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2021-12-03

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ There's some heavy shortselling. We need to band together and squeeze the shortsellers out. Spread the word and buy....

2021-06-23

Elon Musk and Tesla tends to hype things. Hope Tesla get their 4680 batteries right eventually.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-04

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Poor Sister Cathie, all of the stocks in Wood's Ark Innovation fund are in a bear market except 2. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/03/all-of-the-stocks-in-cathie-woods-ark-innovation-fund-are-in-a-bear-market-except-2.htmlNew ETF bets against Cathie Wood's flagship ARK strategy http://citywireusa.com/professional-buyer/news/new-etf-bets-against-cathie-woods-flagship-ark-strategy/a1537669

2021-12-03

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$what's the news that moved this today? Why is it shorted down again when the mkt is flat or up? Has the coy fundamentals chged? All the good coy news are useless? This stock controlled by shorts?

2021-06-21

Can Tesla sustain its profitability and maintain its market position? Traditional car makers are not resting on their laurels.

Tesla’s Profitability and the Surprising Thing That Could Threaten It<blockquote>特斯拉的盈利能力以及可能威胁它的令人惊讶的事情</blockquote>

2021-12-03

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ revenue growth slowing, affected by stay home trend during covid, late joiner to online shopping, lack of progress in digital banking. Expected to go low. Have to be patient for this

2021-06-23

It's still a race to zero interest rate. We have been hoodwinked by Powell.

The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储，第一部分：他们不能加息</blockquote>

2021-06-23

Diamond hands 👐

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-15

It's really a junk boat....

Royal Caribbean is issuing $650 million of five-year junk bonds<blockquote>皇家加勒比正在发行6.5亿美元的五年期垃圾债券</blockquote>

2021-12-10

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ CEO Anthony Tan seems more interested to grow his asset base by adding a gcb, instead of growing profits and shareholder returns.

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 href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$</a>Customer concentration risk. Weak bargaining power. Need to spread the eggs fast or gather more and better quality eggs. Else slide will continue....","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$</a>Customer concentration risk. Weak bargaining power. Need to spread the eggs fast or gather more and better quality eggs. Else slide will continue....","text":"$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$Customer concentration risk. Weak bargaining power. Need to spread the eggs fast or gather more and better quality eggs. Else slide will continue....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638637919","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2003,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638892078,"gmtCreate":1645164918293,"gmtModify":1645167660092,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554975362733798","idStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Article on the government&nbsp;business.Palantir: Achieving AI Supremacy With The Government Helphttps://seekingalpha.com/article/4487897-palantir-ai-supremacy-with-government-help","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Article on the government&nbsp;business.Palantir: Achieving AI Supremacy With The Government Helphttps://seekingalpha.com/article/4487897-palantir-ai-supremacy-with-government-help","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Article on the government business.Palantir: Achieving AI Supremacy With The Government Helphttps://seekingalpha.com/article/4487897-palantir-ai-supremacy-with-government-help","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638892078","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630706291,"gmtCreate":1643035617921,"gmtModify":1643035818159,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554975362733798","idStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>https://electrek.co/2022/01/24/leaked-photos-show-new-tesla-cybertruck-design-with-no-door-handles-removable-wheel-covers/","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>https://electrek.co/2022/01/24/leaked-photos-show-new-tesla-cybertruck-design-with-no-door-handles-removable-wheel-covers/","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$https://electrek.co/2022/01/24/leaked-photos-show-new-tesla-cybertruck-design-with-no-door-handles-removable-wheel-covers/","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630706291","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":697963748,"gmtCreate":1642216073673,"gmtModify":1642216073850,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554975362733798","idStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Seems like anyone can just post a figure to affect the stock. Let me do it too. USD18 by end of next trading day...&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Seems like anyone can just post a figure to affect the stock. Let me do it too. USD18 by end of next trading day...&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Seems like anyone can just post a figure to affect the stock. Let me do it too. USD18 by end of next trading day...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697963748","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602760944,"gmtCreate":1639069330169,"gmtModify":1639069330289,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554975362733798","idStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 👍🏻","listText":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 👍🏻","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602760944","repostId":"2190660469","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2078,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602780814,"gmtCreate":1639067106753,"gmtModify":1639067575523,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554975362733798","idStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$</a>&nbsp;CEO&nbsp;Anthony Tan seems more interested to grow his asset base by adding a gcb, instead of growing profits and&nbsp;shareholder returns.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$</a>&nbsp;CEO&nbsp;Anthony Tan seems more interested to grow his asset base by adding a gcb, instead of growing profits and&nbsp;shareholder returns.&nbsp;","text":"$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ CEO Anthony Tan seems more interested to grow his asset base by adding a gcb, instead of growing profits and shareholder returns.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602780814","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606245602,"gmtCreate":1638888752728,"gmtModify":1638889008663,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554975362733798","idStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a>https://www.barrons.com/articles/twitter-stock-pick-ceo-51638548530","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a>https://www.barrons.com/articles/twitter-stock-pick-ceo-51638548530","text":"$Twitter(TWTR)$https://www.barrons.com/articles/twitter-stock-pick-ceo-51638548530","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606245602","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606266534,"gmtCreate":1638886699154,"gmtModify":1638886938397,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554975362733798","idStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>https://finance.yahoo.com/news/german-chip-chemical-supplier-spend-120000764.html?guccounter=1","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>https://finance.yahoo.com/news/german-chip-chemical-supplier-spend-120000764.html?guccounter=1","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$https://finance.yahoo.com/news/german-chip-chemical-supplier-spend-120000764.html?guccounter=1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606266534","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601734282,"gmtCreate":1638565872485,"gmtModify":1638565901462,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554975362733798","idStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Poor Sister Cathie, all of the stocks in Wood's Ark Innovation fund are in a bear market except 2. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/03/all-of-the-stocks-in-cathie-woods-ark-innovation-fund-are-in-a-bear-market-except-2.htmlNew ETF bets against Cathie Wood's flagship ARK strategy http://citywireusa.com/professional-buyer/news/new-etf-bets-against-cathie-woods-flagship-ark-strategy/a1537669&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Poor Sister Cathie, all of the stocks in Wood's Ark Innovation fund are in a bear market except 2. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/03/all-of-the-stocks-in-cathie-woods-ark-innovation-fund-are-in-a-bear-market-except-2.htmlNew ETF bets against Cathie Wood's flagship ARK strategy http://citywireusa.com/professional-buyer/news/new-etf-bets-against-cathie-woods-flagship-ark-strategy/a1537669&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Poor Sister Cathie, all of the stocks in Wood's Ark Innovation fund are in a bear market except 2. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/03/all-of-the-stocks-in-cathie-woods-ark-innovation-fund-are-in-a-bear-market-except-2.htmlNew ETF bets against Cathie Wood's flagship ARK strategy http://citywireusa.com/professional-buyer/news/new-etf-bets-against-cathie-woods-flagship-ark-strategy/a1537669","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601734282","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2856,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601468355,"gmtCreate":1638547834303,"gmtModify":1638548123801,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554975362733798","idStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a>&nbsp;is this stock manipulated by sister cathie's tests? https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/cathie-wood-testing-risky-shorting-strategy-like-ark-on-steroids-2021-11","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a>&nbsp;is this stock manipulated by sister cathie's tests? https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/cathie-wood-testing-risky-shorting-strategy-like-ark-on-steroids-2021-11","text":"$Twitter(TWTR)$ is this stock manipulated by sister cathie's tests? https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/cathie-wood-testing-risky-shorting-strategy-like-ark-on-steroids-2021-11","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601468355","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601484660,"gmtCreate":1638547506099,"gmtModify":1638547786013,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554975362733798","idStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/cathie-wood-testing-risky-shorting-strategy-like-ark-on-steroids-2021-11Is the volatility part of her strategy under test?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/cathie-wood-testing-risky-shorting-strategy-like-ark-on-steroids-2021-11Is the volatility part of her strategy under test?&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/cathie-wood-testing-risky-shorting-strategy-like-ark-on-steroids-2021-11Is the volatility part of her strategy under test?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601484660","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601433700,"gmtCreate":1638545791120,"gmtModify":1638545937317,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554975362733798","idStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>what's the news that moved this&nbsp;today? Why is it shorted down again when the mkt is flat or up? Has the coy fundamentals chged? All the good coy news are useless? This stock controlled by shorts?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>what's the news that moved this&nbsp;today? Why is it shorted down again when the mkt is flat or up? Has the coy fundamentals chged? All the good coy news are useless? This stock controlled by shorts?&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$what's the news that moved this today? Why is it shorted down again when the mkt is flat or up? Has the coy fundamentals chged? All the good coy news are useless? This stock controlled by shorts?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601433700","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":972,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601497543,"gmtCreate":1638545531615,"gmtModify":1638545531678,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554975362733798","idStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a>&nbsp;what's the news today? Why is it shorted down again when the mkt is flat or up? Has the coy fundamentals chged?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a>&nbsp;what's the news today? Why is it shorted down again when the mkt is flat or up? Has the coy fundamentals chged?&nbsp;","text":"$Twitter(TWTR)$ what's the news today? Why is it shorted down again when the mkt is flat or up? Has the coy fundamentals chged?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601497543","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601339021,"gmtCreate":1638490081771,"gmtModify":1638490081845,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554975362733798","idStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a>&nbsp;sister cathie needs to work&nbsp;on this fast. Even post mkt got shortselling. Unless she is part of it....&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a>&nbsp;sister cathie needs to work&nbsp;on this fast. Even post mkt got shortselling. Unless she is part of it....&nbsp;","text":"$Twitter(TWTR)$ sister cathie needs to work on this fast. Even post mkt got shortselling. Unless she is part of it....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601339021","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601950581,"gmtCreate":1638486579861,"gmtModify":1638486624522,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554975362733798","idStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a>&nbsp;a lot of shortselling. We should band together to squeeze the shortseller(s) out. Buy....&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a>&nbsp;a lot of shortselling. We should band together to squeeze the shortseller(s) out. Buy....&nbsp;","text":"$Twitter(TWTR)$ a lot of shortselling. We should band together to squeeze the shortseller(s) out. Buy....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601950581","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601921036,"gmtCreate":1638485738976,"gmtModify":1638485738976,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554975362733798","idStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$</a>&nbsp;revenue&nbsp;growth slowing, affected by stay home trend during covid,&nbsp;late joiner to online shopping, lack of progress in digital banking. Expected to go&nbsp;low.&nbsp;Have to be patient for this","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$</a>&nbsp;revenue&nbsp;growth slowing, affected by stay home trend during covid,&nbsp;late joiner to online shopping, lack of progress in digital banking. Expected to go&nbsp;low.&nbsp;Have to be patient for this","text":"$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ revenue growth slowing, affected by stay home trend during covid, late joiner to online shopping, lack of progress in digital banking. Expected to go low. Have to be patient for this","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601921036","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601964723,"gmtCreate":1638485321919,"gmtModify":1638485322031,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554975362733798","idStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;There's some heavy shortselling. We need to band together and squeeze the shortsellers out. Spread the word and buy....&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;There's some heavy shortselling. We need to band together and squeeze the shortsellers out. Spread the word and buy....&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ There's some heavy shortselling. We need to band together and squeeze the shortsellers out. Spread the word and buy....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601964723","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":831897583,"gmtCreate":1629298686342,"gmtModify":1631883992537,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554975362733798","idStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla is building a great infrastructure ecosystem for the future. Hope they successfully bring up the EV market.&nbsp;","listText":"Tesla is building a great infrastructure ecosystem for the future. Hope they successfully bring up the EV market.&nbsp;","text":"Tesla is building a great infrastructure ecosystem for the future. Hope they successfully bring up the EV market.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831897583","repostId":"1106203958","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831153087,"gmtCreate":1629296194449,"gmtModify":1631889861489,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554975362733798","idStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Would you agree with this? Personally, I think although&nbsp;autopilot is not ready for prime time,&nbsp;this will not stop the growth&nbsp;of EVs and progress of autopilot for long.&nbsp;","listText":"Would you agree with this? Personally, I think although&nbsp;autopilot is not ready for prime time,&nbsp;this will not stop the growth&nbsp;of EVs and progress of autopilot for long.&nbsp;","text":"Would you agree with this? Personally, I think although autopilot is not ready for prime time, this will not stop the growth of EVs and progress of autopilot for long.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831153087","repostId":"839446587","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":839446587,"gmtCreate":1629177160446,"gmtModify":1716217850775,"author":{"id":"3502767768442965","authorId":"3502767768442965","name":"话题虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d418c2def5dc1d094b03270b450f71ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3502767768442965","idStr":"3502767768442965"},"themes":[],"title":"蔚来、小鹏、特斯拉都出事了！你还信自动驾驶吗？","htmlText":"最近，自动驾驶站上了风口浪尖。 起因是一位年仅31岁，正处在事业上升期的企业家，因启驾驶蔚来ES8，启用NOP（领航辅助驾驶系统），发生车祸身亡。这样一位年仅31岁的高净值人物，就这样匆匆离去，不禁令人感到惋惜。 现在网络上争论的焦点在于，他是否将蔚来的NOP（领航辅助驾驶系统）完全当成了自动驾驶系统，而导致的车祸。以及，蔚来是否在对NOP系统有过度宣传，误导了用户。 值得一提的是，不久前的业绩电话会上，李斌刚刚宣传： 蔚来的自动驾驶工作进展顺利，将全面超越市场主流自动驾驶系统的体验， 引领行业自动驾驶技术的发展。 不久前，某蔚来认证副总裁也表达了这优越的体验：“在自动辅助驾驶帮助下，放心地边吃东西边开。” 直到事故发生，大家才发现，这体验是要命的。 于是，蔚来工作人员连夜紧急告知媒体：“蔚来的车还没有自动驾驶能力……” 对自动驾驶过度宣传的不只有蔚来，还有小鹏。 几天前，一位想买小鹏G3的客户，在试驾途中，销售向其“狂吹小鹏ACC功能（自适应巡航）”，说“放心不需要刹车的，都是自动的”。但没得瑟几分钟，就以70公里/小时的速度追尾了。好在人没事，不过现场就很尴尬了。 当然，对于自动驾驶过度宣传的鼻祖其实是特斯拉。 8月16日，美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）宣布： 对特斯拉自动驾驶系统启动正式调查。 据NHTSA统计： 自2018年以来，已确认了11起与特斯拉自动辅助驾驶系统（Autopilot）或“交通感知巡航控制”（TACC）系统有关的车祸。 另有多家媒体指出，这些事故的原因，与特斯拉和马斯克对自动驾驶的过度包装不无关系，类似的事故在中国也频频发生。 确实如此，小话的一个朋友，自从买了特斯拉后，尝尝在朋友圈晒自动驾驶的体验，我真的很担心她： 造车新势力们最喜欢给自己贴上“智能”的标签，这样已区分自己和传统车企的区别。 智能的重中之重就是【自动驾驶】，所以","listText":"最近，自动驾驶站上了风口浪尖。 起因是一位年仅31岁，正处在事业上升期的企业家，因启驾驶蔚来ES8，启用NOP（领航辅助驾驶系统），发生车祸身亡。这样一位年仅31岁的高净值人物，就这样匆匆离去，不禁令人感到惋惜。 现在网络上争论的焦点在于，他是否将蔚来的NOP（领航辅助驾驶系统）完全当成了自动驾驶系统，而导致的车祸。以及，蔚来是否在对NOP系统有过度宣传，误导了用户。 值得一提的是，不久前的业绩电话会上，李斌刚刚宣传： 蔚来的自动驾驶工作进展顺利，将全面超越市场主流自动驾驶系统的体验， 引领行业自动驾驶技术的发展。 不久前，某蔚来认证副总裁也表达了这优越的体验：“在自动辅助驾驶帮助下，放心地边吃东西边开。” 直到事故发生，大家才发现，这体验是要命的。 于是，蔚来工作人员连夜紧急告知媒体：“蔚来的车还没有自动驾驶能力……” 对自动驾驶过度宣传的不只有蔚来，还有小鹏。 几天前，一位想买小鹏G3的客户，在试驾途中，销售向其“狂吹小鹏ACC功能（自适应巡航）”，说“放心不需要刹车的，都是自动的”。但没得瑟几分钟，就以70公里/小时的速度追尾了。好在人没事，不过现场就很尴尬了。 当然，对于自动驾驶过度宣传的鼻祖其实是特斯拉。 8月16日，美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）宣布： 对特斯拉自动驾驶系统启动正式调查。 据NHTSA统计： 自2018年以来，已确认了11起与特斯拉自动辅助驾驶系统（Autopilot）或“交通感知巡航控制”（TACC）系统有关的车祸。 另有多家媒体指出，这些事故的原因，与特斯拉和马斯克对自动驾驶的过度包装不无关系，类似的事故在中国也频频发生。 确实如此，小话的一个朋友，自从买了特斯拉后，尝尝在朋友圈晒自动驾驶的体验，我真的很担心她： 造车新势力们最喜欢给自己贴上“智能”的标签，这样已区分自己和传统车企的区别。 智能的重中之重就是【自动驾驶】，所以","text":"最近，自动驾驶站上了风口浪尖。 起因是一位年仅31岁，正处在事业上升期的企业家，因启驾驶蔚来ES8，启用NOP（领航辅助驾驶系统），发生车祸身亡。这样一位年仅31岁的高净值人物，就这样匆匆离去，不禁令人感到惋惜。 现在网络上争论的焦点在于，他是否将蔚来的NOP（领航辅助驾驶系统）完全当成了自动驾驶系统，而导致的车祸。以及，蔚来是否在对NOP系统有过度宣传，误导了用户。 值得一提的是，不久前的业绩电话会上，李斌刚刚宣传： 蔚来的自动驾驶工作进展顺利，将全面超越市场主流自动驾驶系统的体验， 引领行业自动驾驶技术的发展。 不久前，某蔚来认证副总裁也表达了这优越的体验：“在自动辅助驾驶帮助下，放心地边吃东西边开。” 直到事故发生，大家才发现，这体验是要命的。 于是，蔚来工作人员连夜紧急告知媒体：“蔚来的车还没有自动驾驶能力……” 对自动驾驶过度宣传的不只有蔚来，还有小鹏。 几天前，一位想买小鹏G3的客户，在试驾途中，销售向其“狂吹小鹏ACC功能（自适应巡航）”，说“放心不需要刹车的，都是自动的”。但没得瑟几分钟，就以70公里/小时的速度追尾了。好在人没事，不过现场就很尴尬了。 当然，对于自动驾驶过度宣传的鼻祖其实是特斯拉。 8月16日，美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）宣布： 对特斯拉自动驾驶系统启动正式调查。 据NHTSA统计： 自2018年以来，已确认了11起与特斯拉自动辅助驾驶系统（Autopilot）或“交通感知巡航控制”（TACC）系统有关的车祸。 另有多家媒体指出，这些事故的原因，与特斯拉和马斯克对自动驾驶的过度包装不无关系，类似的事故在中国也频频发生。 确实如此，小话的一个朋友，自从买了特斯拉后，尝尝在朋友圈晒自动驾驶的体验，我真的很担心她： 造车新势力们最喜欢给自己贴上“智能”的标签，这样已区分自己和传统车企的区别。 智能的重中之重就是【自动驾驶】，所以","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a6ee4065093ed68ac682516170c3efc","width":"742","height":"631"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a0d74f0bb73f16b875ecb03f5cd3bd4","width":"1080","height":"739"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5074f3136ade051126f207f466e64ca","width":"650","height":"440"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839446587","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121809648,"gmtCreate":1624457749384,"gmtModify":1631889861501,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554975362733798","idStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It's still a race to zero interest rate. We have been hoodwinked by Powell.&nbsp;","listText":"It's still a race to zero interest rate. We have been hoodwinked by Powell.&nbsp;","text":"It's still a race to zero interest rate. We have been hoodwinked by Powell.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121809648","repostId":"1191722749","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191722749","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624455982,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191722749?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 21:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储，第一部分：他们不能加息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191722749","media":"zerohedge","summary":"3 Key Takeaways\n\nThe US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt\nMuch of the debt is short-term, mak","content":"<p><b>3 Key Takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3个要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>The US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt</li>  <li>Much of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates</li>  <li>Higher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget</li> </ol> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>美国政府债务超过28万亿美元</li><li>大部分债务都是短期的，这使得它对利率上升格外敏感</li><li>更高的利率将立即开始给联邦预算带来压力</li></ol><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> The US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.</p><p><blockquote>美国有超过28万亿美元的债务，并且还在以惊人的速度增长。甚至在新冠肺炎之前，这个问题就变得棘手了。具有讽刺意味的是，尽管去年增加了4T多美元的债务，但疫情可能给了美国政府短期的喘息机会，因为它为美联储将利率降至零开了绿灯。</blockquote></p><p> First and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a&nbsp;<b>$4.5T loan at 0% interest</b>&nbsp;in 15 months!</p><p><blockquote>首先，这减轻了财政部的压力，因为它以较低的利率为不断膨胀的未偿短期债务进行了再融资。然而，随着美联储吸收了自去年3月以来发行的90%以上的长期债务，情况更加缓解。这使得私人市场有更多的空间来购买新发行的短期国库券。因为美联储将利息收入返还给财政部，而且由于国库券的利率为0%，这实际上给了财政部一个<b>$4.5 T 0%利息贷款</b>15个月后！</blockquote></p><p> While this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这听起来是一笔很大的交易，但它伴随着重大风险，现在已经将美联储置于一个盒子里。这将在两篇文章中详细解释。第1部分将解释为什么美联储不能再加息，第2部分将展示美联储如何无法缩减，甚至可能需要增加国债购买，以维持对收益率曲线长端的控制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>$28 Trillion and Growing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>28万亿美元且不断增长</b></blockquote></p><p> The US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府不能停止花钱。现在的支出远远超过了税收收入。美国经济继续经历名义增长，这增加了联邦税收收入，但联邦支出增长速度要快得多。下图1显示了这一明显趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5576e9901f1f8310629d45af16836a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> Excess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.</p><p><blockquote>过度支出必须用债务来支付。这种大规模的过度支出导致联邦政府借贷激增，导致未偿债务总额超过28T美元。见下图2。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed345b06ec4a35726fe7d9847937cf34\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> For anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great&nbsp;visual. Now, multiply that by 28!</p><p><blockquote>对于任何努力理解1T美元规模的人来说，请看看这个伟大的视觉效果。现在，把它乘以28！</blockquote></p><p> For most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The&nbsp;petro-dollar&nbsp;should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.</p><p><blockquote>对于大多数政府来说，这将是不可持续的，因为利率将会上升。这给借款人带来了降低支出的压力。美国政府受益于大多数政府所不具备的三大优势。首先，它拥有发行全球储备货币的过高特权（目前），这对美元的需求远远超过其他情况。石油美元应该有自己的专门文章，所以在这个分析中将跳过。</blockquote></p><p> It is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是要强调另外两个关键事实，这两个事实使得支出和借贷继续有增无减。它已经能够从社会保障信托基金借款，美联储近年来吸收了很大一部分债务发行。这不仅相当于11T美元的无息贷款（因为所有利息支付都返还给财政部），而且还阻止了私人市场吸收所有新的债务发行，从而保持较低的利率。如下图3所示，自2010年1月以来，私人市场“只”吸收了14.5吨发行的9T美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dee6e735c0a3c1421eb321c0eae4b54\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov和https://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></blockquote></p><p> Since Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (<i>Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt</i>). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!</p><p><blockquote>自2020年1月以来，数字更加严峻。财政部已发行4.5 T美元，其中美联储已发行2.6 T美元（<i>注：美联储资产负债表已扩大超过4T美元，但并非全部都是国债</i>).深入研究这些数字就会发现，美联储对长期债券的兴趣更大。由于短期利率为0%，财政部可以向私营部门出售国库券，但仍有无息贷款。因此，美联储吸收财政部发行的几乎所有（约90%）长期债务以保持低利息支付至关重要！</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89bf299c6c054e65d3317aa72d0f686a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>到目前为止，财政部一直避免支付更高的利息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Zooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds &gt;10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.</p><p><blockquote>缩小范围，下面的三张图表显示了为什么过去一年的演习如此重要。再看看美国的债务负担，这次是按工具分类的。不可销售的是政府欠自己的债务，票据代表1-10年期限，票据少于1年，债券&gt;10年。下面的两张图表显示了债务的绝对增长以及债务构成的变化。自2008年以来，票据经历了最大的增长，从占未偿总额的25%增加到42%。非市场则相反，由于社会保障信托基金不再是借款来源，从45%萎缩至25%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a144f0f9250c364637205e8bd0178bc0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1851784731b81544c30c5338624a03\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> It is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是上述国库券的增长。票据是财政部面临的最高风险，因为更高的利率将在几个月内影响票据，因此值得注意的是，在2015年上一次加息周期中，票据仅占1.4 T美元，但现在占4.3 T美元。这意味着每加息0.25%几乎会立即增加100亿美元的联邦支出。下图清楚地显示了上一个加息周期的影响。粉红线显示了美联储加息周期后票据如何达到接近2.25%的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> If the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储试图以类似的方式加息，它将立即在联邦支出中增加1000亿美元，仅用于国库券的到期利息。在美联储将资产负债表缩减至1T美元（不再有无息贷款）并将利率提高至4%的情况下，财政部将额外承担160B美元的国库券利率和高达290B美元的国库券利率！这不会考虑在此期间增加的任何新债务，现在仅利息支付就包括每年额外的0.5 T美元！</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04501c54f465fba412ffbf77b81a559f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.</p><p><blockquote>下图更清楚地显示了近20年来利率下降如何使债务支付保持相对稳定的影响。图表显示了平均加权利率和年化每月利息支付。橙色线（平均加权利率）与上面看到的债务增长直接相反。在上一个利率紧缩周期中，图表显示了高利率增加债务负担的速度（$150B）。美联储拥有的国库券很少（$320B），因此这些利息支付不会返还给财政部。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c859933a1e991d3e6ba191ccb6a7609e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> One final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.</p><p><blockquote>最后一张要考虑的图表。这些利息支付与国税局征收的税收收入相比如何？在这种背景下，2015年加息周期对债务支付的影响有多大就变得非常清楚了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585708ace254d0b79ecddcc77c9c8ca0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>包装</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).</p><p><blockquote>对于任何密切关注美国债务状况或关注金融市场的人来说，这篇文章中的任何内容都不应该感到惊讶。图表和图形试图显示趋势，并把硬数字放在大多数人已经知道的轶事背后。这篇文章甚至没有谈到更高的利率会对房地产市场、公司债务市场和消费者债务市场造成多大的破坏性。相反，它只关注财政部，而财政部恰好由美联储前主席（珍妮特·耶伦）掌管。</blockquote></p><p> None of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury&nbsp;<i>relief</i>&nbsp;from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.<b>Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.</b>If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,<b>even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.</b>That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!</p><p><blockquote>这些数学计算都不太复杂，所有数据都可以在财政部和美联储网站上免费获得。这就引出了一个问题，美联储是否意识到利率不能上升，或者他们只是看着后视镜，假设加息至2.25%将类似于2015年，而2015年“只是”被新冠肺炎脱轨？重申一下，利率的下降给了财政部<i>宽慰</i>来自较高的利息支付。下一次，由于债务负担的增加，他们可能连2%的一半都达不到。<b>不幸的是，对于美联储来说，他们的盒子比大多数人意识到的要紧。</b>如果美联储现在还没想明白，<b>即使在加息失败之前，他们也无法缩减量化宽松（债务货币化），更不用说缩表了，而不会产生严重后果。</b>这些数据将在第2部分中进行回顾。敬请期待！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储，第一部分：他们不能加息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储，第一部分：他们不能加息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 21:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>3 Key Takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3个要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>The US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt</li>  <li>Much of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates</li>  <li>Higher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget</li> </ol> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>美国政府债务超过28万亿美元</li><li>大部分债务都是短期的，这使得它对利率上升格外敏感</li><li>更高的利率将立即开始给联邦预算带来压力</li></ol><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> The US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.</p><p><blockquote>美国有超过28万亿美元的债务，并且还在以惊人的速度增长。甚至在新冠肺炎之前，这个问题就变得棘手了。具有讽刺意味的是，尽管去年增加了4T多美元的债务，但疫情可能给了美国政府短期的喘息机会，因为它为美联储将利率降至零开了绿灯。</blockquote></p><p> First and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a&nbsp;<b>$4.5T loan at 0% interest</b>&nbsp;in 15 months!</p><p><blockquote>首先，这减轻了财政部的压力，因为它以较低的利率为不断膨胀的未偿短期债务进行了再融资。然而，随着美联储吸收了自去年3月以来发行的90%以上的长期债务，情况更加缓解。这使得私人市场有更多的空间来购买新发行的短期国库券。因为美联储将利息收入返还给财政部，而且由于国库券的利率为0%，这实际上给了财政部一个<b>$4.5 T 0%利息贷款</b>15个月后！</blockquote></p><p> While this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这听起来是一笔很大的交易，但它伴随着重大风险，现在已经将美联储置于一个盒子里。这将在两篇文章中详细解释。第1部分将解释为什么美联储不能再加息，第2部分将展示美联储如何无法缩减，甚至可能需要增加国债购买，以维持对收益率曲线长端的控制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>$28 Trillion and Growing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>28万亿美元且不断增长</b></blockquote></p><p> The US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府不能停止花钱。现在的支出远远超过了税收收入。美国经济继续经历名义增长，这增加了联邦税收收入，但联邦支出增长速度要快得多。下图1显示了这一明显趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5576e9901f1f8310629d45af16836a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> Excess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.</p><p><blockquote>过度支出必须用债务来支付。这种大规模的过度支出导致联邦政府借贷激增，导致未偿债务总额超过28T美元。见下图2。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed345b06ec4a35726fe7d9847937cf34\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> For anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great&nbsp;visual. Now, multiply that by 28!</p><p><blockquote>对于任何努力理解1T美元规模的人来说，请看看这个伟大的视觉效果。现在，把它乘以28！</blockquote></p><p> For most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The&nbsp;petro-dollar&nbsp;should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.</p><p><blockquote>对于大多数政府来说，这将是不可持续的，因为利率将会上升。这给借款人带来了降低支出的压力。美国政府受益于大多数政府所不具备的三大优势。首先，它拥有发行全球储备货币的过高特权（目前），这对美元的需求远远超过其他情况。石油美元应该有自己的专门文章，所以在这个分析中将跳过。</blockquote></p><p> It is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是要强调另外两个关键事实，这两个事实使得支出和借贷继续有增无减。它已经能够从社会保障信托基金借款，美联储近年来吸收了很大一部分债务发行。这不仅相当于11T美元的无息贷款（因为所有利息支付都返还给财政部），而且还阻止了私人市场吸收所有新的债务发行，从而保持较低的利率。如下图3所示，自2010年1月以来，私人市场“只”吸收了14.5吨发行的9T美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dee6e735c0a3c1421eb321c0eae4b54\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov和https://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></blockquote></p><p> Since Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (<i>Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt</i>). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!</p><p><blockquote>自2020年1月以来，数字更加严峻。财政部已发行4.5 T美元，其中美联储已发行2.6 T美元（<i>注：美联储资产负债表已扩大超过4T美元，但并非全部都是国债</i>).深入研究这些数字就会发现，美联储对长期债券的兴趣更大。由于短期利率为0%，财政部可以向私营部门出售国库券，但仍有无息贷款。因此，美联储吸收财政部发行的几乎所有（约90%）长期债务以保持低利息支付至关重要！</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89bf299c6c054e65d3317aa72d0f686a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>到目前为止，财政部一直避免支付更高的利息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Zooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds &gt;10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.</p><p><blockquote>缩小范围，下面的三张图表显示了为什么过去一年的演习如此重要。再看看美国的债务负担，这次是按工具分类的。不可销售的是政府欠自己的债务，票据代表1-10年期限，票据少于1年，债券&gt;10年。下面的两张图表显示了债务的绝对增长以及债务构成的变化。自2008年以来，票据经历了最大的增长，从占未偿总额的25%增加到42%。非市场则相反，由于社会保障信托基金不再是借款来源，从45%萎缩至25%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a144f0f9250c364637205e8bd0178bc0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1851784731b81544c30c5338624a03\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> It is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是上述国库券的增长。票据是财政部面临的最高风险，因为更高的利率将在几个月内影响票据，因此值得注意的是，在2015年上一次加息周期中，票据仅占1.4 T美元，但现在占4.3 T美元。这意味着每加息0.25%几乎会立即增加100亿美元的联邦支出。下图清楚地显示了上一个加息周期的影响。粉红线显示了美联储加息周期后票据如何达到接近2.25%的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> If the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储试图以类似的方式加息，它将立即在联邦支出中增加1000亿美元，仅用于国库券的到期利息。在美联储将资产负债表缩减至1T美元（不再有无息贷款）并将利率提高至4%的情况下，财政部将额外承担160B美元的国库券利率和高达290B美元的国库券利率！这不会考虑在此期间增加的任何新债务，现在仅利息支付就包括每年额外的0.5 T美元！</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04501c54f465fba412ffbf77b81a559f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.</p><p><blockquote>下图更清楚地显示了近20年来利率下降如何使债务支付保持相对稳定的影响。图表显示了平均加权利率和年化每月利息支付。橙色线（平均加权利率）与上面看到的债务增长直接相反。在上一个利率紧缩周期中，图表显示了高利率增加债务负担的速度（$150B）。美联储拥有的国库券很少（$320B），因此这些利息支付不会返还给财政部。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c859933a1e991d3e6ba191ccb6a7609e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> One final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.</p><p><blockquote>最后一张要考虑的图表。这些利息支付与国税局征收的税收收入相比如何？在这种背景下，2015年加息周期对债务支付的影响有多大就变得非常清楚了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585708ace254d0b79ecddcc77c9c8ca0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>包装</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).</p><p><blockquote>对于任何密切关注美国债务状况或关注金融市场的人来说，这篇文章中的任何内容都不应该感到惊讶。图表和图形试图显示趋势，并把硬数字放在大多数人已经知道的轶事背后。这篇文章甚至没有谈到更高的利率会对房地产市场、公司债务市场和消费者债务市场造成多大的破坏性。相反，它只关注财政部，而财政部恰好由美联储前主席（珍妮特·耶伦）掌管。</blockquote></p><p> None of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury&nbsp;<i>relief</i>&nbsp;from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.<b>Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.</b>If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,<b>even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.</b>That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!</p><p><blockquote>这些数学计算都不太复杂，所有数据都可以在财政部和美联储网站上免费获得。这就引出了一个问题，美联储是否意识到利率不能上升，或者他们只是看着后视镜，假设加息至2.25%将类似于2015年，而2015年“只是”被新冠肺炎脱轨？重申一下，利率的下降给了财政部<i>宽慰</i>来自较高的利息支付。下一次，由于债务负担的增加，他们可能连2%的一半都达不到。<b>不幸的是，对于美联储来说，他们的盒子比大多数人意识到的要紧。</b>如果美联储现在还没想明白，<b>即使在加息失败之前，他们也无法缩减量化宽松（债务货币化），更不用说缩表了，而不会产生严重后果。</b>这些数据将在第2部分中进行回顾。敬请期待！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-box-part-1-they-cannot-raise-interest-rates\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-box-part-1-they-cannot-raise-interest-rates","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191722749","content_text":"3 Key Takeaways\n\nThe US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt\nMuch of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates\nHigher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget\n\nIntroduction\nThe US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.\nFirst and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a $4.5T loan at 0% interest in 15 months!\nWhile this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.\n$28 Trillion and Growing\nThe US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nExcess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nFor anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great visual. Now, multiply that by 28!\nFor most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The petro-dollar should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.\nIt is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/\nSince Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nThe Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments\nZooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds >10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nIt is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.\nIf the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nThe chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nOne final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nWrapping Up\nNothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).\nNone of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury relief from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":601964723,"gmtCreate":1638485321919,"gmtModify":1638485322031,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554975362733798","authorIdStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;There's some heavy shortselling. We need to band together and squeeze the shortsellers out. Spread the word and buy....&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;There's some heavy shortselling. We need to band together and squeeze the shortsellers out. Spread the word and buy....&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ There's some heavy shortselling. We need to band together and squeeze the shortsellers out. Spread the word and buy....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601964723","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":121149028,"gmtCreate":1624457403364,"gmtModify":1631884323492,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554975362733798","authorIdStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Elon Musk and Tesla tends to hype things. Hope Tesla&nbsp;get their 4680 batteries right eventually.","listText":"Elon Musk and Tesla tends to hype things. Hope Tesla&nbsp;get their 4680 batteries right eventually.","text":"Elon Musk and Tesla tends to hype things. Hope Tesla get their 4680 batteries right eventually.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121149028","repostId":"1145825451","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":601734282,"gmtCreate":1638565872485,"gmtModify":1638565901462,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554975362733798","authorIdStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Poor Sister Cathie, all of the stocks in Wood's Ark Innovation fund are in a bear market except 2. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/03/all-of-the-stocks-in-cathie-woods-ark-innovation-fund-are-in-a-bear-market-except-2.htmlNew ETF bets against Cathie Wood's flagship ARK strategy http://citywireusa.com/professional-buyer/news/new-etf-bets-against-cathie-woods-flagship-ark-strategy/a1537669&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Poor Sister Cathie, all of the stocks in Wood's Ark Innovation fund are in a bear market except 2. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/03/all-of-the-stocks-in-cathie-woods-ark-innovation-fund-are-in-a-bear-market-except-2.htmlNew ETF bets against Cathie Wood's flagship ARK strategy http://citywireusa.com/professional-buyer/news/new-etf-bets-against-cathie-woods-flagship-ark-strategy/a1537669&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Poor Sister Cathie, all of the stocks in Wood's Ark Innovation fund are in a bear market except 2. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/03/all-of-the-stocks-in-cathie-woods-ark-innovation-fund-are-in-a-bear-market-except-2.htmlNew ETF bets against Cathie Wood's flagship ARK strategy http://citywireusa.com/professional-buyer/news/new-etf-bets-against-cathie-woods-flagship-ark-strategy/a1537669","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601734282","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2856,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601433700,"gmtCreate":1638545791120,"gmtModify":1638545937317,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554975362733798","authorIdStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>what's the news that moved this&nbsp;today? Why is it shorted down again when the mkt is flat or up? Has the coy fundamentals chged? All the good coy news are useless? This stock controlled by shorts?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>what's the news that moved this&nbsp;today? Why is it shorted down again when the mkt is flat or up? Has the coy fundamentals chged? All the good coy news are useless? This stock controlled by shorts?&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$what's the news that moved this today? Why is it shorted down again when the mkt is flat or up? Has the coy fundamentals chged? All the good coy news are useless? This stock controlled by shorts?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601433700","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":972,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":167432202,"gmtCreate":1624281517806,"gmtModify":1631889861565,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554975362733798","authorIdStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can Tesla sustain its profitability and maintain its market position? Traditional car makers are not resting on their laurels.&nbsp;","listText":"Can Tesla sustain its profitability and maintain its market position? Traditional car makers are not resting on their laurels.&nbsp;","text":"Can Tesla sustain its profitability and maintain its market position? Traditional car makers are not resting on their laurels.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167432202","repostId":"1100861051","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100861051","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624280482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100861051?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 21:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla’s Profitability and the Surprising Thing That Could Threaten It<blockquote>特斯拉的盈利能力以及可能威胁它的令人惊讶的事情</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100861051","media":"The Street","summary":"Rising competition in the electric vehicle space could not only put a crimp in Tesla’s growth rate, ","content":"<p>  Rising competition in the electric vehicle space could not only put a crimp in Tesla’s growth rate, but diminish a big source of income as well.  The explosion in electric vehicle (EV) demand has served to vindicate the vision of Tesla’s&nbsp;(<b>TSLA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;celebrity CEO Elon Musk. Indeed, the surge in demand for EVs has not only vindicated his foresight, but allowed his company to remain a market leader above late-coming competitors.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领域日益激烈的竞争不仅会抑制特斯拉的增长率，还会减少一大收入来源。电动汽车(EV)需求的爆炸式增长证明了特斯拉的愿景（<b>特斯拉</b>）-获取名人首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的报告。事实上，电动汽车需求的激增不仅证明了他的远见，也让他的公司保持了超越后来者竞争对手的市场领导者地位。</blockquote></p><p> However, while the company Musk leads as Technoking is no doubt a market leader, it has not solely cashed in by beating its competitors in terms of sales. Instead, a key to the company's recent turn to profitability has come from taking advantage of government incentives and selling the excess incentives it holds to these very same competitors. And now that many of these competitors are engaging more aggressively in EVs themselves, Tesla may soon find itself without many of these customers and, therefore, without a significant contributor to its profits.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管马斯克领导的Technoking公司无疑是市场领导者，但它并不仅仅通过在销售额上击败竞争对手来获利。相反，该公司最近扭亏为盈的关键来自于利用政府激励措施，并将其持有的多余激励措施出售给这些竞争对手。现在，许多竞争对手都在更积极地涉足电动汽车领域，特斯拉可能很快就会发现自己没有了许多这样的客户，因此也没有对其利润做出重大贡献。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Raking in the Regulatory Credits</b></p><p><blockquote><b>赚取监管信用</b></blockquote></p><p> The credits that Tesla has handsomely profited from are tradable credits offered by various governments around the world for zero-emission vehicles. The fact that they are tradable is crucial since this allows Tesla to sell the credits to other automakers who might not otherwise comply with emission standards without the use of these credits. The set-up allows Tesla to book the credits as purely additive to its top line, with the automakers buying these credits avoiding hefty fines from regulators.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉从中获得丰厚利润的积分是世界各国政府为零排放汽车提供的可交易积分。它们可交易的事实至关重要，因为这使得特斯拉可以将信用额出售给其他汽车制造商，如果不使用这些信用额，这些汽车制造商可能无法遵守排放标准。这种设置允许特斯拉将积分纯粹作为其营收的附加物，汽车制造商购买这些积分可以避免监管机构的巨额罚款。</blockquote></p><p> Per Tesla’s most recent 10-K filing, the company earned $1.58 billion from the sale of these credits in 2020, up from $594 million in the year prior and $419 million in 2018. The year-over -year jump notwithstanding, the credit sales might appear to be a paltry sum given the company’s $31.5 billion in total revenue in 2020. However, their nature as purely profit, in contrast to capital intensive auto manufacturing, means they have been a pivotal part of Tesla’s push towards profitability.</p><p><blockquote>根据特斯拉最近提交的10-K文件，该公司在2020年通过出售这些积分赚取了15.8亿美元，高于上一年的5.94亿美元和2018年的4.19亿美元。尽管同比增长，但考虑到该公司2020年315亿美元的总收入，信贷销售额似乎微不足道。然而，与资本密集型汽车制造业相比，它们纯粹是利润的性质意味着它们一直是特斯拉推动盈利的关键部分。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Tesla’s much-lauded $721 million profit in 2020, the very first profitable full year in its history, was clearly boosted over the top by the surge in regulatory credit sales. Had they remained consistent with the prior periods, the landmark year would have been left short of break-even, keeping up the company's trend of annual losses maintained since its inception.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，特斯拉2020年备受赞誉的7.21亿美元利润，这是其历史上第一个全年盈利的一年，显然是受到监管信贷销售激增的提振。如果它们与前几个时期保持一致，这一具有里程碑意义的一年将无法实现收支平衡，从而保持该公司自成立以来一直保持的年度亏损趋势。</blockquote></p><p> The trend has continued into 2021 as the company reported $518 million in revenues from credit salesin the first quarter, which boosted the company once again to a $438-million quarterly profit. While vehicle deliveries consistently catch the headlines, it's clear that the regulatory credits are buoying the automaker into the black.</p><p><blockquote>这一趋势一直持续到2021年，该公司报告第一季度信贷销售收入为5.18亿美元，这再次使该公司季度利润达到4.38亿美元。虽然汽车交付量不断成为头条新闻，但很明显，监管信贷正在帮助这家汽车制造商实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competition Cuts Into Cash Flow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争削减现金流</b></blockquote></p><p> The problem with the profit margin may be approaching faster than some have anticipated as well, with the increased entry of traditional automakers like Ford&nbsp;(<b>F</b>) -Get Report, General Motors&nbsp;(<b>GM</b>) -Get Report, and Stellantis STLA into the EV space.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特等传统汽车制造商的加入，利润率问题的解决速度可能也比一些人预期的要快（<b>F</b>)-获取报告，通用汽车(<b>GM</b>)-获取报告，Stellantis STLA进入电动汽车领域。</blockquote></p><p> While much of the focus revolves around these companies’ threat to Tesla’s core auto sales, the popularity of Tesla among its devoted fans might sustain it amidst the hard-charging competition. As such, the trajectory of its sales, while now threatened by competent competition, remains somewhat murky at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>虽然大部分焦点都围绕着这些公司对特斯拉核心汽车销售的威胁，但特斯拉在其忠实粉丝中的受欢迎程度可能会在激烈的竞争中维持其地位。因此，其销售轨迹虽然现在受到激烈竞争的威胁，但目前仍然有些模糊。</blockquote></p><p> The question of regulatory credit impact is much more straightforward. If Tesla’s competitors are producing their own electric vehicles and fewer ICE autos, they have no need to spend so substantially on buying credits from Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>监管信用影响的问题要简单得多。如果特斯拉的竞争对手生产自己的电动汽车并减少内燃机汽车，他们就没有必要花这么多钱从特斯拉购买积分。</blockquote></p><p> Per a Reuters report, Fiat Chrysler agreed to purchase $2.4 billion worth of emissions credits from Tesla from 2019 through 2021, likely accounting for a lion’s share of the roughly $2.2 billion recorded in total in credits sold in Tesla’s 2019 and 2020 10-K filings. However, after Fiat Chrysler merged with French automaker PSA Group in May to form Stellantis, this reliable revenue stream looks likely to fade.</p><p><blockquote>据路透社报道，菲亚特克莱斯勒同意在2019年至2021年期间从特斯拉购买价值24亿美元的排放信用额，这可能占特斯拉2019年和2020年10-K文件中出售的信用额总额约22亿美元的大部分。然而，在菲亚特克莱斯勒5月份与法国汽车制造商PSA集团合并成立Stellantis后，这一可靠的收入来源似乎可能会消失。</blockquote></p><p> \"With the electrical technology that PSA brought to Stellantis, we will autonomously meet carbon dioxide emission regulations as early as this year,\" Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares told French media after the merger. \"Thus, we will not need to call on European CO2 credits and [Fiat Chrysler] will no longer have to pool with Tesla or anyone.\"</p><p><blockquote>Stellantis首席执行官卡洛斯·塔瓦雷斯(Carlos Tavares)在合并后对法国媒体表示：“凭借PSA为Stellantis带来的电气技术，我们最早将在今年自主满足二氧化碳排放法规。”“因此，我们将不需要对欧洲二氧化碳信用额进行看涨期权，[菲亚特克莱斯勒]也将不再需要与特斯拉或任何人合作。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Already Anticipated?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>已经预料到了？</b></blockquote></p><p> To be sure, the looming threat of regulatory credit sales eroding is by no means a novel development. CFO Zachary Kirkhorn noted in a call with analysts in mid-2020 that “we don’t manage the business with the assumption that regulatory credits will contribute significantly to the future. Eventually this will reduce.”</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，监管信用销售侵蚀的迫在眉睫的威胁绝不是一个新的发展。首席财务官Zachary Kirkhorn在2020年年中与分析师举行的看涨期权中指出，“我们在管理业务时不会假设监管信贷将对未来做出重大贡献。最终这种情况会减少。”</blockquote></p><p> Kirkhorn’s focus on the core business, especially in terms of battery technology, rather than the regulatory credit sales, is bolstered by the thoughts of prominent Tesla bulls.</p><p><blockquote>柯克霍恩专注于核心业务，特别是在电池技术方面，而不是监管信贷销售，这得到了著名特斯拉多头思想的支持。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “We have owned Tesla for a decade and from day one we expected regulatory credits to go to zero within three years,” Jennison Associates analyst Owuraka Koney said. “They are comfortable without these regulatory credits and they make money when you exclude these credits and these non-recurring costs that they face.”</p><p><blockquote>Jennison Associates分析师Owuraka Koney表示：“我们拥有特斯拉已经十年了，从第一天起，我们就预计监管信用将在三年内降至零。”“他们在没有这些监管信贷的情况下也很舒服，当你排除这些信贷和他们面临的这些非经常性成本时，他们就能赚钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Koney cited Elon Musk’smassive compensation packagetied to the company's recent stock surges as a key non-recurring cost in this context. Further, Koney argued that the regulatory credit benefits are being unfairly compared to overall profitability, which he sees as an apples-and-oranges comparison. He explained that the more relevant comparison is to Tesla’s operating income, which was $1.99 billion on a GAAP basis in 2020, up over $2 billion from the figure in 2019. The leap suggests strength greater than that simply achieved via the regulatory credit benefit, in his view.</p><p><blockquote>科尼指出，埃隆·马斯克与公司近期股价飙升相关的巨额薪酬方案是这种情况下的一项关键非经常性成本。此外，科尼认为，监管信贷收益与整体盈利能力相比是不公平的，他认为这是苹果和橘子的比较。他解释说，更相关的比较是特斯拉的营业收入，2020年按GAAP计算为19.9亿美元，比2019年的数字增长了20多亿美元。在他看来，这一飞跃表明了比仅仅通过监管信贷利益实现的实力更强的实力。</blockquote></p><p> Mike Dovororany, VP of Automotive &amp; Mobility at market research firm Escalent, seconded the rosier view held by Koney, reiterating that the risk of regulatory credits fading is well understood by savvy investors, and further that the current U.S. administration might actually aid Tesla’s ability to capitalize on regulation.</p><p><blockquote>市场研究公司Escalent汽车与移动副总裁Mike Dovororany支持Koney持有的乐观观点，重申精明的投资者非常了解监管信用减弱的风险，并进一步表示，现任美国政府实际上可能会帮助特斯拉利用监管的能力。</blockquote></p><p> “Because credit sales have always been the main driver behind Tesla’s profitability, investors should be well-accustomed to this risk,” he explained. “Also, as the Biden Administration looks to reconsider stricter emissions regulations, the EV credit market could become more important than ever.”</p><p><blockquote>“由于信贷销售一直是特斯拉盈利的主要驱动力，投资者应该已经习惯了这种风险，”他解释道。“此外，随着拜登政府寻求重新考虑更严格的排放法规，电动汽车信贷市场可能会变得比以往任何时候都更加重要。”</blockquote></p><p> With the administration now proposing a $174-billion investment in the electric vehicle market aspart of the American Jobs Act, including new tax credits, there is certainly ample reason to be excited. Given Tesla's ability to capitalize on these incentives, it will be worth watching what the final bill entails when it crosses Biden's desk and whether it might mean lead to more big profits for Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>作为《美国就业法案》的一部分，政府现在提议对电动汽车市场投资1740亿美元，包括新的税收抵免，当然有足够的理由感到兴奋。鉴于特斯拉有能力利用这些激励措施，值得关注的是最终法案提交拜登办公桌时会带来什么，以及它是否可能意味着为特斯拉带来更多巨额利润。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla’s Profitability and the Surprising Thing That Could Threaten It<blockquote>特斯拉的盈利能力以及可能威胁它的令人惊讶的事情</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla’s Profitability and the Surprising Thing That Could Threaten It<blockquote>特斯拉的盈利能力以及可能威胁它的令人惊讶的事情</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 21:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Rising competition in the electric vehicle space could not only put a crimp in Tesla’s growth rate, but diminish a big source of income as well.  The explosion in electric vehicle (EV) demand has served to vindicate the vision of Tesla’s&nbsp;(<b>TSLA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;celebrity CEO Elon Musk. Indeed, the surge in demand for EVs has not only vindicated his foresight, but allowed his company to remain a market leader above late-coming competitors.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领域日益激烈的竞争不仅会抑制特斯拉的增长率，还会减少一大收入来源。电动汽车(EV)需求的爆炸式增长证明了特斯拉的愿景（<b>特斯拉</b>）-获取名人首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的报告。事实上，电动汽车需求的激增不仅证明了他的远见，也让他的公司保持了超越后来者竞争对手的市场领导者地位。</blockquote></p><p> However, while the company Musk leads as Technoking is no doubt a market leader, it has not solely cashed in by beating its competitors in terms of sales. Instead, a key to the company's recent turn to profitability has come from taking advantage of government incentives and selling the excess incentives it holds to these very same competitors. And now that many of these competitors are engaging more aggressively in EVs themselves, Tesla may soon find itself without many of these customers and, therefore, without a significant contributor to its profits.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管马斯克领导的Technoking公司无疑是市场领导者，但它并不仅仅通过在销售额上击败竞争对手来获利。相反，该公司最近扭亏为盈的关键来自于利用政府激励措施，并将其持有的多余激励措施出售给这些竞争对手。现在，许多竞争对手都在更积极地涉足电动汽车领域，特斯拉可能很快就会发现自己没有了许多这样的客户，因此也没有对其利润做出重大贡献。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Raking in the Regulatory Credits</b></p><p><blockquote><b>赚取监管信用</b></blockquote></p><p> The credits that Tesla has handsomely profited from are tradable credits offered by various governments around the world for zero-emission vehicles. The fact that they are tradable is crucial since this allows Tesla to sell the credits to other automakers who might not otherwise comply with emission standards without the use of these credits. The set-up allows Tesla to book the credits as purely additive to its top line, with the automakers buying these credits avoiding hefty fines from regulators.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉从中获得丰厚利润的积分是世界各国政府为零排放汽车提供的可交易积分。它们可交易的事实至关重要，因为这使得特斯拉可以将信用额出售给其他汽车制造商，如果不使用这些信用额，这些汽车制造商可能无法遵守排放标准。这种设置允许特斯拉将积分纯粹作为其营收的附加物，汽车制造商购买这些积分可以避免监管机构的巨额罚款。</blockquote></p><p> Per Tesla’s most recent 10-K filing, the company earned $1.58 billion from the sale of these credits in 2020, up from $594 million in the year prior and $419 million in 2018. The year-over -year jump notwithstanding, the credit sales might appear to be a paltry sum given the company’s $31.5 billion in total revenue in 2020. However, their nature as purely profit, in contrast to capital intensive auto manufacturing, means they have been a pivotal part of Tesla’s push towards profitability.</p><p><blockquote>根据特斯拉最近提交的10-K文件，该公司在2020年通过出售这些积分赚取了15.8亿美元，高于上一年的5.94亿美元和2018年的4.19亿美元。尽管同比增长，但考虑到该公司2020年315亿美元的总收入，信贷销售额似乎微不足道。然而，与资本密集型汽车制造业相比，它们纯粹是利润的性质意味着它们一直是特斯拉推动盈利的关键部分。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Tesla’s much-lauded $721 million profit in 2020, the very first profitable full year in its history, was clearly boosted over the top by the surge in regulatory credit sales. Had they remained consistent with the prior periods, the landmark year would have been left short of break-even, keeping up the company's trend of annual losses maintained since its inception.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，特斯拉2020年备受赞誉的7.21亿美元利润，这是其历史上第一个全年盈利的一年，显然是受到监管信贷销售激增的提振。如果它们与前几个时期保持一致，这一具有里程碑意义的一年将无法实现收支平衡，从而保持该公司自成立以来一直保持的年度亏损趋势。</blockquote></p><p> The trend has continued into 2021 as the company reported $518 million in revenues from credit salesin the first quarter, which boosted the company once again to a $438-million quarterly profit. While vehicle deliveries consistently catch the headlines, it's clear that the regulatory credits are buoying the automaker into the black.</p><p><blockquote>这一趋势一直持续到2021年，该公司报告第一季度信贷销售收入为5.18亿美元，这再次使该公司季度利润达到4.38亿美元。虽然汽车交付量不断成为头条新闻，但很明显，监管信贷正在帮助这家汽车制造商实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competition Cuts Into Cash Flow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争削减现金流</b></blockquote></p><p> The problem with the profit margin may be approaching faster than some have anticipated as well, with the increased entry of traditional automakers like Ford&nbsp;(<b>F</b>) -Get Report, General Motors&nbsp;(<b>GM</b>) -Get Report, and Stellantis STLA into the EV space.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特等传统汽车制造商的加入，利润率问题的解决速度可能也比一些人预期的要快（<b>F</b>)-获取报告，通用汽车(<b>GM</b>)-获取报告，Stellantis STLA进入电动汽车领域。</blockquote></p><p> While much of the focus revolves around these companies’ threat to Tesla’s core auto sales, the popularity of Tesla among its devoted fans might sustain it amidst the hard-charging competition. As such, the trajectory of its sales, while now threatened by competent competition, remains somewhat murky at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>虽然大部分焦点都围绕着这些公司对特斯拉核心汽车销售的威胁，但特斯拉在其忠实粉丝中的受欢迎程度可能会在激烈的竞争中维持其地位。因此，其销售轨迹虽然现在受到激烈竞争的威胁，但目前仍然有些模糊。</blockquote></p><p> The question of regulatory credit impact is much more straightforward. If Tesla’s competitors are producing their own electric vehicles and fewer ICE autos, they have no need to spend so substantially on buying credits from Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>监管信用影响的问题要简单得多。如果特斯拉的竞争对手生产自己的电动汽车并减少内燃机汽车，他们就没有必要花这么多钱从特斯拉购买积分。</blockquote></p><p> Per a Reuters report, Fiat Chrysler agreed to purchase $2.4 billion worth of emissions credits from Tesla from 2019 through 2021, likely accounting for a lion’s share of the roughly $2.2 billion recorded in total in credits sold in Tesla’s 2019 and 2020 10-K filings. However, after Fiat Chrysler merged with French automaker PSA Group in May to form Stellantis, this reliable revenue stream looks likely to fade.</p><p><blockquote>据路透社报道，菲亚特克莱斯勒同意在2019年至2021年期间从特斯拉购买价值24亿美元的排放信用额，这可能占特斯拉2019年和2020年10-K文件中出售的信用额总额约22亿美元的大部分。然而，在菲亚特克莱斯勒5月份与法国汽车制造商PSA集团合并成立Stellantis后，这一可靠的收入来源似乎可能会消失。</blockquote></p><p> \"With the electrical technology that PSA brought to Stellantis, we will autonomously meet carbon dioxide emission regulations as early as this year,\" Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares told French media after the merger. \"Thus, we will not need to call on European CO2 credits and [Fiat Chrysler] will no longer have to pool with Tesla or anyone.\"</p><p><blockquote>Stellantis首席执行官卡洛斯·塔瓦雷斯(Carlos Tavares)在合并后对法国媒体表示：“凭借PSA为Stellantis带来的电气技术，我们最早将在今年自主满足二氧化碳排放法规。”“因此，我们将不需要对欧洲二氧化碳信用额进行看涨期权，[菲亚特克莱斯勒]也将不再需要与特斯拉或任何人合作。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Already Anticipated?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>已经预料到了？</b></blockquote></p><p> To be sure, the looming threat of regulatory credit sales eroding is by no means a novel development. CFO Zachary Kirkhorn noted in a call with analysts in mid-2020 that “we don’t manage the business with the assumption that regulatory credits will contribute significantly to the future. Eventually this will reduce.”</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，监管信用销售侵蚀的迫在眉睫的威胁绝不是一个新的发展。首席财务官Zachary Kirkhorn在2020年年中与分析师举行的看涨期权中指出，“我们在管理业务时不会假设监管信贷将对未来做出重大贡献。最终这种情况会减少。”</blockquote></p><p> Kirkhorn’s focus on the core business, especially in terms of battery technology, rather than the regulatory credit sales, is bolstered by the thoughts of prominent Tesla bulls.</p><p><blockquote>柯克霍恩专注于核心业务，特别是在电池技术方面，而不是监管信贷销售，这得到了著名特斯拉多头思想的支持。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “We have owned Tesla for a decade and from day one we expected regulatory credits to go to zero within three years,” Jennison Associates analyst Owuraka Koney said. “They are comfortable without these regulatory credits and they make money when you exclude these credits and these non-recurring costs that they face.”</p><p><blockquote>Jennison Associates分析师Owuraka Koney表示：“我们拥有特斯拉已经十年了，从第一天起，我们就预计监管信用将在三年内降至零。”“他们在没有这些监管信贷的情况下也很舒服，当你排除这些信贷和他们面临的这些非经常性成本时，他们就能赚钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Koney cited Elon Musk’smassive compensation packagetied to the company's recent stock surges as a key non-recurring cost in this context. Further, Koney argued that the regulatory credit benefits are being unfairly compared to overall profitability, which he sees as an apples-and-oranges comparison. He explained that the more relevant comparison is to Tesla’s operating income, which was $1.99 billion on a GAAP basis in 2020, up over $2 billion from the figure in 2019. The leap suggests strength greater than that simply achieved via the regulatory credit benefit, in his view.</p><p><blockquote>科尼指出，埃隆·马斯克与公司近期股价飙升相关的巨额薪酬方案是这种情况下的一项关键非经常性成本。此外，科尼认为，监管信贷收益与整体盈利能力相比是不公平的，他认为这是苹果和橘子的比较。他解释说，更相关的比较是特斯拉的营业收入，2020年按GAAP计算为19.9亿美元，比2019年的数字增长了20多亿美元。在他看来，这一飞跃表明了比仅仅通过监管信贷利益实现的实力更强的实力。</blockquote></p><p> Mike Dovororany, VP of Automotive &amp; Mobility at market research firm Escalent, seconded the rosier view held by Koney, reiterating that the risk of regulatory credits fading is well understood by savvy investors, and further that the current U.S. administration might actually aid Tesla’s ability to capitalize on regulation.</p><p><blockquote>市场研究公司Escalent汽车与移动副总裁Mike Dovororany支持Koney持有的乐观观点，重申精明的投资者非常了解监管信用减弱的风险，并进一步表示，现任美国政府实际上可能会帮助特斯拉利用监管的能力。</blockquote></p><p> “Because credit sales have always been the main driver behind Tesla’s profitability, investors should be well-accustomed to this risk,” he explained. “Also, as the Biden Administration looks to reconsider stricter emissions regulations, the EV credit market could become more important than ever.”</p><p><blockquote>“由于信贷销售一直是特斯拉盈利的主要驱动力，投资者应该已经习惯了这种风险，”他解释道。“此外，随着拜登政府寻求重新考虑更严格的排放法规，电动汽车信贷市场可能会变得比以往任何时候都更加重要。”</blockquote></p><p> With the administration now proposing a $174-billion investment in the electric vehicle market aspart of the American Jobs Act, including new tax credits, there is certainly ample reason to be excited. Given Tesla's ability to capitalize on these incentives, it will be worth watching what the final bill entails when it crosses Biden's desk and whether it might mean lead to more big profits for Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>作为《美国就业法案》的一部分，政府现在提议对电动汽车市场投资1740亿美元，包括新的税收抵免，当然有足够的理由感到兴奋。鉴于特斯拉有能力利用这些激励措施，值得关注的是最终法案提交拜登办公桌时会带来什么，以及它是否可能意味着为特斯拉带来更多巨额利润。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/surprising-thing-that-could-threaten-teslas-profitability\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/surprising-thing-that-could-threaten-teslas-profitability","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100861051","content_text":"Rising competition in the electric vehicle space could not only put a crimp in Tesla’s growth rate, but diminish a big source of income as well.\n\nThe explosion in electric vehicle (EV) demand has served to vindicate the vision of Tesla’s (TSLA) -Get Report celebrity CEO Elon Musk. Indeed, the surge in demand for EVs has not only vindicated his foresight, but allowed his company to remain a market leader above late-coming competitors.\nHowever, while the company Musk leads as Technoking is no doubt a market leader, it has not solely cashed in by beating its competitors in terms of sales. Instead, a key to the company's recent turn to profitability has come from taking advantage of government incentives and selling the excess incentives it holds to these very same competitors. And now that many of these competitors are engaging more aggressively in EVs themselves, Tesla may soon find itself without many of these customers and, therefore, without a significant contributor to its profits.\nRaking in the Regulatory Credits\nThe credits that Tesla has handsomely profited from are tradable credits offered by various governments around the world for zero-emission vehicles. The fact that they are tradable is crucial since this allows Tesla to sell the credits to other automakers who might not otherwise comply with emission standards without the use of these credits. The set-up allows Tesla to book the credits as purely additive to its top line, with the automakers buying these credits avoiding hefty fines from regulators.\nPer Tesla’s most recent 10-K filing, the company earned $1.58 billion from the sale of these credits in 2020, up from $594 million in the year prior and $419 million in 2018. The year-over -year jump notwithstanding, the credit sales might appear to be a paltry sum given the company’s $31.5 billion in total revenue in 2020. However, their nature as purely profit, in contrast to capital intensive auto manufacturing, means they have been a pivotal part of Tesla’s push towards profitability.\nIndeed, Tesla’s much-lauded $721 million profit in 2020, the very first profitable full year in its history, was clearly boosted over the top by the surge in regulatory credit sales. Had they remained consistent with the prior periods, the landmark year would have been left short of break-even, keeping up the company's trend of annual losses maintained since its inception.\nThe trend has continued into 2021 as the company reported $518 million in revenues from credit salesin the first quarter, which boosted the company once again to a $438-million quarterly profit. While vehicle deliveries consistently catch the headlines, it's clear that the regulatory credits are buoying the automaker into the black.\nCompetition Cuts Into Cash Flow\nThe problem with the profit margin may be approaching faster than some have anticipated as well, with the increased entry of traditional automakers like Ford (F) -Get Report, General Motors (GM) -Get Report, and Stellantis STLA into the EV space.\nWhile much of the focus revolves around these companies’ threat to Tesla’s core auto sales, the popularity of Tesla among its devoted fans might sustain it amidst the hard-charging competition. As such, the trajectory of its sales, while now threatened by competent competition, remains somewhat murky at the moment.\nThe question of regulatory credit impact is much more straightforward. If Tesla’s competitors are producing their own electric vehicles and fewer ICE autos, they have no need to spend so substantially on buying credits from Tesla.\nPer a Reuters report, Fiat Chrysler agreed to purchase $2.4 billion worth of emissions credits from Tesla from 2019 through 2021, likely accounting for a lion’s share of the roughly $2.2 billion recorded in total in credits sold in Tesla’s 2019 and 2020 10-K filings. However, after Fiat Chrysler merged with French automaker PSA Group in May to form Stellantis, this reliable revenue stream looks likely to fade.\n\"With the electrical technology that PSA brought to Stellantis, we will autonomously meet carbon dioxide emission regulations as early as this year,\" Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares told French media after the merger. \"Thus, we will not need to call on European CO2 credits and [Fiat Chrysler] will no longer have to pool with Tesla or anyone.\"\nAlready Anticipated?\nTo be sure, the looming threat of regulatory credit sales eroding is by no means a novel development. CFO Zachary Kirkhorn noted in a call with analysts in mid-2020 that “we don’t manage the business with the assumption that regulatory credits will contribute significantly to the future. Eventually this will reduce.”\nKirkhorn’s focus on the core business, especially in terms of battery technology, rather than the regulatory credit sales, is bolstered by the thoughts of prominent Tesla bulls.\n“We have owned Tesla for a decade and from day one we expected regulatory credits to go to zero within three years,” Jennison Associates analyst Owuraka Koney said. “They are comfortable without these regulatory credits and they make money when you exclude these credits and these non-recurring costs that they face.”\nKoney cited Elon Musk’smassive compensation packagetied to the company's recent stock surges as a key non-recurring cost in this context. Further, Koney argued that the regulatory credit benefits are being unfairly compared to overall profitability, which he sees as an apples-and-oranges comparison. He explained that the more relevant comparison is to Tesla’s operating income, which was $1.99 billion on a GAAP basis in 2020, up over $2 billion from the figure in 2019. The leap suggests strength greater than that simply achieved via the regulatory credit benefit, in his view.\nMike Dovororany, VP of Automotive & Mobility at market research firm Escalent, seconded the rosier view held by Koney, reiterating that the risk of regulatory credits fading is well understood by savvy investors, and further that the current U.S. administration might actually aid Tesla’s ability to capitalize on regulation.\n“Because credit sales have always been the main driver behind Tesla’s profitability, investors should be well-accustomed to this risk,” he explained. “Also, as the Biden Administration looks to reconsider stricter emissions regulations, the EV credit market could become more important than ever.”\nWith the administration now proposing a $174-billion investment in the electric vehicle market aspart of the American Jobs Act, including new tax credits, there is certainly ample reason to be excited. Given Tesla's ability to capitalize on these incentives, it will be worth watching what the final bill entails when it crosses Biden's desk and whether it might mean lead to more big profits for Tesla.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":601921036,"gmtCreate":1638485738976,"gmtModify":1638485738976,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554975362733798","authorIdStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$</a>&nbsp;revenue&nbsp;growth slowing, affected by stay home trend during covid,&nbsp;late joiner to online shopping, lack of progress in digital banking. Expected to go&nbsp;low.&nbsp;Have to be patient for this","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$</a>&nbsp;revenue&nbsp;growth slowing, affected by stay home trend during covid,&nbsp;late joiner to online shopping, lack of progress in digital banking. Expected to go&nbsp;low.&nbsp;Have to be patient for this","text":"$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ revenue growth slowing, affected by stay home trend during covid, late joiner to online shopping, lack of progress in digital banking. Expected to go low. Have to be patient for this","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601921036","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":121809648,"gmtCreate":1624457749384,"gmtModify":1631889861501,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554975362733798","authorIdStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It's still a race to zero interest rate. We have been hoodwinked by Powell.&nbsp;","listText":"It's still a race to zero interest rate. We have been hoodwinked by Powell.&nbsp;","text":"It's still a race to zero interest rate. We have been hoodwinked by Powell.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121809648","repostId":"1191722749","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191722749","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624455982,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191722749?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 21:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储，第一部分：他们不能加息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191722749","media":"zerohedge","summary":"3 Key Takeaways\n\nThe US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt\nMuch of the debt is short-term, mak","content":"<p><b>3 Key Takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3个要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>The US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt</li>  <li>Much of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates</li>  <li>Higher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget</li> </ol> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>美国政府债务超过28万亿美元</li><li>大部分债务都是短期的，这使得它对利率上升格外敏感</li><li>更高的利率将立即开始给联邦预算带来压力</li></ol><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> The US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.</p><p><blockquote>美国有超过28万亿美元的债务，并且还在以惊人的速度增长。甚至在新冠肺炎之前，这个问题就变得棘手了。具有讽刺意味的是，尽管去年增加了4T多美元的债务，但疫情可能给了美国政府短期的喘息机会，因为它为美联储将利率降至零开了绿灯。</blockquote></p><p> First and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a&nbsp;<b>$4.5T loan at 0% interest</b>&nbsp;in 15 months!</p><p><blockquote>首先，这减轻了财政部的压力，因为它以较低的利率为不断膨胀的未偿短期债务进行了再融资。然而，随着美联储吸收了自去年3月以来发行的90%以上的长期债务，情况更加缓解。这使得私人市场有更多的空间来购买新发行的短期国库券。因为美联储将利息收入返还给财政部，而且由于国库券的利率为0%，这实际上给了财政部一个<b>$4.5 T 0%利息贷款</b>15个月后！</blockquote></p><p> While this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这听起来是一笔很大的交易，但它伴随着重大风险，现在已经将美联储置于一个盒子里。这将在两篇文章中详细解释。第1部分将解释为什么美联储不能再加息，第2部分将展示美联储如何无法缩减，甚至可能需要增加国债购买，以维持对收益率曲线长端的控制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>$28 Trillion and Growing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>28万亿美元且不断增长</b></blockquote></p><p> The US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府不能停止花钱。现在的支出远远超过了税收收入。美国经济继续经历名义增长，这增加了联邦税收收入，但联邦支出增长速度要快得多。下图1显示了这一明显趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5576e9901f1f8310629d45af16836a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> Excess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.</p><p><blockquote>过度支出必须用债务来支付。这种大规模的过度支出导致联邦政府借贷激增，导致未偿债务总额超过28T美元。见下图2。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed345b06ec4a35726fe7d9847937cf34\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> For anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great&nbsp;visual. Now, multiply that by 28!</p><p><blockquote>对于任何努力理解1T美元规模的人来说，请看看这个伟大的视觉效果。现在，把它乘以28！</blockquote></p><p> For most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The&nbsp;petro-dollar&nbsp;should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.</p><p><blockquote>对于大多数政府来说，这将是不可持续的，因为利率将会上升。这给借款人带来了降低支出的压力。美国政府受益于大多数政府所不具备的三大优势。首先，它拥有发行全球储备货币的过高特权（目前），这对美元的需求远远超过其他情况。石油美元应该有自己的专门文章，所以在这个分析中将跳过。</blockquote></p><p> It is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是要强调另外两个关键事实，这两个事实使得支出和借贷继续有增无减。它已经能够从社会保障信托基金借款，美联储近年来吸收了很大一部分债务发行。这不仅相当于11T美元的无息贷款（因为所有利息支付都返还给财政部），而且还阻止了私人市场吸收所有新的债务发行，从而保持较低的利率。如下图3所示，自2010年1月以来，私人市场“只”吸收了14.5吨发行的9T美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dee6e735c0a3c1421eb321c0eae4b54\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov和https://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></blockquote></p><p> Since Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (<i>Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt</i>). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!</p><p><blockquote>自2020年1月以来，数字更加严峻。财政部已发行4.5 T美元，其中美联储已发行2.6 T美元（<i>注：美联储资产负债表已扩大超过4T美元，但并非全部都是国债</i>).深入研究这些数字就会发现，美联储对长期债券的兴趣更大。由于短期利率为0%，财政部可以向私营部门出售国库券，但仍有无息贷款。因此，美联储吸收财政部发行的几乎所有（约90%）长期债务以保持低利息支付至关重要！</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89bf299c6c054e65d3317aa72d0f686a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>到目前为止，财政部一直避免支付更高的利息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Zooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds &gt;10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.</p><p><blockquote>缩小范围，下面的三张图表显示了为什么过去一年的演习如此重要。再看看美国的债务负担，这次是按工具分类的。不可销售的是政府欠自己的债务，票据代表1-10年期限，票据少于1年，债券&gt;10年。下面的两张图表显示了债务的绝对增长以及债务构成的变化。自2008年以来，票据经历了最大的增长，从占未偿总额的25%增加到42%。非市场则相反，由于社会保障信托基金不再是借款来源，从45%萎缩至25%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a144f0f9250c364637205e8bd0178bc0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1851784731b81544c30c5338624a03\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> It is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是上述国库券的增长。票据是财政部面临的最高风险，因为更高的利率将在几个月内影响票据，因此值得注意的是，在2015年上一次加息周期中，票据仅占1.4 T美元，但现在占4.3 T美元。这意味着每加息0.25%几乎会立即增加100亿美元的联邦支出。下图清楚地显示了上一个加息周期的影响。粉红线显示了美联储加息周期后票据如何达到接近2.25%的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> If the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储试图以类似的方式加息，它将立即在联邦支出中增加1000亿美元，仅用于国库券的到期利息。在美联储将资产负债表缩减至1T美元（不再有无息贷款）并将利率提高至4%的情况下，财政部将额外承担160B美元的国库券利率和高达290B美元的国库券利率！这不会考虑在此期间增加的任何新债务，现在仅利息支付就包括每年额外的0.5 T美元！</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04501c54f465fba412ffbf77b81a559f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.</p><p><blockquote>下图更清楚地显示了近20年来利率下降如何使债务支付保持相对稳定的影响。图表显示了平均加权利率和年化每月利息支付。橙色线（平均加权利率）与上面看到的债务增长直接相反。在上一个利率紧缩周期中，图表显示了高利率增加债务负担的速度（$150B）。美联储拥有的国库券很少（$320B），因此这些利息支付不会返还给财政部。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c859933a1e991d3e6ba191ccb6a7609e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> One final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.</p><p><blockquote>最后一张要考虑的图表。这些利息支付与国税局征收的税收收入相比如何？在这种背景下，2015年加息周期对债务支付的影响有多大就变得非常清楚了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585708ace254d0b79ecddcc77c9c8ca0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>包装</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).</p><p><blockquote>对于任何密切关注美国债务状况或关注金融市场的人来说，这篇文章中的任何内容都不应该感到惊讶。图表和图形试图显示趋势，并把硬数字放在大多数人已经知道的轶事背后。这篇文章甚至没有谈到更高的利率会对房地产市场、公司债务市场和消费者债务市场造成多大的破坏性。相反，它只关注财政部，而财政部恰好由美联储前主席（珍妮特·耶伦）掌管。</blockquote></p><p> None of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury&nbsp;<i>relief</i>&nbsp;from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.<b>Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.</b>If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,<b>even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.</b>That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!</p><p><blockquote>这些数学计算都不太复杂，所有数据都可以在财政部和美联储网站上免费获得。这就引出了一个问题，美联储是否意识到利率不能上升，或者他们只是看着后视镜，假设加息至2.25%将类似于2015年，而2015年“只是”被新冠肺炎脱轨？重申一下，利率的下降给了财政部<i>宽慰</i>来自较高的利息支付。下一次，由于债务负担的增加，他们可能连2%的一半都达不到。<b>不幸的是，对于美联储来说，他们的盒子比大多数人意识到的要紧。</b>如果美联储现在还没想明白，<b>即使在加息失败之前，他们也无法缩减量化宽松（债务货币化），更不用说缩表了，而不会产生严重后果。</b>这些数据将在第2部分中进行回顾。敬请期待！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储，第一部分：他们不能加息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储，第一部分：他们不能加息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 21:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>3 Key Takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3个要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>The US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt</li>  <li>Much of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates</li>  <li>Higher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget</li> </ol> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>美国政府债务超过28万亿美元</li><li>大部分债务都是短期的，这使得它对利率上升格外敏感</li><li>更高的利率将立即开始给联邦预算带来压力</li></ol><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> The US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.</p><p><blockquote>美国有超过28万亿美元的债务，并且还在以惊人的速度增长。甚至在新冠肺炎之前，这个问题就变得棘手了。具有讽刺意味的是，尽管去年增加了4T多美元的债务，但疫情可能给了美国政府短期的喘息机会，因为它为美联储将利率降至零开了绿灯。</blockquote></p><p> First and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a&nbsp;<b>$4.5T loan at 0% interest</b>&nbsp;in 15 months!</p><p><blockquote>首先，这减轻了财政部的压力，因为它以较低的利率为不断膨胀的未偿短期债务进行了再融资。然而，随着美联储吸收了自去年3月以来发行的90%以上的长期债务，情况更加缓解。这使得私人市场有更多的空间来购买新发行的短期国库券。因为美联储将利息收入返还给财政部，而且由于国库券的利率为0%，这实际上给了财政部一个<b>$4.5 T 0%利息贷款</b>15个月后！</blockquote></p><p> While this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这听起来是一笔很大的交易，但它伴随着重大风险，现在已经将美联储置于一个盒子里。这将在两篇文章中详细解释。第1部分将解释为什么美联储不能再加息，第2部分将展示美联储如何无法缩减，甚至可能需要增加国债购买，以维持对收益率曲线长端的控制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>$28 Trillion and Growing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>28万亿美元且不断增长</b></blockquote></p><p> The US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府不能停止花钱。现在的支出远远超过了税收收入。美国经济继续经历名义增长，这增加了联邦税收收入，但联邦支出增长速度要快得多。下图1显示了这一明显趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5576e9901f1f8310629d45af16836a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> Excess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.</p><p><blockquote>过度支出必须用债务来支付。这种大规模的过度支出导致联邦政府借贷激增，导致未偿债务总额超过28T美元。见下图2。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed345b06ec4a35726fe7d9847937cf34\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> For anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great&nbsp;visual. Now, multiply that by 28!</p><p><blockquote>对于任何努力理解1T美元规模的人来说，请看看这个伟大的视觉效果。现在，把它乘以28！</blockquote></p><p> For most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The&nbsp;petro-dollar&nbsp;should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.</p><p><blockquote>对于大多数政府来说，这将是不可持续的，因为利率将会上升。这给借款人带来了降低支出的压力。美国政府受益于大多数政府所不具备的三大优势。首先，它拥有发行全球储备货币的过高特权（目前），这对美元的需求远远超过其他情况。石油美元应该有自己的专门文章，所以在这个分析中将跳过。</blockquote></p><p> It is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是要强调另外两个关键事实，这两个事实使得支出和借贷继续有增无减。它已经能够从社会保障信托基金借款，美联储近年来吸收了很大一部分债务发行。这不仅相当于11T美元的无息贷款（因为所有利息支付都返还给财政部），而且还阻止了私人市场吸收所有新的债务发行，从而保持较低的利率。如下图3所示，自2010年1月以来，私人市场“只”吸收了14.5吨发行的9T美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dee6e735c0a3c1421eb321c0eae4b54\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov和https://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></blockquote></p><p> Since Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (<i>Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt</i>). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!</p><p><blockquote>自2020年1月以来，数字更加严峻。财政部已发行4.5 T美元，其中美联储已发行2.6 T美元（<i>注：美联储资产负债表已扩大超过4T美元，但并非全部都是国债</i>).深入研究这些数字就会发现，美联储对长期债券的兴趣更大。由于短期利率为0%，财政部可以向私营部门出售国库券，但仍有无息贷款。因此，美联储吸收财政部发行的几乎所有（约90%）长期债务以保持低利息支付至关重要！</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89bf299c6c054e65d3317aa72d0f686a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>到目前为止，财政部一直避免支付更高的利息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Zooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds &gt;10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.</p><p><blockquote>缩小范围，下面的三张图表显示了为什么过去一年的演习如此重要。再看看美国的债务负担，这次是按工具分类的。不可销售的是政府欠自己的债务，票据代表1-10年期限，票据少于1年，债券&gt;10年。下面的两张图表显示了债务的绝对增长以及债务构成的变化。自2008年以来，票据经历了最大的增长，从占未偿总额的25%增加到42%。非市场则相反，由于社会保障信托基金不再是借款来源，从45%萎缩至25%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a144f0f9250c364637205e8bd0178bc0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1851784731b81544c30c5338624a03\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> It is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是上述国库券的增长。票据是财政部面临的最高风险，因为更高的利率将在几个月内影响票据，因此值得注意的是，在2015年上一次加息周期中，票据仅占1.4 T美元，但现在占4.3 T美元。这意味着每加息0.25%几乎会立即增加100亿美元的联邦支出。下图清楚地显示了上一个加息周期的影响。粉红线显示了美联储加息周期后票据如何达到接近2.25%的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> If the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储试图以类似的方式加息，它将立即在联邦支出中增加1000亿美元，仅用于国库券的到期利息。在美联储将资产负债表缩减至1T美元（不再有无息贷款）并将利率提高至4%的情况下，财政部将额外承担160B美元的国库券利率和高达290B美元的国库券利率！这不会考虑在此期间增加的任何新债务，现在仅利息支付就包括每年额外的0.5 T美元！</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04501c54f465fba412ffbf77b81a559f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.</p><p><blockquote>下图更清楚地显示了近20年来利率下降如何使债务支付保持相对稳定的影响。图表显示了平均加权利率和年化每月利息支付。橙色线（平均加权利率）与上面看到的债务增长直接相反。在上一个利率紧缩周期中，图表显示了高利率增加债务负担的速度（$150B）。美联储拥有的国库券很少（$320B），因此这些利息支付不会返还给财政部。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c859933a1e991d3e6ba191ccb6a7609e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> One final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.</p><p><blockquote>最后一张要考虑的图表。这些利息支付与国税局征收的税收收入相比如何？在这种背景下，2015年加息周期对债务支付的影响有多大就变得非常清楚了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585708ace254d0b79ecddcc77c9c8ca0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>包装</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).</p><p><blockquote>对于任何密切关注美国债务状况或关注金融市场的人来说，这篇文章中的任何内容都不应该感到惊讶。图表和图形试图显示趋势，并把硬数字放在大多数人已经知道的轶事背后。这篇文章甚至没有谈到更高的利率会对房地产市场、公司债务市场和消费者债务市场造成多大的破坏性。相反，它只关注财政部，而财政部恰好由美联储前主席（珍妮特·耶伦）掌管。</blockquote></p><p> None of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury&nbsp;<i>relief</i>&nbsp;from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.<b>Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.</b>If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,<b>even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.</b>That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!</p><p><blockquote>这些数学计算都不太复杂，所有数据都可以在财政部和美联储网站上免费获得。这就引出了一个问题，美联储是否意识到利率不能上升，或者他们只是看着后视镜，假设加息至2.25%将类似于2015年，而2015年“只是”被新冠肺炎脱轨？重申一下，利率的下降给了财政部<i>宽慰</i>来自较高的利息支付。下一次，由于债务负担的增加，他们可能连2%的一半都达不到。<b>不幸的是，对于美联储来说，他们的盒子比大多数人意识到的要紧。</b>如果美联储现在还没想明白，<b>即使在加息失败之前，他们也无法缩减量化宽松（债务货币化），更不用说缩表了，而不会产生严重后果。</b>这些数据将在第2部分中进行回顾。敬请期待！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-box-part-1-they-cannot-raise-interest-rates\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-box-part-1-they-cannot-raise-interest-rates","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191722749","content_text":"3 Key Takeaways\n\nThe US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt\nMuch of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates\nHigher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget\n\nIntroduction\nThe US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.\nFirst and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a $4.5T loan at 0% interest in 15 months!\nWhile this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.\n$28 Trillion and Growing\nThe US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nExcess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nFor anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great visual. Now, multiply that by 28!\nFor most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The petro-dollar should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.\nIt is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/\nSince Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nThe Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments\nZooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds >10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nIt is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.\nIf the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nThe chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nOne final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nWrapping Up\nNothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).\nNone of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury relief from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123071325,"gmtCreate":1624405211967,"gmtModify":1631889861527,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554975362733798","authorIdStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Diamond hands 👐&nbsp;","listText":"Diamond hands 👐&nbsp;","text":"Diamond hands 👐","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123071325","repostId":"2145664330","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187570196,"gmtCreate":1623760444915,"gmtModify":1634028840667,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554975362733798","authorIdStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It's really a junk boat....&nbsp;","listText":"It's really a junk boat....&nbsp;","text":"It's really a junk boat....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187570196","repostId":"1129954811","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129954811","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623757841,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129954811?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 19:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Royal Caribbean is issuing $650 million of five-year junk bonds<blockquote>皇家加勒比正在发行6.5亿美元的五年期垃圾债券</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129954811","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Royal Caribbean Group RCL, -2.38% said Tuesday it has commenced a private offering of $650 million o","content":"<p>Royal Caribbean Group RCL, -2.38% said Tuesday it has commenced a private offering of $650 million of five-year, high-yield bonds. </p><p><blockquote>皇家加勒比集团RCL,-2.38%周二表示，已开始私募6.5亿美元的五年期高收益债券。</blockquote></p><p> Proceeds of the deal will be used to fund the redemption of about $619.8 million of 7.25% notes that mature in 2025 that were issued by Silversea Cruise Finance Ltd., the cruise operator said in a statement. The remaining funds will be used for general corporate purposes. </p><p><blockquote>邮轮运营商在一份声明中表示，此次交易的收益将用于赎回银海邮轮金融有限公司发行的2025年到期的约6.198亿美元7.25%票据。剩余资金将用于一般公司用途。</blockquote></p><p> Shares were up 0.51% premarket and have gained 18% in the year to date, while the S&amp;P 500 SPX, +0.18% has gained 13%.</p><p><blockquote>该股盘前上涨0.51%，今年迄今已上涨18%，而标普500 SPX指数+0.18%已上涨13%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7be375c5b14bd0e88066699dea19c74\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"440\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Royal Caribbean is issuing $650 million of five-year junk bonds<blockquote>皇家加勒比正在发行6.5亿美元的五年期垃圾债券</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoyal Caribbean is issuing $650 million of five-year junk bonds<blockquote>皇家加勒比正在发行6.5亿美元的五年期垃圾债券</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 19:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Royal Caribbean Group RCL, -2.38% said Tuesday it has commenced a private offering of $650 million of five-year, high-yield bonds. </p><p><blockquote>皇家加勒比集团RCL,-2.38%周二表示，已开始私募6.5亿美元的五年期高收益债券。</blockquote></p><p> Proceeds of the deal will be used to fund the redemption of about $619.8 million of 7.25% notes that mature in 2025 that were issued by Silversea Cruise Finance Ltd., the cruise operator said in a statement. The remaining funds will be used for general corporate purposes. </p><p><blockquote>邮轮运营商在一份声明中表示，此次交易的收益将用于赎回银海邮轮金融有限公司发行的2025年到期的约6.198亿美元7.25%票据。剩余资金将用于一般公司用途。</blockquote></p><p> Shares were up 0.51% premarket and have gained 18% in the year to date, while the S&amp;P 500 SPX, +0.18% has gained 13%.</p><p><blockquote>该股盘前上涨0.51%，今年迄今已上涨18%，而标普500 SPX指数+0.18%已上涨13%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7be375c5b14bd0e88066699dea19c74\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"440\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/royal-caribbean-is-issuing-650-million-of-five-year-junk-bonds-2021-06-15?siteid=rss&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+marketwatch%2Fmarketpulse+%28MarketWatch.com+-+MarketPulse%29&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburner\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RCL":"皇家加勒比邮轮"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/royal-caribbean-is-issuing-650-million-of-five-year-junk-bonds-2021-06-15?siteid=rss&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+marketwatch%2Fmarketpulse+%28MarketWatch.com+-+MarketPulse%29&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburner","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1129954811","content_text":"Royal Caribbean Group RCL, -2.38% said Tuesday it has commenced a private offering of $650 million of five-year, high-yield bonds. \nProceeds of the deal will be used to fund the redemption of about $619.8 million of 7.25% notes that mature in 2025 that were issued by Silversea Cruise Finance Ltd., the cruise operator said in a statement. The remaining funds will be used for general corporate purposes. \nShares were up 0.51% premarket and have gained 18% in the year to date, while the S&P 500 SPX, +0.18% has gained 13%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RCL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":602780814,"gmtCreate":1639067106753,"gmtModify":1639067575523,"author":{"id":"3554975362733798","authorId":"3554975362733798","name":"gnnivla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc90883b3e96e345bfeb86c128184b52","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554975362733798","authorIdStr":"3554975362733798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$</a>&nbsp;CEO&nbsp;Anthony Tan seems more interested to grow his asset base by adding a gcb, instead of growing profits and&nbsp;shareholder returns.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$</a>&nbsp;CEO&nbsp;Anthony Tan seems more interested to grow his asset base by adding a gcb, instead of growing profits and&nbsp;shareholder returns.&nbsp;","text":"$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ CEO Anthony Tan seems more interested to grow his asset base by adding a gcb, instead of growing profits and shareholder returns.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602780814","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}