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小宗小朋友

小宗小朋友

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IP属地：浙江

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小宗小朋友

2020-06-02

$跟谁学(GSX)$愿赌服输，无非就是觉得吃相太难看，仅此而已[呆住]

小宗小朋友

2020-05-28

$跟谁学(GSX)$无奖竞猜，今天会到几块？我猜28[开心]

小宗小朋友

2020-06-04

$跟谁学(GSX)$今天多头水军在哪里，出来工作了

小宗小朋友

2020-05-28

$跟谁学(GSX)$29，7.97万单😂

小宗小朋友

2020-05-23

$跟谁学(GSX)$这一波就很秀了，要不要补一点空仓[开心]

小宗小朋友

2020-04-27

$吉利德科学(GILD)$这个是特批瑞德西韦的新闻吗？

小宗小朋友

2020-06-01

$跟谁学(GSX)$做空池持续在变多，看来今天是拉定了[难过]

小宗小朋友

2020-07-02

$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$ 就是这样的

小宗小朋友

2020-06-08

$跟谁学(GSX)$点外卖了

小宗小朋友

2020-06-03

$跟谁学(GSX)$7.17开始所有的的put都涨了……这几个意思，机构买的？

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href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-07-24/doc-iivhuipn4898069.shtml><strong>21世纪经济报道</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题：疫苗还没来，配套玻璃瓶先不够用了？我们研究下药用玻璃生产到底难在哪7月21日，包括中国在内的全球三大新冠病毒疫苗项目同日公布新进展。随着全球疫情加剧、疫苗研发进展提速，各国也在积极采购疫苗。7月20日，辉瑞、BioNTech与英国政府签订3000万剂新冠疫苗的购买协议。7月22日，美国卫生与公众服务部（HHS）也和国防部、辉瑞和德国生物技术公司BioNTech同时官宣一项6亿剂疫苗的协议。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-07-24/doc-iivhuipn4898069.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e559c5a8390713a5a8d4b07a2667368d","relate_stocks":{"600529":"山东药玻","PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-07-24/doc-iivhuipn4898069.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2053714747","content_text":"原标题：疫苗还没来，配套玻璃瓶先不够用了？我们研究下药用玻璃生产到底难在哪7月21日，包括中国在内的全球三大新冠病毒疫苗项目同日公布新进展。随着全球疫情加剧、疫苗研发进展提速，各国也在积极采购疫苗。7月20日，辉瑞、BioNTech与英国政府签订3000万剂新冠疫苗的购买协议。7月22日，美国卫生与公众服务部（HHS）也和国防部、辉瑞和德国生物技术公司BioNTech同时官宣一项6亿剂疫苗的协议。但包括上海复旦大学附属华山医院感染科主任张文宏在内，多名专家都提出了对疫苗玻璃瓶产能的担忧。张文宏在接受采访时提到：新冠疫苗生产不仅要搞研发，还要考虑配套，疫苗玻璃瓶的产量比疫苗还困难，因为这得有足够的玻璃和生产厂家。一时间，药用玻璃产能能否满足疫苗市场，引发了广泛的关注。那么，我国药用玻璃市场的供给和需求状况又是怎样的呢？21新健康今天就来详细梳理一下。01我国药用玻璃生产现状7月22日，美国卫生与公众服务部（HHS）和国防部、辉瑞和德国生物技术公司BioNTech同时官宣一项高达6亿剂疫苗的协议。这是继7月20日，辉瑞、BioNTech与英国政府签下3000万剂新冠疫苗的订单之后，又一项与政府达成的购买协议。但在高额订单之外，疫苗产能乃至配套的药用玻璃等产能能否跟上，成为人们高度关注的问题。药用玻璃，是指专门用于药品包装的玻璃，一般指玻璃瓶罐及器皿。按玻璃材质，可分为钠钙玻璃和硼硅玻璃。药用玻璃常用于注射剂、输液药物、口服剂、保健品等包装。根据国金证券，近五年，我国药用玻璃市场规模整体呈上升趋势，2018年达219.4亿元，占医药包装行业20%左右。据了解，各种药用包装玻璃按照各项性能综合排序，由高到低依次为：中性硼硅玻璃、低硼硅玻璃、钠钙玻璃。中性硼硅玻璃（I类玻璃/一级耐水）是国际公认最好的药用包装材料：耐酸耐碱一级，抗急冷急热性强，化学稳定性、机械强度、抗冲击性都优于其他玻璃；与药液及血液长期接触不会有沉淀物析出或引起pH值变化，能有效保护药品和保健食品的化学性能。低硼硅玻璃热膨胀系数比中性硼硅玻璃热膨胀系数大，容易产生炸裂纹、破碎和玻璃屑；低硼硅玻璃中碱的析出量比中性硼硅玻璃多出一倍以上，容易产生脱片并与药物发生反应，降低药效，是造成注射剂中可见异物不合格及药效衰减、药品失效的主要原因之一。《中国药用玻璃包装深度调研与投资战略报告（2019版）》显示，我国药用玻璃制品目前以低硼硅玻璃和钠钙玻璃为主，因为中硼硅玻璃成本较高，中硼玻管的生产稳定性较难控制。而国外药用玻璃包装市场主要以中性硼硅玻璃和钠钙玻璃为主。近年来，国家食品药品监督管理总局、药品监督管理局涉及药用玻璃的药品安全和药用包装材料政策规定如下：资料来源：国家食品药品监督管理总局、药品监督管理局值得注意的是，2017版和2019版的注射剂一致性评价征求意见稿中，对于包装材质的要求从“不建议使用低硼硅玻璃和钠钙玻璃”改为“不得低于参比制剂”。这说明我国正逐步推动由钠钙玻璃与低硼硅玻璃向中硼硅玻璃转型。资料来源：国家食品药品监督管理总局、药品监督管理局但与此同时，我国药用玻璃供给层面却也呈现出行业集中度高，产品低端化、同质化的特征。药用玻璃包装行业市场化程度较高，细分领域众多，行业内存在较多小型企业（年产能5亿支以内）和非上市公司。21新健康记者在工商信息平台上搜索企业名或经营范围包含“药用玻璃”的企业，一共找到2581家符合条件的企业，进一步筛选找到62家股份制企业，分布在山东、广东、江苏和上海等地。注册资本在5000万元以上的企业仅找到153家，其余多为中小企业。根据光大证券，业内拥有窑炉的药用玻璃包装生产公司，主要依靠成本优势和质量优势来竞争，各公司的优势产品不同。窑炉建设投资生产成本较高，生产过程有相当技术难度和产品质量要求，行业进入壁垒较高。但是还有部分公司不建设窑炉，通过直接购买药用玻璃管配套相关设备来进行玻璃管加工生产，主要集中于江浙一带。后者投资较小，且由于管制玻璃容器工艺差异导致质量差异较大，产品质量良莠不齐。国内药用玻璃行业主要公司情况，资料来源：各公司官网及销售宣传册，光大证券从规模看，山东药玻和重庆正川（上市公司：正川股份）产能位居全国前列。山东药玻是国内药用玻璃行业龙头，模制瓶年产90多亿支（2016年销量25万吨），其中模制瓶抗生素瓶国内市场占有率近80%；产品远销海外，棕色瓶年产25亿支（2016年销量15万吨），全球市占率近30%。正川股份的管制瓶年产54亿支，在国内市占率近1/3，是国内药用玻璃管制瓶龙头。成都平原尼普洛、山东力诺和吉林尼普洛嘉恒等公司规模中上，主要生产各类管制瓶和安瓿瓶，药用年产能3万吨左右；山东阿华医疗器材前身为山东阿胶集团子公司，主要为阿胶集团提供对应的各类药物包装材料，其中药用玻璃为其主营业务之一。从生产产品看，国内中性硼硅玻璃需求较小，造成行业整体产品以低硼硅玻璃和钠钙玻璃为主，低端化且同质化程度较高。国内仅山东药玻拥有I类玻璃模制瓶生产技术，其他公司主要生产低硼硅玻璃制品，并通过购买中性硼硅玻璃管来加工生产I类药用玻璃产品。药用玻璃行业整体行业集中度较高，几家较大的生产企业占据了主要的市场份额；但产品以低硼硅和钠钙玻璃制品为主，产品差异小，行业竞争激烈。而山东药玻的生产规模、产品质量均处国内领先水平，且是国内唯一拥有高质量I类玻璃生产技术的企业。02药用玻璃市场的需求侧根据光大证券统计，主要药用玻璃产品（模制瓶、管制瓶、安瓿瓶）每年需求共约800亿支左右，其中模制瓶和管制瓶需求各约150亿支、安瓿瓶需求近400亿支。根据TheFreedoniaGroup,Inc.此前统计，亚太地区是医药包装需求增长速度最快的地区，中国市场则是最主要的推动力，预计2012~2018年我国的医药包装市场以年均11.5%的增速增长。国内药品的新剂型层出不穷，而与之相配套的药品包装材料跟进速度还比较慢，我国医药包装产业的市场空间广阔。光大证券研报指出，目前国内药用玻璃市场规模近100亿元，年均增长速度10%以上。药用玻璃包装应用有：注射剂包装、口服制剂包装、外用制剂包装和吸入剂包装四类。其中需求最大的为注射剂包装，包括液体针剂、粉针注射剂的包装；其次为口服制剂包装。药用玻璃包装广泛用于保健品和中药口服药，外用制剂和吸入剂则较少采用。从国内需求总量上看，近年来受医保控费和限抗等政策影响，国内医药制剂行业整体增长平稳，但药品收入占公立医院总收入比重逐渐降低。从中国卫健委统计年鉴数据看，近十年中，2011-2013年公立医院药品总收入增速较快，2014-2018年药品总收入基本保持平稳，截至2018年，公立医院药品总收入占医院总收入的28.7%，比2010年下降了约13个百分点。究其原因，可能是2011年以来国内开始医保控费（医保基金入不敷出），严格控制医保基金整体支出增速过快和压缩整体医疗费用，严控药品费用支出，致使医药收入占医院总收入放缓。从产品需求结构看，注射剂包装玻璃包装需求最大，而注射用药品占医药制造业终端的销售额的比重在65%左右。光大证券研究进一步指出，以国内重点公立医院的注射剂销售情况上看：2012至2016年注射剂整体复合增8.8%，但由于受“限抗”政策影响，增速低于其他剂型增长情况，占比有所下降。2016年注射剂销售额840.6亿元，同比增长9.6%，在医院的总体药品销售中占比64.3%持续位列第一，行业增速回暖。2014年之前，受国内医保控费和“限抗”政策影响，注射用药用玻璃包装需求有所下滑。自2014年来，药用玻璃包装下游需求注射剂药品销售情况回暖，增长逐渐趋于平稳，预计未来注射用药用玻璃包装需求亦稳定增长。从未来发展看，一方面，我国生物制剂市场发展速度快，这将加强对玻璃包装的需求。生物制剂是指用微生物（细菌、立克次体、病毒等）及其代谢产物有效抗原成分、动物毒素、人或动物的血液或组织等加工而成作为预防、治疗、诊断相应传染病或其他有关疾病的生物制品。根据Frost&Sullivan数据，2016年至2020年，全球生物制剂研发服务的年复合增长率为19.0%，达到200亿美元的市场规模。中国是全球生物研发外包服务行业增长最快的市场，随着密集的医改政策的不断推进，中国制药行业加快从仿制药到创新药转型，以及中国在国际上的成本竞争力，将催生中国市场对创新药研发外包的大量需求。预计2016年至2020年中国市场的年复合增长率为34.8%，增速远高于全球市场。另一方面，目前中国老龄化加速，棕色药用玻璃的需求会增加。全国老龄工作委员会预计到2020年，老年人口达到2.48亿，老龄化水平达到17.17%，其中80岁以上老年人口将达到3067万人；2025年，六十岁以上人口将达到3亿，成为超老年型国家。而据中国保健协会调查数据显示，老年人消费占保健品销售的比重达50%以上。根据欧睿咨询数据，2018年中国保健品行业市场规模达1627亿元，同比增长9.8%，预计18-23年复合年均增长率为9.10%。对比其他国家，欧美保健品市场起步早，现阶段发展成熟，消费者教育经过了很长的周期，消费者已步入看重品牌和产品的阶段。03两家药用玻璃上市企业分析（1）山东药玻1970年成立，2002年6月上交所主板A股上市，药用玻璃行业龙头企业。该公司目前是亚洲规模较大的药用玻璃包装制品和丁基胶塞系列产品生产基地。主要产品包括模制瓶、棕色瓶、丁基胶塞系列、管瓶、安瓿、铝塑盖塑料瓶系列等。2017年主导产品钠钙玻璃模制注射剂瓶年产70亿支，国内市场占有率达到80%以上；低硼硅玻璃管制注射剂瓶年产12亿支。低硼硅玻璃安瓿年产14亿支。纳钙玻璃日化瓶年产20亿支，钠钙玻璃输液瓶年产5亿支，钠钙玻璃食品瓶年产2亿支，低硼硅玻璃管年产2万吨，中硼硅玻璃模制瓶年产2亿支，蓝绿瓶年产2亿支，中硼硅玻璃管瓶年产2000万只，中硼硅玻璃安瓿6500万只。2019年公司营业总收入29.9亿元，研发费用1.269亿元，同比增加58.12%。公司优势主要体现在两方面：第一，山东药玻在模制瓶、棕色瓶具备绝对领先地位，模制瓶在国内市场占有率超80%，其中模抗瓶产能70余亿只；棕色瓶保守估计市占率超50%，产能30亿只，由于保健品及化妆品消费等需求旺盛，公司新增绵竹车间，补充10亿只产能。第二，公司在国内外积极布局，具备大客户基数。根据光大证券，其拥有超4000家客户，其中制药企业3000余家，有助于公司在未来的注射剂一致性评价中更快切入玻瓶的替换升级。风险点在于，注射剂一致性评价政策推进低于预期；中硼硅替换进度低于预期风险；产能释放低于预期；原料价格上行风险；国际竞争加剧风险。（2）正川股份1989年成立，2017年8月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