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06-14

不值，前方天雷滚滚

市值2.1万亿美元！SpaceX到底值不值？

2025-10-28

老马的星辰大海🌊！我全力支持。。

2024-10-18

感觉是在瞎扯，新款不好用没人喜欢

需求回升，iPhone 16首发前三周中国销量飙升20%

2024-03-05

好好好👍。。。这多简单

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-03-21

$老虎证券(TIGR)$老虎有戏。。如果方向正确我会持续加仓。反之清仓

2022-02-01

$特斯拉(TSLA)$全仓做空没毛病

2021-12-20

说说你对这篇新闻的看法...

美股新能源车板块盘前下挫，Lucid Group跌超5%

2021-12-17

$特斯拉(TSLA)$加把劲，等老马起床卖股票啦

2021-12-15

我只关心台积电是否一直给中芯代工

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-13

呵呵。还钱呗。签了几千亿商票白条猪好意思说出口你靠谱么人

恒大集团：网络上近日出现的有关恒大破产重组的言论完全失实

2021-09-09

$好未来(TAL)$老乡别走。我还活着

2021-08-25

$京东(JD)$幸运日就像收获的日子，小麦一到就得赶紧收割。今晚卖出的都是神一般的感觉

2021-08-15

未来你去喽。。。也算值一辆车钱。。买一送一的

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-14

$GoodRx Holdings, Inc.(GDRX)$在爬行的赛道上，不要停䤠脚步。看好

2021-08-14

$小牛电动(NIU)$坚持不住了。。牛儿果然是夭折的面相

2021-08-06

$快手-W(01024)$短期看跌。。。自救时可以喝稀饭

2021-07-28

$京东(JD)$探底之路深邃又漫长。。美股的调整如期而至。。又是一个漫长的等待

2021-07-27

$特斯拉(TSLA)$感觉偏负面。明天有个坑。卡车难产，皮卡难产。打印房屋讲故事可以

2021-07-26

$好未来(TAL)$别笑话别人。。孩子的补习班首选学而思！不会死的。。耐心看戏

2021-07-24

买一点吧。。教育龙头没呢么脆弱。。我孩子喜欢这个教育机构

@nzdwssm2:$好未来(TAL)$早就说了，现在喊抄底的人，绝对别有用心的，拉人接盘

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08:25","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"市值2.1万亿美元！SpaceX到底值不值？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2643214530","media":"格隆汇","summary":"史诗级的时代赌局","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>史诗级的时代赌局</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12a533d56673b478734d7dc59c1d4c8f\" tg-width=\"2732\" tg-height=\"1534\"/></p><p>美东时间6月12日，美股迎来史上最炸裂IPO。SpaceX正式登陆纳斯达克，彻底引爆全球资本狂欢。</p><p>上市首日，SpaceX大涨19.22%，市值突破2.11万亿美元，一举超越Meta、特斯拉、博通等科技巨头，跻身美国第六大市值公司。</p><p>一夜之间，<strong>马斯克个人身家也因此突破1万亿美元，成为人类历史上首位“万亿富翁”。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5febde87232b0357d0243cae7492f6aa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"748\"/></p><p>同时，<strong>SpaceX上市还创造了约4400名百万美元富豪，其中约400名身家将超过1亿美元，</strong>他们来自SpaceX的现任或前任员工及早期投资者。</p><p><strong>还有一大批华尔街基金、投行机构们也在这场盛宴中获利百亿甚至千亿美元，回报倍数高达几十、上百倍！</strong></p><p>但狂欢背后，也伴随巨大争议。</p><p>一家年营收不足200亿美元、成立24年持续反复亏损、2025年净亏损高达49.37亿美元的企业，却以超100倍的市销率，撑起超2.1万亿美元的天价市值。</p><p>这到底是硬核科技的提前兑现，还是资本市场吹出来的超级泡沫？</p><h2 id=\"id_650143215\">01、极速上市的背后</h2><p>正常顶级科技IPO，都要磨几年：合规打磨、机构博弈、反复定价。</p><p><strong>但SpaceX的上市进程，堪称美股史上罕见的“极速通关”：摒弃了传统企业的拖沓流程，在短短一年时间内敲定方案、落地发行、完成挂牌，以750亿美元募资额刷新全球IPO纪录。</strong></p><p>更反常的是，马斯克以前一直坚决抵制上市。</p><p>他多次公开表示：二级市场的短期业绩压力、舆论束缚，会拖死星舰、火星殖民这种超长周期的硬核项目。</p><p>如今180度的态度反转、突破常规的上市速度、反行业惯例的发行规则，足以说明这绝非简单的上市融资需求，而更可能是一场精准卡位、套利、做高估值的资本操作。</p><p><strong>SpaceX执意快速上市的核心内因之一，是为了通过资产并购嵌套，解决劣质资产无法独立上市的难题，同时完成税务层面的极致优化。</strong></p><p>首先，马斯克旗下xAI+X（原推特）累计背负175亿美元债务，长期持续亏损、无稳定造血能力，如果单独上市不仅门槛不够，而且估值溢价也会被压得非常低，根本不划算。</p><p>于是马斯克设计了一套嵌套并购：把亏损的AI、社交资产，捆绑SpaceX最赚钱的星链、垄断市场的航天业务一起上市。</p><p><strong>靠星链的优质盈利抹平财报短板，顺利达标美股上市规则。同时还盘活了xAI的历史亏损抵税额度，未来可帮公司省下百亿级税费，堪称“亏损变资产”的顶级财技。</strong></p><p>更关键的是，纯航天赛道估值天花板极低，绑定AI热门概念后，成功脱离传统航天估值锚点，制造出“太空+AI”的协同想象，直接拉高企业估值上限。</p><p>另外，SpaceX极速上市，也是为了<strong>精准卡位美股科技泡沫与AI资本红利的最后窗口期，本质是一场“抢跑收割”。</strong></p><p>当前美股科技板块处于阶段性历史高位，后续随时有可能热度消退，一旦错过当下窗口，后续市场下行、AI热钱退潮，公司募资规模、整体估值、股东套现收益都会大幅缩水。</p><p>这也是为什么SpaceX、OpenAI、Anthropic等一众AI巨头均在加速筹备上市的原因。</p><p><strong>当下“太空+AI”的双重稀缺概念，是当下资本市场最具想象力的叙事组合，SpaceX选择在此热度顶峰期上市，能够最大化享受赛道红利，实现远超传统航天企业的估值定价。</strong></p><p>值得一提的是，不同于普通新股上市需等待3个月观察期才能纳入指数，纳斯达克为SpaceX开通快速通道，上市仅15个交易日即可纳入纳斯达克100指数，并上调权重。</p><p>这意味着，<strong>全球超12万亿美元追踪纳指100的被动基金、养老金、401K退休金账户，将按照规则强制被动买入SpaceX，形成百亿级确定性刚性买盘，为股价筑牢底部支撑。</strong></p><p>这套规则红利具备极强的时效性，窗口期转瞬即逝，越早上市，套利空间越大、资金托底效果越显著。也是SpaceX必须火速落地的关键原因。</p><h2 id=\"id_326736470\">02、一边烧钱、一边讲故事</h2><p>支撑SpaceX万亿估值的核心，是其独家构建的“航天发射+卫星互联网+AI算力”三大业务闭环，但三大板块现实价值天差地别，这也是资本市场争议其估值的核心来源。</p><p>根据招股书显示，SpaceX在2025财年的合并营收为186.74亿美元，合并净利润由2024财年的7.91亿美元变为亏损49.37亿美元。</p><p>2026年一季度，SpaceX实现合并营收46.94亿美元，实现合并净利润为亏损42.76亿美元，合并调整后息税前利润则为11.27亿美元。</p><p>其中，<strong>作为技术底座的航天发射业务，是行业绝对龙头，却持续亏损。</strong></p><p>目前SpaceX累计完成超650次发射，85%以上任务实现火箭复用，2025年入轨载荷占全球总量80%以上，垄断全球商业航天发射市场。猎鹰9号、重型猎鹰、龙飞船、星舰四大产品线全覆盖，手握NASA、美国国防部长期大额订单，2025年该板块营收超40亿美元。</p><p>但受星舰持续高强度研发投入拖累，全年运营亏损6.57亿美元，仅能承担技术迭代、市场卡位的战略功能，无法贡献利润。</p><p><strong>作为唯一现金牛的星链卫星互联网业务，是公司估值的核心基本面支撑。</strong></p><p>2025年，星链卫星互联网业务营收达113.87亿美元，占公司总营收60.9%，运营净利润高达44.23亿美元，两年间利润增长近10倍。</p><p>截至2026年3月，星链在轨卫星超9600颗，占全球活跃卫星75%，覆盖164个国家和地区，付费用户突破1030万。</p><p>不过这一块业务也有隐忧，随着市场向欠发达地区下沉，单用户月均收入从2023年99美元降至66美元，增收不增利的增长瓶颈逐步凸显。</p><p><strong>而作为远期估值故事的AI业务，是烧钱主力，落地尚遥遥无期。</strong></p><p>2026年2月SpaceX收购xAI，正式将AI列为三大核心业务，布局AI算力基建、Grok大模型与轨道太空数据中心。</p><p>目前AI部门由于xAI用于采购及建设大规模算力中心导致的巨额资本支出，仍处于大幅亏损状态。2025年AI业务亏损63.55亿美元，2026年一季度再亏24.69亿美元，单季资本开支77.23亿美元，远超航天发射与星链业务开支总和。</p><p>但SpaceX对其AI部门寄予极高的期望。<strong>其在招股书中描绘，未来SpaceX理论最大潜在收入规模高达到28.5万亿美元；其中，太空发射仅占3700亿美元，星链的全球通信收入规模为1.6万亿美元，而人工智能市场收入将为26.5万亿美元，站绝对大头。</strong></p><p>这是一个堪称完全是天方夜谭的难以想象的数字。</p><p>但现实却极其骨感，<strong>目前AI业务仅靠与Anthropic、谷歌的月度算力租赁订单维持基本营收，暂无自研大模型闭环能力，规划中的太空太阳能算力中心、百太瓦级超级算力体系，更像是一个为了支撑高估值而画的远期叙事大饼。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2934211599\">03、超2万亿估值到底值不值？</h2><p>站在2.11万亿美元的市值关口，SpaceX也成为了近年美股分歧最极致的超级IPO。</p><p>一边是散户疯狂抢购、资金扎堆狂欢，一边是顶级机构、资深资本大佬公开看空、预警泡沫。</p><p><strong>市场最大的争议核心是：一家持续亏损、年营收不足200亿美元的企业，是否配得上碾压众多千亿营收科技巨头的天价估值？</strong></p><p>从估值指标看，苹果10倍、特斯拉15倍、英伟达25倍的市销率尚且贴合行业可理解的合理区间，而SpaceX市销率高达百倍，已经完全脱离传统估值体系，让人无法理解认同；</p><p>从经营基本面看，SpaceX成立以来累计亏损413亿美元，2026年一季度亏损再度扩大710%，扩张完全依靠外部融资输血，暂无明确盈利拐点；</p><p>从风险层面看，马斯克手握超84%投票权的绝对集权模式缺乏股东制衡，治理风险突出，同时星舰迭代屡次失败、太空AI算力商业化落地渺茫，宏大叙事的兑现概率极低。</p><p>但依旧有大量顶级资本与产业机构坚定押注，他们的核心共识在于，SpaceX突破了传统企业估值框架，其价值不在于当期盈利，而在于独家垄断的太空+AI下一代基础设施赛道，稀缺性无可替代。</p><p><strong>高盛预计，SpaceX的人工智能业务收入到2030年将激增约100倍，其人工智能部门的收入将从2025年的32亿美元增长至2030年的3220亿美元。SpaceX的总收入预计将在2030年达到4740亿美元。</strong></p><p>与多头狂热形成鲜明对比的是，大量权威机构、资深做空资本对SpaceX天价估值发出严厉预警，认为本轮行情完全脱离基本面，是情绪与叙事催生的巨大泡沫。</p><p><strong>知名大空头、《华尔街最精准做空者》詹姆斯·查诺斯公开炮轰，直言SpaceX是一场彻头彻尾的“希望与梦想式IPO”，其近2万亿美元的估值完全依托市场对马斯克的个人信仰，而非真实财务表现。</strong></p><p>他批评，市场在为一家自由现金流为负、持续大额烧钱的企业支付史诗级溢价，在任何合理的长期经营假设下，该估值都无法成立，本质是资本炒作的海市蜃楼。</p><p>IPO当日，评级机构CFRA率先发布独家“卖出”评级，给出115美元目标价，较135美元发行价折价近15%，核心理由是SpaceX估值严重透支，星链的微薄盈利持续被星舰、xAI两大吞金业务吞噬，且AI赛道入局较晚，无核心差异化优势，难以兑现万亿级市场预期。</p><p>晨星（Morningstar）研报更为激进，分析师尼古拉斯·欧文斯将其公允价值仅定为63美元，较发行价腰斩超53%，公允估值仅7800亿美元，理由是当前估值过高溢价完全是市场为太空数据中心、火星殖民等未落地、高风险远期概念支付的空想价格，不可能成为现实。</p><h2 id=\"id_4016552975\">04、结语</h2><p>SpaceX的史诗级IPO狂欢，可以说是全球资本对“太空+AI”下一代基础设施的极致押注。</p><p>短期来看，依托稀缺赛道、稳固壁垒与完善的资本防护体系，SpaceX的高估值仍有支撑空间。</p><p>但长期而言，万亿市值能否站稳，最终不取决于叙事有多宏大，而取决于星舰技术能否落地、太空AI算力能否商业化、持续亏损的循环能否打破。</p><p>这场属于星辰大海的资本盛宴，终究需要真实的技术突破与盈利能力来买单。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市值2.1万亿美元！SpaceX到底值不值？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市值2.1万亿美元！SpaceX到底值不值？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-14 08:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/5189815><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>史诗级的时代赌局美东时间6月12日，美股迎来史上最炸裂IPO。SpaceX正式登陆纳斯达克，彻底引爆全球资本狂欢。上市首日，SpaceX大涨19.22%，市值突破2.11万亿美元，一举超越Meta、特斯拉、博通等科技巨头，跻身美国第六大市值公司。一夜之间，马斯克个人身家也因此突破1万亿美元，成为人类历史上首位“万亿富翁”。同时，SpaceX上市还创造了约4400名百万美元富豪，其中约400名身家将...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/5189815\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ccbfdfde15f3bdc8fa15fad42df9a33","relate_stocks":{"SPCF":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-ProShares","BK4089":"非传统电信运营商","SPCX":"SPAC and New Issue ETF","DXYZ":"Destiny Tech100 Inc","SNK":"2倍做空SpaceX ETF-GraniteShares","XOVR":"ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF","SPCU":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-Defiance","BK4615":"SpaceX概念","UFO":"Procure Space ETF","LOFF":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-Direxion","SPCH":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-Leverage Shares","SPAL":"2倍做多Space X ETF-GraniteShares"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/5189815","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2643214530","content_text":"史诗级的时代赌局美东时间6月12日，美股迎来史上最炸裂IPO。SpaceX正式登陆纳斯达克，彻底引爆全球资本狂欢。上市首日，SpaceX大涨19.22%，市值突破2.11万亿美元，一举超越Meta、特斯拉、博通等科技巨头，跻身美国第六大市值公司。一夜之间，马斯克个人身家也因此突破1万亿美元，成为人类历史上首位“万亿富翁”。同时，SpaceX上市还创造了约4400名百万美元富豪，其中约400名身家将超过1亿美元，他们来自SpaceX的现任或前任员工及早期投资者。还有一大批华尔街基金、投行机构们也在这场盛宴中获利百亿甚至千亿美元，回报倍数高达几十、上百倍！但狂欢背后，也伴随巨大争议。一家年营收不足200亿美元、成立24年持续反复亏损、2025年净亏损高达49.37亿美元的企业，却以超100倍的市销率，撑起超2.1万亿美元的天价市值。这到底是硬核科技的提前兑现，还是资本市场吹出来的超级泡沫？01、极速上市的背后正常顶级科技IPO，都要磨几年：合规打磨、机构博弈、反复定价。但SpaceX的上市进程，堪称美股史上罕见的“极速通关”：摒弃了传统企业的拖沓流程，在短短一年时间内敲定方案、落地发行、完成挂牌，以750亿美元募资额刷新全球IPO纪录。更反常的是，马斯克以前一直坚决抵制上市。他多次公开表示：二级市场的短期业绩压力、舆论束缚，会拖死星舰、火星殖民这种超长周期的硬核项目。如今180度的态度反转、突破常规的上市速度、反行业惯例的发行规则，足以说明这绝非简单的上市融资需求，而更可能是一场精准卡位、套利、做高估值的资本操作。SpaceX执意快速上市的核心内因之一，是为了通过资产并购嵌套，解决劣质资产无法独立上市的难题，同时完成税务层面的极致优化。首先，马斯克旗下xAI+X（原推特）累计背负175亿美元债务，长期持续亏损、无稳定造血能力，如果单独上市不仅门槛不够，而且估值溢价也会被压得非常低，根本不划算。于是马斯克设计了一套嵌套并购：把亏损的AI、社交资产，捆绑SpaceX最赚钱的星链、垄断市场的航天业务一起上市。靠星链的优质盈利抹平财报短板，顺利达标美股上市规则。同时还盘活了xAI的历史亏损抵税额度，未来可帮公司省下百亿级税费，堪称“亏损变资产”的顶级财技。更关键的是，纯航天赛道估值天花板极低，绑定AI热门概念后，成功脱离传统航天估值锚点，制造出“太空+AI”的协同想象，直接拉高企业估值上限。另外，SpaceX极速上市，也是为了精准卡位美股科技泡沫与AI资本红利的最后窗口期，本质是一场“抢跑收割”。当前美股科技板块处于阶段性历史高位，后续随时有可能热度消退，一旦错过当下窗口，后续市场下行、AI热钱退潮，公司募资规模、整体估值、股东套现收益都会大幅缩水。这也是为什么SpaceX、OpenAI、Anthropic等一众AI巨头均在加速筹备上市的原因。当下“太空+AI”的双重稀缺概念，是当下资本市场最具想象力的叙事组合，SpaceX选择在此热度顶峰期上市，能够最大化享受赛道红利，实现远超传统航天企业的估值定价。值得一提的是，不同于普通新股上市需等待3个月观察期才能纳入指数，纳斯达克为SpaceX开通快速通道，上市仅15个交易日即可纳入纳斯达克100指数，并上调权重。这意味着，全球超12万亿美元追踪纳指100的被动基金、养老金、401K退休金账户，将按照规则强制被动买入SpaceX，形成百亿级确定性刚性买盘，为股价筑牢底部支撑。这套规则红利具备极强的时效性，窗口期转瞬即逝，越早上市，套利空间越大、资金托底效果越显著。也是SpaceX必须火速落地的关键原因。02、一边烧钱、一边讲故事支撑SpaceX万亿估值的核心，是其独家构建的“航天发射+卫星互联网+AI算力”三大业务闭环，但三大板块现实价值天差地别，这也是资本市场争议其估值的核心来源。根据招股书显示，SpaceX在2025财年的合并营收为186.74亿美元，合并净利润由2024财年的7.91亿美元变为亏损49.37亿美元。2026年一季度，SpaceX实现合并营收46.94亿美元，实现合并净利润为亏损42.76亿美元，合并调整后息税前利润则为11.27亿美元。其中，作为技术底座的航天发射业务，是行业绝对龙头，却持续亏损。目前SpaceX累计完成超650次发射，85%以上任务实现火箭复用，2025年入轨载荷占全球总量80%以上，垄断全球商业航天发射市场。猎鹰9号、重型猎鹰、龙飞船、星舰四大产品线全覆盖，手握NASA、美国国防部长期大额订单，2025年该板块营收超40亿美元。但受星舰持续高强度研发投入拖累，全年运营亏损6.57亿美元，仅能承担技术迭代、市场卡位的战略功能，无法贡献利润。作为唯一现金牛的星链卫星互联网业务，是公司估值的核心基本面支撑。2025年，星链卫星互联网业务营收达113.87亿美元，占公司总营收60.9%，运营净利润高达44.23亿美元，两年间利润增长近10倍。截至2026年3月，星链在轨卫星超9600颗，占全球活跃卫星75%，覆盖164个国家和地区，付费用户突破1030万。不过这一块业务也有隐忧，随着市场向欠发达地区下沉，单用户月均收入从2023年99美元降至66美元，增收不增利的增长瓶颈逐步凸显。而作为远期估值故事的AI业务，是烧钱主力，落地尚遥遥无期。2026年2月SpaceX收购xAI，正式将AI列为三大核心业务，布局AI算力基建、Grok大模型与轨道太空数据中心。目前AI部门由于xAI用于采购及建设大规模算力中心导致的巨额资本支出，仍处于大幅亏损状态。2025年AI业务亏损63.55亿美元，2026年一季度再亏24.69亿美元，单季资本开支77.23亿美元，远超航天发射与星链业务开支总和。但SpaceX对其AI部门寄予极高的期望。其在招股书中描绘，未来SpaceX理论最大潜在收入规模高达到28.5万亿美元；其中，太空发射仅占3700亿美元，星链的全球通信收入规模为1.6万亿美元，而人工智能市场收入将为26.5万亿美元，站绝对大头。这是一个堪称完全是天方夜谭的难以想象的数字。但现实却极其骨感，目前AI业务仅靠与Anthropic、谷歌的月度算力租赁订单维持基本营收，暂无自研大模型闭环能力，规划中的太空太阳能算力中心、百太瓦级超级算力体系，更像是一个为了支撑高估值而画的远期叙事大饼。03、超2万亿估值到底值不值？站在2.11万亿美元的市值关口，SpaceX也成为了近年美股分歧最极致的超级IPO。一边是散户疯狂抢购、资金扎堆狂欢，一边是顶级机构、资深资本大佬公开看空、预警泡沫。市场最大的争议核心是：一家持续亏损、年营收不足200亿美元的企业，是否配得上碾压众多千亿营收科技巨头的天价估值？从估值指标看，苹果10倍、特斯拉15倍、英伟达25倍的市销率尚且贴合行业可理解的合理区间，而SpaceX市销率高达百倍，已经完全脱离传统估值体系，让人无法理解认同；从经营基本面看，SpaceX成立以来累计亏损413亿美元，2026年一季度亏损再度扩大710%，扩张完全依靠外部融资输血，暂无明确盈利拐点；从风险层面看，马斯克手握超84%投票权的绝对集权模式缺乏股东制衡，治理风险突出，同时星舰迭代屡次失败、太空AI算力商业化落地渺茫，宏大叙事的兑现概率极低。但依旧有大量顶级资本与产业机构坚定押注，他们的核心共识在于，SpaceX突破了传统企业估值框架，其价值不在于当期盈利，而在于独家垄断的太空+AI下一代基础设施赛道，稀缺性无可替代。高盛预计，SpaceX的人工智能业务收入到2030年将激增约100倍，其人工智能部门的收入将从2025年的32亿美元增长至2030年的3220亿美元。SpaceX的总收入预计将在2030年达到4740亿美元。与多头狂热形成鲜明对比的是，大量权威机构、资深做空资本对SpaceX天价估值发出严厉预警，认为本轮行情完全脱离基本面，是情绪与叙事催生的巨大泡沫。知名大空头、《华尔街最精准做空者》詹姆斯·查诺斯公开炮轰，直言SpaceX是一场彻头彻尾的“希望与梦想式IPO”，其近2万亿美元的估值完全依托市场对马斯克的个人信仰，而非真实财务表现。他批评，市场在为一家自由现金流为负、持续大额烧钱的企业支付史诗级溢价，在任何合理的长期经营假设下，该估值都无法成立，本质是资本炒作的海市蜃楼。IPO当日，评级机构CFRA率先发布独家“卖出”评级，给出115美元目标价，较135美元发行价折价近15%，核心理由是SpaceX估值严重透支，星链的微薄盈利持续被星舰、xAI两大吞金业务吞噬，且AI赛道入局较晚，无核心差异化优势，难以兑现万亿级市场预期。晨星（Morningstar）研报更为激进，分析师尼古拉斯·欧文斯将其公允价值仅定为63美元，较发行价腰斩超53%，公允估值仅7800亿美元，理由是当前估值过高溢价完全是市场为太空数据中心、火星殖民等未落地、高风险远期概念支付的空想价格，不可能成为现实。04、结语SpaceX的史诗级IPO狂欢，可以说是全球资本对“太空+AI”下一代基础设施的极致押注。短期来看，依托稀缺赛道、稳固壁垒与完善的资本防护体系，SpaceX的高估值仍有支撑空间。但长期而言，万亿市值能否站稳，最终不取决于叙事有多宏大，而取决于星舰技术能否落地、太空AI算力能否商业化、持续亏损的循环能否打破。这场属于星辰大海的资本盛宴，终究需要真实的技术突破与盈利能力来买单。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCF":0.6,"XOVR":1.5,"SNK":1.5,"SPAL":1.5,"SPCH":0.6,"SPCX":1.5,"SPCU":1.5,"DXYZ":1.5,"UFO":0.6,"LOFF":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":494121668034648,"gmtCreate":1761661732567,"gmtModify":1761662446703,"author":{"id":"3544366713196677","authorId":"3544366713196677","name":"searry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2195d57289a389acdc6b4d433933c09","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544366713196677","idStr":"3544366713196677"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"老马的星辰大海🌊！我全力支持。。","listText":"老马的星辰大海🌊！我全力支持。。","text":"老马的星辰大海🌊！我全力支持。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/494121668034648","isVote":1,"tweetTy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15:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"需求回升，iPhone 16首发前三周中国销量飙升20%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194542270","media":"智通财经网","summary":"高端机型Pro和Pro Max的销量同比增长了44%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>苹果最新款iPhone上市后在中国市场的前三周销量较2023年款增长了20%，对于今年难以在中国这个全球最大智能手机市场获得关注的iPhone来说，这是一个积极迹象。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据Counterpoint Research的数据，于9月首次亮相的iPhone 16迄今为止在中国市场的表现优于其旧款iPhone 15。消费者依然青睐价格更高的高端型号，与去年相比，高端机型Pro和Pro Max的销量同比增长了44%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然只是三周的销量，但数据表明，苹果今年发布的新产品表现要比去年更好。Counterpoint分析师Ivan Lam提到，生产问题在早期阻碍了iPhone 15系列的进展，这可能限制了初期的销售。苹果的旗舰设备还面临着华为Mate 60系列的严峻挑战，该系列手机凭借国产芯片赢得了中国消费者的青睐。据Lam介绍，Mate 60系列的销量仍然很好。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Lam表示：“考虑到平稳的生产、一致的定价策略，以及现有iPhone用户的首次换机浪潮，iPhone 16系列在中国国内市场经历了大幅增长。产品组合也得到了显著改善。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e98152e06122736da71e44f5a3804b18\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"280\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周，苹果股价创下历史新高，这得益于对人工智能驱动的iPhone推出的乐观情绪。分析人士曾警告称，鉴于缺乏本土合作伙伴来支持人工智能功能，iPhone 16在中国的表现可能不佳。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然开局不错，但iPhone 16今年仍将面临许多本土竞争对手。Vivo刚刚宣布了其新的X200 Pro旗舰产品，华为预计将于11月推出其下一代Mate系列，还有Oppo等多家厂商将在年底前更新其产品线。中国仍然是全球最大的智能手机市场，据苹果首席执行官库克估计，中国也是最具竞争力的市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对苹果来说，iPhone仍然是迄今为止最重要的产品，因为它直接贡献了大约一半的销售额，并吸引消费者购买Apple Watch等配件或Apple Music等订阅服务。但智能手机市场多年来一直停滞不前，这款最新一代智能手机在整个销售过程中的表现还有待观察。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>需求回升，iPhone 16首发前三周中国销量飙升20%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n需求回升，iPhone 16首发前三周中国销量飙升20%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-18 15:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1195812.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>苹果最新款iPhone上市后在中国市场的前三周销量较2023年款增长了20%，对于今年难以在中国这个全球最大智能手机市场获得关注的iPhone来说，这是一个积极迹象。根据Counterpoint Research的数据，于9月首次亮相的iPhone 16迄今为止在中国市场的表现优于其旧款iPhone 15。消费者依然青睐价格更高的高端型号，与去年相比，高端机型Pro和Pro Max的销量同比增长了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1195812.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4caa43f028859e314831d88c96758ad","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1195812.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194542270","content_text":"苹果最新款iPhone上市后在中国市场的前三周销量较2023年款增长了20%，对于今年难以在中国这个全球最大智能手机市场获得关注的iPhone来说，这是一个积极迹象。根据Counterpoint Research的数据，于9月首次亮相的iPhone 16迄今为止在中国市场的表现优于其旧款iPhone 15。消费者依然青睐价格更高的高端型号，与去年相比，高端机型Pro和Pro Max的销量同比增长了44%。虽然只是三周的销量，但数据表明，苹果今年发布的新产品表现要比去年更好。Counterpoint分析师Ivan Lam提到，生产问题在早期阻碍了iPhone 15系列的进展，这可能限制了初期的销售。苹果的旗舰设备还面临着华为Mate 60系列的严峻挑战，该系列手机凭借国产芯片赢得了中国消费者的青睐。据Lam介绍，Mate 60系列的销量仍然很好。Lam表示：“考虑到平稳的生产、一致的定价策略，以及现有iPhone用户的首次换机浪潮，iPhone 16系列在中国国内市场经历了大幅增长。产品组合也得到了显著改善。”本周，苹果股价创下历史新高，这得益于对人工智能驱动的iPhone推出的乐观情绪。分析人士曾警告称，鉴于缺乏本土合作伙伴来支持人工智能功能，iPhone 16在中国的表现可能不佳。虽然开局不错，但iPhone 16今年仍将面临许多本土竞争对手。Vivo刚刚宣布了其新的X200 Pro旗舰产品，华为预计将于11月推出其下一代Mate系列，还有Oppo等多家厂商将在年底前更新其产品线。中国仍然是全球最大的智能手机市场，据苹果首席执行官库克估计，中国也是最具竞争力的市场。对苹果来说，iPhone仍然是迄今为止最重要的产品，因为它直接贡献了大约一半的销售额，并吸引消费者购买Apple Watch等配件或Apple Music等订阅服务。但智能手机市场多年来一直停滞不前，这款最新一代智能手机在整个销售过程中的表现还有待观察。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":280884576309496,"gmtCreate":1709604443974,"gmtModify":1709604957321,"author":{"id":"3544366713196677","authorId":"3544366713196677","name":"searry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2195d57289a389acdc6b4d433933c09","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544366713196677","idStr":"3544366713196677"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"好好好👍。。。这多简单","listText":"好好好👍。。。这多简单","text":"好好好👍。。。这多简单","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/280884576309496","repostId":"1146545661","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":637943238,"gmtCreate":1647870719915,"gmtModify":1647871119365,"author":{"id":"3544366713196677","authorId":"3544366713196677","name":"searry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2195d57289a389acdc6b4d433933c09","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544366713196677","idStr":"3544366713196677"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>老虎有戏。。如果方向正确我会持续加仓。反之清仓","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>老虎有戏。。如果方向正确我会持续加仓。反之清仓","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$老虎有戏。。如果方向正确我会持续加仓。反之清仓","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/637943238","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633934599,"gmtCreate":1643652372982,"gmtModify":1643676087455,"author":{"id":"3544366713196677","authorId":"3544366713196677","name":"searry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2195d57289a389acdc6b4d433933c09","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544366713196677","idStr":"3544366713196677"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>全仓做空没毛病","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>全仓做空没毛病","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$全仓做空没毛病","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633934599","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693144914,"gmtCreate":1639992215342,"gmtModify":1639993913195,"author":{"id":"3544366713196677","authorId":"3544366713196677","name":"searry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2195d57289a389acdc6b4d433933c09","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544366713196677","idStr":"3544366713196677"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693144914","repostId":"1123285714","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123285714","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639991073,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123285714?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 17:04","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"美股新能源车板块盘前下挫，Lucid Group跌超5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123285714","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月20日，美股新能源车板块盘前下挫，Lucid Group跌超5%，Rivian跌超4%，蔚来跌近4%，理想汽车跌超3%，特斯拉跌近3%，小鹏汽车跌近2%","content":"<p>12月20日，美股新能源车板块盘前下挫，Lucid Group跌超5%，Rivian跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌近4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>跌近3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>跌近2%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9c991fa0fcb0df170ce6fabb2cd7570\" tg-width=\"890\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股新能源车板块盘前下挫，Lucid Group跌超5%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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22:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"当苹果正在悄悄减少中国制造，接下来会发生什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146955750","media":"极客公园","summary":"如果说未来世界制造业格局会发生剧变，那么现在大概率就是那个起点。「中国制造」生变苹果电子产品的生产正在从中国向外转移。9 月 7 日，印度科技部长普拉萨表示，苹果已有 8 家代工厂从中国转移到了印度。","content":"<blockquote>如果说未来世界制造业格局会发生剧变，那么现在大概率就是那个起点。</blockquote><p><b>「中国制造」生变</b></p><p>苹果电子产品的生产正在从中国向外转移。</p><p>9 月 7 日，印度科技部长普拉萨表示，苹果已有 8 家代工厂从中国转移到了印度。这只是产业转移的缩影。</p><p>小何从未想到过，这种国际新闻里的事情，会和普普通通的自己产生联系。</p><p>7 月，小何从山西老家来到江苏昆山求职，心里想着要出人头地。在家里，没有工作的小何觉得自己被父母瞧不起，又被相亲对象嫌弃，他想改变这一切。</p><p>他通过中介找了一份工厂里的短期工作，被分配到苹果的生产线，薪资至少过得去，又不需要技术基础。</p><p>昆山汇聚了大量的电子产品代工厂，它们会在旺季的时候招聘大量的短期工人，做一些技术含量不高、机械重复的工作，在淡季的时候自然结束合同。这类合同的时间通常在一周到三个月，甚至可以按天结算工资。</p><p>这样可以节约大量的人力成本，不需要为每一个人交社保。比如一个注册规模几千人的企业，每年的招聘人次却可以达到几十万。</p><p>小何就是这几十万流动人员之一，他预料到车间里的工作会是枯燥的。他为自己打气：「闭眼交证了，干就完了，最少顶一个月！」</p><p>一周后，「快活不下去了，难受」。工作比他想象的还要枯燥，人的情绪被机械的产线几乎碾碎。</p><p>从同事那里，他听到一个消息，自己所在的纬创，被一家叫立讯精密的中国代工厂收购，他并不清楚这意味着什么。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1aa02487eaaf7a7e919e80e8215e85b0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>苹果 CEO 库克曾表示，为了产品质量，苹果无意向东南亚等低成本区域转移产能，目前事实并非如此｜视觉中国</p><p>纬创把位于中国大陆的苹果代工厂卖掉后，转身就在印度接下了苹果手机的新订单，并开始大规模招聘。几天后，为苹果做代工的另一家企业富士康披露了一组数据：去年，他们在中国大陆制造和组装的产品约占其总量的 75%，今年则降低到了 70%。</p><p>很快，这组数据就引发了一轮热议：中国是否会失去其「世界工厂」的地位？</p><p>全球最大的代工厂富士康是否要开始撤离中国？富士康工业富联董事长李军旗对极客公园表示，他们的战略依旧是扎根大陆，「为了应对全球市场客户的需求，我们在 11 个国家和地区有研发、生产据点，这不是这几年的事，十几年前我们就这么做了。」</p><p>过去，几乎所有的 iPhone、iPad 等苹果产品都是在中国完成生产、组装，之后出口到各个国家。</p><p>未来，可能会有所不同。有供应链人士告诉极客公园，苹果可能会继续将更多工厂生产线撤离中国，只留下总体的 30%，专门供应中国市场。这样的转移，也发生在其他国外品牌身上。似乎中国作为「世界工厂」的位置真的在动摇。</p><p>不过，中国是不是「世界工厂」这件事儿，重要么？</p><p><b>「二选一」下的新格局</b></p><p>「世界工厂」的名号似乎离我们日常生活很远，但各类工业品在哪里生产、组装这件事儿，对于政府和普通民众来讲是重要的。</p><p>一座工厂转移的背后牵扯着更多利益。比如，2010 年，富士康落户郑州后，一年时间就招聘了 13 万员工，帮助河南解决了大量的就业问题。一年后，拉动加工贸易、机电产品等相关出口额分别增长了 50% 左右。到了 2019 年，郑州富士康出口总额为 2199 亿元，进口总额为 1138 亿元，占郑州进出口总额的 81%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58d4d15fdb3a2e3d0ca3c3db61a0c331\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"714\"></p><p>河南省郑州市航空港区的富士康保税区厂房 | 视觉中国</p><p>因为，引进富士康往往还会吸引它的众多供应商一齐入驻，相当于带来了完整的工业生态。进而，继续拉动就业，提高政府财政收入。</p><p>不止中国政府明白这一点，其他国家也明白。过去，中国凭借大量廉价劳动力和优惠税收政策，吸引了大量国外品牌和制造商来中国建厂，逐渐形成了完备的供应商集群。中国世界工厂的地位越来越稳固。现在，中国工业产值已占全球 30%，其中汽车零部件、家电、服务机器人等出口占比 30% 以上，光伏产业更是达到 70%。</p><p>然而，受到新冠疫情和中美贸易摩擦加剧的影响，这样的平衡似乎正在被打破。美国开始对从中国进口的产品征收更高的关税，来抑制中国的经济增长。</p><p>尤其是电子、通信等领域的产品。库克近两年来开始抱怨美国政府总是针对苹果，比如，在中国组装并运往美国的 iPhone 将被征收更高的关税。</p><p>其他品牌也是一样，只要想卖到美国或者其盟友国家，往往需要缴纳更高的关税。比如思科售卖的网络通信设备，已经从广西转移到了越南制造。</p><p>品牌商和他们的代工厂们，摸索出了一条新的路子：规划两条供应链体系，一条面向美国和其盟友国家，一条面向中国和其他国家。</p><p>立讯精密早在几年前就开始在印度和越南建立工厂，董事长王来春 2019 年时表示，为了解决两个最大经济体之间关税战带来的问题，必要时公司会将受影响的产品继续转移至越南或其他国家。按照她的规划，未来越南会承载立讯精密 1/3 的产能。</p><p>2017 年，库克曾到立讯精密车间观看工作人员操作过程 | 立讯精密</p><p>嗅到了机会的其他发展中国家，更加积极地抛出了橄榄枝。</p><p>4 月份，印度发布了招商引资的新策略，宣布拿出 60 亿美金的激励、大面积的廉价土地吸引电子产业链的企业。</p><p>6 月份，越南和欧盟签订了自由贸易协定，将取消或减少 99% 的关税。实际上，此前三星在陆续关闭了中国大陆的工厂之后，已经完全将海外生产重心转移到了越南，随之转移的还有它的一系列供应链伙伴。不过，土地有限，且人口只有 1 亿的越南，它的承载能力注定有限。</p><p>另外一个热门地点是墨西哥。7 月份，墨西哥与美国签署了贸易协议，商品出口美国零关税。墨西哥的特点也是具备大量廉价的劳动力，富士康此前就在那里有 5 个工厂。</p><p>当地的一家房地产中介公司 CEO 表示，他的公司目前正在帮助两家中国公司（其中一家在汽车领域，另一家在制造业）搬迁到墨西哥的工业集群。「想要在北美保持市场份额的中国制造商别无选择」。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448a3c2a0b801b1c4725a531adc4e5ce\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\">江苏徐州，工作人员在组装工程机械 | 人民视觉</p><p>不同国家的人力成本、供应链成本都是有差异的，这必然会影响整体的成本结构，进而影响定价和利润。</p><p>制造商和硕董事长董子贤在一次采访中谈到，没有哪个国家能像中国过去那样提供如此诱人的投资环境，拥有庞大的劳动力队伍，得到几代官员支持的政策，以及众多附近的供应商。「我们下一步要去哪里？我不知道。」</p><p>但是，在中美贸易摩擦的大环境下，只能寻找应急对策。</p><p><b>破局：寻找全球化的新思路、新平衡</b></p><p>45 年前，富士康创始人郭台铭将自己的业务从一个租来的小作坊里，发展为一家跨国产业巨头。它扎根中国大陆，吸引了来自全球的订单。</p><p>从 90 年代开始，中国制造业崛起的过程，其实就是中国全球化进程的体现。与怎么留住制造业对应的问题是，中国企业怎么继续走出去。一进一出，才能构成中国迈向全球化的闭环。</p><p>如今，无论是国外呼吁的供应链回流，还是 TikTok、华为等企业在海外遭遇的围堵，亦或是疫情加速造成的脱钩，中国企业所面临的全球化环境前所未有的严峻。「这么多年过去，在国外无论是大的发达市场还是新兴国家，有的时候大家对中国的大公司还是感觉到威胁，感到害怕。」这是跨境 B2B 电商敦煌网创始人王树彤的亲身体会。</p><p>与几十年前相比，中国的地位和国际影响力已经发生了改变，中国企业正在发挥着越来越重要的角色。每个国家有自己的政治、经济、文化，她觉得中国企业需要找到新的姿势、模式来融入全球，以此来消除合作伙伴的不安和不信任。</p><p>如果说，TikTok 在美国面临被封杀的问题，是华为之后，中国企业走向国际化又一场至关重要的战役。那么，重新思考自己的位置、进行姿态和路径的转换，则是中国企业走向全球的另一重自我考验。</p>","source":"jkgy","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>当苹果正在悄悄减少中国制造，接下来会发生什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\n当苹果正在悄悄减少中国制造，接下来会发生什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-09-24 22:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/G7Ca9T7_zaTyJqza6FJamQ><strong>极客公园</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>如果说未来世界制造业格局会发生剧变，那么现在大概率就是那个起点。「中国制造」生变苹果电子产品的生产正在从中国向外转移。9 月 7 日，印度科技部长普拉萨表示，苹果已有 8 家代工厂从中国转移到了印度。这只是产业转移的缩影。小何从未想到过，这种国际新闻里的事情，会和普普通通的自己产生联系。7 月，小何从山西老家来到江苏昆山求职，心里想着要出人头地。在家里，没有工作的小何觉得自己被父母瞧不起，又被相亲...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/G7Ca9T7_zaTyJqza6FJamQ\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c270f4f234db14bb09d64aec8f85a31","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/G7Ca9T7_zaTyJqza6FJamQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146955750","content_text":"如果说未来世界制造业格局会发生剧变，那么现在大概率就是那个起点。「中国制造」生变苹果电子产品的生产正在从中国向外转移。9 月 7 日，印度科技部长普拉萨表示，苹果已有 8 家代工厂从中国转移到了印度。这只是产业转移的缩影。小何从未想到过，这种国际新闻里的事情，会和普普通通的自己产生联系。7 月，小何从山西老家来到江苏昆山求职，心里想着要出人头地。在家里，没有工作的小何觉得自己被父母瞧不起，又被相亲对象嫌弃，他想改变这一切。他通过中介找了一份工厂里的短期工作，被分配到苹果的生产线，薪资至少过得去，又不需要技术基础。昆山汇聚了大量的电子产品代工厂，它们会在旺季的时候招聘大量的短期工人，做一些技术含量不高、机械重复的工作，在淡季的时候自然结束合同。这类合同的时间通常在一周到三个月，甚至可以按天结算工资。这样可以节约大量的人力成本，不需要为每一个人交社保。比如一个注册规模几千人的企业，每年的招聘人次却可以达到几十万。小何就是这几十万流动人员之一，他预料到车间里的工作会是枯燥的。他为自己打气：「闭眼交证了，干就完了，最少顶一个月！」一周后，「快活不下去了，难受」。工作比他想象的还要枯燥，人的情绪被机械的产线几乎碾碎。从同事那里，他听到一个消息，自己所在的纬创，被一家叫立讯精密的中国代工厂收购，他并不清楚这意味着什么。苹果 CEO 库克曾表示，为了产品质量，苹果无意向东南亚等低成本区域转移产能，目前事实并非如此｜视觉中国纬创把位于中国大陆的苹果代工厂卖掉后，转身就在印度接下了苹果手机的新订单，并开始大规模招聘。几天后，为苹果做代工的另一家企业富士康披露了一组数据：去年，他们在中国大陆制造和组装的产品约占其总量的 75%，今年则降低到了 70%。很快，这组数据就引发了一轮热议：中国是否会失去其「世界工厂」的地位？全球最大的代工厂富士康是否要开始撤离中国？富士康工业富联董事长李军旗对极客公园表示，他们的战略依旧是扎根大陆，「为了应对全球市场客户的需求，我们在 11 个国家和地区有研发、生产据点，这不是这几年的事，十几年前我们就这么做了。」过去，几乎所有的 iPhone、iPad 等苹果产品都是在中国完成生产、组装，之后出口到各个国家。未来，可能会有所不同。有供应链人士告诉极客公园，苹果可能会继续将更多工厂生产线撤离中国，只留下总体的 30%，专门供应中国市场。这样的转移，也发生在其他国外品牌身上。似乎中国作为「世界工厂」的位置真的在动摇。不过，中国是不是「世界工厂」这件事儿，重要么？「二选一」下的新格局「世界工厂」的名号似乎离我们日常生活很远，但各类工业品在哪里生产、组装这件事儿，对于政府和普通民众来讲是重要的。一座工厂转移的背后牵扯着更多利益。比如，2010 年，富士康落户郑州后，一年时间就招聘了 13 万员工，帮助河南解决了大量的就业问题。一年后，拉动加工贸易、机电产品等相关出口额分别增长了 50% 左右。到了 2019 年，郑州富士康出口总额为 2199 亿元，进口总额为 1138 亿元，占郑州进出口总额的 81%。河南省郑州市航空港区的富士康保税区厂房 | 视觉中国因为，引进富士康往往还会吸引它的众多供应商一齐入驻，相当于带来了完整的工业生态。进而，继续拉动就业，提高政府财政收入。不止中国政府明白这一点，其他国家也明白。过去，中国凭借大量廉价劳动力和优惠税收政策，吸引了大量国外品牌和制造商来中国建厂，逐渐形成了完备的供应商集群。中国世界工厂的地位越来越稳固。现在，中国工业产值已占全球 30%，其中汽车零部件、家电、服务机器人等出口占比 30% 以上，光伏产业更是达到 70%。然而，受到新冠疫情和中美贸易摩擦加剧的影响，这样的平衡似乎正在被打破。美国开始对从中国进口的产品征收更高的关税，来抑制中国的经济增长。尤其是电子、通信等领域的产品。库克近两年来开始抱怨美国政府总是针对苹果，比如，在中国组装并运往美国的 iPhone 将被征收更高的关税。其他品牌也是一样，只要想卖到美国或者其盟友国家，往往需要缴纳更高的关税。比如思科售卖的网络通信设备，已经从广西转移到了越南制造。品牌商和他们的代工厂们，摸索出了一条新的路子：规划两条供应链体系，一条面向美国和其盟友国家，一条面向中国和其他国家。立讯精密早在几年前就开始在印度和越南建立工厂，董事长王来春 2019 年时表示，为了解决两个最大经济体之间关税战带来的问题，必要时公司会将受影响的产品继续转移至越南或其他国家。按照她的规划，未来越南会承载立讯精密 1/3 的产能。2017 年，库克曾到立讯精密车间观看工作人员操作过程 | 立讯精密嗅到了机会的其他发展中国家，更加积极地抛出了橄榄枝。4 月份，印度发布了招商引资的新策略，宣布拿出 60 亿美金的激励、大面积的廉价土地吸引电子产业链的企业。6 月份，越南和欧盟签订了自由贸易协定，将取消或减少 99% 的关税。实际上，此前三星在陆续关闭了中国大陆的工厂之后，已经完全将海外生产重心转移到了越南，随之转移的还有它的一系列供应链伙伴。不过，土地有限，且人口只有 1 亿的越南，它的承载能力注定有限。另外一个热门地点是墨西哥。7 月份，墨西哥与美国签署了贸易协议，商品出口美国零关税。墨西哥的特点也是具备大量廉价的劳动力，富士康此前就在那里有 5 个工厂。当地的一家房地产中介公司 CEO 表示，他的公司目前正在帮助两家中国公司（其中一家在汽车领域，另一家在制造业）搬迁到墨西哥的工业集群。「想要在北美保持市场份额的中国制造商别无选择」。江苏徐州，工作人员在组装工程机械 | 人民视觉不同国家的人力成本、供应链成本都是有差异的，这必然会影响整体的成本结构，进而影响定价和利润。制造商和硕董事长董子贤在一次采访中谈到，没有哪个国家能像中国过去那样提供如此诱人的投资环境，拥有庞大的劳动力队伍，得到几代官员支持的政策，以及众多附近的供应商。「我们下一步要去哪里？我不知道。」但是，在中美贸易摩擦的大环境下，只能寻找应急对策。破局：寻找全球化的新思路、新平衡45 年前，富士康创始人郭台铭将自己的业务从一个租来的小作坊里，发展为一家跨国产业巨头。它扎根中国大陆，吸引了来自全球的订单。从 90 年代开始，中国制造业崛起的过程，其实就是中国全球化进程的体现。与怎么留住制造业对应的问题是，中国企业怎么继续走出去。一进一出，才能构成中国迈向全球化的闭环。如今，无论是国外呼吁的供应链回流，还是 TikTok、华为等企业在海外遭遇的围堵，亦或是疫情加速造成的脱钩，中国企业所面临的全球化环境前所未有的严峻。「这么多年过去，在国外无论是大的发达市场还是新兴国家，有的时候大家对中国的大公司还是感觉到威胁，感到害怕。」这是跨境 B2B 电商敦煌网创始人王树彤的亲身体会。与几十年前相比，中国的地位和国际影响力已经发生了改变，中国企业正在发挥着越来越重要的角色。每个国家有自己的政治、经济、文化，她觉得中国企业需要找到新的姿势、模式来融入全球，以此来消除合作伙伴的不安和不信任。如果说，TikTok 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