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BAYMAXHIT

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2025-09-10

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 小米，扶不起的烂墙，逢高就抛

2025-10-06

$泡泡玛特(09992)$ 庄家吸筹，坚定看好

2025-10-02

$泡泡玛特(09992)$ 国庆助消，泡泡玛特涨起

2025-10-14

$泡泡玛特(09992)$ 即将开启新的一轮涨幅

2025-07-29

$上证指数(000001.SH)$ 指数已经过高了，后面还是要留意回踩

2025-06-15

$泡泡玛特(09992)$

2024-03-27

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特大爷涨涨涨

02-03

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 大资金入场，准备飞

2025-12-11

$泡泡玛特(09992)$ 入场好机会

2025-10-16

笑死，前几天摩根大通调为中性，今天就调成增持

摩根大通上调泡泡玛特至“增持”！热门IP持续强劲+估值吸引力显著提升

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 大资金入场，准备飞","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 大资金入场，准备飞","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 大资金入场，准备飞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/528649962394872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":509511702978584,"gmtCreate":1765430442484,"gmtModify":1765430444415,"author":{"id":"3546647833104598","authorId":"3546647833104598","name":"BAYMAXHIT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d15f525cfa39964bc3e1c2e815fae205","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546647833104598","authorIdStr":"3546647833104598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">$泡泡玛特(09992)$&nbsp;</a><v-v 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入场好机会","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/509511702978584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":489743066218960,"gmtCreate":1760593552719,"gmtModify":1760593555185,"author":{"id":"3546647833104598","authorId":"3546647833104598","name":"BAYMAXHIT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d15f525cfa39964bc3e1c2e815fae205","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546647833104598","authorIdStr":"3546647833104598"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"笑死，前几天摩根大通调为中性，今天就调成增持","listText":"笑死，前几天摩根大通调为中性，今天就调成增持","text":"笑死，前几天摩根大通调为中性，今天就调成增持","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/489743066218960","repostId":"2575576968","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2575576968","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1760577026,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2575576968?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-16 09:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"摩根大通上调泡泡玛特至“增持”！热门IP持续强劲+估值吸引力显著提升","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2575576968","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根大通认为泡泡玛特不仅通过Labubu的持续火爆和“星星人”的成功证明了其并非依赖单一IP，更通过全球化布局和强大的定价权展现了其抵御外部风险的能力。当前20倍的2026年预期市盈率，相较于其高增长前景，估值颇具吸引力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>10月16日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>盘初涨超4%！摩根大通上调其评级至“增持”！热门IP持续强劲+估值吸引力显著提升。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04d1c8a13b0a08d1cf6da870f8f936a0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><blockquote><p>摩根大通认为泡泡玛特不仅通过Labubu的持续火爆和“星星人”的成功证明了其并非依赖单一IP，更通过全球化布局和强大的定价权展现了其抵御外部风险的能力。当前20倍的2026年预期市盈率，相较于其高增长前景，估值颇具吸引力。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根大通认为，泡泡玛特的基本面并未改变，反而更加强劲，而市场的恐慌提供了一个绝佳的配置时机。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">追风交易台消息，10月15日摩根大通发表研报，将泡泡玛特评级从&#34;中性&#34;上调至&#34;增持&#34;，目标价从300港元上调至320港元。这一调整主要基于两大关键因素:</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>一是热门IP持续强劲</strong>。尽管Labubu产能已较一季度提升10倍,但Labubu 3.0和Mini Labubu在所有地区仍处于售罄状态。此外，新IP&#34;星星人&#34;快速崛起，预计将贡献2027年销售额的8%。</p></li><li><p><strong>二是估值吸引力显著提升</strong>。股价较8月高点回调24%，而同期恒生指数上涨7%，当前按摩根大通预测仅20倍2026年市盈率，风险回报比更具吸引力。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报强调泡泡玛特不仅通过Labubu的持续火爆和“星星人”的成功证明了其并非依赖单一IP，更通过全球化布局和强大的定价权展现了其抵御外部风险的能力。</p><h2 id=\"labubu-10\">核心引擎Labubu，产能猛增10倍，依旧供不应求</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Labubu的惊人热度是支撑泡泡玛特增长的核心引擎。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据摩根大通的观察，即便公司已将Labubu的产能相较于2025年第一季度提升了整整10倍，其Labubu 3.0和Mini Labubu系列产品在所有销售点仍然处于售罄状态。这直接粉碎了市场对于其需求可持续性的疑虑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>二级市场的价格是衡量IP热度的晴雨表。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据显示，10月9日发售的万圣节“Why So Serious”毛绒系列中，Labubu款在二手市场上的转售价格溢价高达290%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，公司计划于12月发布“Labubu &amp; Friends”动画，并于2026年3月或4月推出Labubu 4.0，这些都将成为未来增长的催化剂。</p><h2 id=\"ip\">新星“星星人”崛起，验证IP矩阵多元化能力</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">比Labubu的持续火爆更让投资者振奋的，是新IP的成功孵化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">泡泡玛特的新IP“星星人”（Twinkle Twinkle）正迅速成为一个新的增长动力。在10月9日发售的万圣节系列中，包含5个IP（Labubu、星星人、Molly、Dimoo和Hacipupu）的产品在主流线上平台于数分钟内售罄。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得关注的是，该系列中，“星星人”的二级市场溢价高达130%，仅次于Labubu的290%，但远高于其他IP（-18%至+26%）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>摩根大通认为，这表明“星星人”正在吸引其“真实的粉丝群”，而不仅仅是消费者在买不到Labubu时的替代品。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">基于此强劲表现，<strong>摩根大通预测“星星人”将在2027年贡献公司总销售额的8%</strong>，与Skullpanda、Molly和Crybaby等成熟大IP（预计均为8-9%）并驾齐驱，<strong>而Labubu的贡献预计为35%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这有力地证明了泡泡玛特强大的IP发掘和商业化能力，以及通过IP矩阵多元化维持长期增长的战略正在成功落地。</p><h2 id=\"c2ee42cc\">市场过度悲观？基本面强劲，估值已具吸引力</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">泡泡玛特股价从近期高点335.40港元下跌24%至254港元，而同期恒生指数却上涨了7%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94fcb8bde79b71b4c54f5d7af1efe240\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"325\"/></p><p>（今年以来泡泡玛特与恒生指数走势对比）</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根大通认为，这种剧烈的相对弱势表现表明，投资者已经建立了过度保守的预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，公司的基本面依旧强劲。基于Labubu和新IP的强劲销售势头，摩根大通将公司2025至2027年的盈利预测上调了5-7%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>调整后，预计泡泡玛特2025年销售额和调整后盈利将分别同比增长165%和276%，2026年将继续同比增长28%和29%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在强劲增长预期的支撑下，<strong>目前基于摩根大通预测的2026年市盈率仅为20倍</strong>。这一估值水平相较于其他增长质量较低的消费品公司，展现出更有利的风险回报。</p><h2 id=\"806f3eb4\">全球化供应链加速</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于投资者普遍担忧的全球贸易摩擦带来的关税风险，摩根大通认为其对泡泡玛特的财务影响将是有限的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>首先，泡泡玛特已为2025年第四季度的购物季准备了库存，可应对近期关税波动。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>其次，公司拥有直接提价的权利以对冲成本上升。</strong>事实上，公司在2025年4月已成功在海外市场进行过一轮提价，盲盒价格上调12%（从17美元至19美元），毛绒玩具上调27%（从22美元至28美元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根大通测算，泡泡玛特仅需提价约15%即可完全抵消美洲市场关税对毛利的影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>更重要的是，为了支撑长期全球扩张，泡泡玛特正在规划全球六大制造中心（中国4个，海外2个）。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根大通估计，美洲市场销售贡献将从2025年的约21%提升至2027年的约28%，海外业务对集团收益的贡献将在2027年接近60%，全球化布局的重要性日益凸显。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根大通预计，关税不确定性的加剧，反而会促使公司加速其供应链的全球化布局，从而在根本上降低地缘政治风险。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根大通上调泡泡玛特至“增持”！热门IP持续强劲+估值吸引力显著提升</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根大通上调泡泡玛特至“增持”！热门IP持续强劲+估值吸引力显著提升\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-16 09:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757274><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>10月16日，泡泡玛特盘初涨超4%！摩根大通上调其评级至“增持”！热门IP持续强劲+估值吸引力显著提升。摩根大通认为泡泡玛特不仅通过Labubu的持续火爆和“星星人”的成功证明了其并非依赖单一IP，更通过全球化布局和强大的定价权展现了其抵御外部风险的能力。当前20倍的2026年预期市盈率，相较于其高增长前景，估值颇具吸引力。摩根大通认为，泡泡玛特的基本面并未改变，反而更加强劲，而市场的恐慌提供了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757274\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dc37d452f250ce3fb402a1655ca971","relate_stocks":{"09992":"泡泡玛特"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757274","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2575576968","content_text":"10月16日，泡泡玛特盘初涨超4%！摩根大通上调其评级至“增持”！热门IP持续强劲+估值吸引力显著提升。摩根大通认为泡泡玛特不仅通过Labubu的持续火爆和“星星人”的成功证明了其并非依赖单一IP，更通过全球化布局和强大的定价权展现了其抵御外部风险的能力。当前20倍的2026年预期市盈率，相较于其高增长前景，估值颇具吸引力。摩根大通认为，泡泡玛特的基本面并未改变，反而更加强劲，而市场的恐慌提供了一个绝佳的配置时机。追风交易台消息，10月15日摩根大通发表研报，将泡泡玛特评级从\"中性\"上调至\"增持\"，目标价从300港元上调至320港元。这一调整主要基于两大关键因素:一是热门IP持续强劲。尽管Labubu产能已较一季度提升10倍,但Labubu 3.0和Mini Labubu在所有地区仍处于售罄状态。此外，新IP\"星星人\"快速崛起，预计将贡献2027年销售额的8%。二是估值吸引力显著提升。股价较8月高点回调24%，而同期恒生指数上涨7%，当前按摩根大通预测仅20倍2026年市盈率，风险回报比更具吸引力。研报强调泡泡玛特不仅通过Labubu的持续火爆和“星星人”的成功证明了其并非依赖单一IP，更通过全球化布局和强大的定价权展现了其抵御外部风险的能力。核心引擎Labubu，产能猛增10倍，依旧供不应求Labubu的惊人热度是支撑泡泡玛特增长的核心引擎。根据摩根大通的观察，即便公司已将Labubu的产能相较于2025年第一季度提升了整整10倍，其Labubu 3.0和Mini Labubu系列产品在所有销售点仍然处于售罄状态。这直接粉碎了市场对于其需求可持续性的疑虑。二级市场的价格是衡量IP热度的晴雨表。数据显示，10月9日发售的万圣节“Why So Serious”毛绒系列中，Labubu款在二手市场上的转售价格溢价高达290%。此外，公司计划于12月发布“Labubu & Friends”动画，并于2026年3月或4月推出Labubu 4.0，这些都将成为未来增长的催化剂。新星“星星人”崛起，验证IP矩阵多元化能力比Labubu的持续火爆更让投资者振奋的，是新IP的成功孵化。泡泡玛特的新IP“星星人”（Twinkle Twinkle）正迅速成为一个新的增长动力。在10月9日发售的万圣节系列中，包含5个IP（Labubu、星星人、Molly、Dimoo和Hacipupu）的产品在主流线上平台于数分钟内售罄。值得关注的是，该系列中，“星星人”的二级市场溢价高达130%，仅次于Labubu的290%，但远高于其他IP（-18%至+26%）。摩根大通认为，这表明“星星人”正在吸引其“真实的粉丝群”，而不仅仅是消费者在买不到Labubu时的替代品。基于此强劲表现，摩根大通预测“星星人”将在2027年贡献公司总销售额的8%，与Skullpanda、Molly和Crybaby等成熟大IP（预计均为8-9%）并驾齐驱，而Labubu的贡献预计为35%。这有力地证明了泡泡玛特强大的IP发掘和商业化能力，以及通过IP矩阵多元化维持长期增长的战略正在成功落地。市场过度悲观？基本面强劲，估值已具吸引力泡泡玛特股价从近期高点335.40港元下跌24%至254港元，而同期恒生指数却上涨了7%。（今年以来泡泡玛特与恒生指数走势对比）摩根大通认为，这种剧烈的相对弱势表现表明，投资者已经建立了过度保守的预期。然而，公司的基本面依旧强劲。基于Labubu和新IP的强劲销售势头，摩根大通将公司2025至2027年的盈利预测上调了5-7%。调整后，预计泡泡玛特2025年销售额和调整后盈利将分别同比增长165%和276%，2026年将继续同比增长28%和29%。在强劲增长预期的支撑下，目前基于摩根大通预测的2026年市盈率仅为20倍。这一估值水平相较于其他增长质量较低的消费品公司，展现出更有利的风险回报。全球化供应链加速对于投资者普遍担忧的全球贸易摩擦带来的关税风险，摩根大通认为其对泡泡玛特的财务影响将是有限的。首先，泡泡玛特已为2025年第四季度的购物季准备了库存，可应对近期关税波动。其次，公司拥有直接提价的权利以对冲成本上升。事实上，公司在2025年4月已成功在海外市场进行过一轮提价，盲盒价格上调12%（从17美元至19美元），毛绒玩具上调27%（从22美元至28美元）。摩根大通测算，泡泡玛特仅需提价约15%即可完全抵消美洲市场关税对毛利的影响。更重要的是，为了支撑长期全球扩张，泡泡玛特正在规划全球六大制造中心（中国4个，海外2个）。摩根大通估计，美洲市场销售贡献将从2025年的约21%提升至2027年的约28%，海外业务对集团收益的贡献将在2027年接近60%，全球化布局的重要性日益凸显。摩根大通预计，关税不确定性的加剧，反而会促使公司加速其供应链的全球化布局，从而在根本上降低地缘政治风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":489032376328384,"gmtCreate":1760419847375,"gmtModify":1760419849172,"author":{"id":"3546647833104598","authorId":"3546647833104598","name":"BAYMAXHIT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d15f525cfa39964bc3e1c2e815fae205","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546647833104598","authorIdStr":"3546647833104598"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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入场好机会","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/509511702978584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":489743066218960,"gmtCreate":1760593552719,"gmtModify":1760593555185,"author":{"id":"3546647833104598","authorId":"3546647833104598","name":"BAYMAXHIT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d15f525cfa39964bc3e1c2e815fae205","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546647833104598","idStr":"3546647833104598"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"笑死，前几天摩根大通调为中性，今天就调成增持","listText":"笑死，前几天摩根大通调为中性，今天就调成增持","text":"笑死，前几天摩根大通调为中性，今天就调成增持","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/489743066218960","repostId":"2575576968","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2575576968","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1760577026,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2575576968?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-16 09:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"摩根大通上调泡泡玛特至“增持”！热门IP持续强劲+估值吸引力显著提升","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2575576968","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根大通认为泡泡玛特不仅通过Labubu的持续火爆和“星星人”的成功证明了其并非依赖单一IP，更通过全球化布局和强大的定价权展现了其抵御外部风险的能力。当前20倍的2026年预期市盈率，相较于其高增长前景，估值颇具吸引力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>10月16日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>盘初涨超4%！摩根大通上调其评级至“增持”！热门IP持续强劲+估值吸引力显著提升。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04d1c8a13b0a08d1cf6da870f8f936a0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><blockquote><p>摩根大通认为泡泡玛特不仅通过Labubu的持续火爆和“星星人”的成功证明了其并非依赖单一IP，更通过全球化布局和强大的定价权展现了其抵御外部风险的能力。当前20倍的2026年预期市盈率，相较于其高增长前景，估值颇具吸引力。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根大通认为，泡泡玛特的基本面并未改变，反而更加强劲，而市场的恐慌提供了一个绝佳的配置时机。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">追风交易台消息，10月15日摩根大通发表研报，将泡泡玛特评级从&#34;中性&#34;上调至&#34;增持&#34;，目标价从300港元上调至320港元。这一调整主要基于两大关键因素:</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>一是热门IP持续强劲</strong>。尽管Labubu产能已较一季度提升10倍,但Labubu 3.0和Mini Labubu在所有地区仍处于售罄状态。此外，新IP&#34;星星人&#34;快速崛起，预计将贡献2027年销售额的8%。</p></li><li><p><strong>二是估值吸引力显著提升</strong>。股价较8月高点回调24%，而同期恒生指数上涨7%，当前按摩根大通预测仅20倍2026年市盈率，风险回报比更具吸引力。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报强调泡泡玛特不仅通过Labubu的持续火爆和“星星人”的成功证明了其并非依赖单一IP，更通过全球化布局和强大的定价权展现了其抵御外部风险的能力。</p><h2 id=\"labubu-10\">核心引擎Labubu，产能猛增10倍，依旧供不应求</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Labubu的惊人热度是支撑泡泡玛特增长的核心引擎。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据摩根大通的观察，即便公司已将Labubu的产能相较于2025年第一季度提升了整整10倍，其Labubu 3.0和Mini Labubu系列产品在所有销售点仍然处于售罄状态。这直接粉碎了市场对于其需求可持续性的疑虑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>二级市场的价格是衡量IP热度的晴雨表。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据显示，10月9日发售的万圣节“Why So Serious”毛绒系列中，Labubu款在二手市场上的转售价格溢价高达290%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，公司计划于12月发布“Labubu &amp; Friends”动画，并于2026年3月或4月推出Labubu 4.0，这些都将成为未来增长的催化剂。</p><h2 id=\"ip\">新星“星星人”崛起，验证IP矩阵多元化能力</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">比Labubu的持续火爆更让投资者振奋的，是新IP的成功孵化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">泡泡玛特的新IP“星星人”（Twinkle Twinkle）正迅速成为一个新的增长动力。在10月9日发售的万圣节系列中，包含5个IP（Labubu、星星人、Molly、Dimoo和Hacipupu）的产品在主流线上平台于数分钟内售罄。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得关注的是，该系列中，“星星人”的二级市场溢价高达130%，仅次于Labubu的290%，但远高于其他IP（-18%至+26%）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>摩根大通认为，这表明“星星人”正在吸引其“真实的粉丝群”，而不仅仅是消费者在买不到Labubu时的替代品。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">基于此强劲表现，<strong>摩根大通预测“星星人”将在2027年贡献公司总销售额的8%</strong>，与Skullpanda、Molly和Crybaby等成熟大IP（预计均为8-9%）并驾齐驱，<strong>而Labubu的贡献预计为35%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这有力地证明了泡泡玛特强大的IP发掘和商业化能力，以及通过IP矩阵多元化维持长期增长的战略正在成功落地。</p><h2 id=\"c2ee42cc\">市场过度悲观？基本面强劲，估值已具吸引力</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">泡泡玛特股价从近期高点335.40港元下跌24%至254港元，而同期恒生指数却上涨了7%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94fcb8bde79b71b4c54f5d7af1efe240\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"325\"/></p><p>（今年以来泡泡玛特与恒生指数走势对比）</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根大通认为，这种剧烈的相对弱势表现表明，投资者已经建立了过度保守的预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，公司的基本面依旧强劲。基于Labubu和新IP的强劲销售势头，摩根大通将公司2025至2027年的盈利预测上调了5-7%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>调整后，预计泡泡玛特2025年销售额和调整后盈利将分别同比增长165%和276%，2026年将继续同比增长28%和29%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在强劲增长预期的支撑下，<strong>目前基于摩根大通预测的2026年市盈率仅为20倍</strong>。这一估值水平相较于其他增长质量较低的消费品公司，展现出更有利的风险回报。</p><h2 id=\"806f3eb4\">全球化供应链加速</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于投资者普遍担忧的全球贸易摩擦带来的关税风险，摩根大通认为其对泡泡玛特的财务影响将是有限的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>首先，泡泡玛特已为2025年第四季度的购物季准备了库存，可应对近期关税波动。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>其次，公司拥有直接提价的权利以对冲成本上升。</strong>事实上，公司在2025年4月已成功在海外市场进行过一轮提价，盲盒价格上调12%（从17美元至19美元），毛绒玩具上调27%（从22美元至28美元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根大通测算，泡泡玛特仅需提价约15%即可完全抵消美洲市场关税对毛利的影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>更重要的是，为了支撑长期全球扩张，泡泡玛特正在规划全球六大制造中心（中国4个，海外2个）。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根大通估计，美洲市场销售贡献将从2025年的约21%提升至2027年的约28%，海外业务对集团收益的贡献将在2027年接近60%，全球化布局的重要性日益凸显。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根大通预计，关税不确定性的加剧，反而会促使公司加速其供应链的全球化布局，从而在根本上降低地缘政治风险。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根大通上调泡泡玛特至“增持”！热门IP持续强劲+估值吸引力显著提升</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根大通上调泡泡玛特至“增持”！热门IP持续强劲+估值吸引力显著提升\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-16 09:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757274><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>10月16日，泡泡玛特盘初涨超4%！摩根大通上调其评级至“增持”！热门IP持续强劲+估值吸引力显著提升。摩根大通认为泡泡玛特不仅通过Labubu的持续火爆和“星星人”的成功证明了其并非依赖单一IP，更通过全球化布局和强大的定价权展现了其抵御外部风险的能力。当前20倍的2026年预期市盈率，相较于其高增长前景，估值颇具吸引力。摩根大通认为，泡泡玛特的基本面并未改变，反而更加强劲，而市场的恐慌提供了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757274\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dc37d452f250ce3fb402a1655ca971","relate_stocks":{"09992":"泡泡玛特"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757274","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2575576968","content_text":"10月16日，泡泡玛特盘初涨超4%！摩根大通上调其评级至“增持”！热门IP持续强劲+估值吸引力显著提升。摩根大通认为泡泡玛特不仅通过Labubu的持续火爆和“星星人”的成功证明了其并非依赖单一IP，更通过全球化布局和强大的定价权展现了其抵御外部风险的能力。当前20倍的2026年预期市盈率，相较于其高增长前景，估值颇具吸引力。摩根大通认为，泡泡玛特的基本面并未改变，反而更加强劲，而市场的恐慌提供了一个绝佳的配置时机。追风交易台消息，10月15日摩根大通发表研报，将泡泡玛特评级从\"中性\"上调至\"增持\"，目标价从300港元上调至320港元。这一调整主要基于两大关键因素:一是热门IP持续强劲。尽管Labubu产能已较一季度提升10倍,但Labubu 3.0和Mini Labubu在所有地区仍处于售罄状态。此外，新IP\"星星人\"快速崛起，预计将贡献2027年销售额的8%。二是估值吸引力显著提升。股价较8月高点回调24%，而同期恒生指数上涨7%，当前按摩根大通预测仅20倍2026年市盈率，风险回报比更具吸引力。研报强调泡泡玛特不仅通过Labubu的持续火爆和“星星人”的成功证明了其并非依赖单一IP，更通过全球化布局和强大的定价权展现了其抵御外部风险的能力。核心引擎Labubu，产能猛增10倍，依旧供不应求Labubu的惊人热度是支撑泡泡玛特增长的核心引擎。根据摩根大通的观察，即便公司已将Labubu的产能相较于2025年第一季度提升了整整10倍，其Labubu 3.0和Mini Labubu系列产品在所有销售点仍然处于售罄状态。这直接粉碎了市场对于其需求可持续性的疑虑。二级市场的价格是衡量IP热度的晴雨表。数据显示，10月9日发售的万圣节“Why So Serious”毛绒系列中，Labubu款在二手市场上的转售价格溢价高达290%。此外，公司计划于12月发布“Labubu & Friends”动画，并于2026年3月或4月推出Labubu 4.0，这些都将成为未来增长的催化剂。新星“星星人”崛起，验证IP矩阵多元化能力比Labubu的持续火爆更让投资者振奋的，是新IP的成功孵化。泡泡玛特的新IP“星星人”（Twinkle Twinkle）正迅速成为一个新的增长动力。在10月9日发售的万圣节系列中，包含5个IP（Labubu、星星人、Molly、Dimoo和Hacipupu）的产品在主流线上平台于数分钟内售罄。值得关注的是，该系列中，“星星人”的二级市场溢价高达130%，仅次于Labubu的290%，但远高于其他IP（-18%至+26%）。摩根大通认为，这表明“星星人”正在吸引其“真实的粉丝群”，而不仅仅是消费者在买不到Labubu时的替代品。基于此强劲表现，摩根大通预测“星星人”将在2027年贡献公司总销售额的8%，与Skullpanda、Molly和Crybaby等成熟大IP（预计均为8-9%）并驾齐驱，而Labubu的贡献预计为35%。这有力地证明了泡泡玛特强大的IP发掘和商业化能力，以及通过IP矩阵多元化维持长期增长的战略正在成功落地。市场过度悲观？基本面强劲，估值已具吸引力泡泡玛特股价从近期高点335.40港元下跌24%至254港元，而同期恒生指数却上涨了7%。（今年以来泡泡玛特与恒生指数走势对比）摩根大通认为，这种剧烈的相对弱势表现表明，投资者已经建立了过度保守的预期。然而，公司的基本面依旧强劲。基于Labubu和新IP的强劲销售势头，摩根大通将公司2025至2027年的盈利预测上调了5-7%。调整后，预计泡泡玛特2025年销售额和调整后盈利将分别同比增长165%和276%，2026年将继续同比增长28%和29%。在强劲增长预期的支撑下，目前基于摩根大通预测的2026年市盈率仅为20倍。这一估值水平相较于其他增长质量较低的消费品公司，展现出更有利的风险回报。全球化供应链加速对于投资者普遍担忧的全球贸易摩擦带来的关税风险，摩根大通认为其对泡泡玛特的财务影响将是有限的。首先，泡泡玛特已为2025年第四季度的购物季准备了库存，可应对近期关税波动。其次，公司拥有直接提价的权利以对冲成本上升。事实上，公司在2025年4月已成功在海外市场进行过一轮提价，盲盒价格上调12%（从17美元至19美元），毛绒玩具上调27%（从22美元至28美元）。摩根大通测算，泡泡玛特仅需提价约15%即可完全抵消美洲市场关税对毛利的影响。更重要的是，为了支撑长期全球扩张，泡泡玛特正在规划全球六大制造中心（中国4个，海外2个）。摩根大通估计，美洲市场销售贡献将从2025年的约21%提升至2027年的约28%，海外业务对集团收益的贡献将在2027年接近60%，全球化布局的重要性日益凸显。摩根大通预计，关税不确定性的加剧，反而会促使公司加速其供应链的全球化布局，从而在根本上降低地缘政治风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}