幸运鑫的个人主页 - 老虎社区

幸运鑫

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2022-12-13

吃相太难看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-29

路边社消息求证小牛有意进入新能源汽车制造？

2021-07-24

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$预计洗盘洗半个月吧，还是有很大部分一级市场的股份获利了结的。

2021-07-22

$法拉第未来(FFIE)$起码拿一年到量产吧，光想着短线赚差价，散户哪里这么多技术高手

2020-08-11

清楚情况的有人说下？谢谢

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-08-11

看好两家

抱歉，原内容已删除

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23:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周一，法拉第未来盘中暴涨，截至发稿涨幅超70%！公司此前宣布将于美国西部时间12月15日举办全球投资人会议，会上将更新FF 91 Futurist的车辆交付计划。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1be04d5b8308380c27ca4415d5024054\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78ac86bdab506d9898920e00d5d818b2","relate_stocks":{"FFIE":"Faraday Future"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130486131","content_text":"周一，法拉第未来盘中暴涨，截至发稿涨幅超70%！公司此前宣布将于美国西部时间12月15日举办全球投资人会议，会上将更新FF 91 Futurist的车辆交付计划。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3463057643110414","authorId":"3463057643110414","name":"躺平躺到地狱了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5631398706333ec0e71a2194d3b45cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"元旦快乐！感谢支持！祝:2024年交大运，发大财！","text":"元旦快乐！感谢支持！祝:2024年交大运，发大财！","html":"元旦快乐！感谢支持！祝:2024年交大运，发大财！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":172532271,"gmtCreate":1626965588393,"gmtModify":1626965588393,"author":{"id":"3557304068319584","authorId":"3557304068319584","name":"幸运鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c167a1d2b281226f576fc525757e95","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$法拉第未来(FFIE)$</a>起码拿一年到量产吧，光想着短线赚差价，散户哪里这么多技术高手","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$法拉第未来(FFIE)$</a>起码拿一年到量产吧，光想着短线赚差价，散户哪里这么多技术高手","text":"$法拉第未来(FFIE)$起码拿一年到量产吧，光想着短线赚差价，散户哪里这么多技术高手","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172532271","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":174956385,"gmtCreate":1627061891247,"gmtModify":1627061891247,"author":{"id":"3557304068319584","authorId":"3557304068319584","name":"幸运鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c167a1d2b281226f576fc525757e95","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a>预计洗盘洗半个月吧，还是有很大部分一级市场的股份获利了结的。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a>预计洗盘洗半个月吧，还是有很大部分一级市场的股份获利了结的。","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$预计洗盘洗半个月吧，还是有很大部分一级市场的股份获利了结的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174956385","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1822,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":947935758,"gmtCreate":1597158008574,"gmtModify":1704214733914,"author":{"id":"3557304068319584","authorId":"3557304068319584","name":"幸运鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c167a1d2b281226f576fc525757e95","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"清楚情况的有人说下？谢谢","listText":"清楚情况的有人说下？谢谢","text":"清楚情况的有人说下？谢谢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/947935758","repostId":"1119278918","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119278918","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1597157610,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119278918?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-11 22:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蔚来跌超6%，此前一度涨超8%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119278918","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周二美股盘中，蔚来跌超6%，此前一度涨超8%。今日蔚来发布二季度财报，业绩表现亮眼。【相关阅读】蔚来二季度营收增146.5%，成功实现毛利率转正。","content":"<p>周二美股盘中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌超6%，此前一度涨超8%。今日蔚来发布二季度财报，业绩表现亮眼。</p><p>【相关阅读】<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/news/1144952940\" target=\"_blank\">蔚来二季度营收增146.5%，成功实现毛利率转正。</a></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/274f9b22e06d52e463abb17b554d03ce\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来跌超6%，此前一度涨超8%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌超6%，此前一度涨超8%。今日蔚来发布二季度财报，业绩表现亮眼。</p><p>【相关阅读】<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/news/1144952940\" target=\"_blank\">蔚来二季度营收增146.5%，成功实现毛利率转正。</a></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/274f9b22e06d52e463abb17b554d03ce\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0090cc485ea4ba6d267489389e83608b","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119278918","content_text":"周二美股盘中，蔚来跌超6%，此前一度涨超8%。今日蔚来发布二季度财报，业绩表现亮眼。【相关阅读】蔚来二季度营收增146.5%，成功实现毛利率转正。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3473239093042706","authorId":"3473239093042706","name":"看一眼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a84f5e344772736e621cec9cf6efdc2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"机构趁利好出货","text":"机构趁利好出货","html":"机构趁利好出货"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600787630,"gmtCreate":1638198254116,"gmtModify":1638198254116,"author":{"id":"3557304068319584","authorId":"3557304068319584","name":"幸运鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c167a1d2b281226f576fc525757e95","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"路边社消息求证 小牛有意进入新能源汽车制造？","listText":"路边社消息求证 小牛有意进入新能源汽车制造？","text":"路边社消息求证 小牛有意进入新能源汽车制造？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600787630","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1032,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944461727,"gmtCreate":1597086710069,"gmtModify":1704214361214,"author":{"id":"3557304068319584","authorId":"3557304068319584","name":"幸运鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c167a1d2b281226f576fc525757e95","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看好两家","listText":"看好两家","text":"看好两家","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944461727","repostId":"2058257566","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2058257566","pubTimestamp":1597076036,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2058257566?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-11 00:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蔚来，小鹏，理想汽车，谁的股票最值得持有？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2058257566","media":"科技说","summary":"虽然蔚来在一级市场拿钱较为容易，对研发费用的支出总规模也最高，但在人均科研人员的支出上反而最弱，与之对应的是理想汽车：总研发费用最少，但人均规模与小鹏相差不大。蔚来和小鹏在上市前已经量产，但蔚来人均科研人员研发支出要远低于小鹏。在此可对上市之前的三家企业做如下总结：蔚来来钱最易，但最不珍惜，理想汽车融资最难，但花钱效率较高，小鹏汽车介于两者之间。","content":"<html><body><article><p>随着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>正式提交招股书，王兴看好的三家造车新势力均进入了上市阶段（未来，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>和小鹏），但细分下，这三家企业有明显的模式、方向以及行业探索上的异同，对行业也有自己的的判断和思考。</p><p>判断三家企业的优劣也就相当不易，我们目的也并非购车指南评价，而是希望通过对数据的挖掘和整理，能够从产品思维之外，来验证企业的发展思路，并最终判断哪家企业更具有长期发展性。</p><p>先从一级市场入手，根据三家企业招股书，我们整理了企业在上市前的融资规模以及创始人股份，见下图</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200811001357307v2350gihzar3n6p\"/><p>如果用创始人股权/融资规模表示与一级市场的溢价能力，简单判断为：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>&gt;小鹏&gt;理想汽车，创始人撬动资本的能力有所不同。</p><p>其中，蔚来之所以领先并非是简单的「运营之成功」，更是以下原因使然：</p><p>蔚来成立于2014年11月，彼时一级市场尚处于「拿钱找项目的」热钱涌入周期，在最初多家头部互联网企业家出资创立，再到淡马锡、华平等机构进入，<strong>蔚来在融资上表现的极为积极，可谓是融资跑在运营前</strong>，小鹏汽车虽然也同期成立于2014年，但初期由研发为主，一直到2016年才完成Pre-A轮融资，错过了最佳外部环境。</p><p>理想汽车成立较晚，融资也顺延退后，待到2018年大量融资之时，随着去杠杆等行为带来的外部环境的变化，必然要面临融资成本上涨的问题，根据理想汽车招股书，<strong>从</strong><strong>2017</strong><strong>年末的</strong><strong>B-1</strong><strong>轮一直到</strong><strong>2019</strong><strong>年末的</strong><strong>C</strong><strong>轮，理想汽车的估值并未有明显变化</strong>（可转化可赎回优先股单价在两年时间由13.1元到2.23美金也验证此周期内理想汽车巨大的融资压力）。</p><p>用「生不逢时」难免夸张，「时过境迁」还是相对准确的。</p><p><strong>蔚来在一级市场的溢价能力或许有运气因素，而理想上市前估值保守也并不能完全证明业务不被认可。</strong></p><p>我们再思考这一问题：当融资环境不利时，对企业运营究竟会产生何等影响呢？</p><p>解决该问题之前，可先做以下假设：在未大规模量产之时，初创企业需要加快基础设施建设和科研攻关<strong>，运营效率体现在将所有者权益通过运营转化为资产的能力上</strong>，见下图</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200811001358038v235qczl5w88sb5\"/><p>蔚来发展初期外部环境一片大好，这固然是好事，但或许也因为「钱来的容易」，使得蔚来资产转化率要低于两家企业，我们对此也有疑虑：蔚来与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600418\">江淮汽车</a>合作量产，与其他两家要自建工厂要轻一些，是否因此影响了资产规模的膨胀呢？</p><p>为排除此干扰因素，我们选择用「研发费用」作为主要研究对象，在造车行业技术上存在诸多可探索空间前提下，评价研发费用的效率或许可以判得企业的运营效率，见下图。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200811001403651v2352ar482mrij0\"/><p>虽然蔚来在一级市场拿钱较为容易，对研发费用的支出总规模也最高，但在人均科研人员的支出上反而最弱，与之对应的是理想汽车：总研发费用最少，但人均规模与小鹏相差不大。</p><p>考虑到理想汽车在2019年末才量产，无论是出于控制总损益表情况抑或是出于实际业务的需求，此时的研发费用总规模低于其他两家是完全可以理解的。蔚来和小鹏在上市前已经量产，但蔚来人均科研人员研发支出要远低于小鹏。</p><p>蔚来在研发上采取了中美英多地多个中心的思路，很显然形成了「两头翘」的人员配置方式，上层研发和普通员工呈现极端化，收入悬差巨大，最终反而摊薄了人均支出，也就是说：<strong>蔚来在上市前存在一定的「浮夸之风」，追求表面繁荣和面子工程，不如其他两家脚踏实地。</strong></p><p>结合图二情况，若有浮夸之风，则意味着企业运营期间会有很大比例的跑冒滴漏，沉没成本比例高，部分股东融资未能转化为资产。</p><p>有时候钱来得太容易反而不会珍惜，这适用于创业期的蔚来，2019年蔚来遭遇连番风波，股价受挫，2019年采取了裁员措施，也算是对先前行为的一次校准。</p><p>在此可对上市之前的三家企业做如下总结：<strong>蔚来来钱最易，但最不珍惜，理想汽车融资最难，但花钱效率较高，小鹏汽车介于两者之间。</strong></p><p>接下来我们再看三家企业的产品，由于行业本身充满了不确定性，不同企业也采取了不同的发展策略，如理想汽车选择了六座的大型SUV作为突破口，蔚来汽车则从SUV到小型轿车，理论上判断，若企业产品在终端市场具有极强竞争力，势必会在定价中有所表示，也就是说，强竞争力必然会带来高毛利率，我们整理上市前三家企业的汽车毛利率情况，见下图</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200811001404750v235gdrlzg9xuqm\"/><p>蔚来上市之时虽然已经量产，但几乎是「卖一辆赔一辆」的负毛利率，小鹏汽车亦是如此，量产一定规模后，毛利率迟迟不能回正也很说明问题，只有理想汽车，选择了「增程式」电动汽车，确保了续航里程，且又以六座大型SUV切入了竞争力较小领域，故而有毛利率为正表现。</p><p>值得注意的是，2019全年蔚来毛利率不仅未回正反而有扩大的势头，从表面看是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>入侵，不断挤压产品在终端市场的增值溢价能力<strong>，对比理想汽车情况，在特斯拉之下也隐含着对企业选择造车切入点合理性的反馈。</strong></p><p>小鹏汽车选择了15万-30万元的中低端市场，面临着上有特斯拉下有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>的竞争局面，在未能大规模量产降低制造端成本前提下，毛利是很难回正的。</p><p>虽然市场均认同智能汽车是未来方向和前景，这是大势所趋，但从细分市场来看，竞争已经相当残酷，给造车企业的机会其实已经不多。</p><p>最后，我们还想通过创始人持股比例来做分析。</p><p>虽然通过AB股设置，创始人都牢牢掌握了公司话语权，似乎可以忽略持股比例这一数字，但相当多分析其实并未注意到：造车行业无论是制造端、供应链还是研发端，都处在急剧的烧钱状态，创始人持股比例高，理论上企业通过增发、债转股形式融资的可能性就越高，反之亦然，换言之，<strong>在一个烧钱行业中，创始人投资比例绝对着通过资本市场募资的动力，也就是融资潜力问题。</strong></p><p>蔚来虽然在上市前融资容易，但IPO只是下轮融资的开始，现在所处阶段要相对困难许多。</p><p>小鹏和理想汽车有相对的优势，但资本定价也取决于企业经营情况，尽快跑起来，盈利，提高资本市场信心是下阶段降低融资成本的关键。</p><p>根据最新数据，蔚来汽车2020年7月交付3533台，ES8和ES6两款车型面世均超过一年以上，理想汽车在只有一款车型前提下，同期交付了2516台，环比增加33%，在有毛利，上市不满一年前提下，理想成绩要相对好于已经成熟运营了一年以上的蔚来（ES6环比增长仅为5%）。</p><p>此外强调一点，由于不同地方政府对增城模式的认可度不同，有地区并未认可其新能源汽车这一身份，联想汽车的竞争相较于其他两家要严峻许多，有以上成绩乃是相当不易。</p><p>如果王兴说造车新势力蔚来，理想汽车和小鹏汽车会是硕果仅存的三家，那么随着运营和行业变化的深入，这三家公司分化也会逐渐加剧（目前市值尚在同一区间，且三家互为定价标准，理想汽车的普通股拆ADS比例显然也参照了蔚来的股价），此后会有一家领跑行业，且差距会不断加大。</p><p>我已看好一家，你们呢？</p><p>编辑/emily</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来，小鹏，理想汽车，谁的股票最值得持有？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-11 00:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202008110014057a9c3bca&s=b><strong>科技说</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着小鹏汽车正式提交招股书，王兴看好的三家造车新势力均进入了上市阶段（未来，理想汽车和小鹏），但细分下，这三家企业有明显的模式、方向以及行业探索上的异同，对行业也有自己的的判断和思考。判断三家企业的优劣也就相当不易，我们目的也并非购车指南评价，而是希望通过对数据的挖掘和整理，能够从产品思维之外，来验证企业的发展思路，并最终判断哪家企业更具有长期发展性。先从一级市场入手，根据三家企业招股书，我们整理...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202008110014057a9c3bca&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eebab619623966f6e7115434f653b888","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202008110014057a9c3bca&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2058257566","content_text":"随着小鹏汽车正式提交招股书，王兴看好的三家造车新势力均进入了上市阶段（未来，理想汽车和小鹏），但细分下，这三家企业有明显的模式、方向以及行业探索上的异同，对行业也有自己的的判断和思考。判断三家企业的优劣也就相当不易，我们目的也并非购车指南评价，而是希望通过对数据的挖掘和整理，能够从产品思维之外，来验证企业的发展思路，并最终判断哪家企业更具有长期发展性。先从一级市场入手，根据三家企业招股书，我们整理了企业在上市前的融资规模以及创始人股份，见下图如果用创始人股权/融资规模表示与一级市场的溢价能力，简单判断为：蔚来>小鹏>理想汽车，创始人撬动资本的能力有所不同。其中，蔚来之所以领先并非是简单的「运营之成功」，更是以下原因使然：蔚来成立于2014年11月，彼时一级市场尚处于「拿钱找项目的」热钱涌入周期，在最初多家头部互联网企业家出资创立，再到淡马锡、华平等机构进入，蔚来在融资上表现的极为积极，可谓是融资跑在运营前，小鹏汽车虽然也同期成立于2014年，但初期由研发为主，一直到2016年才完成Pre-A轮融资，错过了最佳外部环境。理想汽车成立较晚，融资也顺延退后，待到2018年大量融资之时，随着去杠杆等行为带来的外部环境的变化，必然要面临融资成本上涨的问题，根据理想汽车招股书，从2017年末的B-1轮一直到2019年末的C轮，理想汽车的估值并未有明显变化（可转化可赎回优先股单价在两年时间由13.1元到2.23美金也验证此周期内理想汽车巨大的融资压力）。用「生不逢时」难免夸张，「时过境迁」还是相对准确的。蔚来在一级市场的溢价能力或许有运气因素，而理想上市前估值保守也并不能完全证明业务不被认可。我们再思考这一问题：当融资环境不利时，对企业运营究竟会产生何等影响呢？解决该问题之前，可先做以下假设：在未大规模量产之时，初创企业需要加快基础设施建设和科研攻关，运营效率体现在将所有者权益通过运营转化为资产的能力上，见下图蔚来发展初期外部环境一片大好，这固然是好事，但或许也因为「钱来的容易」，使得蔚来资产转化率要低于两家企业，我们对此也有疑虑：蔚来与江淮汽车合作量产，与其他两家要自建工厂要轻一些，是否因此影响了资产规模的膨胀呢？为排除此干扰因素，我们选择用「研发费用」作为主要研究对象，在造车行业技术上存在诸多可探索空间前提下，评价研发费用的效率或许可以判得企业的运营效率，见下图。虽然蔚来在一级市场拿钱较为容易，对研发费用的支出总规模也最高，但在人均科研人员的支出上反而最弱，与之对应的是理想汽车：总研发费用最少，但人均规模与小鹏相差不大。考虑到理想汽车在2019年末才量产，无论是出于控制总损益表情况抑或是出于实际业务的需求，此时的研发费用总规模低于其他两家是完全可以理解的。蔚来和小鹏在上市前已经量产，但蔚来人均科研人员研发支出要远低于小鹏。蔚来在研发上采取了中美英多地多个中心的思路，很显然形成了「两头翘」的人员配置方式，上层研发和普通员工呈现极端化，收入悬差巨大，最终反而摊薄了人均支出，也就是说：蔚来在上市前存在一定的「浮夸之风」，追求表面繁荣和面子工程，不如其他两家脚踏实地。结合图二情况，若有浮夸之风，则意味着企业运营期间会有很大比例的跑冒滴漏，沉没成本比例高，部分股东融资未能转化为资产。有时候钱来得太容易反而不会珍惜，这适用于创业期的蔚来，2019年蔚来遭遇连番风波，股价受挫，2019年采取了裁员措施，也算是对先前行为的一次校准。在此可对上市之前的三家企业做如下总结：蔚来来钱最易，但最不珍惜，理想汽车融资最难，但花钱效率较高，小鹏汽车介于两者之间。接下来我们再看三家企业的产品，由于行业本身充满了不确定性，不同企业也采取了不同的发展策略，如理想汽车选择了六座的大型SUV作为突破口，蔚来汽车则从SUV到小型轿车，理论上判断，若企业产品在终端市场具有极强竞争力，势必会在定价中有所表示，也就是说，强竞争力必然会带来高毛利率，我们整理上市前三家企业的汽车毛利率情况，见下图蔚来上市之时虽然已经量产，但几乎是「卖一辆赔一辆」的负毛利率，小鹏汽车亦是如此，量产一定规模后，毛利率迟迟不能回正也很说明问题，只有理想汽车，选择了「增程式」电动汽车，确保了续航里程，且又以六座大型SUV切入了竞争力较小领域，故而有毛利率为正表现。值得注意的是，2019全年蔚来毛利率不仅未回正反而有扩大的势头，从表面看是特斯拉入侵，不断挤压产品在终端市场的增值溢价能力，对比理想汽车情况，在特斯拉之下也隐含着对企业选择造车切入点合理性的反馈。小鹏汽车选择了15万-30万元的中低端市场，面临着上有特斯拉下有比亚迪的竞争局面，在未能大规模量产降低制造端成本前提下，毛利是很难回正的。虽然市场均认同智能汽车是未来方向和前景，这是大势所趋，但从细分市场来看，竞争已经相当残酷，给造车企业的机会其实已经不多。最后，我们还想通过创始人持股比例来做分析。虽然通过AB股设置，创始人都牢牢掌握了公司话语权，似乎可以忽略持股比例这一数字，但相当多分析其实并未注意到：造车行业无论是制造端、供应链还是研发端，都处在急剧的烧钱状态，创始人持股比例高，理论上企业通过增发、债转股形式融资的可能性就越高，反之亦然，换言之，在一个烧钱行业中，创始人投资比例绝对着通过资本市场募资的动力，也就是融资潜力问题。蔚来虽然在上市前融资容易，但IPO只是下轮融资的开始，现在所处阶段要相对困难许多。小鹏和理想汽车有相对的优势，但资本定价也取决于企业经营情况，尽快跑起来，盈利，提高资本市场信心是下阶段降低融资成本的关键。根据最新数据，蔚来汽车2020年7月交付3533台，ES8和ES6两款车型面世均超过一年以上，理想汽车在只有一款车型前提下，同期交付了2516台，环比增加33%，在有毛利，上市不满一年前提下，理想成绩要相对好于已经成熟运营了一年以上的蔚来（ES6环比增长仅为5%）。此外强调一点，由于不同地方政府对增城模式的认可度不同，有地区并未认可其新能源汽车这一身份，联想汽车的竞争相较于其他两家要严峻许多，有以上成绩乃是相当不易。如果王兴说造车新势力蔚来，理想汽车和小鹏汽车会是硕果仅存的三家，那么随着运营和行业变化的深入，这三家公司分化也会逐渐加剧（目前市值尚在同一区间，且三家互为定价标准，理想汽车的普通股拆ADS比例显然也参照了蔚来的股价），此后会有一家领跑行业，且差距会不断加大。我已看好一家，你们呢？编辑/emily","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}