lioneu的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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2021-05-19

$老虎证券(TIGR)$竟然逆流而上，不可思议呀[惊讶]

2021-06-11

$老虎证券(TIGR)$这趋势能坚持多久？[捂脸]

2021-03-26

新加坡客服确实需要大力改进，不然客源流失呀

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-02

$老虎证券(TIGR)$正在收割韭菜吗？[汗颜]

2021-05-11

这141178万念起来费劲，用14.12亿不香吗？[汗颜]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-17

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$今天会继续📉吗？

2021-03-01

$优格医疗保健有限公司(8K7.SI)$为什么这样呢？

2021-05-14

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$继续跌，刺激呀[愤怒]

2021-04-15

冲啊！[开心]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-15

评论是他们的日常工作，不写些辛辣的没人看。写对了一举成名、写错了也没人理会，所以可以乱写[得意]

华尔街三大投行警告美股回调，发生了什么？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Inc.(TLRY)$继续跌，刺激呀[愤怒]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196088961","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":199235409,"gmtCreate":1620706255101,"gmtModify":1634196942774,"author":{"id":"3548807569819060","authorId":"3548807569819060","name":"lioneu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164f38de123399655086489cd0d1e35d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548807569819060","authorIdStr":"3548807569819060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这141178万念起来费劲，用14.12亿不香吗？[汗颜]&nbsp;","listText":"这141178万念起来费劲，用14.12亿不香吗？[汗颜]&nbsp;","text":"这141178万念起来费劲，用14.12亿不香吗？[汗颜]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199235409","repostId":"1105338436","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":199238435,"gmtCreate":1620705965127,"gmtModify":1634196944875,"author":{"id":"3548807569819060","authorId":"3548807569819060","name":"lioneu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164f38de123399655086489cd0d1e35d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548807569819060","authorIdStr":"3548807569819060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"精彩连续剧，特斯拉充值了，是吧[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"精彩连续剧，特斯拉充值了，是吧[开心]&nbsp;","text":"精彩连续剧，特斯拉充值了，是吧[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199238435","repostId":"1108301559","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":190552642,"gmtCreate":1620637252486,"gmtModify":1634197510723,"author":{"id":"3548807569819060","authorId":"3548807569819060","name":"lioneu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164f38de123399655086489cd0d1e35d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548807569819060","authorIdStr":"3548807569819060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不看好她的基金","listText":"不看好她的基金","text":"不看好她的基金","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190552642","repostId":"1172819387","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1172819387","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1620355302,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172819387?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 10:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“牛市女皇”旗下基金重挫，为何会给市场带来麻烦？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172819387","media":"Wind万得","summary":"香港万得通讯社报道，随着明星成长股纷纷回调，最热门的成长股ETF也开始大幅下滑。分析师表示，如果此类热门基金抛售加剧，标普500指数将测试4000点下方。\n由“牛市女皇”凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wo","content":"<p>香港万得通讯社报道，随着明星成长股纷纷回调，最热门的成长股ETF也开始大幅下滑。分析师表示，如果此类热门基金抛售加剧，标普500指数将测试4000点下方。</p>\n<p>由“牛市女皇”凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）管理的ARK创新ETF在2020年实现了近150%的回报率，但它现在正在迅速放弃这些收益。这只ETF自2月高点已回撤逾30%，5月以来已下跌10.47%。周四，该指数再次下跌，截至当日收盘，该ETF跌3.07%至108.13美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b391a72064ea5465f406126af8e8de3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这只ETF专注于生物技术、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>、人工智能、区块链和金融技术等领域的“颠覆性创新”股票。这是一只集中的主题型基金，会随少数高增长股票价格大幅波动。</p>\n<p>该基金的前10大资产占其投资组合的近一半。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的持股比例最高，约占总资产的11%，其次是美国移动支付公司Square、医疗企业Teladoc Health和流媒体平台Roku。排名前10位的公司还包括美国房地产信息查询网站<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>、虚拟会议公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>以及百度等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f1cd9a349c955f212069251309920c\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>随着市场板块轮动从高增长、高倍数股票转向价值型和周期性股票，许多此类股票都出现了暴跌。尽管该ETF提供了对许多<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">创新科技</a>领域的投资，这些领域可能在长期会带来超额回报，但随着投资者的风险偏好降温，拥挤的动量交易出现逆转，此类个股近期表现不佳。</p>\n<p>以特斯拉为例，该公司5月以来已跌逾6%。Zoom，Zillow和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>的股价下跌了超过8%。</p>\n<p>该ETF仍然拥有210亿美元的资产，是最大的主动管理型ETF之一。但随着高估值个股回调，许多投资者纷纷撤离该基金。据《巴伦周刊》报道，投资者在过去一周赎回了7.7亿美元的股票，在过去一个月赎回了8.66亿美元的股票。</p>\n<p><b>高估值个股抛售潮料将持续</b></p>\n<p>展望未来，分析师对ARK创新ETF的未来持谨慎态度。随着人们对通胀的担忧与日俱增，高估值企业变得更难证明其合理性，而前期的强劲涨势也让许多投资者选择获利了结。Bear Traps Report显示，流入该ETF的资金大部分来自过去9个月。报告称，这意味着该ETF目前有50%的资金处于亏损状态。</p>\n<p>此外，分析师的悲观预期也来自于ARK创新ETF的投资风格。凯茜·伍德的投资风格是从自下而上选股的角度来看待风险的，而不是试图模拟各种市场条件下整体投资组合的风险敞口。随着ETF资产基础的膨胀，该基金的流动性下降，更容易遭受严重损失。</p>\n<p>另一部分人则担心该基金对市场造成的影响。Saut Strategy的安德鲁·亚当斯（AndrewAdams）称：“我真正的担心是，以ARK和许多类似基金为代表的高增长区域正处于大幅抛售的危险中，并有可能造成瀑布式下跌。如果这些更具投机性的领域共同开始抛售，那对市场来说不是一个好现象。”</p>\n<p>亚当斯写道：“如果高增长股票开始打破支撑，并带动其余市场，那么标准普尔500指数在3,980-4,000区域终将受到重新测试。”标普500指数周四收于4,201.62点，上涨0.82%。</p>\n<p>亚当斯称，测试3,980-4,000区域的支撑位只会标志着5%至6%的回落，但鉴于美股市场的损失会在其他领域造成更严重亏损。“我宁愿避免这种情况。”</p>\n<p>诚然，这只ETF的记录依然惊人，至少对那些赶上这股上涨浪潮的投资者来说是如此。自2017年年底以来，该ETF涨幅已超过456%，而同期标普500指数的涨幅为88%。ARK的客户投资组合经理雷纳托•莱吉(Renato Leggi)预计，能源和金融等行业的周期性轮动将会消失，并表示这些行业在长期内尤其“容易受到干扰”。他补充称：“我们的表现往往会在风险规避期回调，而在随后的风险偏好上升期，我们往往会表现出色。”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“牛市女皇”旗下基金重挫，为何会给市场带来麻烦？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“牛市女皇”旗下基金重挫，为何会给市场带来麻烦？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-07 10:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>香港万得通讯社报道，随着明星成长股纷纷回调，最热门的成长股ETF也开始大幅下滑。分析师表示，如果此类热门基金抛售加剧，标普500指数将测试4000点下方。</p>\n<p>由“牛市女皇”凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）管理的ARK创新ETF在2020年实现了近150%的回报率，但它现在正在迅速放弃这些收益。这只ETF自2月高点已回撤逾30%，5月以来已下跌10.47%。周四，该指数再次下跌，截至当日收盘，该ETF跌3.07%至108.13美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b391a72064ea5465f406126af8e8de3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这只ETF专注于生物技术、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>、人工智能、区块链和金融技术等领域的“颠覆性创新”股票。这是一只集中的主题型基金，会随少数高增长股票价格大幅波动。</p>\n<p>该基金的前10大资产占其投资组合的近一半。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的持股比例最高，约占总资产的11%，其次是美国移动支付公司Square、医疗企业Teladoc Health和流媒体平台Roku。排名前10位的公司还包括美国房地产信息查询网站<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>、虚拟会议公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>以及百度等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f1cd9a349c955f212069251309920c\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>随着市场板块轮动从高增长、高倍数股票转向价值型和周期性股票，许多此类股票都出现了暴跌。尽管该ETF提供了对许多<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">创新科技</a>领域的投资，这些领域可能在长期会带来超额回报，但随着投资者的风险偏好降温，拥挤的动量交易出现逆转，此类个股近期表现不佳。</p>\n<p>以特斯拉为例，该公司5月以来已跌逾6%。Zoom，Zillow和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>的股价下跌了超过8%。</p>\n<p>该ETF仍然拥有210亿美元的资产，是最大的主动管理型ETF之一。但随着高估值个股回调，许多投资者纷纷撤离该基金。据《巴伦周刊》报道，投资者在过去一周赎回了7.7亿美元的股票，在过去一个月赎回了8.66亿美元的股票。</p>\n<p><b>高估值个股抛售潮料将持续</b></p>\n<p>展望未来，分析师对ARK创新ETF的未来持谨慎态度。随着人们对通胀的担忧与日俱增，高估值企业变得更难证明其合理性，而前期的强劲涨势也让许多投资者选择获利了结。Bear Traps Report显示，流入该ETF的资金大部分来自过去9个月。报告称，这意味着该ETF目前有50%的资金处于亏损状态。</p>\n<p>此外，分析师的悲观预期也来自于ARK创新ETF的投资风格。凯茜·伍德的投资风格是从自下而上选股的角度来看待风险的，而不是试图模拟各种市场条件下整体投资组合的风险敞口。随着ETF资产基础的膨胀，该基金的流动性下降，更容易遭受严重损失。</p>\n<p>另一部分人则担心该基金对市场造成的影响。Saut Strategy的安德鲁·亚当斯（AndrewAdams）称：“我真正的担心是，以ARK和许多类似基金为代表的高增长区域正处于大幅抛售的危险中，并有可能造成瀑布式下跌。如果这些更具投机性的领域共同开始抛售，那对市场来说不是一个好现象。”</p>\n<p>亚当斯写道：“如果高增长股票开始打破支撑，并带动其余市场，那么标准普尔500指数在3,980-4,000区域终将受到重新测试。”标普500指数周四收于4,201.62点，上涨0.82%。</p>\n<p>亚当斯称，测试3,980-4,000区域的支撑位只会标志着5%至6%的回落，但鉴于美股市场的损失会在其他领域造成更严重亏损。“我宁愿避免这种情况。”</p>\n<p>诚然，这只ETF的记录依然惊人，至少对那些赶上这股上涨浪潮的投资者来说是如此。自2017年年底以来，该ETF涨幅已超过456%，而同期标普500指数的涨幅为88%。ARK的客户投资组合经理雷纳托•莱吉(Renato Leggi)预计，能源和金融等行业的周期性轮动将会消失，并表示这些行业在长期内尤其“容易受到干扰”。他补充称：“我们的表现往往会在风险规避期回调，而在随后的风险偏好上升期，我们往往会表现出色。”</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1243a3c3332646ecb05aa2adbc87f85e","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","ARKO":"ARKO Corp","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","Z":"Zillow","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","ZM":"Zoom","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BIDU":"百度","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF","ROKU":"Roku Inc","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172819387","content_text":"香港万得通讯社报道，随着明星成长股纷纷回调，最热门的成长股ETF也开始大幅下滑。分析师表示，如果此类热门基金抛售加剧，标普500指数将测试4000点下方。\n由“牛市女皇”凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）管理的ARK创新ETF在2020年实现了近150%的回报率，但它现在正在迅速放弃这些收益。这只ETF自2月高点已回撤逾30%，5月以来已下跌10.47%。周四，该指数再次下跌，截至当日收盘，该ETF跌3.07%至108.13美元。\n\n这只ETF专注于生物技术、机器人、人工智能、区块链和金融技术等领域的“颠覆性创新”股票。这是一只集中的主题型基金，会随少数高增长股票价格大幅波动。\n该基金的前10大资产占其投资组合的近一半。特斯拉的持股比例最高，约占总资产的11%，其次是美国移动支付公司Square、医疗企业Teladoc Health和流媒体平台Roku。排名前10位的公司还包括美国房地产信息查询网站Zillow、虚拟会议公司Zoom以及百度等。\n\n随着市场板块轮动从高增长、高倍数股票转向价值型和周期性股票，许多此类股票都出现了暴跌。尽管该ETF提供了对许多创新科技领域的投资，这些领域可能在长期会带来超额回报，但随着投资者的风险偏好降温，拥挤的动量交易出现逆转，此类个股近期表现不佳。\n以特斯拉为例，该公司5月以来已跌逾6%。Zoom，Zillow和百度的股价下跌了超过8%。\n该ETF仍然拥有210亿美元的资产，是最大的主动管理型ETF之一。但随着高估值个股回调，许多投资者纷纷撤离该基金。据《巴伦周刊》报道，投资者在过去一周赎回了7.7亿美元的股票，在过去一个月赎回了8.66亿美元的股票。\n高估值个股抛售潮料将持续\n展望未来，分析师对ARK创新ETF的未来持谨慎态度。随着人们对通胀的担忧与日俱增，高估值企业变得更难证明其合理性，而前期的强劲涨势也让许多投资者选择获利了结。Bear Traps Report显示，流入该ETF的资金大部分来自过去9个月。报告称，这意味着该ETF目前有50%的资金处于亏损状态。\n此外，分析师的悲观预期也来自于ARK创新ETF的投资风格。凯茜·伍德的投资风格是从自下而上选股的角度来看待风险的，而不是试图模拟各种市场条件下整体投资组合的风险敞口。随着ETF资产基础的膨胀，该基金的流动性下降，更容易遭受严重损失。\n另一部分人则担心该基金对市场造成的影响。Saut Strategy的安德鲁·亚当斯（AndrewAdams）称：“我真正的担心是，以ARK和许多类似基金为代表的高增长区域正处于大幅抛售的危险中，并有可能造成瀑布式下跌。如果这些更具投机性的领域共同开始抛售，那对市场来说不是一个好现象。”\n亚当斯写道：“如果高增长股票开始打破支撑，并带动其余市场，那么标准普尔500指数在3,980-4,000区域终将受到重新测试。”标普500指数周四收于4,201.62点，上涨0.82%。\n亚当斯称，测试3,980-4,000区域的支撑位只会标志着5%至6%的回落，但鉴于美股市场的损失会在其他领域造成更严重亏损。“我宁愿避免这种情况。”\n诚然，这只ETF的记录依然惊人，至少对那些赶上这股上涨浪潮的投资者来说是如此。自2017年年底以来，该ETF涨幅已超过456%，而同期标普500指数的涨幅为88%。ARK的客户投资组合经理雷纳托•莱吉(Renato Leggi)预计，能源和金融等行业的周期性轮动将会消失，并表示这些行业在长期内尤其“容易受到干扰”。他补充称：“我们的表现往往会在风险规避期回调，而在随后的风险偏好上升期，我们往往会表现出色。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"ARKF":0.9,"Z":0.9,"ZM":0.9,"SH":0.9,"ROKU":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"BIDU":0.9,"TDOC":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,"ARKO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"ARKG":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":105158464,"gmtCreate":1620281047258,"gmtModify":1634206393814,"author":{"id":"3548807569819060","authorId":"3548807569819060","name":"lioneu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164f38de123399655086489cd0d1e35d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548807569819060","authorIdStr":"3548807569819060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看完了竟然没看懂[汗颜]&nbsp;","listText":"看完了竟然没看懂[汗颜]&nbsp;","text":"看完了竟然没看懂[汗颜]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105158464","repostId":"1154900598","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1900,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":102495923,"gmtCreate":1620228661462,"gmtModify":1634206806971,"author":{"id":"3548807569819060","authorId":"3548807569819060","name":"lioneu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164f38de123399655086489cd0d1e35d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548807569819060","authorIdStr":"3548807569819060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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03:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美油期货周三收高1.5% 创6周来最高收盘价","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2131305071","media":"新浪美股","summary":"北京时间29日凌晨，原油期货价格周三收高。昨日OPEC+坚持继续逐步解除产量限制措施的计划，暗示尽管印度的新冠感染病例激增，但OPEC+对未来的原油需求前景。　　纽约商品交易所6月交割的西德州中质原油期货价格上涨92美分，涨幅1.5%，收于每桶63.86美元。7月布伦特原油期货上涨91美分，涨幅1.4%，收于每桶66.78美元。　　按照最活跃合约计算，周三WTI与布伦特原油均创3月17日以来的最高收盘价。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>　　北京时间29日凌晨，原油期货价格周三收高。昨日OPEC+坚持继续逐步解除产量限制措施的计划，暗示尽管印度的新冠感染病例激增，但OPEC+对未来的原油需求前景</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/101/w550h351/20201008/376f-kaaxtfn6771135.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>有信心。</p>\n<p>　　美国政府报告称美国上周原油与汽油库存小幅攀升，数据还显示美国的隐含汽油需求较一年前大幅攀升。</p>\n<p>　　分析师称，原油市场的关注焦点仍是全球经济与原油需求复苏的长期状况，而在季节性需求高峰即将到来时，未来原油需求继续闪现强劲增长讯号。</p>\n<p>　　纽约商品交易所6月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨92美分，涨幅1.5%，收于每桶63.86美元。</p>\n<p>　　伦敦<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ICE\">洲际交易所</a></span><span></span>6月交割的布伦特原油期货价格上涨85美分，涨幅1.3%，收于每桶67.27美元。7月布伦特原油期货上涨91美分，涨幅1.4%，收于每桶66.78美元。</p>\n<p>　　按照最活跃合约计算，周三WTI与布伦特原油均创3月17日以来的最高收盘价。</p>\n<div>\n</div>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：张俊 SF065</p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美油期货周三收高1.5% 创6周来最高收盘价</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美油期货周三收高1.5% 创6周来最高收盘价\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-29 03:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-04-29/doc-ikmxzfmk9563053.shtml><strong>新浪美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>北京时间29日凌晨，原油期货价格周三收高。昨日OPEC+坚持继续逐步解除产量限制措施的计划，暗示尽管印度的新冠感染病例激增，但OPEC+对未来的原油需求前景\n\n有信心。\n　　美国政府报告称美国上周原油与汽油库存小幅攀升，数据还显示美国的隐含汽油需求较一年前大幅攀升。\n　　分析师称，原油市场的关注焦点仍是全球经济与原油需求复苏的长期状况，而在季节性需求高峰即将到来时，未来原油需求继续闪现强劲增长讯号...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-04-29/doc-ikmxzfmk9563053.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/101/w550h351/20201008/376f-kaaxtfn6771135.jpg","relate_stocks":{"SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-04-29/doc-ikmxzfmk9563053.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2131305071","content_text":"北京时间29日凌晨，原油期货价格周三收高。昨日OPEC+坚持继续逐步解除产量限制措施的计划，暗示尽管印度的新冠感染病例激增，但OPEC+对未来的原油需求前景\n\n有信心。\n　　美国政府报告称美国上周原油与汽油库存小幅攀升，数据还显示美国的隐含汽油需求较一年前大幅攀升。\n　　分析师称，原油市场的关注焦点仍是全球经济与原油需求复苏的长期状况，而在季节性需求高峰即将到来时，未来原油需求继续闪现强劲增长讯号。\n　　纽约商品交易所6月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨92美分，涨幅1.5%，收于每桶63.86美元。\n　　伦敦洲际交易所6月交割的布伦特原油期货价格上涨85美分，涨幅1.3%，收于每桶67.27美元。7月布伦特原油期货上涨91美分，涨幅1.4%，收于每桶66.78美元。\n　　按照最活跃合约计算，周三WTI与布伦特原油均创3月17日以来的最高收盘价。\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：张俊 SF065","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDG":0.6,"UWTIF":1,"DWTIF":0.6,"QMmain":1,"UCO":1,"BZmain":0.6,"USO":1,"SCO":1,"DWT":0.6,"CLmain":1,"DUG":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":109948036,"gmtCreate":1619661068025,"gmtModify":1634210923931,"author":{"id":"3548807569819060","authorId":"3548807569819060","name":"lioneu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164f38de123399655086489cd0d1e35d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548807569819060","authorIdStr":"3548807569819060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一手好牌打成这样……[无语]&nbsp;","listText":"一手好牌打成这样……[无语]&nbsp;","text":"一手好牌打成这样……[无语]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109948036","repostId":"1146541007","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1146541007","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619660700,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146541007?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-29 09:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Reasons to Avoid Intel After Its Q1 Earnings Report<blockquote>英特尔发布第一季度收益报告后避开英特尔的5个理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146541007","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The world's top PC and data center CPU maker is losing its edge.\nIntel's stock recently tumbled afte","content":"<p>The world's top PC and data center CPU maker is losing its edge.</p><p><blockquote>全球顶级PC和数据中心CPU制造商正在失去优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Intel</b>'s&nbsp;stock recently tumbled after the chipmaker posted its first-quarter earnings. Its revenue fell 1% year over year to $19.7 billion, but still beat estimates by $1.75 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔</b>在这家芯片制造商公布第一季度收益后，该公司的股价最近暴跌。其收入同比下降1%至197亿美元，但仍超出预期17.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Its&nbsp;non-GAAP&nbsp;net income declined 6% to $5.7 billion. Its non-GAAP earnings per share, buoyed by buybacks, dipped 1% to $1.39 and cleared expectations by $0.25. Those numbers exclude its NAND business, which will be sold to&nbsp;<b>SK Hynix</b>, and other one-time items.</p><p><blockquote>其非GAAP净利润下降6%至57亿美元。在回购的推动下，其非GAAP每股收益下降1%至1.39美元，比预期高出0.25美元。这些数字不包括其NAND业务，该业务将出售给<b>SK海力士</b>，以及其他一次性项目。</blockquote></p><p> Intel expects its revenue and non-GAAP earnings to decline 10% and 15% year over year, respectively, in the second quarter. Analysts had expected its revenue and earnings to fall 9% and 19%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔预计第二季度营收和非GAAP盈利将同比分别下降10%和15%。分析师此前预计其收入和盈利将分别下降9%和19%。</blockquote></p><p> For the full year, Intel expects its GAAP revenue to dip 1% to $77 billion, and for its non-GAAP revenue to drop 7% to $72.5 billion, which misses the consensus forecast of $72.8 billion. It expects its non-GAAP EPS to decline 13%, compared to gloomier forecasts for a 19% decline.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔预计全年GAAP收入将下降1%至770亿美元，非GAAP收入将下降7%至725亿美元，低于市场普遍预测的728亿美元。该公司预计非GAAP每股收益将下降13%，而较悲观的预测为下降19%。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's first-quarter growth cleared Wall Street's low bar, but its mixed guidance indicated its troubles would persist throughout the year. Intel's stock might look cheap at 13 times forward earnings with a decent forward yield of 2.4%, but it's still not worth buying for five simple reasons.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔第一季度的增长清除了华尔街的低门槛，但其好坏参半的指引表明其麻烦将持续全年。英特尔的股票可能看起来很便宜，预期市盈率为13倍，预期收益率为2.4%，但出于五个简单的原因，它仍然不值得购买。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. PC sales will decelerate after the pandemic ends</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.疫情结束后PC销售将减速</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel's Client Computing Group (CCG) revenue rose 8% year over year to $10.6 billion during the quarter as it sold more CPUs for PCs. Its total PC unit volumes increased 38% year over year, with a 54% jump in notebook volumes offsetting a 4% decline in desktop volumes.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔客户端计算集团(CCG)本季度收入同比增长8%，达到106亿美元，原因是该公司销售了更多PC CPU。其PC总销量同比增长38%，其中笔记本电脑销量增长54%，抵消了台式机销量下降4%的影响。</blockquote></p><p> However, PC sales mainly rose because the pandemic caused more people to buy new systems for remote work, online education, and gaming. That tailwind&nbsp;should fade&nbsp;after the pandemic ends.</p><p><blockquote>然而，PC销量增长主要是因为疫情导致更多人购买用于远程工作、在线教育和游戏的新系统。疫情结束后，这种顺风应该会消退。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. It could lose more market share to AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.它可能会将更多市场份额输给AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel's ongoingchip shortage, which started in 2018 and hasn't been resolved yet, caused many PC makers to buy more chips from its fabless rival&nbsp;<b>AMD</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AMD), which outsources its chip production to&nbsp;<b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:TSM)&nbsp;instead of manufacturing its chips internally.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔持续的芯片短缺始于2018年，尚未解决，导致许多PC制造商从其无晶圆厂竞争对手那里购买更多芯片<b>AMD</b>（纳斯达克：AMD），将其芯片生产外包给<b>台积电</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TSM）而不是在内部制造芯片。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, Intel ceded the desktop and notebook CPU markets to AMD over the past three years.</p><p><blockquote>因此，英特尔在过去三年中将台式机和笔记本CPU市场拱手让给了AMD。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bab2b21309a9664da8b9d5d003dd857\" tg-width=\"1151\" tg-height=\"429\"><span>DATA SOURCE: PASSMARK SOFTWARE.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：PASSMARK软件。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Those declines could continue for the foreseeable future as the pandemic-related tailwinds dissipate and AMD moves further ahead in the \"process race\" to create smaller and more powerful chips with TSMC.</p><p><blockquote>随着与大流行相关的顺风消散，以及AMD在与台积电合作制造更小、更强大芯片的“工艺竞赛”中进一步领先，这些下降可能会在可预见的未来持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Existential threats in the data center market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>三、数据中心市场存在的威胁</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloud capex soared across the world over the past year as data centers upgraded their hardware to cope with more online activities throughout the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年，随着数据中心升级硬件以应对疫情更多的在线活动，全球云资本支出飙升。</blockquote></p><p> For example, the three largest hyper-cloud companies --<b>Amazon</b>,<b>Microsoft</b>, and&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>'s Google -- collectively boosted their capex 32% in 2020. That increased spending should be good news for Intel, which holds a near-monopoly in data center CPUs.</p><p><blockquote>比如三家最大的超云公司——<b>亚马逊</b>,<b>微软</b>，和<b>Alphabet</b>谷歌——2020年资本支出总体增加了32%。对于在数据中心CPU领域几乎占据垄断地位的英特尔来说，支出的增加应该是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Intel's data center group (DCG) revenue declined 20% year over year to $5.6 billion during the first quarter. It blamed that contraction on a \"challenging\" comparison to its 43% growth a year ago, which benefited from upgrades across the&nbsp;cloud, enterprise, government, and communication sectors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，英特尔第一季度数据中心集团(DCG)收入同比下降20%至56亿美元。该公司将这种收缩归咎于与一年前43%的增长相比“具有挑战性”，而一年前的增长受益于云、企业、政府和通信领域的升级。</blockquote></p><p> But those challenging comparisons could persist throughout 2021 as cloud and data center customers prioritize purchases of other chips, such as&nbsp;<b>NVIDIA</b>'s&nbsp;(NASDAQ:NVDA)&nbsp;high-end GPUs for crunching AI tasks, over Intel's flagship Xeon CPUs. NVIDIA's recent launch of its own&nbsp;data center CPU&nbsp;and its planned&nbsp;takeover of Arm&nbsp;could exacerbate that pressure.</p><p><blockquote>但随着云和数据中心客户优先购买其他芯片，这些具有挑战性的比较可能会持续到2021年，例如<b>英伟达</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）的高端GPU，用于处理人工智能任务，优于英特尔旗舰至强CPU。英伟达最近推出了自己的数据中心CPU，并计划收购Arm，这可能会加剧这种压力。</blockquote></p><p> 4. Unclear plans for its own foundry</p><p><blockquote>四、自有代工厂规划不明确</blockquote></p><p> To resolve its ongoing production issues, Intel will outsource the production of some of its chips to TSMC. But it also plans to accept third-party chip orders at its new Intel Foundry Services division.</p><p><blockquote>为了解决持续的生产问题，英特尔将把部分芯片的生产外包给台积电。但它也计划在其新的英特尔代工服务部门接受第三方芯片订单。</blockquote></p><p> This strategy contradicts itself. Intel still needs TSMC to produce some of its new chips because of&nbsp;the limitations of its existing foundries, yet it's building new plants to manufacture chips for other fabless chipmakers.</p><p><blockquote>这种策略自相矛盾。由于现有代工厂的限制，英特尔仍然需要台积电生产一些新芯片，但它正在建设新工厂为其他无晶圆厂芯片制造商制造芯片。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, Intel would still be temporarily dependent on TSMC, which remains ahead in the process race, while trying to compete against TSMC and<b>Samsung</b>for orders of less advanced chips. The foundry services business will also likely generate lower-margin revenue than its CCG and DCG businesses.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，英特尔仍将暂时依赖在工艺竞赛中保持领先的台积电，同时试图与台积电和<b>三星</b>对于不太先进的芯片订单。铸造服务业务产生的收入也可能低于CCG和DCG业务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Gross margin pressure and reduced buybacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5、毛利率压力和回购减少</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Lastly, Intel's adjusted gross margin -- which dropped 6.1 percentage points year over year to 58.4% during the first quarter -- could remain under pressure as its PC sales decelerate, its data center sales decline, and it expands its lower-margin foundry services business.</p><p><blockquote>最后，随着PC销售放缓、数据中心销售下降以及利润率较低的代工服务业务的扩张，英特尔调整后的毛利率（第一季度同比下降6.1个百分点至58.4%）可能仍面临压力。</blockquote></p><p> Intel also plans to reduce its buybacks to conserve more cash for its expansion efforts. That's a necessary measure, but it will throttle its EPS growth as its gross and operating margins contract.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔还计划减少回购，为扩张工作节省更多现金。这是一项必要的措施，但随着毛利率和营业利润率的收缩，它将抑制其每股收益的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel isn't doomed yet, but it's falling behind better-run chipmakers like AMD, NVIDIA, and TSMC. Intel's new CEO Pat Gelsinger claims 2021 will be a \"pivotal year\" for the company -- but I'd like to see it actually pivot before I can consider it a worthy investment.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔尚未注定失败，但它落后于AMD、英伟达和台积电等运营更好的芯片制造商。英特尔新任首席执行官帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)声称，2021年对公司来说将是“关键的一年”，但我希望看到它真正转向，然后才能认为这是一项值得的投资。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Reasons to Avoid Intel After Its Q1 Earnings Report<blockquote>英特尔发布第一季度收益报告后避开英特尔的5个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Reasons to Avoid Intel After Its Q1 Earnings Report<blockquote>英特尔发布第一季度收益报告后避开英特尔的5个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 09:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The world's top PC and data center CPU maker is losing its edge.</p><p><blockquote>全球顶级PC和数据中心CPU制造商正在失去优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Intel</b>'s&nbsp;stock recently tumbled after the chipmaker posted its first-quarter earnings. Its revenue fell 1% year over year to $19.7 billion, but still beat estimates by $1.75 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔</b>在这家芯片制造商公布第一季度收益后，该公司的股价最近暴跌。其收入同比下降1%至197亿美元，但仍超出预期17.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Its&nbsp;non-GAAP&nbsp;net income declined 6% to $5.7 billion. Its non-GAAP earnings per share, buoyed by buybacks, dipped 1% to $1.39 and cleared expectations by $0.25. Those numbers exclude its NAND business, which will be sold to&nbsp;<b>SK Hynix</b>, and other one-time items.</p><p><blockquote>其非GAAP净利润下降6%至57亿美元。在回购的推动下，其非GAAP每股收益下降1%至1.39美元，比预期高出0.25美元。这些数字不包括其NAND业务，该业务将出售给<b>SK海力士</b>，以及其他一次性项目。</blockquote></p><p> Intel expects its revenue and non-GAAP earnings to decline 10% and 15% year over year, respectively, in the second quarter. Analysts had expected its revenue and earnings to fall 9% and 19%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔预计第二季度营收和非GAAP盈利将同比分别下降10%和15%。分析师此前预计其收入和盈利将分别下降9%和19%。</blockquote></p><p> For the full year, Intel expects its GAAP revenue to dip 1% to $77 billion, and for its non-GAAP revenue to drop 7% to $72.5 billion, which misses the consensus forecast of $72.8 billion. It expects its non-GAAP EPS to decline 13%, compared to gloomier forecasts for a 19% decline.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔预计全年GAAP收入将下降1%至770亿美元，非GAAP收入将下降7%至725亿美元，低于市场普遍预测的728亿美元。该公司预计非GAAP每股收益将下降13%，而较悲观的预测为下降19%。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's first-quarter growth cleared Wall Street's low bar, but its mixed guidance indicated its troubles would persist throughout the year. Intel's stock might look cheap at 13 times forward earnings with a decent forward yield of 2.4%, but it's still not worth buying for five simple reasons.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔第一季度的增长清除了华尔街的低门槛，但其好坏参半的指引表明其麻烦将持续全年。英特尔的股票可能看起来很便宜，预期市盈率为13倍，预期收益率为2.4%，但出于五个简单的原因，它仍然不值得购买。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. PC sales will decelerate after the pandemic ends</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.疫情结束后PC销售将减速</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel's Client Computing Group (CCG) revenue rose 8% year over year to $10.6 billion during the quarter as it sold more CPUs for PCs. Its total PC unit volumes increased 38% year over year, with a 54% jump in notebook volumes offsetting a 4% decline in desktop volumes.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔客户端计算集团(CCG)本季度收入同比增长8%，达到106亿美元，原因是该公司销售了更多PC CPU。其PC总销量同比增长38%，其中笔记本电脑销量增长54%，抵消了台式机销量下降4%的影响。</blockquote></p><p> However, PC sales mainly rose because the pandemic caused more people to buy new systems for remote work, online education, and gaming. That tailwind&nbsp;should fade&nbsp;after the pandemic ends.</p><p><blockquote>然而，PC销量增长主要是因为疫情导致更多人购买用于远程工作、在线教育和游戏的新系统。疫情结束后，这种顺风应该会消退。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. It could lose more market share to AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.它可能会将更多市场份额输给AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel's ongoingchip shortage, which started in 2018 and hasn't been resolved yet, caused many PC makers to buy more chips from its fabless rival&nbsp;<b>AMD</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AMD), which outsources its chip production to&nbsp;<b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:TSM)&nbsp;instead of manufacturing its chips internally.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔持续的芯片短缺始于2018年，尚未解决，导致许多PC制造商从其无晶圆厂竞争对手那里购买更多芯片<b>AMD</b>（纳斯达克：AMD），将其芯片生产外包给<b>台积电</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TSM）而不是在内部制造芯片。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, Intel ceded the desktop and notebook CPU markets to AMD over the past three years.</p><p><blockquote>因此，英特尔在过去三年中将台式机和笔记本CPU市场拱手让给了AMD。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bab2b21309a9664da8b9d5d003dd857\" tg-width=\"1151\" tg-height=\"429\"><span>DATA SOURCE: PASSMARK SOFTWARE.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：PASSMARK软件。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Those declines could continue for the foreseeable future as the pandemic-related tailwinds dissipate and AMD moves further ahead in the \"process race\" to create smaller and more powerful chips with TSMC.</p><p><blockquote>随着与大流行相关的顺风消散，以及AMD在与台积电合作制造更小、更强大芯片的“工艺竞赛”中进一步领先，这些下降可能会在可预见的未来持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Existential threats in the data center market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>三、数据中心市场存在的威胁</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloud capex soared across the world over the past year as data centers upgraded their hardware to cope with more online activities throughout the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年，随着数据中心升级硬件以应对疫情更多的在线活动，全球云资本支出飙升。</blockquote></p><p> For example, the three largest hyper-cloud companies --<b>Amazon</b>,<b>Microsoft</b>, and&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>'s Google -- collectively boosted their capex 32% in 2020. That increased spending should be good news for Intel, which holds a near-monopoly in data center CPUs.</p><p><blockquote>比如三家最大的超云公司——<b>亚马逊</b>,<b>微软</b>，和<b>Alphabet</b>谷歌——2020年资本支出总体增加了32%。对于在数据中心CPU领域几乎占据垄断地位的英特尔来说，支出的增加应该是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Intel's data center group (DCG) revenue declined 20% year over year to $5.6 billion during the first quarter. It blamed that contraction on a \"challenging\" comparison to its 43% growth a year ago, which benefited from upgrades across the&nbsp;cloud, enterprise, government, and communication sectors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，英特尔第一季度数据中心集团(DCG)收入同比下降20%至56亿美元。该公司将这种收缩归咎于与一年前43%的增长相比“具有挑战性”，而一年前的增长受益于云、企业、政府和通信领域的升级。</blockquote></p><p> But those challenging comparisons could persist throughout 2021 as cloud and data center customers prioritize purchases of other chips, such as&nbsp;<b>NVIDIA</b>'s&nbsp;(NASDAQ:NVDA)&nbsp;high-end GPUs for crunching AI tasks, over Intel's flagship Xeon CPUs. NVIDIA's recent launch of its own&nbsp;data center CPU&nbsp;and its planned&nbsp;takeover of Arm&nbsp;could exacerbate that pressure.</p><p><blockquote>但随着云和数据中心客户优先购买其他芯片，这些具有挑战性的比较可能会持续到2021年，例如<b>英伟达</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）的高端GPU，用于处理人工智能任务，优于英特尔旗舰至强CPU。英伟达最近推出了自己的数据中心CPU，并计划收购Arm，这可能会加剧这种压力。</blockquote></p><p> 4. Unclear plans for its own foundry</p><p><blockquote>四、自有代工厂规划不明确</blockquote></p><p> To resolve its ongoing production issues, Intel will outsource the production of some of its chips to TSMC. But it also plans to accept third-party chip orders at its new Intel Foundry Services division.</p><p><blockquote>为了解决持续的生产问题，英特尔将把部分芯片的生产外包给台积电。但它也计划在其新的英特尔代工服务部门接受第三方芯片订单。</blockquote></p><p> This strategy contradicts itself. Intel still needs TSMC to produce some of its new chips because of&nbsp;the limitations of its existing foundries, yet it's building new plants to manufacture chips for other fabless chipmakers.</p><p><blockquote>这种策略自相矛盾。由于现有代工厂的限制，英特尔仍然需要台积电生产一些新芯片，但它正在建设新工厂为其他无晶圆厂芯片制造商制造芯片。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, Intel would still be temporarily dependent on TSMC, which remains ahead in the process race, while trying to compete against TSMC and<b>Samsung</b>for orders of less advanced chips. The foundry services business will also likely generate lower-margin revenue than its CCG and DCG businesses.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，英特尔仍将暂时依赖在工艺竞赛中保持领先的台积电，同时试图与台积电和<b>三星</b>对于不太先进的芯片订单。铸造服务业务产生的收入也可能低于CCG和DCG业务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Gross margin pressure and reduced buybacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5、毛利率压力和回购减少</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Lastly, Intel's adjusted gross margin -- which dropped 6.1 percentage points year over year to 58.4% during the first quarter -- could remain under pressure as its PC sales decelerate, its data center sales decline, and it expands its lower-margin foundry services business.</p><p><blockquote>最后，随着PC销售放缓、数据中心销售下降以及利润率较低的代工服务业务的扩张，英特尔调整后的毛利率（第一季度同比下降6.1个百分点至58.4%）可能仍面临压力。</blockquote></p><p> Intel also plans to reduce its buybacks to conserve more cash for its expansion efforts. That's a necessary measure, but it will throttle its EPS growth as its gross and operating margins contract.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔还计划减少回购，为扩张工作节省更多现金。这是一项必要的措施，但随着毛利率和营业利润率的收缩，它将抑制其每股收益的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel isn't doomed yet, but it's falling behind better-run chipmakers like AMD, NVIDIA, and TSMC. Intel's new CEO Pat Gelsinger claims 2021 will be a \"pivotal year\" for the company -- but I'd like to see it actually pivot before I can consider it a worthy investment.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔尚未注定失败，但它落后于AMD、英伟达和台积电等运营更好的芯片制造商。英特尔新任首席执行官帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)声称，2021年对公司来说将是“关键的一年”，但我希望看到它真正转向，然后才能认为这是一项值得的投资。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/28/5-reasons-to-avoid-intel-after-q1-earnings-report/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/28/5-reasons-to-avoid-intel-after-q1-earnings-report/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146541007","content_text":"The world's top PC and data center CPU maker is losing its edge.\nIntel's stock recently tumbled after the chipmaker posted its first-quarter earnings. Its revenue fell 1% year over year to $19.7 billion, but still beat estimates by $1.75 billion.\nIts non-GAAP net income declined 6% to $5.7 billion. Its non-GAAP earnings per share, buoyed by buybacks, dipped 1% to $1.39 and cleared expectations by $0.25. Those numbers exclude its NAND business, which will be sold to SK Hynix, and other one-time items.\nIntel expects its revenue and non-GAAP earnings to decline 10% and 15% year over year, respectively, in the second quarter. Analysts had expected its revenue and earnings to fall 9% and 19%, respectively.\nFor the full year, Intel expects its GAAP revenue to dip 1% to $77 billion, and for its non-GAAP revenue to drop 7% to $72.5 billion, which misses the consensus forecast of $72.8 billion. It expects its non-GAAP EPS to decline 13%, compared to gloomier forecasts for a 19% decline.\nIntel's first-quarter growth cleared Wall Street's low bar, but its mixed guidance indicated its troubles would persist throughout the year. Intel's stock might look cheap at 13 times forward earnings with a decent forward yield of 2.4%, but it's still not worth buying for five simple reasons.\n1. PC sales will decelerate after the pandemic ends\nIntel's Client Computing Group (CCG) revenue rose 8% year over year to $10.6 billion during the quarter as it sold more CPUs for PCs. Its total PC unit volumes increased 38% year over year, with a 54% jump in notebook volumes offsetting a 4% decline in desktop volumes.\nHowever, PC sales mainly rose because the pandemic caused more people to buy new systems for remote work, online education, and gaming. That tailwind should fade after the pandemic ends.\n2. It could lose more market share to AMD\nIntel's ongoingchip shortage, which started in 2018 and hasn't been resolved yet, caused many PC makers to buy more chips from its fabless rival AMD (NASDAQ:AMD), which outsources its chip production to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) instead of manufacturing its chips internally.\nAs a result, Intel ceded the desktop and notebook CPU markets to AMD over the past three years.\nDATA SOURCE: PASSMARK SOFTWARE.\nThose declines could continue for the foreseeable future as the pandemic-related tailwinds dissipate and AMD moves further ahead in the \"process race\" to create smaller and more powerful chips with TSMC.\n3. Existential threats in the data center market\nCloud capex soared across the world over the past year as data centers upgraded their hardware to cope with more online activities throughout the pandemic.\nFor example, the three largest hyper-cloud companies --Amazon,Microsoft, and Alphabet's Google -- collectively boosted their capex 32% in 2020. That increased spending should be good news for Intel, which holds a near-monopoly in data center CPUs.\nYet Intel's data center group (DCG) revenue declined 20% year over year to $5.6 billion during the first quarter. It blamed that contraction on a \"challenging\" comparison to its 43% growth a year ago, which benefited from upgrades across the cloud, enterprise, government, and communication sectors.\nBut those challenging comparisons could persist throughout 2021 as cloud and data center customers prioritize purchases of other chips, such as NVIDIA's (NASDAQ:NVDA) high-end GPUs for crunching AI tasks, over Intel's flagship Xeon CPUs. NVIDIA's recent launch of its own data center CPU and its planned takeover of Arm could exacerbate that pressure.\n4. Unclear plans for its own foundry\nTo resolve its ongoing production issues, Intel will outsource the production of some of its chips to TSMC. But it also plans to accept third-party chip orders at its new Intel Foundry Services division.\nThis strategy contradicts itself. Intel still needs TSMC to produce some of its new chips because of the limitations of its existing foundries, yet it's building new plants to manufacture chips for other fabless chipmakers.\nIn other words, Intel would still be temporarily dependent on TSMC, which remains ahead in the process race, while trying to compete against TSMC andSamsungfor orders of less advanced chips. The foundry services business will also likely generate lower-margin revenue than its CCG and DCG businesses.\n5. Gross margin pressure and reduced buybacks\nLastly, Intel's adjusted gross margin -- which dropped 6.1 percentage points year over year to 58.4% during the first quarter -- could remain under pressure as its PC sales decelerate, its data center sales decline, and it expands its lower-margin foundry services business.\nIntel also plans to reduce its buybacks to conserve more cash for its expansion efforts. That's a necessary measure, but it will throttle its EPS growth as its gross and operating margins contract.\nThe bottom line\nIntel isn't doomed yet, but it's falling behind better-run chipmakers like AMD, NVIDIA, and TSMC. Intel's new CEO Pat Gelsinger claims 2021 will be a \"pivotal year\" for the company -- but I'd like to see it actually pivot before I can consider it a worthy investment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":376034628,"gmtCreate":1619068611064,"gmtModify":1631886378373,"author":{"id":"3548807569819060","authorId":"3548807569819060","name":"lioneu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164f38de123399655086489cd0d1e35d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548807569819060","authorIdStr":"3548807569819060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T39.SI\">$报业控股(T39.SI)$</a>这股价上上下下，在玩呢？[白眼]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T39.SI\">$报业控股(T39.SI)$</a>这股价上上下下，在玩呢？[白眼]&nbsp;","text":"$报业控股(T39.SI)$这股价上上下下，在玩呢？[白眼]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376034628","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1063,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":378896731,"gmtCreate":1619014196223,"gmtModify":1634289209924,"author":{"id":"3548807569819060","authorId":"3548807569819060","name":"lioneu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164f38de123399655086489cd0d1e35d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548807569819060","authorIdStr":"3548807569819060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"靠，无形的手又开始活动了……不会是又开始新一轮的收割吧[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"靠，无形的手又开始活动了……不会是又开始新一轮的收割吧[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"靠，无形的手又开始活动了……不会是又开始新一轮的收割吧[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378896731","repostId":"1160039334","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":378804209,"gmtCreate":1619013934401,"gmtModify":1631886148968,"author":{"id":"3548807569819060","authorId":"3548807569819060","name":"lioneu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164f38de123399655086489cd0d1e35d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548807569819060","authorIdStr":"3548807569819060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">$哈里伯顿(HAL)$</a>这是怎么了？还让人活吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">$哈里伯顿(HAL)$</a>这是怎么了？还让人活吗？","text":"$哈里伯顿(HAL)$这是怎么了？还让人活吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378804209","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":919,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":371310143,"gmtCreate":1618910044982,"gmtModify":1634289978009,"author":{"id":"3548807569819060","authorId":"3548807569819060","name":"lioneu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164f38de123399655086489cd0d1e35d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548807569819060","authorIdStr":"3548807569819060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;利好消息呀！","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;利好消息呀！","text":"[财迷] 利好消息呀！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371310143","repostId":"1156887926","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":370975942,"gmtCreate":1618547744986,"gmtModify":1631886378411,"author":{"id":"3548807569819060","authorId":"3548807569819060","name":"lioneu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164f38de123399655086489cd0d1e35d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548807569819060","authorIdStr":"3548807569819060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T39.SI\">$报业控股(T39.SI)$</a>什么情况，打鸡血了吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T39.SI\">$报业控股(T39.SI)$</a>什么情况，打鸡血了吗？","text":"$报业控股(T39.SI)$什么情况，打鸡血了吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370975942","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":956,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":347252040,"gmtCreate":1618498081680,"gmtModify":1634292500284,"author":{"id":"3548807569819060","authorId":"3548807569819060","name":"lioneu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164f38de123399655086489cd0d1e35d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548807569819060","authorIdStr":"3548807569819060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"冲啊！[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"冲啊！[开心]&nbsp;","text":"冲啊！[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347252040","repostId":"1108063237","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":347258686,"gmtCreate":1618498029745,"gmtModify":1634292501085,"author":{"id":"3548807569819060","authorId":"3548807569819060","name":"lioneu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164f38de123399655086489cd0d1e35d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548807569819060","authorIdStr":"3548807569819060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"评论是他们的日常工作，不写些辛辣的没人看。写对了一举成名、写错了也没人理会，所以可以乱写[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"评论是他们的日常工作，不写些辛辣的没人看。写对了一举成名、写错了也没人理会，所以可以乱写[得意]&nbsp;","text":"评论是他们的日常工作，不写些辛辣的没人看。写对了一举成名、写错了也没人理会，所以可以乱写[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347258686","repostId":"2127017550","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2127017550","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1618483324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2127017550?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-15 18:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街三大投行警告美股回调，发生了什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2127017550","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"标普500指数正处于纪录高位附近，但华尔街在短短四天的时间内已经有三家大投行就潜在的回调发出警告——为什么？先是摩根士丹利向来是美股大多头的大摩首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊在上周末表示，虽然标普500","content":"<p>标普500指数正处于纪录高位附近，但华尔街在短短四天的时间内已经有三家大投行就潜在的回调发出警告——为什么？</p><p><b>先是摩根士丹利</b></p><p>向来是美股大多头的大摩首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊在上周末表示，虽然标普500指数在持续创新高，“但在表面之下，支撑大盘的股票类别出现了明显的变化，这可能是在告诉我们一些关于经济重启的、不易为人所觉察的事情。”</p><p>威尔逊注意到了四个现象，这是其中之一。除此之外，罗素2000小盘股在3月12日触顶之后，已经落后标普500指数8%；大摩过去一年一直在推荐的部分周期股表现开始变得低迷，而防御性板块表现相对比较好；还有就是，IPO和SPAC指数都有20%幅度的落后，年内已经转跌。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05419a3bd0955b57f22d3682f818bcc\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"733\"><span>标普500指数与罗素2000小盘股走势对比</span></p><p><b>这些现象说明了什么？威尔逊认为，小盘股和周期股近期的弱势，可能是一个潜在的早期警告信号，即经济体的实际重启可能比人们预期的要困难得多。</b>在过去一年，小盘股、周期股涨势惊人，是因为投资者提前在这些股票的价格中计入了经济重启预期；然而，当重启真正来临的时候，投资者可能会遭遇到执行方面的风险，还可能会有一些意想不到的情况出现。</p><p><b>他又进一步指出，虽然政策制定者通过货币宽松和财政刺激为经济体提供了巨大的支撑，但是疫情封锁却冲击、甚至摧毁了供应。</b>这也是为什么，从原材料到物流、到劳动力的所有领域，我们都看到了供应短缺的迹象。这可能会影响到Q1财报季，尤其是在成本和利润率方面，还有Q2的前瞻指引。</p><p>至于IPO和SPAC的降温，也表明美联储提供的剩余流动性已经被大量供应所淹没。从该策略师的经验来看，这往往是更广泛股票市场即将面临艰难时刻的领先指标。</p><p><b>紧接着是美国银行</b></p><p>本周三，该行首席量化策略师萨维塔·苏拉曼尼亚向客户发送了一份题为《抑制热情的五大理由》的报告。</p><p>这位策略师先是提出了一个问题：在美国银行经济学家最近上调了美国GDP预期之后，在多家企业提供了乐观的业绩指引、从而促使美国银行上调了2021年EPS预期之后，该行还是没有改变标普500指数到年底3800点的目标价？甚至还比当前的价格水平低逾300点？</p><p>“鉴于市场情绪逐渐变得狂热、高企的估值、刺激措施已达到峰值，我们认为市场已经过度计入了利好消息。<b>我们仍然看好经济，而非标普500指数。</b>”报告称。</p><p>该行列出了五大原因，包括：1、美国银行的卖方指标距离达到“极度兴奋”领域已经不到1个百分点；2、标普500指数的估值意味着未来十年的收益回报将极低（年化2%）；3、在历史上75%的时间，标普500指数12个月收益回报较历史均值高出2+标准差，接下来都会下跌；4、公允价值模型显示标普500指数为3635点；5、股票风险溢价跌破400个基点，这是一个逆势负面信号。</p><p><b>最后是德意志银行</b></p><p>该行首席股票策略师宾基·查德哈称，从历史上看，股票与ISM等周期性宏观增长指标紧密相关，相关性可达73%。通常，以ISM为指标的增长都会在衰退终结之后一年左右（更准确地说是10-11个月）触顶。</p><p>因此，德银预计在“非常近的近期”，股票将会继续受到加速的宏观增长支撑，系统性策略和企业回购还将继续买入股票，推动股票走高；然而，<b>该行预计，在未来3个月，随着增长触顶，美股将会出现重大的调整（-6%至-10%的回调）。</b></p><p>从统计数据来看，在增长触顶时，标普500指数的跌幅中值为-8.4%；即使是ISM趋平而不是下滑，标普500指数也有-5.9%的中值跌幅。而至于下跌的时机，通常在ISM触顶两周后，标普500指数会出现抛售，持续时间中值为6周。</p><p>唯一的好消息是，德银认为，在调整之后，美股还会回升，之后的风险主要都是围绕通胀和美联储对此的回应。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街三大投行警告美股回调，发生了什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-15 18:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>标普500指数正处于纪录高位附近，但华尔街在短短四天的时间内已经有三家大投行就潜在的回调发出警告——为什么？</p><p><b>先是摩根士丹利</b></p><p>向来是美股大多头的大摩首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊在上周末表示，虽然标普500指数在持续创新高，“但在表面之下，支撑大盘的股票类别出现了明显的变化，这可能是在告诉我们一些关于经济重启的、不易为人所觉察的事情。”</p><p>威尔逊注意到了四个现象，这是其中之一。除此之外，罗素2000小盘股在3月12日触顶之后，已经落后标普500指数8%；大摩过去一年一直在推荐的部分周期股表现开始变得低迷，而防御性板块表现相对比较好；还有就是，IPO和SPAC指数都有20%幅度的落后，年内已经转跌。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05419a3bd0955b57f22d3682f818bcc\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"733\"><span>标普500指数与罗素2000小盘股走势对比</span></p><p><b>这些现象说明了什么？威尔逊认为，小盘股和周期股近期的弱势，可能是一个潜在的早期警告信号，即经济体的实际重启可能比人们预期的要困难得多。</b>在过去一年，小盘股、周期股涨势惊人，是因为投资者提前在这些股票的价格中计入了经济重启预期；然而，当重启真正来临的时候，投资者可能会遭遇到执行方面的风险，还可能会有一些意想不到的情况出现。</p><p><b>他又进一步指出，虽然政策制定者通过货币宽松和财政刺激为经济体提供了巨大的支撑，但是疫情封锁却冲击、甚至摧毁了供应。</b>这也是为什么，从原材料到物流、到劳动力的所有领域，我们都看到了供应短缺的迹象。这可能会影响到Q1财报季，尤其是在成本和利润率方面，还有Q2的前瞻指引。</p><p>至于IPO和SPAC的降温，也表明美联储提供的剩余流动性已经被大量供应所淹没。从该策略师的经验来看，这往往是更广泛股票市场即将面临艰难时刻的领先指标。</p><p><b>紧接着是美国银行</b></p><p>本周三，该行首席量化策略师萨维塔·苏拉曼尼亚向客户发送了一份题为《抑制热情的五大理由》的报告。</p><p>这位策略师先是提出了一个问题：在美国银行经济学家最近上调了美国GDP预期之后，在多家企业提供了乐观的业绩指引、从而促使美国银行上调了2021年EPS预期之后，该行还是没有改变标普500指数到年底3800点的目标价？甚至还比当前的价格水平低逾300点？</p><p>“鉴于市场情绪逐渐变得狂热、高企的估值、刺激措施已达到峰值，我们认为市场已经过度计入了利好消息。<b>我们仍然看好经济，而非标普500指数。</b>”报告称。</p><p>该行列出了五大原因，包括：1、美国银行的卖方指标距离达到“极度兴奋”领域已经不到1个百分点；2、标普500指数的估值意味着未来十年的收益回报将极低（年化2%）；3、在历史上75%的时间，标普500指数12个月收益回报较历史均值高出2+标准差，接下来都会下跌；4、公允价值模型显示标普500指数为3635点；5、股票风险溢价跌破400个基点，这是一个逆势负面信号。</p><p><b>最后是德意志银行</b></p><p>该行首席股票策略师宾基·查德哈称，从历史上看，股票与ISM等周期性宏观增长指标紧密相关，相关性可达73%。通常，以ISM为指标的增长都会在衰退终结之后一年左右（更准确地说是10-11个月）触顶。</p><p>因此，德银预计在“非常近的近期”，股票将会继续受到加速的宏观增长支撑，系统性策略和企业回购还将继续买入股票，推动股票走高；然而，<b>该行预计，在未来3个月，随着增长触顶，美股将会出现重大的调整（-6%至-10%的回调）。</b></p><p>从统计数据来看，在增长触顶时，标普500指数的跌幅中值为-8.4%；即使是ISM趋平而不是下滑，标普500指数也有-5.9%的中值跌幅。而至于下跌的时机，通常在ISM触顶两周后，标普500指数会出现抛售，持续时间中值为6周。</p><p>唯一的好消息是，德银认为，在调整之后，美股还会回升，之后的风险主要都是围绕通胀和美联储对此的回应。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf9ac23bac84c629134c18540a11264a","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 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Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2127017550","content_text":"标普500指数正处于纪录高位附近，但华尔街在短短四天的时间内已经有三家大投行就潜在的回调发出警告——为什么？先是摩根士丹利向来是美股大多头的大摩首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊在上周末表示，虽然标普500指数在持续创新高，“但在表面之下，支撑大盘的股票类别出现了明显的变化，这可能是在告诉我们一些关于经济重启的、不易为人所觉察的事情。”威尔逊注意到了四个现象，这是其中之一。除此之外，罗素2000小盘股在3月12日触顶之后，已经落后标普500指数8%；大摩过去一年一直在推荐的部分周期股表现开始变得低迷，而防御性板块表现相对比较好；还有就是，IPO和SPAC指数都有20%幅度的落后，年内已经转跌。标普500指数与罗素2000小盘股走势对比这些现象说明了什么？威尔逊认为，小盘股和周期股近期的弱势，可能是一个潜在的早期警告信号，即经济体的实际重启可能比人们预期的要困难得多。在过去一年，小盘股、周期股涨势惊人，是因为投资者提前在这些股票的价格中计入了经济重启预期；然而，当重启真正来临的时候，投资者可能会遭遇到执行方面的风险，还可能会有一些意想不到的情况出现。他又进一步指出，虽然政策制定者通过货币宽松和财政刺激为经济体提供了巨大的支撑，但是疫情封锁却冲击、甚至摧毁了供应。这也是为什么，从原材料到物流、到劳动力的所有领域，我们都看到了供应短缺的迹象。这可能会影响到Q1财报季，尤其是在成本和利润率方面，还有Q2的前瞻指引。至于IPO和SPAC的降温，也表明美联储提供的剩余流动性已经被大量供应所淹没。从该策略师的经验来看，这往往是更广泛股票市场即将面临艰难时刻的领先指标。紧接着是美国银行本周三，该行首席量化策略师萨维塔·苏拉曼尼亚向客户发送了一份题为《抑制热情的五大理由》的报告。这位策略师先是提出了一个问题：在美国银行经济学家最近上调了美国GDP预期之后，在多家企业提供了乐观的业绩指引、从而促使美国银行上调了2021年EPS预期之后，该行还是没有改变标普500指数到年底3800点的目标价？甚至还比当前的价格水平低逾300点？“鉴于市场情绪逐渐变得狂热、高企的估值、刺激措施已达到峰值，我们认为市场已经过度计入了利好消息。我们仍然看好经济，而非标普500指数。”报告称。该行列出了五大原因，包括：1、美国银行的卖方指标距离达到“极度兴奋”领域已经不到1个百分点；2、标普500指数的估值意味着未来十年的收益回报将极低（年化2%）；3、在历史上75%的时间，标普500指数12个月收益回报较历史均值高出2+标准差，接下来都会下跌；4、公允价值模型显示标普500指数为3635点；5、股票风险溢价跌破400个基点，这是一个逆势负面信号。最后是德意志银行该行首席股票策略师宾基·查德哈称，从历史上看，股票与ISM等周期性宏观增长指标紧密相关，相关性可达73%。通常，以ISM为指标的增长都会在衰退终结之后一年左右（更准确地说是10-11个月）触顶。因此，德银预计在“非常近的近期”，股票将会继续受到加速的宏观增长支撑，系统性策略和企业回购还将继续买入股票，推动股票走高；然而，该行预计，在未来3个月，随着增长触顶，美股将会出现重大的调整（-6%至-10%的回调）。从统计数据来看，在增长触顶时，标普500指数的跌幅中值为-8.4%；即使是ISM趋平而不是下滑，标普500指数也有-5.9%的中值跌幅。而至于下跌的时机，通常在ISM触顶两周后，标普500指数会出现抛售，持续时间中值为6周。唯一的好消息是，德银认为，在调整之后，美股还会回升，之后的风险主要都是围绕通胀和美联储对此的回应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":344531623,"gmtCreate":1618414011362,"gmtModify":1634293086219,"author":{"id":"3548807569819060","authorId":"3548807569819060","name":"lioneu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164f38de123399655086489cd0d1e35d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548807569819060","authorIdStr":"3548807569819060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"RIP","listText":"RIP","text":"RIP","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344531623","repostId":"1190908435","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":197163952,"gmtCreate":1621433949676,"gmtModify":1634189179069,"author":{"id":"3548807569819060","authorId":"3548807569819060","name":"lioneu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164f38de123399655086489cd0d1e35d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548807569819060","idStr":"3548807569819060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Inc.(TLRY)$继续跌，刺激呀[愤怒]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196088961","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":347252040,"gmtCreate":1618498081680,"gmtModify":1634292500284,"author":{"id":"3548807569819060","authorId":"3548807569819060","name":"lioneu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164f38de123399655086489cd0d1e35d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548807569819060","idStr":"3548807569819060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"冲啊！[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"冲啊！[开心]&nbsp;","text":"冲啊！[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347252040","repostId":"1108063237","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":347258686,"gmtCreate":1618498029745,"gmtModify":1634292501085,"author":{"id":"3548807569819060","authorId":"3548807569819060","name":"lioneu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164f38de123399655086489cd0d1e35d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548807569819060","idStr":"3548807569819060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"评论是他们的日常工作，不写些辛辣的没人看。写对了一举成名、写错了也没人理会，所以可以乱写[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"评论是他们的日常工作，不写些辛辣的没人看。写对了一举成名、写错了也没人理会，所以可以乱写[得意]&nbsp;","text":"评论是他们的日常工作，不写些辛辣的没人看。写对了一举成名、写错了也没人理会，所以可以乱写[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347258686","repostId":"2127017550","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2127017550","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1618483324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2127017550?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-15 18:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街三大投行警告美股回调，发生了什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2127017550","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"标普500指数正处于纪录高位附近，但华尔街在短短四天的时间内已经有三家大投行就潜在的回调发出警告——为什么？先是摩根士丹利向来是美股大多头的大摩首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊在上周末表示，虽然标普500","content":"<p>标普500指数正处于纪录高位附近，但华尔街在短短四天的时间内已经有三家大投行就潜在的回调发出警告——为什么？</p><p><b>先是摩根士丹利</b></p><p>向来是美股大多头的大摩首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊在上周末表示，虽然标普500指数在持续创新高，“但在表面之下，支撑大盘的股票类别出现了明显的变化，这可能是在告诉我们一些关于经济重启的、不易为人所觉察的事情。”</p><p>威尔逊注意到了四个现象，这是其中之一。除此之外，罗素2000小盘股在3月12日触顶之后，已经落后标普500指数8%；大摩过去一年一直在推荐的部分周期股表现开始变得低迷，而防御性板块表现相对比较好；还有就是，IPO和SPAC指数都有20%幅度的落后，年内已经转跌。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05419a3bd0955b57f22d3682f818bcc\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"733\"><span>标普500指数与罗素2000小盘股走势对比</span></p><p><b>这些现象说明了什么？威尔逊认为，小盘股和周期股近期的弱势，可能是一个潜在的早期警告信号，即经济体的实际重启可能比人们预期的要困难得多。</b>在过去一年，小盘股、周期股涨势惊人，是因为投资者提前在这些股票的价格中计入了经济重启预期；然而，当重启真正来临的时候，投资者可能会遭遇到执行方面的风险，还可能会有一些意想不到的情况出现。</p><p><b>他又进一步指出，虽然政策制定者通过货币宽松和财政刺激为经济体提供了巨大的支撑，但是疫情封锁却冲击、甚至摧毁了供应。</b>这也是为什么，从原材料到物流、到劳动力的所有领域，我们都看到了供应短缺的迹象。这可能会影响到Q1财报季，尤其是在成本和利润率方面，还有Q2的前瞻指引。</p><p>至于IPO和SPAC的降温，也表明美联储提供的剩余流动性已经被大量供应所淹没。从该策略师的经验来看，这往往是更广泛股票市场即将面临艰难时刻的领先指标。</p><p><b>紧接着是美国银行</b></p><p>本周三，该行首席量化策略师萨维塔·苏拉曼尼亚向客户发送了一份题为《抑制热情的五大理由》的报告。</p><p>这位策略师先是提出了一个问题：在美国银行经济学家最近上调了美国GDP预期之后，在多家企业提供了乐观的业绩指引、从而促使美国银行上调了2021年EPS预期之后，该行还是没有改变标普500指数到年底3800点的目标价？甚至还比当前的价格水平低逾300点？</p><p>“鉴于市场情绪逐渐变得狂热、高企的估值、刺激措施已达到峰值，我们认为市场已经过度计入了利好消息。<b>我们仍然看好经济，而非标普500指数。</b>”报告称。</p><p>该行列出了五大原因，包括：1、美国银行的卖方指标距离达到“极度兴奋”领域已经不到1个百分点；2、标普500指数的估值意味着未来十年的收益回报将极低（年化2%）；3、在历史上75%的时间，标普500指数12个月收益回报较历史均值高出2+标准差，接下来都会下跌；4、公允价值模型显示标普500指数为3635点；5、股票风险溢价跌破400个基点，这是一个逆势负面信号。</p><p><b>最后是德意志银行</b></p><p>该行首席股票策略师宾基·查德哈称，从历史上看，股票与ISM等周期性宏观增长指标紧密相关，相关性可达73%。通常，以ISM为指标的增长都会在衰退终结之后一年左右（更准确地说是10-11个月）触顶。</p><p>因此，德银预计在“非常近的近期”，股票将会继续受到加速的宏观增长支撑，系统性策略和企业回购还将继续买入股票，推动股票走高；然而，<b>该行预计，在未来3个月，随着增长触顶，美股将会出现重大的调整（-6%至-10%的回调）。</b></p><p>从统计数据来看，在增长触顶时，标普500指数的跌幅中值为-8.4%；即使是ISM趋平而不是下滑，标普500指数也有-5.9%的中值跌幅。而至于下跌的时机，通常在ISM触顶两周后，标普500指数会出现抛售，持续时间中值为6周。</p><p>唯一的好消息是，德银认为，在调整之后，美股还会回升，之后的风险主要都是围绕通胀和美联储对此的回应。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街三大投行警告美股回调，发生了什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-15 18:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>标普500指数正处于纪录高位附近，但华尔街在短短四天的时间内已经有三家大投行就潜在的回调发出警告——为什么？</p><p><b>先是摩根士丹利</b></p><p>向来是美股大多头的大摩首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊在上周末表示，虽然标普500指数在持续创新高，“但在表面之下，支撑大盘的股票类别出现了明显的变化，这可能是在告诉我们一些关于经济重启的、不易为人所觉察的事情。”</p><p>威尔逊注意到了四个现象，这是其中之一。除此之外，罗素2000小盘股在3月12日触顶之后，已经落后标普500指数8%；大摩过去一年一直在推荐的部分周期股表现开始变得低迷，而防御性板块表现相对比较好；还有就是，IPO和SPAC指数都有20%幅度的落后，年内已经转跌。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05419a3bd0955b57f22d3682f818bcc\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"733\"><span>标普500指数与罗素2000小盘股走势对比</span></p><p><b>这些现象说明了什么？威尔逊认为，小盘股和周期股近期的弱势，可能是一个潜在的早期警告信号，即经济体的实际重启可能比人们预期的要困难得多。</b>在过去一年，小盘股、周期股涨势惊人，是因为投资者提前在这些股票的价格中计入了经济重启预期；然而，当重启真正来临的时候，投资者可能会遭遇到执行方面的风险，还可能会有一些意想不到的情况出现。</p><p><b>他又进一步指出，虽然政策制定者通过货币宽松和财政刺激为经济体提供了巨大的支撑，但是疫情封锁却冲击、甚至摧毁了供应。</b>这也是为什么，从原材料到物流、到劳动力的所有领域，我们都看到了供应短缺的迹象。这可能会影响到Q1财报季，尤其是在成本和利润率方面，还有Q2的前瞻指引。</p><p>至于IPO和SPAC的降温，也表明美联储提供的剩余流动性已经被大量供应所淹没。从该策略师的经验来看，这往往是更广泛股票市场即将面临艰难时刻的领先指标。</p><p><b>紧接着是美国银行</b></p><p>本周三，该行首席量化策略师萨维塔·苏拉曼尼亚向客户发送了一份题为《抑制热情的五大理由》的报告。</p><p>这位策略师先是提出了一个问题：在美国银行经济学家最近上调了美国GDP预期之后，在多家企业提供了乐观的业绩指引、从而促使美国银行上调了2021年EPS预期之后，该行还是没有改变标普500指数到年底3800点的目标价？甚至还比当前的价格水平低逾300点？</p><p>“鉴于市场情绪逐渐变得狂热、高企的估值、刺激措施已达到峰值，我们认为市场已经过度计入了利好消息。<b>我们仍然看好经济，而非标普500指数。</b>”报告称。</p><p>该行列出了五大原因，包括：1、美国银行的卖方指标距离达到“极度兴奋”领域已经不到1个百分点；2、标普500指数的估值意味着未来十年的收益回报将极低（年化2%）；3、在历史上75%的时间，标普500指数12个月收益回报较历史均值高出2+标准差，接下来都会下跌；4、公允价值模型显示标普500指数为3635点；5、股票风险溢价跌破400个基点，这是一个逆势负面信号。</p><p><b>最后是德意志银行</b></p><p>该行首席股票策略师宾基·查德哈称，从历史上看，股票与ISM等周期性宏观增长指标紧密相关，相关性可达73%。通常，以ISM为指标的增长都会在衰退终结之后一年左右（更准确地说是10-11个月）触顶。</p><p>因此，德银预计在“非常近的近期”，股票将会继续受到加速的宏观增长支撑，系统性策略和企业回购还将继续买入股票，推动股票走高；然而，<b>该行预计，在未来3个月，随着增长触顶，美股将会出现重大的调整（-6%至-10%的回调）。</b></p><p>从统计数据来看，在增长触顶时，标普500指数的跌幅中值为-8.4%；即使是ISM趋平而不是下滑，标普500指数也有-5.9%的中值跌幅。而至于下跌的时机，通常在ISM触顶两周后，标普500指数会出现抛售，持续时间中值为6周。</p><p>唯一的好消息是，德银认为，在调整之后，美股还会回升，之后的风险主要都是围绕通胀和美联储对此的回应。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf9ac23bac84c629134c18540a11264a","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2127017550","content_text":"标普500指数正处于纪录高位附近，但华尔街在短短四天的时间内已经有三家大投行就潜在的回调发出警告——为什么？先是摩根士丹利向来是美股大多头的大摩首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊在上周末表示，虽然标普500指数在持续创新高，“但在表面之下，支撑大盘的股票类别出现了明显的变化，这可能是在告诉我们一些关于经济重启的、不易为人所觉察的事情。”威尔逊注意到了四个现象，这是其中之一。除此之外，罗素2000小盘股在3月12日触顶之后，已经落后标普500指数8%；大摩过去一年一直在推荐的部分周期股表现开始变得低迷，而防御性板块表现相对比较好；还有就是，IPO和SPAC指数都有20%幅度的落后，年内已经转跌。标普500指数与罗素2000小盘股走势对比这些现象说明了什么？威尔逊认为，小盘股和周期股近期的弱势，可能是一个潜在的早期警告信号，即经济体的实际重启可能比人们预期的要困难得多。在过去一年，小盘股、周期股涨势惊人，是因为投资者提前在这些股票的价格中计入了经济重启预期；然而，当重启真正来临的时候，投资者可能会遭遇到执行方面的风险，还可能会有一些意想不到的情况出现。他又进一步指出，虽然政策制定者通过货币宽松和财政刺激为经济体提供了巨大的支撑，但是疫情封锁却冲击、甚至摧毁了供应。这也是为什么，从原材料到物流、到劳动力的所有领域，我们都看到了供应短缺的迹象。这可能会影响到Q1财报季，尤其是在成本和利润率方面，还有Q2的前瞻指引。至于IPO和SPAC的降温，也表明美联储提供的剩余流动性已经被大量供应所淹没。从该策略师的经验来看，这往往是更广泛股票市场即将面临艰难时刻的领先指标。紧接着是美国银行本周三，该行首席量化策略师萨维塔·苏拉曼尼亚向客户发送了一份题为《抑制热情的五大理由》的报告。这位策略师先是提出了一个问题：在美国银行经济学家最近上调了美国GDP预期之后，在多家企业提供了乐观的业绩指引、从而促使美国银行上调了2021年EPS预期之后，该行还是没有改变标普500指数到年底3800点的目标价？甚至还比当前的价格水平低逾300点？“鉴于市场情绪逐渐变得狂热、高企的估值、刺激措施已达到峰值，我们认为市场已经过度计入了利好消息。我们仍然看好经济，而非标普500指数。”报告称。该行列出了五大原因，包括：1、美国银行的卖方指标距离达到“极度兴奋”领域已经不到1个百分点；2、标普500指数的估值意味着未来十年的收益回报将极低（年化2%）；3、在历史上75%的时间，标普500指数12个月收益回报较历史均值高出2+标准差，接下来都会下跌；4、公允价值模型显示标普500指数为3635点；5、股票风险溢价跌破400个基点，这是一个逆势负面信号。最后是德意志银行该行首席股票策略师宾基·查德哈称，从历史上看，股票与ISM等周期性宏观增长指标紧密相关，相关性可达73%。通常，以ISM为指标的增长都会在衰退终结之后一年左右（更准确地说是10-11个月）触顶。因此，德银预计在“非常近的近期”，股票将会继续受到加速的宏观增长支撑，系统性策略和企业回购还将继续买入股票，推动股票走高；然而，该行预计，在未来3个月，随着增长触顶，美股将会出现重大的调整（-6%至-10%的回调）。从统计数据来看，在增长触顶时，标普500指数的跌幅中值为-8.4%；即使是ISM趋平而不是下滑，标普500指数也有-5.9%的中值跌幅。而至于下跌的时机，通常在ISM触顶两周后，标普500指数会出现抛售，持续时间中值为6周。唯一的好消息是，德银认为，在调整之后，美股还会回升，之后的风险主要都是围绕通胀和美联储对此的回应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}