BenBina的个人主页 - 老虎社区

BenBina

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IP属地：重庆

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0勋章

22:03

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 盘后200还是250，it's a question

20:31

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 终于要交卷了。大胆预测-10%到10%的波动

05-19 22:55

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 最**的行为就是买了你的期权，股价波动太小，时间根本耗不起

05-19 21:40

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ 见鬼了。突然经历了什么

05-19 19:32

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 特么的能不能痛快点

05-19 12:40

别说2028，涨了50倍早就透支十年后的股价。。。

大小摩一起喊：长协（LTA）推动存储公司重估，市场尚未完全定价

05-19 10:39

$理想汽车-W(02015)$ 要是能翻红，我就服

05-18 23:47

$闪迪(SNDK)$ 最高点1600整，庄家控盘确实牛，说明16（要溜）

05-18 22:58

$美光科技(MU)$ 本周五应该会跌到5字头

05-18 22:33

$闪迪(SNDK)$ 离改名闪崩不远了，加油。

05-14

明天大跌无疑了

中芯国际：Q1销售收入为25.05亿美元，同比增长11.5%

05-14

$思科(CSCO)$ 注定你是防御性标的，几十年的历史证明不会大涨，今晚开盘估计回落

05-13

$美光科技(MU)$ 今天只是小雨，大雨，暴雨，雷电，还在后面

05-12

$闪迪(SNDK)$ 闪迪改名闪崩

05-12

美光将成为世界上第一个也是唯一一个市值突破100万亿美元的公司。

05-12

未经审核的意思是这个公告可以是假的

泡泡玛特：2026年第一季度整体收益同比增长75%-80%

05-12

$南方两倍做多海力士(07709)$ 今年之内跌回10块

05-11

$美光科技(MU)$ 直接涨到1000，然后跌到100

05-05

$美光科技(MU)$ 巴菲特等你出现泡沫后再抄底，他说今年没泡沫破灭跌70%

04-30

反正财报大跌，就一起发利空了。牛啊

Meta Platforms计划通过债券发行筹集高达250亿美元

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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订单排到2040年了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":565936757729000,"gmtCreate":1779202543231,"gmtModify":1779202545682,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3540680319507322","authorIdStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 最**的行为就是买了你的期权，股价波动太小，时间根本耗不起","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 最**的行为就是买了你的期权，股价波动太小，时间根本耗不起","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 最**的行为就是买了你的期权，股价波动太小，时间根本耗不起","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/565936757729000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":565918580803000,"gmtCreate":1779198054934,"gmtModify":1779198415288,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3540680319507322","authorIdStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOXL\">$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$&nbsp;</a> 见鬼了。突然经历了什么","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOXL\">$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$&nbsp;</a> 见鬼了。突然经历了什么","text":"$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ 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[开心]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":565886787512408,"gmtCreate":1779190346285,"gmtModify":1779190530902,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3540680319507322","authorIdStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 特么的能不能痛快点","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 特么的能不能痛快点","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 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11:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"大小摩一起喊：长协（LTA）推动存储公司重估，市场尚未完全定价","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2636888641","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"存储芯片正从周期性大宗商品，跃升为AI基础设施的战略资源。摩与小摩相继表示，长期供货协议（LTA）正将存储“涨价-扩产-崩价”的传统周期逻辑，改写为预付款锁量、价格有底、盈利可见的新范式。一旦估值框架从市净率P/B切换至市盈率P/E，SK海力士等龙头或存38%以上重估空间，而市场尚未对此“买单”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>存储芯片正在从周期性大宗商品，变成AI基础设施的战略性资源——而这一转变的核心机制，叫做长期供货协议（LTA）。</p><p>据消息，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>近日相继发布针对全球存储行业的深度研究，焦点都落在同一个变量上：存储长期供货协议，Long-Term Agreement，简称LTA。<strong>过去，存储行业的核心叙事是涨价、扩产、供过于求、价格下跌，再重新出清。现在，AI客户希望提前锁供应，存储厂商希望提前锁订单和价格，周期的波动幅度可能被压低。</strong></p><p>摩根士丹利科技硬件团队Shawn Kim在研究中写道：“内存已成为AI基础设施中的关键瓶颈。客户为确保供应而签订的LTA，<strong>正在把一个传统周期业务，转变为有保障、高利润、长期收入流。</strong>”这句话概括了该行的核心判断：<strong>市场如果仍按传统周期股给存储公司估值，可能低估了未来收入和现金流的稳定性。</strong></p><p>摩根大通Jay Kwon团队给出的表述更直接：<strong>“LTA为存储厂商铺平了通向新估值框架的道路。”</strong>他的逻辑是，买方不只是怕涨价，更怕买不到；卖方也不只是想涨价，更想在投入巨额资本开支前拿到订单可见度。LTA把双方的焦虑写进合同。</p><p>投资者真正关心的不是“签了几年”，而是合同有没有约束力、现金是否提前进账、价格下行有没有保护。如果这些条款足够硬，存储公司的盈利就不再完全跟着现货价格上下跳，<strong>市净率（P/B）估值框架也可能让位于市盈率（P/E）框架。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2645398625\">LTA不是新鲜事，但这次不一样</h2><p>存储行业并非第一次出现“长协”。2017年DRAM短缺周期中，厂商也签过多年框架合同，但需求一旦降温，价格跌超40%，客户照样压价或推迟出货，合同形同虚设。</p><p>这一次的区别在于条款结构：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>预付款规模</strong>：部分供应商已收取2027年需求50%的预付款，2028年达到100%</p></li><li><p><strong>价格机制</strong>：设有价格区间，含上限（collar/ceiling）和下限保护，而非浮动随行就市</p></li><li><p><strong>违约成本</strong>：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>CEO在财报电话会上直接说，“客户通过各类金融工具实实在在地抵押了数十亿美元，如果他们不按季度完成采购义务，这笔钱立刻归我们”</p></li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>执行副总裁金在俊在1Q26财报会上的表述同样直白：“与基于互信的现有供货合同不同，这些多年期合同具有更高层次的约束性承诺。”</p><p>SK海力士总裁郭诺正在今年3月股东大会上说，公司正在“综合评估各种结构性方案”——背后意思是，单纯的罚款机制已不够用，需要从合同架构层面锁死双方的退出路径。</p><p>这类协议之所以难以撕毁，根本原因是预付款的会计属性：一旦打款，在客户账上计为资本支出或预付资产，重新谈判的成本远高于违约罚款。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d238c01bafe3b66ce8ac67ec9b56e783\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"478\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2354947181\">供给缺口是谈判筹码的根源</h2><p>超大规模云服务商（CSP）愿意签这类合同，并不是好心，而是被逼的。</p><p>AI推理需求的增长速度，远超DRAM产能的物理扩张极限。摩根大通测算，<strong>2026-2030年，全球前三大DRAM厂商的晶圆产能累计短缺约44.4万片/月（以等效月产能计）。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ae8d73c0ca6faccd3d6aed6ae4a64ce4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"185\"/></p><p>从需求端看，AI半导体市场规模预计到2030年增长50-60%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>近期将半导体总可寻址市场（TAM）预测从1万亿美元上调至1.5万亿美元。而DRAM供给受EUV光刻机产能瓶颈制约，2027年起bit出货量增速可能被压制在每年30%以内。</p><p>两条线的剪刀差，就是存储厂商谈判桌上最硬的筹码。</p><p><strong>过去存储厂商扩产的逻辑是“备货式生产”（Make-to-Stock）——先建产能，再等需求。现在超大规模云厂商为了锁量，倒过来推动存储厂商转向“按单生产”（Make-to-Order）的模式，预付款本质上是在替存储厂商的资本开支做担保。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3147018901\">卖方要的不是盲目扩产，而是订单兜底</h2><p>存储厂商也有自己的问题：<strong>扩产越来越贵。</strong></p><p>每一bit新增产能的成本在上升，原因包括基础设施成本、晶圆设备价值、后道封装资本开支承诺等。厂商不愿意只凭需求预测扩产，因为一旦AI需求低于预期，或者客户库存重新积压，行业又会回到过去的价格下行周期。</p><p><strong>LTA的作用就是把“可能的需求”变成“更确定的订单”。有了预付款、数量承诺和价格保护，扩产更像是为了已确认需求，而不是为了赌下一轮景气。</strong></p><p>这也解释了为什么高LTA占比未必会刺激供应商激进扩产。在严重短缺环境下，供应商更可能优先维护高质量合同，而不是提前把产能打满。合同质量，比单纯扩产速度更重要。</p><p>买方也不会无条件接受。可能出现的保护措施包括：供应商未能交货时的罚则、银行或第三方担保，甚至讨论资本开支补贴。不过，产能补贴会影响供应商对产线运营的灵活性，因此在合同谈判中并非最受欢迎的安排。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/30d432972e3d5c0543ea055b66fd5809\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"316\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_327530951\">估值框架切换：从台积电身上找参照</h2><p><strong>长期以来，存储股都用市净率（P/B）定价——因为盈利波动太大，用市盈率没有意义。但一旦LTA锁定了未来3-5年的量和价，盈利的可预测性就完全不同了。</strong></p><p>参照系是台积电。2015年之前，台积电也被当作重资产周期股，用P/B估值。2014年台积电拿下<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>独供合同之后，需求能见度提升，机构投资者开始切换到P/E框架。此后台积电的市盈率在10-30倍区间运行，均值约17倍。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9bcaea957fcdab65fd896778e177c5b1\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"306\"/></p><p>目前存储股（SK海力士+<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>合计）的远期市盈率约为7.3倍，过去11年（剔除2022-2023年下行周期）均值约9倍，与台积电的差距始终维持在负50%至负80%区间。</p><p>分析师认为，<strong>存储估值要完成框架切换，需要满足五个条件：周期性显著弱化、定价权具有持久性、LTA和HBM占收入比例持续提升、产能扩张保持纪律同时产生可观自由现金流、持续的研发合作加深差异化护城河。</strong></p><p>这五个条件，没有一个是轻易能打勾的——这也是摩根大通说“投资者路径会很曲折”的原因。</p><h2 id=\"id_3172469577\">摩根士丹利的具体测算：市场定价到底低估多少？</h2><p>该行做了一个敏感性<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>，假设HBM已经100%纳入LTA，普通存储（commodity memory）LTA覆盖率从50%到80%不等，对应LTA部分给予6-12倍市盈率，非LTA部分给予5倍市盈率。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d3292f12fa9f820965380d6fca342d0a\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"428\"/></p><p>结论：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>最保守情形</strong>（50%覆盖率+6倍LTA市盈率）：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>和SK海力士隐含整体市盈率约5.5倍，已高于三星当前2027年预期市盈率5.3倍和SK海力士的5.0倍</p></li><li><p><strong>中性情形</strong>（70%覆盖率+10倍LTA市盈率）：两者隐含市盈率升至约8.5-8.6倍</p></li><li><p><strong>乐观情形</strong>（80%覆盖率+12倍LTA市盈率）：两者隐含市盈率升至约10.5-10.7倍</p></li></ul><p>换句话说，市场目前对LTA背书的盈利，定价方式和普通周期商品盈利一模一样——如果这些合同真的像公司说的那样不可撤销、有现金担保，这个定价就是错的。</p><h2 id=\"id_1092725493\">LTA对盈利预测的实际影响</h2><p><strong>以SK海力士为例，摩根士丹利将其2026-2028年EPS预测分别上调6%、3%和14%，目标价从170万韩元上调至260万韩元，较当前股价（188万韩元）有38%上行空间。</strong></p><p>调整背后有两个关键假设变化：</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>普通DRAM定价</strong>：原先预测2028年进入下行周期，现在改为1H28维持平稳，因为LTA提供了价格下限保护</p></li><li><p><strong>HBM定价</strong>：原先预测2026-2028年每年下跌5-10%（考虑竞争压力），现在改为每年上涨15%（产品升级驱动），这一变化对2028年盈利的影响尤其显著</p></li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81526ec5b5668c7302a54a54614c1bd9\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"410\"/></p><p>自由现金流的改善更明显：SK海力士2026-2028年FCF预测分别约828亿、2487亿、2988亿韩元（单位：10亿韩元），FCF收益率从接近零逐步攀升至双位数。</p><p>这里该行还引用了苹果和日本航运公司的案例：苹果过去十年超额回报中，约70%来自回购和分红，而非纯粹的盈利增长；日本航运公司在疫情后运费大幅回落的情况下，因为大幅提升分红比率，股价反而持续跑赢大盘。逻辑是一样的——持续的自由现金流可以转化为股东回报，改变估值体系。</p><p>基于这一逻辑，<strong>摩根大通将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">三星电子</a>目标价上调至48万韩元（按2026至2027年预期EPS给予8倍P/E），SK海力士目标价从180万韩元大幅跳升至300万韩元，铠侠目标价则从38000日元直接翻倍至80000日元，成为全市场最高。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_791685805\">LTA不是免疫周期，2017年的教训还在</h2><p>LTA不是让存储行业彻底摆脱周期。过去也有失败案例。</p><p>2017年DRAM短缺时，行业签过远期采购协议。但需求放慢、库存上升后，DRAM价格在2-3个季度内下跌超过40%，客户推迟交付，合同承诺通过价格重设向现货和市场价格靠拢。那一轮协议没有真正锁住周期。</p><p>这次要看五件事。</p><p><strong>第一，AI变现是否继续兑现。</strong>如果AI资本开支进入消化期，客户锁供意愿会下降。</p><p><strong>第二，技术是否改变内存需求。</strong>模型架构、压缩、KV cache和tokenization等突破，可能降低每代AI服务器对内存的依赖。</p><p><strong>第三，供给是否突然放大。</strong>如果现有厂商大幅增加先进内存供给，或新玩家进入，供需平衡会重新改变。</p><p><strong>第四，还有合同层面的风险。</strong>若LTA条款对存储厂商不利，或预付款、担保、惩罚机制不够强，盈利稳定性就会被高估。</p><p><strong>第五，宏观层面，关税、制裁、高端AI芯片出口管制</strong>，以及客户资产负债表压力，也可能影响合同履行。</p><p>所以，LTA的核心不是“签约新闻”，而是现金流。未来市场要看的证据也很直接：存储公司资产负债表上是否出现实质现金流入，以及对应的递延收入义务。只有看到钱和义务同时出现，LTA才不只是叙事。</p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大小摩一起喊：长协（LTA）推动存储公司重估，市场尚未完全定价</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大小摩一起喊：长协（LTA）推动存储公司重估，市场尚未完全定价\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-19 11:14</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>存储芯片正在从周期性大宗商品，变成AI基础设施的战略性资源——而这一转变的核心机制，叫做长期供货协议（LTA）。</p><p>据消息，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>近日相继发布针对全球存储行业的深度研究，焦点都落在同一个变量上：存储长期供货协议，Long-Term Agreement，简称LTA。<strong>过去，存储行业的核心叙事是涨价、扩产、供过于求、价格下跌，再重新出清。现在，AI客户希望提前锁供应，存储厂商希望提前锁订单和价格，周期的波动幅度可能被压低。</strong></p><p>摩根士丹利科技硬件团队Shawn Kim在研究中写道：“内存已成为AI基础设施中的关键瓶颈。客户为确保供应而签订的LTA，<strong>正在把一个传统周期业务，转变为有保障、高利润、长期收入流。</strong>”这句话概括了该行的核心判断：<strong>市场如果仍按传统周期股给存储公司估值，可能低估了未来收入和现金流的稳定性。</strong></p><p>摩根大通Jay Kwon团队给出的表述更直接：<strong>“LTA为存储厂商铺平了通向新估值框架的道路。”</strong>他的逻辑是，买方不只是怕涨价，更怕买不到；卖方也不只是想涨价，更想在投入巨额资本开支前拿到订单可见度。LTA把双方的焦虑写进合同。</p><p>投资者真正关心的不是“签了几年”，而是合同有没有约束力、现金是否提前进账、价格下行有没有保护。如果这些条款足够硬，存储公司的盈利就不再完全跟着现货价格上下跳，<strong>市净率（P/B）估值框架也可能让位于市盈率（P/E）框架。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2645398625\">LTA不是新鲜事，但这次不一样</h2><p>存储行业并非第一次出现“长协”。2017年DRAM短缺周期中，厂商也签过多年框架合同，但需求一旦降温，价格跌超40%，客户照样压价或推迟出货，合同形同虚设。</p><p>这一次的区别在于条款结构：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>预付款规模</strong>：部分供应商已收取2027年需求50%的预付款，2028年达到100%</p></li><li><p><strong>价格机制</strong>：设有价格区间，含上限（collar/ceiling）和下限保护，而非浮动随行就市</p></li><li><p><strong>违约成本</strong>：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>CEO在财报电话会上直接说，“客户通过各类金融工具实实在在地抵押了数十亿美元，如果他们不按季度完成采购义务，这笔钱立刻归我们”</p></li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>执行副总裁金在俊在1Q26财报会上的表述同样直白：“与基于互信的现有供货合同不同，这些多年期合同具有更高层次的约束性承诺。”</p><p>SK海力士总裁郭诺正在今年3月股东大会上说，公司正在“综合评估各种结构性方案”——背后意思是，单纯的罚款机制已不够用，需要从合同架构层面锁死双方的退出路径。</p><p>这类协议之所以难以撕毁，根本原因是预付款的会计属性：一旦打款，在客户账上计为资本支出或预付资产，重新谈判的成本远高于违约罚款。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d238c01bafe3b66ce8ac67ec9b56e783\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"478\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2354947181\">供给缺口是谈判筹码的根源</h2><p>超大规模云服务商（CSP）愿意签这类合同，并不是好心，而是被逼的。</p><p>AI推理需求的增长速度，远超DRAM产能的物理扩张极限。摩根大通测算，<strong>2026-2030年，全球前三大DRAM厂商的晶圆产能累计短缺约44.4万片/月（以等效月产能计）。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ae8d73c0ca6faccd3d6aed6ae4a64ce4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"185\"/></p><p>从需求端看，AI半导体市场规模预计到2030年增长50-60%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>近期将半导体总可寻址市场（TAM）预测从1万亿美元上调至1.5万亿美元。而DRAM供给受EUV光刻机产能瓶颈制约，2027年起bit出货量增速可能被压制在每年30%以内。</p><p>两条线的剪刀差，就是存储厂商谈判桌上最硬的筹码。</p><p><strong>过去存储厂商扩产的逻辑是“备货式生产”（Make-to-Stock）——先建产能，再等需求。现在超大规模云厂商为了锁量，倒过来推动存储厂商转向“按单生产”（Make-to-Order）的模式，预付款本质上是在替存储厂商的资本开支做担保。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3147018901\">卖方要的不是盲目扩产，而是订单兜底</h2><p>存储厂商也有自己的问题：<strong>扩产越来越贵。</strong></p><p>每一bit新增产能的成本在上升，原因包括基础设施成本、晶圆设备价值、后道封装资本开支承诺等。厂商不愿意只凭需求预测扩产，因为一旦AI需求低于预期，或者客户库存重新积压，行业又会回到过去的价格下行周期。</p><p><strong>LTA的作用就是把“可能的需求”变成“更确定的订单”。有了预付款、数量承诺和价格保护，扩产更像是为了已确认需求，而不是为了赌下一轮景气。</strong></p><p>这也解释了为什么高LTA占比未必会刺激供应商激进扩产。在严重短缺环境下，供应商更可能优先维护高质量合同，而不是提前把产能打满。合同质量，比单纯扩产速度更重要。</p><p>买方也不会无条件接受。可能出现的保护措施包括：供应商未能交货时的罚则、银行或第三方担保，甚至讨论资本开支补贴。不过，产能补贴会影响供应商对产线运营的灵活性，因此在合同谈判中并非最受欢迎的安排。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/30d432972e3d5c0543ea055b66fd5809\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"316\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_327530951\">估值框架切换：从台积电身上找参照</h2><p><strong>长期以来，存储股都用市净率（P/B）定价——因为盈利波动太大，用市盈率没有意义。但一旦LTA锁定了未来3-5年的量和价，盈利的可预测性就完全不同了。</strong></p><p>参照系是台积电。2015年之前，台积电也被当作重资产周期股，用P/B估值。2014年台积电拿下<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>独供合同之后，需求能见度提升，机构投资者开始切换到P/E框架。此后台积电的市盈率在10-30倍区间运行，均值约17倍。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9bcaea957fcdab65fd896778e177c5b1\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"306\"/></p><p>目前存储股（SK海力士+<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>合计）的远期市盈率约为7.3倍，过去11年（剔除2022-2023年下行周期）均值约9倍，与台积电的差距始终维持在负50%至负80%区间。</p><p>分析师认为，<strong>存储估值要完成框架切换，需要满足五个条件：周期性显著弱化、定价权具有持久性、LTA和HBM占收入比例持续提升、产能扩张保持纪律同时产生可观自由现金流、持续的研发合作加深差异化护城河。</strong></p><p>这五个条件，没有一个是轻易能打勾的——这也是摩根大通说“投资者路径会很曲折”的原因。</p><h2 id=\"id_3172469577\">摩根士丹利的具体测算：市场定价到底低估多少？</h2><p>该行做了一个敏感性<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>，假设HBM已经100%纳入LTA，普通存储（commodity memory）LTA覆盖率从50%到80%不等，对应LTA部分给予6-12倍市盈率，非LTA部分给予5倍市盈率。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d3292f12fa9f820965380d6fca342d0a\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"428\"/></p><p>结论：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>最保守情形</strong>（50%覆盖率+6倍LTA市盈率）：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>和SK海力士隐含整体市盈率约5.5倍，已高于三星当前2027年预期市盈率5.3倍和SK海力士的5.0倍</p></li><li><p><strong>中性情形</strong>（70%覆盖率+10倍LTA市盈率）：两者隐含市盈率升至约8.5-8.6倍</p></li><li><p><strong>乐观情形</strong>（80%覆盖率+12倍LTA市盈率）：两者隐含市盈率升至约10.5-10.7倍</p></li></ul><p>换句话说，市场目前对LTA背书的盈利，定价方式和普通周期商品盈利一模一样——如果这些合同真的像公司说的那样不可撤销、有现金担保，这个定价就是错的。</p><h2 id=\"id_1092725493\">LTA对盈利预测的实际影响</h2><p><strong>以SK海力士为例，摩根士丹利将其2026-2028年EPS预测分别上调6%、3%和14%，目标价从170万韩元上调至260万韩元，较当前股价（188万韩元）有38%上行空间。</strong></p><p>调整背后有两个关键假设变化：</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>普通DRAM定价</strong>：原先预测2028年进入下行周期，现在改为1H28维持平稳，因为LTA提供了价格下限保护</p></li><li><p><strong>HBM定价</strong>：原先预测2026-2028年每年下跌5-10%（考虑竞争压力），现在改为每年上涨15%（产品升级驱动），这一变化对2028年盈利的影响尤其显著</p></li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81526ec5b5668c7302a54a54614c1bd9\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"410\"/></p><p>自由现金流的改善更明显：SK海力士2026-2028年FCF预测分别约828亿、2487亿、2988亿韩元（单位：10亿韩元），FCF收益率从接近零逐步攀升至双位数。</p><p>这里该行还引用了苹果和日本航运公司的案例：苹果过去十年超额回报中，约70%来自回购和分红，而非纯粹的盈利增长；日本航运公司在疫情后运费大幅回落的情况下，因为大幅提升分红比率，股价反而持续跑赢大盘。逻辑是一样的——持续的自由现金流可以转化为股东回报，改变估值体系。</p><p>基于这一逻辑，<strong>摩根大通将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">三星电子</a>目标价上调至48万韩元（按2026至2027年预期EPS给予8倍P/E），SK海力士目标价从180万韩元大幅跳升至300万韩元，铠侠目标价则从38000日元直接翻倍至80000日元，成为全市场最高。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_791685805\">LTA不是免疫周期，2017年的教训还在</h2><p>LTA不是让存储行业彻底摆脱周期。过去也有失败案例。</p><p>2017年DRAM短缺时，行业签过远期采购协议。但需求放慢、库存上升后，DRAM价格在2-3个季度内下跌超过40%，客户推迟交付，合同承诺通过价格重设向现货和市场价格靠拢。那一轮协议没有真正锁住周期。</p><p>这次要看五件事。</p><p><strong>第一，AI变现是否继续兑现。</strong>如果AI资本开支进入消化期，客户锁供意愿会下降。</p><p><strong>第二，技术是否改变内存需求。</strong>模型架构、压缩、KV cache和tokenization等突破，可能降低每代AI服务器对内存的依赖。</p><p><strong>第三，供给是否突然放大。</strong>如果现有厂商大幅增加先进内存供给，或新玩家进入，供需平衡会重新改变。</p><p><strong>第四，还有合同层面的风险。</strong>若LTA条款对存储厂商不利，或预付款、担保、惩罚机制不够强，盈利稳定性就会被高估。</p><p><strong>第五，宏观层面，关税、制裁、高端AI芯片出口管制</strong>，以及客户资产负债表压力，也可能影响合同履行。</p><p>所以，LTA的核心不是“签约新闻”，而是现金流。未来市场要看的证据也很直接：存储公司资产负债表上是否出现实质现金流入，以及对应的递延收入义务。只有看到钱和义务同时出现，LTA才不只是叙事。</p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8473ce76ed97bc3a63417137fc1828df","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2357627491.SGD":"TRP GLOBAL VALUE EQUITY \"AH\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0256863902.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU2242649171.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS 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Kwon团队给出的表述更直接：“LTA为存储厂商铺平了通向新估值框架的道路。”他的逻辑是，买方不只是怕涨价，更怕买不到；卖方也不只是想涨价，更想在投入巨额资本开支前拿到订单可见度。LTA把双方的焦虑写进合同。投资者真正关心的不是“签了几年”，而是合同有没有约束力、现金是否提前进账、价格下行有没有保护。如果这些条款足够硬，存储公司的盈利就不再完全跟着现货价格上下跳，市净率（P/B）估值框架也可能让位于市盈率（P/E）框架。LTA不是新鲜事，但这次不一样存储行业并非第一次出现“长协”。2017年DRAM短缺周期中，厂商也签过多年框架合同，但需求一旦降温，价格跌超40%，客户照样压价或推迟出货，合同形同虚设。这一次的区别在于条款结构：预付款规模：部分供应商已收取2027年需求50%的预付款，2028年达到100%价格机制：设有价格区间，含上限（collar/ceiling）和下限保护，而非浮动随行就市违约成本：闪迪CEO在财报电话会上直接说，“客户通过各类金融工具实实在在地抵押了数十亿美元，如果他们不按季度完成采购义务，这笔钱立刻归我们”三星电子执行副总裁金在俊在1Q26财报会上的表述同样直白：“与基于互信的现有供货合同不同，这些多年期合同具有更高层次的约束性承诺。”SK海力士总裁郭诺正在今年3月股东大会上说，公司正在“综合评估各种结构性方案”——背后意思是，单纯的罚款机制已不够用，需要从合同架构层面锁死双方的退出路径。这类协议之所以难以撕毁，根本原因是预付款的会计属性：一旦打款，在客户账上计为资本支出或预付资产，重新谈判的成本远高于违约罚款。供给缺口是谈判筹码的根源超大规模云服务商（CSP）愿意签这类合同，并不是好心，而是被逼的。AI推理需求的增长速度，远超DRAM产能的物理扩张极限。摩根大通测算，2026-2030年，全球前三大DRAM厂商的晶圆产能累计短缺约44.4万片/月（以等效月产能计）。从需求端看，AI半导体市场规模预计到2030年增长50-60%，台积电近期将半导体总可寻址市场（TAM）预测从1万亿美元上调至1.5万亿美元。而DRAM供给受EUV光刻机产能瓶颈制约，2027年起bit出货量增速可能被压制在每年30%以内。两条线的剪刀差，就是存储厂商谈判桌上最硬的筹码。过去存储厂商扩产的逻辑是“备货式生产”（Make-to-Stock）——先建产能，再等需求。现在超大规模云厂商为了锁量，倒过来推动存储厂商转向“按单生产”（Make-to-Order）的模式，预付款本质上是在替存储厂商的资本开支做担保。卖方要的不是盲目扩产，而是订单兜底存储厂商也有自己的问题：扩产越来越贵。每一bit新增产能的成本在上升，原因包括基础设施成本、晶圆设备价值、后道封装资本开支承诺等。厂商不愿意只凭需求预测扩产，因为一旦AI需求低于预期，或者客户库存重新积压，行业又会回到过去的价格下行周期。LTA的作用就是把“可能的需求”变成“更确定的订单”。有了预付款、数量承诺和价格保护，扩产更像是为了已确认需求，而不是为了赌下一轮景气。这也解释了为什么高LTA占比未必会刺激供应商激进扩产。在严重短缺环境下，供应商更可能优先维护高质量合同，而不是提前把产能打满。合同质量，比单纯扩产速度更重要。买方也不会无条件接受。可能出现的保护措施包括：供应商未能交货时的罚则、银行或第三方担保，甚至讨论资本开支补贴。不过，产能补贴会影响供应商对产线运营的灵活性，因此在合同谈判中并非最受欢迎的安排。估值框架切换：从台积电身上找参照长期以来，存储股都用市净率（P/B）定价——因为盈利波动太大，用市盈率没有意义。但一旦LTA锁定了未来3-5年的量和价，盈利的可预测性就完全不同了。参照系是台积电。2015年之前，台积电也被当作重资产周期股，用P/B估值。2014年台积电拿下苹果独供合同之后，需求能见度提升，机构投资者开始切换到P/E框架。此后台积电的市盈率在10-30倍区间运行，均值约17倍。目前存储股（SK海力士+美光合计）的远期市盈率约为7.3倍，过去11年（剔除2022-2023年下行周期）均值约9倍，与台积电的差距始终维持在负50%至负80%区间。分析师认为，存储估值要完成框架切换，需要满足五个条件：周期性显著弱化、定价权具有持久性、LTA和HBM占收入比例持续提升、产能扩张保持纪律同时产生可观自由现金流、持续的研发合作加深差异化护城河。这五个条件，没有一个是轻易能打勾的——这也是摩根大通说“投资者路径会很曲折”的原因。摩根士丹利的具体测算：市场定价到底低估多少？该行做了一个敏感性矩阵，假设HBM已经100%纳入LTA，普通存储（commodity 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18:22","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"中芯国际：Q1销售收入为25.05亿美元，同比增长11.5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116617330","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"中芯国际公告，2026年第一季的销售收入为25.05亿美元， 去年同期为22.47亿美元，同比增长11.5%；公司拥有人应占利润1.97亿美元，去年同期为1.88亿美元，同比增长5%.二季度，中芯国际给出的收入指引为环比增长14%到16%，毛利率指引为20%-22%，与上一季指引相比提升2个百分点。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>中芯国际公告，2026年第一季的销售收入为25.05亿美元， 去年同期为22.47亿美元，同比增长11.5%；公司拥有人应占利润1.97亿美元，去年同期为1.88亿美元，同比增长5%.</p><p>二季度，中芯国际给出的收入指引为环比增长14%到16%，毛利率指引为20%-22%，与上一季指引相比提升2个百分点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8fe6e401f27523196cd1dd1407c850a\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"633\"/></p><p><br/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中芯国际：Q1销售收入为25.05亿美元，同比增长11.5%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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class=\"h-time\">2026-05-14 18:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>中芯国际公告，2026年第一季的销售收入为25.05亿美元， 去年同期为22.47亿美元，同比增长11.5%；公司拥有人应占利润1.97亿美元，去年同期为1.88亿美元，同比增长5%.</p><p>二季度，中芯国际给出的收入指引为环比增长14%到16%，毛利率指引为20%-22%，与上一季指引相比提升2个百分点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8fe6e401f27523196cd1dd1407c850a\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"633\"/></p><p><br/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdb458f2c3eed8796a1e2ecf37309073","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","00981":"中芯国际"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116617330","content_text":"中芯国际公告，2026年第一季的销售收入为25.05亿美元， 去年同期为22.47亿美元，同比增长11.5%；公司拥有人应占利润1.97亿美元，去年同期为1.88亿美元，同比增长5%.二季度，中芯国际给出的收入指引为环比增长14%到16%，毛利率指引为20%-22%，与上一季指引相比提升2个百分点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688981":2,"00981":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":856,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":564100295727016,"gmtCreate":1778754190182,"gmtModify":1778754192050,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3540680319507322","authorIdStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">$思科(CSCO)$&nbsp;</a> 注定你是防御性标的，几十年的历史证明不会大涨，今晚开盘估计回落","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">$思科(CSCO)$&nbsp;</a> 注定你是防御性标的，几十年的历史证明不会大涨，今晚开盘估计回落","text":"$思科(CSCO)$ 注定你是防御性标的，几十年的历史证明不会大涨，今晚开盘估计回落","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/564100295727016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3578626854884444","authorId":"3578626854884444","name":"HeavenM","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578626854884444","authorIdStr":"3578626854884444"},"content":"思科狂飙市值全球第一的时候， 你怕是不知道吧","text":"思科狂飙市值全球第一的时候， 你怕是不知道吧","html":"思科狂飙市值全球第一的时候， 你怕是不知道吧"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":563477556872344,"gmtCreate":1778602089548,"gmtModify":1778602091721,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3540680319507322","authorIdStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$&nbsp;</a> 今天只是小雨，大雨，暴雨，雷电，还在后面","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$&nbsp;</a> 今天只是小雨，大雨，暴雨，雷电，还在后面","text":"$美光科技(MU)$ 今天只是小雨，大雨，暴雨，雷电，还在后面","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/563477556872344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":563466054030736,"gmtCreate":1778599290627,"gmtModify":1778599292695,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3540680319507322","authorIdStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">$闪迪(SNDK)$</a> 闪迪改名闪崩","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">$闪迪(SNDK)$</a> 闪迪改名闪崩","text":"$闪迪(SNDK)$ 闪迪改名闪崩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/563466054030736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":563440120575184,"gmtCreate":1778578203708,"gmtModify":1778578206682,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3540680319507322","authorIdStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"美光将成为世界上第一个也是唯一一个市值突破100万亿美元的公司。","listText":"美光将成为世界上第一个也是唯一一个市值突破100万亿美元的公司。","text":"美光将成为世界上第一个也是唯一一个市值突破100万亿美元的公司。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/563440120575184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4110213039567040","authorId":"4110213039567040","name":"HHA_8144","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d0c832a7c5a4de595a5933d5b6f73e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4110213039567040","authorIdStr":"4110213039567040"},"content":"马上就要开始跌了，怎么他还能直线涨天山啊，当一个行业暴利，就会涌进来大量的资金来发展，竞争就会加大，不看新闻吗，未来整片不切割了，不需要美光海力士了","text":"马上就要开始跌了，怎么他还能直线涨天山啊，当一个行业暴利，就会涌进来大量的资金来发展，竞争就会加大，不看新闻吗，未来整片不切割了，不需要美光海力士了","html":"马上就要开始跌了，怎么他还能直线涨天山啊，当一个行业暴利，就会涌进来大量的资金来发展，竞争就会加大，不看新闻吗，未来整片不切割了，不需要美光海力士了"},{"author":{"id":"3566290818801808","authorId":"3566290818801808","name":"亿千","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8074aa8994a90800980e41658344389","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566290818801808","authorIdStr":"3566290818801808"},"content":"…. 理由是啥？ 哈哈哈哈哈哈","text":"…. 理由是啥？ 哈哈哈哈哈哈","html":"…. 理由是啥？ 哈哈哈哈哈哈"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":563435761026256,"gmtCreate":1778577139365,"gmtModify":1778577141942,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3540680319507322","authorIdStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"未经审核的意思是这个公告可以是假的","listText":"未经审核的意思是这个公告可以是假的","text":"未经审核的意思是这个公告可以是假的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/563435761026256","repostId":"1198258845","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198258845","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1778576593,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198258845?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-12 17:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"泡泡玛特：2026年第一季度整体收益同比增长75%-80%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198258845","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"其中中国收益同比增长100%-105%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a> ：2026年第一季度整体收益（未经审核），较2025年第一季度同比增长75%-80%，其中中国收益同比增长100%-105%，亚太同比增长25%-30%，美洲同比增长55%-60%，以及欧洲及其他地区同比增长60%-65%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab7a1ad4789849a1cfc155cb5e49be4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1134\" tg-height=\"693\"/></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd582e484e1a2ae228f51f28a3f4273d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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