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宇宙赛亚人

2020-08-14

$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$一切顺利，马上暴涨

宇宙赛亚人

2020-08-13

$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$现在割肉的韭菜，下个月后悔去吧，peer review一出，就是暴涨，现在不拿住，等着哭吧

宇宙赛亚人

2020-08-14

$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$机构疯狂增持ino，马上暴涨，立刻买入

宇宙赛亚人

2020-07-30

$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$19.46，哎

宇宙赛亚人

2020-06-03

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$周线能否上1000？

宇宙赛亚人

2020-05-16

$波音(BA)$下周有可能上涨吗

宇宙赛亚人

2020-08-14

$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$不要抱着赌博的心态炒股，你根本就不知道屏幕后面是人是鬼

宇宙赛亚人

2020-08-13

$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$越是下跌，越是考验心智，机会只会给patient的人，你抓不住，就飞了

宇宙赛亚人

2020-08-03

$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$你说这股是去25还是去15

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Pharmaceuticals(INO)$完美的股票，强强强","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/947523608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3938,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"275819275022896","authorId":"275819275022896","name":"约翰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad1bbc78ee49142cbe14dec72f0436a6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"275819275022896","idStr":"275819275022896"},"content":"如果你一开始就是空头，发疯是策略，请继续你的表演，我就当看戏。如果你是多头，那就一起等inovio的表演, 网上那么多帖子说明情况你看不懂？总结不出趋势？笨","text":"如果你一开始就是空头，发疯是策略，请继续你的表演，我就当看戏。如果你是多头，那就一起等inovio的表演, 网上那么多帖子说明情况你看不懂？总结不出趋势？笨","html":"如果你一开始就是空头，发疯是策略，请继续你的表演，我就当看戏。如果你是多头，那就一起等inovio的表演, 网上那么多帖子说明情况你看不懂？总结不出趋势？笨"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":947569071,"gmtCreate":1597358093793,"gmtModify":1704215567481,"author":{"id":"3547704281442833","authorId":"3547704281442833","name":"宇宙赛亚人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547704281442833","idStr":"3547704281442833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$</a>一切顺利，马上暴涨","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$</a>一切顺利，马上暴涨","text":"$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$一切顺利，马上暴涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":81,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/947569071","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3475637945724947","authorId":"3475637945724947","name":"小可可家里","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c55bd1fb360e80de150a1cc80ed4d47d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3475637945724947","idStr":"3475637945724947"},"content":"又疯了一个 [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]","text":"又疯了一个 [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]","html":"又疯了一个 [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":947628039,"gmtCreate":1597317522921,"gmtModify":1704215318749,"author":{"id":"3547704281442833","authorId":"3547704281442833","name":"宇宙赛亚人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547704281442833","idStr":"3547704281442833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$</a>现在割肉的韭菜，下个月后悔去吧，peer review一出，就是暴涨，现在不拿住，等着哭吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$</a>现在割肉的韭菜，下个月后悔去吧，peer review一出，就是暴涨，现在不拿住，等着哭吧","text":"$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$现在割肉的韭菜，下个月后悔去吧，peer review一出，就是暴涨，现在不拿住，等着哭吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":31,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/947628039","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5062,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3554087505971082","authorId":"3554087505971082","name":"江南水多多","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf6fbc7f6f77c32f8f555f1375fb2720","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3554087505971082","idStr":"3554087505971082"},"content":"晒下你的仓？","text":"晒下你的仓？","html":"晒下你的仓？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":947661546,"gmtCreate":1597313801085,"gmtModify":1704215305626,"author":{"id":"3547704281442833","authorId":"3547704281442833","name":"宇宙赛亚人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547704281442833","idStr":"3547704281442833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$</a>挺住，坚强，暴涨前的最后洗牌，只有心智坚定不移的人才能守得云开见月明","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$</a>挺住，坚强，暴涨前的最后洗牌，只有心智坚定不移的人才能守得云开见月明","text":"$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$挺住，坚强，暴涨前的最后洗牌，只有心智坚定不移的人才能守得云开见月明","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/947661546","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":947661127,"gmtCreate":1597313582869,"gmtModify":1704215304936,"author":{"id":"3547704281442833","authorId":"3547704281442833","name":"宇宙赛亚人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547704281442833","idStr":"3547704281442833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$</a>坚强，挺住，9月就peer 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Pharmaceuticals(INO)$每天一次老乡别走，你真美","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/947880739","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944780515,"gmtCreate":1597128034937,"gmtModify":1704214476237,"author":{"id":"3547704281442833","authorId":"3547704281442833","name":"宇宙赛亚人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547704281442833","idStr":"3547704281442833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$</a>垃圾成这样了，直奔15吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$</a>垃圾成这样了，直奔15吗","text":"$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$垃圾成这样了，直奔15吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944780515","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":945906082,"gmtCreate":1596403169446,"gmtModify":1704212048332,"author":{"id":"3547704281442833","authorId":"3547704281442833","name":"宇宙赛亚人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547704281442833","idStr":"3547704281442833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$</a>你说这股是去25还是去15","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$</a>你说这股是去25还是去15","text":"$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$你说这股是去25还是去15","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/945906082","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":942970532,"gmtCreate":1596052922026,"gmtModify":1704210819806,"author":{"id":"3547704281442833","authorId":"3547704281442833","name":"宇宙赛亚人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547704281442833","idStr":"3547704281442833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$</a>19.46，哎","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$</a>19.46，哎","text":"$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$19.46，哎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/942970532","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3554816230014420","authorId":"3554816230014420","name":"朱大仙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc7693861b288a719e74c555a5147243","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3554816230014420","idStr":"3554816230014420"},"content":"看来这周真得到15","text":"看来这周真得到15","html":"看来这周真得到15"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":946048754,"gmtCreate":1595541676178,"gmtModify":1704209369437,"author":{"id":"3547704281442833","authorId":"3547704281442833","name":"宇宙赛亚人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547704281442833","idStr":"3547704281442833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$</a>心累啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$</a>心累啊","text":"$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$心累啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/946048754","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1794,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"275819275022896","authorId":"275819275022896","name":"约翰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad1bbc78ee49142cbe14dec72f0436a6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"275819275022896","idStr":"275819275022896"},"content":"要赚钱那有不累的？这点程度已经累了？刺激的还在后面","text":"要赚钱那有不累的？这点程度已经累了？刺激的还在后面","html":"要赚钱那有不累的？这点程度已经累了？刺激的还在后面"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":948630195,"gmtCreate":1595340441917,"gmtModify":1704208621358,"author":{"id":"3547704281442833","authorId":"3547704281442833","name":"宇宙赛亚人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547704281442833","idStr":"3547704281442833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$</a>每天开盘跌一下，完全被操纵了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$</a>每天开盘跌一下，完全被操纵了","text":"$Inovio Pharmaceuticals(INO)$每天开盘跌一下，完全被操纵了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/948630195","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":940818333,"gmtCreate":1593738303422,"gmtModify":1704203074774,"author":{"id":"3547704281442833","authorId":"3547704281442833","name":"宇宙赛亚人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547704281442833","idStr":"3547704281442833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">$达美航空(DAL)$</a>自己技术有问题吧，扛不住了，天天高开暴跌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">$达美航空(DAL)$</a>自己技术有问题吧，扛不住了，天天高开暴跌","text":"$达美航空(DAL)$自己技术有问题吧，扛不住了，天天高开暴跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/940818333","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":940070741,"gmtCreate":1593615512583,"gmtModify":1704202614974,"author":{"id":"3547704281442833","authorId":"3547704281442833","name":"宇宙赛亚人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547704281442833","idStr":"3547704281442833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"你要能猜中早就亿万富翁了，在这里胡说八道什么","listText":"你要能猜中早就亿万富翁了，在这里胡说八道什么","text":"你要能猜中早就亿万富翁了，在这里胡说八道什么","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/940070741","repostId":"1175681725","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175681725","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1593610818,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175681725?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-01 21:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"前瞻“危机重重”的2020下半年","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175681725","media":"金十数据","summary":"上半年活久见：美股四度熔断、石油价格战、负油价、美联储无限QE+零利率……同时也提醒了投资者，下半年市场依旧不平静，冲突、异象、危机这些关键词依旧适用。\n而通过观察市场一些容易被忽视的细枝节末，我们可","content":"<p>上半年活久见：美股四度熔断、石油价格战、负油价、美联储无限QE+零利率……同时也提醒了投资者，下半年市场依旧不平静，冲突、异象、危机这些关键词依旧适用。</p>\n<p>而通过观察市场一些容易被忽视的细枝节末，我们可以大胆假设，2020年接下去的日子里，市场还可能会发生这些意外。</p>\n<p>01下半年9大“黑天鹅”猜想</p>\n<p><b>top1：第二波疫情爆发</b></p>\n<p>影响力：☆☆☆☆☆</p>\n<p>可能性：☆☆☆☆</p>\n<p>受影响较大的市场：黄金=全球股市&gt;美元&gt;全球债市</p>\n<p>部分国家的情况仍不容乐观，甚至有人担心第二波疫情会在今年秋季来袭。</p>\n<p>美国的情况，令人尤为担忧。近段时间已经有不少美国政经界人士表达过类似的担忧：</p>\n<p>美国得克萨斯州长：病毒正在以不可接受的速度传播。</p>\n<p>世卫组织卫生紧急项目负责人瑞安：发现美国多个州出现新冠肺炎病例的加速增长，多数新增病例为年轻人。</p>\n<p>同为重灾区的欧洲，也出现了一些不好的信号：</p>\n<p>世卫组织欧洲区域主任Hans Kluge：第二波疫情可能在秋天出现。</p>\n<p>人口密度极高的亚非拉地区，更是面临严峻挑战：</p>\n<p>韩国疾病控制和预防中心（KCDC）6月22日表示：韩国已出现第二波新冠肺炎疫情。</p>\n<p>日本东京都知事小池百合子：针对新冠病毒作出应对、为第二波疫情做好准备是最重要的。</p>\n<p><b>top2：美国大选爆冷</b></p>\n<p>影响力：☆☆☆☆☆</p>\n<p>可能性：☆☆☆☆</p>\n<p>受影响较大的市场：黄金=美元&gt;美股&gt;美债</p>\n<p>上半年的诸多意外搅乱了美国总统特朗普备战大选的步伐，而支持率的大幅波动更是令其伤透脑筋。</p>\n<p>根据路透汤森的最新报告，近期多项民调显示，特朗普的支持率被民主党提名人拜登逐渐抛离，双方的差距已经扩大到13个百分点。这是路透汤森自今年民主党开始党内提名初选以来，进行的所有民调中，差距最大的一次调查。</p>\n<p><b>top3：美联储祭出负利率or收益率曲线控制</b></p>\n<p>影响力：☆☆☆☆☆</p>\n<p>可能性：☆☆☆</p>\n<p>受影响较大的市场：美债&gt;美元=美股&gt;黄金</p>\n<p>先后推出零利率、无限QE以及一系列流动性工具后，美联储的家底快要被掏空。如果下半年再发生新的危机，怎么办？分析师们讨论得最多的，来来去去都是那两个措施：负利率或收益率曲线控制。</p>\n<p>富兰克林邓普顿投资公司在一份最新报告中指出，出于对第二波疫情和美国大选不确定性的担忧，美联储的官员们现在应该及早思考，下半年还能给经济提供何种援助。该公司分析师表示，考虑到负利率给金融部门带来的风险，美联储出台收益率曲线控制的可能性明显更大。报告指出，出台新政的节点可能是第三季度，原因如下：</p>\n<p>目前美国正在经历解禁后的经济反弹，但大选前夕若风险情绪上升可能造成美股、美债等市场的新一轮波动。这会给美联储带来新的压力，迫使其再度介入市场。</p>\n<p><b>top4：欧佩克+减产联盟拆伙</b></p>\n<p>影响力：☆☆☆☆☆</p>\n<p>可能性：☆☆☆</p>\n<p>受影响较大的市场：原油&gt;黄金&gt;全球股市</p>\n<p>沙特和俄罗斯在近期的欧佩克+会议中表现得一团和气，现在就猜想两大巨头会不会再度关系破裂，似乎有些危言耸听？</p>\n<p>然而，裂痕一直没有消除。比如两国对油价的追求不同，对石油收入的依赖程度也不一样。金十此前曾分析过，需求下滑这个难题一天不解决，欧佩克+分裂的可能就会一直存在。</p>\n<p>沙特和俄罗斯的和谐关系能维持多久，关键就看两国还能承受多大的压力：</p>\n<p>一方面 ，沙特大量发展计划停摆，大量油气设施被闲置，产能被严重削弱。</p>\n<p>另一方面俄罗斯国内工业产出严重下滑，减产是罪魁祸首。</p>\n<p><b>top5：美元危机</b></p>\n<p>影响力：☆☆☆☆☆</p>\n<p>可能性：☆☆☆</p>\n<p>受影响较大的市场：黄金、美债、全球股市和全球汇市都将遭受重大冲击</p>\n<p>美元崩盘说在今年上半年屡见不鲜，美指的明显回落也的确令人看到美元衰落的征兆。</p>\n<p>支撑这种说法的论点，主要有以下几个：</p>\n<p>根据IMF的说法，3月份的危机催生了美元荒现象，这导致美元汇率无序上升，其价值可能被高估了8-16%。</p>\n<p>其次，美联储将大量债务货币化破坏了全球货币市场体系，美元在国际支付、贸易和外汇储备中的地位下降。</p>\n<p>美国经常帐赤字、财政赤字以及国内储蓄不足的矛盾激化，可能会终结美元的“过度特权”。</p>\n<p>美联储大量印钞稀释了法定货币的购买力。</p>\n<p>……</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94cd812f427763064564a92f949cad11\" tg-width=\"1075\" tg-height=\"863\"></p>\n<p>空穴来风未必无因，市场上出现这么多不利信号，交易者必须引起足够重视。</p>\n<p><b>top6：美股崩盘</b></p>\n<p>影响力：☆☆☆☆</p>\n<p>可能性：☆☆☆☆</p>\n<p>受影响较大的市场：全球股市&gt;黄金&gt;美债&gt;全球汇市</p>\n<p>和美元危机一样，分析人士老早为股市崩盘写好了各种剧本。股市的畸形发展和泡沫膨胀，也无法掩盖这些问题：</p>\n<p>美国正处于历史上最严重的经济衰退之中。</p>\n<p>2000万正在享受的美国联邦失业福利，将于7月底到期。</p>\n<p>4月份，储蓄率飙升至33%，伴随而来的是通胀预期的大幅滑落。</p>\n<p>截至目前，美国政府未偿债务在今年增加了2.5万亿美元，赤字从5%翻了一倍达到10%，企业发债规模的增幅同样创下历史纪录。</p>\n<p>上述所有问题，都可以归结到一切一个具体的指标上——标普500指数预期利润率。急于抄底的多头看到美股预期利润出现如此夸张的跌幅，不知道还会不会如此乐观呢？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8788556cc87821662925d533774f9963\" tg-width=\"1087\" tg-height=\"844\"></p>\n<p><b>top7：债务危机</b></p>\n<p>影响力：☆☆☆</p>\n<p>可能性：☆☆☆☆</p>\n<p>受影响较大的市场：全球债市&gt;黄金&gt;美元&gt;全球股市</p>\n<p>和过去几轮债务危机不同，今年下半年可能爆发的危机将会席卷全球，无论发达国家还是新兴市场都无法幸免。</p>\n<p>一方面，穆迪6月底公布的报告显示，今年全球发达国家的债务水平将平均提高近20%，疫情的破坏力较金融危机高出近一倍。</p>\n<p>其中，根据美国国会预算办公室4月的估算，2020财年（今年9月份截至）美国政府预算赤字将翻两番至创纪录的3.7万亿美元，占GDP的17.9%。而另外两个发达国家法国和意大利，马上要面对即将到期的2969亿美元和2771亿美元债务。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cce25ca579b10916107466e8e5a17c72\" tg-width=\"1126\" tg-height=\"853\"></p>\n<p>另一方面，据金融时报报道，IMF将调动1万亿美元贷款支援新兴经济体度过难关。IMF提供的贷款虽然可以帮助新兴经济体暂时度过难关，但它们的债务负担也会空前加剧。阿根廷式违约事件，很可能在下半年频繁上演。</p>\n<p><b>top8：英欧贸易谈判破裂</b></p>\n<p>影响力；☆☆☆</p>\n<p>可能性：☆☆☆</p>\n<p>受影响较大的市场：全球汇市&gt;黄金&gt;欧洲股市</p>\n<p>留给英国和欧盟的谈判时间已经不多了，毕竟双方都已经多次强调不会延长脱欧过渡期。按照德国总理默克尔的说法，英欧双方最迟要在秋季之前讨论出一个结果，因为无论最终能否达成全新贸易协议，都需要给双方预留足够的准备时间。</p>\n<p>欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩日前表示，将为达成协议脱欧作出一切努力，但分歧依然无法弥合。另一边，英国似乎已经在寻找后路，近日相继加紧和日本、澳大利亚、新西兰等国商讨自由贸易协定。</p>\n<p>根据安排，英欧双方已在6月29日正式恢复谈判，约翰逊和冯德莱恩将亲自上阵面谈。7月份的密集会谈过后，有关脱欧贸易协议的种种疑团，相信都能找到答案。</p>\n<p><b>top9：地缘政治冲突爆发</b></p>\n<p>影响力：☆☆</p>\n<p>可能性：☆☆☆</p>\n<p>受影响较大的市场：黄金&gt; 全球股市&gt;其他</p>\n<p>下半年地缘政治的冲突，焦点依然集中在美伊关系上。本周，伊朗突然对包括美国总统特朗普在内的数十人发出逮捕令，将美伊两国的紧张关系再次推向舆论中心。随后，伊朗外长扎里夫和美国伊朗事务特别代表胡克针锋相对，相继发表抨击对方的言论，更加深了外界对美伊爆发下一轮冲突的担忧。</p>\n<p>此外，美欧关系近日也有恶化迹象。6月30日，欧盟宣布延长对美国居民的旅行禁令，欧盟贸易委员霍根在同一日表态，称要努力保护欧盟公司不受美国关裞的限制。两个全球最主要的经济体之间的纠纷，如果处理不好，完全有可能演变成一场全新的危机。</p>\n<p>02一条主线足以串联所有黑天鹅？</p>\n<p>在开始这部分讨论之前，大家首先要明确一件事：</p>\n<p>上半年很多政策的副作用，经过一段时间的发酵后，可能会滋生新的危机。比如各大央行和政府为抗击疫情而投入的大量资金会不会造成流动性过剩，或者股市与经济基本面脱节会不会让泡沫继续膨胀等等。</p>\n<p>我们来简单梳理一下上半年众多黑天鹅的发展脉络，就可以发现这些事件存在紧密联系：</p>\n<p>疫情爆发——全球经济接近停摆——美股暴跌、原油需求大幅减少——美联储第一次紧急降息救市——沙特和俄罗斯谈崩，油价战爆发进一步拖累全球市场——美元荒席卷全球，美联储祭出零利率+无限QE——市场流动性迅速被榨干，黄金市场出现点差过大等异常情况……</p>\n<p>而在下半年诸多潜藏的黑天鹅里，美国大选和美联储政策变动，足以产生撬动整个金融市场的巨大冲击力。</p>\n<p>一方面，投资者最关心的是，如果特朗普无法连任，其任内定下的一系列经济措施以及已提出但尚未落实的改革措施，都将被推翻。其中就包括特朗普任内一直大力支持的减税政策，以及前段时间刚刚提出的万亿基建计划。</p>\n<p>另一方面，如果美联储真的实行收益率曲线控制，将给市场带来全方位的影响。对此，我们得分几个角度来看：</p>\n<p>首先，收益率曲线控制的本质是为大规模的刺激计划提供资金，同时将政府借贷成本保持在较低水平，最大限度发挥刺激政策的作用。日本央行在2016年开始采取收益率曲线控制政策，此后数年成功通过更少的资产购买量维持了国债市场的稳定。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d8384deb6acdca7f4ab90f9884b442\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"719\"></p>\n<p>其次，收益率曲线控制也有一些无法改变的缺点。</p>\n<p>第一，加剧市场资产定价的扭曲。如果美联储想在经济已经彻底复苏的基础下逐步缩减购债规模，就必须立即取消收益率曲线控制，届时可能出现资本流动成倍增加、美债收益率无序上升或下滑。</p>\n<p>第二，容易受市场大环境影响。举个例子，如果经济复苏加速和通胀预期回升，投资者可能会怀疑美联储指定的收益率目标不合理，从而大举抛售美债。</p>\n<p>第三，开始容易结束难——日本央行就是一个最好的例子。而且一旦政府习惯了收益率曲线政策的庇护，财政部可能会不愿意失去这种特权。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb1c7c5ffb377a74390096ffeb97716\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"725\"></p>\n<p>换句话说，如果上述两大黑天鹅事件从猜想成为现实，就会引发蝴蝶效应。这又是一条可怕的传导路线：</p>\n<p>第二波疫情爆发导致经济再度停摆，特朗普选情告急——股汇债市率先暴动，迫使美联储再次出手干预——经济停止复苏打压原油需求，沙特、俄罗斯再现分歧——各国政府继续大量举债，央行疯狂印钞，债务负担空前加剧……</p>\n<p>03对抗黑天鹅的法宝有哪些？</p>\n<p>说了这么多，相信交易者除了关心下半年会出现哪些黑天鹅之外，一定也很想知道有什么办法可以安然度过难关。</p>\n<p>金十此前曾报道过，交易者日记用户猎户座通过总结自己的交易经验，得出了以下启示：</p>\n<p>①一波走势明显的行情在酝酿时，千万不要摸顶和猜底。</p>\n<p>②黑天鹅飞出后，资金面的推动力过于强大，其影响甚至盖过基本面。</p>\n<p>③如果黑天鹅的影响刚好和市场走势相符，行情极有可能突破新高，反之亦然。</p>\n<p>④综合分析市场突破高点或低点之后的趋势运行空间和时间，再结合基本面走势变化，可以判断行情何时终结。</p>\n<p>基本原则是这样没错，但具体到每个危机，每个不同的黑天鹅，交易逻辑都会有变化。正如上文所言，下半年的许多潜在危机，其实都是上半年的遗留问题。</p>\n<p>合适的投资组合，是度过危机的关键。从上半年的行情来看，本轮危机主要有以下特点：</p>\n<p>当黑天鹅出现时，风险资产波动率率先大幅上升，继而拖累其他市场。</p>\n<p>黑天鹅对经济基本面影响越大，黄金、外汇等市场的反应就越强烈，反倒是股市与经济基本面出现严重脱节。</p>\n<p>黑天鹅出现后，资产相关性和跨资产波动性显著上升（股债市场的联动效应最为明显）。</p>\n<p>根据上述特点来调整自己的投资组合，是战胜危机并靠黑天鹅获利的窍门。具体来说，可以归纳为以下几个要点：</p>\n<p>第一，不要过分信赖黄金，更不要完全忽视债券。</p>\n<p>黄金虽然是最热门的避险资产，但在股市崩盘期间市场流动性会被迅速榨干，对于体量相对来讲没有那么大的黄金市场来说，抛售风险会加剧。</p>\n<p>在交易者的投资组合里，美债是一个不能缺席的角色——无论收益率有多低，美债市场的流动性优势都是别的市场无法比拟的。此外，日元、投资及企业债等避险功能较强的资产，也可以适量增配。</p>\n<p>第二，黑天鹅的影响消退得差不多的时候，及时捉住股市的入场抄底时机。</p>\n<p>经验表明，受黑天鹅影响最大的市场在危机前期跌得有多可怕，危机过后的反弹速度就会有多惊人——一如当前的股市一样。</p>\n<p>第三，短线和长期投资者的资产配置策略有所不同，需要区别对待。</p>\n<p>长期投资者可以在危机末段进行资产配置再平衡操作，加大对高风险高收益资产的仓位配置，适当减少避险资产的仓位。短线投资者一般会更加激进，在危机尚未消退之时便增持高风险资产，务求捉住第一波反弹红利。</p>\n<p>第四，注重尾部风险管理。</p>\n<p>今年3月份，也就是市场最动荡的那段日子里，斯皮兹纳格尔创办的Universa Investments基金获得了3612%的投资回报率，成为行业神话。该基金最主要的成功秘诀，就是注重尾部风险管理。</p>\n<p>斯皮兹纳格尔认为，做好尾部风险管理的关键在于全面检测市场动态。除了宏观经济增长、实际利率、通胀等基本要素之外，资产波动率、相关性风险、流动性风险、行业压力测试、金融市场系统性风险等等都应该纳入考量。</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>前瞻“危机重重”的2020下半年</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n前瞻“危机重重”的2020下半年\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-07-01 21:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/61587><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>上半年活久见：美股四度熔断、石油价格战、负油价、美联储无限QE+零利率……同时也提醒了投资者，下半年市场依旧不平静，冲突、异象、危机这些关键词依旧适用。\n而通过观察市场一些容易被忽视的细枝节末，我们可以大胆假设，2020年接下去的日子里，市场还可能会发生这些意外。\n01下半年9大“黑天鹅”猜想\ntop1：第二波疫情爆发\n影响力：☆☆☆☆☆\n可能性：☆☆☆☆\n受影响较大的市场：黄金=全球股市>美元>...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/61587\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/61587","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175681725","content_text":"上半年活久见：美股四度熔断、石油价格战、负油价、美联储无限QE+零利率……同时也提醒了投资者，下半年市场依旧不平静，冲突、异象、危机这些关键词依旧适用。\n而通过观察市场一些容易被忽视的细枝节末，我们可以大胆假设，2020年接下去的日子里，市场还可能会发生这些意外。\n01下半年9大“黑天鹅”猜想\ntop1：第二波疫情爆发\n影响力：☆☆☆☆☆\n可能性：☆☆☆☆\n受影响较大的市场：黄金=全球股市>美元>全球债市\n部分国家的情况仍不容乐观，甚至有人担心第二波疫情会在今年秋季来袭。\n美国的情况，令人尤为担忧。近段时间已经有不少美国政经界人士表达过类似的担忧：\n美国得克萨斯州长：病毒正在以不可接受的速度传播。\n世卫组织卫生紧急项目负责人瑞安：发现美国多个州出现新冠肺炎病例的加速增长，多数新增病例为年轻人。\n同为重灾区的欧洲，也出现了一些不好的信号：\n世卫组织欧洲区域主任Hans Kluge：第二波疫情可能在秋天出现。\n人口密度极高的亚非拉地区，更是面临严峻挑战：\n韩国疾病控制和预防中心（KCDC）6月22日表示：韩国已出现第二波新冠肺炎疫情。\n日本东京都知事小池百合子：针对新冠病毒作出应对、为第二波疫情做好准备是最重要的。\ntop2：美国大选爆冷\n影响力：☆☆☆☆☆\n可能性：☆☆☆☆\n受影响较大的市场：黄金=美元>美股>美债\n上半年的诸多意外搅乱了美国总统特朗普备战大选的步伐，而支持率的大幅波动更是令其伤透脑筋。\n根据路透汤森的最新报告，近期多项民调显示，特朗普的支持率被民主党提名人拜登逐渐抛离，双方的差距已经扩大到13个百分点。这是路透汤森自今年民主党开始党内提名初选以来，进行的所有民调中，差距最大的一次调查。\ntop3：美联储祭出负利率or收益率曲线控制\n影响力：☆☆☆☆☆\n可能性：☆☆☆\n受影响较大的市场：美债>美元=美股>黄金\n先后推出零利率、无限QE以及一系列流动性工具后，美联储的家底快要被掏空。如果下半年再发生新的危机，怎么办？分析师们讨论得最多的，来来去去都是那两个措施：负利率或收益率曲线控制。\n富兰克林邓普顿投资公司在一份最新报告中指出，出于对第二波疫情和美国大选不确定性的担忧，美联储的官员们现在应该及早思考，下半年还能给经济提供何种援助。该公司分析师表示，考虑到负利率给金融部门带来的风险，美联储出台收益率曲线控制的可能性明显更大。报告指出，出台新政的节点可能是第三季度，原因如下：\n目前美国正在经历解禁后的经济反弹，但大选前夕若风险情绪上升可能造成美股、美债等市场的新一轮波动。这会给美联储带来新的压力，迫使其再度介入市场。\ntop4：欧佩克+减产联盟拆伙\n影响力：☆☆☆☆☆\n可能性：☆☆☆\n受影响较大的市场：原油>黄金>全球股市\n沙特和俄罗斯在近期的欧佩克+会议中表现得一团和气，现在就猜想两大巨头会不会再度关系破裂，似乎有些危言耸听？\n然而，裂痕一直没有消除。比如两国对油价的追求不同，对石油收入的依赖程度也不一样。金十此前曾分析过，需求下滑这个难题一天不解决，欧佩克+分裂的可能就会一直存在。\n沙特和俄罗斯的和谐关系能维持多久，关键就看两国还能承受多大的压力：\n一方面 ，沙特大量发展计划停摆，大量油气设施被闲置，产能被严重削弱。\n另一方面俄罗斯国内工业产出严重下滑，减产是罪魁祸首。\ntop5：美元危机\n影响力：☆☆☆☆☆\n可能性：☆☆☆\n受影响较大的市场：黄金、美债、全球股市和全球汇市都将遭受重大冲击\n美元崩盘说在今年上半年屡见不鲜，美指的明显回落也的确令人看到美元衰落的征兆。\n支撑这种说法的论点，主要有以下几个：\n根据IMF的说法，3月份的危机催生了美元荒现象，这导致美元汇率无序上升，其价值可能被高估了8-16%。\n其次，美联储将大量债务货币化破坏了全球货币市场体系，美元在国际支付、贸易和外汇储备中的地位下降。\n美国经常帐赤字、财政赤字以及国内储蓄不足的矛盾激化，可能会终结美元的“过度特权”。\n美联储大量印钞稀释了法定货币的购买力。\n……\n\n空穴来风未必无因，市场上出现这么多不利信号，交易者必须引起足够重视。\ntop6：美股崩盘\n影响力：☆☆☆☆\n可能性：☆☆☆☆\n受影响较大的市场：全球股市>黄金>美债>全球汇市\n和美元危机一样，分析人士老早为股市崩盘写好了各种剧本。股市的畸形发展和泡沫膨胀，也无法掩盖这些问题：\n美国正处于历史上最严重的经济衰退之中。\n2000万正在享受的美国联邦失业福利，将于7月底到期。\n4月份，储蓄率飙升至33%，伴随而来的是通胀预期的大幅滑落。\n截至目前，美国政府未偿债务在今年增加了2.5万亿美元，赤字从5%翻了一倍达到10%，企业发债规模的增幅同样创下历史纪录。\n上述所有问题，都可以归结到一切一个具体的指标上——标普500指数预期利润率。急于抄底的多头看到美股预期利润出现如此夸张的跌幅，不知道还会不会如此乐观呢？\n\ntop7：债务危机\n影响力：☆☆☆\n可能性：☆☆☆☆\n受影响较大的市场：全球债市>黄金>美元>全球股市\n和过去几轮债务危机不同，今年下半年可能爆发的危机将会席卷全球，无论发达国家还是新兴市场都无法幸免。\n一方面，穆迪6月底公布的报告显示，今年全球发达国家的债务水平将平均提高近20%，疫情的破坏力较金融危机高出近一倍。\n其中，根据美国国会预算办公室4月的估算，2020财年（今年9月份截至）美国政府预算赤字将翻两番至创纪录的3.7万亿美元，占GDP的17.9%。而另外两个发达国家法国和意大利，马上要面对即将到期的2969亿美元和2771亿美元债务。\n\n另一方面，据金融时报报道，IMF将调动1万亿美元贷款支援新兴经济体度过难关。IMF提供的贷款虽然可以帮助新兴经济体暂时度过难关，但它们的债务负担也会空前加剧。阿根廷式违约事件，很可能在下半年频繁上演。\ntop8：英欧贸易谈判破裂\n影响力；☆☆☆\n可能性：☆☆☆\n受影响较大的市场：全球汇市>黄金>欧洲股市\n留给英国和欧盟的谈判时间已经不多了，毕竟双方都已经多次强调不会延长脱欧过渡期。按照德国总理默克尔的说法，英欧双方最迟要在秋季之前讨论出一个结果，因为无论最终能否达成全新贸易协议，都需要给双方预留足够的准备时间。\n欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩日前表示，将为达成协议脱欧作出一切努力，但分歧依然无法弥合。另一边，英国似乎已经在寻找后路，近日相继加紧和日本、澳大利亚、新西兰等国商讨自由贸易协定。\n根据安排，英欧双方已在6月29日正式恢复谈判，约翰逊和冯德莱恩将亲自上阵面谈。7月份的密集会谈过后，有关脱欧贸易协议的种种疑团，相信都能找到答案。\ntop9：地缘政治冲突爆发\n影响力：☆☆\n可能性：☆☆☆\n受影响较大的市场：黄金> 全球股市>其他\n下半年地缘政治的冲突，焦点依然集中在美伊关系上。本周，伊朗突然对包括美国总统特朗普在内的数十人发出逮捕令，将美伊两国的紧张关系再次推向舆论中心。随后，伊朗外长扎里夫和美国伊朗事务特别代表胡克针锋相对，相继发表抨击对方的言论，更加深了外界对美伊爆发下一轮冲突的担忧。\n此外，美欧关系近日也有恶化迹象。6月30日，欧盟宣布延长对美国居民的旅行禁令，欧盟贸易委员霍根在同一日表态，称要努力保护欧盟公司不受美国关裞的限制。两个全球最主要的经济体之间的纠纷，如果处理不好，完全有可能演变成一场全新的危机。\n02一条主线足以串联所有黑天鹅？\n在开始这部分讨论之前，大家首先要明确一件事：\n上半年很多政策的副作用，经过一段时间的发酵后，可能会滋生新的危机。比如各大央行和政府为抗击疫情而投入的大量资金会不会造成流动性过剩，或者股市与经济基本面脱节会不会让泡沫继续膨胀等等。\n我们来简单梳理一下上半年众多黑天鹅的发展脉络，就可以发现这些事件存在紧密联系：\n疫情爆发——全球经济接近停摆——美股暴跌、原油需求大幅减少——美联储第一次紧急降息救市——沙特和俄罗斯谈崩，油价战爆发进一步拖累全球市场——美元荒席卷全球，美联储祭出零利率+无限QE——市场流动性迅速被榨干，黄金市场出现点差过大等异常情况……\n而在下半年诸多潜藏的黑天鹅里，美国大选和美联储政策变动，足以产生撬动整个金融市场的巨大冲击力。\n一方面，投资者最关心的是，如果特朗普无法连任，其任内定下的一系列经济措施以及已提出但尚未落实的改革措施，都将被推翻。其中就包括特朗普任内一直大力支持的减税政策，以及前段时间刚刚提出的万亿基建计划。\n另一方面，如果美联储真的实行收益率曲线控制，将给市场带来全方位的影响。对此，我们得分几个角度来看：\n首先，收益率曲线控制的本质是为大规模的刺激计划提供资金，同时将政府借贷成本保持在较低水平，最大限度发挥刺激政策的作用。日本央行在2016年开始采取收益率曲线控制政策，此后数年成功通过更少的资产购买量维持了国债市场的稳定。\n\n其次，收益率曲线控制也有一些无法改变的缺点。\n第一，加剧市场资产定价的扭曲。如果美联储想在经济已经彻底复苏的基础下逐步缩减购债规模，就必须立即取消收益率曲线控制，届时可能出现资本流动成倍增加、美债收益率无序上升或下滑。\n第二，容易受市场大环境影响。举个例子，如果经济复苏加速和通胀预期回升，投资者可能会怀疑美联储指定的收益率目标不合理，从而大举抛售美债。\n第三，开始容易结束难——日本央行就是一个最好的例子。而且一旦政府习惯了收益率曲线政策的庇护，财政部可能会不愿意失去这种特权。\n\n换句话说，如果上述两大黑天鹅事件从猜想成为现实，就会引发蝴蝶效应。这又是一条可怕的传导路线：\n第二波疫情爆发导致经济再度停摆，特朗普选情告急——股汇债市率先暴动，迫使美联储再次出手干预——经济停止复苏打压原油需求，沙特、俄罗斯再现分歧——各国政府继续大量举债，央行疯狂印钞，债务负担空前加剧……\n03对抗黑天鹅的法宝有哪些？\n说了这么多，相信交易者除了关心下半年会出现哪些黑天鹅之外，一定也很想知道有什么办法可以安然度过难关。\n金十此前曾报道过，交易者日记用户猎户座通过总结自己的交易经验，得出了以下启示：\n①一波走势明显的行情在酝酿时，千万不要摸顶和猜底。\n②黑天鹅飞出后，资金面的推动力过于强大，其影响甚至盖过基本面。\n③如果黑天鹅的影响刚好和市场走势相符，行情极有可能突破新高，反之亦然。\n④综合分析市场突破高点或低点之后的趋势运行空间和时间，再结合基本面走势变化，可以判断行情何时终结。\n基本原则是这样没错，但具体到每个危机，每个不同的黑天鹅，交易逻辑都会有变化。正如上文所言，下半年的许多潜在危机，其实都是上半年的遗留问题。\n合适的投资组合，是度过危机的关键。从上半年的行情来看，本轮危机主要有以下特点：\n当黑天鹅出现时，风险资产波动率率先大幅上升，继而拖累其他市场。\n黑天鹅对经济基本面影响越大，黄金、外汇等市场的反应就越强烈，反倒是股市与经济基本面出现严重脱节。\n黑天鹅出现后，资产相关性和跨资产波动性显著上升（股债市场的联动效应最为明显）。\n根据上述特点来调整自己的投资组合，是战胜危机并靠黑天鹅获利的窍门。具体来说，可以归纳为以下几个要点：\n第一，不要过分信赖黄金，更不要完全忽视债券。\n黄金虽然是最热门的避险资产，但在股市崩盘期间市场流动性会被迅速榨干，对于体量相对来讲没有那么大的黄金市场来说，抛售风险会加剧。\n在交易者的投资组合里，美债是一个不能缺席的角色——无论收益率有多低，美债市场的流动性优势都是别的市场无法比拟的。此外，日元、投资及企业债等避险功能较强的资产，也可以适量增配。\n第二，黑天鹅的影响消退得差不多的时候，及时捉住股市的入场抄底时机。\n经验表明，受黑天鹅影响最大的市场在危机前期跌得有多可怕，危机过后的反弹速度就会有多惊人——一如当前的股市一样。\n第三，短线和长期投资者的资产配置策略有所不同，需要区别对待。\n长期投资者可以在危机末段进行资产配置再平衡操作，加大对高风险高收益资产的仓位配置，适当减少避险资产的仓位。短线投资者一般会更加激进，在危机尚未消退之时便增持高风险资产，务求捉住第一波反弹红利。\n第四，注重尾部风险管理。\n今年3月份，也就是市场最动荡的那段日子里，斯皮兹纳格尔创办的Universa 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