$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$I am still deciding on whether to participate on the dividend or sell before Ex date (11 May 2021) for my investment position (not trading).I pull out some historical data to guide my decision. I feel that many of us may face the same dilemma so decide to share some findings.Base on historical data, the probability of YZJ to recover the dividend after Ex date is higher when both STI index and YZJ are experiencing bull run. However, we will not know this year is a bull or bear until the year end. What we can do is to anticipate it. Refer to the photo for the findings

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Is YZJ Cheap or Expensive?Based on 10 years Discounted CashflowFair value: $1.92With 10% margin: $1.73With 20% margin: $1.54Based on DCF current price of $1.49 still look reasonable.Based on the photoCurrent price relative to historical average still look reasonable.This is shipping industry supercycle so it would not be surprised if the price can be valued between Highest and Average PB/PE

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$YZJ from a technical perspectiveYZY business fundamental remains intact and what has changed was just the price.Looking at Picture 1 yzj is still on a uptrend with long term moving averages sloping up+trend line.Looking at Picture 2 yzj is a textbook breakout and retrace to find support at previous resistance around $1.55. It may be due for a rebound based on1) Previous resistance act as a support 2) Stochastic oversold 3) Candle stick pattern of hammer (I don't really look at candle stick pattern actually)However, remember that TA is just a probability.

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Evergrande debt implication on YZJYZJ has limited disclosure on its debt investments. So there is no information showing YZJ actually held Evergrande DebtAnalysis from public available informationSource: YZJ 1H Financial ResultTotal Debt amortised at cost:10,907,170+5,719,110=16,626,280Debt investment as a percentages of total asset:16,626,280/47,334,191 = 35% This means that if all YZJ debt investment get wipe out, 35% of its assets will be goneConcern about Real Estate debt default.About 41% of its debt investments were from real estate sector.0.41 x 16,626,280 = 6,816,774.8Real estate debt investment as a percentage of total asset:6,816,774.8/47,334,191 =14.4%This means that if all YZJ real estate related

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$There are bullish signs of build up around the resistance level. An effective breakout* would likely to occur soon.*Effective mean gap up or long bullish candle piercing through resistance level. 

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Spinning off of Debt investmentsYZJ is spinning off and listing its Debt investments arm.As at end of 3rd quarter, YZJ has in book 10,917,649,000CNY (SGD2.3 billion) worth of debt investments. This SDG2.3billion if sell of at book value would mean sell off at about SGD0.59.This cash can be used for 1) Ship building growth2) Capital Reduction via dividend and/or share purchaseWhat if the listing of this arm at IPO price higher than SGD 2.3billion? 

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$On 5 Nov 2021, YZJ exercised 5 million share buy back at SGD1.30What may be the implication?From Q3 result, part of its debt investments has been redeemed (SGD1.4B|CNY6.8). This means that YZJ is sitting on cash. Idle cash is costly so it can be reinvested in more shipyards, other businesses or maximised shareholder value through dividend/share repurchase.At $1.30, the management feel its stock is undervalued.The maximum number of share authorised to buy: 394,851,600 Q3 Result is past tense, stock is forward looking. Let me end with this sentence挡风玻璃为什么比后视镜大，因为前面的路比过去的更重要，你可以回头看，但别忘了前行的路...

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$ 扬子江船业是属于景气循环行业，盈利会跟着景气复苏。景气坏的时候就是买点，前提是要公司基本面不变。景气好的时候就是买点。用时间换取高收益。不断的接到订单是肯定未来的复苏。不过，杨子江投资的债务有点多，如果出现违约，这是一个较大的风险。钢铁上涨和美元走弱都会对她造成一定的伤害。估值: 每股净值大概 1.7星币，打个8这也是1.36星币。现在的股价实在是低估了。以上只是个人观点，提供参考

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Some friends ask me that according to Relative strength index (RSI) now is overbought and coming down. To sell or not? To me now is something called RSI stoning. Meaning that if you are stort term trade, this may be a good time to earn. Do not anticipate the high. For Technical Analyst, do not draw conclusion base on emotion. The next few days need to see if it continue above oversold region. I will continue to hold if it continue to be above 70. Will sell if the RSI start to come down. This is for my short term trade

$U.S. Steel(X)$ Don't concentrate your bet in a single sector. Tech down but traditional businesses are up.