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AzriTan

AzriTan

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2021-11-07

Buffett still got it

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2021-05-14

HODL!

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2021-06-03

Don’t write off tesla

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2021-05-26

To the moon!

GameStop Surges And Options Traders Plan To Bank On A Moon Shot<blockquote>游戏驿站飙升，期权交易员计划寄希望于登月</blockquote>

2021-05-06

Tesla bull run incoming

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2021-03-04

Stay strong on TSLA

5 Stocks To Watch For March 4, 2021<blockquote>2021年3月4日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>

2021-12-06

Ho Ho Ho

Insider buying says a Santa Claus rally is on the way -- here are 10 stocks they favor<blockquote>内部买盘称圣诞老人反弹即将到来——以下是他们青睐的10只股票</blockquote>

2021-10-31

I’ll buy my favourite stocks on a 10% decline

Top Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming<blockquote>华尔街顶级策略师预计第四季度将出现10%的快速调整</blockquote>

2021-05-13

Right decision

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2021-04-25

Hope it’ll be a good week

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houldn’t influence your decision. Sales happen all the time, for a variety of reasons. He may have just wanted to raise some capital to pay for stuff.Let’s look long term!","listText":"Shouldn’t influence your decision. Sales happen all the time, for a variety of reasons. He may have just wanted to raise some capital to pay for stuff.Let’s look long term!","text":"Shouldn’t influence your decision. Sales happen all the time, for a variety of reasons. He may have just wanted to raise some capital to pay for stuff.Let’s look long term!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602092889","repostId":"1125810136","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125810136","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638930417,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1125810136?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 10:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's CFO Zachary Kirkhorn sold 2,652.25 Tesla shares on December 6<blockquote>特斯拉CFO Zachary Kirkhorn于12月6日出售了2652.25股特斯拉股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125810136","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla's CFO Zachary Kirkhorn sold 2,652.25 Tesla shares on December 6 for $980.43&nbsp;per&nbsp;share.\n\n\nVaibhav Taneja, Tesla's chief accounting officer, sold 1590.5 shares of Tesla on December 6 for $980.408&nbsp;per&nbsp;share.","content":"<p>Tesla's CFO Zachary Kirkhorn sold 2,652.25 Tesla shares on December 6 for $980.43&nbsp;per&nbsp;share.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉首席财务官Zachary Kirkhorn于12月6日以每股980.43美元的价格出售了2652.25股特斯拉股票。</blockquote></p><p> Vaibhav Taneja, Tesla's chief accounting officer, sold 1590.5 shares of Tesla on December 6 for $980.408&nbsp;per&nbsp;share.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉首席会计官Vaibhav Taneja于12月6日以每股980.408美元的价格出售了1590.5股特斯拉股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's CFO Zachary Kirkhorn sold 2,652.25 Tesla shares on December 6<blockquote>特斯拉CFO Zachary Kirkhorn于12月6日出售了2652.25股特斯拉股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's CFO Zachary Kirkhorn sold 2,652.25 Tesla shares on December 6<blockquote>特斯拉CFO Zachary Kirkhorn于12月6日出售了2652.25股特斯拉股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-08 10:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla's CFO Zachary Kirkhorn sold 2,652.25 Tesla shares on December 6 for $980.43&nbsp;per&nbsp;share.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉首席财务官Zachary Kirkhorn于12月6日以每股980.43美元的价格出售了2652.25股特斯拉股票。</blockquote></p><p> Vaibhav Taneja, Tesla's chief accounting officer, sold 1590.5 shares of Tesla on December 6 for $980.408&nbsp;per&nbsp;share.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉首席会计官Vaibhav Taneja于12月6日以每股980.408美元的价格出售了1590.5股特斯拉股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125810136","content_text":"Tesla's CFO Zachary Kirkhorn sold 2,652.25 Tesla shares on December 6 for $980.43 per share.\nVaibhav Taneja, Tesla's chief accounting officer, sold 1590.5 shares of Tesla on December 6 for $980.408 per share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608549929,"gmtCreate":1638765040021,"gmtModify":1638765040145,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556009150724705","idStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ho Ho Ho","listText":"Ho Ho Ho","text":"Ho Ho Ho","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608549929","repostId":"2188576930","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2188576930","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1638774986,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2188576930?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 15:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Insider buying says a Santa Claus rally is on the way -- here are 10 stocks they favor<blockquote>内部买盘称圣诞老人反弹即将到来——以下是他们青睐的10只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188576930","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Corporate insiders stepped up buying considerably when the stock market weakened. Hang on to your stock-market exposure and add more if you can.The twin fears spooking investors – the omicron COVID strain and inflation – are overdone. Stocks should proceed higher as more people figure this out, leading to a Santa Claus rally later this month.There are lots of stock bargains because there’s been so much damage, even if narrower indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have hu","content":"<p>Corporate insiders stepped up buying considerably when the stock market weakened</p><p><blockquote>当股市疲软时，公司内部人士大幅买入</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cb7144fa943d84b96ae88faa9be5533\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MarketWatch composite/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MarketWatch综合/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Hang on to your stock-market exposure and add more if you can.</p><p><blockquote>坚持你的股市敞口，如果可以的话增加更多。</blockquote></p><p> The twin fears spooking investors – the omicron COVID strain and inflation – are overdone. Stocks should proceed higher as more people figure this out, leading to a Santa Claus rally later this month.</p><p><blockquote>令投资者感到恐慌的两个担忧——奥密克戎新冠疫情压力和通货膨胀——都有些过头了。随着越来越多的人意识到这一点，股市应该会走高，从而导致本月晚些时候的圣诞老人反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Corporate insiders confirm this view. They’ve stepped up buying considerably in the market weakness. What’s more they’re buying all the right groups – travel, retail, energy and materials, among others. These are the cyclical areas that’ll do the best as worries about growth recede, and insiders know it. I don’t see any hunkering down in defensive names like consumer staples.</p><p><blockquote>企业内部人士印证了这一观点。他们在市场疲软时大幅增加了购买。更重要的是，他们正在购买所有合适的群体——旅游、零售、能源和材料等。随着对增长的担忧消退，这些周期性领域将表现最好，内部人士也知道这一点。我没有看到任何像消费必需品这样的防御性名称。</blockquote></p><p> There are lots of stock bargains because there’s been so much damage, even if narrower indexes like the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;have hung tough, propped up by a few large names. The Russell 2000 small-cap index&nbsp;is down more than 10%, and most stocks in the more widely followed indexes like the S&amp;P 500 have also fallen more than 10% at some point recently.</p><p><blockquote>尽管标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数等较窄的指数在一些大公司的支撑下表现坚挺，但仍有很多股票便宜货，因为受到了如此大的损害。Russell 2000小盘股指数下跌超过10%，标普500等更广泛关注的指数中的大多数股票最近也在某个时候下跌超过10%。</blockquote></p><p> I’ll single out 10 names favored by insiders, including several I’ve recently suggested in my stock advisory letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in my bio, below). But first, a quick look at why insiders, like me, don’t seem to be too worried about the twin fears.</p><p><blockquote>我将挑出10个受到内部人士青睐的名字，其中包括我最近在股票咨询信《重温股票》中建议的几个名字（链接在下面我的简历中）。但首先，让我们快速了解一下为什么像我这样的内部人士似乎不太担心这对双胞胎的恐惧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Omicron</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奥密克戎</b></blockquote></p><p> The concern here is that this new variant is far more contagious and deadly than the delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>这里令人担忧的是，这种新变种比德尔塔变异毒株病毒更具传染性和致命性。</blockquote></p><p> The first fear may be true. Case counts are rising sharply in South Africa, which suggests it is more contagious. As for lethality, though, omicron seems to be mild so far. There is still a lot to learn, but this is the message we consistently get from doctors and health authorities with lots of experience with COVID.</p><p><blockquote>第一种担心可能是真的。南非的病例数急剧上升，这表明它的传染性更强。不过，就杀伤力而言，奥密克戎迄今为止似乎很温和。仍有很多东西需要学习，但这是我们不断从对COVID有丰富经验的医生和卫生当局那里得到的信息。</blockquote></p><p> “What we are seeing clinically in South Africa, and remember I’m at the epicenter of this where I’m practicing, is extremely mild for us,” says Angelique Coetzee, a doctor in South Africa who has three decades of experience. “These are mild cases. We haven’t admitted anyone. I’ve spoken to other colleagues of mine and they give the same picture.”</p><p><blockquote>拥有三十年经验的南非医生安吉丽克·库切(Angelique Coetzee)表示：“我们在南非临床上看到的情况，请记住，我正处于我执业的中心，对我们来说极其温和。”“这些都是轻微病例。我们没有收治任何人。我和我的其他同事谈过，他们也给出了同样的情况。”</blockquote></p><p> Hospitalizations in South Africa “are ticking up but not incredibly fast,” agrees William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-director of its Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. U.S. health authorities confirm omicron may not be especially lethal. Both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Minnesota Department of Health describe the first cases found in the U.S. so far as mild.</p><p><blockquote>哈佛大学流行病学副教授兼传染病动力学中心联席主任威廉·哈纳奇（William Hanage）表示同意，南非的住院人数“正在增加，但速度并不是令人难以置信的快”。美国卫生当局证实，奥密克戎病毒可能不会特别致命。美国疾病控制与预防中心和明尼苏达州卫生部都将迄今为止在美国发现的首例病例描述为轻度病例。</blockquote></p><p> if the omicron variant is mild, this wouldn’t be a surprise. Respiratory viruses naturally evolve to be <i>more contagious and less lethal</i>, notes Professor Karl Lauterbach, an epidemiologist in Germany. This makes sense from the point of view of a virus. A virus has a better chance if it spreads quickly and does not kill its host.</p><p><blockquote>如果奥密克戎变种是温和的，这并不奇怪。呼吸道病毒自然进化为<i>传染性更强，致命性更低</i>德国流行病学家卡尔·劳特巴赫教授指出。从病毒的角度来看，这是有道理的。如果病毒传播迅速并且不会杀死宿主，它的机会就会更大。</blockquote></p><p> On vaccine “escape” or evasion, former Food and Drug Administration chief Scott Gottlieb thinks the current vaccines will work against omicron by suppressing symptoms enough to lower hospitalizations. “There’s a high degree of confidence that efficacy is going to be preserved,” he says. “Will it be the same 95%? Perhaps not, but you will still have a meaningful amount of efficacy.”</p><p><blockquote>关于疫苗“逃逸”或逃避，前美国食品和药物管理局局长Scott Gottlieb认为，目前的疫苗将通过抑制症状足以降低住院率来对抗奥密克戎病毒。“人们非常有信心保持功效，”他说。“会是同样的95%吗？也许不会，但你仍然会有有意义的功效。”</blockquote></p><p> He notes the mRNA vaccine companies can tweak their vaccines to make them even better, in a matter of months. Vaccine companies like Pfizer&nbsp;confirm boosters will work, and that they’ll be able to customize them for the omicron variant. “In our view and reiterated by Pfizer, the current booster will likely be effective,” says Jefferies biotech analyst Michael Yee. “A new version for 2022 can be even better.”</p><p><blockquote>他指出，mRNA疫苗公司可以在几个月内调整他们的疫苗，使其变得更好。辉瑞等疫苗公司确认加强剂会起作用，并且他们将能够为奥密克戎变种定制加强剂。杰富瑞生物技术分析师Michael Yee表示：“我们认为，辉瑞也重申，目前的增强剂可能会有效。”“2022年的新版本可能会更好。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀</b></blockquote></p><p> There’s are lots of reasons to think inflation fears are overblown. The worry here is that the Federal Reserve is “behind the curve” so it will have to hike rates aggressively, which might kill growth and the bull market. This isn’t going to happen. One sign is that commodity prices and shipping costs have been falling sharply. These are often the leading edge of inflation.</p><p><blockquote>有很多理由认为通胀担忧被夸大了。这里的担忧是美联储“落后于形势”，因此它将不得不大幅加息，这可能会扼杀增长和牛市。这是不会发生的。一个迹象是大宗商品价格和运输成本一直在大幅下降。这些往往是通货膨胀的前沿。</blockquote></p><p> Next, take a moment to drill down on the current inflation spike. To do so, consider the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s breakdown of the parts of the Core CPI Index into “flexible” categories (quick to change) and “sticky” categories (slow to change). Right now, the flexible components account for most of the headline inflation.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，花点时间深入了解当前的通胀飙升。为此，请考虑亚特兰大联储将核心CPI指数的各个部分分为“灵活”类别（变化快）和“粘性”类别（变化慢）。目前，灵活成分占总体通胀的大部分。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> These prices are up around 15% in the past year, compared to 3% gains for the “sticky” prices, points out economist Jim Paulsen, the market strategist at Leuthold Group. “While troublesome, the Core CPI Index’s overall rise is due almost entirely to prices that traditionally move around a lot, both up and down,” he says. This suggests the headline inflation rate can reverse and move down quickly from here.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group市场策略师、经济学家吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)指出，这些价格在过去一年中上涨了约15%，而“粘性”价格的涨幅为3%。“虽然很麻烦，但核心CPI指数的整体上涨几乎完全是由于传统上价格波动较大，无论是上下波动，”他表示。这表明总体通胀率可能会逆转并从这里迅速下降。</blockquote></p><p> That’s what a lot of analysts and bond market investors think. Analysts expect inflation of less than 2% over the next two to 10 years, according to projections tracked by the Atlanta Fed. Meanwhile, the 10-year inflation rate projected by investors in the bond market stands at around 2.6%, notes Paulsen. Not terribly alarming.</p><p><blockquote>这是很多分析师和债市投资者的想法。根据亚特兰大联储追踪的预测，分析师预计未来两到十年通胀率将低于2%。保尔森指出，与此同时，债券市场投资者预计的10年期通胀率约为2.6%。不是很令人担忧。</blockquote></p><p> These projections make sense to me, because companies say their supply chain issues will be fixed by around the middle of next year. Shortages linked to supply chain issues have been a main contributor to price spikes.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测对我来说是有意义的，因为公司表示他们的供应链问题将在明年年中左右得到解决。与供应链问题相关的短缺是价格飙升的主要原因。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, mobility tracking data from Alphabet,Apple,OpenTable and the Transportation Security Administration show that people in the U.S. have significantly curtailed how much they go out in public. On Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, TSA check-ins were 79%-81% of 2019 levels, compared to 85% to 90% in the prior 10 days, by my calculations. If this reduced mobility slows the economy a little, it will ease fears about inflation and the need for the Fed taking away the punch bowl too quickly.</p><p><blockquote>最后，来自Alphabet、苹果、OpenTable和运输安全管理局的移动跟踪数据显示，美国人显着减少了在公共场合外出的次数。根据我的计算，11月30日和12月1日，美国运输安全管理局的登记人数为2019年水平的79%-81%，而前10天为85%至90%。如果流动性的减少稍微减缓了经济，这将缓解人们对通胀的担忧，以及美联储过快拿走潘趣酒碗的必要性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Insiders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内部人士</b></blockquote></p><p> In a mini-replay of March-October of 2020 when the COVID crisis first raged, insiders have once again stepped up to buy market weakness caused by fresh COVID fears. True, insiders are not epidemiologists. But they are not dummies either. They have good networks of contacts and they see the tone of their businesses every day. Their buying is focused on all the right areas like cyclicals, retail, energy and industrials, not defensive names.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年3月至10月COVID危机首次肆虐时的迷你回放中，内部人士再次站出来买入由新的COVID担忧造成的市场疲软。诚然，内部人士不是流行病学家。但他们也不是傻瓜。他们有良好的人脉网络，他们每天都能看到自己业务的基调。他们的购买集中在所有正确的领域，如周期性股票、零售、能源和工业，而不是防御性股票。</blockquote></p><p> Companies where insiders have been buying meaningful amounts over the past several days include outdoor and retail names Six Flags Entertainment,American Eagle Outfitters,Nordstrom&nbsp;and American Woodmark; travel names like Delta Air Lines&nbsp;and Playa Hotels &amp; Resorts ; energy names like Exxon Mobil&nbsp;and EOG Resources; and materials names like Cleveland-Cliffs&nbsp;and Orion Engineered Carbons.</p><p><blockquote>过去几天，内部人士大量买入的公司包括户外和零售品牌六旗娱乐公司、American Eagle Outfitters、Nordstrom和American Woodmark；达美航空和普拉亚酒店及度假村等旅游公司；埃克森美孚和EOG资源等能源公司；以及克利夫兰悬崖和猎户座工程碳等材料名称。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ho, ho, ho!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>嗬，嗬，嗬！</b></blockquote></p><p> Their buying confirms work by seasonality and trading expert Larry Williams who tells me his work concludes we can expect a “Santa Claus” rally once again, later this month. We’ll see, but since the two main fears are false fears that will till take a little time to more fully recede, this makes sense to me.</p><p><blockquote>他们的购买证实了季节性和交易专家拉里·威廉姆斯的工作，他告诉我，他的工作得出的结论是，我们可以期待本月晚些时候再次出现“圣诞老人”反弹。我们会看到的，但由于两个主要的恐惧是虚假的恐惧，需要一点时间才能完全消退，这对我来说是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Insider buying says a Santa Claus rally is on the way -- here are 10 stocks they favor<blockquote>内部买盘称圣诞老人反弹即将到来——以下是他们青睐的10只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInsider buying says a Santa Claus rally is on the way -- here are 10 stocks they favor<blockquote>内部买盘称圣诞老人反弹即将到来——以下是他们青睐的10只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-06 15:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Corporate insiders stepped up buying considerably when the stock market weakened</p><p><blockquote>当股市疲软时，公司内部人士大幅买入</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cb7144fa943d84b96ae88faa9be5533\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MarketWatch composite/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MarketWatch综合/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Hang on to your stock-market exposure and add more if you can.</p><p><blockquote>坚持你的股市敞口，如果可以的话增加更多。</blockquote></p><p> The twin fears spooking investors – the omicron COVID strain and inflation – are overdone. Stocks should proceed higher as more people figure this out, leading to a Santa Claus rally later this month.</p><p><blockquote>令投资者感到恐慌的两个担忧——奥密克戎新冠疫情压力和通货膨胀——都有些过头了。随着越来越多的人意识到这一点，股市应该会走高，从而导致本月晚些时候的圣诞老人反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Corporate insiders confirm this view. They’ve stepped up buying considerably in the market weakness. What’s more they’re buying all the right groups – travel, retail, energy and materials, among others. These are the cyclical areas that’ll do the best as worries about growth recede, and insiders know it. I don’t see any hunkering down in defensive names like consumer staples.</p><p><blockquote>企业内部人士印证了这一观点。他们在市场疲软时大幅增加了购买。更重要的是，他们正在购买所有合适的群体——旅游、零售、能源和材料等。随着对增长的担忧消退，这些周期性领域将表现最好，内部人士也知道这一点。我没有看到任何像消费必需品这样的防御性名称。</blockquote></p><p> There are lots of stock bargains because there’s been so much damage, even if narrower indexes like the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;have hung tough, propped up by a few large names. The Russell 2000 small-cap index&nbsp;is down more than 10%, and most stocks in the more widely followed indexes like the S&amp;P 500 have also fallen more than 10% at some point recently.</p><p><blockquote>尽管标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数等较窄的指数在一些大公司的支撑下表现坚挺，但仍有很多股票便宜货，因为受到了如此大的损害。Russell 2000小盘股指数下跌超过10%，标普500等更广泛关注的指数中的大多数股票最近也在某个时候下跌超过10%。</blockquote></p><p> I’ll single out 10 names favored by insiders, including several I’ve recently suggested in my stock advisory letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in my bio, below). But first, a quick look at why insiders, like me, don’t seem to be too worried about the twin fears.</p><p><blockquote>我将挑出10个受到内部人士青睐的名字，其中包括我最近在股票咨询信《重温股票》中建议的几个名字（链接在下面我的简历中）。但首先，让我们快速了解一下为什么像我这样的内部人士似乎不太担心这对双胞胎的恐惧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Omicron</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奥密克戎</b></blockquote></p><p> The concern here is that this new variant is far more contagious and deadly than the delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>这里令人担忧的是，这种新变种比德尔塔变异毒株病毒更具传染性和致命性。</blockquote></p><p> The first fear may be true. Case counts are rising sharply in South Africa, which suggests it is more contagious. As for lethality, though, omicron seems to be mild so far. There is still a lot to learn, but this is the message we consistently get from doctors and health authorities with lots of experience with COVID.</p><p><blockquote>第一种担心可能是真的。南非的病例数急剧上升，这表明它的传染性更强。不过，就杀伤力而言，奥密克戎迄今为止似乎很温和。仍有很多东西需要学习，但这是我们不断从对COVID有丰富经验的医生和卫生当局那里得到的信息。</blockquote></p><p> “What we are seeing clinically in South Africa, and remember I’m at the epicenter of this where I’m practicing, is extremely mild for us,” says Angelique Coetzee, a doctor in South Africa who has three decades of experience. “These are mild cases. We haven’t admitted anyone. I’ve spoken to other colleagues of mine and they give the same picture.”</p><p><blockquote>拥有三十年经验的南非医生安吉丽克·库切(Angelique Coetzee)表示：“我们在南非临床上看到的情况，请记住，我正处于我执业的中心，对我们来说极其温和。”“这些都是轻微病例。我们没有收治任何人。我和我的其他同事谈过，他们也给出了同样的情况。”</blockquote></p><p> Hospitalizations in South Africa “are ticking up but not incredibly fast,” agrees William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-director of its Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. U.S. health authorities confirm omicron may not be especially lethal. Both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Minnesota Department of Health describe the first cases found in the U.S. so far as mild.</p><p><blockquote>哈佛大学流行病学副教授兼传染病动力学中心联席主任威廉·哈纳奇（William Hanage）表示同意，南非的住院人数“正在增加，但速度并不是令人难以置信的快”。美国卫生当局证实，奥密克戎病毒可能不会特别致命。美国疾病控制与预防中心和明尼苏达州卫生部都将迄今为止在美国发现的首例病例描述为轻度病例。</blockquote></p><p> if the omicron variant is mild, this wouldn’t be a surprise. Respiratory viruses naturally evolve to be <i>more contagious and less lethal</i>, notes Professor Karl Lauterbach, an epidemiologist in Germany. This makes sense from the point of view of a virus. A virus has a better chance if it spreads quickly and does not kill its host.</p><p><blockquote>如果奥密克戎变种是温和的，这并不奇怪。呼吸道病毒自然进化为<i>传染性更强，致命性更低</i>德国流行病学家卡尔·劳特巴赫教授指出。从病毒的角度来看，这是有道理的。如果病毒传播迅速并且不会杀死宿主，它的机会就会更大。</blockquote></p><p> On vaccine “escape” or evasion, former Food and Drug Administration chief Scott Gottlieb thinks the current vaccines will work against omicron by suppressing symptoms enough to lower hospitalizations. “There’s a high degree of confidence that efficacy is going to be preserved,” he says. “Will it be the same 95%? Perhaps not, but you will still have a meaningful amount of efficacy.”</p><p><blockquote>关于疫苗“逃逸”或逃避，前美国食品和药物管理局局长Scott Gottlieb认为，目前的疫苗将通过抑制症状足以降低住院率来对抗奥密克戎病毒。“人们非常有信心保持功效，”他说。“会是同样的95%吗？也许不会，但你仍然会有有意义的功效。”</blockquote></p><p> He notes the mRNA vaccine companies can tweak their vaccines to make them even better, in a matter of months. Vaccine companies like Pfizer&nbsp;confirm boosters will work, and that they’ll be able to customize them for the omicron variant. “In our view and reiterated by Pfizer, the current booster will likely be effective,” says Jefferies biotech analyst Michael Yee. “A new version for 2022 can be even better.”</p><p><blockquote>他指出，mRNA疫苗公司可以在几个月内调整他们的疫苗，使其变得更好。辉瑞等疫苗公司确认加强剂会起作用，并且他们将能够为奥密克戎变种定制加强剂。杰富瑞生物技术分析师Michael Yee表示：“我们认为，辉瑞也重申，目前的增强剂可能会有效。”“2022年的新版本可能会更好。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀</b></blockquote></p><p> There’s are lots of reasons to think inflation fears are overblown. The worry here is that the Federal Reserve is “behind the curve” so it will have to hike rates aggressively, which might kill growth and the bull market. This isn’t going to happen. One sign is that commodity prices and shipping costs have been falling sharply. These are often the leading edge of inflation.</p><p><blockquote>有很多理由认为通胀担忧被夸大了。这里的担忧是美联储“落后于形势”，因此它将不得不大幅加息，这可能会扼杀增长和牛市。这是不会发生的。一个迹象是大宗商品价格和运输成本一直在大幅下降。这些往往是通货膨胀的前沿。</blockquote></p><p> Next, take a moment to drill down on the current inflation spike. To do so, consider the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s breakdown of the parts of the Core CPI Index into “flexible” categories (quick to change) and “sticky” categories (slow to change). Right now, the flexible components account for most of the headline inflation.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，花点时间深入了解当前的通胀飙升。为此，请考虑亚特兰大联储将核心CPI指数的各个部分分为“灵活”类别（变化快）和“粘性”类别（变化慢）。目前，灵活成分占总体通胀的大部分。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> These prices are up around 15% in the past year, compared to 3% gains for the “sticky” prices, points out economist Jim Paulsen, the market strategist at Leuthold Group. “While troublesome, the Core CPI Index’s overall rise is due almost entirely to prices that traditionally move around a lot, both up and down,” he says. This suggests the headline inflation rate can reverse and move down quickly from here.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group市场策略师、经济学家吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)指出，这些价格在过去一年中上涨了约15%，而“粘性”价格的涨幅为3%。“虽然很麻烦，但核心CPI指数的整体上涨几乎完全是由于传统上价格波动较大，无论是上下波动，”他表示。这表明总体通胀率可能会逆转并从这里迅速下降。</blockquote></p><p> That’s what a lot of analysts and bond market investors think. Analysts expect inflation of less than 2% over the next two to 10 years, according to projections tracked by the Atlanta Fed. Meanwhile, the 10-year inflation rate projected by investors in the bond market stands at around 2.6%, notes Paulsen. Not terribly alarming.</p><p><blockquote>这是很多分析师和债市投资者的想法。根据亚特兰大联储追踪的预测，分析师预计未来两到十年通胀率将低于2%。保尔森指出，与此同时，债券市场投资者预计的10年期通胀率约为2.6%。不是很令人担忧。</blockquote></p><p> These projections make sense to me, because companies say their supply chain issues will be fixed by around the middle of next year. Shortages linked to supply chain issues have been a main contributor to price spikes.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测对我来说是有意义的，因为公司表示他们的供应链问题将在明年年中左右得到解决。与供应链问题相关的短缺是价格飙升的主要原因。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, mobility tracking data from Alphabet,Apple,OpenTable and the Transportation Security Administration show that people in the U.S. have significantly curtailed how much they go out in public. On Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, TSA check-ins were 79%-81% of 2019 levels, compared to 85% to 90% in the prior 10 days, by my calculations. If this reduced mobility slows the economy a little, it will ease fears about inflation and the need for the Fed taking away the punch bowl too quickly.</p><p><blockquote>最后，来自Alphabet、苹果、OpenTable和运输安全管理局的移动跟踪数据显示，美国人显着减少了在公共场合外出的次数。根据我的计算，11月30日和12月1日，美国运输安全管理局的登记人数为2019年水平的79%-81%，而前10天为85%至90%。如果流动性的减少稍微减缓了经济，这将缓解人们对通胀的担忧，以及美联储过快拿走潘趣酒碗的必要性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Insiders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内部人士</b></blockquote></p><p> In a mini-replay of March-October of 2020 when the COVID crisis first raged, insiders have once again stepped up to buy market weakness caused by fresh COVID fears. True, insiders are not epidemiologists. But they are not dummies either. They have good networks of contacts and they see the tone of their businesses every day. Their buying is focused on all the right areas like cyclicals, retail, energy and industrials, not defensive names.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年3月至10月COVID危机首次肆虐时的迷你回放中，内部人士再次站出来买入由新的COVID担忧造成的市场疲软。诚然，内部人士不是流行病学家。但他们也不是傻瓜。他们有良好的人脉网络，他们每天都能看到自己业务的基调。他们的购买集中在所有正确的领域，如周期性股票、零售、能源和工业，而不是防御性股票。</blockquote></p><p> Companies where insiders have been buying meaningful amounts over the past several days include outdoor and retail names Six Flags Entertainment,American Eagle Outfitters,Nordstrom&nbsp;and American Woodmark; travel names like Delta Air Lines&nbsp;and Playa Hotels &amp; Resorts ; energy names like Exxon Mobil&nbsp;and EOG Resources; and materials names like Cleveland-Cliffs&nbsp;and Orion Engineered Carbons.</p><p><blockquote>过去几天，内部人士大量买入的公司包括户外和零售品牌六旗娱乐公司、American Eagle Outfitters、Nordstrom和American Woodmark；达美航空和普拉亚酒店及度假村等旅游公司；埃克森美孚和EOG资源等能源公司；以及克利夫兰悬崖和猎户座工程碳等材料名称。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ho, ho, ho!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>嗬，嗬，嗬！</b></blockquote></p><p> Their buying confirms work by seasonality and trading expert Larry Williams who tells me his work concludes we can expect a “Santa Claus” rally once again, later this month. We’ll see, but since the two main fears are false fears that will till take a little time to more fully recede, this makes sense to me.</p><p><blockquote>他们的购买证实了季节性和交易专家拉里·威廉姆斯的工作，他告诉我，他的工作得出的结论是，我们可以期待本月晚些时候再次出现“圣诞老人”反弹。我们会看到的，但由于两个主要的恐惧是虚假的恐惧，需要一点时间才能完全消退，这对我来说是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/insider-buying-says-a-santa-claus-rally-is-on-the-way-here-are-10-stocks-they-favor-11638541634?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLYA":"Playa Hotels & Resorts NV","CLF":"克利夫兰克里夫","AEO":"美鹰服饰","OEC":"Orion Engineered Carbons","AMWD":"美国伍德马克","SIX":"Six Flags Entertainment Corp","DAL":"达美航空","XOM":"埃克森美孚","EOG":"依欧格资源","JWN":"诺德斯特龙"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/insider-buying-says-a-santa-claus-rally-is-on-the-way-here-are-10-stocks-they-favor-11638541634?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188576930","content_text":"Corporate insiders stepped up buying considerably when the stock market weakened\nMarketWatch composite/Getty Images\nHang on to your stock-market exposure and add more if you can.\nThe twin fears spooking investors – the omicron COVID strain and inflation – are overdone. Stocks should proceed higher as more people figure this out, leading to a Santa Claus rally later this month.\nCorporate insiders confirm this view. They’ve stepped up buying considerably in the market weakness. What’s more they’re buying all the right groups – travel, retail, energy and materials, among others. These are the cyclical areas that’ll do the best as worries about growth recede, and insiders know it. I don’t see any hunkering down in defensive names like consumer staples.\nThere are lots of stock bargains because there’s been so much damage, even if narrower indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have hung tough, propped up by a few large names. The Russell 2000 small-cap index is down more than 10%, and most stocks in the more widely followed indexes like the S&P 500 have also fallen more than 10% at some point recently.\nI’ll single out 10 names favored by insiders, including several I’ve recently suggested in my stock advisory letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in my bio, below). But first, a quick look at why insiders, like me, don’t seem to be too worried about the twin fears.\nOmicron\nThe concern here is that this new variant is far more contagious and deadly than the delta variant.\nThe first fear may be true. Case counts are rising sharply in South Africa, which suggests it is more contagious. As for lethality, though, omicron seems to be mild so far. There is still a lot to learn, but this is the message we consistently get from doctors and health authorities with lots of experience with COVID.\n“What we are seeing clinically in South Africa, and remember I’m at the epicenter of this where I’m practicing, is extremely mild for us,” says Angelique Coetzee, a doctor in South Africa who has three decades of experience. “These are mild cases. We haven’t admitted anyone. I’ve spoken to other colleagues of mine and they give the same picture.”\nHospitalizations in South Africa “are ticking up but not incredibly fast,” agrees William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-director of its Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. U.S. health authorities confirm omicron may not be especially lethal. Both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Minnesota Department of Health describe the first cases found in the U.S. so far as mild.\nif the omicron variant is mild, this wouldn’t be a surprise. Respiratory viruses naturally evolve to be more contagious and less lethal, notes Professor Karl Lauterbach, an epidemiologist in Germany. This makes sense from the point of view of a virus. A virus has a better chance if it spreads quickly and does not kill its host.\nOn vaccine “escape” or evasion, former Food and Drug Administration chief Scott Gottlieb thinks the current vaccines will work against omicron by suppressing symptoms enough to lower hospitalizations. “There’s a high degree of confidence that efficacy is going to be preserved,” he says. “Will it be the same 95%? Perhaps not, but you will still have a meaningful amount of efficacy.”\nHe notes the mRNA vaccine companies can tweak their vaccines to make them even better, in a matter of months. Vaccine companies like Pfizer confirm boosters will work, and that they’ll be able to customize them for the omicron variant. “In our view and reiterated by Pfizer, the current booster will likely be effective,” says Jefferies biotech analyst Michael Yee. “A new version for 2022 can be even better.”\nInflation\nThere’s are lots of reasons to think inflation fears are overblown. The worry here is that the Federal Reserve is “behind the curve” so it will have to hike rates aggressively, which might kill growth and the bull market. This isn’t going to happen. One sign is that commodity prices and shipping costs have been falling sharply. These are often the leading edge of inflation.\nNext, take a moment to drill down on the current inflation spike. To do so, consider the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s breakdown of the parts of the Core CPI Index into “flexible” categories (quick to change) and “sticky” categories (slow to change). Right now, the flexible components account for most of the headline inflation.\nThese prices are up around 15% in the past year, compared to 3% gains for the “sticky” prices, points out economist Jim Paulsen, the market strategist at Leuthold Group. “While troublesome, the Core CPI Index’s overall rise is due almost entirely to prices that traditionally move around a lot, both up and down,” he says. This suggests the headline inflation rate can reverse and move down quickly from here.\nThat’s what a lot of analysts and bond market investors think. Analysts expect inflation of less than 2% over the next two to 10 years, according to projections tracked by the Atlanta Fed. Meanwhile, the 10-year inflation rate projected by investors in the bond market stands at around 2.6%, notes Paulsen. Not terribly alarming.\nThese projections make sense to me, because companies say their supply chain issues will be fixed by around the middle of next year. Shortages linked to supply chain issues have been a main contributor to price spikes.\nFinally, mobility tracking data from Alphabet,Apple,OpenTable and the Transportation Security Administration show that people in the U.S. have significantly curtailed how much they go out in public. On Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, TSA check-ins were 79%-81% of 2019 levels, compared to 85% to 90% in the prior 10 days, by my calculations. If this reduced mobility slows the economy a little, it will ease fears about inflation and the need for the Fed taking away the punch bowl too quickly.\nInsiders\nIn a mini-replay of March-October of 2020 when the COVID crisis first raged, insiders have once again stepped up to buy market weakness caused by fresh COVID fears. True, insiders are not epidemiologists. But they are not dummies either. They have good networks of contacts and they see the tone of their businesses every day. Their buying is focused on all the right areas like cyclicals, retail, energy and industrials, not defensive names.\nCompanies where insiders have been buying meaningful amounts over the past several days include outdoor and retail names Six Flags Entertainment,American Eagle Outfitters,Nordstrom and American Woodmark; travel names like Delta Air Lines and Playa Hotels & Resorts ; energy names like Exxon Mobil and EOG Resources; and materials names like Cleveland-Cliffs and Orion Engineered Carbons.\nHo, ho, ho!\nTheir buying confirms work by seasonality and trading expert Larry Williams who tells me his work concludes we can expect a “Santa Claus” rally once again, later this month. We’ll see, but since the two main fears are false fears that will till take a little time to more fully recede, this makes sense to me.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLF":0.9,"PLYA":0.9,"JWN":0.9,"SIX":0.9,"EOG":0.9,"AEO":0.9,"AMWD":0.9,"XOM":0.9,"DAL":0.9,"OEC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608549015,"gmtCreate":1638765015848,"gmtModify":1638765015937,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556009150724705","idStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip?","listText":"Buy the dip?","text":"Buy the dip?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608549015","repostId":"1160733386","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601853146,"gmtCreate":1638512346290,"gmtModify":1638512346379,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556009150724705","idStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"When life gives you lemons&nbsp;","listText":"When life gives you lemons&nbsp;","text":"When life gives you lemons","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601853146","repostId":"1144851802","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144851802","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638501564,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144851802?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 11:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Growth Stocks Down Over 50% That Look Like Amazing Bargains<blockquote>2只成长型股票下跌超过50%，看起来非常便宜</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144851802","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Many growth stocks are down sharply, and these two look like great opportunities.\nFirst off, the sto","content":"<p>Many growth stocks are down sharply, and these two look like great opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>很多成长股都在大幅下跌，这两只看起来是很好的机会。</blockquote></p><p> First off, the stock market isn't&nbsp;<i>technically</i>&nbsp;in a correction. Not yet, anyway. As of this writing, the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;is just 2.5% off its recent high, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down by less than 5%, and neither are close to the 10% decline that typically defines a market correction.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市不是<i>严格说来</i>更正一下。反正现在还没有。在撰写本文时，<b>标普500</b>仅较近期高点下跌2.5%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克下跌不到5%，均未接近通常定义市场调整的10%跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, many investors certainly feel like we're in a correction. Some of the most popular growth stocks in the market are down by double-digit percentages, and many are down by 30%, 50%, or more. I know that I've checked my portfolio recently and have felt like I'm in my own personal bear market.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，许多投资者确实觉得我们正处于调整之中。一些市场上最受欢迎的成长股下跌了两位数的百分比，许多下跌了30%、50%或更多。我知道我最近检查了我的投资组合，感觉自己正处于自己的熊市中。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, while nobody enjoys watching their stocks decline, situations like this can create excellent opportunities for patient long-term investors. Here are two growth stocks in particular that look like outstanding bargains and are worth considering.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，虽然没有人喜欢看着自己的股票下跌，但这种情况可以为耐心的长期投资者创造绝佳的机会。这里有两只成长型股票，它们看起来非常便宜，值得考虑。</blockquote></p><p> A disruptor with a massive opportunity</p><p><blockquote>拥有巨大机遇的颠覆者</blockquote></p><p> Insurancedisruptor&nbsp;<b>Lemonade</b>&nbsp;has steadily declined throughout 2021 and took another dive after its third-quarter earnings report and the announcement that it plans to acquire&nbsp;<b>Metromile</b>. As of Dec. 1, Lemonade is a staggering 75% below its January 2021 all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>保险颠覆者<b>柠檬汽水</b>2021年全年稳步下降，并在第三季度收益报告和宣布计划收购后再次暴跌<b>地铁里程</b>截至12月1日，柠檬水的价格比2021年1月的历史高点低了75%。</blockquote></p><p> By focusing on younger consumers and offering an easy and efficient way of buying insurance and processing claims, Lemonade has scaled its business to about 1.4 million customers in a fraction of the time it took some of the biggest players in the game to do so. With its auto insurance product just starting to roll out, Lemonade has a massive $300 billion addressable market in the U.S. alone, and a big head start when it comes to current customers to cross-sell it to. As co-CEO Daniel Schreiber recently told me in an interview on our&nbsp;<i>Industry Focus</i>&nbsp;podcast, he believes Lemonade's business could grow to 100 times its current size over time, and I agree. I've been a Lemonade shareholder since shortly after its IPO, and as I recently wrote, I plan to&nbsp;double down on my investment&nbsp;if the current share price holds.</p><p><blockquote>通过专注于年轻消费者并提供一种简单高效的购买保险和处理索赔的方式，Lemonade已将其业务扩大到约140万客户，而所用时间只是游戏中一些最大参与者的一小部分。由于其汽车保险产品刚刚开始推出，Lemonade仅在美国就拥有3000亿美元的巨大潜在市场，并且在向现有客户交叉销售该产品方面处于领先地位。正如联合首席执行官Daniel Schreiber最近在接受我们的采访时告诉我的那样<i>行业焦点</i>播客中，他相信随着时间的推移，Lemonade的业务可能会增长到目前规模的100倍，我同意。自Lemonade首次公开募股后不久，我就成为了该公司的股东，正如我最近所写，如果当前股价保持不变，我计划加倍投资。</blockquote></p><p> Don't let a rival's problems scare you away</p><p><blockquote>不要让对手的问题吓跑你</blockquote></p><p> A few weeks ago,<b>Zillow</b>&nbsp;shocked the real estate world by pulling the plug on its iBuying business, and investors were understandably concerned that other iBuyers might be in trouble as well. Leading iBuyer&nbsp;<b>Opendoor Technologies</b>&nbsp;took a dive and is now nearly 60% off its highs.</p><p><blockquote>几周前，<b>Zillow</b>终止iBuying业务震惊了房地产界，投资者担心其他iBuyers也可能陷入困境，这是可以理解的。领先的iBuyer<b>开门技术</b>暴跌，目前较高点下跌近60%。</blockquote></p><p> However, Opendoor's business is doing just fine. Its unit economics have been far superior to those of Zillow, and its business is growing rapidly. The company bought 15,181 homes in the third quarter, which is as many as the&nbsp;<i>entire industry</i>&nbsp;bought in the second quarter. And its gross profit margin of 8.9% is impressive and gives the company a nice path to future profitability.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Opendoor的业务做得很好。其单位经济效益已远优于Zillow，业务增长迅速。该公司第三季度购买了15,181套房屋，与<i>整个行业</i>二季度买的。其8.9%的毛利率令人印象深刻，为该公司未来的盈利提供了一条良好的道路。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, don't think of Zillow's exit as a negative. That's a mistake. Instead, think of it this way -- Opendoor is in a new and massive industry that had just four serious players, and the one that represented the biggest competitive threat just bowed out of the race.</p><p><blockquote>最后，不要认为Zillow的退出是负面的。那是个错误。相反，可以这样想——Opendoor处于一个新的庞大行业，只有四个重要的参与者，而代表最大竞争威胁的参与者刚刚退出了竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Expect a roller-coaster ride</p><p><blockquote>期待一次过山车之旅</blockquote></p><p> One important thing to keep in mind is that all three of these might look like bargains from a&nbsp;<i>long-term</i>&nbsp;perspective, but I have absolutely no idea what they'll do over the coming weeks, months, or even the next year. All three are likely to be volatile for the foreseeable future as their growth stories play out. Invest accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>需要记住的一件重要事情是，这三种产品可能看起来都像是来自<i>长期</i>但我完全不知道他们在未来几周、几个月甚至明年会做什么。随着增长故事的展开，这三家公司在可预见的未来都可能出现波动。相应地投资。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Growth Stocks Down Over 50% That Look Like Amazing Bargains<blockquote>2只成长型股票下跌超过50%，看起来非常便宜</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Growth Stocks Down Over 50% That Look Like Amazing Bargains<blockquote>2只成长型股票下跌超过50%，看起来非常便宜</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-03 11:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Many growth stocks are down sharply, and these two look like great opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>很多成长股都在大幅下跌，这两只看起来是很好的机会。</blockquote></p><p> First off, the stock market isn't&nbsp;<i>technically</i>&nbsp;in a correction. Not yet, anyway. As of this writing, the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;is just 2.5% off its recent high, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down by less than 5%, and neither are close to the 10% decline that typically defines a market correction.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市不是<i>严格说来</i>更正一下。反正现在还没有。在撰写本文时，<b>标普500</b>仅较近期高点下跌2.5%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克下跌不到5%，均未接近通常定义市场调整的10%跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, many investors certainly feel like we're in a correction. Some of the most popular growth stocks in the market are down by double-digit percentages, and many are down by 30%, 50%, or more. I know that I've checked my portfolio recently and have felt like I'm in my own personal bear market.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，许多投资者确实觉得我们正处于调整之中。一些市场上最受欢迎的成长股下跌了两位数的百分比，许多下跌了30%、50%或更多。我知道我最近检查了我的投资组合，感觉自己正处于自己的熊市中。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, while nobody enjoys watching their stocks decline, situations like this can create excellent opportunities for patient long-term investors. Here are two growth stocks in particular that look like outstanding bargains and are worth considering.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，虽然没有人喜欢看着自己的股票下跌，但这种情况可以为耐心的长期投资者创造绝佳的机会。这里有两只成长型股票，它们看起来非常便宜，值得考虑。</blockquote></p><p> A disruptor with a massive opportunity</p><p><blockquote>拥有巨大机遇的颠覆者</blockquote></p><p> Insurancedisruptor&nbsp;<b>Lemonade</b>&nbsp;has steadily declined throughout 2021 and took another dive after its third-quarter earnings report and the announcement that it plans to acquire&nbsp;<b>Metromile</b>. As of Dec. 1, Lemonade is a staggering 75% below its January 2021 all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>保险颠覆者<b>柠檬汽水</b>2021年全年稳步下降，并在第三季度收益报告和宣布计划收购后再次暴跌<b>地铁里程</b>截至12月1日，柠檬水的价格比2021年1月的历史高点低了75%。</blockquote></p><p> By focusing on younger consumers and offering an easy and efficient way of buying insurance and processing claims, Lemonade has scaled its business to about 1.4 million customers in a fraction of the time it took some of the biggest players in the game to do so. With its auto insurance product just starting to roll out, Lemonade has a massive $300 billion addressable market in the U.S. alone, and a big head start when it comes to current customers to cross-sell it to. As co-CEO Daniel Schreiber recently told me in an interview on our&nbsp;<i>Industry Focus</i>&nbsp;podcast, he believes Lemonade's business could grow to 100 times its current size over time, and I agree. I've been a Lemonade shareholder since shortly after its IPO, and as I recently wrote, I plan to&nbsp;double down on my investment&nbsp;if the current share price holds.</p><p><blockquote>通过专注于年轻消费者并提供一种简单高效的购买保险和处理索赔的方式，Lemonade已将其业务扩大到约140万客户，而所用时间只是游戏中一些最大参与者的一小部分。由于其汽车保险产品刚刚开始推出，Lemonade仅在美国就拥有3000亿美元的巨大潜在市场，并且在向现有客户交叉销售该产品方面处于领先地位。正如联合首席执行官Daniel Schreiber最近在接受我们的采访时告诉我的那样<i>行业焦点</i>播客中，他相信随着时间的推移，Lemonade的业务可能会增长到目前规模的100倍，我同意。自Lemonade首次公开募股后不久，我就成为了该公司的股东，正如我最近所写，如果当前股价保持不变，我计划加倍投资。</blockquote></p><p> Don't let a rival's problems scare you away</p><p><blockquote>不要让对手的问题吓跑你</blockquote></p><p> A few weeks ago,<b>Zillow</b>&nbsp;shocked the real estate world by pulling the plug on its iBuying business, and investors were understandably concerned that other iBuyers might be in trouble as well. Leading iBuyer&nbsp;<b>Opendoor Technologies</b>&nbsp;took a dive and is now nearly 60% off its highs.</p><p><blockquote>几周前，<b>Zillow</b>终止iBuying业务震惊了房地产界，投资者担心其他iBuyers也可能陷入困境，这是可以理解的。领先的iBuyer<b>开门技术</b>暴跌，目前较高点下跌近60%。</blockquote></p><p> However, Opendoor's business is doing just fine. Its unit economics have been far superior to those of Zillow, and its business is growing rapidly. The company bought 15,181 homes in the third quarter, which is as many as the&nbsp;<i>entire industry</i>&nbsp;bought in the second quarter. And its gross profit margin of 8.9% is impressive and gives the company a nice path to future profitability.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Opendoor的业务做得很好。其单位经济效益已远优于Zillow，业务增长迅速。该公司第三季度购买了15,181套房屋，与<i>整个行业</i>二季度买的。其8.9%的毛利率令人印象深刻，为该公司未来的盈利提供了一条良好的道路。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, don't think of Zillow's exit as a negative. That's a mistake. Instead, think of it this way -- Opendoor is in a new and massive industry that had just four serious players, and the one that represented the biggest competitive threat just bowed out of the race.</p><p><blockquote>最后，不要认为Zillow的退出是负面的。那是个错误。相反，可以这样想——Opendoor处于一个新的庞大行业，只有四个重要的参与者，而代表最大竞争威胁的参与者刚刚退出了竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Expect a roller-coaster ride</p><p><blockquote>期待一次过山车之旅</blockquote></p><p> One important thing to keep in mind is that all three of these might look like bargains from a&nbsp;<i>long-term</i>&nbsp;perspective, but I have absolutely no idea what they'll do over the coming weeks, months, or even the next year. All three are likely to be volatile for the foreseeable future as their growth stories play out. Invest accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>需要记住的一件重要事情是，这三种产品可能看起来都像是来自<i>长期</i>但我完全不知道他们在未来几周、几个月甚至明年会做什么。随着增长故事的展开，这三家公司在可预见的未来都可能出现波动。相应地投资。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/02/2-growth-stocks-down-more-than-50-that-look-like-a/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow","OPEN":"Opendoor Technologies Inc","LMND":"Lemonade, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/02/2-growth-stocks-down-more-than-50-that-look-like-a/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144851802","content_text":"Many growth stocks are down sharply, and these two look like great opportunities.\nFirst off, the stock market isn't technically in a correction. Not yet, anyway. As of this writing, the S&P 500 is just 2.5% off its recent high, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down by less than 5%, and neither are close to the 10% decline that typically defines a market correction.\nHaving said that, many investors certainly feel like we're in a correction. Some of the most popular growth stocks in the market are down by double-digit percentages, and many are down by 30%, 50%, or more. I know that I've checked my portfolio recently and have felt like I'm in my own personal bear market.\nWith that in mind, while nobody enjoys watching their stocks decline, situations like this can create excellent opportunities for patient long-term investors. Here are two growth stocks in particular that look like outstanding bargains and are worth considering.\nA disruptor with a massive opportunity\nInsurancedisruptor Lemonade has steadily declined throughout 2021 and took another dive after its third-quarter earnings report and the announcement that it plans to acquire Metromile. As of Dec. 1, Lemonade is a staggering 75% below its January 2021 all-time high.\nBy focusing on younger consumers and offering an easy and efficient way of buying insurance and processing claims, Lemonade has scaled its business to about 1.4 million customers in a fraction of the time it took some of the biggest players in the game to do so. With its auto insurance product just starting to roll out, Lemonade has a massive $300 billion addressable market in the U.S. alone, and a big head start when it comes to current customers to cross-sell it to. As co-CEO Daniel Schreiber recently told me in an interview on our Industry Focus podcast, he believes Lemonade's business could grow to 100 times its current size over time, and I agree. I've been a Lemonade shareholder since shortly after its IPO, and as I recently wrote, I plan to double down on my investment if the current share price holds.\nDon't let a rival's problems scare you away\nA few weeks ago,Zillow shocked the real estate world by pulling the plug on its iBuying business, and investors were understandably concerned that other iBuyers might be in trouble as well. Leading iBuyer Opendoor Technologies took a dive and is now nearly 60% off its highs.\nHowever, Opendoor's business is doing just fine. Its unit economics have been far superior to those of Zillow, and its business is growing rapidly. The company bought 15,181 homes in the third quarter, which is as many as the entire industry bought in the second quarter. And its gross profit margin of 8.9% is impressive and gives the company a nice path to future profitability.\nFinally, don't think of Zillow's exit as a negative. That's a mistake. Instead, think of it this way -- Opendoor is in a new and massive industry that had just four serious players, and the one that represented the biggest competitive threat just bowed out of the race.\nExpect a roller-coaster ride\nOne important thing to keep in mind is that all three of these might look like bargains from a long-term perspective, but I have absolutely no idea what they'll do over the coming weeks, months, or even the next year. All three are likely to be volatile for the foreseeable future as their growth stories play out. Invest accordingly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LMND":0.9,"Z":0.9,"OPEN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603478581,"gmtCreate":1638446770452,"gmtModify":1638446770539,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556009150724705","idStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat!","listText":"Huat!","text":"Huat!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603478581","repostId":"2188955086","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609995148,"gmtCreate":1638229819639,"gmtModify":1638229853646,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556009150724705","idStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤔","listText":"🤔","text":"🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609995148","repostId":"2187306343","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600312841,"gmtCreate":1638066636349,"gmtModify":1638066636489,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556009150724705","idStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla is the next Tesla&nbsp;","listText":"Tesla is the next Tesla&nbsp;","text":"Tesla is the next Tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600312841","repostId":"2186323399","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877791827,"gmtCreate":1637980097798,"gmtModify":1637980166493,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556009150724705","idStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Meta!","listText":"Meta!","text":"Meta!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877791827","repostId":"1137622508","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874143902,"gmtCreate":1637748287418,"gmtModify":1637748287551,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556009150724705","idStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long 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only","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874143902","repostId":"1127565646","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872744715,"gmtCreate":1637581337706,"gmtModify":1637581337787,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556009150724705","idStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🥰","listText":"🥰","text":"🥰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872744715","repostId":"1122725459","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122725459","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637579064,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122725459?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 19:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla shares rose nearly 3% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨近3%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122725459","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla shares rose nearly 3% in premarket trading.\nTesla Chief Executive Elon Musk said in a tweet on","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;3%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70022515839c2eb64ad5f4e629463eb\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨近3%。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk said in a tweet on Monday that Model S Plaid will \"probably\" be coming to China around March.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉首席执行官Elon Musk周一在一条推文中表示，Model S Plaid“很可能”会在3月份左右来到中国。</blockquote></p><p> The Model S Plaid is priced at $169,598 (RMB 1,059,990) in China, as per Tesla China&nbsp;website, which shows the current delivery time for Model S Plaid to be at the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>根据特斯拉中国网站，Model S Plaid在中国的售价为169,598美元（1,059,990元人民币），该网站显示Model S Plaid目前的交付时间为明年年底。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla shares rose nearly 3% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨近3%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla shares rose nearly 3% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨近3%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-22 19:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;3%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70022515839c2eb64ad5f4e629463eb\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨近3%。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk said in a tweet on Monday that Model S Plaid will \"probably\" be coming to China around March.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉首席执行官Elon Musk周一在一条推文中表示，Model S Plaid“很可能”会在3月份左右来到中国。</blockquote></p><p> The Model S Plaid is priced at $169,598 (RMB 1,059,990) in China, as per Tesla China&nbsp;website, which shows the current delivery time for Model S Plaid to be at the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>根据特斯拉中国网站，Model S Plaid在中国的售价为169,598美元（1,059,990元人民币），该网站显示Model S Plaid目前的交付时间为明年年底。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122725459","content_text":"Tesla shares rose nearly 3% in premarket trading.\nTesla Chief Executive Elon Musk said in a tweet on Monday that Model S Plaid will \"probably\" be coming to China around March.\nThe Model S Plaid is priced at $169,598 (RMB 1,059,990) in China, as per Tesla China website, which shows the current delivery time for Model S Plaid to be at the end of next year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1980,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844032985,"gmtCreate":1636376166396,"gmtModify":1636376204217,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556009150724705","idStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>$1,400","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>$1,400","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$$1,400","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff88561b90838f7bd7d26197f346a692","width":"1125","height":"3735"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844032985","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842753268,"gmtCreate":1636247626617,"gmtModify":1636247626851,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556009150724705","idStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buffett still got it&nbsp;","listText":"Buffett still got it&nbsp;","text":"Buffett still got it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842753268","repostId":"2181374735","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":915,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840224211,"gmtCreate":1635651792308,"gmtModify":1635651792385,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556009150724705","idStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I’ll buy my favourite stocks on a 10% decline","listText":"I’ll buy my favourite stocks on a 10% decline","text":"I’ll buy my favourite stocks on a 10% decline","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840224211","repostId":"1130019043","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130019043","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635579123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130019043?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-30 15:32","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Top Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming<blockquote>华尔街顶级策略师预计第四季度将出现10%的快速调整</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130019043","media":"24/7 wall street","summary":"A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors a","content":"<p>A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors are well aware of the FAANG stocks, which are the massive tech monsters that rule the market. In addition, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the acronyms used to describe the constant rise in the stock markets, especially when the “buy the dip” crowd takes control after sizable selling, is FOMO, or fear of missing out.</p><p><blockquote>在金融界，大量的首字母缩略词用于各种各样的项目。大多数投资者都很清楚FAANG股票，它们是统治市场的大型科技巨头。此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>FOMO是用来描述股市持续上涨的首字母缩略词之一，尤其是当“逢低买入”人群在大量抛售后控制局面时。</blockquote></p><p> One of the very newest acronyms to hit the market speak lexicon is TINA. That stands for “there is no alternative,” which is an explanation for the constant ascent of the stock market. Basically what it means is that, due to very low yields on bonds and cash, especially with mounting inflation, owning stocks (especially those that pay solid and predictable dividends) is the only way to stay ahead of the game.</p><p><blockquote>TINA是市场词汇中最新出现的首字母缩略词之一。这代表“别无选择”，这是对股市不断上涨的解释。基本上，这意味着，由于债券和现金的收益率非常低，特别是在通货膨胀加剧的情况下，持有股票（尤其是那些支付稳定且可预测股息的股票）是保持领先地位的唯一途径。</blockquote></p><p> If any one equity strategist across Wall Street has been right on the money over the past few years, it is Stifel’s head of Institutional Equity Strategy, Barry Bannister, and he is advising clients that we could be poised to have a TINA trap sell-off. We have covered his outstanding and prescient calls for years, and generally when he talks, we listen. Those who did so at the height of the sell-off in 2020 posted some massive gains.</p><p><blockquote>如果说过去几年华尔街有哪一位股票策略师是正确的，那就是Stifel的机构股票策略主管巴里·班尼斯特(Barry Bannister)，他向客户建议，我们可能会遭遇TINA陷阱抛售。多年来，我们一直在报道他杰出而有先见之明的评级，通常当他说话时，我们会倾听。那些在2020年抛售最严重的时候这样做的人取得了一些巨大的收益。</blockquote></p><p> On March 19, 2020, just four short days before the final surge of selling and investor capitulation on March 23, Bannister and his team dropped a prediction for a relief rally that would carry the S&amp;P 500 to the 2,750 level by April 30. On March 23, the index hit an intraday low of 2,191, and it closed at 2,237.</p><p><blockquote>2020年3月19日，就在3月23日抛售和投资者投降最后激增的短短四天前，班尼斯特和他的团队放弃了对缓解性反弹的预测，该反弹将使标普500在4月30日之前升至2,750点。3月23日，该指数盘中最低触及2191点，收盘于2237点。</blockquote></p><p> We covered that incredibly bold prediction then, and while some were very skeptical of the call, Bannister made the prerequisite financial media rounds at the time giving his firm’s rationale for the prediction. In early April of 2020 as a surge of alarming news on the COVID-19 pandemic flooded the airwaves, Stifel came out and defended the call, telling clients to stand their ground. In the middle of April, as the rest of Wall Street was finally on board, Stifel raised the end-of-April target to 2,950. On April 30, in line with the laser-like call from Stifel, the S&amp;P 500 closed at 2,912 after hitting an intraday high of 2,930 and after trading to 2,950 level the day before. In late May of 2020, Stifel once again raised the price target on the S&amp;P 500 to 3,250 by August 30.</p><p><blockquote>我们当时报道了这一令人难以置信的大胆预测，虽然有些人对看涨期权非常怀疑，但班尼斯特当时在金融媒体上发表了先决条件，给出了他的公司做出这一预测的理由。2020年4月初，随着有关COVID-19大流行的令人震惊的消息充斥电视广播，Stifel站出来为看涨期权辩护，告诉客户坚持自己的立场。4月中旬，随着华尔街其他人终于加入进来，Stifel将4月底的目标上调至2,950点。4月30日，与Stifel激光般的看涨期权一致，标普500在触及2930点的盘中高点并在前一天交易至2950点后收于2912点。2020年5月下旬，Stifel再次将标普500的目标价上调至8月30日的3,250点。</blockquote></p><p> Once again, Bannister sees storm clouds on the horizon, and with good reason. Everything from stocks to gold, Treasury debt and oil and have been pushed higher. This is a result of a unique combination of the FOMO worries and the TINA mentality. In a new research report, Bannister and his team feel that a lightning-fast 10% correction could occur in the remaining months of the fourth quarter. The report noted this:</p><p><blockquote>班尼斯特又一次看到了地平线上的乌云，这是有充分理由的。从股票到黄金、国债和石油，一切都被推高。这是FOMO担忧和TINA心态独特结合的结果。在一份新的研究报告中，班尼斯特和他的团队认为，第四季度剩余几个月可能会出现闪电般的10%修正。报告指出：</blockquote></p><p>   Near-term in the fourth quarter of 2021, we note that equal-weighted cyclicals vs. defensives are very near the point at which P/E-driven S&amp;P 500 corrections occur, and we see downside equating to the S&amp;P 500 falling from 4,535 currently to ~4,000 (prior view 3,800), around a 10% correction in the fourth quarter as we see mid-cycle risks.    Our target and concerns are based on slowing global liquidity and tighter financial conditions with a gradual but unwavering Fed exit (especially after the Fed Chair is named). Sure, the Fed-inflated TINA trade “There is No Alternative” (to stocks) exists, but everyone goes into the boxing ring “with a plan” to buy-the-dip…until they get hit with a double-digit correction.    Looking out to mid-2022 through 2025, we observe that value vs. growth tracks the S&amp;P 500 divided by commodity index ratio, which soared in 2020 (favored growth stocks), fell in 2021 (favors value) and may bounce in mid-2022 (after the S&amp;P 500 corrects) favoring growth, post-dip. We also show that despite the Quantitative Easing taper the S&amp;P 500 could hit 5,200 by Jun-2022 (TINA’s last gasp?). Moreover, we see no actual bear market, which would be a 20% or more decline until fed funds is 1% (4 rate hikes), which fed funds futures indicate does not occur until 2024. </p><p><blockquote>近期在2021年第四季度，我们注意到等权重周期性股票与防御性股票非常接近市盈率驱动的标普500修正发生的点，我们认为下行相当于标普500从目前的4,535点下跌至约4,000点（之前的观点为3,800点），由于我们看到了中期周期风险，第四季度的修正约为10%。我们的目标和担忧基于全球流动性放缓和金融状况收紧，美联储将逐步但坚定不移地退出（尤其是在美联储主席任命之后）。当然，美联储膨胀的TINA交易“别无选择”（股票）是存在的，但每个人都“带着一个计划”进入拳击场，以逢低买入……直到他们受到两位数的修正。展望2022年中期至2025年，我们观察到价值与增长遵循标普500除以大宗商品指数比率，该比率在2020年飙升（青睐成长股），在2021年下跌（青睐价值股），并可能在2022年中期反弹（标普500修正后）有利于增长，下跌后。我们还表明，尽管量化宽松缩减，到2022年6月，标普500仍可能达到5,200（TINA的最后一口气？）.此外，我们没有看到真正的熊市，在联邦基金利率达到1%（加息4次）之前，熊市将下跌20%或更多，联邦基金期货表明这种情况要到2024年才会发生。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1620372341666","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming<blockquote>华尔街顶级策略师预计第四季度将出现10%的快速调整</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming<blockquote>华尔街顶级策略师预计第四季度将出现10%的快速调整</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">24/7 wall street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-30 15:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors are well aware of the FAANG stocks, which are the massive tech monsters that rule the market. In addition, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the acronyms used to describe the constant rise in the stock markets, especially when the “buy the dip” crowd takes control after sizable selling, is FOMO, or fear of missing out.</p><p><blockquote>在金融界，大量的首字母缩略词用于各种各样的项目。大多数投资者都很清楚FAANG股票，它们是统治市场的大型科技巨头。此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>FOMO是用来描述股市持续上涨的首字母缩略词之一，尤其是当“逢低买入”人群在大量抛售后控制局面时。</blockquote></p><p> One of the very newest acronyms to hit the market speak lexicon is TINA. That stands for “there is no alternative,” which is an explanation for the constant ascent of the stock market. Basically what it means is that, due to very low yields on bonds and cash, especially with mounting inflation, owning stocks (especially those that pay solid and predictable dividends) is the only way to stay ahead of the game.</p><p><blockquote>TINA是市场词汇中最新出现的首字母缩略词之一。这代表“别无选择”，这是对股市不断上涨的解释。基本上，这意味着，由于债券和现金的收益率非常低，特别是在通货膨胀加剧的情况下，持有股票（尤其是那些支付稳定且可预测股息的股票）是保持领先地位的唯一途径。</blockquote></p><p> If any one equity strategist across Wall Street has been right on the money over the past few years, it is Stifel’s head of Institutional Equity Strategy, Barry Bannister, and he is advising clients that we could be poised to have a TINA trap sell-off. We have covered his outstanding and prescient calls for years, and generally when he talks, we listen. Those who did so at the height of the sell-off in 2020 posted some massive gains.</p><p><blockquote>如果说过去几年华尔街有哪一位股票策略师是正确的，那就是Stifel的机构股票策略主管巴里·班尼斯特(Barry Bannister)，他向客户建议，我们可能会遭遇TINA陷阱抛售。多年来，我们一直在报道他杰出而有先见之明的评级，通常当他说话时，我们会倾听。那些在2020年抛售最严重的时候这样做的人取得了一些巨大的收益。</blockquote></p><p> On March 19, 2020, just four short days before the final surge of selling and investor capitulation on March 23, Bannister and his team dropped a prediction for a relief rally that would carry the S&amp;P 500 to the 2,750 level by April 30. On March 23, the index hit an intraday low of 2,191, and it closed at 2,237.</p><p><blockquote>2020年3月19日，就在3月23日抛售和投资者投降最后激增的短短四天前，班尼斯特和他的团队放弃了对缓解性反弹的预测，该反弹将使标普500在4月30日之前升至2,750点。3月23日，该指数盘中最低触及2191点，收盘于2237点。</blockquote></p><p> We covered that incredibly bold prediction then, and while some were very skeptical of the call, Bannister made the prerequisite financial media rounds at the time giving his firm’s rationale for the prediction. In early April of 2020 as a surge of alarming news on the COVID-19 pandemic flooded the airwaves, Stifel came out and defended the call, telling clients to stand their ground. In the middle of April, as the rest of Wall Street was finally on board, Stifel raised the end-of-April target to 2,950. On April 30, in line with the laser-like call from Stifel, the S&amp;P 500 closed at 2,912 after hitting an intraday high of 2,930 and after trading to 2,950 level the day before. In late May of 2020, Stifel once again raised the price target on the S&amp;P 500 to 3,250 by August 30.</p><p><blockquote>我们当时报道了这一令人难以置信的大胆预测，虽然有些人对看涨期权非常怀疑，但班尼斯特当时在金融媒体上发表了先决条件，给出了他的公司做出这一预测的理由。2020年4月初，随着有关COVID-19大流行的令人震惊的消息充斥电视广播，Stifel站出来为看涨期权辩护，告诉客户坚持自己的立场。4月中旬，随着华尔街其他人终于加入进来，Stifel将4月底的目标上调至2,950点。4月30日，与Stifel激光般的看涨期权一致，标普500在触及2930点的盘中高点并在前一天交易至2950点后收于2912点。2020年5月下旬，Stifel再次将标普500的目标价上调至8月30日的3,250点。</blockquote></p><p> Once again, Bannister sees storm clouds on the horizon, and with good reason. Everything from stocks to gold, Treasury debt and oil and have been pushed higher. This is a result of a unique combination of the FOMO worries and the TINA mentality. In a new research report, Bannister and his team feel that a lightning-fast 10% correction could occur in the remaining months of the fourth quarter. The report noted this:</p><p><blockquote>班尼斯特又一次看到了地平线上的乌云，这是有充分理由的。从股票到黄金、国债和石油，一切都被推高。这是FOMO担忧和TINA心态独特结合的结果。在一份新的研究报告中，班尼斯特和他的团队认为，第四季度剩余几个月可能会出现闪电般的10%修正。报告指出：</blockquote></p><p>   Near-term in the fourth quarter of 2021, we note that equal-weighted cyclicals vs. defensives are very near the point at which P/E-driven S&amp;P 500 corrections occur, and we see downside equating to the S&amp;P 500 falling from 4,535 currently to ~4,000 (prior view 3,800), around a 10% correction in the fourth quarter as we see mid-cycle risks.    Our target and concerns are based on slowing global liquidity and tighter financial conditions with a gradual but unwavering Fed exit (especially after the Fed Chair is named). Sure, the Fed-inflated TINA trade “There is No Alternative” (to stocks) exists, but everyone goes into the boxing ring “with a plan” to buy-the-dip…until they get hit with a double-digit correction.    Looking out to mid-2022 through 2025, we observe that value vs. growth tracks the S&amp;P 500 divided by commodity index ratio, which soared in 2020 (favored growth stocks), fell in 2021 (favors value) and may bounce in mid-2022 (after the S&amp;P 500 corrects) favoring growth, post-dip. We also show that despite the Quantitative Easing taper the S&amp;P 500 could hit 5,200 by Jun-2022 (TINA’s last gasp?). Moreover, we see no actual bear market, which would be a 20% or more decline until fed funds is 1% (4 rate hikes), which fed funds futures indicate does not occur until 2024. </p><p><blockquote>近期在2021年第四季度，我们注意到等权重周期性股票与防御性股票非常接近市盈率驱动的标普500修正发生的点，我们认为下行相当于标普500从目前的4,535点下跌至约4,000点（之前的观点为3,800点），由于我们看到了中期周期风险，第四季度的修正约为10%。我们的目标和担忧基于全球流动性放缓和金融状况收紧，美联储将逐步但坚定不移地退出（尤其是在美联储主席任命之后）。当然，美联储膨胀的TINA交易“别无选择”（股票）是存在的，但每个人都“带着一个计划”进入拳击场，以逢低买入……直到他们受到两位数的修正。展望2022年中期至2025年，我们观察到价值与增长遵循标普500除以大宗商品指数比率，该比率在2020年飙升（青睐成长股），在2021年下跌（青睐价值股），并可能在2022年中期反弹（标普500修正后）有利于增长，下跌后。我们还表明，尽管量化宽松缩减，到2022年6月，标普500仍可能达到5,200（TINA的最后一口气？）.此外，我们没有看到真正的熊市，在联邦基金利率达到1%（加息4次）之前，熊市将下跌20%或更多，联邦基金期货表明这种情况要到2024年才会发生。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://247wallst.com/investing/2021/10/29/top-wall-street-strategist-sees-a-fast-10-q4-correction-coming/\">24/7 wall street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://247wallst.com/investing/2021/10/29/top-wall-street-strategist-sees-a-fast-10-q4-correction-coming/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130019043","content_text":"A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors are well aware of the FAANG stocks, which are the massive tech monsters that rule the market. In addition, one of the acronyms used to describe the constant rise in the stock markets, especially when the “buy the dip” crowd takes control after sizable selling, is FOMO, or fear of missing out.\nOne of the very newest acronyms to hit the market speak lexicon is TINA. That stands for “there is no alternative,” which is an explanation for the constant ascent of the stock market. Basically what it means is that, due to very low yields on bonds and cash, especially with mounting inflation, owning stocks (especially those that pay solid and predictable dividends) is the only way to stay ahead of the game.\nIf any one equity strategist across Wall Street has been right on the money over the past few years, it is Stifel’s head of Institutional Equity Strategy, Barry Bannister, and he is advising clients that we could be poised to have a TINA trap sell-off. We have covered his outstanding and prescient calls for years, and generally when he talks, we listen. Those who did so at the height of the sell-off in 2020 posted some massive gains.\nOn March 19, 2020, just four short days before the final surge of selling and investor capitulation on March 23, Bannister and his team dropped a prediction for a relief rally that would carry the S&P 500 to the 2,750 level by April 30. On March 23, the index hit an intraday low of 2,191, and it closed at 2,237.\nWe covered that incredibly bold prediction then, and while some were very skeptical of the call, Bannister made the prerequisite financial media rounds at the time giving his firm’s rationale for the prediction. In early April of 2020 as a surge of alarming news on the COVID-19 pandemic flooded the airwaves, Stifel came out and defended the call, telling clients to stand their ground. In the middle of April, as the rest of Wall Street was finally on board, Stifel raised the end-of-April target to 2,950. On April 30, in line with the laser-like call from Stifel, the S&P 500 closed at 2,912 after hitting an intraday high of 2,930 and after trading to 2,950 level the day before. In late May of 2020, Stifel once again raised the price target on the S&P 500 to 3,250 by August 30.\nOnce again, Bannister sees storm clouds on the horizon, and with good reason. Everything from stocks to gold, Treasury debt and oil and have been pushed higher. This is a result of a unique combination of the FOMO worries and the TINA mentality. In a new research report, Bannister and his team feel that a lightning-fast 10% correction could occur in the remaining months of the fourth quarter. The report noted this:\n\n Near-term in the fourth quarter of 2021, we note that equal-weighted cyclicals vs. defensives are very near the point at which P/E-driven S&P 500 corrections occur, and we see downside equating to the S&P 500 falling from 4,535 currently to ~4,000 (prior view 3,800), around a 10% correction in the fourth quarter as we see mid-cycle risks.\n\n\n Our target and concerns are based on slowing global liquidity and tighter financial conditions with a gradual but unwavering Fed exit (especially after the Fed Chair is named). Sure, the Fed-inflated TINA trade “There is No Alternative” (to stocks) exists, but everyone goes into the boxing ring “with a plan” to buy-the-dip…until they get hit with a double-digit correction.\n\n\n Looking out to mid-2022 through 2025, we observe that value vs. growth tracks the S&P 500 divided by commodity index ratio, which soared in 2020 (favored growth stocks), fell in 2021 (favors value) and may bounce in mid-2022 (after the S&P 500 corrects) favoring growth, post-dip. We also show that despite the Quantitative Easing taper the S&P 500 could hit 5,200 by Jun-2022 (TINA’s last gasp?). Moreover, we see no actual bear market, which would be a 20% or more decline until fed funds is 1% (4 rate hikes), which fed funds futures indicate does not occur until 2024.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853472233,"gmtCreate":1634832661530,"gmtModify":1634832661795,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556009150724705","idStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"#yolo #tesla #huat","listText":"#yolo #tesla #huat","text":"#yolo #tesla #huat","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da72c9d81a1feb719eef59d9688aae44","width":"1242","height":"2688"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853472233","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":187492255,"gmtCreate":1623761208777,"gmtModify":1634028818406,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556009150724705","idStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"BTC?","listText":"BTC?","text":"BTC?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187492255","repostId":"2143735752","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186965425,"gmtCreate":1623469988667,"gmtModify":1634032719406,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556009150724705","idStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😬","listText":"😬","text":"😬","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186965425","repostId":"1102961449","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117493029,"gmtCreate":1623155536661,"gmtModify":1634036389763,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556009150724705","idStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla bull!","listText":"Tesla bull!","text":"Tesla bull!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117493029","repostId":"2141585261","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112645330,"gmtCreate":1622869090720,"gmtModify":1634097177377,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556009150724705","idStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤔","listText":"🤔","text":"🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112645330","repostId":"1158897173","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116521387,"gmtCreate":1622812956749,"gmtModify":1634097775020,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556009150724705","idStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla better?","listText":"Tesla better?","text":"Tesla better?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116521387","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122373606?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是一个商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 15:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是一个商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118323027,"gmtCreate":1622719976569,"gmtModify":1634098808031,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556009150724705","idStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Don’t write off tesla","listText":"Don’t write off tesla","text":"Don’t write off tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118323027","repostId":"1139859065","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":842753268,"gmtCreate":1636247626617,"gmtModify":1636247626851,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556009150724705","authorIdStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buffett still got it&nbsp;","listText":"Buffett still got it&nbsp;","text":"Buffett still got it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842753268","repostId":"2181374735","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":915,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":196066067,"gmtCreate":1621000209559,"gmtModify":1634194662708,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556009150724705","authorIdStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"HODL!","listText":"HODL!","text":"HODL!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196066067","repostId":"2135710626","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118323027,"gmtCreate":1622719976569,"gmtModify":1634098808031,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556009150724705","authorIdStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Don’t write off tesla","listText":"Don’t write off tesla","text":"Don’t write off tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118323027","repostId":"1139859065","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136073210,"gmtCreate":1621988111730,"gmtModify":1634184998675,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556009150724705","authorIdStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon!","listText":"To the moon!","text":"To the moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136073210","repostId":"1175983066","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175983066","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1621987151,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175983066?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-26 07:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop Surges And Options Traders Plan To Bank On A Moon Shot<blockquote>游戏驿站飙升，期权交易员计划寄希望于登月</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175983066","media":"Benzinga","summary":"GameStop Corporation surged over 20% on Tuesday despite the general markets trading slightly lower. Since the epic short squeeze that took place in January, there has often been an inverse correlation between GameStop and theSPDR S&P 500 ETF.The company is set to print its first-quarter 2021 earnings results after the close on June 8. After reporting itsfourth-quarter 2020earnings, GameStop’s stock plummeted almost 35% in a single day. GameStop reported sales of $2.12 billion, missing the analys","content":"<p><b>GameStop Corporation</b>(NYSE:GME) surged over 20% on Tuesday despite the general markets trading slightly lower. Since the epic short squeeze that took place in January, there has often been an inverse correlation between GameStop and the<b>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</b>(NYSE:SPY).</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站公司</b>尽管整体市场小幅走低，但（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GME）周二仍飙升超过20%。自一月份发生史诗般的空头挤压以来，游戏驿站和<b>SPDR标普500 ETF</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF）。</blockquote></p><p> The company is set to print its first-quarter 2021 earnings results after the close on June 8. After reporting itsfourth-quarter 2020earnings, GameStop’s stock plummeted almost 35% in a single day. GameStop reported sales of $2.12 billion, missing the analyst consensus estimate of $2.21 billion and earnings per share of $1.34 per share, which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $1.33.</p><p><blockquote>该公司定于6月8日收盘后公布2021年第一季度盈利结果。公布2020年第四季度财报后，游戏驿站股价单日暴跌近35%。游戏驿站公布的销售额为21.2亿美元，低于分析师普遍预期的22.1亿美元，每股收益为1.34美元，低于分析师普遍预期的1.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> The morning before postings its last quarterly earnings, GameStopannouncedits Chief Customer Officer Frank Hamlin would be leaving the company, which may have contributed to the sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>在发布最后一个季度财报的前一天早上，GameStop宣布首席客户官弗兰克·哈姆林(Frank Hamlin)将离开公司，这可能是导致抛售的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Options traders may believe first-quarter earnings will blow investors away or that a big announcement is imminent and bet&nbsp;$367,915 that GameStop will make a 122% parabolic rise toward $800 before July –nearly double GameStop's previous all-time high of $483.</p><p><blockquote>期权交易员可能认为第一季度的收益会让投资者大吃一惊，或者即将发布重大公告，并以367,915美元押注游戏驿站将在7月之前抛物线上涨122%至800美元，几乎是游戏驿站之前483美元的历史高点的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The GameStop Option Trades:</b>&nbsp;Below is a look at the notable options alerts, courtesy ofBenzinga Pro:</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站期权交易：</b>以下是由Benzinga Pro提供的值得注意的选项警报：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>At 9:47 a.m., Tuesday a trader executed a call sweep, near the ask, of 269 GameStop options with a strike price of $800 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $98,185 bullish bet for which the trader paid $3.65 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:31 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep, near the ask, of 233 GameStop options with a strike price of $800 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $86,210 bullish bet for which the trader paid $3.70 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:35 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep, near the ask, of 290 GameStop options with a strike price of $800 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $107,300 bullish bet for which the trader paid $3.70 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 11:49 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep, near the ask, of 206 GameStop options with a strike price of $800 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $76,220 bullish bet for which the trader paid $3.70 per option contract.</li> </ul> <b>Why It’s Important:</b>&nbsp;When a sweep order occurs, it indicates the trader wanted to get into a position quickly and is anticipating an imminent large move in stock price. A sweeper pays market price for the call option instead of placing a bid, which sweeps the order book of multiple exchanges to fill the order immediately.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周二上午9点47分，一名交易员在要价附近执行了269份游戏驿站期权的看涨期权横扫，执行价格为800美元，将于7月16日到期。该交易代表了98,185美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了3.65美元。</li><li>上午10点31分，一名交易员在要价附近执行了233份游戏驿站期权的看涨期权清仓，执行价格为800美元，将于7月16日到期。该交易代表了86,210美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了3.70美元。</li><li>上午10点35分，一名交易员在要价附近执行了290份游戏驿站期权的看涨期权清仓，执行价格为800美元，将于7月16日到期。该交易代表了107,300美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了3.70美元。</li><li>上午11点49分，一名交易员在要价附近执行了206份游戏驿站期权的看涨期权清仓，执行价格为800美元，将于7月16日到期。该交易代表了76,220美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了3.70美元。</li></ul><b>为什么它很重要：</b>当出现扫单时，表明交易者希望快速建仓，并预计股价即将大幅波动。清扫者为看涨期权期权支付市场价格，而不是出价，清扫多个交易所的订单簿以立即履行订单。</blockquote></p><p> These types of call option orders are usually made by institutions, and retail investors can find watching for sweepers useful because it indicates “smart money” has entered into a position.</p><p><blockquote>这些类型的看涨期权期权订单通常由机构发出，散户投资者会发现观察清道夫很有用，因为这表明“聪明的资金”已经建仓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GME Price Action:</b>&nbsp;Shares of GameStop were trading up 16% to $208.87 at publication time.</p><p><blockquote><b>GME价格走势：</b>截至发稿时，游戏驿站股价上涨16%，至208.87美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop Surges And Options Traders Plan To Bank On A Moon Shot<blockquote>游戏驿站飙升，期权交易员计划寄希望于登月</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop Surges And Options Traders Plan To Bank On A Moon Shot<blockquote>游戏驿站飙升，期权交易员计划寄希望于登月</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-26 07:59</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>GameStop Corporation</b>(NYSE:GME) surged over 20% on Tuesday despite the general markets trading slightly lower. Since the epic short squeeze that took place in January, there has often been an inverse correlation between GameStop and the<b>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</b>(NYSE:SPY).</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站公司</b>尽管整体市场小幅走低，但（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GME）周二仍飙升超过20%。自一月份发生史诗般的空头挤压以来，游戏驿站和<b>SPDR标普500 ETF</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF）。</blockquote></p><p> The company is set to print its first-quarter 2021 earnings results after the close on June 8. After reporting itsfourth-quarter 2020earnings, GameStop’s stock plummeted almost 35% in a single day. GameStop reported sales of $2.12 billion, missing the analyst consensus estimate of $2.21 billion and earnings per share of $1.34 per share, which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $1.33.</p><p><blockquote>该公司定于6月8日收盘后公布2021年第一季度盈利结果。公布2020年第四季度财报后，游戏驿站股价单日暴跌近35%。游戏驿站公布的销售额为21.2亿美元，低于分析师普遍预期的22.1亿美元，每股收益为1.34美元，低于分析师普遍预期的1.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> The morning before postings its last quarterly earnings, GameStopannouncedits Chief Customer Officer Frank Hamlin would be leaving the company, which may have contributed to the sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>在发布最后一个季度财报的前一天早上，GameStop宣布首席客户官弗兰克·哈姆林(Frank Hamlin)将离开公司，这可能是导致抛售的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Options traders may believe first-quarter earnings will blow investors away or that a big announcement is imminent and bet&nbsp;$367,915 that GameStop will make a 122% parabolic rise toward $800 before July –nearly double GameStop's previous all-time high of $483.</p><p><blockquote>期权交易员可能认为第一季度的收益会让投资者大吃一惊，或者即将发布重大公告，并以367,915美元押注游戏驿站将在7月之前抛物线上涨122%至800美元，几乎是游戏驿站之前483美元的历史高点的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The GameStop Option Trades:</b>&nbsp;Below is a look at the notable options alerts, courtesy ofBenzinga Pro:</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站期权交易：</b>以下是由Benzinga Pro提供的值得注意的选项警报：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>At 9:47 a.m., Tuesday a trader executed a call sweep, near the ask, of 269 GameStop options with a strike price of $800 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $98,185 bullish bet for which the trader paid $3.65 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:31 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep, near the ask, of 233 GameStop options with a strike price of $800 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $86,210 bullish bet for which the trader paid $3.70 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:35 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep, near the ask, of 290 GameStop options with a strike price of $800 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $107,300 bullish bet for which the trader paid $3.70 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 11:49 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep, near the ask, of 206 GameStop options with a strike price of $800 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $76,220 bullish bet for which the trader paid $3.70 per option contract.</li> </ul> <b>Why It’s Important:</b>&nbsp;When a sweep order occurs, it indicates the trader wanted to get into a position quickly and is anticipating an imminent large move in stock price. A sweeper pays market price for the call option instead of placing a bid, which sweeps the order book of multiple exchanges to fill the order immediately.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周二上午9点47分，一名交易员在要价附近执行了269份游戏驿站期权的看涨期权横扫，执行价格为800美元，将于7月16日到期。该交易代表了98,185美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了3.65美元。</li><li>上午10点31分，一名交易员在要价附近执行了233份游戏驿站期权的看涨期权清仓，执行价格为800美元，将于7月16日到期。该交易代表了86,210美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了3.70美元。</li><li>上午10点35分，一名交易员在要价附近执行了290份游戏驿站期权的看涨期权清仓，执行价格为800美元，将于7月16日到期。该交易代表了107,300美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了3.70美元。</li><li>上午11点49分，一名交易员在要价附近执行了206份游戏驿站期权的看涨期权清仓，执行价格为800美元，将于7月16日到期。该交易代表了76,220美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了3.70美元。</li></ul><b>为什么它很重要：</b>当出现扫单时，表明交易者希望快速建仓，并预计股价即将大幅波动。清扫者为看涨期权期权支付市场价格，而不是出价，清扫多个交易所的订单簿以立即履行订单。</blockquote></p><p> These types of call option orders are usually made by institutions, and retail investors can find watching for sweepers useful because it indicates “smart money” has entered into a position.</p><p><blockquote>这些类型的看涨期权期权订单通常由机构发出，散户投资者会发现观察清道夫很有用，因为这表明“聪明的资金”已经建仓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GME Price Action:</b>&nbsp;Shares of GameStop were trading up 16% to $208.87 at publication time.</p><p><blockquote><b>GME价格走势：</b>截至发稿时，游戏驿站股价上涨16%，至208.87美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175983066","content_text":"GameStop Corporation(NYSE:GME) surged over 20% on Tuesday despite the general markets trading slightly lower. Since the epic short squeeze that took place in January, there has often been an inverse correlation between GameStop and theSPDR S&P 500 ETF(NYSE:SPY).\nThe company is set to print its first-quarter 2021 earnings results after the close on June 8. After reporting itsfourth-quarter 2020earnings, GameStop’s stock plummeted almost 35% in a single day. GameStop reported sales of $2.12 billion, missing the analyst consensus estimate of $2.21 billion and earnings per share of $1.34 per share, which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $1.33.\nThe morning before postings its last quarterly earnings, GameStopannouncedits Chief Customer Officer Frank Hamlin would be leaving the company, which may have contributed to the sell-off.\nOptions traders may believe first-quarter earnings will blow investors away or that a big announcement is imminent and bet $367,915 that GameStop will make a 122% parabolic rise toward $800 before July –nearly double GameStop's previous all-time high of $483.\nThe GameStop Option Trades: Below is a look at the notable options alerts, courtesy ofBenzinga Pro:\n\nAt 9:47 a.m., Tuesday a trader executed a call sweep, near the ask, of 269 GameStop options with a strike price of $800 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $98,185 bullish bet for which the trader paid $3.65 per option contract.\nAt 10:31 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep, near the ask, of 233 GameStop options with a strike price of $800 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $86,210 bullish bet for which the trader paid $3.70 per option contract.\nAt 10:35 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep, near the ask, of 290 GameStop options with a strike price of $800 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $107,300 bullish bet for which the trader paid $3.70 per option contract.\nAt 11:49 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep, near the ask, of 206 GameStop options with a strike price of $800 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $76,220 bullish bet for which the trader paid $3.70 per option contract.\n\nWhy It’s Important: When a sweep order occurs, it indicates the trader wanted to get into a position quickly and is anticipating an imminent large move in stock price. A sweeper pays market price for the call option instead of placing a bid, which sweeps the order book of multiple exchanges to fill the order immediately.\nThese types of call option orders are usually made by institutions, and retail investors can find watching for sweepers useful because it indicates “smart money” has entered into a position.\nGME Price Action: Shares of GameStop were trading up 16% to $208.87 at publication time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105663288,"gmtCreate":1620298889344,"gmtModify":1634206287284,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556009150724705","authorIdStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla bull run incoming","listText":"Tesla bull run incoming","text":"Tesla bull run incoming","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105663288","repostId":"2133578858","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":767,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364535595,"gmtCreate":1614863455017,"gmtModify":1703482136307,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556009150724705","authorIdStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stay strong on TSLA","listText":"Stay strong on TSLA","text":"Stay strong on TSLA","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364535595","repostId":"1121663617","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121663617","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614851841,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121663617?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-04 17:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Stocks To Watch For March 4, 2021<blockquote>2021年3月4日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121663617","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Wall Street expects Kroger Co KRto report quarterly earnings at $0.69 per share on revenue of $30.86","content":"<p><div> Wall Street expects Kroger Co KRto report quarterly earnings at $0.69 per share on revenue of $30.86 billion before the opening bell. Kroger shares fell 0.9% to $32.96 in after-hours trading.Marvell ...</p><p><blockquote><div>华尔街预计克罗格公司KRto开盘前公布季度收益为每股0.69美元，营收为308.6亿美元。克罗格股价在盘后交易中下跌0.9%，至32.96美元。Marvell……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/03/20002528/5-stocks-to-watch-for-march-4-2021\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/03/20002528/5-stocks-to-watch-for-march-4-2021\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For March 4, 2021<blockquote>2021年3月4日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For March 4, 2021<blockquote>2021年3月4日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-04 17:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Wall Street expects Kroger Co KRto report quarterly earnings at $0.69 per share on revenue of $30.86 billion before the opening bell. Kroger shares fell 0.9% to $32.96 in after-hours trading.Marvell ...</p><p><blockquote><div>华尔街预计克罗格公司KRto开盘前公布季度收益为每股0.69美元，营收为308.6亿美元。克罗格股价在盘后交易中下跌0.9%，至32.96美元。Marvell……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/03/20002528/5-stocks-to-watch-for-march-4-2021\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/03/20002528/5-stocks-to-watch-for-march-4-2021\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/03/20002528/5-stocks-to-watch-for-march-4-2021\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/03/20002528/5-stocks-to-watch-for-march-4-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121663617","content_text":"Wall Street expects Kroger Co KRto report quarterly earnings at $0.69 per share on revenue of $30.86 billion before the opening bell. Kroger shares fell 0.9% to $32.96 in after-hours trading.Marvell Technology Group Ltd. MRVLreported in-line earnings for its fourth quarter, while sales exceeded estimates. Marvell Technology shares dropped 6% to $42.81 in the after-hours trading session.Analysts are expecting Broadcom Inc AVGO to have earned $6.55 per share on revenue of $6.61 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets close. Broadcom shares fell 0.1% to $462.89 in after-hours trading.Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co HPE reported better-than-expected results for its first quarter and raised its FY21 earnings forecast. Hewlett Packard Enterprise shares dropped 0.5% to $14.49 in the after-hours trading session.Analysts expect Costco Wholesale Corporation COST to post quarterly earnings at $2.45 per share on revenue of $43.78 billion. Costco shares slipped 0.1% to $323.75 in after-hours trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":608549929,"gmtCreate":1638765040021,"gmtModify":1638765040145,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556009150724705","authorIdStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ho Ho Ho","listText":"Ho Ho Ho","text":"Ho Ho Ho","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608549929","repostId":"2188576930","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2188576930","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1638774986,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2188576930?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 15:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Insider buying says a Santa Claus rally is on the way -- here are 10 stocks they favor<blockquote>内部买盘称圣诞老人反弹即将到来——以下是他们青睐的10只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188576930","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Corporate insiders stepped up buying considerably when the stock market weakened. Hang on to your stock-market exposure and add more if you can.The twin fears spooking investors – the omicron COVID strain and inflation – are overdone. Stocks should proceed higher as more people figure this out, leading to a Santa Claus rally later this month.There are lots of stock bargains because there’s been so much damage, even if narrower indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have hu","content":"<p>Corporate insiders stepped up buying considerably when the stock market weakened</p><p><blockquote>当股市疲软时，公司内部人士大幅买入</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cb7144fa943d84b96ae88faa9be5533\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MarketWatch composite/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MarketWatch综合/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Hang on to your stock-market exposure and add more if you can.</p><p><blockquote>坚持你的股市敞口，如果可以的话增加更多。</blockquote></p><p> The twin fears spooking investors – the omicron COVID strain and inflation – are overdone. Stocks should proceed higher as more people figure this out, leading to a Santa Claus rally later this month.</p><p><blockquote>令投资者感到恐慌的两个担忧——奥密克戎新冠疫情压力和通货膨胀——都有些过头了。随着越来越多的人意识到这一点，股市应该会走高，从而导致本月晚些时候的圣诞老人反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Corporate insiders confirm this view. They’ve stepped up buying considerably in the market weakness. What’s more they’re buying all the right groups – travel, retail, energy and materials, among others. These are the cyclical areas that’ll do the best as worries about growth recede, and insiders know it. I don’t see any hunkering down in defensive names like consumer staples.</p><p><blockquote>企业内部人士印证了这一观点。他们在市场疲软时大幅增加了购买。更重要的是，他们正在购买所有合适的群体——旅游、零售、能源和材料等。随着对增长的担忧消退，这些周期性领域将表现最好，内部人士也知道这一点。我没有看到任何像消费必需品这样的防御性名称。</blockquote></p><p> There are lots of stock bargains because there’s been so much damage, even if narrower indexes like the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;have hung tough, propped up by a few large names. The Russell 2000 small-cap index&nbsp;is down more than 10%, and most stocks in the more widely followed indexes like the S&amp;P 500 have also fallen more than 10% at some point recently.</p><p><blockquote>尽管标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数等较窄的指数在一些大公司的支撑下表现坚挺，但仍有很多股票便宜货，因为受到了如此大的损害。Russell 2000小盘股指数下跌超过10%，标普500等更广泛关注的指数中的大多数股票最近也在某个时候下跌超过10%。</blockquote></p><p> I’ll single out 10 names favored by insiders, including several I’ve recently suggested in my stock advisory letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in my bio, below). But first, a quick look at why insiders, like me, don’t seem to be too worried about the twin fears.</p><p><blockquote>我将挑出10个受到内部人士青睐的名字，其中包括我最近在股票咨询信《重温股票》中建议的几个名字（链接在下面我的简历中）。但首先，让我们快速了解一下为什么像我这样的内部人士似乎不太担心这对双胞胎的恐惧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Omicron</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奥密克戎</b></blockquote></p><p> The concern here is that this new variant is far more contagious and deadly than the delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>这里令人担忧的是，这种新变种比德尔塔变异毒株病毒更具传染性和致命性。</blockquote></p><p> The first fear may be true. Case counts are rising sharply in South Africa, which suggests it is more contagious. As for lethality, though, omicron seems to be mild so far. There is still a lot to learn, but this is the message we consistently get from doctors and health authorities with lots of experience with COVID.</p><p><blockquote>第一种担心可能是真的。南非的病例数急剧上升，这表明它的传染性更强。不过，就杀伤力而言，奥密克戎迄今为止似乎很温和。仍有很多东西需要学习，但这是我们不断从对COVID有丰富经验的医生和卫生当局那里得到的信息。</blockquote></p><p> “What we are seeing clinically in South Africa, and remember I’m at the epicenter of this where I’m practicing, is extremely mild for us,” says Angelique Coetzee, a doctor in South Africa who has three decades of experience. “These are mild cases. We haven’t admitted anyone. I’ve spoken to other colleagues of mine and they give the same picture.”</p><p><blockquote>拥有三十年经验的南非医生安吉丽克·库切(Angelique Coetzee)表示：“我们在南非临床上看到的情况，请记住，我正处于我执业的中心，对我们来说极其温和。”“这些都是轻微病例。我们没有收治任何人。我和我的其他同事谈过，他们也给出了同样的情况。”</blockquote></p><p> Hospitalizations in South Africa “are ticking up but not incredibly fast,” agrees William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-director of its Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. U.S. health authorities confirm omicron may not be especially lethal. Both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Minnesota Department of Health describe the first cases found in the U.S. so far as mild.</p><p><blockquote>哈佛大学流行病学副教授兼传染病动力学中心联席主任威廉·哈纳奇（William Hanage）表示同意，南非的住院人数“正在增加，但速度并不是令人难以置信的快”。美国卫生当局证实，奥密克戎病毒可能不会特别致命。美国疾病控制与预防中心和明尼苏达州卫生部都将迄今为止在美国发现的首例病例描述为轻度病例。</blockquote></p><p> if the omicron variant is mild, this wouldn’t be a surprise. Respiratory viruses naturally evolve to be <i>more contagious and less lethal</i>, notes Professor Karl Lauterbach, an epidemiologist in Germany. This makes sense from the point of view of a virus. A virus has a better chance if it spreads quickly and does not kill its host.</p><p><blockquote>如果奥密克戎变种是温和的，这并不奇怪。呼吸道病毒自然进化为<i>传染性更强，致命性更低</i>德国流行病学家卡尔·劳特巴赫教授指出。从病毒的角度来看，这是有道理的。如果病毒传播迅速并且不会杀死宿主，它的机会就会更大。</blockquote></p><p> On vaccine “escape” or evasion, former Food and Drug Administration chief Scott Gottlieb thinks the current vaccines will work against omicron by suppressing symptoms enough to lower hospitalizations. “There’s a high degree of confidence that efficacy is going to be preserved,” he says. “Will it be the same 95%? Perhaps not, but you will still have a meaningful amount of efficacy.”</p><p><blockquote>关于疫苗“逃逸”或逃避，前美国食品和药物管理局局长Scott Gottlieb认为，目前的疫苗将通过抑制症状足以降低住院率来对抗奥密克戎病毒。“人们非常有信心保持功效，”他说。“会是同样的95%吗？也许不会，但你仍然会有有意义的功效。”</blockquote></p><p> He notes the mRNA vaccine companies can tweak their vaccines to make them even better, in a matter of months. Vaccine companies like Pfizer&nbsp;confirm boosters will work, and that they’ll be able to customize them for the omicron variant. “In our view and reiterated by Pfizer, the current booster will likely be effective,” says Jefferies biotech analyst Michael Yee. “A new version for 2022 can be even better.”</p><p><blockquote>他指出，mRNA疫苗公司可以在几个月内调整他们的疫苗，使其变得更好。辉瑞等疫苗公司确认加强剂会起作用，并且他们将能够为奥密克戎变种定制加强剂。杰富瑞生物技术分析师Michael Yee表示：“我们认为，辉瑞也重申，目前的增强剂可能会有效。”“2022年的新版本可能会更好。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀</b></blockquote></p><p> There’s are lots of reasons to think inflation fears are overblown. The worry here is that the Federal Reserve is “behind the curve” so it will have to hike rates aggressively, which might kill growth and the bull market. This isn’t going to happen. One sign is that commodity prices and shipping costs have been falling sharply. These are often the leading edge of inflation.</p><p><blockquote>有很多理由认为通胀担忧被夸大了。这里的担忧是美联储“落后于形势”，因此它将不得不大幅加息，这可能会扼杀增长和牛市。这是不会发生的。一个迹象是大宗商品价格和运输成本一直在大幅下降。这些往往是通货膨胀的前沿。</blockquote></p><p> Next, take a moment to drill down on the current inflation spike. To do so, consider the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s breakdown of the parts of the Core CPI Index into “flexible” categories (quick to change) and “sticky” categories (slow to change). Right now, the flexible components account for most of the headline inflation.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，花点时间深入了解当前的通胀飙升。为此，请考虑亚特兰大联储将核心CPI指数的各个部分分为“灵活”类别（变化快）和“粘性”类别（变化慢）。目前，灵活成分占总体通胀的大部分。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> These prices are up around 15% in the past year, compared to 3% gains for the “sticky” prices, points out economist Jim Paulsen, the market strategist at Leuthold Group. “While troublesome, the Core CPI Index’s overall rise is due almost entirely to prices that traditionally move around a lot, both up and down,” he says. This suggests the headline inflation rate can reverse and move down quickly from here.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group市场策略师、经济学家吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)指出，这些价格在过去一年中上涨了约15%，而“粘性”价格的涨幅为3%。“虽然很麻烦，但核心CPI指数的整体上涨几乎完全是由于传统上价格波动较大，无论是上下波动，”他表示。这表明总体通胀率可能会逆转并从这里迅速下降。</blockquote></p><p> That’s what a lot of analysts and bond market investors think. Analysts expect inflation of less than 2% over the next two to 10 years, according to projections tracked by the Atlanta Fed. Meanwhile, the 10-year inflation rate projected by investors in the bond market stands at around 2.6%, notes Paulsen. Not terribly alarming.</p><p><blockquote>这是很多分析师和债市投资者的想法。根据亚特兰大联储追踪的预测，分析师预计未来两到十年通胀率将低于2%。保尔森指出，与此同时，债券市场投资者预计的10年期通胀率约为2.6%。不是很令人担忧。</blockquote></p><p> These projections make sense to me, because companies say their supply chain issues will be fixed by around the middle of next year. Shortages linked to supply chain issues have been a main contributor to price spikes.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测对我来说是有意义的，因为公司表示他们的供应链问题将在明年年中左右得到解决。与供应链问题相关的短缺是价格飙升的主要原因。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, mobility tracking data from Alphabet,Apple,OpenTable and the Transportation Security Administration show that people in the U.S. have significantly curtailed how much they go out in public. On Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, TSA check-ins were 79%-81% of 2019 levels, compared to 85% to 90% in the prior 10 days, by my calculations. If this reduced mobility slows the economy a little, it will ease fears about inflation and the need for the Fed taking away the punch bowl too quickly.</p><p><blockquote>最后，来自Alphabet、苹果、OpenTable和运输安全管理局的移动跟踪数据显示，美国人显着减少了在公共场合外出的次数。根据我的计算，11月30日和12月1日，美国运输安全管理局的登记人数为2019年水平的79%-81%，而前10天为85%至90%。如果流动性的减少稍微减缓了经济，这将缓解人们对通胀的担忧，以及美联储过快拿走潘趣酒碗的必要性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Insiders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内部人士</b></blockquote></p><p> In a mini-replay of March-October of 2020 when the COVID crisis first raged, insiders have once again stepped up to buy market weakness caused by fresh COVID fears. True, insiders are not epidemiologists. But they are not dummies either. They have good networks of contacts and they see the tone of their businesses every day. Their buying is focused on all the right areas like cyclicals, retail, energy and industrials, not defensive names.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年3月至10月COVID危机首次肆虐时的迷你回放中，内部人士再次站出来买入由新的COVID担忧造成的市场疲软。诚然，内部人士不是流行病学家。但他们也不是傻瓜。他们有良好的人脉网络，他们每天都能看到自己业务的基调。他们的购买集中在所有正确的领域，如周期性股票、零售、能源和工业，而不是防御性股票。</blockquote></p><p> Companies where insiders have been buying meaningful amounts over the past several days include outdoor and retail names Six Flags Entertainment,American Eagle Outfitters,Nordstrom&nbsp;and American Woodmark; travel names like Delta Air Lines&nbsp;and Playa Hotels &amp; Resorts ; energy names like Exxon Mobil&nbsp;and EOG Resources; and materials names like Cleveland-Cliffs&nbsp;and Orion Engineered Carbons.</p><p><blockquote>过去几天，内部人士大量买入的公司包括户外和零售品牌六旗娱乐公司、American Eagle Outfitters、Nordstrom和American Woodmark；达美航空和普拉亚酒店及度假村等旅游公司；埃克森美孚和EOG资源等能源公司；以及克利夫兰悬崖和猎户座工程碳等材料名称。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ho, ho, ho!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>嗬，嗬，嗬！</b></blockquote></p><p> Their buying confirms work by seasonality and trading expert Larry Williams who tells me his work concludes we can expect a “Santa Claus” rally once again, later this month. We’ll see, but since the two main fears are false fears that will till take a little time to more fully recede, this makes sense to me.</p><p><blockquote>他们的购买证实了季节性和交易专家拉里·威廉姆斯的工作，他告诉我，他的工作得出的结论是，我们可以期待本月晚些时候再次出现“圣诞老人”反弹。我们会看到的，但由于两个主要的恐惧是虚假的恐惧，需要一点时间才能完全消退，这对我来说是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Insider buying says a Santa Claus rally is on the way -- here are 10 stocks they favor<blockquote>内部买盘称圣诞老人反弹即将到来——以下是他们青睐的10只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInsider buying says a Santa Claus rally is on the way -- here are 10 stocks they favor<blockquote>内部买盘称圣诞老人反弹即将到来——以下是他们青睐的10只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-06 15:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Corporate insiders stepped up buying considerably when the stock market weakened</p><p><blockquote>当股市疲软时，公司内部人士大幅买入</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cb7144fa943d84b96ae88faa9be5533\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MarketWatch composite/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MarketWatch综合/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Hang on to your stock-market exposure and add more if you can.</p><p><blockquote>坚持你的股市敞口，如果可以的话增加更多。</blockquote></p><p> The twin fears spooking investors – the omicron COVID strain and inflation – are overdone. Stocks should proceed higher as more people figure this out, leading to a Santa Claus rally later this month.</p><p><blockquote>令投资者感到恐慌的两个担忧——奥密克戎新冠疫情压力和通货膨胀——都有些过头了。随着越来越多的人意识到这一点，股市应该会走高，从而导致本月晚些时候的圣诞老人反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Corporate insiders confirm this view. They’ve stepped up buying considerably in the market weakness. What’s more they’re buying all the right groups – travel, retail, energy and materials, among others. These are the cyclical areas that’ll do the best as worries about growth recede, and insiders know it. I don’t see any hunkering down in defensive names like consumer staples.</p><p><blockquote>企业内部人士印证了这一观点。他们在市场疲软时大幅增加了购买。更重要的是，他们正在购买所有合适的群体——旅游、零售、能源和材料等。随着对增长的担忧消退，这些周期性领域将表现最好，内部人士也知道这一点。我没有看到任何像消费必需品这样的防御性名称。</blockquote></p><p> There are lots of stock bargains because there’s been so much damage, even if narrower indexes like the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;have hung tough, propped up by a few large names. The Russell 2000 small-cap index&nbsp;is down more than 10%, and most stocks in the more widely followed indexes like the S&amp;P 500 have also fallen more than 10% at some point recently.</p><p><blockquote>尽管标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数等较窄的指数在一些大公司的支撑下表现坚挺，但仍有很多股票便宜货，因为受到了如此大的损害。Russell 2000小盘股指数下跌超过10%，标普500等更广泛关注的指数中的大多数股票最近也在某个时候下跌超过10%。</blockquote></p><p> I’ll single out 10 names favored by insiders, including several I’ve recently suggested in my stock advisory letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in my bio, below). But first, a quick look at why insiders, like me, don’t seem to be too worried about the twin fears.</p><p><blockquote>我将挑出10个受到内部人士青睐的名字，其中包括我最近在股票咨询信《重温股票》中建议的几个名字（链接在下面我的简历中）。但首先，让我们快速了解一下为什么像我这样的内部人士似乎不太担心这对双胞胎的恐惧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Omicron</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奥密克戎</b></blockquote></p><p> The concern here is that this new variant is far more contagious and deadly than the delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>这里令人担忧的是，这种新变种比德尔塔变异毒株病毒更具传染性和致命性。</blockquote></p><p> The first fear may be true. Case counts are rising sharply in South Africa, which suggests it is more contagious. As for lethality, though, omicron seems to be mild so far. There is still a lot to learn, but this is the message we consistently get from doctors and health authorities with lots of experience with COVID.</p><p><blockquote>第一种担心可能是真的。南非的病例数急剧上升，这表明它的传染性更强。不过，就杀伤力而言，奥密克戎迄今为止似乎很温和。仍有很多东西需要学习，但这是我们不断从对COVID有丰富经验的医生和卫生当局那里得到的信息。</blockquote></p><p> “What we are seeing clinically in South Africa, and remember I’m at the epicenter of this where I’m practicing, is extremely mild for us,” says Angelique Coetzee, a doctor in South Africa who has three decades of experience. “These are mild cases. We haven’t admitted anyone. I’ve spoken to other colleagues of mine and they give the same picture.”</p><p><blockquote>拥有三十年经验的南非医生安吉丽克·库切(Angelique Coetzee)表示：“我们在南非临床上看到的情况，请记住，我正处于我执业的中心，对我们来说极其温和。”“这些都是轻微病例。我们没有收治任何人。我和我的其他同事谈过，他们也给出了同样的情况。”</blockquote></p><p> Hospitalizations in South Africa “are ticking up but not incredibly fast,” agrees William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-director of its Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. U.S. health authorities confirm omicron may not be especially lethal. Both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Minnesota Department of Health describe the first cases found in the U.S. so far as mild.</p><p><blockquote>哈佛大学流行病学副教授兼传染病动力学中心联席主任威廉·哈纳奇（William Hanage）表示同意，南非的住院人数“正在增加，但速度并不是令人难以置信的快”。美国卫生当局证实，奥密克戎病毒可能不会特别致命。美国疾病控制与预防中心和明尼苏达州卫生部都将迄今为止在美国发现的首例病例描述为轻度病例。</blockquote></p><p> if the omicron variant is mild, this wouldn’t be a surprise. Respiratory viruses naturally evolve to be <i>more contagious and less lethal</i>, notes Professor Karl Lauterbach, an epidemiologist in Germany. This makes sense from the point of view of a virus. A virus has a better chance if it spreads quickly and does not kill its host.</p><p><blockquote>如果奥密克戎变种是温和的，这并不奇怪。呼吸道病毒自然进化为<i>传染性更强，致命性更低</i>德国流行病学家卡尔·劳特巴赫教授指出。从病毒的角度来看，这是有道理的。如果病毒传播迅速并且不会杀死宿主，它的机会就会更大。</blockquote></p><p> On vaccine “escape” or evasion, former Food and Drug Administration chief Scott Gottlieb thinks the current vaccines will work against omicron by suppressing symptoms enough to lower hospitalizations. “There’s a high degree of confidence that efficacy is going to be preserved,” he says. “Will it be the same 95%? Perhaps not, but you will still have a meaningful amount of efficacy.”</p><p><blockquote>关于疫苗“逃逸”或逃避，前美国食品和药物管理局局长Scott Gottlieb认为，目前的疫苗将通过抑制症状足以降低住院率来对抗奥密克戎病毒。“人们非常有信心保持功效，”他说。“会是同样的95%吗？也许不会，但你仍然会有有意义的功效。”</blockquote></p><p> He notes the mRNA vaccine companies can tweak their vaccines to make them even better, in a matter of months. Vaccine companies like Pfizer&nbsp;confirm boosters will work, and that they’ll be able to customize them for the omicron variant. “In our view and reiterated by Pfizer, the current booster will likely be effective,” says Jefferies biotech analyst Michael Yee. “A new version for 2022 can be even better.”</p><p><blockquote>他指出，mRNA疫苗公司可以在几个月内调整他们的疫苗，使其变得更好。辉瑞等疫苗公司确认加强剂会起作用，并且他们将能够为奥密克戎变种定制加强剂。杰富瑞生物技术分析师Michael Yee表示：“我们认为，辉瑞也重申，目前的增强剂可能会有效。”“2022年的新版本可能会更好。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀</b></blockquote></p><p> There’s are lots of reasons to think inflation fears are overblown. The worry here is that the Federal Reserve is “behind the curve” so it will have to hike rates aggressively, which might kill growth and the bull market. This isn’t going to happen. One sign is that commodity prices and shipping costs have been falling sharply. These are often the leading edge of inflation.</p><p><blockquote>有很多理由认为通胀担忧被夸大了。这里的担忧是美联储“落后于形势”，因此它将不得不大幅加息，这可能会扼杀增长和牛市。这是不会发生的。一个迹象是大宗商品价格和运输成本一直在大幅下降。这些往往是通货膨胀的前沿。</blockquote></p><p> Next, take a moment to drill down on the current inflation spike. To do so, consider the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s breakdown of the parts of the Core CPI Index into “flexible” categories (quick to change) and “sticky” categories (slow to change). Right now, the flexible components account for most of the headline inflation.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，花点时间深入了解当前的通胀飙升。为此，请考虑亚特兰大联储将核心CPI指数的各个部分分为“灵活”类别（变化快）和“粘性”类别（变化慢）。目前，灵活成分占总体通胀的大部分。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> These prices are up around 15% in the past year, compared to 3% gains for the “sticky” prices, points out economist Jim Paulsen, the market strategist at Leuthold Group. “While troublesome, the Core CPI Index’s overall rise is due almost entirely to prices that traditionally move around a lot, both up and down,” he says. This suggests the headline inflation rate can reverse and move down quickly from here.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group市场策略师、经济学家吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)指出，这些价格在过去一年中上涨了约15%，而“粘性”价格的涨幅为3%。“虽然很麻烦，但核心CPI指数的整体上涨几乎完全是由于传统上价格波动较大，无论是上下波动，”他表示。这表明总体通胀率可能会逆转并从这里迅速下降。</blockquote></p><p> That’s what a lot of analysts and bond market investors think. Analysts expect inflation of less than 2% over the next two to 10 years, according to projections tracked by the Atlanta Fed. Meanwhile, the 10-year inflation rate projected by investors in the bond market stands at around 2.6%, notes Paulsen. Not terribly alarming.</p><p><blockquote>这是很多分析师和债市投资者的想法。根据亚特兰大联储追踪的预测，分析师预计未来两到十年通胀率将低于2%。保尔森指出，与此同时，债券市场投资者预计的10年期通胀率约为2.6%。不是很令人担忧。</blockquote></p><p> These projections make sense to me, because companies say their supply chain issues will be fixed by around the middle of next year. Shortages linked to supply chain issues have been a main contributor to price spikes.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测对我来说是有意义的，因为公司表示他们的供应链问题将在明年年中左右得到解决。与供应链问题相关的短缺是价格飙升的主要原因。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, mobility tracking data from Alphabet,Apple,OpenTable and the Transportation Security Administration show that people in the U.S. have significantly curtailed how much they go out in public. On Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, TSA check-ins were 79%-81% of 2019 levels, compared to 85% to 90% in the prior 10 days, by my calculations. If this reduced mobility slows the economy a little, it will ease fears about inflation and the need for the Fed taking away the punch bowl too quickly.</p><p><blockquote>最后，来自Alphabet、苹果、OpenTable和运输安全管理局的移动跟踪数据显示，美国人显着减少了在公共场合外出的次数。根据我的计算，11月30日和12月1日，美国运输安全管理局的登记人数为2019年水平的79%-81%，而前10天为85%至90%。如果流动性的减少稍微减缓了经济，这将缓解人们对通胀的担忧，以及美联储过快拿走潘趣酒碗的必要性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Insiders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内部人士</b></blockquote></p><p> In a mini-replay of March-October of 2020 when the COVID crisis first raged, insiders have once again stepped up to buy market weakness caused by fresh COVID fears. True, insiders are not epidemiologists. But they are not dummies either. They have good networks of contacts and they see the tone of their businesses every day. Their buying is focused on all the right areas like cyclicals, retail, energy and industrials, not defensive names.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年3月至10月COVID危机首次肆虐时的迷你回放中，内部人士再次站出来买入由新的COVID担忧造成的市场疲软。诚然，内部人士不是流行病学家。但他们也不是傻瓜。他们有良好的人脉网络，他们每天都能看到自己业务的基调。他们的购买集中在所有正确的领域，如周期性股票、零售、能源和工业，而不是防御性股票。</blockquote></p><p> Companies where insiders have been buying meaningful amounts over the past several days include outdoor and retail names Six Flags Entertainment,American Eagle Outfitters,Nordstrom&nbsp;and American Woodmark; travel names like Delta Air Lines&nbsp;and Playa Hotels &amp; Resorts ; energy names like Exxon Mobil&nbsp;and EOG Resources; and materials names like Cleveland-Cliffs&nbsp;and Orion Engineered Carbons.</p><p><blockquote>过去几天，内部人士大量买入的公司包括户外和零售品牌六旗娱乐公司、American Eagle Outfitters、Nordstrom和American Woodmark；达美航空和普拉亚酒店及度假村等旅游公司；埃克森美孚和EOG资源等能源公司；以及克利夫兰悬崖和猎户座工程碳等材料名称。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ho, ho, ho!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>嗬，嗬，嗬！</b></blockquote></p><p> Their buying confirms work by seasonality and trading expert Larry Williams who tells me his work concludes we can expect a “Santa Claus” rally once again, later this month. We’ll see, but since the two main fears are false fears that will till take a little time to more fully recede, this makes sense to me.</p><p><blockquote>他们的购买证实了季节性和交易专家拉里·威廉姆斯的工作，他告诉我，他的工作得出的结论是，我们可以期待本月晚些时候再次出现“圣诞老人”反弹。我们会看到的，但由于两个主要的恐惧是虚假的恐惧，需要一点时间才能完全消退，这对我来说是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/insider-buying-says-a-santa-claus-rally-is-on-the-way-here-are-10-stocks-they-favor-11638541634?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLYA":"Playa Hotels & Resorts NV","CLF":"克利夫兰克里夫","AEO":"美鹰服饰","OEC":"Orion Engineered Carbons","AMWD":"美国伍德马克","SIX":"Six Flags Entertainment Corp","DAL":"达美航空","XOM":"埃克森美孚","EOG":"依欧格资源","JWN":"诺德斯特龙"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/insider-buying-says-a-santa-claus-rally-is-on-the-way-here-are-10-stocks-they-favor-11638541634?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188576930","content_text":"Corporate insiders stepped up buying considerably when the stock market weakened\nMarketWatch composite/Getty Images\nHang on to your stock-market exposure and add more if you can.\nThe twin fears spooking investors – the omicron COVID strain and inflation – are overdone. Stocks should proceed higher as more people figure this out, leading to a Santa Claus rally later this month.\nCorporate insiders confirm this view. They’ve stepped up buying considerably in the market weakness. What’s more they’re buying all the right groups – travel, retail, energy and materials, among others. These are the cyclical areas that’ll do the best as worries about growth recede, and insiders know it. I don’t see any hunkering down in defensive names like consumer staples.\nThere are lots of stock bargains because there’s been so much damage, even if narrower indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have hung tough, propped up by a few large names. The Russell 2000 small-cap index is down more than 10%, and most stocks in the more widely followed indexes like the S&P 500 have also fallen more than 10% at some point recently.\nI’ll single out 10 names favored by insiders, including several I’ve recently suggested in my stock advisory letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in my bio, below). But first, a quick look at why insiders, like me, don’t seem to be too worried about the twin fears.\nOmicron\nThe concern here is that this new variant is far more contagious and deadly than the delta variant.\nThe first fear may be true. Case counts are rising sharply in South Africa, which suggests it is more contagious. As for lethality, though, omicron seems to be mild so far. There is still a lot to learn, but this is the message we consistently get from doctors and health authorities with lots of experience with COVID.\n“What we are seeing clinically in South Africa, and remember I’m at the epicenter of this where I’m practicing, is extremely mild for us,” says Angelique Coetzee, a doctor in South Africa who has three decades of experience. “These are mild cases. We haven’t admitted anyone. I’ve spoken to other colleagues of mine and they give the same picture.”\nHospitalizations in South Africa “are ticking up but not incredibly fast,” agrees William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-director of its Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. U.S. health authorities confirm omicron may not be especially lethal. Both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Minnesota Department of Health describe the first cases found in the U.S. so far as mild.\nif the omicron variant is mild, this wouldn’t be a surprise. Respiratory viruses naturally evolve to be more contagious and less lethal, notes Professor Karl Lauterbach, an epidemiologist in Germany. This makes sense from the point of view of a virus. A virus has a better chance if it spreads quickly and does not kill its host.\nOn vaccine “escape” or evasion, former Food and Drug Administration chief Scott Gottlieb thinks the current vaccines will work against omicron by suppressing symptoms enough to lower hospitalizations. “There’s a high degree of confidence that efficacy is going to be preserved,” he says. “Will it be the same 95%? Perhaps not, but you will still have a meaningful amount of efficacy.”\nHe notes the mRNA vaccine companies can tweak their vaccines to make them even better, in a matter of months. Vaccine companies like Pfizer confirm boosters will work, and that they’ll be able to customize them for the omicron variant. “In our view and reiterated by Pfizer, the current booster will likely be effective,” says Jefferies biotech analyst Michael Yee. “A new version for 2022 can be even better.”\nInflation\nThere’s are lots of reasons to think inflation fears are overblown. The worry here is that the Federal Reserve is “behind the curve” so it will have to hike rates aggressively, which might kill growth and the bull market. This isn’t going to happen. One sign is that commodity prices and shipping costs have been falling sharply. These are often the leading edge of inflation.\nNext, take a moment to drill down on the current inflation spike. To do so, consider the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s breakdown of the parts of the Core CPI Index into “flexible” categories (quick to change) and “sticky” categories (slow to change). Right now, the flexible components account for most of the headline inflation.\nThese prices are up around 15% in the past year, compared to 3% gains for the “sticky” prices, points out economist Jim Paulsen, the market strategist at Leuthold Group. “While troublesome, the Core CPI Index’s overall rise is due almost entirely to prices that traditionally move around a lot, both up and down,” he says. This suggests the headline inflation rate can reverse and move down quickly from here.\nThat’s what a lot of analysts and bond market investors think. Analysts expect inflation of less than 2% over the next two to 10 years, according to projections tracked by the Atlanta Fed. Meanwhile, the 10-year inflation rate projected by investors in the bond market stands at around 2.6%, notes Paulsen. Not terribly alarming.\nThese projections make sense to me, because companies say their supply chain issues will be fixed by around the middle of next year. Shortages linked to supply chain issues have been a main contributor to price spikes.\nFinally, mobility tracking data from Alphabet,Apple,OpenTable and the Transportation Security Administration show that people in the U.S. have significantly curtailed how much they go out in public. On Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, TSA check-ins were 79%-81% of 2019 levels, compared to 85% to 90% in the prior 10 days, by my calculations. If this reduced mobility slows the economy a little, it will ease fears about inflation and the need for the Fed taking away the punch bowl too quickly.\nInsiders\nIn a mini-replay of March-October of 2020 when the COVID crisis first raged, insiders have once again stepped up to buy market weakness caused by fresh COVID fears. True, insiders are not epidemiologists. But they are not dummies either. They have good networks of contacts and they see the tone of their businesses every day. Their buying is focused on all the right areas like cyclicals, retail, energy and industrials, not defensive names.\nCompanies where insiders have been buying meaningful amounts over the past several days include outdoor and retail names Six Flags Entertainment,American Eagle Outfitters,Nordstrom and American Woodmark; travel names like Delta Air Lines and Playa Hotels & Resorts ; energy names like Exxon Mobil and EOG Resources; and materials names like Cleveland-Cliffs and Orion Engineered Carbons.\nHo, ho, ho!\nTheir buying confirms work by seasonality and trading expert Larry Williams who tells me his work concludes we can expect a “Santa Claus” rally once again, later this month. We’ll see, but since the two main fears are false fears that will till take a little time to more fully recede, this makes sense to me.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLF":0.9,"PLYA":0.9,"JWN":0.9,"SIX":0.9,"EOG":0.9,"AEO":0.9,"AMWD":0.9,"XOM":0.9,"DAL":0.9,"OEC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840224211,"gmtCreate":1635651792308,"gmtModify":1635651792385,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556009150724705","authorIdStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I’ll buy my favourite stocks on a 10% decline","listText":"I’ll buy my favourite stocks on a 10% decline","text":"I’ll buy my favourite stocks on a 10% decline","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840224211","repostId":"1130019043","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130019043","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635579123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130019043?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-30 15:32","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Top Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming<blockquote>华尔街顶级策略师预计第四季度将出现10%的快速调整</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130019043","media":"24/7 wall street","summary":"A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors a","content":"<p>A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors are well aware of the FAANG stocks, which are the massive tech monsters that rule the market. In addition, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the acronyms used to describe the constant rise in the stock markets, especially when the “buy the dip” crowd takes control after sizable selling, is FOMO, or fear of missing out.</p><p><blockquote>在金融界，大量的首字母缩略词用于各种各样的项目。大多数投资者都很清楚FAANG股票，它们是统治市场的大型科技巨头。此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>FOMO是用来描述股市持续上涨的首字母缩略词之一，尤其是当“逢低买入”人群在大量抛售后控制局面时。</blockquote></p><p> One of the very newest acronyms to hit the market speak lexicon is TINA. That stands for “there is no alternative,” which is an explanation for the constant ascent of the stock market. Basically what it means is that, due to very low yields on bonds and cash, especially with mounting inflation, owning stocks (especially those that pay solid and predictable dividends) is the only way to stay ahead of the game.</p><p><blockquote>TINA是市场词汇中最新出现的首字母缩略词之一。这代表“别无选择”，这是对股市不断上涨的解释。基本上，这意味着，由于债券和现金的收益率非常低，特别是在通货膨胀加剧的情况下，持有股票（尤其是那些支付稳定且可预测股息的股票）是保持领先地位的唯一途径。</blockquote></p><p> If any one equity strategist across Wall Street has been right on the money over the past few years, it is Stifel’s head of Institutional Equity Strategy, Barry Bannister, and he is advising clients that we could be poised to have a TINA trap sell-off. We have covered his outstanding and prescient calls for years, and generally when he talks, we listen. Those who did so at the height of the sell-off in 2020 posted some massive gains.</p><p><blockquote>如果说过去几年华尔街有哪一位股票策略师是正确的，那就是Stifel的机构股票策略主管巴里·班尼斯特(Barry Bannister)，他向客户建议，我们可能会遭遇TINA陷阱抛售。多年来，我们一直在报道他杰出而有先见之明的评级，通常当他说话时，我们会倾听。那些在2020年抛售最严重的时候这样做的人取得了一些巨大的收益。</blockquote></p><p> On March 19, 2020, just four short days before the final surge of selling and investor capitulation on March 23, Bannister and his team dropped a prediction for a relief rally that would carry the S&amp;P 500 to the 2,750 level by April 30. On March 23, the index hit an intraday low of 2,191, and it closed at 2,237.</p><p><blockquote>2020年3月19日，就在3月23日抛售和投资者投降最后激增的短短四天前，班尼斯特和他的团队放弃了对缓解性反弹的预测，该反弹将使标普500在4月30日之前升至2,750点。3月23日，该指数盘中最低触及2191点，收盘于2237点。</blockquote></p><p> We covered that incredibly bold prediction then, and while some were very skeptical of the call, Bannister made the prerequisite financial media rounds at the time giving his firm’s rationale for the prediction. In early April of 2020 as a surge of alarming news on the COVID-19 pandemic flooded the airwaves, Stifel came out and defended the call, telling clients to stand their ground. In the middle of April, as the rest of Wall Street was finally on board, Stifel raised the end-of-April target to 2,950. On April 30, in line with the laser-like call from Stifel, the S&amp;P 500 closed at 2,912 after hitting an intraday high of 2,930 and after trading to 2,950 level the day before. In late May of 2020, Stifel once again raised the price target on the S&amp;P 500 to 3,250 by August 30.</p><p><blockquote>我们当时报道了这一令人难以置信的大胆预测，虽然有些人对看涨期权非常怀疑，但班尼斯特当时在金融媒体上发表了先决条件，给出了他的公司做出这一预测的理由。2020年4月初，随着有关COVID-19大流行的令人震惊的消息充斥电视广播，Stifel站出来为看涨期权辩护，告诉客户坚持自己的立场。4月中旬，随着华尔街其他人终于加入进来，Stifel将4月底的目标上调至2,950点。4月30日，与Stifel激光般的看涨期权一致，标普500在触及2930点的盘中高点并在前一天交易至2950点后收于2912点。2020年5月下旬，Stifel再次将标普500的目标价上调至8月30日的3,250点。</blockquote></p><p> Once again, Bannister sees storm clouds on the horizon, and with good reason. Everything from stocks to gold, Treasury debt and oil and have been pushed higher. This is a result of a unique combination of the FOMO worries and the TINA mentality. In a new research report, Bannister and his team feel that a lightning-fast 10% correction could occur in the remaining months of the fourth quarter. The report noted this:</p><p><blockquote>班尼斯特又一次看到了地平线上的乌云，这是有充分理由的。从股票到黄金、国债和石油，一切都被推高。这是FOMO担忧和TINA心态独特结合的结果。在一份新的研究报告中，班尼斯特和他的团队认为，第四季度剩余几个月可能会出现闪电般的10%修正。报告指出：</blockquote></p><p>   Near-term in the fourth quarter of 2021, we note that equal-weighted cyclicals vs. defensives are very near the point at which P/E-driven S&amp;P 500 corrections occur, and we see downside equating to the S&amp;P 500 falling from 4,535 currently to ~4,000 (prior view 3,800), around a 10% correction in the fourth quarter as we see mid-cycle risks.    Our target and concerns are based on slowing global liquidity and tighter financial conditions with a gradual but unwavering Fed exit (especially after the Fed Chair is named). Sure, the Fed-inflated TINA trade “There is No Alternative” (to stocks) exists, but everyone goes into the boxing ring “with a plan” to buy-the-dip…until they get hit with a double-digit correction.    Looking out to mid-2022 through 2025, we observe that value vs. growth tracks the S&amp;P 500 divided by commodity index ratio, which soared in 2020 (favored growth stocks), fell in 2021 (favors value) and may bounce in mid-2022 (after the S&amp;P 500 corrects) favoring growth, post-dip. We also show that despite the Quantitative Easing taper the S&amp;P 500 could hit 5,200 by Jun-2022 (TINA’s last gasp?). Moreover, we see no actual bear market, which would be a 20% or more decline until fed funds is 1% (4 rate hikes), which fed funds futures indicate does not occur until 2024. </p><p><blockquote>近期在2021年第四季度，我们注意到等权重周期性股票与防御性股票非常接近市盈率驱动的标普500修正发生的点，我们认为下行相当于标普500从目前的4,535点下跌至约4,000点（之前的观点为3,800点），由于我们看到了中期周期风险，第四季度的修正约为10%。我们的目标和担忧基于全球流动性放缓和金融状况收紧，美联储将逐步但坚定不移地退出（尤其是在美联储主席任命之后）。当然，美联储膨胀的TINA交易“别无选择”（股票）是存在的，但每个人都“带着一个计划”进入拳击场，以逢低买入……直到他们受到两位数的修正。展望2022年中期至2025年，我们观察到价值与增长遵循标普500除以大宗商品指数比率，该比率在2020年飙升（青睐成长股），在2021年下跌（青睐价值股），并可能在2022年中期反弹（标普500修正后）有利于增长，下跌后。我们还表明，尽管量化宽松缩减，到2022年6月，标普500仍可能达到5,200（TINA的最后一口气？）.此外，我们没有看到真正的熊市，在联邦基金利率达到1%（加息4次）之前，熊市将下跌20%或更多，联邦基金期货表明这种情况要到2024年才会发生。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1620372341666","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming<blockquote>华尔街顶级策略师预计第四季度将出现10%的快速调整</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming<blockquote>华尔街顶级策略师预计第四季度将出现10%的快速调整</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">24/7 wall street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-30 15:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors are well aware of the FAANG stocks, which are the massive tech monsters that rule the market. In addition, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the acronyms used to describe the constant rise in the stock markets, especially when the “buy the dip” crowd takes control after sizable selling, is FOMO, or fear of missing out.</p><p><blockquote>在金融界，大量的首字母缩略词用于各种各样的项目。大多数投资者都很清楚FAANG股票，它们是统治市场的大型科技巨头。此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>FOMO是用来描述股市持续上涨的首字母缩略词之一，尤其是当“逢低买入”人群在大量抛售后控制局面时。</blockquote></p><p> One of the very newest acronyms to hit the market speak lexicon is TINA. That stands for “there is no alternative,” which is an explanation for the constant ascent of the stock market. Basically what it means is that, due to very low yields on bonds and cash, especially with mounting inflation, owning stocks (especially those that pay solid and predictable dividends) is the only way to stay ahead of the game.</p><p><blockquote>TINA是市场词汇中最新出现的首字母缩略词之一。这代表“别无选择”，这是对股市不断上涨的解释。基本上，这意味着，由于债券和现金的收益率非常低，特别是在通货膨胀加剧的情况下，持有股票（尤其是那些支付稳定且可预测股息的股票）是保持领先地位的唯一途径。</blockquote></p><p> If any one equity strategist across Wall Street has been right on the money over the past few years, it is Stifel’s head of Institutional Equity Strategy, Barry Bannister, and he is advising clients that we could be poised to have a TINA trap sell-off. We have covered his outstanding and prescient calls for years, and generally when he talks, we listen. Those who did so at the height of the sell-off in 2020 posted some massive gains.</p><p><blockquote>如果说过去几年华尔街有哪一位股票策略师是正确的，那就是Stifel的机构股票策略主管巴里·班尼斯特(Barry Bannister)，他向客户建议，我们可能会遭遇TINA陷阱抛售。多年来，我们一直在报道他杰出而有先见之明的评级，通常当他说话时，我们会倾听。那些在2020年抛售最严重的时候这样做的人取得了一些巨大的收益。</blockquote></p><p> On March 19, 2020, just four short days before the final surge of selling and investor capitulation on March 23, Bannister and his team dropped a prediction for a relief rally that would carry the S&amp;P 500 to the 2,750 level by April 30. On March 23, the index hit an intraday low of 2,191, and it closed at 2,237.</p><p><blockquote>2020年3月19日，就在3月23日抛售和投资者投降最后激增的短短四天前，班尼斯特和他的团队放弃了对缓解性反弹的预测，该反弹将使标普500在4月30日之前升至2,750点。3月23日，该指数盘中最低触及2191点，收盘于2237点。</blockquote></p><p> We covered that incredibly bold prediction then, and while some were very skeptical of the call, Bannister made the prerequisite financial media rounds at the time giving his firm’s rationale for the prediction. In early April of 2020 as a surge of alarming news on the COVID-19 pandemic flooded the airwaves, Stifel came out and defended the call, telling clients to stand their ground. In the middle of April, as the rest of Wall Street was finally on board, Stifel raised the end-of-April target to 2,950. On April 30, in line with the laser-like call from Stifel, the S&amp;P 500 closed at 2,912 after hitting an intraday high of 2,930 and after trading to 2,950 level the day before. In late May of 2020, Stifel once again raised the price target on the S&amp;P 500 to 3,250 by August 30.</p><p><blockquote>我们当时报道了这一令人难以置信的大胆预测，虽然有些人对看涨期权非常怀疑，但班尼斯特当时在金融媒体上发表了先决条件，给出了他的公司做出这一预测的理由。2020年4月初，随着有关COVID-19大流行的令人震惊的消息充斥电视广播，Stifel站出来为看涨期权辩护，告诉客户坚持自己的立场。4月中旬，随着华尔街其他人终于加入进来，Stifel将4月底的目标上调至2,950点。4月30日，与Stifel激光般的看涨期权一致，标普500在触及2930点的盘中高点并在前一天交易至2950点后收于2912点。2020年5月下旬，Stifel再次将标普500的目标价上调至8月30日的3,250点。</blockquote></p><p> Once again, Bannister sees storm clouds on the horizon, and with good reason. Everything from stocks to gold, Treasury debt and oil and have been pushed higher. This is a result of a unique combination of the FOMO worries and the TINA mentality. In a new research report, Bannister and his team feel that a lightning-fast 10% correction could occur in the remaining months of the fourth quarter. The report noted this:</p><p><blockquote>班尼斯特又一次看到了地平线上的乌云，这是有充分理由的。从股票到黄金、国债和石油，一切都被推高。这是FOMO担忧和TINA心态独特结合的结果。在一份新的研究报告中，班尼斯特和他的团队认为，第四季度剩余几个月可能会出现闪电般的10%修正。报告指出：</blockquote></p><p>   Near-term in the fourth quarter of 2021, we note that equal-weighted cyclicals vs. defensives are very near the point at which P/E-driven S&amp;P 500 corrections occur, and we see downside equating to the S&amp;P 500 falling from 4,535 currently to ~4,000 (prior view 3,800), around a 10% correction in the fourth quarter as we see mid-cycle risks.    Our target and concerns are based on slowing global liquidity and tighter financial conditions with a gradual but unwavering Fed exit (especially after the Fed Chair is named). Sure, the Fed-inflated TINA trade “There is No Alternative” (to stocks) exists, but everyone goes into the boxing ring “with a plan” to buy-the-dip…until they get hit with a double-digit correction.    Looking out to mid-2022 through 2025, we observe that value vs. growth tracks the S&amp;P 500 divided by commodity index ratio, which soared in 2020 (favored growth stocks), fell in 2021 (favors value) and may bounce in mid-2022 (after the S&amp;P 500 corrects) favoring growth, post-dip. We also show that despite the Quantitative Easing taper the S&amp;P 500 could hit 5,200 by Jun-2022 (TINA’s last gasp?). Moreover, we see no actual bear market, which would be a 20% or more decline until fed funds is 1% (4 rate hikes), which fed funds futures indicate does not occur until 2024. </p><p><blockquote>近期在2021年第四季度，我们注意到等权重周期性股票与防御性股票非常接近市盈率驱动的标普500修正发生的点，我们认为下行相当于标普500从目前的4,535点下跌至约4,000点（之前的观点为3,800点），由于我们看到了中期周期风险，第四季度的修正约为10%。我们的目标和担忧基于全球流动性放缓和金融状况收紧，美联储将逐步但坚定不移地退出（尤其是在美联储主席任命之后）。当然，美联储膨胀的TINA交易“别无选择”（股票）是存在的，但每个人都“带着一个计划”进入拳击场，以逢低买入……直到他们受到两位数的修正。展望2022年中期至2025年，我们观察到价值与增长遵循标普500除以大宗商品指数比率，该比率在2020年飙升（青睐成长股），在2021年下跌（青睐价值股），并可能在2022年中期反弹（标普500修正后）有利于增长，下跌后。我们还表明，尽管量化宽松缩减，到2022年6月，标普500仍可能达到5,200（TINA的最后一口气？）.此外，我们没有看到真正的熊市，在联邦基金利率达到1%（加息4次）之前，熊市将下跌20%或更多，联邦基金期货表明这种情况要到2024年才会发生。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://247wallst.com/investing/2021/10/29/top-wall-street-strategist-sees-a-fast-10-q4-correction-coming/\">24/7 wall street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://247wallst.com/investing/2021/10/29/top-wall-street-strategist-sees-a-fast-10-q4-correction-coming/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130019043","content_text":"A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors are well aware of the FAANG stocks, which are the massive tech monsters that rule the market. In addition, one of the acronyms used to describe the constant rise in the stock markets, especially when the “buy the dip” crowd takes control after sizable selling, is FOMO, or fear of missing out.\nOne of the very newest acronyms to hit the market speak lexicon is TINA. That stands for “there is no alternative,” which is an explanation for the constant ascent of the stock market. Basically what it means is that, due to very low yields on bonds and cash, especially with mounting inflation, owning stocks (especially those that pay solid and predictable dividends) is the only way to stay ahead of the game.\nIf any one equity strategist across Wall Street has been right on the money over the past few years, it is Stifel’s head of Institutional Equity Strategy, Barry Bannister, and he is advising clients that we could be poised to have a TINA trap sell-off. We have covered his outstanding and prescient calls for years, and generally when he talks, we listen. Those who did so at the height of the sell-off in 2020 posted some massive gains.\nOn March 19, 2020, just four short days before the final surge of selling and investor capitulation on March 23, Bannister and his team dropped a prediction for a relief rally that would carry the S&P 500 to the 2,750 level by April 30. On March 23, the index hit an intraday low of 2,191, and it closed at 2,237.\nWe covered that incredibly bold prediction then, and while some were very skeptical of the call, Bannister made the prerequisite financial media rounds at the time giving his firm’s rationale for the prediction. In early April of 2020 as a surge of alarming news on the COVID-19 pandemic flooded the airwaves, Stifel came out and defended the call, telling clients to stand their ground. In the middle of April, as the rest of Wall Street was finally on board, Stifel raised the end-of-April target to 2,950. On April 30, in line with the laser-like call from Stifel, the S&P 500 closed at 2,912 after hitting an intraday high of 2,930 and after trading to 2,950 level the day before. In late May of 2020, Stifel once again raised the price target on the S&P 500 to 3,250 by August 30.\nOnce again, Bannister sees storm clouds on the horizon, and with good reason. Everything from stocks to gold, Treasury debt and oil and have been pushed higher. This is a result of a unique combination of the FOMO worries and the TINA mentality. In a new research report, Bannister and his team feel that a lightning-fast 10% correction could occur in the remaining months of the fourth quarter. The report noted this:\n\n Near-term in the fourth quarter of 2021, we note that equal-weighted cyclicals vs. defensives are very near the point at which P/E-driven S&P 500 corrections occur, and we see downside equating to the S&P 500 falling from 4,535 currently to ~4,000 (prior view 3,800), around a 10% correction in the fourth quarter as we see mid-cycle risks.\n\n\n Our target and concerns are based on slowing global liquidity and tighter financial conditions with a gradual but unwavering Fed exit (especially after the Fed Chair is named). Sure, the Fed-inflated TINA trade “There is No Alternative” (to stocks) exists, but everyone goes into the boxing ring “with a plan” to buy-the-dip…until they get hit with a double-digit correction.\n\n\n Looking out to mid-2022 through 2025, we observe that value vs. growth tracks the S&P 500 divided by commodity index ratio, which soared in 2020 (favored growth stocks), fell in 2021 (favors value) and may bounce in mid-2022 (after the S&P 500 corrects) favoring growth, post-dip. We also show that despite the Quantitative Easing taper the S&P 500 could hit 5,200 by Jun-2022 (TINA’s last gasp?). Moreover, we see no actual bear market, which would be a 20% or more decline until fed funds is 1% (4 rate hikes), which fed funds futures indicate does not occur until 2024.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":191118953,"gmtCreate":1620863778772,"gmtModify":1634195829619,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556009150724705","authorIdStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Right decision&nbsp;","listText":"Right decision&nbsp;","text":"Right decision","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191118953","repostId":"1123539919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375260577,"gmtCreate":1619348806799,"gmtModify":1631884329018,"author":{"id":"3556009150724705","authorId":"3556009150724705","name":"AzriTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2dd3815c5b541b203633cd6793d099","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556009150724705","authorIdStr":"3556009150724705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope it’ll be a good week","listText":"Hope it’ll be a good week","text":"Hope it’ll be a good week","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375260577","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}