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FunnyWong
坚定做多中国🇨🇳
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FunnyWong
2024-04-22
$英伟达(NVDA)$
这么简单的逻辑都看不懂? ai只有服务于实体经济形成正反馈提升生产效率和服务效率,然后不断充实数据大模型,给更多细分领域赋能,才是出路。美国欧洲一没有实体二技术壁垒逐渐被打破,且看中国一季度ai芯片进口量暴跌,英伟达还如何有未来?
FunnyWong
06-13
完全认同
严防马斯克割韭菜!美参议员致信SEC:必须叫停SpaceX上市!(附12页信函)
FunnyWong
2024-11-24
应该问一下 AI的各种应用以及大模型在美国如何变现 什么时候可以变现,而不是年复一年的说今年技术又进步了多少倍[贱笑] [吃瓜]
黄仁勋最新万字对话:英伟达十年将计算边际成本降低100万倍
FunnyWong
2024-04-20
乔布斯在天有灵看到这 会伤感哭泣吧
苹果遭抛弃!数位高管卖出股票,今年至今跌超15%
FunnyWong
2024-03-19
$英伟达(NVDA)$
像极了0几年的美股互联网泡沫,如出一辙,不同的是如今美国的制造业跟0几年简直差天共地。没有实体经济作为基本盘的AI只是空中楼阁,随时坍塌。
FunnyWong
2023-04-05
5年内被中芯55分市场,10年内必被全面超越
财报前瞻 | 台积电已没想象力?市场预测Q1营收减幅恐大于预期
FunnyWong
2023-03-31
美元霸权正在倒塌中
美联储资产负债表规模终于下降!但第二波银行挤兑开始?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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09:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"严防马斯克割韭菜!美参议员致信SEC:必须叫停SpaceX上市!(附12页信函)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2642537392","media":"市场资讯","summary":" 2026年6月11日,就在SpaceX距离正式登陆纳斯达克仅剩不到24小时之际,一封火药味十足的12页信函直抵美国证券交易委员会。她在信中措辞激烈地要求SEC:必须推迟SpaceX的IPO上市,这场“史上最大规模IPO”对投资者保护和市场完整性构成了前所未有的威胁。 这话听起来刺耳,但细看SpaceX的上市设计,你会发现沃伦的担忧绝非杞人忧天。但SpaceX反其道而行之,将30%的IPO份额分配给散户,金额高达225亿美元。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> 来源:财经会议圈</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/93/w550h343/20260612/c59a-ca4d9fe3735d970a16c53a05c0fe5f26.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Center\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\">拆解史上最大IPO背后的资本收割游戏</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 华盛顿的“拦路虎”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 2026年6月11日,就在SpaceX距离正式登陆<span>纳斯达克</span><span></span>仅剩不到24小时之际,一封火药味十足的12页信函直抵美国证券交易委员会(SEC)。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">发信人不是别人,正是以“华尔街死敌”著称的民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)。她在信中措辞激烈地要求SEC:</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">必须推迟SpaceX的IPO上市,这场“史上最大规模IPO”对投资者保护和市场完整性构成了前所未有的威胁。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 沃伦在信中写下了一句振聋发聩的警告:</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">“你们必须推迟该登记声明的生效时间。SpaceX的IPO创造了一个新问题:它正在操纵主要的股市指数,强迫数百万投资指数基金的普通散户在别无选择的情况下,被迫承担SpaceX的巨大风险。”</font></p>\n</blockquote>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 这话听起来刺耳,但细看SpaceX的上市设计,你会发现沃伦的担忧绝非杞人忧天。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/60/w550h310/20260612/bc00-d5d0086fb9102431b46de8278b95c3db.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 离谱的“一口价”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 135美元的爱买不买</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 传统IPO的玩法,大家都懂:投行先给一个价格区间,比如100-120美元,然后根据市场认购情况最终定价,这叫“价格发现”。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">但SpaceX不玩这一套。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 它直接甩出135美元/股的“一口价”,爱买不买。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 这在华尔街历史上极为罕见。一家公司估值高达1.75万亿-2万亿美元,却连最基本的市场博弈定价环节都省了,摆明了就是<font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">“我说多少就是多少”。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color0\">更离谱的是散户分配比例。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">美股常规IPO,散户份额通常只有<font cms-style=\"font-L color0\">5%-10%</font>,绝大多数份额都会留给长期持有的机构基石投资者。但SpaceX反其道而行之,将</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color0\">30%的IPO份额分配给散户</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">,金额高达<font cms-style=\"font-L color0\">225亿美元</font>。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 外界普遍吹捧这是“让利散户、共享红利”,但内行看门道:</p>\n<ul cms-style=\"ul\">\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">机构投资者追求长期稳定、风险可控,是市场的压舱石;</font></p>\n</li>\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">散户受情绪、舆论、偶像滤镜驱动,盲目跟风、追涨杀跌,波动率极高。</font></p>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 马斯克拥有庞大的粉丝群体,他们会自发造势、无脑买入,短期强行推高股价。但后续只要出现任何负面舆情,即便公司基本面毫无变化,股价也会因为散户情绪崩塌而大幅跳水。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">参考历史案例</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">Robinhood</a>曾将35%新股份额分给散户,上市后被散户爆炒至85美元,热度褪去后半年暴跌至15美元,高位接盘散户全线深套。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">SpaceX本次散户占比极高,未来必然复刻同款走势:</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">短期情绪拉涨,长期散户买单。</font></font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/143/w550h393/20260612/c13b-c92bf93c34bda9a4d248151d854a6d91.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 估值泡沫</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 市销率100倍的天方夜谭</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX的估值到底有多离谱?我们来看看硬数据。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">2025年,SpaceX全年营收187亿美元,估值却突破1.75万亿美元,市销率接近100倍。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 做个对比:</p>\n<ul cms-style=\"ul\">\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">AI龙头Anthropic估值近万亿美元,市销率仅21倍;</p>\n</li>\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">OpenAI市销率也只有34倍;</p>\n</li>\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">这两家AI企业的营收增速,远高于SpaceX,估值倍数却远低于它。</p>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">对比之下就能发现,所谓的AI泡沫,和SpaceX的估值泡沫相比,</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">根本不值一提</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">更夸张的是,招股书中宣称公司远期潜在市场规模(TAM)高达</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">28.5万亿美元</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">。这个数字是什么概念?远超中国全年20万亿级的GDP体量,完全脱离现实商业逻辑,纯属夸张造势。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 还有马斯克的薪酬解锁条件:授予其10亿股、价值约6000亿美元的股权,解锁要求包括:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">公司市值突破7.5万亿美元;</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">完成火星移民核心布局;</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">在火星落地100万常住人口。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 这在任何理性投资者看来,都是天方夜谭。但这就是投行的基本功:用专业模型、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">海量数据</a>、行业术语,把虚无缥缈的故事包装得逻辑自洽、看似可行。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> “包子式”包装</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 用星链包裹xAI的资本游戏</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 从一线ECM投行分析师的内行视角来看,SpaceX的估值逻辑本质上是一套“层层嵌套打包”模式:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">用盈利稳定、现金流优质的星链业务,包裹业绩惨淡、无法独立上市的xAI业务,形成“优质资产兜底、劣质资产挂靠”的包子式结构。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 来看2025年的真实财务数据:</p>\n<ul cms-style=\"ul\">\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">星链部门</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">:收入114亿美元,盈利72亿美元(唯一优质资产);</font></font></p>\n</li>\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">火箭发射部门</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">:收入41亿美元,亏损6.62亿美元;</font></font></p>\n</li>\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">xAI部门</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">:收入13亿美元,亏损130亿美元(纯纯的包袱)。</font></font></p>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 看似三大核心业务协同发力,实则只有星链是核心盈利资产,其余业务均为亏损包袱。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 这套打包模式还实现了“废物利用、税务套利”:xAI常年持续亏损,单独运营会导致大量税务抵扣额度作废。而通过整体打包上市,所有亏损额度均可并入主体财报,合法抵扣利润、降低整体税负。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">这就是华尔街的真实玩法:所谓的公允估值、专业模型,从来不是测算出来的,而是机构之间反复扯皮、博弈、妥协出来的“市场公约数”。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 纳斯达克的“规则特供”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 被动资金接盘局</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">为了确保上市成功,这次IPO的设计可谓是煞费苦心,其中最争议的莫过于</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">纳斯达克专门为SpaceX修改规则</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">规则修改内容</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">:</font>将纳入纳斯达克100指数的时间从3个月缩短至15天,而且是加权纳入(权重不合理拉高3倍)。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 这意味着什么?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">美国有大量被动指数基金、养老基金、401K退休金账户,会</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">自动买入</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">纳斯达克100成分股。也就是说,只要熬过15天,就可以用</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">老<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">百姓的养老金来给SpaceX接盘了</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">据测算,仅被动基金强制配置的资金就高达</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">100-200亿美元</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 精明的资金早已提前布局:提前低价建仓,等待指数纳入、被动资金进场后高位套现。叠加散户狂热抢购、主动基金布局、中东热钱涌入,上市初期流通股稀缺,股价必然被暴力拉升,制造极致的赚钱效应。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">这场狂欢的终极剧本,早已注定</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">:</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 上市拉升后,马斯克、早期股东、核心员工会通过新股增发、股票质押贷款等方式持续套现(马斯克历来偏好质押套现,<span>特斯拉</span><span></span>时期亦是如此)。内部利益方离场完毕后,股价终将回归基本面,所有浮亏、泡沫风险,全部由后进场的机构和散户承接。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">而这些机构资金,本质也是普通人的</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">养老钱、理财钱</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 星链业务遇瓶颈</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 对美军“趁火打劫”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 很多人不知道的是,星链业务已经触及瓶颈,连带火箭发射业务的未来订单也存疑。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">来看数据</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">:</font></p>\n<ul cms-style=\"ul\">\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">2025年一季度,星链用户规模1030万,比去年翻了一倍,但前一年可是翻了三倍的,</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">增速明显下滑</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">;</font></font></p>\n</li>\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">更可怕的是增长是怎么来的?平均每用户收入(ARPU)从2023年的99美元/月降到2024年的91美元,再降到2025年的80美元,到2025年一季度已经</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">暴降至66美元</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">。</font></font></p>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 完全是靠降价换量、打价格战!</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 原因不难理解:如果你住在纽约、东京、上海,根本不会用星链。星链就是给偏远地区用的,但偏远地区之所以偏远,就是因为人少。To C端增长见顶了。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">那怎么办?只能对军方涨价。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">前段时间美军在战场大量使用名为“卢卡斯”的一次性无人机,内置星链终端。前线激战正酣,SpaceX突然要求将网络费用</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">翻5倍</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">,从原先的5000美元/月直接涨到25000美元/月。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 理由是:你原本买的是“地面套餐”,实际用在飞行器上,就得按“飞行器套餐”付款。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 结果服软的居然是美军!媒体询问负责人,他只说SpaceX依然是“稳固可靠的长期合作伙伴”。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">这件事充分说明:</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">SpaceX已经具备对军方的议价能力,但这也暴露出其实体业务增长乏力的尴尬现实。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 沃伦的三大“地雷”指控</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 沃伦在致SEC的信中,详细列举了SpaceX在财务和治理上的三大“地雷”:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> 1. xAI收购案可能存在会计造假或估值误导</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX收购马斯克另一家公司xAI的过程中,交易定价是否公允?是否存在通过关联交易转移利益?这些问题都需要SEC彻查。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> 2. 马斯克个人利益与公司利益存在严重冲突</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 马斯克同时是SpaceX和xAI的大股东,两家公司之间的交易,本质上是“左手倒右手”。这种利益输送的风险,在IPO招股书中是否被充分披露?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> 3. 马斯克在公司内部拥有独断专行的权力,缺乏有效制衡</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">目前马斯克手握SpaceX </font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">82%的投票权</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">,意味着这家近2万亿估值的行业巨头,完全由他一人掌控,没有任何机构或股东能够制衡、干预。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">成也创始人,险也创始人。</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"> 过去两年,马斯克极度痴迷AI和太空数据中心赛道,这意味着未来很长一段时间,SpaceX将持续投入巨额资本用于新业务研发和布局,重资产投入之下,战略失误、投入失败的风险极高。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 资本慌乱</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 为什么急着上市?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 很多人会问:SpaceX明明可以不用上市,为什么马斯克这么着急?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">答案很简单:</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">这不是企业发展需要,而是资本的集体慌乱。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">原因一:全球风投行业迎来数十年最严峻的退出危机</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 世界经济论坛5月发布的最新数据显示:</p>\n<ul cms-style=\"ul\">\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">当前全球未上市的独角兽企业中,20%已成立超15年,59%已成立超10年;</p>\n</li>\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">企业从种子轮到首轮退出的周期,相比2022年拉长了45%。</p>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 行业常规规则里,风投基金对LP的承诺退出周期仅为10年。这意味着,超半数独角兽早已超出约定退出期限,大量风投资金长期被套牢。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">原因二:AI行业极度烧钱,融资窗口期短暂</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> OpenAI去年亏损超80亿美元,Anthropic去年亏损超30亿美元,且两家企业未来数年仍将持续大额烧钱。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">业内普遍认为,</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">AI行业泡沫已然存在</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">,只是没人能精准预判破裂时间。马斯克急于落地IPO,就是为了抢占高位窗口期,锁定万亿估值,提前规避后续市场下跌风险。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">原因三:抢占AI资本红利的末班车</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 当下是全球市场对AI概念溢价最高、资金最狂热的阶段。SpaceX抢先完成IPO,能够率先吸干华尔街所有AI+太空赛道的增量资金。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">高端资本博弈向来朴素:先到先得、先上市先收割。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 三个阶段:看清洗牌时刻</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX上市必须看准三个阶段:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> 第一阶段:看上市当天能否不破发</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 如果流通盘这么小(仅释放5%股份)、承销团这么强、机构认购这么热还能破发,说明市场其实已经虚透了。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> 第二阶段:看上市后15到30天</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 能否顺利纳入纳斯达克100指数,把筹码成功交给被动基金(养老金)。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> 第三阶段:看半年后大股东解禁</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 5%的流通比例意味着95%的股份在IPO时处于锁定状态。半年后(12月初),这些股份将解除锁定。那些在几十亿、几百亿估值时入场的早期股东,将面临十几倍、几十倍甚至上百倍的暴利退出机会。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">那将是怎样的一场腥风血雨?</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 谁是最大的赢家?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 这场顶级资本盛宴里,收益圈层极度分化。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">真正的赢家只有三类:</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">持股42%的马斯克本人</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">——上市后财富将突破万亿级,成为全球首位万亿富翁;</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">合计持股10%-15%的公司核心员工</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">——早期入局,成本极低;</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">早期入局的风投机构与股东</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">——终于等到退出时刻。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">除此之外,21家承销投行是最大的隐形赢家。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 今年投行行业普遍低迷、降薪裁员,而SpaceX这一个超级项目,就能让所有参与投行团队超额盈利。后续还能持续解锁二级市场增发、可转债、并购交易、大宗交易、股票回购等持续业务,堪称投行的“年度飞升项目”,一年顶往年五年收益。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">而输家呢?</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 所有脱离基本面的高估值狂欢,最终都会回归均值。狂欢落幕之后,永远是后进场的普通人承担所有风险。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 历史的轮回</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 运河狂热与太空泡沫</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 最后,让我们用一个经典历史案例帮大家看懂本质。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">19世纪全球掀起运河狂热</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">,苏伊士运河、巴拿马运河开凿前夕,无数法国中产疯狂募资入局。最终巴拿马运河公司1889年破产,初代投资者尽数血本无归。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">但运河最终成功通航,彻底改写了全球贸易格局,造福了后续上百年的全球经济和无数行业。</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">可初代的基建投资者,几乎没有吃到任何时代红利。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 如今的SpaceX、追捧它的华尔街资本,何尝不是当年的运河狂热?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">我从不否认SpaceX的伟大,也不否认太空经济的星辰大海,但作为普通投资者,我们一定要克制对个人英雄主义的崇拜、对科幻浪漫叙事的盲从。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 沃伦的警告,不该被忽视</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX是实体产业的颠覆者,却是资本市场的收割者。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 它用极致务实打破了传统<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000901\">航天</a>的暴利与僵化,却用极致资本套路,打造了一场属于顶级圈层的泡沫盛宴。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">伊丽莎白·沃伦的警告,不该被忽视。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SEC是否会在政治压力下叫停这场“资本狂欢”?马斯克将如何反击这位“死对头”的狙击?周五的上市计划是否会突遭变数?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 这一切,都将在未来48小时内揭晓。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 但无论结果如何,普通投资者都应该记住一句话:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">所有脱离基本面的高估值狂欢,最终都会回归均值。狂欢落幕之后,永远是后进场的普通人承担所有风险。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 这是一封美国参议院银行、住房与城市事务委员会成员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)于2026年6月9日写给美国证券交易委员会(SEC)主席保罗·阿特金斯(Paul Atkins)的信函,要求SEC推迟SpaceX的IPO注册声明生效。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 以下是全文翻译:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">美国参议院</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">银行、住房与城市事务委员会</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">华盛顿特区 20510-6075</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 2026年6月9日</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 尊敬的保罗·阿特金斯主席: 美国证券交易委员会 东北F街100号 华盛顿特区 20549</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 阿特金斯主席:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 我怀着极度关切的心情,就太空探索技术公司(Space Exploration Technologies Corp.,简称“SpaceX”)即将进行的首次公开募股(IPO)致函您。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 据报道,由埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)拥有的航空<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00031\">航天</a>和人工智能公司SpaceX,计划在本月晚些时候以高达2万亿美元的估值向投资者募集高达750亿美元——这将使其成为“史上最大规模的股市首秀”。然而,此次IPO似乎对普通投资者及其退休储蓄构成重大风险,同时为SpaceX内部人士(包括特朗普政府高级官员)带来巨大利益。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 与SpaceX公开募股相关的风险源于该公司向证券交易委员会(“SEC”或“委员会”)提交的备案文件及其他公开报道中揭示的一系列问题:首先,SpaceX预计将以约100倍2025年营收的价格发行股票——这一估值倍数几乎史无前例,需要投资者对AI和太空两个领域的诸多假设抱以极大信心;其次,非传统的公司治理结构将使SpaceX首席执行官埃隆·马斯克拥有前所未有的权力,而投资者获得的权利将远低于传统公开股票购买者通常享有的权利;第三,主要股指提供商正在改写规则,为SpaceX快速进入其指数——以及驱动数百万美国人退休储蓄的投资基金——铺平道路。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 最终的结果可能是灾难性的:如果SpaceX的估值崩溃,退休人员和家庭的投资者账户将遭受损失,且对任何公司不当行为几乎没有追索权,而地球上最富有的人则因缺乏监管而变得更加富有。SEC的核心使命是保护投资者,维护公平、有序和高效的市场。鉴于史上最大规模IPO对投资者保护和市场诚信构成的前所未有的威胁,您必须推迟任何加速注册声明生效的行为。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 在允许公司向公众出售其股票之前,委员会必须考虑“公共利益和投资者保护”。在此过程中,委员会可以审查公司的初步招股说明书,以“确认其是否符合适用的会计标准和联邦证券法律法规的披露要求”。仅SpaceX IPO的巨大规模,在正常情况下就足以证明SEC进行仔细审查和关注投资者需求的合理性。但这些并非正常情况:诸多额外因素加剧了担忧,并要求SEC采取行动以履行其投资者保护和市场诚信职责,即推迟注册声明的生效。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">SpaceX的估值与会计</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX股票的价值——无论是现在还是可预见的未来——似乎建立在一系列独特的投机性事件之上。据《金融时报》报道,SpaceX目前的财务状况“对于计算公司价值毫无用处”,部分原因是评估尚不存在的活动的固有挑战,但这些活动可能成为一家使命崇高(“将意识之光延伸到星辰”)的公司增长的一部分。据晨星(Morningstar)的一份报告,SpaceX的价值可能不到其1.75万亿美元估值的一半。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 事实上,“以《金融时报》此前报道的1.75万亿美元估值计算,SpaceX将成为美国股市第七大公司。然而,按每年190亿美元的营收排名,它仅位列第200位,与幸运符麦片制造商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GIS\">通用磨坊</a>(General Mills)相当。”市场“从未有过对一只如此投机却又如此庞大的股票进行定价的先例”,“最大的问题是,高达1.8万亿美元的估值能否在公开市场中持续”。部分问题在于准确评估SpaceX的崇高目标(包括太空旅行和星际居住)是不可能的。但这也是该公司持续亏损和未能实现过去目标的产物。因此,市场分析师对其目标估值背后的数学逻辑提出了质疑,称之为“荒谬的”、“烟幕弹式的会计”和“真正脱离现实的”。如果该估值无法持续,选择以高估值买入的投资者——或因投资于指数基金而被迫买入的投资者,而这些基金本身基于已修改规则以纳入SpaceX的指数——将为此付出代价。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 此外,IPO的估值部分由SpaceX与xAI的2026年合并决定。由于埃隆·马斯克身处交易双方,“他亲自与自己谈判交易,自己设定相对估值,自己签署合并协议,自己完成交易,然后才告知董事会和股东”。这让马斯克有机会将xAI的估值抬高到超过其资产价值的水平——换句话说,单方面决定自己交易的价值——并将其纳入即将进行的IPO。SEC应评估SpaceX与xAI之间(以及埃隆·马斯克控制的其他公司组成的完整网络)的交易和关系是否因不准确或误导性的会计或估值而对投资者构成风险。鉴于众多主动和被动投资者将暴露于SpaceX的风险之下,缺乏基本面支撑的估值可能威胁我们资本市场的完整性和稳定性。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX-xAI合并是马斯克先生控制的不同商业实体之间一系列共同控制交易中的一例——引发了关于SpaceX未来计划与其控制的公司进行整合的任何疑问。例如,正如商业媒体推测的那样,如果特斯拉(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>)和SpaceX合并,可能立即触发马斯克先生1万亿美元的特斯拉薪酬方案,因为控制权变更条款将取消此前解锁股票所需的业绩条件。将这些新的特斯拉股票转换为新的SpaceX股票可能对SpaceX股东产生重大影响。如果确实存在将特斯拉和SpaceX合并的计划,此类计划应向潜在投资者披露,因为它们应被视为对公司业务战略和公开募股后续价值具有重大重要性的事项。鉴于SpaceX的S-1备案文件未提及此类合并对SpaceX估值的影响——尽管它承认与马斯克先生其他企业的业务交易可能发生——SEC应在加速SpaceX注册声明生效之前,对马斯克先生关于其众多强大企业所有权结构的未来意图进行彻底调查。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">IPO后的公司治理</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> IPO还引发担忧,因为SpaceX的IPO后公司治理结构侵蚀了基本的股东权利,并将非同寻常的公司权力授予马斯克先生。公开交易公司理应对其股东负责。SpaceX的IPO将颠覆这一模式,股东提供数十亿美元的新资本,却没有任何对马斯克先生或公司领导层的问责措施,因为公司“结合了超级投票权股票、强制仲裁、更严格的股东提案规则以及德克萨斯州公司法,将控制权赋予SpaceX首席执行官埃隆·马斯克和其他内部人士。SpaceX还将限制投资者挑战管理层、在法庭起诉以及强制召开代理权争夺的能力”。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 正如领先的公司法学者所言,“即使是马斯克的崇拜者,也应该对SpaceX的公司治理感到不安”。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX的初步招股说明书表明,公司将维持双重股权结构,马斯克先生持有的每一股股票的投票权是向公众发售的每一股股票的10倍。这种不对称性将剥夺股东对重大公司决策(如收购、剥离或重组)的任何权力。正如公司招股说明书所承认的,“马斯克先生将能够控制需要股东批准的事项的结果”。此外,拟议的公司治理结构实质上剥夺了董事会的管理公司权力,使其无法解雇首席执行官:“马斯克只能由B类股东多数投票罢免董事长或首席执行官——而他个人控制该股票类别93.6%的股份——实际上保证了他的职位。”正如《金融时报》社论版所言,“传统的治理制衡几乎完全缺失……[马斯克]将对投票权和董事会拥有几乎不可挑战的控制权”。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 问题更加复杂的是,“在其他非典型安排中,SpaceX不计划让其董事会多数成员为独立董事”,包括“不使用独立董事委员会来决定高管薪酬,这是大多数公司的做法”。马斯克的地位很可能因其在董事会中强大朋友的存在而得到巩固,包括安东尼奥·格拉西亚斯(Antonio Gracias)和史蒂夫·尤尔韦森(Steve Jurvetson)。据报道,格拉西亚斯先生和尤尔韦森先生与马斯克先生私交甚密,并且是GPS信号市场的竞争对手。这引发了公司治理担忧,并存在违反反垄断法禁止关联董事(即公司董事同时担任其竞争对手董事会成员)的风险。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX还试图限制股东通过法院获得法律救济的途径。根据其S-1备案文件,SpaceX计划通过强制大多数股东诉讼进入仲裁程序,使马斯克免受法律风险——这是一个不公开且系统性地偏向公司利益的过程。重要的是,仲裁将是联邦证券法下诉讼的唯一选择,因为德克萨斯州商业法院——SpaceX首选的法律争议审理地——对相关联邦证券法没有管辖权,这与S-1中声称该领域法律“尚未确定”的说法相反。虽然该条款最终可能无法执行,但SEC最近推翻了一项长期立场,即IPO中的强制仲裁条款不符合“公共利益和投资者保护”,这才使这种尝试成为可能。此外,“SpaceX选择了一项条款,仅允许持有公司3%或以上股份的股东提起所谓的‘派生’诉讼,代表公司起诉董事会或首席执行官——就像在更利于股东的特拉华州,一位小投资者提起的特斯拉薪酬投诉那样。如果SpaceX达到预期的1.75万亿美元估值,起诉的股东将需要至少525亿美元的股份。”SpaceX还打算通过提高股东提案门槛来保护马斯克对公司的单方面控制权,禁止其大多数投资者强制在股东大会上进行投票。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 马斯克先生对SpaceX的权力程度尤其令人担忧,因为他的利益与SpaceX股东和投资者的利益之间不可避免地会产生冲突。公司招股说明书也承认了这一点:在向SEC提交的修订文件中,SpaceX承认,“未来可能在我们与马斯克先生及其拥有或关联的实体之间,就业务交易、潜在竞争活动或其他商业机会等方面产生利益冲突。在正常业务过程中,我们与其中一些公司进行了各种交易。”它继续写道:“马斯克先生或其关联方可能不时了解到某些商业机会(如收购机会或技术发展),并可能将这些机会导向他们投资的其他企业,在这种情况下,[投资者]可能无法了解或无法追求此类机会。”招股说明书还详细说明了马斯克先生——作为对SpaceX负有受托责任的公司董事——如何也可能拥有与SpaceX竞争的其他公司的资产:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 根据我们的章程,马斯克先生及其关联方不受限制地拥有与我们直接或间接竞争的资产或从事业务,并且没有义务避免从事与我们相同或类似的业务活动或业务线,包括被视为与我们竞争的业务活动或业务线,或与我们的任何客户或供应商开展业务。此外,我们过去曾与马斯克先生关联的实体进行交易,未来也可能继续如此。我们可能选择此类交易,而非追求其他一些股东可能更喜欢或可能比我们选择追求的机会更具增值性的机会。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX招股说明书的这些条款表明,其IPO将是史上规模最大的,也可能拥有史上最被操纵的公司结构。如果IPO以其当前形式获批,马斯克在SpaceX拥有的独特且不受约束的权力将对投资者、市场和公众造成严重担忧。此次IPO最终为未来IPO树立了危险的先例。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">对被动投资者和资本市场的影响</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 关于SpaceX的估值和公司治理担忧,如果其IPO注册声明的生效被加速,将对市场诚信产生重大担忧。对于挑选和选择特定投资的投资者,他们至少能够避免投资于从事风险或不公平行为的公司。但SpaceX的IPO创造了一个新的担忧:主要股市指数正在被操纵,以迫使指数基金中的数百万投资者——这是一种通常成本较低、对散户投资者有吸引力的投资选择——投资SpaceX,并在没有选择的情况下面临SpaceX的重大风险。“分析师估计,在纳入后的几个月内,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>、纳斯达克100和罗素1000追踪器将保守地强制买入150亿至300亿美元的SpaceX股票,更激进的流通股权重情景则会高得多”。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 除上述公开交易股票向散户投资者的超额分配外,SpaceX的IPO还将使被动和主动投资者都面临重大风险。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 主要股指有一套明确的规则来确定是否以及何时纳入新公司。这些规则为股票购买者提供了重要的投资者保护,使其免受新上市IPO的波动性和不确定性影响,并允许市场发现机制在指数纳入之前为公开公司建立公平价格。这些规则通常包括成熟度和可行性要求。例如,标普500要求公司在指数纳入前至少公开交易12个月,并且至少连续四个季度实现盈利。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 但据报道,SpaceX已游说指数提供商改变其指数纳入规则。指数提供商也照办了,进行了修改,使SpaceX等大型科技公司更容易被快速纳入被动投资者的投资组合。4月,标普<span>道琼斯</span><span></span>指数公司宣布正在考虑修改规则,以便更容易让“超大市值”(MegaCap)公司——即股市中最大的公司——快速进入其指数。仅就标普500而言,该公司正在考虑的修改包括将标准的12个月IPO后等待期缩短至6个月,取消标准的10%流通股权要求,并豁免超大市值公司满足所有其他公司都需要满足才能符合资格的财务可行性标准。2026年6月4日,该公司宣布放弃拟议的修改,声明“不应仅基于市值授予财务可行性、成熟度和IWF(可投资权重因子)要求的例外”。除标普道琼斯指数外,尚无关于主要指数撤销为SpaceX做出的修改和例外的大规模报道。2026年5月1日,纳斯达克100实施了一项新的“快速进入”规则,允许按市值排名前40的公司在上市第七天就有资格被纳入。富时罗素(FTSE Russell)也效仿了。正如《华尔街日报》报道的那样,该公司“修改了规则,使新上市的大型公司更容易进入其美国指数,为被动投资者快速获取SpaceX和其他备受瞩目的上市公司的股票打开了大门”。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 指数提供商对新公开募股的不同处理方式可能导致投资者对股票敞口的预期出现差异。此外,正如一位分析师警告的那样,这些不断变化的政策“可能在‘被动’指数之间造成显著的回报差异”。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 对于投资于为SpaceX放宽规则的指数基金的投资者,这些修改可能导致他们被迫购买数十亿美元的SpaceX股票,而他们对此没有任何发言权。突然间,美国人的退休储蓄或养老金可能与SpaceX的市值挂钩。股票的普遍性将人为推高其价值,而SpaceX内部人士——得益于允许他们比往常更早出售股票的特殊规则——将能够迅速抛售其股份,让散户投资者接盘。结果可能是巨大的财富向上再分配——即使SpaceX没有盈利。简而言之,这些修改可能使一项金融工程计划得以实施,该计划操纵美国资本市场以 favor 马斯克先生及其盟友。正如一位《金融时报》评论员所言,“为什么标普道琼斯指数公司……似乎在 flirt with 一项放宽规则的修改,以允许埃隆·马斯克的卫星到AI公司快速进入?”这是SEC和指数提供商应该向公众回答的问题。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 有利于SpaceX的修改不仅限于指数——大型资产管理公司也在做出改变。2026年6月4日,管理着16.4万亿美元资产的富达投资(Fidelity Investments)“将其SpaceX IPO准入要求从高达50万美元大幅削减至仅2,000美元”,为历史上最大的股票首秀之一向数百万散户投资者敞开了大门。因此,SpaceX新IPO的风险不仅限于大型机构投资者,还将波及小型个人投资者,因为此次IPO似乎缺乏通常存在的许多投资者和市场保护。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 在考虑SpaceX IPO对投资者的风险时,您还必须考虑到,这些风险将因SpaceX股票被纳入主要指数以及通过主要资产管理公司和投资顾问向散户投资者开放而立即被放大。这创造了一种情景:当前SpaceX股东——包括特朗普政府高级官员——可以在危及美国投资者和我们金融稳定的同时使自己致富。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">其他需要推迟生效的问题</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 除关于SpaceX财务披露、公司治理以及操纵股市指数以利于自身的诸多担忧外,还有三个其他考虑因素需要推迟公司注册文件的生效,并要求SEC进行彻底调查。首先,存在潜在证券法违规的问题,即关于SpaceX初始私人备案的泄露。早在SpaceX于2026年4月1日向SEC提交保密注册声明之前,新闻报道就携带了关于招股说明书内容的信息,并引发了投资者兴趣。如果这些泄露是SpaceX为在IPO前增加市场兴趣而进行的协调尝试的结果,可能构成证券法第5条的违规,该条款禁止“抢跑”(gun-jumping)——在提供注册声明之前出售或宣传股票。法律规定,“除非注册声明对某种证券已生效,否则任何人直接或间接……使用州际贸易或邮件的任何交通或通讯手段或工具,通过任何招股说明书或其他方式出售该证券,均属违法。”由于SpaceX在任何注册声明之前就已受到关于上市的非同寻常的公众关注,SEC应加强对SpaceX IPO策略的审查,以确保公司未违反第5条。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 其次,存在马斯克先生在X上发布关于公司的声明所引发的市场混乱问题——X是他也拥有的社交媒体平台,现在属于SpaceX的xAI部门。一些金融记者认为,这些声明与SpaceX公开备案文件中的业务信息存在实质性矛盾。无论这些偏差是否重大,马斯克先生以在X上凭一时兴起发布公开声明而闻名,这些声明可以瞬间撼动市场。他还以尽管未实现宏大的业务目标却兑现巨额薪酬方案而闻名。如果这种行为模式持续下去,将对SpaceX的可信度产生重大怀疑,以及其备案的IPO是否充分告知投资者与马斯克先生相关的风险。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 关于证券法违规和马斯克先生矛盾声明的担忧,足以让SEC推迟SpaceX注册声明的生效,并允许市场有一段冷静期,以更彻底地评估SpaceX IPO的合理性。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">结论与问题</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX的IPO似乎为股东和未来公开公司上市呈现了独特且开创先例的风险。公司的会计和财务报告存在令人不安的漏洞,并被今年早些时候发生的大规模且不透明的xAI合并所笼罩。公司的公司治理结构将独特的权力授予其首席执行官,并严重限制股东权利。主要股指在放弃旧规则或制定新规则以允许SpaceX纳入方面的共谋,意味着数十亿美元的被动投资将被迫进入该公司,使退休人员和普通投资者面临风险。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 简而言之,投资者和公众对SpaceX及其计划如何使用其寻求募集的数十亿美元存在众多未解答的重大问题。SEC不应在未经严格审查SpaceX财务报表、公司治理结构及其可能对散户投资者(包括通过指数基金)的影响的情况下,加速SpaceX注册声明的生效。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 我要求您在2026年6月23日之前,对以下问题提供详细答复:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SEC打算如何评估SpaceX关于其估值的主张,基于其对太空旅行、多行星居住和“将意识之光延伸到星辰”等主张?请包括关于以下方面的具体信息: a. 任何潜在的高估来源 b. SpaceX提出的估值(1.75万亿美元)与其营收(每年190亿美元)之间的差异</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SEC确保投资者获得清晰准确披露的计划是什么,尽管存在复杂的会计问题?请提供关于以下方面的具体信息: a. 近期xAI收购的估值 b. 联合创始人离职的影响 c. SpaceX各子公司(包括发射、星链和xAI)的营收和亏损,包括星链用户群的行业标准信息 d. 承销银行之间任何潜在的利益冲突 e. SpaceX审计师的严谨性和独立性,包括任何潜在的利益冲突 f. 任何可能对SpaceX股票价值产生重大影响的预期未来合并或重大交易</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SEC是否认为,从保密备案草案泄露的信息已实质性增加了市场对SpaceX首次公开募股的兴趣?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 鉴于有报道称保密备案草案的信息被不当泄露,可能构成“抢跑”,SEC是否考虑过推迟SpaceX的首次公开募股?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SEC在评估IPO时,计划如何考虑SpaceX的公司结构——该结构将几乎完全的控制权授予一个人?请提供关于以下方面的具体信息: a. 其双重股权结构 b. 埃隆·马斯克对投票权的控制 c. 董事会成员的独立性,鉴于他们与控股股东马斯克先生的个人和业务关系 d. SpaceX与马斯克先生控制的其他实体之间潜在的利益冲突交易</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SEC计划如何保护被动投资者免受SpaceX股票的风险,包括: a. 机构投资者(如养老基金),以及 b. 被动指数基金的股东</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SEC是否会寻求SpaceX关于州法院对《交易法》索赔管辖权结论的法律依据?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 此致</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 伊丽莎白·沃伦 银行、住房与城市事务委员会 资深成员(Ranking Member)</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIMB\">TIM</a> SCOTT SOUTH CAROLINA, CHAIRMAN</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> ELIZABETH WARREN MASSACHUSETTS, RANKING MEMBER</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> MIKE CRAPO, IDAHO</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> JACK REED, RHODE ISLAND</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> MIKE ROUNDS, SOUTH DAKOTA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> MARK R. WARNER, VIRGINIA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> THOM TILLIS, NORTH CAROLINA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> CHRIS VAN HOLLEN, MARYLAND</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> JOHN KENNEDY, LOUISIANA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO, NEVADA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> BILL HAGERTY, TENNESSEE</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> TINA SMITH, MINNESOTA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> CYNTHIA LUMMIS, WYOMING</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> RAPHAEL G. WARNOCK, GEORGIA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> KATIE BOYD BRITT, ALABAMA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> ANDY KIM, NEW JERSEY</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> PETE RICKETTS, NEBRASKA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> RUBEN GALLEGO, ARIZONA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> JIM BANKS, INDIANA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> LISA BLUNT ROCHESTER, DELAWARE</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> KEVIN CRAMER, NORTH DAKOTA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> ANGELA D. ALSOBROOKS, MARYLAND</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> BERNIE MORENO, OHIO</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> DAVID McCORMICK, PENNSYLVANIA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> JANIE FAULKNER, STAFF DIRECTOR</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> JON DONENBERG, DEMOCRATIC STAFF DIRECTOR</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">United States Senate</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">COMMITTEE ON BANKING, HOUSING, AND URBAN AFFAIRS</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">WASHINGTON, DC 20510-6075</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> June 9, 2026</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> The Honorable Paul Atkins</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Chair</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 100 F Street NE</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Washington, DC 20549</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Dear Chair Atkins,</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> I write with extreme concern regarding the upcoming initial public offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (“SpaceX”). According to reports, SpaceX, an aerospace and artificial intelligence company owned by Elon Musk, seeks to target a valuation of upwards of $2 trillion and raise up to $75 billion from investors in its offering later this month – making it “the largest stock-market debut in history.” However, this IPO appears to present significant risks to ordinary investors and their retirement savings – while carrying enormous advantages for SpaceX insiders, including senior Trump Administration officials.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> The risks associated with SpaceX‘s public offering are caused by a confluence of concerns revealed by the company’s filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC,” or “the Commission”) and other public reporting: first, “SpaceX is expected to offer stock at roughly 100 times 2025 revenue — a valuation multiple with little precedent, and one that requires numerous leaps of faith around both the AI and space theses;” second, a non-traditional governance structure that will leave SpaceX‘s CEO, Elon Musk, with an unprecedented level of power, and investors with significantly fewer rights than those traditionally offered to purchasers of public shares; and third, major stock index providers rewriting their rules to fast track SpaceX’s entry into their indexes — and into the investment funds that power millions of Americans‘ retirement savings.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> The net result could be disastrous: a scenario where retirees‘ and families’ investment accounts take a hit if SpaceX‘s valuation falters, with little recourse for any corporate misconduct, while the wealthiest man on earth becomes even wealthier due to a lack of oversight. The SEC’s core mission is to protect investors and maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets. Given the unprecedented threats to investor protection and market integrity posed by the biggest IPO in history, you must delay any eventual acceleration of the registration statement‘s effectiveness accordingly. Before the company is allowed to go public, the SEC must investigate whether index funds and other financial entities involved in SpaceX’s IPO are adequately protecting investors, and the company must fill disclosure gaps related to valuation, ensure risks and details related to its concentrated governance structure are clear to investors, and abandon mandatory arbitration to provide shareholders whose rights are otherwise gutted in this structure a minimum avenue for recourse.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> SpaceX‘s IPO Process and the SEC’s Role</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX has been privately held since its founding by Elon Musk in 2002, raising approximately $9 billion in equity capital through private markets. Remaining private has allowed Mr. Musk to retain extensive control over the company. Mr. Musk, in addition to being the founder, serves as Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer, and Chairman of the Board, in addition to being the controlling shareholder. Earlier this year, SpaceX combined with another privately held company founded and controlled by Mr. Musk, xAI, in “the biggest merger in history... to create a $1.25 trillion giant.” SpaceX filed its IPO registration statement with the SEC on May 20, 2026, having reportedly filed a confidential registration around April 1, 2026. If the SpaceX IPO goes through at the target valuations, the “blockbuster listing will unlock vast new wealth for SpaceX executives and investors ... But all of the holdings pale in comparison to the riches that Musk will unlock. He holds [vested shares] which could be worth about $700bn. A successful listing could see him become the world‘s first trillionaire.”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Before allowing a company to sell its shares to the public, the Commission is required to consider “the public interest and the protection of investors.” In so doing, the Commission may review the company‘s preliminary prospectus “for compliance with the applicable accounting standards and the disclosure requirements of the federal securities laws and regulations.” The massive size of the SpaceX IPO alone, under normal circumstances, would justify careful SEC review and attention to investor needs. But these are not normal circumstances: a number of additional factors exacerbate concerns and require action by the SEC to meet its investor protection and market integrity mandates by delaying the effectiveness of SpaceX’s registration statement.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> SpaceX‘s Valuation and Accounting</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> The value of SpaceX shares – now and in the foreseeable future – appears to be based on a uniquely speculative series of events. According to the Financial Times, SpaceX‘s finances today “are of no use in working out what the company is worth,” in part because of the inherent challenge of valuing activities that don’t yet exist but could be part of the growth of a company whose lofty mission is to “extend the light of consciousness to the stars.” According to a report from Morningstar, SpaceX may be worth less than half of the $1.75 trillion valuation it seeks.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Indeed, “[a]t the valuation of $1.75tn previously reported by Financial Times, SpaceX would be the U.S. stock market‘s seventh-largest company. However, when ranked by its revenue of $19 billion a year, it would be 200th, on par with Lucky Charms cereal maker General Mills.” The market has “never before had to price a stock so speculative yet so large,” and “[t]he big question is whether a valuation as large as $1.8 trillion can be sustained in public markets.” Part of the problem is the impossibility of accurately valuing SpaceX’s lofty goals, including space travel and interplanetary habitation. But it is also the product of the company‘s consistent negative profitability, and on its failure to meet past goals. As a result, market analysts have raised concerns about the math underlying SpaceX’s target valuation, calling it “nonsensical,” “smoke-and-mirrors accounting,” and “truly out of this world.” If that valuation cannot be sustained, the investors who have chosen to buy in at lofty valuations – or will be forced to do so because of their investments in index funds, that are themselves based on indexes that have amended their rules to include SpaceX – will pay the price.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Additionally, the IPO‘s value is set in part by SpaceX’s 2026 merger with xAI. Since Elon Musk was on both sides of the transaction, “he negotiate[d] the deal with himself, set the relative valuations himself, sign[ed] the merger agreement, close[d] the deal, and then [told] the boards and shareholders about it.” This gave Mr. Musk an opportunity to inflate the valuation of xAI in excess of its assets – in other words, unilaterally deciding the value of his own transaction – and roll this into the upcoming IPO. The SEC should evaluate whether transactions and other relationships between SpaceX and xAI (as well as the full web of other companies under Elon Musk‘s control) present risks to investors from inaccurate or misleading accounting or valuation. Given the range of both active and passive investors who will be exposed to SpaceX’s risk, valuations that are not supported by fundamentals may threaten the integrity and stability of our capital markets.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> The SpaceX-xAI merger is one in a series of common-control transactions between different business entities controlled by Mr. Musk – raising questions about any future plans SpaceX might have to integrate with Musk-controlled firms. For example, should Tesla and SpaceX merge as the business press has speculated, it could instantly trigger Mr. Musk‘s $1 trillion Tesla pay package due to a change in control provision that voids the performance conditions previously required to unlock the shares. Converting these new Tesla shares into new SpaceX shares could have significant implications for SpaceX shareholders. If plans do in fact exist to merge Tesla and SpaceX, such plans should be disclosed to prospective investors, as they should be considered materially important to the business strategy of the company and subsequent value of the public offering. Given that SpaceX’s S-1 makes no mention of the effect such a merger would have on SpaceX‘s valuation – even as it acknowledges that business transactions with Mr. Musk’s other ventures may occur – the SEC should conduct a thorough inquiry into Mr. Musk‘s future intentions regarding the ownership structure of his many powerful businesses before accelerating the effectiveness of SpaceX’s registration statement.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> Post-IPO Corporate Governance</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> The IPO also poses concerns because SpaceX‘s post-IPO governance structure erodes fundamental shareholder rights and vests an extraordinary level of corporate power in Mr. Musk. Publicly traded companies are meant to be accountable to their shareholders. The SpaceX IPO will flip this model on its head, with shareholders providing billions of dollars in new capital with no accountability measures for Mr. Musk or company leadership, as the company “[combines] supervoting shares, mandatory arbitration, stricter rules on shareholder proposals and Texas corporate law to give control to SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and other insiders. SpaceX also will limit investors’ ability to challenge management, sue in court, and force proxy contests.”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> As leading corporate law scholars put it, “even Musk admirers should be troubled by SpaceX‘s governance.”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX‘s preliminary prospectus indicates that the company will maintain a dual-class share structure, with each share held by Mr. Musk holding 10 times as much voting power as a share of the class offered to the public. Such asymmetry will deny shareholders any power over major corporate decisions like acquisitions, divestments, or restructuring. As the company’s prospectus admits, “Mr. Musk will be able to control the outcome of matters requiring shareholder approval.” In addition, the proposed governance structure essentially eliminates the Board of Directors‘ authority to manage the company, stripping it of the ability to fire the Chief Executive Officer: “Musk can only be removed as chair or chief executive by a majority vote of the class B shareholders — and personally controls 93.6 per cent of the share class — in effect guaranteeing his position.” As the editorial board of the Financial Times put it, “[t]raditional governance checks are almost entirely absent.... [Musk] will have a virtually unchallengeable grip on voting rights and the board.”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Compounding the problem is that “among [other] atypical arrangements, SpaceX does not plan to have the majority of its board be independent directors,” including “not us[ing] a committee of independent board members to determine executive compensation, as most companies do.” Musk‘s position is likely to be entrenched by the presence of his powerful friends on the board of directors, including Antonio Gracias and Steve Jurvetson. Mr. Gracias and Mr. Jurvetson are reportedly personally close to Mr. Musk and competitors in the market for GPS signals. This raises corporate governance concerns, and runs the risk of violating antitrust laws banning interlocking directorates in which corporate directors sit on the boards of their competitors.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX is also attempting to limit shareholders‘ access to the courts for legal remedies. According to its S-1 filing, SpaceX plans to insulate Musk from legal risk by forcing most shareholders’ suits into arbitration, a process hidden from public view and systematically tilted in favor of the company‘s interests. Importantly, arbitration would be the only option for suits under federal securities law, because the Texas Business Court – SpaceX’s preferred forum for legal disputes – does not have jurisdiction over the relevant federal securities laws, contrary to the S-1‘s assertion that the law in this area is “unsettled.” While the provision may not ultimately be enforceable, such an attempt has been made possible by the SEC’s recent reversal of a longstanding position that forced arbitration clauses in IPOs were not in “the public interest and protection of investors.” Furthermore, “SpaceX has opted for a provision that allows only shareholders holding 3 per cent or more of a company‘s shares to bring a so-called ’derivative‘ lawsuit on behalf of the company suing the board or chief executive, like the Tesla pay complaint filed by a tiny investor in the more shareholder-hospitable <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VMM\">Delaware</a>. Should SpaceX hit its expected $1.75tn valuation, a suing shareholder would need a stake of at least $52.5bn.” SpaceX also intends to protect Musk’s unilateral control over the company by raising the threshold for shareholder proposals, prohibiting most of its investors from forcing a vote at a shareholder meeting.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> The degree of Mr. Musk‘s power over SpaceX is especially concerning because of the conflicts that will inevitably arise between his interests and those of SpaceX’s shareholders and investors. The company‘s prospectus says as much: In its amended filing with the SEC, SpaceX admits that “[c]onflicts of interest could arise in the future between us, on the one hand, and Mr. Musk and entities owned by or affiliated with him, on the other hand, concerning among other things, business transactions, potential competitive activities or other business opportunities. In the normal course of business, we have engaged in a variety of transactions with some of these companies.” It continues: “Mr. Musk or his affiliates may become aware, from time to time, of certain business opportunities (such as acquisition opportunities or technological developments) and may direct such opportunities to other businesses in which they have invested, in which case [investors] may not become aware of or otherwise have the ability to pursue such opportunity.” The prospectus also details how Mr. Musk – a corporate director with fiduciary obligations to SpaceX – may also own assets in other companies that compete with SpaceX:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Under our charter, Mr. Musk and his affiliates are not restricted from owning assets or engaging in businesses that compete directly or indirectly with us and will not have any duty to refrain from engaging, directly or indirectly, in the same or similar business activities or lines of business as us, including those business activities or lines of business deemed to be competing with us, or doing business with any of our customers or vendors. Moreover, we have in the past entered into, and may in the future enter into, transactions with entities affiliated with Mr. Musk. We may enter into such transactions in lieu of pursuing other opportunities that some other shareholders may prefer or that may prove to be more accretive than the opportunities we elect to pursue.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> These provisions of SpaceX‘s prospectus indicate that its IPO will be the biggest in history and may also have the most rigged corporate structure in history. Should the IPO be approved in its current form, the uniquely unchecked power Musk will have at SpaceX creates serious concerns for investors, markets, and the public at large. This IPO ultimately sets a dangerous precedent for future IPOs.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> Effects on Passive Investors and the Capital Markets</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> The valuation and corporate governance concerns regarding SpaceX raise significant concerns about market integrity should its IPO‘s effectiveness be accelerated. For investors who pick and choose their specific investments, they at least are able to avoid investing in companies that engage in risky or unfair practices. But the SpaceX IPO creates a new concern: that major stock market indexes are being rigged in a way that would force millions of investors in passive index funds – a generally lower cost investment option that can be attractive to retail investors – to invest in SpaceX and face exposure to SpaceX’s significant risks with no choice in the matter. “Analysts estimate conservative forced buying of $15 billion to $30 billion across S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 and Russell 1000 trackers in the months after inclusion, with more aggressive float-weighted scenarios running far higher.”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> In addition to the above-average allocation of publicly traded stocks to retail investors, SpaceX‘s IPO will expose both passive and active investors to significant risk.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Major stock indexes have a clear set of rules to determine whether and when to add new companies. These rules provide important investor protections for stock purchasers from the volatility and uncertainty of newly-public IPOs and allow market discovery to establish a fair price for public companies prior to index inclusion. The rules typically include seasoning and viability requirements. For example, the S&P 500 has required that companies be publicly traded for at least twelve months and have at least four quarters of positive income prior to index inclusion.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> But SpaceX has reportedly lobbied index providers to change the rules for inclusion on their indices. And the index providers have complied, with changes that would make it easier for large technology companies like SpaceX to be fast-tracked into passive investors‘ portfolios. In April, S&P Dow Jones announced it was considering changes to its rules to more easily enable “MegaCap” companies – the largest companies on the stock market – to be fast-tracked onto its indexes. For the S&P 500 alone, the firm was considering changes that included reducing the standard 12-month post-IPO waiting period to six months, eliminating the standard 10 percent float requirements, and exempting MegaCap companies from the financial viability criteria that all other companies are expected to meet in order to qualify. On June 4, 2026, the company announced it was foregoing the proposed changes, stating that “exceptions to the financial viability, seasoning, and IWF (investable weight factor) requirements should not be granted solely based on market capitalization.” Other than S&P Dow Jones, there has not been reporting of major indexes reversing changes and exceptions to long-standing rules that will be made for SpaceX. On May 1, 2026, the Nasdaq 100 implemented a new “fast entry” rule, which would allow companies in the top 40 by market capitalization to be eligible for inclusion on their seventh day of trading. FTSE Russell has followed suit. As the Wall Street Journal reports, the firm “changed its rules to make it easier for freshly minted megacaps to enter its U.S. indexes, opening the door for passive investors to quickly access shares in SpaceX and other high-profile listings.”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> A divergence among index providers‘ approaches to new public offerings may lead to different investor expectations around stock exposure. Additionally, as one analyst warned, these shifting policies “could create significant return dispersion [between] ’passive‘ indexes.”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> For investors in index funds that do bend the rules for SpaceX, the changes may lead to the forced purchase of billions of dollars of SpaceX stock without them having any say in the matter. Suddenly, American retirement savings or pensions may be tied to SpaceX‘s market capitalization. The stock’s ubiquity would artificially jack up its value, and SpaceX insiders – thanks to special rules allowing them to sell their shares sooner than usual – would be able to quickly sell off their shares, leaving retail investors holding the bag. What results could be a massive upward redistribution of wealth – even should SpaceX not be profitable. In short, these changes may enable a scheme of financial engineering that rigs America‘s capital markets in favor of Mr. Musk and his allies. As one Financial Times commentator put it, “Why on earth is [S&P Dow Jones Indices]... seemingly flirting with a rule-bending change to allow Elon Musk’s satellites-to-AI company a quick entry?” This is a question the SEC and the index providers should answer for the public.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Changes benefitting SpaceX are not limited to indexes – they are also being made by large asset managers. On June 4, 2026, Fidelity Investments, a firm with $16.4 trillion in administered assets, “slashed its SpaceX IPO entry requirement from as much as $500,000 to just $2,000,” opening one of the biggest stock debuts in history to millions of retail investors. The risk from SpaceX‘s new IPO will therefore not be limited to large institutional investors, but also small individual investors as the IPO appears to lack many of the investor and market protections that are typically in place.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> As you consider the risks to investors from SpaceX‘s IPO, you must also factor that such risks will be immediately magnified by the inclusion of SpaceX stock on the major indexes and its availability to retail investors through major asset managers and investment advisors. This creates a scenario where current SpaceX shareholders – including senior Trump Administration officials – can enrich themselves while endangering American investors and the stability of our financial markets.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> Other Issues Warranting Delayed Effectiveness</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> In addition to the multitude of concerns regarding SpaceX‘s financial disclosures, corporate governance, and efforts to rig stock market indexes in its favor, three other considerations warrant delaying the effectiveness of the company’s registration documents and demand thorough investigation from the SEC. First, there is the matter of potential Securities Act violations in the form of leaks regarding SpaceX‘s initial private filing. Well before SpaceX’s confidential SEC registration statement was filed on April 1, 2026, news reports carried information about the contents of the prospectus and generated investor interest. If these leaks were the result of a coordinated attempt by SpaceX to increase market interest in advance of an IPO, it might constitute a violation of Section 5 of the Securities Act, which prohibits “gun-jumping” – selling or publicizing shares before a registration statement has been provided. The law provides that “Unless a registration statement is in effect as to a security, it shall be unlawful for any person, directly or indirectly ... to make use of any means or instruments of transportation or communication in interstate commerce or of the mails to sell such security through the use or medium of any prospectus or otherwise.” Because of the extraordinary publicity surrounding SpaceX going public in the advance of any registration statement, the SEC should increase scrutiny of SpaceX‘s IPO tactics to ensure that the company has not violated Section 5.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Second, there is the market confusion that has ensued from Mr. Musk making statements regarding the company on X – the social media platform he also owns, now under the xAI segment of SpaceX. It appears to some financial journalists that these statements materially contradict business information included in SpaceX‘s public filing. Whether or not the deviations are material, Mr. Musk is well-known to have a propensity to make public statements on X on whims that can instantly move markets. He is also known to cash out on large pay packages despite not meeting lofty business goals. If this pattern of behavior continues, it casts significant doubt on SpaceX’s credibility, and whether its IPO as filed sufficiently informs investors of the risks involved with Mr. Musk.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Concerns regarding a Securities Act violation and contradictory statements made by Mr. Musk give enough reason for the SEC to delay the effectiveness of SpaceX‘s registration, and allow the markets a cooling-off period to more thoroughly evaluate the soundness of SpaceX’s IPO.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> Conclusion and Questions</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> The SpaceX IPO appears to present a unique and precedent-setting risk for shareholders and future public company offerings. The company‘s accounting and financial reports contain troubling gaps, and are clouded by the massive and opaque xAI merger that occurred earlier this year. The company’s corporate governance structure vests unique power in its CEO and severely limits shareholders‘ rights. And the complicity of major stock indices in waiving old rules or creating new ones to allow SpaceX’s inclusion means that billions of dollars of passive investments will be forced into the company, putting retirees and ordinary investors at risk.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> In short, there are a multitude of unanswered material questions investors and the public have about SpaceX and what it is likely to do with the billions it seeks to raise. The SEC should not accelerate the effectiveness of SpaceX‘s registration without serious scrutiny of SpaceX’s financial statements, governance structure, and the impact it may have on retail investors, including through index funds.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> I request detailed answers to the following questions no later than June 23, 2026:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> How does the SEC intend to evaluate SpaceX‘s claims about its valuation on the basis of its claims regarding such things as space travel, multiplanetary habitation, and “extending the light of consciousness to the stars”? Please include specific information about: a. Any potential sources of overvaluation b. The discrepancy between SpaceX’s proffered valuation ($1.75 trillion) and its revenues ($19 billion per year)</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> What is the SEC‘s plan to ensure investors receive clear and accurate disclosures despite complex accounting issues? Please provide specific information about: a. The valuation of the recent xAI acquisition b. The impact of co-founder departures c. The revenues and losses of each of SpaceX’s subsidiaries, including Launch, Starlink, and xAI, including industry-standard information on Starlink‘s subscriber base d. Any potential conflicts of interest among underwriting banks e. The rigor and independence of SpaceX’s auditors, including any potential conflicts of interest f. Any intended future mergers or major transactions that could have a material effect on the value of SpaceX stock</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Does the SEC believe that leaked information from the draft confidential filing has substantially increased market interest in SpaceX‘s initial public offering?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Has the SEC considered delaying SpaceX‘s initial public offering, given reports that information from the draft confidential filing was leaked improperly and could be considered “gun-jumping”?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> How does the SEC plan to account for SpaceX‘s corporate structure, which vests nearly complete control in one person, in its evaluation of the IPO? Please provide specific information about: a. Its dual-class share structure b. Elon Musk’s control of voting shares c. The independence of board members, given their personal and business relationships with Musk, the controlling shareholder d. Potential conflicted transactions between SpaceX and other entities Musk controls</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> What does the SEC plan to do to protect passive investors from the risks of SpaceX stock, including: a. Institutional investors (like pension funds), and b. Stockholders of passive index funds</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Will the SEC seek the legal basis for SpaceX‘s conclusion that the jurisdiction of state courts over Exchange Act claims is unsettled?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Sincerely,</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> [Signature]</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Elizabeth Warren</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Ranking Member</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Footnotes:</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Bloomberg, “What to Know About the SpaceX IPO,” Anthony Hughes, May 29, 2026, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-29/what-to-know-about-the-spacex-ipo.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Bloomberg, “Trump Officials Held Millions of Dollars of SpaceX Ahead of IPO,” Annie Massa, Sophie Alexander, and Bill Allison, June 3, 2026, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-03/spacex-ipo-poised-to-enrich-trump-officials-who-hold-millions-in-stock.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Financial Times, “More takeaways from an S-1 for the ages,” Craig Coben, May 26, 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Bloomberg, “SpaceX‘s Capital Needs Are Out of This World” Chris Bryant, June 3, 2026, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-06-03/spacex-ipo-elon-musk-capital-needs-are-out-of-this-world.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026039276/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> New York Times, “The Numbers, and Questions, Behind Musk‘s Mega-Merger,” Andrew Ross Sorkin et al., February 3, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/business/dealbook/spacex-xai-merger.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX, Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, May 20, 2026, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Reuters, “SpaceX files for IPO, sources say, offering investors stake in Musk‘s space ambitions,” Echo Wang, Manya Saini, and Joey Roulette, April 1, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-registers-take-rocket-maker-public-blockbuster-ipo-bloomberg-news-reports-2026-04-01/.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Financial Times, “Inside SpaceX‘s audacious IPO plan,” Ryan McMorrow et al., May 20, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/a59be3cf-eee2-4b10-9c86-b6e4dc0dbbdb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 15 U.S.C. § 77h; 17 C.F.R. § 230.461(b).</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, “Filing Review Process,” Sept. 27, 2019.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Financial Times, “How to make sense of SpaceX‘s nonsensical valuation,” May 21, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/58fcca43-9195-49e2-b1c3-0e3bfb0147cd?syn-25a6b1a6=1.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> CNBC, “SpaceX is worth less than half of its $1.75 trillion IPO target, Morningstar says,” Joseph Wilkins, June 3, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/morningstar-spacex-ipo-target-price-nasdaq.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Financial Times, “How to make sense of SpaceX‘s nonsensical valuation,” May 21, 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Id.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Bloomberg, “What to Know About the SpaceX IPO,” Anthony Hughes, May 29, 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Fortune, “Top analyst has harsh words for SpaceX debut: ‘We recommend that investors avoid this IPO’,” Shawn Tully, May 29, 2026, https://fortune.com/2026/05/29/spacex-ipo-should-i-buy-bear-case-david-trainer/.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> New York Times, “How SpaceX Is Structured to Favor Elon Musk,” Ryan Mac, May 26, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/26/technology/spacex-elon-musk-pay-board-governance.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Financial Times, “How to make sense of SpaceX‘s nonsensical valuation,” May 21, 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> The Motley Fool, “Honestly, the SpaceX Prospectus Is Far Worse Than I Imagined,” Sean Williams, May 26, 2026, https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/05/26/the-spacex-prospectus-is-far-worse-than-i-imagined/.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Fortune, “Top analyst has harsh words for SpaceX debut: ‘We recommend that investors avoid this IPO’,” Shawn Tully, May 29, 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Bloomberg, “Musk‘s Moonshot Merger,” Matt Levine, February 3, 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Forbes, “Elon Musk,” https://www.forbes.com/profile/elon-musk/.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Fortune, “Elon Musk‘s SpaceX buys xAI in stunning deal valued at $1.25 trillion ahead of looming IPO,” Amanda Gerut, February 2, 2026, https://fortune.com/2026/02/02/elon-musk-spacex-xai-ipo-trillion/.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Forbes, “Could Musk Merge SpaceX And Tesla? Here‘s What Analysts—And Betting Markets—Say,” Ty Roush, May 27, 2026, https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2026/05/27/could-musk-merge-spacex-and-tesla-heres-what-analysts-and-betting-markets-say/; CNBC, “Will Elon Musk eventually merge SpaceX with Tesla? Speculation is building,” Ananya Chetia, May 21, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/will-elon-musk-eventually-merge-spacex-with-tesla-speculation-builds.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Yahoo! Finance, “SpaceX-Tesla Merger Could Trigger Elon Musk‘s $1 Trillion Pay Package: Report,” Badar Shaikh, June 2, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-tesla-merger-could-trigger-123106691.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, p. 57.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Reuters, “The SpaceX IPO and the lost battle for shareholder rights,” Ross Kerber, May 13, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/spacex-ipo-lost-battle-shareholder-rights-rosskerber-2026-05-13/.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance, “Even Musk Admirers Should Be Troubled by SpaceX‘s Governance,” Lucian Bebchuk and Kobi Kastiel, June 2, 2026, https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2026/06/02/even-musk-admirers-should-be-troubled-by-spacexs-governance/.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, p. 2.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Id.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Financial Times, “Inside SpaceX‘s audacious IPO plan,” Ryan McMorrow et al., May 20, 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Financial Times, Editorial, “To infinity and beyond, with the SpaceX IPO,” May 22, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/0e5ab16c-957e-44d6-aa16-fe23412ef6df?syn-25a6b1a6=1.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> New York Times, “How SpaceX Is Structured to Favor Elon Musk,” Ryan Mac, May 26, 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Wall Street Journal, “The Money and Drugs That Tie Elon Musk to Some Tesla Directors,” Kirsten Grind et al., February 3, 2024, https://www.wsj.com/tech/elon-musk-tesla-money-drugs-board-61af9ac4.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> “XONA Space Systems — Powerful Precise GPS,” Steve Jurvetson, May 8, 2024, https://steve.blog/2024/05/08/xona-space-systems-powerful-precise-gps/; PR Newswire, “Xona Raises $92M to Rebuild Satellite Navigation for a New Era,” June 26, 2025, https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/xona-raises-92m-to-rebuild-satellite-navigation-for-a-new-era-302491586.html; PC Magazine, “SpaceX to FCC: We Can Supply a GPS Alternative Through Starlink,” Michael Kan, May 14, 2025, https://www.pcmag.com/news/spacex-to-fcc-we-can-supply-a-gps-alternative-through-starlink.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 15 U.S.C. § 19.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, pp. 63-64.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> New York Times, “How SpaceX Is Structured to Favor Elon Musk,” Ryan Mac, May 26, 2026; Capital Forum, “Transcript of Conference Call on Forced Arbitration and Corporate Power in the Courts with Brendan Ballou,” May 12, 2026, https://thecapitolforum.com/resource/transcript-of-conference-call-on-forced-arbitration-and-corporate-power-in-the-courts-with-brendan-ballou/.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 15 U.S.C. § 78aa (giving federal courts exclusive jurisdiction over claims brought under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934).</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, p. 63.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, “Sunshine Act Notice,” September 10, 2025, https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/meetings-events/sunshine-act-notice-open-meeting-091725.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Financial Times, “SpaceX to drive a Cybertruck through corporate governance norms,” Sujeet Indap, May 26, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/7f34d58b-da81-4778-bca1-7aa89b08afca?syn-25a6b1a6=1.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Reuters, “The SpaceX IPO and the lost battle for shareholder rights,” Ross Kerber, May 13, 2026; TradingKey, “SpaceX IPO: Musk Controls 85.1% Voting Power, Shareholders Waive Jury Trials and Class Actions,” Jay Qian, May 21, 2026, https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261919584-elonmusk-spacex-ipo-tradingkey.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, p. 57.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Id.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Id.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Social Science Research Network, “The Growth and Consequences of Index Investing,” Anne-Florence Allard et al., January 12, 2026, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6056574.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Yahoo! Finance, “SpaceX IPO could hit popular index funds — and your 401(k) — in as little as 5 trading days as indexes relax their rules,” Rudro Chakrabarti, June 1, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-ipo-could-hit-popular-101500534.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Id.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Bloomberg, “Index Funds Can‘t Say No to SpaceX,” Matt Levine, May 26, 2026, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-05-26/index-funds-can-t-say-no-to-spacex; Financial Times, “Et tu, S&P 500?,” March 26, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/59adbe42-ca30-47f3-9cda-5415945e9368.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Business Insider, “Here‘s when SpaceX could show up in major indexes and popular ETFs after its IPO,” Naomi Buchanan, May 24, 2026, https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-ipo-index-investing-etfs-spy-vti-qqq-spcx-stock-2026-5; CNBC, “Elon Musk’s SpaceX weighs Nasdaq listing after seeking early index entry, Reuters sources say,” March 10, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/10/elon-musks-spacex-weighs-nasdaq-listing-after-seeking-early-index-entry.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Yahoo! Finance, “Elon Musk‘s SpaceX Could Be Fast-Tracked Into S&P 500 After IPO Under Proposed Rule Changes,” Badir Shaikh, May 2, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/elon-musks-spacex-could-fast-180121306.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Bloomberg, “Index Funds Can‘t Say No to SpaceX,” Matt Levine, May 26, 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Id.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> S&P Dow Jones Indices, “S&P Dow Jones Indices Consultation on Treatment of MegaCap Companies,” press release, April 30, 2026, https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20260430-1483123/1483123_spdji-us-indices-megacaps-consult-20260430.pdf.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Yahoo! Finance, “SpaceX Faces Delay to S&P 500 Inclusion After Index Provider Keeps Existing Criteria (SPCX),” Fiona Craig, June 5, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-faces-delay-p-500-100109864.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Yahoo! Finance, “Buckle Up, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Index Fund Investors. SpaceX Could Soon Become 1 of Your Largest Positions,” Daniel Foelber, May 31, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/buckle-p-500-nasdaq-index-162000546.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> FTSE Russell, “Consultation for the Russell US Equity Indexes on the timing of IPOs and the treatment of companies with a high free float market capitalization,” February 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Wall Street Journal, “FTSE Russell Latest to Make U.S. Index Inclusion Easier Ahead of SpaceX IPO,” Joe Stonor, May 27, 2026, https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/ftse-russell-latest-to-make-u-s-index-inclusion-easier-ahead-of-spacex-ipo-35157adf.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Post on X by Eric Balchunas, June 4, 2026, https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/2062647912065044532?s=20.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> CNBC, “SpaceX insiders will get to sell shares earlier than usual after the IPO,” Leslie Picker, May 21, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/spacex-insiders-will-get-to-sell-shares-earlier-than-usual-after-the-ipo.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Financial Times, “Et tu, S&P 500?,” Robin Wigglesworth, March 26, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/59adbe42-ca30-47f3-9cda-5415945e9368.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> RIABiz, “Fidelity soars to $16.4 trillion of assets, a 16% jump of $2.3 trillion for 12 months, and widens gap on BlackRock and Schwab,” Brooke Southall, August 14, 2025, https://riabiz.com/a/2025/8/15/fidelity-soars-to-164-trillion-of-assets-a-16-jump-of-23-trillion-for-12-months-and-widens-gap-on-blackrock-and-schwab.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Yahoo! Finance, “Fidelity Cuts SpaceX IPO Eligibility by 99%, But 5 Rules Could Cost You Access,” Lockridge Okoth, June 4, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/fidelity-cuts-spacex-ipo-eligibility-183319186.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Bloomberg, “Trump Officials Held Millions of Dollars of SpaceX Ahead of IPO,” Annie Massa, Sophie Alexander, and Bill Allison, June 3, 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> New York Times, “SpaceX Files to Go Public, Setting Stage for Huge I.P.O.,” Ryan Mac, Lauren Hirsch, and Maureen Farrell, April 1, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/technology/spacex-ipo-elon-musk.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> See, e.g., Reuters, “Exclusive: Elon Musk‘s SpaceX weighs Nasdaq listing after seeking early index entry, sources say,” Anirban Sen and Echo Wang, March 10, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/elon-musks-spacex-weighs-nasdaq-listing-after-seeking-early-index-entry-sources-2026-03-10/; Reuters, “Exclusive: Musk rewrites IPO playbook with large slice of SpaceX stock for retail investors, source says,” Echo Wang, Milana Vinn, and Sabrina Valle, March 26, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/musk-rewrites-ipo-playbook-with-large-slice-spacex-stock-retail-investors-source-2026-03-26/.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Cornell Law School Legal Information Institute, “Gun Jumping,” https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/gun_jumping.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 15 U.S.C. § 77e; 17 C.F.R. § 230.135.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Forbes, “Elon Musk‘s xAI Buys X — Here’s What That Means For You,” Kate O‘Flaherty, March 31, 2025, https://www.forbes.com/sites/kateoflahertyuk/2025/03/31/elon-musks-xai-buys-x-heres-what-that-means-for-you/.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> CNBC, “SpaceX skeptics have added reason for concern after Musk comments diverge from IPO filing,” Lora Kolodny, May 29, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/spacex-skeptics-concerned-as-musk-comments-diverge-from-ipo-filing.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> CNBC, “Elon Musk‘s tweets are moving markets — and some investors are worried,” Sam Shead, January 29, 2021.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> New York Times, “How SpaceX Is Structured to Favor Elon Musk,” Ryan Mac, May 26, 2026.</p>\n<div></div>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑:石秀珍 SF183</p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>严防马斯克割韭菜!美参议员致信SEC:必须叫停SpaceX上市!(附12页信函)</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n严防马斯克割韭菜!美参议员致信SEC:必须叫停SpaceX上市!(附12页信函)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-12 09:20 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-06-12/doc-inicazrx3618807.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>来源:财经会议圈\n\n 拆解史上最大IPO背后的资本收割游戏\n 华盛顿的“拦路虎”\n 2026年6月11日,就在SpaceX距离正式登陆纳斯达克仅剩不到24小时之际,一封火药味十足的12页信函直抵美国证券交易委员会(SEC)。\n 发信人不是别人,正是以“华尔街死敌”著称的民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)。她在信中措辞激烈地要求SEC:必须推迟SpaceX的IPO...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-06-12/doc-inicazrx3618807.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/93/w550h343/20260612/c59a-ca4d9fe3735d970a16c53a05c0fe5f26.png","relate_stocks":{"LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","LU1989763690.USD":"东方汇理世代食品基金A2 Acc","TSII":"REX TSLA Growth & Income ETF","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU1989763427.SGD":"CPR Invest - Food For Generations A2 Acc 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SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","09766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉-U","QDTE":"Roundhill N-100 0DTE Covered Call Strategy ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-06-12/doc-inicazrx3618807.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2642537392","content_text":"来源:财经会议圈\n\n 拆解史上最大IPO背后的资本收割游戏\n 华盛顿的“拦路虎”\n 2026年6月11日,就在SpaceX距离正式登陆纳斯达克仅剩不到24小时之际,一封火药味十足的12页信函直抵美国证券交易委员会(SEC)。\n 发信人不是别人,正是以“华尔街死敌”著称的民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)。她在信中措辞激烈地要求SEC:必须推迟SpaceX的IPO上市,这场“史上最大规模IPO”对投资者保护和市场完整性构成了前所未有的威胁。\n 沃伦在信中写下了一句振聋发聩的警告:\n\n“你们必须推迟该登记声明的生效时间。SpaceX的IPO创造了一个新问题:它正在操纵主要的股市指数,强迫数百万投资指数基金的普通散户在别无选择的情况下,被迫承担SpaceX的巨大风险。”\n\n 这话听起来刺耳,但细看SpaceX的上市设计,你会发现沃伦的担忧绝非杞人忧天。\n\n 离谱的“一口价”\n 135美元的爱买不买\n 传统IPO的玩法,大家都懂:投行先给一个价格区间,比如100-120美元,然后根据市场认购情况最终定价,这叫“价格发现”。\n 但SpaceX不玩这一套。\n 它直接甩出135美元/股的“一口价”,爱买不买。\n 这在华尔街历史上极为罕见。一家公司估值高达1.75万亿-2万亿美元,却连最基本的市场博弈定价环节都省了,摆明了就是“我说多少就是多少”。\n 更离谱的是散户分配比例。\n 美股常规IPO,散户份额通常只有5%-10%,绝大多数份额都会留给长期持有的机构基石投资者。但SpaceX反其道而行之,将30%的IPO份额分配给散户,金额高达225亿美元。\n 外界普遍吹捧这是“让利散户、共享红利”,但内行看门道:\n\n\n机构投资者追求长期稳定、风险可控,是市场的压舱石;\n\n\n散户受情绪、舆论、偶像滤镜驱动,盲目跟风、追涨杀跌,波动率极高。\n\n\n 马斯克拥有庞大的粉丝群体,他们会自发造势、无脑买入,短期强行推高股价。但后续只要出现任何负面舆情,即便公司基本面毫无变化,股价也会因为散户情绪崩塌而大幅跳水。\n 参考历史案例:Robinhood曾将35%新股份额分给散户,上市后被散户爆炒至85美元,热度褪去后半年暴跌至15美元,高位接盘散户全线深套。\n SpaceX本次散户占比极高,未来必然复刻同款走势:短期情绪拉涨,长期散户买单。\n\n 估值泡沫\n 市销率100倍的天方夜谭\n SpaceX的估值到底有多离谱?我们来看看硬数据。\n 2025年,SpaceX全年营收187亿美元,估值却突破1.75万亿美元,市销率接近100倍。\n 做个对比:\n\n\nAI龙头Anthropic估值近万亿美元,市销率仅21倍;\n\n\nOpenAI市销率也只有34倍;\n\n\n这两家AI企业的营收增速,远高于SpaceX,估值倍数却远低于它。\n\n\n 对比之下就能发现,所谓的AI泡沫,和SpaceX的估值泡沫相比,根本不值一提。\n 更夸张的是,招股书中宣称公司远期潜在市场规模(TAM)高达28.5万亿美元。这个数字是什么概念?远超中国全年20万亿级的GDP体量,完全脱离现实商业逻辑,纯属夸张造势。\n 还有马斯克的薪酬解锁条件:授予其10亿股、价值约6000亿美元的股权,解锁要求包括:\n 公司市值突破7.5万亿美元;\n 完成火星移民核心布局;\n 在火星落地100万常住人口。\n 这在任何理性投资者看来,都是天方夜谭。但这就是投行的基本功:用专业模型、海量数据、行业术语,把虚无缥缈的故事包装得逻辑自洽、看似可行。\n “包子式”包装\n 用星链包裹xAI的资本游戏\n 从一线ECM投行分析师的内行视角来看,SpaceX的估值逻辑本质上是一套“层层嵌套打包”模式:\n 用盈利稳定、现金流优质的星链业务,包裹业绩惨淡、无法独立上市的xAI业务,形成“优质资产兜底、劣质资产挂靠”的包子式结构。\n 来看2025年的真实财务数据:\n\n\n星链部门:收入114亿美元,盈利72亿美元(唯一优质资产);\n\n\n火箭发射部门:收入41亿美元,亏损6.62亿美元;\n\n\nxAI部门:收入13亿美元,亏损130亿美元(纯纯的包袱)。\n\n\n 看似三大核心业务协同发力,实则只有星链是核心盈利资产,其余业务均为亏损包袱。\n 这套打包模式还实现了“废物利用、税务套利”:xAI常年持续亏损,单独运营会导致大量税务抵扣额度作废。而通过整体打包上市,所有亏损额度均可并入主体财报,合法抵扣利润、降低整体税负。\n 这就是华尔街的真实玩法:所谓的公允估值、专业模型,从来不是测算出来的,而是机构之间反复扯皮、博弈、妥协出来的“市场公约数”。\n 纳斯达克的“规则特供”\n 被动资金接盘局\n 为了确保上市成功,这次IPO的设计可谓是煞费苦心,其中最争议的莫过于纳斯达克专门为SpaceX修改规则。\n 规则修改内容:将纳入纳斯达克100指数的时间从3个月缩短至15天,而且是加权纳入(权重不合理拉高3倍)。\n 这意味着什么?\n 美国有大量被动指数基金、养老基金、401K退休金账户,会自动买入纳斯达克100成分股。也就是说,只要熬过15天,就可以用老百姓的养老金来给SpaceX接盘了。\n 据测算,仅被动基金强制配置的资金就高达100-200亿美元。\n 精明的资金早已提前布局:提前低价建仓,等待指数纳入、被动资金进场后高位套现。叠加散户狂热抢购、主动基金布局、中东热钱涌入,上市初期流通股稀缺,股价必然被暴力拉升,制造极致的赚钱效应。\n 这场狂欢的终极剧本,早已注定:\n 上市拉升后,马斯克、早期股东、核心员工会通过新股增发、股票质押贷款等方式持续套现(马斯克历来偏好质押套现,特斯拉时期亦是如此)。内部利益方离场完毕后,股价终将回归基本面,所有浮亏、泡沫风险,全部由后进场的机构和散户承接。\n 而这些机构资金,本质也是普通人的养老钱、理财钱。\n 星链业务遇瓶颈\n 对美军“趁火打劫”\n 很多人不知道的是,星链业务已经触及瓶颈,连带火箭发射业务的未来订单也存疑。\n 来看数据:\n\n\n2025年一季度,星链用户规模1030万,比去年翻了一倍,但前一年可是翻了三倍的,增速明显下滑;\n\n\n更可怕的是增长是怎么来的?平均每用户收入(ARPU)从2023年的99美元/月降到2024年的91美元,再降到2025年的80美元,到2025年一季度已经暴降至66美元。\n\n\n 完全是靠降价换量、打价格战!\n 原因不难理解:如果你住在纽约、东京、上海,根本不会用星链。星链就是给偏远地区用的,但偏远地区之所以偏远,就是因为人少。To C端增长见顶了。\n 那怎么办?只能对军方涨价。\n 前段时间美军在战场大量使用名为“卢卡斯”的一次性无人机,内置星链终端。前线激战正酣,SpaceX突然要求将网络费用翻5倍,从原先的5000美元/月直接涨到25000美元/月。\n 理由是:你原本买的是“地面套餐”,实际用在飞行器上,就得按“飞行器套餐”付款。\n 结果服软的居然是美军!媒体询问负责人,他只说SpaceX依然是“稳固可靠的长期合作伙伴”。\n 这件事充分说明:SpaceX已经具备对军方的议价能力,但这也暴露出其实体业务增长乏力的尴尬现实。\n 沃伦的三大“地雷”指控\n 沃伦在致SEC的信中,详细列举了SpaceX在财务和治理上的三大“地雷”:\n 1. xAI收购案可能存在会计造假或估值误导\n SpaceX收购马斯克另一家公司xAI的过程中,交易定价是否公允?是否存在通过关联交易转移利益?这些问题都需要SEC彻查。\n 2. 马斯克个人利益与公司利益存在严重冲突\n 马斯克同时是SpaceX和xAI的大股东,两家公司之间的交易,本质上是“左手倒右手”。这种利益输送的风险,在IPO招股书中是否被充分披露?\n 3. 马斯克在公司内部拥有独断专行的权力,缺乏有效制衡\n 目前马斯克手握SpaceX 82%的投票权,意味着这家近2万亿估值的行业巨头,完全由他一人掌控,没有任何机构或股东能够制衡、干预。\n 成也创始人,险也创始人。 过去两年,马斯克极度痴迷AI和太空数据中心赛道,这意味着未来很长一段时间,SpaceX将持续投入巨额资本用于新业务研发和布局,重资产投入之下,战略失误、投入失败的风险极高。\n 资本慌乱\n 为什么急着上市?\n 很多人会问:SpaceX明明可以不用上市,为什么马斯克这么着急?\n 答案很简单:这不是企业发展需要,而是资本的集体慌乱。\n 原因一:全球风投行业迎来数十年最严峻的退出危机\n 世界经济论坛5月发布的最新数据显示:\n\n\n当前全球未上市的独角兽企业中,20%已成立超15年,59%已成立超10年;\n\n\n企业从种子轮到首轮退出的周期,相比2022年拉长了45%。\n\n\n 行业常规规则里,风投基金对LP的承诺退出周期仅为10年。这意味着,超半数独角兽早已超出约定退出期限,大量风投资金长期被套牢。\n 原因二:AI行业极度烧钱,融资窗口期短暂\n OpenAI去年亏损超80亿美元,Anthropic去年亏损超30亿美元,且两家企业未来数年仍将持续大额烧钱。\n 业内普遍认为,AI行业泡沫已然存在,只是没人能精准预判破裂时间。马斯克急于落地IPO,就是为了抢占高位窗口期,锁定万亿估值,提前规避后续市场下跌风险。\n 原因三:抢占AI资本红利的末班车\n 当下是全球市场对AI概念溢价最高、资金最狂热的阶段。SpaceX抢先完成IPO,能够率先吸干华尔街所有AI+太空赛道的增量资金。\n 高端资本博弈向来朴素:先到先得、先上市先收割。\n 三个阶段:看清洗牌时刻\n SpaceX上市必须看准三个阶段:\n 第一阶段:看上市当天能否不破发\n 如果流通盘这么小(仅释放5%股份)、承销团这么强、机构认购这么热还能破发,说明市场其实已经虚透了。\n 第二阶段:看上市后15到30天\n 能否顺利纳入纳斯达克100指数,把筹码成功交给被动基金(养老金)。\n 第三阶段:看半年后大股东解禁\n 5%的流通比例意味着95%的股份在IPO时处于锁定状态。半年后(12月初),这些股份将解除锁定。那些在几十亿、几百亿估值时入场的早期股东,将面临十几倍、几十倍甚至上百倍的暴利退出机会。\n 那将是怎样的一场腥风血雨?\n 谁是最大的赢家?\n 这场顶级资本盛宴里,收益圈层极度分化。\n 真正的赢家只有三类:\n 持股42%的马斯克本人——上市后财富将突破万亿级,成为全球首位万亿富翁;\n 合计持股10%-15%的公司核心员工——早期入局,成本极低;\n 早期入局的风投机构与股东——终于等到退出时刻。\n 除此之外,21家承销投行是最大的隐形赢家。\n 今年投行行业普遍低迷、降薪裁员,而SpaceX这一个超级项目,就能让所有参与投行团队超额盈利。后续还能持续解锁二级市场增发、可转债、并购交易、大宗交易、股票回购等持续业务,堪称投行的“年度飞升项目”,一年顶往年五年收益。\n 而输家呢?\n 所有脱离基本面的高估值狂欢,最终都会回归均值。狂欢落幕之后,永远是后进场的普通人承担所有风险。\n 历史的轮回\n 运河狂热与太空泡沫\n 最后,让我们用一个经典历史案例帮大家看懂本质。\n 19世纪全球掀起运河狂热,苏伊士运河、巴拿马运河开凿前夕,无数法国中产疯狂募资入局。最终巴拿马运河公司1889年破产,初代投资者尽数血本无归。\n 但运河最终成功通航,彻底改写了全球贸易格局,造福了后续上百年的全球经济和无数行业。可初代的基建投资者,几乎没有吃到任何时代红利。\n 如今的SpaceX、追捧它的华尔街资本,何尝不是当年的运河狂热?\n 我从不否认SpaceX的伟大,也不否认太空经济的星辰大海,但作为普通投资者,我们一定要克制对个人英雄主义的崇拜、对科幻浪漫叙事的盲从。\n 沃伦的警告,不该被忽视\n SpaceX是实体产业的颠覆者,却是资本市场的收割者。\n 它用极致务实打破了传统航天的暴利与僵化,却用极致资本套路,打造了一场属于顶级圈层的泡沫盛宴。\n 伊丽莎白·沃伦的警告,不该被忽视。\n SEC是否会在政治压力下叫停这场“资本狂欢”?马斯克将如何反击这位“死对头”的狙击?周五的上市计划是否会突遭变数?\n 这一切,都将在未来48小时内揭晓。\n 但无论结果如何,普通投资者都应该记住一句话:\n 所有脱离基本面的高估值狂欢,最终都会回归均值。狂欢落幕之后,永远是后进场的普通人承担所有风险。\n 这是一封美国参议院银行、住房与城市事务委员会成员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)于2026年6月9日写给美国证券交易委员会(SEC)主席保罗·阿特金斯(Paul Atkins)的信函,要求SEC推迟SpaceX的IPO注册声明生效。\n 以下是全文翻译:\n 美国参议院银行、住房与城市事务委员会华盛顿特区 20510-6075\n 2026年6月9日\n 尊敬的保罗·阿特金斯主席: 美国证券交易委员会 东北F街100号 华盛顿特区 20549\n 阿特金斯主席:\n 我怀着极度关切的心情,就太空探索技术公司(Space Exploration Technologies Corp.,简称“SpaceX”)即将进行的首次公开募股(IPO)致函您。\n 据报道,由埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)拥有的航空航天和人工智能公司SpaceX,计划在本月晚些时候以高达2万亿美元的估值向投资者募集高达750亿美元——这将使其成为“史上最大规模的股市首秀”。然而,此次IPO似乎对普通投资者及其退休储蓄构成重大风险,同时为SpaceX内部人士(包括特朗普政府高级官员)带来巨大利益。\n 与SpaceX公开募股相关的风险源于该公司向证券交易委员会(“SEC”或“委员会”)提交的备案文件及其他公开报道中揭示的一系列问题:首先,SpaceX预计将以约100倍2025年营收的价格发行股票——这一估值倍数几乎史无前例,需要投资者对AI和太空两个领域的诸多假设抱以极大信心;其次,非传统的公司治理结构将使SpaceX首席执行官埃隆·马斯克拥有前所未有的权力,而投资者获得的权利将远低于传统公开股票购买者通常享有的权利;第三,主要股指提供商正在改写规则,为SpaceX快速进入其指数——以及驱动数百万美国人退休储蓄的投资基金——铺平道路。\n 最终的结果可能是灾难性的:如果SpaceX的估值崩溃,退休人员和家庭的投资者账户将遭受损失,且对任何公司不当行为几乎没有追索权,而地球上最富有的人则因缺乏监管而变得更加富有。SEC的核心使命是保护投资者,维护公平、有序和高效的市场。鉴于史上最大规模IPO对投资者保护和市场诚信构成的前所未有的威胁,您必须推迟任何加速注册声明生效的行为。\n 在允许公司向公众出售其股票之前,委员会必须考虑“公共利益和投资者保护”。在此过程中,委员会可以审查公司的初步招股说明书,以“确认其是否符合适用的会计标准和联邦证券法律法规的披露要求”。仅SpaceX IPO的巨大规模,在正常情况下就足以证明SEC进行仔细审查和关注投资者需求的合理性。但这些并非正常情况:诸多额外因素加剧了担忧,并要求SEC采取行动以履行其投资者保护和市场诚信职责,即推迟注册声明的生效。\n SpaceX的估值与会计\n SpaceX股票的价值——无论是现在还是可预见的未来——似乎建立在一系列独特的投机性事件之上。据《金融时报》报道,SpaceX目前的财务状况“对于计算公司价值毫无用处”,部分原因是评估尚不存在的活动的固有挑战,但这些活动可能成为一家使命崇高(“将意识之光延伸到星辰”)的公司增长的一部分。据晨星(Morningstar)的一份报告,SpaceX的价值可能不到其1.75万亿美元估值的一半。\n 事实上,“以《金融时报》此前报道的1.75万亿美元估值计算,SpaceX将成为美国股市第七大公司。然而,按每年190亿美元的营收排名,它仅位列第200位,与幸运符麦片制造商通用磨坊(General Mills)相当。”市场“从未有过对一只如此投机却又如此庞大的股票进行定价的先例”,“最大的问题是,高达1.8万亿美元的估值能否在公开市场中持续”。部分问题在于准确评估SpaceX的崇高目标(包括太空旅行和星际居住)是不可能的。但这也是该公司持续亏损和未能实现过去目标的产物。因此,市场分析师对其目标估值背后的数学逻辑提出了质疑,称之为“荒谬的”、“烟幕弹式的会计”和“真正脱离现实的”。如果该估值无法持续,选择以高估值买入的投资者——或因投资于指数基金而被迫买入的投资者,而这些基金本身基于已修改规则以纳入SpaceX的指数——将为此付出代价。\n 此外,IPO的估值部分由SpaceX与xAI的2026年合并决定。由于埃隆·马斯克身处交易双方,“他亲自与自己谈判交易,自己设定相对估值,自己签署合并协议,自己完成交易,然后才告知董事会和股东”。这让马斯克有机会将xAI的估值抬高到超过其资产价值的水平——换句话说,单方面决定自己交易的价值——并将其纳入即将进行的IPO。SEC应评估SpaceX与xAI之间(以及埃隆·马斯克控制的其他公司组成的完整网络)的交易和关系是否因不准确或误导性的会计或估值而对投资者构成风险。鉴于众多主动和被动投资者将暴露于SpaceX的风险之下,缺乏基本面支撑的估值可能威胁我们资本市场的完整性和稳定性。\n SpaceX-xAI合并是马斯克先生控制的不同商业实体之间一系列共同控制交易中的一例——引发了关于SpaceX未来计划与其控制的公司进行整合的任何疑问。例如,正如商业媒体推测的那样,如果特斯拉(Tesla)和SpaceX合并,可能立即触发马斯克先生1万亿美元的特斯拉薪酬方案,因为控制权变更条款将取消此前解锁股票所需的业绩条件。将这些新的特斯拉股票转换为新的SpaceX股票可能对SpaceX股东产生重大影响。如果确实存在将特斯拉和SpaceX合并的计划,此类计划应向潜在投资者披露,因为它们应被视为对公司业务战略和公开募股后续价值具有重大重要性的事项。鉴于SpaceX的S-1备案文件未提及此类合并对SpaceX估值的影响——尽管它承认与马斯克先生其他企业的业务交易可能发生——SEC应在加速SpaceX注册声明生效之前,对马斯克先生关于其众多强大企业所有权结构的未来意图进行彻底调查。\n IPO后的公司治理\n IPO还引发担忧,因为SpaceX的IPO后公司治理结构侵蚀了基本的股东权利,并将非同寻常的公司权力授予马斯克先生。公开交易公司理应对其股东负责。SpaceX的IPO将颠覆这一模式,股东提供数十亿美元的新资本,却没有任何对马斯克先生或公司领导层的问责措施,因为公司“结合了超级投票权股票、强制仲裁、更严格的股东提案规则以及德克萨斯州公司法,将控制权赋予SpaceX首席执行官埃隆·马斯克和其他内部人士。SpaceX还将限制投资者挑战管理层、在法庭起诉以及强制召开代理权争夺的能力”。\n 正如领先的公司法学者所言,“即使是马斯克的崇拜者,也应该对SpaceX的公司治理感到不安”。\n SpaceX的初步招股说明书表明,公司将维持双重股权结构,马斯克先生持有的每一股股票的投票权是向公众发售的每一股股票的10倍。这种不对称性将剥夺股东对重大公司决策(如收购、剥离或重组)的任何权力。正如公司招股说明书所承认的,“马斯克先生将能够控制需要股东批准的事项的结果”。此外,拟议的公司治理结构实质上剥夺了董事会的管理公司权力,使其无法解雇首席执行官:“马斯克只能由B类股东多数投票罢免董事长或首席执行官——而他个人控制该股票类别93.6%的股份——实际上保证了他的职位。”正如《金融时报》社论版所言,“传统的治理制衡几乎完全缺失……[马斯克]将对投票权和董事会拥有几乎不可挑战的控制权”。\n 问题更加复杂的是,“在其他非典型安排中,SpaceX不计划让其董事会多数成员为独立董事”,包括“不使用独立董事委员会来决定高管薪酬,这是大多数公司的做法”。马斯克的地位很可能因其在董事会中强大朋友的存在而得到巩固,包括安东尼奥·格拉西亚斯(Antonio Gracias)和史蒂夫·尤尔韦森(Steve Jurvetson)。据报道,格拉西亚斯先生和尤尔韦森先生与马斯克先生私交甚密,并且是GPS信号市场的竞争对手。这引发了公司治理担忧,并存在违反反垄断法禁止关联董事(即公司董事同时担任其竞争对手董事会成员)的风险。\n SpaceX还试图限制股东通过法院获得法律救济的途径。根据其S-1备案文件,SpaceX计划通过强制大多数股东诉讼进入仲裁程序,使马斯克免受法律风险——这是一个不公开且系统性地偏向公司利益的过程。重要的是,仲裁将是联邦证券法下诉讼的唯一选择,因为德克萨斯州商业法院——SpaceX首选的法律争议审理地——对相关联邦证券法没有管辖权,这与S-1中声称该领域法律“尚未确定”的说法相反。虽然该条款最终可能无法执行,但SEC最近推翻了一项长期立场,即IPO中的强制仲裁条款不符合“公共利益和投资者保护”,这才使这种尝试成为可能。此外,“SpaceX选择了一项条款,仅允许持有公司3%或以上股份的股东提起所谓的‘派生’诉讼,代表公司起诉董事会或首席执行官——就像在更利于股东的特拉华州,一位小投资者提起的特斯拉薪酬投诉那样。如果SpaceX达到预期的1.75万亿美元估值,起诉的股东将需要至少525亿美元的股份。”SpaceX还打算通过提高股东提案门槛来保护马斯克对公司的单方面控制权,禁止其大多数投资者强制在股东大会上进行投票。\n 马斯克先生对SpaceX的权力程度尤其令人担忧,因为他的利益与SpaceX股东和投资者的利益之间不可避免地会产生冲突。公司招股说明书也承认了这一点:在向SEC提交的修订文件中,SpaceX承认,“未来可能在我们与马斯克先生及其拥有或关联的实体之间,就业务交易、潜在竞争活动或其他商业机会等方面产生利益冲突。在正常业务过程中,我们与其中一些公司进行了各种交易。”它继续写道:“马斯克先生或其关联方可能不时了解到某些商业机会(如收购机会或技术发展),并可能将这些机会导向他们投资的其他企业,在这种情况下,[投资者]可能无法了解或无法追求此类机会。”招股说明书还详细说明了马斯克先生——作为对SpaceX负有受托责任的公司董事——如何也可能拥有与SpaceX竞争的其他公司的资产:\n 根据我们的章程,马斯克先生及其关联方不受限制地拥有与我们直接或间接竞争的资产或从事业务,并且没有义务避免从事与我们相同或类似的业务活动或业务线,包括被视为与我们竞争的业务活动或业务线,或与我们的任何客户或供应商开展业务。此外,我们过去曾与马斯克先生关联的实体进行交易,未来也可能继续如此。我们可能选择此类交易,而非追求其他一些股东可能更喜欢或可能比我们选择追求的机会更具增值性的机会。\n SpaceX招股说明书的这些条款表明,其IPO将是史上规模最大的,也可能拥有史上最被操纵的公司结构。如果IPO以其当前形式获批,马斯克在SpaceX拥有的独特且不受约束的权力将对投资者、市场和公众造成严重担忧。此次IPO最终为未来IPO树立了危险的先例。\n 对被动投资者和资本市场的影响\n 关于SpaceX的估值和公司治理担忧,如果其IPO注册声明的生效被加速,将对市场诚信产生重大担忧。对于挑选和选择特定投资的投资者,他们至少能够避免投资于从事风险或不公平行为的公司。但SpaceX的IPO创造了一个新的担忧:主要股市指数正在被操纵,以迫使指数基金中的数百万投资者——这是一种通常成本较低、对散户投资者有吸引力的投资选择——投资SpaceX,并在没有选择的情况下面临SpaceX的重大风险。“分析师估计,在纳入后的几个月内,标普500、纳斯达克100和罗素1000追踪器将保守地强制买入150亿至300亿美元的SpaceX股票,更激进的流通股权重情景则会高得多”。\n 除上述公开交易股票向散户投资者的超额分配外,SpaceX的IPO还将使被动和主动投资者都面临重大风险。\n 主要股指有一套明确的规则来确定是否以及何时纳入新公司。这些规则为股票购买者提供了重要的投资者保护,使其免受新上市IPO的波动性和不确定性影响,并允许市场发现机制在指数纳入之前为公开公司建立公平价格。这些规则通常包括成熟度和可行性要求。例如,标普500要求公司在指数纳入前至少公开交易12个月,并且至少连续四个季度实现盈利。\n 但据报道,SpaceX已游说指数提供商改变其指数纳入规则。指数提供商也照办了,进行了修改,使SpaceX等大型科技公司更容易被快速纳入被动投资者的投资组合。4月,标普道琼斯指数公司宣布正在考虑修改规则,以便更容易让“超大市值”(MegaCap)公司——即股市中最大的公司——快速进入其指数。仅就标普500而言,该公司正在考虑的修改包括将标准的12个月IPO后等待期缩短至6个月,取消标准的10%流通股权要求,并豁免超大市值公司满足所有其他公司都需要满足才能符合资格的财务可行性标准。2026年6月4日,该公司宣布放弃拟议的修改,声明“不应仅基于市值授予财务可行性、成熟度和IWF(可投资权重因子)要求的例外”。除标普道琼斯指数外,尚无关于主要指数撤销为SpaceX做出的修改和例外的大规模报道。2026年5月1日,纳斯达克100实施了一项新的“快速进入”规则,允许按市值排名前40的公司在上市第七天就有资格被纳入。富时罗素(FTSE Russell)也效仿了。正如《华尔街日报》报道的那样,该公司“修改了规则,使新上市的大型公司更容易进入其美国指数,为被动投资者快速获取SpaceX和其他备受瞩目的上市公司的股票打开了大门”。\n 指数提供商对新公开募股的不同处理方式可能导致投资者对股票敞口的预期出现差异。此外,正如一位分析师警告的那样,这些不断变化的政策“可能在‘被动’指数之间造成显著的回报差异”。\n 对于投资于为SpaceX放宽规则的指数基金的投资者,这些修改可能导致他们被迫购买数十亿美元的SpaceX股票,而他们对此没有任何发言权。突然间,美国人的退休储蓄或养老金可能与SpaceX的市值挂钩。股票的普遍性将人为推高其价值,而SpaceX内部人士——得益于允许他们比往常更早出售股票的特殊规则——将能够迅速抛售其股份,让散户投资者接盘。结果可能是巨大的财富向上再分配——即使SpaceX没有盈利。简而言之,这些修改可能使一项金融工程计划得以实施,该计划操纵美国资本市场以 favor 马斯克先生及其盟友。正如一位《金融时报》评论员所言,“为什么标普道琼斯指数公司……似乎在 flirt with 一项放宽规则的修改,以允许埃隆·马斯克的卫星到AI公司快速进入?”这是SEC和指数提供商应该向公众回答的问题。\n 有利于SpaceX的修改不仅限于指数——大型资产管理公司也在做出改变。2026年6月4日,管理着16.4万亿美元资产的富达投资(Fidelity Investments)“将其SpaceX IPO准入要求从高达50万美元大幅削减至仅2,000美元”,为历史上最大的股票首秀之一向数百万散户投资者敞开了大门。因此,SpaceX新IPO的风险不仅限于大型机构投资者,还将波及小型个人投资者,因为此次IPO似乎缺乏通常存在的许多投资者和市场保护。\n 在考虑SpaceX IPO对投资者的风险时,您还必须考虑到,这些风险将因SpaceX股票被纳入主要指数以及通过主要资产管理公司和投资顾问向散户投资者开放而立即被放大。这创造了一种情景:当前SpaceX股东——包括特朗普政府高级官员——可以在危及美国投资者和我们金融稳定的同时使自己致富。\n 其他需要推迟生效的问题\n 除关于SpaceX财务披露、公司治理以及操纵股市指数以利于自身的诸多担忧外,还有三个其他考虑因素需要推迟公司注册文件的生效,并要求SEC进行彻底调查。首先,存在潜在证券法违规的问题,即关于SpaceX初始私人备案的泄露。早在SpaceX于2026年4月1日向SEC提交保密注册声明之前,新闻报道就携带了关于招股说明书内容的信息,并引发了投资者兴趣。如果这些泄露是SpaceX为在IPO前增加市场兴趣而进行的协调尝试的结果,可能构成证券法第5条的违规,该条款禁止“抢跑”(gun-jumping)——在提供注册声明之前出售或宣传股票。法律规定,“除非注册声明对某种证券已生效,否则任何人直接或间接……使用州际贸易或邮件的任何交通或通讯手段或工具,通过任何招股说明书或其他方式出售该证券,均属违法。”由于SpaceX在任何注册声明之前就已受到关于上市的非同寻常的公众关注,SEC应加强对SpaceX IPO策略的审查,以确保公司未违反第5条。\n 其次,存在马斯克先生在X上发布关于公司的声明所引发的市场混乱问题——X是他也拥有的社交媒体平台,现在属于SpaceX的xAI部门。一些金融记者认为,这些声明与SpaceX公开备案文件中的业务信息存在实质性矛盾。无论这些偏差是否重大,马斯克先生以在X上凭一时兴起发布公开声明而闻名,这些声明可以瞬间撼动市场。他还以尽管未实现宏大的业务目标却兑现巨额薪酬方案而闻名。如果这种行为模式持续下去,将对SpaceX的可信度产生重大怀疑,以及其备案的IPO是否充分告知投资者与马斯克先生相关的风险。\n 关于证券法违规和马斯克先生矛盾声明的担忧,足以让SEC推迟SpaceX注册声明的生效,并允许市场有一段冷静期,以更彻底地评估SpaceX IPO的合理性。\n 结论与问题\n SpaceX的IPO似乎为股东和未来公开公司上市呈现了独特且开创先例的风险。公司的会计和财务报告存在令人不安的漏洞,并被今年早些时候发生的大规模且不透明的xAI合并所笼罩。公司的公司治理结构将独特的权力授予其首席执行官,并严重限制股东权利。主要股指在放弃旧规则或制定新规则以允许SpaceX纳入方面的共谋,意味着数十亿美元的被动投资将被迫进入该公司,使退休人员和普通投资者面临风险。\n 简而言之,投资者和公众对SpaceX及其计划如何使用其寻求募集的数十亿美元存在众多未解答的重大问题。SEC不应在未经严格审查SpaceX财务报表、公司治理结构及其可能对散户投资者(包括通过指数基金)的影响的情况下,加速SpaceX注册声明的生效。\n 我要求您在2026年6月23日之前,对以下问题提供详细答复:\n SEC打算如何评估SpaceX关于其估值的主张,基于其对太空旅行、多行星居住和“将意识之光延伸到星辰”等主张?请包括关于以下方面的具体信息: a. 任何潜在的高估来源 b. SpaceX提出的估值(1.75万亿美元)与其营收(每年190亿美元)之间的差异\n SEC确保投资者获得清晰准确披露的计划是什么,尽管存在复杂的会计问题?请提供关于以下方面的具体信息: a. 近期xAI收购的估值 b. 联合创始人离职的影响 c. SpaceX各子公司(包括发射、星链和xAI)的营收和亏损,包括星链用户群的行业标准信息 d. 承销银行之间任何潜在的利益冲突 e. SpaceX审计师的严谨性和独立性,包括任何潜在的利益冲突 f. 任何可能对SpaceX股票价值产生重大影响的预期未来合并或重大交易\n SEC是否认为,从保密备案草案泄露的信息已实质性增加了市场对SpaceX首次公开募股的兴趣?\n 鉴于有报道称保密备案草案的信息被不当泄露,可能构成“抢跑”,SEC是否考虑过推迟SpaceX的首次公开募股?\n SEC在评估IPO时,计划如何考虑SpaceX的公司结构——该结构将几乎完全的控制权授予一个人?请提供关于以下方面的具体信息: a. 其双重股权结构 b. 埃隆·马斯克对投票权的控制 c. 董事会成员的独立性,鉴于他们与控股股东马斯克先生的个人和业务关系 d. SpaceX与马斯克先生控制的其他实体之间潜在的利益冲突交易\n SEC计划如何保护被动投资者免受SpaceX股票的风险,包括: a. 机构投资者(如养老基金),以及 b. 被动指数基金的股东\n SEC是否会寻求SpaceX关于州法院对《交易法》索赔管辖权结论的法律依据?\n 此致\n 伊丽莎白·沃伦 银行、住房与城市事务委员会 资深成员(Ranking Member)\n TIM SCOTT SOUTH CAROLINA, CHAIRMAN\n ELIZABETH WARREN MASSACHUSETTS, RANKING MEMBER\n MIKE CRAPO, IDAHO\n JACK REED, RHODE ISLAND\n MIKE ROUNDS, SOUTH DAKOTA\n MARK R. WARNER, VIRGINIA\n THOM TILLIS, NORTH CAROLINA\n CHRIS VAN HOLLEN, MARYLAND\n JOHN KENNEDY, LOUISIANA\n CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO, NEVADA\n BILL HAGERTY, TENNESSEE\n TINA SMITH, MINNESOTA\n CYNTHIA LUMMIS, WYOMING\n RAPHAEL G. WARNOCK, GEORGIA\n KATIE BOYD BRITT, ALABAMA\n ANDY KIM, NEW JERSEY\n PETE RICKETTS, NEBRASKA\n RUBEN GALLEGO, ARIZONA\n JIM BANKS, INDIANA\n LISA BLUNT ROCHESTER, DELAWARE\n KEVIN CRAMER, NORTH DAKOTA\n ANGELA D. ALSOBROOKS, MARYLAND\n BERNIE MORENO, OHIO\n DAVID McCORMICK, PENNSYLVANIA\n JANIE FAULKNER, STAFF DIRECTOR\n JON DONENBERG, DEMOCRATIC STAFF DIRECTOR\n United States SenateCOMMITTEE ON BANKING, HOUSING, AND URBAN AFFAIRSWASHINGTON, DC 20510-6075\n June 9, 2026\n The Honorable Paul Atkins\n Chair\n U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission\n 100 F Street NE\n Washington, DC 20549\n Dear Chair Atkins,\n I write with extreme concern regarding the upcoming initial public offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (“SpaceX”). According to reports, SpaceX, an aerospace and artificial intelligence company owned by Elon Musk, seeks to target a valuation of upwards of $2 trillion and raise up to $75 billion from investors in its offering later this month – making it “the largest stock-market debut in history.” However, this IPO appears to present significant risks to ordinary investors and their retirement savings – while carrying enormous advantages for SpaceX insiders, including senior Trump Administration officials.\n The risks associated with SpaceX‘s public offering are caused by a confluence of concerns revealed by the company’s filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC,” or “the Commission”) and other public reporting: first, “SpaceX is expected to offer stock at roughly 100 times 2025 revenue — a valuation multiple with little precedent, and one that requires numerous leaps of faith around both the AI and space theses;” second, a non-traditional governance structure that will leave SpaceX‘s CEO, Elon Musk, with an unprecedented level of power, and investors with significantly fewer rights than those traditionally offered to purchasers of public shares; and third, major stock index providers rewriting their rules to fast track SpaceX’s entry into their indexes — and into the investment funds that power millions of Americans‘ retirement savings.\n The net result could be disastrous: a scenario where retirees‘ and families’ investment accounts take a hit if SpaceX‘s valuation falters, with little recourse for any corporate misconduct, while the wealthiest man on earth becomes even wealthier due to a lack of oversight. The SEC’s core mission is to protect investors and maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets. Given the unprecedented threats to investor protection and market integrity posed by the biggest IPO in history, you must delay any eventual acceleration of the registration statement‘s effectiveness accordingly. Before the company is allowed to go public, the SEC must investigate whether index funds and other financial entities involved in SpaceX’s IPO are adequately protecting investors, and the company must fill disclosure gaps related to valuation, ensure risks and details related to its concentrated governance structure are clear to investors, and abandon mandatory arbitration to provide shareholders whose rights are otherwise gutted in this structure a minimum avenue for recourse.\n SpaceX‘s IPO Process and the SEC’s Role\n SpaceX has been privately held since its founding by Elon Musk in 2002, raising approximately $9 billion in equity capital through private markets. Remaining private has allowed Mr. Musk to retain extensive control over the company. Mr. Musk, in addition to being the founder, serves as Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer, and Chairman of the Board, in addition to being the controlling shareholder. Earlier this year, SpaceX combined with another privately held company founded and controlled by Mr. Musk, xAI, in “the biggest merger in history... to create a $1.25 trillion giant.” SpaceX filed its IPO registration statement with the SEC on May 20, 2026, having reportedly filed a confidential registration around April 1, 2026. If the SpaceX IPO goes through at the target valuations, the “blockbuster listing will unlock vast new wealth for SpaceX executives and investors ... But all of the holdings pale in comparison to the riches that Musk will unlock. He holds [vested shares] which could be worth about $700bn. A successful listing could see him become the world‘s first trillionaire.”\n Before allowing a company to sell its shares to the public, the Commission is required to consider “the public interest and the protection of investors.” In so doing, the Commission may review the company‘s preliminary prospectus “for compliance with the applicable accounting standards and the disclosure requirements of the federal securities laws and regulations.” The massive size of the SpaceX IPO alone, under normal circumstances, would justify careful SEC review and attention to investor needs. But these are not normal circumstances: a number of additional factors exacerbate concerns and require action by the SEC to meet its investor protection and market integrity mandates by delaying the effectiveness of SpaceX’s registration statement.\n SpaceX‘s Valuation and Accounting\n The value of SpaceX shares – now and in the foreseeable future – appears to be based on a uniquely speculative series of events. According to the Financial Times, SpaceX‘s finances today “are of no use in working out what the company is worth,” in part because of the inherent challenge of valuing activities that don’t yet exist but could be part of the growth of a company whose lofty mission is to “extend the light of consciousness to the stars.” According to a report from Morningstar, SpaceX may be worth less than half of the $1.75 trillion valuation it seeks.\n Indeed, “[a]t the valuation of $1.75tn previously reported by Financial Times, SpaceX would be the U.S. stock market‘s seventh-largest company. However, when ranked by its revenue of $19 billion a year, it would be 200th, on par with Lucky Charms cereal maker General Mills.” The market has “never before had to price a stock so speculative yet so large,” and “[t]he big question is whether a valuation as large as $1.8 trillion can be sustained in public markets.” Part of the problem is the impossibility of accurately valuing SpaceX’s lofty goals, including space travel and interplanetary habitation. But it is also the product of the company‘s consistent negative profitability, and on its failure to meet past goals. As a result, market analysts have raised concerns about the math underlying SpaceX’s target valuation, calling it “nonsensical,” “smoke-and-mirrors accounting,” and “truly out of this world.” If that valuation cannot be sustained, the investors who have chosen to buy in at lofty valuations – or will be forced to do so because of their investments in index funds, that are themselves based on indexes that have amended their rules to include SpaceX – will pay the price.\n Additionally, the IPO‘s value is set in part by SpaceX’s 2026 merger with xAI. Since Elon Musk was on both sides of the transaction, “he negotiate[d] the deal with himself, set the relative valuations himself, sign[ed] the merger agreement, close[d] the deal, and then [told] the boards and shareholders about it.” This gave Mr. Musk an opportunity to inflate the valuation of xAI in excess of its assets – in other words, unilaterally deciding the value of his own transaction – and roll this into the upcoming IPO. The SEC should evaluate whether transactions and other relationships between SpaceX and xAI (as well as the full web of other companies under Elon Musk‘s control) present risks to investors from inaccurate or misleading accounting or valuation. Given the range of both active and passive investors who will be exposed to SpaceX’s risk, valuations that are not supported by fundamentals may threaten the integrity and stability of our capital markets.\n The SpaceX-xAI merger is one in a series of common-control transactions between different business entities controlled by Mr. Musk – raising questions about any future plans SpaceX might have to integrate with Musk-controlled firms. For example, should Tesla and SpaceX merge as the business press has speculated, it could instantly trigger Mr. Musk‘s $1 trillion Tesla pay package due to a change in control provision that voids the performance conditions previously required to unlock the shares. Converting these new Tesla shares into new SpaceX shares could have significant implications for SpaceX shareholders. If plans do in fact exist to merge Tesla and SpaceX, such plans should be disclosed to prospective investors, as they should be considered materially important to the business strategy of the company and subsequent value of the public offering. Given that SpaceX’s S-1 makes no mention of the effect such a merger would have on SpaceX‘s valuation – even as it acknowledges that business transactions with Mr. Musk’s other ventures may occur – the SEC should conduct a thorough inquiry into Mr. Musk‘s future intentions regarding the ownership structure of his many powerful businesses before accelerating the effectiveness of SpaceX’s registration statement.\n Post-IPO Corporate Governance\n The IPO also poses concerns because SpaceX‘s post-IPO governance structure erodes fundamental shareholder rights and vests an extraordinary level of corporate power in Mr. Musk. Publicly traded companies are meant to be accountable to their shareholders. The SpaceX IPO will flip this model on its head, with shareholders providing billions of dollars in new capital with no accountability measures for Mr. Musk or company leadership, as the company “[combines] supervoting shares, mandatory arbitration, stricter rules on shareholder proposals and Texas corporate law to give control to SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and other insiders. SpaceX also will limit investors’ ability to challenge management, sue in court, and force proxy contests.”\n As leading corporate law scholars put it, “even Musk admirers should be troubled by SpaceX‘s governance.”\n SpaceX‘s preliminary prospectus indicates that the company will maintain a dual-class share structure, with each share held by Mr. Musk holding 10 times as much voting power as a share of the class offered to the public. Such asymmetry will deny shareholders any power over major corporate decisions like acquisitions, divestments, or restructuring. As the company’s prospectus admits, “Mr. Musk will be able to control the outcome of matters requiring shareholder approval.” In addition, the proposed governance structure essentially eliminates the Board of Directors‘ authority to manage the company, stripping it of the ability to fire the Chief Executive Officer: “Musk can only be removed as chair or chief executive by a majority vote of the class B shareholders — and personally controls 93.6 per cent of the share class — in effect guaranteeing his position.” As the editorial board of the Financial Times put it, “[t]raditional governance checks are almost entirely absent.... [Musk] will have a virtually unchallengeable grip on voting rights and the board.”\n Compounding the problem is that “among [other] atypical arrangements, SpaceX does not plan to have the majority of its board be independent directors,” including “not us[ing] a committee of independent board members to determine executive compensation, as most companies do.” Musk‘s position is likely to be entrenched by the presence of his powerful friends on the board of directors, including Antonio Gracias and Steve Jurvetson. Mr. Gracias and Mr. Jurvetson are reportedly personally close to Mr. Musk and competitors in the market for GPS signals. This raises corporate governance concerns, and runs the risk of violating antitrust laws banning interlocking directorates in which corporate directors sit on the boards of their competitors.\n SpaceX is also attempting to limit shareholders‘ access to the courts for legal remedies. According to its S-1 filing, SpaceX plans to insulate Musk from legal risk by forcing most shareholders’ suits into arbitration, a process hidden from public view and systematically tilted in favor of the company‘s interests. Importantly, arbitration would be the only option for suits under federal securities law, because the Texas Business Court – SpaceX’s preferred forum for legal disputes – does not have jurisdiction over the relevant federal securities laws, contrary to the S-1‘s assertion that the law in this area is “unsettled.” While the provision may not ultimately be enforceable, such an attempt has been made possible by the SEC’s recent reversal of a longstanding position that forced arbitration clauses in IPOs were not in “the public interest and protection of investors.” Furthermore, “SpaceX has opted for a provision that allows only shareholders holding 3 per cent or more of a company‘s shares to bring a so-called ’derivative‘ lawsuit on behalf of the company suing the board or chief executive, like the Tesla pay complaint filed by a tiny investor in the more shareholder-hospitable Delaware. Should SpaceX hit its expected $1.75tn valuation, a suing shareholder would need a stake of at least $52.5bn.” SpaceX also intends to protect Musk’s unilateral control over the company by raising the threshold for shareholder proposals, prohibiting most of its investors from forcing a vote at a shareholder meeting.\n The degree of Mr. Musk‘s power over SpaceX is especially concerning because of the conflicts that will inevitably arise between his interests and those of SpaceX’s shareholders and investors. The company‘s prospectus says as much: In its amended filing with the SEC, SpaceX admits that “[c]onflicts of interest could arise in the future between us, on the one hand, and Mr. Musk and entities owned by or affiliated with him, on the other hand, concerning among other things, business transactions, potential competitive activities or other business opportunities. In the normal course of business, we have engaged in a variety of transactions with some of these companies.” It continues: “Mr. Musk or his affiliates may become aware, from time to time, of certain business opportunities (such as acquisition opportunities or technological developments) and may direct such opportunities to other businesses in which they have invested, in which case [investors] may not become aware of or otherwise have the ability to pursue such opportunity.” The prospectus also details how Mr. Musk – a corporate director with fiduciary obligations to SpaceX – may also own assets in other companies that compete with SpaceX:\n Under our charter, Mr. Musk and his affiliates are not restricted from owning assets or engaging in businesses that compete directly or indirectly with us and will not have any duty to refrain from engaging, directly or indirectly, in the same or similar business activities or lines of business as us, including those business activities or lines of business deemed to be competing with us, or doing business with any of our customers or vendors. Moreover, we have in the past entered into, and may in the future enter into, transactions with entities affiliated with Mr. Musk. We may enter into such transactions in lieu of pursuing other opportunities that some other shareholders may prefer or that may prove to be more accretive than the opportunities we elect to pursue.\n These provisions of SpaceX‘s prospectus indicate that its IPO will be the biggest in history and may also have the most rigged corporate structure in history. Should the IPO be approved in its current form, the uniquely unchecked power Musk will have at SpaceX creates serious concerns for investors, markets, and the public at large. This IPO ultimately sets a dangerous precedent for future IPOs.\n Effects on Passive Investors and the Capital Markets\n The valuation and corporate governance concerns regarding SpaceX raise significant concerns about market integrity should its IPO‘s effectiveness be accelerated. For investors who pick and choose their specific investments, they at least are able to avoid investing in companies that engage in risky or unfair practices. But the SpaceX IPO creates a new concern: that major stock market indexes are being rigged in a way that would force millions of investors in passive index funds – a generally lower cost investment option that can be attractive to retail investors – to invest in SpaceX and face exposure to SpaceX’s significant risks with no choice in the matter. “Analysts estimate conservative forced buying of $15 billion to $30 billion across S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 and Russell 1000 trackers in the months after inclusion, with more aggressive float-weighted scenarios running far higher.”\n In addition to the above-average allocation of publicly traded stocks to retail investors, SpaceX‘s IPO will expose both passive and active investors to significant risk.\n Major stock indexes have a clear set of rules to determine whether and when to add new companies. These rules provide important investor protections for stock purchasers from the volatility and uncertainty of newly-public IPOs and allow market discovery to establish a fair price for public companies prior to index inclusion. The rules typically include seasoning and viability requirements. For example, the S&P 500 has required that companies be publicly traded for at least twelve months and have at least four quarters of positive income prior to index inclusion.\n But SpaceX has reportedly lobbied index providers to change the rules for inclusion on their indices. And the index providers have complied, with changes that would make it easier for large technology companies like SpaceX to be fast-tracked into passive investors‘ portfolios. In April, S&P Dow Jones announced it was considering changes to its rules to more easily enable “MegaCap” companies – the largest companies on the stock market – to be fast-tracked onto its indexes. For the S&P 500 alone, the firm was considering changes that included reducing the standard 12-month post-IPO waiting period to six months, eliminating the standard 10 percent float requirements, and exempting MegaCap companies from the financial viability criteria that all other companies are expected to meet in order to qualify. On June 4, 2026, the company announced it was foregoing the proposed changes, stating that “exceptions to the financial viability, seasoning, and IWF (investable weight factor) requirements should not be granted solely based on market capitalization.” Other than S&P Dow Jones, there has not been reporting of major indexes reversing changes and exceptions to long-standing rules that will be made for SpaceX. On May 1, 2026, the Nasdaq 100 implemented a new “fast entry” rule, which would allow companies in the top 40 by market capitalization to be eligible for inclusion on their seventh day of trading. FTSE Russell has followed suit. As the Wall Street Journal reports, the firm “changed its rules to make it easier for freshly minted megacaps to enter its U.S. indexes, opening the door for passive investors to quickly access shares in SpaceX and other high-profile listings.”\n A divergence among index providers‘ approaches to new public offerings may lead to different investor expectations around stock exposure. Additionally, as one analyst warned, these shifting policies “could create significant return dispersion [between] ’passive‘ indexes.”\n For investors in index funds that do bend the rules for SpaceX, the changes may lead to the forced purchase of billions of dollars of SpaceX stock without them having any say in the matter. Suddenly, American retirement savings or pensions may be tied to SpaceX‘s market capitalization. The stock’s ubiquity would artificially jack up its value, and SpaceX insiders – thanks to special rules allowing them to sell their shares sooner than usual – would be able to quickly sell off their shares, leaving retail investors holding the bag. What results could be a massive upward redistribution of wealth – even should SpaceX not be profitable. In short, these changes may enable a scheme of financial engineering that rigs America‘s capital markets in favor of Mr. Musk and his allies. As one Financial Times commentator put it, “Why on earth is [S&P Dow Jones Indices]... seemingly flirting with a rule-bending change to allow Elon Musk’s satellites-to-AI company a quick entry?” This is a question the SEC and the index providers should answer for the public.\n Changes benefitting SpaceX are not limited to indexes – they are also being made by large asset managers. On June 4, 2026, Fidelity Investments, a firm with $16.4 trillion in administered assets, “slashed its SpaceX IPO entry requirement from as much as $500,000 to just $2,000,” opening one of the biggest stock debuts in history to millions of retail investors. The risk from SpaceX‘s new IPO will therefore not be limited to large institutional investors, but also small individual investors as the IPO appears to lack many of the investor and market protections that are typically in place.\n As you consider the risks to investors from SpaceX‘s IPO, you must also factor that such risks will be immediately magnified by the inclusion of SpaceX stock on the major indexes and its availability to retail investors through major asset managers and investment advisors. This creates a scenario where current SpaceX shareholders – including senior Trump Administration officials – can enrich themselves while endangering American investors and the stability of our financial markets.\n Other Issues Warranting Delayed Effectiveness\n In addition to the multitude of concerns regarding SpaceX‘s financial disclosures, corporate governance, and efforts to rig stock market indexes in its favor, three other considerations warrant delaying the effectiveness of the company’s registration documents and demand thorough investigation from the SEC. First, there is the matter of potential Securities Act violations in the form of leaks regarding SpaceX‘s initial private filing. Well before SpaceX’s confidential SEC registration statement was filed on April 1, 2026, news reports carried information about the contents of the prospectus and generated investor interest. If these leaks were the result of a coordinated attempt by SpaceX to increase market interest in advance of an IPO, it might constitute a violation of Section 5 of the Securities Act, which prohibits “gun-jumping” – selling or publicizing shares before a registration statement has been provided. The law provides that “Unless a registration statement is in effect as to a security, it shall be unlawful for any person, directly or indirectly ... to make use of any means or instruments of transportation or communication in interstate commerce or of the mails to sell such security through the use or medium of any prospectus or otherwise.” Because of the extraordinary publicity surrounding SpaceX going public in the advance of any registration statement, the SEC should increase scrutiny of SpaceX‘s IPO tactics to ensure that the company has not violated Section 5.\n Second, there is the market confusion that has ensued from Mr. Musk making statements regarding the company on X – the social media platform he also owns, now under the xAI segment of SpaceX. It appears to some financial journalists that these statements materially contradict business information included in SpaceX‘s public filing. Whether or not the deviations are material, Mr. Musk is well-known to have a propensity to make public statements on X on whims that can instantly move markets. He is also known to cash out on large pay packages despite not meeting lofty business goals. If this pattern of behavior continues, it casts significant doubt on SpaceX’s credibility, and whether its IPO as filed sufficiently informs investors of the risks involved with Mr. Musk.\n Concerns regarding a Securities Act violation and contradictory statements made by Mr. Musk give enough reason for the SEC to delay the effectiveness of SpaceX‘s registration, and allow the markets a cooling-off period to more thoroughly evaluate the soundness of SpaceX’s IPO.\n Conclusion and Questions\n The SpaceX IPO appears to present a unique and precedent-setting risk for shareholders and future public company offerings. The company‘s accounting and financial reports contain troubling gaps, and are clouded by the massive and opaque xAI merger that occurred earlier this year. The company’s corporate governance structure vests unique power in its CEO and severely limits shareholders‘ rights. And the complicity of major stock indices in waiving old rules or creating new ones to allow SpaceX’s inclusion means that billions of dollars of passive investments will be forced into the company, putting retirees and ordinary investors at risk.\n In short, there are a multitude of unanswered material questions investors and the public have about SpaceX and what it is likely to do with the billions it seeks to raise. The SEC should not accelerate the effectiveness of SpaceX‘s registration without serious scrutiny of SpaceX’s financial statements, governance structure, and the impact it may have on retail investors, including through index funds.\n I request detailed answers to the following questions no later than June 23, 2026:\n How does the SEC intend to evaluate SpaceX‘s claims about its valuation on the basis of its claims regarding such things as space travel, multiplanetary habitation, and “extending the light of consciousness to the stars”? Please include specific information about: a. Any potential sources of overvaluation b. The discrepancy between SpaceX’s proffered valuation ($1.75 trillion) and its revenues ($19 billion per year)\n What is the SEC‘s plan to ensure investors receive clear and accurate disclosures despite complex accounting issues? Please provide specific information about: a. The valuation of the recent xAI acquisition b. The impact of co-founder departures c. The revenues and losses of each of SpaceX’s subsidiaries, including Launch, Starlink, and xAI, including industry-standard information on Starlink‘s subscriber base d. Any potential conflicts of interest among underwriting banks e. The rigor and independence of SpaceX’s auditors, including any potential conflicts of interest f. Any intended future mergers or major transactions that could have a material effect on the value of SpaceX stock\n Does the SEC believe that leaked information from the draft confidential filing has substantially increased market interest in SpaceX‘s initial public offering?\n Has the SEC considered delaying SpaceX‘s initial public offering, given reports that information from the draft confidential filing was leaked improperly and could be considered “gun-jumping”?\n How does the SEC plan to account for SpaceX‘s corporate structure, which vests nearly complete control in one person, in its evaluation of the IPO? Please provide specific information about: a. Its dual-class share structure b. Elon Musk’s control of voting shares c. The independence of board members, given their personal and business relationships with Musk, the controlling shareholder d. Potential conflicted transactions between SpaceX and other entities Musk controls\n What does the SEC plan to do to protect passive investors from the risks of SpaceX stock, including: a. Institutional investors (like pension funds), and b. Stockholders of passive index funds\n Will the SEC seek the legal basis for SpaceX‘s conclusion that the jurisdiction of state courts over Exchange Act claims is unsettled?\n Sincerely,\n [Signature]\n Elizabeth Warren\n Ranking Member\n Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs\n Footnotes:\n Bloomberg, “What to Know About the SpaceX IPO,” Anthony Hughes, May 29, 2026, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-29/what-to-know-about-the-spacex-ipo.\n Bloomberg, “Trump Officials Held Millions of Dollars of SpaceX Ahead of IPO,” Annie Massa, Sophie Alexander, and Bill Allison, June 3, 2026, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-03/spacex-ipo-poised-to-enrich-trump-officials-who-hold-millions-in-stock.\n Financial Times, “More takeaways from an S-1 for the ages,” Craig Coben, May 26, 2026.\n Bloomberg, “SpaceX‘s Capital Needs Are Out of This World” Chris Bryant, June 3, 2026, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-06-03/spacex-ipo-elon-musk-capital-needs-are-out-of-this-world.\n SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026039276/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm.\n New York Times, “The Numbers, and Questions, Behind Musk‘s Mega-Merger,” Andrew Ross Sorkin et al., February 3, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/business/dealbook/spacex-xai-merger.html.\n SpaceX, Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, May 20, 2026, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm.\n Reuters, “SpaceX files for IPO, sources say, offering investors stake in Musk‘s space ambitions,” Echo Wang, Manya Saini, and Joey Roulette, April 1, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-registers-take-rocket-maker-public-blockbuster-ipo-bloomberg-news-reports-2026-04-01/.\n Financial Times, “Inside SpaceX‘s audacious IPO plan,” Ryan McMorrow et al., May 20, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/a59be3cf-eee2-4b10-9c86-b6e4dc0dbbdb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.\n 15 U.S.C. § 77h; 17 C.F.R. § 230.461(b).\n U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, “Filing Review Process,” Sept. 27, 2019.\n Financial Times, “How to make sense of SpaceX‘s nonsensical valuation,” May 21, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/58fcca43-9195-49e2-b1c3-0e3bfb0147cd?syn-25a6b1a6=1.\n CNBC, “SpaceX is worth less than half of its $1.75 trillion IPO target, Morningstar says,” Joseph Wilkins, June 3, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/morningstar-spacex-ipo-target-price-nasdaq.html.\n Financial Times, “How to make sense of SpaceX‘s nonsensical valuation,” May 21, 2026.\n Id.\n Bloomberg, “What to Know About the SpaceX IPO,” Anthony Hughes, May 29, 2026.\n Fortune, “Top analyst has harsh words for SpaceX debut: ‘We recommend that investors avoid this IPO’,” Shawn Tully, May 29, 2026, https://fortune.com/2026/05/29/spacex-ipo-should-i-buy-bear-case-david-trainer/.\n New York Times, “How SpaceX Is Structured to Favor Elon Musk,” Ryan Mac, May 26, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/26/technology/spacex-elon-musk-pay-board-governance.html.\n Financial Times, “How to make sense of SpaceX‘s nonsensical valuation,” May 21, 2026.\n The Motley Fool, “Honestly, the SpaceX Prospectus Is Far Worse Than I Imagined,” Sean Williams, May 26, 2026, https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/05/26/the-spacex-prospectus-is-far-worse-than-i-imagined/.\n Fortune, “Top analyst has harsh words for SpaceX debut: ‘We recommend that investors avoid this IPO’,” Shawn Tully, May 29, 2026.\n Bloomberg, “Musk‘s Moonshot Merger,” Matt Levine, February 3, 2026.\n Forbes, “Elon Musk,” https://www.forbes.com/profile/elon-musk/.\n Fortune, “Elon Musk‘s SpaceX buys xAI in stunning deal valued at $1.25 trillion ahead of looming IPO,” Amanda Gerut, February 2, 2026, https://fortune.com/2026/02/02/elon-musk-spacex-xai-ipo-trillion/.\n Forbes, “Could Musk Merge SpaceX And Tesla? Here‘s What Analysts—And Betting Markets—Say,” Ty Roush, May 27, 2026, https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2026/05/27/could-musk-merge-spacex-and-tesla-heres-what-analysts-and-betting-markets-say/; CNBC, “Will Elon Musk eventually merge SpaceX with Tesla? Speculation is building,” Ananya Chetia, May 21, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/will-elon-musk-eventually-merge-spacex-with-tesla-speculation-builds.html.\n Yahoo! Finance, “SpaceX-Tesla Merger Could Trigger Elon Musk‘s $1 Trillion Pay Package: Report,” Badar Shaikh, June 2, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-tesla-merger-could-trigger-123106691.html.\n SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, p. 57.\n Reuters, “The SpaceX IPO and the lost battle for shareholder rights,” Ross Kerber, May 13, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/spacex-ipo-lost-battle-shareholder-rights-rosskerber-2026-05-13/.\n Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance, “Even Musk Admirers Should Be Troubled by SpaceX‘s Governance,” Lucian Bebchuk and Kobi Kastiel, June 2, 2026, https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2026/06/02/even-musk-admirers-should-be-troubled-by-spacexs-governance/.\n SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, p. 2.\n Id.\n Financial Times, “Inside SpaceX‘s audacious IPO plan,” Ryan McMorrow et al., May 20, 2026.\n Financial Times, Editorial, “To infinity and beyond, with the SpaceX IPO,” May 22, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/0e5ab16c-957e-44d6-aa16-fe23412ef6df?syn-25a6b1a6=1.\n New York Times, “How SpaceX Is Structured to Favor Elon Musk,” Ryan Mac, May 26, 2026.\n Wall Street Journal, “The Money and Drugs That Tie Elon Musk to Some Tesla Directors,” Kirsten Grind et al., February 3, 2024, https://www.wsj.com/tech/elon-musk-tesla-money-drugs-board-61af9ac4.\n “XONA Space Systems — Powerful Precise GPS,” Steve Jurvetson, May 8, 2024, https://steve.blog/2024/05/08/xona-space-systems-powerful-precise-gps/; PR Newswire, “Xona Raises $92M to Rebuild Satellite Navigation for a New Era,” June 26, 2025, https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/xona-raises-92m-to-rebuild-satellite-navigation-for-a-new-era-302491586.html; PC Magazine, “SpaceX to FCC: We Can Supply a GPS Alternative Through Starlink,” Michael Kan, May 14, 2025, https://www.pcmag.com/news/spacex-to-fcc-we-can-supply-a-gps-alternative-through-starlink.\n 15 U.S.C. § 19.\n SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, pp. 63-64.\n New York Times, “How SpaceX Is Structured to Favor Elon Musk,” Ryan Mac, May 26, 2026; Capital Forum, “Transcript of Conference Call on Forced Arbitration and Corporate Power in the Courts with Brendan Ballou,” May 12, 2026, https://thecapitolforum.com/resource/transcript-of-conference-call-on-forced-arbitration-and-corporate-power-in-the-courts-with-brendan-ballou/.\n 15 U.S.C. § 78aa (giving federal courts exclusive jurisdiction over claims brought under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934).\n SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, p. 63.\n U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, “Sunshine Act Notice,” September 10, 2025, https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/meetings-events/sunshine-act-notice-open-meeting-091725.\n Financial Times, “SpaceX to drive a Cybertruck through corporate governance norms,” Sujeet Indap, May 26, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/7f34d58b-da81-4778-bca1-7aa89b08afca?syn-25a6b1a6=1.\n Reuters, “The SpaceX IPO and the lost battle for shareholder rights,” Ross Kerber, May 13, 2026; TradingKey, “SpaceX IPO: Musk Controls 85.1% Voting Power, Shareholders Waive Jury Trials and Class Actions,” Jay Qian, May 21, 2026, https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261919584-elonmusk-spacex-ipo-tradingkey.\n SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, p. 57.\n Id.\n Id.\n Social Science Research Network, “The Growth and Consequences of Index Investing,” Anne-Florence Allard et al., January 12, 2026, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6056574.\n Yahoo! Finance, “SpaceX IPO could hit popular index funds — and your 401(k) — in as little as 5 trading days as indexes relax their rules,” Rudro Chakrabarti, June 1, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-ipo-could-hit-popular-101500534.html.\n Id.\n Bloomberg, “Index Funds Can‘t Say No to SpaceX,” Matt Levine, May 26, 2026, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-05-26/index-funds-can-t-say-no-to-spacex; Financial Times, “Et tu, S&P 500?,” March 26, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/59adbe42-ca30-47f3-9cda-5415945e9368.\n Business Insider, “Here‘s when SpaceX could show up in major indexes and popular ETFs after its IPO,” Naomi Buchanan, May 24, 2026, https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-ipo-index-investing-etfs-spy-vti-qqq-spcx-stock-2026-5; CNBC, “Elon Musk’s SpaceX weighs Nasdaq listing after seeking early index entry, Reuters sources say,” March 10, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/10/elon-musks-spacex-weighs-nasdaq-listing-after-seeking-early-index-entry.html.\n Yahoo! Finance, “Elon Musk‘s SpaceX Could Be Fast-Tracked Into S&P 500 After IPO Under Proposed Rule Changes,” Badir Shaikh, May 2, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/elon-musks-spacex-could-fast-180121306.html.\n Bloomberg, “Index Funds Can‘t Say No to SpaceX,” Matt Levine, May 26, 2026.\n Id.\n S&P Dow Jones Indices, “S&P Dow Jones Indices Consultation on Treatment of MegaCap Companies,” press release, April 30, 2026, https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20260430-1483123/1483123_spdji-us-indices-megacaps-consult-20260430.pdf.\n Yahoo! Finance, “SpaceX Faces Delay to S&P 500 Inclusion After Index Provider Keeps Existing Criteria (SPCX),” Fiona Craig, June 5, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-faces-delay-p-500-100109864.html.\n Yahoo! Finance, “Buckle Up, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Index Fund Investors. SpaceX Could Soon Become 1 of Your Largest Positions,” Daniel Foelber, May 31, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/buckle-p-500-nasdaq-index-162000546.html.\n FTSE Russell, “Consultation for the Russell US Equity Indexes on the timing of IPOs and the treatment of companies with a high free float market capitalization,” February 2026.\n Wall Street Journal, “FTSE Russell Latest to Make U.S. Index Inclusion Easier Ahead of SpaceX IPO,” Joe Stonor, May 27, 2026, https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/ftse-russell-latest-to-make-u-s-index-inclusion-easier-ahead-of-spacex-ipo-35157adf.\n Post on X by Eric Balchunas, June 4, 2026, https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/2062647912065044532?s=20.\n CNBC, “SpaceX insiders will get to sell shares earlier than usual after the IPO,” Leslie Picker, May 21, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/spacex-insiders-will-get-to-sell-shares-earlier-than-usual-after-the-ipo.html.\n Financial Times, “Et tu, S&P 500?,” Robin Wigglesworth, March 26, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/59adbe42-ca30-47f3-9cda-5415945e9368.\n RIABiz, “Fidelity soars to $16.4 trillion of assets, a 16% jump of $2.3 trillion for 12 months, and widens gap on BlackRock and Schwab,” Brooke Southall, August 14, 2025, https://riabiz.com/a/2025/8/15/fidelity-soars-to-164-trillion-of-assets-a-16-jump-of-23-trillion-for-12-months-and-widens-gap-on-blackrock-and-schwab.\n Yahoo! Finance, “Fidelity Cuts SpaceX IPO Eligibility by 99%, But 5 Rules Could Cost You Access,” Lockridge Okoth, June 4, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/fidelity-cuts-spacex-ipo-eligibility-183319186.html.\n Bloomberg, “Trump Officials Held Millions of Dollars of SpaceX Ahead of IPO,” Annie Massa, Sophie Alexander, and Bill Allison, June 3, 2026.\n New York Times, “SpaceX Files to Go Public, Setting Stage for Huge I.P.O.,” Ryan Mac, Lauren Hirsch, and Maureen Farrell, April 1, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/technology/spacex-ipo-elon-musk.html.\n See, e.g., Reuters, “Exclusive: Elon Musk‘s SpaceX weighs Nasdaq listing after seeking early index entry, sources say,” Anirban Sen and Echo Wang, March 10, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/elon-musks-spacex-weighs-nasdaq-listing-after-seeking-early-index-entry-sources-2026-03-10/; Reuters, “Exclusive: Musk rewrites IPO playbook with large slice of SpaceX stock for retail investors, source says,” Echo Wang, Milana Vinn, and Sabrina Valle, March 26, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/musk-rewrites-ipo-playbook-with-large-slice-spacex-stock-retail-investors-source-2026-03-26/.\n Cornell Law School Legal Information Institute, “Gun Jumping,” https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/gun_jumping.\n 15 U.S.C. § 77e; 17 C.F.R. § 230.135.\n Forbes, “Elon Musk‘s xAI Buys X — Here’s What That Means For You,” Kate O‘Flaherty, March 31, 2025, https://www.forbes.com/sites/kateoflahertyuk/2025/03/31/elon-musks-xai-buys-x-heres-what-that-means-for-you/.\n CNBC, “SpaceX skeptics have added reason for concern after Musk comments diverge from IPO filing,” Lora Kolodny, May 29, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/spacex-skeptics-concerned-as-musk-comments-diverge-from-ipo-filing.html.\n CNBC, “Elon Musk‘s tweets are moving markets — and some investors are worried,” Sam Shead, January 29, 2021.\n New York Times, “How SpaceX Is Structured to Favor Elon Musk,” Ryan Mac, May 26, 2026.\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑:石秀珍 SF183","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TQQY":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,".IXIC":1.82,"TSLA":1.85,"NDX":1.82,"TESL":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"07366":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QQQA":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"JEPQ":0.6,"QQQJ":0.6,"TECS":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"09766":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"QQQY":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"IYW":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"QDTE":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"09366":0.6,"ONEQ":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"HXC":1.82,"QQQE":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"QYLG":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"GIS":1.84,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":39,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":374303728341408,"gmtCreate":1732423210251,"gmtModify":1732423212663,"author":{"id":"3550888125507139","authorId":"3550888125507139","name":"FunnyWong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3550888125507139","authorIdStr":"3550888125507139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"应该问一下 AI的各种应用以及大模型在美国如何变现 什么时候可以变现,而不是年复一年的说今年技术又进步了多少倍[贱笑] [吃瓜] ","listText":"应该问一下 AI的各种应用以及大模型在美国如何变现 什么时候可以变现,而不是年复一年的说今年技术又进步了多少倍[贱笑] [吃瓜] ","text":"应该问一下 AI的各种应用以及大模型在美国如何变现 什么时候可以变现,而不是年复一年的说今年技术又进步了多少倍[贱笑] [吃瓜]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374303728341408","repostId":"1173068564","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1173068564","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1732409131,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173068564?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-11-24 08:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"黄仁勋最新万字对话:英伟达十年将计算边际成本降低100万倍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173068564","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"11月23日,在香港科技大学周六举行的博士学位授予仪式上,英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋被授予工程学荣誉博士学位。今晨醒来,我第一时间询问妻子英伟达是否挺住了。若以此速度持续10年,计算需求的增长将是一个惊人的数字——高达100万倍。这也正是我向他人阐释英伟达股价在过去10年间上涨300倍原因时的重要论据。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>11月23日,在香港科技大学周六举行的博士学位授予仪式上,英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋被授予工程学荣誉博士学位。授予仪式结束后,黄仁勋与香港科技大学校董会主席沈向洋对话,探讨关于技术、领导力和创业的故事。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2cba27869c3918be054b7b714a73a5\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"616\"/></p><p><strong>以下为对话全文:</strong></p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>昨晚我辗转难眠,其中一个极为关键的原因在于,我亟欲向诸位引荐这位宇宙间最卓越的首席执行官。但我心中也暗自为贵公司担忧,毕竟昨晚苹果股价上扬,而英伟达的表现却略显逊色。我已迫不及待想要知晓股市收盘的结果!今晨醒来,我第一时间询问妻子英伟达是否挺住了。你在人工智能领域领航已久,能否再谈谈对人工智能的看法,以及这项技术,或是AGI(通用人工智能)可能带来的影响?</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>正如你所了解的,当人工智能网络能够学习并掌握从字节、语言、图像到蛋白质序列等多种数据的理解时,一场变革性、开创性的能力便应运而生了。我们突然间拥有了能够理解单词内涵的计算机。得益于生成式AI,信息得以在不同模式间自由转换,比如从文本到图像、从蛋白质到文本、从文本到蛋白质,乃至从文本到化学品等。这一原本作为函数逼近器(Function Approximator,数学领域的重要概念,用于多个领域)及语言翻译器而存在的工具,如今所面对的问题是,我们如何能充分利用它?你见证了全球范围内创业公司如雨后春笋般涌现,它们结合了这些不同的模型与能力,展现出无限可能。</p><p>因此,我认为真正令人惊叹的突破在于,我们现在能够理解信息的真正意义。这意味着,作为数字生物学家,你能理解所观数据的含义,从而于万千数据中精准捕捉到关键信息;作为英伟达的芯片设计师、系统设计师,或是农业技术人员、气候科学家、能源领域的研究者,在探寻新材料的过程中,这无疑是开创性的壮举。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>如今,通用翻译器的概念已然成形,它赋予我们理解世间万物的能力。许多人都听你描述过人工智能对社会的惊人影响。那些观点深深触动了我,甚至在某些方面让我感到震撼。回顾历史,农业革命让我们生产出了更多的食物,工业革命则让我们的钢铁产量大幅提升。进入信息技术时代,信息的数量更是爆炸式增长。而今,在这个智能时代,英伟达与人工智能正携手“制造”智能。你能进一步阐述为何这项工作如此重要吗?</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>从计算机科学的视角来看,我们重新发明了整个堆栈。这意味着,我们过去开发软件的方式已经发生了根本性的变化。提及计算机科学,软件开发自然是不可或缺的一环,它是如何实现的,这至关重要。</p><p>以往,我们依靠手工编写软件,凭借想象力和创造力构思功能、设计算法,然后将其转化为代码,输入电脑。从Fortran到Pascal,再到C语言和C++,这些编程语言让我们得以用代码来表达创意。代码在CPU上运行得很好,我们向计算机输入数据,询问它从中发现了什么函数,通过观察我们提供的数据,计算机能够识别出其中的模式和关系。</p><p>然而,现在的情况已经有所不同,我们不再依赖于传统的代码编写方式,而是转向了机器学习和机器生成。这不再是简单的软件问题,而是涉及到了机器学习,它生成神经网络,并在GPU上进行处理。这一转变,从编码到机器学习,从CPU到GPU,标志着一个全新的时代的到来。</p><p>而且,由于GPU的功能异常强大,我们现在能够开发的软件类型堪称非凡,而在这一强大基础之上,则是人工智能的蓬勃发展。这正是其出现所带来的变革,计算机科学因此发生了巨大变化。现在,我们需要思考的是,这样的变化将如何影响我们的行业?我们都在竞相利用机器学习去探索新的人工智能领域。那么,究竟什么是人工智能呢?这其实是一个大家耳熟能详的概念,即认知自动化和解决问题自动化。解决问题的自动化可以归结为三个核心概念:观察并感知环境,理解并推理环境,然后提出并执行计划。</p><p>例如,在自动驾驶汽车中,车辆可以感知周围环境,推理自身及周围车辆的位置,最后规划出行驶路线。这其实就是一种数字司机的表现形式。同样地,在医疗领域,我们可以观察CT扫描图像,理解并推理出图像中的信息,如果发现异常,可能代表着肿瘤的存在,然后我们可以标记出来并告知放射科医生。此时,我们就扮演了数字放射科医生的角色。<strong>在我们所做的几乎每一件事情中,都可以找到与人工智能相关的应用,它们能够出色地完成特定的任务。</strong></p><p>如果我们拥有足够多的数字智能体,并且这些智能体能够与产生这些数字信息的计算机进行交互,那么这就构成了数字人工智能。然而,目前我们所有人对数据中心的总体消耗,虽然看似庞大,但数据中心主要是在生产一种名为“Token”的东西,而并非真正的数字智能。</p><p>我可以解释一下这两者之间的区别。300年前,通用电气公司和西屋电气公司发明了一种新型仪器——发电机,并最终演化为交流发电机。他们非常明智地创造了一种“消费者”来消费他们所生产的电力,这些“消费者”包括灯泡、烤面包机等电器设备。当然,他们还创造了各种各样的数码设备或电器,这些设备都需要消耗电力。</p><p>现在,来看看我们正在做的事情。我们正在创建Copilots、ChatGPT等智能工具,这些都是我们创造出的不同类型的智能“消费者”,它们实际上就像灯泡和烤面包机一样,是消耗能量的设备。但想象一下,那些令人惊叹的、我们所有人都会使用的智能设备,它们将连接到一个新的工厂。这个工厂曾经是交流电发电厂,但现在,新的工厂将是数字智能工厂。</p><p>从工业的角度来看,我们实际上正在创造一个新的产业,这个产业在吸收能量并产生数字智能,而这些数字智能可以被应用于各种不同的场景。我们相信,这个数字智能产业的消耗量将是巨大的,而这个行业在以前是不存在的,就像交流电发电行业在以前也不存在一样。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>你为我们勾勒了一幅充满希望的光明未来,而这在很大程度上得益于你和英伟达在过去十多年间对该领域的卓越贡献。摩尔定律在业界一直备受瞩目,而近年来,“黄氏定律”逐渐为人们所熟悉。在早期的计算机行业中,英特尔提出的摩尔定律曾预言计算能力每18个月翻倍。然而,在过去10到12年间,特别是在你的引领下,计算能力的增长速度甚至超越了这一预测,实现了每年翻倍甚至更高速度的增长。</p><p>从消费端观察,大语言模型在过去12年里的计算需求每年都以四倍以上的速度激增。若以此速度持续10年,计算需求的增长将是一个惊人的数字——高达100万倍。这也正是我向他人阐释英伟达股价在过去10年间上涨300倍原因时的重要论据。考虑到计算需求的这一巨大增长,英伟达的股价或许并不显得高昂。那么,当你运用你的“水晶球”预测未来时,你认为在接下来的10年里,我们是否还会见证计算需求再次实现100万倍的增长呢?</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>摩尔定律依赖于两个核心概念:一是超大规模集成电路(VLSI)的设计原理,它是受到我、加州理工大学的卡弗·米德教授(Carver Mead)以及林恩·康威教授 (Lynn Conway )的著作启发的,这些著作激励了整整一代人;二是随着晶体管尺寸的不断缩小,我们得以每隔一段时间就将半导体的性能提升一倍,大约每一年半就能实现一次性能翻倍,因此每五年性能提升可达10倍,每十年更是能提升100倍。</p><p>我们正身处一个趋势之中:神经网络的规模越大,用于训练的数据量越多,AI似乎就表现得越智能。这一经验法则与摩尔定律有着异曲同工之妙,我们不妨称之为“规模定律(Scaling Law)”,且这一定律似乎仍在持续发挥作用。然而,我们也清醒地认识到,仅仅依靠预训练——即利用全球范围内的海量数据自动挖掘知识——是远远不够的。正如大学毕业是一个至关重要的里程碑,但它绝不是终点。接下来,还有后训练阶段,也就是深入钻研某一特定技能,这要求强化学习、人类反馈、AI反馈、合成数据生成以及多路径学习等多种技巧的综合运用。简而言之,后训练就是选定一个特定领域,并致力于对其进行深度钻研。这就像当我们步入职业生涯后,会进行大量的专业学习和实践。</p><p>而在这之后,我们最终会迎来所谓的“思考”阶段,也就是所谓的测试时间计算。有些事情你一眼就能看出答案,而有些则需要我们将其拆解成多个步骤,并从第一性原理出发,逐一寻找解决方案。这可能需要我们进行多次迭代,模拟各种可能的结果,因为并非所有答案都是可预测的。因此,我们称之为思考,且思考的时间越长,答案的质量往往越高。而大量的计算资源将助力我们产出更高质量的答案。</p><p>虽然今天的答案已是我们所能提供的最佳结果,但我们仍在寻求一个临界点,即所得到的答案不再局限于我们当前所能提供的最佳水平。在这一点上,你需要判断答案是否真实可靠、是否有意义且明智。我们必须达到这样一个境界,即所得到的答案在很大程度上是值得信赖的。我认为,这还需要数年的时间才能实现。</p><p>与此同时,我们仍需不断提升计算能力。正如你之前所提到的,过去十年里,我们将计算性能提升了100万倍。而英伟达的贡献在于,我们将计算的边际成本降低了同样的幅度。想象一下,如果生活中有你所依赖的事物,如电力或其他任何选择,当它的成本降低了100万倍时,你的行为习惯将会发生根本性的变化。</p><p>对于计算,我们的看法也已经发生了翻天覆地的变化,而这正是英伟达有史以来最伟大的成就之一。我们利用机器去学习海量的数据,这是研究人员无法单独完成的任务,而这正是机器学习能够取得成功的关键所在。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>我迫切希望听听你的看法,香港在当前机遇中应如何作为。现在,一个特别令人兴奋的事情是“AI for Science”,而你对此一直抱有极大的热情。香港科技大学已经投入了大量的计算基础设施和GPU资源,我们特别重视推动各院系之间的合作,如物理与计算机科学、材料科学与计算机科学、生物学与计算机科学等领域的交叉融合。你之前也深入探讨了生物学的未来。另外,值得一提的是,香港政府已决定建立第三所医学院,而香港科技大学是首个提交这个提案的高校。那么,对于校长、我本人以及整个大学而言,你有什么建议?</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>首先,我在2018年的超算大会上曾介绍过人工智能,但当时遭遇了诸多质疑。原因在于,那时的人工智能更像是一个“黑箱”。诚然,时至今日,它依然在一定程度上保持着“黑箱”的特性,但已比过去更加透明。</p><p>比如,你我皆为“黑箱”,但现在我们可以向AI发问:“你为何提出这样的建议?”或者“请逐步阐述你得出这一结论的过程。”通过此类提问,AI正变得愈发透明和易于解释。因为我们可以借助问题来探究其思考过程,正如教授们通过提问来洞察学生的思考过程一样。重要的不仅仅是获取答案,更在于答案的合理性以及是否基于第一性原理。这在2018年是无法做到的。</p><p>其次,AI目前尚未能从第一性原理中直接得出答案,它是通过观察数据来学习和得出结论的。因此,它并非模拟第一性原理的求解器,而是在模仿智能、模仿物理。那么,这种模仿对科学而言是否有价值呢?我认为,其价值无可估量。因为在众多科学领域,我们虽然理解第一性原理,如薛定谔方程、麦克斯韦方程等,但面对大型系统时,我们却难以模拟和理解。因此,我们无法仅凭第一性原理进行求解,这在计算上存在局限,甚至是不可能的。然而,我们可以利用AI,训练它理解这些物理原理,并借助其模拟大型系统,从而帮助我们理解这些系统。</p><p>那么,这种应用具体在哪些方面能够发挥作用呢?首先,人体生物学的尺度从纳米级开始,时间尺度则跨越纳秒至年。在如此宽广的尺度和时间跨度上,使用传统求解器是根本无法实现的。现在的问题是,我们能否利用AI来模拟人体生物学,以便更深入地理解这些极其复杂的多尺度系统?</p><p>这样,我们或许可以称之为创建了一个人体生物学的数字孪生体。这正是我们寄予厚望之处。如今,我们或许已拥有了计算机科学技术,使数字生物学家、气候科学家以及处理异常庞大复杂问题的科学家们能够首次真正理解物理系统。这是我的期望,希望在这一交叉领域能够实现这一愿景。</p><p>提及你们的医学院项目,对于香港科技大学而言,一所与众不同的医学院即将在这里诞生,尽管这所大学的传统专业领域是技术、计算机科学和人工智能。这与世界上绝大多数医学院截然不同,它们大多是在成为医学院后,再尝试引入人工智能和技术,而这通常会面临人们对其技术的怀疑和不信任。然而,你们却有机会从头开始,创建一个从一开始就与技术紧密相连的机构,并在这里推动技术的不断发展。这里的人们深知技术的局限性与潜力。我认为,这是一个千载难逢的机遇,希望你们能够紧紧抓住。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>我们当然会采纳你的建议。香港科技大学一直以来在技术和创新方面有着卓越的表现,不断推动计算机科学、工程、生物学等领域的前沿发展。因此,作为香港第三所医学院,我们坚信自己能够走出一条与众不同的道路,将传统的医学培训与我们在技术研究方面的优势相结合。我确信,未来我们还会向你寻求更多的建议。不过,我想稍微改变一下话题,谈谈领导力。你是硅谷任期最长的CEO之一,可能已经远超其他人,担任英伟达CEO的时间已经长达30年或31年之久了吧?</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>差不多32年了!</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>但你似乎从未感到疲倦。</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>不,我其实感到非常累。今天早上到这里的时候,我还说超级累。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>但你依然在不断前行。因此,我们当然想从你身上学到一些领导大型组织的经验。你是如何领导英伟达这样一个庞大组织的?它拥有数万名员工、惊人的收入和大量的客户,覆盖面极广。你是如何做到以如此惊人的效率领导这样一个大型组织的?</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>今天我想说,我感到非常惊讶。通常情况下,你只会看到计算生物学家或者商科学生,但今天我们看到的计算生物学家同时也是商科学生,这真是太棒了。我从未上过任何商业课程,也从未写过商业计划书,我完全不知道如何下手。我依赖于你们所有人来给予我帮助。</p><p>我要告诉你们的是,首先你们要尽可能多地去学习,而我也一直在不断学习。其次,关于你们想全身心投入并视为一生事业的任何事情,最重要的是热爱。<strong>将你所做的任何事情都视为你毕生的事业,而不是你的工作,我认为这种思维方式会在你的心中产生很大的不同。英伟达就是我的事业。</strong></p><p>如果你想成为一家公司的CEO,你有很多东西要学,你必须不断地重塑自己。世界一直在变化,你的公司和技术也一直在变化。你今天所知道的一切,将来都会有用,但还远远不够,所以我基本上每天都在学习。我在乘飞机过来的路上,也在看YouTube,在和我的AI聊天。我找了一个人工智能做导师,问很多问题。AI会给我一个答案,我会问它为什么给出这个答案,让它一步步地告诉我答案,以这种方式向我解释,将这种推理应用到其他事情上,给我一些类比。有很多不同的学习方法,我利用AI。所以,有很多学习方法,但我要强调的是,你要不断学习。</p><p>关于担任CEO与领导者的心得,我总结了以下几点:</p><p>首先,身为CEO及领导者,你无需扮演无所不知的全能角色。<strong>你必须坚定地相信自己所追求的目标,但这并不等同于你必须对每个细微之处都了如指掌。</strong>信心与确定性是两个截然不同的概念。在追求目标的过程中,你可以满怀信心地前进,同时开放心态,欣然接受并拥抱其中的不确定性。这种不确定性实际上为你提供了持续学习、不断成长的空间。因此,要学会从不确定性中汲取力量,视其为推动你前行的朋友而非敌人。</p><p>其次,领导者确实需要展现出坚韧不拔的一面,因为周围有许多人都在仰仗你的力量,并从你的坚定中汲取勇气。然而,<strong>坚韧并不意味着你必须时刻隐藏自己的脆弱。</strong>在需要帮助时,不妨勇敢地寻求他人的支持。我始终秉持这一理念,无数次地向他人坦诚求助。脆弱并非软弱的表现,不确定性也不是信心的缺失。在这个复杂多变的世界中,你既可以坚强自信地面对挑战,也可以诚实地接纳自己的脆弱和不确定性。</p><p>再者,作为领导者,你的决策应始终围绕使命展开,以他人的福祉和成功为考量。只有当你的决策真正有利于他人时,你才能赢得他们的信任与尊重。无论是公司内部员工、合作伙伴,还是我们服务的整个生态体系,我始终在思考如何促进他们的成功,如何保障他们的利益。在决策过程中,我总是以他人的最佳利益为出发点,以此作为我们行动的指南。我认为这些可能很有帮助。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>关于团队合作,我有个很感兴趣的问题想请教。你有60位直接下属需要向你汇报工作,那么你的员工会议是如何进行的?你是如何有效地管理这么多高层管理人员的?这似乎体现了你独特的领导风格。</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:关键在于保持透明度。</strong>我会在大家面前明确地阐述我们的理由、目标以及我们需要采取的行动,我们一起协作制定策略。无论是什么样的策略,每个人都会在同一时间听到。因为他们都一起参与了制定计划,所以当公司要决定什么事情时,都是大家一起商量好的,不是我一个人说了算,也不是我告诉他们要怎么做。</p><p>我们共同讨论,共同得出结论。我的职责就是确保每个人都接收到了同样的信息。我通常是最后一个发言的人,基于我们的讨论结果,来明确方向和优先级。如果存在任何不明确的地方,我会消除这些疑虑。一旦我们达成共识,都理解了策略,我就会基于大家都是成年人的事实来推进工作。我之前提到的关于我的行为准则——不断学习、自信但拥抱不确定性——如果我不清楚,或者他们不清楚某些事情,我希望他们能够主动说出来。如果他们需要帮助,我希望他们能够向我们寻求支持。在这里,没有人会独自面对失败。</p><p>然后,当其他人看到我的行为模式——作为CEO、作为领导者,我可以展现脆弱的一面,我可以寻求帮助,我可以承认不确定性,我可以犯错——他们就会明白他们同样可以这样做。我所期望的就是,如果他们需要帮助,就勇敢地说出来。但除此之外,我的团队有60个人,他们都是各自领域的顶尖人才。在大多数情况下,他们并不需要我的帮助。</p><p>沈向洋:我必须说,你的管理方法确实成效显著。你在学位授予仪式上的演讲让我记忆犹新,你提及了香港科技大学的诸多数据,特别是校友创立的初创公司数量,以及我们学校培育出的独角兽企业和上市企业数量。这所大学确实以孕育新企业家和公司而著称。然而,即便在这样的环境下,我们今天仍有许多硕士生在此深造。你和你的团队在非常年轻的时候便创立了自己的公司,并取得了今天这样令人瞩目的成功。那么,对于我们的学生和教职员工,你有什么建议呢?他们应该在何时、为何开启自己的事业?除了你曾经向妻子许下在30岁前创办公司的那个,你还有其他的建议吗?</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>那确实是我用来搭讪的小手段,并非真有其意。我16岁上大学,17岁时遇到了我的妻子,那时她19岁。作为班上最小的学生,面对250名同学中只有三个女孩的情况,而我又显得像个孩子,所以必须学会一些吸引注意的技巧。我走向她,告诉她,虽然我看起来年轻,但她对我的第一印象肯定是我很聪明。于是,我鼓起勇气说:“你想看看我的作业吗?”</p><p>接着,我向她许下了一个承诺,我说:“如果你每个星期天都和我一起做作业,我保证你会得到全优的成绩。”就这样,每个星期天我们都能约会,并且一整天都在一起学习。为了让她最终愿意嫁给我,我还告诉她,到我30岁的时候——那时我才20岁——我会成为CEO。我完全不知道自己当时在说些什么。后来,我们真的结婚了。所以,这就是我的全部建议,带着一点幽默和真诚。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>我从学生那里收集到一个问题,他想知道:他在学校表现优异,但需要全神贯注于学习。他读了你的爱情故事后,担心如果自己也花时间谈恋爱,会不会影响到学业。</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>我的建议是,绝对不会。但前提是,你必须保持优异的成绩。她(我的妻子)从未发现过这个小秘密,但我一直想让她觉得我很聪明。所以,在她来之前,我就先把作业完成了。等到她来的时候,我已经知道了所有的答案。她可能一直以为我是个天才,而且整整四年都是这样认为的。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>有一位华盛顿大学教授在几年前发表了一个观点,他认为在深度学习这场革命中,像麻省理工学院(MIT)这样的顶尖美国大学其实并没有做出太多开创性的贡献。当然,他并非仅指MIT,而是指出整个美国顶尖大学在过去十年里的贡献相对有限。相反,我们看到像微软、OpenAI、谷歌的DeepMind这样的顶尖公司取得了惊人的成果,其中一个重要原因就是它们拥有强大的计算能力。那么,面对这样的情况,我们应该如何应对?是不是应该考虑加入英伟达,或者与英伟达展开合作?作为我们的新盟友,你能给我们一些建议或者帮助吗?</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>你提到的这个问题确实触及了大学当前面临的一个严峻的结构性挑战。我们都知道,如果没有机器学习,我们就无法像今天这样推动科学研究的快速发展。而机器学习又离不开强大的计算支持。这就像研究宇宙离不开射电望远镜,研究基本粒子离不开粒子加速器一样。没有这些工具,我们就无法深入探索未知领域。而今天的“科学仪器”就是AI超级计算机。</p><p>大学面临的一个结构性问题是,研究人员通常都是自己筹集资金,一旦资金到手,他们就不太愿意与他人分享资源。但机器学习有个特点,就是需要这些高性能计算机在某些时间段内被充分利用,而不是一直闲置。没有人会一直占用所有资源,但每个人在某个时候都需要巨大的计算能力。那么,大学应该如何应对这个挑战呢?我认为,大学应该成为基础设施建设的引领者,通过集中资源来推动全校的研究发展。但这在像斯坦福或哈佛这样的顶尖大学中实施起来非常困难,因为这些大学的计算机科学研究人员通常能筹集到大量资金,而其他领域的研究人员则相对困难。</p><p>那么,现在的解决办法是什么呢?我认为,大学若能为全校构建基础设施,将能有效引领这一领域的变革,并产生深远影响。然而,这确实是大学当前所面临的一个结构性难题。正因如此,众多研究人员才会选择前往我们公司、谷歌、微软等企业实习或进行研究,因为我们能够提供访问先进基础设施的机会。随后,他们在返回各自大学时,会希望我们能够保持其研究的活跃性,以便他们继续推进工作。此外,还有许多教授,包括客座教授,会在从事教学工作的同时,兼顾研究工作。我们公司就聘请了几位这样的教授。因此,虽然解决问题的方法多种多样,但最为根本的,还是大学需要重新审视并优化其研究资助体系。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>我有一个颇具挑战性的问题想请教你。一方面,我们欣喜地看到计算能力的显著提升以及价格的下降,这无疑是个好消息。但另一方面,你们的GPU会消耗大量能源,有预测指出到2030年,全球的能源消耗将大幅度增加。你是否担忧,因为你们的GPU,世界实际上在消耗更多的能源?</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>我会这样回答你,我会采用逆向思考的方式。首先,我要强调的是,如果世界因为为全球AI工厂供电而消耗了更多能源,那么当这一切发生时,我们的世界将会变得更为美好。现在,让我为你详细阐述几点。</p><p>第一,AI的目标并非仅仅在于训练模型,而是在于应用这些模型。当然,去学校学习,单纯为了学习而学习,这本身并无不妥,它是一项崇高且明智的举措。然而,大多数学生来到这里,他们投入了大量的金钱和时间,他们的目标是未来能够取得成功并应用所学的知识。因此,AI的真正目标并非训练,而是推理。推理过程是高度高效的,它能够发现新的方式来储存二氧化碳,比如在水库中;它或许能够设计出新型的风力涡轮机;或许能够发现新的电能储存材料,或者更高效的太阳能电池板材料等。所以,我们的目标是最终创造出能够应用的AI,而非仅仅训练AI。</p><p>第二,我们要牢记,AI并不在意它在哪里进行“学习”。我们无需将超级计算机放置在靠近电网的校园内。我们应该开始考虑将AI超级计算机放置在稍微远离电网的地方,让它们使用可持续能源,而不是将它们放置在人口密集的区域。我们要记住,所有的发电厂原本都是为了满足我们家庭电器的用电需求而建设的,比如灯泡、洗碗机,而现在因为电动汽车的普及,电动汽车也需要靠近我们。但是,超级计算机并不需要靠近我们的家,它们可以在其他地方进行学习和运算。</p><p>第三,我希望看到的是,AI能够高效、智能地发现新的科学成果,以至于我们现有的能源浪费问题——无论是电网的浪费问题,电网在大多数时候都过度配置,而在少数时候又配置不足——我们都能够通过AI在众多不同领域来节约能源,从我们的浪费中节省能源,并期望最终能够节省下20%到30%的能源。这是我的期望和梦想,我希望能够看到,使用能源来进行智能活动是我们能够想象到的最好的能源利用方式。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>我完全同意,将能源高效地应用于智能活动是最佳利用方式。若在某个地方,如中国大湾区(包括深圳、香港、广东等地)之外制造设备,其效率往往会降低,因为难以找到所有必需的组件。以DJI为例,这家本土商业无人机公司拥有令人赞叹的技术。我的问题是,当智能的物理层面变得日益重要时,比如机器人——尤其是自动驾驶汽车这一特殊类型的机器人——你对这些物理智能实体在我们生活中快速涌现的趋势有何看法?在我们的职场生活中,应如何把握并利用大湾区硬件生态系统的巨大潜力?</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>这对中国和整个大湾区而言,都是一个绝佳的机会。原因在于,这个区域在机电一体化领域,即机械与电子技术的融合方面,已经具备了相当高的水平。然而,对于机器人而言,一个关键的缺失是理解物理世界的AI。当前的大语言模型,例如ChatGPT,擅长理解认知层面的知识和智能,却对物理智能知之甚少。例如,它可能不明白为何放下杯子时,杯子不会穿过桌子。因此,我们需要教导AI理解物理智能。</p><p>实际上,我要告诉你的是,我们在这方面正取得显著的进展。你可能已经看过一些演示,通过生成式AI,可以将文本转化为视频。我可以生成一个视频,开始时是我的照片,然后给出指令“Jensen,拿起咖啡杯,喝一口”。既然我能通过指令让AI在视频中完成动作,那么为何不能生成正确的指令来控制机械臂完成同样的动作呢?因此,从当前的生成式AI到通用机器人的飞跃,其实并不遥远。我对这个领域的前景充满期待。</p><p>有三种机器人有望实现大规模生产,而且几乎仅限于这三种。历史上出现过的其他类型的机器人都很难实现大规模量产。大规模生产至关重要,因为它能驱动技术飞轮效应。高投入的研发(R&D)能带来技术突破,从而生产出更优秀的产品,进一步推动生产规模的扩大。这个研发飞轮对任何行业都是关键。</p><p>实际上,虽然只有三种机器人能真正实现大规模生产,但其中两种将会成为产量最高的。原因在于,这三种机器人都能在当前世界中部署。我们称之为“棕色地带”(即有待重新开发的领域)。这三种机器人分别是:汽车,因为我们在过去150到200年间构建了一个适应汽车的世界;其次是无人机,因为天空几乎没有限制;当然,产量最大的将是人形机器人,因为我们为自己构建了一个世界。凭借这三种类型的机器人,我们可以将机器人技术的应用扩展到极高的产量,这正是湾区这样的制造生态系统所具备的独特优势。</p><p>如果你深入思考,就会发现,大湾区是世界上唯一一个同时拥有机电技术和人工智能技术的地区。在其他地方,这种情况并不存在。另外两个机电工业强国是日本和德国,但遗憾的是,它们在人工智能技术方面远远落后,真的需要迎头赶上。而在这里,我们拥有独一无二的机会,我会紧紧抓住这个机遇。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>听到你关于物理智能和机器人的看法,我感到非常高兴。香港科技大学在你所描述的这些方面确实很擅长。</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>人工智能、机器人技术和医疗保健是我们真正需要创新的三个领域。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>的确,随着我们新医学院的建立,我们将进一步推动这些领域的发展。但是,要实现所有这些美好的事情,我们仍然需要你们的支持,我们需要你们的GPU等资源。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1580517846866","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>黄仁勋最新万字对话:英伟达十年将计算边际成本降低100万倍</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-24 08:45 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xapv7ENglJfVBxXx6tdErA><strong>腾讯科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>11月23日,在香港科技大学周六举行的博士学位授予仪式上,英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋被授予工程学荣誉博士学位。授予仪式结束后,黄仁勋与香港科技大学校董会主席沈向洋对话,探讨关于技术、领导力和创业的故事。以下为对话全文:沈向洋:昨晚我辗转难眠,其中一个极为关键的原因在于,我亟欲向诸位引荐这位宇宙间最卓越的首席执行官。但我心中也暗自为贵公司担忧,毕竟昨晚苹果股价上扬,而英伟达的表现却略显逊色。我已...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xapv7ENglJfVBxXx6tdErA\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2cba27869c3918be054b7b714a73a5","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xapv7ENglJfVBxXx6tdErA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173068564","content_text":"11月23日,在香港科技大学周六举行的博士学位授予仪式上,英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋被授予工程学荣誉博士学位。授予仪式结束后,黄仁勋与香港科技大学校董会主席沈向洋对话,探讨关于技术、领导力和创业的故事。以下为对话全文:沈向洋:昨晚我辗转难眠,其中一个极为关键的原因在于,我亟欲向诸位引荐这位宇宙间最卓越的首席执行官。但我心中也暗自为贵公司担忧,毕竟昨晚苹果股价上扬,而英伟达的表现却略显逊色。我已迫不及待想要知晓股市收盘的结果!今晨醒来,我第一时间询问妻子英伟达是否挺住了。你在人工智能领域领航已久,能否再谈谈对人工智能的看法,以及这项技术,或是AGI(通用人工智能)可能带来的影响?黄仁勋:正如你所了解的,当人工智能网络能够学习并掌握从字节、语言、图像到蛋白质序列等多种数据的理解时,一场变革性、开创性的能力便应运而生了。我们突然间拥有了能够理解单词内涵的计算机。得益于生成式AI,信息得以在不同模式间自由转换,比如从文本到图像、从蛋白质到文本、从文本到蛋白质,乃至从文本到化学品等。这一原本作为函数逼近器(Function Approximator,数学领域的重要概念,用于多个领域)及语言翻译器而存在的工具,如今所面对的问题是,我们如何能充分利用它?你见证了全球范围内创业公司如雨后春笋般涌现,它们结合了这些不同的模型与能力,展现出无限可能。因此,我认为真正令人惊叹的突破在于,我们现在能够理解信息的真正意义。这意味着,作为数字生物学家,你能理解所观数据的含义,从而于万千数据中精准捕捉到关键信息;作为英伟达的芯片设计师、系统设计师,或是农业技术人员、气候科学家、能源领域的研究者,在探寻新材料的过程中,这无疑是开创性的壮举。沈向洋:如今,通用翻译器的概念已然成形,它赋予我们理解世间万物的能力。许多人都听你描述过人工智能对社会的惊人影响。那些观点深深触动了我,甚至在某些方面让我感到震撼。回顾历史,农业革命让我们生产出了更多的食物,工业革命则让我们的钢铁产量大幅提升。进入信息技术时代,信息的数量更是爆炸式增长。而今,在这个智能时代,英伟达与人工智能正携手“制造”智能。你能进一步阐述为何这项工作如此重要吗?黄仁勋:从计算机科学的视角来看,我们重新发明了整个堆栈。这意味着,我们过去开发软件的方式已经发生了根本性的变化。提及计算机科学,软件开发自然是不可或缺的一环,它是如何实现的,这至关重要。以往,我们依靠手工编写软件,凭借想象力和创造力构思功能、设计算法,然后将其转化为代码,输入电脑。从Fortran到Pascal,再到C语言和C++,这些编程语言让我们得以用代码来表达创意。代码在CPU上运行得很好,我们向计算机输入数据,询问它从中发现了什么函数,通过观察我们提供的数据,计算机能够识别出其中的模式和关系。然而,现在的情况已经有所不同,我们不再依赖于传统的代码编写方式,而是转向了机器学习和机器生成。这不再是简单的软件问题,而是涉及到了机器学习,它生成神经网络,并在GPU上进行处理。这一转变,从编码到机器学习,从CPU到GPU,标志着一个全新的时代的到来。而且,由于GPU的功能异常强大,我们现在能够开发的软件类型堪称非凡,而在这一强大基础之上,则是人工智能的蓬勃发展。这正是其出现所带来的变革,计算机科学因此发生了巨大变化。现在,我们需要思考的是,这样的变化将如何影响我们的行业?我们都在竞相利用机器学习去探索新的人工智能领域。那么,究竟什么是人工智能呢?这其实是一个大家耳熟能详的概念,即认知自动化和解决问题自动化。解决问题的自动化可以归结为三个核心概念:观察并感知环境,理解并推理环境,然后提出并执行计划。例如,在自动驾驶汽车中,车辆可以感知周围环境,推理自身及周围车辆的位置,最后规划出行驶路线。这其实就是一种数字司机的表现形式。同样地,在医疗领域,我们可以观察CT扫描图像,理解并推理出图像中的信息,如果发现异常,可能代表着肿瘤的存在,然后我们可以标记出来并告知放射科医生。此时,我们就扮演了数字放射科医生的角色。在我们所做的几乎每一件事情中,都可以找到与人工智能相关的应用,它们能够出色地完成特定的任务。如果我们拥有足够多的数字智能体,并且这些智能体能够与产生这些数字信息的计算机进行交互,那么这就构成了数字人工智能。然而,目前我们所有人对数据中心的总体消耗,虽然看似庞大,但数据中心主要是在生产一种名为“Token”的东西,而并非真正的数字智能。我可以解释一下这两者之间的区别。300年前,通用电气公司和西屋电气公司发明了一种新型仪器——发电机,并最终演化为交流发电机。他们非常明智地创造了一种“消费者”来消费他们所生产的电力,这些“消费者”包括灯泡、烤面包机等电器设备。当然,他们还创造了各种各样的数码设备或电器,这些设备都需要消耗电力。现在,来看看我们正在做的事情。我们正在创建Copilots、ChatGPT等智能工具,这些都是我们创造出的不同类型的智能“消费者”,它们实际上就像灯泡和烤面包机一样,是消耗能量的设备。但想象一下,那些令人惊叹的、我们所有人都会使用的智能设备,它们将连接到一个新的工厂。这个工厂曾经是交流电发电厂,但现在,新的工厂将是数字智能工厂。从工业的角度来看,我们实际上正在创造一个新的产业,这个产业在吸收能量并产生数字智能,而这些数字智能可以被应用于各种不同的场景。我们相信,这个数字智能产业的消耗量将是巨大的,而这个行业在以前是不存在的,就像交流电发电行业在以前也不存在一样。沈向洋:你为我们勾勒了一幅充满希望的光明未来,而这在很大程度上得益于你和英伟达在过去十多年间对该领域的卓越贡献。摩尔定律在业界一直备受瞩目,而近年来,“黄氏定律”逐渐为人们所熟悉。在早期的计算机行业中,英特尔提出的摩尔定律曾预言计算能力每18个月翻倍。然而,在过去10到12年间,特别是在你的引领下,计算能力的增长速度甚至超越了这一预测,实现了每年翻倍甚至更高速度的增长。从消费端观察,大语言模型在过去12年里的计算需求每年都以四倍以上的速度激增。若以此速度持续10年,计算需求的增长将是一个惊人的数字——高达100万倍。这也正是我向他人阐释英伟达股价在过去10年间上涨300倍原因时的重要论据。考虑到计算需求的这一巨大增长,英伟达的股价或许并不显得高昂。那么,当你运用你的“水晶球”预测未来时,你认为在接下来的10年里,我们是否还会见证计算需求再次实现100万倍的增长呢?黄仁勋:摩尔定律依赖于两个核心概念:一是超大规模集成电路(VLSI)的设计原理,它是受到我、加州理工大学的卡弗·米德教授(Carver Mead)以及林恩·康威教授 (Lynn Conway )的著作启发的,这些著作激励了整整一代人;二是随着晶体管尺寸的不断缩小,我们得以每隔一段时间就将半导体的性能提升一倍,大约每一年半就能实现一次性能翻倍,因此每五年性能提升可达10倍,每十年更是能提升100倍。我们正身处一个趋势之中:神经网络的规模越大,用于训练的数据量越多,AI似乎就表现得越智能。这一经验法则与摩尔定律有着异曲同工之妙,我们不妨称之为“规模定律(Scaling Law)”,且这一定律似乎仍在持续发挥作用。然而,我们也清醒地认识到,仅仅依靠预训练——即利用全球范围内的海量数据自动挖掘知识——是远远不够的。正如大学毕业是一个至关重要的里程碑,但它绝不是终点。接下来,还有后训练阶段,也就是深入钻研某一特定技能,这要求强化学习、人类反馈、AI反馈、合成数据生成以及多路径学习等多种技巧的综合运用。简而言之,后训练就是选定一个特定领域,并致力于对其进行深度钻研。这就像当我们步入职业生涯后,会进行大量的专业学习和实践。而在这之后,我们最终会迎来所谓的“思考”阶段,也就是所谓的测试时间计算。有些事情你一眼就能看出答案,而有些则需要我们将其拆解成多个步骤,并从第一性原理出发,逐一寻找解决方案。这可能需要我们进行多次迭代,模拟各种可能的结果,因为并非所有答案都是可预测的。因此,我们称之为思考,且思考的时间越长,答案的质量往往越高。而大量的计算资源将助力我们产出更高质量的答案。虽然今天的答案已是我们所能提供的最佳结果,但我们仍在寻求一个临界点,即所得到的答案不再局限于我们当前所能提供的最佳水平。在这一点上,你需要判断答案是否真实可靠、是否有意义且明智。我们必须达到这样一个境界,即所得到的答案在很大程度上是值得信赖的。我认为,这还需要数年的时间才能实现。与此同时,我们仍需不断提升计算能力。正如你之前所提到的,过去十年里,我们将计算性能提升了100万倍。而英伟达的贡献在于,我们将计算的边际成本降低了同样的幅度。想象一下,如果生活中有你所依赖的事物,如电力或其他任何选择,当它的成本降低了100万倍时,你的行为习惯将会发生根本性的变化。对于计算,我们的看法也已经发生了翻天覆地的变化,而这正是英伟达有史以来最伟大的成就之一。我们利用机器去学习海量的数据,这是研究人员无法单独完成的任务,而这正是机器学习能够取得成功的关键所在。沈向洋:我迫切希望听听你的看法,香港在当前机遇中应如何作为。现在,一个特别令人兴奋的事情是“AI for Science”,而你对此一直抱有极大的热情。香港科技大学已经投入了大量的计算基础设施和GPU资源,我们特别重视推动各院系之间的合作,如物理与计算机科学、材料科学与计算机科学、生物学与计算机科学等领域的交叉融合。你之前也深入探讨了生物学的未来。另外,值得一提的是,香港政府已决定建立第三所医学院,而香港科技大学是首个提交这个提案的高校。那么,对于校长、我本人以及整个大学而言,你有什么建议?黄仁勋:首先,我在2018年的超算大会上曾介绍过人工智能,但当时遭遇了诸多质疑。原因在于,那时的人工智能更像是一个“黑箱”。诚然,时至今日,它依然在一定程度上保持着“黑箱”的特性,但已比过去更加透明。比如,你我皆为“黑箱”,但现在我们可以向AI发问:“你为何提出这样的建议?”或者“请逐步阐述你得出这一结论的过程。”通过此类提问,AI正变得愈发透明和易于解释。因为我们可以借助问题来探究其思考过程,正如教授们通过提问来洞察学生的思考过程一样。重要的不仅仅是获取答案,更在于答案的合理性以及是否基于第一性原理。这在2018年是无法做到的。其次,AI目前尚未能从第一性原理中直接得出答案,它是通过观察数据来学习和得出结论的。因此,它并非模拟第一性原理的求解器,而是在模仿智能、模仿物理。那么,这种模仿对科学而言是否有价值呢?我认为,其价值无可估量。因为在众多科学领域,我们虽然理解第一性原理,如薛定谔方程、麦克斯韦方程等,但面对大型系统时,我们却难以模拟和理解。因此,我们无法仅凭第一性原理进行求解,这在计算上存在局限,甚至是不可能的。然而,我们可以利用AI,训练它理解这些物理原理,并借助其模拟大型系统,从而帮助我们理解这些系统。那么,这种应用具体在哪些方面能够发挥作用呢?首先,人体生物学的尺度从纳米级开始,时间尺度则跨越纳秒至年。在如此宽广的尺度和时间跨度上,使用传统求解器是根本无法实现的。现在的问题是,我们能否利用AI来模拟人体生物学,以便更深入地理解这些极其复杂的多尺度系统?这样,我们或许可以称之为创建了一个人体生物学的数字孪生体。这正是我们寄予厚望之处。如今,我们或许已拥有了计算机科学技术,使数字生物学家、气候科学家以及处理异常庞大复杂问题的科学家们能够首次真正理解物理系统。这是我的期望,希望在这一交叉领域能够实现这一愿景。提及你们的医学院项目,对于香港科技大学而言,一所与众不同的医学院即将在这里诞生,尽管这所大学的传统专业领域是技术、计算机科学和人工智能。这与世界上绝大多数医学院截然不同,它们大多是在成为医学院后,再尝试引入人工智能和技术,而这通常会面临人们对其技术的怀疑和不信任。然而,你们却有机会从头开始,创建一个从一开始就与技术紧密相连的机构,并在这里推动技术的不断发展。这里的人们深知技术的局限性与潜力。我认为,这是一个千载难逢的机遇,希望你们能够紧紧抓住。沈向洋:我们当然会采纳你的建议。香港科技大学一直以来在技术和创新方面有着卓越的表现,不断推动计算机科学、工程、生物学等领域的前沿发展。因此,作为香港第三所医学院,我们坚信自己能够走出一条与众不同的道路,将传统的医学培训与我们在技术研究方面的优势相结合。我确信,未来我们还会向你寻求更多的建议。不过,我想稍微改变一下话题,谈谈领导力。你是硅谷任期最长的CEO之一,可能已经远超其他人,担任英伟达CEO的时间已经长达30年或31年之久了吧?黄仁勋:差不多32年了!沈向洋:但你似乎从未感到疲倦。黄仁勋:不,我其实感到非常累。今天早上到这里的时候,我还说超级累。沈向洋:但你依然在不断前行。因此,我们当然想从你身上学到一些领导大型组织的经验。你是如何领导英伟达这样一个庞大组织的?它拥有数万名员工、惊人的收入和大量的客户,覆盖面极广。你是如何做到以如此惊人的效率领导这样一个大型组织的?黄仁勋:今天我想说,我感到非常惊讶。通常情况下,你只会看到计算生物学家或者商科学生,但今天我们看到的计算生物学家同时也是商科学生,这真是太棒了。我从未上过任何商业课程,也从未写过商业计划书,我完全不知道如何下手。我依赖于你们所有人来给予我帮助。我要告诉你们的是,首先你们要尽可能多地去学习,而我也一直在不断学习。其次,关于你们想全身心投入并视为一生事业的任何事情,最重要的是热爱。将你所做的任何事情都视为你毕生的事业,而不是你的工作,我认为这种思维方式会在你的心中产生很大的不同。英伟达就是我的事业。如果你想成为一家公司的CEO,你有很多东西要学,你必须不断地重塑自己。世界一直在变化,你的公司和技术也一直在变化。你今天所知道的一切,将来都会有用,但还远远不够,所以我基本上每天都在学习。我在乘飞机过来的路上,也在看YouTube,在和我的AI聊天。我找了一个人工智能做导师,问很多问题。AI会给我一个答案,我会问它为什么给出这个答案,让它一步步地告诉我答案,以这种方式向我解释,将这种推理应用到其他事情上,给我一些类比。有很多不同的学习方法,我利用AI。所以,有很多学习方法,但我要强调的是,你要不断学习。关于担任CEO与领导者的心得,我总结了以下几点:首先,身为CEO及领导者,你无需扮演无所不知的全能角色。你必须坚定地相信自己所追求的目标,但这并不等同于你必须对每个细微之处都了如指掌。信心与确定性是两个截然不同的概念。在追求目标的过程中,你可以满怀信心地前进,同时开放心态,欣然接受并拥抱其中的不确定性。这种不确定性实际上为你提供了持续学习、不断成长的空间。因此,要学会从不确定性中汲取力量,视其为推动你前行的朋友而非敌人。其次,领导者确实需要展现出坚韧不拔的一面,因为周围有许多人都在仰仗你的力量,并从你的坚定中汲取勇气。然而,坚韧并不意味着你必须时刻隐藏自己的脆弱。在需要帮助时,不妨勇敢地寻求他人的支持。我始终秉持这一理念,无数次地向他人坦诚求助。脆弱并非软弱的表现,不确定性也不是信心的缺失。在这个复杂多变的世界中,你既可以坚强自信地面对挑战,也可以诚实地接纳自己的脆弱和不确定性。再者,作为领导者,你的决策应始终围绕使命展开,以他人的福祉和成功为考量。只有当你的决策真正有利于他人时,你才能赢得他们的信任与尊重。无论是公司内部员工、合作伙伴,还是我们服务的整个生态体系,我始终在思考如何促进他们的成功,如何保障他们的利益。在决策过程中,我总是以他人的最佳利益为出发点,以此作为我们行动的指南。我认为这些可能很有帮助。沈向洋:关于团队合作,我有个很感兴趣的问题想请教。你有60位直接下属需要向你汇报工作,那么你的员工会议是如何进行的?你是如何有效地管理这么多高层管理人员的?这似乎体现了你独特的领导风格。黄仁勋:关键在于保持透明度。我会在大家面前明确地阐述我们的理由、目标以及我们需要采取的行动,我们一起协作制定策略。无论是什么样的策略,每个人都会在同一时间听到。因为他们都一起参与了制定计划,所以当公司要决定什么事情时,都是大家一起商量好的,不是我一个人说了算,也不是我告诉他们要怎么做。我们共同讨论,共同得出结论。我的职责就是确保每个人都接收到了同样的信息。我通常是最后一个发言的人,基于我们的讨论结果,来明确方向和优先级。如果存在任何不明确的地方,我会消除这些疑虑。一旦我们达成共识,都理解了策略,我就会基于大家都是成年人的事实来推进工作。我之前提到的关于我的行为准则——不断学习、自信但拥抱不确定性——如果我不清楚,或者他们不清楚某些事情,我希望他们能够主动说出来。如果他们需要帮助,我希望他们能够向我们寻求支持。在这里,没有人会独自面对失败。然后,当其他人看到我的行为模式——作为CEO、作为领导者,我可以展现脆弱的一面,我可以寻求帮助,我可以承认不确定性,我可以犯错——他们就会明白他们同样可以这样做。我所期望的就是,如果他们需要帮助,就勇敢地说出来。但除此之外,我的团队有60个人,他们都是各自领域的顶尖人才。在大多数情况下,他们并不需要我的帮助。沈向洋:我必须说,你的管理方法确实成效显著。你在学位授予仪式上的演讲让我记忆犹新,你提及了香港科技大学的诸多数据,特别是校友创立的初创公司数量,以及我们学校培育出的独角兽企业和上市企业数量。这所大学确实以孕育新企业家和公司而著称。然而,即便在这样的环境下,我们今天仍有许多硕士生在此深造。你和你的团队在非常年轻的时候便创立了自己的公司,并取得了今天这样令人瞩目的成功。那么,对于我们的学生和教职员工,你有什么建议呢?他们应该在何时、为何开启自己的事业?除了你曾经向妻子许下在30岁前创办公司的那个,你还有其他的建议吗?黄仁勋:那确实是我用来搭讪的小手段,并非真有其意。我16岁上大学,17岁时遇到了我的妻子,那时她19岁。作为班上最小的学生,面对250名同学中只有三个女孩的情况,而我又显得像个孩子,所以必须学会一些吸引注意的技巧。我走向她,告诉她,虽然我看起来年轻,但她对我的第一印象肯定是我很聪明。于是,我鼓起勇气说:“你想看看我的作业吗?”接着,我向她许下了一个承诺,我说:“如果你每个星期天都和我一起做作业,我保证你会得到全优的成绩。”就这样,每个星期天我们都能约会,并且一整天都在一起学习。为了让她最终愿意嫁给我,我还告诉她,到我30岁的时候——那时我才20岁——我会成为CEO。我完全不知道自己当时在说些什么。后来,我们真的结婚了。所以,这就是我的全部建议,带着一点幽默和真诚。沈向洋:我从学生那里收集到一个问题,他想知道:他在学校表现优异,但需要全神贯注于学习。他读了你的爱情故事后,担心如果自己也花时间谈恋爱,会不会影响到学业。黄仁勋:我的建议是,绝对不会。但前提是,你必须保持优异的成绩。她(我的妻子)从未发现过这个小秘密,但我一直想让她觉得我很聪明。所以,在她来之前,我就先把作业完成了。等到她来的时候,我已经知道了所有的答案。她可能一直以为我是个天才,而且整整四年都是这样认为的。沈向洋:有一位华盛顿大学教授在几年前发表了一个观点,他认为在深度学习这场革命中,像麻省理工学院(MIT)这样的顶尖美国大学其实并没有做出太多开创性的贡献。当然,他并非仅指MIT,而是指出整个美国顶尖大学在过去十年里的贡献相对有限。相反,我们看到像微软、OpenAI、谷歌的DeepMind这样的顶尖公司取得了惊人的成果,其中一个重要原因就是它们拥有强大的计算能力。那么,面对这样的情况,我们应该如何应对?是不是应该考虑加入英伟达,或者与英伟达展开合作?作为我们的新盟友,你能给我们一些建议或者帮助吗?黄仁勋:你提到的这个问题确实触及了大学当前面临的一个严峻的结构性挑战。我们都知道,如果没有机器学习,我们就无法像今天这样推动科学研究的快速发展。而机器学习又离不开强大的计算支持。这就像研究宇宙离不开射电望远镜,研究基本粒子离不开粒子加速器一样。没有这些工具,我们就无法深入探索未知领域。而今天的“科学仪器”就是AI超级计算机。大学面临的一个结构性问题是,研究人员通常都是自己筹集资金,一旦资金到手,他们就不太愿意与他人分享资源。但机器学习有个特点,就是需要这些高性能计算机在某些时间段内被充分利用,而不是一直闲置。没有人会一直占用所有资源,但每个人在某个时候都需要巨大的计算能力。那么,大学应该如何应对这个挑战呢?我认为,大学应该成为基础设施建设的引领者,通过集中资源来推动全校的研究发展。但这在像斯坦福或哈佛这样的顶尖大学中实施起来非常困难,因为这些大学的计算机科学研究人员通常能筹集到大量资金,而其他领域的研究人员则相对困难。那么,现在的解决办法是什么呢?我认为,大学若能为全校构建基础设施,将能有效引领这一领域的变革,并产生深远影响。然而,这确实是大学当前所面临的一个结构性难题。正因如此,众多研究人员才会选择前往我们公司、谷歌、微软等企业实习或进行研究,因为我们能够提供访问先进基础设施的机会。随后,他们在返回各自大学时,会希望我们能够保持其研究的活跃性,以便他们继续推进工作。此外,还有许多教授,包括客座教授,会在从事教学工作的同时,兼顾研究工作。我们公司就聘请了几位这样的教授。因此,虽然解决问题的方法多种多样,但最为根本的,还是大学需要重新审视并优化其研究资助体系。沈向洋:我有一个颇具挑战性的问题想请教你。一方面,我们欣喜地看到计算能力的显著提升以及价格的下降,这无疑是个好消息。但另一方面,你们的GPU会消耗大量能源,有预测指出到2030年,全球的能源消耗将大幅度增加。你是否担忧,因为你们的GPU,世界实际上在消耗更多的能源?黄仁勋:我会这样回答你,我会采用逆向思考的方式。首先,我要强调的是,如果世界因为为全球AI工厂供电而消耗了更多能源,那么当这一切发生时,我们的世界将会变得更为美好。现在,让我为你详细阐述几点。第一,AI的目标并非仅仅在于训练模型,而是在于应用这些模型。当然,去学校学习,单纯为了学习而学习,这本身并无不妥,它是一项崇高且明智的举措。然而,大多数学生来到这里,他们投入了大量的金钱和时间,他们的目标是未来能够取得成功并应用所学的知识。因此,AI的真正目标并非训练,而是推理。推理过程是高度高效的,它能够发现新的方式来储存二氧化碳,比如在水库中;它或许能够设计出新型的风力涡轮机;或许能够发现新的电能储存材料,或者更高效的太阳能电池板材料等。所以,我们的目标是最终创造出能够应用的AI,而非仅仅训练AI。第二,我们要牢记,AI并不在意它在哪里进行“学习”。我们无需将超级计算机放置在靠近电网的校园内。我们应该开始考虑将AI超级计算机放置在稍微远离电网的地方,让它们使用可持续能源,而不是将它们放置在人口密集的区域。我们要记住,所有的发电厂原本都是为了满足我们家庭电器的用电需求而建设的,比如灯泡、洗碗机,而现在因为电动汽车的普及,电动汽车也需要靠近我们。但是,超级计算机并不需要靠近我们的家,它们可以在其他地方进行学习和运算。第三,我希望看到的是,AI能够高效、智能地发现新的科学成果,以至于我们现有的能源浪费问题——无论是电网的浪费问题,电网在大多数时候都过度配置,而在少数时候又配置不足——我们都能够通过AI在众多不同领域来节约能源,从我们的浪费中节省能源,并期望最终能够节省下20%到30%的能源。这是我的期望和梦想,我希望能够看到,使用能源来进行智能活动是我们能够想象到的最好的能源利用方式。沈向洋:我完全同意,将能源高效地应用于智能活动是最佳利用方式。若在某个地方,如中国大湾区(包括深圳、香港、广东等地)之外制造设备,其效率往往会降低,因为难以找到所有必需的组件。以DJI为例,这家本土商业无人机公司拥有令人赞叹的技术。我的问题是,当智能的物理层面变得日益重要时,比如机器人——尤其是自动驾驶汽车这一特殊类型的机器人——你对这些物理智能实体在我们生活中快速涌现的趋势有何看法?在我们的职场生活中,应如何把握并利用大湾区硬件生态系统的巨大潜力?黄仁勋:这对中国和整个大湾区而言,都是一个绝佳的机会。原因在于,这个区域在机电一体化领域,即机械与电子技术的融合方面,已经具备了相当高的水平。然而,对于机器人而言,一个关键的缺失是理解物理世界的AI。当前的大语言模型,例如ChatGPT,擅长理解认知层面的知识和智能,却对物理智能知之甚少。例如,它可能不明白为何放下杯子时,杯子不会穿过桌子。因此,我们需要教导AI理解物理智能。实际上,我要告诉你的是,我们在这方面正取得显著的进展。你可能已经看过一些演示,通过生成式AI,可以将文本转化为视频。我可以生成一个视频,开始时是我的照片,然后给出指令“Jensen,拿起咖啡杯,喝一口”。既然我能通过指令让AI在视频中完成动作,那么为何不能生成正确的指令来控制机械臂完成同样的动作呢?因此,从当前的生成式AI到通用机器人的飞跃,其实并不遥远。我对这个领域的前景充满期待。有三种机器人有望实现大规模生产,而且几乎仅限于这三种。历史上出现过的其他类型的机器人都很难实现大规模量产。大规模生产至关重要,因为它能驱动技术飞轮效应。高投入的研发(R&D)能带来技术突破,从而生产出更优秀的产品,进一步推动生产规模的扩大。这个研发飞轮对任何行业都是关键。实际上,虽然只有三种机器人能真正实现大规模生产,但其中两种将会成为产量最高的。原因在于,这三种机器人都能在当前世界中部署。我们称之为“棕色地带”(即有待重新开发的领域)。这三种机器人分别是:汽车,因为我们在过去150到200年间构建了一个适应汽车的世界;其次是无人机,因为天空几乎没有限制;当然,产量最大的将是人形机器人,因为我们为自己构建了一个世界。凭借这三种类型的机器人,我们可以将机器人技术的应用扩展到极高的产量,这正是湾区这样的制造生态系统所具备的独特优势。如果你深入思考,就会发现,大湾区是世界上唯一一个同时拥有机电技术和人工智能技术的地区。在其他地方,这种情况并不存在。另外两个机电工业强国是日本和德国,但遗憾的是,它们在人工智能技术方面远远落后,真的需要迎头赶上。而在这里,我们拥有独一无二的机会,我会紧紧抓住这个机遇。沈向洋:听到你关于物理智能和机器人的看法,我感到非常高兴。香港科技大学在你所描述的这些方面确实很擅长。黄仁勋:人工智能、机器人技术和医疗保健是我们真正需要创新的三个领域。沈向洋:的确,随着我们新医学院的建立,我们将进一步推动这些领域的发展。但是,要实现所有这些美好的事情,我们仍然需要你们的支持,我们需要你们的GPU等资源。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":298066950332512,"gmtCreate":1713799058346,"gmtModify":1713799060270,"author":{"id":"3550888125507139","authorId":"3550888125507139","name":"FunnyWong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3550888125507139","authorIdStr":"3550888125507139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 这么简单的逻辑都看不懂? ai只有服务于实体经济形成正反馈提升生产效率和服务效率,然后不断充实数据大模型,给更多细分领域赋能,才是出路。美国欧洲一没有实体二技术壁垒逐渐被打破,且看中国一季度ai芯片进口量暴跌,英伟达还如何有未来?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 这么简单的逻辑都看不懂? ai只有服务于实体经济形成正反馈提升生产效率和服务效率,然后不断充实数据大模型,给更多细分领域赋能,才是出路。美国欧洲一没有实体二技术壁垒逐渐被打破,且看中国一季度ai芯片进口量暴跌,英伟达还如何有未来?","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这么简单的逻辑都看不懂? ai只有服务于实体经济形成正反馈提升生产效率和服务效率,然后不断充实数据大模型,给更多细分领域赋能,才是出路。美国欧洲一没有实体二技术壁垒逐渐被打破,且看中国一季度ai芯片进口量暴跌,英伟达还如何有未来?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/298066950332512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":297157660676200,"gmtCreate":1713577103154,"gmtModify":1713580459436,"author":{"id":"3550888125507139","authorId":"3550888125507139","name":"FunnyWong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3550888125507139","authorIdStr":"3550888125507139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"乔布斯在天有灵看到这 会伤感哭泣吧","listText":"乔布斯在天有灵看到这 会伤感哭泣吧","text":"乔布斯在天有灵看到这 会伤感哭泣吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297157660676200","repostId":"1136332879","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136332879","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1713576693,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136332879?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-20 09:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"苹果遭抛弃!数位高管卖出股票,今年至今跌超15%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136332879","media":"智通财经网","summary":"在2023年取得惊人表现后,苹果的股价今年却遭遇重创。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者: 许然</p><p>在2023年取得惊人表现后,苹果的股价今年却遭遇重创。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2023年苹果股价飙升了48%,远超标普500指数的24%涨幅,并被誉为领导市场涨势的“七巨头”之一,但最近的一系列负面消息和对苹果在人工智能领域可能落后的担忧,导致其股价持续下滑。苹果股价在2月初因12月季度服务收入未达预期而下跌,尽管整体财报表现强劲。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d44071d6a0a2f39323f2426649852b34\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外,该公司从未正式宣布的汽车项目在2月底告终,进一步削弱了市场对其的期待。3月,美国司法部起诉苹果,指控其违反联邦法律,以维持其在移动电话市场的主导地位,而苹果则否认iPhone具有垄断性并否认违法行为。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至周五收盘,苹果股价今年已下跌超15%,而同期标普500指数则上涨了4%。仅在过去一周,苹果股价就下跌了近7%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时,苹果高管们正在抛售自家股票。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>苹果首席执行官库克(Tim Cook)及其四位直接下属在本月出售了价值超过7000万美元的股票。</strong>库克在4月1日通过限制性股票单元的结算获得了196,410股股票,并在当天及4月2日出售了等额的股票,共计获得3330万美元,平均每股售价为169.33美元。库克通过一个名为10b5-1的交易计划出售这些股票,该计划于去年11月28日采纳。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">10b5-1交易计划是一种自动执行交易的机制,当达到特定条件如价格、交易量和时间时便会触发,旨在消除内部人士利用非公开信息获利的可能性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该公司首席运营官Jeff Williams在4月11日通过一项计划出售了59,162股苹果股票,共计获得1020万美元,平均每股价格为172.22美元。Williams目前拥有489,944股苹果股份。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">总法律顾问Katherine Adams和零售高级副总裁Deirdre O’Brien在4月1日通过限制性股票单元的结算各自获得了113,309股股票,并在4月2日各自出售了54,732股,共计获得920万美元,平均每股价格为168.9美元。Adams目前拥有293,393股,而O’Brien拥有136,572股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首席财务官Luca Maestri在4月11日通过一项计划出售了53,194股苹果股票,共计获得930万美元,平均每股价格为174.12美元。Maestri目前拥有107,788股股份。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>苹果遭抛弃!数位高管卖出股票,今年至今跌超15%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n苹果遭抛弃!数位高管卖出股票,今年至今跌超15%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-20 09:31 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1105990.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者: 许然在2023年取得惊人表现后,苹果的股价今年却遭遇重创。2023年苹果股价飙升了48%,远超标普500指数的24%涨幅,并被誉为领导市场涨势的“七巨头”之一,但最近的一系列负面消息和对苹果在人工智能领域可能落后的担忧,导致其股价持续下滑。苹果股价在2月初因12月季度服务收入未达预期而下跌,尽管整体财报表现强劲。此外,该公司从未正式宣布的汽车项目在2月底告终,进一步削弱了市场对其的期待。3...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1105990.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/980522969e8f077e22524fe91f48fecd","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1105990.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1136332879","content_text":"作者: 许然在2023年取得惊人表现后,苹果的股价今年却遭遇重创。2023年苹果股价飙升了48%,远超标普500指数的24%涨幅,并被誉为领导市场涨势的“七巨头”之一,但最近的一系列负面消息和对苹果在人工智能领域可能落后的担忧,导致其股价持续下滑。苹果股价在2月初因12月季度服务收入未达预期而下跌,尽管整体财报表现强劲。此外,该公司从未正式宣布的汽车项目在2月底告终,进一步削弱了市场对其的期待。3月,美国司法部起诉苹果,指控其违反联邦法律,以维持其在移动电话市场的主导地位,而苹果则否认iPhone具有垄断性并否认违法行为。截至周五收盘,苹果股价今年已下跌超15%,而同期标普500指数则上涨了4%。仅在过去一周,苹果股价就下跌了近7%。与此同时,苹果高管们正在抛售自家股票。苹果首席执行官库克(Tim Cook)及其四位直接下属在本月出售了价值超过7000万美元的股票。库克在4月1日通过限制性股票单元的结算获得了196,410股股票,并在当天及4月2日出售了等额的股票,共计获得3330万美元,平均每股售价为169.33美元。库克通过一个名为10b5-1的交易计划出售这些股票,该计划于去年11月28日采纳。10b5-1交易计划是一种自动执行交易的机制,当达到特定条件如价格、交易量和时间时便会触发,旨在消除内部人士利用非公开信息获利的可能性。该公司首席运营官Jeff Williams在4月11日通过一项计划出售了59,162股苹果股票,共计获得1020万美元,平均每股价格为172.22美元。Williams目前拥有489,944股苹果股份。总法律顾问Katherine Adams和零售高级副总裁Deirdre O’Brien在4月1日通过限制性股票单元的结算各自获得了113,309股股票,并在4月2日各自出售了54,732股,共计获得920万美元,平均每股价格为168.9美元。Adams目前拥有293,393股,而O’Brien拥有136,572股。首席财务官Luca Maestri在4月11日通过一项计划出售了53,194股苹果股票,共计获得930万美元,平均每股价格为174.12美元。Maestri目前拥有107,788股股份。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":285735630405808,"gmtCreate":1710778092355,"gmtModify":1710778319928,"author":{"id":"3550888125507139","authorId":"3550888125507139","name":"FunnyWong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3550888125507139","authorIdStr":"3550888125507139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 像极了0几年的美股互联网泡沫,如出一辙,不同的是如今美国的制造业跟0几年简直差天共地。没有实体经济作为基本盘的AI只是空中楼阁,随时坍塌。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 像极了0几年的美股互联网泡沫,如出一辙,不同的是如今美国的制造业跟0几年简直差天共地。没有实体经济作为基本盘的AI只是空中楼阁,随时坍塌。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 像极了0几年的美股互联网泡沫,如出一辙,不同的是如今美国的制造业跟0几年简直差天共地。没有实体经济作为基本盘的AI只是空中楼阁,随时坍塌。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/285735630405808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":653142108,"gmtCreate":1680687038204,"gmtModify":1680687470180,"author":{"id":"3550888125507139","authorId":"3550888125507139","name":"FunnyWong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3550888125507139","authorIdStr":"3550888125507139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"5年内被中芯55分市场,10年内必被全面超越","listText":"5年内被中芯55分市场,10年内必被全面超越","text":"5年内被中芯55分市场,10年内必被全面超越","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653142108","repostId":"1136674725","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136674725","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1680608022,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136674725?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-04 19:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | 台积电已没想象力?市场预测Q1营收减幅恐大于预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136674725","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美东时间4月20日,台积电将发布Q1财报,公司预计2023年一季度营收约5126.9亿新台币至5372.5亿新台币,较2022年第四季下滑14.1%~18%。根据彭博一致预期,台积电一季度营收为525","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>美东时间4月20日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>将发布Q1财报,<strong>公司预计2023年一季度营收约5126.9亿新台币至5372.5亿新台币,较2022年第四季下滑14.1%~18%。根据彭博一致预期,台积电一季度营收为5254.84亿新台币,调整后净利润为1967.14亿新台币,调整后EPS为7.61元新台币。</strong></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f265c01f18bee1cd923e5e0852bf02\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"315\"/></p><blockquote><strong>台积电:2023年前2个月收入总计3632.3亿新台币</strong></blockquote><p>数据显示:台积电1月营收2000.51亿新台币,同比增长16.2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/256a2fe8b29e7caf908d796521a325d7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"166\"/></p><p>2月净收入约1631.7亿新台币,同比增加11.1%</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/374f316058a5b745be03726ea8afb285\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"225\"/></p><p>回顾来看,今年1月份,台积电的营业收入约为2000.5亿新台币,这是台积电1月营收首度超过2000亿新台币,为历年同期新高,1月营收环比增长 3.9%,同比增长16.2%。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">不过彼时,台积电就曾预计一季度的整体表现不会太好。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">因终端市场需求持续疲软,以及客户进一步库存调整影响,台积电预计一季度营收约167亿至175亿美元,以新台币30.7元兑1美元汇率计算,营收金额约5126.9亿新台币至5372.5亿新台币,<strong>较2022年第四季下滑14.1%~18%</strong>。毛利率介于 53.5%~55.5%,营业利益率介于41.5%~43.5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>因此,扣除 1-2 月营 3632.25亿新台币,接下来的3月营收金额要超过1495亿元,才可达成财测目标。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong><span style=\"color:#923737;\" class=\"color-mark\">不过值得注意的是,受降价砍单潮影响,台积电首季营收季减幅度恐大于预期。</span></strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">进入2023年,消费终端市场疲软,随着客户和供应链持续采取因应措施,台积电预期半导体供应链库存将在2023上半年大幅降低,以平衡至更健康水平。若以美元计,台积电2023上半年营收预期将比2022年同期下降中至高个位数(mid-to-high single digit)百分比。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">此前,曾有市场消息称,台积电遭五大客户(AMD、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、联发科、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>)砍单,受库存调整状况比预期激烈影响,投片量减少并将部分产品所需芯片顺延至第 2 季拉货。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">另外据半导体设备商透露,受到终端市场供需反转影响,台积电一季度 7/6 纳米制程产能利用率跌势超乎预期,将拖累首季整体产能利用率大跌,但台积电仍会守住 70% 关卡。有市场分析,在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a> 3nm 制程工艺大单的推动下,台积电有能力将整体的产能利用率,保持在 70% 甚至更高的水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">此外,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>分析师 Brad Lin 发布报告指出,受益 ChatGPT 等相关应用,台积电将成为主要受惠者。他指出,生成式 AI 将带动部分种类的半导体需求,而台积电有望搭上生成式 AI 的结构性上升趋势。目前,数据中心 ( 包含超级电脑 ) 约占台积电近 10% 营收。生成式 AI 需要的 CPU、GPU、加速器一开始可能贡献 1-2% 营收,但乐观情境下占比有机会拉高至8%。</p><blockquote><strong>综合最近的财报数据来看,缺少竞争对手的台积电却进入了下行周期</strong></blockquote><p>按照台积电2022年第四季度数据,12月时台积电的销售额为1925.6亿新台币,环比下降13.5%,季度营收则是6255.32亿新台币,环比增速放缓至2%。而本季度的最新公布的营收数据显示,台积电2月合并营收约为1631.74亿新台币,较1月减少了18.4%。业内人士表示,这与全球消费电子需求出现明显波动有关,尤其是智能手机这个大主顾的出货量下滑,直接影响了上游半导体行业的生存状况。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>资深投资人也表示,购买台积电的最佳时机早已过去,在未来,台积电势必会缓慢下坡。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">为何市面上会出现这种观点?台积电到底怎么了?</p><h3>台积电没有想象力?</h3><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不得不承认,在半导体芯片的领域,台积电有着近乎垄断的地位,但是与其地位不匹配的,却是台积电所畅想的未来已经没有了想象力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国市场调查公司Gartner披露的2022年全球TOP 10半导体厂家的销售额排名速报中,冠军韩国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">三星电子</a>年销售额为656亿美元,亚军美国英特尔为584亿美元,季军韩国SK海力士为362亿美元。</p><p>这份榜单里没有把台积电等代工厂计算在内,但已经能够看出芯片赛道的特质之一,即马太效应突出。 排名靠前的头部企业坐拥海量资金,它们凭借已有资源持续巩固优势,从而获得更多的订单,吞下更大的蛋糕。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">仔细看排名第三的SK海力士,它与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>的销售额差距已经不小,而根据台积电2022年报,台积电去年一整年的销售额是758.8亿美元,约等于SK海力士的2.1倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>就像大量投资者说的那样,台积电是半导体先进制程实力最强大的公司,没有之一,除了三星以外,很难再找到其他可以与台积电抗衡的玩家,想要反超更是不太可能。</strong></p><p><strong>此外,美国拜登政府所推出的《芯片法案》补贴刚刚开放申请,便在业内引发了诸多质疑。台积电董事长刘德音直言,该法案部分条款过于苛刻,台积电方面“无法接受”;韩国方面也表示了强烈不满,当地时间3月30日,韩国政府表示,对于三星电子、SK海力士等韩国企业来说,美国的芯片补贴标准可能是一种“沉重负担”。</strong></p><p><strong>最后,我们还要考虑台积电还面临来自同赛道的激烈竞争。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 台积电已没想象力?市场预测Q1营收减幅恐大于预期</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 台积电已没想象力?市场预测Q1营收减幅恐大于预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-04-04 19:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>美东时间4月20日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>将发布Q1财报,<strong>公司预计2023年一季度营收约5126.9亿新台币至5372.5亿新台币,较2022年第四季下滑14.1%~18%。根据彭博一致预期,台积电一季度营收为5254.84亿新台币,调整后净利润为1967.14亿新台币,调整后EPS为7.61元新台币。</strong></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f265c01f18bee1cd923e5e0852bf02\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"315\"/></p><blockquote><strong>台积电:2023年前2个月收入总计3632.3亿新台币</strong></blockquote><p>数据显示:台积电1月营收2000.51亿新台币,同比增长16.2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/256a2fe8b29e7caf908d796521a325d7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"166\"/></p><p>2月净收入约1631.7亿新台币,同比增加11.1%</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/374f316058a5b745be03726ea8afb285\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"225\"/></p><p>回顾来看,今年1月份,台积电的营业收入约为2000.5亿新台币,这是台积电1月营收首度超过2000亿新台币,为历年同期新高,1月营收环比增长 3.9%,同比增长16.2%。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">不过彼时,台积电就曾预计一季度的整体表现不会太好。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">因终端市场需求持续疲软,以及客户进一步库存调整影响,台积电预计一季度营收约167亿至175亿美元,以新台币30.7元兑1美元汇率计算,营收金额约5126.9亿新台币至5372.5亿新台币,<strong>较2022年第四季下滑14.1%~18%</strong>。毛利率介于 53.5%~55.5%,营业利益率介于41.5%~43.5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>因此,扣除 1-2 月营 3632.25亿新台币,接下来的3月营收金额要超过1495亿元,才可达成财测目标。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong><span style=\"color:#923737;\" class=\"color-mark\">不过值得注意的是,受降价砍单潮影响,台积电首季营收季减幅度恐大于预期。</span></strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">进入2023年,消费终端市场疲软,随着客户和供应链持续采取因应措施,台积电预期半导体供应链库存将在2023上半年大幅降低,以平衡至更健康水平。若以美元计,台积电2023上半年营收预期将比2022年同期下降中至高个位数(mid-to-high single digit)百分比。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">此前,曾有市场消息称,台积电遭五大客户(AMD、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、联发科、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>)砍单,受库存调整状况比预期激烈影响,投片量减少并将部分产品所需芯片顺延至第 2 季拉货。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">另外据半导体设备商透露,受到终端市场供需反转影响,台积电一季度 7/6 纳米制程产能利用率跌势超乎预期,将拖累首季整体产能利用率大跌,但台积电仍会守住 70% 关卡。有市场分析,在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a> 3nm 制程工艺大单的推动下,台积电有能力将整体的产能利用率,保持在 70% 甚至更高的水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">此外,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>分析师 Brad Lin 发布报告指出,受益 ChatGPT 等相关应用,台积电将成为主要受惠者。他指出,生成式 AI 将带动部分种类的半导体需求,而台积电有望搭上生成式 AI 的结构性上升趋势。目前,数据中心 ( 包含超级电脑 ) 约占台积电近 10% 营收。生成式 AI 需要的 CPU、GPU、加速器一开始可能贡献 1-2% 营收,但乐观情境下占比有机会拉高至8%。</p><blockquote><strong>综合最近的财报数据来看,缺少竞争对手的台积电却进入了下行周期</strong></blockquote><p>按照台积电2022年第四季度数据,12月时台积电的销售额为1925.6亿新台币,环比下降13.5%,季度营收则是6255.32亿新台币,环比增速放缓至2%。而本季度的最新公布的营收数据显示,台积电2月合并营收约为1631.74亿新台币,较1月减少了18.4%。业内人士表示,这与全球消费电子需求出现明显波动有关,尤其是智能手机这个大主顾的出货量下滑,直接影响了上游半导体行业的生存状况。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>资深投资人也表示,购买台积电的最佳时机早已过去,在未来,台积电势必会缓慢下坡。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">为何市面上会出现这种观点?台积电到底怎么了?</p><h3>台积电没有想象力?</h3><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不得不承认,在半导体芯片的领域,台积电有着近乎垄断的地位,但是与其地位不匹配的,却是台积电所畅想的未来已经没有了想象力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国市场调查公司Gartner披露的2022年全球TOP 10半导体厂家的销售额排名速报中,冠军韩国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">三星电子</a>年销售额为656亿美元,亚军美国英特尔为584亿美元,季军韩国SK海力士为362亿美元。</p><p>这份榜单里没有把台积电等代工厂计算在内,但已经能够看出芯片赛道的特质之一,即马太效应突出。 排名靠前的头部企业坐拥海量资金,它们凭借已有资源持续巩固优势,从而获得更多的订单,吞下更大的蛋糕。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">仔细看排名第三的SK海力士,它与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>的销售额差距已经不小,而根据台积电2022年报,台积电去年一整年的销售额是758.8亿美元,约等于SK海力士的2.1倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>就像大量投资者说的那样,台积电是半导体先进制程实力最强大的公司,没有之一,除了三星以外,很难再找到其他可以与台积电抗衡的玩家,想要反超更是不太可能。</strong></p><p><strong>此外,美国拜登政府所推出的《芯片法案》补贴刚刚开放申请,便在业内引发了诸多质疑。台积电董事长刘德音直言,该法案部分条款过于苛刻,台积电方面“无法接受”;韩国方面也表示了强烈不满,当地时间3月30日,韩国政府表示,对于三星电子、SK海力士等韩国企业来说,美国的芯片补贴标准可能是一种“沉重负担”。</strong></p><p><strong>最后,我们还要考虑台积电还面临来自同赛道的激烈竞争。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b98f9e740cb6fb06990004c4ea7eae84","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0572940350.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A3 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3.9%,同比增长16.2%。不过彼时,台积电就曾预计一季度的整体表现不会太好。因终端市场需求持续疲软,以及客户进一步库存调整影响,台积电预计一季度营收约167亿至175亿美元,以新台币30.7元兑1美元汇率计算,营收金额约5126.9亿新台币至5372.5亿新台币,较2022年第四季下滑14.1%~18%。毛利率介于 53.5%~55.5%,营业利益率介于41.5%~43.5%。因此,扣除 1-2 月营 3632.25亿新台币,接下来的3月营收金额要超过1495亿元,才可达成财测目标。不过值得注意的是,受降价砍单潮影响,台积电首季营收季减幅度恐大于预期。进入2023年,消费终端市场疲软,随着客户和供应链持续采取因应措施,台积电预期半导体供应链库存将在2023上半年大幅降低,以平衡至更健康水平。若以美元计,台积电2023上半年营收预期将比2022年同期下降中至高个位数(mid-to-high single digit)百分比。此前,曾有市场消息称,台积电遭五大客户(AMD、英伟达、联发科、高通、英特尔)砍单,受库存调整状况比预期激烈影响,投片量减少并将部分产品所需芯片顺延至第 2 季拉货。另外据半导体设备商透露,受到终端市场供需反转影响,台积电一季度 7/6 纳米制程产能利用率跌势超乎预期,将拖累首季整体产能利用率大跌,但台积电仍会守住 70% 关卡。有市场分析,在苹果 3nm 制程工艺大单的推动下,台积电有能力将整体的产能利用率,保持在 70% 甚至更高的水平。此外,美国银行分析师 Brad Lin 发布报告指出,受益 ChatGPT 等相关应用,台积电将成为主要受惠者。他指出,生成式 AI 将带动部分种类的半导体需求,而台积电有望搭上生成式 AI 的结构性上升趋势。目前,数据中心 ( 包含超级电脑 ) 约占台积电近 10% 营收。生成式 AI 需要的 CPU、GPU、加速器一开始可能贡献 1-2% 营收,但乐观情境下占比有机会拉高至8%。综合最近的财报数据来看,缺少竞争对手的台积电却进入了下行周期按照台积电2022年第四季度数据,12月时台积电的销售额为1925.6亿新台币,环比下降13.5%,季度营收则是6255.32亿新台币,环比增速放缓至2%。而本季度的最新公布的营收数据显示,台积电2月合并营收约为1631.74亿新台币,较1月减少了18.4%。业内人士表示,这与全球消费电子需求出现明显波动有关,尤其是智能手机这个大主顾的出货量下滑,直接影响了上游半导体行业的生存状况。资深投资人也表示,购买台积电的最佳时机早已过去,在未来,台积电势必会缓慢下坡。为何市面上会出现这种观点?台积电到底怎么了?台积电没有想象力?不得不承认,在半导体芯片的领域,台积电有着近乎垄断的地位,但是与其地位不匹配的,却是台积电所畅想的未来已经没有了想象力。美国市场调查公司Gartner披露的2022年全球TOP 10半导体厂家的销售额排名速报中,冠军韩国三星电子年销售额为656亿美元,亚军美国英特尔为584亿美元,季军韩国SK海力士为362亿美元。这份榜单里没有把台积电等代工厂计算在内,但已经能够看出芯片赛道的特质之一,即马太效应突出。 排名靠前的头部企业坐拥海量资金,它们凭借已有资源持续巩固优势,从而获得更多的订单,吞下更大的蛋糕。仔细看排名第三的SK海力士,它与三星的销售额差距已经不小,而根据台积电2022年报,台积电去年一整年的销售额是758.8亿美元,约等于SK海力士的2.1倍。就像大量投资者说的那样,台积电是半导体先进制程实力最强大的公司,没有之一,除了三星以外,很难再找到其他可以与台积电抗衡的玩家,想要反超更是不太可能。此外,美国拜登政府所推出的《芯片法案》补贴刚刚开放申请,便在业内引发了诸多质疑。台积电董事长刘德音直言,该法案部分条款过于苛刻,台积电方面“无法接受”;韩国方面也表示了强烈不满,当地时间3月30日,韩国政府表示,对于三星电子、SK海力士等韩国企业来说,美国的芯片补贴标准可能是一种“沉重负担”。最后,我们还要考虑台积电还面临来自同赛道的激烈竞争。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03145":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"TWmain":0.9,"EWT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":653006118,"gmtCreate":1680276879534,"gmtModify":1680278939024,"author":{"id":"3550888125507139","authorId":"3550888125507139","name":"FunnyWong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3550888125507139","authorIdStr":"3550888125507139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"美元霸权正在倒塌中","listText":"美元霸权正在倒塌中","text":"美元霸权正在倒塌中","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653006118","repostId":"2323089425","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2323089425","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1680254215,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2323089425?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-31 17:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储资产负债表规模终于下降!但第二波银行挤兑开始?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2323089425","media":"金十数据","summary":"为了拯救银行业,美联储资产负债表再次膨胀,好消息是,上周资产规模终于下降了;坏消息是,美元短缺持续,第二波银行挤兑危机可能已经开始了……","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>为了拯救银行业,美联储资产负债表再次膨胀,好消息是,上周资产规模终于下降了;坏消息是,美元短缺持续,第二波银行挤兑危机可能已经开始了……</blockquote><p>拜登正呼吁监管机构收紧对中型银行的监管,提出了“<strong>推翻特朗普时代的规则</strong>”这一观点,主要是恢复对资产在1000亿美元至2500亿美元之间的银行的监管,包括流动性要求、加强压力测试和所谓的“生前遗嘱”。</p><p><em>注:所谓的生前遗嘱,指由金融稳定理事会(FSB)提出,要求<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>拟订并向监管机构提交,当其陷入实质性财务困境或经营失败时快速有序的处置方案。</em></p><p>白宫还呼吁:</p><blockquote>①资产在这一范围内的银行每年进行一次压力测试,而不是两年进行一次;②一旦银行资产达到1000亿美元,就缩短压力测试的时间;③加强监管工具,确保银行能够承受利率上升的影响。</blockquote><p>此外,白宫还呼吁联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)在不依赖社区银行的情况下补充资金。银行政策研究所则明确表示:</p><blockquote>“如果对SVB管理不善和监管不力的反应是对所有银行进行额外监管,这将对美国未来经济造成重大损失,这将是不幸的。”</blockquote><p>要求加强监管的呼声是在<strong>银行存款外流,以至于货币基金市场规模创下5.2万亿美元历史新高</strong>的情况下发出的。数据显示,上周有545亿美元的资金流入。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082cdde7b856f5574d006b6762b83a14\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"658\"/></p><p><strong>过去三周有3040亿美元的资金流入</strong>,创下了新冠疫情封锁危机以来的创纪录增幅。正如道明证券策略师戈德堡(Gennadiy Goldberg)在谈到上周的数据时所说:</p><blockquote>“这一数据与银行系统持续的存款外逃是一致的,储户通过货币基金间接将现金投资于政府债券,并避开银行信贷。这回答了‘钱离开银行系统后去了哪里?’的问题。”</blockquote><p>与此同时,美联储每周资产负债表也更新了,数据显示,<strong>其资产负债表上周实际上小幅收缩了278亿美元,其中美联储自身的QT(量化紧缩)计划缩减了100亿美元的美债和MBS(抵押贷款支持证券)。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/973365948743395579a82d27379216e2\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"636\"/></p><p>美联储实际准备金方面,<strong>其担保工具借款从1640亿美元小幅下降到1530亿美元</strong>,但仍然远高于SVB倒闭之前的45亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73e7240e5fad99f24134793ed450de51\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"658\"/></p><p>其构成也发生了变化,贴现窗口的使用减少了220亿美元至880亿美元,<strong>部分抵消了美联储全新的银行定期融资计划(BTFP)的增加,后者增加了107亿美元</strong>,从上周的537亿美元增加到644亿美元。与此同时,包括美联储向FDIC为解决SVB和签名银行问题而设立的过桥银行提供的贷款等其他信贷扩张则基本持平,为1801亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e470f4250a3d22f3c1d1966b21f01cd\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"664\"/></p><p>美联储的美元流动性掉期在过去一周仅维持在微不足道的5.85亿美元,其中1亿美元流向瑞士央行,48.75亿美元流向欧洲央行。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50758e31fed98dce53b4a1913b330171\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"664\"/></p><p>但是至少有一家银行在美联储的外国回购工具中储备了550亿美元的巨额资金。<strong>这意味着美元短缺仍在继续,好消息是至少这已经低于上周创纪录的600亿美元。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4024a3c8a9250aed5aefa2915b5aa5c7\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"648\"/></p><p>最后,根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">巴克莱银行</a>的说法,<strong>第二波银行挤兑浪潮已经开始</strong>,虽然燃烧速度较慢,但力度更大,因为“对价格敏感”的储户不再蛰伏,但也没有积极寻找存款的最佳地点。因此,要说银行业危机已经结束还为时尚早。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b901de82f7ec3d432c31a93f95918a97\" tg-width=\"1279\" tg-height=\"676\"/></p><p>尽管如此,还是有一些好消息的。虽然货币市场基金规模升至历史新高,但一周的增幅从上周的1174亿美元下降了近50%,只有660亿美元,这是自银行危机开始以来最慢的。换句话说,<strong>至少就目前而言,存款外流正在放缓。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储资产负债表规模终于下降!但第二波银行挤兑开始?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储资产负债表规模终于下降!但第二波银行挤兑开始?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-31 17:16 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109409&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>为了拯救银行业,美联储资产负债表再次膨胀,好消息是,上周资产规模终于下降了;坏消息是,美元短缺持续,第二波银行挤兑危机可能已经开始了……拜登正呼吁监管机构收紧对中型银行的监管,提出了“推翻特朗普时代的规则”这一观点,主要是恢复对资产在1000亿美元至2500亿美元之间的银行的监管,包括流动性要求、加强压力测试和所谓的“生前遗嘱”。注:所谓的生前遗嘱,指由金融稳定理事会(FSB)提出,要求金融机构...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109409&type=news&data_type=0\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86c31d7e54efed9192174b171199202b","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4588":"碎股","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109409&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2323089425","content_text":"为了拯救银行业,美联储资产负债表再次膨胀,好消息是,上周资产规模终于下降了;坏消息是,美元短缺持续,第二波银行挤兑危机可能已经开始了……拜登正呼吁监管机构收紧对中型银行的监管,提出了“推翻特朗普时代的规则”这一观点,主要是恢复对资产在1000亿美元至2500亿美元之间的银行的监管,包括流动性要求、加强压力测试和所谓的“生前遗嘱”。注:所谓的生前遗嘱,指由金融稳定理事会(FSB)提出,要求金融机构拟订并向监管机构提交,当其陷入实质性财务困境或经营失败时快速有序的处置方案。白宫还呼吁:①资产在这一范围内的银行每年进行一次压力测试,而不是两年进行一次;②一旦银行资产达到1000亿美元,就缩短压力测试的时间;③加强监管工具,确保银行能够承受利率上升的影响。此外,白宫还呼吁联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)在不依赖社区银行的情况下补充资金。银行政策研究所则明确表示:“如果对SVB管理不善和监管不力的反应是对所有银行进行额外监管,这将对美国未来经济造成重大损失,这将是不幸的。”要求加强监管的呼声是在银行存款外流,以至于货币基金市场规模创下5.2万亿美元历史新高的情况下发出的。数据显示,上周有545亿美元的资金流入。过去三周有3040亿美元的资金流入,创下了新冠疫情封锁危机以来的创纪录增幅。正如道明证券策略师戈德堡(Gennadiy Goldberg)在谈到上周的数据时所说:“这一数据与银行系统持续的存款外逃是一致的,储户通过货币基金间接将现金投资于政府债券,并避开银行信贷。这回答了‘钱离开银行系统后去了哪里?’的问题。”与此同时,美联储每周资产负债表也更新了,数据显示,其资产负债表上周实际上小幅收缩了278亿美元,其中美联储自身的QT(量化紧缩)计划缩减了100亿美元的美债和MBS(抵押贷款支持证券)。美联储实际准备金方面,其担保工具借款从1640亿美元小幅下降到1530亿美元,但仍然远高于SVB倒闭之前的45亿美元。其构成也发生了变化,贴现窗口的使用减少了220亿美元至880亿美元,部分抵消了美联储全新的银行定期融资计划(BTFP)的增加,后者增加了107亿美元,从上周的537亿美元增加到644亿美元。与此同时,包括美联储向FDIC为解决SVB和签名银行问题而设立的过桥银行提供的贷款等其他信贷扩张则基本持平,为1801亿美元。美联储的美元流动性掉期在过去一周仅维持在微不足道的5.85亿美元,其中1亿美元流向瑞士央行,48.75亿美元流向欧洲央行。但是至少有一家银行在美联储的外国回购工具中储备了550亿美元的巨额资金。这意味着美元短缺仍在继续,好消息是至少这已经低于上周创纪录的600亿美元。最后,根据巴克莱银行的说法,第二波银行挤兑浪潮已经开始,虽然燃烧速度较慢,但力度更大,因为“对价格敏感”的储户不再蛰伏,但也没有积极寻找存款的最佳地点。因此,要说银行业危机已经结束还为时尚早。尽管如此,还是有一些好消息的。虽然货币市场基金规模升至历史新高,但一周的增幅从上周的1174亿美元下降了近50%,只有660亿美元,这是自银行危机开始以来最慢的。换句话说,至少就目前而言,存款外流正在放缓。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SPY":1,"TQQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QID":0.6,".DJI":1,"DDM":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,".IXIC":1,"DJX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SDS":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":298066950332512,"gmtCreate":1713799058346,"gmtModify":1713799060270,"author":{"id":"3550888125507139","authorId":"3550888125507139","name":"FunnyWong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3550888125507139","authorIdStr":"3550888125507139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 这么简单的逻辑都看不懂? ai只有服务于实体经济形成正反馈提升生产效率和服务效率,然后不断充实数据大模型,给更多细分领域赋能,才是出路。美国欧洲一没有实体二技术壁垒逐渐被打破,且看中国一季度ai芯片进口量暴跌,英伟达还如何有未来?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 这么简单的逻辑都看不懂? ai只有服务于实体经济形成正反馈提升生产效率和服务效率,然后不断充实数据大模型,给更多细分领域赋能,才是出路。美国欧洲一没有实体二技术壁垒逐渐被打破,且看中国一季度ai芯片进口量暴跌,英伟达还如何有未来?","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这么简单的逻辑都看不懂? ai只有服务于实体经济形成正反馈提升生产效率和服务效率,然后不断充实数据大模型,给更多细分领域赋能,才是出路。美国欧洲一没有实体二技术壁垒逐渐被打破,且看中国一季度ai芯片进口量暴跌,英伟达还如何有未来?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/298066950332512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":574671235483944,"gmtCreate":1781314547269,"gmtModify":1781316322398,"author":{"id":"3550888125507139","authorId":"3550888125507139","name":"FunnyWong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3550888125507139","authorIdStr":"3550888125507139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"完全认同","listText":"完全认同","text":"完全认同","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/574671235483944","repostId":"2642537392","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2642537392","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1781227249,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2642537392?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-12 09:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"严防马斯克割韭菜!美参议员致信SEC:必须叫停SpaceX上市!(附12页信函)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2642537392","media":"市场资讯","summary":" 2026年6月11日,就在SpaceX距离正式登陆纳斯达克仅剩不到24小时之际,一封火药味十足的12页信函直抵美国证券交易委员会。她在信中措辞激烈地要求SEC:必须推迟SpaceX的IPO上市,这场“史上最大规模IPO”对投资者保护和市场完整性构成了前所未有的威胁。 这话听起来刺耳,但细看SpaceX的上市设计,你会发现沃伦的担忧绝非杞人忧天。但SpaceX反其道而行之,将30%的IPO份额分配给散户,金额高达225亿美元。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> 来源:财经会议圈</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/93/w550h343/20260612/c59a-ca4d9fe3735d970a16c53a05c0fe5f26.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Center\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\">拆解史上最大IPO背后的资本收割游戏</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 华盛顿的“拦路虎”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 2026年6月11日,就在SpaceX距离正式登陆<span>纳斯达克</span><span></span>仅剩不到24小时之际,一封火药味十足的12页信函直抵美国证券交易委员会(SEC)。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">发信人不是别人,正是以“华尔街死敌”著称的民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)。她在信中措辞激烈地要求SEC:</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">必须推迟SpaceX的IPO上市,这场“史上最大规模IPO”对投资者保护和市场完整性构成了前所未有的威胁。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 沃伦在信中写下了一句振聋发聩的警告:</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">“你们必须推迟该登记声明的生效时间。SpaceX的IPO创造了一个新问题:它正在操纵主要的股市指数,强迫数百万投资指数基金的普通散户在别无选择的情况下,被迫承担SpaceX的巨大风险。”</font></p>\n</blockquote>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 这话听起来刺耳,但细看SpaceX的上市设计,你会发现沃伦的担忧绝非杞人忧天。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/60/w550h310/20260612/bc00-d5d0086fb9102431b46de8278b95c3db.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 离谱的“一口价”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 135美元的爱买不买</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 传统IPO的玩法,大家都懂:投行先给一个价格区间,比如100-120美元,然后根据市场认购情况最终定价,这叫“价格发现”。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">但SpaceX不玩这一套。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 它直接甩出135美元/股的“一口价”,爱买不买。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 这在华尔街历史上极为罕见。一家公司估值高达1.75万亿-2万亿美元,却连最基本的市场博弈定价环节都省了,摆明了就是<font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">“我说多少就是多少”。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color0\">更离谱的是散户分配比例。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">美股常规IPO,散户份额通常只有<font cms-style=\"font-L color0\">5%-10%</font>,绝大多数份额都会留给长期持有的机构基石投资者。但SpaceX反其道而行之,将</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color0\">30%的IPO份额分配给散户</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">,金额高达<font cms-style=\"font-L color0\">225亿美元</font>。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 外界普遍吹捧这是“让利散户、共享红利”,但内行看门道:</p>\n<ul cms-style=\"ul\">\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">机构投资者追求长期稳定、风险可控,是市场的压舱石;</font></p>\n</li>\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">散户受情绪、舆论、偶像滤镜驱动,盲目跟风、追涨杀跌,波动率极高。</font></p>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 马斯克拥有庞大的粉丝群体,他们会自发造势、无脑买入,短期强行推高股价。但后续只要出现任何负面舆情,即便公司基本面毫无变化,股价也会因为散户情绪崩塌而大幅跳水。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">参考历史案例</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">Robinhood</a>曾将35%新股份额分给散户,上市后被散户爆炒至85美元,热度褪去后半年暴跌至15美元,高位接盘散户全线深套。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">SpaceX本次散户占比极高,未来必然复刻同款走势:</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">短期情绪拉涨,长期散户买单。</font></font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/143/w550h393/20260612/c13b-c92bf93c34bda9a4d248151d854a6d91.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 估值泡沫</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 市销率100倍的天方夜谭</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX的估值到底有多离谱?我们来看看硬数据。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">2025年,SpaceX全年营收187亿美元,估值却突破1.75万亿美元,市销率接近100倍。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 做个对比:</p>\n<ul cms-style=\"ul\">\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">AI龙头Anthropic估值近万亿美元,市销率仅21倍;</p>\n</li>\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">OpenAI市销率也只有34倍;</p>\n</li>\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">这两家AI企业的营收增速,远高于SpaceX,估值倍数却远低于它。</p>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">对比之下就能发现,所谓的AI泡沫,和SpaceX的估值泡沫相比,</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">根本不值一提</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">更夸张的是,招股书中宣称公司远期潜在市场规模(TAM)高达</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">28.5万亿美元</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">。这个数字是什么概念?远超中国全年20万亿级的GDP体量,完全脱离现实商业逻辑,纯属夸张造势。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 还有马斯克的薪酬解锁条件:授予其10亿股、价值约6000亿美元的股权,解锁要求包括:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">公司市值突破7.5万亿美元;</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">完成火星移民核心布局;</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">在火星落地100万常住人口。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 这在任何理性投资者看来,都是天方夜谭。但这就是投行的基本功:用专业模型、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">海量数据</a>、行业术语,把虚无缥缈的故事包装得逻辑自洽、看似可行。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> “包子式”包装</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 用星链包裹xAI的资本游戏</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 从一线ECM投行分析师的内行视角来看,SpaceX的估值逻辑本质上是一套“层层嵌套打包”模式:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">用盈利稳定、现金流优质的星链业务,包裹业绩惨淡、无法独立上市的xAI业务,形成“优质资产兜底、劣质资产挂靠”的包子式结构。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 来看2025年的真实财务数据:</p>\n<ul cms-style=\"ul\">\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">星链部门</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">:收入114亿美元,盈利72亿美元(唯一优质资产);</font></font></p>\n</li>\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">火箭发射部门</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">:收入41亿美元,亏损6.62亿美元;</font></font></p>\n</li>\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">xAI部门</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">:收入13亿美元,亏损130亿美元(纯纯的包袱)。</font></font></p>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 看似三大核心业务协同发力,实则只有星链是核心盈利资产,其余业务均为亏损包袱。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 这套打包模式还实现了“废物利用、税务套利”:xAI常年持续亏损,单独运营会导致大量税务抵扣额度作废。而通过整体打包上市,所有亏损额度均可并入主体财报,合法抵扣利润、降低整体税负。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">这就是华尔街的真实玩法:所谓的公允估值、专业模型,从来不是测算出来的,而是机构之间反复扯皮、博弈、妥协出来的“市场公约数”。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 纳斯达克的“规则特供”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 被动资金接盘局</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">为了确保上市成功,这次IPO的设计可谓是煞费苦心,其中最争议的莫过于</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">纳斯达克专门为SpaceX修改规则</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">规则修改内容</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">:</font>将纳入纳斯达克100指数的时间从3个月缩短至15天,而且是加权纳入(权重不合理拉高3倍)。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 这意味着什么?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">美国有大量被动指数基金、养老基金、401K退休金账户,会</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">自动买入</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">纳斯达克100成分股。也就是说,只要熬过15天,就可以用</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">老<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">百姓的养老金来给SpaceX接盘了</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">据测算,仅被动基金强制配置的资金就高达</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">100-200亿美元</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 精明的资金早已提前布局:提前低价建仓,等待指数纳入、被动资金进场后高位套现。叠加散户狂热抢购、主动基金布局、中东热钱涌入,上市初期流通股稀缺,股价必然被暴力拉升,制造极致的赚钱效应。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">这场狂欢的终极剧本,早已注定</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">:</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 上市拉升后,马斯克、早期股东、核心员工会通过新股增发、股票质押贷款等方式持续套现(马斯克历来偏好质押套现,<span>特斯拉</span><span></span>时期亦是如此)。内部利益方离场完毕后,股价终将回归基本面,所有浮亏、泡沫风险,全部由后进场的机构和散户承接。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">而这些机构资金,本质也是普通人的</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">养老钱、理财钱</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 星链业务遇瓶颈</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 对美军“趁火打劫”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 很多人不知道的是,星链业务已经触及瓶颈,连带火箭发射业务的未来订单也存疑。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">来看数据</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">:</font></p>\n<ul cms-style=\"ul\">\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">2025年一季度,星链用户规模1030万,比去年翻了一倍,但前一年可是翻了三倍的,</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">增速明显下滑</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">;</font></font></p>\n</li>\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">更可怕的是增长是怎么来的?平均每用户收入(ARPU)从2023年的99美元/月降到2024年的91美元,再降到2025年的80美元,到2025年一季度已经</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">暴降至66美元</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">。</font></font></p>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 完全是靠降价换量、打价格战!</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 原因不难理解:如果你住在纽约、东京、上海,根本不会用星链。星链就是给偏远地区用的,但偏远地区之所以偏远,就是因为人少。To C端增长见顶了。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">那怎么办?只能对军方涨价。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">前段时间美军在战场大量使用名为“卢卡斯”的一次性无人机,内置星链终端。前线激战正酣,SpaceX突然要求将网络费用</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">翻5倍</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">,从原先的5000美元/月直接涨到25000美元/月。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 理由是:你原本买的是“地面套餐”,实际用在飞行器上,就得按“飞行器套餐”付款。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 结果服软的居然是美军!媒体询问负责人,他只说SpaceX依然是“稳固可靠的长期合作伙伴”。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">这件事充分说明:</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">SpaceX已经具备对军方的议价能力,但这也暴露出其实体业务增长乏力的尴尬现实。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 沃伦的三大“地雷”指控</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 沃伦在致SEC的信中,详细列举了SpaceX在财务和治理上的三大“地雷”:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> 1. xAI收购案可能存在会计造假或估值误导</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX收购马斯克另一家公司xAI的过程中,交易定价是否公允?是否存在通过关联交易转移利益?这些问题都需要SEC彻查。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> 2. 马斯克个人利益与公司利益存在严重冲突</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 马斯克同时是SpaceX和xAI的大股东,两家公司之间的交易,本质上是“左手倒右手”。这种利益输送的风险,在IPO招股书中是否被充分披露?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> 3. 马斯克在公司内部拥有独断专行的权力,缺乏有效制衡</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">目前马斯克手握SpaceX </font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">82%的投票权</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">,意味着这家近2万亿估值的行业巨头,完全由他一人掌控,没有任何机构或股东能够制衡、干预。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">成也创始人,险也创始人。</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"> 过去两年,马斯克极度痴迷AI和太空数据中心赛道,这意味着未来很长一段时间,SpaceX将持续投入巨额资本用于新业务研发和布局,重资产投入之下,战略失误、投入失败的风险极高。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 资本慌乱</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 为什么急着上市?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 很多人会问:SpaceX明明可以不用上市,为什么马斯克这么着急?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">答案很简单:</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">这不是企业发展需要,而是资本的集体慌乱。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">原因一:全球风投行业迎来数十年最严峻的退出危机</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 世界经济论坛5月发布的最新数据显示:</p>\n<ul cms-style=\"ul\">\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">当前全球未上市的独角兽企业中,20%已成立超15年,59%已成立超10年;</p>\n</li>\n<li cms-style=\"li\">\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">企业从种子轮到首轮退出的周期,相比2022年拉长了45%。</p>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 行业常规规则里,风投基金对LP的承诺退出周期仅为10年。这意味着,超半数独角兽早已超出约定退出期限,大量风投资金长期被套牢。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">原因二:AI行业极度烧钱,融资窗口期短暂</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> OpenAI去年亏损超80亿美元,Anthropic去年亏损超30亿美元,且两家企业未来数年仍将持续大额烧钱。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">业内普遍认为,</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">AI行业泡沫已然存在</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">,只是没人能精准预判破裂时间。马斯克急于落地IPO,就是为了抢占高位窗口期,锁定万亿估值,提前规避后续市场下跌风险。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">原因三:抢占AI资本红利的末班车</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 当下是全球市场对AI概念溢价最高、资金最狂热的阶段。SpaceX抢先完成IPO,能够率先吸干华尔街所有AI+太空赛道的增量资金。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">高端资本博弈向来朴素:先到先得、先上市先收割。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 三个阶段:看清洗牌时刻</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX上市必须看准三个阶段:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> 第一阶段:看上市当天能否不破发</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 如果流通盘这么小(仅释放5%股份)、承销团这么强、机构认购这么热还能破发,说明市场其实已经虚透了。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> 第二阶段:看上市后15到30天</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 能否顺利纳入纳斯达克100指数,把筹码成功交给被动基金(养老金)。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> 第三阶段:看半年后大股东解禁</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 5%的流通比例意味着95%的股份在IPO时处于锁定状态。半年后(12月初),这些股份将解除锁定。那些在几十亿、几百亿估值时入场的早期股东,将面临十几倍、几十倍甚至上百倍的暴利退出机会。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">那将是怎样的一场腥风血雨?</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 谁是最大的赢家?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 这场顶级资本盛宴里,收益圈层极度分化。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">真正的赢家只有三类:</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">持股42%的马斯克本人</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">——上市后财富将突破万亿级,成为全球首位万亿富翁;</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">合计持股10%-15%的公司核心员工</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">——早期入局,成本极低;</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">早期入局的风投机构与股东</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">——终于等到退出时刻。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">除此之外,21家承销投行是最大的隐形赢家。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 今年投行行业普遍低迷、降薪裁员,而SpaceX这一个超级项目,就能让所有参与投行团队超额盈利。后续还能持续解锁二级市场增发、可转债、并购交易、大宗交易、股票回购等持续业务,堪称投行的“年度飞升项目”,一年顶往年五年收益。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">而输家呢?</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 所有脱离基本面的高估值狂欢,最终都会回归均值。狂欢落幕之后,永远是后进场的普通人承担所有风险。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 历史的轮回</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 运河狂热与太空泡沫</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 最后,让我们用一个经典历史案例帮大家看懂本质。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">19世纪全球掀起运河狂热</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">,苏伊士运河、巴拿马运河开凿前夕,无数法国中产疯狂募资入局。最终巴拿马运河公司1889年破产,初代投资者尽数血本无归。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">但运河最终成功通航,彻底改写了全球贸易格局,造福了后续上百年的全球经济和无数行业。</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">可初代的基建投资者,几乎没有吃到任何时代红利。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 如今的SpaceX、追捧它的华尔街资本,何尝不是当年的运河狂热?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">我从不否认SpaceX的伟大,也不否认太空经济的星辰大海,但作为普通投资者,我们一定要克制对个人英雄主义的崇拜、对科幻浪漫叙事的盲从。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\"> 沃伦的警告,不该被忽视</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX是实体产业的颠覆者,却是资本市场的收割者。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 它用极致务实打破了传统<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000901\">航天</a>的暴利与僵化,却用极致资本套路,打造了一场属于顶级圈层的泡沫盛宴。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">伊丽莎白·沃伦的警告,不该被忽视。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SEC是否会在政治压力下叫停这场“资本狂欢”?马斯克将如何反击这位“死对头”的狙击?周五的上市计划是否会突遭变数?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 这一切,都将在未来48小时内揭晓。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 但无论结果如何,普通投资者都应该记住一句话:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">所有脱离基本面的高估值狂欢,最终都会回归均值。狂欢落幕之后,永远是后进场的普通人承担所有风险。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 这是一封美国参议院银行、住房与城市事务委员会成员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)于2026年6月9日写给美国证券交易委员会(SEC)主席保罗·阿特金斯(Paul Atkins)的信函,要求SEC推迟SpaceX的IPO注册声明生效。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 以下是全文翻译:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">美国参议院</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">银行、住房与城市事务委员会</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">华盛顿特区 20510-6075</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 2026年6月9日</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 尊敬的保罗·阿特金斯主席: 美国证券交易委员会 东北F街100号 华盛顿特区 20549</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 阿特金斯主席:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 我怀着极度关切的心情,就太空探索技术公司(Space Exploration Technologies Corp.,简称“SpaceX”)即将进行的首次公开募股(IPO)致函您。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 据报道,由埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)拥有的航空<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00031\">航天</a>和人工智能公司SpaceX,计划在本月晚些时候以高达2万亿美元的估值向投资者募集高达750亿美元——这将使其成为“史上最大规模的股市首秀”。然而,此次IPO似乎对普通投资者及其退休储蓄构成重大风险,同时为SpaceX内部人士(包括特朗普政府高级官员)带来巨大利益。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 与SpaceX公开募股相关的风险源于该公司向证券交易委员会(“SEC”或“委员会”)提交的备案文件及其他公开报道中揭示的一系列问题:首先,SpaceX预计将以约100倍2025年营收的价格发行股票——这一估值倍数几乎史无前例,需要投资者对AI和太空两个领域的诸多假设抱以极大信心;其次,非传统的公司治理结构将使SpaceX首席执行官埃隆·马斯克拥有前所未有的权力,而投资者获得的权利将远低于传统公开股票购买者通常享有的权利;第三,主要股指提供商正在改写规则,为SpaceX快速进入其指数——以及驱动数百万美国人退休储蓄的投资基金——铺平道路。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 最终的结果可能是灾难性的:如果SpaceX的估值崩溃,退休人员和家庭的投资者账户将遭受损失,且对任何公司不当行为几乎没有追索权,而地球上最富有的人则因缺乏监管而变得更加富有。SEC的核心使命是保护投资者,维护公平、有序和高效的市场。鉴于史上最大规模IPO对投资者保护和市场诚信构成的前所未有的威胁,您必须推迟任何加速注册声明生效的行为。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 在允许公司向公众出售其股票之前,委员会必须考虑“公共利益和投资者保护”。在此过程中,委员会可以审查公司的初步招股说明书,以“确认其是否符合适用的会计标准和联邦证券法律法规的披露要求”。仅SpaceX IPO的巨大规模,在正常情况下就足以证明SEC进行仔细审查和关注投资者需求的合理性。但这些并非正常情况:诸多额外因素加剧了担忧,并要求SEC采取行动以履行其投资者保护和市场诚信职责,即推迟注册声明的生效。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">SpaceX的估值与会计</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX股票的价值——无论是现在还是可预见的未来——似乎建立在一系列独特的投机性事件之上。据《金融时报》报道,SpaceX目前的财务状况“对于计算公司价值毫无用处”,部分原因是评估尚不存在的活动的固有挑战,但这些活动可能成为一家使命崇高(“将意识之光延伸到星辰”)的公司增长的一部分。据晨星(Morningstar)的一份报告,SpaceX的价值可能不到其1.75万亿美元估值的一半。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 事实上,“以《金融时报》此前报道的1.75万亿美元估值计算,SpaceX将成为美国股市第七大公司。然而,按每年190亿美元的营收排名,它仅位列第200位,与幸运符麦片制造商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GIS\">通用磨坊</a>(General Mills)相当。”市场“从未有过对一只如此投机却又如此庞大的股票进行定价的先例”,“最大的问题是,高达1.8万亿美元的估值能否在公开市场中持续”。部分问题在于准确评估SpaceX的崇高目标(包括太空旅行和星际居住)是不可能的。但这也是该公司持续亏损和未能实现过去目标的产物。因此,市场分析师对其目标估值背后的数学逻辑提出了质疑,称之为“荒谬的”、“烟幕弹式的会计”和“真正脱离现实的”。如果该估值无法持续,选择以高估值买入的投资者——或因投资于指数基金而被迫买入的投资者,而这些基金本身基于已修改规则以纳入SpaceX的指数——将为此付出代价。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 此外,IPO的估值部分由SpaceX与xAI的2026年合并决定。由于埃隆·马斯克身处交易双方,“他亲自与自己谈判交易,自己设定相对估值,自己签署合并协议,自己完成交易,然后才告知董事会和股东”。这让马斯克有机会将xAI的估值抬高到超过其资产价值的水平——换句话说,单方面决定自己交易的价值——并将其纳入即将进行的IPO。SEC应评估SpaceX与xAI之间(以及埃隆·马斯克控制的其他公司组成的完整网络)的交易和关系是否因不准确或误导性的会计或估值而对投资者构成风险。鉴于众多主动和被动投资者将暴露于SpaceX的风险之下,缺乏基本面支撑的估值可能威胁我们资本市场的完整性和稳定性。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX-xAI合并是马斯克先生控制的不同商业实体之间一系列共同控制交易中的一例——引发了关于SpaceX未来计划与其控制的公司进行整合的任何疑问。例如,正如商业媒体推测的那样,如果特斯拉(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>)和SpaceX合并,可能立即触发马斯克先生1万亿美元的特斯拉薪酬方案,因为控制权变更条款将取消此前解锁股票所需的业绩条件。将这些新的特斯拉股票转换为新的SpaceX股票可能对SpaceX股东产生重大影响。如果确实存在将特斯拉和SpaceX合并的计划,此类计划应向潜在投资者披露,因为它们应被视为对公司业务战略和公开募股后续价值具有重大重要性的事项。鉴于SpaceX的S-1备案文件未提及此类合并对SpaceX估值的影响——尽管它承认与马斯克先生其他企业的业务交易可能发生——SEC应在加速SpaceX注册声明生效之前,对马斯克先生关于其众多强大企业所有权结构的未来意图进行彻底调查。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">IPO后的公司治理</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> IPO还引发担忧,因为SpaceX的IPO后公司治理结构侵蚀了基本的股东权利,并将非同寻常的公司权力授予马斯克先生。公开交易公司理应对其股东负责。SpaceX的IPO将颠覆这一模式,股东提供数十亿美元的新资本,却没有任何对马斯克先生或公司领导层的问责措施,因为公司“结合了超级投票权股票、强制仲裁、更严格的股东提案规则以及德克萨斯州公司法,将控制权赋予SpaceX首席执行官埃隆·马斯克和其他内部人士。SpaceX还将限制投资者挑战管理层、在法庭起诉以及强制召开代理权争夺的能力”。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 正如领先的公司法学者所言,“即使是马斯克的崇拜者,也应该对SpaceX的公司治理感到不安”。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX的初步招股说明书表明,公司将维持双重股权结构,马斯克先生持有的每一股股票的投票权是向公众发售的每一股股票的10倍。这种不对称性将剥夺股东对重大公司决策(如收购、剥离或重组)的任何权力。正如公司招股说明书所承认的,“马斯克先生将能够控制需要股东批准的事项的结果”。此外,拟议的公司治理结构实质上剥夺了董事会的管理公司权力,使其无法解雇首席执行官:“马斯克只能由B类股东多数投票罢免董事长或首席执行官——而他个人控制该股票类别93.6%的股份——实际上保证了他的职位。”正如《金融时报》社论版所言,“传统的治理制衡几乎完全缺失……[马斯克]将对投票权和董事会拥有几乎不可挑战的控制权”。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 问题更加复杂的是,“在其他非典型安排中,SpaceX不计划让其董事会多数成员为独立董事”,包括“不使用独立董事委员会来决定高管薪酬,这是大多数公司的做法”。马斯克的地位很可能因其在董事会中强大朋友的存在而得到巩固,包括安东尼奥·格拉西亚斯(Antonio Gracias)和史蒂夫·尤尔韦森(Steve Jurvetson)。据报道,格拉西亚斯先生和尤尔韦森先生与马斯克先生私交甚密,并且是GPS信号市场的竞争对手。这引发了公司治理担忧,并存在违反反垄断法禁止关联董事(即公司董事同时担任其竞争对手董事会成员)的风险。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX还试图限制股东通过法院获得法律救济的途径。根据其S-1备案文件,SpaceX计划通过强制大多数股东诉讼进入仲裁程序,使马斯克免受法律风险——这是一个不公开且系统性地偏向公司利益的过程。重要的是,仲裁将是联邦证券法下诉讼的唯一选择,因为德克萨斯州商业法院——SpaceX首选的法律争议审理地——对相关联邦证券法没有管辖权,这与S-1中声称该领域法律“尚未确定”的说法相反。虽然该条款最终可能无法执行,但SEC最近推翻了一项长期立场,即IPO中的强制仲裁条款不符合“公共利益和投资者保护”,这才使这种尝试成为可能。此外,“SpaceX选择了一项条款,仅允许持有公司3%或以上股份的股东提起所谓的‘派生’诉讼,代表公司起诉董事会或首席执行官——就像在更利于股东的特拉华州,一位小投资者提起的特斯拉薪酬投诉那样。如果SpaceX达到预期的1.75万亿美元估值,起诉的股东将需要至少525亿美元的股份。”SpaceX还打算通过提高股东提案门槛来保护马斯克对公司的单方面控制权,禁止其大多数投资者强制在股东大会上进行投票。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 马斯克先生对SpaceX的权力程度尤其令人担忧,因为他的利益与SpaceX股东和投资者的利益之间不可避免地会产生冲突。公司招股说明书也承认了这一点:在向SEC提交的修订文件中,SpaceX承认,“未来可能在我们与马斯克先生及其拥有或关联的实体之间,就业务交易、潜在竞争活动或其他商业机会等方面产生利益冲突。在正常业务过程中,我们与其中一些公司进行了各种交易。”它继续写道:“马斯克先生或其关联方可能不时了解到某些商业机会(如收购机会或技术发展),并可能将这些机会导向他们投资的其他企业,在这种情况下,[投资者]可能无法了解或无法追求此类机会。”招股说明书还详细说明了马斯克先生——作为对SpaceX负有受托责任的公司董事——如何也可能拥有与SpaceX竞争的其他公司的资产:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 根据我们的章程,马斯克先生及其关联方不受限制地拥有与我们直接或间接竞争的资产或从事业务,并且没有义务避免从事与我们相同或类似的业务活动或业务线,包括被视为与我们竞争的业务活动或业务线,或与我们的任何客户或供应商开展业务。此外,我们过去曾与马斯克先生关联的实体进行交易,未来也可能继续如此。我们可能选择此类交易,而非追求其他一些股东可能更喜欢或可能比我们选择追求的机会更具增值性的机会。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX招股说明书的这些条款表明,其IPO将是史上规模最大的,也可能拥有史上最被操纵的公司结构。如果IPO以其当前形式获批,马斯克在SpaceX拥有的独特且不受约束的权力将对投资者、市场和公众造成严重担忧。此次IPO最终为未来IPO树立了危险的先例。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">对被动投资者和资本市场的影响</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 关于SpaceX的估值和公司治理担忧,如果其IPO注册声明的生效被加速,将对市场诚信产生重大担忧。对于挑选和选择特定投资的投资者,他们至少能够避免投资于从事风险或不公平行为的公司。但SpaceX的IPO创造了一个新的担忧:主要股市指数正在被操纵,以迫使指数基金中的数百万投资者——这是一种通常成本较低、对散户投资者有吸引力的投资选择——投资SpaceX,并在没有选择的情况下面临SpaceX的重大风险。“分析师估计,在纳入后的几个月内,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>、纳斯达克100和罗素1000追踪器将保守地强制买入150亿至300亿美元的SpaceX股票,更激进的流通股权重情景则会高得多”。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 除上述公开交易股票向散户投资者的超额分配外,SpaceX的IPO还将使被动和主动投资者都面临重大风险。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 主要股指有一套明确的规则来确定是否以及何时纳入新公司。这些规则为股票购买者提供了重要的投资者保护,使其免受新上市IPO的波动性和不确定性影响,并允许市场发现机制在指数纳入之前为公开公司建立公平价格。这些规则通常包括成熟度和可行性要求。例如,标普500要求公司在指数纳入前至少公开交易12个月,并且至少连续四个季度实现盈利。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 但据报道,SpaceX已游说指数提供商改变其指数纳入规则。指数提供商也照办了,进行了修改,使SpaceX等大型科技公司更容易被快速纳入被动投资者的投资组合。4月,标普<span>道琼斯</span><span></span>指数公司宣布正在考虑修改规则,以便更容易让“超大市值”(MegaCap)公司——即股市中最大的公司——快速进入其指数。仅就标普500而言,该公司正在考虑的修改包括将标准的12个月IPO后等待期缩短至6个月,取消标准的10%流通股权要求,并豁免超大市值公司满足所有其他公司都需要满足才能符合资格的财务可行性标准。2026年6月4日,该公司宣布放弃拟议的修改,声明“不应仅基于市值授予财务可行性、成熟度和IWF(可投资权重因子)要求的例外”。除标普道琼斯指数外,尚无关于主要指数撤销为SpaceX做出的修改和例外的大规模报道。2026年5月1日,纳斯达克100实施了一项新的“快速进入”规则,允许按市值排名前40的公司在上市第七天就有资格被纳入。富时罗素(FTSE Russell)也效仿了。正如《华尔街日报》报道的那样,该公司“修改了规则,使新上市的大型公司更容易进入其美国指数,为被动投资者快速获取SpaceX和其他备受瞩目的上市公司的股票打开了大门”。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 指数提供商对新公开募股的不同处理方式可能导致投资者对股票敞口的预期出现差异。此外,正如一位分析师警告的那样,这些不断变化的政策“可能在‘被动’指数之间造成显著的回报差异”。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 对于投资于为SpaceX放宽规则的指数基金的投资者,这些修改可能导致他们被迫购买数十亿美元的SpaceX股票,而他们对此没有任何发言权。突然间,美国人的退休储蓄或养老金可能与SpaceX的市值挂钩。股票的普遍性将人为推高其价值,而SpaceX内部人士——得益于允许他们比往常更早出售股票的特殊规则——将能够迅速抛售其股份,让散户投资者接盘。结果可能是巨大的财富向上再分配——即使SpaceX没有盈利。简而言之,这些修改可能使一项金融工程计划得以实施,该计划操纵美国资本市场以 favor 马斯克先生及其盟友。正如一位《金融时报》评论员所言,“为什么标普道琼斯指数公司……似乎在 flirt with 一项放宽规则的修改,以允许埃隆·马斯克的卫星到AI公司快速进入?”这是SEC和指数提供商应该向公众回答的问题。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 有利于SpaceX的修改不仅限于指数——大型资产管理公司也在做出改变。2026年6月4日,管理着16.4万亿美元资产的富达投资(Fidelity Investments)“将其SpaceX IPO准入要求从高达50万美元大幅削减至仅2,000美元”,为历史上最大的股票首秀之一向数百万散户投资者敞开了大门。因此,SpaceX新IPO的风险不仅限于大型机构投资者,还将波及小型个人投资者,因为此次IPO似乎缺乏通常存在的许多投资者和市场保护。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 在考虑SpaceX IPO对投资者的风险时,您还必须考虑到,这些风险将因SpaceX股票被纳入主要指数以及通过主要资产管理公司和投资顾问向散户投资者开放而立即被放大。这创造了一种情景:当前SpaceX股东——包括特朗普政府高级官员——可以在危及美国投资者和我们金融稳定的同时使自己致富。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">其他需要推迟生效的问题</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 除关于SpaceX财务披露、公司治理以及操纵股市指数以利于自身的诸多担忧外,还有三个其他考虑因素需要推迟公司注册文件的生效,并要求SEC进行彻底调查。首先,存在潜在证券法违规的问题,即关于SpaceX初始私人备案的泄露。早在SpaceX于2026年4月1日向SEC提交保密注册声明之前,新闻报道就携带了关于招股说明书内容的信息,并引发了投资者兴趣。如果这些泄露是SpaceX为在IPO前增加市场兴趣而进行的协调尝试的结果,可能构成证券法第5条的违规,该条款禁止“抢跑”(gun-jumping)——在提供注册声明之前出售或宣传股票。法律规定,“除非注册声明对某种证券已生效,否则任何人直接或间接……使用州际贸易或邮件的任何交通或通讯手段或工具,通过任何招股说明书或其他方式出售该证券,均属违法。”由于SpaceX在任何注册声明之前就已受到关于上市的非同寻常的公众关注,SEC应加强对SpaceX IPO策略的审查,以确保公司未违反第5条。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 其次,存在马斯克先生在X上发布关于公司的声明所引发的市场混乱问题——X是他也拥有的社交媒体平台,现在属于SpaceX的xAI部门。一些金融记者认为,这些声明与SpaceX公开备案文件中的业务信息存在实质性矛盾。无论这些偏差是否重大,马斯克先生以在X上凭一时兴起发布公开声明而闻名,这些声明可以瞬间撼动市场。他还以尽管未实现宏大的业务目标却兑现巨额薪酬方案而闻名。如果这种行为模式持续下去,将对SpaceX的可信度产生重大怀疑,以及其备案的IPO是否充分告知投资者与马斯克先生相关的风险。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 关于证券法违规和马斯克先生矛盾声明的担忧,足以让SEC推迟SpaceX注册声明的生效,并允许市场有一段冷静期,以更彻底地评估SpaceX IPO的合理性。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">结论与问题</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX的IPO似乎为股东和未来公开公司上市呈现了独特且开创先例的风险。公司的会计和财务报告存在令人不安的漏洞,并被今年早些时候发生的大规模且不透明的xAI合并所笼罩。公司的公司治理结构将独特的权力授予其首席执行官,并严重限制股东权利。主要股指在放弃旧规则或制定新规则以允许SpaceX纳入方面的共谋,意味着数十亿美元的被动投资将被迫进入该公司,使退休人员和普通投资者面临风险。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 简而言之,投资者和公众对SpaceX及其计划如何使用其寻求募集的数十亿美元存在众多未解答的重大问题。SEC不应在未经严格审查SpaceX财务报表、公司治理结构及其可能对散户投资者(包括通过指数基金)的影响的情况下,加速SpaceX注册声明的生效。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 我要求您在2026年6月23日之前,对以下问题提供详细答复:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SEC打算如何评估SpaceX关于其估值的主张,基于其对太空旅行、多行星居住和“将意识之光延伸到星辰”等主张?请包括关于以下方面的具体信息: a. 任何潜在的高估来源 b. SpaceX提出的估值(1.75万亿美元)与其营收(每年190亿美元)之间的差异</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SEC确保投资者获得清晰准确披露的计划是什么,尽管存在复杂的会计问题?请提供关于以下方面的具体信息: a. 近期xAI收购的估值 b. 联合创始人离职的影响 c. SpaceX各子公司(包括发射、星链和xAI)的营收和亏损,包括星链用户群的行业标准信息 d. 承销银行之间任何潜在的利益冲突 e. SpaceX审计师的严谨性和独立性,包括任何潜在的利益冲突 f. 任何可能对SpaceX股票价值产生重大影响的预期未来合并或重大交易</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SEC是否认为,从保密备案草案泄露的信息已实质性增加了市场对SpaceX首次公开募股的兴趣?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 鉴于有报道称保密备案草案的信息被不当泄露,可能构成“抢跑”,SEC是否考虑过推迟SpaceX的首次公开募股?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SEC在评估IPO时,计划如何考虑SpaceX的公司结构——该结构将几乎完全的控制权授予一个人?请提供关于以下方面的具体信息: a. 其双重股权结构 b. 埃隆·马斯克对投票权的控制 c. 董事会成员的独立性,鉴于他们与控股股东马斯克先生的个人和业务关系 d. SpaceX与马斯克先生控制的其他实体之间潜在的利益冲突交易</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SEC计划如何保护被动投资者免受SpaceX股票的风险,包括: a. 机构投资者(如养老基金),以及 b. 被动指数基金的股东</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SEC是否会寻求SpaceX关于州法院对《交易法》索赔管辖权结论的法律依据?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 此致</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 伊丽莎白·沃伦 银行、住房与城市事务委员会 资深成员(Ranking Member)</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIMB\">TIM</a> SCOTT SOUTH CAROLINA, CHAIRMAN</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> ELIZABETH WARREN MASSACHUSETTS, RANKING MEMBER</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> MIKE CRAPO, IDAHO</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> JACK REED, RHODE ISLAND</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> MIKE ROUNDS, SOUTH DAKOTA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> MARK R. WARNER, VIRGINIA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> THOM TILLIS, NORTH CAROLINA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> CHRIS VAN HOLLEN, MARYLAND</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> JOHN KENNEDY, LOUISIANA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO, NEVADA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> BILL HAGERTY, TENNESSEE</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> TINA SMITH, MINNESOTA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> CYNTHIA LUMMIS, WYOMING</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> RAPHAEL G. WARNOCK, GEORGIA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> KATIE BOYD BRITT, ALABAMA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> ANDY KIM, NEW JERSEY</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> PETE RICKETTS, NEBRASKA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> RUBEN GALLEGO, ARIZONA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> JIM BANKS, INDIANA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> LISA BLUNT ROCHESTER, DELAWARE</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> KEVIN CRAMER, NORTH DAKOTA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> ANGELA D. ALSOBROOKS, MARYLAND</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> BERNIE MORENO, OHIO</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> DAVID McCORMICK, PENNSYLVANIA</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> JANIE FAULKNER, STAFF DIRECTOR</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> JON DONENBERG, DEMOCRATIC STAFF DIRECTOR</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">United States Senate</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">COMMITTEE ON BANKING, HOUSING, AND URBAN AFFAIRS</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">WASHINGTON, DC 20510-6075</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> June 9, 2026</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> The Honorable Paul Atkins</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Chair</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 100 F Street NE</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Washington, DC 20549</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Dear Chair Atkins,</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> I write with extreme concern regarding the upcoming initial public offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (“SpaceX”). According to reports, SpaceX, an aerospace and artificial intelligence company owned by Elon Musk, seeks to target a valuation of upwards of $2 trillion and raise up to $75 billion from investors in its offering later this month – making it “the largest stock-market debut in history.” However, this IPO appears to present significant risks to ordinary investors and their retirement savings – while carrying enormous advantages for SpaceX insiders, including senior Trump Administration officials.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> The risks associated with SpaceX‘s public offering are caused by a confluence of concerns revealed by the company’s filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC,” or “the Commission”) and other public reporting: first, “SpaceX is expected to offer stock at roughly 100 times 2025 revenue — a valuation multiple with little precedent, and one that requires numerous leaps of faith around both the AI and space theses;” second, a non-traditional governance structure that will leave SpaceX‘s CEO, Elon Musk, with an unprecedented level of power, and investors with significantly fewer rights than those traditionally offered to purchasers of public shares; and third, major stock index providers rewriting their rules to fast track SpaceX’s entry into their indexes — and into the investment funds that power millions of Americans‘ retirement savings.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> The net result could be disastrous: a scenario where retirees‘ and families’ investment accounts take a hit if SpaceX‘s valuation falters, with little recourse for any corporate misconduct, while the wealthiest man on earth becomes even wealthier due to a lack of oversight. The SEC’s core mission is to protect investors and maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets. Given the unprecedented threats to investor protection and market integrity posed by the biggest IPO in history, you must delay any eventual acceleration of the registration statement‘s effectiveness accordingly. Before the company is allowed to go public, the SEC must investigate whether index funds and other financial entities involved in SpaceX’s IPO are adequately protecting investors, and the company must fill disclosure gaps related to valuation, ensure risks and details related to its concentrated governance structure are clear to investors, and abandon mandatory arbitration to provide shareholders whose rights are otherwise gutted in this structure a minimum avenue for recourse.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> SpaceX‘s IPO Process and the SEC’s Role</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX has been privately held since its founding by Elon Musk in 2002, raising approximately $9 billion in equity capital through private markets. Remaining private has allowed Mr. Musk to retain extensive control over the company. Mr. Musk, in addition to being the founder, serves as Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer, and Chairman of the Board, in addition to being the controlling shareholder. Earlier this year, SpaceX combined with another privately held company founded and controlled by Mr. Musk, xAI, in “the biggest merger in history... to create a $1.25 trillion giant.” SpaceX filed its IPO registration statement with the SEC on May 20, 2026, having reportedly filed a confidential registration around April 1, 2026. If the SpaceX IPO goes through at the target valuations, the “blockbuster listing will unlock vast new wealth for SpaceX executives and investors ... But all of the holdings pale in comparison to the riches that Musk will unlock. He holds [vested shares] which could be worth about $700bn. A successful listing could see him become the world‘s first trillionaire.”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Before allowing a company to sell its shares to the public, the Commission is required to consider “the public interest and the protection of investors.” In so doing, the Commission may review the company‘s preliminary prospectus “for compliance with the applicable accounting standards and the disclosure requirements of the federal securities laws and regulations.” The massive size of the SpaceX IPO alone, under normal circumstances, would justify careful SEC review and attention to investor needs. But these are not normal circumstances: a number of additional factors exacerbate concerns and require action by the SEC to meet its investor protection and market integrity mandates by delaying the effectiveness of SpaceX’s registration statement.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> SpaceX‘s Valuation and Accounting</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> The value of SpaceX shares – now and in the foreseeable future – appears to be based on a uniquely speculative series of events. According to the Financial Times, SpaceX‘s finances today “are of no use in working out what the company is worth,” in part because of the inherent challenge of valuing activities that don’t yet exist but could be part of the growth of a company whose lofty mission is to “extend the light of consciousness to the stars.” According to a report from Morningstar, SpaceX may be worth less than half of the $1.75 trillion valuation it seeks.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Indeed, “[a]t the valuation of $1.75tn previously reported by Financial Times, SpaceX would be the U.S. stock market‘s seventh-largest company. However, when ranked by its revenue of $19 billion a year, it would be 200th, on par with Lucky Charms cereal maker General Mills.” The market has “never before had to price a stock so speculative yet so large,” and “[t]he big question is whether a valuation as large as $1.8 trillion can be sustained in public markets.” Part of the problem is the impossibility of accurately valuing SpaceX’s lofty goals, including space travel and interplanetary habitation. But it is also the product of the company‘s consistent negative profitability, and on its failure to meet past goals. As a result, market analysts have raised concerns about the math underlying SpaceX’s target valuation, calling it “nonsensical,” “smoke-and-mirrors accounting,” and “truly out of this world.” If that valuation cannot be sustained, the investors who have chosen to buy in at lofty valuations – or will be forced to do so because of their investments in index funds, that are themselves based on indexes that have amended their rules to include SpaceX – will pay the price.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Additionally, the IPO‘s value is set in part by SpaceX’s 2026 merger with xAI. Since Elon Musk was on both sides of the transaction, “he negotiate[d] the deal with himself, set the relative valuations himself, sign[ed] the merger agreement, close[d] the deal, and then [told] the boards and shareholders about it.” This gave Mr. Musk an opportunity to inflate the valuation of xAI in excess of its assets – in other words, unilaterally deciding the value of his own transaction – and roll this into the upcoming IPO. The SEC should evaluate whether transactions and other relationships between SpaceX and xAI (as well as the full web of other companies under Elon Musk‘s control) present risks to investors from inaccurate or misleading accounting or valuation. Given the range of both active and passive investors who will be exposed to SpaceX’s risk, valuations that are not supported by fundamentals may threaten the integrity and stability of our capital markets.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> The SpaceX-xAI merger is one in a series of common-control transactions between different business entities controlled by Mr. Musk – raising questions about any future plans SpaceX might have to integrate with Musk-controlled firms. For example, should Tesla and SpaceX merge as the business press has speculated, it could instantly trigger Mr. Musk‘s $1 trillion Tesla pay package due to a change in control provision that voids the performance conditions previously required to unlock the shares. Converting these new Tesla shares into new SpaceX shares could have significant implications for SpaceX shareholders. If plans do in fact exist to merge Tesla and SpaceX, such plans should be disclosed to prospective investors, as they should be considered materially important to the business strategy of the company and subsequent value of the public offering. Given that SpaceX’s S-1 makes no mention of the effect such a merger would have on SpaceX‘s valuation – even as it acknowledges that business transactions with Mr. Musk’s other ventures may occur – the SEC should conduct a thorough inquiry into Mr. Musk‘s future intentions regarding the ownership structure of his many powerful businesses before accelerating the effectiveness of SpaceX’s registration statement.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> Post-IPO Corporate Governance</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> The IPO also poses concerns because SpaceX‘s post-IPO governance structure erodes fundamental shareholder rights and vests an extraordinary level of corporate power in Mr. Musk. Publicly traded companies are meant to be accountable to their shareholders. The SpaceX IPO will flip this model on its head, with shareholders providing billions of dollars in new capital with no accountability measures for Mr. Musk or company leadership, as the company “[combines] supervoting shares, mandatory arbitration, stricter rules on shareholder proposals and Texas corporate law to give control to SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and other insiders. SpaceX also will limit investors’ ability to challenge management, sue in court, and force proxy contests.”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> As leading corporate law scholars put it, “even Musk admirers should be troubled by SpaceX‘s governance.”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX‘s preliminary prospectus indicates that the company will maintain a dual-class share structure, with each share held by Mr. Musk holding 10 times as much voting power as a share of the class offered to the public. Such asymmetry will deny shareholders any power over major corporate decisions like acquisitions, divestments, or restructuring. As the company’s prospectus admits, “Mr. Musk will be able to control the outcome of matters requiring shareholder approval.” In addition, the proposed governance structure essentially eliminates the Board of Directors‘ authority to manage the company, stripping it of the ability to fire the Chief Executive Officer: “Musk can only be removed as chair or chief executive by a majority vote of the class B shareholders — and personally controls 93.6 per cent of the share class — in effect guaranteeing his position.” As the editorial board of the Financial Times put it, “[t]raditional governance checks are almost entirely absent.... [Musk] will have a virtually unchallengeable grip on voting rights and the board.”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Compounding the problem is that “among [other] atypical arrangements, SpaceX does not plan to have the majority of its board be independent directors,” including “not us[ing] a committee of independent board members to determine executive compensation, as most companies do.” Musk‘s position is likely to be entrenched by the presence of his powerful friends on the board of directors, including Antonio Gracias and Steve Jurvetson. Mr. Gracias and Mr. Jurvetson are reportedly personally close to Mr. Musk and competitors in the market for GPS signals. This raises corporate governance concerns, and runs the risk of violating antitrust laws banning interlocking directorates in which corporate directors sit on the boards of their competitors.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX is also attempting to limit shareholders‘ access to the courts for legal remedies. According to its S-1 filing, SpaceX plans to insulate Musk from legal risk by forcing most shareholders’ suits into arbitration, a process hidden from public view and systematically tilted in favor of the company‘s interests. Importantly, arbitration would be the only option for suits under federal securities law, because the Texas Business Court – SpaceX’s preferred forum for legal disputes – does not have jurisdiction over the relevant federal securities laws, contrary to the S-1‘s assertion that the law in this area is “unsettled.” While the provision may not ultimately be enforceable, such an attempt has been made possible by the SEC’s recent reversal of a longstanding position that forced arbitration clauses in IPOs were not in “the public interest and protection of investors.” Furthermore, “SpaceX has opted for a provision that allows only shareholders holding 3 per cent or more of a company‘s shares to bring a so-called ’derivative‘ lawsuit on behalf of the company suing the board or chief executive, like the Tesla pay complaint filed by a tiny investor in the more shareholder-hospitable <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VMM\">Delaware</a>. Should SpaceX hit its expected $1.75tn valuation, a suing shareholder would need a stake of at least $52.5bn.” SpaceX also intends to protect Musk’s unilateral control over the company by raising the threshold for shareholder proposals, prohibiting most of its investors from forcing a vote at a shareholder meeting.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> The degree of Mr. Musk‘s power over SpaceX is especially concerning because of the conflicts that will inevitably arise between his interests and those of SpaceX’s shareholders and investors. The company‘s prospectus says as much: In its amended filing with the SEC, SpaceX admits that “[c]onflicts of interest could arise in the future between us, on the one hand, and Mr. Musk and entities owned by or affiliated with him, on the other hand, concerning among other things, business transactions, potential competitive activities or other business opportunities. In the normal course of business, we have engaged in a variety of transactions with some of these companies.” It continues: “Mr. Musk or his affiliates may become aware, from time to time, of certain business opportunities (such as acquisition opportunities or technological developments) and may direct such opportunities to other businesses in which they have invested, in which case [investors] may not become aware of or otherwise have the ability to pursue such opportunity.” The prospectus also details how Mr. Musk – a corporate director with fiduciary obligations to SpaceX – may also own assets in other companies that compete with SpaceX:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Under our charter, Mr. Musk and his affiliates are not restricted from owning assets or engaging in businesses that compete directly or indirectly with us and will not have any duty to refrain from engaging, directly or indirectly, in the same or similar business activities or lines of business as us, including those business activities or lines of business deemed to be competing with us, or doing business with any of our customers or vendors. Moreover, we have in the past entered into, and may in the future enter into, transactions with entities affiliated with Mr. Musk. We may enter into such transactions in lieu of pursuing other opportunities that some other shareholders may prefer or that may prove to be more accretive than the opportunities we elect to pursue.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> These provisions of SpaceX‘s prospectus indicate that its IPO will be the biggest in history and may also have the most rigged corporate structure in history. Should the IPO be approved in its current form, the uniquely unchecked power Musk will have at SpaceX creates serious concerns for investors, markets, and the public at large. This IPO ultimately sets a dangerous precedent for future IPOs.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> Effects on Passive Investors and the Capital Markets</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> The valuation and corporate governance concerns regarding SpaceX raise significant concerns about market integrity should its IPO‘s effectiveness be accelerated. For investors who pick and choose their specific investments, they at least are able to avoid investing in companies that engage in risky or unfair practices. But the SpaceX IPO creates a new concern: that major stock market indexes are being rigged in a way that would force millions of investors in passive index funds – a generally lower cost investment option that can be attractive to retail investors – to invest in SpaceX and face exposure to SpaceX’s significant risks with no choice in the matter. “Analysts estimate conservative forced buying of $15 billion to $30 billion across S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 and Russell 1000 trackers in the months after inclusion, with more aggressive float-weighted scenarios running far higher.”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> In addition to the above-average allocation of publicly traded stocks to retail investors, SpaceX‘s IPO will expose both passive and active investors to significant risk.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Major stock indexes have a clear set of rules to determine whether and when to add new companies. These rules provide important investor protections for stock purchasers from the volatility and uncertainty of newly-public IPOs and allow market discovery to establish a fair price for public companies prior to index inclusion. The rules typically include seasoning and viability requirements. For example, the S&P 500 has required that companies be publicly traded for at least twelve months and have at least four quarters of positive income prior to index inclusion.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> But SpaceX has reportedly lobbied index providers to change the rules for inclusion on their indices. And the index providers have complied, with changes that would make it easier for large technology companies like SpaceX to be fast-tracked into passive investors‘ portfolios. In April, S&P Dow Jones announced it was considering changes to its rules to more easily enable “MegaCap” companies – the largest companies on the stock market – to be fast-tracked onto its indexes. For the S&P 500 alone, the firm was considering changes that included reducing the standard 12-month post-IPO waiting period to six months, eliminating the standard 10 percent float requirements, and exempting MegaCap companies from the financial viability criteria that all other companies are expected to meet in order to qualify. On June 4, 2026, the company announced it was foregoing the proposed changes, stating that “exceptions to the financial viability, seasoning, and IWF (investable weight factor) requirements should not be granted solely based on market capitalization.” Other than S&P Dow Jones, there has not been reporting of major indexes reversing changes and exceptions to long-standing rules that will be made for SpaceX. On May 1, 2026, the Nasdaq 100 implemented a new “fast entry” rule, which would allow companies in the top 40 by market capitalization to be eligible for inclusion on their seventh day of trading. FTSE Russell has followed suit. As the Wall Street Journal reports, the firm “changed its rules to make it easier for freshly minted megacaps to enter its U.S. indexes, opening the door for passive investors to quickly access shares in SpaceX and other high-profile listings.”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> A divergence among index providers‘ approaches to new public offerings may lead to different investor expectations around stock exposure. Additionally, as one analyst warned, these shifting policies “could create significant return dispersion [between] ’passive‘ indexes.”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> For investors in index funds that do bend the rules for SpaceX, the changes may lead to the forced purchase of billions of dollars of SpaceX stock without them having any say in the matter. Suddenly, American retirement savings or pensions may be tied to SpaceX‘s market capitalization. The stock’s ubiquity would artificially jack up its value, and SpaceX insiders – thanks to special rules allowing them to sell their shares sooner than usual – would be able to quickly sell off their shares, leaving retail investors holding the bag. What results could be a massive upward redistribution of wealth – even should SpaceX not be profitable. In short, these changes may enable a scheme of financial engineering that rigs America‘s capital markets in favor of Mr. Musk and his allies. As one Financial Times commentator put it, “Why on earth is [S&P Dow Jones Indices]... seemingly flirting with a rule-bending change to allow Elon Musk’s satellites-to-AI company a quick entry?” This is a question the SEC and the index providers should answer for the public.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Changes benefitting SpaceX are not limited to indexes – they are also being made by large asset managers. On June 4, 2026, Fidelity Investments, a firm with $16.4 trillion in administered assets, “slashed its SpaceX IPO entry requirement from as much as $500,000 to just $2,000,” opening one of the biggest stock debuts in history to millions of retail investors. The risk from SpaceX‘s new IPO will therefore not be limited to large institutional investors, but also small individual investors as the IPO appears to lack many of the investor and market protections that are typically in place.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> As you consider the risks to investors from SpaceX‘s IPO, you must also factor that such risks will be immediately magnified by the inclusion of SpaceX stock on the major indexes and its availability to retail investors through major asset managers and investment advisors. This creates a scenario where current SpaceX shareholders – including senior Trump Administration officials – can enrich themselves while endangering American investors and the stability of our financial markets.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> Other Issues Warranting Delayed Effectiveness</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> In addition to the multitude of concerns regarding SpaceX‘s financial disclosures, corporate governance, and efforts to rig stock market indexes in its favor, three other considerations warrant delaying the effectiveness of the company’s registration documents and demand thorough investigation from the SEC. First, there is the matter of potential Securities Act violations in the form of leaks regarding SpaceX‘s initial private filing. Well before SpaceX’s confidential SEC registration statement was filed on April 1, 2026, news reports carried information about the contents of the prospectus and generated investor interest. If these leaks were the result of a coordinated attempt by SpaceX to increase market interest in advance of an IPO, it might constitute a violation of Section 5 of the Securities Act, which prohibits “gun-jumping” – selling or publicizing shares before a registration statement has been provided. The law provides that “Unless a registration statement is in effect as to a security, it shall be unlawful for any person, directly or indirectly ... to make use of any means or instruments of transportation or communication in interstate commerce or of the mails to sell such security through the use or medium of any prospectus or otherwise.” Because of the extraordinary publicity surrounding SpaceX going public in the advance of any registration statement, the SEC should increase scrutiny of SpaceX‘s IPO tactics to ensure that the company has not violated Section 5.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Second, there is the market confusion that has ensued from Mr. Musk making statements regarding the company on X – the social media platform he also owns, now under the xAI segment of SpaceX. It appears to some financial journalists that these statements materially contradict business information included in SpaceX‘s public filing. Whether or not the deviations are material, Mr. Musk is well-known to have a propensity to make public statements on X on whims that can instantly move markets. He is also known to cash out on large pay packages despite not meeting lofty business goals. If this pattern of behavior continues, it casts significant doubt on SpaceX’s credibility, and whether its IPO as filed sufficiently informs investors of the risks involved with Mr. Musk.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Concerns regarding a Securities Act violation and contradictory statements made by Mr. Musk give enough reason for the SEC to delay the effectiveness of SpaceX‘s registration, and allow the markets a cooling-off period to more thoroughly evaluate the soundness of SpaceX’s IPO.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> Conclusion and Questions</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> The SpaceX IPO appears to present a unique and precedent-setting risk for shareholders and future public company offerings. The company‘s accounting and financial reports contain troubling gaps, and are clouded by the massive and opaque xAI merger that occurred earlier this year. The company’s corporate governance structure vests unique power in its CEO and severely limits shareholders‘ rights. And the complicity of major stock indices in waiving old rules or creating new ones to allow SpaceX’s inclusion means that billions of dollars of passive investments will be forced into the company, putting retirees and ordinary investors at risk.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> In short, there are a multitude of unanswered material questions investors and the public have about SpaceX and what it is likely to do with the billions it seeks to raise. The SEC should not accelerate the effectiveness of SpaceX‘s registration without serious scrutiny of SpaceX’s financial statements, governance structure, and the impact it may have on retail investors, including through index funds.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> I request detailed answers to the following questions no later than June 23, 2026:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> How does the SEC intend to evaluate SpaceX‘s claims about its valuation on the basis of its claims regarding such things as space travel, multiplanetary habitation, and “extending the light of consciousness to the stars”? Please include specific information about: a. Any potential sources of overvaluation b. The discrepancy between SpaceX’s proffered valuation ($1.75 trillion) and its revenues ($19 billion per year)</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> What is the SEC‘s plan to ensure investors receive clear and accurate disclosures despite complex accounting issues? Please provide specific information about: a. The valuation of the recent xAI acquisition b. The impact of co-founder departures c. The revenues and losses of each of SpaceX’s subsidiaries, including Launch, Starlink, and xAI, including industry-standard information on Starlink‘s subscriber base d. Any potential conflicts of interest among underwriting banks e. The rigor and independence of SpaceX’s auditors, including any potential conflicts of interest f. Any intended future mergers or major transactions that could have a material effect on the value of SpaceX stock</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Does the SEC believe that leaked information from the draft confidential filing has substantially increased market interest in SpaceX‘s initial public offering?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Has the SEC considered delaying SpaceX‘s initial public offering, given reports that information from the draft confidential filing was leaked improperly and could be considered “gun-jumping”?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> How does the SEC plan to account for SpaceX‘s corporate structure, which vests nearly complete control in one person, in its evaluation of the IPO? Please provide specific information about: a. Its dual-class share structure b. Elon Musk’s control of voting shares c. The independence of board members, given their personal and business relationships with Musk, the controlling shareholder d. Potential conflicted transactions between SpaceX and other entities Musk controls</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> What does the SEC plan to do to protect passive investors from the risks of SpaceX stock, including: a. Institutional investors (like pension funds), and b. Stockholders of passive index funds</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Will the SEC seek the legal basis for SpaceX‘s conclusion that the jurisdiction of state courts over Exchange Act claims is unsettled?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Sincerely,</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> [Signature]</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Elizabeth Warren</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Ranking Member</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">Footnotes:</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Bloomberg, “What to Know About the SpaceX IPO,” Anthony Hughes, May 29, 2026, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-29/what-to-know-about-the-spacex-ipo.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Bloomberg, “Trump Officials Held Millions of Dollars of SpaceX Ahead of IPO,” Annie Massa, Sophie Alexander, and Bill Allison, June 3, 2026, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-03/spacex-ipo-poised-to-enrich-trump-officials-who-hold-millions-in-stock.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Financial Times, “More takeaways from an S-1 for the ages,” Craig Coben, May 26, 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Bloomberg, “SpaceX‘s Capital Needs Are Out of This World” Chris Bryant, June 3, 2026, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-06-03/spacex-ipo-elon-musk-capital-needs-are-out-of-this-world.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026039276/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> New York Times, “The Numbers, and Questions, Behind Musk‘s Mega-Merger,” Andrew Ross Sorkin et al., February 3, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/business/dealbook/spacex-xai-merger.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX, Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, May 20, 2026, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Reuters, “SpaceX files for IPO, sources say, offering investors stake in Musk‘s space ambitions,” Echo Wang, Manya Saini, and Joey Roulette, April 1, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-registers-take-rocket-maker-public-blockbuster-ipo-bloomberg-news-reports-2026-04-01/.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Financial Times, “Inside SpaceX‘s audacious IPO plan,” Ryan McMorrow et al., May 20, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/a59be3cf-eee2-4b10-9c86-b6e4dc0dbbdb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 15 U.S.C. § 77h; 17 C.F.R. § 230.461(b).</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, “Filing Review Process,” Sept. 27, 2019.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Financial Times, “How to make sense of SpaceX‘s nonsensical valuation,” May 21, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/58fcca43-9195-49e2-b1c3-0e3bfb0147cd?syn-25a6b1a6=1.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> CNBC, “SpaceX is worth less than half of its $1.75 trillion IPO target, Morningstar says,” Joseph Wilkins, June 3, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/morningstar-spacex-ipo-target-price-nasdaq.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Financial Times, “How to make sense of SpaceX‘s nonsensical valuation,” May 21, 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Id.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Bloomberg, “What to Know About the SpaceX IPO,” Anthony Hughes, May 29, 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Fortune, “Top analyst has harsh words for SpaceX debut: ‘We recommend that investors avoid this IPO’,” Shawn Tully, May 29, 2026, https://fortune.com/2026/05/29/spacex-ipo-should-i-buy-bear-case-david-trainer/.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> New York Times, “How SpaceX Is Structured to Favor Elon Musk,” Ryan Mac, May 26, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/26/technology/spacex-elon-musk-pay-board-governance.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Financial Times, “How to make sense of SpaceX‘s nonsensical valuation,” May 21, 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> The Motley Fool, “Honestly, the SpaceX Prospectus Is Far Worse Than I Imagined,” Sean Williams, May 26, 2026, https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/05/26/the-spacex-prospectus-is-far-worse-than-i-imagined/.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Fortune, “Top analyst has harsh words for SpaceX debut: ‘We recommend that investors avoid this IPO’,” Shawn Tully, May 29, 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Bloomberg, “Musk‘s Moonshot Merger,” Matt Levine, February 3, 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Forbes, “Elon Musk,” https://www.forbes.com/profile/elon-musk/.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Fortune, “Elon Musk‘s SpaceX buys xAI in stunning deal valued at $1.25 trillion ahead of looming IPO,” Amanda Gerut, February 2, 2026, https://fortune.com/2026/02/02/elon-musk-spacex-xai-ipo-trillion/.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Forbes, “Could Musk Merge SpaceX And Tesla? Here‘s What Analysts—And Betting Markets—Say,” Ty Roush, May 27, 2026, https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2026/05/27/could-musk-merge-spacex-and-tesla-heres-what-analysts-and-betting-markets-say/; CNBC, “Will Elon Musk eventually merge SpaceX with Tesla? Speculation is building,” Ananya Chetia, May 21, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/will-elon-musk-eventually-merge-spacex-with-tesla-speculation-builds.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Yahoo! Finance, “SpaceX-Tesla Merger Could Trigger Elon Musk‘s $1 Trillion Pay Package: Report,” Badar Shaikh, June 2, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-tesla-merger-could-trigger-123106691.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, p. 57.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Reuters, “The SpaceX IPO and the lost battle for shareholder rights,” Ross Kerber, May 13, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/spacex-ipo-lost-battle-shareholder-rights-rosskerber-2026-05-13/.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance, “Even Musk Admirers Should Be Troubled by SpaceX‘s Governance,” Lucian Bebchuk and Kobi Kastiel, June 2, 2026, https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2026/06/02/even-musk-admirers-should-be-troubled-by-spacexs-governance/.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, p. 2.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Id.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Financial Times, “Inside SpaceX‘s audacious IPO plan,” Ryan McMorrow et al., May 20, 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Financial Times, Editorial, “To infinity and beyond, with the SpaceX IPO,” May 22, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/0e5ab16c-957e-44d6-aa16-fe23412ef6df?syn-25a6b1a6=1.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> New York Times, “How SpaceX Is Structured to Favor Elon Musk,” Ryan Mac, May 26, 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Wall Street Journal, “The Money and Drugs That Tie Elon Musk to Some Tesla Directors,” Kirsten Grind et al., February 3, 2024, https://www.wsj.com/tech/elon-musk-tesla-money-drugs-board-61af9ac4.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> “XONA Space Systems — Powerful Precise GPS,” Steve Jurvetson, May 8, 2024, https://steve.blog/2024/05/08/xona-space-systems-powerful-precise-gps/; PR Newswire, “Xona Raises $92M to Rebuild Satellite Navigation for a New Era,” June 26, 2025, https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/xona-raises-92m-to-rebuild-satellite-navigation-for-a-new-era-302491586.html; PC Magazine, “SpaceX to FCC: We Can Supply a GPS Alternative Through Starlink,” Michael Kan, May 14, 2025, https://www.pcmag.com/news/spacex-to-fcc-we-can-supply-a-gps-alternative-through-starlink.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 15 U.S.C. § 19.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, pp. 63-64.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> New York Times, “How SpaceX Is Structured to Favor Elon Musk,” Ryan Mac, May 26, 2026; Capital Forum, “Transcript of Conference Call on Forced Arbitration and Corporate Power in the Courts with Brendan Ballou,” May 12, 2026, https://thecapitolforum.com/resource/transcript-of-conference-call-on-forced-arbitration-and-corporate-power-in-the-courts-with-brendan-ballou/.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 15 U.S.C. § 78aa (giving federal courts exclusive jurisdiction over claims brought under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934).</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, p. 63.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, “Sunshine Act Notice,” September 10, 2025, https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/meetings-events/sunshine-act-notice-open-meeting-091725.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Financial Times, “SpaceX to drive a Cybertruck through corporate governance norms,” Sujeet Indap, May 26, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/7f34d58b-da81-4778-bca1-7aa89b08afca?syn-25a6b1a6=1.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Reuters, “The SpaceX IPO and the lost battle for shareholder rights,” Ross Kerber, May 13, 2026; TradingKey, “SpaceX IPO: Musk Controls 85.1% Voting Power, Shareholders Waive Jury Trials and Class Actions,” Jay Qian, May 21, 2026, https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261919584-elonmusk-spacex-ipo-tradingkey.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, p. 57.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Id.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Id.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Social Science Research Network, “The Growth and Consequences of Index Investing,” Anne-Florence Allard et al., January 12, 2026, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6056574.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Yahoo! Finance, “SpaceX IPO could hit popular index funds — and your 401(k) — in as little as 5 trading days as indexes relax their rules,” Rudro Chakrabarti, June 1, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-ipo-could-hit-popular-101500534.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Id.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Bloomberg, “Index Funds Can‘t Say No to SpaceX,” Matt Levine, May 26, 2026, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-05-26/index-funds-can-t-say-no-to-spacex; Financial Times, “Et tu, S&P 500?,” March 26, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/59adbe42-ca30-47f3-9cda-5415945e9368.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Business Insider, “Here‘s when SpaceX could show up in major indexes and popular ETFs after its IPO,” Naomi Buchanan, May 24, 2026, https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-ipo-index-investing-etfs-spy-vti-qqq-spcx-stock-2026-5; CNBC, “Elon Musk’s SpaceX weighs Nasdaq listing after seeking early index entry, Reuters sources say,” March 10, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/10/elon-musks-spacex-weighs-nasdaq-listing-after-seeking-early-index-entry.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Yahoo! Finance, “Elon Musk‘s SpaceX Could Be Fast-Tracked Into S&P 500 After IPO Under Proposed Rule Changes,” Badir Shaikh, May 2, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/elon-musks-spacex-could-fast-180121306.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Bloomberg, “Index Funds Can‘t Say No to SpaceX,” Matt Levine, May 26, 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Id.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> S&P Dow Jones Indices, “S&P Dow Jones Indices Consultation on Treatment of MegaCap Companies,” press release, April 30, 2026, https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20260430-1483123/1483123_spdji-us-indices-megacaps-consult-20260430.pdf.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Yahoo! Finance, “SpaceX Faces Delay to S&P 500 Inclusion After Index Provider Keeps Existing Criteria (SPCX),” Fiona Craig, June 5, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-faces-delay-p-500-100109864.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Yahoo! Finance, “Buckle Up, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Index Fund Investors. SpaceX Could Soon Become 1 of Your Largest Positions,” Daniel Foelber, May 31, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/buckle-p-500-nasdaq-index-162000546.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> FTSE Russell, “Consultation for the Russell US Equity Indexes on the timing of IPOs and the treatment of companies with a high free float market capitalization,” February 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Wall Street Journal, “FTSE Russell Latest to Make U.S. Index Inclusion Easier Ahead of SpaceX IPO,” Joe Stonor, May 27, 2026, https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/ftse-russell-latest-to-make-u-s-index-inclusion-easier-ahead-of-spacex-ipo-35157adf.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Post on X by Eric Balchunas, June 4, 2026, https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/2062647912065044532?s=20.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> CNBC, “SpaceX insiders will get to sell shares earlier than usual after the IPO,” Leslie Picker, May 21, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/spacex-insiders-will-get-to-sell-shares-earlier-than-usual-after-the-ipo.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Financial Times, “Et tu, S&P 500?,” Robin Wigglesworth, March 26, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/59adbe42-ca30-47f3-9cda-5415945e9368.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> RIABiz, “Fidelity soars to $16.4 trillion of assets, a 16% jump of $2.3 trillion for 12 months, and widens gap on BlackRock and Schwab,” Brooke Southall, August 14, 2025, https://riabiz.com/a/2025/8/15/fidelity-soars-to-164-trillion-of-assets-a-16-jump-of-23-trillion-for-12-months-and-widens-gap-on-blackrock-and-schwab.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Yahoo! Finance, “Fidelity Cuts SpaceX IPO Eligibility by 99%, But 5 Rules Could Cost You Access,” Lockridge Okoth, June 4, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/fidelity-cuts-spacex-ipo-eligibility-183319186.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Bloomberg, “Trump Officials Held Millions of Dollars of SpaceX Ahead of IPO,” Annie Massa, Sophie Alexander, and Bill Allison, June 3, 2026.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> New York Times, “SpaceX Files to Go Public, Setting Stage for Huge I.P.O.,” Ryan Mac, Lauren Hirsch, and Maureen Farrell, April 1, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/technology/spacex-ipo-elon-musk.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> See, e.g., Reuters, “Exclusive: Elon Musk‘s SpaceX weighs Nasdaq listing after seeking early index entry, sources say,” Anirban Sen and Echo Wang, March 10, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/elon-musks-spacex-weighs-nasdaq-listing-after-seeking-early-index-entry-sources-2026-03-10/; Reuters, “Exclusive: Musk rewrites IPO playbook with large slice of SpaceX stock for retail investors, source says,” Echo Wang, Milana Vinn, and Sabrina Valle, March 26, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/musk-rewrites-ipo-playbook-with-large-slice-spacex-stock-retail-investors-source-2026-03-26/.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Cornell Law School Legal Information Institute, “Gun Jumping,” https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/gun_jumping.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 15 U.S.C. § 77e; 17 C.F.R. § 230.135.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> Forbes, “Elon Musk‘s xAI Buys X — Here’s What That Means For You,” Kate O‘Flaherty, March 31, 2025, https://www.forbes.com/sites/kateoflahertyuk/2025/03/31/elon-musks-xai-buys-x-heres-what-that-means-for-you/.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> CNBC, “SpaceX skeptics have added reason for concern after Musk comments diverge from IPO filing,” Lora Kolodny, May 29, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/spacex-skeptics-concerned-as-musk-comments-diverge-from-ipo-filing.html.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> CNBC, “Elon Musk‘s tweets are moving markets — and some investors are worried,” Sam Shead, January 29, 2021.</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> New York Times, “How SpaceX Is Structured to Favor Elon Musk,” Ryan Mac, May 26, 2026.</p>\n<div></div>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑:石秀珍 SF183</p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>严防马斯克割韭菜!美参议员致信SEC:必须叫停SpaceX上市!(附12页信函)</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n严防马斯克割韭菜!美参议员致信SEC:必须叫停SpaceX上市!(附12页信函)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-12 09:20 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-06-12/doc-inicazrx3618807.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>来源:财经会议圈\n\n 拆解史上最大IPO背后的资本收割游戏\n 华盛顿的“拦路虎”\n 2026年6月11日,就在SpaceX距离正式登陆纳斯达克仅剩不到24小时之际,一封火药味十足的12页信函直抵美国证券交易委员会(SEC)。\n 发信人不是别人,正是以“华尔街死敌”著称的民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)。她在信中措辞激烈地要求SEC:必须推迟SpaceX的IPO...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-06-12/doc-inicazrx3618807.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/93/w550h343/20260612/c59a-ca4d9fe3735d970a16c53a05c0fe5f26.png","relate_stocks":{"LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","LU1989763690.USD":"东方汇理世代食品基金A2 Acc","TSII":"REX TSLA Growth & Income ETF","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU1989763427.SGD":"CPR Invest - Food For Generations A2 Acc 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SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","09766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉-U","QDTE":"Roundhill N-100 0DTE Covered Call Strategy ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-06-12/doc-inicazrx3618807.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2642537392","content_text":"来源:财经会议圈\n\n 拆解史上最大IPO背后的资本收割游戏\n 华盛顿的“拦路虎”\n 2026年6月11日,就在SpaceX距离正式登陆纳斯达克仅剩不到24小时之际,一封火药味十足的12页信函直抵美国证券交易委员会(SEC)。\n 发信人不是别人,正是以“华尔街死敌”著称的民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)。她在信中措辞激烈地要求SEC:必须推迟SpaceX的IPO上市,这场“史上最大规模IPO”对投资者保护和市场完整性构成了前所未有的威胁。\n 沃伦在信中写下了一句振聋发聩的警告:\n\n“你们必须推迟该登记声明的生效时间。SpaceX的IPO创造了一个新问题:它正在操纵主要的股市指数,强迫数百万投资指数基金的普通散户在别无选择的情况下,被迫承担SpaceX的巨大风险。”\n\n 这话听起来刺耳,但细看SpaceX的上市设计,你会发现沃伦的担忧绝非杞人忧天。\n\n 离谱的“一口价”\n 135美元的爱买不买\n 传统IPO的玩法,大家都懂:投行先给一个价格区间,比如100-120美元,然后根据市场认购情况最终定价,这叫“价格发现”。\n 但SpaceX不玩这一套。\n 它直接甩出135美元/股的“一口价”,爱买不买。\n 这在华尔街历史上极为罕见。一家公司估值高达1.75万亿-2万亿美元,却连最基本的市场博弈定价环节都省了,摆明了就是“我说多少就是多少”。\n 更离谱的是散户分配比例。\n 美股常规IPO,散户份额通常只有5%-10%,绝大多数份额都会留给长期持有的机构基石投资者。但SpaceX反其道而行之,将30%的IPO份额分配给散户,金额高达225亿美元。\n 外界普遍吹捧这是“让利散户、共享红利”,但内行看门道:\n\n\n机构投资者追求长期稳定、风险可控,是市场的压舱石;\n\n\n散户受情绪、舆论、偶像滤镜驱动,盲目跟风、追涨杀跌,波动率极高。\n\n\n 马斯克拥有庞大的粉丝群体,他们会自发造势、无脑买入,短期强行推高股价。但后续只要出现任何负面舆情,即便公司基本面毫无变化,股价也会因为散户情绪崩塌而大幅跳水。\n 参考历史案例:Robinhood曾将35%新股份额分给散户,上市后被散户爆炒至85美元,热度褪去后半年暴跌至15美元,高位接盘散户全线深套。\n SpaceX本次散户占比极高,未来必然复刻同款走势:短期情绪拉涨,长期散户买单。\n\n 估值泡沫\n 市销率100倍的天方夜谭\n SpaceX的估值到底有多离谱?我们来看看硬数据。\n 2025年,SpaceX全年营收187亿美元,估值却突破1.75万亿美元,市销率接近100倍。\n 做个对比:\n\n\nAI龙头Anthropic估值近万亿美元,市销率仅21倍;\n\n\nOpenAI市销率也只有34倍;\n\n\n这两家AI企业的营收增速,远高于SpaceX,估值倍数却远低于它。\n\n\n 对比之下就能发现,所谓的AI泡沫,和SpaceX的估值泡沫相比,根本不值一提。\n 更夸张的是,招股书中宣称公司远期潜在市场规模(TAM)高达28.5万亿美元。这个数字是什么概念?远超中国全年20万亿级的GDP体量,完全脱离现实商业逻辑,纯属夸张造势。\n 还有马斯克的薪酬解锁条件:授予其10亿股、价值约6000亿美元的股权,解锁要求包括:\n 公司市值突破7.5万亿美元;\n 完成火星移民核心布局;\n 在火星落地100万常住人口。\n 这在任何理性投资者看来,都是天方夜谭。但这就是投行的基本功:用专业模型、海量数据、行业术语,把虚无缥缈的故事包装得逻辑自洽、看似可行。\n “包子式”包装\n 用星链包裹xAI的资本游戏\n 从一线ECM投行分析师的内行视角来看,SpaceX的估值逻辑本质上是一套“层层嵌套打包”模式:\n 用盈利稳定、现金流优质的星链业务,包裹业绩惨淡、无法独立上市的xAI业务,形成“优质资产兜底、劣质资产挂靠”的包子式结构。\n 来看2025年的真实财务数据:\n\n\n星链部门:收入114亿美元,盈利72亿美元(唯一优质资产);\n\n\n火箭发射部门:收入41亿美元,亏损6.62亿美元;\n\n\nxAI部门:收入13亿美元,亏损130亿美元(纯纯的包袱)。\n\n\n 看似三大核心业务协同发力,实则只有星链是核心盈利资产,其余业务均为亏损包袱。\n 这套打包模式还实现了“废物利用、税务套利”:xAI常年持续亏损,单独运营会导致大量税务抵扣额度作废。而通过整体打包上市,所有亏损额度均可并入主体财报,合法抵扣利润、降低整体税负。\n 这就是华尔街的真实玩法:所谓的公允估值、专业模型,从来不是测算出来的,而是机构之间反复扯皮、博弈、妥协出来的“市场公约数”。\n 纳斯达克的“规则特供”\n 被动资金接盘局\n 为了确保上市成功,这次IPO的设计可谓是煞费苦心,其中最争议的莫过于纳斯达克专门为SpaceX修改规则。\n 规则修改内容:将纳入纳斯达克100指数的时间从3个月缩短至15天,而且是加权纳入(权重不合理拉高3倍)。\n 这意味着什么?\n 美国有大量被动指数基金、养老基金、401K退休金账户,会自动买入纳斯达克100成分股。也就是说,只要熬过15天,就可以用老百姓的养老金来给SpaceX接盘了。\n 据测算,仅被动基金强制配置的资金就高达100-200亿美元。\n 精明的资金早已提前布局:提前低价建仓,等待指数纳入、被动资金进场后高位套现。叠加散户狂热抢购、主动基金布局、中东热钱涌入,上市初期流通股稀缺,股价必然被暴力拉升,制造极致的赚钱效应。\n 这场狂欢的终极剧本,早已注定:\n 上市拉升后,马斯克、早期股东、核心员工会通过新股增发、股票质押贷款等方式持续套现(马斯克历来偏好质押套现,特斯拉时期亦是如此)。内部利益方离场完毕后,股价终将回归基本面,所有浮亏、泡沫风险,全部由后进场的机构和散户承接。\n 而这些机构资金,本质也是普通人的养老钱、理财钱。\n 星链业务遇瓶颈\n 对美军“趁火打劫”\n 很多人不知道的是,星链业务已经触及瓶颈,连带火箭发射业务的未来订单也存疑。\n 来看数据:\n\n\n2025年一季度,星链用户规模1030万,比去年翻了一倍,但前一年可是翻了三倍的,增速明显下滑;\n\n\n更可怕的是增长是怎么来的?平均每用户收入(ARPU)从2023年的99美元/月降到2024年的91美元,再降到2025年的80美元,到2025年一季度已经暴降至66美元。\n\n\n 完全是靠降价换量、打价格战!\n 原因不难理解:如果你住在纽约、东京、上海,根本不会用星链。星链就是给偏远地区用的,但偏远地区之所以偏远,就是因为人少。To C端增长见顶了。\n 那怎么办?只能对军方涨价。\n 前段时间美军在战场大量使用名为“卢卡斯”的一次性无人机,内置星链终端。前线激战正酣,SpaceX突然要求将网络费用翻5倍,从原先的5000美元/月直接涨到25000美元/月。\n 理由是:你原本买的是“地面套餐”,实际用在飞行器上,就得按“飞行器套餐”付款。\n 结果服软的居然是美军!媒体询问负责人,他只说SpaceX依然是“稳固可靠的长期合作伙伴”。\n 这件事充分说明:SpaceX已经具备对军方的议价能力,但这也暴露出其实体业务增长乏力的尴尬现实。\n 沃伦的三大“地雷”指控\n 沃伦在致SEC的信中,详细列举了SpaceX在财务和治理上的三大“地雷”:\n 1. xAI收购案可能存在会计造假或估值误导\n SpaceX收购马斯克另一家公司xAI的过程中,交易定价是否公允?是否存在通过关联交易转移利益?这些问题都需要SEC彻查。\n 2. 马斯克个人利益与公司利益存在严重冲突\n 马斯克同时是SpaceX和xAI的大股东,两家公司之间的交易,本质上是“左手倒右手”。这种利益输送的风险,在IPO招股书中是否被充分披露?\n 3. 马斯克在公司内部拥有独断专行的权力,缺乏有效制衡\n 目前马斯克手握SpaceX 82%的投票权,意味着这家近2万亿估值的行业巨头,完全由他一人掌控,没有任何机构或股东能够制衡、干预。\n 成也创始人,险也创始人。 过去两年,马斯克极度痴迷AI和太空数据中心赛道,这意味着未来很长一段时间,SpaceX将持续投入巨额资本用于新业务研发和布局,重资产投入之下,战略失误、投入失败的风险极高。\n 资本慌乱\n 为什么急着上市?\n 很多人会问:SpaceX明明可以不用上市,为什么马斯克这么着急?\n 答案很简单:这不是企业发展需要,而是资本的集体慌乱。\n 原因一:全球风投行业迎来数十年最严峻的退出危机\n 世界经济论坛5月发布的最新数据显示:\n\n\n当前全球未上市的独角兽企业中,20%已成立超15年,59%已成立超10年;\n\n\n企业从种子轮到首轮退出的周期,相比2022年拉长了45%。\n\n\n 行业常规规则里,风投基金对LP的承诺退出周期仅为10年。这意味着,超半数独角兽早已超出约定退出期限,大量风投资金长期被套牢。\n 原因二:AI行业极度烧钱,融资窗口期短暂\n OpenAI去年亏损超80亿美元,Anthropic去年亏损超30亿美元,且两家企业未来数年仍将持续大额烧钱。\n 业内普遍认为,AI行业泡沫已然存在,只是没人能精准预判破裂时间。马斯克急于落地IPO,就是为了抢占高位窗口期,锁定万亿估值,提前规避后续市场下跌风险。\n 原因三:抢占AI资本红利的末班车\n 当下是全球市场对AI概念溢价最高、资金最狂热的阶段。SpaceX抢先完成IPO,能够率先吸干华尔街所有AI+太空赛道的增量资金。\n 高端资本博弈向来朴素:先到先得、先上市先收割。\n 三个阶段:看清洗牌时刻\n SpaceX上市必须看准三个阶段:\n 第一阶段:看上市当天能否不破发\n 如果流通盘这么小(仅释放5%股份)、承销团这么强、机构认购这么热还能破发,说明市场其实已经虚透了。\n 第二阶段:看上市后15到30天\n 能否顺利纳入纳斯达克100指数,把筹码成功交给被动基金(养老金)。\n 第三阶段:看半年后大股东解禁\n 5%的流通比例意味着95%的股份在IPO时处于锁定状态。半年后(12月初),这些股份将解除锁定。那些在几十亿、几百亿估值时入场的早期股东,将面临十几倍、几十倍甚至上百倍的暴利退出机会。\n 那将是怎样的一场腥风血雨?\n 谁是最大的赢家?\n 这场顶级资本盛宴里,收益圈层极度分化。\n 真正的赢家只有三类:\n 持股42%的马斯克本人——上市后财富将突破万亿级,成为全球首位万亿富翁;\n 合计持股10%-15%的公司核心员工——早期入局,成本极低;\n 早期入局的风投机构与股东——终于等到退出时刻。\n 除此之外,21家承销投行是最大的隐形赢家。\n 今年投行行业普遍低迷、降薪裁员,而SpaceX这一个超级项目,就能让所有参与投行团队超额盈利。后续还能持续解锁二级市场增发、可转债、并购交易、大宗交易、股票回购等持续业务,堪称投行的“年度飞升项目”,一年顶往年五年收益。\n 而输家呢?\n 所有脱离基本面的高估值狂欢,最终都会回归均值。狂欢落幕之后,永远是后进场的普通人承担所有风险。\n 历史的轮回\n 运河狂热与太空泡沫\n 最后,让我们用一个经典历史案例帮大家看懂本质。\n 19世纪全球掀起运河狂热,苏伊士运河、巴拿马运河开凿前夕,无数法国中产疯狂募资入局。最终巴拿马运河公司1889年破产,初代投资者尽数血本无归。\n 但运河最终成功通航,彻底改写了全球贸易格局,造福了后续上百年的全球经济和无数行业。可初代的基建投资者,几乎没有吃到任何时代红利。\n 如今的SpaceX、追捧它的华尔街资本,何尝不是当年的运河狂热?\n 我从不否认SpaceX的伟大,也不否认太空经济的星辰大海,但作为普通投资者,我们一定要克制对个人英雄主义的崇拜、对科幻浪漫叙事的盲从。\n 沃伦的警告,不该被忽视\n SpaceX是实体产业的颠覆者,却是资本市场的收割者。\n 它用极致务实打破了传统航天的暴利与僵化,却用极致资本套路,打造了一场属于顶级圈层的泡沫盛宴。\n 伊丽莎白·沃伦的警告,不该被忽视。\n SEC是否会在政治压力下叫停这场“资本狂欢”?马斯克将如何反击这位“死对头”的狙击?周五的上市计划是否会突遭变数?\n 这一切,都将在未来48小时内揭晓。\n 但无论结果如何,普通投资者都应该记住一句话:\n 所有脱离基本面的高估值狂欢,最终都会回归均值。狂欢落幕之后,永远是后进场的普通人承担所有风险。\n 这是一封美国参议院银行、住房与城市事务委员会成员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)于2026年6月9日写给美国证券交易委员会(SEC)主席保罗·阿特金斯(Paul Atkins)的信函,要求SEC推迟SpaceX的IPO注册声明生效。\n 以下是全文翻译:\n 美国参议院银行、住房与城市事务委员会华盛顿特区 20510-6075\n 2026年6月9日\n 尊敬的保罗·阿特金斯主席: 美国证券交易委员会 东北F街100号 华盛顿特区 20549\n 阿特金斯主席:\n 我怀着极度关切的心情,就太空探索技术公司(Space Exploration Technologies Corp.,简称“SpaceX”)即将进行的首次公开募股(IPO)致函您。\n 据报道,由埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)拥有的航空航天和人工智能公司SpaceX,计划在本月晚些时候以高达2万亿美元的估值向投资者募集高达750亿美元——这将使其成为“史上最大规模的股市首秀”。然而,此次IPO似乎对普通投资者及其退休储蓄构成重大风险,同时为SpaceX内部人士(包括特朗普政府高级官员)带来巨大利益。\n 与SpaceX公开募股相关的风险源于该公司向证券交易委员会(“SEC”或“委员会”)提交的备案文件及其他公开报道中揭示的一系列问题:首先,SpaceX预计将以约100倍2025年营收的价格发行股票——这一估值倍数几乎史无前例,需要投资者对AI和太空两个领域的诸多假设抱以极大信心;其次,非传统的公司治理结构将使SpaceX首席执行官埃隆·马斯克拥有前所未有的权力,而投资者获得的权利将远低于传统公开股票购买者通常享有的权利;第三,主要股指提供商正在改写规则,为SpaceX快速进入其指数——以及驱动数百万美国人退休储蓄的投资基金——铺平道路。\n 最终的结果可能是灾难性的:如果SpaceX的估值崩溃,退休人员和家庭的投资者账户将遭受损失,且对任何公司不当行为几乎没有追索权,而地球上最富有的人则因缺乏监管而变得更加富有。SEC的核心使命是保护投资者,维护公平、有序和高效的市场。鉴于史上最大规模IPO对投资者保护和市场诚信构成的前所未有的威胁,您必须推迟任何加速注册声明生效的行为。\n 在允许公司向公众出售其股票之前,委员会必须考虑“公共利益和投资者保护”。在此过程中,委员会可以审查公司的初步招股说明书,以“确认其是否符合适用的会计标准和联邦证券法律法规的披露要求”。仅SpaceX IPO的巨大规模,在正常情况下就足以证明SEC进行仔细审查和关注投资者需求的合理性。但这些并非正常情况:诸多额外因素加剧了担忧,并要求SEC采取行动以履行其投资者保护和市场诚信职责,即推迟注册声明的生效。\n SpaceX的估值与会计\n SpaceX股票的价值——无论是现在还是可预见的未来——似乎建立在一系列独特的投机性事件之上。据《金融时报》报道,SpaceX目前的财务状况“对于计算公司价值毫无用处”,部分原因是评估尚不存在的活动的固有挑战,但这些活动可能成为一家使命崇高(“将意识之光延伸到星辰”)的公司增长的一部分。据晨星(Morningstar)的一份报告,SpaceX的价值可能不到其1.75万亿美元估值的一半。\n 事实上,“以《金融时报》此前报道的1.75万亿美元估值计算,SpaceX将成为美国股市第七大公司。然而,按每年190亿美元的营收排名,它仅位列第200位,与幸运符麦片制造商通用磨坊(General Mills)相当。”市场“从未有过对一只如此投机却又如此庞大的股票进行定价的先例”,“最大的问题是,高达1.8万亿美元的估值能否在公开市场中持续”。部分问题在于准确评估SpaceX的崇高目标(包括太空旅行和星际居住)是不可能的。但这也是该公司持续亏损和未能实现过去目标的产物。因此,市场分析师对其目标估值背后的数学逻辑提出了质疑,称之为“荒谬的”、“烟幕弹式的会计”和“真正脱离现实的”。如果该估值无法持续,选择以高估值买入的投资者——或因投资于指数基金而被迫买入的投资者,而这些基金本身基于已修改规则以纳入SpaceX的指数——将为此付出代价。\n 此外,IPO的估值部分由SpaceX与xAI的2026年合并决定。由于埃隆·马斯克身处交易双方,“他亲自与自己谈判交易,自己设定相对估值,自己签署合并协议,自己完成交易,然后才告知董事会和股东”。这让马斯克有机会将xAI的估值抬高到超过其资产价值的水平——换句话说,单方面决定自己交易的价值——并将其纳入即将进行的IPO。SEC应评估SpaceX与xAI之间(以及埃隆·马斯克控制的其他公司组成的完整网络)的交易和关系是否因不准确或误导性的会计或估值而对投资者构成风险。鉴于众多主动和被动投资者将暴露于SpaceX的风险之下,缺乏基本面支撑的估值可能威胁我们资本市场的完整性和稳定性。\n SpaceX-xAI合并是马斯克先生控制的不同商业实体之间一系列共同控制交易中的一例——引发了关于SpaceX未来计划与其控制的公司进行整合的任何疑问。例如,正如商业媒体推测的那样,如果特斯拉(Tesla)和SpaceX合并,可能立即触发马斯克先生1万亿美元的特斯拉薪酬方案,因为控制权变更条款将取消此前解锁股票所需的业绩条件。将这些新的特斯拉股票转换为新的SpaceX股票可能对SpaceX股东产生重大影响。如果确实存在将特斯拉和SpaceX合并的计划,此类计划应向潜在投资者披露,因为它们应被视为对公司业务战略和公开募股后续价值具有重大重要性的事项。鉴于SpaceX的S-1备案文件未提及此类合并对SpaceX估值的影响——尽管它承认与马斯克先生其他企业的业务交易可能发生——SEC应在加速SpaceX注册声明生效之前,对马斯克先生关于其众多强大企业所有权结构的未来意图进行彻底调查。\n IPO后的公司治理\n IPO还引发担忧,因为SpaceX的IPO后公司治理结构侵蚀了基本的股东权利,并将非同寻常的公司权力授予马斯克先生。公开交易公司理应对其股东负责。SpaceX的IPO将颠覆这一模式,股东提供数十亿美元的新资本,却没有任何对马斯克先生或公司领导层的问责措施,因为公司“结合了超级投票权股票、强制仲裁、更严格的股东提案规则以及德克萨斯州公司法,将控制权赋予SpaceX首席执行官埃隆·马斯克和其他内部人士。SpaceX还将限制投资者挑战管理层、在法庭起诉以及强制召开代理权争夺的能力”。\n 正如领先的公司法学者所言,“即使是马斯克的崇拜者,也应该对SpaceX的公司治理感到不安”。\n SpaceX的初步招股说明书表明,公司将维持双重股权结构,马斯克先生持有的每一股股票的投票权是向公众发售的每一股股票的10倍。这种不对称性将剥夺股东对重大公司决策(如收购、剥离或重组)的任何权力。正如公司招股说明书所承认的,“马斯克先生将能够控制需要股东批准的事项的结果”。此外,拟议的公司治理结构实质上剥夺了董事会的管理公司权力,使其无法解雇首席执行官:“马斯克只能由B类股东多数投票罢免董事长或首席执行官——而他个人控制该股票类别93.6%的股份——实际上保证了他的职位。”正如《金融时报》社论版所言,“传统的治理制衡几乎完全缺失……[马斯克]将对投票权和董事会拥有几乎不可挑战的控制权”。\n 问题更加复杂的是,“在其他非典型安排中,SpaceX不计划让其董事会多数成员为独立董事”,包括“不使用独立董事委员会来决定高管薪酬,这是大多数公司的做法”。马斯克的地位很可能因其在董事会中强大朋友的存在而得到巩固,包括安东尼奥·格拉西亚斯(Antonio Gracias)和史蒂夫·尤尔韦森(Steve Jurvetson)。据报道,格拉西亚斯先生和尤尔韦森先生与马斯克先生私交甚密,并且是GPS信号市场的竞争对手。这引发了公司治理担忧,并存在违反反垄断法禁止关联董事(即公司董事同时担任其竞争对手董事会成员)的风险。\n SpaceX还试图限制股东通过法院获得法律救济的途径。根据其S-1备案文件,SpaceX计划通过强制大多数股东诉讼进入仲裁程序,使马斯克免受法律风险——这是一个不公开且系统性地偏向公司利益的过程。重要的是,仲裁将是联邦证券法下诉讼的唯一选择,因为德克萨斯州商业法院——SpaceX首选的法律争议审理地——对相关联邦证券法没有管辖权,这与S-1中声称该领域法律“尚未确定”的说法相反。虽然该条款最终可能无法执行,但SEC最近推翻了一项长期立场,即IPO中的强制仲裁条款不符合“公共利益和投资者保护”,这才使这种尝试成为可能。此外,“SpaceX选择了一项条款,仅允许持有公司3%或以上股份的股东提起所谓的‘派生’诉讼,代表公司起诉董事会或首席执行官——就像在更利于股东的特拉华州,一位小投资者提起的特斯拉薪酬投诉那样。如果SpaceX达到预期的1.75万亿美元估值,起诉的股东将需要至少525亿美元的股份。”SpaceX还打算通过提高股东提案门槛来保护马斯克对公司的单方面控制权,禁止其大多数投资者强制在股东大会上进行投票。\n 马斯克先生对SpaceX的权力程度尤其令人担忧,因为他的利益与SpaceX股东和投资者的利益之间不可避免地会产生冲突。公司招股说明书也承认了这一点:在向SEC提交的修订文件中,SpaceX承认,“未来可能在我们与马斯克先生及其拥有或关联的实体之间,就业务交易、潜在竞争活动或其他商业机会等方面产生利益冲突。在正常业务过程中,我们与其中一些公司进行了各种交易。”它继续写道:“马斯克先生或其关联方可能不时了解到某些商业机会(如收购机会或技术发展),并可能将这些机会导向他们投资的其他企业,在这种情况下,[投资者]可能无法了解或无法追求此类机会。”招股说明书还详细说明了马斯克先生——作为对SpaceX负有受托责任的公司董事——如何也可能拥有与SpaceX竞争的其他公司的资产:\n 根据我们的章程,马斯克先生及其关联方不受限制地拥有与我们直接或间接竞争的资产或从事业务,并且没有义务避免从事与我们相同或类似的业务活动或业务线,包括被视为与我们竞争的业务活动或业务线,或与我们的任何客户或供应商开展业务。此外,我们过去曾与马斯克先生关联的实体进行交易,未来也可能继续如此。我们可能选择此类交易,而非追求其他一些股东可能更喜欢或可能比我们选择追求的机会更具增值性的机会。\n SpaceX招股说明书的这些条款表明,其IPO将是史上规模最大的,也可能拥有史上最被操纵的公司结构。如果IPO以其当前形式获批,马斯克在SpaceX拥有的独特且不受约束的权力将对投资者、市场和公众造成严重担忧。此次IPO最终为未来IPO树立了危险的先例。\n 对被动投资者和资本市场的影响\n 关于SpaceX的估值和公司治理担忧,如果其IPO注册声明的生效被加速,将对市场诚信产生重大担忧。对于挑选和选择特定投资的投资者,他们至少能够避免投资于从事风险或不公平行为的公司。但SpaceX的IPO创造了一个新的担忧:主要股市指数正在被操纵,以迫使指数基金中的数百万投资者——这是一种通常成本较低、对散户投资者有吸引力的投资选择——投资SpaceX,并在没有选择的情况下面临SpaceX的重大风险。“分析师估计,在纳入后的几个月内,标普500、纳斯达克100和罗素1000追踪器将保守地强制买入150亿至300亿美元的SpaceX股票,更激进的流通股权重情景则会高得多”。\n 除上述公开交易股票向散户投资者的超额分配外,SpaceX的IPO还将使被动和主动投资者都面临重大风险。\n 主要股指有一套明确的规则来确定是否以及何时纳入新公司。这些规则为股票购买者提供了重要的投资者保护,使其免受新上市IPO的波动性和不确定性影响,并允许市场发现机制在指数纳入之前为公开公司建立公平价格。这些规则通常包括成熟度和可行性要求。例如,标普500要求公司在指数纳入前至少公开交易12个月,并且至少连续四个季度实现盈利。\n 但据报道,SpaceX已游说指数提供商改变其指数纳入规则。指数提供商也照办了,进行了修改,使SpaceX等大型科技公司更容易被快速纳入被动投资者的投资组合。4月,标普道琼斯指数公司宣布正在考虑修改规则,以便更容易让“超大市值”(MegaCap)公司——即股市中最大的公司——快速进入其指数。仅就标普500而言,该公司正在考虑的修改包括将标准的12个月IPO后等待期缩短至6个月,取消标准的10%流通股权要求,并豁免超大市值公司满足所有其他公司都需要满足才能符合资格的财务可行性标准。2026年6月4日,该公司宣布放弃拟议的修改,声明“不应仅基于市值授予财务可行性、成熟度和IWF(可投资权重因子)要求的例外”。除标普道琼斯指数外,尚无关于主要指数撤销为SpaceX做出的修改和例外的大规模报道。2026年5月1日,纳斯达克100实施了一项新的“快速进入”规则,允许按市值排名前40的公司在上市第七天就有资格被纳入。富时罗素(FTSE Russell)也效仿了。正如《华尔街日报》报道的那样,该公司“修改了规则,使新上市的大型公司更容易进入其美国指数,为被动投资者快速获取SpaceX和其他备受瞩目的上市公司的股票打开了大门”。\n 指数提供商对新公开募股的不同处理方式可能导致投资者对股票敞口的预期出现差异。此外,正如一位分析师警告的那样,这些不断变化的政策“可能在‘被动’指数之间造成显著的回报差异”。\n 对于投资于为SpaceX放宽规则的指数基金的投资者,这些修改可能导致他们被迫购买数十亿美元的SpaceX股票,而他们对此没有任何发言权。突然间,美国人的退休储蓄或养老金可能与SpaceX的市值挂钩。股票的普遍性将人为推高其价值,而SpaceX内部人士——得益于允许他们比往常更早出售股票的特殊规则——将能够迅速抛售其股份,让散户投资者接盘。结果可能是巨大的财富向上再分配——即使SpaceX没有盈利。简而言之,这些修改可能使一项金融工程计划得以实施,该计划操纵美国资本市场以 favor 马斯克先生及其盟友。正如一位《金融时报》评论员所言,“为什么标普道琼斯指数公司……似乎在 flirt with 一项放宽规则的修改,以允许埃隆·马斯克的卫星到AI公司快速进入?”这是SEC和指数提供商应该向公众回答的问题。\n 有利于SpaceX的修改不仅限于指数——大型资产管理公司也在做出改变。2026年6月4日,管理着16.4万亿美元资产的富达投资(Fidelity Investments)“将其SpaceX IPO准入要求从高达50万美元大幅削减至仅2,000美元”,为历史上最大的股票首秀之一向数百万散户投资者敞开了大门。因此,SpaceX新IPO的风险不仅限于大型机构投资者,还将波及小型个人投资者,因为此次IPO似乎缺乏通常存在的许多投资者和市场保护。\n 在考虑SpaceX IPO对投资者的风险时,您还必须考虑到,这些风险将因SpaceX股票被纳入主要指数以及通过主要资产管理公司和投资顾问向散户投资者开放而立即被放大。这创造了一种情景:当前SpaceX股东——包括特朗普政府高级官员——可以在危及美国投资者和我们金融稳定的同时使自己致富。\n 其他需要推迟生效的问题\n 除关于SpaceX财务披露、公司治理以及操纵股市指数以利于自身的诸多担忧外,还有三个其他考虑因素需要推迟公司注册文件的生效,并要求SEC进行彻底调查。首先,存在潜在证券法违规的问题,即关于SpaceX初始私人备案的泄露。早在SpaceX于2026年4月1日向SEC提交保密注册声明之前,新闻报道就携带了关于招股说明书内容的信息,并引发了投资者兴趣。如果这些泄露是SpaceX为在IPO前增加市场兴趣而进行的协调尝试的结果,可能构成证券法第5条的违规,该条款禁止“抢跑”(gun-jumping)——在提供注册声明之前出售或宣传股票。法律规定,“除非注册声明对某种证券已生效,否则任何人直接或间接……使用州际贸易或邮件的任何交通或通讯手段或工具,通过任何招股说明书或其他方式出售该证券,均属违法。”由于SpaceX在任何注册声明之前就已受到关于上市的非同寻常的公众关注,SEC应加强对SpaceX IPO策略的审查,以确保公司未违反第5条。\n 其次,存在马斯克先生在X上发布关于公司的声明所引发的市场混乱问题——X是他也拥有的社交媒体平台,现在属于SpaceX的xAI部门。一些金融记者认为,这些声明与SpaceX公开备案文件中的业务信息存在实质性矛盾。无论这些偏差是否重大,马斯克先生以在X上凭一时兴起发布公开声明而闻名,这些声明可以瞬间撼动市场。他还以尽管未实现宏大的业务目标却兑现巨额薪酬方案而闻名。如果这种行为模式持续下去,将对SpaceX的可信度产生重大怀疑,以及其备案的IPO是否充分告知投资者与马斯克先生相关的风险。\n 关于证券法违规和马斯克先生矛盾声明的担忧,足以让SEC推迟SpaceX注册声明的生效,并允许市场有一段冷静期,以更彻底地评估SpaceX IPO的合理性。\n 结论与问题\n SpaceX的IPO似乎为股东和未来公开公司上市呈现了独特且开创先例的风险。公司的会计和财务报告存在令人不安的漏洞,并被今年早些时候发生的大规模且不透明的xAI合并所笼罩。公司的公司治理结构将独特的权力授予其首席执行官,并严重限制股东权利。主要股指在放弃旧规则或制定新规则以允许SpaceX纳入方面的共谋,意味着数十亿美元的被动投资将被迫进入该公司,使退休人员和普通投资者面临风险。\n 简而言之,投资者和公众对SpaceX及其计划如何使用其寻求募集的数十亿美元存在众多未解答的重大问题。SEC不应在未经严格审查SpaceX财务报表、公司治理结构及其可能对散户投资者(包括通过指数基金)的影响的情况下,加速SpaceX注册声明的生效。\n 我要求您在2026年6月23日之前,对以下问题提供详细答复:\n SEC打算如何评估SpaceX关于其估值的主张,基于其对太空旅行、多行星居住和“将意识之光延伸到星辰”等主张?请包括关于以下方面的具体信息: a. 任何潜在的高估来源 b. SpaceX提出的估值(1.75万亿美元)与其营收(每年190亿美元)之间的差异\n SEC确保投资者获得清晰准确披露的计划是什么,尽管存在复杂的会计问题?请提供关于以下方面的具体信息: a. 近期xAI收购的估值 b. 联合创始人离职的影响 c. SpaceX各子公司(包括发射、星链和xAI)的营收和亏损,包括星链用户群的行业标准信息 d. 承销银行之间任何潜在的利益冲突 e. SpaceX审计师的严谨性和独立性,包括任何潜在的利益冲突 f. 任何可能对SpaceX股票价值产生重大影响的预期未来合并或重大交易\n SEC是否认为,从保密备案草案泄露的信息已实质性增加了市场对SpaceX首次公开募股的兴趣?\n 鉴于有报道称保密备案草案的信息被不当泄露,可能构成“抢跑”,SEC是否考虑过推迟SpaceX的首次公开募股?\n SEC在评估IPO时,计划如何考虑SpaceX的公司结构——该结构将几乎完全的控制权授予一个人?请提供关于以下方面的具体信息: a. 其双重股权结构 b. 埃隆·马斯克对投票权的控制 c. 董事会成员的独立性,鉴于他们与控股股东马斯克先生的个人和业务关系 d. SpaceX与马斯克先生控制的其他实体之间潜在的利益冲突交易\n SEC计划如何保护被动投资者免受SpaceX股票的风险,包括: a. 机构投资者(如养老基金),以及 b. 被动指数基金的股东\n SEC是否会寻求SpaceX关于州法院对《交易法》索赔管辖权结论的法律依据?\n 此致\n 伊丽莎白·沃伦 银行、住房与城市事务委员会 资深成员(Ranking Member)\n TIM SCOTT SOUTH CAROLINA, CHAIRMAN\n ELIZABETH WARREN MASSACHUSETTS, RANKING MEMBER\n MIKE CRAPO, IDAHO\n JACK REED, RHODE ISLAND\n MIKE ROUNDS, SOUTH DAKOTA\n MARK R. WARNER, VIRGINIA\n THOM TILLIS, NORTH CAROLINA\n CHRIS VAN HOLLEN, MARYLAND\n JOHN KENNEDY, LOUISIANA\n CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO, NEVADA\n BILL HAGERTY, TENNESSEE\n TINA SMITH, MINNESOTA\n CYNTHIA LUMMIS, WYOMING\n RAPHAEL G. WARNOCK, GEORGIA\n KATIE BOYD BRITT, ALABAMA\n ANDY KIM, NEW JERSEY\n PETE RICKETTS, NEBRASKA\n RUBEN GALLEGO, ARIZONA\n JIM BANKS, INDIANA\n LISA BLUNT ROCHESTER, DELAWARE\n KEVIN CRAMER, NORTH DAKOTA\n ANGELA D. ALSOBROOKS, MARYLAND\n BERNIE MORENO, OHIO\n DAVID McCORMICK, PENNSYLVANIA\n JANIE FAULKNER, STAFF DIRECTOR\n JON DONENBERG, DEMOCRATIC STAFF DIRECTOR\n United States SenateCOMMITTEE ON BANKING, HOUSING, AND URBAN AFFAIRSWASHINGTON, DC 20510-6075\n June 9, 2026\n The Honorable Paul Atkins\n Chair\n U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission\n 100 F Street NE\n Washington, DC 20549\n Dear Chair Atkins,\n I write with extreme concern regarding the upcoming initial public offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (“SpaceX”). According to reports, SpaceX, an aerospace and artificial intelligence company owned by Elon Musk, seeks to target a valuation of upwards of $2 trillion and raise up to $75 billion from investors in its offering later this month – making it “the largest stock-market debut in history.” However, this IPO appears to present significant risks to ordinary investors and their retirement savings – while carrying enormous advantages for SpaceX insiders, including senior Trump Administration officials.\n The risks associated with SpaceX‘s public offering are caused by a confluence of concerns revealed by the company’s filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC,” or “the Commission”) and other public reporting: first, “SpaceX is expected to offer stock at roughly 100 times 2025 revenue — a valuation multiple with little precedent, and one that requires numerous leaps of faith around both the AI and space theses;” second, a non-traditional governance structure that will leave SpaceX‘s CEO, Elon Musk, with an unprecedented level of power, and investors with significantly fewer rights than those traditionally offered to purchasers of public shares; and third, major stock index providers rewriting their rules to fast track SpaceX’s entry into their indexes — and into the investment funds that power millions of Americans‘ retirement savings.\n The net result could be disastrous: a scenario where retirees‘ and families’ investment accounts take a hit if SpaceX‘s valuation falters, with little recourse for any corporate misconduct, while the wealthiest man on earth becomes even wealthier due to a lack of oversight. The SEC’s core mission is to protect investors and maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets. Given the unprecedented threats to investor protection and market integrity posed by the biggest IPO in history, you must delay any eventual acceleration of the registration statement‘s effectiveness accordingly. Before the company is allowed to go public, the SEC must investigate whether index funds and other financial entities involved in SpaceX’s IPO are adequately protecting investors, and the company must fill disclosure gaps related to valuation, ensure risks and details related to its concentrated governance structure are clear to investors, and abandon mandatory arbitration to provide shareholders whose rights are otherwise gutted in this structure a minimum avenue for recourse.\n SpaceX‘s IPO Process and the SEC’s Role\n SpaceX has been privately held since its founding by Elon Musk in 2002, raising approximately $9 billion in equity capital through private markets. Remaining private has allowed Mr. Musk to retain extensive control over the company. Mr. Musk, in addition to being the founder, serves as Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer, and Chairman of the Board, in addition to being the controlling shareholder. Earlier this year, SpaceX combined with another privately held company founded and controlled by Mr. Musk, xAI, in “the biggest merger in history... to create a $1.25 trillion giant.” SpaceX filed its IPO registration statement with the SEC on May 20, 2026, having reportedly filed a confidential registration around April 1, 2026. If the SpaceX IPO goes through at the target valuations, the “blockbuster listing will unlock vast new wealth for SpaceX executives and investors ... But all of the holdings pale in comparison to the riches that Musk will unlock. He holds [vested shares] which could be worth about $700bn. A successful listing could see him become the world‘s first trillionaire.”\n Before allowing a company to sell its shares to the public, the Commission is required to consider “the public interest and the protection of investors.” In so doing, the Commission may review the company‘s preliminary prospectus “for compliance with the applicable accounting standards and the disclosure requirements of the federal securities laws and regulations.” The massive size of the SpaceX IPO alone, under normal circumstances, would justify careful SEC review and attention to investor needs. But these are not normal circumstances: a number of additional factors exacerbate concerns and require action by the SEC to meet its investor protection and market integrity mandates by delaying the effectiveness of SpaceX’s registration statement.\n SpaceX‘s Valuation and Accounting\n The value of SpaceX shares – now and in the foreseeable future – appears to be based on a uniquely speculative series of events. According to the Financial Times, SpaceX‘s finances today “are of no use in working out what the company is worth,” in part because of the inherent challenge of valuing activities that don’t yet exist but could be part of the growth of a company whose lofty mission is to “extend the light of consciousness to the stars.” According to a report from Morningstar, SpaceX may be worth less than half of the $1.75 trillion valuation it seeks.\n Indeed, “[a]t the valuation of $1.75tn previously reported by Financial Times, SpaceX would be the U.S. stock market‘s seventh-largest company. However, when ranked by its revenue of $19 billion a year, it would be 200th, on par with Lucky Charms cereal maker General Mills.” The market has “never before had to price a stock so speculative yet so large,” and “[t]he big question is whether a valuation as large as $1.8 trillion can be sustained in public markets.” Part of the problem is the impossibility of accurately valuing SpaceX’s lofty goals, including space travel and interplanetary habitation. But it is also the product of the company‘s consistent negative profitability, and on its failure to meet past goals. As a result, market analysts have raised concerns about the math underlying SpaceX’s target valuation, calling it “nonsensical,” “smoke-and-mirrors accounting,” and “truly out of this world.” If that valuation cannot be sustained, the investors who have chosen to buy in at lofty valuations – or will be forced to do so because of their investments in index funds, that are themselves based on indexes that have amended their rules to include SpaceX – will pay the price.\n Additionally, the IPO‘s value is set in part by SpaceX’s 2026 merger with xAI. Since Elon Musk was on both sides of the transaction, “he negotiate[d] the deal with himself, set the relative valuations himself, sign[ed] the merger agreement, close[d] the deal, and then [told] the boards and shareholders about it.” This gave Mr. Musk an opportunity to inflate the valuation of xAI in excess of its assets – in other words, unilaterally deciding the value of his own transaction – and roll this into the upcoming IPO. The SEC should evaluate whether transactions and other relationships between SpaceX and xAI (as well as the full web of other companies under Elon Musk‘s control) present risks to investors from inaccurate or misleading accounting or valuation. Given the range of both active and passive investors who will be exposed to SpaceX’s risk, valuations that are not supported by fundamentals may threaten the integrity and stability of our capital markets.\n The SpaceX-xAI merger is one in a series of common-control transactions between different business entities controlled by Mr. Musk – raising questions about any future plans SpaceX might have to integrate with Musk-controlled firms. For example, should Tesla and SpaceX merge as the business press has speculated, it could instantly trigger Mr. Musk‘s $1 trillion Tesla pay package due to a change in control provision that voids the performance conditions previously required to unlock the shares. Converting these new Tesla shares into new SpaceX shares could have significant implications for SpaceX shareholders. If plans do in fact exist to merge Tesla and SpaceX, such plans should be disclosed to prospective investors, as they should be considered materially important to the business strategy of the company and subsequent value of the public offering. Given that SpaceX’s S-1 makes no mention of the effect such a merger would have on SpaceX‘s valuation – even as it acknowledges that business transactions with Mr. Musk’s other ventures may occur – the SEC should conduct a thorough inquiry into Mr. Musk‘s future intentions regarding the ownership structure of his many powerful businesses before accelerating the effectiveness of SpaceX’s registration statement.\n Post-IPO Corporate Governance\n The IPO also poses concerns because SpaceX‘s post-IPO governance structure erodes fundamental shareholder rights and vests an extraordinary level of corporate power in Mr. Musk. Publicly traded companies are meant to be accountable to their shareholders. The SpaceX IPO will flip this model on its head, with shareholders providing billions of dollars in new capital with no accountability measures for Mr. Musk or company leadership, as the company “[combines] supervoting shares, mandatory arbitration, stricter rules on shareholder proposals and Texas corporate law to give control to SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and other insiders. SpaceX also will limit investors’ ability to challenge management, sue in court, and force proxy contests.”\n As leading corporate law scholars put it, “even Musk admirers should be troubled by SpaceX‘s governance.”\n SpaceX‘s preliminary prospectus indicates that the company will maintain a dual-class share structure, with each share held by Mr. Musk holding 10 times as much voting power as a share of the class offered to the public. Such asymmetry will deny shareholders any power over major corporate decisions like acquisitions, divestments, or restructuring. As the company’s prospectus admits, “Mr. Musk will be able to control the outcome of matters requiring shareholder approval.” In addition, the proposed governance structure essentially eliminates the Board of Directors‘ authority to manage the company, stripping it of the ability to fire the Chief Executive Officer: “Musk can only be removed as chair or chief executive by a majority vote of the class B shareholders — and personally controls 93.6 per cent of the share class — in effect guaranteeing his position.” As the editorial board of the Financial Times put it, “[t]raditional governance checks are almost entirely absent.... [Musk] will have a virtually unchallengeable grip on voting rights and the board.”\n Compounding the problem is that “among [other] atypical arrangements, SpaceX does not plan to have the majority of its board be independent directors,” including “not us[ing] a committee of independent board members to determine executive compensation, as most companies do.” Musk‘s position is likely to be entrenched by the presence of his powerful friends on the board of directors, including Antonio Gracias and Steve Jurvetson. Mr. Gracias and Mr. Jurvetson are reportedly personally close to Mr. Musk and competitors in the market for GPS signals. This raises corporate governance concerns, and runs the risk of violating antitrust laws banning interlocking directorates in which corporate directors sit on the boards of their competitors.\n SpaceX is also attempting to limit shareholders‘ access to the courts for legal remedies. According to its S-1 filing, SpaceX plans to insulate Musk from legal risk by forcing most shareholders’ suits into arbitration, a process hidden from public view and systematically tilted in favor of the company‘s interests. Importantly, arbitration would be the only option for suits under federal securities law, because the Texas Business Court – SpaceX’s preferred forum for legal disputes – does not have jurisdiction over the relevant federal securities laws, contrary to the S-1‘s assertion that the law in this area is “unsettled.” While the provision may not ultimately be enforceable, such an attempt has been made possible by the SEC’s recent reversal of a longstanding position that forced arbitration clauses in IPOs were not in “the public interest and protection of investors.” Furthermore, “SpaceX has opted for a provision that allows only shareholders holding 3 per cent or more of a company‘s shares to bring a so-called ’derivative‘ lawsuit on behalf of the company suing the board or chief executive, like the Tesla pay complaint filed by a tiny investor in the more shareholder-hospitable Delaware. Should SpaceX hit its expected $1.75tn valuation, a suing shareholder would need a stake of at least $52.5bn.” SpaceX also intends to protect Musk’s unilateral control over the company by raising the threshold for shareholder proposals, prohibiting most of its investors from forcing a vote at a shareholder meeting.\n The degree of Mr. Musk‘s power over SpaceX is especially concerning because of the conflicts that will inevitably arise between his interests and those of SpaceX’s shareholders and investors. The company‘s prospectus says as much: In its amended filing with the SEC, SpaceX admits that “[c]onflicts of interest could arise in the future between us, on the one hand, and Mr. Musk and entities owned by or affiliated with him, on the other hand, concerning among other things, business transactions, potential competitive activities or other business opportunities. In the normal course of business, we have engaged in a variety of transactions with some of these companies.” It continues: “Mr. Musk or his affiliates may become aware, from time to time, of certain business opportunities (such as acquisition opportunities or technological developments) and may direct such opportunities to other businesses in which they have invested, in which case [investors] may not become aware of or otherwise have the ability to pursue such opportunity.” The prospectus also details how Mr. Musk – a corporate director with fiduciary obligations to SpaceX – may also own assets in other companies that compete with SpaceX:\n Under our charter, Mr. Musk and his affiliates are not restricted from owning assets or engaging in businesses that compete directly or indirectly with us and will not have any duty to refrain from engaging, directly or indirectly, in the same or similar business activities or lines of business as us, including those business activities or lines of business deemed to be competing with us, or doing business with any of our customers or vendors. Moreover, we have in the past entered into, and may in the future enter into, transactions with entities affiliated with Mr. Musk. We may enter into such transactions in lieu of pursuing other opportunities that some other shareholders may prefer or that may prove to be more accretive than the opportunities we elect to pursue.\n These provisions of SpaceX‘s prospectus indicate that its IPO will be the biggest in history and may also have the most rigged corporate structure in history. Should the IPO be approved in its current form, the uniquely unchecked power Musk will have at SpaceX creates serious concerns for investors, markets, and the public at large. This IPO ultimately sets a dangerous precedent for future IPOs.\n Effects on Passive Investors and the Capital Markets\n The valuation and corporate governance concerns regarding SpaceX raise significant concerns about market integrity should its IPO‘s effectiveness be accelerated. For investors who pick and choose their specific investments, they at least are able to avoid investing in companies that engage in risky or unfair practices. But the SpaceX IPO creates a new concern: that major stock market indexes are being rigged in a way that would force millions of investors in passive index funds – a generally lower cost investment option that can be attractive to retail investors – to invest in SpaceX and face exposure to SpaceX’s significant risks with no choice in the matter. “Analysts estimate conservative forced buying of $15 billion to $30 billion across S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 and Russell 1000 trackers in the months after inclusion, with more aggressive float-weighted scenarios running far higher.”\n In addition to the above-average allocation of publicly traded stocks to retail investors, SpaceX‘s IPO will expose both passive and active investors to significant risk.\n Major stock indexes have a clear set of rules to determine whether and when to add new companies. These rules provide important investor protections for stock purchasers from the volatility and uncertainty of newly-public IPOs and allow market discovery to establish a fair price for public companies prior to index inclusion. The rules typically include seasoning and viability requirements. For example, the S&P 500 has required that companies be publicly traded for at least twelve months and have at least four quarters of positive income prior to index inclusion.\n But SpaceX has reportedly lobbied index providers to change the rules for inclusion on their indices. And the index providers have complied, with changes that would make it easier for large technology companies like SpaceX to be fast-tracked into passive investors‘ portfolios. In April, S&P Dow Jones announced it was considering changes to its rules to more easily enable “MegaCap” companies – the largest companies on the stock market – to be fast-tracked onto its indexes. For the S&P 500 alone, the firm was considering changes that included reducing the standard 12-month post-IPO waiting period to six months, eliminating the standard 10 percent float requirements, and exempting MegaCap companies from the financial viability criteria that all other companies are expected to meet in order to qualify. On June 4, 2026, the company announced it was foregoing the proposed changes, stating that “exceptions to the financial viability, seasoning, and IWF (investable weight factor) requirements should not be granted solely based on market capitalization.” Other than S&P Dow Jones, there has not been reporting of major indexes reversing changes and exceptions to long-standing rules that will be made for SpaceX. On May 1, 2026, the Nasdaq 100 implemented a new “fast entry” rule, which would allow companies in the top 40 by market capitalization to be eligible for inclusion on their seventh day of trading. FTSE Russell has followed suit. As the Wall Street Journal reports, the firm “changed its rules to make it easier for freshly minted megacaps to enter its U.S. indexes, opening the door for passive investors to quickly access shares in SpaceX and other high-profile listings.”\n A divergence among index providers‘ approaches to new public offerings may lead to different investor expectations around stock exposure. Additionally, as one analyst warned, these shifting policies “could create significant return dispersion [between] ’passive‘ indexes.”\n For investors in index funds that do bend the rules for SpaceX, the changes may lead to the forced purchase of billions of dollars of SpaceX stock without them having any say in the matter. Suddenly, American retirement savings or pensions may be tied to SpaceX‘s market capitalization. The stock’s ubiquity would artificially jack up its value, and SpaceX insiders – thanks to special rules allowing them to sell their shares sooner than usual – would be able to quickly sell off their shares, leaving retail investors holding the bag. What results could be a massive upward redistribution of wealth – even should SpaceX not be profitable. In short, these changes may enable a scheme of financial engineering that rigs America‘s capital markets in favor of Mr. Musk and his allies. As one Financial Times commentator put it, “Why on earth is [S&P Dow Jones Indices]... seemingly flirting with a rule-bending change to allow Elon Musk’s satellites-to-AI company a quick entry?” This is a question the SEC and the index providers should answer for the public.\n Changes benefitting SpaceX are not limited to indexes – they are also being made by large asset managers. On June 4, 2026, Fidelity Investments, a firm with $16.4 trillion in administered assets, “slashed its SpaceX IPO entry requirement from as much as $500,000 to just $2,000,” opening one of the biggest stock debuts in history to millions of retail investors. The risk from SpaceX‘s new IPO will therefore not be limited to large institutional investors, but also small individual investors as the IPO appears to lack many of the investor and market protections that are typically in place.\n As you consider the risks to investors from SpaceX‘s IPO, you must also factor that such risks will be immediately magnified by the inclusion of SpaceX stock on the major indexes and its availability to retail investors through major asset managers and investment advisors. This creates a scenario where current SpaceX shareholders – including senior Trump Administration officials – can enrich themselves while endangering American investors and the stability of our financial markets.\n Other Issues Warranting Delayed Effectiveness\n In addition to the multitude of concerns regarding SpaceX‘s financial disclosures, corporate governance, and efforts to rig stock market indexes in its favor, three other considerations warrant delaying the effectiveness of the company’s registration documents and demand thorough investigation from the SEC. First, there is the matter of potential Securities Act violations in the form of leaks regarding SpaceX‘s initial private filing. Well before SpaceX’s confidential SEC registration statement was filed on April 1, 2026, news reports carried information about the contents of the prospectus and generated investor interest. If these leaks were the result of a coordinated attempt by SpaceX to increase market interest in advance of an IPO, it might constitute a violation of Section 5 of the Securities Act, which prohibits “gun-jumping” – selling or publicizing shares before a registration statement has been provided. The law provides that “Unless a registration statement is in effect as to a security, it shall be unlawful for any person, directly or indirectly ... to make use of any means or instruments of transportation or communication in interstate commerce or of the mails to sell such security through the use or medium of any prospectus or otherwise.” Because of the extraordinary publicity surrounding SpaceX going public in the advance of any registration statement, the SEC should increase scrutiny of SpaceX‘s IPO tactics to ensure that the company has not violated Section 5.\n Second, there is the market confusion that has ensued from Mr. Musk making statements regarding the company on X – the social media platform he also owns, now under the xAI segment of SpaceX. It appears to some financial journalists that these statements materially contradict business information included in SpaceX‘s public filing. Whether or not the deviations are material, Mr. Musk is well-known to have a propensity to make public statements on X on whims that can instantly move markets. He is also known to cash out on large pay packages despite not meeting lofty business goals. If this pattern of behavior continues, it casts significant doubt on SpaceX’s credibility, and whether its IPO as filed sufficiently informs investors of the risks involved with Mr. Musk.\n Concerns regarding a Securities Act violation and contradictory statements made by Mr. Musk give enough reason for the SEC to delay the effectiveness of SpaceX‘s registration, and allow the markets a cooling-off period to more thoroughly evaluate the soundness of SpaceX’s IPO.\n Conclusion and Questions\n The SpaceX IPO appears to present a unique and precedent-setting risk for shareholders and future public company offerings. The company‘s accounting and financial reports contain troubling gaps, and are clouded by the massive and opaque xAI merger that occurred earlier this year. The company’s corporate governance structure vests unique power in its CEO and severely limits shareholders‘ rights. And the complicity of major stock indices in waiving old rules or creating new ones to allow SpaceX’s inclusion means that billions of dollars of passive investments will be forced into the company, putting retirees and ordinary investors at risk.\n In short, there are a multitude of unanswered material questions investors and the public have about SpaceX and what it is likely to do with the billions it seeks to raise. The SEC should not accelerate the effectiveness of SpaceX‘s registration without serious scrutiny of SpaceX’s financial statements, governance structure, and the impact it may have on retail investors, including through index funds.\n I request detailed answers to the following questions no later than June 23, 2026:\n How does the SEC intend to evaluate SpaceX‘s claims about its valuation on the basis of its claims regarding such things as space travel, multiplanetary habitation, and “extending the light of consciousness to the stars”? Please include specific information about: a. Any potential sources of overvaluation b. The discrepancy between SpaceX’s proffered valuation ($1.75 trillion) and its revenues ($19 billion per year)\n What is the SEC‘s plan to ensure investors receive clear and accurate disclosures despite complex accounting issues? Please provide specific information about: a. The valuation of the recent xAI acquisition b. The impact of co-founder departures c. The revenues and losses of each of SpaceX’s subsidiaries, including Launch, Starlink, and xAI, including industry-standard information on Starlink‘s subscriber base d. Any potential conflicts of interest among underwriting banks e. The rigor and independence of SpaceX’s auditors, including any potential conflicts of interest f. Any intended future mergers or major transactions that could have a material effect on the value of SpaceX stock\n Does the SEC believe that leaked information from the draft confidential filing has substantially increased market interest in SpaceX‘s initial public offering?\n Has the SEC considered delaying SpaceX‘s initial public offering, given reports that information from the draft confidential filing was leaked improperly and could be considered “gun-jumping”?\n How does the SEC plan to account for SpaceX‘s corporate structure, which vests nearly complete control in one person, in its evaluation of the IPO? Please provide specific information about: a. Its dual-class share structure b. Elon Musk’s control of voting shares c. The independence of board members, given their personal and business relationships with Musk, the controlling shareholder d. Potential conflicted transactions between SpaceX and other entities Musk controls\n What does the SEC plan to do to protect passive investors from the risks of SpaceX stock, including: a. Institutional investors (like pension funds), and b. Stockholders of passive index funds\n Will the SEC seek the legal basis for SpaceX‘s conclusion that the jurisdiction of state courts over Exchange Act claims is unsettled?\n Sincerely,\n [Signature]\n Elizabeth Warren\n Ranking Member\n Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs\n Footnotes:\n Bloomberg, “What to Know About the SpaceX IPO,” Anthony Hughes, May 29, 2026, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-29/what-to-know-about-the-spacex-ipo.\n Bloomberg, “Trump Officials Held Millions of Dollars of SpaceX Ahead of IPO,” Annie Massa, Sophie Alexander, and Bill Allison, June 3, 2026, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-03/spacex-ipo-poised-to-enrich-trump-officials-who-hold-millions-in-stock.\n Financial Times, “More takeaways from an S-1 for the ages,” Craig Coben, May 26, 2026.\n Bloomberg, “SpaceX‘s Capital Needs Are Out of This World” Chris Bryant, June 3, 2026, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-06-03/spacex-ipo-elon-musk-capital-needs-are-out-of-this-world.\n SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026039276/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm.\n New York Times, “The Numbers, and Questions, Behind Musk‘s Mega-Merger,” Andrew Ross Sorkin et al., February 3, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/business/dealbook/spacex-xai-merger.html.\n SpaceX, Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, May 20, 2026, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm.\n Reuters, “SpaceX files for IPO, sources say, offering investors stake in Musk‘s space ambitions,” Echo Wang, Manya Saini, and Joey Roulette, April 1, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-registers-take-rocket-maker-public-blockbuster-ipo-bloomberg-news-reports-2026-04-01/.\n Financial Times, “Inside SpaceX‘s audacious IPO plan,” Ryan McMorrow et al., May 20, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/a59be3cf-eee2-4b10-9c86-b6e4dc0dbbdb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.\n 15 U.S.C. § 77h; 17 C.F.R. § 230.461(b).\n U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, “Filing Review Process,” Sept. 27, 2019.\n Financial Times, “How to make sense of SpaceX‘s nonsensical valuation,” May 21, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/58fcca43-9195-49e2-b1c3-0e3bfb0147cd?syn-25a6b1a6=1.\n CNBC, “SpaceX is worth less than half of its $1.75 trillion IPO target, Morningstar says,” Joseph Wilkins, June 3, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/morningstar-spacex-ipo-target-price-nasdaq.html.\n Financial Times, “How to make sense of SpaceX‘s nonsensical valuation,” May 21, 2026.\n Id.\n Bloomberg, “What to Know About the SpaceX IPO,” Anthony Hughes, May 29, 2026.\n Fortune, “Top analyst has harsh words for SpaceX debut: ‘We recommend that investors avoid this IPO’,” Shawn Tully, May 29, 2026, https://fortune.com/2026/05/29/spacex-ipo-should-i-buy-bear-case-david-trainer/.\n New York Times, “How SpaceX Is Structured to Favor Elon Musk,” Ryan Mac, May 26, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/26/technology/spacex-elon-musk-pay-board-governance.html.\n Financial Times, “How to make sense of SpaceX‘s nonsensical valuation,” May 21, 2026.\n The Motley Fool, “Honestly, the SpaceX Prospectus Is Far Worse Than I Imagined,” Sean Williams, May 26, 2026, https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/05/26/the-spacex-prospectus-is-far-worse-than-i-imagined/.\n Fortune, “Top analyst has harsh words for SpaceX debut: ‘We recommend that investors avoid this IPO’,” Shawn Tully, May 29, 2026.\n Bloomberg, “Musk‘s Moonshot Merger,” Matt Levine, February 3, 2026.\n Forbes, “Elon Musk,” https://www.forbes.com/profile/elon-musk/.\n Fortune, “Elon Musk‘s SpaceX buys xAI in stunning deal valued at $1.25 trillion ahead of looming IPO,” Amanda Gerut, February 2, 2026, https://fortune.com/2026/02/02/elon-musk-spacex-xai-ipo-trillion/.\n Forbes, “Could Musk Merge SpaceX And Tesla? Here‘s What Analysts—And Betting Markets—Say,” Ty Roush, May 27, 2026, https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2026/05/27/could-musk-merge-spacex-and-tesla-heres-what-analysts-and-betting-markets-say/; CNBC, “Will Elon Musk eventually merge SpaceX with Tesla? Speculation is building,” Ananya Chetia, May 21, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/will-elon-musk-eventually-merge-spacex-with-tesla-speculation-builds.html.\n Yahoo! Finance, “SpaceX-Tesla Merger Could Trigger Elon Musk‘s $1 Trillion Pay Package: Report,” Badar Shaikh, June 2, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-tesla-merger-could-trigger-123106691.html.\n SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, p. 57.\n Reuters, “The SpaceX IPO and the lost battle for shareholder rights,” Ross Kerber, May 13, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/spacex-ipo-lost-battle-shareholder-rights-rosskerber-2026-05-13/.\n Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance, “Even Musk Admirers Should Be Troubled by SpaceX‘s Governance,” Lucian Bebchuk and Kobi Kastiel, June 2, 2026, https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2026/06/02/even-musk-admirers-should-be-troubled-by-spacexs-governance/.\n SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, p. 2.\n Id.\n Financial Times, “Inside SpaceX‘s audacious IPO plan,” Ryan McMorrow et al., May 20, 2026.\n Financial Times, Editorial, “To infinity and beyond, with the SpaceX IPO,” May 22, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/0e5ab16c-957e-44d6-aa16-fe23412ef6df?syn-25a6b1a6=1.\n New York Times, “How SpaceX Is Structured to Favor Elon Musk,” Ryan Mac, May 26, 2026.\n Wall Street Journal, “The Money and Drugs That Tie Elon Musk to Some Tesla Directors,” Kirsten Grind et al., February 3, 2024, https://www.wsj.com/tech/elon-musk-tesla-money-drugs-board-61af9ac4.\n “XONA Space Systems — Powerful Precise GPS,” Steve Jurvetson, May 8, 2024, https://steve.blog/2024/05/08/xona-space-systems-powerful-precise-gps/; PR Newswire, “Xona Raises $92M to Rebuild Satellite Navigation for a New Era,” June 26, 2025, https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/xona-raises-92m-to-rebuild-satellite-navigation-for-a-new-era-302491586.html; PC Magazine, “SpaceX to FCC: We Can Supply a GPS Alternative Through Starlink,” Michael Kan, May 14, 2025, https://www.pcmag.com/news/spacex-to-fcc-we-can-supply-a-gps-alternative-through-starlink.\n 15 U.S.C. § 19.\n SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, pp. 63-64.\n New York Times, “How SpaceX Is Structured to Favor Elon Musk,” Ryan Mac, May 26, 2026; Capital Forum, “Transcript of Conference Call on Forced Arbitration and Corporate Power in the Courts with Brendan Ballou,” May 12, 2026, https://thecapitolforum.com/resource/transcript-of-conference-call-on-forced-arbitration-and-corporate-power-in-the-courts-with-brendan-ballou/.\n 15 U.S.C. § 78aa (giving federal courts exclusive jurisdiction over claims brought under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934).\n SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, p. 63.\n U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, “Sunshine Act Notice,” September 10, 2025, https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/meetings-events/sunshine-act-notice-open-meeting-091725.\n Financial Times, “SpaceX to drive a Cybertruck through corporate governance norms,” Sujeet Indap, May 26, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/7f34d58b-da81-4778-bca1-7aa89b08afca?syn-25a6b1a6=1.\n Reuters, “The SpaceX IPO and the lost battle for shareholder rights,” Ross Kerber, May 13, 2026; TradingKey, “SpaceX IPO: Musk Controls 85.1% Voting Power, Shareholders Waive Jury Trials and Class Actions,” Jay Qian, May 21, 2026, https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261919584-elonmusk-spacex-ipo-tradingkey.\n SpaceX, Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, June 1, 2026, p. 57.\n Id.\n Id.\n Social Science Research Network, “The Growth and Consequences of Index Investing,” Anne-Florence Allard et al., January 12, 2026, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6056574.\n Yahoo! Finance, “SpaceX IPO could hit popular index funds — and your 401(k) — in as little as 5 trading days as indexes relax their rules,” Rudro Chakrabarti, June 1, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-ipo-could-hit-popular-101500534.html.\n Id.\n Bloomberg, “Index Funds Can‘t Say No to SpaceX,” Matt Levine, May 26, 2026, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-05-26/index-funds-can-t-say-no-to-spacex; Financial Times, “Et tu, S&P 500?,” March 26, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/59adbe42-ca30-47f3-9cda-5415945e9368.\n Business Insider, “Here‘s when SpaceX could show up in major indexes and popular ETFs after its IPO,” Naomi Buchanan, May 24, 2026, https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-ipo-index-investing-etfs-spy-vti-qqq-spcx-stock-2026-5; CNBC, “Elon Musk’s SpaceX weighs Nasdaq listing after seeking early index entry, Reuters sources say,” March 10, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/10/elon-musks-spacex-weighs-nasdaq-listing-after-seeking-early-index-entry.html.\n Yahoo! Finance, “Elon Musk‘s SpaceX Could Be Fast-Tracked Into S&P 500 After IPO Under Proposed Rule Changes,” Badir Shaikh, May 2, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/elon-musks-spacex-could-fast-180121306.html.\n Bloomberg, “Index Funds Can‘t Say No to SpaceX,” Matt Levine, May 26, 2026.\n Id.\n S&P Dow Jones Indices, “S&P Dow Jones Indices Consultation on Treatment of MegaCap Companies,” press release, April 30, 2026, https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20260430-1483123/1483123_spdji-us-indices-megacaps-consult-20260430.pdf.\n Yahoo! Finance, “SpaceX Faces Delay to S&P 500 Inclusion After Index Provider Keeps Existing Criteria (SPCX),” Fiona Craig, June 5, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-faces-delay-p-500-100109864.html.\n Yahoo! Finance, “Buckle Up, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Index Fund Investors. SpaceX Could Soon Become 1 of Your Largest Positions,” Daniel Foelber, May 31, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/buckle-p-500-nasdaq-index-162000546.html.\n FTSE Russell, “Consultation for the Russell US Equity Indexes on the timing of IPOs and the treatment of companies with a high free float market capitalization,” February 2026.\n Wall Street Journal, “FTSE Russell Latest to Make U.S. Index Inclusion Easier Ahead of SpaceX IPO,” Joe Stonor, May 27, 2026, https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/ftse-russell-latest-to-make-u-s-index-inclusion-easier-ahead-of-spacex-ipo-35157adf.\n Post on X by Eric Balchunas, June 4, 2026, https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/2062647912065044532?s=20.\n CNBC, “SpaceX insiders will get to sell shares earlier than usual after the IPO,” Leslie Picker, May 21, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/spacex-insiders-will-get-to-sell-shares-earlier-than-usual-after-the-ipo.html.\n Financial Times, “Et tu, S&P 500?,” Robin Wigglesworth, March 26, 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/59adbe42-ca30-47f3-9cda-5415945e9368.\n RIABiz, “Fidelity soars to $16.4 trillion of assets, a 16% jump of $2.3 trillion for 12 months, and widens gap on BlackRock and Schwab,” Brooke Southall, August 14, 2025, https://riabiz.com/a/2025/8/15/fidelity-soars-to-164-trillion-of-assets-a-16-jump-of-23-trillion-for-12-months-and-widens-gap-on-blackrock-and-schwab.\n Yahoo! Finance, “Fidelity Cuts SpaceX IPO Eligibility by 99%, But 5 Rules Could Cost You Access,” Lockridge Okoth, June 4, 2026, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/fidelity-cuts-spacex-ipo-eligibility-183319186.html.\n Bloomberg, “Trump Officials Held Millions of Dollars of SpaceX Ahead of IPO,” Annie Massa, Sophie Alexander, and Bill Allison, June 3, 2026.\n New York Times, “SpaceX Files to Go Public, Setting Stage for Huge I.P.O.,” Ryan Mac, Lauren Hirsch, and Maureen Farrell, April 1, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/technology/spacex-ipo-elon-musk.html.\n See, e.g., Reuters, “Exclusive: Elon Musk‘s SpaceX weighs Nasdaq listing after seeking early index entry, sources say,” Anirban Sen and Echo Wang, March 10, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/elon-musks-spacex-weighs-nasdaq-listing-after-seeking-early-index-entry-sources-2026-03-10/; Reuters, “Exclusive: Musk rewrites IPO playbook with large slice of SpaceX stock for retail investors, source says,” Echo Wang, Milana Vinn, and Sabrina Valle, March 26, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/musk-rewrites-ipo-playbook-with-large-slice-spacex-stock-retail-investors-source-2026-03-26/.\n Cornell Law School Legal Information Institute, “Gun Jumping,” https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/gun_jumping.\n 15 U.S.C. § 77e; 17 C.F.R. § 230.135.\n Forbes, “Elon Musk‘s xAI Buys X — Here’s What That Means For You,” Kate O‘Flaherty, March 31, 2025, https://www.forbes.com/sites/kateoflahertyuk/2025/03/31/elon-musks-xai-buys-x-heres-what-that-means-for-you/.\n CNBC, “SpaceX skeptics have added reason for concern after Musk comments diverge from IPO filing,” Lora Kolodny, May 29, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/spacex-skeptics-concerned-as-musk-comments-diverge-from-ipo-filing.html.\n CNBC, “Elon Musk‘s tweets are moving markets — and some investors are worried,” Sam Shead, January 29, 2021.\n New York Times, “How SpaceX Is Structured to Favor Elon Musk,” Ryan Mac, May 26, 2026.\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑:石秀珍 SF183","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TQQY":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,".IXIC":1.82,"TSLA":1.85,"NDX":1.82,"TESL":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"07366":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QQQA":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"JEPQ":0.6,"QQQJ":0.6,"TECS":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"09766":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"QQQY":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"IYW":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"QDTE":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"09366":0.6,"ONEQ":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"HXC":1.82,"QQQE":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"QYLG":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"GIS":1.84,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":39,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":374303728341408,"gmtCreate":1732423210251,"gmtModify":1732423212663,"author":{"id":"3550888125507139","authorId":"3550888125507139","name":"FunnyWong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3550888125507139","authorIdStr":"3550888125507139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"应该问一下 AI的各种应用以及大模型在美国如何变现 什么时候可以变现,而不是年复一年的说今年技术又进步了多少倍[贱笑] [吃瓜] ","listText":"应该问一下 AI的各种应用以及大模型在美国如何变现 什么时候可以变现,而不是年复一年的说今年技术又进步了多少倍[贱笑] [吃瓜] ","text":"应该问一下 AI的各种应用以及大模型在美国如何变现 什么时候可以变现,而不是年复一年的说今年技术又进步了多少倍[贱笑] [吃瓜]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374303728341408","repostId":"1173068564","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1173068564","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1732409131,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173068564?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-11-24 08:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"黄仁勋最新万字对话:英伟达十年将计算边际成本降低100万倍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173068564","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"11月23日,在香港科技大学周六举行的博士学位授予仪式上,英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋被授予工程学荣誉博士学位。今晨醒来,我第一时间询问妻子英伟达是否挺住了。若以此速度持续10年,计算需求的增长将是一个惊人的数字——高达100万倍。这也正是我向他人阐释英伟达股价在过去10年间上涨300倍原因时的重要论据。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>11月23日,在香港科技大学周六举行的博士学位授予仪式上,英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋被授予工程学荣誉博士学位。授予仪式结束后,黄仁勋与香港科技大学校董会主席沈向洋对话,探讨关于技术、领导力和创业的故事。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2cba27869c3918be054b7b714a73a5\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"616\"/></p><p><strong>以下为对话全文:</strong></p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>昨晚我辗转难眠,其中一个极为关键的原因在于,我亟欲向诸位引荐这位宇宙间最卓越的首席执行官。但我心中也暗自为贵公司担忧,毕竟昨晚苹果股价上扬,而英伟达的表现却略显逊色。我已迫不及待想要知晓股市收盘的结果!今晨醒来,我第一时间询问妻子英伟达是否挺住了。你在人工智能领域领航已久,能否再谈谈对人工智能的看法,以及这项技术,或是AGI(通用人工智能)可能带来的影响?</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>正如你所了解的,当人工智能网络能够学习并掌握从字节、语言、图像到蛋白质序列等多种数据的理解时,一场变革性、开创性的能力便应运而生了。我们突然间拥有了能够理解单词内涵的计算机。得益于生成式AI,信息得以在不同模式间自由转换,比如从文本到图像、从蛋白质到文本、从文本到蛋白质,乃至从文本到化学品等。这一原本作为函数逼近器(Function Approximator,数学领域的重要概念,用于多个领域)及语言翻译器而存在的工具,如今所面对的问题是,我们如何能充分利用它?你见证了全球范围内创业公司如雨后春笋般涌现,它们结合了这些不同的模型与能力,展现出无限可能。</p><p>因此,我认为真正令人惊叹的突破在于,我们现在能够理解信息的真正意义。这意味着,作为数字生物学家,你能理解所观数据的含义,从而于万千数据中精准捕捉到关键信息;作为英伟达的芯片设计师、系统设计师,或是农业技术人员、气候科学家、能源领域的研究者,在探寻新材料的过程中,这无疑是开创性的壮举。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>如今,通用翻译器的概念已然成形,它赋予我们理解世间万物的能力。许多人都听你描述过人工智能对社会的惊人影响。那些观点深深触动了我,甚至在某些方面让我感到震撼。回顾历史,农业革命让我们生产出了更多的食物,工业革命则让我们的钢铁产量大幅提升。进入信息技术时代,信息的数量更是爆炸式增长。而今,在这个智能时代,英伟达与人工智能正携手“制造”智能。你能进一步阐述为何这项工作如此重要吗?</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>从计算机科学的视角来看,我们重新发明了整个堆栈。这意味着,我们过去开发软件的方式已经发生了根本性的变化。提及计算机科学,软件开发自然是不可或缺的一环,它是如何实现的,这至关重要。</p><p>以往,我们依靠手工编写软件,凭借想象力和创造力构思功能、设计算法,然后将其转化为代码,输入电脑。从Fortran到Pascal,再到C语言和C++,这些编程语言让我们得以用代码来表达创意。代码在CPU上运行得很好,我们向计算机输入数据,询问它从中发现了什么函数,通过观察我们提供的数据,计算机能够识别出其中的模式和关系。</p><p>然而,现在的情况已经有所不同,我们不再依赖于传统的代码编写方式,而是转向了机器学习和机器生成。这不再是简单的软件问题,而是涉及到了机器学习,它生成神经网络,并在GPU上进行处理。这一转变,从编码到机器学习,从CPU到GPU,标志着一个全新的时代的到来。</p><p>而且,由于GPU的功能异常强大,我们现在能够开发的软件类型堪称非凡,而在这一强大基础之上,则是人工智能的蓬勃发展。这正是其出现所带来的变革,计算机科学因此发生了巨大变化。现在,我们需要思考的是,这样的变化将如何影响我们的行业?我们都在竞相利用机器学习去探索新的人工智能领域。那么,究竟什么是人工智能呢?这其实是一个大家耳熟能详的概念,即认知自动化和解决问题自动化。解决问题的自动化可以归结为三个核心概念:观察并感知环境,理解并推理环境,然后提出并执行计划。</p><p>例如,在自动驾驶汽车中,车辆可以感知周围环境,推理自身及周围车辆的位置,最后规划出行驶路线。这其实就是一种数字司机的表现形式。同样地,在医疗领域,我们可以观察CT扫描图像,理解并推理出图像中的信息,如果发现异常,可能代表着肿瘤的存在,然后我们可以标记出来并告知放射科医生。此时,我们就扮演了数字放射科医生的角色。<strong>在我们所做的几乎每一件事情中,都可以找到与人工智能相关的应用,它们能够出色地完成特定的任务。</strong></p><p>如果我们拥有足够多的数字智能体,并且这些智能体能够与产生这些数字信息的计算机进行交互,那么这就构成了数字人工智能。然而,目前我们所有人对数据中心的总体消耗,虽然看似庞大,但数据中心主要是在生产一种名为“Token”的东西,而并非真正的数字智能。</p><p>我可以解释一下这两者之间的区别。300年前,通用电气公司和西屋电气公司发明了一种新型仪器——发电机,并最终演化为交流发电机。他们非常明智地创造了一种“消费者”来消费他们所生产的电力,这些“消费者”包括灯泡、烤面包机等电器设备。当然,他们还创造了各种各样的数码设备或电器,这些设备都需要消耗电力。</p><p>现在,来看看我们正在做的事情。我们正在创建Copilots、ChatGPT等智能工具,这些都是我们创造出的不同类型的智能“消费者”,它们实际上就像灯泡和烤面包机一样,是消耗能量的设备。但想象一下,那些令人惊叹的、我们所有人都会使用的智能设备,它们将连接到一个新的工厂。这个工厂曾经是交流电发电厂,但现在,新的工厂将是数字智能工厂。</p><p>从工业的角度来看,我们实际上正在创造一个新的产业,这个产业在吸收能量并产生数字智能,而这些数字智能可以被应用于各种不同的场景。我们相信,这个数字智能产业的消耗量将是巨大的,而这个行业在以前是不存在的,就像交流电发电行业在以前也不存在一样。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>你为我们勾勒了一幅充满希望的光明未来,而这在很大程度上得益于你和英伟达在过去十多年间对该领域的卓越贡献。摩尔定律在业界一直备受瞩目,而近年来,“黄氏定律”逐渐为人们所熟悉。在早期的计算机行业中,英特尔提出的摩尔定律曾预言计算能力每18个月翻倍。然而,在过去10到12年间,特别是在你的引领下,计算能力的增长速度甚至超越了这一预测,实现了每年翻倍甚至更高速度的增长。</p><p>从消费端观察,大语言模型在过去12年里的计算需求每年都以四倍以上的速度激增。若以此速度持续10年,计算需求的增长将是一个惊人的数字——高达100万倍。这也正是我向他人阐释英伟达股价在过去10年间上涨300倍原因时的重要论据。考虑到计算需求的这一巨大增长,英伟达的股价或许并不显得高昂。那么,当你运用你的“水晶球”预测未来时,你认为在接下来的10年里,我们是否还会见证计算需求再次实现100万倍的增长呢?</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>摩尔定律依赖于两个核心概念:一是超大规模集成电路(VLSI)的设计原理,它是受到我、加州理工大学的卡弗·米德教授(Carver Mead)以及林恩·康威教授 (Lynn Conway )的著作启发的,这些著作激励了整整一代人;二是随着晶体管尺寸的不断缩小,我们得以每隔一段时间就将半导体的性能提升一倍,大约每一年半就能实现一次性能翻倍,因此每五年性能提升可达10倍,每十年更是能提升100倍。</p><p>我们正身处一个趋势之中:神经网络的规模越大,用于训练的数据量越多,AI似乎就表现得越智能。这一经验法则与摩尔定律有着异曲同工之妙,我们不妨称之为“规模定律(Scaling Law)”,且这一定律似乎仍在持续发挥作用。然而,我们也清醒地认识到,仅仅依靠预训练——即利用全球范围内的海量数据自动挖掘知识——是远远不够的。正如大学毕业是一个至关重要的里程碑,但它绝不是终点。接下来,还有后训练阶段,也就是深入钻研某一特定技能,这要求强化学习、人类反馈、AI反馈、合成数据生成以及多路径学习等多种技巧的综合运用。简而言之,后训练就是选定一个特定领域,并致力于对其进行深度钻研。这就像当我们步入职业生涯后,会进行大量的专业学习和实践。</p><p>而在这之后,我们最终会迎来所谓的“思考”阶段,也就是所谓的测试时间计算。有些事情你一眼就能看出答案,而有些则需要我们将其拆解成多个步骤,并从第一性原理出发,逐一寻找解决方案。这可能需要我们进行多次迭代,模拟各种可能的结果,因为并非所有答案都是可预测的。因此,我们称之为思考,且思考的时间越长,答案的质量往往越高。而大量的计算资源将助力我们产出更高质量的答案。</p><p>虽然今天的答案已是我们所能提供的最佳结果,但我们仍在寻求一个临界点,即所得到的答案不再局限于我们当前所能提供的最佳水平。在这一点上,你需要判断答案是否真实可靠、是否有意义且明智。我们必须达到这样一个境界,即所得到的答案在很大程度上是值得信赖的。我认为,这还需要数年的时间才能实现。</p><p>与此同时,我们仍需不断提升计算能力。正如你之前所提到的,过去十年里,我们将计算性能提升了100万倍。而英伟达的贡献在于,我们将计算的边际成本降低了同样的幅度。想象一下,如果生活中有你所依赖的事物,如电力或其他任何选择,当它的成本降低了100万倍时,你的行为习惯将会发生根本性的变化。</p><p>对于计算,我们的看法也已经发生了翻天覆地的变化,而这正是英伟达有史以来最伟大的成就之一。我们利用机器去学习海量的数据,这是研究人员无法单独完成的任务,而这正是机器学习能够取得成功的关键所在。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>我迫切希望听听你的看法,香港在当前机遇中应如何作为。现在,一个特别令人兴奋的事情是“AI for Science”,而你对此一直抱有极大的热情。香港科技大学已经投入了大量的计算基础设施和GPU资源,我们特别重视推动各院系之间的合作,如物理与计算机科学、材料科学与计算机科学、生物学与计算机科学等领域的交叉融合。你之前也深入探讨了生物学的未来。另外,值得一提的是,香港政府已决定建立第三所医学院,而香港科技大学是首个提交这个提案的高校。那么,对于校长、我本人以及整个大学而言,你有什么建议?</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>首先,我在2018年的超算大会上曾介绍过人工智能,但当时遭遇了诸多质疑。原因在于,那时的人工智能更像是一个“黑箱”。诚然,时至今日,它依然在一定程度上保持着“黑箱”的特性,但已比过去更加透明。</p><p>比如,你我皆为“黑箱”,但现在我们可以向AI发问:“你为何提出这样的建议?”或者“请逐步阐述你得出这一结论的过程。”通过此类提问,AI正变得愈发透明和易于解释。因为我们可以借助问题来探究其思考过程,正如教授们通过提问来洞察学生的思考过程一样。重要的不仅仅是获取答案,更在于答案的合理性以及是否基于第一性原理。这在2018年是无法做到的。</p><p>其次,AI目前尚未能从第一性原理中直接得出答案,它是通过观察数据来学习和得出结论的。因此,它并非模拟第一性原理的求解器,而是在模仿智能、模仿物理。那么,这种模仿对科学而言是否有价值呢?我认为,其价值无可估量。因为在众多科学领域,我们虽然理解第一性原理,如薛定谔方程、麦克斯韦方程等,但面对大型系统时,我们却难以模拟和理解。因此,我们无法仅凭第一性原理进行求解,这在计算上存在局限,甚至是不可能的。然而,我们可以利用AI,训练它理解这些物理原理,并借助其模拟大型系统,从而帮助我们理解这些系统。</p><p>那么,这种应用具体在哪些方面能够发挥作用呢?首先,人体生物学的尺度从纳米级开始,时间尺度则跨越纳秒至年。在如此宽广的尺度和时间跨度上,使用传统求解器是根本无法实现的。现在的问题是,我们能否利用AI来模拟人体生物学,以便更深入地理解这些极其复杂的多尺度系统?</p><p>这样,我们或许可以称之为创建了一个人体生物学的数字孪生体。这正是我们寄予厚望之处。如今,我们或许已拥有了计算机科学技术,使数字生物学家、气候科学家以及处理异常庞大复杂问题的科学家们能够首次真正理解物理系统。这是我的期望,希望在这一交叉领域能够实现这一愿景。</p><p>提及你们的医学院项目,对于香港科技大学而言,一所与众不同的医学院即将在这里诞生,尽管这所大学的传统专业领域是技术、计算机科学和人工智能。这与世界上绝大多数医学院截然不同,它们大多是在成为医学院后,再尝试引入人工智能和技术,而这通常会面临人们对其技术的怀疑和不信任。然而,你们却有机会从头开始,创建一个从一开始就与技术紧密相连的机构,并在这里推动技术的不断发展。这里的人们深知技术的局限性与潜力。我认为,这是一个千载难逢的机遇,希望你们能够紧紧抓住。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>我们当然会采纳你的建议。香港科技大学一直以来在技术和创新方面有着卓越的表现,不断推动计算机科学、工程、生物学等领域的前沿发展。因此,作为香港第三所医学院,我们坚信自己能够走出一条与众不同的道路,将传统的医学培训与我们在技术研究方面的优势相结合。我确信,未来我们还会向你寻求更多的建议。不过,我想稍微改变一下话题,谈谈领导力。你是硅谷任期最长的CEO之一,可能已经远超其他人,担任英伟达CEO的时间已经长达30年或31年之久了吧?</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>差不多32年了!</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>但你似乎从未感到疲倦。</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>不,我其实感到非常累。今天早上到这里的时候,我还说超级累。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>但你依然在不断前行。因此,我们当然想从你身上学到一些领导大型组织的经验。你是如何领导英伟达这样一个庞大组织的?它拥有数万名员工、惊人的收入和大量的客户,覆盖面极广。你是如何做到以如此惊人的效率领导这样一个大型组织的?</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>今天我想说,我感到非常惊讶。通常情况下,你只会看到计算生物学家或者商科学生,但今天我们看到的计算生物学家同时也是商科学生,这真是太棒了。我从未上过任何商业课程,也从未写过商业计划书,我完全不知道如何下手。我依赖于你们所有人来给予我帮助。</p><p>我要告诉你们的是,首先你们要尽可能多地去学习,而我也一直在不断学习。其次,关于你们想全身心投入并视为一生事业的任何事情,最重要的是热爱。<strong>将你所做的任何事情都视为你毕生的事业,而不是你的工作,我认为这种思维方式会在你的心中产生很大的不同。英伟达就是我的事业。</strong></p><p>如果你想成为一家公司的CEO,你有很多东西要学,你必须不断地重塑自己。世界一直在变化,你的公司和技术也一直在变化。你今天所知道的一切,将来都会有用,但还远远不够,所以我基本上每天都在学习。我在乘飞机过来的路上,也在看YouTube,在和我的AI聊天。我找了一个人工智能做导师,问很多问题。AI会给我一个答案,我会问它为什么给出这个答案,让它一步步地告诉我答案,以这种方式向我解释,将这种推理应用到其他事情上,给我一些类比。有很多不同的学习方法,我利用AI。所以,有很多学习方法,但我要强调的是,你要不断学习。</p><p>关于担任CEO与领导者的心得,我总结了以下几点:</p><p>首先,身为CEO及领导者,你无需扮演无所不知的全能角色。<strong>你必须坚定地相信自己所追求的目标,但这并不等同于你必须对每个细微之处都了如指掌。</strong>信心与确定性是两个截然不同的概念。在追求目标的过程中,你可以满怀信心地前进,同时开放心态,欣然接受并拥抱其中的不确定性。这种不确定性实际上为你提供了持续学习、不断成长的空间。因此,要学会从不确定性中汲取力量,视其为推动你前行的朋友而非敌人。</p><p>其次,领导者确实需要展现出坚韧不拔的一面,因为周围有许多人都在仰仗你的力量,并从你的坚定中汲取勇气。然而,<strong>坚韧并不意味着你必须时刻隐藏自己的脆弱。</strong>在需要帮助时,不妨勇敢地寻求他人的支持。我始终秉持这一理念,无数次地向他人坦诚求助。脆弱并非软弱的表现,不确定性也不是信心的缺失。在这个复杂多变的世界中,你既可以坚强自信地面对挑战,也可以诚实地接纳自己的脆弱和不确定性。</p><p>再者,作为领导者,你的决策应始终围绕使命展开,以他人的福祉和成功为考量。只有当你的决策真正有利于他人时,你才能赢得他们的信任与尊重。无论是公司内部员工、合作伙伴,还是我们服务的整个生态体系,我始终在思考如何促进他们的成功,如何保障他们的利益。在决策过程中,我总是以他人的最佳利益为出发点,以此作为我们行动的指南。我认为这些可能很有帮助。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>关于团队合作,我有个很感兴趣的问题想请教。你有60位直接下属需要向你汇报工作,那么你的员工会议是如何进行的?你是如何有效地管理这么多高层管理人员的?这似乎体现了你独特的领导风格。</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:关键在于保持透明度。</strong>我会在大家面前明确地阐述我们的理由、目标以及我们需要采取的行动,我们一起协作制定策略。无论是什么样的策略,每个人都会在同一时间听到。因为他们都一起参与了制定计划,所以当公司要决定什么事情时,都是大家一起商量好的,不是我一个人说了算,也不是我告诉他们要怎么做。</p><p>我们共同讨论,共同得出结论。我的职责就是确保每个人都接收到了同样的信息。我通常是最后一个发言的人,基于我们的讨论结果,来明确方向和优先级。如果存在任何不明确的地方,我会消除这些疑虑。一旦我们达成共识,都理解了策略,我就会基于大家都是成年人的事实来推进工作。我之前提到的关于我的行为准则——不断学习、自信但拥抱不确定性——如果我不清楚,或者他们不清楚某些事情,我希望他们能够主动说出来。如果他们需要帮助,我希望他们能够向我们寻求支持。在这里,没有人会独自面对失败。</p><p>然后,当其他人看到我的行为模式——作为CEO、作为领导者,我可以展现脆弱的一面,我可以寻求帮助,我可以承认不确定性,我可以犯错——他们就会明白他们同样可以这样做。我所期望的就是,如果他们需要帮助,就勇敢地说出来。但除此之外,我的团队有60个人,他们都是各自领域的顶尖人才。在大多数情况下,他们并不需要我的帮助。</p><p>沈向洋:我必须说,你的管理方法确实成效显著。你在学位授予仪式上的演讲让我记忆犹新,你提及了香港科技大学的诸多数据,特别是校友创立的初创公司数量,以及我们学校培育出的独角兽企业和上市企业数量。这所大学确实以孕育新企业家和公司而著称。然而,即便在这样的环境下,我们今天仍有许多硕士生在此深造。你和你的团队在非常年轻的时候便创立了自己的公司,并取得了今天这样令人瞩目的成功。那么,对于我们的学生和教职员工,你有什么建议呢?他们应该在何时、为何开启自己的事业?除了你曾经向妻子许下在30岁前创办公司的那个,你还有其他的建议吗?</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>那确实是我用来搭讪的小手段,并非真有其意。我16岁上大学,17岁时遇到了我的妻子,那时她19岁。作为班上最小的学生,面对250名同学中只有三个女孩的情况,而我又显得像个孩子,所以必须学会一些吸引注意的技巧。我走向她,告诉她,虽然我看起来年轻,但她对我的第一印象肯定是我很聪明。于是,我鼓起勇气说:“你想看看我的作业吗?”</p><p>接着,我向她许下了一个承诺,我说:“如果你每个星期天都和我一起做作业,我保证你会得到全优的成绩。”就这样,每个星期天我们都能约会,并且一整天都在一起学习。为了让她最终愿意嫁给我,我还告诉她,到我30岁的时候——那时我才20岁——我会成为CEO。我完全不知道自己当时在说些什么。后来,我们真的结婚了。所以,这就是我的全部建议,带着一点幽默和真诚。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>我从学生那里收集到一个问题,他想知道:他在学校表现优异,但需要全神贯注于学习。他读了你的爱情故事后,担心如果自己也花时间谈恋爱,会不会影响到学业。</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>我的建议是,绝对不会。但前提是,你必须保持优异的成绩。她(我的妻子)从未发现过这个小秘密,但我一直想让她觉得我很聪明。所以,在她来之前,我就先把作业完成了。等到她来的时候,我已经知道了所有的答案。她可能一直以为我是个天才,而且整整四年都是这样认为的。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>有一位华盛顿大学教授在几年前发表了一个观点,他认为在深度学习这场革命中,像麻省理工学院(MIT)这样的顶尖美国大学其实并没有做出太多开创性的贡献。当然,他并非仅指MIT,而是指出整个美国顶尖大学在过去十年里的贡献相对有限。相反,我们看到像微软、OpenAI、谷歌的DeepMind这样的顶尖公司取得了惊人的成果,其中一个重要原因就是它们拥有强大的计算能力。那么,面对这样的情况,我们应该如何应对?是不是应该考虑加入英伟达,或者与英伟达展开合作?作为我们的新盟友,你能给我们一些建议或者帮助吗?</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>你提到的这个问题确实触及了大学当前面临的一个严峻的结构性挑战。我们都知道,如果没有机器学习,我们就无法像今天这样推动科学研究的快速发展。而机器学习又离不开强大的计算支持。这就像研究宇宙离不开射电望远镜,研究基本粒子离不开粒子加速器一样。没有这些工具,我们就无法深入探索未知领域。而今天的“科学仪器”就是AI超级计算机。</p><p>大学面临的一个结构性问题是,研究人员通常都是自己筹集资金,一旦资金到手,他们就不太愿意与他人分享资源。但机器学习有个特点,就是需要这些高性能计算机在某些时间段内被充分利用,而不是一直闲置。没有人会一直占用所有资源,但每个人在某个时候都需要巨大的计算能力。那么,大学应该如何应对这个挑战呢?我认为,大学应该成为基础设施建设的引领者,通过集中资源来推动全校的研究发展。但这在像斯坦福或哈佛这样的顶尖大学中实施起来非常困难,因为这些大学的计算机科学研究人员通常能筹集到大量资金,而其他领域的研究人员则相对困难。</p><p>那么,现在的解决办法是什么呢?我认为,大学若能为全校构建基础设施,将能有效引领这一领域的变革,并产生深远影响。然而,这确实是大学当前所面临的一个结构性难题。正因如此,众多研究人员才会选择前往我们公司、谷歌、微软等企业实习或进行研究,因为我们能够提供访问先进基础设施的机会。随后,他们在返回各自大学时,会希望我们能够保持其研究的活跃性,以便他们继续推进工作。此外,还有许多教授,包括客座教授,会在从事教学工作的同时,兼顾研究工作。我们公司就聘请了几位这样的教授。因此,虽然解决问题的方法多种多样,但最为根本的,还是大学需要重新审视并优化其研究资助体系。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>我有一个颇具挑战性的问题想请教你。一方面,我们欣喜地看到计算能力的显著提升以及价格的下降,这无疑是个好消息。但另一方面,你们的GPU会消耗大量能源,有预测指出到2030年,全球的能源消耗将大幅度增加。你是否担忧,因为你们的GPU,世界实际上在消耗更多的能源?</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>我会这样回答你,我会采用逆向思考的方式。首先,我要强调的是,如果世界因为为全球AI工厂供电而消耗了更多能源,那么当这一切发生时,我们的世界将会变得更为美好。现在,让我为你详细阐述几点。</p><p>第一,AI的目标并非仅仅在于训练模型,而是在于应用这些模型。当然,去学校学习,单纯为了学习而学习,这本身并无不妥,它是一项崇高且明智的举措。然而,大多数学生来到这里,他们投入了大量的金钱和时间,他们的目标是未来能够取得成功并应用所学的知识。因此,AI的真正目标并非训练,而是推理。推理过程是高度高效的,它能够发现新的方式来储存二氧化碳,比如在水库中;它或许能够设计出新型的风力涡轮机;或许能够发现新的电能储存材料,或者更高效的太阳能电池板材料等。所以,我们的目标是最终创造出能够应用的AI,而非仅仅训练AI。</p><p>第二,我们要牢记,AI并不在意它在哪里进行“学习”。我们无需将超级计算机放置在靠近电网的校园内。我们应该开始考虑将AI超级计算机放置在稍微远离电网的地方,让它们使用可持续能源,而不是将它们放置在人口密集的区域。我们要记住,所有的发电厂原本都是为了满足我们家庭电器的用电需求而建设的,比如灯泡、洗碗机,而现在因为电动汽车的普及,电动汽车也需要靠近我们。但是,超级计算机并不需要靠近我们的家,它们可以在其他地方进行学习和运算。</p><p>第三,我希望看到的是,AI能够高效、智能地发现新的科学成果,以至于我们现有的能源浪费问题——无论是电网的浪费问题,电网在大多数时候都过度配置,而在少数时候又配置不足——我们都能够通过AI在众多不同领域来节约能源,从我们的浪费中节省能源,并期望最终能够节省下20%到30%的能源。这是我的期望和梦想,我希望能够看到,使用能源来进行智能活动是我们能够想象到的最好的能源利用方式。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>我完全同意,将能源高效地应用于智能活动是最佳利用方式。若在某个地方,如中国大湾区(包括深圳、香港、广东等地)之外制造设备,其效率往往会降低,因为难以找到所有必需的组件。以DJI为例,这家本土商业无人机公司拥有令人赞叹的技术。我的问题是,当智能的物理层面变得日益重要时,比如机器人——尤其是自动驾驶汽车这一特殊类型的机器人——你对这些物理智能实体在我们生活中快速涌现的趋势有何看法?在我们的职场生活中,应如何把握并利用大湾区硬件生态系统的巨大潜力?</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>这对中国和整个大湾区而言,都是一个绝佳的机会。原因在于,这个区域在机电一体化领域,即机械与电子技术的融合方面,已经具备了相当高的水平。然而,对于机器人而言,一个关键的缺失是理解物理世界的AI。当前的大语言模型,例如ChatGPT,擅长理解认知层面的知识和智能,却对物理智能知之甚少。例如,它可能不明白为何放下杯子时,杯子不会穿过桌子。因此,我们需要教导AI理解物理智能。</p><p>实际上,我要告诉你的是,我们在这方面正取得显著的进展。你可能已经看过一些演示,通过生成式AI,可以将文本转化为视频。我可以生成一个视频,开始时是我的照片,然后给出指令“Jensen,拿起咖啡杯,喝一口”。既然我能通过指令让AI在视频中完成动作,那么为何不能生成正确的指令来控制机械臂完成同样的动作呢?因此,从当前的生成式AI到通用机器人的飞跃,其实并不遥远。我对这个领域的前景充满期待。</p><p>有三种机器人有望实现大规模生产,而且几乎仅限于这三种。历史上出现过的其他类型的机器人都很难实现大规模量产。大规模生产至关重要,因为它能驱动技术飞轮效应。高投入的研发(R&D)能带来技术突破,从而生产出更优秀的产品,进一步推动生产规模的扩大。这个研发飞轮对任何行业都是关键。</p><p>实际上,虽然只有三种机器人能真正实现大规模生产,但其中两种将会成为产量最高的。原因在于,这三种机器人都能在当前世界中部署。我们称之为“棕色地带”(即有待重新开发的领域)。这三种机器人分别是:汽车,因为我们在过去150到200年间构建了一个适应汽车的世界;其次是无人机,因为天空几乎没有限制;当然,产量最大的将是人形机器人,因为我们为自己构建了一个世界。凭借这三种类型的机器人,我们可以将机器人技术的应用扩展到极高的产量,这正是湾区这样的制造生态系统所具备的独特优势。</p><p>如果你深入思考,就会发现,大湾区是世界上唯一一个同时拥有机电技术和人工智能技术的地区。在其他地方,这种情况并不存在。另外两个机电工业强国是日本和德国,但遗憾的是,它们在人工智能技术方面远远落后,真的需要迎头赶上。而在这里,我们拥有独一无二的机会,我会紧紧抓住这个机遇。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>听到你关于物理智能和机器人的看法,我感到非常高兴。香港科技大学在你所描述的这些方面确实很擅长。</p><p><strong>黄仁勋:</strong>人工智能、机器人技术和医疗保健是我们真正需要创新的三个领域。</p><p><strong>沈向洋:</strong>的确,随着我们新医学院的建立,我们将进一步推动这些领域的发展。但是,要实现所有这些美好的事情,我们仍然需要你们的支持,我们需要你们的GPU等资源。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1580517846866","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>黄仁勋最新万字对话:英伟达十年将计算边际成本降低100万倍</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-24 08:45 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xapv7ENglJfVBxXx6tdErA><strong>腾讯科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>11月23日,在香港科技大学周六举行的博士学位授予仪式上,英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋被授予工程学荣誉博士学位。授予仪式结束后,黄仁勋与香港科技大学校董会主席沈向洋对话,探讨关于技术、领导力和创业的故事。以下为对话全文:沈向洋:昨晚我辗转难眠,其中一个极为关键的原因在于,我亟欲向诸位引荐这位宇宙间最卓越的首席执行官。但我心中也暗自为贵公司担忧,毕竟昨晚苹果股价上扬,而英伟达的表现却略显逊色。我已...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xapv7ENglJfVBxXx6tdErA\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2cba27869c3918be054b7b714a73a5","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xapv7ENglJfVBxXx6tdErA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173068564","content_text":"11月23日,在香港科技大学周六举行的博士学位授予仪式上,英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋被授予工程学荣誉博士学位。授予仪式结束后,黄仁勋与香港科技大学校董会主席沈向洋对话,探讨关于技术、领导力和创业的故事。以下为对话全文:沈向洋:昨晚我辗转难眠,其中一个极为关键的原因在于,我亟欲向诸位引荐这位宇宙间最卓越的首席执行官。但我心中也暗自为贵公司担忧,毕竟昨晚苹果股价上扬,而英伟达的表现却略显逊色。我已迫不及待想要知晓股市收盘的结果!今晨醒来,我第一时间询问妻子英伟达是否挺住了。你在人工智能领域领航已久,能否再谈谈对人工智能的看法,以及这项技术,或是AGI(通用人工智能)可能带来的影响?黄仁勋:正如你所了解的,当人工智能网络能够学习并掌握从字节、语言、图像到蛋白质序列等多种数据的理解时,一场变革性、开创性的能力便应运而生了。我们突然间拥有了能够理解单词内涵的计算机。得益于生成式AI,信息得以在不同模式间自由转换,比如从文本到图像、从蛋白质到文本、从文本到蛋白质,乃至从文本到化学品等。这一原本作为函数逼近器(Function Approximator,数学领域的重要概念,用于多个领域)及语言翻译器而存在的工具,如今所面对的问题是,我们如何能充分利用它?你见证了全球范围内创业公司如雨后春笋般涌现,它们结合了这些不同的模型与能力,展现出无限可能。因此,我认为真正令人惊叹的突破在于,我们现在能够理解信息的真正意义。这意味着,作为数字生物学家,你能理解所观数据的含义,从而于万千数据中精准捕捉到关键信息;作为英伟达的芯片设计师、系统设计师,或是农业技术人员、气候科学家、能源领域的研究者,在探寻新材料的过程中,这无疑是开创性的壮举。沈向洋:如今,通用翻译器的概念已然成形,它赋予我们理解世间万物的能力。许多人都听你描述过人工智能对社会的惊人影响。那些观点深深触动了我,甚至在某些方面让我感到震撼。回顾历史,农业革命让我们生产出了更多的食物,工业革命则让我们的钢铁产量大幅提升。进入信息技术时代,信息的数量更是爆炸式增长。而今,在这个智能时代,英伟达与人工智能正携手“制造”智能。你能进一步阐述为何这项工作如此重要吗?黄仁勋:从计算机科学的视角来看,我们重新发明了整个堆栈。这意味着,我们过去开发软件的方式已经发生了根本性的变化。提及计算机科学,软件开发自然是不可或缺的一环,它是如何实现的,这至关重要。以往,我们依靠手工编写软件,凭借想象力和创造力构思功能、设计算法,然后将其转化为代码,输入电脑。从Fortran到Pascal,再到C语言和C++,这些编程语言让我们得以用代码来表达创意。代码在CPU上运行得很好,我们向计算机输入数据,询问它从中发现了什么函数,通过观察我们提供的数据,计算机能够识别出其中的模式和关系。然而,现在的情况已经有所不同,我们不再依赖于传统的代码编写方式,而是转向了机器学习和机器生成。这不再是简单的软件问题,而是涉及到了机器学习,它生成神经网络,并在GPU上进行处理。这一转变,从编码到机器学习,从CPU到GPU,标志着一个全新的时代的到来。而且,由于GPU的功能异常强大,我们现在能够开发的软件类型堪称非凡,而在这一强大基础之上,则是人工智能的蓬勃发展。这正是其出现所带来的变革,计算机科学因此发生了巨大变化。现在,我们需要思考的是,这样的变化将如何影响我们的行业?我们都在竞相利用机器学习去探索新的人工智能领域。那么,究竟什么是人工智能呢?这其实是一个大家耳熟能详的概念,即认知自动化和解决问题自动化。解决问题的自动化可以归结为三个核心概念:观察并感知环境,理解并推理环境,然后提出并执行计划。例如,在自动驾驶汽车中,车辆可以感知周围环境,推理自身及周围车辆的位置,最后规划出行驶路线。这其实就是一种数字司机的表现形式。同样地,在医疗领域,我们可以观察CT扫描图像,理解并推理出图像中的信息,如果发现异常,可能代表着肿瘤的存在,然后我们可以标记出来并告知放射科医生。此时,我们就扮演了数字放射科医生的角色。在我们所做的几乎每一件事情中,都可以找到与人工智能相关的应用,它们能够出色地完成特定的任务。如果我们拥有足够多的数字智能体,并且这些智能体能够与产生这些数字信息的计算机进行交互,那么这就构成了数字人工智能。然而,目前我们所有人对数据中心的总体消耗,虽然看似庞大,但数据中心主要是在生产一种名为“Token”的东西,而并非真正的数字智能。我可以解释一下这两者之间的区别。300年前,通用电气公司和西屋电气公司发明了一种新型仪器——发电机,并最终演化为交流发电机。他们非常明智地创造了一种“消费者”来消费他们所生产的电力,这些“消费者”包括灯泡、烤面包机等电器设备。当然,他们还创造了各种各样的数码设备或电器,这些设备都需要消耗电力。现在,来看看我们正在做的事情。我们正在创建Copilots、ChatGPT等智能工具,这些都是我们创造出的不同类型的智能“消费者”,它们实际上就像灯泡和烤面包机一样,是消耗能量的设备。但想象一下,那些令人惊叹的、我们所有人都会使用的智能设备,它们将连接到一个新的工厂。这个工厂曾经是交流电发电厂,但现在,新的工厂将是数字智能工厂。从工业的角度来看,我们实际上正在创造一个新的产业,这个产业在吸收能量并产生数字智能,而这些数字智能可以被应用于各种不同的场景。我们相信,这个数字智能产业的消耗量将是巨大的,而这个行业在以前是不存在的,就像交流电发电行业在以前也不存在一样。沈向洋:你为我们勾勒了一幅充满希望的光明未来,而这在很大程度上得益于你和英伟达在过去十多年间对该领域的卓越贡献。摩尔定律在业界一直备受瞩目,而近年来,“黄氏定律”逐渐为人们所熟悉。在早期的计算机行业中,英特尔提出的摩尔定律曾预言计算能力每18个月翻倍。然而,在过去10到12年间,特别是在你的引领下,计算能力的增长速度甚至超越了这一预测,实现了每年翻倍甚至更高速度的增长。从消费端观察,大语言模型在过去12年里的计算需求每年都以四倍以上的速度激增。若以此速度持续10年,计算需求的增长将是一个惊人的数字——高达100万倍。这也正是我向他人阐释英伟达股价在过去10年间上涨300倍原因时的重要论据。考虑到计算需求的这一巨大增长,英伟达的股价或许并不显得高昂。那么,当你运用你的“水晶球”预测未来时,你认为在接下来的10年里,我们是否还会见证计算需求再次实现100万倍的增长呢?黄仁勋:摩尔定律依赖于两个核心概念:一是超大规模集成电路(VLSI)的设计原理,它是受到我、加州理工大学的卡弗·米德教授(Carver Mead)以及林恩·康威教授 (Lynn Conway )的著作启发的,这些著作激励了整整一代人;二是随着晶体管尺寸的不断缩小,我们得以每隔一段时间就将半导体的性能提升一倍,大约每一年半就能实现一次性能翻倍,因此每五年性能提升可达10倍,每十年更是能提升100倍。我们正身处一个趋势之中:神经网络的规模越大,用于训练的数据量越多,AI似乎就表现得越智能。这一经验法则与摩尔定律有着异曲同工之妙,我们不妨称之为“规模定律(Scaling Law)”,且这一定律似乎仍在持续发挥作用。然而,我们也清醒地认识到,仅仅依靠预训练——即利用全球范围内的海量数据自动挖掘知识——是远远不够的。正如大学毕业是一个至关重要的里程碑,但它绝不是终点。接下来,还有后训练阶段,也就是深入钻研某一特定技能,这要求强化学习、人类反馈、AI反馈、合成数据生成以及多路径学习等多种技巧的综合运用。简而言之,后训练就是选定一个特定领域,并致力于对其进行深度钻研。这就像当我们步入职业生涯后,会进行大量的专业学习和实践。而在这之后,我们最终会迎来所谓的“思考”阶段,也就是所谓的测试时间计算。有些事情你一眼就能看出答案,而有些则需要我们将其拆解成多个步骤,并从第一性原理出发,逐一寻找解决方案。这可能需要我们进行多次迭代,模拟各种可能的结果,因为并非所有答案都是可预测的。因此,我们称之为思考,且思考的时间越长,答案的质量往往越高。而大量的计算资源将助力我们产出更高质量的答案。虽然今天的答案已是我们所能提供的最佳结果,但我们仍在寻求一个临界点,即所得到的答案不再局限于我们当前所能提供的最佳水平。在这一点上,你需要判断答案是否真实可靠、是否有意义且明智。我们必须达到这样一个境界,即所得到的答案在很大程度上是值得信赖的。我认为,这还需要数年的时间才能实现。与此同时,我们仍需不断提升计算能力。正如你之前所提到的,过去十年里,我们将计算性能提升了100万倍。而英伟达的贡献在于,我们将计算的边际成本降低了同样的幅度。想象一下,如果生活中有你所依赖的事物,如电力或其他任何选择,当它的成本降低了100万倍时,你的行为习惯将会发生根本性的变化。对于计算,我们的看法也已经发生了翻天覆地的变化,而这正是英伟达有史以来最伟大的成就之一。我们利用机器去学习海量的数据,这是研究人员无法单独完成的任务,而这正是机器学习能够取得成功的关键所在。沈向洋:我迫切希望听听你的看法,香港在当前机遇中应如何作为。现在,一个特别令人兴奋的事情是“AI for Science”,而你对此一直抱有极大的热情。香港科技大学已经投入了大量的计算基础设施和GPU资源,我们特别重视推动各院系之间的合作,如物理与计算机科学、材料科学与计算机科学、生物学与计算机科学等领域的交叉融合。你之前也深入探讨了生物学的未来。另外,值得一提的是,香港政府已决定建立第三所医学院,而香港科技大学是首个提交这个提案的高校。那么,对于校长、我本人以及整个大学而言,你有什么建议?黄仁勋:首先,我在2018年的超算大会上曾介绍过人工智能,但当时遭遇了诸多质疑。原因在于,那时的人工智能更像是一个“黑箱”。诚然,时至今日,它依然在一定程度上保持着“黑箱”的特性,但已比过去更加透明。比如,你我皆为“黑箱”,但现在我们可以向AI发问:“你为何提出这样的建议?”或者“请逐步阐述你得出这一结论的过程。”通过此类提问,AI正变得愈发透明和易于解释。因为我们可以借助问题来探究其思考过程,正如教授们通过提问来洞察学生的思考过程一样。重要的不仅仅是获取答案,更在于答案的合理性以及是否基于第一性原理。这在2018年是无法做到的。其次,AI目前尚未能从第一性原理中直接得出答案,它是通过观察数据来学习和得出结论的。因此,它并非模拟第一性原理的求解器,而是在模仿智能、模仿物理。那么,这种模仿对科学而言是否有价值呢?我认为,其价值无可估量。因为在众多科学领域,我们虽然理解第一性原理,如薛定谔方程、麦克斯韦方程等,但面对大型系统时,我们却难以模拟和理解。因此,我们无法仅凭第一性原理进行求解,这在计算上存在局限,甚至是不可能的。然而,我们可以利用AI,训练它理解这些物理原理,并借助其模拟大型系统,从而帮助我们理解这些系统。那么,这种应用具体在哪些方面能够发挥作用呢?首先,人体生物学的尺度从纳米级开始,时间尺度则跨越纳秒至年。在如此宽广的尺度和时间跨度上,使用传统求解器是根本无法实现的。现在的问题是,我们能否利用AI来模拟人体生物学,以便更深入地理解这些极其复杂的多尺度系统?这样,我们或许可以称之为创建了一个人体生物学的数字孪生体。这正是我们寄予厚望之处。如今,我们或许已拥有了计算机科学技术,使数字生物学家、气候科学家以及处理异常庞大复杂问题的科学家们能够首次真正理解物理系统。这是我的期望,希望在这一交叉领域能够实现这一愿景。提及你们的医学院项目,对于香港科技大学而言,一所与众不同的医学院即将在这里诞生,尽管这所大学的传统专业领域是技术、计算机科学和人工智能。这与世界上绝大多数医学院截然不同,它们大多是在成为医学院后,再尝试引入人工智能和技术,而这通常会面临人们对其技术的怀疑和不信任。然而,你们却有机会从头开始,创建一个从一开始就与技术紧密相连的机构,并在这里推动技术的不断发展。这里的人们深知技术的局限性与潜力。我认为,这是一个千载难逢的机遇,希望你们能够紧紧抓住。沈向洋:我们当然会采纳你的建议。香港科技大学一直以来在技术和创新方面有着卓越的表现,不断推动计算机科学、工程、生物学等领域的前沿发展。因此,作为香港第三所医学院,我们坚信自己能够走出一条与众不同的道路,将传统的医学培训与我们在技术研究方面的优势相结合。我确信,未来我们还会向你寻求更多的建议。不过,我想稍微改变一下话题,谈谈领导力。你是硅谷任期最长的CEO之一,可能已经远超其他人,担任英伟达CEO的时间已经长达30年或31年之久了吧?黄仁勋:差不多32年了!沈向洋:但你似乎从未感到疲倦。黄仁勋:不,我其实感到非常累。今天早上到这里的时候,我还说超级累。沈向洋:但你依然在不断前行。因此,我们当然想从你身上学到一些领导大型组织的经验。你是如何领导英伟达这样一个庞大组织的?它拥有数万名员工、惊人的收入和大量的客户,覆盖面极广。你是如何做到以如此惊人的效率领导这样一个大型组织的?黄仁勋:今天我想说,我感到非常惊讶。通常情况下,你只会看到计算生物学家或者商科学生,但今天我们看到的计算生物学家同时也是商科学生,这真是太棒了。我从未上过任何商业课程,也从未写过商业计划书,我完全不知道如何下手。我依赖于你们所有人来给予我帮助。我要告诉你们的是,首先你们要尽可能多地去学习,而我也一直在不断学习。其次,关于你们想全身心投入并视为一生事业的任何事情,最重要的是热爱。将你所做的任何事情都视为你毕生的事业,而不是你的工作,我认为这种思维方式会在你的心中产生很大的不同。英伟达就是我的事业。如果你想成为一家公司的CEO,你有很多东西要学,你必须不断地重塑自己。世界一直在变化,你的公司和技术也一直在变化。你今天所知道的一切,将来都会有用,但还远远不够,所以我基本上每天都在学习。我在乘飞机过来的路上,也在看YouTube,在和我的AI聊天。我找了一个人工智能做导师,问很多问题。AI会给我一个答案,我会问它为什么给出这个答案,让它一步步地告诉我答案,以这种方式向我解释,将这种推理应用到其他事情上,给我一些类比。有很多不同的学习方法,我利用AI。所以,有很多学习方法,但我要强调的是,你要不断学习。关于担任CEO与领导者的心得,我总结了以下几点:首先,身为CEO及领导者,你无需扮演无所不知的全能角色。你必须坚定地相信自己所追求的目标,但这并不等同于你必须对每个细微之处都了如指掌。信心与确定性是两个截然不同的概念。在追求目标的过程中,你可以满怀信心地前进,同时开放心态,欣然接受并拥抱其中的不确定性。这种不确定性实际上为你提供了持续学习、不断成长的空间。因此,要学会从不确定性中汲取力量,视其为推动你前行的朋友而非敌人。其次,领导者确实需要展现出坚韧不拔的一面,因为周围有许多人都在仰仗你的力量,并从你的坚定中汲取勇气。然而,坚韧并不意味着你必须时刻隐藏自己的脆弱。在需要帮助时,不妨勇敢地寻求他人的支持。我始终秉持这一理念,无数次地向他人坦诚求助。脆弱并非软弱的表现,不确定性也不是信心的缺失。在这个复杂多变的世界中,你既可以坚强自信地面对挑战,也可以诚实地接纳自己的脆弱和不确定性。再者,作为领导者,你的决策应始终围绕使命展开,以他人的福祉和成功为考量。只有当你的决策真正有利于他人时,你才能赢得他们的信任与尊重。无论是公司内部员工、合作伙伴,还是我们服务的整个生态体系,我始终在思考如何促进他们的成功,如何保障他们的利益。在决策过程中,我总是以他人的最佳利益为出发点,以此作为我们行动的指南。我认为这些可能很有帮助。沈向洋:关于团队合作,我有个很感兴趣的问题想请教。你有60位直接下属需要向你汇报工作,那么你的员工会议是如何进行的?你是如何有效地管理这么多高层管理人员的?这似乎体现了你独特的领导风格。黄仁勋:关键在于保持透明度。我会在大家面前明确地阐述我们的理由、目标以及我们需要采取的行动,我们一起协作制定策略。无论是什么样的策略,每个人都会在同一时间听到。因为他们都一起参与了制定计划,所以当公司要决定什么事情时,都是大家一起商量好的,不是我一个人说了算,也不是我告诉他们要怎么做。我们共同讨论,共同得出结论。我的职责就是确保每个人都接收到了同样的信息。我通常是最后一个发言的人,基于我们的讨论结果,来明确方向和优先级。如果存在任何不明确的地方,我会消除这些疑虑。一旦我们达成共识,都理解了策略,我就会基于大家都是成年人的事实来推进工作。我之前提到的关于我的行为准则——不断学习、自信但拥抱不确定性——如果我不清楚,或者他们不清楚某些事情,我希望他们能够主动说出来。如果他们需要帮助,我希望他们能够向我们寻求支持。在这里,没有人会独自面对失败。然后,当其他人看到我的行为模式——作为CEO、作为领导者,我可以展现脆弱的一面,我可以寻求帮助,我可以承认不确定性,我可以犯错——他们就会明白他们同样可以这样做。我所期望的就是,如果他们需要帮助,就勇敢地说出来。但除此之外,我的团队有60个人,他们都是各自领域的顶尖人才。在大多数情况下,他们并不需要我的帮助。沈向洋:我必须说,你的管理方法确实成效显著。你在学位授予仪式上的演讲让我记忆犹新,你提及了香港科技大学的诸多数据,特别是校友创立的初创公司数量,以及我们学校培育出的独角兽企业和上市企业数量。这所大学确实以孕育新企业家和公司而著称。然而,即便在这样的环境下,我们今天仍有许多硕士生在此深造。你和你的团队在非常年轻的时候便创立了自己的公司,并取得了今天这样令人瞩目的成功。那么,对于我们的学生和教职员工,你有什么建议呢?他们应该在何时、为何开启自己的事业?除了你曾经向妻子许下在30岁前创办公司的那个,你还有其他的建议吗?黄仁勋:那确实是我用来搭讪的小手段,并非真有其意。我16岁上大学,17岁时遇到了我的妻子,那时她19岁。作为班上最小的学生,面对250名同学中只有三个女孩的情况,而我又显得像个孩子,所以必须学会一些吸引注意的技巧。我走向她,告诉她,虽然我看起来年轻,但她对我的第一印象肯定是我很聪明。于是,我鼓起勇气说:“你想看看我的作业吗?”接着,我向她许下了一个承诺,我说:“如果你每个星期天都和我一起做作业,我保证你会得到全优的成绩。”就这样,每个星期天我们都能约会,并且一整天都在一起学习。为了让她最终愿意嫁给我,我还告诉她,到我30岁的时候——那时我才20岁——我会成为CEO。我完全不知道自己当时在说些什么。后来,我们真的结婚了。所以,这就是我的全部建议,带着一点幽默和真诚。沈向洋:我从学生那里收集到一个问题,他想知道:他在学校表现优异,但需要全神贯注于学习。他读了你的爱情故事后,担心如果自己也花时间谈恋爱,会不会影响到学业。黄仁勋:我的建议是,绝对不会。但前提是,你必须保持优异的成绩。她(我的妻子)从未发现过这个小秘密,但我一直想让她觉得我很聪明。所以,在她来之前,我就先把作业完成了。等到她来的时候,我已经知道了所有的答案。她可能一直以为我是个天才,而且整整四年都是这样认为的。沈向洋:有一位华盛顿大学教授在几年前发表了一个观点,他认为在深度学习这场革命中,像麻省理工学院(MIT)这样的顶尖美国大学其实并没有做出太多开创性的贡献。当然,他并非仅指MIT,而是指出整个美国顶尖大学在过去十年里的贡献相对有限。相反,我们看到像微软、OpenAI、谷歌的DeepMind这样的顶尖公司取得了惊人的成果,其中一个重要原因就是它们拥有强大的计算能力。那么,面对这样的情况,我们应该如何应对?是不是应该考虑加入英伟达,或者与英伟达展开合作?作为我们的新盟友,你能给我们一些建议或者帮助吗?黄仁勋:你提到的这个问题确实触及了大学当前面临的一个严峻的结构性挑战。我们都知道,如果没有机器学习,我们就无法像今天这样推动科学研究的快速发展。而机器学习又离不开强大的计算支持。这就像研究宇宙离不开射电望远镜,研究基本粒子离不开粒子加速器一样。没有这些工具,我们就无法深入探索未知领域。而今天的“科学仪器”就是AI超级计算机。大学面临的一个结构性问题是,研究人员通常都是自己筹集资金,一旦资金到手,他们就不太愿意与他人分享资源。但机器学习有个特点,就是需要这些高性能计算机在某些时间段内被充分利用,而不是一直闲置。没有人会一直占用所有资源,但每个人在某个时候都需要巨大的计算能力。那么,大学应该如何应对这个挑战呢?我认为,大学应该成为基础设施建设的引领者,通过集中资源来推动全校的研究发展。但这在像斯坦福或哈佛这样的顶尖大学中实施起来非常困难,因为这些大学的计算机科学研究人员通常能筹集到大量资金,而其他领域的研究人员则相对困难。那么,现在的解决办法是什么呢?我认为,大学若能为全校构建基础设施,将能有效引领这一领域的变革,并产生深远影响。然而,这确实是大学当前所面临的一个结构性难题。正因如此,众多研究人员才会选择前往我们公司、谷歌、微软等企业实习或进行研究,因为我们能够提供访问先进基础设施的机会。随后,他们在返回各自大学时,会希望我们能够保持其研究的活跃性,以便他们继续推进工作。此外,还有许多教授,包括客座教授,会在从事教学工作的同时,兼顾研究工作。我们公司就聘请了几位这样的教授。因此,虽然解决问题的方法多种多样,但最为根本的,还是大学需要重新审视并优化其研究资助体系。沈向洋:我有一个颇具挑战性的问题想请教你。一方面,我们欣喜地看到计算能力的显著提升以及价格的下降,这无疑是个好消息。但另一方面,你们的GPU会消耗大量能源,有预测指出到2030年,全球的能源消耗将大幅度增加。你是否担忧,因为你们的GPU,世界实际上在消耗更多的能源?黄仁勋:我会这样回答你,我会采用逆向思考的方式。首先,我要强调的是,如果世界因为为全球AI工厂供电而消耗了更多能源,那么当这一切发生时,我们的世界将会变得更为美好。现在,让我为你详细阐述几点。第一,AI的目标并非仅仅在于训练模型,而是在于应用这些模型。当然,去学校学习,单纯为了学习而学习,这本身并无不妥,它是一项崇高且明智的举措。然而,大多数学生来到这里,他们投入了大量的金钱和时间,他们的目标是未来能够取得成功并应用所学的知识。因此,AI的真正目标并非训练,而是推理。推理过程是高度高效的,它能够发现新的方式来储存二氧化碳,比如在水库中;它或许能够设计出新型的风力涡轮机;或许能够发现新的电能储存材料,或者更高效的太阳能电池板材料等。所以,我们的目标是最终创造出能够应用的AI,而非仅仅训练AI。第二,我们要牢记,AI并不在意它在哪里进行“学习”。我们无需将超级计算机放置在靠近电网的校园内。我们应该开始考虑将AI超级计算机放置在稍微远离电网的地方,让它们使用可持续能源,而不是将它们放置在人口密集的区域。我们要记住,所有的发电厂原本都是为了满足我们家庭电器的用电需求而建设的,比如灯泡、洗碗机,而现在因为电动汽车的普及,电动汽车也需要靠近我们。但是,超级计算机并不需要靠近我们的家,它们可以在其他地方进行学习和运算。第三,我希望看到的是,AI能够高效、智能地发现新的科学成果,以至于我们现有的能源浪费问题——无论是电网的浪费问题,电网在大多数时候都过度配置,而在少数时候又配置不足——我们都能够通过AI在众多不同领域来节约能源,从我们的浪费中节省能源,并期望最终能够节省下20%到30%的能源。这是我的期望和梦想,我希望能够看到,使用能源来进行智能活动是我们能够想象到的最好的能源利用方式。沈向洋:我完全同意,将能源高效地应用于智能活动是最佳利用方式。若在某个地方,如中国大湾区(包括深圳、香港、广东等地)之外制造设备,其效率往往会降低,因为难以找到所有必需的组件。以DJI为例,这家本土商业无人机公司拥有令人赞叹的技术。我的问题是,当智能的物理层面变得日益重要时,比如机器人——尤其是自动驾驶汽车这一特殊类型的机器人——你对这些物理智能实体在我们生活中快速涌现的趋势有何看法?在我们的职场生活中,应如何把握并利用大湾区硬件生态系统的巨大潜力?黄仁勋:这对中国和整个大湾区而言,都是一个绝佳的机会。原因在于,这个区域在机电一体化领域,即机械与电子技术的融合方面,已经具备了相当高的水平。然而,对于机器人而言,一个关键的缺失是理解物理世界的AI。当前的大语言模型,例如ChatGPT,擅长理解认知层面的知识和智能,却对物理智能知之甚少。例如,它可能不明白为何放下杯子时,杯子不会穿过桌子。因此,我们需要教导AI理解物理智能。实际上,我要告诉你的是,我们在这方面正取得显著的进展。你可能已经看过一些演示,通过生成式AI,可以将文本转化为视频。我可以生成一个视频,开始时是我的照片,然后给出指令“Jensen,拿起咖啡杯,喝一口”。既然我能通过指令让AI在视频中完成动作,那么为何不能生成正确的指令来控制机械臂完成同样的动作呢?因此,从当前的生成式AI到通用机器人的飞跃,其实并不遥远。我对这个领域的前景充满期待。有三种机器人有望实现大规模生产,而且几乎仅限于这三种。历史上出现过的其他类型的机器人都很难实现大规模量产。大规模生产至关重要,因为它能驱动技术飞轮效应。高投入的研发(R&D)能带来技术突破,从而生产出更优秀的产品,进一步推动生产规模的扩大。这个研发飞轮对任何行业都是关键。实际上,虽然只有三种机器人能真正实现大规模生产,但其中两种将会成为产量最高的。原因在于,这三种机器人都能在当前世界中部署。我们称之为“棕色地带”(即有待重新开发的领域)。这三种机器人分别是:汽车,因为我们在过去150到200年间构建了一个适应汽车的世界;其次是无人机,因为天空几乎没有限制;当然,产量最大的将是人形机器人,因为我们为自己构建了一个世界。凭借这三种类型的机器人,我们可以将机器人技术的应用扩展到极高的产量,这正是湾区这样的制造生态系统所具备的独特优势。如果你深入思考,就会发现,大湾区是世界上唯一一个同时拥有机电技术和人工智能技术的地区。在其他地方,这种情况并不存在。另外两个机电工业强国是日本和德国,但遗憾的是,它们在人工智能技术方面远远落后,真的需要迎头赶上。而在这里,我们拥有独一无二的机会,我会紧紧抓住这个机遇。沈向洋:听到你关于物理智能和机器人的看法,我感到非常高兴。香港科技大学在你所描述的这些方面确实很擅长。黄仁勋:人工智能、机器人技术和医疗保健是我们真正需要创新的三个领域。沈向洋:的确,随着我们新医学院的建立,我们将进一步推动这些领域的发展。但是,要实现所有这些美好的事情,我们仍然需要你们的支持,我们需要你们的GPU等资源。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":297157660676200,"gmtCreate":1713577103154,"gmtModify":1713580459436,"author":{"id":"3550888125507139","authorId":"3550888125507139","name":"FunnyWong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3550888125507139","authorIdStr":"3550888125507139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"乔布斯在天有灵看到这 会伤感哭泣吧","listText":"乔布斯在天有灵看到这 会伤感哭泣吧","text":"乔布斯在天有灵看到这 会伤感哭泣吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297157660676200","repostId":"1136332879","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136332879","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1713576693,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136332879?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-20 09:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"苹果遭抛弃!数位高管卖出股票,今年至今跌超15%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136332879","media":"智通财经网","summary":"在2023年取得惊人表现后,苹果的股价今年却遭遇重创。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者: 许然</p><p>在2023年取得惊人表现后,苹果的股价今年却遭遇重创。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2023年苹果股价飙升了48%,远超标普500指数的24%涨幅,并被誉为领导市场涨势的“七巨头”之一,但最近的一系列负面消息和对苹果在人工智能领域可能落后的担忧,导致其股价持续下滑。苹果股价在2月初因12月季度服务收入未达预期而下跌,尽管整体财报表现强劲。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d44071d6a0a2f39323f2426649852b34\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外,该公司从未正式宣布的汽车项目在2月底告终,进一步削弱了市场对其的期待。3月,美国司法部起诉苹果,指控其违反联邦法律,以维持其在移动电话市场的主导地位,而苹果则否认iPhone具有垄断性并否认违法行为。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至周五收盘,苹果股价今年已下跌超15%,而同期标普500指数则上涨了4%。仅在过去一周,苹果股价就下跌了近7%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时,苹果高管们正在抛售自家股票。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>苹果首席执行官库克(Tim Cook)及其四位直接下属在本月出售了价值超过7000万美元的股票。</strong>库克在4月1日通过限制性股票单元的结算获得了196,410股股票,并在当天及4月2日出售了等额的股票,共计获得3330万美元,平均每股售价为169.33美元。库克通过一个名为10b5-1的交易计划出售这些股票,该计划于去年11月28日采纳。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">10b5-1交易计划是一种自动执行交易的机制,当达到特定条件如价格、交易量和时间时便会触发,旨在消除内部人士利用非公开信息获利的可能性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该公司首席运营官Jeff Williams在4月11日通过一项计划出售了59,162股苹果股票,共计获得1020万美元,平均每股价格为172.22美元。Williams目前拥有489,944股苹果股份。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">总法律顾问Katherine Adams和零售高级副总裁Deirdre O’Brien在4月1日通过限制性股票单元的结算各自获得了113,309股股票,并在4月2日各自出售了54,732股,共计获得920万美元,平均每股价格为168.9美元。Adams目前拥有293,393股,而O’Brien拥有136,572股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首席财务官Luca Maestri在4月11日通过一项计划出售了53,194股苹果股票,共计获得930万美元,平均每股价格为174.12美元。Maestri目前拥有107,788股股份。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>苹果遭抛弃!数位高管卖出股票,今年至今跌超15%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n苹果遭抛弃!数位高管卖出股票,今年至今跌超15%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-20 09:31 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1105990.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者: 许然在2023年取得惊人表现后,苹果的股价今年却遭遇重创。2023年苹果股价飙升了48%,远超标普500指数的24%涨幅,并被誉为领导市场涨势的“七巨头”之一,但最近的一系列负面消息和对苹果在人工智能领域可能落后的担忧,导致其股价持续下滑。苹果股价在2月初因12月季度服务收入未达预期而下跌,尽管整体财报表现强劲。此外,该公司从未正式宣布的汽车项目在2月底告终,进一步削弱了市场对其的期待。3...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1105990.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/980522969e8f077e22524fe91f48fecd","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1105990.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1136332879","content_text":"作者: 许然在2023年取得惊人表现后,苹果的股价今年却遭遇重创。2023年苹果股价飙升了48%,远超标普500指数的24%涨幅,并被誉为领导市场涨势的“七巨头”之一,但最近的一系列负面消息和对苹果在人工智能领域可能落后的担忧,导致其股价持续下滑。苹果股价在2月初因12月季度服务收入未达预期而下跌,尽管整体财报表现强劲。此外,该公司从未正式宣布的汽车项目在2月底告终,进一步削弱了市场对其的期待。3月,美国司法部起诉苹果,指控其违反联邦法律,以维持其在移动电话市场的主导地位,而苹果则否认iPhone具有垄断性并否认违法行为。截至周五收盘,苹果股价今年已下跌超15%,而同期标普500指数则上涨了4%。仅在过去一周,苹果股价就下跌了近7%。与此同时,苹果高管们正在抛售自家股票。苹果首席执行官库克(Tim Cook)及其四位直接下属在本月出售了价值超过7000万美元的股票。库克在4月1日通过限制性股票单元的结算获得了196,410股股票,并在当天及4月2日出售了等额的股票,共计获得3330万美元,平均每股售价为169.33美元。库克通过一个名为10b5-1的交易计划出售这些股票,该计划于去年11月28日采纳。10b5-1交易计划是一种自动执行交易的机制,当达到特定条件如价格、交易量和时间时便会触发,旨在消除内部人士利用非公开信息获利的可能性。该公司首席运营官Jeff Williams在4月11日通过一项计划出售了59,162股苹果股票,共计获得1020万美元,平均每股价格为172.22美元。Williams目前拥有489,944股苹果股份。总法律顾问Katherine Adams和零售高级副总裁Deirdre O’Brien在4月1日通过限制性股票单元的结算各自获得了113,309股股票,并在4月2日各自出售了54,732股,共计获得920万美元,平均每股价格为168.9美元。Adams目前拥有293,393股,而O’Brien拥有136,572股。首席财务官Luca Maestri在4月11日通过一项计划出售了53,194股苹果股票,共计获得930万美元,平均每股价格为174.12美元。Maestri目前拥有107,788股股份。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":285735630405808,"gmtCreate":1710778092355,"gmtModify":1710778319928,"author":{"id":"3550888125507139","authorId":"3550888125507139","name":"FunnyWong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3550888125507139","authorIdStr":"3550888125507139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 像极了0几年的美股互联网泡沫,如出一辙,不同的是如今美国的制造业跟0几年简直差天共地。没有实体经济作为基本盘的AI只是空中楼阁,随时坍塌。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 像极了0几年的美股互联网泡沫,如出一辙,不同的是如今美国的制造业跟0几年简直差天共地。没有实体经济作为基本盘的AI只是空中楼阁,随时坍塌。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 像极了0几年的美股互联网泡沫,如出一辙,不同的是如今美国的制造业跟0几年简直差天共地。没有实体经济作为基本盘的AI只是空中楼阁,随时坍塌。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/285735630405808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":653142108,"gmtCreate":1680687038204,"gmtModify":1680687470180,"author":{"id":"3550888125507139","authorId":"3550888125507139","name":"FunnyWong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3550888125507139","authorIdStr":"3550888125507139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"5年内被中芯55分市场,10年内必被全面超越","listText":"5年内被中芯55分市场,10年内必被全面超越","text":"5年内被中芯55分市场,10年内必被全面超越","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653142108","repostId":"1136674725","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136674725","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1680608022,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136674725?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-04 19:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | 台积电已没想象力?市场预测Q1营收减幅恐大于预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136674725","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美东时间4月20日,台积电将发布Q1财报,公司预计2023年一季度营收约5126.9亿新台币至5372.5亿新台币,较2022年第四季下滑14.1%~18%。根据彭博一致预期,台积电一季度营收为525","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>美东时间4月20日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>将发布Q1财报,<strong>公司预计2023年一季度营收约5126.9亿新台币至5372.5亿新台币,较2022年第四季下滑14.1%~18%。根据彭博一致预期,台积电一季度营收为5254.84亿新台币,调整后净利润为1967.14亿新台币,调整后EPS为7.61元新台币。</strong></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f265c01f18bee1cd923e5e0852bf02\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"315\"/></p><blockquote><strong>台积电:2023年前2个月收入总计3632.3亿新台币</strong></blockquote><p>数据显示:台积电1月营收2000.51亿新台币,同比增长16.2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/256a2fe8b29e7caf908d796521a325d7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"166\"/></p><p>2月净收入约1631.7亿新台币,同比增加11.1%</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/374f316058a5b745be03726ea8afb285\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"225\"/></p><p>回顾来看,今年1月份,台积电的营业收入约为2000.5亿新台币,这是台积电1月营收首度超过2000亿新台币,为历年同期新高,1月营收环比增长 3.9%,同比增长16.2%。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">不过彼时,台积电就曾预计一季度的整体表现不会太好。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">因终端市场需求持续疲软,以及客户进一步库存调整影响,台积电预计一季度营收约167亿至175亿美元,以新台币30.7元兑1美元汇率计算,营收金额约5126.9亿新台币至5372.5亿新台币,<strong>较2022年第四季下滑14.1%~18%</strong>。毛利率介于 53.5%~55.5%,营业利益率介于41.5%~43.5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>因此,扣除 1-2 月营 3632.25亿新台币,接下来的3月营收金额要超过1495亿元,才可达成财测目标。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong><span style=\"color:#923737;\" class=\"color-mark\">不过值得注意的是,受降价砍单潮影响,台积电首季营收季减幅度恐大于预期。</span></strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">进入2023年,消费终端市场疲软,随着客户和供应链持续采取因应措施,台积电预期半导体供应链库存将在2023上半年大幅降低,以平衡至更健康水平。若以美元计,台积电2023上半年营收预期将比2022年同期下降中至高个位数(mid-to-high single digit)百分比。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">此前,曾有市场消息称,台积电遭五大客户(AMD、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、联发科、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>)砍单,受库存调整状况比预期激烈影响,投片量减少并将部分产品所需芯片顺延至第 2 季拉货。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">另外据半导体设备商透露,受到终端市场供需反转影响,台积电一季度 7/6 纳米制程产能利用率跌势超乎预期,将拖累首季整体产能利用率大跌,但台积电仍会守住 70% 关卡。有市场分析,在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a> 3nm 制程工艺大单的推动下,台积电有能力将整体的产能利用率,保持在 70% 甚至更高的水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">此外,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>分析师 Brad Lin 发布报告指出,受益 ChatGPT 等相关应用,台积电将成为主要受惠者。他指出,生成式 AI 将带动部分种类的半导体需求,而台积电有望搭上生成式 AI 的结构性上升趋势。目前,数据中心 ( 包含超级电脑 ) 约占台积电近 10% 营收。生成式 AI 需要的 CPU、GPU、加速器一开始可能贡献 1-2% 营收,但乐观情境下占比有机会拉高至8%。</p><blockquote><strong>综合最近的财报数据来看,缺少竞争对手的台积电却进入了下行周期</strong></blockquote><p>按照台积电2022年第四季度数据,12月时台积电的销售额为1925.6亿新台币,环比下降13.5%,季度营收则是6255.32亿新台币,环比增速放缓至2%。而本季度的最新公布的营收数据显示,台积电2月合并营收约为1631.74亿新台币,较1月减少了18.4%。业内人士表示,这与全球消费电子需求出现明显波动有关,尤其是智能手机这个大主顾的出货量下滑,直接影响了上游半导体行业的生存状况。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>资深投资人也表示,购买台积电的最佳时机早已过去,在未来,台积电势必会缓慢下坡。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">为何市面上会出现这种观点?台积电到底怎么了?</p><h3>台积电没有想象力?</h3><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不得不承认,在半导体芯片的领域,台积电有着近乎垄断的地位,但是与其地位不匹配的,却是台积电所畅想的未来已经没有了想象力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国市场调查公司Gartner披露的2022年全球TOP 10半导体厂家的销售额排名速报中,冠军韩国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">三星电子</a>年销售额为656亿美元,亚军美国英特尔为584亿美元,季军韩国SK海力士为362亿美元。</p><p>这份榜单里没有把台积电等代工厂计算在内,但已经能够看出芯片赛道的特质之一,即马太效应突出。 排名靠前的头部企业坐拥海量资金,它们凭借已有资源持续巩固优势,从而获得更多的订单,吞下更大的蛋糕。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">仔细看排名第三的SK海力士,它与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>的销售额差距已经不小,而根据台积电2022年报,台积电去年一整年的销售额是758.8亿美元,约等于SK海力士的2.1倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>就像大量投资者说的那样,台积电是半导体先进制程实力最强大的公司,没有之一,除了三星以外,很难再找到其他可以与台积电抗衡的玩家,想要反超更是不太可能。</strong></p><p><strong>此外,美国拜登政府所推出的《芯片法案》补贴刚刚开放申请,便在业内引发了诸多质疑。台积电董事长刘德音直言,该法案部分条款过于苛刻,台积电方面“无法接受”;韩国方面也表示了强烈不满,当地时间3月30日,韩国政府表示,对于三星电子、SK海力士等韩国企业来说,美国的芯片补贴标准可能是一种“沉重负担”。</strong></p><p><strong>最后,我们还要考虑台积电还面临来自同赛道的激烈竞争。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 台积电已没想象力?市场预测Q1营收减幅恐大于预期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 台积电已没想象力?市场预测Q1营收减幅恐大于预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-04-04 19:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>美东时间4月20日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>将发布Q1财报,<strong>公司预计2023年一季度营收约5126.9亿新台币至5372.5亿新台币,较2022年第四季下滑14.1%~18%。根据彭博一致预期,台积电一季度营收为5254.84亿新台币,调整后净利润为1967.14亿新台币,调整后EPS为7.61元新台币。</strong></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f265c01f18bee1cd923e5e0852bf02\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"315\"/></p><blockquote><strong>台积电:2023年前2个月收入总计3632.3亿新台币</strong></blockquote><p>数据显示:台积电1月营收2000.51亿新台币,同比增长16.2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/256a2fe8b29e7caf908d796521a325d7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"166\"/></p><p>2月净收入约1631.7亿新台币,同比增加11.1%</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/374f316058a5b745be03726ea8afb285\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"225\"/></p><p>回顾来看,今年1月份,台积电的营业收入约为2000.5亿新台币,这是台积电1月营收首度超过2000亿新台币,为历年同期新高,1月营收环比增长 3.9%,同比增长16.2%。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">不过彼时,台积电就曾预计一季度的整体表现不会太好。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">因终端市场需求持续疲软,以及客户进一步库存调整影响,台积电预计一季度营收约167亿至175亿美元,以新台币30.7元兑1美元汇率计算,营收金额约5126.9亿新台币至5372.5亿新台币,<strong>较2022年第四季下滑14.1%~18%</strong>。毛利率介于 53.5%~55.5%,营业利益率介于41.5%~43.5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>因此,扣除 1-2 月营 3632.25亿新台币,接下来的3月营收金额要超过1495亿元,才可达成财测目标。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong><span style=\"color:#923737;\" class=\"color-mark\">不过值得注意的是,受降价砍单潮影响,台积电首季营收季减幅度恐大于预期。</span></strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">进入2023年,消费终端市场疲软,随着客户和供应链持续采取因应措施,台积电预期半导体供应链库存将在2023上半年大幅降低,以平衡至更健康水平。若以美元计,台积电2023上半年营收预期将比2022年同期下降中至高个位数(mid-to-high single digit)百分比。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">此前,曾有市场消息称,台积电遭五大客户(AMD、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、联发科、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>)砍单,受库存调整状况比预期激烈影响,投片量减少并将部分产品所需芯片顺延至第 2 季拉货。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">另外据半导体设备商透露,受到终端市场供需反转影响,台积电一季度 7/6 纳米制程产能利用率跌势超乎预期,将拖累首季整体产能利用率大跌,但台积电仍会守住 70% 关卡。有市场分析,在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a> 3nm 制程工艺大单的推动下,台积电有能力将整体的产能利用率,保持在 70% 甚至更高的水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">此外,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>分析师 Brad Lin 发布报告指出,受益 ChatGPT 等相关应用,台积电将成为主要受惠者。他指出,生成式 AI 将带动部分种类的半导体需求,而台积电有望搭上生成式 AI 的结构性上升趋势。目前,数据中心 ( 包含超级电脑 ) 约占台积电近 10% 营收。生成式 AI 需要的 CPU、GPU、加速器一开始可能贡献 1-2% 营收,但乐观情境下占比有机会拉高至8%。</p><blockquote><strong>综合最近的财报数据来看,缺少竞争对手的台积电却进入了下行周期</strong></blockquote><p>按照台积电2022年第四季度数据,12月时台积电的销售额为1925.6亿新台币,环比下降13.5%,季度营收则是6255.32亿新台币,环比增速放缓至2%。而本季度的最新公布的营收数据显示,台积电2月合并营收约为1631.74亿新台币,较1月减少了18.4%。业内人士表示,这与全球消费电子需求出现明显波动有关,尤其是智能手机这个大主顾的出货量下滑,直接影响了上游半导体行业的生存状况。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>资深投资人也表示,购买台积电的最佳时机早已过去,在未来,台积电势必会缓慢下坡。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">为何市面上会出现这种观点?台积电到底怎么了?</p><h3>台积电没有想象力?</h3><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不得不承认,在半导体芯片的领域,台积电有着近乎垄断的地位,但是与其地位不匹配的,却是台积电所畅想的未来已经没有了想象力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国市场调查公司Gartner披露的2022年全球TOP 10半导体厂家的销售额排名速报中,冠军韩国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">三星电子</a>年销售额为656亿美元,亚军美国英特尔为584亿美元,季军韩国SK海力士为362亿美元。</p><p>这份榜单里没有把台积电等代工厂计算在内,但已经能够看出芯片赛道的特质之一,即马太效应突出。 排名靠前的头部企业坐拥海量资金,它们凭借已有资源持续巩固优势,从而获得更多的订单,吞下更大的蛋糕。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">仔细看排名第三的SK海力士,它与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>的销售额差距已经不小,而根据台积电2022年报,台积电去年一整年的销售额是758.8亿美元,约等于SK海力士的2.1倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>就像大量投资者说的那样,台积电是半导体先进制程实力最强大的公司,没有之一,除了三星以外,很难再找到其他可以与台积电抗衡的玩家,想要反超更是不太可能。</strong></p><p><strong>此外,美国拜登政府所推出的《芯片法案》补贴刚刚开放申请,便在业内引发了诸多质疑。台积电董事长刘德音直言,该法案部分条款过于苛刻,台积电方面“无法接受”;韩国方面也表示了强烈不满,当地时间3月30日,韩国政府表示,对于三星电子、SK海力士等韩国企业来说,美国的芯片补贴标准可能是一种“沉重负担”。</strong></p><p><strong>最后,我们还要考虑台积电还面临来自同赛道的激烈竞争。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b98f9e740cb6fb06990004c4ea7eae84","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0572940350.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A3 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3.9%,同比增长16.2%。不过彼时,台积电就曾预计一季度的整体表现不会太好。因终端市场需求持续疲软,以及客户进一步库存调整影响,台积电预计一季度营收约167亿至175亿美元,以新台币30.7元兑1美元汇率计算,营收金额约5126.9亿新台币至5372.5亿新台币,较2022年第四季下滑14.1%~18%。毛利率介于 53.5%~55.5%,营业利益率介于41.5%~43.5%。因此,扣除 1-2 月营 3632.25亿新台币,接下来的3月营收金额要超过1495亿元,才可达成财测目标。不过值得注意的是,受降价砍单潮影响,台积电首季营收季减幅度恐大于预期。进入2023年,消费终端市场疲软,随着客户和供应链持续采取因应措施,台积电预期半导体供应链库存将在2023上半年大幅降低,以平衡至更健康水平。若以美元计,台积电2023上半年营收预期将比2022年同期下降中至高个位数(mid-to-high single digit)百分比。此前,曾有市场消息称,台积电遭五大客户(AMD、英伟达、联发科、高通、英特尔)砍单,受库存调整状况比预期激烈影响,投片量减少并将部分产品所需芯片顺延至第 2 季拉货。另外据半导体设备商透露,受到终端市场供需反转影响,台积电一季度 7/6 纳米制程产能利用率跌势超乎预期,将拖累首季整体产能利用率大跌,但台积电仍会守住 70% 关卡。有市场分析,在苹果 3nm 制程工艺大单的推动下,台积电有能力将整体的产能利用率,保持在 70% 甚至更高的水平。此外,美国银行分析师 Brad Lin 发布报告指出,受益 ChatGPT 等相关应用,台积电将成为主要受惠者。他指出,生成式 AI 将带动部分种类的半导体需求,而台积电有望搭上生成式 AI 的结构性上升趋势。目前,数据中心 ( 包含超级电脑 ) 约占台积电近 10% 营收。生成式 AI 需要的 CPU、GPU、加速器一开始可能贡献 1-2% 营收,但乐观情境下占比有机会拉高至8%。综合最近的财报数据来看,缺少竞争对手的台积电却进入了下行周期按照台积电2022年第四季度数据,12月时台积电的销售额为1925.6亿新台币,环比下降13.5%,季度营收则是6255.32亿新台币,环比增速放缓至2%。而本季度的最新公布的营收数据显示,台积电2月合并营收约为1631.74亿新台币,较1月减少了18.4%。业内人士表示,这与全球消费电子需求出现明显波动有关,尤其是智能手机这个大主顾的出货量下滑,直接影响了上游半导体行业的生存状况。资深投资人也表示,购买台积电的最佳时机早已过去,在未来,台积电势必会缓慢下坡。为何市面上会出现这种观点?台积电到底怎么了?台积电没有想象力?不得不承认,在半导体芯片的领域,台积电有着近乎垄断的地位,但是与其地位不匹配的,却是台积电所畅想的未来已经没有了想象力。美国市场调查公司Gartner披露的2022年全球TOP 10半导体厂家的销售额排名速报中,冠军韩国三星电子年销售额为656亿美元,亚军美国英特尔为584亿美元,季军韩国SK海力士为362亿美元。这份榜单里没有把台积电等代工厂计算在内,但已经能够看出芯片赛道的特质之一,即马太效应突出。 排名靠前的头部企业坐拥海量资金,它们凭借已有资源持续巩固优势,从而获得更多的订单,吞下更大的蛋糕。仔细看排名第三的SK海力士,它与三星的销售额差距已经不小,而根据台积电2022年报,台积电去年一整年的销售额是758.8亿美元,约等于SK海力士的2.1倍。就像大量投资者说的那样,台积电是半导体先进制程实力最强大的公司,没有之一,除了三星以外,很难再找到其他可以与台积电抗衡的玩家,想要反超更是不太可能。此外,美国拜登政府所推出的《芯片法案》补贴刚刚开放申请,便在业内引发了诸多质疑。台积电董事长刘德音直言,该法案部分条款过于苛刻,台积电方面“无法接受”;韩国方面也表示了强烈不满,当地时间3月30日,韩国政府表示,对于三星电子、SK海力士等韩国企业来说,美国的芯片补贴标准可能是一种“沉重负担”。最后,我们还要考虑台积电还面临来自同赛道的激烈竞争。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03145":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"TWmain":0.9,"EWT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":653006118,"gmtCreate":1680276879534,"gmtModify":1680278939024,"author":{"id":"3550888125507139","authorId":"3550888125507139","name":"FunnyWong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3550888125507139","authorIdStr":"3550888125507139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"美元霸权正在倒塌中","listText":"美元霸权正在倒塌中","text":"美元霸权正在倒塌中","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653006118","repostId":"2323089425","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2323089425","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1680254215,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2323089425?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-31 17:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储资产负债表规模终于下降!但第二波银行挤兑开始?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2323089425","media":"金十数据","summary":"为了拯救银行业,美联储资产负债表再次膨胀,好消息是,上周资产规模终于下降了;坏消息是,美元短缺持续,第二波银行挤兑危机可能已经开始了……","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>为了拯救银行业,美联储资产负债表再次膨胀,好消息是,上周资产规模终于下降了;坏消息是,美元短缺持续,第二波银行挤兑危机可能已经开始了……</blockquote><p>拜登正呼吁监管机构收紧对中型银行的监管,提出了“<strong>推翻特朗普时代的规则</strong>”这一观点,主要是恢复对资产在1000亿美元至2500亿美元之间的银行的监管,包括流动性要求、加强压力测试和所谓的“生前遗嘱”。</p><p><em>注:所谓的生前遗嘱,指由金融稳定理事会(FSB)提出,要求<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>拟订并向监管机构提交,当其陷入实质性财务困境或经营失败时快速有序的处置方案。</em></p><p>白宫还呼吁:</p><blockquote>①资产在这一范围内的银行每年进行一次压力测试,而不是两年进行一次;②一旦银行资产达到1000亿美元,就缩短压力测试的时间;③加强监管工具,确保银行能够承受利率上升的影响。</blockquote><p>此外,白宫还呼吁联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)在不依赖社区银行的情况下补充资金。银行政策研究所则明确表示:</p><blockquote>“如果对SVB管理不善和监管不力的反应是对所有银行进行额外监管,这将对美国未来经济造成重大损失,这将是不幸的。”</blockquote><p>要求加强监管的呼声是在<strong>银行存款外流,以至于货币基金市场规模创下5.2万亿美元历史新高</strong>的情况下发出的。数据显示,上周有545亿美元的资金流入。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082cdde7b856f5574d006b6762b83a14\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"658\"/></p><p><strong>过去三周有3040亿美元的资金流入</strong>,创下了新冠疫情封锁危机以来的创纪录增幅。正如道明证券策略师戈德堡(Gennadiy Goldberg)在谈到上周的数据时所说:</p><blockquote>“这一数据与银行系统持续的存款外逃是一致的,储户通过货币基金间接将现金投资于政府债券,并避开银行信贷。这回答了‘钱离开银行系统后去了哪里?’的问题。”</blockquote><p>与此同时,美联储每周资产负债表也更新了,数据显示,<strong>其资产负债表上周实际上小幅收缩了278亿美元,其中美联储自身的QT(量化紧缩)计划缩减了100亿美元的美债和MBS(抵押贷款支持证券)。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/973365948743395579a82d27379216e2\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"636\"/></p><p>美联储实际准备金方面,<strong>其担保工具借款从1640亿美元小幅下降到1530亿美元</strong>,但仍然远高于SVB倒闭之前的45亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73e7240e5fad99f24134793ed450de51\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"658\"/></p><p>其构成也发生了变化,贴现窗口的使用减少了220亿美元至880亿美元,<strong>部分抵消了美联储全新的银行定期融资计划(BTFP)的增加,后者增加了107亿美元</strong>,从上周的537亿美元增加到644亿美元。与此同时,包括美联储向FDIC为解决SVB和签名银行问题而设立的过桥银行提供的贷款等其他信贷扩张则基本持平,为1801亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e470f4250a3d22f3c1d1966b21f01cd\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"664\"/></p><p>美联储的美元流动性掉期在过去一周仅维持在微不足道的5.85亿美元,其中1亿美元流向瑞士央行,48.75亿美元流向欧洲央行。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50758e31fed98dce53b4a1913b330171\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"664\"/></p><p>但是至少有一家银行在美联储的外国回购工具中储备了550亿美元的巨额资金。<strong>这意味着美元短缺仍在继续,好消息是至少这已经低于上周创纪录的600亿美元。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4024a3c8a9250aed5aefa2915b5aa5c7\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"648\"/></p><p>最后,根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">巴克莱银行</a>的说法,<strong>第二波银行挤兑浪潮已经开始</strong>,虽然燃烧速度较慢,但力度更大,因为“对价格敏感”的储户不再蛰伏,但也没有积极寻找存款的最佳地点。因此,要说银行业危机已经结束还为时尚早。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b901de82f7ec3d432c31a93f95918a97\" tg-width=\"1279\" tg-height=\"676\"/></p><p>尽管如此,还是有一些好消息的。虽然货币市场基金规模升至历史新高,但一周的增幅从上周的1174亿美元下降了近50%,只有660亿美元,这是自银行危机开始以来最慢的。换句话说,<strong>至少就目前而言,存款外流正在放缓。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储资产负债表规模终于下降!但第二波银行挤兑开始?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储资产负债表规模终于下降!但第二波银行挤兑开始?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-31 17:16 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109409&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>为了拯救银行业,美联储资产负债表再次膨胀,好消息是,上周资产规模终于下降了;坏消息是,美元短缺持续,第二波银行挤兑危机可能已经开始了……拜登正呼吁监管机构收紧对中型银行的监管,提出了“推翻特朗普时代的规则”这一观点,主要是恢复对资产在1000亿美元至2500亿美元之间的银行的监管,包括流动性要求、加强压力测试和所谓的“生前遗嘱”。注:所谓的生前遗嘱,指由金融稳定理事会(FSB)提出,要求金融机构...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109409&type=news&data_type=0\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86c31d7e54efed9192174b171199202b","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4588":"碎股","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109409&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2323089425","content_text":"为了拯救银行业,美联储资产负债表再次膨胀,好消息是,上周资产规模终于下降了;坏消息是,美元短缺持续,第二波银行挤兑危机可能已经开始了……拜登正呼吁监管机构收紧对中型银行的监管,提出了“推翻特朗普时代的规则”这一观点,主要是恢复对资产在1000亿美元至2500亿美元之间的银行的监管,包括流动性要求、加强压力测试和所谓的“生前遗嘱”。注:所谓的生前遗嘱,指由金融稳定理事会(FSB)提出,要求金融机构拟订并向监管机构提交,当其陷入实质性财务困境或经营失败时快速有序的处置方案。白宫还呼吁:①资产在这一范围内的银行每年进行一次压力测试,而不是两年进行一次;②一旦银行资产达到1000亿美元,就缩短压力测试的时间;③加强监管工具,确保银行能够承受利率上升的影响。此外,白宫还呼吁联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)在不依赖社区银行的情况下补充资金。银行政策研究所则明确表示:“如果对SVB管理不善和监管不力的反应是对所有银行进行额外监管,这将对美国未来经济造成重大损失,这将是不幸的。”要求加强监管的呼声是在银行存款外流,以至于货币基金市场规模创下5.2万亿美元历史新高的情况下发出的。数据显示,上周有545亿美元的资金流入。过去三周有3040亿美元的资金流入,创下了新冠疫情封锁危机以来的创纪录增幅。正如道明证券策略师戈德堡(Gennadiy Goldberg)在谈到上周的数据时所说:“这一数据与银行系统持续的存款外逃是一致的,储户通过货币基金间接将现金投资于政府债券,并避开银行信贷。这回答了‘钱离开银行系统后去了哪里?’的问题。”与此同时,美联储每周资产负债表也更新了,数据显示,其资产负债表上周实际上小幅收缩了278亿美元,其中美联储自身的QT(量化紧缩)计划缩减了100亿美元的美债和MBS(抵押贷款支持证券)。美联储实际准备金方面,其担保工具借款从1640亿美元小幅下降到1530亿美元,但仍然远高于SVB倒闭之前的45亿美元。其构成也发生了变化,贴现窗口的使用减少了220亿美元至880亿美元,部分抵消了美联储全新的银行定期融资计划(BTFP)的增加,后者增加了107亿美元,从上周的537亿美元增加到644亿美元。与此同时,包括美联储向FDIC为解决SVB和签名银行问题而设立的过桥银行提供的贷款等其他信贷扩张则基本持平,为1801亿美元。美联储的美元流动性掉期在过去一周仅维持在微不足道的5.85亿美元,其中1亿美元流向瑞士央行,48.75亿美元流向欧洲央行。但是至少有一家银行在美联储的外国回购工具中储备了550亿美元的巨额资金。这意味着美元短缺仍在继续,好消息是至少这已经低于上周创纪录的600亿美元。最后,根据巴克莱银行的说法,第二波银行挤兑浪潮已经开始,虽然燃烧速度较慢,但力度更大,因为“对价格敏感”的储户不再蛰伏,但也没有积极寻找存款的最佳地点。因此,要说银行业危机已经结束还为时尚早。尽管如此,还是有一些好消息的。虽然货币市场基金规模升至历史新高,但一周的增幅从上周的1174亿美元下降了近50%,只有660亿美元,这是自银行危机开始以来最慢的。换句话说,至少就目前而言,存款外流正在放缓。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SPY":1,"TQQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QID":0.6,".DJI":1,"DDM":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,".IXIC":1,"DJX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SDS":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}