撑特斯拉1.5万亿美元市值的核心叙事。投资者长期押注特斯拉能够顺利运营庞大的无人驾驶车队并实现软件订阅的规模化变现,而加州作为美国最大的汽车市场,是实现这一战略雄心的关键支柱。\n尽管马斯克屡次将服务延期归咎于审批流程漫长,但南卡罗来纳大学法学教授、自动驾驶专家 Bryant Walker Smith 指出,特斯拉试图传递“企业已准备就绪而监管滞后”的信号,但现实情况恰恰相反。\n路测数据面临合规门槛\n在加州现行的监管体系中,记录测试里程是无人驾驶企业获得商业运营许可的核心前提。据路透社报道,若要在加州部署类似Alphabet旗下Waymo的完全无人驾驶网约车服务,企业必须依次通过DMV和负责商业网约车监管的加州公用事业委员会的一系列审批。\n目前,特斯拉仅持有DMV的入门级许可,该许可要求测试时必须有安全员坐在驾驶座上。DMV发言人表示,特斯拉尚未申请任何额外许可。根据预计于今年晚些时候敲定的DMV新规草案,企业在申请无安全员测试许可前,必须在安全员监督下于加州公共道路上完成至少5万英里(约80,467公里)的自动驾驶测试。\n然而,特斯拉自2019年以来未向州监管机构记录任何里程,自2016年以来的总里程仅为562英里。作为对比,Waymo在2014至2023年间积累了超过1300万英里的测试里程,并获得了七项不同的监管批准,最终获准向乘客收费。Waymo目前是三家获得加州无人驾驶商业运营许可的公司之一,也是唯一一家获准运营符合马斯克愿景规模车队的企业。\n监管壁垒与业务现状\n特斯拉目前在实际运营中采取了规避高监管壁垒的策略。该公司仅在监管要求宽松得多的得克萨斯州奥斯汀运营着一个小型Robotaxi试点项目。\n在加州旧金山湾区,特斯拉去年7月启动了一项所谓的“Robotaxi”服务。但据加州监管机构及特斯拉对客户的披露信息显示,这并非真正的无人驾驶出租车,而是由人类司机使用特斯拉“完全自动驾驶”(FSD)辅助软件提供的专车服务,该软件并不具备完全自动驾驶能力。\n针对合规进程的迟缓,马斯克在去年10月的财报电话会议上向分析师解释称,公司对安全极度偏执,对进入新市场采取“谨慎态度”。他同时暗示加州监管是主要障碍,称该州审批流程极其漫长。\n特斯拉在去年的书面评论中也对加州DMV拟议的自动驾驶规则修订提出了批评,质疑州内测试要求及最低里程门槛的必要性,并抱怨针对碰撞及系统故障的报告要求“过于繁琐”。对于上述监管记录与进度问题,特斯拉未回应置评请求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSII":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLA":1.96,"TSLS":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSDD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":264,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"content":"L3都称不上怎么好意思自称自动驾驶的?","text":"L3都称不上怎么好意思自称自动驾驶的?","html":"L3都称不上怎么好意思自称自动驾驶的?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":536998368900592,"gmtCreate":1772124040273,"gmtModify":1772124108596,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"waymo成本高且地区局限性高。特斯拉成本低但是软件有效迭代很慢,就算先做出来了无人的士估计也没法真正铺开无监管上路,纯纯糊弄信徒投资者的噱头罢了。","listText":"waymo成本高且地区局限性高。特斯拉成本低但是软件有效迭代很慢,就算先做出来了无人的士估计也没法真正铺开无监管上路,纯纯糊弄信徒投资者的噱头罢了。","text":"waymo成本高且地区局限性高。特斯拉成本低但是软件有效迭代很慢,就算先做出来了无人的士估计也没法真正铺开无监管上路,纯纯糊弄信徒投资者的噱头罢了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/536998368900592","repostId":"2614202967","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2614202967","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1772121691,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2614202967?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-27 00:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"10城 VS 1城,3000辆 VS44辆!Waymo狂奔,特斯拉自动驾驶梦碎?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2614202967","media":"汽车产业前线观察","summary":"约 3000 辆Waymo 当前运营车辆仅 44 辆特斯拉奥斯汀运营车辆据“无人驾驶出租车追踪网”数据,目前奥斯汀仅有44辆特斯拉无人车在跑。Waymo的车辆早已实现多年无安全员运营,而特斯拉近期虽着手取消安全监督员,但推进十分迟缓。目前,监管机构正在调查Waymo车辆在校车周边的行驶表现,以及一起低速撞伤儿童的事故。显然,目前的天平,正重重地倾向Waymo一端。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260227001215979v163wae8fbji02i\"/><p>就在本周二,当Waymo宣布在达拉斯、休斯顿等四座<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300778\">新城市</a>开放服务时,另一个名字却显得格格不入——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>。一边是10座城市的真实运营网络,另一边是埃隆·马斯克口中那个“迟迟未到”的未来。</p><p><strong>01. 扩张:从“试点”到“常态”的加速</strong></p><p>Waymo的扩张速度正在刷新行业的认知。自2009年起步以来,这家隶属于字母表公司的企业,终于在2025年底迎来了爆发。</p><p>数据显示,去年年初,Waymo在旧金山、洛杉矶和菲尼克斯的周订单量仅为20万单;而到了2025年底,这一数字在六座城市中已飙升至40万单。更令人震惊的是其目标:今年年底前,周订单量突破100万单,并将业务拓展至全球至少20座城市。</p><p>本周的扩张公告中,达拉斯、休斯顿、圣安东尼奥和奥兰多正式加入Waymo版图。值得注意的是,这次官宣中只字未提<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">优步</a>(Uber)。此前,Waymo部分车辆需通过优步平台呼叫,但如今看来,Waymo似乎已底气十足地认为:<strong>自己完全有能力独立实现规模化,无需他人搀扶。</strong></p><p><strong>02. 对比:马斯克的“预期”与现实的“骨感”</strong></p><p>将目光转向特斯拉,画面则截然不同。去年夏天,特斯拉的无人驾驶出租车服务终于在奥斯汀上线,但随后的规模化进程却缓慢得令人咋舌。</p><p><strong>约 3000 辆</strong>Waymo 当前运营车辆</p><p><strong>仅 44 辆</strong>特斯拉奥斯汀运营车辆</p><p>据“无人驾驶出租车追踪网”数据,目前奥斯汀仅有44辆特斯拉无人车在跑。回想去年10月,马斯克曾信誓旦旦地预测:到2025年底,特斯拉将在奥斯汀部署500辆无人车,甚至覆盖美国半数人口。然而现实是,该公司仍仅在奥斯汀运营着寥寥无几的Model Y,且多次未能兑现类似承诺。</p><p>更关键的差距在于“去安全员”的进度。Waymo的车辆早已实现多年无安全员运营,而特斯拉近期虽着手取消安全监督员,但推进十分迟缓。在自动驾驶领域,“有安全员”和“无安全员”之间,隔着整个商业模式的鸿沟。</p><p><strong>03. 隐忧:规模化的挑战从未停止</strong></p><p>当然,Waymo的狂飙并非没有隐忧。雄心勃勃的全球扩张计划绝非一蹴而就。面对各地五花八门的法规,以及在新市场搭建车队管理、充电体系的重任,Waymo仍需如履薄冰。</p><p>此外,安全问题始终是悬在头顶的达摩克利斯之剑。目前,监管机构正在调查Waymo车辆在校车周边的行驶表现,以及一起低速撞伤儿童的事故。在新市场投放几辆车是一回事,将规模扩大到数千辆并确保绝对安全,则是另一番挑战。</p><p>“特斯拉支持者常辩称,凭借庞大的保有量和纯视觉方案,其规模化能力将超越Waymo。或许未来某天他们会被证明是对的,但从当下的时间轴来看,实际发展趋势却截然相反。”</p><p><strong>结语:实干与口号的终极较量</strong></p><p>自动驾驶的下半场,不再是比谁的发布会更炫酷,而是比谁的车队跑得更多、更稳、更安全。</p><p>Waymo用10座城市的实地运营证明了“渐进式路线”的可行性,而特斯拉则仍在为兑现马斯克的宏大预言而挣扎。在这场“现实”与“幻想”的博弈中,时间和里程数是最公正的裁判。</p><p>对于普通用户而言,谁能真正提供安全、便捷的无人出行服务,谁就是赢家。显然,目前的天平,正重重地倾向Waymo一端。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>10城 VS 1城,3000辆 VS44辆!Waymo狂奔,特斯拉自动驾驶梦碎?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n10城 VS 1城,3000辆 VS44辆!Waymo狂奔,特斯拉自动驾驶梦碎?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-27 00:01 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260227001218954224aa&s=b><strong>汽车产业前线观察</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>就在本周二,当Waymo宣布在达拉斯、休斯顿等四座新城市开放服务时,另一个名字却显得格格不入——特斯拉。一边是10座城市的真实运营网络,另一边是埃隆·马斯克口中那个“迟迟未到”的未来。01. 扩张:从“试点”到“常态”的加速Waymo的扩张速度正在刷新行业的认知。自2009年起步以来,这家隶属于字母表公司的企业,终于在2025年底迎来了爆发。数据显示,去年年初,Waymo在旧金山、洛杉矶和菲尼克斯...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260227001218954224aa&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSYY":"收益增强TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TSDD":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","BK4588":"碎股","LU2417539215.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) 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Y,且多次未能兑现类似承诺。更关键的差距在于“去安全员”的进度。Waymo的车辆早已实现多年无安全员运营,而特斯拉近期虽着手取消安全监督员,但推进十分迟缓。在自动驾驶领域,“有安全员”和“无安全员”之间,隔着整个商业模式的鸿沟。03. 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[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e252eda3edd97c0f0e617b6c218fa548","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":16,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388350320689584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3488407236949514","authorId":"3488407236949514","name":"稳扎稳打的勇爸爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b93adac01897c2b29d022dc7bc678a9d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3488407236949514","idStr":"3488407236949514"},"content":"买期权呀,时间价值有损耗呀,万一来个大涨就傻了","text":"买期权呀,时间价值有损耗呀,万一来个大涨就傻了","html":"买期权呀,时间价值有损耗呀,万一来个大涨就傻了"},{"author":{"id":"3559984961569694","authorId":"3559984961569694","name":"南山小鱼人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb76ca2ace8362af8e23def4f95d9a8f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3559984961569694","idStr":"3559984961569694"},"content":"这笔put亏了14700多刀吧","text":"这笔put亏了14700多刀吧","html":"这笔put亏了14700多刀吧"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848958347,"gmtCreate":1635955907637,"gmtModify":1635957311381,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560418186602071","idStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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舒服了,终于开始连续下行","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":37,"commentSize":28,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848958347","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3472098980994884","authorId":"3472098980994884","name":"拒绝游泳的鱼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52fff20daaba255185a5f3bd46574b0f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3472098980994884","idStr":"3472098980994884"},"content":"回调空间有限","text":"回调空间有限","html":"回调空间有限"},{"author":{"id":"290453790419835","authorId":"290453790419835","name":"财富888","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"290453790419835","idStr":"290453790419835"},"content":"继续等你的950嘛","text":"继续等你的950嘛","html":"继续等你的950嘛"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":482284250611784,"gmtCreate":1758774145252,"gmtModify":1758774147446,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560418186602071","idStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"车企还不是得靠卖车的利好,卖车不好跌得少,教主的教育真不错","listText":"车企还不是得靠卖车的利好,卖车不好跌得少,教主的教育真不错","text":"车企还不是得靠卖车的利好,卖车不好跌得少,教主的教育真不错","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/482284250611784","repostId":"2570408735","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2570408735","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1758750631,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2570408735?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-25 05:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高盛之后瑞银跟进,华尔街竞相上调特斯拉三季度交付预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2570408735","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"瑞银将特斯拉第三季度交付预测上调至47.5万辆,高于市场共识,美国通胀削减法案税收优惠到期推动美国市场交付强劲,欧洲、中国市场的交付也表现不俗。尽管如此,瑞银仍维持“卖出”评级,预期第四季度交付将环比下滑,并指出特斯拉股价当前更多由AI题材驱动,而非汽车业务基本面。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>瑞银将特斯拉第三季度交付预测上调至47.5万辆,高于市场共识,美国通胀削减法案税收优惠到期推动美国市场交付强劲,欧洲、中国市场的交付也表现不俗。尽管如此,瑞银仍维持“卖出”评级,预期第四季度交付将环比下滑,并指出特斯拉股价当前更多由AI题材驱动,而非汽车业务基本面。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉预计将在10月初公布2025年第三季度的交付报告,多家投行已提前上调交付预期。高盛分析师此前已上调交付量预测并提高目标价,而瑞银(UBS)分析师在本周也上调交付预估至超出市场普遍共识的水平,但仍维持对特斯拉股票的“卖出”(Sell)评级。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>瑞银最新预测特斯拉第三季度交付量为47.5万辆,较去年同期增长3%,较上一季度增长24%,明显高于此前预估的43.1万辆。</strong>这一数字比市场数据平台Visible Alpha的共识高出约8%,但与投资机构买方的预期更加接近,后者普遍预估交付量在47万至47.5万辆之间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">瑞银分析师Joseph Spak在周一发布的报告中表示:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“我们认为,我们的新预测更加贴近买方对于47万至47.5万辆区间的预期。”</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但他也指出:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“尽管最终数据可能符合买方预期,但我们通常发现,股价仍会根据是否超出或低于媒体的‘头条数字’而产生反应。”</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e222fca6e46bbf77139138eb88e10025\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"293\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉股价周三收涨近4%,今年迄今涨幅接近10%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3802563c9fe30ce2449b19b890f13f3a\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Spak在报告中指出,瑞银之所以上调预测,是因为第三季度在多个市场的交付表现超出预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先,在美国市场,消费者为了赶上2025年9月底即将到期的《通胀削减法案》(IRA)下7500美元电动车税收抵免,推动了特斯拉销量大增。瑞银认为,本季度可能创下自2023年中以来美国季度交付量最高纪录,甚至可能是有史以来最高水平。然而,分析师也警告,当前的强劲需求很可能属于“提前透支”,意味着即使特斯拉在第四季度推出“低价版”Model Y,交付量仍可能环比下降。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">欧洲市场也展现复苏迹象。数据显示,第三季度前两个月,特斯拉在欧洲前八大市场的交付量环比增长约22%。中国市场方面,零售交付量(即批发减去出口)环比增长约45%,表现同样稳健。此外,瑞银指出,土耳其和韩国市场的交付增长也值得关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在库存方面,瑞银预计本季度交付量将超过产量,幅度可能达到7%,这将有助于特斯拉降低库存水平。</strong>相比之下,2025年第二季度产量曾超出交付量约2.6万辆,占比6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">瑞银同时预计,特斯拉将在财报中披露本季度能源储能系统部署情况。尽管受到会计确认规则的限制,该数据难以即时核实,瑞银预测部署量为10.4GWh,环比增长8%,基本与Visible Alpha市场共识的10.9GWh持平,也高于上一季度的9.6GWh。Spak提醒投资者,能源储能业务具有周期性波动,单季度数据不宜过度解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">展望未来,瑞银预计2025年第四季度交付量将为42.8万辆,环比下降10%,同比下降14%。这一预估已经考虑了中国市场Model Y L车型的推出,以及美国市场可能面世的“低价版”Model Y。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">全年方面,瑞银将2025年交付总量预期从151万辆上调至162万辆,尽管同比仍下降9%,但与市场共识持平。2026年交付量预期则略下调至160万辆,较市场共识低14%。瑞银表示,将在10月2日特斯拉公布实际交付数据后更新其财务模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管短期交付数据有所改善,Spak在报告最后仍强调:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“特斯拉股价的主要驱动力更多来自于人工智能的市场叙事,而非其汽车主业。”</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3661ffb4c9afdc6c80a97065821246\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛之后瑞银跟进,华尔街竞相上调特斯拉三季度交付预期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛之后瑞银跟进,华尔街竞相上调特斯拉三季度交付预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-25 05:50 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3756211><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>瑞银将特斯拉第三季度交付预测上调至47.5万辆,高于市场共识,美国通胀削减法案税收优惠到期推动美国市场交付强劲,欧洲、中国市场的交付也表现不俗。尽管如此,瑞银仍维持“卖出”评级,预期第四季度交付将环比下滑,并指出特斯拉股价当前更多由AI题材驱动,而非汽车业务基本面。特斯拉预计将在10月初公布2025年第三季度的交付报告,多家投行已提前上调交付预期。高盛分析师此前已上调交付量预测并提高目标价,而瑞银...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3756211\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3756211","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2570408735","content_text":"瑞银将特斯拉第三季度交付预测上调至47.5万辆,高于市场共识,美国通胀削减法案税收优惠到期推动美国市场交付强劲,欧洲、中国市场的交付也表现不俗。尽管如此,瑞银仍维持“卖出”评级,预期第四季度交付将环比下滑,并指出特斯拉股价当前更多由AI题材驱动,而非汽车业务基本面。特斯拉预计将在10月初公布2025年第三季度的交付报告,多家投行已提前上调交付预期。高盛分析师此前已上调交付量预测并提高目标价,而瑞银(UBS)分析师在本周也上调交付预估至超出市场普遍共识的水平,但仍维持对特斯拉股票的“卖出”(Sell)评级。瑞银最新预测特斯拉第三季度交付量为47.5万辆,较去年同期增长3%,较上一季度增长24%,明显高于此前预估的43.1万辆。这一数字比市场数据平台Visible Alpha的共识高出约8%,但与投资机构买方的预期更加接近,后者普遍预估交付量在47万至47.5万辆之间。瑞银分析师Joseph Spak在周一发布的报告中表示:“我们认为,我们的新预测更加贴近买方对于47万至47.5万辆区间的预期。”但他也指出:“尽管最终数据可能符合买方预期,但我们通常发现,股价仍会根据是否超出或低于媒体的‘头条数字’而产生反应。”特斯拉股价周三收涨近4%,今年迄今涨幅接近10%。Spak在报告中指出,瑞银之所以上调预测,是因为第三季度在多个市场的交付表现超出预期。首先,在美国市场,消费者为了赶上2025年9月底即将到期的《通胀削减法案》(IRA)下7500美元电动车税收抵免,推动了特斯拉销量大增。瑞银认为,本季度可能创下自2023年中以来美国季度交付量最高纪录,甚至可能是有史以来最高水平。然而,分析师也警告,当前的强劲需求很可能属于“提前透支”,意味着即使特斯拉在第四季度推出“低价版”Model Y,交付量仍可能环比下降。欧洲市场也展现复苏迹象。数据显示,第三季度前两个月,特斯拉在欧洲前八大市场的交付量环比增长约22%。中国市场方面,零售交付量(即批发减去出口)环比增长约45%,表现同样稳健。此外,瑞银指出,土耳其和韩国市场的交付增长也值得关注。在库存方面,瑞银预计本季度交付量将超过产量,幅度可能达到7%,这将有助于特斯拉降低库存水平。相比之下,2025年第二季度产量曾超出交付量约2.6万辆,占比6%。瑞银同时预计,特斯拉将在财报中披露本季度能源储能系统部署情况。尽管受到会计确认规则的限制,该数据难以即时核实,瑞银预测部署量为10.4GWh,环比增长8%,基本与Visible Alpha市场共识的10.9GWh持平,也高于上一季度的9.6GWh。Spak提醒投资者,能源储能业务具有周期性波动,单季度数据不宜过度解读。展望未来,瑞银预计2025年第四季度交付量将为42.8万辆,环比下降10%,同比下降14%。这一预估已经考虑了中国市场Model Y L车型的推出,以及美国市场可能面世的“低价版”Model Y。全年方面,瑞银将2025年交付总量预期从151万辆上调至162万辆,尽管同比仍下降9%,但与市场共识持平。2026年交付量预期则略下调至160万辆,较市场共识低14%。瑞银表示,将在10月2日特斯拉公布实际交付数据后更新其财务模型。尽管短期交付数据有所改善,Spak在报告最后仍强调:“特斯拉股价的主要驱动力更多来自于人工智能的市场叙事,而非其汽车主业。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.5,"TSLL":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4200747074916302","authorId":"4200747074916302","name":"sacredling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a5dd9339674724cde9c0cb76421647d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4200747074916302","idStr":"4200747074916302"},"content":"200多喊到现在400多了,倒是使劲空嘛,说再多都没用","text":"200多喊到现在400多了,倒是使劲空嘛,说再多都没用","html":"200多喊到现在400多了,倒是使劲空嘛,说再多都没用"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":409615494414632,"gmtCreate":1741013693712,"gmtModify":1741019403619,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560418186602071","idStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>精彩的拉高出货,准备好继续向下了吗?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>精彩的拉高出货,准备好继续向下了吗?","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 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