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2023-06-28
供给克制部份原因是之前供应链紊乱造成的
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10:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"房地产软着陆后,美联储转向还有戏吗?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107780203","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"当前种种迹象表明美国房地产正先于经济软着陆。因此,如果当前的美国房地产正率先软着陆,是否意味着美国经济已经躲过了衰退?最终在需求的支撑下,房产快速回暖,也帮助美国避免了一次衰退。美国通胀压力迟迟未解,如果房地产成功软着陆,那么美联储抗击通胀及就业的难度无疑将再进一步(图16)。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>东吴宏观指出,房地产软着陆让通胀及就业的“隐忧”再起,如果房地产成功软着陆,那么美联储抗击通胀及就业的难度无疑将再进一步,在此基础上政策转向不会太早。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>当前种种迹象表明美国房地产正先于经济软着陆。</strong>尤其是二季度以来,以新屋开工和成屋销售为代表的一系列指标持续回暖,亚特兰大联储最新预测在连续8个季度下滑后,住宅投资有望在今年二季度为美国GDP贡献正增长。鉴于美联储一年多来已累计加息500bp,住宅投资在加息周期尚未结束时提前转正,显然是有悖于历史经验的(图1)。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04ea8b2fa7b32d4277e05b6ddead7f57\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"480\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>历史来看,在GDP的组成部分中,住宅投资的负增长历来是美国经济衰退的最佳预警信号(图2)</strong>。因此,如果当前的美国房地产正率先软着陆,是否意味着美国经济已经躲过了衰退?这对于美联储的货币政策又有何影响?</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75afc72d5de5dd404b765d72accba8f2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"679\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对此,我们考察了自1990年以来的4次高利率导致美国房市大崩溃的原因。如图3所示,由于不同程度的紧缩作用,美国房地产最终“闪崩”的原因都是供需失衡,其中需求端的因素更加关键。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85512d668fbded88eda439365e2739aa\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"791\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>疲软需求,加息幅度和利率水平都重要。</strong>在不断走高的利率下,购房需求放缓的传导路径是:高利率—高抵押贷款利率—高利息支付率--购房意愿及需求疲软。具体来看,从加息周期开始,消费者认为买房是个“错误选择”的想法就越来越强烈(图4-5)。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a5fa46dcc802aaa8bf84a601df2935c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"483\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中2008年为历次以来影响最剧烈的一次:大幅加息425bp中,申请抵押贷款人数最大跌幅为63%,新屋销售快速下滑76%。<strong>而如果加息是从低利率水平开始,则对购房需求的削弱便不太明显:</strong> 2018年不仅加息起点低,且加息幅度也不大,所以对地产的影响就较小,房屋销量温和回落23%(图6-7)。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e6d850256b407ea7e4e2939aae71da3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>超额供给,是原因也是结果。</strong>历史上4次房价崩溃的相似之处都是在加息周期中累计了过量的库存。前期过量的发放房屋建筑许可制导致待售房屋数量激增(图8-9)。过去4次平均增加许可证发放量73%,带动了64%的待售房屋数量。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa80cae151719d603003b50fae95932\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>从历史经验看,需求比供给对地产的影响更重要。</strong>2018年,房屋许可证发放数量增加176%,带领待售房屋数量激增146%。但是,由于2018年加息起点低(从0利率开始)+加息幅度还不大(累计225bp),美国居民购房需求并未被严重削弱。最终在需求的支撑下,房产快速回暖,也帮助美国避免了一次衰退。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这次有何不同?需求经受住了加息的冲击,而供给弱成为乐观的主要理由,这一次美国经济陷入衰退“不容易”。</strong>需求端,在经历了“史诗级”加息后,根据调查数据显示,居民对于“负担不起”的抱怨仍明显低于此前衰退前的高位。<strong>这与疫情后美国家庭资产负债表明显改善以及就业保持韧性有关</strong>:2023年Q1美国家庭偿债负担仍低于疫情前的水平。而居民认为当前最主要的限制因素不是房价而是利率(图 10-11),随着加息接近尾声,需求指标都开始触底反弹(图 12)。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d6f4d21f1a88d225f5e4c30000903a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"433\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">二是供给端,低库存加强开发商的建筑信心,无论是营建许可还是新房开工均开始边际好转(图 13)。与2018年相比,本轮地产周期虽然需求下降的幅度更大,但是供给明显更“克制”,供需失衡的情况反而要更好(库存月数更低),而2018年美国地产下行并没有带来经济衰退。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3ab0b523740f3b63d8329c04a8fb140\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"433\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">除此之外,从国际对比上看,美国住宅投资以及房价的上涨幅度上,远不及加拿大及瑞典,至少在其他两国地产尚未出现问题前,我们可以不用太担心美国(图14至15)。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83759b7698a5905789e2f2107c22a04c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"548\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>但值得注意的是,房地产软着陆让通胀及就业的“隐忧”再起。</strong>美国通胀压力迟迟未解,如果房地产成功软着陆,那么美联储抗击通胀及就业的难度无疑将再进一步(图16)。在此基础上,政策转向则不会太早,也为未来经济和市场平添变数。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d5d30210d0a412168221847dfc10221\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"567\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">风险提示:地产超预期反弹导致美联储紧缩程度高于市场预期;美联储超预期紧缩导致美国金融体系再次出现危机。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>房地产软着陆后,美联储转向还有戏吗?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n房地产软着陆后,美联储转向还有戏吗?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-28 10:54 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247503718&idx=1&sn=99f85044ff6e66fc7cbb56a75fcd8e0c&chksm=faaa3a15cdddb303a2eb39a26ed061f0427abe5bc3f205eef2a85df3cc416a3d9d0efcab6e26&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0628mrpzapdvc1qljXLhvwZ0&sharer_sharetime=1687906858435&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>东吴宏观指出,房地产软着陆让通胀及就业的“隐忧”再起,如果房地产成功软着陆,那么美联储抗击通胀及就业的难度无疑将再进一步,在此基础上政策转向不会太早。当前种种迹象表明美国房地产正先于经济软着陆。尤其是二季度以来,以新屋开工和成屋销售为代表的一系列指标持续回暖,亚特兰大联储最新预测在连续8个季度下滑后,住宅投资有望在今年二季度为美国GDP贡献正增长。鉴于美联储一年多来已累计加息500bp,住宅投资在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247503718&idx=1&sn=99f85044ff6e66fc7cbb56a75fcd8e0c&chksm=faaa3a15cdddb303a2eb39a26ed061f0427abe5bc3f205eef2a85df3cc416a3d9d0efcab6e26&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0628mrpzapdvc1qljXLhvwZ0&sharer_sharetime=1687906858435&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"ITB":"房屋建筑指数ETF-iShares Dow Jones"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247503718&idx=1&sn=99f85044ff6e66fc7cbb56a75fcd8e0c&chksm=faaa3a15cdddb303a2eb39a26ed061f0427abe5bc3f205eef2a85df3cc416a3d9d0efcab6e26&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0628mrpzapdvc1qljXLhvwZ0&sharer_sharetime=1687906858435&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107780203","content_text":"东吴宏观指出,房地产软着陆让通胀及就业的“隐忧”再起,如果房地产成功软着陆,那么美联储抗击通胀及就业的难度无疑将再进一步,在此基础上政策转向不会太早。当前种种迹象表明美国房地产正先于经济软着陆。尤其是二季度以来,以新屋开工和成屋销售为代表的一系列指标持续回暖,亚特兰大联储最新预测在连续8个季度下滑后,住宅投资有望在今年二季度为美国GDP贡献正增长。鉴于美联储一年多来已累计加息500bp,住宅投资在加息周期尚未结束时提前转正,显然是有悖于历史经验的(图1)。历史来看,在GDP的组成部分中,住宅投资的负增长历来是美国经济衰退的最佳预警信号(图2)。因此,如果当前的美国房地产正率先软着陆,是否意味着美国经济已经躲过了衰退?这对于美联储的货币政策又有何影响?对此,我们考察了自1990年以来的4次高利率导致美国房市大崩溃的原因。如图3所示,由于不同程度的紧缩作用,美国房地产最终“闪崩”的原因都是供需失衡,其中需求端的因素更加关键。疲软需求,加息幅度和利率水平都重要。在不断走高的利率下,购房需求放缓的传导路径是:高利率—高抵押贷款利率—高利息支付率--购房意愿及需求疲软。具体来看,从加息周期开始,消费者认为买房是个“错误选择”的想法就越来越强烈(图4-5)。其中2008年为历次以来影响最剧烈的一次:大幅加息425bp中,申请抵押贷款人数最大跌幅为63%,新屋销售快速下滑76%。而如果加息是从低利率水平开始,则对购房需求的削弱便不太明显: 2018年不仅加息起点低,且加息幅度也不大,所以对地产的影响就较小,房屋销量温和回落23%(图6-7)。超额供给,是原因也是结果。历史上4次房价崩溃的相似之处都是在加息周期中累计了过量的库存。前期过量的发放房屋建筑许可制导致待售房屋数量激增(图8-9)。过去4次平均增加许可证发放量73%,带动了64%的待售房屋数量。从历史经验看,需求比供给对地产的影响更重要。2018年,房屋许可证发放数量增加176%,带领待售房屋数量激增146%。但是,由于2018年加息起点低(从0利率开始)+加息幅度还不大(累计225bp),美国居民购房需求并未被严重削弱。最终在需求的支撑下,房产快速回暖,也帮助美国避免了一次衰退。这次有何不同?需求经受住了加息的冲击,而供给弱成为乐观的主要理由,这一次美国经济陷入衰退“不容易”。需求端,在经历了“史诗级”加息后,根据调查数据显示,居民对于“负担不起”的抱怨仍明显低于此前衰退前的高位。这与疫情后美国家庭资产负债表明显改善以及就业保持韧性有关:2023年Q1美国家庭偿债负担仍低于疫情前的水平。而居民认为当前最主要的限制因素不是房价而是利率(图 10-11),随着加息接近尾声,需求指标都开始触底反弹(图 12)。二是供给端,低库存加强开发商的建筑信心,无论是营建许可还是新房开工均开始边际好转(图 13)。与2018年相比,本轮地产周期虽然需求下降的幅度更大,但是供给明显更“克制”,供需失衡的情况反而要更好(库存月数更低),而2018年美国地产下行并没有带来经济衰退。除此之外,从国际对比上看,美国住宅投资以及房价的上涨幅度上,远不及加拿大及瑞典,至少在其他两国地产尚未出现问题前,我们可以不用太担心美国(图14至15)。但值得注意的是,房地产软着陆让通胀及就业的“隐忧”再起。美国通胀压力迟迟未解,如果房地产成功软着陆,那么美联储抗击通胀及就业的难度无疑将再进一步(图16)。在此基础上,政策转向则不会太早,也为未来经济和市场平添变数。风险提示:地产超预期反弹导致美联储紧缩程度高于市场预期;美联储超预期紧缩导致美国金融体系再次出现危机。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}