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2021-05-17

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2021-04-20

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2021-05-05

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2021-06-05

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Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>

2021-06-03

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2021-05-23

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2021-05-20

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2021-04-27

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Tesla posts record net income of $438 million, revenue surges by 74%<blockquote>特斯拉净利润创历史新高 4.38 亿美元，收入激增 74%</blockquote>

2021-04-14

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2021-04-05

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3 Beaten-Down Stocks That Could Double Your Money<blockquote>3 只被击败的股票可以让你的钱翻倍</blockquote>

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Thank you.","listText":"Please drop a like. Thank you.","text":"Please drop a like. Thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112995500","repostId":"1154529120","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154529120","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622810459,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1154529120?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 20:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154529120","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:. Alibaba Group'","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险并存，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以当前相当低的估值购买的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 efetova/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了高增长的中国消费市场的机会。同时，通过一系列的创业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在额外的行业，比如云计算。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。看到股价上涨至 500 美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这在短期内不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自首次公开募股以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但还应该提到的是，2020 年下半年股价确实下跌，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服的 IPO 计划被叫停，2020 年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价现在基本与一年前持平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在那段时间内继续取得强劲的业绩。例如，上一季度阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，约为50%。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴财报发布中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于年化用户增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW还设法将其 EBITDA 同比增长 25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管对评级管理关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但仍实现了这一目标。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，营业收入增长速度更快，经阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款调整后，营业收入同比增长 48%。我认为，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的，以便更清楚地了解阿里巴巴平均一个季度的潜在“核心”盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技公司而言，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是由于投资者情绪疲软导致中国风险敞口和对监管的担忧导致的多重压缩的结果。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前 220 美元的价格计算，与目前分析师一致的目标价 298 美元相比，阿里巴巴的股价有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨 35%。分析师目标价通常以 1 年为期限发布，因此，如果分析师社区是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项很好的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个价格目标似乎一点也不离谱，因为 298 美元相当于今年预期净利润的约 29 倍，或明年净利润的 23 倍。当我们谈论 2022 年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你看的是12个月的窗口，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从长远来看，那么 500 美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能达到的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为 20 美元，并且市盈率为 25，那么股票的交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 25 美元，市盈率为 20 倍，那么股票交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 17 美元，交易价格为净利润的 29 倍，那么股价将（略低于）500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有许多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收入就越低。这反过来意味着价格目标可以更快实现，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们查看阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为 30-40 倍，相对于目前的股票估值（约为今年收益的 20 倍），其交易价格显然大幅溢价。我认为目前的估值太低了，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到 30 倍、35 倍甚至 40 倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股票估值可能会更低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，股票确实有一些估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设股票未来的交易价格是净利润的23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大盘股的估值相比，也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊 (AMZN) 的交易价格是今年市盈率的 59 倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用 23 倍市盈率使阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为 21.70 美元。什么时候会是这样？在下图中，我们看到了今年、明年（2022 财年）和 2023 财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW到 2023 年将无法实现每股 22 美元的盈利，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到 2023 年每股收益会增长 100% 以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约 27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约 1.5 年的时间才能将每股收益从 15.20 美元（2023 年估计）增长到我们的目标 21.70 美元。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024 年和 2025 年的增长率仅为 20%，到 2025 年底，每股收益也可能达到 21.70 美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到 2025 年底（即 4.5 年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能达到 500 美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要高市盈率——我相信，在净利润的 23 倍下，阿里巴巴-SW不会很贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守，假设 2023 年每股收益预测过高 10%，并且 2023 年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长 17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年 27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW 2026 年的每股收益将达到 21.70 美元，未来 5.5 年内股价将升至 500 美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来 5.5 年内股价从当前水平上涨 130%，年化回报率为 16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结这一部分，我会说<i>是的，爸爸可以达到 500 美元</i>——但实际上这需要几年时间。到 2020 年代中期，这对我来说似乎是一个非常容易实现的目标，尽管当然，没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司从多个长期宏观趋势中实现了强劲的增长和利润，例如中国不断增长的消费者支出、不断增长的电子商务市场份额和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能是一个非常有益的游戏的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个有力选择。我属于后一类，因此以当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将有显着上涨空间。然而，根据你的风险承受能力以及你如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，你可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 20:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险并存，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以当前相当低的估值购买的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 efetova/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了高增长的中国消费市场的机会。同时，通过一系列的创业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在额外的行业，比如云计算。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。看到股价上涨至 500 美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这在短期内不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自首次公开募股以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但还应该提到的是，2020 年下半年股价确实下跌，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服的 IPO 计划被叫停，2020 年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价现在基本与一年前持平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在那段时间内继续取得强劲的业绩。例如，上一季度阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，约为50%。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴财报发布中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于年化用户增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW还设法将其 EBITDA 同比增长 25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管对评级管理关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但仍实现了这一目标。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，营业收入增长速度更快，经阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款调整后，营业收入同比增长 48%。我认为，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的，以便更清楚地了解阿里巴巴平均一个季度的潜在“核心”盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技公司而言，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是由于投资者情绪疲软导致中国风险敞口和对监管的担忧导致的多重压缩的结果。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前 220 美元的价格计算，与目前分析师一致的目标价 298 美元相比，阿里巴巴的股价有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨 35%。分析师目标价通常以 1 年为期限发布，因此，如果分析师社区是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项很好的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个价格目标似乎一点也不离谱，因为 298 美元相当于今年预期净利润的约 29 倍，或明年净利润的 23 倍。当我们谈论 2022 年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你看的是12个月的窗口，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从长远来看，那么 500 美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能达到的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为 20 美元，并且市盈率为 25，那么股票的交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 25 美元，市盈率为 20 倍，那么股票交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 17 美元，交易价格为净利润的 29 倍，那么股价将（略低于）500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有许多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收入就越低。这反过来意味着价格目标可以更快实现，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们查看阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为 30-40 倍，相对于目前的股票估值（约为今年收益的 20 倍），其交易价格显然大幅溢价。我认为目前的估值太低了，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到 30 倍、35 倍甚至 40 倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股票估值可能会更低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，股票确实有一些估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设股票未来的交易价格是净利润的23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大盘股的估值相比，也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊 (AMZN) 的交易价格是今年市盈率的 59 倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用 23 倍市盈率使阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为 21.70 美元。什么时候会是这样？在下图中，我们看到了今年、明年（2022 财年）和 2023 财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW到 2023 年将无法实现每股 22 美元的盈利，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到 2023 年每股收益会增长 100% 以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约 27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约 1.5 年的时间才能将每股收益从 15.20 美元（2023 年估计）增长到我们的目标 21.70 美元。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024 年和 2025 年的增长率仅为 20%，到 2025 年底，每股收益也可能达到 21.70 美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到 2025 年底（即 4.5 年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能达到 500 美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要高市盈率——我相信，在净利润的 23 倍下，阿里巴巴-SW不会很贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守，假设 2023 年每股收益预测过高 10%，并且 2023 年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长 17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年 27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW 2026 年的每股收益将达到 21.70 美元，未来 5.5 年内股价将升至 500 美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来 5.5 年内股价从当前水平上涨 130%，年化回报率为 16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结这一部分，我会说<i>是的，爸爸可以达到 500 美元</i>——但实际上这需要几年时间。到 2020 年代中期，这对我来说似乎是一个非常容易实现的目标，尽管当然，没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司从多个长期宏观趋势中实现了强劲的增长和利润，例如中国不断增长的消费者支出、不断增长的电子商务市场份额和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能是一个非常有益的游戏的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个有力选择。我属于后一类，因此以当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将有显着上涨空间。然而，根据你的风险承受能力以及你如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，你可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154529120","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.\nI believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.\nIn the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.\n\nPhoto by efetova/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAlibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.\nBABA Stock Price\nSince its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:\nData byYCharts\nShares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.\nAlibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and fears about regulation.\nAt its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500?\nThe answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.\nWe see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:\nData byYCharts\nAt 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.\nI still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.\nIf we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:\nData byYCharts\nIf analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.\nData byYCharts\nAnalysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.\nWe can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.\nSo, to sum this section up, I'd sayyes, BABA can hit $500-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.\nIs Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAlibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.\nFor those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. 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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620309854,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188985089?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-06 22:04","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Yale's chief investment manager David Swensen dies at 67<blockquote>耶鲁大学首席投资经理大卫·斯文森去世，享年 67 岁</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188985089","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"David Swensen, the head of Yale University’s endowment who helped reshape how institutions manage th","content":"<p>David Swensen, the head of Yale University’s endowment who helped reshape how institutions manage their money, has died from cancer aged 67.</p><p><blockquote>耶鲁大学捐赠基金负责人大卫-斯文森（David Swensen）因癌症去世，享年 67 岁。</blockquote></p><p>After stints at Salomon Brothers and Lehman Brothers, Swensen returned to his alma mater in 1985 to lead its investment office. At the time, endowments were typically conservatively managed, but Swensen overhauled the model dramatically, taking advantage of their long-term focus to invest heavily in the nascent private equity and hedge fund industries.</p><p><blockquote>在所罗门兄弟和雷曼兄弟任职后，斯文森于 1985 年回到母校领导其投资办公室。当时，捐赠基金通常是保守管理的，但斯文森对这种模式进行了大刀阔斧的改革，利用其长期关注的优势，大力投资于新兴的私募股权和对冲基金行业。</blockquote></p><p>His approach was so successful it revolutionised how endowments and many other institutional investors allocate their money, and the “Yale model” spread and helped change the wider investment industry.</p><p><blockquote>他的方法非常成功，彻底改变了捐赠基金和许多其他机构投资者的资金分配方式，“耶鲁模式 ”传播开来，帮助改变了更广泛的投资行业。</blockquote></p><p>“With his guidance, Yale’s endowment yielded returns that established him as a legend among institutional investors,” Peter Salovey, Yale’s president, said in a statement. “A natural teacher, he prepared a generation of institutional investors who have gone on to lead investment offices at other colleges and universities, further extending the scope of David’s influence.”</p><p><blockquote>“耶鲁大学校长彼得-萨洛维（Peter Salovey）在一份声明中说：”在他的指导下，耶鲁大学的捐赠基金获得了回报，使他成为机构投资者中的传奇人物。“作为一名天生的教师，他培养了一代机构投资者，他们后来在其他学院和大学领导投资办公室，进一步扩大了大卫的影响范围”。</blockquote></p><p>The Yale Investments Office managed $31.2bn as of June 2020, and says it has averaged annual returns of 12. 4 per cent a year over the past three decades. In the 2021 fiscal year its contributions accounted for over a third of the university’s overall revenues.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年6月，耶鲁投资办公室管理着312亿美元的资产，并表示在过去30年中，该办公室的平均年回报率为12. 4%。在 2021 财年，其捐款占大学总收入的三分之一以上。</blockquote></p><p>Almost a quarter of the endowment is invested in venture capital, and combined with private equity, hedge funds and real estate, so-called “alternative” investments account for nearly three quarters of its assets.</p><p><blockquote>近四分之一的捐赠基金投资于风险投资，加上私募股权、对冲基金和房地产，所谓的 “另类 ”投资占其资产的近四分之三。</blockquote></p><p><b>Early life and education</b></p><p><blockquote><b>早期生活与教育</b></blockquote></p><p>David F. Swensen was born inRiver Falls, Wisconsin. His father, Richard Swensen, was a chemistry professor and dean at the University of Wisconsin-River Falls. His mother, Grace, after raising six children, became a Lutheran minister. After graduating from River Falls High School in 1971 Swensen elected to stay in his hometown of River Falls and receive hisB.A.andB.S.in 1975 from theUniversity of Wisconsin-River Fallswhere his father Richard Swensen was a professor. Swensen pursued a PhD ineconomicsat Yale, where he wrote hisdissertation,<i>A Model for the Valuation ofCorporate Bonds.</i>One of Swensen's dissertation advisers at Yale wasJames Tobin, a top economic adviser toJohn F. Kennedyadministration and a future Nobel Prize laureate in economics. According to Charles Ellis, founder of Greenwich Associates and former chair of Yale's investment committee, \"When it snowed, David went to Jim's house to shovel the sidewalk\". James Tobin's Nobel Prize, among other things, was for his contribution in creation of Modern Portfolio Theory. Swensen was fascinated by the idea of Modern Portfolio Theory. During his 2018 reunion speech Swensen said: \"For a given level of return, if you diversify you can get that return at lower risk. For a given level of risk, if you diversify you can get a higher return. That's pretty cool! Free lunch!\"</p><p><blockquote>大卫·F·斯文森出生于威斯康星州的里弗福尔斯。他的父亲理查德·斯文森 (Richard Swensen) 是威斯康星大学河瀑分校的化学教授兼院长。他的母亲格蕾丝在抚养了六个孩子后，成为了一名路德教牧师。1971年从里弗福尔斯高中毕业后，斯文森选择留在他的家乡里弗福尔斯，并于1975年获得了威斯康星大学里弗福尔斯分校的学士学位和理学学士学位，他的父亲理查德·斯文森是该校的教授。斯文森在耶鲁大学攻读经济学博士学位，<i>公司债券估值模型。</i>斯文森在耶鲁大学的论文导师之一是詹姆斯·托宾，他是约翰·肯尼迪政府的高级经济顾问，也是未来的诺贝尔经济学奖获得者。据格林威治联合公司创始人、耶鲁大学投资委员会前主席查尔斯·埃利斯说，“下雪的时候，大卫去吉姆家铲人行道”。詹姆斯·托宾获得诺贝尔奖，除其他外，是因为他对现代投资组合理论的贡献。斯文森对现代投资组合理论的思想非常着迷。在2018年的同学会演讲中，斯文森说：“对于给定的回报水平，如果你分散投资，你可以以较低的风险获得回报。对于给定的风险水平，如果你分散投资，你可以获得更高的回报。这很酷!免费午餐!”</blockquote></p><p><b>Investment career</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资生涯</b></blockquote></p><p>Swensen began his investment career in the early 1980s, and has since advised theCarnegie Corporation, theNew York Stock Exchange, theHoward Hughes Medical Institute, theCourtauld Institute of Art, theYale-New Haven Hospital, The Investment Fund for Foundations (TIFF), theEdna McConnell Clark Foundation, and the States of&nbsp;Connecticut&nbsp;and&nbsp;Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>Swensen 于 20 世纪 80 年代初开始了他的投资生涯，此后曾为卡内基公司、纽约证券交易所、霍华德·休斯医学研究所、考陶尔德艺术学院、耶鲁-纽黑文医院、基金会投资基金 (TIFF)、DNA McConnell Clark 基金会以及康涅狄格州和马萨诸塞州提供咨询。</blockquote></p><p><b>Salomon Brothers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>所罗门兄弟</b></blockquote></p><p>Following his academic interest in valuation of corporate bonds, Swensen joined Salomon Brothers in 1980. This career move was suggested by a Salomon Brothers investment banker and Yale alumni, Gene Dattel, who was deeply impressed by Swensen. In 1981 Swensen worked to structure the world's first swap agreement, a deal betweenIBMand theWorld Bankwhich allowed to hedge their exposure to Swiss francs and German marks.</p><p><blockquote>由于对公司债券估值的学术兴趣，斯文森于 1980 年加入所罗门兄弟公司。这一职业转变是由所罗门兄弟投资银行家、耶鲁大学校友吉恩·达特尔建议的，他对斯文森印象深刻。1981年，斯文森致力于构建世界上第一个互换协议，这是IBM和世界银行之间的一项协议，允许他们对冲瑞士法郎和德国马克的风险敞口。</blockquote></p><p><b>Lehman Brothers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>雷曼兄弟</b></blockquote></p><p>Prior to joining Yale in 1985, Swensen spent six years onWall Streetas senior vice president atLehman Brothers,&nbsp;specializing in the firm'sswapactivities, and as an associate incorporate financeforSalomon Brothers(here he worked for three years prior to joining Lehman Brothers), where his work focused on developing new financial technologies. Swensen engineered the first swap transaction according to<i>When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management</i>byRoger Lowenstein.</p><p><blockquote>在1985年加入耶鲁大学之前，斯文森曾在华尔街担任雷曼兄弟公司的高级副总裁六年，专门从事该公司的SSWAP活动，并在所罗门兄弟公司担任财务合伙人（在加入雷曼兄弟之前，他在这里工作了三年），他的工作重点是开发新的金融技术。斯文森根据<i>当天才失败：长期资本管理的兴衰</i>作者：罗杰·洛温斯坦。</blockquote></p><p><b>Yale University endowment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶鲁大学捐赠基金</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Swensen was tapped to serve as the Yale endowment manager at age 31 in 1985.&nbsp;This position was offered by Swensen's other dissertation adviser, Yale's provost,William Brainard. Swensen's candidacy was suggested by James Tobin, who, despite his former student's young age, believed he could be the right person. Swensen was hesitant about taking the job at first, since he did not know much about portfolio management aside from his studies in graduate school. Nevertheless, Brainard convinced him to take the position and Swensen started on April 1, 1985 by taking 80% pay cut.&nbsp;A year later, in 1986, he was joined by Yale College and School of Management graduate Dean Takahashi, who soon became Swensen's trusted deputy. In 1985, when Swensen started managing the endowment, it was worth $1 billion; in 2019 it was worth $29.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>1985年，31岁的斯文森被任命为耶鲁大学捐赠基金经理。这个职位是由斯文森的另一位论文导师、耶鲁大学教务长威廉·布雷纳德提供的。斯文森的候选资格是由詹姆斯·托宾建议的，尽管他以前的学生年纪轻轻，但他相信他可能是合适的人选。斯文森起初对接受这份工作犹豫不决，因为除了在研究生院学习之外，他对投资组合管理了解不多。尽管如此，布雷纳德说服他接受了这个职位，斯文森于1985年4月1日开始接受80%的减薪。一年后，1986年，耶鲁大学和管理学院院长高桥加入了他的行列，他很快成为斯文森信任的副手。1985年，当斯文森开始管理捐赠基金时，它价值10亿美元；2019年，它的价值为294亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>As of 2005, the fund has managed annualized returns of 16.1%. He has been called \"Yale's 8 billion dollar man\" for his attainment of nearly $8 billion for the college endowment from 1985 to 2005.&nbsp;According to former Yale President, economistRichard Levin, Swensen's \"contribution\" to Yale is greater than the sum of all the donations made in more than two decades. \"We've just done better,\" Levin says, because of Swensen's \"uncanny ability\" to pick the best outside money managers. Swensen's former staff members, who later became managers of other endowment funds - includingMIT,StanfordandPrinceton- also showed impressive results in multiplying fund wealth.</p><p><blockquote>截至2005年，该基金的年化回报率为16.1%。他被称为“耶鲁的80亿美元人”，因为他从1985年到2005年为学院捐赠了近80亿美元。根据耶鲁大学前校长、经济学家理查德·莱文的说法，斯文森对耶鲁的“贡献”超过了二十多年来所有捐款的总和。“我们刚刚做得更好，”莱文说，因为斯文森拥有挑选最佳外部资金经理的“不可思议的能力”。斯文森的前员工后来成为其他捐赠基金（包括麻省理工学院、斯坦福大学和普林斯顿大学）的经理，在基金财富倍增方面也表现出了令人印象深刻的成果。</blockquote></p><p>In September 2014, Swensen began to move the Yale endowment away from investment in companies that have a large greenhouse footprint, expressing Yale's preferences in a letter to the endowment's money managers. The letter asked them to consider the effect of their investments on climate change, and to refrain from investing in companies that do not make reasonable efforts to reduce carbon emissions. This method was characterized by Swensen as a more subtle and flexible approach, as opposed to outright divestment.</p><p><blockquote>2014 年 9 月，斯文森开始让耶鲁基金会远离对温室足迹较大的公司的投资，并在给基金会资金经理的一封信中表达了耶鲁的偏好。信中要求他们考虑投资对气候变化的影响，并避免投资那些没有做出合理努力减少碳排放的公司。斯文森将这种方法描述为一种更微妙、更灵活的方法，而不是彻底撤资。</blockquote></p><p>Swensen made headlines on March 5, 2018 for arguing with the undergraduate editor-in-chief of the<i>Yale Daily News</i>. Swensen called the editor-in-chief a \"coward\" for deleting an inaccurate sentence and removing a footnote in an op-ed that he submitted to the paper; his column, which he required to be published unedited, responded to a student teach-in that criticized companies allegedly in the Yale portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>2018年3月5日，斯文森因与本科生主编争吵而成为头条新闻<i>耶鲁每日新闻</i>斯文森称主编为“懦夫”，因为他在提交给该报的一篇专栏文章中删除了一个不准确的句子和一个脚注；他要求未经编辑发表的专栏是对一名学生批评耶鲁大学投资组合中涉嫌公司的讲座的回应。</blockquote></p><p><b>Unconventional success</b></p><p><blockquote><b>非常规的成功</b></blockquote></p><p>In 2005, Swensen wrote a book called<i>Unconventional Success,</i>which is an investment guide for the individual investor. The general strategy that he presents can be boiled down to the following three main points of advice:</p><p><blockquote>2005年，斯文森写了一本名为<i>非常规的成功，</i>这是个人投资者的投资指南。他提出的总体策略可以归结为以下三个要点：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>The investor should construct a portfolio with money allocated to 6 core asset classes, diversifying among them and biasing toward the equity sections.</li><li>The investor should rebalance the portfolio on a regular basis (rebalancingback to the original weightings of the asset classes in the portfolio).</li><li>In the absence of confidence in a market-beating strategy, invest in low-costindex fundsandexchange-traded funds. The investor should be very watchful of costs as some indices are poorly constructed and some fund companies charge excessive fees (or generate large tax liabilities).</li></ul>He slams manymutual fundcompanies for charging excessive fees and not living up to their fiduciary responsibility. He highlights the conflict of interest inherent in the mutual funds, claiming they want high fee, high turnover funds while investors want the opposite.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>投资者应该构建一个投资组合，将资金分配到6个核心资产类别，在它们之间分散投资，并偏向股票部分。</li><li>投资者应定期重新平衡投资组合（重新平衡回投资组合中资产类别的原始权重）。</li><li>如果对跑赢市场的策略没有信心，投资低成本指数基金和交易所交易基金。投资者应该非常警惕成本，因为一些指数构建不良，一些基金公司收取过高的费用（或产生巨额纳税义务）。</li></ul>他抨击许多共同基金公司收取过高的费用，没有履行其信托责任。他强调了共同基金固有的利益冲突，声称他们想要高费用、高周转率的基金，而投资者想要相反的基金。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Yale's chief investment manager David Swensen dies at 67<blockquote>耶鲁大学首席投资经理大卫·斯文森去世，享年 67 岁</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYale's chief investment manager David Swensen dies at 67<blockquote>耶鲁大学首席投资经理大卫·斯文森去世，享年 67 岁</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-06 22:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>David Swensen, the head of Yale University’s endowment who helped reshape how institutions manage their money, has died from cancer aged 67.</p><p><blockquote>耶鲁大学捐赠基金负责人大卫-斯文森（David Swensen）因癌症去世，享年 67 岁。</blockquote></p><p>After stints at Salomon Brothers and Lehman Brothers, Swensen returned to his alma mater in 1985 to lead its investment office. At the time, endowments were typically conservatively managed, but Swensen overhauled the model dramatically, taking advantage of their long-term focus to invest heavily in the nascent private equity and hedge fund industries.</p><p><blockquote>在所罗门兄弟和雷曼兄弟任职后，斯文森于 1985 年回到母校领导其投资办公室。当时，捐赠基金通常是保守管理的，但斯文森对这种模式进行了大刀阔斧的改革，利用其长期关注的优势，大力投资于新兴的私募股权和对冲基金行业。</blockquote></p><p>His approach was so successful it revolutionised how endowments and many other institutional investors allocate their money, and the “Yale model” spread and helped change the wider investment industry.</p><p><blockquote>他的方法非常成功，彻底改变了捐赠基金和许多其他机构投资者的资金分配方式，“耶鲁模式 ”传播开来，帮助改变了更广泛的投资行业。</blockquote></p><p>“With his guidance, Yale’s endowment yielded returns that established him as a legend among institutional investors,” Peter Salovey, Yale’s president, said in a statement. “A natural teacher, he prepared a generation of institutional investors who have gone on to lead investment offices at other colleges and universities, further extending the scope of David’s influence.”</p><p><blockquote>“耶鲁大学校长彼得-萨洛维（Peter Salovey）在一份声明中说：”在他的指导下，耶鲁大学的捐赠基金获得了回报，使他成为机构投资者中的传奇人物。“作为一名天生的教师，他培养了一代机构投资者，他们后来在其他学院和大学领导投资办公室，进一步扩大了大卫的影响范围”。</blockquote></p><p>The Yale Investments Office managed $31.2bn as of June 2020, and says it has averaged annual returns of 12. 4 per cent a year over the past three decades. In the 2021 fiscal year its contributions accounted for over a third of the university’s overall revenues.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年6月，耶鲁投资办公室管理着312亿美元的资产，并表示在过去30年中，该办公室的平均年回报率为12. 4%。在 2021 财年，其捐款占大学总收入的三分之一以上。</blockquote></p><p>Almost a quarter of the endowment is invested in venture capital, and combined with private equity, hedge funds and real estate, so-called “alternative” investments account for nearly three quarters of its assets.</p><p><blockquote>近四分之一的捐赠基金投资于风险投资，加上私募股权、对冲基金和房地产，所谓的 “另类 ”投资占其资产的近四分之三。</blockquote></p><p><b>Early life and education</b></p><p><blockquote><b>早期生活与教育</b></blockquote></p><p>David F. Swensen was born inRiver Falls, Wisconsin. His father, Richard Swensen, was a chemistry professor and dean at the University of Wisconsin-River Falls. His mother, Grace, after raising six children, became a Lutheran minister. After graduating from River Falls High School in 1971 Swensen elected to stay in his hometown of River Falls and receive hisB.A.andB.S.in 1975 from theUniversity of Wisconsin-River Fallswhere his father Richard Swensen was a professor. Swensen pursued a PhD ineconomicsat Yale, where he wrote hisdissertation,<i>A Model for the Valuation ofCorporate Bonds.</i>One of Swensen's dissertation advisers at Yale wasJames Tobin, a top economic adviser toJohn F. Kennedyadministration and a future Nobel Prize laureate in economics. According to Charles Ellis, founder of Greenwich Associates and former chair of Yale's investment committee, \"When it snowed, David went to Jim's house to shovel the sidewalk\". James Tobin's Nobel Prize, among other things, was for his contribution in creation of Modern Portfolio Theory. Swensen was fascinated by the idea of Modern Portfolio Theory. During his 2018 reunion speech Swensen said: \"For a given level of return, if you diversify you can get that return at lower risk. For a given level of risk, if you diversify you can get a higher return. That's pretty cool! Free lunch!\"</p><p><blockquote>大卫·F·斯文森出生于威斯康星州的里弗福尔斯。他的父亲理查德·斯文森 (Richard Swensen) 是威斯康星大学河瀑分校的化学教授兼院长。他的母亲格蕾丝在抚养了六个孩子后，成为了一名路德教牧师。1971年从里弗福尔斯高中毕业后，斯文森选择留在他的家乡里弗福尔斯，并于1975年获得了威斯康星大学里弗福尔斯分校的学士学位和理学学士学位，他的父亲理查德·斯文森是该校的教授。斯文森在耶鲁大学攻读经济学博士学位，<i>公司债券估值模型。</i>斯文森在耶鲁大学的论文导师之一是詹姆斯·托宾，他是约翰·肯尼迪政府的高级经济顾问，也是未来的诺贝尔经济学奖获得者。据格林威治联合公司创始人、耶鲁大学投资委员会前主席查尔斯·埃利斯说，“下雪的时候，大卫去吉姆家铲人行道”。詹姆斯·托宾获得诺贝尔奖，除其他外，是因为他对现代投资组合理论的贡献。斯文森对现代投资组合理论的思想非常着迷。在2018年的同学会演讲中，斯文森说：“对于给定的回报水平，如果你分散投资，你可以以较低的风险获得回报。对于给定的风险水平，如果你分散投资，你可以获得更高的回报。这很酷!免费午餐!”</blockquote></p><p><b>Investment career</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资生涯</b></blockquote></p><p>Swensen began his investment career in the early 1980s, and has since advised theCarnegie Corporation, theNew York Stock Exchange, theHoward Hughes Medical Institute, theCourtauld Institute of Art, theYale-New Haven Hospital, The Investment Fund for Foundations (TIFF), theEdna McConnell Clark Foundation, and the States of&nbsp;Connecticut&nbsp;and&nbsp;Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>Swensen 于 20 世纪 80 年代初开始了他的投资生涯，此后曾为卡内基公司、纽约证券交易所、霍华德·休斯医学研究所、考陶尔德艺术学院、耶鲁-纽黑文医院、基金会投资基金 (TIFF)、DNA McConnell Clark 基金会以及康涅狄格州和马萨诸塞州提供咨询。</blockquote></p><p><b>Salomon Brothers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>所罗门兄弟</b></blockquote></p><p>Following his academic interest in valuation of corporate bonds, Swensen joined Salomon Brothers in 1980. This career move was suggested by a Salomon Brothers investment banker and Yale alumni, Gene Dattel, who was deeply impressed by Swensen. In 1981 Swensen worked to structure the world's first swap agreement, a deal betweenIBMand theWorld Bankwhich allowed to hedge their exposure to Swiss francs and German marks.</p><p><blockquote>由于对公司债券估值的学术兴趣，斯文森于 1980 年加入所罗门兄弟公司。这一职业转变是由所罗门兄弟投资银行家、耶鲁大学校友吉恩·达特尔建议的，他对斯文森印象深刻。1981年，斯文森致力于构建世界上第一个互换协议，这是IBM和世界银行之间的一项协议，允许他们对冲瑞士法郎和德国马克的风险敞口。</blockquote></p><p><b>Lehman Brothers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>雷曼兄弟</b></blockquote></p><p>Prior to joining Yale in 1985, Swensen spent six years onWall Streetas senior vice president atLehman Brothers,&nbsp;specializing in the firm'sswapactivities, and as an associate incorporate financeforSalomon Brothers(here he worked for three years prior to joining Lehman Brothers), where his work focused on developing new financial technologies. Swensen engineered the first swap transaction according to<i>When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management</i>byRoger Lowenstein.</p><p><blockquote>在1985年加入耶鲁大学之前，斯文森曾在华尔街担任雷曼兄弟公司的高级副总裁六年，专门从事该公司的SSWAP活动，并在所罗门兄弟公司担任财务合伙人（在加入雷曼兄弟之前，他在这里工作了三年），他的工作重点是开发新的金融技术。斯文森根据<i>当天才失败：长期资本管理的兴衰</i>作者：罗杰·洛温斯坦。</blockquote></p><p><b>Yale University endowment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶鲁大学捐赠基金</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Swensen was tapped to serve as the Yale endowment manager at age 31 in 1985.&nbsp;This position was offered by Swensen's other dissertation adviser, Yale's provost,William Brainard. Swensen's candidacy was suggested by James Tobin, who, despite his former student's young age, believed he could be the right person. Swensen was hesitant about taking the job at first, since he did not know much about portfolio management aside from his studies in graduate school. Nevertheless, Brainard convinced him to take the position and Swensen started on April 1, 1985 by taking 80% pay cut.&nbsp;A year later, in 1986, he was joined by Yale College and School of Management graduate Dean Takahashi, who soon became Swensen's trusted deputy. In 1985, when Swensen started managing the endowment, it was worth $1 billion; in 2019 it was worth $29.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>1985年，31岁的斯文森被任命为耶鲁大学捐赠基金经理。这个职位是由斯文森的另一位论文导师、耶鲁大学教务长威廉·布雷纳德提供的。斯文森的候选资格是由詹姆斯·托宾建议的，尽管他以前的学生年纪轻轻，但他相信他可能是合适的人选。斯文森起初对接受这份工作犹豫不决，因为除了在研究生院学习之外，他对投资组合管理了解不多。尽管如此，布雷纳德说服他接受了这个职位，斯文森于1985年4月1日开始接受80%的减薪。一年后，1986年，耶鲁大学和管理学院院长高桥加入了他的行列，他很快成为斯文森信任的副手。1985年，当斯文森开始管理捐赠基金时，它价值10亿美元；2019年，它的价值为294亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>As of 2005, the fund has managed annualized returns of 16.1%. He has been called \"Yale's 8 billion dollar man\" for his attainment of nearly $8 billion for the college endowment from 1985 to 2005.&nbsp;According to former Yale President, economistRichard Levin, Swensen's \"contribution\" to Yale is greater than the sum of all the donations made in more than two decades. \"We've just done better,\" Levin says, because of Swensen's \"uncanny ability\" to pick the best outside money managers. Swensen's former staff members, who later became managers of other endowment funds - includingMIT,StanfordandPrinceton- also showed impressive results in multiplying fund wealth.</p><p><blockquote>截至2005年，该基金的年化回报率为16.1%。他被称为“耶鲁的80亿美元人”，因为他从1985年到2005年为学院捐赠了近80亿美元。根据耶鲁大学前校长、经济学家理查德·莱文的说法，斯文森对耶鲁的“贡献”超过了二十多年来所有捐款的总和。“我们刚刚做得更好，”莱文说，因为斯文森拥有挑选最佳外部资金经理的“不可思议的能力”。斯文森的前员工后来成为其他捐赠基金（包括麻省理工学院、斯坦福大学和普林斯顿大学）的经理，在基金财富倍增方面也表现出了令人印象深刻的成果。</blockquote></p><p>In September 2014, Swensen began to move the Yale endowment away from investment in companies that have a large greenhouse footprint, expressing Yale's preferences in a letter to the endowment's money managers. The letter asked them to consider the effect of their investments on climate change, and to refrain from investing in companies that do not make reasonable efforts to reduce carbon emissions. This method was characterized by Swensen as a more subtle and flexible approach, as opposed to outright divestment.</p><p><blockquote>2014 年 9 月，斯文森开始让耶鲁基金会远离对温室足迹较大的公司的投资，并在给基金会资金经理的一封信中表达了耶鲁的偏好。信中要求他们考虑投资对气候变化的影响，并避免投资那些没有做出合理努力减少碳排放的公司。斯文森将这种方法描述为一种更微妙、更灵活的方法，而不是彻底撤资。</blockquote></p><p>Swensen made headlines on March 5, 2018 for arguing with the undergraduate editor-in-chief of the<i>Yale Daily News</i>. Swensen called the editor-in-chief a \"coward\" for deleting an inaccurate sentence and removing a footnote in an op-ed that he submitted to the paper; his column, which he required to be published unedited, responded to a student teach-in that criticized companies allegedly in the Yale portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>2018年3月5日，斯文森因与本科生主编争吵而成为头条新闻<i>耶鲁每日新闻</i>斯文森称主编为“懦夫”，因为他在提交给该报的一篇专栏文章中删除了一个不准确的句子和一个脚注；他要求未经编辑发表的专栏是对一名学生批评耶鲁大学投资组合中涉嫌公司的讲座的回应。</blockquote></p><p><b>Unconventional success</b></p><p><blockquote><b>非常规的成功</b></blockquote></p><p>In 2005, Swensen wrote a book called<i>Unconventional Success,</i>which is an investment guide for the individual investor. The general strategy that he presents can be boiled down to the following three main points of advice:</p><p><blockquote>2005年，斯文森写了一本名为<i>非常规的成功，</i>这是个人投资者的投资指南。他提出的总体策略可以归结为以下三个要点：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>The investor should construct a portfolio with money allocated to 6 core asset classes, diversifying among them and biasing toward the equity sections.</li><li>The investor should rebalance the portfolio on a regular basis (rebalancingback to the original weightings of the asset classes in the portfolio).</li><li>In the absence of confidence in a market-beating strategy, invest in low-costindex fundsandexchange-traded funds. The investor should be very watchful of costs as some indices are poorly constructed and some fund companies charge excessive fees (or generate large tax liabilities).</li></ul>He slams manymutual fundcompanies for charging excessive fees and not living up to their fiduciary responsibility. He highlights the conflict of interest inherent in the mutual funds, claiming they want high fee, high turnover funds while investors want the opposite.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>投资者应该构建一个投资组合，将资金分配到6个核心资产类别，在它们之间分散投资，并偏向股票部分。</li><li>投资者应定期重新平衡投资组合（重新平衡回投资组合中资产类别的原始权重）。</li><li>如果对跑赢市场的策略没有信心，投资低成本指数基金和交易所交易基金。投资者应该非常警惕成本，因为一些指数构建不良，一些基金公司收取过高的费用（或产生巨额纳税义务）。</li></ul>他抨击许多共同基金公司收取过高的费用，没有履行其信托责任。他强调了共同基金固有的利益冲突，声称他们想要高费用、高周转率的基金，而投资者想要相反的基金。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188985089","content_text":"David Swensen, the head of Yale University’s endowment who helped reshape how institutions manage their money, has died from cancer aged 67.After stints at Salomon Brothers and Lehman Brothers, Swensen returned to his alma mater in 1985 to lead its investment office. At the time, endowments were typically conservatively managed, but Swensen overhauled the model dramatically, taking advantage of their long-term focus to invest heavily in the nascent private equity and hedge fund industries.His approach was so successful it revolutionised how endowments and many other institutional investors allocate their money, and the “Yale model” spread and helped change the wider investment industry.“With his guidance, Yale’s endowment yielded returns that established him as a legend among institutional investors,” Peter Salovey, Yale’s president, said in a statement. “A natural teacher, he prepared a generation of institutional investors who have gone on to lead investment offices at other colleges and universities, further extending the scope of David’s influence.”The Yale Investments Office managed $31.2bn as of June 2020, and says it has averaged annual returns of 12. 4 per cent a year over the past three decades. In the 2021 fiscal year its contributions accounted for over a third of the university’s overall revenues.Almost a quarter of the endowment is invested in venture capital, and combined with private equity, hedge funds and real estate, so-called “alternative” investments account for nearly three quarters of its assets.Early life and educationDavid F. Swensen was born inRiver Falls, Wisconsin. His father, Richard Swensen, was a chemistry professor and dean at the University of Wisconsin-River Falls. His mother, Grace, after raising six children, became a Lutheran minister. After graduating from River Falls High School in 1971 Swensen elected to stay in his hometown of River Falls and receive hisB.A.andB.S.in 1975 from theUniversity of Wisconsin-River Fallswhere his father Richard Swensen was a professor. Swensen pursued a PhD ineconomicsat Yale, where he wrote hisdissertation,A Model for the Valuation ofCorporate Bonds.One of Swensen's dissertation advisers at Yale wasJames Tobin, a top economic adviser toJohn F. Kennedyadministration and a future Nobel Prize laureate in economics. According to Charles Ellis, founder of Greenwich Associates and former chair of Yale's investment committee, \"When it snowed, David went to Jim's house to shovel the sidewalk\". James Tobin's Nobel Prize, among other things, was for his contribution in creation of Modern Portfolio Theory. Swensen was fascinated by the idea of Modern Portfolio Theory. During his 2018 reunion speech Swensen said: \"For a given level of return, if you diversify you can get that return at lower risk. For a given level of risk, if you diversify you can get a higher return. That's pretty cool! Free lunch!\"Investment careerSwensen began his investment career in the early 1980s, and has since advised theCarnegie Corporation, theNew York Stock Exchange, theHoward Hughes Medical Institute, theCourtauld Institute of Art, theYale-New Haven Hospital, The Investment Fund for Foundations (TIFF), theEdna McConnell Clark Foundation, and the States of Connecticut and Massachusetts.Salomon BrothersFollowing his academic interest in valuation of corporate bonds, Swensen joined Salomon Brothers in 1980. This career move was suggested by a Salomon Brothers investment banker and Yale alumni, Gene Dattel, who was deeply impressed by Swensen. In 1981 Swensen worked to structure the world's first swap agreement, a deal betweenIBMand theWorld Bankwhich allowed to hedge their exposure to Swiss francs and German marks.Lehman BrothersPrior to joining Yale in 1985, Swensen spent six years onWall Streetas senior vice president atLehman Brothers, specializing in the firm'sswapactivities, and as an associate incorporate financeforSalomon Brothers(here he worked for three years prior to joining Lehman Brothers), where his work focused on developing new financial technologies. Swensen engineered the first swap transaction according toWhen Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital ManagementbyRoger Lowenstein.Yale University endowmentSwensen was tapped to serve as the Yale endowment manager at age 31 in 1985. This position was offered by Swensen's other dissertation adviser, Yale's provost,William Brainard. Swensen's candidacy was suggested by James Tobin, who, despite his former student's young age, believed he could be the right person. Swensen was hesitant about taking the job at first, since he did not know much about portfolio management aside from his studies in graduate school. Nevertheless, Brainard convinced him to take the position and Swensen started on April 1, 1985 by taking 80% pay cut. A year later, in 1986, he was joined by Yale College and School of Management graduate Dean Takahashi, who soon became Swensen's trusted deputy. In 1985, when Swensen started managing the endowment, it was worth $1 billion; in 2019 it was worth $29.4 billion.As of 2005, the fund has managed annualized returns of 16.1%. He has been called \"Yale's 8 billion dollar man\" for his attainment of nearly $8 billion for the college endowment from 1985 to 2005. According to former Yale President, economistRichard Levin, Swensen's \"contribution\" to Yale is greater than the sum of all the donations made in more than two decades. \"We've just done better,\" Levin says, because of Swensen's \"uncanny ability\" to pick the best outside money managers. Swensen's former staff members, who later became managers of other endowment funds - includingMIT,StanfordandPrinceton- also showed impressive results in multiplying fund wealth.In September 2014, Swensen began to move the Yale endowment away from investment in companies that have a large greenhouse footprint, expressing Yale's preferences in a letter to the endowment's money managers. The letter asked them to consider the effect of their investments on climate change, and to refrain from investing in companies that do not make reasonable efforts to reduce carbon emissions. This method was characterized by Swensen as a more subtle and flexible approach, as opposed to outright divestment.Swensen made headlines on March 5, 2018 for arguing with the undergraduate editor-in-chief of theYale Daily News. Swensen called the editor-in-chief a \"coward\" for deleting an inaccurate sentence and removing a footnote in an op-ed that he submitted to the paper; his column, which he required to be published unedited, responded to a student teach-in that criticized companies allegedly in the Yale portfolio.Unconventional successIn 2005, Swensen wrote a book calledUnconventional Success,which is an investment guide for the individual investor. The general strategy that he presents can be boiled down to the following three main points of advice:The investor should construct a portfolio with money allocated to 6 core asset classes, diversifying among them and biasing toward the equity sections.The investor should rebalance the portfolio on a regular basis (rebalancingback to the original weightings of the asset classes in the portfolio).In the absence of confidence in a market-beating strategy, invest in low-costindex fundsandexchange-traded funds. The investor should be very watchful of costs as some indices are poorly constructed and some fund companies charge excessive fees (or generate large tax liabilities).He slams manymutual fundcompanies for charging excessive fees and not living up to their fiduciary responsibility. He highlights the conflict of interest inherent in the mutual funds, claiming they want high fee, high turnover funds while investors want the opposite.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102256273,"gmtCreate":1620220686592,"gmtModify":1634206899714,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559787708786439","idStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Much thanks.","listText":"Please like and comment. Much thanks.","text":"Please like and comment. Much thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102256273","repostId":"2132510807","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102256116,"gmtCreate":1620220657735,"gmtModify":1634206899957,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559787708786439","idStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102256116","repostId":"2133523892","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":195176051,"gmtCreate":1621266098973,"gmtModify":1634192903349,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559787708786439","authorIdStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please comment and like, thanks.&nbsp;","listText":"Please comment and like, thanks.&nbsp;","text":"Please comment and like, thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195176051","repostId":"2135984810","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373525897,"gmtCreate":1618874300119,"gmtModify":1634290298972,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559787708786439","authorIdStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment please&nbsp; thank you.","listText":"Like and comment please&nbsp; thank you.","text":"Like and comment please thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373525897","repostId":"1114523776","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":732,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102256273,"gmtCreate":1620220686592,"gmtModify":1634206899714,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559787708786439","authorIdStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Much thanks.","listText":"Please like and comment. Much thanks.","text":"Please like and comment. Much thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102256273","repostId":"2132510807","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112995500,"gmtCreate":1622841172100,"gmtModify":1631891799809,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559787708786439","authorIdStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please drop a like. Thank you.","listText":"Please drop a like. Thank you.","text":"Please drop a like. Thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112995500","repostId":"1154529120","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154529120","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622810459,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1154529120?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 20:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154529120","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:. Alibaba Group'","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险并存，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以当前相当低的估值购买的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 efetova/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了高增长的中国消费市场的机会。同时，通过一系列的创业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在额外的行业，比如云计算。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。看到股价上涨至 500 美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这在短期内不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自首次公开募股以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但还应该提到的是，2020 年下半年股价确实下跌，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服的 IPO 计划被叫停，2020 年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价现在基本与一年前持平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在那段时间内继续取得强劲的业绩。例如，上一季度阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，约为50%。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴财报发布中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于年化用户增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW还设法将其 EBITDA 同比增长 25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管对评级管理关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但仍实现了这一目标。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，营业收入增长速度更快，经阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款调整后，营业收入同比增长 48%。我认为，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的，以便更清楚地了解阿里巴巴平均一个季度的潜在“核心”盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技公司而言，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是由于投资者情绪疲软导致中国风险敞口和对监管的担忧导致的多重压缩的结果。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前 220 美元的价格计算，与目前分析师一致的目标价 298 美元相比，阿里巴巴的股价有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨 35%。分析师目标价通常以 1 年为期限发布，因此，如果分析师社区是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项很好的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个价格目标似乎一点也不离谱，因为 298 美元相当于今年预期净利润的约 29 倍，或明年净利润的 23 倍。当我们谈论 2022 年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你看的是12个月的窗口，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从长远来看，那么 500 美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能达到的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为 20 美元，并且市盈率为 25，那么股票的交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 25 美元，市盈率为 20 倍，那么股票交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 17 美元，交易价格为净利润的 29 倍，那么股价将（略低于）500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有许多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收入就越低。这反过来意味着价格目标可以更快实现，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们查看阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为 30-40 倍，相对于目前的股票估值（约为今年收益的 20 倍），其交易价格显然大幅溢价。我认为目前的估值太低了，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到 30 倍、35 倍甚至 40 倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股票估值可能会更低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，股票确实有一些估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设股票未来的交易价格是净利润的23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大盘股的估值相比，也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊 (AMZN) 的交易价格是今年市盈率的 59 倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用 23 倍市盈率使阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为 21.70 美元。什么时候会是这样？在下图中，我们看到了今年、明年（2022 财年）和 2023 财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW到 2023 年将无法实现每股 22 美元的盈利，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到 2023 年每股收益会增长 100% 以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约 27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约 1.5 年的时间才能将每股收益从 15.20 美元（2023 年估计）增长到我们的目标 21.70 美元。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024 年和 2025 年的增长率仅为 20%，到 2025 年底，每股收益也可能达到 21.70 美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到 2025 年底（即 4.5 年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能达到 500 美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要高市盈率——我相信，在净利润的 23 倍下，阿里巴巴-SW不会很贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守，假设 2023 年每股收益预测过高 10%，并且 2023 年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长 17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年 27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW 2026 年的每股收益将达到 21.70 美元，未来 5.5 年内股价将升至 500 美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来 5.5 年内股价从当前水平上涨 130%，年化回报率为 16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结这一部分，我会说<i>是的，爸爸可以达到 500 美元</i>——但实际上这需要几年时间。到 2020 年代中期，这对我来说似乎是一个非常容易实现的目标，尽管当然，没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司从多个长期宏观趋势中实现了强劲的增长和利润，例如中国不断增长的消费者支出、不断增长的电子商务市场份额和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能是一个非常有益的游戏的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个有力选择。我属于后一类，因此以当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将有显着上涨空间。然而，根据你的风险承受能力以及你如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，你可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 20:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险并存，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以当前相当低的估值购买的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 efetova/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了高增长的中国消费市场的机会。同时，通过一系列的创业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在额外的行业，比如云计算。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。看到股价上涨至 500 美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这在短期内不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自首次公开募股以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但还应该提到的是，2020 年下半年股价确实下跌，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服的 IPO 计划被叫停，2020 年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价现在基本与一年前持平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在那段时间内继续取得强劲的业绩。例如，上一季度阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，约为50%。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴财报发布中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于年化用户增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW还设法将其 EBITDA 同比增长 25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管对评级管理关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但仍实现了这一目标。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，营业收入增长速度更快，经阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款调整后，营业收入同比增长 48%。我认为，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的，以便更清楚地了解阿里巴巴平均一个季度的潜在“核心”盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技公司而言，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是由于投资者情绪疲软导致中国风险敞口和对监管的担忧导致的多重压缩的结果。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前 220 美元的价格计算，与目前分析师一致的目标价 298 美元相比，阿里巴巴的股价有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨 35%。分析师目标价通常以 1 年为期限发布，因此，如果分析师社区是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项很好的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个价格目标似乎一点也不离谱，因为 298 美元相当于今年预期净利润的约 29 倍，或明年净利润的 23 倍。当我们谈论 2022 年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你看的是12个月的窗口，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从长远来看，那么 500 美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能达到的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为 20 美元，并且市盈率为 25，那么股票的交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 25 美元，市盈率为 20 倍，那么股票交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 17 美元，交易价格为净利润的 29 倍，那么股价将（略低于）500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有许多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收入就越低。这反过来意味着价格目标可以更快实现，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们查看阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为 30-40 倍，相对于目前的股票估值（约为今年收益的 20 倍），其交易价格显然大幅溢价。我认为目前的估值太低了，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到 30 倍、35 倍甚至 40 倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股票估值可能会更低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，股票确实有一些估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设股票未来的交易价格是净利润的23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大盘股的估值相比，也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊 (AMZN) 的交易价格是今年市盈率的 59 倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用 23 倍市盈率使阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为 21.70 美元。什么时候会是这样？在下图中，我们看到了今年、明年（2022 财年）和 2023 财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW到 2023 年将无法实现每股 22 美元的盈利，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到 2023 年每股收益会增长 100% 以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约 27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约 1.5 年的时间才能将每股收益从 15.20 美元（2023 年估计）增长到我们的目标 21.70 美元。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024 年和 2025 年的增长率仅为 20%，到 2025 年底，每股收益也可能达到 21.70 美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到 2025 年底（即 4.5 年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能达到 500 美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要高市盈率——我相信，在净利润的 23 倍下，阿里巴巴-SW不会很贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守，假设 2023 年每股收益预测过高 10%，并且 2023 年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长 17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年 27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW 2026 年的每股收益将达到 21.70 美元，未来 5.5 年内股价将升至 500 美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来 5.5 年内股价从当前水平上涨 130%，年化回报率为 16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结这一部分，我会说<i>是的，爸爸可以达到 500 美元</i>——但实际上这需要几年时间。到 2020 年代中期，这对我来说似乎是一个非常容易实现的目标，尽管当然，没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司从多个长期宏观趋势中实现了强劲的增长和利润，例如中国不断增长的消费者支出、不断增长的电子商务市场份额和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能是一个非常有益的游戏的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个有力选择。我属于后一类，因此以当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将有显着上涨空间。然而，根据你的风险承受能力以及你如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，你可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154529120","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.\nI believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.\nIn the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.\n\nPhoto by efetova/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAlibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.\nBABA Stock Price\nSince its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:\nData byYCharts\nShares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.\nAlibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and fears about regulation.\nAt its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500?\nThe answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.\nWe see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:\nData byYCharts\nAt 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.\nI still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.\nIf we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:\nData byYCharts\nIf analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.\nData byYCharts\nAnalysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.\nWe can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.\nSo, to sum this section up, I'd sayyes, BABA can hit $500-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.\nIs Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAlibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.\nFor those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111452592,"gmtCreate":1622694912016,"gmtModify":1631891799845,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559787708786439","authorIdStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like, thank you.","listText":"Please like, thank you.","text":"Please like, thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111452592","repostId":"1115876867","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133492677,"gmtCreate":1621779450199,"gmtModify":1631891799858,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559787708786439","authorIdStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like please.","listText":"Comment and like please.","text":"Comment and like please.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133492677","repostId":"2137990425","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130069396,"gmtCreate":1621496391315,"gmtModify":1631891799882,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559787708786439","authorIdStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please comment and like.&nbsp; Ty.","listText":"Please comment and like.&nbsp; Ty.","text":"Please comment and like. Ty.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130069396","repostId":"1126891253","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377988867,"gmtCreate":1619489369159,"gmtModify":1634212339158,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559787708786439","authorIdStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like, thank you.&nbsp;","listText":"Please like, thank you.&nbsp;","text":"Please like, thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377988867","repostId":"1190086074","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190086074","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619480390,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1190086074?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-27 07:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla posts record net income of $438 million, revenue surges by 74%<blockquote>特斯拉净利润创历史新高 4.38 亿美元，收入激增 74%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190086074","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue.In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.”On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the delayed new version of the company’s Model S sedan will be deliv","content":"<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Tesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue.</li><li>In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.”</li><li>On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the delayed new version of the company’s Model S sedan will be delivered starting in May 2021, and Model X deliveries will begin in the third quarter of the year.</li></ul>Tesla&nbsp;reported first-quarter results after the bell on Monday. The company beat expectations handily, buoyed by sales of bitcoin and regulatory credits, but the stock dipped as much as 2.5% after hours as investors digested the numbers.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉公布本季度净利润为创纪录的 4.38 亿美元，每股收益为 93 美分，营收为 103.9 亿美元。</li><li>该公司在财报发布中表示，它已经度过了困扰汽车行业的芯片短缺问题，部分原因是 “迅速转向新型微控制器，同时为新供应商生产的新芯片开发固件”。</li><li>首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）在财报看涨期权上表示，公司推迟推出的 Model S 轿车新版本将于 2021 年 5 月开始交付，Model X 将于今年第三季度开始交付。</li></ul>特斯拉周一盘后公布了第一季度业绩。在比特币出售和监管信贷的提振下，该公司轻松超出预期，但随着投资者消化这些数据，该股盘后下跌了 2.5%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fec5c52f391c1077b749edc13b7b3417\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Here’s how the company fared in the quarter, compared with analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:</p><p><blockquote>以下是该公司本季度的表现与 Refinitiv 编制的分析师预期的比较：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Earnings:</b>93 cents per share vs. 79 cents per share expected</li><li><b>Revenue:</b>$10.39 billion vs. $10.29 billion expected, up 74% from a year ago</li></ul>Net profit reached a quarterly record of $438 million on a GAAP basis, and the company recorded $518 million in revenue from sales of regulatory credits during the period. It also recorded a $101 million positive impact from&nbsp;sales of bitcoin&nbsp;during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>每股 93 美分，预计每股 79 美分</li><li><b>收入：</b>103.9 亿美元，而预期为 102.9 亿美元，同比增长 74%</li></ul>按公认会计准则计算，季度净利润达到创纪录的 4.38 亿美元，该公司在此期间从监管信用销售收入中获得 5.18 亿美元。本季度比特币销售额还带来了 1.01 亿美元的积极影响。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/107ab1e725bed375ea106bdf3024ec6a\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1097\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>CEO Elon Musk’s electric vehicle business reported in the first quarter&nbsp;vehicle deliveries of 184,800&nbsp;Model 3 and Model Y cars, beating expectations and setting a record for Tesla. However, the company also said it produced none of its higher-end Model S sedans or Model X SUVs for the period ending March. It delivered2,020 older Model S sedans and Model X SUVs from inventory.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的电动汽车业务第一季度交付了 18.48 万辆 Model 3 和 Model Y 汽车，超出预期，创下了特斯拉的纪录。不过，该公司还表示，截至 3 月份，它没有生产任何高端 Model S 轿车或 Model X SUV。它从库存中交付了 2,020 辆旧款 Model S 轿车和 Model X SUV。</blockquote></p><p>On Monday’s earnings call, Musk said the new version of the company’s Model S sedans will finally be delivered to customers starting in May 2021, with Model X deliveries to begin in the third quarter of the year. Musk and CFO Zachary Kirkhorn both said supply chain issues are likely to remain a challenge for Tesla this year.</p><p><blockquote>在周一的财报看涨期权上，马斯克表示，公司新版 Model S 轿车最终将于 2021 年 5 月开始交付给客户，Model X 将于今年第三季度开始交付。马斯克和首席财务官扎卡里·柯克霍恩都表示，供应链问题今年可能仍然是特斯拉面临的挑战。</blockquote></p><p>In January 2021 (during a fourth-quarter 2020 earnings update) Musk had said that the Model S Plaid was already in production would be delivered starting in February 2021. But he admitted on Monday, “There were more challenges than expected,” in producing the refreshed version of these vehicles. He did not elaborate.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年 1 月（在 2020 年第四季度收益更新期间），马斯克曾表示 Model S Plaid 已经投入生产，将于 2021 年 2 月开始交付。但他在周一承认，在生产这些车辆的更新版本时，“面临的挑战比预期的要多”。他没有详细说明。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla is now aiming to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles per week later this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉目前的目标是在今年晚些时候每周生产 2,000 辆 Model S 和 X 汽车。</blockquote></p><p>The company said Monday it expects more than 50% vehicle delivery growth in 2021 overall, which implies minimum deliveries around 750,000 vehicles this year.</p><p><blockquote>该公司周一表示，预计 2021 年整体汽车交付量将增长 50% 以上，这意味着今年的最低交付量约为 75 万辆。</blockquote></p><p>The fact Tesla grew vehicle unit sales by more than 100% year over year but grew service centers by only 28% and its mobile service fleet by only 22% explains why some Tesla customers face frustratingly long wait times for repairs. Service expansion is not keeping pace with the volume of vehicles sold.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，特斯拉的汽车销量同比增长超过 100%，但服务中心仅增长 28%，移动服务车队仅增长 22%，这解释了为什么一些特斯拉客户面临令人沮丧的漫长维修等待时间。服务扩展跟不上车辆销量。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.” It did not disclose the names of its new suppliers.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，该公司已经度过了困扰汽车行业的芯片短缺问题，部分原因是 “迅速转向新型微控制器，同时为新供应商生产的新芯片开发固件”。它没有透露新供应商的名字。</blockquote></p><p>It also reiterated Musk’s frequent claim that cameras, not radar, are a better path toward autonomous vehicles. “Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD [Full Self-Driving] team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision,” the company said in its earnings release.</p><p><blockquote>它还重申了马斯克经常说的，即摄像头而不是雷达是自动驾驶汽车的更好途径。“我们基于人工智能的软件架构越来越依赖摄像头，以至于雷达比预期更早变得不必要。因此，我们的 FSD（全自动驾驶）团队正全力致力于发展基于视觉的自主系统，我们几乎准备好将美国市场转向特斯拉视觉，”该公司在财报发布会上说。</blockquote></p><p>Revenue for its energy generation and storage business nearly doubled for Tesla versus the same period in 2020, when Musk said Covid, then an emerging pandemic, had slowed its energy business to a crawl. But energy revenue declined from $787 million in the fourth quarter to $595 million in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与 2020 年同期相比，特斯拉的能源发电和存储业务收入几乎翻了一番，当时马斯克表示，当时新兴的新冠疫情使其能源业务大幅放缓。但能源收入从第四季度的7.87亿美元下降至2021年第一季度的5.95亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Recently, Tesla increased prices for its solar rooftops by 50%, and now requires anyone ordering solar photovoltaics (including Tesla solar roof tiles) to also order the Powerwall, Tesla’s home energy storage system. The sudden price change applied retroactively to some&nbsp;vexed customers.</p><p><blockquote>最近，特斯拉将太阳能屋顶的价格提高了 50%，现在要求任何订购太阳能光伏（包括特斯拉太阳能屋顶瓦）的人也必须订购特斯拉的家庭储能系统 Powerwall。突然的价格变化追溯适用于一些烦恼的顾客。</blockquote></p><p>Musk said on the Q1 2021 call that he is aiming for homes with solar rooftops and batteries from Tesla to function as a “giant distributed utility” that can help incumbent electrical utilities supply customers with all the electricity they need as demand and extreme weather events increase.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克在 2021 年第一季度看涨期权上表示，他的目标是让拥有太阳能屋顶和特斯拉电池的家庭成为 “巨型分布式公用事业公司”，随着需求和极端天气事件的增加，帮助现有电力公司为客户提供所需的所有电力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Executives did not say how they would change their production or mix of battery cells from suppliers in order to make a higher volume of vehicles and energy storage products in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>高管们没有透露他们将如何改变供应商电池的生产或组合，以便在 2021 年生产更多的汽车和储能产品。</blockquote></p><p>Musk said the company’s 4680 cells, which it developed independently and makes at a pilot plant in Fremont, California, are not yet reliable enough to be shipped in Tesla vehicles. He said Tesla would probably “achieve volume production” of these cells in 12 to 18 months.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克说，该公司自主研发并在加州弗里蒙特的一个试点工厂生产的 4680 电池还不够可靠，无法在特斯拉汽车上运输。他说，特斯拉可能会在 12 到 18 个月内 “实现这些电池的量产 ”。</blockquote></p><p>The company revealed in February it purchased&nbsp;$1.5 billion in bitcoin&nbsp;and would potentially invest in other cryptocurrencies in the future. By April, bitcoin rose to record levels before pulling back. In its statement of cash flows, Tesla revealed that it had sold $272 million worth of “digital assets,” presumably bitcoin, during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在2月份透露，它在比特币购买了15亿美元，未来可能会投资其他加密货币。到四月份，比特币升至创纪录水平，然后回落。特斯拉在现金流量表中透露，该公司在本季度出售了价值 2.72 亿美元的 “数字资产”，大概是比特币。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla posts record net income of $438 million, revenue surges by 74%<blockquote>特斯拉净利润创历史新高 4.38 亿美元，收入激增 74%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla posts record net income of $438 million, revenue surges by 74%<blockquote>特斯拉净利润创历史新高 4.38 亿美元，收入激增 74%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-27 07:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Tesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue.</li><li>In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.”</li><li>On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the delayed new version of the company’s Model S sedan will be delivered starting in May 2021, and Model X deliveries will begin in the third quarter of the year.</li></ul>Tesla&nbsp;reported first-quarter results after the bell on Monday. The company beat expectations handily, buoyed by sales of bitcoin and regulatory credits, but the stock dipped as much as 2.5% after hours as investors digested the numbers.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉公布本季度净利润为创纪录的 4.38 亿美元，每股收益为 93 美分，营收为 103.9 亿美元。</li><li>该公司在财报发布中表示，它已经度过了困扰汽车行业的芯片短缺问题，部分原因是 “迅速转向新型微控制器，同时为新供应商生产的新芯片开发固件”。</li><li>首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）在财报看涨期权上表示，公司推迟推出的 Model S 轿车新版本将于 2021 年 5 月开始交付，Model X 将于今年第三季度开始交付。</li></ul>特斯拉周一盘后公布了第一季度业绩。在比特币出售和监管信贷的提振下，该公司轻松超出预期，但随着投资者消化这些数据，该股盘后下跌了 2.5%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fec5c52f391c1077b749edc13b7b3417\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Here’s how the company fared in the quarter, compared with analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:</p><p><blockquote>以下是该公司本季度的表现与 Refinitiv 编制的分析师预期的比较：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Earnings:</b>93 cents per share vs. 79 cents per share expected</li><li><b>Revenue:</b>$10.39 billion vs. $10.29 billion expected, up 74% from a year ago</li></ul>Net profit reached a quarterly record of $438 million on a GAAP basis, and the company recorded $518 million in revenue from sales of regulatory credits during the period. It also recorded a $101 million positive impact from&nbsp;sales of bitcoin&nbsp;during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>每股 93 美分，预计每股 79 美分</li><li><b>收入：</b>103.9 亿美元，而预期为 102.9 亿美元，同比增长 74%</li></ul>按公认会计准则计算，季度净利润达到创纪录的 4.38 亿美元，该公司在此期间从监管信用销售收入中获得 5.18 亿美元。本季度比特币销售额还带来了 1.01 亿美元的积极影响。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/107ab1e725bed375ea106bdf3024ec6a\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1097\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>CEO Elon Musk’s electric vehicle business reported in the first quarter&nbsp;vehicle deliveries of 184,800&nbsp;Model 3 and Model Y cars, beating expectations and setting a record for Tesla. However, the company also said it produced none of its higher-end Model S sedans or Model X SUVs for the period ending March. It delivered2,020 older Model S sedans and Model X SUVs from inventory.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的电动汽车业务第一季度交付了 18.48 万辆 Model 3 和 Model Y 汽车，超出预期，创下了特斯拉的纪录。不过，该公司还表示，截至 3 月份，它没有生产任何高端 Model S 轿车或 Model X SUV。它从库存中交付了 2,020 辆旧款 Model S 轿车和 Model X SUV。</blockquote></p><p>On Monday’s earnings call, Musk said the new version of the company’s Model S sedans will finally be delivered to customers starting in May 2021, with Model X deliveries to begin in the third quarter of the year. Musk and CFO Zachary Kirkhorn both said supply chain issues are likely to remain a challenge for Tesla this year.</p><p><blockquote>在周一的财报看涨期权上，马斯克表示，公司新版 Model S 轿车最终将于 2021 年 5 月开始交付给客户，Model X 将于今年第三季度开始交付。马斯克和首席财务官扎卡里·柯克霍恩都表示，供应链问题今年可能仍然是特斯拉面临的挑战。</blockquote></p><p>In January 2021 (during a fourth-quarter 2020 earnings update) Musk had said that the Model S Plaid was already in production would be delivered starting in February 2021. But he admitted on Monday, “There were more challenges than expected,” in producing the refreshed version of these vehicles. He did not elaborate.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年 1 月（在 2020 年第四季度收益更新期间），马斯克曾表示 Model S Plaid 已经投入生产，将于 2021 年 2 月开始交付。但他在周一承认，在生产这些车辆的更新版本时，“面临的挑战比预期的要多”。他没有详细说明。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla is now aiming to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles per week later this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉目前的目标是在今年晚些时候每周生产 2,000 辆 Model S 和 X 汽车。</blockquote></p><p>The company said Monday it expects more than 50% vehicle delivery growth in 2021 overall, which implies minimum deliveries around 750,000 vehicles this year.</p><p><blockquote>该公司周一表示，预计 2021 年整体汽车交付量将增长 50% 以上，这意味着今年的最低交付量约为 75 万辆。</blockquote></p><p>The fact Tesla grew vehicle unit sales by more than 100% year over year but grew service centers by only 28% and its mobile service fleet by only 22% explains why some Tesla customers face frustratingly long wait times for repairs. Service expansion is not keeping pace with the volume of vehicles sold.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，特斯拉的汽车销量同比增长超过 100%，但服务中心仅增长 28%，移动服务车队仅增长 22%，这解释了为什么一些特斯拉客户面临令人沮丧的漫长维修等待时间。服务扩展跟不上车辆销量。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.” It did not disclose the names of its new suppliers.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，该公司已经度过了困扰汽车行业的芯片短缺问题，部分原因是 “迅速转向新型微控制器，同时为新供应商生产的新芯片开发固件”。它没有透露新供应商的名字。</blockquote></p><p>It also reiterated Musk’s frequent claim that cameras, not radar, are a better path toward autonomous vehicles. “Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD [Full Self-Driving] team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision,” the company said in its earnings release.</p><p><blockquote>它还重申了马斯克经常说的，即摄像头而不是雷达是自动驾驶汽车的更好途径。“我们基于人工智能的软件架构越来越依赖摄像头，以至于雷达比预期更早变得不必要。因此，我们的 FSD（全自动驾驶）团队正全力致力于发展基于视觉的自主系统，我们几乎准备好将美国市场转向特斯拉视觉，”该公司在财报发布会上说。</blockquote></p><p>Revenue for its energy generation and storage business nearly doubled for Tesla versus the same period in 2020, when Musk said Covid, then an emerging pandemic, had slowed its energy business to a crawl. But energy revenue declined from $787 million in the fourth quarter to $595 million in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与 2020 年同期相比，特斯拉的能源发电和存储业务收入几乎翻了一番，当时马斯克表示，当时新兴的新冠疫情使其能源业务大幅放缓。但能源收入从第四季度的7.87亿美元下降至2021年第一季度的5.95亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Recently, Tesla increased prices for its solar rooftops by 50%, and now requires anyone ordering solar photovoltaics (including Tesla solar roof tiles) to also order the Powerwall, Tesla’s home energy storage system. The sudden price change applied retroactively to some&nbsp;vexed customers.</p><p><blockquote>最近，特斯拉将太阳能屋顶的价格提高了 50%，现在要求任何订购太阳能光伏（包括特斯拉太阳能屋顶瓦）的人也必须订购特斯拉的家庭储能系统 Powerwall。突然的价格变化追溯适用于一些烦恼的顾客。</blockquote></p><p>Musk said on the Q1 2021 call that he is aiming for homes with solar rooftops and batteries from Tesla to function as a “giant distributed utility” that can help incumbent electrical utilities supply customers with all the electricity they need as demand and extreme weather events increase.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克在 2021 年第一季度看涨期权上表示，他的目标是让拥有太阳能屋顶和特斯拉电池的家庭成为 “巨型分布式公用事业公司”，随着需求和极端天气事件的增加，帮助现有电力公司为客户提供所需的所有电力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Executives did not say how they would change their production or mix of battery cells from suppliers in order to make a higher volume of vehicles and energy storage products in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>高管们没有透露他们将如何改变供应商电池的生产或组合，以便在 2021 年生产更多的汽车和储能产品。</blockquote></p><p>Musk said the company’s 4680 cells, which it developed independently and makes at a pilot plant in Fremont, California, are not yet reliable enough to be shipped in Tesla vehicles. He said Tesla would probably “achieve volume production” of these cells in 12 to 18 months.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克说，该公司自主研发并在加州弗里蒙特的一个试点工厂生产的 4680 电池还不够可靠，无法在特斯拉汽车上运输。他说，特斯拉可能会在 12 到 18 个月内 “实现这些电池的量产 ”。</blockquote></p><p>The company revealed in February it purchased&nbsp;$1.5 billion in bitcoin&nbsp;and would potentially invest in other cryptocurrencies in the future. By April, bitcoin rose to record levels before pulling back. In its statement of cash flows, Tesla revealed that it had sold $272 million worth of “digital assets,” presumably bitcoin, during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在2月份透露，它在比特币购买了15亿美元，未来可能会投资其他加密货币。到四月份，比特币升至创纪录水平，然后回落。特斯拉在现金流量表中透露，该公司在本季度出售了价值 2.72 亿美元的 “数字资产”，大概是比特币。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190086074","content_text":"KEY POINTSTesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue.In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.”On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the delayed new version of the company’s Model S sedan will be delivered starting in May 2021, and Model X deliveries will begin in the third quarter of the year.Tesla reported first-quarter results after the bell on Monday. The company beat expectations handily, buoyed by sales of bitcoin and regulatory credits, but the stock dipped as much as 2.5% after hours as investors digested the numbers.Here’s how the company fared in the quarter, compared with analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:Earnings:93 cents per share vs. 79 cents per share expectedRevenue:$10.39 billion vs. $10.29 billion expected, up 74% from a year agoNet profit reached a quarterly record of $438 million on a GAAP basis, and the company recorded $518 million in revenue from sales of regulatory credits during the period. It also recorded a $101 million positive impact from sales of bitcoin during the quarter.CEO Elon Musk’s electric vehicle business reported in the first quarter vehicle deliveries of 184,800 Model 3 and Model Y cars, beating expectations and setting a record for Tesla. However, the company also said it produced none of its higher-end Model S sedans or Model X SUVs for the period ending March. It delivered2,020 older Model S sedans and Model X SUVs from inventory.On Monday’s earnings call, Musk said the new version of the company’s Model S sedans will finally be delivered to customers starting in May 2021, with Model X deliveries to begin in the third quarter of the year. Musk and CFO Zachary Kirkhorn both said supply chain issues are likely to remain a challenge for Tesla this year.In January 2021 (during a fourth-quarter 2020 earnings update) Musk had said that the Model S Plaid was already in production would be delivered starting in February 2021. But he admitted on Monday, “There were more challenges than expected,” in producing the refreshed version of these vehicles. He did not elaborate.Tesla is now aiming to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles per week later this year.The company said Monday it expects more than 50% vehicle delivery growth in 2021 overall, which implies minimum deliveries around 750,000 vehicles this year.The fact Tesla grew vehicle unit sales by more than 100% year over year but grew service centers by only 28% and its mobile service fleet by only 22% explains why some Tesla customers face frustratingly long wait times for repairs. Service expansion is not keeping pace with the volume of vehicles sold.Tesla said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.” It did not disclose the names of its new suppliers.It also reiterated Musk’s frequent claim that cameras, not radar, are a better path toward autonomous vehicles. “Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD [Full Self-Driving] team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision,” the company said in its earnings release.Revenue for its energy generation and storage business nearly doubled for Tesla versus the same period in 2020, when Musk said Covid, then an emerging pandemic, had slowed its energy business to a crawl. But energy revenue declined from $787 million in the fourth quarter to $595 million in the first quarter of 2021.Recently, Tesla increased prices for its solar rooftops by 50%, and now requires anyone ordering solar photovoltaics (including Tesla solar roof tiles) to also order the Powerwall, Tesla’s home energy storage system. The sudden price change applied retroactively to some vexed customers.Musk said on the Q1 2021 call that he is aiming for homes with solar rooftops and batteries from Tesla to function as a “giant distributed utility” that can help incumbent electrical utilities supply customers with all the electricity they need as demand and extreme weather events increase.Executives did not say how they would change their production or mix of battery cells from suppliers in order to make a higher volume of vehicles and energy storage products in 2021.Musk said the company’s 4680 cells, which it developed independently and makes at a pilot plant in Fremont, California, are not yet reliable enough to be shipped in Tesla vehicles. He said Tesla would probably “achieve volume production” of these cells in 12 to 18 months.The company revealed in February it purchased $1.5 billion in bitcoin and would potentially invest in other cryptocurrencies in the future. By April, bitcoin rose to record levels before pulling back. In its statement of cash flows, Tesla revealed that it had sold $272 million worth of “digital assets,” presumably bitcoin, during the quarter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344184590,"gmtCreate":1618388265010,"gmtModify":1634293306399,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559787708786439","authorIdStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like. Thank you.&nbsp;","listText":"Please like. Thank you.&nbsp;","text":"Please like. Thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344184590","repostId":"2127454000","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349341186,"gmtCreate":1617552623345,"gmtModify":1634520553414,"author":{"id":"3559787708786439","authorId":"3559787708786439","name":"awry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaaff35b5c76aaac37d9a6c59595a7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559787708786439","authorIdStr":"3559787708786439"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349341186","repostId":"1188150614","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188150614","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366389,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188150614?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Beaten-Down Stocks That Could Double Your Money<blockquote>3 只被击败的股票可以让你的钱翻倍</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188150614","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Market rotation malaise has infected many investors. Last year, the growth stocks in theNasdaq-100index trounced the staid giants in theDow Jones Industrial Average. It's been a different story so far in 2021, though. The big money appears to be moving into so-called \"risk-off\" stocks.As a result, many of the high-flyers from just a few months ago are now stuck in the doldrums. Some are even down more than 30% from their peaks set earlier this year. There's a silver lining in this dark cloud, ho","content":"<p>Market rotation malaise has infected many investors. Last year, the growth stocks in the<b>Nasdaq-100</b>index trounced the staid giants in the<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>. It's been a different story so far in 2021, though. The big money appears to be moving into so-called \"risk-off\" stocks.</p><p><blockquote>市场轮动不振已经感染了许多投资者。去年，成长股在<b>纳斯达克-100</b>指数击败了稳重的巨人<b>道琼斯工业指数</b>.不过，2021 年到目前为止，情况就不同了。大笔资金似乎正在流入所谓的“规避风险”股票。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, many of the high-flyers from just a few months ago are now stuck in the doldrums. Some are even down more than 30% from their peaks set earlier this year. There's a silver lining in this dark cloud, however: Quite a few stocks with strong growth prospects are available at discounted prices.&nbsp;Here are three beaten-down stocks that could even double your money -- or more.</p><p><blockquote>因此，几个月前的许多雄心勃勃的人现在陷入了低迷。有些甚至比今年早些时候创下的峰值下降了30%以上。然而，这片乌云中有一线希望：相当多具有强劲增长前景的股票以折扣价出售。这里有三只被击败的股票，甚至可以让你的钱翻倍，甚至更多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>DermTech</b></p><p><blockquote><b>德姆泰克</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>DermTech</b>(NASDAQ:DMTK)markets an exciting product: a skin genomics test that can detect melanoma more accurately and cheaper than surgical biopsy. Its shares soared over 145% year to date by the third week of February. Since then, though, thehealthcare stockhas fallen more than 35%.</p><p><blockquote><b>德姆泰克</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：DMTK）推出了一款令人兴奋的产品：一种皮肤基因组学测试，可以比手术活检更准确、更便宜地检测黑色素瘤。截至 2 月第三周，其股价今年迄今已飙升超过 145%。然而，自那以后，医疗保健股已下跌超过 35%。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the problem was the aforementioned general sell-off of growth stocks. However, DermTech also provided disappointing guidance in its fourth-quarter update. The company expects first-quarter assay revenue of between $1.6 million and $1.9 million compared to Q4 assay revenue of $1.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>部分问题是前面提到的成长型股票的普遍抛售。然而，DermTech 在其第四季度更新中也提供了令人失望的指导。该公司预计第一季度检测收入在 160 万美元至 190 万美元之间，而第四季度检测收入为 160 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> DermTech still faces some COVID-19 headwinds in reaching out to physicians. The company's long-term growth prospects remain bright, though. DermTech continues to pick up commercial payer reimbursement for its first product, Pigmented Lesion Assay (PLA). It expects to launch an at-home genomics test that identifies ultraviolet ray damage and skin cancer risk next year.</p><p><blockquote>DermTech 在接触医生方面仍然面临一些 COVID-19 阻力。不过，该公司的长期增长前景仍然光明。DermTech 继续为其首款产品色素性病变检测 (PLA) 收取商业付款人报销。它预计明年将推出一项家庭基因组学测试，以识别紫外线损伤和皮肤癌风险。</blockquote></p><p> The total addressable U.S. market that DermTech is targeting for all types of skin cancer is around $10 billion. With the company's market cap currently below $1.5 billion, DermTech should only have to capture a tiny sliver of this market to deliver huge returns for investors.</p><p><blockquote>DermTech针对所有类型皮肤癌的美国市场总额约为100亿美元。由于该公司目前的市值低于15亿美元，DermTech只需要占领这个市场的一小部分，就可以为投资者带来巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gores Holdings VI</b></p><p><blockquote><b>戈雷斯控股 VI</b></blockquote></p><p> Special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) stocks were wildly popular not long ago. That's changed quite a bit.&nbsp;<b>Gores Holdings VI</b>(NASDAQ:GHVI)serves as a great example: The SPAC's shares skyrocketed more than 120% year to date by mid-February but are now down over 40% from those highs.</p><p><blockquote>不久前，特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）股票非常受欢迎。这已经改变了很多。<b>戈雷斯控股 VI</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：GHVI）就是一个很好的例子：截至 2 月中旬，SPAC 的股价今年迄今已飙升超过 120%，但现在已较这些高点下跌了 40% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Gores Holdings VI and spatial data company Matterport announced on Feb. 8 that they plan to merge in a deal that will take Matterport public at an equity value of around $2.9 billion. But Matterport should be able to grow much larger than that relatively quickly.</p><p><blockquote>Gores Holdings VI 和空间数据公司 Matterport 于 2 月 8 日宣布，他们计划合并，Matterport 的股权价值约为 29 亿美元。但是Matterport应该能够相对快速地发展得更大。</blockquote></p><p> Matterport pioneered the spatial data market a decade ago. The company's technology can create a 3D \"digital twin\" of any physical space. Consulting firm<b>Accenture</b>recently picked digital twin technology asone of its top five tech trends of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>十年前，Matterport开创了空间数据市场。该公司的技术可以创建任何物理空间的3D“数字孪生”。咨询公司<b>埃森哲</b>最近将数字孪生技术列为2021年五大技术趋势之一。</blockquote></p><p> The company already has over 250,000 customers, including 13% of the Fortune 1000. However, less than 1% of the more than 4 billion buildings across the world are currently digitized. This represents a $240 billion opportunity for Matterport. The company expects to nearly double its revenue in 2022 with growth accelerating in subsequent years.</p><p><blockquote>该公司已经拥有超过 250,000 名客户，其中包括 13% 的财富 1000 强企业。然而，目前全球40多亿座建筑中只有不到1%是数字化的。这代表着马特波特2400亿美元的机会。该公司预计 2022 年收入将几乎翻一番，随后几年的增长将加速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Skillz</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技能</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Skillz</b>(NYSE:SKLZ)stands as the biggest loser of these three beaten-down stocks. Shares of the mobile game platform provider soared nearly 120% by early February only to give up all of those gains and then some. The stock is now down over 5% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>技能</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SKLZ）是这三只重挫股票中最大的输家。到 2 月初，这家移动游戏平台提供商的股价飙升近 120%，但随后又回吐了所有涨幅和部分涨幅。该股今年迄今已下跌超过 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Like DermTech and Gores Holdings VI, Skillz was negatively impacted by the market rotation away from growth stocks. However, the company's decision to sell 17 million shares in a public offering also hurt.</p><p><blockquote>与 DermTech 和 Gores Holdings VI 一样，Skillz 也受到了市场远离成长型股票的负面影响。然而，该公司决定在公开募股中出售 1700 万股股票也造成了伤害。</blockquote></p><p> Skillz's competition-focused approach keeps users more engaged than other leading online platforms. It's also driving tremendous growth. The company's revenue nearly doubled in 2020. Skillz is especially making inroads in converting users to paying customers.</p><p><blockquote>Skillz以竞争为中心的方法让用户比其他领先的在线平台更多地参与其中。它也推动了巨大的增长。该公司2020年的收入几乎翻了一番。Skillz在将用户转化为付费客户方面尤其取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p> The mobile gaming market totaled $86 billion last year and continues to grow rapidly. Skillz should be able to increase its market share as it expands internationally and adds new genres of games to its platform. The company's multi-year agreement with the NFL could also provide a big boost.</p><p><blockquote>移动游戏市场去年总计860亿美元，并继续快速增长。Skillz应该能够增加其市场份额，因为它在国际上扩张，并在其平台上添加新的游戏类型。该公司与 NFL 的多年协议也可能带来巨大的推动。</blockquote></p><p> Skillz looks like a stock that could easily double your money and perhaps deliver much greater returns than that over the next couple of years.</p><p><blockquote>Skillz 看起来像是一只可以轻松让您的资金翻倍的股票，并且在未来几年内可能会带来比这更高的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Beaten-Down Stocks That Could Double Your Money<blockquote>3 只被击败的股票可以让你的钱翻倍</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Beaten-Down Stocks That Could Double Your Money<blockquote>3 只被击败的股票可以让你的钱翻倍</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Market rotation malaise has infected many investors. Last year, the growth stocks in the<b>Nasdaq-100</b>index trounced the staid giants in the<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>. It's been a different story so far in 2021, though. The big money appears to be moving into so-called \"risk-off\" stocks.</p><p><blockquote>市场轮动不振已经感染了许多投资者。去年，成长股在<b>纳斯达克-100</b>指数击败了稳重的巨人<b>道琼斯工业指数</b>.不过，2021 年到目前为止，情况就不同了。大笔资金似乎正在流入所谓的“规避风险”股票。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, many of the high-flyers from just a few months ago are now stuck in the doldrums. Some are even down more than 30% from their peaks set earlier this year. There's a silver lining in this dark cloud, however: Quite a few stocks with strong growth prospects are available at discounted prices.&nbsp;Here are three beaten-down stocks that could even double your money -- or more.</p><p><blockquote>因此，几个月前的许多雄心勃勃的人现在陷入了低迷。有些甚至比今年早些时候创下的峰值下降了30%以上。然而，这片乌云中有一线希望：相当多具有强劲增长前景的股票以折扣价出售。这里有三只被击败的股票，甚至可以让你的钱翻倍，甚至更多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>DermTech</b></p><p><blockquote><b>德姆泰克</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>DermTech</b>(NASDAQ:DMTK)markets an exciting product: a skin genomics test that can detect melanoma more accurately and cheaper than surgical biopsy. Its shares soared over 145% year to date by the third week of February. Since then, though, thehealthcare stockhas fallen more than 35%.</p><p><blockquote><b>德姆泰克</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：DMTK）推出了一款令人兴奋的产品：一种皮肤基因组学测试，可以比手术活检更准确、更便宜地检测黑色素瘤。截至 2 月第三周，其股价今年迄今已飙升超过 145%。然而，自那以后，医疗保健股已下跌超过 35%。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the problem was the aforementioned general sell-off of growth stocks. However, DermTech also provided disappointing guidance in its fourth-quarter update. The company expects first-quarter assay revenue of between $1.6 million and $1.9 million compared to Q4 assay revenue of $1.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>部分问题是前面提到的成长型股票的普遍抛售。然而，DermTech 在其第四季度更新中也提供了令人失望的指导。该公司预计第一季度检测收入在 160 万美元至 190 万美元之间，而第四季度检测收入为 160 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> DermTech still faces some COVID-19 headwinds in reaching out to physicians. The company's long-term growth prospects remain bright, though. DermTech continues to pick up commercial payer reimbursement for its first product, Pigmented Lesion Assay (PLA). It expects to launch an at-home genomics test that identifies ultraviolet ray damage and skin cancer risk next year.</p><p><blockquote>DermTech 在接触医生方面仍然面临一些 COVID-19 阻力。不过，该公司的长期增长前景仍然光明。DermTech 继续为其首款产品色素性病变检测 (PLA) 收取商业付款人报销。它预计明年将推出一项家庭基因组学测试，以识别紫外线损伤和皮肤癌风险。</blockquote></p><p> The total addressable U.S. market that DermTech is targeting for all types of skin cancer is around $10 billion. With the company's market cap currently below $1.5 billion, DermTech should only have to capture a tiny sliver of this market to deliver huge returns for investors.</p><p><blockquote>DermTech针对所有类型皮肤癌的美国市场总额约为100亿美元。由于该公司目前的市值低于15亿美元，DermTech只需要占领这个市场的一小部分，就可以为投资者带来巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gores Holdings VI</b></p><p><blockquote><b>戈雷斯控股 VI</b></blockquote></p><p> Special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) stocks were wildly popular not long ago. That's changed quite a bit.&nbsp;<b>Gores Holdings VI</b>(NASDAQ:GHVI)serves as a great example: The SPAC's shares skyrocketed more than 120% year to date by mid-February but are now down over 40% from those highs.</p><p><blockquote>不久前，特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）股票非常受欢迎。这已经改变了很多。<b>戈雷斯控股 VI</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：GHVI）就是一个很好的例子：截至 2 月中旬，SPAC 的股价今年迄今已飙升超过 120%，但现在已较这些高点下跌了 40% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Gores Holdings VI and spatial data company Matterport announced on Feb. 8 that they plan to merge in a deal that will take Matterport public at an equity value of around $2.9 billion. But Matterport should be able to grow much larger than that relatively quickly.</p><p><blockquote>Gores Holdings VI 和空间数据公司 Matterport 于 2 月 8 日宣布，他们计划合并，Matterport 的股权价值约为 29 亿美元。但是Matterport应该能够相对快速地发展得更大。</blockquote></p><p> Matterport pioneered the spatial data market a decade ago. The company's technology can create a 3D \"digital twin\" of any physical space. Consulting firm<b>Accenture</b>recently picked digital twin technology asone of its top five tech trends of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>十年前，Matterport开创了空间数据市场。该公司的技术可以创建任何物理空间的3D“数字孪生”。咨询公司<b>埃森哲</b>最近将数字孪生技术列为2021年五大技术趋势之一。</blockquote></p><p> The company already has over 250,000 customers, including 13% of the Fortune 1000. However, less than 1% of the more than 4 billion buildings across the world are currently digitized. This represents a $240 billion opportunity for Matterport. The company expects to nearly double its revenue in 2022 with growth accelerating in subsequent years.</p><p><blockquote>该公司已经拥有超过 250,000 名客户，其中包括 13% 的财富 1000 强企业。然而，目前全球40多亿座建筑中只有不到1%是数字化的。这代表着马特波特2400亿美元的机会。该公司预计 2022 年收入将几乎翻一番，随后几年的增长将加速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Skillz</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技能</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Skillz</b>(NYSE:SKLZ)stands as the biggest loser of these three beaten-down stocks. Shares of the mobile game platform provider soared nearly 120% by early February only to give up all of those gains and then some. The stock is now down over 5% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>技能</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SKLZ）是这三只重挫股票中最大的输家。到 2 月初，这家移动游戏平台提供商的股价飙升近 120%，但随后又回吐了所有涨幅和部分涨幅。该股今年迄今已下跌超过 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Like DermTech and Gores Holdings VI, Skillz was negatively impacted by the market rotation away from growth stocks. However, the company's decision to sell 17 million shares in a public offering also hurt.</p><p><blockquote>与 DermTech 和 Gores Holdings VI 一样，Skillz 也受到了市场远离成长型股票的负面影响。然而，该公司决定在公开募股中出售 1700 万股股票也造成了伤害。</blockquote></p><p> Skillz's competition-focused approach keeps users more engaged than other leading online platforms. It's also driving tremendous growth. The company's revenue nearly doubled in 2020. Skillz is especially making inroads in converting users to paying customers.</p><p><blockquote>Skillz以竞争为中心的方法让用户比其他领先的在线平台更多地参与其中。它也推动了巨大的增长。该公司2020年的收入几乎翻了一番。Skillz在将用户转化为付费客户方面尤其取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p> The mobile gaming market totaled $86 billion last year and continues to grow rapidly. Skillz should be able to increase its market share as it expands internationally and adds new genres of games to its platform. The company's multi-year agreement with the NFL could also provide a big boost.</p><p><blockquote>移动游戏市场去年总计860亿美元，并继续快速增长。Skillz应该能够增加其市场份额，因为它在国际上扩张，并在其平台上添加新的游戏类型。该公司与 NFL 的多年协议也可能带来巨大的推动。</blockquote></p><p> Skillz looks like a stock that could easily double your money and perhaps deliver much greater returns than that over the next couple of years.</p><p><blockquote>Skillz 看起来像是一只可以轻松让您的资金翻倍的股票，并且在未来几年内可能会带来比这更高的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/3-beaten-down-stocks-that-could-double-your-money/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/3-beaten-down-stocks-that-could-double-your-money/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188150614","content_text":"Market rotation malaise has infected many investors. Last year, the growth stocks in theNasdaq-100index trounced the staid giants in theDow Jones Industrial Average. It's been a different story so far in 2021, though. The big money appears to be moving into so-called \"risk-off\" stocks.\nAs a result, many of the high-flyers from just a few months ago are now stuck in the doldrums. Some are even down more than 30% from their peaks set earlier this year. There's a silver lining in this dark cloud, however: Quite a few stocks with strong growth prospects are available at discounted prices. Here are three beaten-down stocks that could even double your money -- or more.\nDermTech\nDermTech(NASDAQ:DMTK)markets an exciting product: a skin genomics test that can detect melanoma more accurately and cheaper than surgical biopsy. Its shares soared over 145% year to date by the third week of February. Since then, though, thehealthcare stockhas fallen more than 35%.\nPart of the problem was the aforementioned general sell-off of growth stocks. However, DermTech also provided disappointing guidance in its fourth-quarter update. The company expects first-quarter assay revenue of between $1.6 million and $1.9 million compared to Q4 assay revenue of $1.6 million.\nDermTech still faces some COVID-19 headwinds in reaching out to physicians. The company's long-term growth prospects remain bright, though. DermTech continues to pick up commercial payer reimbursement for its first product, Pigmented Lesion Assay (PLA). It expects to launch an at-home genomics test that identifies ultraviolet ray damage and skin cancer risk next year.\nThe total addressable U.S. market that DermTech is targeting for all types of skin cancer is around $10 billion. With the company's market cap currently below $1.5 billion, DermTech should only have to capture a tiny sliver of this market to deliver huge returns for investors.\nGores Holdings VI\nSpecial purpose acquisition company (SPAC) stocks were wildly popular not long ago. That's changed quite a bit. Gores Holdings VI(NASDAQ:GHVI)serves as a great example: The SPAC's shares skyrocketed more than 120% year to date by mid-February but are now down over 40% from those highs.\nGores Holdings VI and spatial data company Matterport announced on Feb. 8 that they plan to merge in a deal that will take Matterport public at an equity value of around $2.9 billion. But Matterport should be able to grow much larger than that relatively quickly.\nMatterport pioneered the spatial data market a decade ago. The company's technology can create a 3D \"digital twin\" of any physical space. Consulting firmAccenturerecently picked digital twin technology asone of its top five tech trends of 2021.\nThe company already has over 250,000 customers, including 13% of the Fortune 1000. However, less than 1% of the more than 4 billion buildings across the world are currently digitized. This represents a $240 billion opportunity for Matterport. The company expects to nearly double its revenue in 2022 with growth accelerating in subsequent years.\nSkillz\nSkillz(NYSE:SKLZ)stands as the biggest loser of these three beaten-down stocks. Shares of the mobile game platform provider soared nearly 120% by early February only to give up all of those gains and then some. The stock is now down over 5% year to date.\nLike DermTech and Gores Holdings VI, Skillz was negatively impacted by the market rotation away from growth stocks. However, the company's decision to sell 17 million shares in a public offering also hurt.\nSkillz's competition-focused approach keeps users more engaged than other leading online platforms. It's also driving tremendous growth. The company's revenue nearly doubled in 2020. Skillz is especially making inroads in converting users to paying customers.\nThe mobile gaming market totaled $86 billion last year and continues to grow rapidly. Skillz should be able to increase its market share as it expands internationally and adds new genres of games to its platform. The company's multi-year agreement with the NFL could also provide a big boost.\nSkillz looks like a stock that could easily double your money and perhaps deliver much greater returns than that over the next couple of years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}