爱吃紫色的鱼的个人主页 - 老虎社区

爱吃紫色的鱼

爱吃紫色的鱼

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IP属地：河北

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爱吃紫色的鱼

2022-07-05

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@新东方在线:新东方在线宋鹏昊：让在线学习拓展学习边界

爱吃紫色的鱼

2022-05-09

$Biora Therapeutics, Inc.(BIOR)$这货怎么了？还个代码为啥跌下来这么惨？

爱吃紫色的鱼

2022-01-06

$京东物流(02618)$按说可以长期持有吧，至于这样跌？

爱吃紫色的鱼

2022-01-05

$长城汽车(02333)$为啥跌这么狠啊？

爱吃紫色的鱼

2021-12-29

$心通医疗-B(02160)$退市吧

爱吃紫色的鱼

2021-12-27

$Pasithea Therapeutics Corp.(KTTA)$一日游

爱吃紫色的鱼

2021-12-22

所以中签回本路漫漫

心脏瓣膜赛道观察：港股三剑客为何全部破发？

爱吃紫色的鱼

2021-12-21

$Progenity, Inc.(PROG)$啥也不是[喷血]

爱吃紫色的鱼

2021-12-21

$心通医疗-B(02160)$板块涨你不涨，板块跌你领先

爱吃紫色的鱼

2021-12-17

$心通医疗-B(02160)$是不是💊？

爱吃紫色的鱼

2021-12-16

$贝壳(BEKE)$厉害👍不降反涨

爱吃紫色的鱼

2021-12-16

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$果然还是开盘就跳水

爱吃紫色的鱼

2021-12-14

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$每天都是新低

爱吃紫色的鱼

2021-12-07

$心通医疗-B(02160)$这是啥泼股啊？

爱吃紫色的鱼

2021-12-02

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$这是啥？当红辣子鸡？

爱吃紫色的鱼

2021-11-12

$Progenity, Inc.(PROG)$没热度了吗？换手率还可以啊？

爱吃紫色的鱼

2021-11-04

他们成本都很低，我之前也低过卖飞了又上的车

抱歉，原内容已删除

爱吃紫色的鱼

2021-11-03

$Progenity, Inc.(PROG)$不知道这次是不是好消息

抱歉，原内容已删除

爱吃紫色的鱼

2021-11-02

$Progenity, Inc.(PROG)$这个5万的单子一直在压着下调，又不急用成交是为啥呢？

爱吃紫色的鱼

2021-11-02

$老虎证券(TIGR)$这盘前跌的有点吓人啊

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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自2014年首次举办以来，新浪国际学校择校巡展已成功举办五届，共吸引超过10万+择校家长观展，作为国际教育行业年度盛事，备受择校家庭关注。据主办方介绍，“新浪2019国际学校择校巡展”更触达六座名城（北京、上海、广州、杭州、成都、深圳），汇集两百余所知名国际学校，线上线下联动。除了覆盖包括幼儿园、小学、中学和大学留学全学龄段学校及专家之外，还承接了这些学龄段的学生和家长，旨在打通学校、老师、学生及家长的沟通渠道，为广大学生和家长提供详尽准确的择校信息与服务。 新东方在线参展火爆引围观 全新的学习方式 线上教育助力留学考试 有数据显示，截至目前，全北京一共有103所国际学校，从2000年至今，新增国际学校超80所，这一数字仍然在不断飙升。中国家长和学生对留学的需求逐年攀升，对优质K-12国际教育的渴望也越来越强烈。国际学校作为体制内教学和国外留学之间的“跳板”，成为不少家庭的宠儿。然而，随着优质国际学校与公办学校国际班的不断涌现，家庭教育选择的不断扩大，国际学校到底如何选择？怎样才能通过国际学校、国际班乃至海外高校的入学测试？就","text":"5月11日，新浪教育频道主办的“新浪2019国际学校择校巡展”北京站隆重举行，作为中国最具人气国际教育展会，本次展会汇集了全国百所优质国际学校和教育资源及国际学校领域权威专家大咖。互联网教育领导品牌新东方在线应邀参加展会，旗下出国考试业务携出国考试线上备考解决方案亮相本次“择校展”。在展会专家演讲环节，新东方在线出国考试事业部总经理宋鹏昊发表了题为《全新的学习方式--线上教育如何助力留学考试》的演讲，详细介绍了技术赋能下的留学考试新趋势及新东方在线的探索与服务。 $新东方在线(01797)$ 新东方在线出国考试事业部总经理宋鹏昊发表演讲 自2014年首次举办以来，新浪国际学校择校巡展已成功举办五届，共吸引超过10万+择校家长观展，作为国际教育行业年度盛事，备受择校家庭关注。据主办方介绍，“新浪2019国际学校择校巡展”更触达六座名城（北京、上海、广州、杭州、成都、深圳），汇集两百余所知名国际学校，线上线下联动。除了覆盖包括幼儿园、小学、中学和大学留学全学龄段学校及专家之外，还承接了这些学龄段的学生和家长，旨在打通学校、老师、学生及家长的沟通渠道，为广大学生和家长提供详尽准确的择校信息与服务。 新东方在线参展火爆引围观 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABCD\">新生</a>行业，但是真正的开花结果可能还要假以时日，心急的资本未必可以获得快速乃至即时的暴利。</span></p><p>2019年12月10日，启明医疗（<span>02500.HK</span>）港股上市，发行价33元港币，此后最高价到过97元港币，市值峰值达到427亿港币。</p><p>2020年5月15日，沛嘉医疗（<span>0</span><span>9996.HK</span>）港股上市，发行价15.36元港币，此后最高价到过39.1元港币，市值峰值达到262亿港币。</p><p>2021年2月4日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00853\">微创医疗</a>（<span>00853.HK</span>）子公司心通医疗（<span>02160.HK</span>）港股上市，发行价12.2元港币，此后最高价到过22.2元港币，市值峰值达到533亿港币。</p><p>至此，心脏瓣膜赛道三剑客齐聚港股，一时欣欣向荣，风头无两。</p><p>好景不长，自2021年6月以来，整个瓣膜行业公司的股价塌方式下跌，截至这个周五，三大心脏瓣膜公司全部跌破发行价。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b64b678989045f4b77b18d32006b800\"/></p><p><span>数据截至2021年12月10日 单位：港币</span></p><p>其中，在市场情绪高点发行的心通医疗，现价相对于发行价已经跌去了6成，可谓惨绝人寰。</p><p>即使温和破发的启明医疗和沛嘉医疗，对于在二级市场买入并持有这两家公司的投资者来说，也是买了一个寂寞。</p><p>曾经一度是医疗器械行业“当红辣子鸡”的心脏瓣膜赛道，到底怎么了？</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b300cfed2a4b1084459bb81f45d94f\"/></p><p><strong>TAVR销售不及预期</strong></p><p>作为各家瓣膜公司当前主力产品的TAVR，在上市一段时间之后，销售完全不达预期。</p><p>近期，瑞信发布研究报告称，对经导管主动脉瓣置换术(TAVR)公司进行了调研后，预计今年中国整体行业经导管主动脉瓣置换术的植入手术量大约在7000台，而今年年初时，预计全年可达到约9000台手术量。</p><p>启明医疗上半年1900台TAVR手术终端植入量， 全年指引4000-4500台。</p><p>心通医疗上半年出货量1056台，仅完成年初指引70%，大幅低于市场预期。全年指引3000台左右。</p><p>沛嘉医疗由于4月产品获批，上半年销售数量有限，截至8月底出货279套，植入83套，全年目标出货量450套，植入量315套。</p><p>这其中固然有疫情的影响，但是必须看到，今年以来三甲医院的的诊疗秩序已经基本恢复，偶发的零散疫情不足以作为全部的借口。</p><p>归根结底，还是昂贵的手术费用，无法在短时间内大幅提升渗透率。</p><p>TAVR的基本逻辑是对SAVR的逐步替代。</p><p>对于传统的SAVR手术来说，医保现已覆盖大部分费用，生物瓣膜的费用约在3-6万元（其中国产产品价格相对更低），考虑手术等各项费用估计总费用约在10-15万元，其中可报销的比例约在50%以上。</p><p>费用相对高昂的TAVR瓣膜，加上手术相关的费用，一台手术下来，患者的整体负担要达到20万~30万，目前对患者造成的经济压力还是较大。在价格上和SAVR相比劣势太大，这也是“TAVR迅速替代SAVR”这一预期无法轻易实现的原因。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91f7d36a26f24d07bbce97d975396ab0\"/></p><p><strong>赛道内卷激烈，行业即将拥挤</strong></p><p>很多研报在测算渗透率的时候，动辄拿14亿人口和发病率来计算。</p><p>事实上，在价格不显著降低的基础上，TAVR的真实市场，其实只是有30万以上支付能力的中产人群；这个人群规模有多大，很难准确考证，但是应该距离此前的测算模型有不小的差距。</p><p>所以，从需求端支付能力来说，未来自费的手术量，在到达某个并不那么让人兴奋的峰值之后，可能很难再往上爬坡。</p><p>然而分食蛋糕的玩家却在一再增加，赛道已经逐渐拥挤。</p><p>算上已经上市的启明医疗、微创医疗、杰成医疗、沛嘉医疗，以及进口的爱德华，国内起码已经有5张TAVR注册证。</p><p>然而后面的追赶者，还有一串长长的名单：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300003\">乐普医疗</a>、金仕医疗、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002382\">蓝帆医疗</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603987\">康德莱</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688198\">佰仁医疗</a>等。</p><p>和创新药领域的PD-1类似，中国可能拥有全世界最多的TAVR临床试验；已上市的TAVR销售不达预期，还有一个原因就是这些正在临床的产品分流了一部分病人。</p><p>这也意味着，3-5年之内，国内大概率拥有超过10张TAVR注册证，过多的供给追逐有限的需求，只能不断内卷，竞争格局难言乐观。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11ef12b8cf7a413c87caaf28dbeed662\"/></p><p><strong>二尖瓣/三尖瓣治疗市场是救世主吗？</strong></p><p>在TAVR赛道逐渐褪去光环之后，很多人把目光投向了二尖瓣/三尖瓣治疗市场。</p><p>确实，从理论测算角度来说，无论二尖瓣还是三尖瓣治疗市场，包括替换和修复，体量都可能是比TAVR更大。</p><p>但是，预期的落地，也完全不是一件容易的事情。</p><p>从支付端来讲，昂贵的手术费用仍然是一个难以逾越的障碍。</p><p>从手术难度来讲，二尖瓣/三尖瓣入路较主动脉瓣更为复杂深入，技术难度高于主动脉瓣手术，对于医院基础设施和医生团队的要求更高，全国可以熟练开展相关手术的医生更少。</p><p>需求和供应都有一定障碍，注定快速放量是一件无法完成的任务。</p><p>至于竞争格局，简直就是TAVR的一个翻版；除了几家已上市公司都在开发或者筹备开发二尖瓣/三尖瓣产品，在一级市场拿到融资正在进入或者准备进入这个领域的公司，也已经可以列一个很长的名单。</p><p>二尖瓣/三尖瓣领域，是已经入局瓣膜赛道的企业必争之地，做了不一定有机会，不做几乎一定没有未来。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df0c3ff3be10461da85f417de629727b\"/></p><p><strong>慢医疗与快资本</strong></p><p>客观来说，国内瓣膜产业的几个选手已经足够优秀，在短短几年间做到了百花齐放，各种技术路径几乎全部覆盖，微创新层出不穷。中国人民有望在用上了全世界最便宜的PD-1之后，用上全世界最便宜的各类心脏瓣膜产品。</p><p>这既是行业努力的结果，也归功于背后资本的催熟。</p><p>但资本往往是一把双刃剑。</p><p>一边是天生喜爱快速追逐利润的强势资本，一边是投资回报较慢的医疗行业，天然的差异让二者结合后的前景显得充满无限未知。</p><p>心脏瓣膜行业依然是一个前景远大的新生行业，但是真正的开花结果可能还要假以时日，心急的资本未必可以获得快速乃至即时的暴利。</p><p>但是抛去资本的猴急和套路，聪明的投资者或许可以发现妙手偶得的机会。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba04e6e18a1548caae876e19e10c615c\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02f3a86863fe4260b702e1dcdf79dc0d\"/></p><p><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54064a30172c411597a60581e206c060\"/></span></p><p><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53a39aefe6834d849a24e3deac77a135\"/></span></p><p><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7e0c42dddb34ad797d8ba85cc8082da\"/></span></p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"weixin_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>心脏瓣膜赛道观察：港股三剑客为何全部破发？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n心脏瓣膜赛道观察：港股三剑客为何全部破发？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1026500124\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df70e92a2d64be896797ea06b5e676a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">阿尔法工场研究院 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-22 07:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><div>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cd259db975c47d19336b02f6af4bec3\"/></p><p><strong><span><span><strong><span><span>作者 | 塔瓦人</span></span></strong></span></span></strong></p><p><strong><span><span>来源 | 医药投资部落</span></span></strong></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aadd1418ea440cead67e3ea27f9b7dd\"/><span> 心脏瓣膜行业依然是一个前景远大的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABCD\">新生</a>行业，但是真正的开花结果可能还要假以时日，心急的资本未必可以获得快速乃至即时的暴利。</span></p><p>2019年12月10日，启明医疗（<span>02500.HK</span>）港股上市，发行价33元港币，此后最高价到过97元港币，市值峰值达到427亿港币。</p><p>2020年5月15日，沛嘉医疗（<span>0</span><span>9996.HK</span>）港股上市，发行价15.36元港币，此后最高价到过39.1元港币，市值峰值达到262亿港币。</p><p>2021年2月4日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00853\">微创医疗</a>（<span>00853.HK</span>）子公司心通医疗（<span>02160.HK</span>）港股上市，发行价12.2元港币，此后最高价到过22.2元港币，市值峰值达到533亿港币。</p><p>至此，心脏瓣膜赛道三剑客齐聚港股，一时欣欣向荣，风头无两。</p><p>好景不长，自2021年6月以来，整个瓣膜行业公司的股价塌方式下跌，截至这个周五，三大心脏瓣膜公司全部跌破发行价。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b64b678989045f4b77b18d32006b800\"/></p><p><span>数据截至2021年12月10日 单位：港币</span></p><p>其中，在市场情绪高点发行的心通医疗，现价相对于发行价已经跌去了6成，可谓惨绝人寰。</p><p>即使温和破发的启明医疗和沛嘉医疗，对于在二级市场买入并持有这两家公司的投资者来说，也是买了一个寂寞。</p><p>曾经一度是医疗器械行业“当红辣子鸡”的心脏瓣膜赛道，到底怎么了？</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b300cfed2a4b1084459bb81f45d94f\"/></p><p><strong>TAVR销售不及预期</strong></p><p>作为各家瓣膜公司当前主力产品的TAVR，在上市一段时间之后，销售完全不达预期。</p><p>近期，瑞信发布研究报告称，对经导管主动脉瓣置换术(TAVR)公司进行了调研后，预计今年中国整体行业经导管主动脉瓣置换术的植入手术量大约在7000台，而今年年初时，预计全年可达到约9000台手术量。</p><p>启明医疗上半年1900台TAVR手术终端植入量， 全年指引4000-4500台。</p><p>心通医疗上半年出货量1056台，仅完成年初指引70%，大幅低于市场预期。全年指引3000台左右。</p><p>沛嘉医疗由于4月产品获批，上半年销售数量有限，截至8月底出货279套，植入83套，全年目标出货量450套，植入量315套。</p><p>这其中固然有疫情的影响，但是必须看到，今年以来三甲医院的的诊疗秩序已经基本恢复，偶发的零散疫情不足以作为全部的借口。</p><p>归根结底，还是昂贵的手术费用，无法在短时间内大幅提升渗透率。</p><p>TAVR的基本逻辑是对SAVR的逐步替代。</p><p>对于传统的SAVR手术来说，医保现已覆盖大部分费用，生物瓣膜的费用约在3-6万元（其中国产产品价格相对更低），考虑手术等各项费用估计总费用约在10-15万元，其中可报销的比例约在50%以上。</p><p>费用相对高昂的TAVR瓣膜，加上手术相关的费用，一台手术下来，患者的整体负担要达到20万~30万，目前对患者造成的经济压力还是较大。在价格上和SAVR相比劣势太大，这也是“TAVR迅速替代SAVR”这一预期无法轻易实现的原因。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91f7d36a26f24d07bbce97d975396ab0\"/></p><p><strong>赛道内卷激烈，行业即将拥挤</strong></p><p>很多研报在测算渗透率的时候，动辄拿14亿人口和发病率来计算。</p><p>事实上，在价格不显著降低的基础上，TAVR的真实市场，其实只是有30万以上支付能力的中产人群；这个人群规模有多大，很难准确考证，但是应该距离此前的测算模型有不小的差距。</p><p>所以，从需求端支付能力来说，未来自费的手术量，在到达某个并不那么让人兴奋的峰值之后，可能很难再往上爬坡。</p><p>然而分食蛋糕的玩家却在一再增加，赛道已经逐渐拥挤。</p><p>算上已经上市的启明医疗、微创医疗、杰成医疗、沛嘉医疗，以及进口的爱德华，国内起码已经有5张TAVR注册证。</p><p>然而后面的追赶者，还有一串长长的名单：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300003\">乐普医疗</a>、金仕医疗、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002382\">蓝帆医疗</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603987\">康德莱</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688198\">佰仁医疗</a>等。</p><p>和创新药领域的PD-1类似，中国可能拥有全世界最多的TAVR临床试验；已上市的TAVR销售不达预期，还有一个原因就是这些正在临床的产品分流了一部分病人。</p><p>这也意味着，3-5年之内，国内大概率拥有超过10张TAVR注册证，过多的供给追逐有限的需求，只能不断内卷，竞争格局难言乐观。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11ef12b8cf7a413c87caaf28dbeed662\"/></p><p><strong>二尖瓣/三尖瓣治疗市场是救世主吗？</strong></p><p>在TAVR赛道逐渐褪去光环之后，很多人把目光投向了二尖瓣/三尖瓣治疗市场。</p><p>确实，从理论测算角度来说，无论二尖瓣还是三尖瓣治疗市场，包括替换和修复，体量都可能是比TAVR更大。</p><p>但是，预期的落地，也完全不是一件容易的事情。</p><p>从支付端来讲，昂贵的手术费用仍然是一个难以逾越的障碍。</p><p>从手术难度来讲，二尖瓣/三尖瓣入路较主动脉瓣更为复杂深入，技术难度高于主动脉瓣手术，对于医院基础设施和医生团队的要求更高，全国可以熟练开展相关手术的医生更少。</p><p>需求和供应都有一定障碍，注定快速放量是一件无法完成的任务。</p><p>至于竞争格局，简直就是TAVR的一个翻版；除了几家已上市公司都在开发或者筹备开发二尖瓣/三尖瓣产品，在一级市场拿到融资正在进入或者准备进入这个领域的公司，也已经可以列一个很长的名单。</p><p>二尖瓣/三尖瓣领域，是已经入局瓣膜赛道的企业必争之地，做了不一定有机会，不做几乎一定没有未来。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df0c3ff3be10461da85f417de629727b\"/></p><p><strong>慢医疗与快资本</strong></p><p>客观来说，国内瓣膜产业的几个选手已经足够优秀，在短短几年间做到了百花齐放，各种技术路径几乎全部覆盖，微创新层出不穷。中国人民有望在用上了全世界最便宜的PD-1之后，用上全世界最便宜的各类心脏瓣膜产品。</p><p>这既是行业努力的结果，也归功于背后资本的催熟。</p><p>但资本往往是一把双刃剑。</p><p>一边是天生喜爱快速追逐利润的强势资本，一边是投资回报较慢的医疗行业，天然的差异让二者结合后的前景显得充满无限未知。</p><p>心脏瓣膜行业依然是一个前景远大的新生行业，但是真正的开花结果可能还要假以时日，心急的资本未必可以获得快速乃至即时的暴利。</p><p>但是抛去资本的猴急和套路，聪明的投资者或许可以发现妙手偶得的机会。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba04e6e18a1548caae876e19e10c615c\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02f3a86863fe4260b702e1dcdf79dc0d\"/></p><p><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54064a30172c411597a60581e206c060\"/></span></p><p><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53a39aefe6834d849a24e3deac77a135\"/></span></p><p><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7e0c42dddb34ad797d8ba85cc8082da\"/></span></p>\n</div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df4ec61541b268a5353585001973d7cb","relate_stocks":{"02160":"心通医疗-B","BK1100":"医疗保健设备","BK1585":"昨日强势股","BK1589":"北水核心资产","09996":"沛嘉医疗-B","BK1574":"生物医药B类股","02500":"启明医疗-B","BK1583":"高瓴概念","00853":"微创医疗"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5MzAzNzE0MQ==&mid=2651517820&idx=4&sn=4ab149f86128a574146a908297c1ce87&chksm=bd637d468a14f450a0134494aff7db9855b1b955c69a8eb25f9b8a80e955dbc742c6b81a158a#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/ecd74548980bc5b366aa8f4b37ed0bd5","article_id":"2193613861","content_text":"作者 | 塔瓦人来源 | 医药投资部落 心脏瓣膜行业依然是一个前景远大的新生行业，但是真正的开花结果可能还要假以时日，心急的资本未必可以获得快速乃至即时的暴利。2019年12月10日，启明医疗（02500.HK）港股上市，发行价33元港币，此后最高价到过97元港币，市值峰值达到427亿港币。2020年5月15日，沛嘉医疗（09996.HK）港股上市，发行价15.36元港币，此后最高价到过39.1元港币，市值峰值达到262亿港币。2021年2月4日，微创医疗（00853.HK）子公司心通医疗（02160.HK）港股上市，发行价12.2元港币，此后最高价到过22.2元港币，市值峰值达到533亿港币。至此，心脏瓣膜赛道三剑客齐聚港股，一时欣欣向荣，风头无两。好景不长，自2021年6月以来，整个瓣膜行业公司的股价塌方式下跌，截至这个周五，三大心脏瓣膜公司全部跌破发行价。数据截至2021年12月10日 单位：港币其中，在市场情绪高点发行的心通医疗，现价相对于发行价已经跌去了6成，可谓惨绝人寰。即使温和破发的启明医疗和沛嘉医疗，对于在二级市场买入并持有这两家公司的投资者来说，也是买了一个寂寞。曾经一度是医疗器械行业“当红辣子鸡”的心脏瓣膜赛道，到底怎么了？TAVR销售不及预期作为各家瓣膜公司当前主力产品的TAVR，在上市一段时间之后，销售完全不达预期。近期，瑞信发布研究报告称，对经导管主动脉瓣置换术(TAVR)公司进行了调研后，预计今年中国整体行业经导管主动脉瓣置换术的植入手术量大约在7000台，而今年年初时，预计全年可达到约9000台手术量。启明医疗上半年1900台TAVR手术终端植入量， 全年指引4000-4500台。心通医疗上半年出货量1056台，仅完成年初指引70%，大幅低于市场预期。全年指引3000台左右。沛嘉医疗由于4月产品获批，上半年销售数量有限，截至8月底出货279套，植入83套，全年目标出货量450套，植入量315套。这其中固然有疫情的影响，但是必须看到，今年以来三甲医院的的诊疗秩序已经基本恢复，偶发的零散疫情不足以作为全部的借口。归根结底，还是昂贵的手术费用，无法在短时间内大幅提升渗透率。TAVR的基本逻辑是对SAVR的逐步替代。对于传统的SAVR手术来说，医保现已覆盖大部分费用，生物瓣膜的费用约在3-6万元（其中国产产品价格相对更低），考虑手术等各项费用估计总费用约在10-15万元，其中可报销的比例约在50%以上。费用相对高昂的TAVR瓣膜，加上手术相关的费用，一台手术下来，患者的整体负担要达到20万~30万，目前对患者造成的经济压力还是较大。在价格上和SAVR相比劣势太大，这也是“TAVR迅速替代SAVR”这一预期无法轻易实现的原因。赛道内卷激烈，行业即将拥挤很多研报在测算渗透率的时候，动辄拿14亿人口和发病率来计算。事实上，在价格不显著降低的基础上，TAVR的真实市场，其实只是有30万以上支付能力的中产人群；这个人群规模有多大，很难准确考证，但是应该距离此前的测算模型有不小的差距。所以，从需求端支付能力来说，未来自费的手术量，在到达某个并不那么让人兴奋的峰值之后，可能很难再往上爬坡。然而分食蛋糕的玩家却在一再增加，赛道已经逐渐拥挤。算上已经上市的启明医疗、微创医疗、杰成医疗、沛嘉医疗，以及进口的爱德华，国内起码已经有5张TAVR注册证。然而后面的追赶者，还有一串长长的名单：乐普医疗、金仕医疗、蓝帆医疗、康德莱、佰仁医疗等。和创新药领域的PD-1类似，中国可能拥有全世界最多的TAVR临床试验；已上市的TAVR销售不达预期，还有一个原因就是这些正在临床的产品分流了一部分病人。这也意味着，3-5年之内，国内大概率拥有超过10张TAVR注册证，过多的供给追逐有限的需求，只能不断内卷，竞争格局难言乐观。二尖瓣/三尖瓣治疗市场是救世主吗？在TAVR赛道逐渐褪去光环之后，很多人把目光投向了二尖瓣/三尖瓣治疗市场。确实，从理论测算角度来说，无论二尖瓣还是三尖瓣治疗市场，包括替换和修复，体量都可能是比TAVR更大。但是，预期的落地，也完全不是一件容易的事情。从支付端来讲，昂贵的手术费用仍然是一个难以逾越的障碍。从手术难度来讲，二尖瓣/三尖瓣入路较主动脉瓣更为复杂深入，技术难度高于主动脉瓣手术，对于医院基础设施和医生团队的要求更高，全国可以熟练开展相关手术的医生更少。需求和供应都有一定障碍，注定快速放量是一件无法完成的任务。至于竞争格局，简直就是TAVR的一个翻版；除了几家已上市公司都在开发或者筹备开发二尖瓣/三尖瓣产品，在一级市场拿到融资正在进入或者准备进入这个领域的公司，也已经可以列一个很长的名单。二尖瓣/三尖瓣领域，是已经入局瓣膜赛道的企业必争之地，做了不一定有机会，不做几乎一定没有未来。慢医疗与快资本客观来说，国内瓣膜产业的几个选手已经足够优秀，在短短几年间做到了百花齐放，各种技术路径几乎全部覆盖，微创新层出不穷。中国人民有望在用上了全世界最便宜的PD-1之后，用上全世界最便宜的各类心脏瓣膜产品。这既是行业努力的结果，也归功于背后资本的催熟。但资本往往是一把双刃剑。一边是天生喜爱快速追逐利润的强势资本，一边是投资回报较慢的医疗行业，天然的差异让二者结合后的前景显得充满无限未知。心脏瓣膜行业依然是一个前景远大的新生行业，但是真正的开花结果可能还要假以时日，心急的资本未必可以获得快速乃至即时的暴利。但是抛去资本的猴急和套路，聪明的投资者或许可以发现妙手偶得的机会。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691087354,"gmtCreate":1640098542658,"gmtModify":1640098542658,"author":{"id":"3538828543448531","authorId":"3538828543448531","name":"爱吃紫色的鱼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d094f9ca00c876a2b5a6e30475d9ae3","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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