立夏五月的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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2020-09-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$50日线还能破。咱就在280附近见[微笑]

2020-07-16

$蔚来(NIO)$把下方缺口补了呗

2020-09-17

$特斯拉(TSLA)$400？360？320？300？[财迷]

2020-09-16

$特斯拉(TSLA)$又要10个点？拉高出货[微笑]

2020-09-14

$特斯拉(TSLA)$小特特什么时候到450啊[看涨]

2020-08-18

$苹果(AAPL)$几号拆股啊

2020-08-18

$黄金主连(GCmain)$ 是不是老巴建仓了黄金股...

2020-09-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$老牛逼了。以为今天410都算多了[捂脸]

2020-09-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$月底能100吗[冷漠] 敢吗

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>把下方缺口补了呗","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$把下方缺口补了呗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/941804846","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":956382238,"gmtCreate":1591585178424,"gmtModify":1704195982465,"author":{"id":"3545287895487362","authorId":"3545287895487362","name":"立夏五月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3545287895487362","idStr":"3545287895487362"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"当然继续📈啦。下跌5%我倒立拉稀","listText":"当然继续📈啦。下跌5%我倒立拉稀","text":"当然继续📈啦。下跌5%我倒立拉稀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/956382238","repostId":"2041066399","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2041066399","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1591576027,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2041066399?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-08 08:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"非农数据“乌龙”后，本周市场怎么走？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2041066399","media":"格隆汇","summary":"美国劳工部劳工统计局（BLS）在数据公布后又发布了一个声明，解释新冠肺炎疫情对5月非农数据的影响，同时承认数据存在误差。","content":"<p><span>周末金融市场最劲爆的是</span><b>美国5月非农就业人口增加250.9万人，失业率从4月的14.7%下降到13.3%。预期是失业人口还将继续增加，失业率达到20%左右。</b><span>受消息刺激美国三大股指大幅走高，纳指更是创下历史新高。惊喜之后还有惊喜，</span><span><b>美国劳工部统计局（BLS）表示，数据统计存在误差。</b></span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c5e87425f96bf8ea94704c701242ef5\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"451\"></p>\n<p><span><b>数据好到自己都不信</b></span></p>\n<p>据报道，美国劳工部劳工统计局（BLS）在数据公布后又发布了一个声明，解释新冠肺炎疫情对5月非农数据的影响，同时承认数据存在误差。BLS发言人斯特恩伯格（Gary Steinberg） 确认，<b><span>劳工部的统计数据存在“错误分类误差”（Misclassification Error），没有将”停薪留职“人员归类为失业。</span></b></p>\n<p>斯特恩伯格根据BLS当天公布的声明回应，称如果将那些“有工作”但“因为一些原因没在工作”（not at work for other reason)的人也归类到“失业”类别的话，<b><span>5月美国的真实失业率将达到约16.4%，</span></b>比官方当天公布的13.3%要高。新冠疫情爆发以来，停薪留职是美国许多公司采取的削减成本的对策。统计局表示，<b><span>截至5月中旬，在总共失业的2100万美国人中，有1500万人（约占73%的比重）是处于停薪留职状态</span></b>，虽然停薪留职的本意是公司希望在经济好转后再召回员工，但现实是，经济复苏的过程或许并没有那么快，许多被停薪留职的人可能面临的是无限期的失业。劳工统计局称，由于人为分层抽样错误，可能严重低估了被归类为“临时裁员”的工人人数。<b><span>此前，BLS的数据也发生过计算误差的情况，</span></b>4月官方公布的失业率为14.7%，但后来BLS表示，如果将“错误分类误差”的因素计算在内的话，当月的真实失业率应在20%左右。美国前总统奥巴马领导下的经济顾问委员会（Council of Economic advisors）主席詹森•弗曼（Jason Furman）和哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院（Harvard's Kennedy School of Government）的同事威尔逊•鲍威尔三世（Wilson Powell III）计算出，<b><span>当你把这个统计误差抹去的话，实际失业率为17.1%。</span></b>就在劳工部统计局公布就业数据前两天，<span>私人薪资公司ADP取消了每月的员工参与调查。</span>通常，ADP的调查结果至少大致跟踪了BLS报告中的结果。不过，<span><b>这一次ADP显示，5月份私人薪资就业人数减少270万。相比之下，BLS的数据显示，私人薪资就业人数增加了310万。在这项统计中，近一半新增工作来自餐馆等休闲行业。</b></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afeb2bf9aee1ab326e30d5526c2cae69\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"438\"></p>\n<p><span><b>近期美国失业数据已经“失真”</b></span></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">国信证券</a>表示，美国劳工部自3月以来的就业报告中均指出：被调查者若由于疫情影响暂性脱离工作岗位，应填报为“暂时性失业”，但很显然并非所有调查者均按此填报，许多这种状况的劳动者填报为“被雇佣，但由于其他原因暂时停工”。根据美国劳工部估算，若将这部分劳动者划定为失业，<b><span>则3月、4月、5月的实际失业率将比公布数值分别提高1、5、3个百分点。</span></b>因此，由于疫情对就业的扰动，叠加美国政府对就业市场的支持政策，近期美国失业率数据已些许“失真”。从历史上看，非暂时性失业在劳动力人口的占比与失业率走势几乎完全同步，与4月相比，5月美国非暂时性失业人数增加了38.5万人，在劳动力人口的占比由4月的1.6%提升至1.9%，<b><span>这表明本月失业率的下降主要缘于经济解封，而非就业景气度的改善。这得益于巨额的财政和货币宽松，</span></b>当前美国企业债务风险尚未充分显露，随着宽松政策的边际递减，未来企业债违约大概率会增加，将对经济产生新一轮冲击，从而不利于就业市场的持续改善。在复工推进之下，我们认为短期内美国失业率可能延续小幅下降，但中长期就业状况很难持续大幅改善。</p>\n<p><span><b>看经济数据你就“输”了</b></span></p>\n<p>BLS公布数据存在误差时美股并没有收盘，但是三大股指涨幅丝毫不受影响。现在美股涨势已经完全脱离经济基本面，<b><span>数据好了要涨，数据差了美联储会出手”救“，更要涨。</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec448be4b2986196d804ca6d0f6b617\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"596\"></p>\n<p>安联首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃尔-埃利安表示，许多人对股价与现实脱节的纪录感到失望，<span><b>但实际上这是一个可笑的心态。</b></span>“我理解那些押注道德风险的人。我理解那些押注美联储将提供支持的人。我不这样做。我认为那不是投资的好方法。我宁愿根据基本面进行投资“埃尔-埃利安说：“对那些人而言，基本面发生什么并不重要。企业盈利如何并不重要。经济增长如何并不重要，<b><span>因为美联储会买我想买的东西，这就是目前市场的心态。”</span></b>当前美国经济正经历比2008年更为严重的经济衰退，而不断增加的债务和美联储持续印刷美元可能意味着需要更长的时间来实现利率正常化，甚至引发严重的通胀风险。</p>\n<p><b><span>尽管美国各州陆续复工，但受疫情冲击以及抗议事件蔓延的影响，复工复产进度缓慢；</span></b>加之，失业人口中有近7成失业补助高于其失业前收入，尤其是餐饮服务和医疗助理等职业更为突出，这也会对复工产生拖累，经济短期复苏难。</p>\n<p>往前看，5月ISM和Markit制造业PMI指数仅小幅恢复至43.1和39.8，仍大幅低于枯荣线；据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>大数据统计，截止5月29日，美国零售活动、交通运输以及办公活动仍较基期下滑23%、36%和37%，生产、需求疲软态势加剧，美国二季度经济将进一步负增长。截止5月底美国周度经济指数再度下滑至-10.1%，4月以来平均跌幅为10%，经济将陷入衰退。</p>\n<p><b><span>现在美联储已经把将推向危机的政策推向了极致。</span></b>现在利率再次为零。一些分析人士说，负利率将是下一个目标，尽管鲍威尔此前重申不会使用这一工具。</p>\n<p><span><b>本周怎么走</b></span></p>\n<p>万神殿集团首席宏观经济学伊恩·谢泼德森在一份研究报告中写道，<b><span>劳工统计局的月度就业报告与其他数据相抵触是一个“谜”。</span></b></p>\n<p>市场预计，未来一周内标普500指数年内涨幅也将转为正值。目前，该指数年内跌幅仅为1.14%。</p>\n<p>汇市方面，美元指数上周一路下行并跌破97关口。美债、日元、黄金等传统避险资产也被市场看空。截至上周五收盘，纽约金价跌破1690美元关口。</p>\n<p>债市方面，美3个月期和10年期国债收益率利差一度拉开近80个基点，收益率曲线陡峭显示出债市对经济前景的乐观情绪改善。</p>\n<p>在欧洲市场，法国CAC 40指数、德国DAX指数累计涨逾10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数上涨6.71%。亚洲市场方面，日经225指数本周累计上涨4.49%，韩国综指累计大涨7.5%，澳大利亚标普200指数上涨4.22%。</p>\n<p>就政策刺激而言，中商智库首席研究员李建军认为，当前各国经济需要非常规政策刺激。例如，各国需要以补助形式给企业直接的现金支持，并采取非常规的量化宽松政策、购买企业债券等给企业以资金支持。此外，如何确保释放的资金更好更快地为实体经济服务而不是在金融体系里运转也是各国需要面对的问题。</p>\n<p>上周，欧洲央行曾超预期扩大宽松政策力度。本周，美联储议息决定将会公布。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>(28.11, 1.33, 4.97%)全球经济主管埃森·哈里斯预计，美联储官员可能会给出更多关于宽松政策的前瞻性指引。</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>非农数据“乌龙”后，本周市场怎么走？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n非农数据“乌龙”后，本周市场怎么走？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-08 08:27 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/379640><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周末金融市场最劲爆的是美国5月非农就业人口增加250.9万人，失业率从4月的14.7%下降到13.3%。预期是失业人口还将继续增加，失业率达到20%左右。受消息刺激美国三大股指大幅走高，纳指更是创下历史新高。惊喜之后还有惊喜，美国劳工部统计局（BLS）表示，数据统计存在误差。\n数据好到自己都不信\n据报道，美国劳工部劳工统计局（BLS）在数据公布后又发布了一个声明，解释新冠肺炎疫情对5月非农数据的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/379640\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4fc8b23b781bc79a14821182eb2b683","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/379640","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2041066399","content_text":"周末金融市场最劲爆的是美国5月非农就业人口增加250.9万人，失业率从4月的14.7%下降到13.3%。预期是失业人口还将继续增加，失业率达到20%左右。受消息刺激美国三大股指大幅走高，纳指更是创下历史新高。惊喜之后还有惊喜，美国劳工部统计局（BLS）表示，数据统计存在误差。\n数据好到自己都不信\n据报道，美国劳工部劳工统计局（BLS）在数据公布后又发布了一个声明，解释新冠肺炎疫情对5月非农数据的影响，同时承认数据存在误差。BLS发言人斯特恩伯格（Gary Steinberg） 确认，劳工部的统计数据存在“错误分类误差”（Misclassification Error），没有将”停薪留职“人员归类为失业。\n斯特恩伯格根据BLS当天公布的声明回应，称如果将那些“有工作”但“因为一些原因没在工作”（not at work for other reason)的人也归类到“失业”类别的话，5月美国的真实失业率将达到约16.4%，比官方当天公布的13.3%要高。新冠疫情爆发以来，停薪留职是美国许多公司采取的削减成本的对策。统计局表示，截至5月中旬，在总共失业的2100万美国人中，有1500万人（约占73%的比重）是处于停薪留职状态，虽然停薪留职的本意是公司希望在经济好转后再召回员工，但现实是，经济复苏的过程或许并没有那么快，许多被停薪留职的人可能面临的是无限期的失业。劳工统计局称，由于人为分层抽样错误，可能严重低估了被归类为“临时裁员”的工人人数。此前，BLS的数据也发生过计算误差的情况，4月官方公布的失业率为14.7%，但后来BLS表示，如果将“错误分类误差”的因素计算在内的话，当月的真实失业率应在20%左右。美国前总统奥巴马领导下的经济顾问委员会（Council of Economic advisors）主席詹森•弗曼（Jason Furman）和哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院（Harvard's Kennedy School of Government）的同事威尔逊•鲍威尔三世（Wilson Powell III）计算出，当你把这个统计误差抹去的话，实际失业率为17.1%。就在劳工部统计局公布就业数据前两天，私人薪资公司ADP取消了每月的员工参与调查。通常，ADP的调查结果至少大致跟踪了BLS报告中的结果。不过，这一次ADP显示，5月份私人薪资就业人数减少270万。相比之下，BLS的数据显示，私人薪资就业人数增加了310万。在这项统计中，近一半新增工作来自餐馆等休闲行业。\n\n近期美国失业数据已经“失真”\n国信证券表示，美国劳工部自3月以来的就业报告中均指出：被调查者若由于疫情影响暂性脱离工作岗位，应填报为“暂时性失业”，但很显然并非所有调查者均按此填报，许多这种状况的劳动者填报为“被雇佣，但由于其他原因暂时停工”。根据美国劳工部估算，若将这部分劳动者划定为失业，则3月、4月、5月的实际失业率将比公布数值分别提高1、5、3个百分点。因此，由于疫情对就业的扰动，叠加美国政府对就业市场的支持政策，近期美国失业率数据已些许“失真”。从历史上看，非暂时性失业在劳动力人口的占比与失业率走势几乎完全同步，与4月相比，5月美国非暂时性失业人数增加了38.5万人，在劳动力人口的占比由4月的1.6%提升至1.9%，这表明本月失业率的下降主要缘于经济解封，而非就业景气度的改善。这得益于巨额的财政和货币宽松，当前美国企业债务风险尚未充分显露，随着宽松政策的边际递减，未来企业债违约大概率会增加，将对经济产生新一轮冲击，从而不利于就业市场的持续改善。在复工推进之下，我们认为短期内美国失业率可能延续小幅下降，但中长期就业状况很难持续大幅改善。\n看经济数据你就“输”了\nBLS公布数据存在误差时美股并没有收盘，但是三大股指涨幅丝毫不受影响。现在美股涨势已经完全脱离经济基本面，数据好了要涨，数据差了美联储会出手”救“，更要涨。\n\n安联首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃尔-埃利安表示，许多人对股价与现实脱节的纪录感到失望，但实际上这是一个可笑的心态。“我理解那些押注道德风险的人。我理解那些押注美联储将提供支持的人。我不这样做。我认为那不是投资的好方法。我宁愿根据基本面进行投资“埃尔-埃利安说：“对那些人而言，基本面发生什么并不重要。企业盈利如何并不重要。经济增长如何并不重要，因为美联储会买我想买的东西，这就是目前市场的心态。”当前美国经济正经历比2008年更为严重的经济衰退，而不断增加的债务和美联储持续印刷美元可能意味着需要更长的时间来实现利率正常化，甚至引发严重的通胀风险。\n尽管美国各州陆续复工，但受疫情冲击以及抗议事件蔓延的影响，复工复产进度缓慢；加之，失业人口中有近7成失业补助高于其失业前收入，尤其是餐饮服务和医疗助理等职业更为突出，这也会对复工产生拖累，经济短期复苏难。\n往前看，5月ISM和Markit制造业PMI指数仅小幅恢复至43.1和39.8，仍大幅低于枯荣线；据谷歌大数据统计，截止5月29日，美国零售活动、交通运输以及办公活动仍较基期下滑23%、36%和37%，生产、需求疲软态势加剧，美国二季度经济将进一步负增长。截止5月底美国周度经济指数再度下滑至-10.1%，4月以来平均跌幅为10%，经济将陷入衰退。\n现在美联储已经把将推向危机的政策推向了极致。现在利率再次为零。一些分析人士说，负利率将是下一个目标，尽管鲍威尔此前重申不会使用这一工具。\n本周怎么走\n万神殿集团首席宏观经济学伊恩·谢泼德森在一份研究报告中写道，劳工统计局的月度就业报告与其他数据相抵触是一个“谜”。\n市场预计，未来一周内标普500指数年内涨幅也将转为正值。目前，该指数年内跌幅仅为1.14%。\n汇市方面，美元指数上周一路下行并跌破97关口。美债、日元、黄金等传统避险资产也被市场看空。截至上周五收盘，纽约金价跌破1690美元关口。\n债市方面，美3个月期和10年期国债收益率利差一度拉开近80个基点，收益率曲线陡峭显示出债市对经济前景的乐观情绪改善。\n在欧洲市场，法国CAC 40指数、德国DAX指数累计涨逾10%，英国富时100指数上涨6.71%。亚洲市场方面，日经225指数本周累计上涨4.49%，韩国综指累计大涨7.5%，澳大利亚标普200指数上涨4.22%。\n就政策刺激而言，中商智库首席研究员李建军认为，当前各国经济需要非常规政策刺激。例如，各国需要以补助形式给企业直接的现金支持，并采取非常规的量化宽松政策、购买企业债券等给企业以资金支持。此外，如何确保释放的资金更好更快地为实体经济服务而不是在金融体系里运转也是各国需要面对的问题。\n上周，欧洲央行曾超预期扩大宽松政策力度。本周，美联储议息决定将会公布。美国银行(28.11, 1.33, 4.97%)全球经济主管埃森·哈里斯预计，美联储官员可能会给出更多关于宽松政策的前瞻性指引。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"GLD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":976381215,"gmtCreate":1599591838737,"gmtModify":1703818997047,"author":{"id":"3545287895487362","authorId":"3545287895487362","name":"立夏五月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3545287895487362","idStr":"3545287895487362"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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