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02-02
华尔街真会胡说八道，连k线图都懒得看，飙升后下跌？飙升过吗？胡说八道说明了啥？这些人肯定不是笨蛋，那会是什么蛋？
SoFi Stock Slides After Initial Surge On Strong Earnings<blockquote>SoFi股价因强劲盈利而初步飙升后下跌</blockquote>
行走速度
2025-03-31
主观预期飙升，实际生活中油价大幅下跌，到底咋回事
美股最大的空头：密歇根大学
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2024-12-03
说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
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行走速度
2024-12-03
民左就是剥削做贡献的人，转移到没有贡献的人瓜分之。
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The company is giving back early gains after the it initially jumped on fourth‑quarter results.","content":"<p><html><body><strong>SoFi Technologies Inc</strong> (NASDAQ:SOFI) shares are dropping on Friday. The company is giving back early gains after the it initially jumped on stronger‑than‑expected fourth‑quarter results.</p><p><blockquote><html><body><strong>SoFi技术公司</strong>（纳斯达克：SOFI）股价周五下跌。该公司在最初因第四季度业绩强于预期而大幅上涨后，正在回吐早期涨幅。</body></html></blockquote></p><p> The company posted earnings of 13 cents per share, slightly above the 12 cents consensus estimate. Revenue also climbed sharply, rising $273.72 million from the same quarter a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>该公司公布的每股收益为13美分，略高于市场普遍预期的12美分。收入也大幅攀升，较去年同期增长2.7372亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>SoFi Reports Strong Guidance</h2> Looking ahead to full‑year 2026, SoFi expects to grow total members by at least 30% year-over-year and generate about $4.655 billion in adjusted net revenue, which also represents roughly 30% growth.</p><p><blockquote><h2>SoFi报告强有力的指导</h2>展望2026年全年，SoFi预计会员总数将同比增长至少30%，调整后净收入约为46.55亿美元，也代表着约30%的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Management is forecasting adjusted EBITDA of around $1.6 billion, implying a margin of about 34%. Adjusted net income is expected to reach roughly $825 million, or an 18% margin, with adjusted EPS projected at approximately 60 cents.</p><p><blockquote>管理层预测调整后EBITDA约为16亿美元，这意味着利润率约为34%。调整后净利润预计将达到约8.25亿美元，利润率为18%，调整后每股收益预计约为60美分。</blockquote></p><p> For the first-quarter of 2026, SoFi expects to bring in roughly $1.04 billion in adjusted revenue, generate about $300 million in adjusted EBITDA, earn around $160 million in adjusted net income and deliver adjusted earnings of approximately 12 cents per share.</p><p><blockquote>SoFi预计2026年第一季度调整后收入约为10.4亿美元，调整后EBITDA约为3亿美元，调整后净利润约为1.6亿美元，调整后每股收益约为12美分。</blockquote></p><p> Friday's pullback appears to reflect profit‑taking after the initial post‑earnings pop, which is a common reaction for stocks that have rallied heading into results.</p><p><blockquote>周五的回调似乎反映了财报发布后最初上涨后的获利了结，这是在业绩公布前上涨的股票的常见反应。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>What Do Analysts Have To Say?</h2> SoFi Technologies has seen a general increase in price target estimates from various analysts recently. Notably, on Jan. 6th, Barclays maintained an Equal-Weight rating on SoFi but raised its price target to $28, up from the previous figure of $23. On the same day, Goldman Sachs kept its Neutral rating while adjusting its price target down to $24 from an earlier target of $27.</p><p><blockquote><h2>分析师怎么说？</h2>最近，多位分析师普遍上调了SoFi Technologies的价格目标预期。值得注意的是，1月6日，巴克莱维持SoFi的等权重评级，但将目标价从之前的23美元上调至28美元。同日，高盛维持中性评级，同时将目标价从稍早的目标27美元下调至24美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the preceding months, other key actions included Truist Securities maintaining a Hold rating on SoFi but revising its target price. On Nov. 25th, it set the target at $28, down from $31 on Nov. 4th. Earlier, on Oct. 30th, UBS also maintained a Neutral rating, but significantly increased the target from $20.50 to $27.50.</p><p><blockquote>前几个月，其他关键行动包括Truist Securities维持SoFi的持有评级，但修改了目标价。11月25日，它将目标定为28美元，低于11月4日的31美元。此前10月30日，瑞银也维持中性评级，但将目标从20.50美元大幅上调至27.50美元。</blockquote></p><p> <strong>SOFI Price Action:</strong> SoFi shares were down 5.95% at $22.92 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro.</p><p><blockquote><strong>SOFI价格走势：</strong>根据Benzinga Pro的数据，截至周五发稿时，SoFi股价下跌5.95%，至22.92美元。</blockquote></p><p> <em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p><p><blockquote><em>图片：Shutterstock</em></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SoFi Stock Slides After Initial Surge On Strong Earnings<blockquote>SoFi股价因强劲盈利而初步飙升后下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoFi Stock Slides After Initial Surge On Strong Earnings<blockquote>SoFi股价因强劲盈利而初步飙升后下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-01-31 01:02</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><strong>SoFi Technologies Inc</strong> (NASDAQ:SOFI) shares are dropping on Friday. The company is giving back early gains after the it initially jumped on stronger‑than‑expected fourth‑quarter results.</p><p><blockquote><html><body><strong>SoFi技术公司</strong>（纳斯达克：SOFI）股价周五下跌。该公司在最初因第四季度业绩强于预期而大幅上涨后，正在回吐早期涨幅。</body></html></blockquote></p><p> The company posted earnings of 13 cents per share, slightly above the 12 cents consensus estimate. Revenue also climbed sharply, rising $273.72 million from the same quarter a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>该公司公布的每股收益为13美分，略高于市场普遍预期的12美分。收入也大幅攀升，较去年同期增长2.7372亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>SoFi Reports Strong Guidance</h2> Looking ahead to full‑year 2026, SoFi expects to grow total members by at least 30% year-over-year and generate about $4.655 billion in adjusted net revenue, which also represents roughly 30% growth.</p><p><blockquote><h2>SoFi报告强有力的指导</h2>展望2026年全年，SoFi预计会员总数将同比增长至少30%，调整后净收入约为46.55亿美元，也代表着约30%的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Management is forecasting adjusted EBITDA of around $1.6 billion, implying a margin of about 34%. Adjusted net income is expected to reach roughly $825 million, or an 18% margin, with adjusted EPS projected at approximately 60 cents.</p><p><blockquote>管理层预测调整后EBITDA约为16亿美元，这意味着利润率约为34%。调整后净利润预计将达到约8.25亿美元，利润率为18%，调整后每股收益预计约为60美分。</blockquote></p><p> For the first-quarter of 2026, SoFi expects to bring in roughly $1.04 billion in adjusted revenue, generate about $300 million in adjusted EBITDA, earn around $160 million in adjusted net income and deliver adjusted earnings of approximately 12 cents per share.</p><p><blockquote>SoFi预计2026年第一季度调整后收入约为10.4亿美元，调整后EBITDA约为3亿美元，调整后净利润约为1.6亿美元，调整后每股收益约为12美分。</blockquote></p><p> Friday's pullback appears to reflect profit‑taking after the initial post‑earnings pop, which is a common reaction for stocks that have rallied heading into results.</p><p><blockquote>周五的回调似乎反映了财报发布后最初上涨后的获利了结，这是在业绩公布前上涨的股票的常见反应。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>What Do Analysts Have To Say?</h2> SoFi Technologies has seen a general increase in price target estimates from various analysts recently. Notably, on Jan. 6th, Barclays maintained an Equal-Weight rating on SoFi but raised its price target to $28, up from the previous figure of $23. On the same day, Goldman Sachs kept its Neutral rating while adjusting its price target down to $24 from an earlier target of $27.</p><p><blockquote><h2>分析师怎么说？</h2>最近，多位分析师普遍上调了SoFi Technologies的价格目标预期。值得注意的是，1月6日，巴克莱维持SoFi的等权重评级，但将目标价从之前的23美元上调至28美元。同日，高盛维持中性评级，同时将目标价从稍早的目标27美元下调至24美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the preceding months, other key actions included Truist Securities maintaining a Hold rating on SoFi but revising its target price. On Nov. 25th, it set the target at $28, down from $31 on Nov. 4th. Earlier, on Oct. 30th, UBS also maintained a Neutral rating, but significantly increased the target from $20.50 to $27.50.</p><p><blockquote>前几个月，其他关键行动包括Truist Securities维持SoFi的持有评级，但修改了目标价。11月25日，它将目标定为28美元，低于11月4日的31美元。此前10月30日，瑞银也维持中性评级，但将目标从20.50美元大幅上调至27.50美元。</blockquote></p><p> <strong>SOFI Price Action:</strong> SoFi shares were down 5.95% at $22.92 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro.</p><p><blockquote><strong>SOFI价格走势：</strong>根据Benzinga Pro的数据，截至周五发稿时，SoFi股价下跌5.95%，至22.92美元。</blockquote></p><p> <em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p><p><blockquote><em>图片：Shutterstock</em></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4166":"消费信贷","SOFI":"SoFi Technologies Inc.","SOFX":"2倍做多SOFI ETF-Defiance","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/01/50273292/sofi-stock-slides-after-initial-surge-on-strong-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2607028564","content_text":"SoFi Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:SOFI) shares are dropping on Friday. The company is giving back early gains after the it initially jumped on stronger‑than‑expected fourth‑quarter results.\nThe company posted earnings of 13 cents per share, slightly above the 12 cents consensus estimate. Revenue also climbed sharply, rising $273.72 million from the same quarter a year ago.\nSoFi Reports Strong Guidance\nLooking ahead to full‑year 2026, SoFi expects to grow total members by at least 30% year-over-year and generate about $4.655 billion in adjusted net revenue, which also represents roughly 30% growth.\nManagement is forecasting adjusted EBITDA of around $1.6 billion, implying a margin of about 34%. Adjusted net income is expected to reach roughly $825 million, or an 18% margin, with adjusted EPS projected at approximately 60 cents.\nFor the first-quarter of 2026, SoFi expects to bring in roughly $1.04 billion in adjusted revenue, generate about $300 million in adjusted EBITDA, earn around $160 million in adjusted net income and deliver adjusted earnings of approximately 12 cents per share.\nFriday's pullback appears to reflect profit‑taking after the initial post‑earnings pop, which is a common reaction for stocks that have rallied heading into results.\nWhat Do Analysts Have To Say?\nSoFi Technologies has seen a general increase in price target estimates from various analysts recently. Notably, on Jan. 6th, Barclays maintained an Equal-Weight rating on SoFi but raised its price target to $28, up from the previous figure of $23. On the same day, Goldman Sachs kept its Neutral rating while adjusting its price target down to $24 from an earlier target of $27.\nIn the preceding months, other key actions included Truist Securities maintaining a Hold rating on SoFi but revising its target price. On Nov. 25th, it set the target at $28, down from $31 on Nov. 4th. Earlier, on Oct. 30th, UBS also maintained a Neutral rating, but significantly increased the target from $20.50 to $27.50.\nSOFI Price Action: SoFi shares were down 5.95% at $22.92 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro.\nImage: Shutterstock","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOFI":1.98,"SOFX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":55,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":419426277367896,"gmtCreate":1743430718784,"gmtModify":1743430867553,"author":{"id":"3541539072678932","authorId":"3541539072678932","name":"行走速度","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541539072678932","idStr":"3541539072678932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"主观预期飙升，实际生活中油价大幅下跌，到底咋回事","listText":"主观预期飙升，实际生活中油价大幅下跌，到底咋回事","text":"主观预期飙升，实际生活中油价大幅下跌，到底咋回事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/419426277367896","repostId":"2523663092","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2523663092","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1743290538,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2523663092?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-03-30 07:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股最大的空头：密歇根大学","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2523663092","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"自特朗普当选总统以来，过去6次密歇根大学通胀预期调查结果发布时，市场的反应都一样，美股出现了6次下跌。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>自特朗普当选总统以来，过去6次密歇根大学通胀预期调查结果发布时，市场的反应都一样，美股出现了6次下跌。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美股遭遇“黑色星期五”，三大股指全线走低，其中纳指跌2.7%领跌，公用事业板块成为唯一收涨的板块。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d19e93f7cd421037269978e2137d28ea\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"486\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美股重挫背后的“罪魁祸首”是密歇根大学。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">受关税威胁冲击，美国3月密歇根大学短期通胀预期飙升至4.9%，长期通胀预期也升至1993年以来最高，同时消费者信心创逾两年新低。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">自从特朗普当选以来，“硬数据”——即实际的经济数值——一直保持稳定。然而，在过去的三个月中，美国通胀“软数据”（基于调查和市场的通胀预期指标）急剧恶化，密歇根大学的消费者情绪调查是这种软数据暴跌的主要驱动力之一。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e326e8eade572d6aa9ae60f80ce7755\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"650\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>值得一提的是，不仅仅是本次，自特朗普当选总统以来，过去6次密歇根大学调查结果发布时，市场的反应都一样，美股出现了6次抛售。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最近几次的密歇根消费者调查表明，美国通胀预期已突破近年来的区间波动。此前相当长时间，密歇根5年通胀预期大体在2.9%-3.1%的窄幅波动区间。2022年6月美国通胀处于本轮峰值之际，该通胀预期初值一度达到3.3%，创下2008年以来的最高，而最新的长期通胀预期已显著高于疫情后的峰值水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f446ba065361544eb4228392c622ad\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"709\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于密歇根大学消费者长期通胀预期的飙升，此前美联储主席鲍威尔称，该通胀预期数据属于异常值。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过本周有几名票委“唱反调”，认为调查类的通胀预期数据应高度关注。鸽派票委、芝加哥联储主席表示，如果市场通胀预期也走高，将是“重大危险信号”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛则直言不讳地指出，投资者可以忽略密歇根大学的通胀预期数据。与其他调查相比，密歇根大学的调查在设计上存在诸多局限性。该调查的三个主要问题是：</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>通胀预期高度党派化：调查中的通胀预期已经变得极端党派化。</p></li><li><p>民主党人占比过高：参与密歇根大学调查的受访者中，民主党人的比例一直高于共和党人。</p></li><li><p>调查方式改变：从电话调查转向在线调查导致了对通胀预期的更极端的回答。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛认为，这些因素共同推动密歇根大学的短期通胀预期约1.3个百分点，长期通胀预期约0.5个百分点。特别是党派构成变化和党派立场加剧，在2月导致一年期通胀预期大幅上升了1个百分点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>展望未来，投资者需要密切关注即将于4月11日和25日公布的密歇根大学调查数据，这可能会引发新一轮的市场波动。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着4月2日关税日来临，这一次的情况会有所不同吗？市场会反弹吗？据央视新闻，美国总统特朗普此前在国会联席会议上发表讲话时重申，将于4月2日开始征收对等关税。目前欧洲已经提出了让步，计划制定“让步清单”，而印度、英国也发出来示好信号，加拿大尚未发出相关信号。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股最大的空头：密歇根大学</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股最大的空头：密歇根大学\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-03-30 07:22 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3744193><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>自特朗普当选总统以来，过去6次密歇根大学通胀预期调查结果发布时，市场的反应都一样，美股出现了6次下跌。美股遭遇“黑色星期五”，三大股指全线走低，其中纳指跌2.7%领跌，公用事业板块成为唯一收涨的板块。美股重挫背后的“罪魁祸首”是密歇根大学。受关税威胁冲击，美国3月密歇根大学短期通胀预期飙升至4.9%，长期通胀预期也升至1993年以来最高，同时消费者信心创逾两年新低。自从特朗普当选以来，“硬数据”—...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3744193\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cd37284d0b881857f632154756e4de3","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3744193","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2523663092","content_text":"自特朗普当选总统以来，过去6次密歇根大学通胀预期调查结果发布时，市场的反应都一样，美股出现了6次下跌。美股遭遇“黑色星期五”，三大股指全线走低，其中纳指跌2.7%领跌，公用事业板块成为唯一收涨的板块。美股重挫背后的“罪魁祸首”是密歇根大学。受关税威胁冲击，美国3月密歇根大学短期通胀预期飙升至4.9%，长期通胀预期也升至1993年以来最高，同时消费者信心创逾两年新低。自从特朗普当选以来，“硬数据”——即实际的经济数值——一直保持稳定。然而，在过去的三个月中，美国通胀“软数据”（基于调查和市场的通胀预期指标）急剧恶化，密歇根大学的消费者情绪调查是这种软数据暴跌的主要驱动力之一。值得一提的是，不仅仅是本次，自特朗普当选总统以来，过去6次密歇根大学调查结果发布时，市场的反应都一样，美股出现了6次抛售。最近几次的密歇根消费者调查表明，美国通胀预期已突破近年来的区间波动。此前相当长时间，密歇根5年通胀预期大体在2.9%-3.1%的窄幅波动区间。2022年6月美国通胀处于本轮峰值之际，该通胀预期初值一度达到3.3%，创下2008年以来的最高，而最新的长期通胀预期已显著高于疫情后的峰值水平。对于密歇根大学消费者长期通胀预期的飙升，此前美联储主席鲍威尔称，该通胀预期数据属于异常值。不过本周有几名票委“唱反调”，认为调查类的通胀预期数据应高度关注。鸽派票委、芝加哥联储主席表示，如果市场通胀预期也走高，将是“重大危险信号”。高盛则直言不讳地指出，投资者可以忽略密歇根大学的通胀预期数据。与其他调查相比，密歇根大学的调查在设计上存在诸多局限性。该调查的三个主要问题是：通胀预期高度党派化：调查中的通胀预期已经变得极端党派化。民主党人占比过高：参与密歇根大学调查的受访者中，民主党人的比例一直高于共和党人。调查方式改变：从电话调查转向在线调查导致了对通胀预期的更极端的回答。高盛认为，这些因素共同推动密歇根大学的短期通胀预期约1.3个百分点，长期通胀预期约0.5个百分点。特别是党派构成变化和党派立场加剧，在2月导致一年期通胀预期大幅上升了1个百分点。展望未来，投资者需要密切关注即将于4月11日和25日公布的密歇根大学调查数据，这可能会引发新一轮的市场波动。随着4月2日关税日来临，这一次的情况会有所不同吗？市场会反弹吗？据央视新闻，美国总统特朗普此前在国会联席会议上发表讲话时重申，将于4月2日开始征收对等关税。目前欧洲已经提出了让步，计划制定“让步清单”，而印度、英国也发出来示好信号，加拿大尚未发出相关信号。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":1.1,".SPX":1.1,".DJI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":377691551711616,"gmtCreate":1733240104535,"gmtModify":1733240218987,"author":{"id":"3541539072678932","authorId":"3541539072678932","name":"行走速度","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541539072678932","idStr":"3541539072678932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377691551711616","repostId":"2488693392","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":377665591505328,"gmtCreate":1733240095294,"gmtModify":1733240216670,"author":{"id":"3541539072678932","authorId":"3541539072678932","name":"行走速度","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541539072678932","idStr":"3541539072678932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"民左就是剥削做贡献的人，转移到没有贡献的人瓜分之。","listText":"民左就是剥削做贡献的人，转移到没有贡献的人瓜分之。","text":"民左就是剥削做贡献的人，转移到没有贡献的人瓜分之。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377665591505328","repostId":"2488693392","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":528440139514496,"gmtCreate":1770044187336,"gmtModify":1770044384677,"author":{"id":"3541539072678932","authorId":"3541539072678932","name":"行走速度","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3541539072678932","authorIdStr":"3541539072678932"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"华尔街真会胡说八道，连k线图都懒得看，飙升后下跌？飙升过吗？胡说八道说明了啥？这些人肯定不是笨蛋，那会是什么蛋？","listText":"华尔街真会胡说八道，连k线图都懒得看，飙升后下跌？飙升过吗？胡说八道说明了啥？这些人肯定不是笨蛋，那会是什么蛋？","text":"华尔街真会胡说八道，连k线图都懒得看，飙升后下跌？飙升过吗？胡说八道说明了啥？这些人肯定不是笨蛋，那会是什么蛋？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/528440139514496","repostId":"2607028564","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2607028564","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1769792579,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2607028564?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-31 01:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SoFi Stock Slides After Initial Surge On Strong Earnings<blockquote>SoFi股价因强劲盈利而初步飙升后下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2607028564","media":"Benzinga","summary":"SoFi Technologies shares are dropping. The company is giving back early gains after the it initially jumped on fourth‑quarter results.","content":"<p><html><body><strong>SoFi Technologies Inc</strong> (NASDAQ:SOFI) shares are dropping on Friday. The company is giving back early gains after the it initially jumped on stronger‑than‑expected fourth‑quarter results.</p><p><blockquote><html><body><strong>SoFi技术公司</strong>（纳斯达克：SOFI）股价周五下跌。该公司在最初因第四季度业绩强于预期而大幅上涨后，正在回吐早期涨幅。</body></html></blockquote></p><p> The company posted earnings of 13 cents per share, slightly above the 12 cents consensus estimate. Revenue also climbed sharply, rising $273.72 million from the same quarter a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>该公司公布的每股收益为13美分，略高于市场普遍预期的12美分。收入也大幅攀升，较去年同期增长2.7372亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>SoFi Reports Strong Guidance</h2> Looking ahead to full‑year 2026, SoFi expects to grow total members by at least 30% year-over-year and generate about $4.655 billion in adjusted net revenue, which also represents roughly 30% growth.</p><p><blockquote><h2>SoFi报告强有力的指导</h2>展望2026年全年，SoFi预计会员总数将同比增长至少30%，调整后净收入约为46.55亿美元，也代表着约30%的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Management is forecasting adjusted EBITDA of around $1.6 billion, implying a margin of about 34%. Adjusted net income is expected to reach roughly $825 million, or an 18% margin, with adjusted EPS projected at approximately 60 cents.</p><p><blockquote>管理层预测调整后EBITDA约为16亿美元，这意味着利润率约为34%。调整后净利润预计将达到约8.25亿美元，利润率为18%，调整后每股收益预计约为60美分。</blockquote></p><p> For the first-quarter of 2026, SoFi expects to bring in roughly $1.04 billion in adjusted revenue, generate about $300 million in adjusted EBITDA, earn around $160 million in adjusted net income and deliver adjusted earnings of approximately 12 cents per share.</p><p><blockquote>SoFi预计2026年第一季度调整后收入约为10.4亿美元，调整后EBITDA约为3亿美元，调整后净利润约为1.6亿美元，调整后每股收益约为12美分。</blockquote></p><p> Friday's pullback appears to reflect profit‑taking after the initial post‑earnings pop, which is a common reaction for stocks that have rallied heading into results.</p><p><blockquote>周五的回调似乎反映了财报发布后最初上涨后的获利了结，这是在业绩公布前上涨的股票的常见反应。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>What Do Analysts Have To Say?</h2> SoFi Technologies has seen a general increase in price target estimates from various analysts recently. Notably, on Jan. 6th, Barclays maintained an Equal-Weight rating on SoFi but raised its price target to $28, up from the previous figure of $23. On the same day, Goldman Sachs kept its Neutral rating while adjusting its price target down to $24 from an earlier target of $27.</p><p><blockquote><h2>分析师怎么说？</h2>最近，多位分析师普遍上调了SoFi Technologies的价格目标预期。值得注意的是，1月6日，巴克莱维持SoFi的等权重评级，但将目标价从之前的23美元上调至28美元。同日，高盛维持中性评级，同时将目标价从稍早的目标27美元下调至24美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the preceding months, other key actions included Truist Securities maintaining a Hold rating on SoFi but revising its target price. On Nov. 25th, it set the target at $28, down from $31 on Nov. 4th. Earlier, on Oct. 30th, UBS also maintained a Neutral rating, but significantly increased the target from $20.50 to $27.50.</p><p><blockquote>前几个月，其他关键行动包括Truist Securities维持SoFi的持有评级，但修改了目标价。11月25日，它将目标定为28美元，低于11月4日的31美元。此前10月30日，瑞银也维持中性评级，但将目标从20.50美元大幅上调至27.50美元。</blockquote></p><p> <strong>SOFI Price Action:</strong> SoFi shares were down 5.95% at $22.92 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro.</p><p><blockquote><strong>SOFI价格走势：</strong>根据Benzinga Pro的数据，截至周五发稿时，SoFi股价下跌5.95%，至22.92美元。</blockquote></p><p> <em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p><p><blockquote><em>图片：Shutterstock</em></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SoFi Stock Slides After Initial Surge On Strong Earnings<blockquote>SoFi股价因强劲盈利而初步飙升后下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoFi Stock Slides After Initial Surge On Strong Earnings<blockquote>SoFi股价因强劲盈利而初步飙升后下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-01-31 01:02</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><strong>SoFi Technologies Inc</strong> (NASDAQ:SOFI) shares are dropping on Friday. The company is giving back early gains after the it initially jumped on stronger‑than‑expected fourth‑quarter results.</p><p><blockquote><html><body><strong>SoFi技术公司</strong>（纳斯达克：SOFI）股价周五下跌。该公司在最初因第四季度业绩强于预期而大幅上涨后，正在回吐早期涨幅。</body></html></blockquote></p><p> The company posted earnings of 13 cents per share, slightly above the 12 cents consensus estimate. Revenue also climbed sharply, rising $273.72 million from the same quarter a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>该公司公布的每股收益为13美分，略高于市场普遍预期的12美分。收入也大幅攀升，较去年同期增长2.7372亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>SoFi Reports Strong Guidance</h2> Looking ahead to full‑year 2026, SoFi expects to grow total members by at least 30% year-over-year and generate about $4.655 billion in adjusted net revenue, which also represents roughly 30% growth.</p><p><blockquote><h2>SoFi报告强有力的指导</h2>展望2026年全年，SoFi预计会员总数将同比增长至少30%，调整后净收入约为46.55亿美元，也代表着约30%的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Management is forecasting adjusted EBITDA of around $1.6 billion, implying a margin of about 34%. Adjusted net income is expected to reach roughly $825 million, or an 18% margin, with adjusted EPS projected at approximately 60 cents.</p><p><blockquote>管理层预测调整后EBITDA约为16亿美元，这意味着利润率约为34%。调整后净利润预计将达到约8.25亿美元，利润率为18%，调整后每股收益预计约为60美分。</blockquote></p><p> For the first-quarter of 2026, SoFi expects to bring in roughly $1.04 billion in adjusted revenue, generate about $300 million in adjusted EBITDA, earn around $160 million in adjusted net income and deliver adjusted earnings of approximately 12 cents per share.</p><p><blockquote>SoFi预计2026年第一季度调整后收入约为10.4亿美元，调整后EBITDA约为3亿美元，调整后净利润约为1.6亿美元，调整后每股收益约为12美分。</blockquote></p><p> Friday's pullback appears to reflect profit‑taking after the initial post‑earnings pop, which is a common reaction for stocks that have rallied heading into results.</p><p><blockquote>周五的回调似乎反映了财报发布后最初上涨后的获利了结，这是在业绩公布前上涨的股票的常见反应。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>What Do Analysts Have To Say?</h2> SoFi Technologies has seen a general increase in price target estimates from various analysts recently. Notably, on Jan. 6th, Barclays maintained an Equal-Weight rating on SoFi but raised its price target to $28, up from the previous figure of $23. On the same day, Goldman Sachs kept its Neutral rating while adjusting its price target down to $24 from an earlier target of $27.</p><p><blockquote><h2>分析师怎么说？</h2>最近，多位分析师普遍上调了SoFi Technologies的价格目标预期。值得注意的是，1月6日，巴克莱维持SoFi的等权重评级，但将目标价从之前的23美元上调至28美元。同日，高盛维持中性评级，同时将目标价从稍早的目标27美元下调至24美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the preceding months, other key actions included Truist Securities maintaining a Hold rating on SoFi but revising its target price. On Nov. 25th, it set the target at $28, down from $31 on Nov. 4th. Earlier, on Oct. 30th, UBS also maintained a Neutral rating, but significantly increased the target from $20.50 to $27.50.</p><p><blockquote>前几个月，其他关键行动包括Truist Securities维持SoFi的持有评级，但修改了目标价。11月25日，它将目标定为28美元，低于11月4日的31美元。此前10月30日，瑞银也维持中性评级，但将目标从20.50美元大幅上调至27.50美元。</blockquote></p><p> <strong>SOFI Price Action:</strong> SoFi shares were down 5.95% at $22.92 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro.</p><p><blockquote><strong>SOFI价格走势：</strong>根据Benzinga Pro的数据，截至周五发稿时，SoFi股价下跌5.95%，至22.92美元。</blockquote></p><p> <em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p><p><blockquote><em>图片：Shutterstock</em></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4166":"消费信贷","SOFI":"SoFi Technologies Inc.","SOFX":"2倍做多SOFI ETF-Defiance","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/01/50273292/sofi-stock-slides-after-initial-surge-on-strong-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2607028564","content_text":"SoFi Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:SOFI) shares are dropping on Friday. The company is giving back early gains after the it initially jumped on stronger‑than‑expected fourth‑quarter results.\nThe company posted earnings of 13 cents per share, slightly above the 12 cents consensus estimate. Revenue also climbed sharply, rising $273.72 million from the same quarter a year ago.\nSoFi Reports Strong Guidance\nLooking ahead to full‑year 2026, SoFi expects to grow total members by at least 30% year-over-year and generate about $4.655 billion in adjusted net revenue, which also represents roughly 30% growth.\nManagement is forecasting adjusted EBITDA of around $1.6 billion, implying a margin of about 34%. Adjusted net income is expected to reach roughly $825 million, or an 18% margin, with adjusted EPS projected at approximately 60 cents.\nFor the first-quarter of 2026, SoFi expects to bring in roughly $1.04 billion in adjusted revenue, generate about $300 million in adjusted EBITDA, earn around $160 million in adjusted net income and deliver adjusted earnings of approximately 12 cents per share.\nFriday's pullback appears to reflect profit‑taking after the initial post‑earnings pop, which is a common reaction for stocks that have rallied heading into results.\nWhat Do Analysts Have To Say?\nSoFi Technologies has seen a general increase in price target estimates from various analysts recently. Notably, on Jan. 6th, Barclays maintained an Equal-Weight rating on SoFi but raised its price target to $28, up from the previous figure of $23. On the same day, Goldman Sachs kept its Neutral rating while adjusting its price target down to $24 from an earlier target of $27.\nIn the preceding months, other key actions included Truist Securities maintaining a Hold rating on SoFi but revising its target price. On Nov. 25th, it set the target at $28, down from $31 on Nov. 4th. Earlier, on Oct. 30th, UBS also maintained a Neutral rating, but significantly increased the target from $20.50 to $27.50.\nSOFI Price Action: SoFi shares were down 5.95% at $22.92 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro.\nImage: Shutterstock","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOFI":1.98,"SOFX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":55,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":419426277367896,"gmtCreate":1743430718784,"gmtModify":1743430867553,"author":{"id":"3541539072678932","authorId":"3541539072678932","name":"行走速度","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3541539072678932","authorIdStr":"3541539072678932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"主观预期飙升，实际生活中油价大幅下跌，到底咋回事","listText":"主观预期飙升，实际生活中油价大幅下跌，到底咋回事","text":"主观预期飙升，实际生活中油价大幅下跌，到底咋回事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/419426277367896","repostId":"2523663092","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2523663092","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1743290538,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2523663092?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-03-30 07:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股最大的空头：密歇根大学","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2523663092","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"自特朗普当选总统以来，过去6次密歇根大学通胀预期调查结果发布时，市场的反应都一样，美股出现了6次下跌。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>自特朗普当选总统以来，过去6次密歇根大学通胀预期调查结果发布时，市场的反应都一样，美股出现了6次下跌。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美股遭遇“黑色星期五”，三大股指全线走低，其中纳指跌2.7%领跌，公用事业板块成为唯一收涨的板块。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d19e93f7cd421037269978e2137d28ea\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"486\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美股重挫背后的“罪魁祸首”是密歇根大学。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">受关税威胁冲击，美国3月密歇根大学短期通胀预期飙升至4.9%，长期通胀预期也升至1993年以来最高，同时消费者信心创逾两年新低。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">自从特朗普当选以来，“硬数据”——即实际的经济数值——一直保持稳定。然而，在过去的三个月中，美国通胀“软数据”（基于调查和市场的通胀预期指标）急剧恶化，密歇根大学的消费者情绪调查是这种软数据暴跌的主要驱动力之一。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e326e8eade572d6aa9ae60f80ce7755\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"650\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>值得一提的是，不仅仅是本次，自特朗普当选总统以来，过去6次密歇根大学调查结果发布时，市场的反应都一样，美股出现了6次抛售。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最近几次的密歇根消费者调查表明，美国通胀预期已突破近年来的区间波动。此前相当长时间，密歇根5年通胀预期大体在2.9%-3.1%的窄幅波动区间。2022年6月美国通胀处于本轮峰值之际，该通胀预期初值一度达到3.3%，创下2008年以来的最高，而最新的长期通胀预期已显著高于疫情后的峰值水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f446ba065361544eb4228392c622ad\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"709\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于密歇根大学消费者长期通胀预期的飙升，此前美联储主席鲍威尔称，该通胀预期数据属于异常值。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过本周有几名票委“唱反调”，认为调查类的通胀预期数据应高度关注。鸽派票委、芝加哥联储主席表示，如果市场通胀预期也走高，将是“重大危险信号”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛则直言不讳地指出，投资者可以忽略密歇根大学的通胀预期数据。与其他调查相比，密歇根大学的调查在设计上存在诸多局限性。该调查的三个主要问题是：</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>通胀预期高度党派化：调查中的通胀预期已经变得极端党派化。</p></li><li><p>民主党人占比过高：参与密歇根大学调查的受访者中，民主党人的比例一直高于共和党人。</p></li><li><p>调查方式改变：从电话调查转向在线调查导致了对通胀预期的更极端的回答。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛认为，这些因素共同推动密歇根大学的短期通胀预期约1.3个百分点，长期通胀预期约0.5个百分点。特别是党派构成变化和党派立场加剧，在2月导致一年期通胀预期大幅上升了1个百分点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>展望未来，投资者需要密切关注即将于4月11日和25日公布的密歇根大学调查数据，这可能会引发新一轮的市场波动。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着4月2日关税日来临，这一次的情况会有所不同吗？市场会反弹吗？据央视新闻，美国总统特朗普此前在国会联席会议上发表讲话时重申，将于4月2日开始征收对等关税。目前欧洲已经提出了让步，计划制定“让步清单”，而印度、英国也发出来示好信号，加拿大尚未发出相关信号。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股最大的空头：密歇根大学\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-03-30 07:22 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3744193><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>自特朗普当选总统以来，过去6次密歇根大学通胀预期调查结果发布时，市场的反应都一样，美股出现了6次下跌。美股遭遇“黑色星期五”，三大股指全线走低，其中纳指跌2.7%领跌，公用事业板块成为唯一收涨的板块。美股重挫背后的“罪魁祸首”是密歇根大学。受关税威胁冲击，美国3月密歇根大学短期通胀预期飙升至4.9%，长期通胀预期也升至1993年以来最高，同时消费者信心创逾两年新低。自从特朗普当选以来，“硬数据”—...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3744193\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cd37284d0b881857f632154756e4de3","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3744193","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2523663092","content_text":"自特朗普当选总统以来，过去6次密歇根大学通胀预期调查结果发布时，市场的反应都一样，美股出现了6次下跌。美股遭遇“黑色星期五”，三大股指全线走低，其中纳指跌2.7%领跌，公用事业板块成为唯一收涨的板块。美股重挫背后的“罪魁祸首”是密歇根大学。受关税威胁冲击，美国3月密歇根大学短期通胀预期飙升至4.9%，长期通胀预期也升至1993年以来最高，同时消费者信心创逾两年新低。自从特朗普当选以来，“硬数据”——即实际的经济数值——一直保持稳定。然而，在过去的三个月中，美国通胀“软数据”（基于调查和市场的通胀预期指标）急剧恶化，密歇根大学的消费者情绪调查是这种软数据暴跌的主要驱动力之一。值得一提的是，不仅仅是本次，自特朗普当选总统以来，过去6次密歇根大学调查结果发布时，市场的反应都一样，美股出现了6次抛售。最近几次的密歇根消费者调查表明，美国通胀预期已突破近年来的区间波动。此前相当长时间，密歇根5年通胀预期大体在2.9%-3.1%的窄幅波动区间。2022年6月美国通胀处于本轮峰值之际，该通胀预期初值一度达到3.3%，创下2008年以来的最高，而最新的长期通胀预期已显著高于疫情后的峰值水平。对于密歇根大学消费者长期通胀预期的飙升，此前美联储主席鲍威尔称，该通胀预期数据属于异常值。不过本周有几名票委“唱反调”，认为调查类的通胀预期数据应高度关注。鸽派票委、芝加哥联储主席表示，如果市场通胀预期也走高，将是“重大危险信号”。高盛则直言不讳地指出，投资者可以忽略密歇根大学的通胀预期数据。与其他调查相比，密歇根大学的调查在设计上存在诸多局限性。该调查的三个主要问题是：通胀预期高度党派化：调查中的通胀预期已经变得极端党派化。民主党人占比过高：参与密歇根大学调查的受访者中，民主党人的比例一直高于共和党人。调查方式改变：从电话调查转向在线调查导致了对通胀预期的更极端的回答。高盛认为，这些因素共同推动密歇根大学的短期通胀预期约1.3个百分点，长期通胀预期约0.5个百分点。特别是党派构成变化和党派立场加剧，在2月导致一年期通胀预期大幅上升了1个百分点。展望未来，投资者需要密切关注即将于4月11日和25日公布的密歇根大学调查数据，这可能会引发新一轮的市场波动。随着4月2日关税日来临，这一次的情况会有所不同吗？市场会反弹吗？据央视新闻，美国总统特朗普此前在国会联席会议上发表讲话时重申，将于4月2日开始征收对等关税。目前欧洲已经提出了让步，计划制定“让步清单”，而印度、英国也发出来示好信号，加拿大尚未发出相关信号。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":1.1,".SPX":1.1,".DJI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":377691551711616,"gmtCreate":1733240104535,"gmtModify":1733240218987,"author":{"id":"3541539072678932","authorId":"3541539072678932","name":"行走速度","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3541539072678932","authorIdStr":"3541539072678932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377691551711616","repostId":"2488693392","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":377665591505328,"gmtCreate":1733240095294,"gmtModify":1733240216670,"author":{"id":"3541539072678932","authorId":"3541539072678932","name":"行走速度","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3541539072678932","authorIdStr":"3541539072678932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"民左就是剥削做贡献的人，转移到没有贡献的人瓜分之。","listText":"民左就是剥削做贡献的人，转移到没有贡献的人瓜分之。","text":"民左就是剥削做贡献的人，转移到没有贡献的人瓜分之。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377665591505328","repostId":"2488693392","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
