RicardoYedon的个人主页 - 老虎社区

RicardoYedon

RicardoYedon

个人简介：以格雷厄姆先生的谨慎态度对待任何一家企业

IP属地：北京

43关注

5粉丝

1主题

0勋章

2020-08-15

$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 唉，在格雷厄姆先生的时代成熟企业的市盈率在十五左右就被认为比较被高估了，而现在的这些所谓的科技股呢

2020-09-08

$特斯拉(TSLA)$特斯拉一股在20美元左右比较合理

2020-08-27

$富国银行(WFC)$时间将证明一切

2020-06-16

$雷神技术公司(RTX)$对这种目前资产结构尚不明朗的周期性工业企业保持观望态度

2020-06-15

$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$ 这两个月真是在这个社区见识了什么叫散户的追涨杀跌心里了

2021-03-09

$AerCap Holdings N.V.(AER)$行吧，从财务数据上来说，这个企业还很便宜

2020-08-17

$贵州茅台(600519)$哈哈

2020-09-03

$信也科技(FINV)$对于信也集团的财务状况我有一点疑问，遍查它的财报，对于19年经营活动现金流供应量和利润的差值的解释也只有为信贷计提质量保证这一段，但提供的数据也和老虎上的数据有很明显的出入

2020-06-26

$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$ 请问各位老虎买的股票分红大概几天能到账啊[白眼]

2020-12-14

就算不是骗局，根据已公布的基于美国会计准则的财务数据来推算，每股也就值个几块钱

浑水公司：跟谁学就是一个骗局，股价会跌至个位数

2021-03-05

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$就这才哪到哪，不至于神经这么脆弱吧

2020-10-06

$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 打卡

2020-10-21

$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 打卡

2020-06-16

$Rick’s Cabaret International(RICK)$[强]

2020-06-16

$达美航空(DAL)$达美怎么回事，盘中出乌龙了吗？

2021-05-09

因为他还没死啊

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-03

$游戏驿站(GME)$不知道还会不会反弹，但狡兔三窟终无路，华尔街从没有新鲜事

2020-12-10

这不是在说废话吗

只值90美元？摩根大通称特斯拉被严重高估，建议低配

2020-08-15

$FTSE100 ETF(ISF.UK)$英股关注量好少

2020-08-11

$Rick’s Cabaret International(RICK)$现在对于实体经济传统产业的投资价值踏踏实实研究的人太少了

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联储","listText":"说的没错，加息一旦决定一定要足够坚定才能让市场相信美联储","text":"说的没错，加息一旦决定一定要足够坚定才能让市场相信美联储","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612295064","repostId":"2234696436","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":616110178,"gmtCreate":1651563595204,"gmtModify":1651563595204,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"市场已经成熟了，从成长回归价值了","listText":"市场已经成熟了，从成长回归价值了","text":"市场已经成熟了，从成长回归价值了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616110178","repostId":"1117500727","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1117500727","pubTimestamp":1651464689,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117500727?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-02 12:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国科技巨头的“中年危机”是如何形成的？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117500727","media":"好看商业","summary":"他们的第二增长曲线都还有待提升。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>刚刚过去的四月，是美国科技股的“黑色四月”，悲观情绪蔓延。</p><p>4月最后一个交易日，亚马逊一夜暴跌14%。整个4月，它的股价已经跌去23.8%，创下2008年1月大跌25.4%以来最大月度跌幅。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8909e2382ea4ec5bf245e96f5f03bb2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>无独有偶。谷歌母公司Alphabet的股价也4月份大跌18%，这是它自2008年以来最糟糕的一个月份。</p><p>4月份，科技股为主的纳斯达克指数跌幅达到13.3%，创2008年金融危机以来最大月度跌幅。</p><p>这背后，科技巨头业绩拉垮是其中一个关键原因。</p><p>亚马逊Q1财报的财报堪称“全军覆灭”。这一季，其营收增速低于分析师预期，创下二十年来最低增速。其中线上销售、订阅服务和广告业务营收均不及分析师预期；云业务增速放缓。Q1经营利润也不及分析师预期。</p><p>Alphabet的营收同比增长23%，其中占比超8成的广告业务同比增长22.3%，两项指标均创五个季度以来最低增速。</p><p>曾经的优等生变成了表现不及格的差生，市场的失望之情可想而知。</p><p>成立于1994年的亚马逊如今已经28岁，看起来却像迈入了中年。在这一点上，亚马逊并不是孤例。</p><p>在过去，人们常用FAAMG来代指美股五大科技巨头——脸书(Facebook)、苹果(Apple)、亚马逊(Amazon)、微软(Microsoft)、谷歌(Google)。如今，脸书已经更名为Meta，谷歌也变成了Alphabet。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca1483419f393af8ca20d6e4a58044b5\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>他们都成功穿越了互联网、移动互联网，最老的微软如今已经47岁，最年轻的Meta也已经年过18。</p><p>从今年Q1的财报来看，美国五大科技巨头纷纷表现出锐气不再、增长放缓的症状。</p><p>此外，他们都面临新的麻烦：员工的工会组织纷纷成立，队伍不好带了。工会要代表员工向与他们谈判，争取更好的薪资待遇和工作环境。这意味着，科技巨头们要付出更高的代价。</p><p>一场中年危机正在悄然来临。</p><p><b>存量时代，越来越涨不动了</b></p><p>美国五大科技巨头主要涉及三个大行业：消费、广告和企业服务；两个关键词：消费互联网和产业互联网。</p><p>总的来看，全球消费互联网都处于存量争夺时代，受全球消费疲软影响，电商零售行业、智能硬件和在线广告的大盘增速都在放缓。</p><p>这决定了其中的玩家们彼此竞争更加激烈，加上基数在变大，增速放缓是必然。</p><p>据eMarketer的报告，2022年全球电商销售额预计将首次突破5万亿美元，占整体零售总额的1/5；2025年，这个数字或将突破7万亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b37edb3319d04caa656055697709779\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>但从增速来看，将从2020年的26.4%降至2022年的12.2%，到2025年增速将降至个位数——9.2%。</p><p>亚马逊已经是全球最大的电商零售平台，2021年净销售额4698亿美元，其中商品销售额约达2418亿美元。2021年，亚马逊同比增长22%，已经跑赢全球电商大盘16.3%的增速。</p><p>今年Q1，亚马逊增速大跌至7.3%。这是亚马逊20年来的最低增速。去年同期，亚马逊实现了44%的增长。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9810bb65a7d29d3eb13694975e667d9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>疫情之下的国际供应链变得低效而混乱，这严重影响了亚马逊的履约效率，导致其线上零售增长持续放缓，货运成本大幅提升。</p><p>随着跨境电商新秀SHEIN、Shopify等的崛起，他们在疯狂与亚马逊争食国际市场，再加上俄乌战争，亚马逊的国际业务受到明显影响，收入下滑。</p><p>在业务增长乏力的同时，亚马逊自身却处于新的投入期。2020年和2021年，公司在履约人力、场地等方面的投入翻倍，但2021年其零售业务的收入规模相比2019年只增长了65%。</p><p>新的投入要带来新的营收和利润释放仍需要时间，再加上疫情和国际宏观形势的持续影响，亚马逊短期内似乎很难在财务和股价上得到明显的改善。</p><p>全球消费疲软，智能硬件也未能独善其身。过去2年，全球智能手机出货量保持个位数增长或者负增长。今年Q1，全球智能手机市场出货量同比下滑7%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c00685bf078563cce874759f2ebe73\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>相比之下，苹果的表现超越大盘。今年Q1，苹果营收973亿美元，同比增长8.6%，高于彭博一致预期的940亿美元。其中主要得益于iPhone和Mac的拉动，两者该季度同比增幅分别达5.5%和14.6%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0a70cea4209e4e16359b331200154da\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>但总的来看，苹果这一季营收增速仍在下滑通道，创6个季度以来最低纪录，也首次跌破两位数。</p><p>这背后，主要是苹果硬件业务增速下滑，本季度同比增长只有6.6%，为六个季度以来最低，包括iPad和智能穿戴设备本季度表现都低于市场预期。</p><p>2022年以来，全球通胀高企，智能手机、PC等电子终端需求疲软。多家机构下调智手机出货量预测。</p><p>Omdia最新数据显示，2022年智能手机显示屏需求较2021年实际出货量下降超过11%。</p><p>下一步，疫情导致的供应链紧张、缺芯以及俄乌冲突也将持续对苹果业绩带来影响。</p><p>苹果高管预计，受供应链短缺和中国工厂关闭等因素影响，二季度可能造成高达80亿美元的损失。</p><p>疫情反复导致消费、旅游等行业受损严重，他们保存实力的第一举措可能就是消减广告等开支。这抑制了全球在线广告的增长。</p><p>所以，尽管疫情期间人们花在网上冲浪的时间更长了，但是流量激增却没有带来广告收入的大幅上涨。</p><p>据GIR的调研，2021年全球互联网广告收入大约2983亿美元，预计2028年达到6385亿美元，2022—2028期间，年复合增长率12.4%。而2014—2018年的年复合增长率为15.7%。</p><p>Alphabet和Meta长期占据全球互联网广告第一和第二的位置，2021年二者的广告收入分别达到2094亿美元、1149亿美元。</p><p>尽管如此，随着在线广告大盘增长放缓，以及各自基数变大，Alphabet和Meta的广告业务增速放缓难以避免。</p><p>具体来看，2022年Q1，Alphabet营收同比增长23%，其中占比超8成的广告业务同比增长22.3%，均创五个季度以来最低增速；广告业务环去年Q4比下滑10.6%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f03ec4cda3de4a87396a84a4fd0c7c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>广告是Meta收入的基本盘，目前营收占比超96%。今年Q1，Meta广告收入270亿美元，同比增长6.1%，低于市场预期的273亿美元；环比下滑17%。而其广告业务增速下滑的态势已经持续了一年时间。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c939b93ff7da586344e462193f221177\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>除了在线广告大盘增速放缓，竞争加剧也是导致Alphabet和Meta广告收入增长放缓的一大因素。</p><p>全球在线广告市场几乎是一个零和游戏。现在，这个市场的玩家在变多，2021年，亚马逊、苹果以及TikTok等新玩家加速广告业务变现，来势凶猛。</p><p>以TikTok为例，截至去年9月，其全球MAU已经突破10亿。总体年轻化的用户群体更有利于其商业化。</p><p>据Insider Intelligence预测，2022年TikTok的广告收入规模有望达到110亿美元， 同比增长近175%。除了广告，其直播电商业务也在快速变现。</p><p>Sensor tower的数据显示，2021年Q1 ，TikTok平台上消费者支出为8.21亿美元，是全球收入最高的非游戏类应用。</p><p>尽管Alphabet和Meta都推出了短视频流媒体等新产品以应对来自TikTok的竞争，但这个战斗很难在短期内结束。</p><p>相比之下，微软是美国五大科技巨头中表现最稳的一家。一年多来，其季度营收持续保持20%左右的同比增幅。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9abc487a603fc8cc6baf5e6f1e99beac\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>这与微软的营收来源有关。微软目前三大块业务中，Office为主的“生产力与商业流程”业务和以Azure为核心的智慧云业务主要是TOB业务，目前合计营收贡献超过70%。</p><p>其中，Azure在Q1收入114.5亿美元，同比增长46%。它的营收规模首次超越Office全线业务，成为微软收入绝对值最高，增速最快的业务。</p><p>受益于云计算等新一代信息技术的发展，传统产业加速向数字化转型。据前瞻产业研究院的数据，2018-2020年全球数字经济规模持续上涨，2020年达到32.61万亿美元，占GDP比重为43.7%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4662c8734c3d1bb197bbbc4dbb7b3d18\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>不过，最近三个季度，微软的营收增速也处于持续下滑中。微软面向企业端的办公SaaS产品Office 365进入云端化红利尾声，收入持续放缓。</p><p>而随着基数变大，Azure本季度的增速也触及历史最低水平。以Azure为核心的智慧云业务是微软下一步增长的关键。</p><p>所以，没有企业的时代，只有时代的企业。在瞬息万变的科技领域，各领风骚三五年，成败切换尤其残酷。这就是时势的力量。</p><p>面对大环境和大趋势，巨头们唯一不变的就是不断寻求变化实现增长，或者至少在此消彼长中立于不败之地。</p><p><b>有待提升的第二增长曲线</b></p><p>就像每个中年人都希望做点副业获得更多收入一样，巨头们也在打造新的增长点以获取持续的增长动力和安全感。</p><p>云业务就是微软、亚马逊、谷歌（Alphabet）的新增长希望。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f24aa8ac6c2beb41f189f54048bc47c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>过去一年多时间，微软Azure、亚马逊AWS、谷歌云每个季度仍保持30%-50%的高速增长。</p><p>2021全年，AWS 在亚马逊总营收中占比13.2%，同时贡献了55.5%的运营利润。</p><p>以Azure为核心的微软智能云去年全年总营收678亿美元，营业利润300亿美元，在微软总营收和总营业利润中分别占比36.7%和38.2%。</p><p>2021年，谷歌云收入192.1亿美元，营收占比7.5%，是谷歌收入占比第二大的单一业务。不过，谷歌云仍处于亏损状态，去年营业亏损超31亿美元。</p><p>总的来看，云业务在亚马逊、微软和Alphabet的营收中占比仍有待提高，目前还不能充当真正的营收顶梁柱。</p><p>在寻求新增长点上，Meta希望走一条云计算之外的路——Reality Labs，它包含了VR/AR以及元宇宙战略。</p><p>今年Q1，Meta 的Reality Labs 营收6.95 亿美元，同比增长30.15%，这部分收入的营收占比仅为2.6%，离真正的第二增长曲线还有很远的距离。</p><p>苹果的第二增长点来自互联网服务。今年Q1，苹果互联网服务实现收入198亿美元，在总营收中占比20.4%。</p><p>最近几年，苹果的服务收入保持稳定增长。今年Q1，随着苹果硬件收入放缓，其软件服务增速也有所下滑，同比增长17.3%，而此前几个季度的增速都在20%以上。</p><p><b>队伍不好带了</b></p><p>除了放缓的业绩，美国科技巨头还面临新的麻烦：工会组织正在风生水起。</p><p>4月1日，在纽约斯坦顿岛上一个被称为JFK8的亚马逊物流仓库内，亚马逊员工以55%的支持率，投票决定成立亚马逊史上第一家工会。</p><p>按照美国劳工法律，如果有资质的员工中有超过五成投票同意组建或者加入工会，就可以成立工会，然后上报全美劳资关系委员会批准。</p><p>目前，亚马逊全球的全职和兼职员工超过160万人，其中约110万在美国。它在美国是仅次于沃尔玛的第二大私营雇主。</p><p>但多年来，亚马逊的员工们对公司抱怨不断，他们对不够灵活的工作时间、恶劣的工作环境恶劣有诸多不满。</p><p>所以，亚马逊的蓝领员工（包括仓库员工、快递员等）一直试图成立工会，但一直因亚马逊的阻挠而失败。</p><p>第一个亚马逊工会的诉求很明确：通过集体谈判，为员工们争取更好的薪酬福利、工作环境和更长的休息时间等。</p><p>亚马逊不是唯一遭遇工会麻烦的美国科技巨头。</p><p>据《华尔街日报》4月初的报道，苹果公司的零售人员也在加紧行动，试图组建自己的工会，以获得更高的薪酬待遇，分享公司的发展成果。</p><p>去年1月，谷歌第一个工会——“Alphabet工会”宣告成立。他们《纽约时报》发表文章称，“工会将努力确保工人们了解自己的工作在做什么，获得合理的工资，同时不必担心受到虐待、报复和歧视”。</p><p>《纽约时报》在去年初的报道中称，过去几年来，员工维权行动已席卷硅谷。</p><p>《国际金融报》援引美国劳资关系委员会的数据称，2021年10月—2022年3月，该委员会共收到近1200份寻求工会代表的请愿书，同比增长57%，为10年来最高水平。</p><p>如果科技行业的工会组织不断壮大，意味着，科技巨头们要在人力资源上付出更高的代价，甚至员工管理的效率会因为工会的存在而被拉低，他们再难通过野蛮生长而获得快速发展。</p><p>大雨来临时，没有任何一片树叶能够幸免。美国科技巨头的遭遇有什么是值得中国科技企业借鉴和思考的呢？</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1622337641338","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国科技巨头的“中年危机”是如何形成的？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国科技巨头的“中年危机”是如何形成的？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-02 12:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-05-01/doc-imcwipii7536397.shtml><strong>好看商业</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>刚刚过去的四月，是美国科技股的“黑色四月”，悲观情绪蔓延。4月最后一个交易日，亚马逊一夜暴跌14%。整个4月，它的股价已经跌去23.8%，创下2008年1月大跌25.4%以来最大月度跌幅。无独有偶。谷歌母公司Alphabet的股价也4月份大跌18%，这是它自2008年以来最糟糕的一个月份。4月份，科技股为主的纳斯达克指数跌幅达到13.3%，创2008年金融危机以来最大月度跌幅。这背后，科技巨头业绩...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-05-01/doc-imcwipii7536397.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9affa90aeb60480d0aba843f0241d9e8","relate_stocks":{"BK4527":"明星科技股"},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-05-01/doc-imcwipii7536397.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117500727","content_text":"刚刚过去的四月，是美国科技股的“黑色四月”，悲观情绪蔓延。4月最后一个交易日，亚马逊一夜暴跌14%。整个4月，它的股价已经跌去23.8%，创下2008年1月大跌25.4%以来最大月度跌幅。无独有偶。谷歌母公司Alphabet的股价也4月份大跌18%，这是它自2008年以来最糟糕的一个月份。4月份，科技股为主的纳斯达克指数跌幅达到13.3%，创2008年金融危机以来最大月度跌幅。这背后，科技巨头业绩拉垮是其中一个关键原因。亚马逊Q1财报的财报堪称“全军覆灭”。这一季，其营收增速低于分析师预期，创下二十年来最低增速。其中线上销售、订阅服务和广告业务营收均不及分析师预期；云业务增速放缓。Q1经营利润也不及分析师预期。Alphabet的营收同比增长23%，其中占比超8成的广告业务同比增长22.3%，两项指标均创五个季度以来最低增速。曾经的优等生变成了表现不及格的差生，市场的失望之情可想而知。成立于1994年的亚马逊如今已经28岁，看起来却像迈入了中年。在这一点上，亚马逊并不是孤例。在过去，人们常用FAAMG来代指美股五大科技巨头——脸书(Facebook)、苹果(Apple)、亚马逊(Amazon)、微软(Microsoft)、谷歌(Google)。如今，脸书已经更名为Meta，谷歌也变成了Alphabet。他们都成功穿越了互联网、移动互联网，最老的微软如今已经47岁，最年轻的Meta也已经年过18。从今年Q1的财报来看，美国五大科技巨头纷纷表现出锐气不再、增长放缓的症状。此外，他们都面临新的麻烦：员工的工会组织纷纷成立，队伍不好带了。工会要代表员工向与他们谈判，争取更好的薪资待遇和工作环境。这意味着，科技巨头们要付出更高的代价。一场中年危机正在悄然来临。存量时代，越来越涨不动了美国五大科技巨头主要涉及三个大行业：消费、广告和企业服务；两个关键词：消费互联网和产业互联网。总的来看，全球消费互联网都处于存量争夺时代，受全球消费疲软影响，电商零售行业、智能硬件和在线广告的大盘增速都在放缓。这决定了其中的玩家们彼此竞争更加激烈，加上基数在变大，增速放缓是必然。据eMarketer的报告，2022年全球电商销售额预计将首次突破5万亿美元，占整体零售总额的1/5；2025年，这个数字或将突破7万亿美元。但从增速来看，将从2020年的26.4%降至2022年的12.2%，到2025年增速将降至个位数——9.2%。亚马逊已经是全球最大的电商零售平台，2021年净销售额4698亿美元，其中商品销售额约达2418亿美元。2021年，亚马逊同比增长22%，已经跑赢全球电商大盘16.3%的增速。今年Q1，亚马逊增速大跌至7.3%。这是亚马逊20年来的最低增速。去年同期，亚马逊实现了44%的增长。疫情之下的国际供应链变得低效而混乱，这严重影响了亚马逊的履约效率，导致其线上零售增长持续放缓，货运成本大幅提升。随着跨境电商新秀SHEIN、Shopify等的崛起，他们在疯狂与亚马逊争食国际市场，再加上俄乌战争，亚马逊的国际业务受到明显影响，收入下滑。在业务增长乏力的同时，亚马逊自身却处于新的投入期。2020年和2021年，公司在履约人力、场地等方面的投入翻倍，但2021年其零售业务的收入规模相比2019年只增长了65%。新的投入要带来新的营收和利润释放仍需要时间，再加上疫情和国际宏观形势的持续影响，亚马逊短期内似乎很难在财务和股价上得到明显的改善。全球消费疲软，智能硬件也未能独善其身。过去2年，全球智能手机出货量保持个位数增长或者负增长。今年Q1，全球智能手机市场出货量同比下滑7%。相比之下，苹果的表现超越大盘。今年Q1，苹果营收973亿美元，同比增长8.6%，高于彭博一致预期的940亿美元。其中主要得益于iPhone和Mac的拉动，两者该季度同比增幅分别达5.5%和14.6%。但总的来看，苹果这一季营收增速仍在下滑通道，创6个季度以来最低纪录，也首次跌破两位数。这背后，主要是苹果硬件业务增速下滑，本季度同比增长只有6.6%，为六个季度以来最低，包括iPad和智能穿戴设备本季度表现都低于市场预期。2022年以来，全球通胀高企，智能手机、PC等电子终端需求疲软。多家机构下调智手机出货量预测。Omdia最新数据显示，2022年智能手机显示屏需求较2021年实际出货量下降超过11%。下一步，疫情导致的供应链紧张、缺芯以及俄乌冲突也将持续对苹果业绩带来影响。苹果高管预计，受供应链短缺和中国工厂关闭等因素影响，二季度可能造成高达80亿美元的损失。疫情反复导致消费、旅游等行业受损严重，他们保存实力的第一举措可能就是消减广告等开支。这抑制了全球在线广告的增长。所以，尽管疫情期间人们花在网上冲浪的时间更长了，但是流量激增却没有带来广告收入的大幅上涨。据GIR的调研，2021年全球互联网广告收入大约2983亿美元，预计2028年达到6385亿美元，2022—2028期间，年复合增长率12.4%。而2014—2018年的年复合增长率为15.7%。Alphabet和Meta长期占据全球互联网广告第一和第二的位置，2021年二者的广告收入分别达到2094亿美元、1149亿美元。尽管如此，随着在线广告大盘增长放缓，以及各自基数变大，Alphabet和Meta的广告业务增速放缓难以避免。具体来看，2022年Q1，Alphabet营收同比增长23%，其中占比超8成的广告业务同比增长22.3%，均创五个季度以来最低增速；广告业务环去年Q4比下滑10.6%。广告是Meta收入的基本盘，目前营收占比超96%。今年Q1，Meta广告收入270亿美元，同比增长6.1%，低于市场预期的273亿美元；环比下滑17%。而其广告业务增速下滑的态势已经持续了一年时间。除了在线广告大盘增速放缓，竞争加剧也是导致Alphabet和Meta广告收入增长放缓的一大因素。全球在线广告市场几乎是一个零和游戏。现在，这个市场的玩家在变多，2021年，亚马逊、苹果以及TikTok等新玩家加速广告业务变现，来势凶猛。以TikTok为例，截至去年9月，其全球MAU已经突破10亿。总体年轻化的用户群体更有利于其商业化。据Insider Intelligence预测，2022年TikTok的广告收入规模有望达到110亿美元， 同比增长近175%。除了广告，其直播电商业务也在快速变现。Sensor tower的数据显示，2021年Q1 ，TikTok平台上消费者支出为8.21亿美元，是全球收入最高的非游戏类应用。尽管Alphabet和Meta都推出了短视频流媒体等新产品以应对来自TikTok的竞争，但这个战斗很难在短期内结束。相比之下，微软是美国五大科技巨头中表现最稳的一家。一年多来，其季度营收持续保持20%左右的同比增幅。这与微软的营收来源有关。微软目前三大块业务中，Office为主的“生产力与商业流程”业务和以Azure为核心的智慧云业务主要是TOB业务，目前合计营收贡献超过70%。其中，Azure在Q1收入114.5亿美元，同比增长46%。它的营收规模首次超越Office全线业务，成为微软收入绝对值最高，增速最快的业务。受益于云计算等新一代信息技术的发展，传统产业加速向数字化转型。据前瞻产业研究院的数据，2018-2020年全球数字经济规模持续上涨，2020年达到32.61万亿美元，占GDP比重为43.7%。不过，最近三个季度，微软的营收增速也处于持续下滑中。微软面向企业端的办公SaaS产品Office 365进入云端化红利尾声，收入持续放缓。而随着基数变大，Azure本季度的增速也触及历史最低水平。以Azure为核心的智慧云业务是微软下一步增长的关键。所以，没有企业的时代，只有时代的企业。在瞬息万变的科技领域，各领风骚三五年，成败切换尤其残酷。这就是时势的力量。面对大环境和大趋势，巨头们唯一不变的就是不断寻求变化实现增长，或者至少在此消彼长中立于不败之地。有待提升的第二增长曲线就像每个中年人都希望做点副业获得更多收入一样，巨头们也在打造新的增长点以获取持续的增长动力和安全感。云业务就是微软、亚马逊、谷歌（Alphabet）的新增长希望。过去一年多时间，微软Azure、亚马逊AWS、谷歌云每个季度仍保持30%-50%的高速增长。2021全年，AWS 在亚马逊总营收中占比13.2%，同时贡献了55.5%的运营利润。以Azure为核心的微软智能云去年全年总营收678亿美元，营业利润300亿美元，在微软总营收和总营业利润中分别占比36.7%和38.2%。2021年，谷歌云收入192.1亿美元，营收占比7.5%，是谷歌收入占比第二大的单一业务。不过，谷歌云仍处于亏损状态，去年营业亏损超31亿美元。总的来看，云业务在亚马逊、微软和Alphabet的营收中占比仍有待提高，目前还不能充当真正的营收顶梁柱。在寻求新增长点上，Meta希望走一条云计算之外的路——Reality Labs，它包含了VR/AR以及元宇宙战略。今年Q1，Meta 的Reality Labs 营收6.95 亿美元，同比增长30.15%，这部分收入的营收占比仅为2.6%，离真正的第二增长曲线还有很远的距离。苹果的第二增长点来自互联网服务。今年Q1，苹果互联网服务实现收入198亿美元，在总营收中占比20.4%。最近几年，苹果的服务收入保持稳定增长。今年Q1，随着苹果硬件收入放缓，其软件服务增速也有所下滑，同比增长17.3%，而此前几个季度的增速都在20%以上。队伍不好带了除了放缓的业绩，美国科技巨头还面临新的麻烦：工会组织正在风生水起。4月1日，在纽约斯坦顿岛上一个被称为JFK8的亚马逊物流仓库内，亚马逊员工以55%的支持率，投票决定成立亚马逊史上第一家工会。按照美国劳工法律，如果有资质的员工中有超过五成投票同意组建或者加入工会，就可以成立工会，然后上报全美劳资关系委员会批准。目前，亚马逊全球的全职和兼职员工超过160万人，其中约110万在美国。它在美国是仅次于沃尔玛的第二大私营雇主。但多年来，亚马逊的员工们对公司抱怨不断，他们对不够灵活的工作时间、恶劣的工作环境恶劣有诸多不满。所以，亚马逊的蓝领员工（包括仓库员工、快递员等）一直试图成立工会，但一直因亚马逊的阻挠而失败。第一个亚马逊工会的诉求很明确：通过集体谈判，为员工们争取更好的薪酬福利、工作环境和更长的休息时间等。亚马逊不是唯一遭遇工会麻烦的美国科技巨头。据《华尔街日报》4月初的报道，苹果公司的零售人员也在加紧行动，试图组建自己的工会，以获得更高的薪酬待遇，分享公司的发展成果。去年1月，谷歌第一个工会——“Alphabet工会”宣告成立。他们《纽约时报》发表文章称，“工会将努力确保工人们了解自己的工作在做什么，获得合理的工资，同时不必担心受到虐待、报复和歧视”。《纽约时报》在去年初的报道中称，过去几年来，员工维权行动已席卷硅谷。《国际金融报》援引美国劳资关系委员会的数据称，2021年10月—2022年3月，该委员会共收到近1200份寻求工会代表的请愿书，同比增长57%，为10年来最高水平。如果科技行业的工会组织不断壮大，意味着，科技巨头们要在人力资源上付出更高的代价，甚至员工管理的效率会因为工会的存在而被拉低，他们再难通过野蛮生长而获得快速发展。大雨来临时，没有任何一片树叶能够幸免。美国科技巨头的遭遇有什么是值得中国科技企业借鉴和思考的呢？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":611770624,"gmtCreate":1650647171874,"gmtModify":1650647171874,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a>还得继续跌，这个roe和净值，这个市盈率和股价，在增长停止的情况下明显不合理","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a>还得继续跌，这个roe和净值，这个市盈率和股价，在增长停止的情况下明显不合理","text":"$奈飞(NFLX)$还得继续跌，这个roe和净值，这个市盈率和股价，在增长停止的情况下明显不合理","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/611770624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":634356881,"gmtCreate":1647361973875,"gmtModify":1647361973875,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a>又3000点是吧😅","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a>又3000点是吧😅","text":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$又3000点是吧😅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/634356881","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845257656,"gmtCreate":1636344823472,"gmtModify":1636344823472,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"投机势头太猛，明眼人都不会跟风的","listText":"投机势头太猛，明眼人都不会跟风的","text":"投机势头太猛，明眼人都不会跟风的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845257656","repostId":"2181723511","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2181723511","pubTimestamp":1636321200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2181723511?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-08 05:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"外媒头条：伯克希尔业绩大降！巴菲特持有现金再创新高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2181723511","media":"新浪财经","summary":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、美参议员提出法案 拟限制科技巨头收购竞争对手\n\n\n2、沙特阿拉伯超预期上调油价 此前OPEC+对美国的增产呼吁不予理睬\n\n\n3、伯克希尔三季度业绩","content":"<p><b>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>1、美参议员提出法案 拟限制科技巨头收购竞争对手</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>2、沙特阿拉伯超预期上调油价 此前OPEC+对美国的增产呼吁不予理睬</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>三季度业绩大降逾六成 巴菲特手握1492亿美元现金储备</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>将退出主经纪商业务 重心转向财富管理</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>5、大型科技股公司估值过高 分析师建议分散投资</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>6、美国消费价格涨幅会达到1990年以来的最高水平吗？</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faf0308efebc113101bff15ad31bd5ec\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>美参议员提出法案 拟限制科技巨头收购竞争对手</b></p>\n<p>当地时间周五（11月5日），美国参议院司法委员会反垄断小组主席、民主党参议员Amy Klobuchar的办公室表示，Klobuchar和共和党参议员Tom Cotton提出了一项针对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>和Facebook等大型科技公司的法案。</p>\n<p>该法案将使政府更容易阻止其认为违反反垄断法的交易，法案要求这些科技公司需要向法官证明其进行的收购交易有利于竞争，因此是合法的。</p>\n<p>“我们看到越来越多的公司选择收购竞争对手，而不是与其竞争。”参议员Klobuchar在一份声明中表示，“这项两党立法将使占主导地位的数字平台更难消除竞争对手，并增强平台的市场影响力，从而终结这些反竞争收购。”</p>\n<p>其他提出的法案试图控制科技公司过大的市场力量，包括像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>这样的行业领袖。到目前为止，没有一项成为法律，尽管参议院通过了一项将增加反垄断执法人员资源的法律。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b363ef27cd5bd0b7c40db27e78638a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>沙特阿拉伯超预期上调油价 此前OPEC+对美国的增产呼吁不予理睬</b></p>\n<p>全球最大独立石油交易商Vitol称，沙特阿拉伯调高油价的幅度高于预期，这反映该国很可能将继续抵制美国要求其增产的压力。</p>\n<p>OPEC+上周四（11月4日）决定维持12月减产收缩幅度40万桶不变后，沙特阿美在上周五调高12月付运予亚洲、美国与欧洲客户的官方售价（OSP）差额。</p>\n<p>Vitol亚洲主管Mike Muller表示，虽然调升幅度不是很大，但也高于市场估计，而且亚洲OSP已经升至本世纪第三高，这反映出沙特阿美猜测OPEC+将不会大幅度增产。</p>\n<p>在OPEC+会议后，沙特能源部长阿卜杜勒表示，欧佩克保持了石油市场比天然气和煤炭市场更加平衡。由于供应紧张，欧洲部分地区这两种燃料的价格近几个月飙升至创纪录水平。</p>\n<p>自6月底以来，欧洲的天然气期货价格上涨了一倍多，煤炭价格上涨了25%。相比之下，布伦特原油价格上涨了10%。</p>\n<p>“石油不是问题所在，”阿卜杜勒表示，“问题是能源综合体正在经历浩劫和地狱。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/699f5e49a5510a2fdedb539cc79d3dc6\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>三季度业绩大降逾六成 巴菲特手握1492亿美元现金储备</b></p>\n<p>当地时间周六（11月6日）早晨，伯克希尔哈撒韦披露最新财报，公司表示全球供应链的中断限制了其创收能力，而公平成本的上升则促使该公司进行回购，增加资金储备。</p>\n<p>根据公司披露，Q3总共实现营收705亿美元，去年同期为630亿美元，市场预期742亿美元。实现归属于公司股东的净利润103.44亿美元，同比下降65.68%；截至三季度末，其现金储备达到创纪录的1492亿美元。</p>\n<p>伯克希尔三季度的保险业务亏损大幅扩大。由于伯克希尔旗下的保险公司受到了包括飓风艾达在内的风暴冲击，该业务的承保损失在第三季度扩大到7.84亿美元，较去年同期2.13亿美元的损失大幅扩大，其三大保险集团都报告了承保损失。</p>\n<p>财报显示，第三季度的现金储备达到1492亿美元的新高，超过2020年初创下的纪录高点。尽管在此期间，巴菲特还投入76亿美元回购本公司股票，创出2018年董事会调整回购政策以来纪录第三高水平。</p>\n<p>巴菲特一直面临着伯克希尔钱太多但可供投资的高回报率资产欠缺的问题。由于最近几个季度没有重大交易，这位伯克希尔首席执行官经常将回购作为用掉现金的一种方式。但即便是第三季度的回购水平上升，仍不足以阻止伯克希尔的资金量膨胀。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/251e4aa32dcaa97605494ba2d2f280e5\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>将退出主经纪商业务 重心转向财富管理</b></p>\n<p>瑞士信贷集团上周四宣布，将退出主经纪商业务，并将重心从投行转向财富管理。Archegos爆仓事件后，瑞士信贷新任董事长希望降低公司的风险敞口。</p>\n<p>António Horta-Osório是瑞信的新任董事长，他周四（11月4日）公布第三季度强劲业绩的同时还披露了他的战略。他告诉分析师，“没有速效的解决办法，还有很多工作要做”。Horta-Osório称将限制其投资银行家，并将资金投入财富管理领域。瑞信正努力遏制放任自流的文化，这种文化已使其在一系列丑闻中损失了数十亿美元。</p>\n<p>Horta-Osório计划对瑞士信贷集团实施改革，Horta-Osório将调整一些资本配置和报告关系，但他的主要目标是强化瑞信的风险文化，同时保持其创业精神。</p>\n<p>Horta-Osório对瑞士报纸表示，瑞信的大股东支持其新策略，并表示瑞信还将改革高管薪酬体系，以降低风险。</p>\n<p>根据Refinitiv的数据，瑞信最大的股东Harris Associates持有4.9%的股份。Harris Associates也在周日发表的另一篇采访中支持这一策略。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37fdff570a6105619fb0c13aaa52beb3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>大型科技股公司估值过高 分析师建议分散投资</b></p>\n<p>美国部分大型科技股估计在业绩公布后不断上升，相关龙头的股价在今年升幅相当厉害，有分析师建议投资者考虑多元化，转持其它落后大市的公司。</p>\n<p>一些投资者担心，科技龙头的估值处于极高水平。以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet为例，其股价相当于26.6倍预期市盈率，远高于标普500指数的21.1倍；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>股价相当于26.2倍预期市盈率。信息技术板块相当于26.4倍预期市盈率。</p>\n<p>Natixis Investment Managers Solutions的投资组合策略师Garret Melson认为，大型科技股公司短期将有调整压力，因为基金经理获利回吐的诱因高，而且可能把资金转至其他更具上升潜力的行业。Melson认为金融和能源等能从经济增长中受益的行业，年底前可能会挑战大型科技股。</p>\n<p>同样看好能源与分析行业的还有DataTrek，该行分析师认为这两个行业截止年底的回报将可与科技股看齐。“科技股很可能保持稳健增长，但在投资者可考虑组合多元化，寻找对经济基本面改善有更多敞口的行业。”</p>\n<p>Janus Henderson投资组合经理兼科技板块主管Denny Fish表示，科技股偏高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>胀并不利于该类公司，因此已经调整组合，转持那些将从巨头成长中获益的小型公司。Fish看好澳大利亚软件开发公司Atlassian $PLC(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLC\">PLC</a>)$的股票，该公司的产品管理工具“增强”了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>的应用程序套件，以及加拿大电子商务公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify Inc</a>的股票，该公司受益于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>的增长。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d6fd3c74d4342c28ae73668e117ab\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>美国消费价格涨幅会达到1990年以来的最高水平吗？</b></p>\n<p>上周五，美国众议院以228票对206票获得通过了一项超过1万亿美元的跨党派基础设施法案，接下来法案将提交给拜登签署，成为民主党政府自春季批准1.9万亿美元的救助计划以来最重要立法成就。</p>\n<p>本周，在数据方面，通胀将成为焦点。周三，美国劳工统计局将公布美国10月份消费者价格指数（CPI），预计CPI数据会再次加速增长，结束持续的温和增长，并加剧人们对高通胀持续时间将超过预期的担忧。</p>\n<p>华尔街经济学家预测，CPI预计将较去年同期上涨5.8%。这比9月份的5.4%有所改善，是自1990年以来的最高水平。</p>\n<p>彭博一致预测显示，物价环比上涨0.6%。在8月和9月之间，上涨了0.4%。</p>\n<p>如果不包括食品和能源等波动较大的大宗商品，预计10月份的价格涨幅将较为温和，但仍将保持高位。核心CPI预计将从9月份的4%上升至4.3%。预计比前一个月增长0.4%，是前一个月的两倍。</p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外媒头条：伯克希尔业绩大降！巴菲特持有现金再创新高</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外媒头条：伯克希尔业绩大降！巴菲特持有现金再创新高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-08 05:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-11-08/doc-iktzscyy4241168.shtml><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、美参议员提出法案 拟限制科技巨头收购竞争对手\n\n\n2、沙特阿拉伯超预期上调油价 此前OPEC+对美国的增产呼吁不予理睬\n\n\n3、伯克希尔三季度业绩大降逾六成 巴菲特手握1492亿美元现金储备\n\n\n4、瑞士信贷将退出主经纪商业务 重心转向财富管理\n\n\n5、大型科技股公司估值过高 分析师建议分散投资\n\n\n6、美国消费价格涨幅会达到1990年以来的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-11-08/doc-iktzscyy4241168.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8356647b06585ac937a0f45e6aeb17","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B",".DJI":"道琼斯","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-11-08/doc-iktzscyy4241168.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2181723511","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、美参议员提出法案 拟限制科技巨头收购竞争对手\n\n\n2、沙特阿拉伯超预期上调油价 此前OPEC+对美国的增产呼吁不予理睬\n\n\n3、伯克希尔三季度业绩大降逾六成 巴菲特手握1492亿美元现金储备\n\n\n4、瑞士信贷将退出主经纪商业务 重心转向财富管理\n\n\n5、大型科技股公司估值过高 分析师建议分散投资\n\n\n6、美国消费价格涨幅会达到1990年以来的最高水平吗？\n\n\n美参议员提出法案 拟限制科技巨头收购竞争对手\n当地时间周五（11月5日），美国参议院司法委员会反垄断小组主席、民主党参议员Amy Klobuchar的办公室表示，Klobuchar和共和党参议员Tom Cotton提出了一项针对谷歌和Facebook等大型科技公司的法案。\n该法案将使政府更容易阻止其认为违反反垄断法的交易，法案要求这些科技公司需要向法官证明其进行的收购交易有利于竞争，因此是合法的。\n“我们看到越来越多的公司选择收购竞争对手，而不是与其竞争。”参议员Klobuchar在一份声明中表示，“这项两党立法将使占主导地位的数字平台更难消除竞争对手，并增强平台的市场影响力，从而终结这些反竞争收购。”\n其他提出的法案试图控制科技公司过大的市场力量，包括像苹果这样的行业领袖。到目前为止，没有一项成为法律，尽管参议院通过了一项将增加反垄断执法人员资源的法律。\n\n沙特阿拉伯超预期上调油价 此前OPEC+对美国的增产呼吁不予理睬\n全球最大独立石油交易商Vitol称，沙特阿拉伯调高油价的幅度高于预期，这反映该国很可能将继续抵制美国要求其增产的压力。\nOPEC+上周四（11月4日）决定维持12月减产收缩幅度40万桶不变后，沙特阿美在上周五调高12月付运予亚洲、美国与欧洲客户的官方售价（OSP）差额。\nVitol亚洲主管Mike Muller表示，虽然调升幅度不是很大，但也高于市场估计，而且亚洲OSP已经升至本世纪第三高，这反映出沙特阿美猜测OPEC+将不会大幅度增产。\n在OPEC+会议后，沙特能源部长阿卜杜勒表示，欧佩克保持了石油市场比天然气和煤炭市场更加平衡。由于供应紧张，欧洲部分地区这两种燃料的价格近几个月飙升至创纪录水平。\n自6月底以来，欧洲的天然气期货价格上涨了一倍多，煤炭价格上涨了25%。相比之下，布伦特原油价格上涨了10%。\n“石油不是问题所在，”阿卜杜勒表示，“问题是能源综合体正在经历浩劫和地狱。”\n\n伯克希尔三季度业绩大降逾六成 巴菲特手握1492亿美元现金储备\n当地时间周六（11月6日）早晨，伯克希尔哈撒韦披露最新财报，公司表示全球供应链的中断限制了其创收能力，而公平成本的上升则促使该公司进行回购，增加资金储备。\n根据公司披露，Q3总共实现营收705亿美元，去年同期为630亿美元，市场预期742亿美元。实现归属于公司股东的净利润103.44亿美元，同比下降65.68%；截至三季度末，其现金储备达到创纪录的1492亿美元。\n伯克希尔三季度的保险业务亏损大幅扩大。由于伯克希尔旗下的保险公司受到了包括飓风艾达在内的风暴冲击，该业务的承保损失在第三季度扩大到7.84亿美元，较去年同期2.13亿美元的损失大幅扩大，其三大保险集团都报告了承保损失。\n财报显示，第三季度的现金储备达到1492亿美元的新高，超过2020年初创下的纪录高点。尽管在此期间，巴菲特还投入76亿美元回购本公司股票，创出2018年董事会调整回购政策以来纪录第三高水平。\n巴菲特一直面临着伯克希尔钱太多但可供投资的高回报率资产欠缺的问题。由于最近几个季度没有重大交易，这位伯克希尔首席执行官经常将回购作为用掉现金的一种方式。但即便是第三季度的回购水平上升，仍不足以阻止伯克希尔的资金量膨胀。\n\n瑞士信贷将退出主经纪商业务 重心转向财富管理\n瑞士信贷集团上周四宣布，将退出主经纪商业务，并将重心从投行转向财富管理。Archegos爆仓事件后，瑞士信贷新任董事长希望降低公司的风险敞口。\nAntónio Horta-Osório是瑞信的新任董事长，他周四（11月4日）公布第三季度强劲业绩的同时还披露了他的战略。他告诉分析师，“没有速效的解决办法，还有很多工作要做”。Horta-Osório称将限制其投资银行家，并将资金投入财富管理领域。瑞信正努力遏制放任自流的文化，这种文化已使其在一系列丑闻中损失了数十亿美元。\nHorta-Osório计划对瑞士信贷集团实施改革，Horta-Osório将调整一些资本配置和报告关系，但他的主要目标是强化瑞信的风险文化，同时保持其创业精神。\nHorta-Osório对瑞士报纸表示，瑞信的大股东支持其新策略，并表示瑞信还将改革高管薪酬体系，以降低风险。\n根据Refinitiv的数据，瑞信最大的股东Harris Associates持有4.9%的股份。Harris Associates也在周日发表的另一篇采访中支持这一策略。\n\n大型科技股公司估值过高 分析师建议分散投资\n美国部分大型科技股估计在业绩公布后不断上升，相关龙头的股价在今年升幅相当厉害，有分析师建议投资者考虑多元化，转持其它落后大市的公司。\n一些投资者担心，科技龙头的估值处于极高水平。以谷歌母公司Alphabet为例，其股价相当于26.6倍预期市盈率，远高于标普500指数的21.1倍；苹果股价相当于26.2倍预期市盈率。信息技术板块相当于26.4倍预期市盈率。\nNatixis Investment Managers Solutions的投资组合策略师Garret Melson认为，大型科技股公司短期将有调整压力，因为基金经理获利回吐的诱因高，而且可能把资金转至其他更具上升潜力的行业。Melson认为金融和能源等能从经济增长中受益的行业，年底前可能会挑战大型科技股。\n同样看好能源与分析行业的还有DataTrek，该行分析师认为这两个行业截止年底的回报将可与科技股看齐。“科技股很可能保持稳健增长，但在投资者可考虑组合多元化，寻找对经济基本面改善有更多敞口的行业。”\nJanus Henderson投资组合经理兼科技板块主管Denny Fish表示，科技股偏高，高通胀并不利于该类公司，因此已经调整组合，转持那些将从巨头成长中获益的小型公司。Fish看好澳大利亚软件开发公司Atlassian $PLC(PLC)$的股票，该公司的产品管理工具“增强”了微软的应用程序套件，以及加拿大电子商务公司Shopify Inc的股票，该公司受益于亚马逊的增长。\n\n美国消费价格涨幅会达到1990年以来的最高水平吗？\n上周五，美国众议院以228票对206票获得通过了一项超过1万亿美元的跨党派基础设施法案，接下来法案将提交给拜登签署，成为民主党政府自春季批准1.9万亿美元的救助计划以来最重要立法成就。\n本周，在数据方面，通胀将成为焦点。周三，美国劳工统计局将公布美国10月份消费者价格指数（CPI），预计CPI数据会再次加速增长，结束持续的温和增长，并加剧人们对高通胀持续时间将超过预期的担忧。\n华尔街经济学家预测，CPI预计将较去年同期上涨5.8%。这比9月份的5.4%有所改善，是自1990年以来的最高水平。\n彭博一致预测显示，物价环比上涨0.6%。在8月和9月之间，上涨了0.4%。\n如果不包括食品和能源等波动较大的大宗商品，预计10月份的价格涨幅将较为温和，但仍将保持高位。核心CPI预计将从9月份的4%上升至4.3%。预计比前一个月增长0.4%，是前一个月的两倍。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":128151065,"gmtCreate":1624507500757,"gmtModify":1624507500757,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ibm估值合理，并未低估","listText":"ibm估值合理，并未低估","text":"ibm估值合理，并未低估","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128151065","repostId":"1182818110","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182818110","pubTimestamp":1624504323,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182818110?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 11:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Bull Is Far From Over: 3 Undervalued Blue Chip Dividend Buys","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182818110","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Fed jolted investors last week, before Powell backpedalled to reassure everyone.\nThis s","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Fed jolted investors last week, before Powell backpedalled to reassure everyone.</li>\n <li>This shows just how difficult it will be for the Fed to actually rein in the economy.</li>\n <li>Some value names are once again on our \"buy list\". Here are three great ones.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>On a recent Bloomberg video call, Ray Dalio suggested that the Fed will have a lot of trouble doing any rate hike without having significantly adverse effects on stocks.</p>\n<p>Following the Fed meeting last week, the news that rates might be raised in two years rather than three gave the markets a jolt, as the message was interpreted as hawkish by the investing community.</p>\n<p>This caused Jerome Powell to backpedal, reminding everyone of his favorite word: \"transitory\". It was important that he once again reminded everyone that inflation would head back to 2%, and that nobody needs to worry.</p>\n<p>He did cover his 6 however,stating:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>We have to be very humble about our ability to really try to draw a signal out of it [...] It might take some patience to really see what’s happening.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Larry Summers had adifferent take on it: \n <i>I don't think the arithmetic is terribly difficult.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i> You're looking at an average GDP gap deficit to potential GDP of 2%, and we're looking at a 14% of GDP fiscal stimulus. [...] The important question is whether there is 6 points of transitory inflation or 2 points of transitory inflation.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>This idea is very important. Rather than asking whether inflation is transitory or not, we should be asking how much of it is transitory.</p>\n<p>And this is where the risk currently lies. While the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) performed a roundtrip from 4250 to 4250 with a 90 point drop in between, a lot of the more cyclical stocks took a hit which put them back in our \"Buy List\".</p>\n<p>Our take is that the Fed is realizing that it can't really increase rates without causing ruckus in markets.</p>\n<p>When you add this to the fact that they might not have any choice but to keep printing money to buy bonds as the supply of bonds might overshoot the demand of these from foreign countries who already hold lots of US debt and show limited interest in purchasing the debt at negative real interest rates. This is according to Ray Dalio in the same call with Larry Summers mentioned above.</p>\n<p>The risk of monetary inflation is very real. The likelihood of demand to continue increasing dramatically as money stored in financial markets hits the economy is also very high.</p>\n<p>What we've learned in investing, is that investors are too eager to wrap up a trade and move on to the \"next thing\". Many times, this is shortsighted, as even when the train has left the station, there is a lot of track left ahead.</p>\n<p>This is one of these situations.</p>\n<p>Valuations in high quality blue chips which are sensitive to the economy reopening are still so far from pre-Covid levels.</p>\n<p>The fact that they are taking a breather doesn't detract from their ultimate destination, which is a lot higher.</p>\n<p>In this article I highlight 3 such stocks.</p>\n<p>Plus in the meantime you get to sleep well at night, knowing that they offer a great combination of dividend yield and dividend growth.</p>\n<p>Heads you win, tails you win more.</p>\n<p><b>IBM (IBM)</b></p>\n<p>While IBM has increased from our latest mention of it in a public article, when we were purchasing the stock at a 5%+ yield, it still hovers just below our target \"Buy Below\" price of $150, courtesy of a small pull back last week.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8abbcb78d88ebe9b82eb258078cd4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe.</span></p>\n<p>Dividend growth has come to a stand still, and while we loaded up lower, it is still a great opportunity.</p>\n<p>The real value lies in the fact that investors are not pricing Krishna's operational excellence since taking over.</p>\n<p>IBM stunned investors with its Q1 results. Fellow author Virginia Backaitis states in her excellent articleanalyzing IBM'soperations:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>I like how Krishna is thinking, and I like former Red Hat CEO Jim Whitehurst at his side. They are making purchases that align with IBM's strategy which hasn't always been the case at the company. The product lines that IBM is selling off now are smart choices... and they have others left to sell (but maybe there isn't a buyer).</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>This value will likely be realized following the spin-off of the legacy business into an entity which will benamed kyndryl.</p>\n<p>Investors will likely be left with a high yield managed infrastructure business, and a low yield high growth cloud stock.</p>\n<p>When it happens, we'll decide which of both we'll hold onto, but we're quite confident that the two pieces will be worth than the sum of the part.</p>\n<p>And while you wait for this, you still get paid 4.5% by a super safe Blue Chip stock, which has the pricing power to fight inflation.</p>\n<p><b>KeyCorp (KEY)</b></p>\n<p>One thing the last round of stress tests showed, was that US banks are resilient, and well capitalized. Yet last week they took a hit after the fed meeting. This week stress tests will be released, and most large banks are expected to do really well.</p>\n<p>After that, dividend increases will come in July as banks are eager to start returning wealth to shareholders.</p>\n<p>Keycorp is no exception. For an analysis of KEY's earnings development you can read Sheen Bay Research'sarticleon the stock.</p>\n<p>Where I differ from his opinion is on the question of the dividend. While he doesn't expect a dividend hike, I expect all major banks to compete in their dividend increases.</p>\n<p>What investors must not forget is that in 2008 KEY paid a dividend of $0.38 per quarter, or double the current dividend.</p>\n<p>Since then, the company has been slowly redeeming itself, increasing the dividend every year.</p>\n<p>The pandemic restrictions stopped KEY in their tracks.</p>\n<p>A look at our MAD Chart shows how eager the bank was at returning capital to shareholders in the past 10 years. Each time the dividend increases, the inferred value ranges shown on the MAD chart goes up.</p>\n<p>In the past 10 years the dividend grew at 20% per annum, the rate dropped to 15% in the past 5 years, hindered by 0 growth last year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce032ffe59e73db2d6a1e09b4ff723b4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe.</span></p>\n<p>I believe that a 10-15% increase is very likely this year.</p>\n<p>In this event, KEY's current yield of 3.6% would effectively become a 4% yield.</p>\n<p>But to get fantastic income from KEY, you don't even need that much growth.</p>\n<p>At a 3.6% yield, if you can get 7.5% annual dividend growth you get a fantastic income opportunity.</p>\n<p>Let's look at a simulation.</p>\n<p>Let's suggest a $10K investment in KEY, with dividends reinvested and dividend growth of 7.5% per annum.</p>\n<p>In year 10, you'd expect $1,004 of income, or 10% of your original investment, which is our threshold for a \"great\" income opportunity.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c24e62697eb475528e1b9f04686a12\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe.</span></p>\n<p>In our mind there is no way that KEY doesn't grow at this rate, which would suggest hitting its pre 2008 dividend in 10 years.</p>\n<p>As such we believe KEY to be a great pick for income investors. As KEY's dividend growth is on the back of growth in earnings and tangible book value per share, there is no doubt in our mind that sooner or later, the price will catch up with the higher income. The fed stress tests might be the catalyst banks need to move higher.</p>\n<p>In the meantime get paid to wait.</p>\n<p><b>Chevron (CVX)</b></p>\n<p>Chevron is another stock which is hovering just below our target \"Buy Below\" price.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/100902df9308eeb7576e22704f403240\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe.</span></p>\n<p>We're surprised that the oil trade is taking so long to play out. In late 2015, early 2016, the recovery to historically normal yields was a lot faster.</p>\n<p>Yet CVX still yields 5%, after proving its resilience, superior balance sheet and increasing the dividend by 4% this year, sustaining their history of higher dividends every year for the past three decades.</p>\n<p>Consider the following slide from their latestearnings call:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b49cefbd9ee55c299d2b3a03211a3b6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Earnings Call.</span></p>\n<p>At $40 brent, the dividend is covered with a little extra debt. As the energy major with the best balance sheet, it can afford this. At $60 brent, there would be excess cash above $25bn, or enough to fund the dividend for two and a half years.</p>\n<p>Brent is currently above $70. The longer it stays above that level, the higher the likelihood that CVX will actually have the excess cash suggested in the latter scenario.</p>\n<p>Back in August last year we suggested that you'll belaughing your wayto the bank with CVX's 6% yield.</p>\n<p>Since then, CVX has marginally beaten the S&amp;P 500, but is far from over.</p>\n<p>In the past 10 years CVX has yielded a median 3.86%. Its forward outlook is arguably better now than it was in much of the past decade, which had the energy market dealing with endemic oversupply. With underinvestment, the opposite is likely to be true in upcoming years.</p>\n<p>If anything CVX should gravitate back towards its median yield which suggests further upside of 20%, much of which we expect will be realized in the latter half of 2021.</p>\n<p>If you simulate a $10K investment in CVX assuming a 5% yield and 4% dividend growth, and reinvest dividends, then in year 10 you'd expect $1,154 in dividends of which $409 is expected to come from dividend reinvestments.</p>\n<p>This equates to 11.54% of the initial investment, making CVX also an excellent income opportunity at current prices.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e365890df23b4af31565c7b170c14f\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe.</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>As long term dividend investors, we're always eager to get top companies at great valuations. The fed meeting changed nothing to the reopening trade. If anything it gave them a warning that even the slightest hint of a rate increase would be interpreted as hawkish, which will likely have the consequence of them acting later than they should, which exacerbates the likelihood of the value trade continuing.</p>\n<p>Don't confuse the market taking a breather with the end of the trade.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Bull Is Far From Over: 3 Undervalued Blue Chip Dividend Buys</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Bull Is Far From Over: 3 Undervalued Blue Chip Dividend Buys\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 11:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436276-this-bull-is-far-from-over-3-undervalued-blue-chip-dividend-buys><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Fed jolted investors last week, before Powell backpedalled to reassure everyone.\nThis shows just how difficult it will be for the Fed to actually rein in the economy.\nSome value names are...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436276-this-bull-is-far-from-over-3-undervalued-blue-chip-dividend-buys\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KEY":"KeyCorp","IBM":"IBM","CVX":"雪佛龙"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436276-this-bull-is-far-from-over-3-undervalued-blue-chip-dividend-buys","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1182818110","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Fed jolted investors last week, before Powell backpedalled to reassure everyone.\nThis shows just how difficult it will be for the Fed to actually rein in the economy.\nSome value names are once again on our \"buy list\". Here are three great ones.\n\nIntroduction\nOn a recent Bloomberg video call, Ray Dalio suggested that the Fed will have a lot of trouble doing any rate hike without having significantly adverse effects on stocks.\nFollowing the Fed meeting last week, the news that rates might be raised in two years rather than three gave the markets a jolt, as the message was interpreted as hawkish by the investing community.\nThis caused Jerome Powell to backpedal, reminding everyone of his favorite word: \"transitory\". It was important that he once again reminded everyone that inflation would head back to 2%, and that nobody needs to worry.\nHe did cover his 6 however,stating:\n\nWe have to be very humble about our ability to really try to draw a signal out of it [...] It might take some patience to really see what’s happening.\n\n\n Larry Summers had adifferent take on it: \n I don't think the arithmetic is terribly difficult.\n\n\n You're looking at an average GDP gap deficit to potential GDP of 2%, and we're looking at a 14% of GDP fiscal stimulus. [...] The important question is whether there is 6 points of transitory inflation or 2 points of transitory inflation.\n\nThis idea is very important. Rather than asking whether inflation is transitory or not, we should be asking how much of it is transitory.\nAnd this is where the risk currently lies. While the S&P 500 (SPY) performed a roundtrip from 4250 to 4250 with a 90 point drop in between, a lot of the more cyclical stocks took a hit which put them back in our \"Buy List\".\nOur take is that the Fed is realizing that it can't really increase rates without causing ruckus in markets.\nWhen you add this to the fact that they might not have any choice but to keep printing money to buy bonds as the supply of bonds might overshoot the demand of these from foreign countries who already hold lots of US debt and show limited interest in purchasing the debt at negative real interest rates. This is according to Ray Dalio in the same call with Larry Summers mentioned above.\nThe risk of monetary inflation is very real. The likelihood of demand to continue increasing dramatically as money stored in financial markets hits the economy is also very high.\nWhat we've learned in investing, is that investors are too eager to wrap up a trade and move on to the \"next thing\". Many times, this is shortsighted, as even when the train has left the station, there is a lot of track left ahead.\nThis is one of these situations.\nValuations in high quality blue chips which are sensitive to the economy reopening are still so far from pre-Covid levels.\nThe fact that they are taking a breather doesn't detract from their ultimate destination, which is a lot higher.\nIn this article I highlight 3 such stocks.\nPlus in the meantime you get to sleep well at night, knowing that they offer a great combination of dividend yield and dividend growth.\nHeads you win, tails you win more.\nIBM (IBM)\nWhile IBM has increased from our latest mention of it in a public article, when we were purchasing the stock at a 5%+ yield, it still hovers just below our target \"Buy Below\" price of $150, courtesy of a small pull back last week.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe.\nDividend growth has come to a stand still, and while we loaded up lower, it is still a great opportunity.\nThe real value lies in the fact that investors are not pricing Krishna's operational excellence since taking over.\nIBM stunned investors with its Q1 results. Fellow author Virginia Backaitis states in her excellent articleanalyzing IBM'soperations:\n\nI like how Krishna is thinking, and I like former Red Hat CEO Jim Whitehurst at his side. They are making purchases that align with IBM's strategy which hasn't always been the case at the company. The product lines that IBM is selling off now are smart choices... and they have others left to sell (but maybe there isn't a buyer).\n\nThis value will likely be realized following the spin-off of the legacy business into an entity which will benamed kyndryl.\nInvestors will likely be left with a high yield managed infrastructure business, and a low yield high growth cloud stock.\nWhen it happens, we'll decide which of both we'll hold onto, but we're quite confident that the two pieces will be worth than the sum of the part.\nAnd while you wait for this, you still get paid 4.5% by a super safe Blue Chip stock, which has the pricing power to fight inflation.\nKeyCorp (KEY)\nOne thing the last round of stress tests showed, was that US banks are resilient, and well capitalized. Yet last week they took a hit after the fed meeting. This week stress tests will be released, and most large banks are expected to do really well.\nAfter that, dividend increases will come in July as banks are eager to start returning wealth to shareholders.\nKeycorp is no exception. For an analysis of KEY's earnings development you can read Sheen Bay Research'sarticleon the stock.\nWhere I differ from his opinion is on the question of the dividend. While he doesn't expect a dividend hike, I expect all major banks to compete in their dividend increases.\nWhat investors must not forget is that in 2008 KEY paid a dividend of $0.38 per quarter, or double the current dividend.\nSince then, the company has been slowly redeeming itself, increasing the dividend every year.\nThe pandemic restrictions stopped KEY in their tracks.\nA look at our MAD Chart shows how eager the bank was at returning capital to shareholders in the past 10 years. Each time the dividend increases, the inferred value ranges shown on the MAD chart goes up.\nIn the past 10 years the dividend grew at 20% per annum, the rate dropped to 15% in the past 5 years, hindered by 0 growth last year.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe.\nI believe that a 10-15% increase is very likely this year.\nIn this event, KEY's current yield of 3.6% would effectively become a 4% yield.\nBut to get fantastic income from KEY, you don't even need that much growth.\nAt a 3.6% yield, if you can get 7.5% annual dividend growth you get a fantastic income opportunity.\nLet's look at a simulation.\nLet's suggest a $10K investment in KEY, with dividends reinvested and dividend growth of 7.5% per annum.\nIn year 10, you'd expect $1,004 of income, or 10% of your original investment, which is our threshold for a \"great\" income opportunity.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe.\nIn our mind there is no way that KEY doesn't grow at this rate, which would suggest hitting its pre 2008 dividend in 10 years.\nAs such we believe KEY to be a great pick for income investors. As KEY's dividend growth is on the back of growth in earnings and tangible book value per share, there is no doubt in our mind that sooner or later, the price will catch up with the higher income. The fed stress tests might be the catalyst banks need to move higher.\nIn the meantime get paid to wait.\nChevron (CVX)\nChevron is another stock which is hovering just below our target \"Buy Below\" price.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe.\nWe're surprised that the oil trade is taking so long to play out. In late 2015, early 2016, the recovery to historically normal yields was a lot faster.\nYet CVX still yields 5%, after proving its resilience, superior balance sheet and increasing the dividend by 4% this year, sustaining their history of higher dividends every year for the past three decades.\nConsider the following slide from their latestearnings call:\nSource: Earnings Call.\nAt $40 brent, the dividend is covered with a little extra debt. As the energy major with the best balance sheet, it can afford this. At $60 brent, there would be excess cash above $25bn, or enough to fund the dividend for two and a half years.\nBrent is currently above $70. The longer it stays above that level, the higher the likelihood that CVX will actually have the excess cash suggested in the latter scenario.\nBack in August last year we suggested that you'll belaughing your wayto the bank with CVX's 6% yield.\nSince then, CVX has marginally beaten the S&P 500, but is far from over.\nIn the past 10 years CVX has yielded a median 3.86%. Its forward outlook is arguably better now than it was in much of the past decade, which had the energy market dealing with endemic oversupply. With underinvestment, the opposite is likely to be true in upcoming years.\nIf anything CVX should gravitate back towards its median yield which suggests further upside of 20%, much of which we expect will be realized in the latter half of 2021.\nIf you simulate a $10K investment in CVX assuming a 5% yield and 4% dividend growth, and reinvest dividends, then in year 10 you'd expect $1,154 in dividends of which $409 is expected to come from dividend reinvestments.\nThis equates to 11.54% of the initial investment, making CVX also an excellent income opportunity at current prices.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe.\nConclusion\nAs long term dividend investors, we're always eager to get top companies at great valuations. The fed meeting changed nothing to the reopening trade. If anything it gave them a warning that even the slightest hint of a rate increase would be interpreted as hawkish, which will likely have the consequence of them acting later than they should, which exacerbates the likelihood of the value trade continuing.\nDon't confuse the market taking a breather with the end of the trade.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":128127924,"gmtCreate":1624507306368,"gmtModify":1624507306368,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"都不买","listText":"都不买","text":"都不买","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128127924","repostId":"2145092071","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":107763938,"gmtCreate":1620540221424,"gmtModify":1620540221424,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"因为他还没死啊","listText":"因为他还没死啊","text":"因为他还没死啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107763938","repostId":"1149370314","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":329557535,"gmtCreate":1615262322927,"gmtModify":1703486427117,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AER\">$AerCap Holdings N.V.(AER)$</a>行吧，从财务数据上来说，这个企业还很便宜","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AER\">$AerCap Holdings N.V.(AER)$</a>行吧，从财务数据上来说，这个企业还很便宜","text":"$AerCap Holdings N.V.(AER)$行吧，从财务数据上来说，这个企业还很便宜","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5389818ce54892a631d7ebb0dec5336","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329557535","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"63189322384840","authorId":"63189322384840","name":"lunix","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"飞机租赁业以自己的特殊性，资产比较重，现金流不好就完蛋","text":"飞机租赁业以自己的特殊性，资产比较重，现金流不好就完蛋","html":"飞机租赁业以自己的特殊性，资产比较重，现金流不好就完蛋"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":367713884,"gmtCreate":1614966976348,"gmtModify":1703483812292,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>狡兔三窟终无路，不知道还会不会有反弹，但价值总是要回归的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>狡兔三窟终无路，不知道还会不会有反弹，但价值总是要回归的","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$狡兔三窟终无路，不知道还会不会有反弹，但价值总是要回归的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367713884","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":367330819,"gmtCreate":1614908873731,"gmtModify":1703482821107,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>就这才哪到哪，不至于神经这么脆弱吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>就这才哪到哪，不至于神经这么脆弱吧","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$就这才哪到哪，不至于神经这么脆弱吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367330819","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363986246,"gmtCreate":1614091178485,"gmtModify":1614091178485,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"指的是票面价值吧","listText":"指的是票面价值吧","text":"指的是票面价值吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363986246","repostId":"363904238","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":363904238,"gmtCreate":1614089119324,"gmtModify":1614089119324,"author":{"id":"3474166505237850","authorId":"3474166505237850","name":"FeiMo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31497d36b15c0240ecda88cbe05f0691","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV.U\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV.U)$</a> 　“Churchill Capital&nbsp;Corp IV总投资约46亿美元，包括以每股15美元价格计算的25亿美元完全承诺的私人投资公共股本。根据拟定的协议，Lucid Motors现有投资者都不会出售股票，并对他们所持有的股票实行6个月的锁定期。所有收益将作为公司执行其战略和运营计划的增长资本。 ”请教下上面新闻的含义。“每股15美元”的含义是上市发行时的股价吗？","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV.U\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV.U)$</a> 　“Churchill Capital&nbsp;Corp IV总投资约46亿美元，包括以每股15美元价格计算的25亿美元完全承诺的私人投资公共股本。根据拟定的协议，Lucid Motors现有投资者都不会出售股票，并对他们所持有的股票实行6个月的锁定期。所有收益将作为公司执行其战略和运营计划的增长资本。 ”请教下上面新闻的含义。“每股15美元”的含义是上市发行时的股价吗？","text":"$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV.U)$ 　“Churchill Capital Corp IV总投资约46亿美元，包括以每股15美元价格计算的25亿美元完全承诺的私人投资公共股本。根据拟定的协议，Lucid Motors现有投资者都不会出售股票，并对他们所持有的股票实行6个月的锁定期。所有收益将作为公司执行其战略和运营计划的增长资本。 ”请教下上面新闻的含义。“每股15美元”的含义是上市发行时的股价吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363904238","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":384274816,"gmtCreate":1613659352935,"gmtModify":1613659352935,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NC\">$NACCO Industries Inc Cl A(NC)$</a>重仓纳科公司，但它的金字塔式的控股结构仍令我存疑","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NC\">$NACCO Industries Inc Cl A(NC)$</a>重仓纳科公司，但它的金字塔式的控股结构仍令我存疑","text":"$NACCO Industries Inc Cl A(NC)$重仓纳科公司，但它的金字塔式的控股结构仍令我存疑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384274816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314571095,"gmtCreate":1612364535217,"gmtModify":1703760933556,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>不知道还会不会反弹，但狡兔三窟终无路，华尔街从没有新鲜事","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>不知道还会不会反弹，但狡兔三窟终无路，华尔街从没有新鲜事","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$不知道还会不会反弹，但狡兔三窟终无路，华尔街从没有新鲜事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314571095","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":961,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":394347693,"gmtCreate":1607955257912,"gmtModify":1703850285235,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"就算不是骗局，根据已公布的基于美国会计准则的财务数据来推算，每股也就值个几块钱","listText":"就算不是骗局，根据已公布的基于美国会计准则的财务数据来推算，每股也就值个几块钱","text":"就算不是骗局，根据已公布的基于美国会计准则的财务数据来推算，每股也就值个几块钱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/394347693","repostId":"1104367018","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1104367018","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1607954708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104367018?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-14 22:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"浑水公司：跟谁学就是一个骗局，股价会跌至个位数","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104367018","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"今年以来，跟谁学受到空头机构的“密集轰炸”。","content":"<p>12月14日消息，知名做空机构浑水公司最新表示：<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>就是一个骗局。一旦审计失败，股价就会跌至个位数</b>。</p><p>跟谁学盘前下挫，现跌1.75%。</p><p>今年以来，跟谁学受到空头机构的“密集轰炸”，包括灰熊研究、香橼资本、天蝎创投，乃至大名鼎鼎的浑水都先后发布做空报告，总数达十余份，指责跟谁学存在财务表现数据造假，注册用户造假，流量刷单，乃至证券欺诈等问题，一时间跟谁学被坊间称作是被做空最多的中概股。虽然这些报告确实造成了跟谁学行情的剧烈波动，但是回望全年，该股依然涨幅惊人。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ebbfbd674b67aacd6004c666c704886\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><b>复盘第三季度财报</b></p><p>11月20日，跟谁学发布第三季度财报称，公司当季通用会计准则（GAAP）每股ADR（美国存托凭证）亏损0.57美元，净营收19.66亿元人民币，约合2.9亿美元，同比增长253%，延续了第二季度的强势。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e01126a6408e1b614176a925d043ec0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"576\"></p><p>截至季度结束，跟谁学付费入学学生为125.6万人，同比增长134%，颇为强劲。在过去一年时间当中，各种疫情相关的趋势加速了线上学习需求的增长速度，使得行业迅速迎来了繁荣。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74a6be98605265e990c4d5da6cf6a6df\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\"></p><p>然而，这种迅猛的增长也让跟谁学遇到了强劲的挑战，为了持续提供和过去同等品质的教育服务，他们的相关支出，从师资到辅导材料都大幅度增长。唯一可以庆幸的是，这些支出220%的同比增长速度还低于净所得的增速，使得毛利润率能够实现从71.9%到74.4%的同比增长。</p><p>更加让人担心的是运营支出同比增幅达到了496%，远超过营收，导致运营亏损巨大。管理层宣称，这与销售支出，比如营销费用和销售团队的报酬增长有关。可是，换个视角来看，这其实是在竞争高度激烈的中国线上教育市场上，客户获取成本在增高。正是因为同样的原因，他们的研发支出也攀升了286%。当季调整后运营亏损为0.21亿元人民币，约合1.46亿美元，超过前一季度的1.07亿元人民币，而去年第三季度，他们一度还实现了700万人民币的盈利。</p><p><b>企业财测与市场预期</b></p><p>目前，跟谁学管理层的第四季度营收目标是在20.76亿至21.16亿元人民币之间，意味着将比2019年同期增长122%至126%。考虑到前九个月的表现，以及当下的货币汇率，华尔街认为该公司全年营收将为10.1亿美元的普遍预期与公司自己的财测是大致相符的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1e48eddcb2ffd3f6cefa96c7bbff66d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\"></p><p>展望来年，市场目前预计该公司营收2021年将增长77%，之后的2022年增长49%。这一切有一个重大的前提，这就是今年入学的新生不流失，同时明年他们还将获取新的客户。在每股盈利方面，跟谁学明年预计将继续亏损，只是具体幅度从今年的0.59美元一路缩窄至2022年的0.30美元。</p><p><b>分析与评论</b></p><p>虽然过去一年时间当中，跟谁学股价涨幅可观，但是近几个月以来，波动也极为剧烈，较之8月的141美元下得55%以上，哪怕较之10月的120美元也低了46%。换言之，虽然营收增长令人印象深刻，但是盈利，乃至于调整后运营利润率等其实都令人失望，该公司并未证明自己具备将强势运营环境转化为运营利润的能力。</p><p>长期而言，中国市场的竞争将持续激烈，而管理层想要留住优秀的师资人才，就必须付出非常可观的代价。如果他们不能用收入挽留住有限的人才，则服务品质就会下滑。虽然何一家企业而言，高增长都会伴随着挑战，但是当一家企业需要面对超过130万学生时，要保证所有人都满意，这挑战就更为巨大。在学生流失率较高的情况下，他们就必须在竞争方面更多付出，而这必然会让利润率受到更大的压迫。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d2270f719183fc42b53ab41eb017c4a\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p>中国线上教育市场今年的一个新势头是，一些新兴企业正在试图以价格战撬开市场大门。诚然，2020年肯定是一个线上教育的大年，但是具体分析，跟谁学现在其实已经摘掉了所有最低的果子，而到了明年，伴随全球疫情退却，他们想要达成现在这样的增长预期其实已经很难了。</p><p>估值方面，该股价格目前相当于过去一年销售额的18.8倍，2020年全年营收普遍预期的14.3倍，2021年普遍预期的8.1倍。无论怎么看，这增长溢价其实都已经贵过了大多数公司。跟谁学的关键之一就在于，虽然该公司是围绕一个科技平台建立起来的，但是他们需要给老师发工资，定期展开宣传活动来推动用户群增长，这也就意味着，它实质上带有鲜明的劳动力密集型和资本密集型色彩。可是，跟谁学的估值却已经可以和那些纯粹科技公司，或者是软件app公司等量齐观了，尽管后者显然更容易实现规模效应。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14bf13ffc922f55d858586c6c304ed65\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"368\"></p><p>现在，中国线上教育市场的大玩家远不止跟谁学一家，比如最大上市公司好未市值420亿美元，远超跟谁学的150亿美元。虽然好未来今年的增速没有跟谁学这么火爆，但是该公司已经实现了盈利和正向自由现金流。还有产品和服务更广泛的新东方，也实现了盈利。此外，还有新东方在线、海亮教育等也同样是疫情的重大获益者。虽然这些玩家都专注于市场的不同领域，业务模式也不尽相同，但是中国市场竞争激烈的局面无可改变，而这就可能会转化为价格压力，让跟谁学未来增长受限。</p><p><b>最终结论</b></p><p>当前价位意味着市场对于跟谁学的增长前景判断过于乐观，而实际上下跌风险巨大。具体而言，该公司和股票的麻烦在于：</p><p>——虽然销售额和入学增长势头旺盛，但是运营亏损却在扩大。</p><p>——为支持增长所负担的成本压力巨大，包括教师薪酬、营销支出等，这将严重限制盈利潜力。</p><p>——虽然今年的表现在疫情推动下呈现强势，但是到2021年，伴随疫情结束，局面就可能反转过来。</p><p>——强势增长之下，学生数以百万计，教师也成千上万，这就使得品控和消费者满意度的管理变得极为困难。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becc04985ddbb33452465c5ca9a971c4\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"683\"></p><p>——中国线上教育市场竞争极端激烈，若干家大玩家争夺相同的目标客户群，这就意味着价格将背负长期压力。</p><p>——在本年度现金流为负数，且2022年预计将继续亏损的情况下，跟谁学股票的市销率却很高，意味着价格已经达到了极端水平。</p><p>很可能，从下一个季度往后，市场将被迫不断调降跟谁学的各种长期增长预期，给股价造成越来越大的表现低于水准的压力。一旦他们财务前景恶化的势头变得明显，市场情绪也将急转直下，使得股价遭受到新一轮的打压。</p><p>如果跟谁学不希望看到这一幕发生，那么他们就必须能够继续维持当下高企的成长动能，同时还让市场看到运营利润改善的迹象。在这方面，投资者可以关注毛利润率和运营支出等指标，以确定是否能够找到未来盈利潜力的积极信号。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>浑水公司：跟谁学就是一个骗局，股价会跌至个位数</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n浑水公司：跟谁学就是一个骗局，股价会跌至个位数\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-12-14 22:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>12月14日消息，知名做空机构浑水公司最新表示：<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>就是一个骗局。一旦审计失败，股价就会跌至个位数</b>。</p><p>跟谁学盘前下挫，现跌1.75%。</p><p>今年以来，跟谁学受到空头机构的“密集轰炸”，包括灰熊研究、香橼资本、天蝎创投，乃至大名鼎鼎的浑水都先后发布做空报告，总数达十余份，指责跟谁学存在财务表现数据造假，注册用户造假，流量刷单，乃至证券欺诈等问题，一时间跟谁学被坊间称作是被做空最多的中概股。虽然这些报告确实造成了跟谁学行情的剧烈波动，但是回望全年，该股依然涨幅惊人。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ebbfbd674b67aacd6004c666c704886\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><b>复盘第三季度财报</b></p><p>11月20日，跟谁学发布第三季度财报称，公司当季通用会计准则（GAAP）每股ADR（美国存托凭证）亏损0.57美元，净营收19.66亿元人民币，约合2.9亿美元，同比增长253%，延续了第二季度的强势。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e01126a6408e1b614176a925d043ec0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"576\"></p><p>截至季度结束，跟谁学付费入学学生为125.6万人，同比增长134%，颇为强劲。在过去一年时间当中，各种疫情相关的趋势加速了线上学习需求的增长速度，使得行业迅速迎来了繁荣。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74a6be98605265e990c4d5da6cf6a6df\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\"></p><p>然而，这种迅猛的增长也让跟谁学遇到了强劲的挑战，为了持续提供和过去同等品质的教育服务，他们的相关支出，从师资到辅导材料都大幅度增长。唯一可以庆幸的是，这些支出220%的同比增长速度还低于净所得的增速，使得毛利润率能够实现从71.9%到74.4%的同比增长。</p><p>更加让人担心的是运营支出同比增幅达到了496%，远超过营收，导致运营亏损巨大。管理层宣称，这与销售支出，比如营销费用和销售团队的报酬增长有关。可是，换个视角来看，这其实是在竞争高度激烈的中国线上教育市场上，客户获取成本在增高。正是因为同样的原因，他们的研发支出也攀升了286%。当季调整后运营亏损为0.21亿元人民币，约合1.46亿美元，超过前一季度的1.07亿元人民币，而去年第三季度，他们一度还实现了700万人民币的盈利。</p><p><b>企业财测与市场预期</b></p><p>目前，跟谁学管理层的第四季度营收目标是在20.76亿至21.16亿元人民币之间，意味着将比2019年同期增长122%至126%。考虑到前九个月的表现，以及当下的货币汇率，华尔街认为该公司全年营收将为10.1亿美元的普遍预期与公司自己的财测是大致相符的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1e48eddcb2ffd3f6cefa96c7bbff66d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\"></p><p>展望来年，市场目前预计该公司营收2021年将增长77%，之后的2022年增长49%。这一切有一个重大的前提，这就是今年入学的新生不流失，同时明年他们还将获取新的客户。在每股盈利方面，跟谁学明年预计将继续亏损，只是具体幅度从今年的0.59美元一路缩窄至2022年的0.30美元。</p><p><b>分析与评论</b></p><p>虽然过去一年时间当中，跟谁学股价涨幅可观，但是近几个月以来，波动也极为剧烈，较之8月的141美元下得55%以上，哪怕较之10月的120美元也低了46%。换言之，虽然营收增长令人印象深刻，但是盈利，乃至于调整后运营利润率等其实都令人失望，该公司并未证明自己具备将强势运营环境转化为运营利润的能力。</p><p>长期而言，中国市场的竞争将持续激烈，而管理层想要留住优秀的师资人才，就必须付出非常可观的代价。如果他们不能用收入挽留住有限的人才，则服务品质就会下滑。虽然何一家企业而言，高增长都会伴随着挑战，但是当一家企业需要面对超过130万学生时，要保证所有人都满意，这挑战就更为巨大。在学生流失率较高的情况下，他们就必须在竞争方面更多付出，而这必然会让利润率受到更大的压迫。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d2270f719183fc42b53ab41eb017c4a\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p>中国线上教育市场今年的一个新势头是，一些新兴企业正在试图以价格战撬开市场大门。诚然，2020年肯定是一个线上教育的大年，但是具体分析，跟谁学现在其实已经摘掉了所有最低的果子，而到了明年，伴随全球疫情退却，他们想要达成现在这样的增长预期其实已经很难了。</p><p>估值方面，该股价格目前相当于过去一年销售额的18.8倍，2020年全年营收普遍预期的14.3倍，2021年普遍预期的8.1倍。无论怎么看，这增长溢价其实都已经贵过了大多数公司。跟谁学的关键之一就在于，虽然该公司是围绕一个科技平台建立起来的，但是他们需要给老师发工资，定期展开宣传活动来推动用户群增长，这也就意味着，它实质上带有鲜明的劳动力密集型和资本密集型色彩。可是，跟谁学的估值却已经可以和那些纯粹科技公司，或者是软件app公司等量齐观了，尽管后者显然更容易实现规模效应。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14bf13ffc922f55d858586c6c304ed65\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"368\"></p><p>现在，中国线上教育市场的大玩家远不止跟谁学一家，比如最大上市公司好未市值420亿美元，远超跟谁学的150亿美元。虽然好未来今年的增速没有跟谁学这么火爆，但是该公司已经实现了盈利和正向自由现金流。还有产品和服务更广泛的新东方，也实现了盈利。此外，还有新东方在线、海亮教育等也同样是疫情的重大获益者。虽然这些玩家都专注于市场的不同领域，业务模式也不尽相同，但是中国市场竞争激烈的局面无可改变，而这就可能会转化为价格压力，让跟谁学未来增长受限。</p><p><b>最终结论</b></p><p>当前价位意味着市场对于跟谁学的增长前景判断过于乐观，而实际上下跌风险巨大。具体而言，该公司和股票的麻烦在于：</p><p>——虽然销售额和入学增长势头旺盛，但是运营亏损却在扩大。</p><p>——为支持增长所负担的成本压力巨大，包括教师薪酬、营销支出等，这将严重限制盈利潜力。</p><p>——虽然今年的表现在疫情推动下呈现强势，但是到2021年，伴随疫情结束，局面就可能反转过来。</p><p>——强势增长之下，学生数以百万计，教师也成千上万，这就使得品控和消费者满意度的管理变得极为困难。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becc04985ddbb33452465c5ca9a971c4\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"683\"></p><p>——中国线上教育市场竞争极端激烈，若干家大玩家争夺相同的目标客户群，这就意味着价格将背负长期压力。</p><p>——在本年度现金流为负数，且2022年预计将继续亏损的情况下，跟谁学股票的市销率却很高，意味着价格已经达到了极端水平。</p><p>很可能，从下一个季度往后，市场将被迫不断调降跟谁学的各种长期增长预期，给股价造成越来越大的表现低于水准的压力。一旦他们财务前景恶化的势头变得明显，市场情绪也将急转直下，使得股价遭受到新一轮的打压。</p><p>如果跟谁学不希望看到这一幕发生，那么他们就必须能够继续维持当下高企的成长动能，同时还让市场看到运营利润改善的迹象。在这方面，投资者可以关注毛利润率和运营支出等指标，以确定是否能够找到未来盈利潜力的积极信号。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f49cfbbad938b58f9d764c4f5e672e9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104367018","content_text":"12月14日消息，知名做空机构浑水公司最新表示：跟谁学就是一个骗局。一旦审计失败，股价就会跌至个位数。跟谁学盘前下挫，现跌1.75%。今年以来，跟谁学受到空头机构的“密集轰炸”，包括灰熊研究、香橼资本、天蝎创投，乃至大名鼎鼎的浑水都先后发布做空报告，总数达十余份，指责跟谁学存在财务表现数据造假，注册用户造假，流量刷单，乃至证券欺诈等问题，一时间跟谁学被坊间称作是被做空最多的中概股。虽然这些报告确实造成了跟谁学行情的剧烈波动，但是回望全年，该股依然涨幅惊人。复盘第三季度财报11月20日，跟谁学发布第三季度财报称，公司当季通用会计准则（GAAP）每股ADR（美国存托凭证）亏损0.57美元，净营收19.66亿元人民币，约合2.9亿美元，同比增长253%，延续了第二季度的强势。截至季度结束，跟谁学付费入学学生为125.6万人，同比增长134%，颇为强劲。在过去一年时间当中，各种疫情相关的趋势加速了线上学习需求的增长速度，使得行业迅速迎来了繁荣。然而，这种迅猛的增长也让跟谁学遇到了强劲的挑战，为了持续提供和过去同等品质的教育服务，他们的相关支出，从师资到辅导材料都大幅度增长。唯一可以庆幸的是，这些支出220%的同比增长速度还低于净所得的增速，使得毛利润率能够实现从71.9%到74.4%的同比增长。更加让人担心的是运营支出同比增幅达到了496%，远超过营收，导致运营亏损巨大。管理层宣称，这与销售支出，比如营销费用和销售团队的报酬增长有关。可是，换个视角来看，这其实是在竞争高度激烈的中国线上教育市场上，客户获取成本在增高。正是因为同样的原因，他们的研发支出也攀升了286%。当季调整后运营亏损为0.21亿元人民币，约合1.46亿美元，超过前一季度的1.07亿元人民币，而去年第三季度，他们一度还实现了700万人民币的盈利。企业财测与市场预期目前，跟谁学管理层的第四季度营收目标是在20.76亿至21.16亿元人民币之间，意味着将比2019年同期增长122%至126%。考虑到前九个月的表现，以及当下的货币汇率，华尔街认为该公司全年营收将为10.1亿美元的普遍预期与公司自己的财测是大致相符的。展望来年，市场目前预计该公司营收2021年将增长77%，之后的2022年增长49%。这一切有一个重大的前提，这就是今年入学的新生不流失，同时明年他们还将获取新的客户。在每股盈利方面，跟谁学明年预计将继续亏损，只是具体幅度从今年的0.59美元一路缩窄至2022年的0.30美元。分析与评论虽然过去一年时间当中，跟谁学股价涨幅可观，但是近几个月以来，波动也极为剧烈，较之8月的141美元下得55%以上，哪怕较之10月的120美元也低了46%。换言之，虽然营收增长令人印象深刻，但是盈利，乃至于调整后运营利润率等其实都令人失望，该公司并未证明自己具备将强势运营环境转化为运营利润的能力。长期而言，中国市场的竞争将持续激烈，而管理层想要留住优秀的师资人才，就必须付出非常可观的代价。如果他们不能用收入挽留住有限的人才，则服务品质就会下滑。虽然何一家企业而言，高增长都会伴随着挑战，但是当一家企业需要面对超过130万学生时，要保证所有人都满意，这挑战就更为巨大。在学生流失率较高的情况下，他们就必须在竞争方面更多付出，而这必然会让利润率受到更大的压迫。中国线上教育市场今年的一个新势头是，一些新兴企业正在试图以价格战撬开市场大门。诚然，2020年肯定是一个线上教育的大年，但是具体分析，跟谁学现在其实已经摘掉了所有最低的果子，而到了明年，伴随全球疫情退却，他们想要达成现在这样的增长预期其实已经很难了。估值方面，该股价格目前相当于过去一年销售额的18.8倍，2020年全年营收普遍预期的14.3倍，2021年普遍预期的8.1倍。无论怎么看，这增长溢价其实都已经贵过了大多数公司。跟谁学的关键之一就在于，虽然该公司是围绕一个科技平台建立起来的，但是他们需要给老师发工资，定期展开宣传活动来推动用户群增长，这也就意味着，它实质上带有鲜明的劳动力密集型和资本密集型色彩。可是，跟谁学的估值却已经可以和那些纯粹科技公司，或者是软件app公司等量齐观了，尽管后者显然更容易实现规模效应。现在，中国线上教育市场的大玩家远不止跟谁学一家，比如最大上市公司好未市值420亿美元，远超跟谁学的150亿美元。虽然好未来今年的增速没有跟谁学这么火爆，但是该公司已经实现了盈利和正向自由现金流。还有产品和服务更广泛的新东方，也实现了盈利。此外，还有新东方在线、海亮教育等也同样是疫情的重大获益者。虽然这些玩家都专注于市场的不同领域，业务模式也不尽相同，但是中国市场竞争激烈的局面无可改变，而这就可能会转化为价格压力，让跟谁学未来增长受限。最终结论当前价位意味着市场对于跟谁学的增长前景判断过于乐观，而实际上下跌风险巨大。具体而言，该公司和股票的麻烦在于：——虽然销售额和入学增长势头旺盛，但是运营亏损却在扩大。——为支持增长所负担的成本压力巨大，包括教师薪酬、营销支出等，这将严重限制盈利潜力。——虽然今年的表现在疫情推动下呈现强势，但是到2021年，伴随疫情结束，局面就可能反转过来。——强势增长之下，学生数以百万计，教师也成千上万，这就使得品控和消费者满意度的管理变得极为困难。——中国线上教育市场竞争极端激烈，若干家大玩家争夺相同的目标客户群，这就意味着价格将背负长期压力。——在本年度现金流为负数，且2022年预计将继续亏损的情况下，跟谁学股票的市销率却很高，意味着价格已经达到了极端水平。很可能，从下一个季度往后，市场将被迫不断调降跟谁学的各种长期增长预期，给股价造成越来越大的表现低于水准的压力。一旦他们财务前景恶化的势头变得明显，市场情绪也将急转直下，使得股价遭受到新一轮的打压。如果跟谁学不希望看到这一幕发生，那么他们就必须能够继续维持当下高企的成长动能，同时还让市场看到运营利润改善的迹象。在这方面，投资者可以关注毛利润率和运营支出等指标，以确定是否能够找到未来盈利潜力的积极信号。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3474501447141386","authorId":"3474501447141386","name":"主宰金钱","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"股价貌似有投资投资者的美元说了算","text":"股价貌似有投资投资者的美元说了算","html":"股价貌似有投资投资者的美元说了算"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395143847,"gmtCreate":1607611314989,"gmtModify":1703849044937,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这不是在说废话吗","listText":"这不是在说废话吗","text":"这不是在说废话吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395143847","repostId":"1127349447","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1127349447","pubTimestamp":1607523512,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127349447?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-09 22:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"只值90美元？摩根大通称特斯拉被严重高估，建议低配 ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127349447","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根大通认为，无论从何种估值角度，特斯拉目前的股价都严重高估。其给予特斯拉低配评级，目标价格90美元，这较公司目前649美元的市场价格有86%的下跌空间。\n\n摩根大通表示，目前基本上所有的估值指标都暗","content":"<p>摩根大通认为，无论从何种估值角度，特斯拉目前的股价都严重高估。其给予特斯拉低配评级，目标价格90美元，这较公司目前649美元的市场价格有86%的下跌空间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f15b0332b465144023e424d423cc664\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"409\"></p>\n<p>摩根大通表示，目前基本上所有的估值指标都暗示特斯拉被严重高估：按照市场对于公司未来12个月盈利预期计算，<b>公司目前市盈率高达175x</b>，而公司所处汽车行业中，宝马、戴姆勒和丰田等行业龙头公司的估值仅为14x、10x和16x。</p>\n<p>自2018年12月8日以来，特斯拉的股价已经上涨了808%，华尔街分析师对于公司的目标价格相应的也增长了451%，但与此同时，分析师普遍下调了对于公司2020—2024年的盈利预期。<b>这种盈利与股价的巨大差距暗示特斯拉本轮的上涨是由某些基本面之外的因素（投机？）所驱动。</b></p>\n<p>摩根大通指出，特斯拉今年业绩超预期很大程度上得益于公司环保积分的销售，<b>但这与电动车的长期销售驱动因素无关</b>：多个国家已暗示将在2035年禁售新的内燃动力汽车，届时环比积分销售对车企影响将明显减弱（传统车企在这之前就必须完成转型）。</p>\n<p>在基本面估值上，特斯拉目前的市值为6160亿美元，几乎是丰田和大众3190亿美元总市值的两倍(193%)。</p>\n<p>作为全球汽车巨头，丰田和大众2019年全年汽车销量达到销售2180万辆车辆，同时产生402亿美元的税前利润，这与特斯拉40万的电动车年产量和8亿美元的税前利润（包括大量补贴）有着天壤之别。</p>\n<p>摩根大通指出，目前特斯拉市价背后所反映的乐观情绪同样让不安。市场对于特斯拉总销量接近丰田和大众的总和，利润率却能达到后者2倍的未来假设过于乐观，<b>这显然忽视了公司所面临的具体执行风险和新进入者的竞争压力</b>。除非公司在其他多个领域（诸如太阳能、火箭等）出现重大突破，目前公司的高估值显然不可持续。</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n只值90美元？摩根大通称特斯拉被严重高估，建议低配 \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-09 22:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3612991><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根大通认为，无论从何种估值角度，特斯拉目前的股价都严重高估。其给予特斯拉低配评级，目标价格90美元，这较公司目前649美元的市场价格有86%的下跌空间。\n\n摩根大通表示，目前基本上所有的估值指标都暗示特斯拉被严重高估：按照市场对于公司未来12个月盈利预期计算，公司目前市盈率高达175x，而公司所处汽车行业中，宝马、戴姆勒和丰田等行业龙头公司的估值仅为14x、10x和16x。\n自2018年12月8...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3612991\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf056c93b86b4b78405c574b04f01c45","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3612991","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1127349447","content_text":"摩根大通认为，无论从何种估值角度，特斯拉目前的股价都严重高估。其给予特斯拉低配评级，目标价格90美元，这较公司目前649美元的市场价格有86%的下跌空间。\n\n摩根大通表示，目前基本上所有的估值指标都暗示特斯拉被严重高估：按照市场对于公司未来12个月盈利预期计算，公司目前市盈率高达175x，而公司所处汽车行业中，宝马、戴姆勒和丰田等行业龙头公司的估值仅为14x、10x和16x。\n自2018年12月8日以来，特斯拉的股价已经上涨了808%，华尔街分析师对于公司的目标价格相应的也增长了451%，但与此同时，分析师普遍下调了对于公司2020—2024年的盈利预期。这种盈利与股价的巨大差距暗示特斯拉本轮的上涨是由某些基本面之外的因素（投机？）所驱动。\n摩根大通指出，特斯拉今年业绩超预期很大程度上得益于公司环保积分的销售，但这与电动车的长期销售驱动因素无关：多个国家已暗示将在2035年禁售新的内燃动力汽车，届时环比积分销售对车企影响将明显减弱（传统车企在这之前就必须完成转型）。\n在基本面估值上，特斯拉目前的市值为6160亿美元，几乎是丰田和大众3190亿美元总市值的两倍(193%)。\n作为全球汽车巨头，丰田和大众2019年全年汽车销量达到销售2180万辆车辆，同时产生402亿美元的税前利润，这与特斯拉40万的电动车年产量和8亿美元的税前利润（包括大量补贴）有着天壤之别。\n摩根大通指出，目前特斯拉市价背后所反映的乐观情绪同样让不安。市场对于特斯拉总销量接近丰田和大众的总和，利润率却能达到后者2倍的未来假设过于乐观，这显然忽视了公司所面临的具体执行风险和新进入者的竞争压力。除非公司在其他多个领域（诸如太阳能、火箭等）出现重大突破，目前公司的高估值显然不可持续。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396836483,"gmtCreate":1607085351942,"gmtModify":1703846331208,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">$贵州茅台(600519)$</a>哈哈","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">$贵州茅台(600519)$</a>哈哈","text":"$贵州茅台(600519)$哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/970996123","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":978961150,"gmtCreate":1599108069770,"gmtModify":1704221529538,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FINV\">$信也科技(FINV)$</a>对于信也集团的财务状况我有一点疑问，遍查它的财报，对于19年经营活动现金流供应量和利润的差值的解释也只有为信贷计提质量保证这一段，但提供的数据也和老虎上的数据有很明显的出入","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FINV\">$信也科技(FINV)$</a>对于信也集团的财务状况我有一点疑问，遍查它的财报，对于19年经营活动现金流供应量和利润的差值的解释也只有为信贷计提质量保证这一段，但提供的数据也和老虎上的数据有很明显的出入","text":"$信也科技(FINV)$对于信也集团的财务状况我有一点疑问，遍查它的财报，对于19年经营活动现金流供应量和利润的差值的解释也只有为信贷计提质量保证这一段，但提供的数据也和老虎上的数据有很明显的出入","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/978961150","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3526101414944717","authorId":"3526101414944717","name":"soralaro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d14b98d066449c9ac142ea35fbf8eec","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"信也的利润资金是充裕的，从分红和回购股票，直接清退p2p投资人可以看出。最近有个15%的民间利率上限，虽然从条文是看不约束持牌的金融机构，但是从地方法院的判决案例分析还是参照了民间最高利率上限。","text":"信也的利润资金是充裕的，从分红和回购股票，直接清退p2p投资人可以看出。最近有个15%的民间利率上限，虽然从条文是看不约束持牌的金融机构，但是从地方法院的判决案例分析还是参照了民间最高利率上限。","html":"信也的利润资金是充裕的，从分红和回购股票，直接清退p2p投资人可以看出。最近有个15%的民间利率上限，虽然从条文是看不约束持牌的金融机构，但是从地方法院的判决案例分析还是参照了民间最高利率上限。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":957073237,"gmtCreate":1593133734229,"gmtModify":1704201270588,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/YMmain\">$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$ &nbsp;</a>请问各位老虎买的股票分红大概几天能到账啊[白眼]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/YMmain\">$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$ &nbsp;</a>请问各位老虎买的股票分红大概几天能到账啊[白眼]&nbsp;","text":"$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$ 请问各位老虎买的股票分红大概几天能到账啊[白眼]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/957073237","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3472509891364152","authorId":"3472509891364152","name":"真的英雄","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/840859d8f7d3c5c63498b7f330b98705","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"好几天的，还要扣税，等吧","text":"好几天的，还要扣税，等吧","html":"好几天的，还要扣税，等吧"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":394347693,"gmtCreate":1607955257912,"gmtModify":1703850285235,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"就算不是骗局，根据已公布的基于美国会计准则的财务数据来推算，每股也就值个几块钱","listText":"就算不是骗局，根据已公布的基于美国会计准则的财务数据来推算，每股也就值个几块钱","text":"就算不是骗局，根据已公布的基于美国会计准则的财务数据来推算，每股也就值个几块钱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/394347693","repostId":"1104367018","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1104367018","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1607954708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104367018?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-14 22:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"浑水公司：跟谁学就是一个骗局，股价会跌至个位数","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104367018","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"今年以来，跟谁学受到空头机构的“密集轰炸”。","content":"<p>12月14日消息，知名做空机构浑水公司最新表示：<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>就是一个骗局。一旦审计失败，股价就会跌至个位数</b>。</p><p>跟谁学盘前下挫，现跌1.75%。</p><p>今年以来，跟谁学受到空头机构的“密集轰炸”，包括灰熊研究、香橼资本、天蝎创投，乃至大名鼎鼎的浑水都先后发布做空报告，总数达十余份，指责跟谁学存在财务表现数据造假，注册用户造假，流量刷单，乃至证券欺诈等问题，一时间跟谁学被坊间称作是被做空最多的中概股。虽然这些报告确实造成了跟谁学行情的剧烈波动，但是回望全年，该股依然涨幅惊人。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ebbfbd674b67aacd6004c666c704886\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><b>复盘第三季度财报</b></p><p>11月20日，跟谁学发布第三季度财报称，公司当季通用会计准则（GAAP）每股ADR（美国存托凭证）亏损0.57美元，净营收19.66亿元人民币，约合2.9亿美元，同比增长253%，延续了第二季度的强势。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e01126a6408e1b614176a925d043ec0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"576\"></p><p>截至季度结束，跟谁学付费入学学生为125.6万人，同比增长134%，颇为强劲。在过去一年时间当中，各种疫情相关的趋势加速了线上学习需求的增长速度，使得行业迅速迎来了繁荣。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74a6be98605265e990c4d5da6cf6a6df\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\"></p><p>然而，这种迅猛的增长也让跟谁学遇到了强劲的挑战，为了持续提供和过去同等品质的教育服务，他们的相关支出，从师资到辅导材料都大幅度增长。唯一可以庆幸的是，这些支出220%的同比增长速度还低于净所得的增速，使得毛利润率能够实现从71.9%到74.4%的同比增长。</p><p>更加让人担心的是运营支出同比增幅达到了496%，远超过营收，导致运营亏损巨大。管理层宣称，这与销售支出，比如营销费用和销售团队的报酬增长有关。可是，换个视角来看，这其实是在竞争高度激烈的中国线上教育市场上，客户获取成本在增高。正是因为同样的原因，他们的研发支出也攀升了286%。当季调整后运营亏损为0.21亿元人民币，约合1.46亿美元，超过前一季度的1.07亿元人民币，而去年第三季度，他们一度还实现了700万人民币的盈利。</p><p><b>企业财测与市场预期</b></p><p>目前，跟谁学管理层的第四季度营收目标是在20.76亿至21.16亿元人民币之间，意味着将比2019年同期增长122%至126%。考虑到前九个月的表现，以及当下的货币汇率，华尔街认为该公司全年营收将为10.1亿美元的普遍预期与公司自己的财测是大致相符的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1e48eddcb2ffd3f6cefa96c7bbff66d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\"></p><p>展望来年，市场目前预计该公司营收2021年将增长77%，之后的2022年增长49%。这一切有一个重大的前提，这就是今年入学的新生不流失，同时明年他们还将获取新的客户。在每股盈利方面，跟谁学明年预计将继续亏损，只是具体幅度从今年的0.59美元一路缩窄至2022年的0.30美元。</p><p><b>分析与评论</b></p><p>虽然过去一年时间当中，跟谁学股价涨幅可观，但是近几个月以来，波动也极为剧烈，较之8月的141美元下得55%以上，哪怕较之10月的120美元也低了46%。换言之，虽然营收增长令人印象深刻，但是盈利，乃至于调整后运营利润率等其实都令人失望，该公司并未证明自己具备将强势运营环境转化为运营利润的能力。</p><p>长期而言，中国市场的竞争将持续激烈，而管理层想要留住优秀的师资人才，就必须付出非常可观的代价。如果他们不能用收入挽留住有限的人才，则服务品质就会下滑。虽然何一家企业而言，高增长都会伴随着挑战，但是当一家企业需要面对超过130万学生时，要保证所有人都满意，这挑战就更为巨大。在学生流失率较高的情况下，他们就必须在竞争方面更多付出，而这必然会让利润率受到更大的压迫。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d2270f719183fc42b53ab41eb017c4a\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p>中国线上教育市场今年的一个新势头是，一些新兴企业正在试图以价格战撬开市场大门。诚然，2020年肯定是一个线上教育的大年，但是具体分析，跟谁学现在其实已经摘掉了所有最低的果子，而到了明年，伴随全球疫情退却，他们想要达成现在这样的增长预期其实已经很难了。</p><p>估值方面，该股价格目前相当于过去一年销售额的18.8倍，2020年全年营收普遍预期的14.3倍，2021年普遍预期的8.1倍。无论怎么看，这增长溢价其实都已经贵过了大多数公司。跟谁学的关键之一就在于，虽然该公司是围绕一个科技平台建立起来的，但是他们需要给老师发工资，定期展开宣传活动来推动用户群增长，这也就意味着，它实质上带有鲜明的劳动力密集型和资本密集型色彩。可是，跟谁学的估值却已经可以和那些纯粹科技公司，或者是软件app公司等量齐观了，尽管后者显然更容易实现规模效应。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14bf13ffc922f55d858586c6c304ed65\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"368\"></p><p>现在，中国线上教育市场的大玩家远不止跟谁学一家，比如最大上市公司好未市值420亿美元，远超跟谁学的150亿美元。虽然好未来今年的增速没有跟谁学这么火爆，但是该公司已经实现了盈利和正向自由现金流。还有产品和服务更广泛的新东方，也实现了盈利。此外，还有新东方在线、海亮教育等也同样是疫情的重大获益者。虽然这些玩家都专注于市场的不同领域，业务模式也不尽相同，但是中国市场竞争激烈的局面无可改变，而这就可能会转化为价格压力，让跟谁学未来增长受限。</p><p><b>最终结论</b></p><p>当前价位意味着市场对于跟谁学的增长前景判断过于乐观，而实际上下跌风险巨大。具体而言，该公司和股票的麻烦在于：</p><p>——虽然销售额和入学增长势头旺盛，但是运营亏损却在扩大。</p><p>——为支持增长所负担的成本压力巨大，包括教师薪酬、营销支出等，这将严重限制盈利潜力。</p><p>——虽然今年的表现在疫情推动下呈现强势，但是到2021年，伴随疫情结束，局面就可能反转过来。</p><p>——强势增长之下，学生数以百万计，教师也成千上万，这就使得品控和消费者满意度的管理变得极为困难。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becc04985ddbb33452465c5ca9a971c4\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"683\"></p><p>——中国线上教育市场竞争极端激烈，若干家大玩家争夺相同的目标客户群，这就意味着价格将背负长期压力。</p><p>——在本年度现金流为负数，且2022年预计将继续亏损的情况下，跟谁学股票的市销率却很高，意味着价格已经达到了极端水平。</p><p>很可能，从下一个季度往后，市场将被迫不断调降跟谁学的各种长期增长预期，给股价造成越来越大的表现低于水准的压力。一旦他们财务前景恶化的势头变得明显，市场情绪也将急转直下，使得股价遭受到新一轮的打压。</p><p>如果跟谁学不希望看到这一幕发生，那么他们就必须能够继续维持当下高企的成长动能，同时还让市场看到运营利润改善的迹象。在这方面，投资者可以关注毛利润率和运营支出等指标，以确定是否能够找到未来盈利潜力的积极信号。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>浑水公司：跟谁学就是一个骗局，股价会跌至个位数</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n浑水公司：跟谁学就是一个骗局，股价会跌至个位数\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-12-14 22:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>12月14日消息，知名做空机构浑水公司最新表示：<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>就是一个骗局。一旦审计失败，股价就会跌至个位数</b>。</p><p>跟谁学盘前下挫，现跌1.75%。</p><p>今年以来，跟谁学受到空头机构的“密集轰炸”，包括灰熊研究、香橼资本、天蝎创投，乃至大名鼎鼎的浑水都先后发布做空报告，总数达十余份，指责跟谁学存在财务表现数据造假，注册用户造假，流量刷单，乃至证券欺诈等问题，一时间跟谁学被坊间称作是被做空最多的中概股。虽然这些报告确实造成了跟谁学行情的剧烈波动，但是回望全年，该股依然涨幅惊人。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ebbfbd674b67aacd6004c666c704886\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><b>复盘第三季度财报</b></p><p>11月20日，跟谁学发布第三季度财报称，公司当季通用会计准则（GAAP）每股ADR（美国存托凭证）亏损0.57美元，净营收19.66亿元人民币，约合2.9亿美元，同比增长253%，延续了第二季度的强势。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e01126a6408e1b614176a925d043ec0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"576\"></p><p>截至季度结束，跟谁学付费入学学生为125.6万人，同比增长134%，颇为强劲。在过去一年时间当中，各种疫情相关的趋势加速了线上学习需求的增长速度，使得行业迅速迎来了繁荣。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74a6be98605265e990c4d5da6cf6a6df\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\"></p><p>然而，这种迅猛的增长也让跟谁学遇到了强劲的挑战，为了持续提供和过去同等品质的教育服务，他们的相关支出，从师资到辅导材料都大幅度增长。唯一可以庆幸的是，这些支出220%的同比增长速度还低于净所得的增速，使得毛利润率能够实现从71.9%到74.4%的同比增长。</p><p>更加让人担心的是运营支出同比增幅达到了496%，远超过营收，导致运营亏损巨大。管理层宣称，这与销售支出，比如营销费用和销售团队的报酬增长有关。可是，换个视角来看，这其实是在竞争高度激烈的中国线上教育市场上，客户获取成本在增高。正是因为同样的原因，他们的研发支出也攀升了286%。当季调整后运营亏损为0.21亿元人民币，约合1.46亿美元，超过前一季度的1.07亿元人民币，而去年第三季度，他们一度还实现了700万人民币的盈利。</p><p><b>企业财测与市场预期</b></p><p>目前，跟谁学管理层的第四季度营收目标是在20.76亿至21.16亿元人民币之间，意味着将比2019年同期增长122%至126%。考虑到前九个月的表现，以及当下的货币汇率，华尔街认为该公司全年营收将为10.1亿美元的普遍预期与公司自己的财测是大致相符的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1e48eddcb2ffd3f6cefa96c7bbff66d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\"></p><p>展望来年，市场目前预计该公司营收2021年将增长77%，之后的2022年增长49%。这一切有一个重大的前提，这就是今年入学的新生不流失，同时明年他们还将获取新的客户。在每股盈利方面，跟谁学明年预计将继续亏损，只是具体幅度从今年的0.59美元一路缩窄至2022年的0.30美元。</p><p><b>分析与评论</b></p><p>虽然过去一年时间当中，跟谁学股价涨幅可观，但是近几个月以来，波动也极为剧烈，较之8月的141美元下得55%以上，哪怕较之10月的120美元也低了46%。换言之，虽然营收增长令人印象深刻，但是盈利，乃至于调整后运营利润率等其实都令人失望，该公司并未证明自己具备将强势运营环境转化为运营利润的能力。</p><p>长期而言，中国市场的竞争将持续激烈，而管理层想要留住优秀的师资人才，就必须付出非常可观的代价。如果他们不能用收入挽留住有限的人才，则服务品质就会下滑。虽然何一家企业而言，高增长都会伴随着挑战，但是当一家企业需要面对超过130万学生时，要保证所有人都满意，这挑战就更为巨大。在学生流失率较高的情况下，他们就必须在竞争方面更多付出，而这必然会让利润率受到更大的压迫。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d2270f719183fc42b53ab41eb017c4a\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p>中国线上教育市场今年的一个新势头是，一些新兴企业正在试图以价格战撬开市场大门。诚然，2020年肯定是一个线上教育的大年，但是具体分析，跟谁学现在其实已经摘掉了所有最低的果子，而到了明年，伴随全球疫情退却，他们想要达成现在这样的增长预期其实已经很难了。</p><p>估值方面，该股价格目前相当于过去一年销售额的18.8倍，2020年全年营收普遍预期的14.3倍，2021年普遍预期的8.1倍。无论怎么看，这增长溢价其实都已经贵过了大多数公司。跟谁学的关键之一就在于，虽然该公司是围绕一个科技平台建立起来的，但是他们需要给老师发工资，定期展开宣传活动来推动用户群增长，这也就意味着，它实质上带有鲜明的劳动力密集型和资本密集型色彩。可是，跟谁学的估值却已经可以和那些纯粹科技公司，或者是软件app公司等量齐观了，尽管后者显然更容易实现规模效应。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14bf13ffc922f55d858586c6c304ed65\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"368\"></p><p>现在，中国线上教育市场的大玩家远不止跟谁学一家，比如最大上市公司好未市值420亿美元，远超跟谁学的150亿美元。虽然好未来今年的增速没有跟谁学这么火爆，但是该公司已经实现了盈利和正向自由现金流。还有产品和服务更广泛的新东方，也实现了盈利。此外，还有新东方在线、海亮教育等也同样是疫情的重大获益者。虽然这些玩家都专注于市场的不同领域，业务模式也不尽相同，但是中国市场竞争激烈的局面无可改变，而这就可能会转化为价格压力，让跟谁学未来增长受限。</p><p><b>最终结论</b></p><p>当前价位意味着市场对于跟谁学的增长前景判断过于乐观，而实际上下跌风险巨大。具体而言，该公司和股票的麻烦在于：</p><p>——虽然销售额和入学增长势头旺盛，但是运营亏损却在扩大。</p><p>——为支持增长所负担的成本压力巨大，包括教师薪酬、营销支出等，这将严重限制盈利潜力。</p><p>——虽然今年的表现在疫情推动下呈现强势，但是到2021年，伴随疫情结束，局面就可能反转过来。</p><p>——强势增长之下，学生数以百万计，教师也成千上万，这就使得品控和消费者满意度的管理变得极为困难。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becc04985ddbb33452465c5ca9a971c4\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"683\"></p><p>——中国线上教育市场竞争极端激烈，若干家大玩家争夺相同的目标客户群，这就意味着价格将背负长期压力。</p><p>——在本年度现金流为负数，且2022年预计将继续亏损的情况下，跟谁学股票的市销率却很高，意味着价格已经达到了极端水平。</p><p>很可能，从下一个季度往后，市场将被迫不断调降跟谁学的各种长期增长预期，给股价造成越来越大的表现低于水准的压力。一旦他们财务前景恶化的势头变得明显，市场情绪也将急转直下，使得股价遭受到新一轮的打压。</p><p>如果跟谁学不希望看到这一幕发生，那么他们就必须能够继续维持当下高企的成长动能，同时还让市场看到运营利润改善的迹象。在这方面，投资者可以关注毛利润率和运营支出等指标，以确定是否能够找到未来盈利潜力的积极信号。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f49cfbbad938b58f9d764c4f5e672e9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104367018","content_text":"12月14日消息，知名做空机构浑水公司最新表示：跟谁学就是一个骗局。一旦审计失败，股价就会跌至个位数。跟谁学盘前下挫，现跌1.75%。今年以来，跟谁学受到空头机构的“密集轰炸”，包括灰熊研究、香橼资本、天蝎创投，乃至大名鼎鼎的浑水都先后发布做空报告，总数达十余份，指责跟谁学存在财务表现数据造假，注册用户造假，流量刷单，乃至证券欺诈等问题，一时间跟谁学被坊间称作是被做空最多的中概股。虽然这些报告确实造成了跟谁学行情的剧烈波动，但是回望全年，该股依然涨幅惊人。复盘第三季度财报11月20日，跟谁学发布第三季度财报称，公司当季通用会计准则（GAAP）每股ADR（美国存托凭证）亏损0.57美元，净营收19.66亿元人民币，约合2.9亿美元，同比增长253%，延续了第二季度的强势。截至季度结束，跟谁学付费入学学生为125.6万人，同比增长134%，颇为强劲。在过去一年时间当中，各种疫情相关的趋势加速了线上学习需求的增长速度，使得行业迅速迎来了繁荣。然而，这种迅猛的增长也让跟谁学遇到了强劲的挑战，为了持续提供和过去同等品质的教育服务，他们的相关支出，从师资到辅导材料都大幅度增长。唯一可以庆幸的是，这些支出220%的同比增长速度还低于净所得的增速，使得毛利润率能够实现从71.9%到74.4%的同比增长。更加让人担心的是运营支出同比增幅达到了496%，远超过营收，导致运营亏损巨大。管理层宣称，这与销售支出，比如营销费用和销售团队的报酬增长有关。可是，换个视角来看，这其实是在竞争高度激烈的中国线上教育市场上，客户获取成本在增高。正是因为同样的原因，他们的研发支出也攀升了286%。当季调整后运营亏损为0.21亿元人民币，约合1.46亿美元，超过前一季度的1.07亿元人民币，而去年第三季度，他们一度还实现了700万人民币的盈利。企业财测与市场预期目前，跟谁学管理层的第四季度营收目标是在20.76亿至21.16亿元人民币之间，意味着将比2019年同期增长122%至126%。考虑到前九个月的表现，以及当下的货币汇率，华尔街认为该公司全年营收将为10.1亿美元的普遍预期与公司自己的财测是大致相符的。展望来年，市场目前预计该公司营收2021年将增长77%，之后的2022年增长49%。这一切有一个重大的前提，这就是今年入学的新生不流失，同时明年他们还将获取新的客户。在每股盈利方面，跟谁学明年预计将继续亏损，只是具体幅度从今年的0.59美元一路缩窄至2022年的0.30美元。分析与评论虽然过去一年时间当中，跟谁学股价涨幅可观，但是近几个月以来，波动也极为剧烈，较之8月的141美元下得55%以上，哪怕较之10月的120美元也低了46%。换言之，虽然营收增长令人印象深刻，但是盈利，乃至于调整后运营利润率等其实都令人失望，该公司并未证明自己具备将强势运营环境转化为运营利润的能力。长期而言，中国市场的竞争将持续激烈，而管理层想要留住优秀的师资人才，就必须付出非常可观的代价。如果他们不能用收入挽留住有限的人才，则服务品质就会下滑。虽然何一家企业而言，高增长都会伴随着挑战，但是当一家企业需要面对超过130万学生时，要保证所有人都满意，这挑战就更为巨大。在学生流失率较高的情况下，他们就必须在竞争方面更多付出，而这必然会让利润率受到更大的压迫。中国线上教育市场今年的一个新势头是，一些新兴企业正在试图以价格战撬开市场大门。诚然，2020年肯定是一个线上教育的大年，但是具体分析，跟谁学现在其实已经摘掉了所有最低的果子，而到了明年，伴随全球疫情退却，他们想要达成现在这样的增长预期其实已经很难了。估值方面，该股价格目前相当于过去一年销售额的18.8倍，2020年全年营收普遍预期的14.3倍，2021年普遍预期的8.1倍。无论怎么看，这增长溢价其实都已经贵过了大多数公司。跟谁学的关键之一就在于，虽然该公司是围绕一个科技平台建立起来的，但是他们需要给老师发工资，定期展开宣传活动来推动用户群增长，这也就意味着，它实质上带有鲜明的劳动力密集型和资本密集型色彩。可是，跟谁学的估值却已经可以和那些纯粹科技公司，或者是软件app公司等量齐观了，尽管后者显然更容易实现规模效应。现在，中国线上教育市场的大玩家远不止跟谁学一家，比如最大上市公司好未市值420亿美元，远超跟谁学的150亿美元。虽然好未来今年的增速没有跟谁学这么火爆，但是该公司已经实现了盈利和正向自由现金流。还有产品和服务更广泛的新东方，也实现了盈利。此外，还有新东方在线、海亮教育等也同样是疫情的重大获益者。虽然这些玩家都专注于市场的不同领域，业务模式也不尽相同，但是中国市场竞争激烈的局面无可改变，而这就可能会转化为价格压力，让跟谁学未来增长受限。最终结论当前价位意味着市场对于跟谁学的增长前景判断过于乐观，而实际上下跌风险巨大。具体而言，该公司和股票的麻烦在于：——虽然销售额和入学增长势头旺盛，但是运营亏损却在扩大。——为支持增长所负担的成本压力巨大，包括教师薪酬、营销支出等，这将严重限制盈利潜力。——虽然今年的表现在疫情推动下呈现强势，但是到2021年，伴随疫情结束，局面就可能反转过来。——强势增长之下，学生数以百万计，教师也成千上万，这就使得品控和消费者满意度的管理变得极为困难。——中国线上教育市场竞争极端激烈，若干家大玩家争夺相同的目标客户群，这就意味着价格将背负长期压力。——在本年度现金流为负数，且2022年预计将继续亏损的情况下，跟谁学股票的市销率却很高，意味着价格已经达到了极端水平。很可能，从下一个季度往后，市场将被迫不断调降跟谁学的各种长期增长预期，给股价造成越来越大的表现低于水准的压力。一旦他们财务前景恶化的势头变得明显，市场情绪也将急转直下，使得股价遭受到新一轮的打压。如果跟谁学不希望看到这一幕发生，那么他们就必须能够继续维持当下高企的成长动能，同时还让市场看到运营利润改善的迹象。在这方面，投资者可以关注毛利润率和运营支出等指标，以确定是否能够找到未来盈利潜力的积极信号。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3474501447141386","authorId":"3474501447141386","name":"主宰金钱","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"股价貌似有投资投资者的美元说了算","text":"股价貌似有投资投资者的美元说了算","html":"股价貌似有投资投资者的美元说了算"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":367330819,"gmtCreate":1614908873731,"gmtModify":1703482821107,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>不知道还会不会反弹，但狡兔三窟终无路，华尔街从没有新鲜事","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$不知道还会不会反弹，但狡兔三窟终无路，华尔街从没有新鲜事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314571095","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":961,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395143847,"gmtCreate":1607611314989,"gmtModify":1703849044937,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这不是在说废话吗","listText":"这不是在说废话吗","text":"这不是在说废话吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395143847","repostId":"1127349447","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1127349447","pubTimestamp":1607523512,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127349447?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-09 22:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"只值90美元？摩根大通称特斯拉被严重高估，建议低配 ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127349447","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根大通认为，无论从何种估值角度，特斯拉目前的股价都严重高估。其给予特斯拉低配评级，目标价格90美元，这较公司目前649美元的市场价格有86%的下跌空间。\n\n摩根大通表示，目前基本上所有的估值指标都暗","content":"<p>摩根大通认为，无论从何种估值角度，特斯拉目前的股价都严重高估。其给予特斯拉低配评级，目标价格90美元，这较公司目前649美元的市场价格有86%的下跌空间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f15b0332b465144023e424d423cc664\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"409\"></p>\n<p>摩根大通表示，目前基本上所有的估值指标都暗示特斯拉被严重高估：按照市场对于公司未来12个月盈利预期计算，<b>公司目前市盈率高达175x</b>，而公司所处汽车行业中，宝马、戴姆勒和丰田等行业龙头公司的估值仅为14x、10x和16x。</p>\n<p>自2018年12月8日以来，特斯拉的股价已经上涨了808%，华尔街分析师对于公司的目标价格相应的也增长了451%，但与此同时，分析师普遍下调了对于公司2020—2024年的盈利预期。<b>这种盈利与股价的巨大差距暗示特斯拉本轮的上涨是由某些基本面之外的因素（投机？）所驱动。</b></p>\n<p>摩根大通指出，特斯拉今年业绩超预期很大程度上得益于公司环保积分的销售，<b>但这与电动车的长期销售驱动因素无关</b>：多个国家已暗示将在2035年禁售新的内燃动力汽车，届时环比积分销售对车企影响将明显减弱（传统车企在这之前就必须完成转型）。</p>\n<p>在基本面估值上，特斯拉目前的市值为6160亿美元，几乎是丰田和大众3190亿美元总市值的两倍(193%)。</p>\n<p>作为全球汽车巨头，丰田和大众2019年全年汽车销量达到销售2180万辆车辆，同时产生402亿美元的税前利润，这与特斯拉40万的电动车年产量和8亿美元的税前利润（包括大量补贴）有着天壤之别。</p>\n<p>摩根大通指出，目前特斯拉市价背后所反映的乐观情绪同样让不安。市场对于特斯拉总销量接近丰田和大众的总和，利润率却能达到后者2倍的未来假设过于乐观，<b>这显然忽视了公司所面临的具体执行风险和新进入者的竞争压力</b>。除非公司在其他多个领域（诸如太阳能、火箭等）出现重大突破，目前公司的高估值显然不可持续。</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>只值90美元？摩根大通称特斯拉被严重高估，建议低配 </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n只值90美元？摩根大通称特斯拉被严重高估，建议低配 \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-09 22:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3612991><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根大通认为，无论从何种估值角度，特斯拉目前的股价都严重高估。其给予特斯拉低配评级，目标价格90美元，这较公司目前649美元的市场价格有86%的下跌空间。\n\n摩根大通表示，目前基本上所有的估值指标都暗示特斯拉被严重高估：按照市场对于公司未来12个月盈利预期计算，公司目前市盈率高达175x，而公司所处汽车行业中，宝马、戴姆勒和丰田等行业龙头公司的估值仅为14x、10x和16x。\n自2018年12月8...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3612991\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf056c93b86b4b78405c574b04f01c45","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3612991","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1127349447","content_text":"摩根大通认为，无论从何种估值角度，特斯拉目前的股价都严重高估。其给予特斯拉低配评级，目标价格90美元，这较公司目前649美元的市场价格有86%的下跌空间。\n\n摩根大通表示，目前基本上所有的估值指标都暗示特斯拉被严重高估：按照市场对于公司未来12个月盈利预期计算，公司目前市盈率高达175x，而公司所处汽车行业中，宝马、戴姆勒和丰田等行业龙头公司的估值仅为14x、10x和16x。\n自2018年12月8日以来，特斯拉的股价已经上涨了808%，华尔街分析师对于公司的目标价格相应的也增长了451%，但与此同时，分析师普遍下调了对于公司2020—2024年的盈利预期。这种盈利与股价的巨大差距暗示特斯拉本轮的上涨是由某些基本面之外的因素（投机？）所驱动。\n摩根大通指出，特斯拉今年业绩超预期很大程度上得益于公司环保积分的销售，但这与电动车的长期销售驱动因素无关：多个国家已暗示将在2035年禁售新的内燃动力汽车，届时环比积分销售对车企影响将明显减弱（传统车企在这之前就必须完成转型）。\n在基本面估值上，特斯拉目前的市值为6160亿美元，几乎是丰田和大众3190亿美元总市值的两倍(193%)。\n作为全球汽车巨头，丰田和大众2019年全年汽车销量达到销售2180万辆车辆，同时产生402亿美元的税前利润，这与特斯拉40万的电动车年产量和8亿美元的税前利润（包括大量补贴）有着天壤之别。\n摩根大通指出，目前特斯拉市价背后所反映的乐观情绪同样让不安。市场对于特斯拉总销量接近丰田和大众的总和，利润率却能达到后者2倍的未来假设过于乐观，这显然忽视了公司所面临的具体执行风险和新进入者的竞争压力。除非公司在其他多个领域（诸如太阳能、火箭等）出现重大突破，目前公司的高估值显然不可持续。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":970005431,"gmtCreate":1597455420223,"gmtModify":1704215912330,"author":{"id":"3549001260752923","authorId":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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International(RICK)$</a>现在对于实体经济传统产业的投资价值踏踏实实研究的人太少了","text":"$Rick’s Cabaret International(RICK)$现在对于实体经济传统产业的投资价值踏踏实实研究的人太少了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944766125","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}