Jayda的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Jayda

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2021-11-30

good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-11

$Hyliion Holdings Corp.(HYLN)$Free fall

2021-11-10

$Hyliion Holdings Corp.(HYLN)$Haha

2021-11-06

$Hyliion Holdings Corp.(HYLN)$Gogogo

2021-11-05

$SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$ Wow

2021-11-03

$Lumentum Holdings Inc.(LITE)$Keep it?

2021-11-03

$The GEO Group, Inc.(GEO)$ Buy?

2021-11-02

$SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$Buy and hold

2021-11-02

Very good idea

美股出现“躺赢组合”，和上世纪“漂亮50”如出一辙

2021-11-01

$Hyliion Holdings Corp.(HYLN)$Help me

2021-10-30

$Hyliion Holdings Corp.(HYLN)$Coming

2021-10-30

Play it

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-10-29

$Hyliion Holdings Corp.(HYLN)$Sad

2021-10-27

$Hyliion Holdings Corp.(HYLN)$Drop to dip

2021-10-26

$Hyliion Holdings Corp.(HYLN)$sad

2021-10-21

$SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$[财迷]

2021-10-14

$Hyliion Holdings Corp.(HYLN)$ Omg

2021-10-01

$Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF(QYLD)$[得意]

2021-09-29

$Hyliion Holdings Corp.(HYLN)$Up and down

2021-09-16

$新東方(EDU)$I want jump..

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Corp.(HYLN)$Gogogo","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5e547164d89afe16fed6006b729675c","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842829349","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842950899,"gmtCreate":1636126789346,"gmtModify":1636126789346,"author":{"id":"3552858791947065","authorId":"3552858791947065","name":"Jayda","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPLG\">$SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$</a> Wow","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPLG\">$SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$</a> Wow","text":"$SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$ 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it?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/315b12ba2328b5e1cbd5a6fd2d6da52f","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848045754","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848045078,"gmtCreate":1635950107660,"gmtModify":1635950107660,"author":{"id":"3552858791947065","authorId":"3552858791947065","name":"Jayda","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GEO\">$The GEO Group, Inc.(GEO)$</a> Buy?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GEO\">$The GEO Group, Inc.(GEO)$</a> Buy?","text":"$The GEO Group, Inc.(GEO)$ Buy?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f1f01b674689a5c5d5129dca32f90f","width":"750","height":"2061"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848045078","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000430","authorId":"9000000000000430","name":"PaulaBaldwin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e02002a4ff0970395fc8264888e847d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"虽然我不懂中文，但这是太好了，比那个矮子阻止我们！😂🙏🚀🇺🇸🚀🇺🇸","text":"虽然我不懂中文，但这是太好了，比那个矮子阻止我们！😂🙏🚀🇺🇸🚀🇺🇸","html":"虽然我不懂中文，但这是太好了，比那个矮子阻止我们！😂🙏🚀🇺🇸🚀🇺🇸"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841090050,"gmtCreate":1635861772763,"gmtModify":1635861772763,"author":{"id":"3552858791947065","authorId":"3552858791947065","name":"Jayda","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPLG\">$SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$</a>Buy and hold","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPLG\">$SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$</a>Buy and hold","text":"$SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$Buy and hold","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3818a4be2866cb2c8ae0641581befd72","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841090050","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841004680,"gmtCreate":1635861711540,"gmtModify":1635861711540,"author":{"id":"3552858791947065","authorId":"3552858791947065","name":"Jayda","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very good idea","listText":"Very good idea","text":"Very good idea","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841004680","repostId":"1189655201","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189655201","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美股研究社，一个专注研究美股的平台，专业的美股投资人都在这。想了解美国股市行情、美股开户、美股资讯、美股公司；想获得一手美股重磅信息；想加入美股交流社群，敬请关注我们吧。","home_visible":0,"media_name":"美股研究社","id":"1074069735","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6"},"pubTimestamp":1635849479,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189655201?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-02 18:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股出现“躺赢组合”，和上世纪“漂亮50”如出一辙","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189655201","media":"美股研究社","summary":"只有超级巨头能通过抢夺竞争对手的市场份额获得宝贵的增长。","content":"<p>从已经发布的美国关键企业财报来看，预期中暴雷是有的，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>都交出了不及预期的财报，但市场却并没有出现剧烈震荡，仍然相当平稳。</p>\n<p>甚至，本周伊始，三大股指均创下了历史新高！但细心的小伙伴们，应该发现了一件事，那就是<b>股指虽然涨的很好，但大多数个股都基本没涨，甚至还跌的相当惨。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08562759f8e47b65594797093bdcbc2a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>举几个重要的板块，金融支付板块，V单周暴跌8.42%、MA单周暴跌6.45%、PYPL收跌3.25%、AXP收跌7.11%、COF收跌10.02%，可以说远远跑输了大盘。再比如，工业军工板块。RTX单周收跌3.27%、GD单周收跌3.23%、NOC单周收跌12.06%，一直被当成稳健蓝筹的LMT更是放量暴跌11.29%。</p>\n<p>在正式对未来进行预测之前，还是先来复盘下，我们在10月的预测。在月初的时候，我写了一篇对10月的预测，整体观点可以总结成以下三点：</p>\n<p>1、当美股9月出现暴跌的时候，意味着机构对三季度财报相当谨慎，10月往往会有相当大的波动，而按照历史数据来看，再次出现回调的概率很高。10月14日之前，大盘会在低位继续震荡。</p>\n<p>2、14日之后，财报季开启，银行股财报决定大盘方向。如果财报暴雷，美股直接往下暴跌1000点，如果业绩很好，股指短期重新恢复上涨动能，然后继续等FAAMG五大巨公布财报。</p>\n<p>3、25日之后，FAAMG公布财报。如果FAAMG财报炸裂，股指创新高之后，机构会借助FAAMG财报出货，大盘走势会参照去年9月和今年2月，最后走出一个双底。如果FAAMG财报暴雷，纳指可能会往下暴跌，迎来戴维斯双杀，去补13300的缺口。</p>\n<p>现在正好10月过去了，很多人可能没有看懂我们的分析，这里有必要去回顾下当时的预测。这三点预测是一个层层递进关系，基本重要板块的财报是关键的时间节点。</p>\n<p>第一点的预测是针对10月1日~10月14日没开启财报季的大盘，这点我们预测的可以说相当精准，股指在10月14日之前一直处在震荡下行状态，体现出市场对财报季的谨慎。</p>\n<p>第二点的预测是针对10月14日~25日的大盘，这个时候银行股财报已经公布了，但FAAMG的财报还没公布，市场的方向主要由银行板块决定，14日跳空上涨之后，我们在10月14日~25日这个阶段激进做多，这点的预测也可以说相当精准。</p>\n<p>第三点的预测是针对10月25日~30日的大盘，这个时候FAAMG的财报已经公布，整体业绩表现相当不错，三大股指也接近创下历史新高。按照我们的判断，机构会借助利好出货，回调可能要来了，但最后的结果却是加速上涨，周四创下历史新高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7736457d0e7c5a3fe4dc7e3bf68a4677\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>到这里，在10月28日这一天，我们对10月美股走势的判断，可以说宣告失败。纳指并没有开启预期中的双底调整，而是走出了相当强劲的V形反转。</p>\n<p>我们的预测为什么错了？因为<b>错误的低估了市场对巨头的热情</b>。在整个10月，TFAANMG等超级巨头开启了超级上升浪，光TSLA一家公司就给整个股指贡献了3个点左右的涨幅。</p>\n<p>如果你算上NVDA、MSFT、GOOG剩下的巨头。你会发现，光这八大巨头就给纳指贡献了接近7%的涨幅。想象一下，纳指在整个10月就涨了7.27%，八大巨头却贡献了7%的涨幅，等于剩下的公司基本是没涨没跌。</p>\n<p><b>如果我们把目光集中到Top 15的话，你会发现前十五大巨头给股指贡献了差不多8.3%的涨幅。这是一件更加可怕的事，意味着纳指100里面的剩下85家公司在10月给整个股指贡献的涨幅是负数，而且超过了1%的跌幅。</b></p>\n<p>如果我们看今年一年，纳指涨了20%左右，TFAAMG七大巨头给股指的贡献又是多少呢？简单粗略算了下，差不多贡献了21.15%的涨幅，如果进一步集中到Top 15的话，差不多要贡献26%左右的涨幅。</p>\n<p>说现在已经进入抱团时代，这一系列血淋淋的数据摆在这，相信没有人会去否认这个事实了。这就是我要在文章一开始要对10月的错误预测进行复盘的原因，因为实在是严重低估了美股抱团的决心。</p>\n<p>当前这一波行情，我们如果要用一个概念来总结的话，不妨可以叫“躺赢组合”。FAAMG是最稳健的大盘股，TSLA和NVDA是最优秀的成长股，这七大巨头覆盖了人类经济社会的方方面面，既有稳定的现金流，又有具有想象力前景的概念。</p>\n<p>FB是社交媒体最强王者、GOOG是数字广告最强王者、AMZN是电商最强王者、MSFT是软件服务的最强王者、AAPL是宇宙总龙头、TSLA是新能源最强王者、NVDA是芯片、元宇宙、AI的最强王者。</p>\n<p>TSLA在竞争对手纷纷遭遇芯片供应链危机和通胀成长上涨阶段，不仅实现了销量的逆势增长，反而实现了利润率的加速提升。</p>\n<p>AMZN和其他零售商一样遭到了严重通胀成本上涨危机，并且带来了40亿美元的影响，但AWS、Prime会员订阅、数字广告等利润率高的业务均在三季度加速增长。</p>\n<p>GOOG强劲的业绩告诉市场，虽然供应链危机让广告主减少了支出，但数字广告赛道增长仍然非常健康。FB遭到了同样的危险，但元宇宙的前景也值得投资人期待。</p>\n<p>AAPL受到了供应链影响，但这个影响也只有60亿美元，在一季度900亿美元的营收面前，这个影响可以忽略不计，更何况当前的iPhone 13正创下历史最好销量成绩单。</p>\n<p>NVDA的芯片仍然处在供不应求的阶段，即使供应链会导致成本上涨，但它们可以轻而易举的转移给下游的需求方。人工智能、大数据、自动驾驶等业务的高速发展，都告诉市场这家公司不会放缓增长。</p>\n<p>MSFT是唯一不受通胀影响的超级巨头，经济周期对其的影响几乎可以忽略不计，明年还有涨价15%的超级利好预期，增长仍然值得期待。</p>\n<p><b>TFAAMG强劲的三季度财报，让市场明白了一个道理，只有超级巨头才是真正可以抵抗通胀的</b>。我们去看看其他板块，却大多数都受到了影响，举三个比较数字的例子：</p>\n<p>一个是军工板块的蓝筹股LMT，三季度的财报就遇到了大雷；一个是消费板块的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>，三季度也受到了咖啡豆成本上涨的影响；另一个是运输板块的FDX，人力成本激增导致利润率出现了严重下滑。</p>\n<p>回到我们10月的预测，纳指为什么在FAAMG财报公布之后，不仅没有出现预期中的回调，反而突破了阻力位，创下了历史新高？这中间的导火索，主要是因为周四公布的GDP数据。</p>\n<p>据美国政府周四发布的一项报告，继第二季度消费者12%年增长率之后，三季度消费者支出的年增长率放缓至1.6% 。不仅低于今年二季度的6.7%，还低于市场保守预测的3.5%，为该国自2020年二季度暴跌以来最慢的增速。</p>\n<p><b>史无前例的放水之后，疫情蔓延、供应链瓶颈、居高不下的通胀，一个又一个棘手的难题正在拖垮着美国的经济增长。美联储又不可能回到去年那样的宽松状态，经济刺激的效果基本没太大作用了，整个社会即将迈入一个慢增长阶段。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f832007e9c17ca507e50ca27f3fa7bc8\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>历史是最好的老师，“躺赢组合”形成的原因，其实和上个世纪的“漂亮50”如出一辙，都是因为<b>经济在恶性通胀之后，即将进入一个存量竞争时代，只有超级巨头能通过抢夺竞争对手的市场份额获得宝贵的增长。</b></p>\n<p>三大股指在10月走出V形反转的形态，表面上看是FAAMG的业绩不错，带领着大盘持续上行，内在其实是「市场预期经济即将进入新的下行拐点，只有超级巨头能够保持增长，<b>在长期经济增长不确定的大环境中购买确定性，整体市场的估值体系正在发生转化</b>」</p>\n<p>那么问题来了，当年的抱团主要集中在消费医药板块，为什么现在却将更多的目光了科技板块。这其实又要说到另一个数据，那就是美国三季度的消费者商品支出数据：美国三季度消费者商品支出下降了9.2%。</p>\n<p>不同以往的货币宽松，这一轮的放水主要是疫情驱动，溢出的流动性基本全部流向了金融市场，而不是实体经济。美国人在这个阶段的资产价格确实增长了很多，但可支配的消费水平却是下滑的，尤其在美国政府停止发放救济补助之后。</p>\n<p>说的难听点，美国经济很可能要进入“滞涨”阶段，消费市场大概率是要萎缩的。这个时候，只有科技创新，或许才能改变未来的困境，也只有科技巨头还能保持持续增长。<b>当然，最重要的是，现在TFAANMG都是印钞机。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05654f9e10dbbcbd932a740cbb5d3575\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>历史给人类最大的教训，就是人类不肯接受历史的教训。</p>\n<p>当前这个市场，其实很简单了，你要么买入“躺赢组合”，既然跑不赢，那就加入它。要么就拿着那些受到通胀影响的公司，做<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>2年赚不到钱的准备。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股出现“躺赢组合”，和上世纪“漂亮50”如出一辙</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股出现“躺赢组合”，和上世纪“漂亮50”如出一辙\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股研究社 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-02 18:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>从已经发布的美国关键企业财报来看，预期中暴雷是有的，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>都交出了不及预期的财报，但市场却并没有出现剧烈震荡，仍然相当平稳。</p>\n<p>甚至，本周伊始，三大股指均创下了历史新高！但细心的小伙伴们，应该发现了一件事，那就是<b>股指虽然涨的很好，但大多数个股都基本没涨，甚至还跌的相当惨。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08562759f8e47b65594797093bdcbc2a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>举几个重要的板块，金融支付板块，V单周暴跌8.42%、MA单周暴跌6.45%、PYPL收跌3.25%、AXP收跌7.11%、COF收跌10.02%，可以说远远跑输了大盘。再比如，工业军工板块。RTX单周收跌3.27%、GD单周收跌3.23%、NOC单周收跌12.06%，一直被当成稳健蓝筹的LMT更是放量暴跌11.29%。</p>\n<p>在正式对未来进行预测之前，还是先来复盘下，我们在10月的预测。在月初的时候，我写了一篇对10月的预测，整体观点可以总结成以下三点：</p>\n<p>1、当美股9月出现暴跌的时候，意味着机构对三季度财报相当谨慎，10月往往会有相当大的波动，而按照历史数据来看，再次出现回调的概率很高。10月14日之前，大盘会在低位继续震荡。</p>\n<p>2、14日之后，财报季开启，银行股财报决定大盘方向。如果财报暴雷，美股直接往下暴跌1000点，如果业绩很好，股指短期重新恢复上涨动能，然后继续等FAAMG五大巨公布财报。</p>\n<p>3、25日之后，FAAMG公布财报。如果FAAMG财报炸裂，股指创新高之后，机构会借助FAAMG财报出货，大盘走势会参照去年9月和今年2月，最后走出一个双底。如果FAAMG财报暴雷，纳指可能会往下暴跌，迎来戴维斯双杀，去补13300的缺口。</p>\n<p>现在正好10月过去了，很多人可能没有看懂我们的分析，这里有必要去回顾下当时的预测。这三点预测是一个层层递进关系，基本重要板块的财报是关键的时间节点。</p>\n<p>第一点的预测是针对10月1日~10月14日没开启财报季的大盘，这点我们预测的可以说相当精准，股指在10月14日之前一直处在震荡下行状态，体现出市场对财报季的谨慎。</p>\n<p>第二点的预测是针对10月14日~25日的大盘，这个时候银行股财报已经公布了，但FAAMG的财报还没公布，市场的方向主要由银行板块决定，14日跳空上涨之后，我们在10月14日~25日这个阶段激进做多，这点的预测也可以说相当精准。</p>\n<p>第三点的预测是针对10月25日~30日的大盘，这个时候FAAMG的财报已经公布，整体业绩表现相当不错，三大股指也接近创下历史新高。按照我们的判断，机构会借助利好出货，回调可能要来了，但最后的结果却是加速上涨，周四创下历史新高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7736457d0e7c5a3fe4dc7e3bf68a4677\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>到这里，在10月28日这一天，我们对10月美股走势的判断，可以说宣告失败。纳指并没有开启预期中的双底调整，而是走出了相当强劲的V形反转。</p>\n<p>我们的预测为什么错了？因为<b>错误的低估了市场对巨头的热情</b>。在整个10月，TFAANMG等超级巨头开启了超级上升浪，光TSLA一家公司就给整个股指贡献了3个点左右的涨幅。</p>\n<p>如果你算上NVDA、MSFT、GOOG剩下的巨头。你会发现，光这八大巨头就给纳指贡献了接近7%的涨幅。想象一下，纳指在整个10月就涨了7.27%，八大巨头却贡献了7%的涨幅，等于剩下的公司基本是没涨没跌。</p>\n<p><b>如果我们把目光集中到Top 15的话，你会发现前十五大巨头给股指贡献了差不多8.3%的涨幅。这是一件更加可怕的事，意味着纳指100里面的剩下85家公司在10月给整个股指贡献的涨幅是负数，而且超过了1%的跌幅。</b></p>\n<p>如果我们看今年一年，纳指涨了20%左右，TFAAMG七大巨头给股指的贡献又是多少呢？简单粗略算了下，差不多贡献了21.15%的涨幅，如果进一步集中到Top 15的话，差不多要贡献26%左右的涨幅。</p>\n<p>说现在已经进入抱团时代，这一系列血淋淋的数据摆在这，相信没有人会去否认这个事实了。这就是我要在文章一开始要对10月的错误预测进行复盘的原因，因为实在是严重低估了美股抱团的决心。</p>\n<p>当前这一波行情，我们如果要用一个概念来总结的话，不妨可以叫“躺赢组合”。FAAMG是最稳健的大盘股，TSLA和NVDA是最优秀的成长股，这七大巨头覆盖了人类经济社会的方方面面，既有稳定的现金流，又有具有想象力前景的概念。</p>\n<p>FB是社交媒体最强王者、GOOG是数字广告最强王者、AMZN是电商最强王者、MSFT是软件服务的最强王者、AAPL是宇宙总龙头、TSLA是新能源最强王者、NVDA是芯片、元宇宙、AI的最强王者。</p>\n<p>TSLA在竞争对手纷纷遭遇芯片供应链危机和通胀成长上涨阶段，不仅实现了销量的逆势增长，反而实现了利润率的加速提升。</p>\n<p>AMZN和其他零售商一样遭到了严重通胀成本上涨危机，并且带来了40亿美元的影响，但AWS、Prime会员订阅、数字广告等利润率高的业务均在三季度加速增长。</p>\n<p>GOOG强劲的业绩告诉市场，虽然供应链危机让广告主减少了支出，但数字广告赛道增长仍然非常健康。FB遭到了同样的危险，但元宇宙的前景也值得投资人期待。</p>\n<p>AAPL受到了供应链影响，但这个影响也只有60亿美元，在一季度900亿美元的营收面前，这个影响可以忽略不计，更何况当前的iPhone 13正创下历史最好销量成绩单。</p>\n<p>NVDA的芯片仍然处在供不应求的阶段，即使供应链会导致成本上涨，但它们可以轻而易举的转移给下游的需求方。人工智能、大数据、自动驾驶等业务的高速发展，都告诉市场这家公司不会放缓增长。</p>\n<p>MSFT是唯一不受通胀影响的超级巨头，经济周期对其的影响几乎可以忽略不计，明年还有涨价15%的超级利好预期，增长仍然值得期待。</p>\n<p><b>TFAAMG强劲的三季度财报，让市场明白了一个道理，只有超级巨头才是真正可以抵抗通胀的</b>。我们去看看其他板块，却大多数都受到了影响，举三个比较数字的例子：</p>\n<p>一个是军工板块的蓝筹股LMT，三季度的财报就遇到了大雷；一个是消费板块的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>，三季度也受到了咖啡豆成本上涨的影响；另一个是运输板块的FDX，人力成本激增导致利润率出现了严重下滑。</p>\n<p>回到我们10月的预测，纳指为什么在FAAMG财报公布之后，不仅没有出现预期中的回调，反而突破了阻力位，创下了历史新高？这中间的导火索，主要是因为周四公布的GDP数据。</p>\n<p>据美国政府周四发布的一项报告，继第二季度消费者12%年增长率之后，三季度消费者支出的年增长率放缓至1.6% 。不仅低于今年二季度的6.7%，还低于市场保守预测的3.5%，为该国自2020年二季度暴跌以来最慢的增速。</p>\n<p><b>史无前例的放水之后，疫情蔓延、供应链瓶颈、居高不下的通胀，一个又一个棘手的难题正在拖垮着美国的经济增长。美联储又不可能回到去年那样的宽松状态，经济刺激的效果基本没太大作用了，整个社会即将迈入一个慢增长阶段。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f832007e9c17ca507e50ca27f3fa7bc8\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>历史是最好的老师，“躺赢组合”形成的原因，其实和上个世纪的“漂亮50”如出一辙，都是因为<b>经济在恶性通胀之后，即将进入一个存量竞争时代，只有超级巨头能通过抢夺竞争对手的市场份额获得宝贵的增长。</b></p>\n<p>三大股指在10月走出V形反转的形态，表面上看是FAAMG的业绩不错，带领着大盘持续上行，内在其实是「市场预期经济即将进入新的下行拐点，只有超级巨头能够保持增长，<b>在长期经济增长不确定的大环境中购买确定性，整体市场的估值体系正在发生转化</b>」</p>\n<p>那么问题来了，当年的抱团主要集中在消费医药板块，为什么现在却将更多的目光了科技板块。这其实又要说到另一个数据，那就是美国三季度的消费者商品支出数据：美国三季度消费者商品支出下降了9.2%。</p>\n<p>不同以往的货币宽松，这一轮的放水主要是疫情驱动，溢出的流动性基本全部流向了金融市场，而不是实体经济。美国人在这个阶段的资产价格确实增长了很多，但可支配的消费水平却是下滑的，尤其在美国政府停止发放救济补助之后。</p>\n<p>说的难听点，美国经济很可能要进入“滞涨”阶段，消费市场大概率是要萎缩的。这个时候，只有科技创新，或许才能改变未来的困境，也只有科技巨头还能保持持续增长。<b>当然，最重要的是，现在TFAANMG都是印钞机。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05654f9e10dbbcbd932a740cbb5d3575\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>历史给人类最大的教训，就是人类不肯接受历史的教训。</p>\n<p>当前这个市场，其实很简单了，你要么买入“躺赢组合”，既然跑不赢，那就加入它。要么就拿着那些受到通胀影响的公司，做<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>2年赚不到钱的准备。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189655201","content_text":"从已经发布的美国关键企业财报来看，预期中暴雷是有的，Facebook、亚马逊和苹果都交出了不及预期的财报，但市场却并没有出现剧烈震荡，仍然相当平稳。\n甚至，本周伊始，三大股指均创下了历史新高！但细心的小伙伴们，应该发现了一件事，那就是股指虽然涨的很好，但大多数个股都基本没涨，甚至还跌的相当惨。\n\n举几个重要的板块，金融支付板块，V单周暴跌8.42%、MA单周暴跌6.45%、PYPL收跌3.25%、AXP收跌7.11%、COF收跌10.02%，可以说远远跑输了大盘。再比如，工业军工板块。RTX单周收跌3.27%、GD单周收跌3.23%、NOC单周收跌12.06%，一直被当成稳健蓝筹的LMT更是放量暴跌11.29%。\n在正式对未来进行预测之前，还是先来复盘下，我们在10月的预测。在月初的时候，我写了一篇对10月的预测，整体观点可以总结成以下三点：\n1、当美股9月出现暴跌的时候，意味着机构对三季度财报相当谨慎，10月往往会有相当大的波动，而按照历史数据来看，再次出现回调的概率很高。10月14日之前，大盘会在低位继续震荡。\n2、14日之后，财报季开启，银行股财报决定大盘方向。如果财报暴雷，美股直接往下暴跌1000点，如果业绩很好，股指短期重新恢复上涨动能，然后继续等FAAMG五大巨公布财报。\n3、25日之后，FAAMG公布财报。如果FAAMG财报炸裂，股指创新高之后，机构会借助FAAMG财报出货，大盘走势会参照去年9月和今年2月，最后走出一个双底。如果FAAMG财报暴雷，纳指可能会往下暴跌，迎来戴维斯双杀，去补13300的缺口。\n现在正好10月过去了，很多人可能没有看懂我们的分析，这里有必要去回顾下当时的预测。这三点预测是一个层层递进关系，基本重要板块的财报是关键的时间节点。\n第一点的预测是针对10月1日~10月14日没开启财报季的大盘，这点我们预测的可以说相当精准，股指在10月14日之前一直处在震荡下行状态，体现出市场对财报季的谨慎。\n第二点的预测是针对10月14日~25日的大盘，这个时候银行股财报已经公布了，但FAAMG的财报还没公布，市场的方向主要由银行板块决定，14日跳空上涨之后，我们在10月14日~25日这个阶段激进做多，这点的预测也可以说相当精准。\n第三点的预测是针对10月25日~30日的大盘，这个时候FAAMG的财报已经公布，整体业绩表现相当不错，三大股指也接近创下历史新高。按照我们的判断，机构会借助利好出货，回调可能要来了，但最后的结果却是加速上涨，周四创下历史新高。\n\n到这里，在10月28日这一天，我们对10月美股走势的判断，可以说宣告失败。纳指并没有开启预期中的双底调整，而是走出了相当强劲的V形反转。\n我们的预测为什么错了？因为错误的低估了市场对巨头的热情。在整个10月，TFAANMG等超级巨头开启了超级上升浪，光TSLA一家公司就给整个股指贡献了3个点左右的涨幅。\n如果你算上NVDA、MSFT、GOOG剩下的巨头。你会发现，光这八大巨头就给纳指贡献了接近7%的涨幅。想象一下，纳指在整个10月就涨了7.27%，八大巨头却贡献了7%的涨幅，等于剩下的公司基本是没涨没跌。\n如果我们把目光集中到Top 15的话，你会发现前十五大巨头给股指贡献了差不多8.3%的涨幅。这是一件更加可怕的事，意味着纳指100里面的剩下85家公司在10月给整个股指贡献的涨幅是负数，而且超过了1%的跌幅。\n如果我们看今年一年，纳指涨了20%左右，TFAAMG七大巨头给股指的贡献又是多少呢？简单粗略算了下，差不多贡献了21.15%的涨幅，如果进一步集中到Top 15的话，差不多要贡献26%左右的涨幅。\n说现在已经进入抱团时代，这一系列血淋淋的数据摆在这，相信没有人会去否认这个事实了。这就是我要在文章一开始要对10月的错误预测进行复盘的原因，因为实在是严重低估了美股抱团的决心。\n当前这一波行情，我们如果要用一个概念来总结的话，不妨可以叫“躺赢组合”。FAAMG是最稳健的大盘股，TSLA和NVDA是最优秀的成长股，这七大巨头覆盖了人类经济社会的方方面面，既有稳定的现金流，又有具有想象力前景的概念。\nFB是社交媒体最强王者、GOOG是数字广告最强王者、AMZN是电商最强王者、MSFT是软件服务的最强王者、AAPL是宇宙总龙头、TSLA是新能源最强王者、NVDA是芯片、元宇宙、AI的最强王者。\nTSLA在竞争对手纷纷遭遇芯片供应链危机和通胀成长上涨阶段，不仅实现了销量的逆势增长，反而实现了利润率的加速提升。\nAMZN和其他零售商一样遭到了严重通胀成本上涨危机，并且带来了40亿美元的影响，但AWS、Prime会员订阅、数字广告等利润率高的业务均在三季度加速增长。\nGOOG强劲的业绩告诉市场，虽然供应链危机让广告主减少了支出，但数字广告赛道增长仍然非常健康。FB遭到了同样的危险，但元宇宙的前景也值得投资人期待。\nAAPL受到了供应链影响，但这个影响也只有60亿美元，在一季度900亿美元的营收面前，这个影响可以忽略不计，更何况当前的iPhone 13正创下历史最好销量成绩单。\nNVDA的芯片仍然处在供不应求的阶段，即使供应链会导致成本上涨，但它们可以轻而易举的转移给下游的需求方。人工智能、大数据、自动驾驶等业务的高速发展，都告诉市场这家公司不会放缓增长。\nMSFT是唯一不受通胀影响的超级巨头，经济周期对其的影响几乎可以忽略不计，明年还有涨价15%的超级利好预期，增长仍然值得期待。\nTFAAMG强劲的三季度财报，让市场明白了一个道理，只有超级巨头才是真正可以抵抗通胀的。我们去看看其他板块，却大多数都受到了影响，举三个比较数字的例子：\n一个是军工板块的蓝筹股LMT，三季度的财报就遇到了大雷；一个是消费板块的星巴克，三季度也受到了咖啡豆成本上涨的影响；另一个是运输板块的FDX，人力成本激增导致利润率出现了严重下滑。\n回到我们10月的预测，纳指为什么在FAAMG财报公布之后，不仅没有出现预期中的回调，反而突破了阻力位，创下了历史新高？这中间的导火索，主要是因为周四公布的GDP数据。\n据美国政府周四发布的一项报告，继第二季度消费者12%年增长率之后，三季度消费者支出的年增长率放缓至1.6% 。不仅低于今年二季度的6.7%，还低于市场保守预测的3.5%，为该国自2020年二季度暴跌以来最慢的增速。\n史无前例的放水之后，疫情蔓延、供应链瓶颈、居高不下的通胀，一个又一个棘手的难题正在拖垮着美国的经济增长。美联储又不可能回到去年那样的宽松状态，经济刺激的效果基本没太大作用了，整个社会即将迈入一个慢增长阶段。\n\n历史是最好的老师，“躺赢组合”形成的原因，其实和上个世纪的“漂亮50”如出一辙，都是因为经济在恶性通胀之后，即将进入一个存量竞争时代，只有超级巨头能通过抢夺竞争对手的市场份额获得宝贵的增长。\n三大股指在10月走出V形反转的形态，表面上看是FAAMG的业绩不错，带领着大盘持续上行，内在其实是「市场预期经济即将进入新的下行拐点，只有超级巨头能够保持增长，在长期经济增长不确定的大环境中购买确定性，整体市场的估值体系正在发生转化」\n那么问题来了，当年的抱团主要集中在消费医药板块，为什么现在却将更多的目光了科技板块。这其实又要说到另一个数据，那就是美国三季度的消费者商品支出数据：美国三季度消费者商品支出下降了9.2%。\n不同以往的货币宽松，这一轮的放水主要是疫情驱动，溢出的流动性基本全部流向了金融市场，而不是实体经济。美国人在这个阶段的资产价格确实增长了很多，但可支配的消费水平却是下滑的，尤其在美国政府停止发放救济补助之后。\n说的难听点，美国经济很可能要进入“滞涨”阶段，消费市场大概率是要萎缩的。这个时候，只有科技创新，或许才能改变未来的困境，也只有科技巨头还能保持持续增长。当然，最重要的是，现在TFAANMG都是印钞机。\n\n历史给人类最大的教训，就是人类不肯接受历史的教训。\n当前这个市场，其实很简单了，你要么买入“躺赢组合”，既然跑不赢，那就加入它。要么就拿着那些受到通胀影响的公司，做好未来2年赚不到钱的准备。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849543889,"gmtCreate":1635769590295,"gmtModify":1635769590295,"author":{"id":"3552858791947065","authorId":"3552858791947065","name":"Jayda","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Buy?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f1f01b674689a5c5d5129dca32f90f","width":"750","height":"2061"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848045078","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000430","authorId":"9000000000000430","name":"PaulaBaldwin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e02002a4ff0970395fc8264888e847d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"虽然我不懂中文，但这是太好了，比那个矮子阻止我们！😂🙏🚀🇺🇸🚀🇺🇸","text":"虽然我不懂中文，但这是太好了，比那个矮子阻止我们！😂🙏🚀🇺🇸🚀🇺🇸","html":"虽然我不懂中文，但这是太好了，比那个矮子阻止我们！😂🙏🚀🇺🇸🚀🇺🇸"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881295135,"gmtCreate":1631339986627,"gmtModify":1631339986627,"author":{"id":"3552858791947065","authorId":"3552858791947065","name":"Jayda","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新東方(EDU)$</a>Strong hold","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新東方(EDU)$</a>Strong hold","text":"$新東方(EDU)$Strong hold","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/768059bfe0820aed0359865871d8ced4","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881295135","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841004680,"gmtCreate":1635861711540,"gmtModify":1635861711540,"author":{"id":"3552858791947065","authorId":"3552858791947065","name":"Jayda","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very good idea","listText":"Very good idea","text":"Very good idea","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841004680","repostId":"1189655201","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189655201","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美股研究社，一个专注研究美股的平台，专业的美股投资人都在这。想了解美国股市行情、美股开户、美股资讯、美股公司；想获得一手美股重磅信息；想加入美股交流社群，敬请关注我们吧。","home_visible":0,"media_name":"美股研究社","id":"1074069735","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6"},"pubTimestamp":1635849479,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189655201?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-02 18:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股出现“躺赢组合”，和上世纪“漂亮50”如出一辙","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189655201","media":"美股研究社","summary":"只有超级巨头能通过抢夺竞争对手的市场份额获得宝贵的增长。","content":"<p>从已经发布的美国关键企业财报来看，预期中暴雷是有的，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>都交出了不及预期的财报，但市场却并没有出现剧烈震荡，仍然相当平稳。</p>\n<p>甚至，本周伊始，三大股指均创下了历史新高！但细心的小伙伴们，应该发现了一件事，那就是<b>股指虽然涨的很好，但大多数个股都基本没涨，甚至还跌的相当惨。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08562759f8e47b65594797093bdcbc2a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>举几个重要的板块，金融支付板块，V单周暴跌8.42%、MA单周暴跌6.45%、PYPL收跌3.25%、AXP收跌7.11%、COF收跌10.02%，可以说远远跑输了大盘。再比如，工业军工板块。RTX单周收跌3.27%、GD单周收跌3.23%、NOC单周收跌12.06%，一直被当成稳健蓝筹的LMT更是放量暴跌11.29%。</p>\n<p>在正式对未来进行预测之前，还是先来复盘下，我们在10月的预测。在月初的时候，我写了一篇对10月的预测，整体观点可以总结成以下三点：</p>\n<p>1、当美股9月出现暴跌的时候，意味着机构对三季度财报相当谨慎，10月往往会有相当大的波动，而按照历史数据来看，再次出现回调的概率很高。10月14日之前，大盘会在低位继续震荡。</p>\n<p>2、14日之后，财报季开启，银行股财报决定大盘方向。如果财报暴雷，美股直接往下暴跌1000点，如果业绩很好，股指短期重新恢复上涨动能，然后继续等FAAMG五大巨公布财报。</p>\n<p>3、25日之后，FAAMG公布财报。如果FAAMG财报炸裂，股指创新高之后，机构会借助FAAMG财报出货，大盘走势会参照去年9月和今年2月，最后走出一个双底。如果FAAMG财报暴雷，纳指可能会往下暴跌，迎来戴维斯双杀，去补13300的缺口。</p>\n<p>现在正好10月过去了，很多人可能没有看懂我们的分析，这里有必要去回顾下当时的预测。这三点预测是一个层层递进关系，基本重要板块的财报是关键的时间节点。</p>\n<p>第一点的预测是针对10月1日~10月14日没开启财报季的大盘，这点我们预测的可以说相当精准，股指在10月14日之前一直处在震荡下行状态，体现出市场对财报季的谨慎。</p>\n<p>第二点的预测是针对10月14日~25日的大盘，这个时候银行股财报已经公布了，但FAAMG的财报还没公布，市场的方向主要由银行板块决定，14日跳空上涨之后，我们在10月14日~25日这个阶段激进做多，这点的预测也可以说相当精准。</p>\n<p>第三点的预测是针对10月25日~30日的大盘，这个时候FAAMG的财报已经公布，整体业绩表现相当不错，三大股指也接近创下历史新高。按照我们的判断，机构会借助利好出货，回调可能要来了，但最后的结果却是加速上涨，周四创下历史新高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7736457d0e7c5a3fe4dc7e3bf68a4677\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>到这里，在10月28日这一天，我们对10月美股走势的判断，可以说宣告失败。纳指并没有开启预期中的双底调整，而是走出了相当强劲的V形反转。</p>\n<p>我们的预测为什么错了？因为<b>错误的低估了市场对巨头的热情</b>。在整个10月，TFAANMG等超级巨头开启了超级上升浪，光TSLA一家公司就给整个股指贡献了3个点左右的涨幅。</p>\n<p>如果你算上NVDA、MSFT、GOOG剩下的巨头。你会发现，光这八大巨头就给纳指贡献了接近7%的涨幅。想象一下，纳指在整个10月就涨了7.27%，八大巨头却贡献了7%的涨幅，等于剩下的公司基本是没涨没跌。</p>\n<p><b>如果我们把目光集中到Top 15的话，你会发现前十五大巨头给股指贡献了差不多8.3%的涨幅。这是一件更加可怕的事，意味着纳指100里面的剩下85家公司在10月给整个股指贡献的涨幅是负数，而且超过了1%的跌幅。</b></p>\n<p>如果我们看今年一年，纳指涨了20%左右，TFAAMG七大巨头给股指的贡献又是多少呢？简单粗略算了下，差不多贡献了21.15%的涨幅，如果进一步集中到Top 15的话，差不多要贡献26%左右的涨幅。</p>\n<p>说现在已经进入抱团时代，这一系列血淋淋的数据摆在这，相信没有人会去否认这个事实了。这就是我要在文章一开始要对10月的错误预测进行复盘的原因，因为实在是严重低估了美股抱团的决心。</p>\n<p>当前这一波行情，我们如果要用一个概念来总结的话，不妨可以叫“躺赢组合”。FAAMG是最稳健的大盘股，TSLA和NVDA是最优秀的成长股，这七大巨头覆盖了人类经济社会的方方面面，既有稳定的现金流，又有具有想象力前景的概念。</p>\n<p>FB是社交媒体最强王者、GOOG是数字广告最强王者、AMZN是电商最强王者、MSFT是软件服务的最强王者、AAPL是宇宙总龙头、TSLA是新能源最强王者、NVDA是芯片、元宇宙、AI的最强王者。</p>\n<p>TSLA在竞争对手纷纷遭遇芯片供应链危机和通胀成长上涨阶段，不仅实现了销量的逆势增长，反而实现了利润率的加速提升。</p>\n<p>AMZN和其他零售商一样遭到了严重通胀成本上涨危机，并且带来了40亿美元的影响，但AWS、Prime会员订阅、数字广告等利润率高的业务均在三季度加速增长。</p>\n<p>GOOG强劲的业绩告诉市场，虽然供应链危机让广告主减少了支出，但数字广告赛道增长仍然非常健康。FB遭到了同样的危险，但元宇宙的前景也值得投资人期待。</p>\n<p>AAPL受到了供应链影响，但这个影响也只有60亿美元，在一季度900亿美元的营收面前，这个影响可以忽略不计，更何况当前的iPhone 13正创下历史最好销量成绩单。</p>\n<p>NVDA的芯片仍然处在供不应求的阶段，即使供应链会导致成本上涨，但它们可以轻而易举的转移给下游的需求方。人工智能、大数据、自动驾驶等业务的高速发展，都告诉市场这家公司不会放缓增长。</p>\n<p>MSFT是唯一不受通胀影响的超级巨头，经济周期对其的影响几乎可以忽略不计，明年还有涨价15%的超级利好预期，增长仍然值得期待。</p>\n<p><b>TFAAMG强劲的三季度财报，让市场明白了一个道理，只有超级巨头才是真正可以抵抗通胀的</b>。我们去看看其他板块，却大多数都受到了影响，举三个比较数字的例子：</p>\n<p>一个是军工板块的蓝筹股LMT，三季度的财报就遇到了大雷；一个是消费板块的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>，三季度也受到了咖啡豆成本上涨的影响；另一个是运输板块的FDX，人力成本激增导致利润率出现了严重下滑。</p>\n<p>回到我们10月的预测，纳指为什么在FAAMG财报公布之后，不仅没有出现预期中的回调，反而突破了阻力位，创下了历史新高？这中间的导火索，主要是因为周四公布的GDP数据。</p>\n<p>据美国政府周四发布的一项报告，继第二季度消费者12%年增长率之后，三季度消费者支出的年增长率放缓至1.6% 。不仅低于今年二季度的6.7%，还低于市场保守预测的3.5%，为该国自2020年二季度暴跌以来最慢的增速。</p>\n<p><b>史无前例的放水之后，疫情蔓延、供应链瓶颈、居高不下的通胀，一个又一个棘手的难题正在拖垮着美国的经济增长。美联储又不可能回到去年那样的宽松状态，经济刺激的效果基本没太大作用了，整个社会即将迈入一个慢增长阶段。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f832007e9c17ca507e50ca27f3fa7bc8\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>历史是最好的老师，“躺赢组合”形成的原因，其实和上个世纪的“漂亮50”如出一辙，都是因为<b>经济在恶性通胀之后，即将进入一个存量竞争时代，只有超级巨头能通过抢夺竞争对手的市场份额获得宝贵的增长。</b></p>\n<p>三大股指在10月走出V形反转的形态，表面上看是FAAMG的业绩不错，带领着大盘持续上行，内在其实是「市场预期经济即将进入新的下行拐点，只有超级巨头能够保持增长，<b>在长期经济增长不确定的大环境中购买确定性，整体市场的估值体系正在发生转化</b>」</p>\n<p>那么问题来了，当年的抱团主要集中在消费医药板块，为什么现在却将更多的目光了科技板块。这其实又要说到另一个数据，那就是美国三季度的消费者商品支出数据：美国三季度消费者商品支出下降了9.2%。</p>\n<p>不同以往的货币宽松，这一轮的放水主要是疫情驱动，溢出的流动性基本全部流向了金融市场，而不是实体经济。美国人在这个阶段的资产价格确实增长了很多，但可支配的消费水平却是下滑的，尤其在美国政府停止发放救济补助之后。</p>\n<p>说的难听点，美国经济很可能要进入“滞涨”阶段，消费市场大概率是要萎缩的。这个时候，只有科技创新，或许才能改变未来的困境，也只有科技巨头还能保持持续增长。<b>当然，最重要的是，现在TFAANMG都是印钞机。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05654f9e10dbbcbd932a740cbb5d3575\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>历史给人类最大的教训，就是人类不肯接受历史的教训。</p>\n<p>当前这个市场，其实很简单了，你要么买入“躺赢组合”，既然跑不赢，那就加入它。要么就拿着那些受到通胀影响的公司，做<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>2年赚不到钱的准备。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股出现“躺赢组合”，和上世纪“漂亮50”如出一辙\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股研究社 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-02 18:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>从已经发布的美国关键企业财报来看，预期中暴雷是有的，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>都交出了不及预期的财报，但市场却并没有出现剧烈震荡，仍然相当平稳。</p>\n<p>甚至，本周伊始，三大股指均创下了历史新高！但细心的小伙伴们，应该发现了一件事，那就是<b>股指虽然涨的很好，但大多数个股都基本没涨，甚至还跌的相当惨。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08562759f8e47b65594797093bdcbc2a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>举几个重要的板块，金融支付板块，V单周暴跌8.42%、MA单周暴跌6.45%、PYPL收跌3.25%、AXP收跌7.11%、COF收跌10.02%，可以说远远跑输了大盘。再比如，工业军工板块。RTX单周收跌3.27%、GD单周收跌3.23%、NOC单周收跌12.06%，一直被当成稳健蓝筹的LMT更是放量暴跌11.29%。</p>\n<p>在正式对未来进行预测之前，还是先来复盘下，我们在10月的预测。在月初的时候，我写了一篇对10月的预测，整体观点可以总结成以下三点：</p>\n<p>1、当美股9月出现暴跌的时候，意味着机构对三季度财报相当谨慎，10月往往会有相当大的波动，而按照历史数据来看，再次出现回调的概率很高。10月14日之前，大盘会在低位继续震荡。</p>\n<p>2、14日之后，财报季开启，银行股财报决定大盘方向。如果财报暴雷，美股直接往下暴跌1000点，如果业绩很好，股指短期重新恢复上涨动能，然后继续等FAAMG五大巨公布财报。</p>\n<p>3、25日之后，FAAMG公布财报。如果FAAMG财报炸裂，股指创新高之后，机构会借助FAAMG财报出货，大盘走势会参照去年9月和今年2月，最后走出一个双底。如果FAAMG财报暴雷，纳指可能会往下暴跌，迎来戴维斯双杀，去补13300的缺口。</p>\n<p>现在正好10月过去了，很多人可能没有看懂我们的分析，这里有必要去回顾下当时的预测。这三点预测是一个层层递进关系，基本重要板块的财报是关键的时间节点。</p>\n<p>第一点的预测是针对10月1日~10月14日没开启财报季的大盘，这点我们预测的可以说相当精准，股指在10月14日之前一直处在震荡下行状态，体现出市场对财报季的谨慎。</p>\n<p>第二点的预测是针对10月14日~25日的大盘，这个时候银行股财报已经公布了，但FAAMG的财报还没公布，市场的方向主要由银行板块决定，14日跳空上涨之后，我们在10月14日~25日这个阶段激进做多，这点的预测也可以说相当精准。</p>\n<p>第三点的预测是针对10月25日~30日的大盘，这个时候FAAMG的财报已经公布，整体业绩表现相当不错，三大股指也接近创下历史新高。按照我们的判断，机构会借助利好出货，回调可能要来了，但最后的结果却是加速上涨，周四创下历史新高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7736457d0e7c5a3fe4dc7e3bf68a4677\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>到这里，在10月28日这一天，我们对10月美股走势的判断，可以说宣告失败。纳指并没有开启预期中的双底调整，而是走出了相当强劲的V形反转。</p>\n<p>我们的预测为什么错了？因为<b>错误的低估了市场对巨头的热情</b>。在整个10月，TFAANMG等超级巨头开启了超级上升浪，光TSLA一家公司就给整个股指贡献了3个点左右的涨幅。</p>\n<p>如果你算上NVDA、MSFT、GOOG剩下的巨头。你会发现，光这八大巨头就给纳指贡献了接近7%的涨幅。想象一下，纳指在整个10月就涨了7.27%，八大巨头却贡献了7%的涨幅，等于剩下的公司基本是没涨没跌。</p>\n<p><b>如果我们把目光集中到Top 15的话，你会发现前十五大巨头给股指贡献了差不多8.3%的涨幅。这是一件更加可怕的事，意味着纳指100里面的剩下85家公司在10月给整个股指贡献的涨幅是负数，而且超过了1%的跌幅。</b></p>\n<p>如果我们看今年一年，纳指涨了20%左右，TFAAMG七大巨头给股指的贡献又是多少呢？简单粗略算了下，差不多贡献了21.15%的涨幅，如果进一步集中到Top 15的话，差不多要贡献26%左右的涨幅。</p>\n<p>说现在已经进入抱团时代，这一系列血淋淋的数据摆在这，相信没有人会去否认这个事实了。这就是我要在文章一开始要对10月的错误预测进行复盘的原因，因为实在是严重低估了美股抱团的决心。</p>\n<p>当前这一波行情，我们如果要用一个概念来总结的话，不妨可以叫“躺赢组合”。FAAMG是最稳健的大盘股，TSLA和NVDA是最优秀的成长股，这七大巨头覆盖了人类经济社会的方方面面，既有稳定的现金流，又有具有想象力前景的概念。</p>\n<p>FB是社交媒体最强王者、GOOG是数字广告最强王者、AMZN是电商最强王者、MSFT是软件服务的最强王者、AAPL是宇宙总龙头、TSLA是新能源最强王者、NVDA是芯片、元宇宙、AI的最强王者。</p>\n<p>TSLA在竞争对手纷纷遭遇芯片供应链危机和通胀成长上涨阶段，不仅实现了销量的逆势增长，反而实现了利润率的加速提升。</p>\n<p>AMZN和其他零售商一样遭到了严重通胀成本上涨危机，并且带来了40亿美元的影响，但AWS、Prime会员订阅、数字广告等利润率高的业务均在三季度加速增长。</p>\n<p>GOOG强劲的业绩告诉市场，虽然供应链危机让广告主减少了支出，但数字广告赛道增长仍然非常健康。FB遭到了同样的危险，但元宇宙的前景也值得投资人期待。</p>\n<p>AAPL受到了供应链影响，但这个影响也只有60亿美元，在一季度900亿美元的营收面前，这个影响可以忽略不计，更何况当前的iPhone 13正创下历史最好销量成绩单。</p>\n<p>NVDA的芯片仍然处在供不应求的阶段，即使供应链会导致成本上涨，但它们可以轻而易举的转移给下游的需求方。人工智能、大数据、自动驾驶等业务的高速发展，都告诉市场这家公司不会放缓增长。</p>\n<p>MSFT是唯一不受通胀影响的超级巨头，经济周期对其的影响几乎可以忽略不计，明年还有涨价15%的超级利好预期，增长仍然值得期待。</p>\n<p><b>TFAAMG强劲的三季度财报，让市场明白了一个道理，只有超级巨头才是真正可以抵抗通胀的</b>。我们去看看其他板块，却大多数都受到了影响，举三个比较数字的例子：</p>\n<p>一个是军工板块的蓝筹股LMT，三季度的财报就遇到了大雷；一个是消费板块的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>，三季度也受到了咖啡豆成本上涨的影响；另一个是运输板块的FDX，人力成本激增导致利润率出现了严重下滑。</p>\n<p>回到我们10月的预测，纳指为什么在FAAMG财报公布之后，不仅没有出现预期中的回调，反而突破了阻力位，创下了历史新高？这中间的导火索，主要是因为周四公布的GDP数据。</p>\n<p>据美国政府周四发布的一项报告，继第二季度消费者12%年增长率之后，三季度消费者支出的年增长率放缓至1.6% 。不仅低于今年二季度的6.7%，还低于市场保守预测的3.5%，为该国自2020年二季度暴跌以来最慢的增速。</p>\n<p><b>史无前例的放水之后，疫情蔓延、供应链瓶颈、居高不下的通胀，一个又一个棘手的难题正在拖垮着美国的经济增长。美联储又不可能回到去年那样的宽松状态，经济刺激的效果基本没太大作用了，整个社会即将迈入一个慢增长阶段。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f832007e9c17ca507e50ca27f3fa7bc8\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>历史是最好的老师，“躺赢组合”形成的原因，其实和上个世纪的“漂亮50”如出一辙，都是因为<b>经济在恶性通胀之后，即将进入一个存量竞争时代，只有超级巨头能通过抢夺竞争对手的市场份额获得宝贵的增长。</b></p>\n<p>三大股指在10月走出V形反转的形态，表面上看是FAAMG的业绩不错，带领着大盘持续上行，内在其实是「市场预期经济即将进入新的下行拐点，只有超级巨头能够保持增长，<b>在长期经济增长不确定的大环境中购买确定性，整体市场的估值体系正在发生转化</b>」</p>\n<p>那么问题来了，当年的抱团主要集中在消费医药板块，为什么现在却将更多的目光了科技板块。这其实又要说到另一个数据，那就是美国三季度的消费者商品支出数据：美国三季度消费者商品支出下降了9.2%。</p>\n<p>不同以往的货币宽松，这一轮的放水主要是疫情驱动，溢出的流动性基本全部流向了金融市场，而不是实体经济。美国人在这个阶段的资产价格确实增长了很多，但可支配的消费水平却是下滑的，尤其在美国政府停止发放救济补助之后。</p>\n<p>说的难听点，美国经济很可能要进入“滞涨”阶段，消费市场大概率是要萎缩的。这个时候，只有科技创新，或许才能改变未来的困境，也只有科技巨头还能保持持续增长。<b>当然，最重要的是，现在TFAANMG都是印钞机。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05654f9e10dbbcbd932a740cbb5d3575\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>历史给人类最大的教训，就是人类不肯接受历史的教训。</p>\n<p>当前这个市场，其实很简单了，你要么买入“躺赢组合”，既然跑不赢，那就加入它。要么就拿着那些受到通胀影响的公司，做<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>2年赚不到钱的准备。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189655201","content_text":"从已经发布的美国关键企业财报来看，预期中暴雷是有的，Facebook、亚马逊和苹果都交出了不及预期的财报，但市场却并没有出现剧烈震荡，仍然相当平稳。\n甚至，本周伊始，三大股指均创下了历史新高！但细心的小伙伴们，应该发现了一件事，那就是股指虽然涨的很好，但大多数个股都基本没涨，甚至还跌的相当惨。\n\n举几个重要的板块，金融支付板块，V单周暴跌8.42%、MA单周暴跌6.45%、PYPL收跌3.25%、AXP收跌7.11%、COF收跌10.02%，可以说远远跑输了大盘。再比如，工业军工板块。RTX单周收跌3.27%、GD单周收跌3.23%、NOC单周收跌12.06%，一直被当成稳健蓝筹的LMT更是放量暴跌11.29%。\n在正式对未来进行预测之前，还是先来复盘下，我们在10月的预测。在月初的时候，我写了一篇对10月的预测，整体观点可以总结成以下三点：\n1、当美股9月出现暴跌的时候，意味着机构对三季度财报相当谨慎，10月往往会有相当大的波动，而按照历史数据来看，再次出现回调的概率很高。10月14日之前，大盘会在低位继续震荡。\n2、14日之后，财报季开启，银行股财报决定大盘方向。如果财报暴雷，美股直接往下暴跌1000点，如果业绩很好，股指短期重新恢复上涨动能，然后继续等FAAMG五大巨公布财报。\n3、25日之后，FAAMG公布财报。如果FAAMG财报炸裂，股指创新高之后，机构会借助FAAMG财报出货，大盘走势会参照去年9月和今年2月，最后走出一个双底。如果FAAMG财报暴雷，纳指可能会往下暴跌，迎来戴维斯双杀，去补13300的缺口。\n现在正好10月过去了，很多人可能没有看懂我们的分析，这里有必要去回顾下当时的预测。这三点预测是一个层层递进关系，基本重要板块的财报是关键的时间节点。\n第一点的预测是针对10月1日~10月14日没开启财报季的大盘，这点我们预测的可以说相当精准，股指在10月14日之前一直处在震荡下行状态，体现出市场对财报季的谨慎。\n第二点的预测是针对10月14日~25日的大盘，这个时候银行股财报已经公布了，但FAAMG的财报还没公布，市场的方向主要由银行板块决定，14日跳空上涨之后，我们在10月14日~25日这个阶段激进做多，这点的预测也可以说相当精准。\n第三点的预测是针对10月25日~30日的大盘，这个时候FAAMG的财报已经公布，整体业绩表现相当不错，三大股指也接近创下历史新高。按照我们的判断，机构会借助利好出货，回调可能要来了，但最后的结果却是加速上涨，周四创下历史新高。\n\n到这里，在10月28日这一天，我们对10月美股走势的判断，可以说宣告失败。纳指并没有开启预期中的双底调整，而是走出了相当强劲的V形反转。\n我们的预测为什么错了？因为错误的低估了市场对巨头的热情。在整个10月，TFAANMG等超级巨头开启了超级上升浪，光TSLA一家公司就给整个股指贡献了3个点左右的涨幅。\n如果你算上NVDA、MSFT、GOOG剩下的巨头。你会发现，光这八大巨头就给纳指贡献了接近7%的涨幅。想象一下，纳指在整个10月就涨了7.27%，八大巨头却贡献了7%的涨幅，等于剩下的公司基本是没涨没跌。\n如果我们把目光集中到Top 15的话，你会发现前十五大巨头给股指贡献了差不多8.3%的涨幅。这是一件更加可怕的事，意味着纳指100里面的剩下85家公司在10月给整个股指贡献的涨幅是负数，而且超过了1%的跌幅。\n如果我们看今年一年，纳指涨了20%左右，TFAAMG七大巨头给股指的贡献又是多少呢？简单粗略算了下，差不多贡献了21.15%的涨幅，如果进一步集中到Top 15的话，差不多要贡献26%左右的涨幅。\n说现在已经进入抱团时代，这一系列血淋淋的数据摆在这，相信没有人会去否认这个事实了。这就是我要在文章一开始要对10月的错误预测进行复盘的原因，因为实在是严重低估了美股抱团的决心。\n当前这一波行情，我们如果要用一个概念来总结的话，不妨可以叫“躺赢组合”。FAAMG是最稳健的大盘股，TSLA和NVDA是最优秀的成长股，这七大巨头覆盖了人类经济社会的方方面面，既有稳定的现金流，又有具有想象力前景的概念。\nFB是社交媒体最强王者、GOOG是数字广告最强王者、AMZN是电商最强王者、MSFT是软件服务的最强王者、AAPL是宇宙总龙头、TSLA是新能源最强王者、NVDA是芯片、元宇宙、AI的最强王者。\nTSLA在竞争对手纷纷遭遇芯片供应链危机和通胀成长上涨阶段，不仅实现了销量的逆势增长，反而实现了利润率的加速提升。\nAMZN和其他零售商一样遭到了严重通胀成本上涨危机，并且带来了40亿美元的影响，但AWS、Prime会员订阅、数字广告等利润率高的业务均在三季度加速增长。\nGOOG强劲的业绩告诉市场，虽然供应链危机让广告主减少了支出，但数字广告赛道增长仍然非常健康。FB遭到了同样的危险，但元宇宙的前景也值得投资人期待。\nAAPL受到了供应链影响，但这个影响也只有60亿美元，在一季度900亿美元的营收面前，这个影响可以忽略不计，更何况当前的iPhone 13正创下历史最好销量成绩单。\nNVDA的芯片仍然处在供不应求的阶段，即使供应链会导致成本上涨，但它们可以轻而易举的转移给下游的需求方。人工智能、大数据、自动驾驶等业务的高速发展，都告诉市场这家公司不会放缓增长。\nMSFT是唯一不受通胀影响的超级巨头，经济周期对其的影响几乎可以忽略不计，明年还有涨价15%的超级利好预期，增长仍然值得期待。\nTFAAMG强劲的三季度财报，让市场明白了一个道理，只有超级巨头才是真正可以抵抗通胀的。我们去看看其他板块，却大多数都受到了影响，举三个比较数字的例子：\n一个是军工板块的蓝筹股LMT，三季度的财报就遇到了大雷；一个是消费板块的星巴克，三季度也受到了咖啡豆成本上涨的影响；另一个是运输板块的FDX，人力成本激增导致利润率出现了严重下滑。\n回到我们10月的预测，纳指为什么在FAAMG财报公布之后，不仅没有出现预期中的回调，反而突破了阻力位，创下了历史新高？这中间的导火索，主要是因为周四公布的GDP数据。\n据美国政府周四发布的一项报告，继第二季度消费者12%年增长率之后，三季度消费者支出的年增长率放缓至1.6% 。不仅低于今年二季度的6.7%，还低于市场保守预测的3.5%，为该国自2020年二季度暴跌以来最慢的增速。\n史无前例的放水之后，疫情蔓延、供应链瓶颈、居高不下的通胀，一个又一个棘手的难题正在拖垮着美国的经济增长。美联储又不可能回到去年那样的宽松状态，经济刺激的效果基本没太大作用了，整个社会即将迈入一个慢增长阶段。\n\n历史是最好的老师，“躺赢组合”形成的原因，其实和上个世纪的“漂亮50”如出一辙，都是因为经济在恶性通胀之后，即将进入一个存量竞争时代，只有超级巨头能通过抢夺竞争对手的市场份额获得宝贵的增长。\n三大股指在10月走出V形反转的形态，表面上看是FAAMG的业绩不错，带领着大盘持续上行，内在其实是「市场预期经济即将进入新的下行拐点，只有超级巨头能够保持增长，在长期经济增长不确定的大环境中购买确定性，整体市场的估值体系正在发生转化」\n那么问题来了，当年的抱团主要集中在消费医药板块，为什么现在却将更多的目光了科技板块。这其实又要说到另一个数据，那就是美国三季度的消费者商品支出数据：美国三季度消费者商品支出下降了9.2%。\n不同以往的货币宽松，这一轮的放水主要是疫情驱动，溢出的流动性基本全部流向了金融市场，而不是实体经济。美国人在这个阶段的资产价格确实增长了很多，但可支配的消费水平却是下滑的，尤其在美国政府停止发放救济补助之后。\n说的难听点，美国经济很可能要进入“滞涨”阶段，消费市场大概率是要萎缩的。这个时候，只有科技创新，或许才能改变未来的困境，也只有科技巨头还能保持持续增长。当然，最重要的是，现在TFAANMG都是印钞机。\n\n历史给人类最大的教训，就是人类不肯接受历史的教训。\n当前这个市场，其实很简单了，你要么买入“躺赢组合”，既然跑不赢，那就加入它。要么就拿着那些受到通胀影响的公司，做好未来2年赚不到钱的准备。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841090050,"gmtCreate":1635861772763,"gmtModify":1635861772763,"author":{"id":"3552858791947065","authorId":"3552858791947065","name":"Jayda","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPLG\">$SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$</a>Buy and hold","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPLG\">$SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$</a>Buy and hold","text":"$SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$Buy and hold","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3818a4be2866cb2c8ae0641581befd72","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841090050","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848045754,"gmtCreate":1635950152519,"gmtModify":1635950152519,"author":{"id":"3552858791947065","authorId":"3552858791947065","name":"Jayda","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LITE\">$Lumentum Holdings Inc.(LITE)$</a>Keep it?","listText":"<a 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Corp.(HYLN)$ Omg","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53150c55093a6ee073763fc4ed8858ea","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825068546","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864811553,"gmtCreate":1633086963567,"gmtModify":1633086963567,"author":{"id":"3552858791947065","authorId":"3552858791947065","name":"Jayda","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QYLD\">$Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF(QYLD)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QYLD\">$Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF(QYLD)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;","text":"$Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF(QYLD)$[得意]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc8757e8cc3840c4a00b8202cc057d0a","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864811553","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862871209,"gmtCreate":1632872741980,"gmtModify":1632872741980,"author":{"id":"3552858791947065","authorId":"3552858791947065","name":"Jayda","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HYLN\">$Hyliion Holdings Corp.(HYLN)$</a>Up and down","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HYLN\">$Hyliion Holdings Corp.(HYLN)$</a>Up and down","text":"$Hyliion Holdings Corp.(HYLN)$Up and 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新東方(EDU)$</a>[喷血]&nbsp;","text":"$新東方(EDU)$[喷血]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/768059bfe0820aed0359865871d8ced4","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888903643","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":880077468,"gmtCreate":1631004606054,"gmtModify":1631004606054,"author":{"id":"3552858791947065","authorId":"3552858791947065","name":"Jayda","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"利害","listText":"利害","text":"利害","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880077468","repostId":"1190268789","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1190268789","pubTimestamp":1630985827,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190268789?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 11:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"小i机器人向法院申请禁售iPhone，索赔100亿元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190268789","media":"界面新闻","summary":"上海市高级人民法院已接受小i提出的禁令申请，案件持续审理中。","content":"<div>\n<p>记者 佘晓晨\n近日，小i机器人（上海智臻智能网络科技股份有限公司）向上海市高级人民法院提出行为保全申请（禁令），要求苹果公司立即停止涉及Siri的专利侵权，停止生产、销售、许诺销售、进口、使用，侵犯ZL200410053749.9发明专利的iPhone产品。上海市高级人民法院已于昨日接受小i提出的禁令申请，案件持续审理中。\n此前，中华人民共和国最高人民法院下达（2017）最高法行再34号行政判决书...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6569388.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"jm","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小i机器人向法院申请禁售iPhone，索赔100亿元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小i机器人向法院申请禁售iPhone，索赔100亿元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-07 11:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.jiemian.com/article/6569388.html><strong>界面新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>记者 佘晓晨\n近日，小i机器人（上海智臻智能网络科技股份有限公司）向上海市高级人民法院提出行为保全申请（禁令），要求苹果公司立即停止涉及Siri的专利侵权，停止生产、销售、许诺销售、进口、使用，侵犯ZL200410053749.9发明专利的iPhone产品。上海市高级人民法院已于昨日接受小i提出的禁令申请，案件持续审理中。\n此前，中华人民共和国最高人民法院下达（2017）最高法行再34号行政判决书...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6569388.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/275844f4baec1cdf60dd0a969b6b4fc3","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6569388.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190268789","content_text":"记者 佘晓晨\n近日，小i机器人（上海智臻智能网络科技股份有限公司）向上海市高级人民法院提出行为保全申请（禁令），要求苹果公司立即停止涉及Siri的专利侵权，停止生产、销售、许诺销售、进口、使用，侵犯ZL200410053749.9发明专利的iPhone产品。上海市高级人民法院已于昨日接受小i提出的禁令申请，案件持续审理中。\n此前，中华人民共和国最高人民法院下达（2017）最高法行再34号行政判决书，终审判决苹果电脑贸易（上海）有限公司败诉，确认小i机器人上述专利权的有效性。去年8月，小i机器人向上海市高级人民法院提起诉讼，正式要求苹果公司停止专利侵权，并赔偿人民币100亿元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609606229,"gmtCreate":1638273637470,"gmtModify":1638273637470,"author":{"id":"3552858791947065","authorId":"3552858791947065","name":"Jayda","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609606229","repostId":"2187018993","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2187018993","pubTimestamp":1638270731,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2187018993?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-30 19:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“奥密克戎恐慌”以来，鲍威尔首次表态 ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2187018993","media":"市场资讯","summary":"为周二参院听证会准备的讲稿中，鲍威尔表示，对新病毒变种的担忧可能 “降低人们亲自工作的意愿，这将减缓劳动力市场的进展，并加剧供应链的混乱”。\n美东时间11月29日周一，美联储主席鲍威尔在美国参议院听证","content":"<p>为周二参院听证会准备的讲稿中，鲍威尔表示，对新病毒变种的担忧可能 “降低人们亲自工作的意愿，这将减缓劳动力市场的进展，并加剧供应链的混乱”。</p>\n<p>美东时间11月29日周一，美联储主席鲍威尔在美国参议院听证会中首次评价新冠病毒带来的影响，并表示新冠变体奥密克戎加重美国经济风险和通胀不确定性。</p>\n<blockquote>\n 最近新冠病例的增加和奥密克戎变体的出现给就业和经济活动带来了下行风险，并增加了通货膨胀的不确定性。对病毒的更大担忧可能会降低人们亲自工作的意愿，这将减缓劳动力市场的进展，加剧供应链的混乱。\n</blockquote>\n<p>鲍威尔还对通货膨胀发表了更直接的评论，他说，预测供应限制的持续性和影响具有挑战性，但现在看来，“推动通货膨胀上升的因素将持续到明年”。</p>\n<blockquote>\n 与疫情有关的供需失衡导致一些地区的价格明显上涨。供应链问题使生产商难以满足强劲的需求，特别是对货物的需求。能源价格和租金的增加也推动了通货膨胀的上升。因此，总体通胀率远远高于我们2%的长期目标，在截至10月的12个月中，个人消费支出的价格指数上升了5%。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 包括美联储在内的大多数预测者继续预期，随着供需失衡的缓解，通货膨胀将在明年大幅下降。很难预测供应限制的持久性和影响，但现在看来，推动通胀上升的因素将在明年继续存在。此外，随着劳动力市场的迅速改善，松弛现象正在减少，工资正在快速上升。\n</blockquote>\n<p>在鲍威尔首次公开置评奥密克戎毒株，称其恐将加重美国经济风险和通胀不确定性后，美国10年期国债收益率下跌逾3个基点，刷新日低至1.5038%，两年期美债收益率短线跳水，日内整体转跌，并跌穿0.5%整数位心理关口，最低触及0.4961%。</p>\n<p>根据CME集团的FedWatch显示，上周约有25%的投资者表示，他们认为美联储在2022年6月仍会将利率维持在零附近，而其他75%的投资者则押注美联储届时将至少加息一次。由于新的病毒变体，这一价差后来有所缩小，现在约有35%的投资者押注美联储在2022年6月仍会将利率维持在零附近。</p>\n<p>上周五，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌900点，10年期国债收益率周五下跌15个基点至1.49%，市场在周一出现了一些反弹。</p>\n<p>此前，华尔街见闻稍早文章曾提及，在新变异病毒Omicron出现后，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克淡化了其对美国经济的风险，并表示他愿意以更快的速度缩减购债规模，以控制通胀。</p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“奥密克戎恐慌”以来，鲍威尔首次表态 </title>\n<style 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href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/forexinfo/2021-11-30/doc-ikyamrmy5879917.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bb78864fa7cf9ff3f09b0662054cf75","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 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与疫情有关的供需失衡导致一些地区的价格明显上涨。供应链问题使生产商难以满足强劲的需求，特别是对货物的需求。能源价格和租金的增加也推动了通货膨胀的上升。因此，总体通胀率远远高于我们2%的长期目标，在截至10月的12个月中，个人消费支出的价格指数上升了5%。\n\n\n 包括美联储在内的大多数预测者继续预期，随着供需失衡的缓解，通货膨胀将在明年大幅下降。很难预测供应限制的持久性和影响，但现在看来，推动通胀上升的因素将在明年继续存在。此外，随着劳动力市场的迅速改善，松弛现象正在减少，工资正在快速上升。\n\n在鲍威尔首次公开置评奥密克戎毒株，称其恐将加重美国经济风险和通胀不确定性后，美国10年期国债收益率下跌逾3个基点，刷新日低至1.5038%，两年期美债收益率短线跳水，日内整体转跌，并跌穿0.5%整数位心理关口，最低触及0.4961%。\n根据CME集团的FedWatch显示，上周约有25%的投资者表示，他们认为美联储在2022年6月仍会将利率维持在零附近，而其他75%的投资者则押注美联储届时将至少加息一次。由于新的病毒变体，这一价差后来有所缩小，现在约有35%的投资者押注美联储在2022年6月仍会将利率维持在零附近。\n上周五，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌900点，10年期国债收益率周五下跌15个基点至1.49%，市场在周一出现了一些反弹。\n此前，华尔街见闻稍早文章曾提及，在新变异病毒Omicron出现后，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克淡化了其对美国经济的风险，并表示他愿意以更快的速度缩减购债规模，以控制通胀。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870248912,"gmtCreate":1636626847347,"gmtModify":1636626847347,"author":{"id":"3552858791947065","authorId":"3552858791947065","name":"Jayda","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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