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南山小鱼人
老虎证券首席交易员
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南山小鱼人
01-09
相信
南山小鱼人
01-03
$百度(BIDU)$
想做空的不能急,最起码等申请结果出来了再说 一、前期筹备与架构重组(1-3个月) - 核心动作:委任保荐人、律师、审计师等中介;清理股权、搭建合规上市架构(如红筹/VIE);开展业务、财务、法律尽调;规范内控与关联交易;起草招股书。 二、申报与监管审核(2-4个月) - 核心动作:提交A1申请表格及招股书草案;联交所多轮问询与回复;上市委员会聆讯,获“原则上批准”;同步向香港证监会备案。 - 关键节点:首轮问询通常在收表后约15个营业日发出 。 三、全球路演与定价(2-3周) - 核心动作:向机构/散户路演推介;引入基石投资者;簿记建档,确定发行价;国际配售(约90%)+公开发售(约10%),设回拨机制。 四、股份配售与资金交割(1周) - 核心动作:完成股份分配;资金到账(扣除费用);签订上市协议、缴纳费用、股份登记;发布最终招股书与配售结果。 五挂牌上市与后续合规(1天+持续) - 核心动作:上市仪式、敲钟挂牌交易;上市后履行信息披露、合规治理、关联交易管控等持续义务。 全程速记:筹备→申报→路演→配售→挂牌,关键里程碑是A1递表、聆讯通过、定价、挂牌。
南山小鱼人
2025-12-19
最近的那一次就是 11月那次流动性危机,大空头Michael Burry,后来又在市场悄无声息下慢慢淡下去了,所以做多准没错,不反人性
南山小鱼人
2025-12-19
BBB
南山小鱼人
2025-12-17
为啥每次大盘不行,就出来讲话,[笑哭]
抱歉,原内容已删除
南山小鱼人
2025-11-22
有人说是要把mstr给拉下水,不知真假
南山小鱼人
2025-11-22
牛
@火火兔爸:
$礼来(LLY)$
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
感谢英伟达pltr和礼来共同促使我三年一个月达成五百倍收益
南山小鱼人
2025-11-22
$BIDU 20251121 109.0 PUT$
今天是被达子治愈的一天
南山小鱼人
2025-11-19
太惨了,是大空头,我们没救了
抱歉,原内容已删除
南山小鱼人
2025-11-18
也是失速了
抱歉,原内容已删除
南山小鱼人
2025-11-18
$百度集团-SW(09888)$
这是谁的部将,这么着急出售
南山小鱼人
2025-11-05
低估了CUDA的统治力
抱歉,原内容已删除
南山小鱼人
2025-10-18
逝者安息
抱歉,原内容已删除
南山小鱼人
2025-10-17
924新政牛市记录 • 9.18-19号fomc议息会议,鲍威尔讲话 下调50bp,美联储基准利率来到4.75-5.25区间。此时中概股稍有波动 • 9月24日上午,中国人民银行、金融监管总局、证监会联合出台一揽子金融政策。央行明确表示:“在今年年内还将视市场流动性的状况,可能择机进一步下调存款准备金率0.25-0.5个百分点。a股直接2700到3000点,此时中概股开始波动了。 • 9月25号 ,东风导弹发射 • 9月26日,中央政治局会议:1、要降低存款准备金率,实施有力度的降息。2、要促进房地产市场止跌回稳,对商品房建设要严控增量、优化存量、提高质量,加大“白名单”项目贷款投放力度,支持盘活存量闲置土地。3、要回应群众关切,调整住房限购政策,降低存量房贷利率,抓紧完善土地、财税、金融等政策,推动构建房地产发展新模式。 • 9.27日,央行公告,自2024年9月27日起,下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点(不含已执行5%存款准备金率的金融机构)。 • 10.4号 美非农数据报表,降息预期下调 • 10.4日 欧盟电动汽车关税 • 10.8日,国新办新闻发布会,内容不及预期 • 10.10号,央行创设 5000亿的SFISF,短暂波动 • 10.12号,彭博消息预测 政策不及预期,yang夜盘开始涨了 • 10.18号,央行互换便利,和 降准降息 第一阶段告一段落了
南山小鱼人
2025-10-12
$Summit State Bank(SSBI)$
有人关注它吗
南山小鱼人
2025-08-21
$百度(BIDU)$
都在犹豫,
南山小鱼人
2025-08-13
[可爱] [捂脸]
抱歉,原内容已删除
南山小鱼人
2025-08-04
pltr真的可以吗,
南山小鱼人
2025-08-04
广告股 meta reddit app
南山小鱼人
2025-08-01
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
抱歉,原内容已删除
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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三天涨了3.4%,已然将“CPI走低、通胀进一步好转”的预期写进价格里。为什么投资者能做如此超前乐观的预期?第一、数据滞后性。就业指标和CPI指数都是滞后的经济数据。例如,组成CPI的几个大项目中——能源价格已经开始回调,22年12月石油价格甚至同比低于21年12月,食品价格虽然坚挺,但环比增速也从年中的高点回落,服务价格中占比最高的房租,租房市场反应到CPI中一般有一个季度左右的滞后,而22年中以后由于银行利率的升高,房贷市场下降,租房市场曾经有一段时期的火爆,不过也因多行业的裁员、劳动参与率低等环境下没有继续上涨的动力,但房租也没有下降的趋势,应该是一个能保持平稳的趋势。其他更偏可选消费测的方面,除了交通服务相关的增速较高(但比例不高),甚至有同比下降的(二手车等)第二、美联储很透明。虽然包括鲍威尔在内的美联储高管,无论是FOMC会议、在外公开讲话,都想要尽可能地对市场保持一定政策新鲜感(不想让市场引领政策),但是在2022年,几乎每次都是市场把联储官员猜得一干二净。即便有几次美联储官员嘴硬,到头来身体还是很诚实的。眼下美联储的态度是:不能当做通胀问题完全解决,即使滞后一点,也需要在看到滞后数据有明显下降之后再考虑软化紧缩政策。事实上,最终不管是不是5%的顶点,美联储都会在通胀回落之后开始退坡。比如23年下半年若CPI降至7%以下,稳定下降,那美联储不可能置若罔闻,硬性将利率保持在5%以上,这与他们长期目标2%不符。所以,美联储能做什么操作,市场完全就可以根据数据指标来先行观","text":"本周最大的宏观事件就是今天(1月12日)要公布的12月CPI数据了。全球投资者都需要关注这个数据,因为它是给美联储货币政策提供最重要导向的数据。市场进入本周之后,不但交易活跃,而且还挺乐观。$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 三天涨了3.4%,已然将“CPI走低、通胀进一步好转”的预期写进价格里。为什么投资者能做如此超前乐观的预期?第一、数据滞后性。就业指标和CPI指数都是滞后的经济数据。例如,组成CPI的几个大项目中——能源价格已经开始回调,22年12月石油价格甚至同比低于21年12月,食品价格虽然坚挺,但环比增速也从年中的高点回落,服务价格中占比最高的房租,租房市场反应到CPI中一般有一个季度左右的滞后,而22年中以后由于银行利率的升高,房贷市场下降,租房市场曾经有一段时期的火爆,不过也因多行业的裁员、劳动参与率低等环境下没有继续上涨的动力,但房租也没有下降的趋势,应该是一个能保持平稳的趋势。其他更偏可选消费测的方面,除了交通服务相关的增速较高(但比例不高),甚至有同比下降的(二手车等)第二、美联储很透明。虽然包括鲍威尔在内的美联储高管,无论是FOMC会议、在外公开讲话,都想要尽可能地对市场保持一定政策新鲜感(不想让市场引领政策),但是在2022年,几乎每次都是市场把联储官员猜得一干二净。即便有几次美联储官员嘴硬,到头来身体还是很诚实的。眼下美联储的态度是:不能当做通胀问题完全解决,即使滞后一点,也需要在看到滞后数据有明显下降之后再考虑软化紧缩政策。事实上,最终不管是不是5%的顶点,美联储都会在通胀回落之后开始退坡。比如23年下半年若CPI降至7%以下,稳定下降,那美联储不可能置若罔闻,硬性将利率保持在5%以上,这与他们长期目标2%不符。所以,美联储能做什么操作,市场完全就可以根据数据指标来先行观","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4db0e658139980b34ca2f3c1364a8f0","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b65b866da2584e7f68643147722d6f8","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae89944ab09916eedd56a9288be4589c","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628727755","isVote":2,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"vote":{"id":2518,"gmtBegin":1673507453402,"gmtEnd":1673526561776,"type":1,"upper":1,"title":"你觉得12月CPI数据会?","choices":[{"id":9408,"sort":1,"name":"低于预期的6.5%(好转)","userSize":22,"voted":false},{"id":9409,"sort":2,"name":"与预期基本持平(好转)","userSize":13,"voted":false},{"id":9410,"sort":3,"name":"高于预期的6.5%(恶化)","userSize":12,"voted":false}]},"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":270778656174128,"gmtCreate":1707145832318,"gmtModify":1707205195979,"author":{"id":"3559984961569694","authorId":"3559984961569694","name":"南山小鱼人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb76ca2ace8362af8e23def4f95d9a8f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559984961569694","idStr":"3559984961569694"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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