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0勋章

2021-06-16

Comment and like

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2021-06-27

Please like and share

Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>

2021-08-10

Whattt

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2021-07-03

Please like and comment!Thank you!

Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood的IPO可能是股市已见顶的迹象</blockquote>

2021-06-09

Pls like and comment

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2021-06-05

Good

U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>未来一周的美国IPO：多元化的8次IPO中的数字支付、心理健康服务等</blockquote>

2021-04-30

Please like and comment my post please!

JPMorgan development arm seeks to fund vaccine supply chain<blockquote>摩根大通开发部门寻求为疫苗供应链提供资金</blockquote>

2021-06-27

Oh dear, another fall in price?Please like and comment!

Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote>

2021-06-21

Pls like and comment :) make this the top!

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2021-06-16

Like and comment pls

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But not every","content":"<p><b>(CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>Microsoft is rolling out its first major Windows update in six years. But not everyone will be able to get it right away.</p><p><blockquote><b>（CNN商业）——</b>微软正在推出六年来的首次重大Windows更新。但不是每个人都能马上得到它。</blockquote></p><p> Starting Tuesday, Windows 11 will be available as a free download to existing Windows users depending on the hardware and age of their PC device.Microsoft&nbsp;(MSFT)&nbsp;previously&nbsp;said&nbsp;its \"phased and measured\" approach to introducing the new operating system will begin with Windows 10 PCs and PCs that come preloaded with Windows. Users will be notified when they're eligible for the update from now through mid-2022.</p><p><blockquote>从周二开始，Windows 11将向现有Windows用户免费下载，具体取决于他们PC设备的硬件和年龄。微软（MSFT）此前表示，其推出新操作系统的“分阶段和有分寸”的方法将从Windows 10个人电脑和预装Windows的个人电脑开始。从现在到2022年年中，当用户有资格获得更新时，他们将收到通知。</blockquote></p><p> While the update isn't quite the substantial change from Windows 8 to Windows 10 that came out in 2015, Windows 11 features a handful of notable design changes, including a new interface that is intended to bring \"a sense of calm and ease.\" A new Start menu shows recently opened files, regardless of which device was used. And a new personalized Widgets feed, powered by artificial intelligence, promises to provide a faster way to access apps.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这次更新并不是从2015年推出的Windows 8到Windows 10的实质性变化，但Windows 11有一些值得注意的设计变化，包括旨在带来“平静和轻松的感觉”的新界面。新的开始菜单显示最近打开的文件，无论使用的是哪种设备。由人工智能驱动的新个性化小部件feed有望提供一种更快的访问应用程序的方式。</blockquote></p><p> Other updates are geared towardproviding more flexibility, such as more multitasking tools, support for Android mobile apps in its new app store, and an integration with Microsoft Teams, its workplace chat and videoconferencing app.</p><p><blockquote>其他更新旨在提供更大的灵活性，例如更多的多任务处理工具、新应用商店中对Android移动应用程序的支持，以及与微软团队（其工作场所聊天和视频会议应用程序）的集成。</blockquote></p><p> Unlike&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;(APLE), which unveils a new operating system for its Mac computers each year,Microsoft&nbsp;(MSFT)&nbsp;takes a staggered approach.</p><p><blockquote>与每年为其Mac电脑推出新操作系统的苹果(APLE)不同，微软(MSFT)采取了交错的方式。</blockquote></p><p> Geoff Blaber, CEO of market research firm CCS Insight, said the latest update won't be \"revolutionary,\" but he believes it'll do enough to please its massive user base. (Windows 10 runs on about&nbsp;1.3 billion devices worldwide, according to Microsoft.)</p><p><blockquote>市场研究公司CCS Insight的首席执行官Geoff Blaber表示，最新的更新不会是“革命性的”，但他相信它足以取悦其庞大的用户群。（根据微软的数据，Windows 10在全球约13亿台设备上运行。）</blockquote></p><p> \"Windows 11 is an iterative release that pinpoints where Windows needs greater ambition rather than introducing the sweeping changes seen with its predecessor,\" he said. \"Microsoft is making adjustments to areas that have potential to move the needle on user experience, engagement and the ever-expanding reach of Office 365 apps.\"</p><p><blockquote>他说：“Windows 11是一个迭代版本，它指出了Windows需要更大雄心的地方，而不是引入其前身那样的彻底变化。”“微软正在对有可能改变用户体验、参与度和Office 365应用不断扩大的覆盖范围的领域进行调整。”</blockquote></p><p> It could also increase hardware sales as it gets closer to&nbsp;the end of Windows 10 support&nbsp;in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>随着Windows 10支持在2025年结束，它还可能增加硬件销量。</blockquote></p><p> At a livestreamed media event last month, Microsoft also showed off&nbsp;updates to its Surface line&nbsp;that'll ship with Windows 11. Its flagship announcement was a $1,599&nbsp;Surface Laptop Studio&nbsp;that can change from laptop mode to a position better for streaming TV shows and another for drawing or sketching. The device, which took nearly five years to develop, was designed specifically alongside the development of Windows 11.</p><p><blockquote>在上个月的一次直播媒体活动中，微软还展示了将搭载Windows 11的Surface系列的更新。它的旗舰产品是一款售价1599美元的Surface Laptop Studio，可以从笔记本电脑模式切换到更适合流媒体电视节目的位置，以及另一个适合绘画或素描的位置。这款设备花了近五年时间开发，是专门为配合Windows 11的开发而设计的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft begins rollout of Windows 11<blockquote>微软开始推出Windows 11</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft begins rollout of Windows 11<blockquote>微软开始推出Windows 11</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-06 10:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>(CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>Microsoft is rolling out its first major Windows update in six years. But not everyone will be able to get it right away.</p><p><blockquote><b>（CNN商业）——</b>微软正在推出六年来的首次重大Windows更新。但不是每个人都能马上得到它。</blockquote></p><p> Starting Tuesday, Windows 11 will be available as a free download to existing Windows users depending on the hardware and age of their PC device.Microsoft&nbsp;(MSFT)&nbsp;previously&nbsp;said&nbsp;its \"phased and measured\" approach to introducing the new operating system will begin with Windows 10 PCs and PCs that come preloaded with Windows. Users will be notified when they're eligible for the update from now through mid-2022.</p><p><blockquote>从周二开始，Windows 11将向现有Windows用户免费下载，具体取决于他们PC设备的硬件和年龄。微软（MSFT）此前表示，其推出新操作系统的“分阶段和有分寸”的方法将从Windows 10个人电脑和预装Windows的个人电脑开始。从现在到2022年年中，当用户有资格获得更新时，他们将收到通知。</blockquote></p><p> While the update isn't quite the substantial change from Windows 8 to Windows 10 that came out in 2015, Windows 11 features a handful of notable design changes, including a new interface that is intended to bring \"a sense of calm and ease.\" A new Start menu shows recently opened files, regardless of which device was used. And a new personalized Widgets feed, powered by artificial intelligence, promises to provide a faster way to access apps.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这次更新并不是从2015年推出的Windows 8到Windows 10的实质性变化，但Windows 11有一些值得注意的设计变化，包括旨在带来“平静和轻松的感觉”的新界面。新的开始菜单显示最近打开的文件，无论使用的是哪种设备。由人工智能驱动的新个性化小部件feed有望提供一种更快的访问应用程序的方式。</blockquote></p><p> Other updates are geared towardproviding more flexibility, such as more multitasking tools, support for Android mobile apps in its new app store, and an integration with Microsoft Teams, its workplace chat and videoconferencing app.</p><p><blockquote>其他更新旨在提供更大的灵活性，例如更多的多任务处理工具、新应用商店中对Android移动应用程序的支持，以及与微软团队（其工作场所聊天和视频会议应用程序）的集成。</blockquote></p><p> Unlike&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;(APLE), which unveils a new operating system for its Mac computers each year,Microsoft&nbsp;(MSFT)&nbsp;takes a staggered approach.</p><p><blockquote>与每年为其Mac电脑推出新操作系统的苹果(APLE)不同，微软(MSFT)采取了交错的方式。</blockquote></p><p> Geoff Blaber, CEO of market research firm CCS Insight, said the latest update won't be \"revolutionary,\" but he believes it'll do enough to please its massive user base. (Windows 10 runs on about&nbsp;1.3 billion devices worldwide, according to Microsoft.)</p><p><blockquote>市场研究公司CCS Insight的首席执行官Geoff Blaber表示，最新的更新不会是“革命性的”，但他相信它足以取悦其庞大的用户群。（根据微软的数据，Windows 10在全球约13亿台设备上运行。）</blockquote></p><p> \"Windows 11 is an iterative release that pinpoints where Windows needs greater ambition rather than introducing the sweeping changes seen with its predecessor,\" he said. \"Microsoft is making adjustments to areas that have potential to move the needle on user experience, engagement and the ever-expanding reach of Office 365 apps.\"</p><p><blockquote>他说：“Windows 11是一个迭代版本，它指出了Windows需要更大雄心的地方，而不是引入其前身那样的彻底变化。”“微软正在对有可能改变用户体验、参与度和Office 365应用不断扩大的覆盖范围的领域进行调整。”</blockquote></p><p> It could also increase hardware sales as it gets closer to&nbsp;the end of Windows 10 support&nbsp;in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>随着Windows 10支持在2025年结束，它还可能增加硬件销量。</blockquote></p><p> At a livestreamed media event last month, Microsoft also showed off&nbsp;updates to its Surface line&nbsp;that'll ship with Windows 11. Its flagship announcement was a $1,599&nbsp;Surface Laptop Studio&nbsp;that can change from laptop mode to a position better for streaming TV shows and another for drawing or sketching. The device, which took nearly five years to develop, was designed specifically alongside the development of Windows 11.</p><p><blockquote>在上个月的一次直播媒体活动中，微软还展示了将搭载Windows 11的Surface系列的更新。它的旗舰产品是一款售价1599美元的Surface Laptop Studio，可以从笔记本电脑模式切换到更适合流媒体电视节目的位置，以及另一个适合绘画或素描的位置。这款设备花了近五年时间开发，是专门为配合Windows 11的开发而设计的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/tech/windows-11-download/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/tech/windows-11-download/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168799213","content_text":"(CNN Business) - Microsoft is rolling out its first major Windows update in six years. But not everyone will be able to get it right away.\nStarting Tuesday, Windows 11 will be available as a free download to existing Windows users depending on the hardware and age of their PC device.Microsoft (MSFT) previously said its \"phased and measured\" approach to introducing the new operating system will begin with Windows 10 PCs and PCs that come preloaded with Windows. Users will be notified when they're eligible for the update from now through mid-2022.\nWhile the update isn't quite the substantial change from Windows 8 to Windows 10 that came out in 2015, Windows 11 features a handful of notable design changes, including a new interface that is intended to bring \"a sense of calm and ease.\" A new Start menu shows recently opened files, regardless of which device was used. And a new personalized Widgets feed, powered by artificial intelligence, promises to provide a faster way to access apps.\nOther updates are geared towardproviding more flexibility, such as more multitasking tools, support for Android mobile apps in its new app store, and an integration with Microsoft Teams, its workplace chat and videoconferencing app.\nUnlike Apple (APLE), which unveils a new operating system for its Mac computers each year,Microsoft (MSFT) takes a staggered approach.\nGeoff Blaber, CEO of market research firm CCS Insight, said the latest update won't be \"revolutionary,\" but he believes it'll do enough to please its massive user base. (Windows 10 runs on about 1.3 billion devices worldwide, according to Microsoft.)\n\"Windows 11 is an iterative release that pinpoints where Windows needs greater ambition rather than introducing the sweeping changes seen with its predecessor,\" he said. \"Microsoft is making adjustments to areas that have potential to move the needle on user experience, engagement and the ever-expanding reach of Office 365 apps.\"\nIt could also increase hardware sales as it gets closer to the end of Windows 10 support in 2025.\nAt a livestreamed media event last month, Microsoft also showed off updates to its Surface line that'll ship with Windows 11. Its flagship announcement was a $1,599 Surface Laptop Studio that can change from laptop mode to a position better for streaming TV shows and another for drawing or sketching. The device, which took nearly five years to develop, was designed specifically alongside the development of Windows 11.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829097275,"gmtCreate":1633441603021,"gmtModify":1633441603287,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Indeed","listText":"Indeed","text":"Indeed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829097275","repostId":"1116662375","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116662375","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633441259,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116662375?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-05 21:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A decade later, Steve Jobs is still paving Apple’s path to success<blockquote>十年后，史蒂夫·乔布斯仍在为苹果的成功铺平道路</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116662375","media":"macworld","summary":"Time rolls forward, the past recedes, and it all starts to fade, doesn’t it? Ten years ago, Steve Jo","content":"<p>Time rolls forward, the past recedes, and it all starts to fade, doesn’t it? Ten years ago, Steve Jobs died, and at the time Ipondered how he’d be remembered. In the intervening years, his most notable product–Apple itself–has risen to unimaginable levels of power and influence.</p><p><blockquote>时间向前滚动，过去退去，一切都开始褪色，不是吗？十年前，史蒂夫·乔布斯去世了，当时我在想人们会如何记住他。在此期间，他最著名的产品——苹果本身——已经上升到难以想象的权力和影响力水平。</blockquote></p><p> The fact that so much of Apple’s growth has happened since Jobs’s departure hasn’t reduced him at all. It would be relatively easy to argue that the success of Tim Cook’s Apple suggests that, despite everyone’s concern in the late days of 2011, the company actually<i>could</i>go on without Jobs at the helm. But that’s not what anyone thinks. Instead, Jobs is credited for putting Apple on the path that led to it becoming what it is today.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，自乔布斯离开以来，苹果取得了如此大的增长，但这丝毫没有削弱他的实力。可以相对容易地说，蒂姆·库克的苹果的成功表明，尽管2011年末所有人都很担心，但该公司实际上<i>可以</i>没有乔布斯掌舵继续下去。但没人这么想。相反，乔布斯被认为是让苹果走上了今天的道路。</blockquote></p><p> The 10 years before</p><p><blockquote>10年前</blockquote></p><p> On October 5, 2001, 10 years before Jobs passed away, Apple is busy digging itself out of an enormous hole. Jobs returned to the company with the purchase of NeXT in late 1996, assumed the reins of power in mid-1997, and four years later his big accomplishment is mostly that Apple hasn’t gone out of business yet. Thanks to the&nbsp;iMac G3, the company had a financial lifeline that has allowed it to renovate the rest of the Mac product line, get an&nbsp;entirely new Mac OSout the door, and begin&nbsp;expanding into retail.</p><p><blockquote>2001年10月5日，乔布斯去世前10年，苹果正忙着把自己从一个巨大的坑里挖出来。乔布斯于1996年底收购了NeXT，重返公司，并于1997年中期掌权，四年后，他的重大成就主要是苹果尚未倒闭。多亏了iMac G3，该公司有了一条财务生命线，使其能够翻新Mac产品线的其余部分，推出全新的Mac OS，并开始向零售领域扩张。</blockquote></p><p> This is a very different Apple than the one that most people remember, an&nbsp;invisible era&nbsp;where Jobs was furiously throwing ideas at the wall to see what would stick. (A server! Acube-shaped Power Mac!) This Apple was not afraid of failure. It wasn’t afraid of looking foolish. It was, in fact, completely embracing the fact that it would need to keep trying and be willing to fail in order to find where it might succeed.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个与大多数人记忆中截然不同的苹果，一个无形的时代，乔布斯疯狂地向墙上扔想法，看看什么会坚持下去。（一台服务器！立方体形状的Power Mac！）这个苹果不怕失败。它不怕看起来很愚蠢。事实上，它完全接受了这样一个事实，即它需要不断尝试并愿意失败，以便找到它可能成功的地方。</blockquote></p><p> One of those wild ideas ended up saving the company.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个疯狂的想法最终拯救了公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/272cbc070a8abecbfeba42331c92a783\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"800\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Apple had been struggling for years. Then the iPod came along to start a string of successes that made the company what it is today.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>苹果多年来一直在挣扎。然后iPod出现了，开始了一系列的成功，使公司成为今天的样子。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Ten years before Steve Jobs died, he and his team were putting the finishing touches on the new product they’d be introducing a couple of weeks later. It was another weird idea that was still worth trying–a digital music player so compact that you could carry a thousand songs with you in your pocket.</p><p><blockquote>史蒂夫·乔布斯去世前十年，他和他的团队正在为他们几周后推出的新产品做最后的润色。这是另一个仍然值得一试的奇怪想法——一个如此紧凑的数字音乐播放器，你可以在口袋里随身携带一千首歌曲。</blockquote></p><p> The iMac G3’s sales success might have given Apple a lifeline, but it was the iPod (which has its 20th birthday later this month) that introduced Apple’s brand to countless people who had never,<i>would</i>never consider buying a Mac. And combined with the expanding Apple retail empire–another idea that might have ended in disaster, but didn’t–the iPod turned people on to Apple as a brand, making them consider the Mac as well–and Apple’s fortunes grew.</p><p><blockquote>iMac G3的销售成功可能给了苹果一条生命线，但正是iPod（本月晚些时候将迎来20岁生日）将苹果的品牌介绍给了无数从未接触过的人，<i>将会</i>永远不要考虑买Mac。再加上不断扩张的苹果零售帝国——另一个可能以灾难告终的想法，但没有——iPod让人们对苹果这个品牌产生了兴趣，让他们也考虑Mac——苹果的财富也随之增长。</blockquote></p><p> From there, of course, Apple was on the path to build the iPhone and the iPad, constructing the core trio of products that drive the company even today.</p><p><blockquote>当然，从那时起，苹果就走上了制造iPhone和iPad的道路，构建了推动公司发展的三大核心产品。</blockquote></p><p> The 10 years after</p><p><blockquote>10年后</blockquote></p><p> During Apple’sfinal financial quarter with Jobs as CEO, Apple delivered its best financial quarter ever. The company generated a record $28.6 billion in revenue and a record $7.31 billion in profit. It sold $13.3 billion worth of iPhones, $6 billion worth of iPads, and $5.1 billion worth of Macs.</p><p><blockquote>在乔布斯担任首席执行官的苹果的最后一个财务季度，苹果实现了有史以来最好的财务季度。该公司创造了创纪录的286亿美元收入和创纪录的73.1亿美元利润。它销售了价值133亿美元的iPhone、价值60亿美元的iPad和价值51亿美元的Mac。</blockquote></p><p> Ten years after Jobs left Apple,the resultswere a bit better. Revenue was $81.4 billion, 2.8 times more than the decade-ago quarter. Profit was $21.7 billion, nearly three times the decade-ago total. Apple sold $39.5 billion worth of iPhones (up nearly 3 times), $7.3 billion worth of iPads (up 22 percent), and $8.2 billion worth of Macs (up 61 percent).</p><p><blockquote>乔布斯离开苹果十年后，结果稍微好一点。收入为814亿美元，是十年前季度的2.8倍。利润为217亿美元，几乎是十年前总额的三倍。苹果售出了价值395亿美元的iPhone（增长近3倍）、价值73亿美元的iPad（增长22%）和价值82亿美元的Mac（增长61%）。</blockquote></p><p> Under Tim Cook’s stewardship, Apple has tripled what it makes in an average quarter. It has grown two major new sources of revenue in wearable products (such as Apple Watch and AirPods) and services. Does Tim Cook deserve credit for this? Given how so many experts were convinced that Apple would be utterly adrift without Steve Jobs at the helm, I certainly think so.</p><p><blockquote>在蒂姆·库克的管理下，苹果的平均季度收入增长了两倍。它在可穿戴产品（如苹果手表和AirPods）和服务方面增加了两个主要的新收入来源。蒂姆·库克值得为此受到表扬吗？鉴于如此多的专家确信，如果没有史蒂夫·乔布斯的掌舵，苹果将会完全迷失方向，我当然这么认为。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff011b19b561e07a75dc6408fdd7251\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"800\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Apple has experienced tremendous success since Steve Jobs’ death. Tim Cook deserves all the credit, just as Jobs is viewed as the one who set it all up.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>自史蒂夫·乔布斯去世以来，苹果取得了巨大的成功。蒂姆·库克应该得到所有的荣誉，就像乔布斯被认为是这一切的幕后黑手一样。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Just as Apple’s modern corporate culture really owes itself to what Jobs established when he returned to the company in the 1990s, Cook himself was chosen by Jobs as his successor. I think it’s fair to say that Jobs probably saw the trajectory Apple was on and trusted Cook to navigate the company through that growth while also continuing to focus on developing new products and iterating on existing ones.</p><p><blockquote>正如苹果的现代企业文化真正归功于乔布斯上世纪90年代重返公司时建立的东西一样，库克本人也被乔布斯选为继任者。我认为公平地说，乔布斯可能看到了苹果的发展轨迹，并相信库克能够带领公司实现增长，同时继续专注于开发新产品和迭代现有产品。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> So while Cook deserves credit for steering Apple through these waters, Jobs is rightfully viewed as the person who set it all up. The enormous success of Apple in the decade since Jobs died only adds to his legacy.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管库克带领苹果渡过这些难关值得称赞，但乔布斯理应被视为这一切的始作俑者。苹果在乔布斯去世后的十年里取得的巨大成功只会增加他的遗产。</blockquote></p><p> But lest we forget, nothing is forever. Apple TV+, a service that Jobs probably wouldn’t have conceived of himself, recently premiered a series based on Isaac Asimov’s “Foundation” book series. “Foundation” is, fundamentally, about one man’s vision of the future–and how one man’s vision is no match for the sweep of history.</p><p><blockquote>但是我们不要忘记，没有什么是永恒的。苹果TV+是乔布斯自己可能不会想到的服务，最近首播了一个基于艾萨克·阿西莫夫“基金会”系列丛书的系列。从根本上说，“基础”是关于一个人对未来的愿景——以及一个人的愿景如何无法与历史的横扫相媲美。</blockquote></p><p> Time does roll forward, and our perceptions of events continue to shift. Events witnessed in person become old stories retold, subject to the limits of our memories and the imperfection of second-hand storytelling. My daughter was born just after the iPod was announced, but before it shipped. She’s about to turn 20. Where does the time go?</p><p><blockquote>时间确实在向前滚动，我们对事件的看法也在不断变化。亲眼目睹的事件变成了旧故事的复述，受制于我们记忆的限制和二手故事的不完善。我的女儿出生在iPod发布后，但在它上市之前。她快20岁了。时间去了哪里？</blockquote></p><p> “Those of us who are lucky enough to grow old and rickety (in a way that, cruelly, Steven Paul Jobs was never allowed to) will say that we saw that man stand upon a stage with a giant Apple logo behind him and introduce a new iconic, world-changing product,”I wrote when Jobs died. “In a hundred years, perhaps he will have been reduced to a caricature.” Maybe so. But we should all be so lucky.</p><p><blockquote>“我们这些幸运地变老、摇摇晃晃的人（史蒂芬·保罗·乔布斯从未被允许这样做）会说，我们看到那个人站在舞台上，身后有一个巨大的苹果标志，并介绍了一个新的标志性的、改变世界的产品，”乔布斯去世时我写道。“一百年后，或许他会沦为一幅漫画。”也许是这样。但我们都应该如此幸运。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1633441374938","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A decade later, Steve Jobs is still paving Apple’s path to success<blockquote>十年后，史蒂夫·乔布斯仍在为苹果的成功铺平道路</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA decade later, Steve Jobs is still paving Apple’s path to success<blockquote>十年后，史蒂夫·乔布斯仍在为苹果的成功铺平道路</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">macworld</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-05 21:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Time rolls forward, the past recedes, and it all starts to fade, doesn’t it? Ten years ago, Steve Jobs died, and at the time Ipondered how he’d be remembered. In the intervening years, his most notable product–Apple itself–has risen to unimaginable levels of power and influence.</p><p><blockquote>时间向前滚动，过去退去，一切都开始褪色，不是吗？十年前，史蒂夫·乔布斯去世了，当时我在想人们会如何记住他。在此期间，他最著名的产品——苹果本身——已经上升到难以想象的权力和影响力水平。</blockquote></p><p> The fact that so much of Apple’s growth has happened since Jobs’s departure hasn’t reduced him at all. It would be relatively easy to argue that the success of Tim Cook’s Apple suggests that, despite everyone’s concern in the late days of 2011, the company actually<i>could</i>go on without Jobs at the helm. But that’s not what anyone thinks. Instead, Jobs is credited for putting Apple on the path that led to it becoming what it is today.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，自乔布斯离开以来，苹果取得了如此大的增长，但这丝毫没有削弱他的实力。可以相对容易地说，蒂姆·库克的苹果的成功表明，尽管2011年末所有人都很担心，但该公司实际上<i>可以</i>没有乔布斯掌舵继续下去。但没人这么想。相反，乔布斯被认为是让苹果走上了今天的道路。</blockquote></p><p> The 10 years before</p><p><blockquote>10年前</blockquote></p><p> On October 5, 2001, 10 years before Jobs passed away, Apple is busy digging itself out of an enormous hole. Jobs returned to the company with the purchase of NeXT in late 1996, assumed the reins of power in mid-1997, and four years later his big accomplishment is mostly that Apple hasn’t gone out of business yet. Thanks to the&nbsp;iMac G3, the company had a financial lifeline that has allowed it to renovate the rest of the Mac product line, get an&nbsp;entirely new Mac OSout the door, and begin&nbsp;expanding into retail.</p><p><blockquote>2001年10月5日，乔布斯去世前10年，苹果正忙着把自己从一个巨大的坑里挖出来。乔布斯于1996年底收购了NeXT，重返公司，并于1997年中期掌权，四年后，他的重大成就主要是苹果尚未倒闭。多亏了iMac G3，该公司有了一条财务生命线，使其能够翻新Mac产品线的其余部分，推出全新的Mac OS，并开始向零售领域扩张。</blockquote></p><p> This is a very different Apple than the one that most people remember, an&nbsp;invisible era&nbsp;where Jobs was furiously throwing ideas at the wall to see what would stick. (A server! Acube-shaped Power Mac!) This Apple was not afraid of failure. It wasn’t afraid of looking foolish. It was, in fact, completely embracing the fact that it would need to keep trying and be willing to fail in order to find where it might succeed.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个与大多数人记忆中截然不同的苹果，一个无形的时代，乔布斯疯狂地向墙上扔想法，看看什么会坚持下去。（一台服务器！立方体形状的Power Mac！）这个苹果不怕失败。它不怕看起来很愚蠢。事实上，它完全接受了这样一个事实，即它需要不断尝试并愿意失败，以便找到它可能成功的地方。</blockquote></p><p> One of those wild ideas ended up saving the company.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个疯狂的想法最终拯救了公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/272cbc070a8abecbfeba42331c92a783\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"800\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Apple had been struggling for years. Then the iPod came along to start a string of successes that made the company what it is today.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>苹果多年来一直在挣扎。然后iPod出现了，开始了一系列的成功，使公司成为今天的样子。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Ten years before Steve Jobs died, he and his team were putting the finishing touches on the new product they’d be introducing a couple of weeks later. It was another weird idea that was still worth trying–a digital music player so compact that you could carry a thousand songs with you in your pocket.</p><p><blockquote>史蒂夫·乔布斯去世前十年，他和他的团队正在为他们几周后推出的新产品做最后的润色。这是另一个仍然值得一试的奇怪想法——一个如此紧凑的数字音乐播放器，你可以在口袋里随身携带一千首歌曲。</blockquote></p><p> The iMac G3’s sales success might have given Apple a lifeline, but it was the iPod (which has its 20th birthday later this month) that introduced Apple’s brand to countless people who had never,<i>would</i>never consider buying a Mac. And combined with the expanding Apple retail empire–another idea that might have ended in disaster, but didn’t–the iPod turned people on to Apple as a brand, making them consider the Mac as well–and Apple’s fortunes grew.</p><p><blockquote>iMac G3的销售成功可能给了苹果一条生命线，但正是iPod（本月晚些时候将迎来20岁生日）将苹果的品牌介绍给了无数从未接触过的人，<i>将会</i>永远不要考虑买Mac。再加上不断扩张的苹果零售帝国——另一个可能以灾难告终的想法，但没有——iPod让人们对苹果这个品牌产生了兴趣，让他们也考虑Mac——苹果的财富也随之增长。</blockquote></p><p> From there, of course, Apple was on the path to build the iPhone and the iPad, constructing the core trio of products that drive the company even today.</p><p><blockquote>当然，从那时起，苹果就走上了制造iPhone和iPad的道路，构建了推动公司发展的三大核心产品。</blockquote></p><p> The 10 years after</p><p><blockquote>10年后</blockquote></p><p> During Apple’sfinal financial quarter with Jobs as CEO, Apple delivered its best financial quarter ever. The company generated a record $28.6 billion in revenue and a record $7.31 billion in profit. It sold $13.3 billion worth of iPhones, $6 billion worth of iPads, and $5.1 billion worth of Macs.</p><p><blockquote>在乔布斯担任首席执行官的苹果的最后一个财务季度，苹果实现了有史以来最好的财务季度。该公司创造了创纪录的286亿美元收入和创纪录的73.1亿美元利润。它销售了价值133亿美元的iPhone、价值60亿美元的iPad和价值51亿美元的Mac。</blockquote></p><p> Ten years after Jobs left Apple,the resultswere a bit better. Revenue was $81.4 billion, 2.8 times more than the decade-ago quarter. Profit was $21.7 billion, nearly three times the decade-ago total. Apple sold $39.5 billion worth of iPhones (up nearly 3 times), $7.3 billion worth of iPads (up 22 percent), and $8.2 billion worth of Macs (up 61 percent).</p><p><blockquote>乔布斯离开苹果十年后，结果稍微好一点。收入为814亿美元，是十年前季度的2.8倍。利润为217亿美元，几乎是十年前总额的三倍。苹果售出了价值395亿美元的iPhone（增长近3倍）、价值73亿美元的iPad（增长22%）和价值82亿美元的Mac（增长61%）。</blockquote></p><p> Under Tim Cook’s stewardship, Apple has tripled what it makes in an average quarter. It has grown two major new sources of revenue in wearable products (such as Apple Watch and AirPods) and services. Does Tim Cook deserve credit for this? Given how so many experts were convinced that Apple would be utterly adrift without Steve Jobs at the helm, I certainly think so.</p><p><blockquote>在蒂姆·库克的管理下，苹果的平均季度收入增长了两倍。它在可穿戴产品（如苹果手表和AirPods）和服务方面增加了两个主要的新收入来源。蒂姆·库克值得为此受到表扬吗？鉴于如此多的专家确信，如果没有史蒂夫·乔布斯的掌舵，苹果将会完全迷失方向，我当然这么认为。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff011b19b561e07a75dc6408fdd7251\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"800\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Apple has experienced tremendous success since Steve Jobs’ death. Tim Cook deserves all the credit, just as Jobs is viewed as the one who set it all up.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>自史蒂夫·乔布斯去世以来，苹果取得了巨大的成功。蒂姆·库克应该得到所有的荣誉，就像乔布斯被认为是这一切的幕后黑手一样。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Just as Apple’s modern corporate culture really owes itself to what Jobs established when he returned to the company in the 1990s, Cook himself was chosen by Jobs as his successor. I think it’s fair to say that Jobs probably saw the trajectory Apple was on and trusted Cook to navigate the company through that growth while also continuing to focus on developing new products and iterating on existing ones.</p><p><blockquote>正如苹果的现代企业文化真正归功于乔布斯上世纪90年代重返公司时建立的东西一样，库克本人也被乔布斯选为继任者。我认为公平地说，乔布斯可能看到了苹果的发展轨迹，并相信库克能够带领公司实现增长，同时继续专注于开发新产品和迭代现有产品。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> So while Cook deserves credit for steering Apple through these waters, Jobs is rightfully viewed as the person who set it all up. The enormous success of Apple in the decade since Jobs died only adds to his legacy.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管库克带领苹果渡过这些难关值得称赞，但乔布斯理应被视为这一切的始作俑者。苹果在乔布斯去世后的十年里取得的巨大成功只会增加他的遗产。</blockquote></p><p> But lest we forget, nothing is forever. Apple TV+, a service that Jobs probably wouldn’t have conceived of himself, recently premiered a series based on Isaac Asimov’s “Foundation” book series. “Foundation” is, fundamentally, about one man’s vision of the future–and how one man’s vision is no match for the sweep of history.</p><p><blockquote>但是我们不要忘记，没有什么是永恒的。苹果TV+是乔布斯自己可能不会想到的服务，最近首播了一个基于艾萨克·阿西莫夫“基金会”系列丛书的系列。从根本上说，“基础”是关于一个人对未来的愿景——以及一个人的愿景如何无法与历史的横扫相媲美。</blockquote></p><p> Time does roll forward, and our perceptions of events continue to shift. Events witnessed in person become old stories retold, subject to the limits of our memories and the imperfection of second-hand storytelling. My daughter was born just after the iPod was announced, but before it shipped. She’s about to turn 20. Where does the time go?</p><p><blockquote>时间确实在向前滚动，我们对事件的看法也在不断变化。亲眼目睹的事件变成了旧故事的复述，受制于我们记忆的限制和二手故事的不完善。我的女儿出生在iPod发布后，但在它上市之前。她快20岁了。时间去了哪里？</blockquote></p><p> “Those of us who are lucky enough to grow old and rickety (in a way that, cruelly, Steven Paul Jobs was never allowed to) will say that we saw that man stand upon a stage with a giant Apple logo behind him and introduce a new iconic, world-changing product,”I wrote when Jobs died. “In a hundred years, perhaps he will have been reduced to a caricature.” Maybe so. But we should all be so lucky.</p><p><blockquote>“我们这些幸运地变老、摇摇晃晃的人（史蒂芬·保罗·乔布斯从未被允许这样做）会说，我们看到那个人站在舞台上，身后有一个巨大的苹果标志，并介绍了一个新的标志性的、改变世界的产品，”乔布斯去世时我写道。“一百年后，或许他会沦为一幅漫画。”也许是这样。但我们都应该如此幸运。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.macworld.com/article/540956/steve-jobs-apple-path-to-success.html\">macworld</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.macworld.com/article/540956/steve-jobs-apple-path-to-success.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116662375","content_text":"Time rolls forward, the past recedes, and it all starts to fade, doesn’t it? Ten years ago, Steve Jobs died, and at the time Ipondered how he’d be remembered. In the intervening years, his most notable product–Apple itself–has risen to unimaginable levels of power and influence.\nThe fact that so much of Apple’s growth has happened since Jobs’s departure hasn’t reduced him at all. It would be relatively easy to argue that the success of Tim Cook’s Apple suggests that, despite everyone’s concern in the late days of 2011, the company actuallycouldgo on without Jobs at the helm. But that’s not what anyone thinks. Instead, Jobs is credited for putting Apple on the path that led to it becoming what it is today.\nThe 10 years before\nOn October 5, 2001, 10 years before Jobs passed away, Apple is busy digging itself out of an enormous hole. Jobs returned to the company with the purchase of NeXT in late 1996, assumed the reins of power in mid-1997, and four years later his big accomplishment is mostly that Apple hasn’t gone out of business yet. Thanks to the iMac G3, the company had a financial lifeline that has allowed it to renovate the rest of the Mac product line, get an entirely new Mac OSout the door, and begin expanding into retail.\nThis is a very different Apple than the one that most people remember, an invisible era where Jobs was furiously throwing ideas at the wall to see what would stick. (A server! Acube-shaped Power Mac!) This Apple was not afraid of failure. It wasn’t afraid of looking foolish. It was, in fact, completely embracing the fact that it would need to keep trying and be willing to fail in order to find where it might succeed.\nOne of those wild ideas ended up saving the company.\nApple had been struggling for years. Then the iPod came along to start a string of successes that made the company what it is today.\nTen years before Steve Jobs died, he and his team were putting the finishing touches on the new product they’d be introducing a couple of weeks later. It was another weird idea that was still worth trying–a digital music player so compact that you could carry a thousand songs with you in your pocket.\nThe iMac G3’s sales success might have given Apple a lifeline, but it was the iPod (which has its 20th birthday later this month) that introduced Apple’s brand to countless people who had never,wouldnever consider buying a Mac. And combined with the expanding Apple retail empire–another idea that might have ended in disaster, but didn’t–the iPod turned people on to Apple as a brand, making them consider the Mac as well–and Apple’s fortunes grew.\nFrom there, of course, Apple was on the path to build the iPhone and the iPad, constructing the core trio of products that drive the company even today.\nThe 10 years after\nDuring Apple’sfinal financial quarter with Jobs as CEO, Apple delivered its best financial quarter ever. The company generated a record $28.6 billion in revenue and a record $7.31 billion in profit. It sold $13.3 billion worth of iPhones, $6 billion worth of iPads, and $5.1 billion worth of Macs.\nTen years after Jobs left Apple,the resultswere a bit better. Revenue was $81.4 billion, 2.8 times more than the decade-ago quarter. Profit was $21.7 billion, nearly three times the decade-ago total. Apple sold $39.5 billion worth of iPhones (up nearly 3 times), $7.3 billion worth of iPads (up 22 percent), and $8.2 billion worth of Macs (up 61 percent).\nUnder Tim Cook’s stewardship, Apple has tripled what it makes in an average quarter. It has grown two major new sources of revenue in wearable products (such as Apple Watch and AirPods) and services. Does Tim Cook deserve credit for this? Given how so many experts were convinced that Apple would be utterly adrift without Steve Jobs at the helm, I certainly think so.\nApple has experienced tremendous success since Steve Jobs’ death. Tim Cook deserves all the credit, just as Jobs is viewed as the one who set it all up.\nJust as Apple’s modern corporate culture really owes itself to what Jobs established when he returned to the company in the 1990s, Cook himself was chosen by Jobs as his successor. I think it’s fair to say that Jobs probably saw the trajectory Apple was on and trusted Cook to navigate the company through that growth while also continuing to focus on developing new products and iterating on existing ones.\nSo while Cook deserves credit for steering Apple through these waters, Jobs is rightfully viewed as the person who set it all up. The enormous success of Apple in the decade since Jobs died only adds to his legacy.\nBut lest we forget, nothing is forever. Apple TV+, a service that Jobs probably wouldn’t have conceived of himself, recently premiered a series based on Isaac Asimov’s “Foundation” book series. “Foundation” is, fundamentally, about one man’s vision of the future–and how one man’s vision is no match for the sweep of history.\nTime does roll forward, and our perceptions of events continue to shift. Events witnessed in person become old stories retold, subject to the limits of our memories and the imperfection of second-hand storytelling. My daughter was born just after the iPod was announced, but before it shipped. She’s about to turn 20. Where does the time go?\n“Those of us who are lucky enough to grow old and rickety (in a way that, cruelly, Steven Paul Jobs was never allowed to) will say that we saw that man stand upon a stage with a giant Apple logo behind him and introduce a new iconic, world-changing product,”I wrote when Jobs died. “In a hundred years, perhaps he will have been reduced to a caricature.” Maybe so. But we should all be so lucky.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820102536,"gmtCreate":1633356733852,"gmtModify":1633356734172,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What","listText":"What","text":"What","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820102536","repostId":"1195244845","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864447944,"gmtCreate":1633142636645,"gmtModify":1633142636946,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wut","listText":"Wut","text":"Wut","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864447944","repostId":"2172968387","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3087,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868007973,"gmtCreate":1632545157292,"gmtModify":1632799201614,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868007973","repostId":"1149730497","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868004574,"gmtCreate":1632545111798,"gmtModify":1632799202107,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Either goes well or goes badNot sure what moat Zoom have over other software says WebEx or Teams","listText":"Either goes well or goes badNot sure what moat Zoom have over other software says WebEx or Teams","text":"Either goes well or goes badNot sure what moat Zoom have over other software says WebEx or Teams","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868004574","repostId":"1117076176","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861915708,"gmtCreate":1632448232704,"gmtModify":1632723202209,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can throw lightning away","listText":"Can throw lightning away","text":"Can throw lightning away","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861915708","repostId":"2169042660","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863315114,"gmtCreate":1632358288438,"gmtModify":1632800967755,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Automation to replace Humans","listText":"Automation to replace Humans","text":"Automation to replace Humans","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863315114","repostId":"2169652287","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":869435978,"gmtCreate":1632315237494,"gmtModify":1632801321232,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869435978","repostId":"1182163370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182163370","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632313786,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182163370?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-22 20:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sens McConnell, Shelby Offer Short-Term Govt. Funding Bill Without Debt Ceiling<blockquote>参议员麦康奈尔，谢尔比提供短期政府。无债务上限的融资法案</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182163370","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) on Sept. 21 offered ","content":"<p>Senate&nbsp;Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. Richard Shelby&nbsp;(R-Ala.) on Sept. 21 offered a competing short-term government funding bill, just as House Democratspassed a stopgap measure&nbsp;that also suspends thedebt limit&nbsp;until after the 2022 election.</p><p><blockquote>参议院少数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔（肯塔基州共和党人）和参议员理查德·谢尔比（阿拉巴马州共和党人）于9月21日提出了一项竞争性的短期政府拨款法案，就像众议院民主党人通过了一项权宜之计，也将债务限额暂停到2022年大选之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bill&nbsp;from&nbsp;McConnell and&nbsp;Shelby&nbsp;does not include a debt ceiling suspension,</b>as&nbsp;Republicans have urged&nbsp;Democrats—the majority party—to raise the $28.4 trillion debt ceiling themselves through reconciliation,&nbsp;a special parliamentary procedure that would expedite the passage of a budgetary measure through the Senate.</p><p><blockquote><b>麦康奈尔和谢尔比的法案不包括暂停债务上限，</b>共和党人敦促多数党民主党人通过和解自行提高28.4万亿美元的债务上限，这是一种特殊的议会程序，将加快参议院通过预算措施。</blockquote></p><p> <i>[ZH: The introduction of the bill likely increases the probability of no Senate deal, and for now, the market is tending to agree as debt ceiling anxiety has not eased at all]</i></p><p><blockquote><i>[ZH：该法案的出台可能会增加参议院无法达成协议的可能性，目前，市场倾向于同意，因为债务上限焦虑丝毫没有缓解]</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adde3642e318f1934b298f8bbca83d08\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Through&nbsp;reconciliation, Democrats would be able to bypass the need for 60 votes to approve legislation, and instead rely on a simple majority in the Senate.&nbsp;But Democrats have resisted doing that so far, saying the vote to raise the debt limit should be a bipartisan one.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通过和解，民主党人将能够绕过60票批准立法的需要，而是依靠参议院的简单多数。但到目前为止，民主党人拒绝这样做，称提高债务上限的投票应该是两党的投票。</b></blockquote></p><p>   “I am pleased to introduce a package with Leader McConnell that would extend government funding, provide much-needed disaster relief, and deliver targeted Afghan assistance. Republicans and Democrats have undergone bipartisan, bicameral negotiations for weeks to keep the government open and provide emergency aid. This bill reflects those urgent priorities,” Shelby&nbsp;said in a statement.  <i>Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) walks through the basement of the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, on Aug. 10, 2021. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)</i></p><p><blockquote>谢尔比在一份声明中说：“我很高兴与麦康奈尔领导人一起提出一项一揽子计划，该计划将扩大政府资金，提供急需的救灾，并提供有针对性的阿富汗援助。共和党和民主党已经进行了数周的两党、两院谈判，以保持政府开放并提供紧急援助。这项法案反映了这些紧迫的优先事项。”<i>参议员理查德·谢尔比（阿拉巴马州共和党人）于2021年8月10日走过华盛顿美国国会大厦的地下室。（塞缪尔·科勒姆/盖蒂图片社）</i></blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“Importantly, our legislation includes funding for the Iron Dome, making good on our commitment to a historic and significant ally, and removes the Democrats’ ill-conceived language on the debt limit. Members on both sides of the aisle can support this measure, and I urge them to do so with haste,</b></i>” he added.  Similar to the&nbsp;Democrats’ bill, the legislation from&nbsp;McConnell and&nbsp;Shelby&nbsp;would also keep the government funded through Dec. 3.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“重要的是，我们的立法包括为铁穹提供资金，兑现我们对一个历史性的重要盟友的承诺，并删除了民主党在债务限额上考虑不周的语言。两党议员都可以支持这项措施，我敦促他们尽快这样做，</b></i>”他补充道。与民主党的法案类似，麦康奈尔和谢尔比的立法也将在12月3日之前为政府提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> It also includes&nbsp;resources for disaster aid and assistance for Afghan allies, as well as funding for the Iron Dome,&nbsp;Israel’s defense system.&nbsp;The Republicans senators said the funding for the&nbsp;Iron Dome would “bolster Israel’s defense capacity and protect against Hamas attacks.”</p><p><blockquote>它还包括用于救灾和援助阿富汗盟友的资源，以及为以色列防御系统铁穹提供资金。共和党参议员表示，为铁穹提供的资金将“增强以色列的防御能力并抵御哈马斯的袭击”。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday,&nbsp;House Democrats removed&nbsp;$1 billion in funding for the Dome from their bill, amid accusations of human rights abuses within the Israel’s military and its treatment towards&nbsp;Palestinians.</p><p><blockquote>周二，众议院民主党人从他们的法案中删除了10亿美元的穹顶资金，因为有人指控以色列军队侵犯人权及其对待巴勒斯坦人的方式。</blockquote></p><p> <i>An Israeli soldier lies on the ground as missiles are fired from an Iron Dome anti-missile station near the city of Beer Sheva, Israel on Nov. 15, 2012. (Ilia Yefimovich/Getty Images)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>2012年11月15日，以色列贝尔谢巴市附近的铁穹反导站发射导弹，一名以色列士兵躺在地上。（伊利亚·叶菲莫维奇/盖蒂图片社）</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The latest GOP legislation comes after&nbsp;The House of Representatives voted late Tuesday to&nbsp;pass a bill&nbsp;that would avert a government shutdown or U.S. default, fund it&nbsp;through Dec. 3 and suspend the debt limit through Dec. 16, 2022.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>共和党的最新立法是在众议院周二晚些时候投票通过一项法案之后发布的，该法案将避免政府关门或美国违约，为其提供资金至12月3日，并在2022年12月16日之前暂停债务限额。</b></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;220–211 vote in the Democrat-majority chamber was on party lines. However, the bill now faces a tough hurdle in the Senate, where Republicans have said they would mount a filibuster.</p><p><blockquote>民主党占多数的众议院以220票对211票的投票结果符合党派界限。然而，该法案现在在参议院面临着一个艰难的障碍，共和党人表示他们将发起阻挠议事。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking to&nbsp;reporters at a press conference on Tuesday,&nbsp;McConnell reiterated that&nbsp;Republicans were willing to support&nbsp;a short-term government funding bill if it included funding support for the Iron Dome, as well as&nbsp;assistance for Louisiana,&nbsp;which has been left debilitated by&nbsp;hurricane Ida in recent weeks.</p><p><blockquote>麦康奈尔在周二的新闻发布会上对记者重申，共和党人愿意支持一项短期政府拨款法案，如果该法案包括对铁穹的资金支持，以及对路易斯安那州的援助，路易斯安那州因飓风艾达而变得虚弱。最近几周。</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re prepared to support a continuing resolution with assistance for Louisiana, with additional funds to replenish Iron Dome,” McConnell said, reported The Hill.    “What we’re not prepared to do is to relieve the Democratic president, Democratic House, Democratic Senate from their governing obligation to address the debt ceiling,” he added.  Congress must pass a funding plan by Sept. 30 to avert a government shutdown or U.S. default.&nbsp;The extra time will allow lawmakers to negotiate on the budget for the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>据《国会山报》报道，麦康奈尔表示：“我们准备支持一项持续的决议，向路易斯安那州提供援助，并提供额外资金来补充铁穹。”他补充说：“我们不准备做的是解除民主党总统、民主党众议院、民主党参议院解决债务上限问题的治理义务。”国会必须在9月30日之前通过一项拨款计划，以避免政府关门或美国违约。额外的时间将允许议员们就来年的预算进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The current debt ceiling has already been breached, with debt at $28.78 trillion. It is being temporarily financed through the Treasury Department’s “extraordinary measures,” which it expects will be exhausted by October.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>目前的债务上限已经被突破，债务为28.78万亿美元。它是通过财政部的“非常措施”临时融资的，预计这些措施将在10月份用尽。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sens McConnell, Shelby Offer Short-Term Govt. Funding Bill Without Debt Ceiling<blockquote>参议员麦康奈尔，谢尔比提供短期政府。无债务上限的融资法案</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSens McConnell, Shelby Offer Short-Term Govt. Funding Bill Without Debt Ceiling<blockquote>参议员麦康奈尔，谢尔比提供短期政府。无债务上限的融资法案</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-22 20:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Senate&nbsp;Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. Richard Shelby&nbsp;(R-Ala.) on Sept. 21 offered a competing short-term government funding bill, just as House Democratspassed a stopgap measure&nbsp;that also suspends thedebt limit&nbsp;until after the 2022 election.</p><p><blockquote>参议院少数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔（肯塔基州共和党人）和参议员理查德·谢尔比（阿拉巴马州共和党人）于9月21日提出了一项竞争性的短期政府拨款法案，就像众议院民主党人通过了一项权宜之计，也将债务限额暂停到2022年大选之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bill&nbsp;from&nbsp;McConnell and&nbsp;Shelby&nbsp;does not include a debt ceiling suspension,</b>as&nbsp;Republicans have urged&nbsp;Democrats—the majority party—to raise the $28.4 trillion debt ceiling themselves through reconciliation,&nbsp;a special parliamentary procedure that would expedite the passage of a budgetary measure through the Senate.</p><p><blockquote><b>麦康奈尔和谢尔比的法案不包括暂停债务上限，</b>共和党人敦促多数党民主党人通过和解自行提高28.4万亿美元的债务上限，这是一种特殊的议会程序，将加快参议院通过预算措施。</blockquote></p><p> <i>[ZH: The introduction of the bill likely increases the probability of no Senate deal, and for now, the market is tending to agree as debt ceiling anxiety has not eased at all]</i></p><p><blockquote><i>[ZH：该法案的出台可能会增加参议院无法达成协议的可能性，目前，市场倾向于同意，因为债务上限焦虑丝毫没有缓解]</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adde3642e318f1934b298f8bbca83d08\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Through&nbsp;reconciliation, Democrats would be able to bypass the need for 60 votes to approve legislation, and instead rely on a simple majority in the Senate.&nbsp;But Democrats have resisted doing that so far, saying the vote to raise the debt limit should be a bipartisan one.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通过和解，民主党人将能够绕过60票批准立法的需要，而是依靠参议院的简单多数。但到目前为止，民主党人拒绝这样做，称提高债务上限的投票应该是两党的投票。</b></blockquote></p><p>   “I am pleased to introduce a package with Leader McConnell that would extend government funding, provide much-needed disaster relief, and deliver targeted Afghan assistance. Republicans and Democrats have undergone bipartisan, bicameral negotiations for weeks to keep the government open and provide emergency aid. This bill reflects those urgent priorities,” Shelby&nbsp;said in a statement.  <i>Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) walks through the basement of the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, on Aug. 10, 2021. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)</i></p><p><blockquote>谢尔比在一份声明中说：“我很高兴与麦康奈尔领导人一起提出一项一揽子计划，该计划将扩大政府资金，提供急需的救灾，并提供有针对性的阿富汗援助。共和党和民主党已经进行了数周的两党、两院谈判，以保持政府开放并提供紧急援助。这项法案反映了这些紧迫的优先事项。”<i>参议员理查德·谢尔比（阿拉巴马州共和党人）于2021年8月10日走过华盛顿美国国会大厦的地下室。（塞缪尔·科勒姆/盖蒂图片社）</i></blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“Importantly, our legislation includes funding for the Iron Dome, making good on our commitment to a historic and significant ally, and removes the Democrats’ ill-conceived language on the debt limit. Members on both sides of the aisle can support this measure, and I urge them to do so with haste,</b></i>” he added.  Similar to the&nbsp;Democrats’ bill, the legislation from&nbsp;McConnell and&nbsp;Shelby&nbsp;would also keep the government funded through Dec. 3.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“重要的是，我们的立法包括为铁穹提供资金，兑现我们对一个历史性的重要盟友的承诺，并删除了民主党在债务限额上考虑不周的语言。两党议员都可以支持这项措施，我敦促他们尽快这样做，</b></i>”他补充道。与民主党的法案类似，麦康奈尔和谢尔比的立法也将在12月3日之前为政府提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> It also includes&nbsp;resources for disaster aid and assistance for Afghan allies, as well as funding for the Iron Dome,&nbsp;Israel’s defense system.&nbsp;The Republicans senators said the funding for the&nbsp;Iron Dome would “bolster Israel’s defense capacity and protect against Hamas attacks.”</p><p><blockquote>它还包括用于救灾和援助阿富汗盟友的资源，以及为以色列防御系统铁穹提供资金。共和党参议员表示，为铁穹提供的资金将“增强以色列的防御能力并抵御哈马斯的袭击”。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday,&nbsp;House Democrats removed&nbsp;$1 billion in funding for the Dome from their bill, amid accusations of human rights abuses within the Israel’s military and its treatment towards&nbsp;Palestinians.</p><p><blockquote>周二，众议院民主党人从他们的法案中删除了10亿美元的穹顶资金，因为有人指控以色列军队侵犯人权及其对待巴勒斯坦人的方式。</blockquote></p><p> <i>An Israeli soldier lies on the ground as missiles are fired from an Iron Dome anti-missile station near the city of Beer Sheva, Israel on Nov. 15, 2012. (Ilia Yefimovich/Getty Images)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>2012年11月15日，以色列贝尔谢巴市附近的铁穹反导站发射导弹，一名以色列士兵躺在地上。（伊利亚·叶菲莫维奇/盖蒂图片社）</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The latest GOP legislation comes after&nbsp;The House of Representatives voted late Tuesday to&nbsp;pass a bill&nbsp;that would avert a government shutdown or U.S. default, fund it&nbsp;through Dec. 3 and suspend the debt limit through Dec. 16, 2022.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>共和党的最新立法是在众议院周二晚些时候投票通过一项法案之后发布的，该法案将避免政府关门或美国违约，为其提供资金至12月3日，并在2022年12月16日之前暂停债务限额。</b></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;220–211 vote in the Democrat-majority chamber was on party lines. However, the bill now faces a tough hurdle in the Senate, where Republicans have said they would mount a filibuster.</p><p><blockquote>民主党占多数的众议院以220票对211票的投票结果符合党派界限。然而，该法案现在在参议院面临着一个艰难的障碍，共和党人表示他们将发起阻挠议事。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking to&nbsp;reporters at a press conference on Tuesday,&nbsp;McConnell reiterated that&nbsp;Republicans were willing to support&nbsp;a short-term government funding bill if it included funding support for the Iron Dome, as well as&nbsp;assistance for Louisiana,&nbsp;which has been left debilitated by&nbsp;hurricane Ida in recent weeks.</p><p><blockquote>麦康奈尔在周二的新闻发布会上对记者重申，共和党人愿意支持一项短期政府拨款法案，如果该法案包括对铁穹的资金支持，以及对路易斯安那州的援助，路易斯安那州因飓风艾达而变得虚弱。最近几周。</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re prepared to support a continuing resolution with assistance for Louisiana, with additional funds to replenish Iron Dome,” McConnell said, reported The Hill.    “What we’re not prepared to do is to relieve the Democratic president, Democratic House, Democratic Senate from their governing obligation to address the debt ceiling,” he added.  Congress must pass a funding plan by Sept. 30 to avert a government shutdown or U.S. default.&nbsp;The extra time will allow lawmakers to negotiate on the budget for the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>据《国会山报》报道，麦康奈尔表示：“我们准备支持一项持续的决议，向路易斯安那州提供援助，并提供额外资金来补充铁穹。”他补充说：“我们不准备做的是解除民主党总统、民主党众议院、民主党参议院解决债务上限问题的治理义务。”国会必须在9月30日之前通过一项拨款计划，以避免政府关门或美国违约。额外的时间将允许议员们就来年的预算进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The current debt ceiling has already been breached, with debt at $28.78 trillion. It is being temporarily financed through the Treasury Department’s “extraordinary measures,” which it expects will be exhausted by October.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>目前的债务上限已经被突破，债务为28.78万亿美元。它是通过财政部的“非常措施”临时融资的，预计这些措施将在10月份用尽。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/political/sens-mcconnell-shelby-offer-short-term-govt-funding-bill-without-debt-ceiling?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/political/sens-mcconnell-shelby-offer-short-term-govt-funding-bill-without-debt-ceiling?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182163370","content_text":"Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) on Sept. 21 offered a competing short-term government funding bill, just as House Democratspassed a stopgap measure that also suspends thedebt limit until after the 2022 election.\nThe bill from McConnell and Shelby does not include a debt ceiling suspension,as Republicans have urged Democrats—the majority party—to raise the $28.4 trillion debt ceiling themselves through reconciliation, a special parliamentary procedure that would expedite the passage of a budgetary measure through the Senate.\n[ZH: The introduction of the bill likely increases the probability of no Senate deal, and for now, the market is tending to agree as debt ceiling anxiety has not eased at all]\nThrough reconciliation, Democrats would be able to bypass the need for 60 votes to approve legislation, and instead rely on a simple majority in the Senate. But Democrats have resisted doing that so far, saying the vote to raise the debt limit should be a bipartisan one.\n\n “I am pleased to introduce a package with Leader McConnell that would extend government funding, provide much-needed disaster relief, and deliver targeted Afghan assistance. Republicans and Democrats have undergone bipartisan, bicameral negotiations for weeks to keep the government open and provide emergency aid. This bill reflects those urgent priorities,” Shelby said in a statement.\n\nSen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) walks through the basement of the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, on Aug. 10, 2021. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)\n\n“Importantly, our legislation includes funding for the Iron Dome, making good on our commitment to a historic and significant ally, and removes the Democrats’ ill-conceived language on the debt limit. Members on both sides of the aisle can support this measure, and I urge them to do so with haste,” he added.\n\nSimilar to the Democrats’ bill, the legislation from McConnell and Shelby would also keep the government funded through Dec. 3.\nIt also includes resources for disaster aid and assistance for Afghan allies, as well as funding for the Iron Dome, Israel’s defense system. The Republicans senators said the funding for the Iron Dome would “bolster Israel’s defense capacity and protect against Hamas attacks.”\nOn Tuesday, House Democrats removed $1 billion in funding for the Dome from their bill, amid accusations of human rights abuses within the Israel’s military and its treatment towards Palestinians.\nAn Israeli soldier lies on the ground as missiles are fired from an Iron Dome anti-missile station near the city of Beer Sheva, Israel on Nov. 15, 2012. (Ilia Yefimovich/Getty Images)\nThe latest GOP legislation comes after The House of Representatives voted late Tuesday to pass a bill that would avert a government shutdown or U.S. default, fund it through Dec. 3 and suspend the debt limit through Dec. 16, 2022.\nThe 220–211 vote in the Democrat-majority chamber was on party lines. However, the bill now faces a tough hurdle in the Senate, where Republicans have said they would mount a filibuster.\nSpeaking to reporters at a press conference on Tuesday, McConnell reiterated that Republicans were willing to support a short-term government funding bill if it included funding support for the Iron Dome, as well as assistance for Louisiana, which has been left debilitated by hurricane Ida in recent weeks.\n\n “We’re prepared to support a continuing resolution with assistance for Louisiana, with additional funds to replenish Iron Dome,” McConnell said, reported The Hill.\n\n\n “What we’re not prepared to do is to relieve the Democratic president, Democratic House, Democratic Senate from their governing obligation to address the debt ceiling,” he added.\n\nCongress must pass a funding plan by Sept. 30 to avert a government shutdown or U.S. default. The extra time will allow lawmakers to negotiate on the budget for the coming year.\nThe current debt ceiling has already been breached, with debt at $28.78 trillion. It is being temporarily financed through the Treasury Department’s “extraordinary measures,” which it expects will be exhausted by October.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860516068,"gmtCreate":1632187868554,"gmtModify":1632802207208,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No good","listText":"No good","text":"No good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860516068","repostId":"1134768038","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134768038","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632185861,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134768038?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-21 08:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will the Stock Market Selloff Get Worse? Watch This Number.<blockquote>股市抛售会变得更糟吗？注意这个数字。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134768038","media":"Barrons","summary":"Was Monday’s selloff indicative of the big stock market correction that Wall Street has been calling","content":"<p>Was Monday’s selloff indicative of the big stock market correction that Wall Street has been calling for? Analysts are watching a key level for clues.</p><p><blockquote>周一的抛售是否预示着华尔街一直呼吁的股市大幅调整？分析师正在关注一个关键水平以寻找线索。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 had its worst day in months Monday, tumbling 1.7%. Investors are also growing uncertain as the Federal Reserve’s meeting nears and negotiations over the Congressional budget and debt ceiling continue.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周一经历了几个月来最糟糕的一天，下跌1.7%。随着美联储会议的临近以及国会预算和债务上限谈判的继续，投资者的不确定性也越来越大。</blockquote></p><p> Friday, the S&amp;P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average, a technical indicator that shows investors are losing confidence in the market outlook. The S&amp;P 500 is 3.9% below its all-time high as of Monday’s close, at its lowest level since mid-June.</p><p><blockquote>周五，标普500跌破50日均线，这一技术指标表明投资者对后市失去信心。截至周一收盘，标普500较历史高点低3.9%，为6月中旬以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> But on Monday, the S&amp;P flashed another troublesome signal. The index briefly fell below its 100-day moving average of 4,320.</p><p><blockquote>但周一，标普又闪现出另一个麻烦的信号。该指数短暂跌破4,320点的100天移动均线。</blockquote></p><p> Now, the question is whether stocks will bounce back quickly or suffer a correction, defined as a 10% drop from a recent high. Frank Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet, is watching the 100-day moving average. As the market has fallen below these key levels, “You haven’t had the demand to buy [the] volatility,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>现在的问题是，股市是会迅速反弹还是会出现回调，回调的定义是从近期高点下跌10%。Instinet首席市场技术员Frank Cappelleri正在关注100日移动平均线。随着市场跌破这些关键水平，“你没有购买波动性的需求，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> If the S&amp;P 500 falls significantly below the 4230 level with a majority of the stocks on the index in the red, watch out for a correction. That would indicate that market participants still see large risks that aren’t reflected in stock prices.</p><p><blockquote>如果标普500大幅跌破4230点，指数上大多数股票都出现亏损，请留意回调。这表明市场参与者仍然看到了未反映在股价中的巨大风险。</blockquote></p><p> “Is it going to be a falling knife at that level? 1-2% down moves?” Cappelleri said. “[The] chances of an elongated volatility environment are higher.”</p><p><blockquote>“那个级别会是落刀吗？1-2%的下移？”卡佩莱里说。“长期波动环境的可能性更高。”</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, the S&amp;P 500 could be in for a quick pullback if it sees a move higher, a tiny move lower, or a drop where the majority of stocks on the index are rising. Any of those scenarios would signal optimism.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，如果指数中大多数股票上涨、小幅下跌或下跌，标普500可能会迅速回调。这些情况中的任何一种都是乐观的信号。</blockquote></p><p> “[The 4,320 level] can encourage some dip buying because the market has been so consistent this year,” said Cappelleri.</p><p><blockquote>Cappelleri表示：“[4,320点水平]可以鼓励一些逢低买盘，因为今年市场一直如此稳定。”</blockquote></p><p> Other analysts are watching, too. “We are placing a lot of weight on today’s price action,” wrote founder of Fairlead Strategies Katie Stockton, on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>其他分析师也在关注。Fairlead Strategies创始人凯蒂·斯托克顿(Katie Stockton)周一写道：“我们非常重视今天的价格走势。”</blockquote></p><p> Some good news for investors: The index closed Monday above that key level.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说，一些好消息是：该指数周一收于该关键水平之上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the Stock Market Selloff Get Worse? Watch This Number.<blockquote>股市抛售会变得更糟吗？注意这个数字。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the Stock Market Selloff Get Worse? Watch This Number.<blockquote>股市抛售会变得更糟吗？注意这个数字。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-21 08:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Was Monday’s selloff indicative of the big stock market correction that Wall Street has been calling for? Analysts are watching a key level for clues.</p><p><blockquote>周一的抛售是否预示着华尔街一直呼吁的股市大幅调整？分析师正在关注一个关键水平以寻找线索。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 had its worst day in months Monday, tumbling 1.7%. Investors are also growing uncertain as the Federal Reserve’s meeting nears and negotiations over the Congressional budget and debt ceiling continue.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周一经历了几个月来最糟糕的一天，下跌1.7%。随着美联储会议的临近以及国会预算和债务上限谈判的继续，投资者的不确定性也越来越大。</blockquote></p><p> Friday, the S&amp;P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average, a technical indicator that shows investors are losing confidence in the market outlook. The S&amp;P 500 is 3.9% below its all-time high as of Monday’s close, at its lowest level since mid-June.</p><p><blockquote>周五，标普500跌破50日均线，这一技术指标表明投资者对后市失去信心。截至周一收盘，标普500较历史高点低3.9%，为6月中旬以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> But on Monday, the S&amp;P flashed another troublesome signal. The index briefly fell below its 100-day moving average of 4,320.</p><p><blockquote>但周一，标普又闪现出另一个麻烦的信号。该指数短暂跌破4,320点的100天移动均线。</blockquote></p><p> Now, the question is whether stocks will bounce back quickly or suffer a correction, defined as a 10% drop from a recent high. Frank Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet, is watching the 100-day moving average. As the market has fallen below these key levels, “You haven’t had the demand to buy [the] volatility,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>现在的问题是，股市是会迅速反弹还是会出现回调，回调的定义是从近期高点下跌10%。Instinet首席市场技术员Frank Cappelleri正在关注100日移动平均线。随着市场跌破这些关键水平，“你没有购买波动性的需求，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> If the S&amp;P 500 falls significantly below the 4230 level with a majority of the stocks on the index in the red, watch out for a correction. That would indicate that market participants still see large risks that aren’t reflected in stock prices.</p><p><blockquote>如果标普500大幅跌破4230点，指数上大多数股票都出现亏损，请留意回调。这表明市场参与者仍然看到了未反映在股价中的巨大风险。</blockquote></p><p> “Is it going to be a falling knife at that level? 1-2% down moves?” Cappelleri said. “[The] chances of an elongated volatility environment are higher.”</p><p><blockquote>“那个级别会是落刀吗？1-2%的下移？”卡佩莱里说。“长期波动环境的可能性更高。”</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, the S&amp;P 500 could be in for a quick pullback if it sees a move higher, a tiny move lower, or a drop where the majority of stocks on the index are rising. Any of those scenarios would signal optimism.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，如果指数中大多数股票上涨、小幅下跌或下跌，标普500可能会迅速回调。这些情况中的任何一种都是乐观的信号。</blockquote></p><p> “[The 4,320 level] can encourage some dip buying because the market has been so consistent this year,” said Cappelleri.</p><p><blockquote>Cappelleri表示：“[4,320点水平]可以鼓励一些逢低买盘，因为今年市场一直如此稳定。”</blockquote></p><p> Other analysts are watching, too. “We are placing a lot of weight on today’s price action,” wrote founder of Fairlead Strategies Katie Stockton, on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>其他分析师也在关注。Fairlead Strategies创始人凯蒂·斯托克顿(Katie Stockton)周一写道：“我们非常重视今天的价格走势。”</blockquote></p><p> Some good news for investors: The index closed Monday above that key level.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说，一些好消息是：该指数周一收于该关键水平之上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-correction-pullback-technical-levels-51632184898?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-correction-pullback-technical-levels-51632184898?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134768038","content_text":"Was Monday’s selloff indicative of the big stock market correction that Wall Street has been calling for? Analysts are watching a key level for clues.\nThe S&P 500 had its worst day in months Monday, tumbling 1.7%. Investors are also growing uncertain as the Federal Reserve’s meeting nears and negotiations over the Congressional budget and debt ceiling continue.\nFriday, the S&P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average, a technical indicator that shows investors are losing confidence in the market outlook. The S&P 500 is 3.9% below its all-time high as of Monday’s close, at its lowest level since mid-June.\nBut on Monday, the S&P flashed another troublesome signal. The index briefly fell below its 100-day moving average of 4,320.\nNow, the question is whether stocks will bounce back quickly or suffer a correction, defined as a 10% drop from a recent high. Frank Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet, is watching the 100-day moving average. As the market has fallen below these key levels, “You haven’t had the demand to buy [the] volatility,” he said.\nIf the S&P 500 falls significantly below the 4230 level with a majority of the stocks on the index in the red, watch out for a correction. That would indicate that market participants still see large risks that aren’t reflected in stock prices.\n“Is it going to be a falling knife at that level? 1-2% down moves?” Cappelleri said. “[The] chances of an elongated volatility environment are higher.”\nOn the other hand, the S&P 500 could be in for a quick pullback if it sees a move higher, a tiny move lower, or a drop where the majority of stocks on the index are rising. Any of those scenarios would signal optimism.\n“[The 4,320 level] can encourage some dip buying because the market has been so consistent this year,” said Cappelleri.\nOther analysts are watching, too. “We are placing a lot of weight on today’s price action,” wrote founder of Fairlead Strategies Katie Stockton, on Monday.\nSome good news for investors: The index closed Monday above that key level.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880362075,"gmtCreate":1631021344997,"gmtModify":1631890587393,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880362075","repostId":"880945915","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":880945915,"gmtCreate":1631014610934,"gmtModify":1631019364417,"author":{"id":"3568081734360099","authorId":"3568081734360099","name":"何安迪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02c7061d02e3c72d7ce21a375ae80cb6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568081734360099","idStr":"3568081734360099"},"themes":[],"title":"比特币最危险的实验开启，繁荣还是失败？","htmlText":"看到一条新闻，狗狗币的”老婆“Wifedoge，在过去7天价格翻了9倍。 一时间，我分辨不出，究竟是翻9倍对我的打击大，还是连狗狗币都脱单这个事儿对我的打击更大。 Wifedoge在今年7月推出，总供应量747千万亿枚，据它自己的推特账号称，其中5%的代币要留给马斯克。和Baby Doge（小狗狗币）同类，都是克隆狗狗币的加密货币，当然，暴涨暴跌也跟狗狗币基本如出一辙，8月底一天之内疯狂上涨3300%，然后市值又从232万美元狂泻到301406美元。 今天，比特币也有新闻。 比特币一项因对电力的过度浪费被人们诟病，过去5年，比特币挖矿消耗的电量已经增长了10倍。根据研究，比特币每年挖矿消耗的电力，相当于全球电力消费总量的0.5%，超过了芬兰550万人口使用的总电量，是谷歌全球业务用电量的7倍多，也大致相当于美国华盛顿州每年的用电量。 萨尔瓦多的总统表示，该国周一购买了400比特币，并且计划购买更多。总统布克尔表示，计划要求企业接受比特币来交换商品和服务，政府也接受比特币来支付税款。一来，这将吸引更多的人进入金融系统，使汇款更便宜，二来使用比特币作为法定货币，每年可以为萨尔瓦多人节省4亿美元的交易费用。 这件事，可以算得上是比特币最引人注目的考验，也是比特币首次作为法定货币。 萨尔瓦多是拉美地区最贫穷的国家之一，也因为内战被评为世界上最危险的地区之一，自2001年以来一直以美元作为官方货币，总人口约682万人，有超过200万的人口生活在国外，因此国家GDP的20%来自汇款，即从国外汇往国内的钱，每年汇回40多亿美元。 因为国家小，金融服务框架薄弱，国家希望通过比特币提升金融服务的水平，数字货币也可以让萨尔瓦多人避免寄钱回家的高昂费用。 但实际情况确是，国家连支持数字货币的基础设施都没有，大部分的人其实连比特币是什么都不清楚，更别说用比特币作为流通货币了。 不管怎样，无论是比特","listText":"看到一条新闻，狗狗币的”老婆“Wifedoge，在过去7天价格翻了9倍。 一时间，我分辨不出，究竟是翻9倍对我的打击大，还是连狗狗币都脱单这个事儿对我的打击更大。 Wifedoge在今年7月推出，总供应量747千万亿枚，据它自己的推特账号称，其中5%的代币要留给马斯克。和Baby Doge（小狗狗币）同类，都是克隆狗狗币的加密货币，当然，暴涨暴跌也跟狗狗币基本如出一辙，8月底一天之内疯狂上涨3300%，然后市值又从232万美元狂泻到301406美元。 今天，比特币也有新闻。 比特币一项因对电力的过度浪费被人们诟病，过去5年，比特币挖矿消耗的电量已经增长了10倍。根据研究，比特币每年挖矿消耗的电力，相当于全球电力消费总量的0.5%，超过了芬兰550万人口使用的总电量，是谷歌全球业务用电量的7倍多，也大致相当于美国华盛顿州每年的用电量。 萨尔瓦多的总统表示，该国周一购买了400比特币，并且计划购买更多。总统布克尔表示，计划要求企业接受比特币来交换商品和服务，政府也接受比特币来支付税款。一来，这将吸引更多的人进入金融系统，使汇款更便宜，二来使用比特币作为法定货币，每年可以为萨尔瓦多人节省4亿美元的交易费用。 这件事，可以算得上是比特币最引人注目的考验，也是比特币首次作为法定货币。 萨尔瓦多是拉美地区最贫穷的国家之一，也因为内战被评为世界上最危险的地区之一，自2001年以来一直以美元作为官方货币，总人口约682万人，有超过200万的人口生活在国外，因此国家GDP的20%来自汇款，即从国外汇往国内的钱，每年汇回40多亿美元。 因为国家小，金融服务框架薄弱，国家希望通过比特币提升金融服务的水平，数字货币也可以让萨尔瓦多人避免寄钱回家的高昂费用。 但实际情况确是，国家连支持数字货币的基础设施都没有，大部分的人其实连比特币是什么都不清楚，更别说用比特币作为流通货币了。 不管怎样，无论是比特","text":"看到一条新闻，狗狗币的”老婆“Wifedoge，在过去7天价格翻了9倍。 一时间，我分辨不出，究竟是翻9倍对我的打击大，还是连狗狗币都脱单这个事儿对我的打击更大。 Wifedoge在今年7月推出，总供应量747千万亿枚，据它自己的推特账号称，其中5%的代币要留给马斯克。和Baby Doge（小狗狗币）同类，都是克隆狗狗币的加密货币，当然，暴涨暴跌也跟狗狗币基本如出一辙，8月底一天之内疯狂上涨3300%，然后市值又从232万美元狂泻到301406美元。 今天，比特币也有新闻。 比特币一项因对电力的过度浪费被人们诟病，过去5年，比特币挖矿消耗的电量已经增长了10倍。根据研究，比特币每年挖矿消耗的电力，相当于全球电力消费总量的0.5%，超过了芬兰550万人口使用的总电量，是谷歌全球业务用电量的7倍多，也大致相当于美国华盛顿州每年的用电量。 萨尔瓦多的总统表示，该国周一购买了400比特币，并且计划购买更多。总统布克尔表示，计划要求企业接受比特币来交换商品和服务，政府也接受比特币来支付税款。一来，这将吸引更多的人进入金融系统，使汇款更便宜，二来使用比特币作为法定货币，每年可以为萨尔瓦多人节省4亿美元的交易费用。 这件事，可以算得上是比特币最引人注目的考验，也是比特币首次作为法定货币。 萨尔瓦多是拉美地区最贫穷的国家之一，也因为内战被评为世界上最危险的地区之一，自2001年以来一直以美元作为官方货币，总人口约682万人，有超过200万的人口生活在国外，因此国家GDP的20%来自汇款，即从国外汇往国内的钱，每年汇回40多亿美元。 因为国家小，金融服务框架薄弱，国家希望通过比特币提升金融服务的水平，数字货币也可以让萨尔瓦多人避免寄钱回家的高昂费用。 但实际情况确是，国家连支持数字货币的基础设施都没有，大部分的人其实连比特币是什么都不清楚，更别说用比特币作为流通货币了。 不管怎样，无论是比特","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdda03bba2f7d44c008564f63b7336a2","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880945915","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880366259,"gmtCreate":1631021323971,"gmtModify":1631890587394,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Author must have shorted it!","listText":"Author must have shorted it!","text":"Author must have shorted it!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880366259","repostId":"1132739446","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812928970,"gmtCreate":1630547608790,"gmtModify":1631890587397,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"All green","listText":"All green","text":"All green","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812928970","repostId":"1105808841","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105808841","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630547089,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105808841?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 09:44","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong: Shares extend gains at open<blockquote>香港：股市开盘延续涨势</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105808841","media":"AFP","summary":"[HONG KONG] Hong Kong stocks began with another advance on Thursday morning as investors bide their ","content":"<p>[HONG KONG] Hong Kong stocks began with another advance on Thursday morning as investors bide their time ahead of the release of key US jobs data at the end of the week.</p><p><blockquote>【香港】香港股市周四早盘再次上涨，投资者在周末美国关键就业数据公布前等待时机。</blockquote></p><p> The Hang Seng Index rose 0.67 per cent or 175.23 points to 26,203.52.</p><p><blockquote>恒生指数上涨0.67%，即175.23点，至26,203.52点。</blockquote></p><p> The Shanghai Composite dipped 0.20 per cent or 7.20 points to 3,559.90, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China's second exchange fell 0.22 per cent or 5.32 points to 2,412.57.</p><p><blockquote>上证综指下跌0.20%或7.20点，至3559.90点；中国第二交易所深圳综合指数下跌0.22%或5.32点，至2412.57点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1605843958005","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong: Shares extend gains at open<blockquote>香港：股市开盘延续涨势</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong: Shares extend gains at open<blockquote>香港：股市开盘延续涨势</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">AFP</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-02 09:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>[HONG KONG] Hong Kong stocks began with another advance on Thursday morning as investors bide their time ahead of the release of key US jobs data at the end of the week.</p><p><blockquote>【香港】香港股市周四早盘再次上涨，投资者在周末美国关键就业数据公布前等待时机。</blockquote></p><p> The Hang Seng Index rose 0.67 per cent or 175.23 points to 26,203.52.</p><p><blockquote>恒生指数上涨0.67%，即175.23点，至26,203.52点。</blockquote></p><p> The Shanghai Composite dipped 0.20 per cent or 7.20 points to 3,559.90, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China's second exchange fell 0.22 per cent or 5.32 points to 2,412.57.</p><p><blockquote>上证综指下跌0.20%或7.20点，至3559.90点；中国第二交易所深圳综合指数下跌0.22%或5.32点，至2412.57点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/hong-kong-shares-extend-gains-at-open-3\">AFP</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/hong-kong-shares-extend-gains-at-open-3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105808841","content_text":"[HONG KONG] Hong Kong stocks began with another advance on Thursday morning as investors bide their time ahead of the release of key US jobs data at the end of the week.\nThe Hang Seng Index rose 0.67 per cent or 175.23 points to 26,203.52.\nThe Shanghai Composite dipped 0.20 per cent or 7.20 points to 3,559.90, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China's second exchange fell 0.22 per cent or 5.32 points to 2,412.57.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816991787,"gmtCreate":1630459010949,"gmtModify":1631890587401,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816991787","repostId":"1192163327","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192163327","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630458553,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192163327?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-01 09:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's Why Support.com Stock Was Down Big Tuesday<blockquote>这就是Support.com股价周二大幅下跌的原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192163327","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Is the meme stock's incredible rally coming to an end?\n\nKey Points\n\nSupport.com is the latest super-","content":"<p>  <b>Is the meme stock's incredible rally coming to an end?</b>  <b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>迷因股票令人难以置信的涨势即将结束吗？</b><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Support.com is the latest super-hot meme stock, and the recent pullback doesn't necessarily indicate that its days of big gains are over.</li> </ul> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Support.com是最新的超级热门模因股票，最近的回调并不一定表明其大幅上涨的日子已经结束。</li></ul><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPRT\">Support.com</a></b> slumped by double digits in Tuesday's trading, ending the day down roughly 13.8%.</p><p><blockquote>本公司之股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPRT\">Support.com</a></b>周二交易中下跌两位数，收盘下跌约13.8%。</blockquote></p><p> The pullback for the stock has to be put in context. The company has recently attracted attention from Reddit's WallStreetBets board and other investors who favor meme stocks, and its share price has soared roughly 1,310% in 2021's trading despite today's sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>该股的回调必须放在背景中。该公司最近引起了Reddit的WallStreetBets董事会和其他青睐meme股票的投资者的关注，尽管今天遭到抛售，但其股价在2021年的交易中仍飙升了约1,310%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Is there anything about the company's core tech-support customer services and security software businesses driving the incredible rally? Probably not. Support is posting meager revenue, and its sales have slipped nearly 43% over the last three years.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的核心技术支持客户服务和安全软件业务是否推动了这一令人难以置信的反弹？应该不会吧。Support的收入微薄，过去三年销售额下降了近43%。</blockquote></p><p> Like&nbsp;<b>GameStop</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>&nbsp;before it, the stock has attracted investor attention due to its high short interest. The last couple of years have seen a surge of new activity among retail investors, and that's paved the way for a massive short squeeze as the social media spotlight and emerging popular sentiment have prompted stock buyers to pour into beaten-down, out-of-favor companies in pursuit of explosive returns.</p><p><blockquote>喜欢<b>游戏驿站</b>和<b>AMC院线控股</b>在此之前，该股因其较高的空头兴趣而备受投资者关注。过去几年，散户投资者的新活动激增，这为大规模的轧空铺平了道路，因为社交媒体的关注和新兴的大众情绪促使股票买家涌入遭受重创的、不受欢迎的公司追求爆炸性回报。</blockquote></p><p> Support's shareholders are also scheduled to vote on a potential merger with privately held&nbsp;<b>Bitcoin</b>&nbsp;miner Greenidge Generation on Sept. 10. With short squeeze momentum afoot and a potential push into crypto mining, shares could continue to be catnip for meme-stock investors.</p><p><blockquote>Support的股东还计划就与私营公司的潜在合并进行投票<b>比特币</b>9月10日，矿工格林里奇一代。随着轧空势头的出现以及对加密货币挖矿的潜在推动，该股可能会继续成为模因股票投资者的香饽饽。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> The company now has a market capitalization of roughly $759 million, which means that it's valued at roughly 19.5 times sales over the trailing-12-month period. That's a steep valuation for what otherwise looks to be a declining company, but conventional investing logic and valuation metrics sometimes go out the window in the era of meme momentum.</p><p><blockquote>该公司目前的市值约为7.59亿美元，这意味着其估值约为过去12个月销售额的19.5倍。对于一家看似衰落的公司来说，这是一个很高的估值，但在模因势头时代，传统的投资逻辑和估值指标有时会被抛在脑后。</blockquote></p><p> It's been a year of \"never say never\" for some meme stocks. AMC Entertainment, for example, is up roughly 2,150% in 2021 despite substantial new share offerings and a core business with a questionable long-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>对于一些模因股票来说，今年是“永不言败”的一年。例如，尽管AMC院线发行了大量新股，而且核心业务的长期前景值得怀疑，但其2021年股价仍上涨了约2,150%。</blockquote></p><p> History suggests that meme leaders will eventually feel the pull of gravity and come to trade closer in line with their underlying fundamentals. But you can't rule out the possibility that Support and other hot meme tickets will enjoy more big gains the near term.</p><p><blockquote>历史表明，模因领导者最终会感受到引力，并根据其潜在基本面进行更紧密的交易。但你不能排除支持和其他热门模因门票在短期内将享受更大收益的可能性。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why Support.com Stock Was Down Big Tuesday<blockquote>这就是Support.com股价周二大幅下跌的原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why Support.com Stock Was Down Big Tuesday<blockquote>这就是Support.com股价周二大幅下跌的原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-01 09:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Is the meme stock's incredible rally coming to an end?</b>  <b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>迷因股票令人难以置信的涨势即将结束吗？</b><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Support.com is the latest super-hot meme stock, and the recent pullback doesn't necessarily indicate that its days of big gains are over.</li> </ul> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Support.com是最新的超级热门模因股票，最近的回调并不一定表明其大幅上涨的日子已经结束。</li></ul><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPRT\">Support.com</a></b> slumped by double digits in Tuesday's trading, ending the day down roughly 13.8%.</p><p><blockquote>本公司之股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPRT\">Support.com</a></b>周二交易中下跌两位数，收盘下跌约13.8%。</blockquote></p><p> The pullback for the stock has to be put in context. The company has recently attracted attention from Reddit's WallStreetBets board and other investors who favor meme stocks, and its share price has soared roughly 1,310% in 2021's trading despite today's sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>该股的回调必须放在背景中。该公司最近引起了Reddit的WallStreetBets董事会和其他青睐meme股票的投资者的关注，尽管今天遭到抛售，但其股价在2021年的交易中仍飙升了约1,310%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Is there anything about the company's core tech-support customer services and security software businesses driving the incredible rally? Probably not. Support is posting meager revenue, and its sales have slipped nearly 43% over the last three years.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的核心技术支持客户服务和安全软件业务是否推动了这一令人难以置信的反弹？应该不会吧。Support的收入微薄，过去三年销售额下降了近43%。</blockquote></p><p> Like&nbsp;<b>GameStop</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>&nbsp;before it, the stock has attracted investor attention due to its high short interest. The last couple of years have seen a surge of new activity among retail investors, and that's paved the way for a massive short squeeze as the social media spotlight and emerging popular sentiment have prompted stock buyers to pour into beaten-down, out-of-favor companies in pursuit of explosive returns.</p><p><blockquote>喜欢<b>游戏驿站</b>和<b>AMC院线控股</b>在此之前，该股因其较高的空头兴趣而备受投资者关注。过去几年，散户投资者的新活动激增，这为大规模的轧空铺平了道路，因为社交媒体的关注和新兴的大众情绪促使股票买家涌入遭受重创的、不受欢迎的公司追求爆炸性回报。</blockquote></p><p> Support's shareholders are also scheduled to vote on a potential merger with privately held&nbsp;<b>Bitcoin</b>&nbsp;miner Greenidge Generation on Sept. 10. With short squeeze momentum afoot and a potential push into crypto mining, shares could continue to be catnip for meme-stock investors.</p><p><blockquote>Support的股东还计划就与私营公司的潜在合并进行投票<b>比特币</b>9月10日，矿工格林里奇一代。随着轧空势头的出现以及对加密货币挖矿的潜在推动，该股可能会继续成为模因股票投资者的香饽饽。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> The company now has a market capitalization of roughly $759 million, which means that it's valued at roughly 19.5 times sales over the trailing-12-month period. That's a steep valuation for what otherwise looks to be a declining company, but conventional investing logic and valuation metrics sometimes go out the window in the era of meme momentum.</p><p><blockquote>该公司目前的市值约为7.59亿美元，这意味着其估值约为过去12个月销售额的19.5倍。对于一家看似衰落的公司来说，这是一个很高的估值，但在模因势头时代，传统的投资逻辑和估值指标有时会被抛在脑后。</blockquote></p><p> It's been a year of \"never say never\" for some meme stocks. AMC Entertainment, for example, is up roughly 2,150% in 2021 despite substantial new share offerings and a core business with a questionable long-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>对于一些模因股票来说，今年是“永不言败”的一年。例如，尽管AMC院线发行了大量新股，而且核心业务的长期前景值得怀疑，但其2021年股价仍上涨了约2,150%。</blockquote></p><p> History suggests that meme leaders will eventually feel the pull of gravity and come to trade closer in line with their underlying fundamentals. But you can't rule out the possibility that Support and other hot meme tickets will enjoy more big gains the near term.</p><p><blockquote>历史表明，模因领导者最终会感受到引力，并根据其潜在基本面进行更紧密的交易。但你不能排除支持和其他热门模因门票在短期内将享受更大收益的可能性。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/31/heres-why-supportcom-stock-was-down-big-today/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPRT":"Support.com"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/31/heres-why-supportcom-stock-was-down-big-today/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192163327","content_text":"Is the meme stock's incredible rally coming to an end?\n\nKey Points\n\nSupport.com is the latest super-hot meme stock, and the recent pullback doesn't necessarily indicate that its days of big gains are over.\n\nWhat happened\nShares of Support.com slumped by double digits in Tuesday's trading, ending the day down roughly 13.8%.\nThe pullback for the stock has to be put in context. The company has recently attracted attention from Reddit's WallStreetBets board and other investors who favor meme stocks, and its share price has soared roughly 1,310% in 2021's trading despite today's sell-off.\nSo what\nIs there anything about the company's core tech-support customer services and security software businesses driving the incredible rally? Probably not. Support is posting meager revenue, and its sales have slipped nearly 43% over the last three years.\nLike GameStop and AMC Entertainment Holdings before it, the stock has attracted investor attention due to its high short interest. The last couple of years have seen a surge of new activity among retail investors, and that's paved the way for a massive short squeeze as the social media spotlight and emerging popular sentiment have prompted stock buyers to pour into beaten-down, out-of-favor companies in pursuit of explosive returns.\nSupport's shareholders are also scheduled to vote on a potential merger with privately held Bitcoin miner Greenidge Generation on Sept. 10. With short squeeze momentum afoot and a potential push into crypto mining, shares could continue to be catnip for meme-stock investors.\nNow what\nThe company now has a market capitalization of roughly $759 million, which means that it's valued at roughly 19.5 times sales over the trailing-12-month period. That's a steep valuation for what otherwise looks to be a declining company, but conventional investing logic and valuation metrics sometimes go out the window in the era of meme momentum.\nIt's been a year of \"never say never\" for some meme stocks. AMC Entertainment, for example, is up roughly 2,150% in 2021 despite substantial new share offerings and a core business with a questionable long-term outlook.\nHistory suggests that meme leaders will eventually feel the pull of gravity and come to trade closer in line with their underlying fundamentals. But you can't rule out the possibility that Support and other hot meme tickets will enjoy more big gains the near term.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPRT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836445675,"gmtCreate":1629518398097,"gmtModify":1631890587403,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836445675","repostId":"1107075259","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107075259","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629509852,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107075259?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-21 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略Elon Musk跳舞的干扰，面对特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107075259","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.$Investors$ should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.At $Tesla Motors$’s AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said th","content":"<p>  <b>Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.</b>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.</p><p><blockquote><b>对自动驾驶系统的调查以及这家电动汽车公司及其首席执行官就此发表的声明比他们最新的异想天开的技术愿望和时间表更值得关注。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>应该忽略Elon Musk的最新舞蹈，而是关注特斯拉因首席执行官夸大其公司技术能力而面临的日益严重的问题。</blockquote></p><p> At <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>’s&nbsp;AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”</p><p><blockquote>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>周四晚些时候，自称Technoking Musk的马斯克表示，该公司正在开发一款人形机器人，因为“特斯拉可以说是世界上最大的机器人公司，因为我们的汽车就像轮子上的半感知机器人。”</blockquote></p><p> After a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.</p><p><blockquote>在一名身穿白色西装的人类为观众和直播中的信徒跳了一支简短的舞蹈后，马斯克走上舞台，只展示了一个5英尺8英寸的人形机器人的计算机生成图像，马斯克声称特斯拉将在明年的某个时候生产出一个原型。他推断它可以用于制造或无聊的重复性任务，例如杂货店购物，并且将配备全自动驾驶计算机。</blockquote></p><p> As always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.</p><p><blockquote>和马斯克和特斯拉一样，对于任何对相关技术有基本了解的人来说，时间表都是非常值得怀疑的。幸运的是，这些滑稽动作并没有愚弄华尔街的所有人，其中一些人可能已经厌倦了他的恶作剧。</blockquote></p><p> “Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for&nbsp;Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“不幸的是，正如我们在机器人出租车和马斯克未来的其他科幻项目中所看到的那样，我们认为这款特斯拉机器人绝对令人挠头，在华尔街对电动汽车竞争和安全日益担忧之际，它将进一步激怒投资者。特斯拉的问题，”韦德布什证券分析师Dan Ives在周五早些时候给客户的一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> The safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯提到的安全问题是投资者现在应该关注的问题，因为政府似乎终于站出来并注意到本专栏长期以来指出的一个问题：马斯克一再高估其汽车自动驾驶先进技术的当前和近期潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>在周四“人工智能日”奇观的前一天，两名美国参议员要求联邦贸易委员会调查特斯拉和马斯克在特斯拉“全自动驾驶”产品营销方面“一再夸大其车辆功能”的行为。特斯拉对远未完全自动驾驶的软件在购买时收取数千美元（或每月低至100美元）的费用，这种做法已经导致加州机动车辆管理局最近进行审查，德国裁定特斯拉不能销售该产品本身。</blockquote></p><p> “Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> University in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”</p><p><blockquote>“语言很重要，”塞利卡·塔尔博特(Selika Talbott)说。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>大学在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>直流电。“这个术语的使用是错误的、误导性的，对公众来说是不安全的。辅助驾驶和自动驾驶汽车的概念及其区别并没有被公众完全理解。”</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.</p><p><blockquote>塔尔博特说：“特斯拉在他们的车辆中配备了高度辅助技术，但任何驾驶人员都不应该认为车辆可以自动驾驶，因为它不能。”</blockquote></p><p> The week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">Highway</a> Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">Advanced</a> Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始，有消息称，使用该功能的汽车撞上了停下来的紧急车辆，联邦政府对特斯拉的自动驾驶系统进行了调查。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">公路</a>交通安全管理局正在调查一系列启用了高级驾驶员辅助系统的特斯拉汽车发生的撞车事故。NHTSA表示，已对11起涉及紧急车辆的特斯拉事故展开调查，同时仍在调查一系列涉及启用紧急车辆的汽车的碰撞事故<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">先进的</a>驾驶员辅助系统（ADAS）和牵引车拖车。</blockquote></p><p> The latest outcry on Capitol <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">Hill</a> follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.</p><p><blockquote>国会大厦的最新抗议<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">山丘</a>关注一系列新闻报道和/或社交媒体帖子和YouTube视频，这些视频显示司机在测试特斯拉的所谓自动驾驶功能时做出了极其危险的行为。今年5月，加利福尼亚州丰塔纳市35岁的两个孩子的父亲Steven Michael Hendrickson在他的特斯拉撞上一辆翻倒的半挂卡车时死亡。早些时候，他发布了在高速公路上双手不放在方向盘上驾驶的视频，但NHTSA仍在调查自动驾驶仪在事故中的作用。</blockquote></p><p> “The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”</p><p><blockquote>“特斯拉正在生产的车辆是驾驶辅助系统，”麻省理工学院运输和物流中心的研究科学家布莱恩·赖默说。“他们在协助司机，司机需要保持警惕。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，特斯拉具有误导性名称的双产品之间的差异。“Autopilot”是一种ADAS系统，是一种高度先进的巡航控制版本，适用于高速公路驾驶，使“您的汽车能够在您的主动监督下在车道内自动转向、加速和制动，协助驾驶中最繁重的部分”。特斯拉的网站。特斯拉还提供“FSD”套餐，现在每月订阅费用为99至199美元，其将其描述为“访问一套更先进的驾驶员辅助功能，旨在在您的主动监督下提供更主动的指导和辅助驾驶。”</blockquote></p><p> If only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>要是马斯克用和官网类似的方式描述这些系统就好了。在评级分析师会议上以及特斯拉向其粉丝群进行的长达数小时的演示中，马斯克一直宣称，有了这款软件，完全自主指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> “We&nbsp;basically&nbsp;have&nbsp;to&nbsp;solve&nbsp;real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we&nbsp;will&nbsp;get&nbsp;this&nbsp;done.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们基本上必须解决现实世界的视觉人工智能，我们确实做到了，”他在4月份的财报看涨期权上表示。“解决这个问题的关键还在于拥有一些大规模的数据集。所以只要有足够的数据集<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>道路上有数百万辆汽车正在收集数据……但我非常有信心我们能够完成这项工作。”</blockquote></p><p> But for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>但尽管马斯克夸夸其谈，拥有庞大的粉丝群，但投资者开始注意到，与其他正在测试自动驾驶汽车的公司相比，该公司涉及全自动驾驶技术的策略是危险的。</blockquote></p><p> For example, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.</p><p><blockquote>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>Inc.旗下的GOOGGOOGLWaymo是自动驾驶汽车时间最长的公司，目前正在亚利桑那州凤凰城周围人口不稠密的地区运营小规模机器人出租车服务，没有人类司机。这是美国唯一一家此类公司。在加利福尼亚州，Waymo获得了DMV的许可，可以在人类驾驶员驾驶的情况下进行AV测试。</blockquote></p><p> “Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">American</a> University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”</p><p><blockquote>“Waymo不能开始向任何人出售他们的自动驾驶汽车，他们也不能只是在道路上驾驶它们，我们的监管体系不允许这样做，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">美国的</a>大学表示。“你可以测试它们，但市场上没有公开的自动驾驶汽车可供购买，因为它不存在。”</blockquote></p><p> With FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.</p><p><blockquote>随着FSD测试在现实世界中由未经训练的驾驶员进行，特斯拉正在进行相当于新药临床试验的试验，而无需对患者进行任何专业的每小时或每天监测。</blockquote></p><p> “They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.</p><p><blockquote>“他们称之为测试版，这是一个测试版系统，他们让人们面临重大风险，”赖默说。</blockquote></p><p> Musk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克的最新机器人是另一个干扰，就像他的Boring Company在2018年出售的火焰喷射器、他试图帮助被困在泰国洞穴中的男孩的不必要的帮助以及其他项目一样。投资者不应该让这些干扰妨碍马斯克似乎拒绝承认的真正问题，因为他继续夸大公司的技术能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略Elon Musk跳舞的干扰，面对特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIgnore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略Elon Musk跳舞的干扰，面对特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-21 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.</b>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.</p><p><blockquote><b>对自动驾驶系统的调查以及这家电动汽车公司及其首席执行官就此发表的声明比他们最新的异想天开的技术愿望和时间表更值得关注。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>应该忽略Elon Musk的最新舞蹈，而是关注特斯拉因首席执行官夸大其公司技术能力而面临的日益严重的问题。</blockquote></p><p> At <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>’s&nbsp;AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”</p><p><blockquote>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>周四晚些时候，自称Technoking Musk的马斯克表示，该公司正在开发一款人形机器人，因为“特斯拉可以说是世界上最大的机器人公司，因为我们的汽车就像轮子上的半感知机器人。”</blockquote></p><p> After a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.</p><p><blockquote>在一名身穿白色西装的人类为观众和直播中的信徒跳了一支简短的舞蹈后，马斯克走上舞台，只展示了一个5英尺8英寸的人形机器人的计算机生成图像，马斯克声称特斯拉将在明年的某个时候生产出一个原型。他推断它可以用于制造或无聊的重复性任务，例如杂货店购物，并且将配备全自动驾驶计算机。</blockquote></p><p> As always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.</p><p><blockquote>和马斯克和特斯拉一样，对于任何对相关技术有基本了解的人来说，时间表都是非常值得怀疑的。幸运的是，这些滑稽动作并没有愚弄华尔街的所有人，其中一些人可能已经厌倦了他的恶作剧。</blockquote></p><p> “Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for&nbsp;Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“不幸的是，正如我们在机器人出租车和马斯克未来的其他科幻项目中所看到的那样，我们认为这款特斯拉机器人绝对令人挠头，在华尔街对电动汽车竞争和安全日益担忧之际，它将进一步激怒投资者。特斯拉的问题，”韦德布什证券分析师Dan Ives在周五早些时候给客户的一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> The safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯提到的安全问题是投资者现在应该关注的问题，因为政府似乎终于站出来并注意到本专栏长期以来指出的一个问题：马斯克一再高估其汽车自动驾驶先进技术的当前和近期潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>在周四“人工智能日”奇观的前一天，两名美国参议员要求联邦贸易委员会调查特斯拉和马斯克在特斯拉“全自动驾驶”产品营销方面“一再夸大其车辆功能”的行为。特斯拉对远未完全自动驾驶的软件在购买时收取数千美元（或每月低至100美元）的费用，这种做法已经导致加州机动车辆管理局最近进行审查，德国裁定特斯拉不能销售该产品本身。</blockquote></p><p> “Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> University in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”</p><p><blockquote>“语言很重要，”塞利卡·塔尔博特(Selika Talbott)说。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>大学在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>直流电。“这个术语的使用是错误的、误导性的，对公众来说是不安全的。辅助驾驶和自动驾驶汽车的概念及其区别并没有被公众完全理解。”</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.</p><p><blockquote>塔尔博特说：“特斯拉在他们的车辆中配备了高度辅助技术，但任何驾驶人员都不应该认为车辆可以自动驾驶，因为它不能。”</blockquote></p><p> The week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">Highway</a> Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">Advanced</a> Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始，有消息称，使用该功能的汽车撞上了停下来的紧急车辆，联邦政府对特斯拉的自动驾驶系统进行了调查。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">公路</a>交通安全管理局正在调查一系列启用了高级驾驶员辅助系统的特斯拉汽车发生的撞车事故。NHTSA表示，已对11起涉及紧急车辆的特斯拉事故展开调查，同时仍在调查一系列涉及启用紧急车辆的汽车的碰撞事故<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">先进的</a>驾驶员辅助系统（ADAS）和牵引车拖车。</blockquote></p><p> The latest outcry on Capitol <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">Hill</a> follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.</p><p><blockquote>国会大厦的最新抗议<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">山丘</a>关注一系列新闻报道和/或社交媒体帖子和YouTube视频，这些视频显示司机在测试特斯拉的所谓自动驾驶功能时做出了极其危险的行为。今年5月，加利福尼亚州丰塔纳市35岁的两个孩子的父亲Steven Michael Hendrickson在他的特斯拉撞上一辆翻倒的半挂卡车时死亡。早些时候，他发布了在高速公路上双手不放在方向盘上驾驶的视频，但NHTSA仍在调查自动驾驶仪在事故中的作用。</blockquote></p><p> “The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”</p><p><blockquote>“特斯拉正在生产的车辆是驾驶辅助系统，”麻省理工学院运输和物流中心的研究科学家布莱恩·赖默说。“他们在协助司机，司机需要保持警惕。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，特斯拉具有误导性名称的双产品之间的差异。“Autopilot”是一种ADAS系统，是一种高度先进的巡航控制版本，适用于高速公路驾驶，使“您的汽车能够在您的主动监督下在车道内自动转向、加速和制动，协助驾驶中最繁重的部分”。特斯拉的网站。特斯拉还提供“FSD”套餐，现在每月订阅费用为99至199美元，其将其描述为“访问一套更先进的驾驶员辅助功能，旨在在您的主动监督下提供更主动的指导和辅助驾驶。”</blockquote></p><p> If only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>要是马斯克用和官网类似的方式描述这些系统就好了。在评级分析师会议上以及特斯拉向其粉丝群进行的长达数小时的演示中，马斯克一直宣称，有了这款软件，完全自主指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> “We&nbsp;basically&nbsp;have&nbsp;to&nbsp;solve&nbsp;real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we&nbsp;will&nbsp;get&nbsp;this&nbsp;done.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们基本上必须解决现实世界的视觉人工智能，我们确实做到了，”他在4月份的财报看涨期权上表示。“解决这个问题的关键还在于拥有一些大规模的数据集。所以只要有足够的数据集<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>道路上有数百万辆汽车正在收集数据……但我非常有信心我们能够完成这项工作。”</blockquote></p><p> But for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>但尽管马斯克夸夸其谈，拥有庞大的粉丝群，但投资者开始注意到，与其他正在测试自动驾驶汽车的公司相比，该公司涉及全自动驾驶技术的策略是危险的。</blockquote></p><p> For example, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.</p><p><blockquote>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>Inc.旗下的GOOGGOOGLWaymo是自动驾驶汽车时间最长的公司，目前正在亚利桑那州凤凰城周围人口不稠密的地区运营小规模机器人出租车服务，没有人类司机。这是美国唯一一家此类公司。在加利福尼亚州，Waymo获得了DMV的许可，可以在人类驾驶员驾驶的情况下进行AV测试。</blockquote></p><p> “Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">American</a> University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”</p><p><blockquote>“Waymo不能开始向任何人出售他们的自动驾驶汽车，他们也不能只是在道路上驾驶它们，我们的监管体系不允许这样做，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">美国的</a>大学表示。“你可以测试它们，但市场上没有公开的自动驾驶汽车可供购买，因为它不存在。”</blockquote></p><p> With FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.</p><p><blockquote>随着FSD测试在现实世界中由未经训练的驾驶员进行，特斯拉正在进行相当于新药临床试验的试验，而无需对患者进行任何专业的每小时或每天监测。</blockquote></p><p> “They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.</p><p><blockquote>“他们称之为测试版，这是一个测试版系统，他们让人们面临重大风险，”赖默说。</blockquote></p><p> Musk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克的最新机器人是另一个干扰，就像他的Boring Company在2018年出售的火焰喷射器、他试图帮助被困在泰国洞穴中的男孩的不必要的帮助以及其他项目一样。投资者不应该让这些干扰妨碍马斯克似乎拒绝承认的真正问题，因为他继续夸大公司的技术能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ignore-elon-musks-dancing-distraction-and-face-the-dangers-ahead-for-tesla-11629488276?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ignore-elon-musks-dancing-distraction-and-face-the-dangers-ahead-for-tesla-11629488276?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1107075259","content_text":"Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.\n\nInvestors should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.\nAt Tesla Motors’s AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”\nAfter a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.\nAs always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.\n“Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this Tesla Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.\nThe safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.\nJust a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.\n“Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at American University in Washington DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”\n“Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.\nThe week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.\nThe latest outcry on Capitol Hill follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.\n“The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”\nIt is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”\nIf only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.\n“We basically have to solve real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over one million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we will get this done.”\nBut for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.\nFor example, Alphabet Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.\n“Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of American University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”\nWith FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.\n“They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.\nMusk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":739,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836159036,"gmtCreate":1629466734125,"gmtModify":1631890587414,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Doubt","listText":"Doubt","text":"Doubt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836159036","repostId":"2160971198","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831767023,"gmtCreate":1629350721662,"gmtModify":1631890587410,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If you dare&nbsp;","listText":"If you dare&nbsp;","text":"If you dare","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831767023","repostId":"1152703663","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":692,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839507822,"gmtCreate":1629164670366,"gmtModify":1631888360748,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree","listText":"Agree","text":"Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839507822","repostId":"1133874781","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133874781","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629164267,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133874781?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons To Buy Apple Stock Over Amazon<blockquote>购买苹果股票而不是亚马逊的3个理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133874781","media":"TheStreet","summary":"The Apple Maven presents three reasons why Apple stock may be a better pick than Amazon today.\nAmazo","content":"<p>The Apple Maven presents three reasons why Apple stock may be a better pick than Amazon today.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家提出了苹果股票今天可能比亚马逊更好的选择的三个原因。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon&nbsp;or Apple stock? Maybe picking one over the other might not make too much difference, since both have behaved similarly, especially in the past year or two. See the rolling one-year correlation chart below – the closer to +1, the closer the stocks’ daily returns track each other.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊还是苹果股票？也许选择一个而不是另一个可能不会有太大的区别，因为两者的表现都很相似，尤其是在过去的一两年里。请参阅下面的滚动一年相关图-越接近+1，股票的每日回报就越接近。</blockquote></p><p> But today, the Apple Maven presents three reasons why AAPL may be a better bet compared to its peer AMZN. For those interested, our sister channel&nbsp;Amazon Maven will soon take the other side&nbsp;of the argument. Check out both theses to determine which makes most sense.</p><p><blockquote>但今天，这位苹果专家提出了为什么与同行亚马逊相比，苹果公司可能是更好的选择的三个原因。对于那些感兴趣的人来说，我们的姐妹频道亚马逊Maven将很快站在争论的另一边。检查这两篇论文，确定哪一篇最有意义。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2842dada1100f7fa50ce607c91359294\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"429\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: One-year rolling correlation, AAPL vs. AMZN.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：一年滚动相关性，AAPL与AMZN。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. Post-pandemic outperformer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.大流行后表现出色</b></blockquote></p><p> Since reporting Q2 earnings, Amazon stock has failed to gain any lift. The culprit has been a sharp deceleration in the online store’s revenue growth rate. Amazon has proved that the pandemic period was particularly beneficial for the company’s e-commerce business, but that the party might be over.</p><p><blockquote>自公布第二季度财报以来，亚马逊股价未能上涨。罪魁祸首是网店收入增速大幅放缓。亚马逊已经证明，疫情时期对该公司的电子商务业务特别有利，但派对可能已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> The opposite has happened to Apple. While the more pessimistic analysts believed that the post-pandemic environment would be a headwind to the company’s financial performance,Apple proved them wrong: astounding revenue and earnings growth of 36% and 101%, respectively, in fiscal Q3.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的情况正好相反。虽然更悲观的分析师认为大流行后的环境将成为公司财务业绩的阻力，但苹果证明他们错了：第三财季的收入和盈利分别增长了36%和101%，令人震惊。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addc3e819f69d2aa771eb0cbf30a7d02\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"456\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: FQ3 2021 revenue growth by geo segment.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：2021年第三季度按地理细分市场划分的收入增长。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#2. Valuations more appealing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2.估值更具吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> In absolute terms, it is undeniable that Apple stock is a more affordable play than Amazon. The chart below shows how AMZN is substantially more richly valued than Apple, both in terms of trailing earnings (nearly twice more expensive) and free cash flow (substantially more expensive).</p><p><blockquote>从绝对值来看，不可否认的是，苹果的股票比亚马逊更实惠。下图显示了亚马逊的估值如何远高于苹果，无论是在往绩收益（贵近两倍）还是自由现金流（贵得多）方面。</blockquote></p><p> In an environment in which assets are not priced for perfection, paying a bit more for what one might consider a better stock could make sense. But during a period like the current one, in which equity valuations seem stretched thin, being a bit more conservative on the price tag may be the best approach.</p><p><blockquote>在资产定价并不完美的环境中，为人们可能认为更好的股票多付一点钱可能是有意义的。但在像当前这样股票估值似乎过低的时期，在价格标签上更加保守可能是最好的方法。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bbc5964d65a7779bfa877427132d2f5\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL and AMZN's valuation.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：AAPL和AMZN的估值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#3. Underappreciated growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3.增长被低估</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, Amazon has been growing its top and bottom lines at a faster pace than Apple – and analysts expect this to still be the case going forward,according to Seeking Alpha. However, while Amazon’s growth opportunities in e-commerce and cloud seem to be well-understood, Apple stock price may not properly reflect the company’s two- to five-year growth potential.</p><p><blockquote>最后，根据Seeking Alpha的数据，亚马逊的营收和利润增长速度一直快于苹果，分析师预计未来情况仍将如此。然而，尽管亚马逊在电子商务和云领域的增长机会似乎众所周知，但苹果股价可能无法正确反映该公司两到五年的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> The Cupertino company could be&nbsp;introducing a new mixed reality headset&nbsp;next year or in 2023,followed by an Apple Car&nbsp;that could drastically change (improve?) the company’s financial performance.Valued at an attractive current-year P/E of 25 times, I suspect that the market has not properly factored these opportunities into the share price.</p><p><blockquote>这家库比蒂诺公司可能会在明年或2023年推出一款新的混合现实耳机，随后推出一款苹果汽车，这可能会极大地改变（改善？）该公司的财务业绩。今年市盈率为25倍，颇具吸引力，我怀疑市场没有正确地将这些机会纳入股价中。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons To Buy Apple Stock Over Amazon<blockquote>购买苹果股票而不是亚马逊的3个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons To Buy Apple Stock Over Amazon<blockquote>购买苹果股票而不是亚马逊的3个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-17 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Apple Maven presents three reasons why Apple stock may be a better pick than Amazon today.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家提出了苹果股票今天可能比亚马逊更好的选择的三个原因。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon&nbsp;or Apple stock? Maybe picking one over the other might not make too much difference, since both have behaved similarly, especially in the past year or two. See the rolling one-year correlation chart below – the closer to +1, the closer the stocks’ daily returns track each other.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊还是苹果股票？也许选择一个而不是另一个可能不会有太大的区别，因为两者的表现都很相似，尤其是在过去的一两年里。请参阅下面的滚动一年相关图-越接近+1，股票的每日回报就越接近。</blockquote></p><p> But today, the Apple Maven presents three reasons why AAPL may be a better bet compared to its peer AMZN. For those interested, our sister channel&nbsp;Amazon Maven will soon take the other side&nbsp;of the argument. Check out both theses to determine which makes most sense.</p><p><blockquote>但今天，这位苹果专家提出了为什么与同行亚马逊相比，苹果公司可能是更好的选择的三个原因。对于那些感兴趣的人来说，我们的姐妹频道亚马逊Maven将很快站在争论的另一边。检查这两篇论文，确定哪一篇最有意义。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2842dada1100f7fa50ce607c91359294\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"429\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: One-year rolling correlation, AAPL vs. AMZN.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：一年滚动相关性，AAPL与AMZN。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. Post-pandemic outperformer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.大流行后表现出色</b></blockquote></p><p> Since reporting Q2 earnings, Amazon stock has failed to gain any lift. The culprit has been a sharp deceleration in the online store’s revenue growth rate. Amazon has proved that the pandemic period was particularly beneficial for the company’s e-commerce business, but that the party might be over.</p><p><blockquote>自公布第二季度财报以来，亚马逊股价未能上涨。罪魁祸首是网店收入增速大幅放缓。亚马逊已经证明，疫情时期对该公司的电子商务业务特别有利，但派对可能已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> The opposite has happened to Apple. While the more pessimistic analysts believed that the post-pandemic environment would be a headwind to the company’s financial performance,Apple proved them wrong: astounding revenue and earnings growth of 36% and 101%, respectively, in fiscal Q3.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的情况正好相反。虽然更悲观的分析师认为大流行后的环境将成为公司财务业绩的阻力，但苹果证明他们错了：第三财季的收入和盈利分别增长了36%和101%，令人震惊。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addc3e819f69d2aa771eb0cbf30a7d02\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"456\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: FQ3 2021 revenue growth by geo segment.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：2021年第三季度按地理细分市场划分的收入增长。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#2. Valuations more appealing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2.估值更具吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> In absolute terms, it is undeniable that Apple stock is a more affordable play than Amazon. The chart below shows how AMZN is substantially more richly valued than Apple, both in terms of trailing earnings (nearly twice more expensive) and free cash flow (substantially more expensive).</p><p><blockquote>从绝对值来看，不可否认的是，苹果的股票比亚马逊更实惠。下图显示了亚马逊的估值如何远高于苹果，无论是在往绩收益（贵近两倍）还是自由现金流（贵得多）方面。</blockquote></p><p> In an environment in which assets are not priced for perfection, paying a bit more for what one might consider a better stock could make sense. But during a period like the current one, in which equity valuations seem stretched thin, being a bit more conservative on the price tag may be the best approach.</p><p><blockquote>在资产定价并不完美的环境中，为人们可能认为更好的股票多付一点钱可能是有意义的。但在像当前这样股票估值似乎过低的时期，在价格标签上更加保守可能是最好的方法。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bbc5964d65a7779bfa877427132d2f5\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL and AMZN's valuation.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：AAPL和AMZN的估值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#3. Underappreciated growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3.增长被低估</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, Amazon has been growing its top and bottom lines at a faster pace than Apple – and analysts expect this to still be the case going forward,according to Seeking Alpha. However, while Amazon’s growth opportunities in e-commerce and cloud seem to be well-understood, Apple stock price may not properly reflect the company’s two- to five-year growth potential.</p><p><blockquote>最后，根据Seeking Alpha的数据，亚马逊的营收和利润增长速度一直快于苹果，分析师预计未来情况仍将如此。然而，尽管亚马逊在电子商务和云领域的增长机会似乎众所周知，但苹果股价可能无法正确反映该公司两到五年的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> The Cupertino company could be&nbsp;introducing a new mixed reality headset&nbsp;next year or in 2023,followed by an Apple Car&nbsp;that could drastically change (improve?) the company’s financial performance.Valued at an attractive current-year P/E of 25 times, I suspect that the market has not properly factored these opportunities into the share price.</p><p><blockquote>这家库比蒂诺公司可能会在明年或2023年推出一款新的混合现实耳机，随后推出一款苹果汽车，这可能会极大地改变（改善？）该公司的财务业绩。今年市盈率为25倍，颇具吸引力，我怀疑市场没有正确地将这些机会纳入股价中。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/3-reasons-to-buy-apple-stock-over-amazon\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/3-reasons-to-buy-apple-stock-over-amazon","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133874781","content_text":"The Apple Maven presents three reasons why Apple stock may be a better pick than Amazon today.\nAmazon or Apple stock? Maybe picking one over the other might not make too much difference, since both have behaved similarly, especially in the past year or two. See the rolling one-year correlation chart below – the closer to +1, the closer the stocks’ daily returns track each other.\nBut today, the Apple Maven presents three reasons why AAPL may be a better bet compared to its peer AMZN. For those interested, our sister channel Amazon Maven will soon take the other side of the argument. Check out both theses to determine which makes most sense.\nFigure 1: One-year rolling correlation, AAPL vs. AMZN.\n#1. Post-pandemic outperformer\nSince reporting Q2 earnings, Amazon stock has failed to gain any lift. The culprit has been a sharp deceleration in the online store’s revenue growth rate. Amazon has proved that the pandemic period was particularly beneficial for the company’s e-commerce business, but that the party might be over.\nThe opposite has happened to Apple. While the more pessimistic analysts believed that the post-pandemic environment would be a headwind to the company’s financial performance,Apple proved them wrong: astounding revenue and earnings growth of 36% and 101%, respectively, in fiscal Q3.\nFigure 2: FQ3 2021 revenue growth by geo segment.\n#2. Valuations more appealing\nIn absolute terms, it is undeniable that Apple stock is a more affordable play than Amazon. The chart below shows how AMZN is substantially more richly valued than Apple, both in terms of trailing earnings (nearly twice more expensive) and free cash flow (substantially more expensive).\nIn an environment in which assets are not priced for perfection, paying a bit more for what one might consider a better stock could make sense. But during a period like the current one, in which equity valuations seem stretched thin, being a bit more conservative on the price tag may be the best approach.\nFigure 3: AAPL and AMZN's valuation.\n#3. Underappreciated growth\nLastly, Amazon has been growing its top and bottom lines at a faster pace than Apple – and analysts expect this to still be the case going forward,according to Seeking Alpha. However, while Amazon’s growth opportunities in e-commerce and cloud seem to be well-understood, Apple stock price may not properly reflect the company’s two- to five-year growth potential.\nThe Cupertino company could be introducing a new mixed reality headset next year or in 2023,followed by an Apple Car that could drastically change (improve?) the company’s financial performance.Valued at an attractive current-year P/E of 25 times, I suspect that the market has not properly factored these opportunities into the share price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":169037811,"gmtCreate":1623808717933,"gmtModify":1634027804473,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like&nbsp;","listText":"Comment and like&nbsp;","text":"Comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169037811","repostId":"1120789392","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124871191,"gmtCreate":1624760198413,"gmtModify":1633948992522,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and share","listText":"Please like and share","text":"Please like and share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124871191","repostId":"1117734317","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117734317","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624759414,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117734317?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117734317","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong re","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.</li>  <li>In reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.</li>  <li>This has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.</li>  <li>And whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.</li>  <li>Given the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072284e4d267ddbfaf6f17db8b6aa46\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从表面上看，Square似乎是一家成长中的公司，也是一项不错的投资，收入增长强劲，Cash App用户群庞大。</li><li>事实上，该公司一直在努力将其营收转化为净利润。</li><li>这导致Square扩大其产品，以证明夸大的收入估值是合理的，而这可能永远不会带来有意义的盈利增长。</li><li>虽然乍一看，它的现金应用程序故事似乎是一个崭露头角的前景，但它可能只不过是基于必要性的暂时增长。</li><li>鉴于目前的估值和不断增加的比特币阻力，Square可能面临收入和盈利的大幅下调。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Square Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the&nbsp;most popular stocks&nbsp;among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.</p><p><blockquote>Square Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）是最受散户交易者和投资者欢迎的股票之一，在Robinhood的100强排名中排名第57位。这导致SQ的价格比去年上涨了135%，市值超过1000亿美元，交易波动性相当于中型公司。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a&nbsp;banking license&nbsp;via Square Financial Services.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，价格和估值似乎是合理的，该公司通过Cash App、比特币（BTC-USD）、PPP贷款不断增加收入并扩大其产品组合，最近还通过Square Financial Services获得银行牌照。</blockquote></p><p> However, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于对未来收入预测的猜测，这些估值正与公司及其核心业务的基本面脱钩，而未来收入预测严重依赖于比特币收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc746c80eba08b76805234d32a7eff4\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Source: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自SQ Investor Relations（2021年第一季度历史财务信息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，SQ还可能面临与小企业定位相关的其他几个问题；政策和法规；以及一般宏观经济因素，这些因素可能会产生不利因素，影响其估值并给投资者带来不对称的下行风险，我将在下面进行推断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家支付处理和商业工具提供商，促进企业/卖家和个人之间的交易，并为他们提供硬件、在线基础设施和分析。此外，它还通过现金应用程序为个人提供服务，该应用程序似乎呈指数级增长，允许用户发送、接收、持有和投资资金，最近还有比特币。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee1136e6c6e1b5294daf79d06e4a1e8\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信-现金App流入与毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of March 2020, the&nbsp;company has received a Banking License&nbsp;from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年3月，该公司已获得联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）的银行牌照，可以向使用SQ进行支付处理的零售商发放商业贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Given all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于所有这些积极消息，根据未来增长预测，该股在过去3年中上涨了330%以上，并且自2020年以来一直追逐收入预期也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> This was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.</p><p><blockquote>这在新冠疫情期间很常见，因为未知的水域意味着营收增长对于生存至关重要。此外，美联储似乎无休止的印钞，加上零利率，意味着资金流入显示出最高增长潜力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a8d95ef4deef4b9e6e7ec8ca86793\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（2021年SQ与EPS预估和收入预估）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在Q1 2021年，随着印刷放缓，收益率开始上升，联邦对个人的转移支付消失，因此不断增加的收入预期对市场的意义开始减弱，导致SQ价格走势在200美元至280美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a03c8294f2805d4e82fbc3fed739f45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（年初至今SQ价格）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Quantitative</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数量的</b></blockquote></p><p> Year to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，SQ相对于支付处理行业表现良好，为股东带来了约12%的价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32bf1243cd5e4252fc8af88b2ee4bfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector &gt;$50 bln Year to Date)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（SQ与支付处理行业今年迄今&gt;500亿美元）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>当根据远期收益和收入对这些公司进行评估时，也就不足为奇了。SQ 2021年和2022年的盈利增长高于平均水平和中位数，2021年的收入增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b67e41d041b35bf5e8ae3c7adb55c7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，行业比较（支付处理商）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然与同行相比，SQ的远期市盈率似乎被夸大了，但其远期市盈率相对较小，低于行业平均水平和中位数，这或许证明了其现值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> However, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一旦你将比特币收入从等式中剔除，你就会得到对收入增长低得多的预期PS估计，而收入增长代表了SQ的主要业务。</blockquote></p><p> For this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在这个等式中，我从2021年第一季度的业绩中删除了比特币的收入，并根据分析师的平均预期判断，该预期显示2021年第二季度至第四季度的收入几乎没有环比增长，将该数字乘以4倍，得出年终收入估计为61.407亿美元。前几年，我已将比特币从收入中删除。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624b2de0076a4f2d6062c52036b5d176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ收入增长（2018年至2021年比特币与不包括比特币的预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337259448695cf7fc6a796d86dba775\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"245\"><span>Source: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ与行业比较（收入预测不包括比特币）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，这描绘了该公司截然不同的图景，虽然收入增长仍略高于市盈率也很高的公司，但盈利估值突然看起来更有意义，并且很难证明远期市盈率高于平均水平3倍是合理的，比中位数高4.5倍。尤其是当美国运通公司(AXP)、万事达卡公司(MA)、PayPal控股公司(PYPL)和Visa Inc(V)等公司的每股收益平均高出4倍时。其中大多数支付股息，并具有类似的增长预期，但波动风险较小。</blockquote></p><p> Many will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which&nbsp;Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:</p><p><blockquote>许多人会认为“这并不重要，因为BTC现在是他们收入指标的一部分，也就是说，除了交易量之外，才是重要的”。然而，我想举2018年比特币抛售的例子，比特币下跌了70%，交易量也从高点下跌了约75%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01941a1ab02f1b6dc27d73a2705a242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Bitcoinvisuals.com（2018年比特币市场交易量）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看，如果比特币因全球监管力度加大而继续回调，这将给投资者带来巨大的下行风险，因为该公司本质上是根据比特币支持的收入指标进行交易的。很简单，比特币的价格下跌可能意味着收入预期的下调，从而导致SQ价格的高度波动回撤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89cf1b41c0d446571c7a471bb8d8e50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（SQ价格相关性-收入、EPS和EBITDA）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该股与同行相比的历史波动性，这种情况变得越来越有可能，而且它也成为共识空头头寸也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d47874b5957751f0d485a9aa9ec5016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\"><span>Source: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者（SQ与行业比较隐含波动率和已实现波动率以及空头利息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend&nbsp;in which the author suggests that&nbsp;SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in&nbsp;I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于另一位Seeking Alpha撰稿人的分析，我不得不同意作者认为SQ 2025年增长的价值趋势基本上已被定价。SQ对收入预测的依赖被比特币大幅放大，给投资者带来了中短期内不对称的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Macro</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宏观的</b></blockquote></p><p> Whilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们正处于重新开放的过程中，但许多事情仍然不确定，如需求可持续性、就业增长和创造以及通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Whilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.</p><p><blockquote>虽然媒体的情绪总体上是积极的，但在我们得出结论认为我们是清白的之前，有几个宏观经济问题需要解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Environment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业环境</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).</p><p><blockquote>SQ的MRQ显示，近49%的毛利润来自卖家生态系统（小企业）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f50d03e91a1609a120fa139b61e292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度10Q第39页-细分毛利）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with &lt;$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>其中大部分来自支付总额低于500,000美元的卖家（69.5%）。这使得square很大程度上受到小企业周期波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fbdbba973e9d39e9d07b50d6174b03\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Delving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.</p><p><blockquote>深入研究业务形成统计数据，有一个乐观的画面，2021年5月超过500,000个业务应用程序为SQ提供了无尽的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777bf7fbfba7b466a8c89baa9b21a72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Source: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Census.gov（商业应用，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.</p><p><blockquote>同样，当我们深入挖掘并查看排名成熟小企业乐观情绪的统计数据时，情况开始扭曲，开始看起来像是进入2008年的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be8fe67a4c257868eb79101d262e77\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势-乐观，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当我们考察小企业未来的扩张前景时，这也降至低点，与2008年类似。这可能表明SQ毛利率的主要组成部分可能不会以2017年至2020年期间的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a555c19fb385f170bb6deb2b3abcca\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势-展望，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，应该指出的是，小企业给出负面前景的两个主要原因是“经济状况”和“政治气候”，这可能与2020年的选举、COVID、最近的政策变化有关，并且在某种程度上是暂时的。或者，它可能类似于2008年至2016年的缓慢三月，我们只是不知道，除了它是一个较低的读数，因此可能会影响SQ的高收入和盈利增长预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbef66ecf854fe482a86e001dec91e6\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势-展望原因，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Lending</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业贷款</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the&nbsp;PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，SQ显然旨在通过获得银行牌照来巩固其在商业贷款领域的地位。这对该公司来说非常积极，因为他们庞大且不断增长的小型企业用户群、他们自2014年以来的经验以及于2021年5月31日停止的PPP计划。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.</p><p><blockquote>目前，由于COVID的复苏努力，银行贷款已经减少。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327e5b2f822c5f6e8b6298b58c0d4f94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（美国商业银行-商业和工业贷款）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be verified through the credit conditions index in the&nbsp;monthly NFIB report. Although, an&nbsp;American Banker survey&nbsp;is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过NFIB月度报告中的信用状况指数来验证。尽管如此，美国银行家的一项调查报告称，86%的小企业发现很难获得信贷，不得不求助于个人信贷。</blockquote></p><p> This is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of&nbsp;capital restraints&nbsp;placed on Wells Fargo &amp; Company (WFC).</p><p><blockquote>这对SQ来说是积极的，因为这将使他们能够填补市场上小企业的信贷缺口。尽管我认为这将是短暂的，因为有人猜测，当美联储缩减规模时，他们还将宣布取消对富国银行（WFC）的资本限制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530b7de3c5d05e7e8f5de219d3582ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"689\"><span>Source: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：瑞士信贷（Global Money Dispatch–2021年5月25日）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had&nbsp;lifted these restraints&nbsp;to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美联储在2020年初取消了这些限制，以通过PPP计划帮助小企业，而且缩减购债规模有扰乱市场的历史，这种情况发生的可能性相当大。如果发生这种情况，我怀疑WFC将再次成为小企业信贷领域的巨头，并由于其在该领域广泛的网络和历史而成为SQ非常强劲的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin, Legislation &amp; Gensler</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币、立法和詹斯勒</b></blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor&nbsp;banks&nbsp;have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the&nbsp;purchase of Bitcoin using their services.</p><p><blockquote>比特币在2020年下半年和2021年上半年的大部分时间里一直是头条新闻，这是有充分理由的。它在散户交易者和投资者中越来越受欢迎，并表现出非凡的赞赏。此外，一些小型银行对这种媒介很感兴趣，尽管许多银行和金融机构已经明确禁止使用其服务购买比特币。</blockquote></p><p> The primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as&nbsp;money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.</p><p><blockquote>他们反对的主要原因很可能与非法活动有关，如洗钱、恐怖主义、虚假交易量以及我不想参与的类似活动，银行也不想参与。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China&nbsp;and&nbsp;India.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在最近的炒作中，许多国家现在正在介入监管比特币的使用，但其他国家更进一步，正在颁布立法禁止其使用和开采，最明显的是中印两国。</blockquote></p><p> This has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.</p><p><blockquote>自2021年5月ATHs约65,000美元以来，这对比特币的价格产生了负面影响，此后回撤了-46%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with&nbsp;Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.</p><p><blockquote>这对比特币的未来也是极其不利的，因为比特币的大部分挖矿都是在中国完成的（年初至今约70%），挖矿的算力与价格相关。因此，如果这些因素因中国采矿活动减少而消退，价格肯定会随之上涨，从而影响SQ的比特币持有量和未来交易量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ef78953396700241870a3f3ae8d8be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>Source: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：剑桥大学（剑桥比特币电力消费指数年初至今）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst the SEC has come out and said that&nbsp;Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has&nbsp;warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to&nbsp;2000 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>虽然SEC已经站出来表示，比特币监管不在他们2021年的议程上，但Gary Gensler警告投资者要谨慎。Gensler在保护投资者的监管方面也有着悠久的历史，尽管没有将比特币列入2021年的议程，但我建议读者研究他在2000年和2008年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> Looking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.</p><p><blockquote>进一步看，总的来说，这对比特币和SQ来说并不是一个好兆头。很可能会有进一步的监管而不是采用，从而对其价格产生负面影响，导致2018年产量和采矿活动的下降重演。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Economy - The Worry for Retail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总体经济——零售业的担忧</b></blockquote></p><p> Separately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout&nbsp;2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.</p><p><blockquote>另外，我们也可能会看到零售业未来的负面形势。零售业的复苏在很大程度上不是由“被压抑的需求”推动的，而是主要通过2020年和2021年初发放的补贴。当检查下图时，我们可以看到，一旦你减去转移收入（政府刺激支票和就业福利——红线），收入就不再是以前的样子了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a5a8cfaa11dd3c5ab5544778a40b90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行（可支配收入vs实际收入减去转账vs个人储蓄vs零售贸易销售）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们可以看到，零售额（紫色）的飙升主要是由刺激支票推动的，刺激支票增加了可支配收入（蓝色）和消费者储蓄（绿色），尽管现在刺激已经结束，人们不得不开始挖掘他们的储蓄，3月至4月期间环比下降了54%。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is&nbsp;considered to be the most revealing&nbsp;amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>在检查U6失业率时，消费者支出情况变得更糟，U6失业率被认为是经济学家中最能揭示问题的，因为它包括失业、未充分就业和灰心丧气的求职者。一般来说，这对未来消费者可自由支配支出模式来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09f260d254df1a847962a6b6896764c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Macrotrends.net（U6失业率vs U5 vs官方）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.</p><p><blockquote>最后，食品和能源成本的上涨（我预计食品成本将持续上涨）应该会阻碍消费者未来的可自由支配支出。我以前写过关于马赛克公司（MOS）和安德森公司（ANDE）的文章，概述了我对这一趋势的理由。</blockquote></p><p> In relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，我们可以根据2019年底的数据看到他们对消费者可自由支配支出的历史敞口。当考虑到以下数据时：零售；专业服务、美容及个护、家居及维修、休闲娱乐及休闲使用，总曝光量约为59%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddddbe8ed21ed16aab29a7b5ebbc846\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista（Raynor de Best–卖家行业GPV，2019年12月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.</p><p><blockquote>虽然由于比特币的权重，这可能不会对其收入数据产生重大影响，但我确实预计这将削弱未来的毛利润数据，并随着刺激措施进一步消退对利润率产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> When examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).</p><p><blockquote>在检查SQ的财务状况时，我们可以很容易地看到，比特币是推动其收入增长的主要因素（MRQ占总收入的69%），其估值也由此得出（参见上面的介绍部分-SQ价格与收入部分；和定量部分-SQ价格相关性）。</blockquote></p><p> From their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年第一季度股东信第12页中，他们表示，截至2021年3月31日，他们所持股份的公允价值为4.72亿美元。这一天的收盘价为58,918.83美元，约合8,011个比特币。他们还表示，在此期间和第四季度，他们最初向比特币投资了2亿美元，因此他们的平均价格约为每个比特币25,000美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.</p><p><blockquote>目前，比特币的价格约为34,600美元，它似乎也很难找到吸引力，尤其是当你研究其他一些趋势时。例如，看看谷歌趋势上“购买比特币”的搜索趋势，这显然正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b3b70625f48232fa97f1aa14f5548e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词-全球5年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当你将这些数据与刺激支付联系起来时，很明显这两者在2020年下半年存在关系，最近的大部分猜测可能是由政府补贴驱动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54329dbe61b7b1f9fc1347f632aff709\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>Source: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：USA.Gov（新冠刺激支票日期）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>搜索量的激增大约发生在后两次政府刺激支票的时间，有几天到几周的滞后。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c7a198a905e4a89f11faa1b4db4003b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词-美国12个月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这也与比特币在2020年12月和2021年1月的价格上涨以及2021年3月和4月的失败反弹相吻合。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0428576ae2c8312e747c3ae5fccab637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（比特币价格1年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在这个例子中，如果我们持续抛售-70%，这与2018年发生的情况类似。我们将回到2020年11月比特币价格约为20,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> This is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在数量减少、进一步立法和哈希率下降的基础上，这仍然是可行的。从理论上讲，SQ可能会产生4000万美元的减值费用，这将极大地影响营业收入、净利润和股东收益以及未来预期。尽管这纯粹是理论上的，没有考虑本季度的交易，例如在ATH或附近的购买或销售。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于未来缺乏刺激付款以及消费者可自由支配支出收紧，随着进入该领域的资金减少和销量下降，比特币产生的收入也可能下降。对SQ的收入估计以及随后的价格和估值产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash App</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金应用程序</b></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，Cash App正在呈指数级增长，成为用户交易的可行平台，每月交易活跃客户超过3600万，同比增长50%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b457a1d1f65d9d40fac153a9926aa167\" tg-width=\"262\" tg-height=\"230\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cash App的这种增长未来可能是不可持续的，SQ在其季度备案说明中详细阐述了这一点：</blockquote></p><p>   Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from&nbsp;  <b>government relief programs</b>&nbsp;most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)</i>  Part of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>Cash App收入受益于Cash App活跃客户数量的增长以及<b>政府救济计划</b>最近于2020年12月下旬和2021年3月通过成为法律，以及2020年通过的早期刺激计划的累积收益。这些计划提供了额外的刺激救济和失业福利，导致消费者支出和流入我们的Cash App生态系统的资金增加。Cash App的收入增长在未来几个季度可能无法维持在相同水平，并且可能会受到进一步刺激救济和福利计划的颁布以及比特币的需求和市场价格等因素的影响。<i>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度10Q文件–第49页）</i>Cash App的部分问题是理论上的持续使用和未来的采用。去年的大部分增长主要是由通过Cash App生态系统进行的刺激支付推动的，因此在这种情况下是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> The two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:</p><p><blockquote>该应用程序的搜索量出现了两次急剧上升：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>April 12-18 2020</li>  <li>January 24-30 2021</li> </ul> These coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2020年4月12日至18日</li><li>2021年1月24日至30日</li></ul>这些与刺激付款相吻合，因为他们最初发送这些款项，并逐渐将其存入人们的账户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9485d2feac40030b5190195a471781e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（现金应用搜索词-美国5年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>因此，随着政府刺激付款结束，比特币再次失去相关性，越来越多的人重返工作岗位，日间交易减少，这可能会对未来的用户增长指标产生负面影响，影响SQ的收入估计、毛利润数据及其收益。</blockquote></p><p> Further, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有许多其他更可行的平台，另一位Seeking Alpha撰稿人The Value Trend在这里详细介绍了这些平台。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要记住他们如何定义这些用户，“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”如下：</blockquote></p><p>   ... has at least  <b>one financial transaction</b>using any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)</i>  So, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...</p><p><blockquote>...至少有<b>一笔金融交易</b>在指定期间内使用Cash App内的任何产品或服务。<i>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信-第4页）</i>因此，如果客户每月一次从雇主那里收到工资或失业救济金，并每月一次将所有工资转入他们的银行账户，那么他们就是“交易活跃现金应用客户”...</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.</p><p><blockquote>也许一个“活跃”客户的更好的量词是大于5笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> Examining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.</p><p><blockquote>检查SQ的技术面，很明显该股目前在200美元至280美元之间波动，在250美元处有几次突破尝试，在300美元附近有两次失败的尝试，显示出几个迹象表明势头正在消失。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c277d5239e06c67b7ff6fd7fff319bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"642\"><span>Source: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自FINVIZ（SQ图表）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在检查暗池订单流时，由于暗池处于低点，当前的反弹有可能继续，这可能会持续到8月份的收益中。尽管我不会抱太大希望，除非出现一些严重的好消息，比特币反弹回ATHs。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323bfcd903c74dce542b53b0b56e093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Squeezemetrics.com（SQ暗池与隐含Vol 2年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>从13F备案中也可以看到，不少基金降低了敞口并平仓，新增仓位较少。看跌期权与看涨期权的比率也变得相当高，尤其是在市值为1000亿美元的股票上，这表明我们并不是唯一有同样想法的人。</blockquote></p><p> Caution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.</p><p><blockquote>但需要谨慎，因为SQ与比特币的问题显然正在成为共识交易，当这些看跌期权被取消时，伽马可能会转为正值，并可能导致该股大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b221f08c025ba225e32114f0e76dd272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"><span>Source: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Whalewisdom.com（SQ基金定位）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been&nbsp;significant liquidity issues&nbsp;the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.</p><p><blockquote>此外，就ARK ETF而言，过去6个月出现重大流动性问题也就不足为奇了，我同意另一位Seeking Alpha撰稿人的论点，即我们将看到这些ETF中持有的股票价格回归均值。值得注意的是，Cathie已经显著减少了她对SQ的接触，她可能正在选择她的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce0e1f1cd9e7e47fe27105be3f6ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Source: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Cathiesark.com（持有SQ股票-所有ETF）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于上述信息，这是一家很难做空的公司。它要么会带来巨大的回报，要么会因为它的波动性而撕碎你的脸。此外，许多基金希望对财务报表上有比特币的公司进行少量投资。因此，如果您要自担风险将其作为空头进行交易，建议谨慎行事，并且您应该始终选择战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> On the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.</p><p><blockquote>根据SQ ATR的波动性，SQ有可能在今年年底前跌至约100美元的低点，40%的情况下走势有利。如果你把比特币完全从等式中剔除，这与我的2021年底价格一致。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1e2586568ef7e0aea0c54e3503acc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者（SQ ATR计算器）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这样做是不明智的，因为这是他们目前收入的一部分，无论2021年初比特币的销量有多高，年底可能有多低。</blockquote></p><p> I do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.</p><p><blockquote>我确实预计该股将再次下跌并重新测试200美元，可能跌破160美元。尽管很难确定SQ的估值，主要是因为估值来自比特币收入，以及基金和市场在未来采用该资产时的感知价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).</p><p><blockquote>如果市场再次开始认为比特币无关紧要，我预计SQ将慢慢抛售至150美元至160美元之间（下跌-37%），反弹超过300美元（上涨25%）的可能性很低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> With respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，应注意以下风险。</blockquote></p><p> The company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?</p><p><blockquote>不管你喜不喜欢SQ，公司都在成长。主要问题是：市场会在任何现实基础上对比特币进行估值吗？不管有没有比特币，它增长了多少？无论有没有比特币，未来的潜在增长是多少？市场相信吗，或者就此而言在乎吗？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币失去相关性，从谷歌趋势来看，这种可能性更大，那么假设SQ将因此在2021年下半年遭受损失并对收入预期造成重大打击并不奇怪。然而，如果比特币的采用率增加并且负面消息消退，由于这是一家成长型公司，它可能会继续上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Further, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.</p><p><blockquote>此外，消费者支出模式正在产生混合数据，上面我提出了一个熊市案例。如果人们的行为发生变化，例如申请将增加经济支出的工作，并有望产生小企业增长，增加小企业的乐观情绪和扩张，这对于SQ作为支付处理领域的周期性企业非常有利。</blockquote></p><p> Again, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>同样，谨慎是必要的，尽管我确实认为公司未来的增长已被定价，SQ持有者面临的下行风险高于上行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家高增长公司，从长远来看具有一些潜在的积极点；然而，其估值非常值得怀疑，因为其高收入预期主要来自比特币交易，而不是盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> From a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>从定量角度来看，它在同行中看起来不错，但经过进一步检查，它似乎被严重高估，因为未来的增长（至少2021年）可能来自比特币。此外，如果没有政府的持续刺激，其Cash App采用统计数据可能不会继续看到相同的运行率。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.</p><p><blockquote>此外，它还面临着一些潜在的宏观经济障碍，包括小企业风险、贷款竞争对手、消费者交易竞争对手、比特币立法和零售需求疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSquare: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.</li>  <li>In reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.</li>  <li>This has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.</li>  <li>And whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.</li>  <li>Given the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072284e4d267ddbfaf6f17db8b6aa46\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从表面上看，Square似乎是一家成长中的公司，也是一项不错的投资，收入增长强劲，Cash App用户群庞大。</li><li>事实上，该公司一直在努力将其营收转化为净利润。</li><li>这导致Square扩大其产品，以证明夸大的收入估值是合理的，而这可能永远不会带来有意义的盈利增长。</li><li>虽然乍一看，它的现金应用程序故事似乎是一个崭露头角的前景，但它可能只不过是基于必要性的暂时增长。</li><li>鉴于目前的估值和不断增加的比特币阻力，Square可能面临收入和盈利的大幅下调。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Square Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the&nbsp;most popular stocks&nbsp;among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.</p><p><blockquote>Square Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）是最受散户交易者和投资者欢迎的股票之一，在Robinhood的100强排名中排名第57位。这导致SQ的价格比去年上涨了135%，市值超过1000亿美元，交易波动性相当于中型公司。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a&nbsp;banking license&nbsp;via Square Financial Services.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，价格和估值似乎是合理的，该公司通过Cash App、比特币（BTC-USD）、PPP贷款不断增加收入并扩大其产品组合，最近还通过Square Financial Services获得银行牌照。</blockquote></p><p> However, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于对未来收入预测的猜测，这些估值正与公司及其核心业务的基本面脱钩，而未来收入预测严重依赖于比特币收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc746c80eba08b76805234d32a7eff4\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Source: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自SQ Investor Relations（2021年第一季度历史财务信息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，SQ还可能面临与小企业定位相关的其他几个问题；政策和法规；以及一般宏观经济因素，这些因素可能会产生不利因素，影响其估值并给投资者带来不对称的下行风险，我将在下面进行推断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家支付处理和商业工具提供商，促进企业/卖家和个人之间的交易，并为他们提供硬件、在线基础设施和分析。此外，它还通过现金应用程序为个人提供服务，该应用程序似乎呈指数级增长，允许用户发送、接收、持有和投资资金，最近还有比特币。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee1136e6c6e1b5294daf79d06e4a1e8\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信-现金App流入与毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of March 2020, the&nbsp;company has received a Banking License&nbsp;from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年3月，该公司已获得联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）的银行牌照，可以向使用SQ进行支付处理的零售商发放商业贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Given all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于所有这些积极消息，根据未来增长预测，该股在过去3年中上涨了330%以上，并且自2020年以来一直追逐收入预期也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> This was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.</p><p><blockquote>这在新冠疫情期间很常见，因为未知的水域意味着营收增长对于生存至关重要。此外，美联储似乎无休止的印钞，加上零利率，意味着资金流入显示出最高增长潜力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a8d95ef4deef4b9e6e7ec8ca86793\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（2021年SQ与EPS预估和收入预估）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在Q1 2021年，随着印刷放缓，收益率开始上升，联邦对个人的转移支付消失，因此不断增加的收入预期对市场的意义开始减弱，导致SQ价格走势在200美元至280美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a03c8294f2805d4e82fbc3fed739f45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（年初至今SQ价格）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Quantitative</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数量的</b></blockquote></p><p> Year to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，SQ相对于支付处理行业表现良好，为股东带来了约12%的价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32bf1243cd5e4252fc8af88b2ee4bfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector &gt;$50 bln Year to Date)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（SQ与支付处理行业今年迄今&gt;500亿美元）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>当根据远期收益和收入对这些公司进行评估时，也就不足为奇了。SQ 2021年和2022年的盈利增长高于平均水平和中位数，2021年的收入增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b67e41d041b35bf5e8ae3c7adb55c7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，行业比较（支付处理商）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然与同行相比，SQ的远期市盈率似乎被夸大了，但其远期市盈率相对较小，低于行业平均水平和中位数，这或许证明了其现值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> However, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一旦你将比特币收入从等式中剔除，你就会得到对收入增长低得多的预期PS估计，而收入增长代表了SQ的主要业务。</blockquote></p><p> For this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在这个等式中，我从2021年第一季度的业绩中删除了比特币的收入，并根据分析师的平均预期判断，该预期显示2021年第二季度至第四季度的收入几乎没有环比增长，将该数字乘以4倍，得出年终收入估计为61.407亿美元。前几年，我已将比特币从收入中删除。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624b2de0076a4f2d6062c52036b5d176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ收入增长（2018年至2021年比特币与不包括比特币的预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337259448695cf7fc6a796d86dba775\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"245\"><span>Source: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ与行业比较（收入预测不包括比特币）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，这描绘了该公司截然不同的图景，虽然收入增长仍略高于市盈率也很高的公司，但盈利估值突然看起来更有意义，并且很难证明远期市盈率高于平均水平3倍是合理的，比中位数高4.5倍。尤其是当美国运通公司(AXP)、万事达卡公司(MA)、PayPal控股公司(PYPL)和Visa Inc(V)等公司的每股收益平均高出4倍时。其中大多数支付股息，并具有类似的增长预期，但波动风险较小。</blockquote></p><p> Many will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which&nbsp;Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:</p><p><blockquote>许多人会认为“这并不重要，因为BTC现在是他们收入指标的一部分，也就是说，除了交易量之外，才是重要的”。然而，我想举2018年比特币抛售的例子，比特币下跌了70%，交易量也从高点下跌了约75%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01941a1ab02f1b6dc27d73a2705a242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Bitcoinvisuals.com（2018年比特币市场交易量）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看，如果比特币因全球监管力度加大而继续回调，这将给投资者带来巨大的下行风险，因为该公司本质上是根据比特币支持的收入指标进行交易的。很简单，比特币的价格下跌可能意味着收入预期的下调，从而导致SQ价格的高度波动回撤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89cf1b41c0d446571c7a471bb8d8e50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（SQ价格相关性-收入、EPS和EBITDA）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该股与同行相比的历史波动性，这种情况变得越来越有可能，而且它也成为共识空头头寸也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d47874b5957751f0d485a9aa9ec5016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\"><span>Source: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者（SQ与行业比较隐含波动率和已实现波动率以及空头利息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend&nbsp;in which the author suggests that&nbsp;SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in&nbsp;I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于另一位Seeking Alpha撰稿人的分析，我不得不同意作者认为SQ 2025年增长的价值趋势基本上已被定价。SQ对收入预测的依赖被比特币大幅放大，给投资者带来了中短期内不对称的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Macro</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宏观的</b></blockquote></p><p> Whilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们正处于重新开放的过程中，但许多事情仍然不确定，如需求可持续性、就业增长和创造以及通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Whilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.</p><p><blockquote>虽然媒体的情绪总体上是积极的，但在我们得出结论认为我们是清白的之前，有几个宏观经济问题需要解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Environment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业环境</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).</p><p><blockquote>SQ的MRQ显示，近49%的毛利润来自卖家生态系统（小企业）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f50d03e91a1609a120fa139b61e292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度10Q第39页-细分毛利）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with &lt;$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>其中大部分来自支付总额低于500,000美元的卖家（69.5%）。这使得square很大程度上受到小企业周期波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fbdbba973e9d39e9d07b50d6174b03\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Delving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.</p><p><blockquote>深入研究业务形成统计数据，有一个乐观的画面，2021年5月超过500,000个业务应用程序为SQ提供了无尽的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777bf7fbfba7b466a8c89baa9b21a72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Source: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Census.gov（商业应用，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.</p><p><blockquote>同样，当我们深入挖掘并查看排名成熟小企业乐观情绪的统计数据时，情况开始扭曲，开始看起来像是进入2008年的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be8fe67a4c257868eb79101d262e77\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势-乐观，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当我们考察小企业未来的扩张前景时，这也降至低点，与2008年类似。这可能表明SQ毛利率的主要组成部分可能不会以2017年至2020年期间的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a555c19fb385f170bb6deb2b3abcca\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势-展望，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，应该指出的是，小企业给出负面前景的两个主要原因是“经济状况”和“政治气候”，这可能与2020年的选举、COVID、最近的政策变化有关，并且在某种程度上是暂时的。或者，它可能类似于2008年至2016年的缓慢三月，我们只是不知道，除了它是一个较低的读数，因此可能会影响SQ的高收入和盈利增长预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbef66ecf854fe482a86e001dec91e6\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势-展望原因，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Lending</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业贷款</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the&nbsp;PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，SQ显然旨在通过获得银行牌照来巩固其在商业贷款领域的地位。这对该公司来说非常积极，因为他们庞大且不断增长的小型企业用户群、他们自2014年以来的经验以及于2021年5月31日停止的PPP计划。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.</p><p><blockquote>目前，由于COVID的复苏努力，银行贷款已经减少。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327e5b2f822c5f6e8b6298b58c0d4f94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（美国商业银行-商业和工业贷款）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be verified through the credit conditions index in the&nbsp;monthly NFIB report. Although, an&nbsp;American Banker survey&nbsp;is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过NFIB月度报告中的信用状况指数来验证。尽管如此，美国银行家的一项调查报告称，86%的小企业发现很难获得信贷，不得不求助于个人信贷。</blockquote></p><p> This is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of&nbsp;capital restraints&nbsp;placed on Wells Fargo &amp; Company (WFC).</p><p><blockquote>这对SQ来说是积极的，因为这将使他们能够填补市场上小企业的信贷缺口。尽管我认为这将是短暂的，因为有人猜测，当美联储缩减规模时，他们还将宣布取消对富国银行（WFC）的资本限制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530b7de3c5d05e7e8f5de219d3582ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"689\"><span>Source: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：瑞士信贷（Global Money Dispatch–2021年5月25日）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had&nbsp;lifted these restraints&nbsp;to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美联储在2020年初取消了这些限制，以通过PPP计划帮助小企业，而且缩减购债规模有扰乱市场的历史，这种情况发生的可能性相当大。如果发生这种情况，我怀疑WFC将再次成为小企业信贷领域的巨头，并由于其在该领域广泛的网络和历史而成为SQ非常强劲的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin, Legislation &amp; Gensler</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币、立法和詹斯勒</b></blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor&nbsp;banks&nbsp;have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the&nbsp;purchase of Bitcoin using their services.</p><p><blockquote>比特币在2020年下半年和2021年上半年的大部分时间里一直是头条新闻，这是有充分理由的。它在散户交易者和投资者中越来越受欢迎，并表现出非凡的赞赏。此外，一些小型银行对这种媒介很感兴趣，尽管许多银行和金融机构已经明确禁止使用其服务购买比特币。</blockquote></p><p> The primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as&nbsp;money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.</p><p><blockquote>他们反对的主要原因很可能与非法活动有关，如洗钱、恐怖主义、虚假交易量以及我不想参与的类似活动，银行也不想参与。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China&nbsp;and&nbsp;India.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在最近的炒作中，许多国家现在正在介入监管比特币的使用，但其他国家更进一步，正在颁布立法禁止其使用和开采，最明显的是中印两国。</blockquote></p><p> This has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.</p><p><blockquote>自2021年5月ATHs约65,000美元以来，这对比特币的价格产生了负面影响，此后回撤了-46%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with&nbsp;Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.</p><p><blockquote>这对比特币的未来也是极其不利的，因为比特币的大部分挖矿都是在中国完成的（年初至今约70%），挖矿的算力与价格相关。因此，如果这些因素因中国采矿活动减少而消退，价格肯定会随之上涨，从而影响SQ的比特币持有量和未来交易量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ef78953396700241870a3f3ae8d8be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>Source: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：剑桥大学（剑桥比特币电力消费指数年初至今）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst the SEC has come out and said that&nbsp;Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has&nbsp;warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to&nbsp;2000 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>虽然SEC已经站出来表示，比特币监管不在他们2021年的议程上，但Gary Gensler警告投资者要谨慎。Gensler在保护投资者的监管方面也有着悠久的历史，尽管没有将比特币列入2021年的议程，但我建议读者研究他在2000年和2008年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> Looking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.</p><p><blockquote>进一步看，总的来说，这对比特币和SQ来说并不是一个好兆头。很可能会有进一步的监管而不是采用，从而对其价格产生负面影响，导致2018年产量和采矿活动的下降重演。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Economy - The Worry for Retail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总体经济——零售业的担忧</b></blockquote></p><p> Separately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout&nbsp;2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.</p><p><blockquote>另外，我们也可能会看到零售业未来的负面形势。零售业的复苏在很大程度上不是由“被压抑的需求”推动的，而是主要通过2020年和2021年初发放的补贴。当检查下图时，我们可以看到，一旦你减去转移收入（政府刺激支票和就业福利——红线），收入就不再是以前的样子了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a5a8cfaa11dd3c5ab5544778a40b90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行（可支配收入vs实际收入减去转账vs个人储蓄vs零售贸易销售）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们可以看到，零售额（紫色）的飙升主要是由刺激支票推动的，刺激支票增加了可支配收入（蓝色）和消费者储蓄（绿色），尽管现在刺激已经结束，人们不得不开始挖掘他们的储蓄，3月至4月期间环比下降了54%。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is&nbsp;considered to be the most revealing&nbsp;amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>在检查U6失业率时，消费者支出情况变得更糟，U6失业率被认为是经济学家中最能揭示问题的，因为它包括失业、未充分就业和灰心丧气的求职者。一般来说，这对未来消费者可自由支配支出模式来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09f260d254df1a847962a6b6896764c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Macrotrends.net（U6失业率vs U5 vs官方）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.</p><p><blockquote>最后，食品和能源成本的上涨（我预计食品成本将持续上涨）应该会阻碍消费者未来的可自由支配支出。我以前写过关于马赛克公司（MOS）和安德森公司（ANDE）的文章，概述了我对这一趋势的理由。</blockquote></p><p> In relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，我们可以根据2019年底的数据看到他们对消费者可自由支配支出的历史敞口。当考虑到以下数据时：零售；专业服务、美容及个护、家居及维修、休闲娱乐及休闲使用，总曝光量约为59%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddddbe8ed21ed16aab29a7b5ebbc846\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista（Raynor de Best–卖家行业GPV，2019年12月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.</p><p><blockquote>虽然由于比特币的权重，这可能不会对其收入数据产生重大影响，但我确实预计这将削弱未来的毛利润数据，并随着刺激措施进一步消退对利润率产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> When examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).</p><p><blockquote>在检查SQ的财务状况时，我们可以很容易地看到，比特币是推动其收入增长的主要因素（MRQ占总收入的69%），其估值也由此得出（参见上面的介绍部分-SQ价格与收入部分；和定量部分-SQ价格相关性）。</blockquote></p><p> From their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年第一季度股东信第12页中，他们表示，截至2021年3月31日，他们所持股份的公允价值为4.72亿美元。这一天的收盘价为58,918.83美元，约合8,011个比特币。他们还表示，在此期间和第四季度，他们最初向比特币投资了2亿美元，因此他们的平均价格约为每个比特币25,000美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.</p><p><blockquote>目前，比特币的价格约为34,600美元，它似乎也很难找到吸引力，尤其是当你研究其他一些趋势时。例如，看看谷歌趋势上“购买比特币”的搜索趋势，这显然正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b3b70625f48232fa97f1aa14f5548e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词-全球5年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当你将这些数据与刺激支付联系起来时，很明显这两者在2020年下半年存在关系，最近的大部分猜测可能是由政府补贴驱动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54329dbe61b7b1f9fc1347f632aff709\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>Source: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：USA.Gov（新冠刺激支票日期）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>搜索量的激增大约发生在后两次政府刺激支票的时间，有几天到几周的滞后。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c7a198a905e4a89f11faa1b4db4003b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词-美国12个月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这也与比特币在2020年12月和2021年1月的价格上涨以及2021年3月和4月的失败反弹相吻合。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0428576ae2c8312e747c3ae5fccab637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（比特币价格1年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在这个例子中，如果我们持续抛售-70%，这与2018年发生的情况类似。我们将回到2020年11月比特币价格约为20,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> This is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在数量减少、进一步立法和哈希率下降的基础上，这仍然是可行的。从理论上讲，SQ可能会产生4000万美元的减值费用，这将极大地影响营业收入、净利润和股东收益以及未来预期。尽管这纯粹是理论上的，没有考虑本季度的交易，例如在ATH或附近的购买或销售。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于未来缺乏刺激付款以及消费者可自由支配支出收紧，随着进入该领域的资金减少和销量下降，比特币产生的收入也可能下降。对SQ的收入估计以及随后的价格和估值产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash App</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金应用程序</b></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，Cash App正在呈指数级增长，成为用户交易的可行平台，每月交易活跃客户超过3600万，同比增长50%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b457a1d1f65d9d40fac153a9926aa167\" tg-width=\"262\" tg-height=\"230\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cash App的这种增长未来可能是不可持续的，SQ在其季度备案说明中详细阐述了这一点：</blockquote></p><p>   Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from&nbsp;  <b>government relief programs</b>&nbsp;most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)</i>  Part of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>Cash App收入受益于Cash App活跃客户数量的增长以及<b>政府救济计划</b>最近于2020年12月下旬和2021年3月通过成为法律，以及2020年通过的早期刺激计划的累积收益。这些计划提供了额外的刺激救济和失业福利，导致消费者支出和流入我们的Cash App生态系统的资金增加。Cash App的收入增长在未来几个季度可能无法维持在相同水平，并且可能会受到进一步刺激救济和福利计划的颁布以及比特币的需求和市场价格等因素的影响。<i>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度10Q文件–第49页）</i>Cash App的部分问题是理论上的持续使用和未来的采用。去年的大部分增长主要是由通过Cash App生态系统进行的刺激支付推动的，因此在这种情况下是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> The two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:</p><p><blockquote>该应用程序的搜索量出现了两次急剧上升：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>April 12-18 2020</li>  <li>January 24-30 2021</li> </ul> These coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2020年4月12日至18日</li><li>2021年1月24日至30日</li></ul>这些与刺激付款相吻合，因为他们最初发送这些款项，并逐渐将其存入人们的账户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9485d2feac40030b5190195a471781e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（现金应用搜索词-美国5年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>因此，随着政府刺激付款结束，比特币再次失去相关性，越来越多的人重返工作岗位，日间交易减少，这可能会对未来的用户增长指标产生负面影响，影响SQ的收入估计、毛利润数据及其收益。</blockquote></p><p> Further, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有许多其他更可行的平台，另一位Seeking Alpha撰稿人The Value Trend在这里详细介绍了这些平台。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要记住他们如何定义这些用户，“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”如下：</blockquote></p><p>   ... has at least  <b>one financial transaction</b>using any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)</i>  So, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...</p><p><blockquote>...至少有<b>一笔金融交易</b>在指定期间内使用Cash App内的任何产品或服务。<i>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信-第4页）</i>因此，如果客户每月一次从雇主那里收到工资或失业救济金，并每月一次将所有工资转入他们的银行账户，那么他们就是“交易活跃现金应用客户”...</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.</p><p><blockquote>也许一个“活跃”客户的更好的量词是大于5笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> Examining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.</p><p><blockquote>检查SQ的技术面，很明显该股目前在200美元至280美元之间波动，在250美元处有几次突破尝试，在300美元附近有两次失败的尝试，显示出几个迹象表明势头正在消失。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c277d5239e06c67b7ff6fd7fff319bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"642\"><span>Source: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自FINVIZ（SQ图表）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在检查暗池订单流时，由于暗池处于低点，当前的反弹有可能继续，这可能会持续到8月份的收益中。尽管我不会抱太大希望，除非出现一些严重的好消息，比特币反弹回ATHs。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323bfcd903c74dce542b53b0b56e093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Squeezemetrics.com（SQ暗池与隐含Vol 2年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>从13F备案中也可以看到，不少基金降低了敞口并平仓，新增仓位较少。看跌期权与看涨期权的比率也变得相当高，尤其是在市值为1000亿美元的股票上，这表明我们并不是唯一有同样想法的人。</blockquote></p><p> Caution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.</p><p><blockquote>但需要谨慎，因为SQ与比特币的问题显然正在成为共识交易，当这些看跌期权被取消时，伽马可能会转为正值，并可能导致该股大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b221f08c025ba225e32114f0e76dd272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"><span>Source: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Whalewisdom.com（SQ基金定位）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been&nbsp;significant liquidity issues&nbsp;the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.</p><p><blockquote>此外，就ARK ETF而言，过去6个月出现重大流动性问题也就不足为奇了，我同意另一位Seeking Alpha撰稿人的论点，即我们将看到这些ETF中持有的股票价格回归均值。值得注意的是，Cathie已经显著减少了她对SQ的接触，她可能正在选择她的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce0e1f1cd9e7e47fe27105be3f6ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Source: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Cathiesark.com（持有SQ股票-所有ETF）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于上述信息，这是一家很难做空的公司。它要么会带来巨大的回报，要么会因为它的波动性而撕碎你的脸。此外，许多基金希望对财务报表上有比特币的公司进行少量投资。因此，如果您要自担风险将其作为空头进行交易，建议谨慎行事，并且您应该始终选择战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> On the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.</p><p><blockquote>根据SQ ATR的波动性，SQ有可能在今年年底前跌至约100美元的低点，40%的情况下走势有利。如果你把比特币完全从等式中剔除，这与我的2021年底价格一致。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1e2586568ef7e0aea0c54e3503acc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者（SQ ATR计算器）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这样做是不明智的，因为这是他们目前收入的一部分，无论2021年初比特币的销量有多高，年底可能有多低。</blockquote></p><p> I do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.</p><p><blockquote>我确实预计该股将再次下跌并重新测试200美元，可能跌破160美元。尽管很难确定SQ的估值，主要是因为估值来自比特币收入，以及基金和市场在未来采用该资产时的感知价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).</p><p><blockquote>如果市场再次开始认为比特币无关紧要，我预计SQ将慢慢抛售至150美元至160美元之间（下跌-37%），反弹超过300美元（上涨25%）的可能性很低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> With respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，应注意以下风险。</blockquote></p><p> The company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?</p><p><blockquote>不管你喜不喜欢SQ，公司都在成长。主要问题是：市场会在任何现实基础上对比特币进行估值吗？不管有没有比特币，它增长了多少？无论有没有比特币，未来的潜在增长是多少？市场相信吗，或者就此而言在乎吗？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币失去相关性，从谷歌趋势来看，这种可能性更大，那么假设SQ将因此在2021年下半年遭受损失并对收入预期造成重大打击并不奇怪。然而，如果比特币的采用率增加并且负面消息消退，由于这是一家成长型公司，它可能会继续上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Further, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.</p><p><blockquote>此外，消费者支出模式正在产生混合数据，上面我提出了一个熊市案例。如果人们的行为发生变化，例如申请将增加经济支出的工作，并有望产生小企业增长，增加小企业的乐观情绪和扩张，这对于SQ作为支付处理领域的周期性企业非常有利。</blockquote></p><p> Again, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>同样，谨慎是必要的，尽管我确实认为公司未来的增长已被定价，SQ持有者面临的下行风险高于上行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家高增长公司，从长远来看具有一些潜在的积极点；然而，其估值非常值得怀疑，因为其高收入预期主要来自比特币交易，而不是盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> From a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>从定量角度来看，它在同行中看起来不错，但经过进一步检查，它似乎被严重高估，因为未来的增长（至少2021年）可能来自比特币。此外，如果没有政府的持续刺激，其Cash App采用统计数据可能不会继续看到相同的运行率。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.</p><p><blockquote>此外，它还面临着一些潜在的宏观经济障碍，包括小企业风险、贷款竞争对手、消费者交易竞争对手、比特币立法和零售需求疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117734317","content_text":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.\nIn reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.\nThis has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.\nAnd whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.\nGiven the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.\n\nAndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nSquare Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the most popular stocks among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.\nOn the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a banking license via Square Financial Services.\nHowever, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.\nSource: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)\nIn addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.\nOverview\nSQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)\nAs of March 2020, the company has received a Banking License from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.\nGiven all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.\nThis was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)\nHowever, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)\nQuantitative\nYear to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector >$50 bln Year to Date)\nIt is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.\nSource: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)\nWhilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.\nHowever, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.\nFor this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.\nSource: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)\nSource: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)\nAs we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.\nMany will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:\nSource: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)\nOn a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)\nThis becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.\nSource: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)\nGiven the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend in which the author suggests that SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.\nMacro\nWhilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.\nWhilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.\nSmall Business Environment\nSQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)\nThe majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with <$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)\nDelving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.\nSource: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)\nAgain, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)\nFurther, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)\nAdditionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)\nSmall Business Lending\nLooking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.\nCurrently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.\nSource: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)\nThis can be verified through the credit conditions index in the monthly NFIB report. Although, an American Banker survey is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.\nThis is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of capital restraints placed on Wells Fargo & Company (WFC).\nSource: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)\nThere is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had lifted these restraints to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.\nBitcoin, Legislation & Gensler\nBitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor banks have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the purchase of Bitcoin using their services.\nThe primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.\nConsequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China and India.\nThis has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.\nIt is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.\nSource: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)\nWhilst the SEC has come out and said that Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to 2000 and 2008.\nLooking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.\nGeneral Economy - The Worry for Retail\nSeparately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout 2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.\nSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)\nAdditionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.\nThe consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is considered to be the most revealing amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.\nSource: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)\nFinally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.\nIn relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.\nSource: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)\nWhilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.\nFinancials\nBitcoin\nWhen examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).\nFrom their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.\nCurrently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)\nAdditionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.\nSource: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)\nThe spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)\nThis also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.\nSource: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)\nThus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.\nThis is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.\nAdditionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.\nCash App\nOn the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)\nHowever, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:\n\n Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from \n government relief programs most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)\n\nPart of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.\nThe two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:\n\nApril 12-18 2020\nJanuary 24-30 2021\n\nThese coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.\nSource: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)\nTherefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.\nFurther, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.\nIt is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:\n\n ... has at least\n one financial transactionusing any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)\n\nSo, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...\nPerhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.\nTechnicals\nExamining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.\nSource: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)\nWhen examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.\nSource: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)\nFrom the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.\nCaution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.\nSource: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)\nFurther, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been significant liquidity issues the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.\nSource: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)\nGiven the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.\nPrice Targets\nOn the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.\nSource: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)\nHowever, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.\nI do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.\nIf the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).\nRisks\nWith respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.\nThe company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?\nIf the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.\nFurther, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.\nAgain, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.\nSummary\nSQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.\nFrom a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.\nAdditionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896854722,"gmtCreate":1628571437566,"gmtModify":1631893690713,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Whattt","listText":"Whattt","text":"Whattt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896854722","repostId":"1152604328","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152173202,"gmtCreate":1625278401906,"gmtModify":1633941841202,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment!Thank you!","listText":"Please like and comment!Thank you!","text":"Please like and comment!Thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152173202","repostId":"1114445293","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114445293","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625277820,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114445293?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood的IPO可能是股市已见顶的迹象</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114445293","media":"Barron's","summary":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguish","content":"<p>Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.</p><p><blockquote>正如一句老话所说，没有什么比过度更成功的了。直到它没有，这一直是市场周期的显著特征，最引人注目的是在本世纪。与去年大流行引发的爆发不同，2000年互联网泡沫破裂和2008年金融危机的标志是渴望抓住时机和投资者资金的公司进行首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> All of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都是可能成为本周期敲响钟声的事件的序幕，即Robinhood的首次公开募股，这家在线经纪商开创了零佣金的先河，吸引了新一代人进行投资和交易。该文件已于上周提交给SEC。这里讨论了这家声称投资民主化的新贵的财务细节（并在此过程中被经纪业务自律机构Finra处以创纪录的7000万美元罚款），但有几个要点深深地埋藏在S-1文件中。</blockquote></p><p> Customer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月31日，客户资产总额比去年同期增加了四倍多，达到809亿美元，其中股票占了最大份额（约651亿美元）。期权资产规模相对较小，为20亿美元，但占3月份季度4.204亿美元交易收入的近一半（1.979亿美元）。尽管股票资产是期权资产的40倍，但股票产生了1.333亿美元的收入。来自加密货币的收入总计8760万美元，客户的加密资产总计116亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Robinhood非常重视向手段有限的新手投资者开放市场，让他们购买自己喜欢的股票的部分股票，但这并不是其最大的业务。相反，投机性期权交易在今年早些时候爆发，尤其是在YOLO（你只能活一次）人群中，他们愿意在Reddit上谈论的廉价、即将到期的评级股票上押上几美元。</blockquote></p><p> There are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，随着经济重新开放和恢复到大流行前的正常状态（新冠病例在稳步下降后也随之上升），在冬季达到顶峰的疯狂交易已经有所缓解。在Robinhood这样的经纪平台上交易加密货币可能更简单，但DeFi（去中心化金融）的优势不应该是根本不需要中介吗？</blockquote></p><p> Bulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood的多头将押注于其独立交易模式的持续增长，而不是投资者通过顾问使用被动基金，文件对此进行了嘲笑。该经纪商承诺为其客户保留高达35%的IPO资金，这些客户往往是热情的买家，更重要的是，在动荡时期用“钻石手”抓住他们。</blockquote></p><p> And, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions of<i>The Big Short</i>, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.</p><p><blockquote>迈克尔·伯里告诉我们的同事康纳·史密斯，事实上，未来可能会出现动荡，甚至更糟。伯里，书和电影版本中的关键人物<i>大空头</i>，在次贷崩溃之前，通过做空房地产市场而赚了一大笔钱。最近，他是GameStop（股票代码：GME）的早期看涨者，但在围绕原始meme股票的狂热开始之前，他在2020年第四季度获利了结。现在他警告说，这种狂热将以眼泪告终。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”</p><p><blockquote>“我不知道像这样的模因股票什么时候会崩溃，但我们可能不必等太久，因为我相信散户人群已经完全投资于这个主题，而华尔街也抓住了这一机会，”他在一封电子邮件中告诉康纳。“我们已经没有新的资金来跟上潮流了。”</blockquote></p><p> The Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,<i>Barron’s</i>Andrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood的发行并不是第一次可能成为市场顶级事件的股票销售。早在2007年中期，<i>巴伦周刊</i>安德鲁·巴里(Andrew Bary)正是这样称呼黑石集团(BX)的IPO，就在对过度次级贷款的担忧席卷全球货币市场的几周前，以及道琼斯工业平均指数在次年10月见顶的几个月前。</blockquote></p><p> And who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,<i>Barron’s</i>published itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.</p><p><blockquote>谁能忘记20世纪90年代末一系列古怪的IPO，这些IPO预示着互联网的潜力，但缺乏盈利或收入，甚至缺乏可行的商业计划？到2000年3月，<i>巴伦周刊</i>发表了开创性的封面故事，揭示了这些互联网宠儿正在迅速烧钱。就在那个月，纳斯达克综合指数发表了讲话；到2002年10月，该指数将下跌近80%。</blockquote></p><p> While Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&amp;P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Burry警告称，模因股票将从大幅上涨的水平暴跌（一些公司通过发行估值丰厚的股票来利用这一点），但整体市场——目前的交易价格约为未来12个月预期市盈率的21.5倍——尚未接近过去周期的泡沫水平。但对市场策略师和机构投资者的调查认为上涨空间不大，标准普尔500指数的年终目标平均约为4200点，低于周四收盘价4319点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And while it’s always dangerous to say this, it<i>is</i>different this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这么说总是很危险，但<i>是</i>这一次与2000年和2008年不同。在那些年的崩盘之前，美联储已经收紧政策一段时间了，导致收益率曲线持平至负斜率。短期国债收益率被推高至长期国债收益率之上，导致债券市场预测经济将走向悬崖。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，美联储才刚刚开始谈论减少对美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的大量购买。这将为美联储关键联邦基金目标利率的初步上调做准备，目前该利率处于0%至0.25%的最低范围，最早将于2022年，也可能要到2023年。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>根据圣路易斯的数据，过去三个月收益率曲线略有平坦，2年期和10年期国债之间的利差从3月29日的1.59个百分点收窄至1.23个百分点（仍然是宽松政策的迹象）美联储。</blockquote></p><p> But there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic book<i>Irrational Exuberance</i>.</p><p><blockquote>但任何市场狂热也有心理因素在起作用。诺贝尔奖得主罗伯特·席勒在他的经典著作中写道：“大多数投资者似乎也将股市本身视为一种自然力量。他们没有充分意识到，作为一个群体，他们自己决定了市场的水平。”<i>非理性繁荣</i>.</blockquote></p><p> “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，价格水平在一定程度上是由自我实现的预言驱动的，该预言基于广大大小投资者持有的类似预感，并得到新闻媒体的强化，这些媒体往往满足于认可这种投资者诱导的传统智慧。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has been<i>Barron’s</i>credo in the century since its founding.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以权衡交易者的预感与Robinhood IPO的相关性。至于后一种关于媒体的说法，我们表示反对；相反的意见而不是传统的智慧<i>巴伦周刊</i>自成立以来的一个世纪里的信条。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood的IPO可能是股市已见顶的迹象</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood的IPO可能是股市已见顶的迹象</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.</p><p><blockquote>正如一句老话所说，没有什么比过度更成功的了。直到它没有，这一直是市场周期的显著特征，最引人注目的是在本世纪。与去年大流行引发的爆发不同，2000年互联网泡沫破裂和2008年金融危机的标志是渴望抓住时机和投资者资金的公司进行首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> All of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都是可能成为本周期敲响钟声的事件的序幕，即Robinhood的首次公开募股，这家在线经纪商开创了零佣金的先河，吸引了新一代人进行投资和交易。该文件已于上周提交给SEC。这里讨论了这家声称投资民主化的新贵的财务细节（并在此过程中被经纪业务自律机构Finra处以创纪录的7000万美元罚款），但有几个要点深深地埋藏在S-1文件中。</blockquote></p><p> Customer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月31日，客户资产总额比去年同期增加了四倍多，达到809亿美元，其中股票占了最大份额（约651亿美元）。期权资产规模相对较小，为20亿美元，但占3月份季度4.204亿美元交易收入的近一半（1.979亿美元）。尽管股票资产是期权资产的40倍，但股票产生了1.333亿美元的收入。来自加密货币的收入总计8760万美元，客户的加密资产总计116亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Robinhood非常重视向手段有限的新手投资者开放市场，让他们购买自己喜欢的股票的部分股票，但这并不是其最大的业务。相反，投机性期权交易在今年早些时候爆发，尤其是在YOLO（你只能活一次）人群中，他们愿意在Reddit上谈论的廉价、即将到期的评级股票上押上几美元。</blockquote></p><p> There are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，随着经济重新开放和恢复到大流行前的正常状态（新冠病例在稳步下降后也随之上升），在冬季达到顶峰的疯狂交易已经有所缓解。在Robinhood这样的经纪平台上交易加密货币可能更简单，但DeFi（去中心化金融）的优势不应该是根本不需要中介吗？</blockquote></p><p> Bulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood的多头将押注于其独立交易模式的持续增长，而不是投资者通过顾问使用被动基金，文件对此进行了嘲笑。该经纪商承诺为其客户保留高达35%的IPO资金，这些客户往往是热情的买家，更重要的是，在动荡时期用“钻石手”抓住他们。</blockquote></p><p> And, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions of<i>The Big Short</i>, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.</p><p><blockquote>迈克尔·伯里告诉我们的同事康纳·史密斯，事实上，未来可能会出现动荡，甚至更糟。伯里，书和电影版本中的关键人物<i>大空头</i>，在次贷崩溃之前，通过做空房地产市场而赚了一大笔钱。最近，他是GameStop（股票代码：GME）的早期看涨者，但在围绕原始meme股票的狂热开始之前，他在2020年第四季度获利了结。现在他警告说，这种狂热将以眼泪告终。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”</p><p><blockquote>“我不知道像这样的模因股票什么时候会崩溃，但我们可能不必等太久，因为我相信散户人群已经完全投资于这个主题，而华尔街也抓住了这一机会，”他在一封电子邮件中告诉康纳。“我们已经没有新的资金来跟上潮流了。”</blockquote></p><p> The Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,<i>Barron’s</i>Andrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood的发行并不是第一次可能成为市场顶级事件的股票销售。早在2007年中期，<i>巴伦周刊</i>安德鲁·巴里(Andrew Bary)正是这样称呼黑石集团(BX)的IPO，就在对过度次级贷款的担忧席卷全球货币市场的几周前，以及道琼斯工业平均指数在次年10月见顶的几个月前。</blockquote></p><p> And who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,<i>Barron’s</i>published itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.</p><p><blockquote>谁能忘记20世纪90年代末一系列古怪的IPO，这些IPO预示着互联网的潜力，但缺乏盈利或收入，甚至缺乏可行的商业计划？到2000年3月，<i>巴伦周刊</i>发表了开创性的封面故事，揭示了这些互联网宠儿正在迅速烧钱。就在那个月，纳斯达克综合指数发表了讲话；到2002年10月，该指数将下跌近80%。</blockquote></p><p> While Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&amp;P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Burry警告称，模因股票将从大幅上涨的水平暴跌（一些公司通过发行估值丰厚的股票来利用这一点），但整体市场——目前的交易价格约为未来12个月预期市盈率的21.5倍——尚未接近过去周期的泡沫水平。但对市场策略师和机构投资者的调查认为上涨空间不大，标准普尔500指数的年终目标平均约为4200点，低于周四收盘价4319点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And while it’s always dangerous to say this, it<i>is</i>different this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这么说总是很危险，但<i>是</i>这一次与2000年和2008年不同。在那些年的崩盘之前，美联储已经收紧政策一段时间了，导致收益率曲线持平至负斜率。短期国债收益率被推高至长期国债收益率之上，导致债券市场预测经济将走向悬崖。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，美联储才刚刚开始谈论减少对美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的大量购买。这将为美联储关键联邦基金目标利率的初步上调做准备，目前该利率处于0%至0.25%的最低范围，最早将于2022年，也可能要到2023年。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>根据圣路易斯的数据，过去三个月收益率曲线略有平坦，2年期和10年期国债之间的利差从3月29日的1.59个百分点收窄至1.23个百分点（仍然是宽松政策的迹象）美联储。</blockquote></p><p> But there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic book<i>Irrational Exuberance</i>.</p><p><blockquote>但任何市场狂热也有心理因素在起作用。诺贝尔奖得主罗伯特·席勒在他的经典著作中写道：“大多数投资者似乎也将股市本身视为一种自然力量。他们没有充分意识到，作为一个群体，他们自己决定了市场的水平。”<i>非理性繁荣</i>.</blockquote></p><p> “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，价格水平在一定程度上是由自我实现的预言驱动的，该预言基于广大大小投资者持有的类似预感，并得到新闻媒体的强化，这些媒体往往满足于认可这种投资者诱导的传统智慧。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has been<i>Barron’s</i>credo in the century since its founding.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以权衡交易者的预感与Robinhood IPO的相关性。至于后一种关于媒体的说法，我们表示反对；相反的意见而不是传统的智慧<i>巴伦周刊</i>自成立以来的一个世纪里的信条。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-explains-why-netflix-should-sell-ads-51624987059\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-explains-why-netflix-should-sell-ads-51624987059","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114445293","content_text":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.\nAll of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.\nCustomer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.\nWhile Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.\nThere are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?\nBulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.\nAnd, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions ofThe Big Short, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.\n“I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”\nThe Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,Barron’sAndrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.\nAnd who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,Barron’spublished itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.\nWhile Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.\nAnd while it’s always dangerous to say this, itisdifferent this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.\nNow, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.\nThe yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.\nBut there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic bookIrrational Exuberance.\n“In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”\nReaders can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has beenBarron’scredo in the century since its founding.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180882042,"gmtCreate":1623198528786,"gmtModify":1634035957246,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180882042","repostId":"2141126527","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112865739,"gmtCreate":1622861095121,"gmtModify":1634097276360,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112865739","repostId":"1106312903","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106312903","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622855773,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106312903?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>未来一周的美国IPO：多元化的8次IPO中的数字支付、心理健康服务等</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106312903","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"Summary\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental h","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</li>  <li>Payments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.</li>  <li>Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.</li> </ul> Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>目前有八起IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等领域。</li><li>支付平台Marqeta计划以124亿美元的市值筹集10亿美元。</li><li>中国在线招聘平台看准计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。</li></ul>目前有八起IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等领域。</blockquote></p><p> Payments platform&nbsp;<b>Marqeta</b>(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.</p><p><blockquote>支付平台<b>马尔凯塔</b>(MQ)计划以124亿美元的市值筹集10亿美元。该公司的平台允许企业启动和管理自己的卡计划，向客户或最终用户发行卡，以及授权和结算交易。Marqeta发展迅速，其客户包括Affirm(AFRM)和DoorDash(DASH)等品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online recruitment platform&nbsp;<b>Kanzhun</b>(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线招聘平台<b>看准</b>(BZ)计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。看准的核心产品BOSS直聘是一个移动原生平台，促进求职者和企业客户之间的直接聊天。该公司声称，按月活跃用户数计算，它是2020年中国最大的在线招聘平台。</blockquote></p><p> Mental health services provider&nbsp;<b>LifeStance Health</b>(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>心理健康服务提供者<b>生命健康</b>(LFST)计划以61亿美元的市值筹集6.4亿美元。LifeStance表示，截至2021年3月31日，它已经建立了美国最大的门诊心理健康平台之一，在27个州的73个MSA中雇用了3,300多名持牌心理健康临床医生。尽管2021年第一季度的息税前利润转为负值，但该公司仍实现了增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israel’s&nbsp;<b>monday.com</b>(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.</p><p><blockquote>以色列的<b>周一网</b>(MNDY)计划以68亿美元的市值筹集4.9亿美元。monday.com允许组织轻松构建满足其需求的软件应用程序和工作管理工具。截至2021年3月31日，它为190多个国家200多个行业的近128,000名客户提供服务。Salesforce和Zoom计划同时进行私募，总共投资1.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> BPO vendor&nbsp;<b>TaskUs</b>(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>BPO供应商<b>塔斯库斯</b>(TASK)计划以25亿美元的市值筹集3.04亿美元。TaskUs是一家数字商业服务外包商，提供数字客户体验服务、内容安全服务和人工智能运营。截至2020年12月31日，该公司盈利强劲，增长强劲，拥有100多家客户。</blockquote></p><p> Data-driven marketing platform&nbsp;<b>Zeta Global</b>(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>数据驱动营销平台<b>泽塔全球</b>(ZETA)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集2.5亿美元。该公司的Zeta营销平台使用身份数据通过电子邮件、社交媒体、网络、聊天、联网电视、视频和其他渠道锁定、联系和吸引消费者。Zeta已实现盈利，为1,000多家客户提供服务，2020年提供约5亿次广告展示。</blockquote></p><p> Online luxury goods marketplace&nbsp;<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.</p><p><blockquote>网上奢侈品市场<b>第一个</b>(DIBS)计划以7.73亿美元的市值筹集1.12亿美元。1stDibs连接复古、古董和当代家具、家居装饰、珠宝、手表、艺术和时尚的买家和卖家。2020年，该市场有超过58,000名买家在过去一年中进行了购买，平均每年的总购买额超过5,500美元。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online tutoring platform&nbsp;<b>Zhangmen Education</b>(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线辅导平台<b>掌门教育</b>(ZME)计划以19亿美元的市值筹集4300万美元。掌门教育表示，自2017年以来，按收入计算，它一直是中国最大的在线K-12辅导服务提供商，2020年占据32%的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d771f02e44d9d489ff772f1577280332\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"666\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Street research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.</p><p><blockquote>预计将有6家公司接受街头调查，多达11家公司的禁售期将到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2011年6月3日，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今下跌6.0%，而标普500上涨11.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有最多的ETF包括Zoom Video（ZM）和优步（UBER）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌1.1%，而ACWX指数上涨10.5%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有最多的ETF包括Nexi和EQT Partners。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>未来一周的美国IPO：多元化的8次IPO中的数字支付、心理健康服务等</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>未来一周的美国IPO：多元化的8次IPO中的数字支付、心理健康服务等</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</li>  <li>Payments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.</li>  <li>Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.</li> </ul> Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>目前有八起IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等领域。</li><li>支付平台Marqeta计划以124亿美元的市值筹集10亿美元。</li><li>中国在线招聘平台看准计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。</li></ul>目前有八起IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等领域。</blockquote></p><p> Payments platform&nbsp;<b>Marqeta</b>(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.</p><p><blockquote>支付平台<b>马尔凯塔</b>(MQ)计划以124亿美元的市值筹集10亿美元。该公司的平台允许企业启动和管理自己的卡计划，向客户或最终用户发行卡，以及授权和结算交易。Marqeta发展迅速，其客户包括Affirm(AFRM)和DoorDash(DASH)等品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online recruitment platform&nbsp;<b>Kanzhun</b>(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线招聘平台<b>看准</b>(BZ)计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。看准的核心产品BOSS直聘是一个移动原生平台，促进求职者和企业客户之间的直接聊天。该公司声称，按月活跃用户数计算，它是2020年中国最大的在线招聘平台。</blockquote></p><p> Mental health services provider&nbsp;<b>LifeStance Health</b>(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>心理健康服务提供者<b>生命健康</b>(LFST)计划以61亿美元的市值筹集6.4亿美元。LifeStance表示，截至2021年3月31日，它已经建立了美国最大的门诊心理健康平台之一，在27个州的73个MSA中雇用了3,300多名持牌心理健康临床医生。尽管2021年第一季度的息税前利润转为负值，但该公司仍实现了增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israel’s&nbsp;<b>monday.com</b>(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.</p><p><blockquote>以色列的<b>周一网</b>(MNDY)计划以68亿美元的市值筹集4.9亿美元。monday.com允许组织轻松构建满足其需求的软件应用程序和工作管理工具。截至2021年3月31日，它为190多个国家200多个行业的近128,000名客户提供服务。Salesforce和Zoom计划同时进行私募，总共投资1.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> BPO vendor&nbsp;<b>TaskUs</b>(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>BPO供应商<b>塔斯库斯</b>(TASK)计划以25亿美元的市值筹集3.04亿美元。TaskUs是一家数字商业服务外包商，提供数字客户体验服务、内容安全服务和人工智能运营。截至2020年12月31日，该公司盈利强劲，增长强劲，拥有100多家客户。</blockquote></p><p> Data-driven marketing platform&nbsp;<b>Zeta Global</b>(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>数据驱动营销平台<b>泽塔全球</b>(ZETA)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集2.5亿美元。该公司的Zeta营销平台使用身份数据通过电子邮件、社交媒体、网络、聊天、联网电视、视频和其他渠道锁定、联系和吸引消费者。Zeta已实现盈利，为1,000多家客户提供服务，2020年提供约5亿次广告展示。</blockquote></p><p> Online luxury goods marketplace&nbsp;<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.</p><p><blockquote>网上奢侈品市场<b>第一个</b>(DIBS)计划以7.73亿美元的市值筹集1.12亿美元。1stDibs连接复古、古董和当代家具、家居装饰、珠宝、手表、艺术和时尚的买家和卖家。2020年，该市场有超过58,000名买家在过去一年中进行了购买，平均每年的总购买额超过5,500美元。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online tutoring platform&nbsp;<b>Zhangmen Education</b>(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线辅导平台<b>掌门教育</b>(ZME)计划以19亿美元的市值筹集4300万美元。掌门教育表示，自2017年以来，按收入计算，它一直是中国最大的在线K-12辅导服务提供商，2020年占据32%的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d771f02e44d9d489ff772f1577280332\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"666\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Street research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.</p><p><blockquote>预计将有6家公司接受街头调查，多达11家公司的禁售期将到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2011年6月3日，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今下跌6.0%，而标普500上涨11.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有最多的ETF包括Zoom Video（ZM）和优步（UBER）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌1.1%，而ACWX指数上涨10.5%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有最多的ETF包括Nexi和EQT Partners。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/82421/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-payments-mental-health-services-and-more-in-a-div\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MNDY":"Monday.com Ltd.","DIBS":"1stdibs.com Inc.","ZETA":"Zeta Global Holdings Corp.","LFST":"LifeStance Health Group, Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯","ZME":"掌门教育","MQ":"Marqeta, Inc.","TASK":"TaskUs Inc.","BZ":"BOSS直聘",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/82421/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-payments-mental-health-services-and-more-in-a-div","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106312903","content_text":"Summary\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.\nPayments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.\nChinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.\nPayments platform Marqeta(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.\nChinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.\nMental health services provider LifeStance Health(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.\nIsrael’s monday.com(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.\nBPO vendor TaskUs(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.\nData-driven marketing platform Zeta Global(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.\nOnline luxury goods marketplace 1stDibs(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.\nChinese online tutoring platform Zhangmen Education(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.\n\nStreet research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIBS":0.9,"MQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MNDY":0.9,"TASK":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZME":0.9,"ZETA":0.9,"BZ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"LFST":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103236542,"gmtCreate":1619785460086,"gmtModify":1634209958129,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment my post please!","listText":"Please like and comment my post please!","text":"Please like and comment my post please!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103236542","repostId":"1180935504","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180935504","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1619785386,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180935504?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-30 20:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan development arm seeks to fund vaccine supply chain<blockquote>摩根大通开发部门寻求为疫苗供应链提供资金</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180935504","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM)'s development finance institution which aims to fund more than $100 billion in a","content":"<p>JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM)'s development finance institution which aims to fund more than $100 billion in activities per year is looking to back more supply chain deals to help fight COVID-19 in developing countries, a bank executive told Reuters.</p><p><blockquote>一位银行高管告诉路透社，摩根大通（纽约证券交易所股票代码：JPM）的发展金融机构旨在每年为超过1000亿美元的活动提供资金，该机构正在寻求支持更多供应链交易，以帮助发展中国家抗击COVID-19。</blockquote></p><p> Some emerging markets such as India have struggled with supplies of vaccines and other medical equipment in the wake of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>疫情爆发后，印度等一些新兴市场在疫苗和其他医疗设备的供应方面遇到了困难。</blockquote></p><p> \"We'd like to do more transactions that have development and impact at their heart,\" said Faheen Allibhoy, managing director of the institution.</p><p><blockquote>该机构董事总经理Faheen Allibhoy表示：“我们希望进行更多以发展和影响为核心的交易。”</blockquote></p><p> The vaccine supply chain, gender-focused lending, water and food security, and climate-smart agriculture are areas where the institution will look to focus, Allibhoy said.</p><p><blockquote>Allibhoy说，疫苗供应链、以性别为重点的贷款、水和粮食安全以及气候智能型农业是该机构将重点关注的领域。</blockquote></p><p> The JPMorgan Development Finance Institution was set up last year and aims to fund more than $100 billion annually in development activities from investment banking deals, with extra contributions from its markets businesses.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通发展金融机构成立于去年，旨在通过投资银行交易为发展活动提供超过1000亿美元的资金，并从其市场业务中获得额外贡献。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, the institution qualified 437 transactions as development finance worth a total of $146 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，该机构将437笔交易认定为开发融资，总价值1460亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> It has helped with bonds for the governments of Morocco and the Dominican Republic, where the funds raised are aimed at helping companies affected by the pandemic and financing the state budget, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>它帮助摩洛哥和多米尼加共和国政府发行债券，筹集的资金分别用于帮助受疫情影响的公司和资助国家预算。</blockquote></p><p> In 2021 it is also focusing on more deals where the bank acts as a financing structuring agent, having in February completed its first in Africa, a $620 million deal involving Liquid Telecom, Allibhoy said.</p><p><blockquote>Allibhoy表示，2021年，该银行还将重点关注更多充当融资结构代理的交易，该银行已于2月份完成了在非洲的首笔交易，涉及Liquid Telecom的6.2亿美元交易。</blockquote></p><p> This month, the bank announced plans to finance and facilitate more than $2.5 trillion over 10 years to advance long-term solutions that fight climate change and contribute to sustainable development.</p><p><blockquote>本月，世行宣布计划在10年内融资和促进超过2.5万亿美元，以推进应对气候变化和促进可持续发展的长期解决方案。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan development arm seeks to fund vaccine supply 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan development arm seeks to fund vaccine supply chain<blockquote>摩根大通开发部门寻求为疫苗供应链提供资金</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-30 20:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM)'s development finance institution which aims to fund more than $100 billion in activities per year is looking to back more supply chain deals to help fight COVID-19 in developing countries, a bank executive told Reuters.</p><p><blockquote>一位银行高管告诉路透社，摩根大通（纽约证券交易所股票代码：JPM）的发展金融机构旨在每年为超过1000亿美元的活动提供资金，该机构正在寻求支持更多供应链交易，以帮助发展中国家抗击COVID-19。</blockquote></p><p> Some emerging markets such as India have struggled with supplies of vaccines and other medical equipment in the wake of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>疫情爆发后，印度等一些新兴市场在疫苗和其他医疗设备的供应方面遇到了困难。</blockquote></p><p> \"We'd like to do more transactions that have development and impact at their heart,\" said Faheen Allibhoy, managing director of the institution.</p><p><blockquote>该机构董事总经理Faheen Allibhoy表示：“我们希望进行更多以发展和影响为核心的交易。”</blockquote></p><p> The vaccine supply chain, gender-focused lending, water and food security, and climate-smart agriculture are areas where the institution will look to focus, Allibhoy said.</p><p><blockquote>Allibhoy说，疫苗供应链、以性别为重点的贷款、水和粮食安全以及气候智能型农业是该机构将重点关注的领域。</blockquote></p><p> The JPMorgan Development Finance Institution was set up last year and aims to fund more than $100 billion annually in development activities from investment banking deals, with extra contributions from its markets businesses.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通发展金融机构成立于去年，旨在通过投资银行交易为发展活动提供超过1000亿美元的资金，并从其市场业务中获得额外贡献。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, the institution qualified 437 transactions as development finance worth a total of $146 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，该机构将437笔交易认定为开发融资，总价值1460亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> It has helped with bonds for the governments of Morocco and the Dominican Republic, where the funds raised are aimed at helping companies affected by the pandemic and financing the state budget, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>它帮助摩洛哥和多米尼加共和国政府发行债券，筹集的资金分别用于帮助受疫情影响的公司和资助国家预算。</blockquote></p><p> In 2021 it is also focusing on more deals where the bank acts as a financing structuring agent, having in February completed its first in Africa, a $620 million deal involving Liquid Telecom, Allibhoy said.</p><p><blockquote>Allibhoy表示，2021年，该银行还将重点关注更多充当融资结构代理的交易，该银行已于2月份完成了在非洲的首笔交易，涉及Liquid Telecom的6.2亿美元交易。</blockquote></p><p> This month, the bank announced plans to finance and facilitate more than $2.5 trillion over 10 years to advance long-term solutions that fight climate change and contribute to sustainable development.</p><p><blockquote>本月，世行宣布计划在10年内融资和促进超过2.5万亿美元，以推进应对气候变化和促进可持续发展的长期解决方案。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JPM":"摩根大通"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180935504","content_text":"JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM)'s development finance institution which aims to fund more than $100 billion in activities per year is looking to back more supply chain deals to help fight COVID-19 in developing countries, a bank executive told Reuters.\nSome emerging markets such as India have struggled with supplies of vaccines and other medical equipment in the wake of the pandemic.\n\"We'd like to do more transactions that have development and impact at their heart,\" said Faheen Allibhoy, managing director of the institution.\nThe vaccine supply chain, gender-focused lending, water and food security, and climate-smart agriculture are areas where the institution will look to focus, Allibhoy said.\nThe JPMorgan Development Finance Institution was set up last year and aims to fund more than $100 billion annually in development activities from investment banking deals, with extra contributions from its markets businesses.\nIn 2020, the institution qualified 437 transactions as development finance worth a total of $146 billion.\nIt has helped with bonds for the governments of Morocco and the Dominican Republic, where the funds raised are aimed at helping companies affected by the pandemic and financing the state budget, respectively.\nIn 2021 it is also focusing on more deals where the bank acts as a financing structuring agent, having in February completed its first in Africa, a $620 million deal involving Liquid Telecom, Allibhoy said.\nThis month, the bank announced plans to finance and facilitate more than $2.5 trillion over 10 years to advance long-term solutions that fight climate change and contribute to sustainable development.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JPM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124878650,"gmtCreate":1624760249070,"gmtModify":1633948991162,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh dear, another fall in price?Please like and comment!","listText":"Oh dear, another fall in price?Please like and comment!","text":"Oh dear, another fall in price?Please like and comment!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124878650","repostId":"1121141266","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121141266","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624760169,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121141266?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121141266","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.Tesla  apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”The notice from","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局周五晚间表示，由于辅助驾驶功能存在问题，特斯拉将不得不“召回”近30万辆中国制造或进口的汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在中国社交媒体网站微博上道歉。据《华尔街日报》报道，该公司表示：“对于此次召回给所有车主带来的不便，我们深表歉意。”“特斯拉将严格按照国家要求，持续提升安全性。”</blockquote></p><p> The notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service&nbsp;AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question from<i>Barron’s</i>on whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.</p><p><blockquote>据法新社报道，中国监管机构的通知称，巡航控制系统可能会意外启动，从而导致碰撞。报道称，特斯拉将能够为受影响的客户远程更新软件，这样他们就不必归还汽车。监管机构没有立即回答来自<i>巴伦周刊</i>关于这个问题是否已经在中国导致了碰撞。</blockquote></p><p> China is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by&nbsp;more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.</p><p><blockquote>中国是特斯拉的一个重要市场，该公司约30%的汽车在中国销售。中国的销售额最近参差不齐，4月份有所下降，随后5月份的数据更加乐观。自2019年以来，特斯拉一直在上海工厂生产汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with&nbsp;a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些中国客户抱怨特斯拉的质量和服务，并在四月份的上海车展上提出了抗议。特斯拉四月份就其处理客户投诉的方式向客户道歉。</blockquote></p><p> The issues are part of&nbsp;a larger public relations problem&nbsp;that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was&nbsp;on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.</p><p><blockquote>这些问题是更大的公关问题的一部分，该问题可能会给特斯拉股价带来压力，该股在2020年上涨八倍后，今年下跌了5%。尽管如此，该股在过去一周一直在上涨，这可能与对季末汽车交付的乐观情绪有关。特斯拉尚未公布第二季度财报发布日期。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚中国的问题是否也会影响美国的车辆。周六上午，特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局周五晚间表示，由于辅助驾驶功能存在问题，特斯拉将不得不“召回”近30万辆中国制造或进口的汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在中国社交媒体网站微博上道歉。据《华尔街日报》报道，该公司表示：“对于此次召回给所有车主带来的不便，我们深表歉意。”“特斯拉将严格按照国家要求，持续提升安全性。”</blockquote></p><p> The notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service&nbsp;AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question from<i>Barron’s</i>on whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.</p><p><blockquote>据法新社报道，中国监管机构的通知称，巡航控制系统可能会意外启动，从而导致碰撞。报道称，特斯拉将能够为受影响的客户远程更新软件，这样他们就不必归还汽车。监管机构没有立即回答来自<i>巴伦周刊</i>关于这个问题是否已经在中国导致了碰撞。</blockquote></p><p> China is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by&nbsp;more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.</p><p><blockquote>中国是特斯拉的一个重要市场，该公司约30%的汽车在中国销售。中国的销售额最近参差不齐，4月份有所下降，随后5月份的数据更加乐观。自2019年以来，特斯拉一直在上海工厂生产汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with&nbsp;a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些中国客户抱怨特斯拉的质量和服务，并在四月份的上海车展上提出了抗议。特斯拉四月份就其处理客户投诉的方式向客户道歉。</blockquote></p><p> The issues are part of&nbsp;a larger public relations problem&nbsp;that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was&nbsp;on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.</p><p><blockquote>这些问题是更大的公关问题的一部分，该问题可能会给特斯拉股价带来压力，该股在2020年上涨八倍后，今年下跌了5%。尽管如此，该股在过去一周一直在上涨，这可能与对季末汽车交付的乐观情绪有关。特斯拉尚未公布第二季度财报发布日期。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚中国的问题是否也会影响美国的车辆。周六上午，特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-recall-china-51624718932?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-recall-china-51624718932?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121141266","content_text":"Tesla will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.\nTesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”\nThe notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question fromBarron’son whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.\nChina is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.\nLately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.\nThe issues are part of a larger public relations problem that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.\nIt’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167161639,"gmtCreate":1624252720421,"gmtModify":1634008833024,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment :) make this the top!","listText":"Pls like and comment :) make this the top!","text":"Pls like and comment :) make this the top!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167161639","repostId":"2145108800","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169665558,"gmtCreate":1623833535374,"gmtModify":1634027388452,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169665558","repostId":"2143760952","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}