123zj的个人主页 - 老虎社区

123zj

123zj

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IP属地：重庆

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6主题

0勋章

04-26 20:47

霍华德.马克思。阿尔弗德雷.阿德勒。

@小虎活动:【有奖活动】哪位投资大师的理念对你的投资决策影响最大？

02-02

$A50指数主连 2402(CNmain)$ 一次性跌1000点，就好了

01-23

靠，明明是机构跑了

刚刚，外围传出重磅利好！反攻号角即将吹响？

01-14

祝大家周末愉快，恭喜发财。

01-13

祝大家周末愉快，开心快乐

01-13

必须是买房

@小虎活动:【有奖活动】买房 or 炒股，哪个让你赚更多？

01-12

老虎，今年股价大涨，一起吃肉

01-11

今天如何看，朋友们。加油

01-10

老虎加油，今年股价大涨

01-10

迎接不一样的2024.加油吧

01-09

让我们一起迎接新的挑战

01-08

周一，让我们一起迎接股市的风暴吧

01-07

明天开盘，又是惊心动魄的一天

01-06

新年快乐哦，老虎加油

01-05

66666666666,新年快乐

01-04

每一天都期待又新的发现

01-03

苹果是否具备了抄底的价格

01-02

在老虎实现新年的梦想

01-01

新年快乐，在今年，完成进一步进阶

2023-12-31

老虎，最真诚的朋友，让我们彼此相约2024吧

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>","listText":"投资就如同在大海中航行，我们可能会面对风浪和挑战，也可能会发现宝藏和惊喜。在这个旅程中，投资大师们的智慧就像是一盏明灯，为我们指引方向。从沃伦·巴菲特的价值投资，到彼得·林奇的成长投资，再到本杰明·格雷厄姆的安全边际原则，每一位大师都有其独特的投资哲学和策略。今天小虎君邀请广大虎友分享哪位投资大师的理念对你的投资决策影响最大？你是如何将投资大师的理念应用到你个人的投资决策中的。是巴菲特的长期持有让你在波动中保持冷静？还是林奇的“买你所了解的”让你在选股时更加自信？又或是格雷厄姆的安全边际让你在风险控制上更加得心应手？【参与方式】转发本帖，艾特至少一位朋友，邀请他们一起参与讨论。评论区留言分享你遵循的投资大师的理念，并说明这些理念是如何影响你的投资决策的。可以是具体的投资案例，也可以是理念对你的投资心态产生的影响。【活动时间】2024年4月26日-2024年5月5日【活动奖品】所有参与评论的虎友都将获得5虎币，转发本帖并艾特你的朋友参与活动，可额外获得5虎币。🌟人气奖：评论区点赞数最高的虎友将获得老虎限量笔记本1个🍀幸运奖：我们还将从评论区随机选出一位幸运虎友，赠送一份老虎周边。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>","text":"投资就如同在大海中航行，我们可能会面对风浪和挑战，也可能会发现宝藏和惊喜。在这个旅程中，投资大师们的智慧就像是一盏明灯，为我们指引方向。从沃伦·巴菲特的价值投资，到彼得·林奇的成长投资，再到本杰明·格雷厄姆的安全边际原则，每一位大师都有其独特的投资哲学和策略。今天小虎君邀请广大虎友分享哪位投资大师的理念对你的投资决策影响最大？你是如何将投资大师的理念应用到你个人的投资决策中的。是巴菲特的长期持有让你在波动中保持冷静？还是林奇的“买你所了解的”让你在选股时更加自信？又或是格雷厄姆的安全边际让你在风险控制上更加得心应手？【参与方式】转发本帖，艾特至少一位朋友，邀请他们一起参与讨论。评论区留言分享你遵循的投资大师的理念，并说明这些理念是如何影响你的投资决策的。可以是具体的投资案例，也可以是理念对你的投资心态产生的影响。【活动时间】2024年4月26日-2024年5月5日【活动奖品】所有参与评论的虎友都将获得5虎币，转发本帖并艾特你的朋友参与活动，可额外获得5虎币。🌟人气奖：评论区点赞数最高的虎友将获得老虎限量笔记本1个🍀幸运奖：我们还将从评论区随机选出一位幸运虎友，赠送一份老虎周边。 $老虎证券(TIGR)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e4341b3ea04ccbbaeb7455323029132","width":"1024","height":"1024"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299327442571288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":269817725702264,"gmtCreate":1706881383746,"gmtModify":1706881384804,"author":{"id":"3547699770150320","authorId":"3547699770150320","name":"123zj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d60480f81869e946d981538294374245","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CNmain\">$A50指数主连 2402(CNmain)$&nbsp;</a>一次性跌1000点，就好了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CNmain\">$A50指数主连 2402(CNmain)$&nbsp;</a>一次性跌1000点，就好了","text":"$A50指数主连 2402(CNmain)$ 一次性跌1000点，就好了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/269817725702264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":266088453181576,"gmtCreate":1705981443131,"gmtModify":1705981445657,"author":{"id":"3547699770150320","authorId":"3547699770150320","name":"123zj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d60480f81869e946d981538294374245","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"靠，明明是机构跑了","listText":"靠，明明是机构跑了","text":"靠，明明是机构跑了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/266088453181576","repostId":"1182723380","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182723380","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1705979990,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182723380?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-01-23 11:19","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"刚刚，外围传出重磅利好！反攻号角即将吹响？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182723380","media":"券商中国","summary":"就在刚才，外围又传来A股的重磅消息！1月23日早间，A股市场一度重挫，但随后迎来反攻，各大指数迅速翻红，创业板指涨幅扩大至1%以上。但上述消息未获官方证实。昨天晚上，国务院常务会议指出，要采取“强有力的”措施稳定资本市场。大反攻刚刚，股市的大反攻来了！但亦是十点过后，恒生指数展开大反攻，涨幅快速扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。那么，究竟有何利好刺激？","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>就在刚才，外围又传来A股的重磅消息！</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1月23日早间，A股市场一度重挫，但随后迎来反攻，各大指数迅速翻红，创业板指涨幅扩大至1%以上。港股市场更是快速拉升，恒指涨幅扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。究竟有何利好刺激？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>据彭博社今早消息，目前，中国正在考虑采取一揽子措施来稳定股市，涉及的金额比较大。但上述消息未获官方证实。昨天晚上，国务院常务会议指出，要采取“强有力的”措施稳定资本市场。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">香港方面，香港特区行政长官李家超称，正密切留意股市波动情况，监管机构很谨慎留意变化，暂时认为市场运作有序，未见不寻常现象。那么，此次是否能够稳住市场？</p><p><strong>大反攻</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">刚刚，股市的大反攻来了！在早盘急速杀跌之后，十点过后，做多资金突然进场，上证指数翻红，早盘一度跌超1%；创业板指劲升2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300274\">阳光电源</a>大涨近8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300763\">锦浪科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300118\">东方日升</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300776\">帝尔激光</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300751\">迈为股份</a>等新能源权重股全线爆发。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88f92c248b4845e8ecbe0ffd317760d8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"479\"/></p><p> <strong>与此同时，港股市场亦集体大爆发。早上开盘，恒生指数高开0.52%，科技股领涨，恒生科技指数涨0.88%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨近2%。但亦是十点过后，恒生指数展开大反攻，涨幅快速扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。值得注意的是，北上资金突然一改常态，掉头做多，早上净买入超过20亿元。而A50期指亦是直线拉升。连人民币都被带动，快速升值。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff4525c88c2653bf5987a7530df0a57c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"366\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么，究竟有何利好刺激？彭博社今早传来的消息指出，中国考虑为稳定基金提供离岸资金，这些政策可能在近期出台，涉及金额可能比较大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最近两天，A股市场持续下行，沪深300指数本周跌至五年低点，中证1000昨天亦创出阶段新低。在这种背景之下，昨天召开的国务院常务会议指出，要进一步健全完善资本市场基础制度，更加注重投融资动态平衡，大力提升上市公司质量和投资价值，加大中长期资金入市力度，增强市场内在稳定性。要加强资本市场监管，对违法违规行为“零容忍”，打造规范透明的市场环境。要采取更加有力有效措施，着力稳市场、稳信心。要增强宏观政策取向一致性，加强政策工具创新和协调配合，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，促进资本市场平稳健康发展。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从估值来看，来自德邦证券的数据显示，截至2024年1月20日，A股总体PE（TTM）为15.51倍，2012年以来30%分位；创业板指PE（TTM）估值为25.28倍，2012年以来0%分位；从一致预期角度来看，全A总体PE（2023E）为14.66倍，总体PE（2024E）为12.39倍，分别为2012年以来28%、7%分位。目前A股估值水平处于历低位，港股的估值水平则更低，按理不至于跌成现在这样。</p><p><strong>市场能否企稳？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>估值如此之低，为何没人敢买？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601059\">信达证券</a>表示，以此前的市场为例，2012年底，上证综指的PE（TTM）比2008年的低点更低，但由于制造业投资持续下行，稳增长力度相比2008年底更小，所以投资者迟迟不敢大幅买入。因为之前的历次牛市大多由经济大幅回升驱动，而2013年—2015年的牛市，几乎是不依赖投资回升的，在此期间制造业投资依然还在持续下行。所以面临2012年底或2014年中的估值底，如果单纯关注经济数据，是很难想到未来牛市高度的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">每一次熊市，都会有很多宏大的担心，有些是错的，熊市会在错误逐渐证伪的情况下结束（比如2008年熊市）。有些宏大的担心是对的，但熊市依然会结束，因为股市估值会提前消化长期的担心，之后即使长期担心依然存在，股市可能会在完全不同的利多逻辑演绎下结束熊市。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">广发证券</a>对债务周期背景下的股市进行了研究。他们指出，债务周期下，海外股市大级别底部的形成有赖于企业/居民杠杆率的趋势回落。①泰国1994年—2002年：1997年经济泡沫达到高峰，股市直至2002年三季度在去杠杆较为充分后迎来大级别反转，2004年前后GDP增速才回到危机前峰值。②美国2007年-2009年金融危机：2007年四季度—2008年三季度居民/企业杠杆率陆续见顶回落，2009年一季度股市见底并开启大级别反转。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，债务风险的消化程度决定了市场底部坚实与否，大级别反转需要债务风险的显著出清：①日本二十世纪90年代前中期：前期债务风险出清缓慢，企业杠杆率直至1993年四季度才开始见顶回落，1990.9、1992.7、1995.6的股市底部都先后被突破；②德国1999年—2009年：2000年—2003年第一阶段去杠杆并不充分，2008年—2009年第二阶段债务风险显著消化，2009年一季度德国股市迎来大级别拐点。</p><p style=\"text-align: right;\"><br/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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11:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>就在刚才，外围又传来A股的重磅消息！</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1月23日早间，A股市场一度重挫，但随后迎来反攻，各大指数迅速翻红，创业板指涨幅扩大至1%以上。港股市场更是快速拉升，恒指涨幅扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。究竟有何利好刺激？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>据彭博社今早消息，目前，中国正在考虑采取一揽子措施来稳定股市，涉及的金额比较大。但上述消息未获官方证实。昨天晚上，国务院常务会议指出，要采取“强有力的”措施稳定资本市场。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">香港方面，香港特区行政长官李家超称，正密切留意股市波动情况，监管机构很谨慎留意变化，暂时认为市场运作有序，未见不寻常现象。那么，此次是否能够稳住市场？</p><p><strong>大反攻</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">刚刚，股市的大反攻来了！在早盘急速杀跌之后，十点过后，做多资金突然进场，上证指数翻红，早盘一度跌超1%；创业板指劲升2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300274\">阳光电源</a>大涨近8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300763\">锦浪科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300118\">东方日升</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300776\">帝尔激光</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300751\">迈为股份</a>等新能源权重股全线爆发。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88f92c248b4845e8ecbe0ffd317760d8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"479\"/></p><p> <strong>与此同时，港股市场亦集体大爆发。早上开盘，恒生指数高开0.52%，科技股领涨，恒生科技指数涨0.88%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨近2%。但亦是十点过后，恒生指数展开大反攻，涨幅快速扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。值得注意的是，北上资金突然一改常态，掉头做多，早上净买入超过20亿元。而A50期指亦是直线拉升。连人民币都被带动，快速升值。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff4525c88c2653bf5987a7530df0a57c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"366\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么，究竟有何利好刺激？彭博社今早传来的消息指出，中国考虑为稳定基金提供离岸资金，这些政策可能在近期出台，涉及金额可能比较大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最近两天，A股市场持续下行，沪深300指数本周跌至五年低点，中证1000昨天亦创出阶段新低。在这种背景之下，昨天召开的国务院常务会议指出，要进一步健全完善资本市场基础制度，更加注重投融资动态平衡，大力提升上市公司质量和投资价值，加大中长期资金入市力度，增强市场内在稳定性。要加强资本市场监管，对违法违规行为“零容忍”，打造规范透明的市场环境。要采取更加有力有效措施，着力稳市场、稳信心。要增强宏观政策取向一致性，加强政策工具创新和协调配合，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，促进资本市场平稳健康发展。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从估值来看，来自德邦证券的数据显示，截至2024年1月20日，A股总体PE（TTM）为15.51倍，2012年以来30%分位；创业板指PE（TTM）估值为25.28倍，2012年以来0%分位；从一致预期角度来看，全A总体PE（2023E）为14.66倍，总体PE（2024E）为12.39倍，分别为2012年以来28%、7%分位。目前A股估值水平处于历低位，港股的估值水平则更低，按理不至于跌成现在这样。</p><p><strong>市场能否企稳？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>估值如此之低，为何没人敢买？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601059\">信达证券</a>表示，以此前的市场为例，2012年底，上证综指的PE（TTM）比2008年的低点更低，但由于制造业投资持续下行，稳增长力度相比2008年底更小，所以投资者迟迟不敢大幅买入。因为之前的历次牛市大多由经济大幅回升驱动，而2013年—2015年的牛市，几乎是不依赖投资回升的，在此期间制造业投资依然还在持续下行。所以面临2012年底或2014年中的估值底，如果单纯关注经济数据，是很难想到未来牛市高度的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">每一次熊市，都会有很多宏大的担心，有些是错的，熊市会在错误逐渐证伪的情况下结束（比如2008年熊市）。有些宏大的担心是对的，但熊市依然会结束，因为股市估值会提前消化长期的担心，之后即使长期担心依然存在，股市可能会在完全不同的利多逻辑演绎下结束熊市。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">广发证券</a>对债务周期背景下的股市进行了研究。他们指出，债务周期下，海外股市大级别底部的形成有赖于企业/居民杠杆率的趋势回落。①泰国1994年—2002年：1997年经济泡沫达到高峰，股市直至2002年三季度在去杠杆较为充分后迎来大级别反转，2004年前后GDP增速才回到危机前峰值。②美国2007年-2009年金融危机：2007年四季度—2008年三季度居民/企业杠杆率陆续见顶回落，2009年一季度股市见底并开启大级别反转。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，债务风险的消化程度决定了市场底部坚实与否，大级别反转需要债务风险的显著出清：①日本二十世纪90年代前中期：前期债务风险出清缓慢，企业杠杆率直至1993年四季度才开始见顶回落，1990.9、1992.7、1995.6的股市底部都先后被突破；②德国1999年—2009年：2000年—2003年第一阶段去杠杆并不充分，2008年—2009年第二阶段债务风险显著消化，2009年一季度德国股市迎来大级别拐点。</p><p style=\"text-align: right;\"><br/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264deaae5d5fcaee3f3b1708dc19dfb2","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182723380","content_text":"就在刚才，外围又传来A股的重磅消息！1月23日早间，A股市场一度重挫，但随后迎来反攻，各大指数迅速翻红，创业板指涨幅扩大至1%以上。港股市场更是快速拉升，恒指涨幅扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。究竟有何利好刺激？据彭博社今早消息，目前，中国正在考虑采取一揽子措施来稳定股市，涉及的金额比较大。但上述消息未获官方证实。昨天晚上，国务院常务会议指出，要采取“强有力的”措施稳定资本市场。香港方面，香港特区行政长官李家超称，正密切留意股市波动情况，监管机构很谨慎留意变化，暂时认为市场运作有序，未见不寻常现象。那么，此次是否能够稳住市场？大反攻刚刚，股市的大反攻来了！在早盘急速杀跌之后，十点过后，做多资金突然进场，上证指数翻红，早盘一度跌超1%；创业板指劲升2%，阳光电源大涨近8%，锦浪科技、东方日升、帝尔激光、迈为股份等新能源权重股全线爆发。 与此同时，港股市场亦集体大爆发。早上开盘，恒生指数高开0.52%，科技股领涨，恒生科技指数涨0.88%，腾讯控股、阿里巴巴涨近2%。但亦是十点过后，恒生指数展开大反攻，涨幅快速扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。值得注意的是，北上资金突然一改常态，掉头做多，早上净买入超过20亿元。而A50期指亦是直线拉升。连人民币都被带动，快速升值。那么，究竟有何利好刺激？彭博社今早传来的消息指出，中国考虑为稳定基金提供离岸资金，这些政策可能在近期出台，涉及金额可能比较大。最近两天，A股市场持续下行，沪深300指数本周跌至五年低点，中证1000昨天亦创出阶段新低。在这种背景之下，昨天召开的国务院常务会议指出，要进一步健全完善资本市场基础制度，更加注重投融资动态平衡，大力提升上市公司质量和投资价值，加大中长期资金入市力度，增强市场内在稳定性。要加强资本市场监管，对违法违规行为“零容忍”，打造规范透明的市场环境。要采取更加有力有效措施，着力稳市场、稳信心。要增强宏观政策取向一致性，加强政策工具创新和协调配合，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，促进资本市场平稳健康发展。从估值来看，来自德邦证券的数据显示，截至2024年1月20日，A股总体PE（TTM）为15.51倍，2012年以来30%分位；创业板指PE（TTM）估值为25.28倍，2012年以来0%分位；从一致预期角度来看，全A总体PE（2023E）为14.66倍，总体PE（2024E）为12.39倍，分别为2012年以来28%、7%分位。目前A股估值水平处于历低位，港股的估值水平则更低，按理不至于跌成现在这样。市场能否企稳？估值如此之低，为何没人敢买？信达证券表示，以此前的市场为例，2012年底，上证综指的PE（TTM）比2008年的低点更低，但由于制造业投资持续下行，稳增长力度相比2008年底更小，所以投资者迟迟不敢大幅买入。因为之前的历次牛市大多由经济大幅回升驱动，而2013年—2015年的牛市，几乎是不依赖投资回升的，在此期间制造业投资依然还在持续下行。所以面临2012年底或2014年中的估值底，如果单纯关注经济数据，是很难想到未来牛市高度的。每一次熊市，都会有很多宏大的担心，有些是错的，熊市会在错误逐渐证伪的情况下结束（比如2008年熊市）。有些宏大的担心是对的，但熊市依然会结束，因为股市估值会提前消化长期的担心，之后即使长期担心依然存在，股市可能会在完全不同的利多逻辑演绎下结束熊市。广发证券对债务周期背景下的股市进行了研究。他们指出，债务周期下，海外股市大级别底部的形成有赖于企业/居民杠杆率的趋势回落。①泰国1994年—2002年：1997年经济泡沫达到高峰，股市直至2002年三季度在去杠杆较为充分后迎来大级别反转，2004年前后GDP增速才回到危机前峰值。②美国2007年-2009年金融危机：2007年四季度—2008年三季度居民/企业杠杆率陆续见顶回落，2009年一季度股市见底并开启大级别反转。此外，债务风险的消化程度决定了市场底部坚实与否，大级别反转需要债务风险的显著出清：①日本二十世纪90年代前中期：前期债务风险出清缓慢，企业杠杆率直至1993年四季度才开始见顶回落，1990.9、1992.7、1995.6的股市底部都先后被突破；②德国1999年—2009年：2000年—2003年第一阶段去杠杆并不充分，2008年—2009年第二阶段债务风险显著消化，2009年一季度德国股市迎来大级别拐点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":262796332875952,"gmtCreate":1705190585409,"gmtModify":1705190586878,"author":{"id":"3547699770150320","authorId":"3547699770150320","name":"123zj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d60480f81869e946d981538294374245","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"祝大家周末愉快，恭喜发财。","listText":"祝大家周末愉快，恭喜发财。","text":"祝大家周末愉快，恭喜发财。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/262796332875952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":262444237803520,"gmtCreate":1705104620709,"gmtModify":1705104623146,"author":{"id":"3547699770150320","authorId":"3547699770150320","name":"123zj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d60480f81869e946d981538294374245","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"祝大家周末愉快，开心快乐","listText":"祝大家周末愉快，开心快乐","text":"祝大家周末愉快，开心快乐","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/262444237803520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":262423333064896,"gmtCreate":1705099522237,"gmtModify":1705099523592,"author":{"id":"3547699770150320","authorId":"3547699770150320","name":"123zj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d60480f81869e946d981538294374245","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"必须是买房","listText":"必须是买房","text":"必须是买房","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/262423333064896","repostId":"262183720136704","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":262183720136704,"gmtCreate":1705037534146,"gmtModify":1705059002167,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44a4f89726b3f6319d06a0075bf9ff76","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"【有奖活动】买房 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15:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>香港金管局9月10日表示，港金管局和人民银行经协商和咨询两地相关监管当局及银行业界，制定了实施细则。本实施细则适用于参与跨境理财通业务的香港银行。</p>\n<p>香港银行须确保跨境理财通业务符合本指引有关投资者资格、开户安排、资金跨境汇划、额度管理、产品尽职审查、宣传及销售、管控及监督、员工知识及培训、投诉机制、彙报责任等范畴的规定。</p>\n<p>期望跨境理财通可为两地金融业界开闢更广阔的市场，同时便利跨境投资，为大湾区居民提供更多理财产品的选择，进一步促进人民币跨境流动和使用。香港金管局和人民银行会因应跨境理财通的运作情况，不时检讨和优化跨境理财通的安排。</p>\n<p>香港金管局：南向通总额度暂定为1500亿元人民币，每名投资者的个人额度为100万元人民币；北向通总额度暂定为1500亿元人民币，每名投资者的个人额度为100万元人民币。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e1ae3d0f75bebef8011736e9031acae","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157012907","content_text":"香港金管局9月10日表示，港金管局和人民银行经协商和咨询两地相关监管当局及银行业界，制定了实施细则。本实施细则适用于参与跨境理财通业务的香港银行。\n香港银行须确保跨境理财通业务符合本指引有关投资者资格、开户安排、资金跨境汇划、额度管理、产品尽职审查、宣传及销售、管控及监督、员工知识及培训、投诉机制、彙报责任等范畴的规定。\n期望跨境理财通可为两地金融业界开闢更广阔的市场，同时便利跨境投资，为大湾区居民提供更多理财产品的选择，进一步促进人民币跨境流动和使用。香港金管局和人民银行会因应跨境理财通的运作情况，不时检讨和优化跨境理财通的安排。\n香港金管局：南向通总额度暂定为1500亿元人民币，每名投资者的个人额度为100万元人民币；北向通总额度暂定为1500亿元人民币，每名投资者的个人额度为100万元人民币。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3468402209976693","authorId":"3468402209976693","name":"烦烦躁躁","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"为大湾区……","text":"为大湾区……","html":"为大湾区……"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":305152157,"gmtCreate":1604929586779,"gmtModify":1703835241923,"author":{"id":"3547699770150320","authorId":"3547699770150320","name":"123zj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d60480f81869e946d981538294374245","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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