敏敏猪__的个人主页 - 老虎社区

敏敏猪__

敏敏猪__

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2021-12-22

$特斯拉(TSLA)$最开始频繁操作是在去年10月…当时刚入市不久，不懂事。最后一次385买完就躺平了。今年过年，跌下去一点，想着加仓，不料急跌，止损了，虽然避过了当时的暴跌，但是也错过了后面的暴涨[笑哭] 我觉得对于一个看好的股票，不需要天天做T吧，放着就好了，要做T就做期权呗，正股T那一点点…没啥意思…昨晚是不小心睡着，忘了调闹钟起来卖期权[捂脸] 一般特斯拉的期权我不敢留过夜…

2023-02-22

心得分享，趋势出来了再下手，不要赌😷每次就买1手练练，吃得消

2021-12-14

$特斯拉(TSLA)$挂单888加仓，不知道有没有机会[开心]

2021-07-04

这…腾讯支付宝美团百度啥的啥时候下架？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-11-17

$特斯拉(TSLA)$一觉醒来惊呆了…

2020-11-04

$The GEO Group, Inc.(GEO)$终于回血[流泪]早上还是-10%…

2020-11-30

$特斯拉(TSLA)$没有重仓是我的失误[流泪]

2020-06-05

没什么美联储印钱美股涨，咱们印人民币的时候涨多少？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-02-11

$FB 20220218 227.5 PUT$ 见好就收[捂脸]

2021-10-21

$特斯拉(TSLA)$冲鸭[开心]

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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剁手","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e8ab89852fe252a27ecab43d3b59cbd","width":"1080","height":"2132"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628575506","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628575237,"gmtCreate":1673372688829,"gmtModify":1673378394964,"author":{"id":"3546454679808505","authorId":"3546454679808505","name":"敏敏猪__","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58aef48920132ac7fcbf055ca967ddd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546454679808505","idStr":"3546454679808505"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a> &nbsp;原来安卓手机可以看那么细的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a> &nbsp;原来安卓手机可以看那么细的","text":"$TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL$ $TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL$ 原来安卓手机可以看那么细的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f873d474e4c2514d7ed8313fb00a24e","width":"1080","height":"2132"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628575237","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628571853,"gmtCreate":1673367970272,"gmtModify":1673367972521,"author":{"id":"3546454679808505","authorId":"3546454679808505","name":"敏敏猪__","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58aef48920132ac7fcbf055ca967ddd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546454679808505","idStr":"3546454679808505"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>唉，我居然又来了…","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>唉，我居然又来了…","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 唉，我居然又来了…","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70130c8ff0f3f1f8cb5d4107dc0776d9","width":"2224","height":"1335"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628571853","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":611144884,"gmtCreate":1650377412717,"gmtModify":1650377486349,"author":{"id":"3546454679808505","authorId":"3546454679808505","name":"敏敏猪__","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58aef48920132ac7fcbf055ca967ddd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546454679808505","idStr":"3546454679808505"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/RCL 20220429 84.0 CALL\">$RCL 20220429 84.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>所以我对A股没有什么感觉…","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/RCL 20220429 84.0 CALL\">$RCL 20220429 84.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>所以我对A股没有什么感觉…","text":"$RCL 20220429 84.0 CALL$ 所以我对A股没有什么感觉…","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2644818f95eb390e2ac677667348be","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/611144884","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":613705683,"gmtCreate":1650031337851,"gmtModify":1650031337851,"author":{"id":"3546454679808505","authorId":"3546454679808505","name":"敏敏猪__","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58aef48920132ac7fcbf055ca967ddd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546454679808505","idStr":"3546454679808505"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"他去年卖Costco的时候股价300多，然后涨到600了。","listText":"他去年卖Costco的时候股价300多，然后涨到600了。","text":"他去年卖Costco的时候股价300多，然后涨到600了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/613705683","repostId":"1145962631","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145962631","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1650029102,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145962631?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-15 21:25","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"芒格真的卖了阿里？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145962631","media":"e公司","summary":"于是，芒格大幅卖出亏损股、98岁芒格兵败阿里、芒格廉颇老矣尚能饭否，如此这般的标题，立即充斥了资本市场。2021年一季度，芒格主导下的每日期刊公司，首次买入阿里巴巴ADR。在几乎直线的下跌中，每日期刊公司在2021年三季度和四季度加仓了阿里巴巴。随后，在2022年2月的每日期刊公司年会上，芒格夸赞了阿里巴巴公司，说它是合适的投资标的，投资这个公司让他感到舒适。两种可能那么，芒格真的卖了阿里巴巴吗？","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>芒格辞职的时间是3月28日，而4月11日每日期刊公司提交的公告，显示的是3月31日的持仓数据。在3天的时间里，对于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>这样一只交易非常活跃的ADR来说，芒格的继任者有足够的时间，把仓位砍掉一半。这种可能性，我们将它称为“每日期刊公司变了”。</b></blockquote><p><b>作为沃伦·巴菲特一生的搭档，出生于1924年的查理·芒格的另一个身份，是每日期刊公司（Daily Journal）董事长。从1977年53岁上任，到2022年98岁辞职，芒格在这个职位上忙碌了45年。</b></p><p>作为巴菲特的搭档，芒格的投资方法虽然也是正宗的价值投资，但是在细节上和巴菲特不尽相同。简单来说，芒格的投资风格就是持股更加集中，对估值不是很看重，但对企业长期前景比较关心。这种投资方法，导致投资组合的短期波动更大，同时长期收益率可能也更高。</p><p>由于巴菲特并没有参与每日期刊公司的投资，因此从每日期刊公司的投资头寸上，人们往往能对芒格的股票投资一探究竟。</p><p><b>不过，花有重开日，人物再少年。再好的投资职业生涯，也终究有结束的一天。2022年3月28日，98岁高龄的芒格辞去了每日期刊公司董事长职务。</b></p><p><b>然而，就在两周以后的4月11日，市场上爆出了一个大新闻：每日期刊公司在2022年一季度，卖出了50%的阿里巴巴ADR（美国存托凭证）持股，出现大幅亏损。</b></p><p>于是，芒格大幅卖出亏损股、98岁芒格兵败阿里、芒格廉颇老矣尚能饭否，如此这般的标题，立即充斥了资本市场。</p><p><b>但是，芒格真的卖了阿里吗？</b></p><p><b>发生了什么？</b></p><p>2021年一季度，芒格主导下的每日期刊公司，首次买入阿里巴巴ADR。随后，阿里巴巴股价一路下跌，从2021年一季度的250美元附近，一直跌到了2022年一季度的100美元附近。</p><p>在几乎直线的下跌中，每日期刊公司在2021年三季度和四季度加仓了阿里巴巴。随后，在2022年2月的每日期刊公司年会上，芒格夸赞了阿里巴巴公司，说它是合适的投资标的，投资这个公司让他感到舒适。</p><p>但是，到了2022年3月28日，由于某种未公告的原因，芒格辞去了每日期刊公司董事长职务，仅继续担任公司董事。到了4月11日，每日期刊公司公告显示，截至2022年3月31日，公司所持有的阿里巴巴ADR，仅有之前持仓的一半。</p><p><b>两种可能</b></p><p>那么，芒格真的卖了阿里巴巴吗？细心的读者会发现，这件事其实有两种可能。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72da4b29cb471c1d0f387e4b471ba5b0\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>供图：赵乃育</p><p>第一种可能，是芒格确实老糊涂了，在股票大幅亏损后就减仓了。我们不能否定这种可能，毕竟智慧的芒格自己就曾经说过，“不要迷信那些优秀的人，再优秀的人都有犯错的时候”。要知道，即使是拿破仑也曾打过败仗。这第一种可能，我们将它称为“芒格犯傻了”。</p><p>但是，在第一种可能之外，还有一种可能，会让我们以为自己看到的“芒格犯傻了”，完全不是事情的真相。</p><p>细心的读者一定已经发现，从以上描述的时间线里，芒格辞职的时间是3月28日，而4月11日每日期刊公司提交的公告，显示的是3月31日的持仓数据。</p><p><b>在3天的时间里，对于阿里巴巴这样一只交易非常活跃的ADR来说，芒格的继任者有足够的时间，把仓位砍掉一半。这第二种可能性，我们将它称为“每日期刊公司变了”。</b></p><p>那么，美国市场的流动性，支持这种“3天砍仓一半”的交易吗？根据每日期刊公司披露的数据，其持有的阿里巴巴ADR，在减仓之前最高达到60万份，在2022年一季度末则为30万份，减持了30万份。</p><p>对于3天30万份的减持量，阿里巴巴的ADR交易量能够容纳吗？在2022年一季度，阿里巴巴ADR的日均成交量，是3212万份。而在芒格卸任以后的3个交易日（3月29日到31日），总成交量是8768万份。做过交易的人都知道，对于如此巨大的交易量，想要在3天里减持30万份，易如反掌。所以，“每日期刊公司变了”这种可能性，是完全存在的。</p><p><b>芒格犯傻了？</b></p><p>每日期刊公司为什么减仓阿里巴巴，背后的原因到底是“芒格犯傻了”还是“每日期刊公司变了”，除非有每日期刊公司或者芒格自己的声明，否则这件事也许会永远成为一个难解之谜。</p><p>从主观上，我个人更偏向“每日期刊公司变了”这种可能，因为“芒格犯傻了”不符合常理。我很难相信一位一辈子聪明、目光长远的投资者，居然在如此行事近百年以后，会突然变成一个“2月份还说看好公司、3月份就卖出股票”的人。但是，根据现有的公告，我也没有证据完全否定“芒格犯傻了”的可能性。</p><p>但是，为什么在新闻发生以后，许多人会立即相信“芒格犯傻了”？这里面有两个原因，第一是人们不细致，没有发现芒格辞职日期和公告日期之差（尽管只有3天）。第二个原因，则更加深刻。</p><p><b>对于许多人来说，价值投资所倡导的“目光放长远、不要看短期”的理念，是和他们喜欢投机的爱好相违背的。但是糟糕的是，巴菲特、芒格这些价值投资者不停的赚钱，同时投机又很难带来长期收益。</b></p><p>这时候，聪明的人会放下自己的投机，跟随价值投资的脚步。但是对于那些放纵自己感受的人来说，他们更愿意相信自己的投机是对的、价值投资的理念才是错的。在这时候，“芒格犯傻了”的新闻，恰好迎合了这些人的心理：价值投资的理念不对，我应该继续投机才是正道。可以说，这是一场恰到好处的心理按摩。</p><p><b>看见的就是真的？</b></p><p>每日期刊公司减持阿里巴巴ADR，当这件事被粗心的人们第一眼看到时，他们立即相信自己的判断“芒格犯傻了”，而没有仔细思考另一种可能“每日期刊公司变了”。在这里，人们错误地认为，“我看到的就是真的”。</p><p>但是，看到的并不一定是真的。在中国的资本市场上，我曾经亲身经历过另一次所见并非真相。那次经历，真相比芒格卖阿里更加隐晦：从公开的信息，我们甚至看不到真相存在的可能。</p><p>在2007年大牛市到2008年大熊市的转换中，我认识的一位价值投资者，居然没有在2007年市场极其昂贵的时候，做出太多的减仓操作，以至于在2008年损失惨重。根据公告，他一直是基金的基金经理。那么，2007年牛市的顶点那么贵，上百倍PE的股票比比皆是，作为重视估值的价值投资者，他怎么会不卖呢？</p><p>实际上的情况，比公告显示出来的更加复杂。这位投资者虽然是投资经理，但是他的领导——也就是公司的投资总监和总经理，却喜欢越级指挥他的投资决策。结果，2007年到2008年的交易，其实大多根本不是出自他的本意。</p><p>所以说，在资本市场上，当我们以为自己看清楚了一个事件、一张财务报表、一个公告的时候，一定要长个心眼，问问自己这件事合理吗？如果答案是否定的，那么即使我们自己看到了某件事，也不一定代表我们就看清了事情的真相。</p><p>不过，人毕竟是依靠感官体验世界的，“眼见为实”的思想深深刻在我们的基因里。连中国历史上的圣人孔子，都曾经感叹“看到的事情居然不是真的”。这里，就让我们来看一个《吕氏春秋》中记载的故事。</p><p>有一次，孔子和弟子们在列国之间穿行时，倒霉找不到粮食吃，上顿接不上下顿，七天都没有饭吃。正在这时，孔子弟子中品德第一的颜回，不知道从哪里找来了一点米。大家很开心，颜回就拿着米去做饭。</p><p>结果，颜回一个人忙做饭，饭快熟的时候孔子正好路过，看到颜回从锅里自己捞饭吃。在儒家的礼仪中，这样“自己先吃不管大家”的行为，是非常不道德的。</p><p>按理说，这样的事情不会发生在以品德著称的颜回身上啊？但是，这又是孔子亲眼所见，怎能不真呢？不过，大家毕竟都饿了好多天，也许颜回也守不住自己的道德准绳，先吃为快了？</p><p>等到吃完饭，孔子委婉地问颜回是怎么回事，这才知道事情的真相。原来，颜回煮饭的时候，发现一块煤灰飞到了饭里。把这块沾了灰的饭扔了吧，实在可惜，可是端出来给大家吃吧，又会让人糟心。于是，颜回干脆自己把脏的那块饭拿出来吃掉。没曾想，正好给路过的孔子看见。</p><p>得知事情原由后，孔子大为感叹：“所信者目也，而目犹不可信。所恃者心也，而心犹不足恃。弟子记之：知人固不易矣。”我们眼睛看到的不一定是真的，心里想明白的不一定是对的，我们要牢记，把真相搞明白实在是太难了啊！</p><p>假作真时真亦假，无为有处有还无。作为一代价值投资大师，芒格给人们留下过许许多多睿智的思想。对于这些思想，他经常喜欢说一句总结性的话：“我的剑只留给能挥舞它的人。”</p><p><b>现在，当面对“芒格犯傻了”和“每日期刊公司变了”两个可能的真相时，我亲爱的读者，你是怎样想的呢？究竟哪一种想法，才能让我们挥舞起芒格的剑呢？</b></p></body></html>","source":"LHCJ1","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>芒格真的卖了阿里？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n芒格真的卖了阿里？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-15 21:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SgyrrtKXXnDeioPtpTMGcw><strong>e公司</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>芒格辞职的时间是3月28日，而4月11日每日期刊公司提交的公告，显示的是3月31日的持仓数据。在3天的时间里，对于阿里巴巴这样一只交易非常活跃的ADR来说，芒格的继任者有足够的时间，把仓位砍掉一半。这种可能性，我们将它称为“每日期刊公司变了”。作为沃伦·巴菲特一生的搭档，出生于1924年的查理·芒格的另一个身份，是每日期刊公司（Daily Journal）董事长。从1977年53岁上任，到2022...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SgyrrtKXXnDeioPtpTMGcw\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72da4b29cb471c1d0f387e4b471ba5b0","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SgyrrtKXXnDeioPtpTMGcw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145962631","content_text":"芒格辞职的时间是3月28日，而4月11日每日期刊公司提交的公告，显示的是3月31日的持仓数据。在3天的时间里，对于阿里巴巴这样一只交易非常活跃的ADR来说，芒格的继任者有足够的时间，把仓位砍掉一半。这种可能性，我们将它称为“每日期刊公司变了”。作为沃伦·巴菲特一生的搭档，出生于1924年的查理·芒格的另一个身份，是每日期刊公司（Daily Journal）董事长。从1977年53岁上任，到2022年98岁辞职，芒格在这个职位上忙碌了45年。作为巴菲特的搭档，芒格的投资方法虽然也是正宗的价值投资，但是在细节上和巴菲特不尽相同。简单来说，芒格的投资风格就是持股更加集中，对估值不是很看重，但对企业长期前景比较关心。这种投资方法，导致投资组合的短期波动更大，同时长期收益率可能也更高。由于巴菲特并没有参与每日期刊公司的投资，因此从每日期刊公司的投资头寸上，人们往往能对芒格的股票投资一探究竟。不过，花有重开日，人物再少年。再好的投资职业生涯，也终究有结束的一天。2022年3月28日，98岁高龄的芒格辞去了每日期刊公司董事长职务。然而，就在两周以后的4月11日，市场上爆出了一个大新闻：每日期刊公司在2022年一季度，卖出了50%的阿里巴巴ADR（美国存托凭证）持股，出现大幅亏损。于是，芒格大幅卖出亏损股、98岁芒格兵败阿里、芒格廉颇老矣尚能饭否，如此这般的标题，立即充斥了资本市场。但是，芒格真的卖了阿里吗？发生了什么？2021年一季度，芒格主导下的每日期刊公司，首次买入阿里巴巴ADR。随后，阿里巴巴股价一路下跌，从2021年一季度的250美元附近，一直跌到了2022年一季度的100美元附近。在几乎直线的下跌中，每日期刊公司在2021年三季度和四季度加仓了阿里巴巴。随后，在2022年2月的每日期刊公司年会上，芒格夸赞了阿里巴巴公司，说它是合适的投资标的，投资这个公司让他感到舒适。但是，到了2022年3月28日，由于某种未公告的原因，芒格辞去了每日期刊公司董事长职务，仅继续担任公司董事。到了4月11日，每日期刊公司公告显示，截至2022年3月31日，公司所持有的阿里巴巴ADR，仅有之前持仓的一半。两种可能那么，芒格真的卖了阿里巴巴吗？细心的读者会发现，这件事其实有两种可能。供图：赵乃育第一种可能，是芒格确实老糊涂了，在股票大幅亏损后就减仓了。我们不能否定这种可能，毕竟智慧的芒格自己就曾经说过，“不要迷信那些优秀的人，再优秀的人都有犯错的时候”。要知道，即使是拿破仑也曾打过败仗。这第一种可能，我们将它称为“芒格犯傻了”。但是，在第一种可能之外，还有一种可能，会让我们以为自己看到的“芒格犯傻了”，完全不是事情的真相。细心的读者一定已经发现，从以上描述的时间线里，芒格辞职的时间是3月28日，而4月11日每日期刊公司提交的公告，显示的是3月31日的持仓数据。在3天的时间里，对于阿里巴巴这样一只交易非常活跃的ADR来说，芒格的继任者有足够的时间，把仓位砍掉一半。这第二种可能性，我们将它称为“每日期刊公司变了”。那么，美国市场的流动性，支持这种“3天砍仓一半”的交易吗？根据每日期刊公司披露的数据，其持有的阿里巴巴ADR，在减仓之前最高达到60万份，在2022年一季度末则为30万份，减持了30万份。对于3天30万份的减持量，阿里巴巴的ADR交易量能够容纳吗？在2022年一季度，阿里巴巴ADR的日均成交量，是3212万份。而在芒格卸任以后的3个交易日（3月29日到31日），总成交量是8768万份。做过交易的人都知道，对于如此巨大的交易量，想要在3天里减持30万份，易如反掌。所以，“每日期刊公司变了”这种可能性，是完全存在的。芒格犯傻了？每日期刊公司为什么减仓阿里巴巴，背后的原因到底是“芒格犯傻了”还是“每日期刊公司变了”，除非有每日期刊公司或者芒格自己的声明，否则这件事也许会永远成为一个难解之谜。从主观上，我个人更偏向“每日期刊公司变了”这种可能，因为“芒格犯傻了”不符合常理。我很难相信一位一辈子聪明、目光长远的投资者，居然在如此行事近百年以后，会突然变成一个“2月份还说看好公司、3月份就卖出股票”的人。但是，根据现有的公告，我也没有证据完全否定“芒格犯傻了”的可能性。但是，为什么在新闻发生以后，许多人会立即相信“芒格犯傻了”？这里面有两个原因，第一是人们不细致，没有发现芒格辞职日期和公告日期之差（尽管只有3天）。第二个原因，则更加深刻。对于许多人来说，价值投资所倡导的“目光放长远、不要看短期”的理念，是和他们喜欢投机的爱好相违背的。但是糟糕的是，巴菲特、芒格这些价值投资者不停的赚钱，同时投机又很难带来长期收益。这时候，聪明的人会放下自己的投机，跟随价值投资的脚步。但是对于那些放纵自己感受的人来说，他们更愿意相信自己的投机是对的、价值投资的理念才是错的。在这时候，“芒格犯傻了”的新闻，恰好迎合了这些人的心理：价值投资的理念不对，我应该继续投机才是正道。可以说，这是一场恰到好处的心理按摩。看见的就是真的？每日期刊公司减持阿里巴巴ADR，当这件事被粗心的人们第一眼看到时，他们立即相信自己的判断“芒格犯傻了”，而没有仔细思考另一种可能“每日期刊公司变了”。在这里，人们错误地认为，“我看到的就是真的”。但是，看到的并不一定是真的。在中国的资本市场上，我曾经亲身经历过另一次所见并非真相。那次经历，真相比芒格卖阿里更加隐晦：从公开的信息，我们甚至看不到真相存在的可能。在2007年大牛市到2008年大熊市的转换中，我认识的一位价值投资者，居然没有在2007年市场极其昂贵的时候，做出太多的减仓操作，以至于在2008年损失惨重。根据公告，他一直是基金的基金经理。那么，2007年牛市的顶点那么贵，上百倍PE的股票比比皆是，作为重视估值的价值投资者，他怎么会不卖呢？实际上的情况，比公告显示出来的更加复杂。这位投资者虽然是投资经理，但是他的领导——也就是公司的投资总监和总经理，却喜欢越级指挥他的投资决策。结果，2007年到2008年的交易，其实大多根本不是出自他的本意。所以说，在资本市场上，当我们以为自己看清楚了一个事件、一张财务报表、一个公告的时候，一定要长个心眼，问问自己这件事合理吗？如果答案是否定的，那么即使我们自己看到了某件事，也不一定代表我们就看清了事情的真相。不过，人毕竟是依靠感官体验世界的，“眼见为实”的思想深深刻在我们的基因里。连中国历史上的圣人孔子，都曾经感叹“看到的事情居然不是真的”。这里，就让我们来看一个《吕氏春秋》中记载的故事。有一次，孔子和弟子们在列国之间穿行时，倒霉找不到粮食吃，上顿接不上下顿，七天都没有饭吃。正在这时，孔子弟子中品德第一的颜回，不知道从哪里找来了一点米。大家很开心，颜回就拿着米去做饭。结果，颜回一个人忙做饭，饭快熟的时候孔子正好路过，看到颜回从锅里自己捞饭吃。在儒家的礼仪中，这样“自己先吃不管大家”的行为，是非常不道德的。按理说，这样的事情不会发生在以品德著称的颜回身上啊？但是，这又是孔子亲眼所见，怎能不真呢？不过，大家毕竟都饿了好多天，也许颜回也守不住自己的道德准绳，先吃为快了？等到吃完饭，孔子委婉地问颜回是怎么回事，这才知道事情的真相。原来，颜回煮饭的时候，发现一块煤灰飞到了饭里。把这块沾了灰的饭扔了吧，实在可惜，可是端出来给大家吃吧，又会让人糟心。于是，颜回干脆自己把脏的那块饭拿出来吃掉。没曾想，正好给路过的孔子看见。得知事情原由后，孔子大为感叹：“所信者目也，而目犹不可信。所恃者心也，而心犹不足恃。弟子记之：知人固不易矣。”我们眼睛看到的不一定是真的，心里想明白的不一定是对的，我们要牢记，把真相搞明白实在是太难了啊！假作真时真亦假，无为有处有还无。作为一代价值投资大师，芒格给人们留下过许许多多睿智的思想。对于这些思想，他经常喜欢说一句总结性的话：“我的剑只留给能挥舞它的人。”现在，当面对“芒格犯傻了”和“每日期刊公司变了”两个可能的真相时，我亲爱的读者，你是怎样想的呢？究竟哪一种想法，才能让我们挥舞起芒格的剑呢？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619119744,"gmtCreate":1649084082608,"gmtModify":1649084082608,"author":{"id":"3546454679808505","authorId":"3546454679808505","name":"敏敏猪__","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58aef48920132ac7fcbf055ca967ddd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546454679808505","idStr":"3546454679808505"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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