铁韭谨慎观望的个人主页 - 老虎社区

铁韭谨慎观望

铁韭谨慎观望

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：湖北

9关注

5粉丝

0主题

0勋章

铁韭谨慎观望

2020-04-27

$美国原油ETF(USO)$慢慢补到了50%仓位，接下来看明天的表现了。

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-07-23

$新东方(EDU)$纪念一下，今天把一年多以来赚的85%的利润归零了。

铁韭谨慎观望

2020-04-27

$美国原油ETF(USO)$[财迷] 坚信汽车能喝水就跑

铁韭谨慎观望

2020-11-17

$辉瑞(PFE)$为什么价格比昨天收盘价低，但是却显示是上涨的？

铁韭谨慎观望

2020-04-21

$WTI原油2005(CL2005)$请问大佬，负值买入怎么算？是不是-40的价位我买入，相当于账户多了40美元？这不可思议啊

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-12-20

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$阿里巴巴会变成下一个中石油，立贴为证。

铁韭谨慎观望

2020-04-20

$WTI原油2005(CL2005)$[衰]5月份的合约最低跌到11元，和6月的差了11美元，有现货的可以低吸5月合约，然后展期再套现，我这种新手都知道的方法肯定是哪个环节有问题的？高手教一下

铁韭谨慎观望

2020-04-20

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$昨天收盘是18，今天怎么变成23了？新韭菜求助

铁韭谨慎观望

2020-04-23

$美国原油ETF(USO)$想择时、择机、择股调仓的业绩从来都没有一直持股不动的好，以为自己聪明，其实最后是最傻的

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-09-17

$高途(GOTU)$建议高途与新东方换股吸收合并，整合业务，取长补短。

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-09-17

$新东方(EDU)$建议新东方换股吸收合并高途，整合业务，取长补短。

铁韭谨慎观望

2020-10-10

$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 不想说什么，只是来露一个我的名字

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-07-22

$滴滴(DIDI)$看到有这么多打算长期持有的，那么应该肯定还会跌

铁韭谨慎观望

2020-05-08

只要还有利空消息，就会继续涨，直到大家一致不敢看空

非农数据已失真，美国经济面临一个“L”型的未来

铁韭谨慎观望

2020-04-27

$美国原油ETF(USO)$[捂脸] 后天价格上15元以上，没上我直播吃翔

铁韭谨慎观望

2020-04-23

$美国原油ETF(USO)$这只etf是满仓的吗？

铁韭谨慎观望

2020-12-04

那么肯定还能继续涨

“华尔街最准确预言家”：大多数人忽略了美股这个风险

铁韭谨慎观望

2020-06-13

$道琼斯(.DJI)$大家有没有遇到这样的bug：以50元挂了买单，后来点撤销一直显示待撤销，这时再以低于50元的价格挂卖单，系统提示与待撤销的买单存在冲突，卖单无效。也就是我卖不出去了

铁韭谨慎观望

2020-06-05

$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$ 尾盘了请开始你的拉升表演

铁韭谨慎观望

2022-01-03

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$可以开始谨慎抄底了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":3547155938177908,"uuid":"3547155938177908","gmtCreate":1584067676072,"gmtModify":1605606569623,"name":"铁韭谨慎观望","pinyin":"tjjsgwtiejiujinshenguanwang","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":5,"headSize":9,"tweetSize":41,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-3","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"偶像虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.04.22","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"02aa7f16703b4ce4ace6f1a7665789cc-1","templateUuid":"02aa7f16703b4ce4ace6f1a7665789cc","name":"知识体验官","description":"观看学堂课程满5节","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb5ae275631fb96a92d475cdc85d2302","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2660a1935bd2105e97c9915619936c3","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.05","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.23","exceedPercentage":"93.25%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.06%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":6,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"湖北","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":692760096,"gmtCreate":1641220994928,"gmtModify":1641220994928,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>可以开始谨慎抄底了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>可以开始谨慎抄底了","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$可以开始谨慎抄底了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692760096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693686080,"gmtCreate":1640013389546,"gmtModify":1640013389546,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>阿里巴巴会变成下一个中石油，立贴为证。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>阿里巴巴会变成下一个中石油，立贴为证。","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$阿里巴巴会变成下一个中石油，立贴为证。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693686080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3598,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3586226648271295","authorId":"3586226648271295","name":"小核桃123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b970668b7487de6f0ffcea301dfddbe6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"错，中石油再怎么着也不会倒，阿里说倒就倒了","text":"错，中石油再怎么着也不会倒，阿里说倒就倒了","html":"错，中石油再怎么着也不会倒，阿里说倒就倒了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607456368,"gmtCreate":1639580692854,"gmtModify":1639580692854,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>看跌到发行价65美元","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>看跌到发行价65美元","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$看跌到发行价65美元","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607456368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608997810,"gmtCreate":1638591451078,"gmtModify":1638591451078,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"中国人的创意搞不了内容，你信不信？","listText":"中国人的创意搞不了内容，你信不信？","text":"中国人的创意搞不了内容，你信不信？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608997810","repostId":"1165831342","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1165831342","pubTimestamp":1638530026,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1165831342?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 19:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"内容！爱奇艺的“救命稻草”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165831342","media":"博望财经","summary":"近日，市场传出消息，爱奇艺将进行史上最大规模裁员，本轮裁员罕见覆盖了爱奇艺所有部门，从影业、IP、游戏、电商部门，甚至到经纪公司，预计离职人数将超过2000人。按2020年爱奇艺财报上显示的7721名","content":"<p>近日，市场传出消息，爱奇艺将进行史上最大规模裁员，本轮裁员罕见覆盖了爱奇艺所有部门，从影业、IP、游戏、电商部门，甚至到经纪公司，预计离职人数将超过2000人。按2020年爱奇艺财报上显示的7721名雇员数计算，本次裁员幅度超过了总员工人数的四分之一。</p>\n<p>或许这与爱奇艺惨淡的业绩表现不无关系。不久前公布的三季报显示，爱奇艺Q3总营收75.89亿元，环比下降0.3%，低于预期；毛利润5.61亿元，毛利率7.4%，同比下降4.1pct，环比下降2.3pct；归母净亏损17.3亿元，同比扩大47.3%。</p>\n<p>爱奇艺的收入构成主要分为付费会员收入、广告收入、版权分销收入和其他收入，其中，付费会员收入自2019年Q3起在总收入占比超过50%后，至今为止一直是爱奇艺营收中最重要的蛋糕。</p>\n<p>01&nbsp;爱奇艺之困，困在内容成本高企</p>\n<p>付费会员业务与内容成本之间，有一道微妙关系，决定了爱奇艺的成败。我们详细分析：</p>\n<p>企业的亏损，通常和成本高企有很大关联。财报显示，爱奇艺的营业成本非常高，其Q3总营业成本70.28亿元，同比增长10%，其中内容成本53亿元，同比上升12.8%；内容成本占比同比上升4.4%，至69.8%。</p>\n<p>内容成本高，主要是因为爱奇艺在原创内容的投资加码。目前，爱奇艺已经搭建了超过70个原创内容工作室，专注多元化题材的内容布局。即便如此，但好的内容还是缺。这种缺表现在两个方面：</p>\n<p>一个是排片、审核等原因导致的内容供应不足。在爱奇艺Q3财报发布后的电话会议里，创始人兼CEO龚宇说得非常直白：“我们这个行业遇到的最大的问题在于内容供应出现严重短缺，原因是多方面的。第一个，疫情是最直接的原因，到现在为止，我们目前的电影上线量不如2019年同期的一半，而传统的电视剧比例更少，可能也就只有往年的三分之一左右，面对年轻人的新的网剧，因为审核的原因延迟上线。当然，这只是问题的一部分，内容的供给出现了比较大的问题，这是一个核心问题。”</p>\n<p>第二是“爆款”断货。今年爱奇艺独播的电视剧中，热度最高的都出现在上半年，分别是《赘婿》《爱上特种兵》和《小舍得》。今年下半年截至目前，爱奇艺上电视剧还没有出现“爆款”。此前爱奇艺的爆款剧，来自于下去年二季度推出的“迷雾剧场”，该栏目曾播出《隐秘的角落》《沉默的真相》等受到全网热议的剧集，其中《隐秘的角落》的播放量超过10亿，而通常爆款剧集的集均播放量约1亿左右。</p>\n<p>今年“迷雾剧场”共播出三部剧，《八角亭迷雾》《再见、那一天》和《致命愿望》，没有一个成为“爆款”。其中《八角亭迷雾》表现相对较好，但集均播放量仅不到4000万。更残忍的现实是，爱奇艺这类长视频网站投资一部电视剧的风险很高，如果反响不及预期，就相当于打水漂了。</p>\n<p>缺乏好的内容，用户付费意愿就不高。当内容供应无法满足人民群众日益增长的精神文化需要时，就会出现“内容成本高企与付费会员收入不对等”的情况，形成恶性循环。来看一组数据：</p>\n<p>2018年，爱奇艺的内容成本211亿元，会员收入106.23亿元；</p>\n<p>2019年，爱奇艺的内容成本222亿元，会员收入144.36亿元；</p>\n<p>2020年，爱奇艺的内容成本209亿元，会员收入164.91亿元……</p>\n<p>看到这组数据，解决问题的思路自然落在怎么在提高付费会员收入上，这也就不难理解爱奇艺此前的“蜜汁操作”——付费超前点播了。2019年，爱奇艺联合腾讯在热播剧《庆余年》中推出“超前点播”服务。开通超前点播的用户可以提前看6集，会员可以每集3元的价格购买该内容，即用户购买爱奇艺会员后，还需要再单独花钱购买剧集。</p>\n<p>通过超前点播尝到甜头的爱奇艺，将这一收费模式应用到了全平台。这在短时间内有效提升了爱奇艺的收入，但却遭到网友们尤其是会员们的“口诛笔伐”。</p>\n<p>今年10月，爱奇艺不得不宣布取消长达两年的“超前点播”，薅用户二次羊毛的“歪招”戛然而止。那如何正确破解会员收费的难题呢？</p>\n<p>02&nbsp;解决爱奇艺之困，唯有聚焦内容质量</p>\n<p>要想保持付费会员的不断增长、会员付费有意愿，&nbsp;必须不断投入内容成本，用高质量内容去留住用户。这点上，爱奇艺的对标典范——美国奈飞公司（Netflix）十分出色。</p>\n<p>奈飞盈利模式为付费会员的增长带动公司收入增长，收入增长为公司提供更多的资金购买电视剧和电影内容，同时也提供更多的客户数据和资金以拍摄内容优质的原创作品，进而吸引更多的付费会员，形成正向循环。上市至今，奈飞股价已提升465倍。</p>\n<p>也许有人会说，爱奇艺在自制剧、综艺、VR等领域都有很好的表现，对内容的重视有目共睹。但对比老大哥奈飞，还是差了一大截。</p>\n<p>提起奈飞，人们的印象往往是“奈飞出品，必属精品”。《纸牌屋》、《毒枭》、《鱿鱼游戏》……一系列世界级爆款剧，都来自于奈飞。</p>\n<p>2019 年，奈飞在北美地区平均付费用户6662 万人，订阅用户渗透率约20%；剔除试用用户，奈飞平台用户付费率接近100%（同年爱奇艺用户付费率仅为约22%）。2020年财报显示，其99%的营收来自会员付费服务。</p>\n<p>和奈飞的用户费用相比，无论从会员数量还是会员价格，爱奇艺都还有许多提升空间。2011 年奈飞首次涨价使得用户短期内流失80万，但收入大幅增长63%。</p>\n<p>参考奈飞历次提价后会员数量变动情况可以发现，如果能长期持续输出优质内容，提高用户的付费意愿，不仅订阅服务渗透率将得以提升，用户和会员忠诚度也会相对上涨。会员留存率及会员收入业务取得增长后，新增盈利将反哺于内容制作与IP 发掘中，进一步增加爆款产生的可能性，形成良性循环，最终形成“用户-营收-内容-用户”正向增长齿轮。</p>\n<p>因此，如果爱奇艺要从走出亏损泥沼，必须提升付费会员收入；而提升会员收入，唯一的底气就是有大量高品质内容。</p>\n<p>结尾</p>\n<p>在爱奇艺Q3财报发布后的电话会议上，龚宇表示：“目前爱奇艺的重点工作是减少亏损，控制成本，其实就是开源节流，把那些低效率的业务砍掉，把低效率的作品砍掉，找各种各样的货币化机会，增加收入。”如果裁员是为了把内部资源的重新高效分配，集中优势力量死磕内容质量，或许裁员对爱奇艺来说并非坏事。</p>","source":"lsy1599487363437","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>内容！爱奇艺的“救命稻草”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n内容！爱奇艺的“救命稻草”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-03 19:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Kk4nnTPVEhuvRQDxpQBdbQ><strong>博望财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日，市场传出消息，爱奇艺将进行史上最大规模裁员，本轮裁员罕见覆盖了爱奇艺所有部门，从影业、IP、游戏、电商部门，甚至到经纪公司，预计离职人数将超过2000人。按2020年爱奇艺财报上显示的7721名雇员数计算，本次裁员幅度超过了总员工人数的四分之一。\n或许这与爱奇艺惨淡的业绩表现不无关系。不久前公布的三季报显示，爱奇艺Q3总营收75.89亿元，环比下降0.3%，低于预期；毛利润5.61亿元，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Kk4nnTPVEhuvRQDxpQBdbQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48fbc541b07547e95dfb5b1221fb6ed","relate_stocks":{"IQ":"爱奇艺"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Kk4nnTPVEhuvRQDxpQBdbQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165831342","content_text":"近日，市场传出消息，爱奇艺将进行史上最大规模裁员，本轮裁员罕见覆盖了爱奇艺所有部门，从影业、IP、游戏、电商部门，甚至到经纪公司，预计离职人数将超过2000人。按2020年爱奇艺财报上显示的7721名雇员数计算，本次裁员幅度超过了总员工人数的四分之一。\n或许这与爱奇艺惨淡的业绩表现不无关系。不久前公布的三季报显示，爱奇艺Q3总营收75.89亿元，环比下降0.3%，低于预期；毛利润5.61亿元，毛利率7.4%，同比下降4.1pct，环比下降2.3pct；归母净亏损17.3亿元，同比扩大47.3%。\n爱奇艺的收入构成主要分为付费会员收入、广告收入、版权分销收入和其他收入，其中，付费会员收入自2019年Q3起在总收入占比超过50%后，至今为止一直是爱奇艺营收中最重要的蛋糕。\n01 爱奇艺之困，困在内容成本高企\n付费会员业务与内容成本之间，有一道微妙关系，决定了爱奇艺的成败。我们详细分析：\n企业的亏损，通常和成本高企有很大关联。财报显示，爱奇艺的营业成本非常高，其Q3总营业成本70.28亿元，同比增长10%，其中内容成本53亿元，同比上升12.8%；内容成本占比同比上升4.4%，至69.8%。\n内容成本高，主要是因为爱奇艺在原创内容的投资加码。目前，爱奇艺已经搭建了超过70个原创内容工作室，专注多元化题材的内容布局。即便如此，但好的内容还是缺。这种缺表现在两个方面：\n一个是排片、审核等原因导致的内容供应不足。在爱奇艺Q3财报发布后的电话会议里，创始人兼CEO龚宇说得非常直白：“我们这个行业遇到的最大的问题在于内容供应出现严重短缺，原因是多方面的。第一个，疫情是最直接的原因，到现在为止，我们目前的电影上线量不如2019年同期的一半，而传统的电视剧比例更少，可能也就只有往年的三分之一左右，面对年轻人的新的网剧，因为审核的原因延迟上线。当然，这只是问题的一部分，内容的供给出现了比较大的问题，这是一个核心问题。”\n第二是“爆款”断货。今年爱奇艺独播的电视剧中，热度最高的都出现在上半年，分别是《赘婿》《爱上特种兵》和《小舍得》。今年下半年截至目前，爱奇艺上电视剧还没有出现“爆款”。此前爱奇艺的爆款剧，来自于下去年二季度推出的“迷雾剧场”，该栏目曾播出《隐秘的角落》《沉默的真相》等受到全网热议的剧集，其中《隐秘的角落》的播放量超过10亿，而通常爆款剧集的集均播放量约1亿左右。\n今年“迷雾剧场”共播出三部剧，《八角亭迷雾》《再见、那一天》和《致命愿望》，没有一个成为“爆款”。其中《八角亭迷雾》表现相对较好，但集均播放量仅不到4000万。更残忍的现实是，爱奇艺这类长视频网站投资一部电视剧的风险很高，如果反响不及预期，就相当于打水漂了。\n缺乏好的内容，用户付费意愿就不高。当内容供应无法满足人民群众日益增长的精神文化需要时，就会出现“内容成本高企与付费会员收入不对等”的情况，形成恶性循环。来看一组数据：\n2018年，爱奇艺的内容成本211亿元，会员收入106.23亿元；\n2019年，爱奇艺的内容成本222亿元，会员收入144.36亿元；\n2020年，爱奇艺的内容成本209亿元，会员收入164.91亿元……\n看到这组数据，解决问题的思路自然落在怎么在提高付费会员收入上，这也就不难理解爱奇艺此前的“蜜汁操作”——付费超前点播了。2019年，爱奇艺联合腾讯在热播剧《庆余年》中推出“超前点播”服务。开通超前点播的用户可以提前看6集，会员可以每集3元的价格购买该内容，即用户购买爱奇艺会员后，还需要再单独花钱购买剧集。\n通过超前点播尝到甜头的爱奇艺，将这一收费模式应用到了全平台。这在短时间内有效提升了爱奇艺的收入，但却遭到网友们尤其是会员们的“口诛笔伐”。\n今年10月，爱奇艺不得不宣布取消长达两年的“超前点播”，薅用户二次羊毛的“歪招”戛然而止。那如何正确破解会员收费的难题呢？\n02 解决爱奇艺之困，唯有聚焦内容质量\n要想保持付费会员的不断增长、会员付费有意愿， 必须不断投入内容成本，用高质量内容去留住用户。这点上，爱奇艺的对标典范——美国奈飞公司（Netflix）十分出色。\n奈飞盈利模式为付费会员的增长带动公司收入增长，收入增长为公司提供更多的资金购买电视剧和电影内容，同时也提供更多的客户数据和资金以拍摄内容优质的原创作品，进而吸引更多的付费会员，形成正向循环。上市至今，奈飞股价已提升465倍。\n也许有人会说，爱奇艺在自制剧、综艺、VR等领域都有很好的表现，对内容的重视有目共睹。但对比老大哥奈飞，还是差了一大截。\n提起奈飞，人们的印象往往是“奈飞出品，必属精品”。《纸牌屋》、《毒枭》、《鱿鱼游戏》……一系列世界级爆款剧，都来自于奈飞。\n2019 年，奈飞在北美地区平均付费用户6662 万人，订阅用户渗透率约20%；剔除试用用户，奈飞平台用户付费率接近100%（同年爱奇艺用户付费率仅为约22%）。2020年财报显示，其99%的营收来自会员付费服务。\n和奈飞的用户费用相比，无论从会员数量还是会员价格，爱奇艺都还有许多提升空间。2011 年奈飞首次涨价使得用户短期内流失80万，但收入大幅增长63%。\n参考奈飞历次提价后会员数量变动情况可以发现，如果能长期持续输出优质内容，提高用户的付费意愿，不仅订阅服务渗透率将得以提升，用户和会员忠诚度也会相对上涨。会员留存率及会员收入业务取得增长后，新增盈利将反哺于内容制作与IP 发掘中，进一步增加爆款产生的可能性，形成良性循环，最终形成“用户-营收-内容-用户”正向增长齿轮。\n因此，如果爱奇艺要从走出亏损泥沼，必须提升付费会员收入；而提升会员收入，唯一的底气就是有大量高品质内容。\n结尾\n在爱奇艺Q3财报发布后的电话会议上，龚宇表示：“目前爱奇艺的重点工作是减少亏损，控制成本，其实就是开源节流，把那些低效率的业务砍掉，把低效率的作品砍掉，找各种各样的货币化机会，增加收入。”如果裁员是为了把内部资源的重新高效分配，集中优势力量死磕内容质量，或许裁员对爱奇艺来说并非坏事。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863290413,"gmtCreate":1632393841932,"gmtModify":1632393841932,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"打水飘","listText":"打水飘","text":"打水飘","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863290413","repostId":"2169664448","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2169664448","pubTimestamp":1632391800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2169664448?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-23 18:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR (NYSE: BABA) Participates In A $300 Million Funding Round To Boost Deeproute.ai","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2169664448","media":"StreetInsider","summary":"Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR (NYSE: BABA) has channeled funds into a  $300 million funding round ","content":"<html><body><div>\n<img height=\"427\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://www.wallstreetpr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Alibaba.jpg\" srcset=\"https://www.wallstreetpr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Alibaba.jpg 960w, https://www.wallstreetpr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Alibaba-300x200.jpg 300w, https://www.wallstreetpr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Alibaba-768x512.jpg 768w\" width=\"640\"/><p><b>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR (NYSE: BABA)</b><span> has channeled funds into a  $300 million funding round to support DeepRoute.ai., an autonomous driving start-up in China. The Shenzhen-based start-up has over the years focused on the development of self-driving systems, and it wishes to take its game a notch higher. It has also been operating a  fleet of autonomous taxis and has been fetching high revenues from the deal. </span></p><p><b>China's technology leaders increased participation</b></p><p><span>Alibaba's decision to get involved in the funding round marks the determination of China's technology leaders to gain a foothold in the driverless cars segment. It is important to note that the company is already <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the top investors in  AutoX, which happens to be another Chinese autonomous driving car start-up.</span></p><p><span>The company reveals it has a logistics arm known as Cainiao and plans to make self-driving trucks. </span></p><p><span>The  CEO of DeepRoute.ai, Maxwell Zhou, discloses that a large chunk of the money will move to technological advancement. It will use the remaining amount to increase its fleet size. He also claims that they have plans underway to expand the workforce.</span></p><p><b>Revenue sources</b></p><p><span>DeepRoute.ai sources its revenues in different ways, one of those being charging passengers that choose its robotaxi service. The other way has been the sharing of revenue with the ride-hailing firm. In addition, some automakers rely on its autonomous driving system, and it can thus choose to demand a one-time fee as part of its revenue-generating activities. It could also ask for an annual service fee.</span></p><p><span>The competitiveness in China's autonomous driving industry continues to grow wildly, according to reports. For example, ride-hailing app Didi and the Chinese internet giant Baidu have been at the frontline of investing in autonomous driving. There are also others investing in the same space, and those are  WeRide and Pony.ai. All these investors hope to fetch high revenues that will be used in their business expansion.</span></p><p>Please make sure to read and completely understand our disclaimer at https://www.wallstreetpr.com/disclaimer. We may be compensated for posting this content on our website by EDM Media LLC. For questions, comments or suggestions please contact ir@edm.media.</p><p>The post Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR (NYSE: BABA) Participates In A $300 Million Funding Round To Boost Deeproute.ai appeared first on Wall Street PR.</p>\n<img height=\"1\" src=\"https://prt.comtex.com/prt.php?ContentID=393864795&amp;SourceID=2771&amp;EndPointID=4131&amp;DateTime=2021-09-23T06:06:25&amp;Headline=Alibaba%20Group%20Holding%20Ltd%20-%20ADR%20(NYSE:%20BABA)%20Participates%20In%20A%20$300%20Million%20Funding%20Round%20To%20Boost%20Deeproute.ai\" width=\"865\"/><p>COMTEX_393864795/2771/2021-09-23T06:06:25</p> </div></body></html>","source":"highlight_streetinsider","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR (NYSE: BABA) Participates In A $300 Million Funding Round To Boost Deeproute.ai</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR (NYSE: BABA) Participates In A $300 Million Funding Round To Boost Deeproute.ai\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-23 18:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18972541><strong>StreetInsider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR (NYSE: BABA) has channeled funds into a  $300 million funding round to support DeepRoute.ai., an autonomous driving start-up in China. The Shenzhen-based start-up has ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18972541\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","09988":"阿里巴巴-SW"},"source_url":"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18972541","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2169664448","content_text":"Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR (NYSE: BABA) has channeled funds into a  $300 million funding round to support DeepRoute.ai., an autonomous driving start-up in China. The Shenzhen-based start-up has over the years focused on the development of self-driving systems, and it wishes to take its game a notch higher. It has also been operating a  fleet of autonomous taxis and has been fetching high revenues from the deal. China's technology leaders increased participationAlibaba's decision to get involved in the funding round marks the determination of China's technology leaders to gain a foothold in the driverless cars segment. It is important to note that the company is already one of the top investors in  AutoX, which happens to be another Chinese autonomous driving car start-up.The company reveals it has a logistics arm known as Cainiao and plans to make self-driving trucks. The  CEO of DeepRoute.ai, Maxwell Zhou, discloses that a large chunk of the money will move to technological advancement. It will use the remaining amount to increase its fleet size. He also claims that they have plans underway to expand the workforce.Revenue sourcesDeepRoute.ai sources its revenues in different ways, one of those being charging passengers that choose its robotaxi service. The other way has been the sharing of revenue with the ride-hailing firm. In addition, some automakers rely on its autonomous driving system, and it can thus choose to demand a one-time fee as part of its revenue-generating activities. It could also ask for an annual service fee.The competitiveness in China's autonomous driving industry continues to grow wildly, according to reports. For example, ride-hailing app Didi and the Chinese internet giant Baidu have been at the frontline of investing in autonomous driving. There are also others investing in the same space, and those are  WeRide and Pony.ai. All these investors hope to fetch high revenues that will be used in their business expansion.Please make sure to read and completely understand our disclaimer at https://www.wallstreetpr.com/disclaimer. We may be compensated for posting this content on our website by EDM Media LLC. For questions, comments or suggestions please contact ir@edm.media.The post Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR (NYSE: BABA) Participates In A $300 Million Funding Round To Boost Deeproute.ai appeared first on Wall Street PR.\nCOMTEX_393864795/2771/2021-09-23T06:06:25","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":885439686,"gmtCreate":1631808969445,"gmtModify":1631808969445,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">$高途(GOTU)$</a>建议高途与新东方换股吸收合并，整合业务，取长补短。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">$高途(GOTU)$</a>建议高途与新东方换股吸收合并，整合业务，取长补短。","text":"$高途(GOTU)$建议高途与新东方换股吸收合并，整合业务，取长补短。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885439686","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":885430539,"gmtCreate":1631808891421,"gmtModify":1631808891421,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a>建议新东方换股吸收合并高途，整合业务，取长补短。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a>建议新东方换股吸收合并高途，整合业务，取长补短。","text":"$新东方(EDU)$建议新东方换股吸收合并高途，整合业务，取长补短。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885430539","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":175457423,"gmtCreate":1627047737562,"gmtModify":1627047737562,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a>纪念一下，今天把一年多以来赚的85%的利润归零了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a>纪念一下，今天把一年多以来赚的85%的利润归零了。","text":"$新东方(EDU)$纪念一下，今天把一年多以来赚的85%的利润归零了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175457423","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3542276254143323","authorId":"3542276254143323","name":"就是玩","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"留着吧，割了也没太大意义了","text":"留着吧，割了也没太大意义了","html":"留着吧，割了也没太大意义了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":172555335,"gmtCreate":1626967836327,"gmtModify":1626967836327,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>看到有这么多打算长期持有的，那么应该肯定还会跌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>看到有这么多打算长期持有的，那么应该肯定还会跌","text":"$滴滴(DIDI)$看到有这么多打算长期持有的，那么应该肯定还会跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172555335","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":170401903,"gmtCreate":1626444437702,"gmtModify":1626444437702,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">$高途(GOTU)$</a>别墨迹，跌个30%看看","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">$高途(GOTU)$</a>别墨迹，跌个30%看看","text":"$高途(GOTU)$别墨迹，跌个30%看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170401903","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":153958517,"gmtCreate":1625007024439,"gmtModify":1625007024439,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>我把名字从&nbsp;铁韭永不做空（意思就是最多），改成了&nbsp;铁韭谨慎观望（意思就是做多不超过30%仓位）。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>我把名字从&nbsp;铁韭永不做空（意思就是最多），改成了&nbsp;铁韭谨慎观望（意思就是做多不超过30%仓位）。","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$我把名字从 铁韭永不做空（意思就是最多），改成了 铁韭谨慎观望（意思就是做多不超过30%仓位）。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153958517","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":120170432,"gmtCreate":1624317277826,"gmtModify":1624317277826,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"买买买","listText":"买买买","text":"买买买","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120170432","repostId":"2145503164","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":161708121,"gmtCreate":1623939607863,"gmtModify":1623939607863,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a>开启震荡墨迹之路","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a>开启震荡墨迹之路","text":"$新东方(EDU)$开启震荡墨迹之路","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161708121","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":114140943,"gmtCreate":1623060020882,"gmtModify":1623060020882,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"就捶你了，咋滴","listText":"就捶你了，咋滴","text":"就捶你了，咋滴","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114140943","repostId":"2140073471","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":198382130,"gmtCreate":1620926960920,"gmtModify":1620926960920,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>有希望成为下一个中国石油","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>有希望成为下一个中国石油","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$有希望成为下一个中国石油","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198382130","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389437149,"gmtCreate":1612794755181,"gmtModify":1703765121919,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看来还得涨","listText":"看来还得涨","text":"看来还得涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389437149","repostId":"2109389039","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310996269,"gmtCreate":1611239072951,"gmtModify":1703749104534,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"只要还有一人在质疑，那么就涨到他怀疑人生。&nbsp;","listText":"只要还有一人在质疑，那么就涨到他怀疑人生。&nbsp;","text":"只要还有一人在质疑，那么就涨到他怀疑人生。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310996269","repostId":"2105430816","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2105430816","pubTimestamp":1611237809,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2105430816?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-21 22:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"价投大佬Seth Klarman：美联储在“温水煮青蛙”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2105430816","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"对冲基金Baupost Group的创始人、价值投资大佬Seth Klarman向客户表示，美国的货币和财政刺激政策，令投资者相信，风险“已经消失”。但实际上，市场无法承受，市场作为价格发现机制的作用","content":"<p>对冲基金Baupost Group的创始人、价值投资大佬Seth Klarman向客户表示，美国的货币和财政刺激政策，令投资者相信，风险“已经消失”。但实际上，市场无法承受，市场作为价格发现机制的作用已经失灵。</p><p>Klarman批评美联储自疫情大流行之初就降低了利率，并给金融体系注入了资金。他认为，美联储的措施使其难以评估美国经济的健康状况：</p><blockquote>当时有非常多的手段可以刺激经济，同时也能够评估经济是否处在衰退之中。而如今，要想评估美国经济是否健康已经变得很难——就像是在一个病人服用了大量退烧药之后来评估他是否发烧。<b>这些前所未有的，持续的政府和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">中央银行</a>干预措施的最大问题是，它蒙蔽了资本不断增加所带来的风险。于是，现在就是把投资者像温水煮青蛙一样对待，投资者无法认识到风险的存在。</b></blockquote><p>自去年3月份的低点以来，美国股市已上涨超过75％，而企业债务息差（衡量企业借款人相对于美国政府必须支付多少额外利息的指标）本月已回到疫情之前的水平。</p><p>实际上，自去年3月美联储重拳出击救市以来，Klarman对美联储的种种措施就嗤之以鼻。</p><p>在去年7月，Klarman说：</p><blockquote>美联储无休止地把投资者当孩子看，就好像美联储认为他们是傻孩子，不会理性证券定价，因此必须插手干预。当市场闹脾气的时候，慈祥的美联储会恩威并施。就像30岁的人还住在父母的地下室一样，我们只能怀疑是否还会让市场自立。</blockquote>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>价投大佬Seth Klarman：美联储在“温水煮青蛙”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n价投大佬Seth Klarman：美联储在“温水煮青蛙”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-21 22:03 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3617989><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>对冲基金Baupost Group的创始人、价值投资大佬Seth Klarman向客户表示，美国的货币和财政刺激政策，令投资者相信，风险“已经消失”。但实际上，市场无法承受，市场作为价格发现机制的作用已经失灵。Klarman批评美联储自疫情大流行之初就降低了利率，并给金融体系注入了资金。他认为，美联储的措施使其难以评估美国经济的健康状况：当时有非常多的手段可以刺激经济，同时也能够评估经济是否处在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3617989\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3617989","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2105430816","content_text":"对冲基金Baupost Group的创始人、价值投资大佬Seth Klarman向客户表示，美国的货币和财政刺激政策，令投资者相信，风险“已经消失”。但实际上，市场无法承受，市场作为价格发现机制的作用已经失灵。Klarman批评美联储自疫情大流行之初就降低了利率，并给金融体系注入了资金。他认为，美联储的措施使其难以评估美国经济的健康状况：当时有非常多的手段可以刺激经济，同时也能够评估经济是否处在衰退之中。而如今，要想评估美国经济是否健康已经变得很难——就像是在一个病人服用了大量退烧药之后来评估他是否发烧。这些前所未有的，持续的政府和中央银行干预措施的最大问题是，它蒙蔽了资本不断增加所带来的风险。于是，现在就是把投资者像温水煮青蛙一样对待，投资者无法认识到风险的存在。自去年3月份的低点以来，美国股市已上涨超过75％，而企业债务息差（衡量企业借款人相对于美国政府必须支付多少额外利息的指标）本月已回到疫情之前的水平。实际上，自去年3月美联储重拳出击救市以来，Klarman对美联储的种种措施就嗤之以鼻。在去年7月，Klarman说：美联储无休止地把投资者当孩子看，就好像美联储认为他们是傻孩子，不会理性证券定价，因此必须插手干预。当市场闹脾气的时候，慈祥的美联储会恩威并施。就像30岁的人还住在父母的地下室一样，我们只能怀疑是否还会让市场自立。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310996175,"gmtCreate":1611239060197,"gmtModify":1703749103680,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"只要还有一人在质疑，那么就涨到他怀疑人生。&nbsp;","listText":"只要还有一人在质疑，那么就涨到他怀疑人生。&nbsp;","text":"只要还有一人在质疑，那么就涨到他怀疑人生。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310996175","repostId":"2105430816","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":394280135,"gmtCreate":1608039575627,"gmtModify":1703850782360,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>我就是来露一下名字的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>我就是来露一下名字的","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$我就是来露一下名字的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/394280135","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396899532,"gmtCreate":1607082795826,"gmtModify":1703846311814,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"那么肯定还能继续涨","listText":"那么肯定还能继续涨","text":"那么肯定还能继续涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396899532","repostId":"1114232787","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1114232787","pubTimestamp":1607080236,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114232787?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-04 19:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“华尔街最准确预言家”：大多数人忽略了美股这个风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114232787","media":"英为财情","summary":"被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。\n之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份","content":"<p>被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。</p>\n<p>之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份美股跌势最严重的时候预测了市场的拐点；9月底，他称“未来五周交易环境将非常困难”，正确预测到了10月份美股第二次10%的回调；11月2日，威尔逊称“所预期的回调基本上已经结束”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a1bac5a3a461bffdb4fef7e7985b725\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"661\">标普500指数走势，来源：英为财情Investing.com</p>\n<p>在股指刷新新高之后，威尔逊又预测，年底前美股还会有第三场10%的回调，虽然他亦将这个潜在的回调看作是逢低买入的机会——威尔逊仍然认为美股处于牛市当中。</p>\n<p>不过，比起威尔逊的这些预测记录，更值得研究的是威尔逊作出这个预测的依据。按照他的说法，大多数人都忽视了一个风险，即美债收益率持续走高，这将冲击科技股，并支撑周期股和价值股。</p>\n<p>威尔逊在11月底的研报中称，“我们的经济学家预测明年美国的名义GDP增长7.5%，从12个月的角度来看，仅1%的10年期美债收益率是严重错误计价。这对股票估值、尤其是纳斯达克和标普500指数的估值有重要影响，而周期股则将从更好的增长和更高的利率中受益，因此我们在过去几个月中见证了股市从纳指向罗素2000小盘股轮动。如果我们对经济和利率的看法正确，这种轮动还将继续。”</p>\n<p>这位首席美股策略师将焦点放到了美国10年期国债收益率上。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32381eb003dd4e67077f63347f2185e3\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"655\">美国十年期国债收益率，来源：英为财情Investing.com</p>\n<p>本周，该收益率一度飙升，周三曾短暂触及11月高点0.96%，随后有所回落。正是最新的这个趋势，促使威尔逊昨日再度指出，“市场现在的风险是，随着10年期美债收益率最终开始赶上来，美股的估值将会重置。”</p>\n<p>英为财情此前在《美股、美元等资产都要看它“脸色”：美债收益率会持续走高吗？》一文中指出，美债收益率走高已经成为市场共识，而最受益的可能就是周期性股票。</p>\n<p>在金融市场，向来有一个观点就是，利率是资产估值的一个“锚”，它是对金融资产进行定价的最简单方法的关键组成部分，即用企业未来利润或者现金流的现值以某个特定的利率进行贴现。这里说的利率，通常是无风险利率，即10年期美债收益率。</p>\n<p>低利率支撑着高股价。根据大多数估值模型，利率越低，投资者就越愿意为具有强劲增长前景的股票买单。这也解释了现在美股的高估值，标普500指数现在的交易价格大约是12个月远期收益的逾22倍。</p>\n<p>反过来，利率上升会削弱企业利润的价值；这会对所有企业的估值带来压力，但周期股能够更受益于经济走强，而成长股则仅面临着利率上升后利润被折价的负面影响。</p>\n<p>经济强劲通常对股市有利。但如果国债收益率持续走高，使得无风险资产的优势凸显出来，则投资者可能选择撤出高风险资产。</p>\n<p>到目前为止，美股仍处于纪录高位附近，纳斯达克综合指数周四上涨0.23%，标普500指数仅微幅下滑。但是，至少根据威尔逊的提醒，投资者需要密切关注十年期美债收益率，一旦其突破1%，这种情况有可能会发生改变。</p>","source":"ywcq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“华尔街最准确预言家”：大多数人忽略了美股这个风险</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“华尔街最准确预言家”：大多数人忽略了美股这个风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-04 19:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TNUg7fvoHlCP3apO2nnRew><strong>英为财情</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。\n之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份美股跌势最严重的时候预测了市场的拐点；9月底，他称“未来五周交易环境将非常困难”，正确预测到了10月份美股第二次10%的回调；11月2日，威尔逊称“所预期的回调基本上已经结束”。\n标普500指数走势，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TNUg7fvoHlCP3apO2nnRew\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TNUg7fvoHlCP3apO2nnRew","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114232787","content_text":"被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。\n之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份美股跌势最严重的时候预测了市场的拐点；9月底，他称“未来五周交易环境将非常困难”，正确预测到了10月份美股第二次10%的回调；11月2日，威尔逊称“所预期的回调基本上已经结束”。\n标普500指数走势，来源：英为财情Investing.com\n在股指刷新新高之后，威尔逊又预测，年底前美股还会有第三场10%的回调，虽然他亦将这个潜在的回调看作是逢低买入的机会——威尔逊仍然认为美股处于牛市当中。\n不过，比起威尔逊的这些预测记录，更值得研究的是威尔逊作出这个预测的依据。按照他的说法，大多数人都忽视了一个风险，即美债收益率持续走高，这将冲击科技股，并支撑周期股和价值股。\n威尔逊在11月底的研报中称，“我们的经济学家预测明年美国的名义GDP增长7.5%，从12个月的角度来看，仅1%的10年期美债收益率是严重错误计价。这对股票估值、尤其是纳斯达克和标普500指数的估值有重要影响，而周期股则将从更好的增长和更高的利率中受益，因此我们在过去几个月中见证了股市从纳指向罗素2000小盘股轮动。如果我们对经济和利率的看法正确，这种轮动还将继续。”\n这位首席美股策略师将焦点放到了美国10年期国债收益率上。\n美国十年期国债收益率，来源：英为财情Investing.com\n本周，该收益率一度飙升，周三曾短暂触及11月高点0.96%，随后有所回落。正是最新的这个趋势，促使威尔逊昨日再度指出，“市场现在的风险是，随着10年期美债收益率最终开始赶上来，美股的估值将会重置。”\n英为财情此前在《美股、美元等资产都要看它“脸色”：美债收益率会持续走高吗？》一文中指出，美债收益率走高已经成为市场共识，而最受益的可能就是周期性股票。\n在金融市场，向来有一个观点就是，利率是资产估值的一个“锚”，它是对金融资产进行定价的最简单方法的关键组成部分，即用企业未来利润或者现金流的现值以某个特定的利率进行贴现。这里说的利率，通常是无风险利率，即10年期美债收益率。\n低利率支撑着高股价。根据大多数估值模型，利率越低，投资者就越愿意为具有强劲增长前景的股票买单。这也解释了现在美股的高估值，标普500指数现在的交易价格大约是12个月远期收益的逾22倍。\n反过来，利率上升会削弱企业利润的价值；这会对所有企业的估值带来压力，但周期股能够更受益于经济走强，而成长股则仅面临着利率上升后利润被折价的负面影响。\n经济强劲通常对股市有利。但如果国债收益率持续走高，使得无风险资产的优势凸显出来，则投资者可能选择撤出高风险资产。\n到目前为止，美股仍处于纪录高位附近，纳斯达克综合指数周四上涨0.23%，标普500指数仅微幅下滑。但是，至少根据威尔逊的提醒，投资者需要密切关注十年期美债收益率，一旦其突破1%，这种情况有可能会发生改变。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":925874553,"gmtCreate":1587987586972,"gmtModify":1704365958054,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>慢慢补到了50%仓位，接下来看明天的表现了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>慢慢补到了50%仓位，接下来看明天的表现了。","text":"$美国原油ETF(USO)$慢慢补到了50%仓位，接下来看明天的表现了。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0c146956ebd79fbbfd0bec0b901eae","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":20,"commentSize":38,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/925874553","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6661,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3490074433062883","authorId":"3490074433062883","name":"我是昵称","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79c29db5a91e7d800235ae016bb5de7f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"我觉得这股到2以下没什么压力","text":"我觉得这股到2以下没什么压力","html":"我觉得这股到2以下没什么压力"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":175457423,"gmtCreate":1627047737562,"gmtModify":1627047737562,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a>纪念一下，今天把一年多以来赚的85%的利润归零了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a>纪念一下，今天把一年多以来赚的85%的利润归零了。","text":"$新东方(EDU)$纪念一下，今天把一年多以来赚的85%的利润归零了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175457423","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3542276254143323","authorId":"3542276254143323","name":"就是玩","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"留着吧，割了也没太大意义了","text":"留着吧，割了也没太大意义了","html":"留着吧，割了也没太大意义了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":925696752,"gmtCreate":1587991671176,"gmtModify":1704365981952,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>[财迷]&nbsp;坚信汽车能喝水就跑","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>[财迷]&nbsp;坚信汽车能喝水就跑","text":"$美国原油ETF(USO)$[财迷] 坚信汽车能喝水就跑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/925696752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3550041785944313","authorId":"3550041785944313","name":"简简单单de","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"兄弟，劝你谨慎，我亏了50%后认清现实跑了[流泪][流泪][流泪]","text":"兄弟，劝你谨慎，我亏了50%后认清现实跑了[流泪][流泪][流泪]","html":"兄弟，劝你谨慎，我亏了50%后认清现实跑了[流泪][流泪][流泪]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":307559107,"gmtCreate":1605605143609,"gmtModify":1703838519388,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$辉瑞(PFE)$</a>为什么价格比昨天收盘价低，但是却显示是上涨的？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$辉瑞(PFE)$</a>为什么价格比昨天收盘价低，但是却显示是上涨的？","text":"$辉瑞(PFE)$为什么价格比昨天收盘价低，但是却显示是上涨的？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307559107","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3458406104219214","authorId":"3458406104219214","name":"hanksluo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dfc22b979fb962056db40c807ea1332","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"应该是PFE新成立的子公司VTRS拆分出股票，算上这部分是上涨的","text":"应该是PFE新成立的子公司VTRS拆分出股票，算上这部分是上涨的","html":"应该是PFE新成立的子公司VTRS拆分出股票，算上这部分是上涨的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922940914,"gmtCreate":1587427139938,"gmtModify":1704364117352,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CL2005\">$WTI原油2005(CL2005)$</a>请问大佬，负值买入怎么算？是不是-40的价位我买入，相当于账户多了40美元？这不可思议啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CL2005\">$WTI原油2005(CL2005)$</a>请问大佬，负值买入怎么算？是不是-40的价位我买入，相当于账户多了40美元？这不可思议啊","text":"$WTI原油2005(CL2005)$请问大佬，负值买入怎么算？是不是-40的价位我买入，相当于账户多了40美元？这不可思议啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922940914","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7897,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693686080,"gmtCreate":1640013389546,"gmtModify":1640013389546,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>阿里巴巴会变成下一个中石油，立贴为证。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>阿里巴巴会变成下一个中石油，立贴为证。","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$阿里巴巴会变成下一个中石油，立贴为证。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693686080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3598,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3586226648271295","authorId":"3586226648271295","name":"小核桃123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b970668b7487de6f0ffcea301dfddbe6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"错，中石油再怎么着也不会倒，阿里说倒就倒了","text":"错，中石油再怎么着也不会倒，阿里说倒就倒了","html":"错，中石油再怎么着也不会倒，阿里说倒就倒了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922001567,"gmtCreate":1587385134059,"gmtModify":1704363868947,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CL2005\">$WTI原油2005(CL2005)$</a>[衰]5月份的合约最低跌到11元，和6月的差了11美元，有现货的可以低吸5月合约，然后展期再套现，我这种新手都知道的方法肯定是哪个环节有问题的？高手教一下","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CL2005\">$WTI原油2005(CL2005)$</a>[衰]5月份的合约最低跌到11元，和6月的差了11美元，有现货的可以低吸5月合约，然后展期再套现，我这种新手都知道的方法肯定是哪个环节有问题的？高手教一下","text":"$WTI原油2005(CL2005)$[衰]5月份的合约最低跌到11元，和6月的差了11美元，有现货的可以低吸5月合约，然后展期再套现，我这种新手都知道的方法肯定是哪个环节有问题的？高手教一下","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922001567","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":926716590,"gmtCreate":1587361518410,"gmtModify":1704363777733,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$</a>昨天收盘是18，今天怎么变成23了？新韭菜求助","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$</a>昨天收盘是18，今天怎么变成23了？新韭菜求助","text":"$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$昨天收盘是18，今天怎么变成23了？新韭菜求助","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/926716590","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922483171,"gmtCreate":1587642001093,"gmtModify":1704365052300,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>想择时、择机、择股调仓的业绩从来都没有一直持股不动的好，以为自己聪明，其实最后是最傻的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>想择时、择机、择股调仓的业绩从来都没有一直持股不动的好，以为自己聪明，其实最后是最傻的","text":"$美国原油ETF(USO)$想择时、择机、择股调仓的业绩从来都没有一直持股不动的好，以为自己聪明，其实最后是最傻的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922483171","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":885439686,"gmtCreate":1631808969445,"gmtModify":1631808969445,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">$高途(GOTU)$</a>建议高途与新东方换股吸收合并，整合业务，取长补短。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">$高途(GOTU)$</a>建议高途与新东方换股吸收合并，整合业务，取长补短。","text":"$高途(GOTU)$建议高途与新东方换股吸收合并，整合业务，取长补短。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885439686","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":885430539,"gmtCreate":1631808891421,"gmtModify":1631808891421,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a>建议新东方换股吸收合并高途，整合业务，取长补短。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a>建议新东方换股吸收合并高途，整合业务，取长补短。","text":"$新东方(EDU)$建议新东方换股吸收合并高途，整合业务，取长补短。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885430539","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300405019,"gmtCreate":1602283789531,"gmtModify":1703826396106,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a>不想说什么，只是来露一个我的名字","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a>不想说什么，只是来露一个我的名字","text":"$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 不想说什么，只是来露一个我的名字","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300405019","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":172555335,"gmtCreate":1626967836327,"gmtModify":1626967836327,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>看到有这么多打算长期持有的，那么应该肯定还会跌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>看到有这么多打算长期持有的，那么应该肯定还会跌","text":"$滴滴(DIDI)$看到有这么多打算长期持有的，那么应该肯定还会跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172555335","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927577515,"gmtCreate":1588946629837,"gmtModify":1704179008691,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"只要还有利空消息，就会继续涨，直到大家一致不敢看空","listText":"只要还有利空消息，就会继续涨，直到大家一致不敢看空","text":"只要还有利空消息，就会继续涨，直到大家一致不敢看空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927577515","repostId":"1184089661","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1184089661","pubTimestamp":1588945456,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184089661?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-08 21:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"非农数据已失真，美国经济面临一个“L”型的未来","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184089661","media":"金十数据","summary":"“-2050万人、14.7%”， 一切正如市场预期的那般惨烈……","content":"<p>今晚，4月非农就业报告如约而至。</p><blockquote><p><span><b>“-2050万人、14.7%”</b></span></p></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d31f71a91df854b234bba69cff7d470\"></p><p>一切正如市场预期的那般惨烈。普通人可能对这个数据没什么直观的感受，那么对比一下：</p><blockquote><p>美国纽约州在2019年的人口约2000万人左右。<br></p><p>自2009年11月以来，美国非农新增就业人口也不过2244万人。</p></blockquote><p>也就是说，在刚刚过去的4月，美国几乎有一整个州的人都失业了，也可以说十年功夫在一个月内尽毁了。更可怕的是，有人认为非农数据并不真实，完整，现实中的失业状况或比报告展示的更加严重......</p><p><b><span>01非农数据有多失真？</span></b></p><p>“现在公布的数据是否只是冰山一角？”这种说法并不是无凭无据的，也不是骇人听闻的，有些蛛丝马迹甚至就藏在报告里面。</p><p><b><span>首先，对于非农报告的第一个质疑就是失业率是14.7%还是22.8%？</span></b></p><p>我们平时关注的非农失业率实际上是指U-3失业率，其中包括了各类临时工的就业，但又把没有主动找工作的那群社会闲置人员摒除在外。没错！这简直就是神不知鬼不觉地美化了失业率。</p><p>在以往正常的时候，这两个指标的差别还不太大，然而，在疫情的影响下，越来越多人难以找到正常工作，更多的人选择暂时放弃应聘（报告显示就业参与率已经下降至60.2%，这也将支撑U-3失业率），如今，U-6失业率显然更能说明问题的严重性。</p><p>在本次的非农报告中，<b>U-3失业率从3月份的4.4%上升到4月份创纪录的14.7%，U-6失业率录得22.8%，逼近1933年大萧条时期创下的24.9%的峰值。</b></p><p><b><span>除了U-6失业率，其他同类指标早已率先报警。</span></b></p><p>关于这点，相信也不用过多赘述，小伙伴们肯定早就对此有多耳闻。</p><blockquote><p>每周初请数据显示，过去七周，美国失业人数飙升至3300万人。<br>美国4月挑战者企业裁员人数录得67.1129万人，较2002年创下的前纪录高位高出170%。<br>美国4月ADP就业人数录得-2023.6万人，远超前纪录低位的-70.8万人。</p></blockquote><p><b>不仅如此，薪资水平和增速，平均工时的下降，55岁及以上工人及妇女的失业歧视问题都触目惊心。</b></p><p><b><span>02“慌张”的美国人</span></b></p><p><b><span>那么，面对如此严峻的就业形势，美国人慌不慌？答案是真慌！</span></b></p><p>上到乐天派领袖特朗普和狂颁布新政策的美联储，下到抢纸抢洗衣粉，到现在抢救济金的美国民众，都用实际行动证明了这场衰退危机的可怕程度。<b><span>我们先从上层看起，看看在这场疫情对抗中站首位的美国政府。</span></b></p><p>从3月以来，美国方面已经推出了4轮经济救助措施，第五轮救济方案已经开始酝酿。无论是推出新方案的速度，规模，都是前所未见的程度，这个都是有目共睹的。</p><p>而我们今天要着重要说的是，美国政府在颁布每一轮救济方案后，又是如何后知后觉地进行“亡羊补牢”的。</p><p><b>简单来说，其实在这场危机中，受到冲击最大的就是那些小公司和处于底层的普通民众</b>，而美国颁布的前几轮法案似乎都未能把钱送到需要的人手中。相反地，大公司却中饱私囊，有工作的人为了领取救济金甚至主动失业。</p><p>这也是为什么，在后面的救济方案中，我们可以看到分配力度向小企业倾斜，特朗普甚至直接炮轰某些大机构和企业对救济金的“贪婪”。我们可以看看对比：</p><blockquote><p>在3月颁布的2.2万亿美元的CARES法案中，包括近3500亿美元的小企业救济贷款，占比约16%。<br>而在4月25日颁布的第四轮4840亿救助法案中，3100亿美元分配给了小企业，占比64%。</p></blockquote><p>除此之外，特朗普虽然没有像其前任奥巴马一般推出全民医保，但是也建立了“流行病失业援助”（PUA）项目，专门为那些无法享受失业保险的个人提供福利，如自营职业者、独立承包商和零工经济工作者。</p><p>很明显，这次冲击对于美国政府来说，也是一个挑战，他们嘴里说着不慌，却也无法立即推出行之有效的策略，只能在每一次不断进行事后调整和补充。</p><p><b><span>顺着这条藤往下看，我们就会发现一个疯狂接盘的美联储，下面这组数据就足以说明一切了。</span></b></p><blockquote><p>截止上周末，美联储的资产负债表规模已创下了约6.66万亿美元的纪录新高。</p></blockquote><p>虽然美联储已经开始“急刹车”，近一个多月以来一直持续减少QE规模，但显然放水速度仍太快，且木已成舟。</p><p><b>既然政府和美联储都已经如此“慌不迭地”，普通民众就更不用说了。</b></p><blockquote><p>失业只是第一个难题，申领救济金就是第二步，接下来还需面对等待失业金发放的漫长过程，重新就业却“投靠无门”的窘境......</p></blockquote><p><b><span>03透过非农，看美国经济未来</span></b></p><p>这样看来，这次的突发性卫生事件仿佛是场专门为美国设计的试验，从经济结构，就业市场，再到政府和央行应对能力，社会保障体系等等诸多方面的缺陷都被一一点破。</p><p>首先，很明显看到的是，<b><span>相对其他国家，美国就业市场的颓势来得更猛更快。该现象的根源是来自美国的经济结构。</span></b></p><blockquote><p>由于逾80%的GDP来自服务业的贡献，美国就业市场一直外强中虚，外包制造业的弊端早已开始酝酿。</p></blockquote><p>也正是因此，考虑到服务业对社会消费活力的依赖程度，为了防止更多产能遭到不可逆的破坏，以特朗普为首的政治精英不得不呼吁火速重启经济。在重启之后，有分析表示，美国将继续鼓励制造企业回流，而页岩油这种扛把子行业自然也是“大而不倒”的。</p><p>其次，<b><span>经过一连串的救济活动后，美国政府债务问题无法再忽视，海量债务找谁接盘？</span></b>（美联储显然已经不愿再继续了接盘了）</p><p>对此，有分析指出了，三个解决方案。</p><blockquote><p>一是用之于市场，自然会从市场手中拿回来，危机过后的紧缩或无法避免。<br>二是其他国家，有人认为如此大规模的债务，恐怕只能从别的国家中索取，随着利益分割再被质疑，各种国与国之间的摩擦恐升温。<br>三是继续维护美元的权威低位。</p></blockquote><p>对了，据华尔街日报，特朗普政府可能禁止新的临时和工作签证，预计本月出台政策。难道为了保住美国人的饭碗，特朗普已经开始打起外国人就业职位的主意了吗？</p><p><b><span>透过此次的非农，看美国经济未来。</span></b></p><p>有人认为，在这次危机过后，美国或需要另一个十年来重整旗鼓，也有人说这次的衰退复苏轨迹很可能就是“L型”的。</p><p>美国前国务卿基辛格的说法显然更具代表性，基辛格表示：</p><blockquote><p><b><span>“即便疫情过去了，世界也不会是之前的样子了。 ”</span></b></p></blockquote>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>非农数据已失真，美国经济面临一个“L”型的未来</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n非农数据已失真，美国经济面临一个“L”型的未来\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-08 21:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/59770><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今晚，4月非农就业报告如约而至。“-2050万人、14.7%”一切正如市场预期的那般惨烈。普通人可能对这个数据没什么直观的感受，那么对比一下：美国纽约州在2019年的人口约2000万人左右。自2009年11月以来，美国非农新增就业人口也不过2244万人。也就是说，在刚刚过去的4月，美国几乎有一整个州的人都失业了，也可以说十年功夫在一个月内尽毁了。更可怕的是，有人认为非农数据并不真实，完整，现实中的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/59770\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e44b70b343e617916e4a645ff4d3c6c","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/59770","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184089661","content_text":"今晚，4月非农就业报告如约而至。“-2050万人、14.7%”一切正如市场预期的那般惨烈。普通人可能对这个数据没什么直观的感受，那么对比一下：美国纽约州在2019年的人口约2000万人左右。自2009年11月以来，美国非农新增就业人口也不过2244万人。也就是说，在刚刚过去的4月，美国几乎有一整个州的人都失业了，也可以说十年功夫在一个月内尽毁了。更可怕的是，有人认为非农数据并不真实，完整，现实中的失业状况或比报告展示的更加严重......01非农数据有多失真？“现在公布的数据是否只是冰山一角？”这种说法并不是无凭无据的，也不是骇人听闻的，有些蛛丝马迹甚至就藏在报告里面。首先，对于非农报告的第一个质疑就是失业率是14.7%还是22.8%？我们平时关注的非农失业率实际上是指U-3失业率，其中包括了各类临时工的就业，但又把没有主动找工作的那群社会闲置人员摒除在外。没错！这简直就是神不知鬼不觉地美化了失业率。在以往正常的时候，这两个指标的差别还不太大，然而，在疫情的影响下，越来越多人难以找到正常工作，更多的人选择暂时放弃应聘（报告显示就业参与率已经下降至60.2%，这也将支撑U-3失业率），如今，U-6失业率显然更能说明问题的严重性。在本次的非农报告中，U-3失业率从3月份的4.4%上升到4月份创纪录的14.7%，U-6失业率录得22.8%，逼近1933年大萧条时期创下的24.9%的峰值。除了U-6失业率，其他同类指标早已率先报警。关于这点，相信也不用过多赘述，小伙伴们肯定早就对此有多耳闻。每周初请数据显示，过去七周，美国失业人数飙升至3300万人。美国4月挑战者企业裁员人数录得67.1129万人，较2002年创下的前纪录高位高出170%。美国4月ADP就业人数录得-2023.6万人，远超前纪录低位的-70.8万人。不仅如此，薪资水平和增速，平均工时的下降，55岁及以上工人及妇女的失业歧视问题都触目惊心。02“慌张”的美国人那么，面对如此严峻的就业形势，美国人慌不慌？答案是真慌！上到乐天派领袖特朗普和狂颁布新政策的美联储，下到抢纸抢洗衣粉，到现在抢救济金的美国民众，都用实际行动证明了这场衰退危机的可怕程度。我们先从上层看起，看看在这场疫情对抗中站首位的美国政府。从3月以来，美国方面已经推出了4轮经济救助措施，第五轮救济方案已经开始酝酿。无论是推出新方案的速度，规模，都是前所未见的程度，这个都是有目共睹的。而我们今天要着重要说的是，美国政府在颁布每一轮救济方案后，又是如何后知后觉地进行“亡羊补牢”的。简单来说，其实在这场危机中，受到冲击最大的就是那些小公司和处于底层的普通民众，而美国颁布的前几轮法案似乎都未能把钱送到需要的人手中。相反地，大公司却中饱私囊，有工作的人为了领取救济金甚至主动失业。这也是为什么，在后面的救济方案中，我们可以看到分配力度向小企业倾斜，特朗普甚至直接炮轰某些大机构和企业对救济金的“贪婪”。我们可以看看对比：在3月颁布的2.2万亿美元的CARES法案中，包括近3500亿美元的小企业救济贷款，占比约16%。而在4月25日颁布的第四轮4840亿救助法案中，3100亿美元分配给了小企业，占比64%。除此之外，特朗普虽然没有像其前任奥巴马一般推出全民医保，但是也建立了“流行病失业援助”（PUA）项目，专门为那些无法享受失业保险的个人提供福利，如自营职业者、独立承包商和零工经济工作者。很明显，这次冲击对于美国政府来说，也是一个挑战，他们嘴里说着不慌，却也无法立即推出行之有效的策略，只能在每一次不断进行事后调整和补充。顺着这条藤往下看，我们就会发现一个疯狂接盘的美联储，下面这组数据就足以说明一切了。截止上周末，美联储的资产负债表规模已创下了约6.66万亿美元的纪录新高。虽然美联储已经开始“急刹车”，近一个多月以来一直持续减少QE规模，但显然放水速度仍太快，且木已成舟。既然政府和美联储都已经如此“慌不迭地”，普通民众就更不用说了。失业只是第一个难题，申领救济金就是第二步，接下来还需面对等待失业金发放的漫长过程，重新就业却“投靠无门”的窘境......03透过非农，看美国经济未来这样看来，这次的突发性卫生事件仿佛是场专门为美国设计的试验，从经济结构，就业市场，再到政府和央行应对能力，社会保障体系等等诸多方面的缺陷都被一一点破。首先，很明显看到的是，相对其他国家，美国就业市场的颓势来得更猛更快。该现象的根源是来自美国的经济结构。由于逾80%的GDP来自服务业的贡献，美国就业市场一直外强中虚，外包制造业的弊端早已开始酝酿。也正是因此，考虑到服务业对社会消费活力的依赖程度，为了防止更多产能遭到不可逆的破坏，以特朗普为首的政治精英不得不呼吁火速重启经济。在重启之后，有分析表示，美国将继续鼓励制造企业回流，而页岩油这种扛把子行业自然也是“大而不倒”的。其次，经过一连串的救济活动后，美国政府债务问题无法再忽视，海量债务找谁接盘？（美联储显然已经不愿再继续了接盘了）对此，有分析指出了，三个解决方案。一是用之于市场，自然会从市场手中拿回来，危机过后的紧缩或无法避免。二是其他国家，有人认为如此大规模的债务，恐怕只能从别的国家中索取，随着利益分割再被质疑，各种国与国之间的摩擦恐升温。三是继续维护美元的权威低位。对了，据华尔街日报，特朗普政府可能禁止新的临时和工作签证，预计本月出台政策。难道为了保住美国人的饭碗，特朗普已经开始打起外国人就业职位的主意了吗？透过此次的非农，看美国经济未来。有人认为，在这次危机过后，美国或需要另一个十年来重整旗鼓，也有人说这次的衰退复苏轨迹很可能就是“L型”的。美国前国务卿基辛格的说法显然更具代表性，基辛格表示：“即便疫情过去了，世界也不会是之前的样子了。 ”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":925847032,"gmtCreate":1587984483526,"gmtModify":1704365943625,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>[捂脸]&nbsp;后天价格上15元以上，没上我直播吃翔","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>[捂脸]&nbsp;后天价格上15元以上，没上我直播吃翔","text":"$美国原油ETF(USO)$[捂脸] 后天价格上15元以上，没上我直播吃翔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/925847032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922432291,"gmtCreate":1587637128113,"gmtModify":1704365029057,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>这只etf是满仓的吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>这只etf是满仓的吗？","text":"$美国原油ETF(USO)$这只etf是满仓的吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922432291","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396899532,"gmtCreate":1607082795826,"gmtModify":1703846311814,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"那么肯定还能继续涨","listText":"那么肯定还能继续涨","text":"那么肯定还能继续涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396899532","repostId":"1114232787","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1114232787","pubTimestamp":1607080236,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114232787?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-04 19:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“华尔街最准确预言家”：大多数人忽略了美股这个风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114232787","media":"英为财情","summary":"被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。\n之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份","content":"<p>被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。</p>\n<p>之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份美股跌势最严重的时候预测了市场的拐点；9月底，他称“未来五周交易环境将非常困难”，正确预测到了10月份美股第二次10%的回调；11月2日，威尔逊称“所预期的回调基本上已经结束”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a1bac5a3a461bffdb4fef7e7985b725\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"661\">标普500指数走势，来源：英为财情Investing.com</p>\n<p>在股指刷新新高之后，威尔逊又预测，年底前美股还会有第三场10%的回调，虽然他亦将这个潜在的回调看作是逢低买入的机会——威尔逊仍然认为美股处于牛市当中。</p>\n<p>不过，比起威尔逊的这些预测记录，更值得研究的是威尔逊作出这个预测的依据。按照他的说法，大多数人都忽视了一个风险，即美债收益率持续走高，这将冲击科技股，并支撑周期股和价值股。</p>\n<p>威尔逊在11月底的研报中称，“我们的经济学家预测明年美国的名义GDP增长7.5%，从12个月的角度来看，仅1%的10年期美债收益率是严重错误计价。这对股票估值、尤其是纳斯达克和标普500指数的估值有重要影响，而周期股则将从更好的增长和更高的利率中受益，因此我们在过去几个月中见证了股市从纳指向罗素2000小盘股轮动。如果我们对经济和利率的看法正确，这种轮动还将继续。”</p>\n<p>这位首席美股策略师将焦点放到了美国10年期国债收益率上。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32381eb003dd4e67077f63347f2185e3\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"655\">美国十年期国债收益率，来源：英为财情Investing.com</p>\n<p>本周，该收益率一度飙升，周三曾短暂触及11月高点0.96%，随后有所回落。正是最新的这个趋势，促使威尔逊昨日再度指出，“市场现在的风险是，随着10年期美债收益率最终开始赶上来，美股的估值将会重置。”</p>\n<p>英为财情此前在《美股、美元等资产都要看它“脸色”：美债收益率会持续走高吗？》一文中指出，美债收益率走高已经成为市场共识，而最受益的可能就是周期性股票。</p>\n<p>在金融市场，向来有一个观点就是，利率是资产估值的一个“锚”，它是对金融资产进行定价的最简单方法的关键组成部分，即用企业未来利润或者现金流的现值以某个特定的利率进行贴现。这里说的利率，通常是无风险利率，即10年期美债收益率。</p>\n<p>低利率支撑着高股价。根据大多数估值模型，利率越低，投资者就越愿意为具有强劲增长前景的股票买单。这也解释了现在美股的高估值，标普500指数现在的交易价格大约是12个月远期收益的逾22倍。</p>\n<p>反过来，利率上升会削弱企业利润的价值；这会对所有企业的估值带来压力，但周期股能够更受益于经济走强，而成长股则仅面临着利率上升后利润被折价的负面影响。</p>\n<p>经济强劲通常对股市有利。但如果国债收益率持续走高，使得无风险资产的优势凸显出来，则投资者可能选择撤出高风险资产。</p>\n<p>到目前为止，美股仍处于纪录高位附近，纳斯达克综合指数周四上涨0.23%，标普500指数仅微幅下滑。但是，至少根据威尔逊的提醒，投资者需要密切关注十年期美债收益率，一旦其突破1%，这种情况有可能会发生改变。</p>","source":"ywcq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“华尔街最准确预言家”：大多数人忽略了美股这个风险</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“华尔街最准确预言家”：大多数人忽略了美股这个风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-04 19:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TNUg7fvoHlCP3apO2nnRew><strong>英为财情</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。\n之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份美股跌势最严重的时候预测了市场的拐点；9月底，他称“未来五周交易环境将非常困难”，正确预测到了10月份美股第二次10%的回调；11月2日，威尔逊称“所预期的回调基本上已经结束”。\n标普500指数走势，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TNUg7fvoHlCP3apO2nnRew\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TNUg7fvoHlCP3apO2nnRew","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114232787","content_text":"被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。\n之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份美股跌势最严重的时候预测了市场的拐点；9月底，他称“未来五周交易环境将非常困难”，正确预测到了10月份美股第二次10%的回调；11月2日，威尔逊称“所预期的回调基本上已经结束”。\n标普500指数走势，来源：英为财情Investing.com\n在股指刷新新高之后，威尔逊又预测，年底前美股还会有第三场10%的回调，虽然他亦将这个潜在的回调看作是逢低买入的机会——威尔逊仍然认为美股处于牛市当中。\n不过，比起威尔逊的这些预测记录，更值得研究的是威尔逊作出这个预测的依据。按照他的说法，大多数人都忽视了一个风险，即美债收益率持续走高，这将冲击科技股，并支撑周期股和价值股。\n威尔逊在11月底的研报中称，“我们的经济学家预测明年美国的名义GDP增长7.5%，从12个月的角度来看，仅1%的10年期美债收益率是严重错误计价。这对股票估值、尤其是纳斯达克和标普500指数的估值有重要影响，而周期股则将从更好的增长和更高的利率中受益，因此我们在过去几个月中见证了股市从纳指向罗素2000小盘股轮动。如果我们对经济和利率的看法正确，这种轮动还将继续。”\n这位首席美股策略师将焦点放到了美国10年期国债收益率上。\n美国十年期国债收益率，来源：英为财情Investing.com\n本周，该收益率一度飙升，周三曾短暂触及11月高点0.96%，随后有所回落。正是最新的这个趋势，促使威尔逊昨日再度指出，“市场现在的风险是，随着10年期美债收益率最终开始赶上来，美股的估值将会重置。”\n英为财情此前在《美股、美元等资产都要看它“脸色”：美债收益率会持续走高吗？》一文中指出，美债收益率走高已经成为市场共识，而最受益的可能就是周期性股票。\n在金融市场，向来有一个观点就是，利率是资产估值的一个“锚”，它是对金融资产进行定价的最简单方法的关键组成部分，即用企业未来利润或者现金流的现值以某个特定的利率进行贴现。这里说的利率，通常是无风险利率，即10年期美债收益率。\n低利率支撑着高股价。根据大多数估值模型，利率越低，投资者就越愿意为具有强劲增长前景的股票买单。这也解释了现在美股的高估值，标普500指数现在的交易价格大约是12个月远期收益的逾22倍。\n反过来，利率上升会削弱企业利润的价值；这会对所有企业的估值带来压力，但周期股能够更受益于经济走强，而成长股则仅面临着利率上升后利润被折价的负面影响。\n经济强劲通常对股市有利。但如果国债收益率持续走高，使得无风险资产的优势凸显出来，则投资者可能选择撤出高风险资产。\n到目前为止，美股仍处于纪录高位附近，纳斯达克综合指数周四上涨0.23%，标普500指数仅微幅下滑。但是，至少根据威尔逊的提醒，投资者需要密切关注十年期美债收益率，一旦其突破1%，这种情况有可能会发生改变。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":952247714,"gmtCreate":1591979818938,"gmtModify":1704197976503,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>大家有没有遇到这样的bug：以50元挂了买单，后来点撤销一直显示待撤销，这时再以低于50元的价格挂卖单，系统提示与待撤销的买单存在冲突，卖单无效。也就是我卖不出去了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>大家有没有遇到这样的bug：以50元挂了买单，后来点撤销一直显示待撤销，这时再以低于50元的价格挂卖单，系统提示与待撤销的买单存在冲突，卖单无效。也就是我卖不出去了","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$大家有没有遇到这样的bug：以50元挂了买单，后来点撤销一直显示待撤销，这时再以低于50元的价格挂卖单，系统提示与待撤销的买单存在冲突，卖单无效。也就是我卖不出去了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/952247714","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":958533465,"gmtCreate":1591300255457,"gmtModify":1704195273444,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/YMmain\">$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$&nbsp;</a>尾盘了请开始你的拉升表演","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/YMmain\">$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$&nbsp;</a>尾盘了请开始你的拉升表演","text":"$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$ 尾盘了请开始你的拉升表演","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/958533465","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692760096,"gmtCreate":1641220994928,"gmtModify":1641220994928,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>可以开始谨慎抄底了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>可以开始谨慎抄底了","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$可以开始谨慎抄底了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692760096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}