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小米拉
2020-04-02
$蔚来(NIO)$
希望蔚来汽车和哔哩哔哩能够给中概股挣回来光
小米拉
2021-10-29
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
一点小见解分享给大家;都是主观看法,还请理性探讨 • #无需恐慌|我认为对于已经在美国,香港,新西兰,新加坡等地取得合法证券行业从业金融牌照的内地互联网券商来讲,他们的一切经营性活动都是正常的,并不能被定义为非法金融活动; • 其次,互联网券商代表了这个已经有百年历史的金融行业的新鲜创新血脉,他们的创新能够给投资者带来更好的投资体验,这就是其发展的价值和意义;相比较之下,传统的券商经纪人,诸如I.B等,所提供的服务体验完全无法与创新性互联网券商提供的服务相提并论;应当鼓励这种创新 #现如今我们中国的企业通过境内业务实现的价值很难通过合理的途径和渠道同境内投资者分享,港股通门槛太高且不包含二次上市企业,QDII投资基金过于分布并不一定对投资者起到很好的保护;既然我们自己的企业在境外上市,并进而创造发展的价值,那我们境内的投资者理应当拥有投资并分享企业发展红利的机会才对,港股通和QDII已经是不错的尝试,我相信中国还是会不断的开放金融市场
小米拉
2021-02-05
$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$
破产保护不应该对公司长远经营是好的影响吗?难道大家都看成破产了?
小米拉
2020-10-16
$蔚来(NIO)$
大家认为普普和瞌睡乔谁的赢面更大一些?
小米拉
2021-07-06
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
老虎是正规持牌金融机构,为什么会被境内监管影响?
小米拉
2021-03-10
$*ST海航(600221)$
为什么都宣布原有股东股权清零了还能维持在两百亿的市值呢?
小米拉
2021-06-19
$蔚来(NIO)$
最后一分钟4680万股成交!
小米拉
2021-04-24
瑞幸败了?是什么让作者这么自信的
抱歉,原内容已删除
小米拉
2020-02-29
$蔚来(NIO)$
资本市场是不是知道了什么大众不太可能知道的关于新型冠状病毒的情况呢?
小米拉
2021-06-29
$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$
哇哦大单!
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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#现如今我们中国的企业通过境内业务实现的价值很难通过合理的途径和渠道同境内投资者分享,港股通门槛太高且不包含二次上市企业,QDII投资基金过于分布并不一定对投资者起到很好的保护;既然我们自己的企业在境外上市,并进而创造发展的价值,那我们境内的投资者理应当拥有投资并分享企业发展红利的机会才对,港股通和QDII已经是不错的尝试,我相信中国还是会不断的开放金融市场","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$一点小见解分享给大家;都是主观看法,还请理性探讨 • #无需恐慌|我认为对于已经在美国,香港,新西兰,新加坡等地取得合法证券行业从业金融牌照的内地互联网券商来讲,他们的一切经营性活动都是正常的,并不能被定义为非法金融活动; • 其次,互联网券商代表了这个已经有百年历史的金融行业的新鲜创新血脉,他们的创新能够给投资者带来更好的投资体验,这就是其发展的价值和意义;相比较之下,传统的券商经纪人,诸如I.B等,所提供的服务体验完全无法与创新性互联网券商提供的服务相提并论;应当鼓励这种创新 #现如今我们中国的企业通过境内业务实现的价值很难通过合理的途径和渠道同境内投资者分享,港股通门槛太高且不包含二次上市企业,QDII投资基金过于分布并不一定对投资者起到很好的保护;既然我们自己的企业在境外上市,并进而创造发展的价值,那我们境内的投资者理应当拥有投资并分享企业发展红利的机会才对,港股通和QDII已经是不错的尝试,我相信中国还是会不断的开放金融市场","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854554156","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14991,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3475561889151459","authorId":"3475561889151459","name":"爱我丿你pua了吗丿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b41b5b0589d44d32c4cf314eba0c70b1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3475561889151459","idStr":"3475561889151459"},"content":"合规投资者的身份界定问题 并非散户 一般指的是机构投资者 反正大家都已经开户了 不用太操心 股价反正别有太高期待","text":"合规投资者的身份界定问题 并非散户 一般指的是机构投资者 反正大家都已经开户了 不用太操心 股价反正别有太高期待","html":"合规投资者的身份界定问题 并非散户 一般指的是机构投资者 反正大家都已经开户了 不用太操心 股价反正别有太高期待"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":817144884,"gmtCreate":1630924677248,"gmtModify":1630924677248,"author":{"id":"3530352788927678","authorId":"3530352788927678","name":"小米拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aedaf14c2ba1e06620cc2d73b77310f5","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3530352788927678","idStr":"3530352788927678"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"和腾讯比规范吗?","listText":"和腾讯比规范吗?","text":"和腾讯比规范吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817144884","repostId":"2165842643","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165842643","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630923185,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2165842643?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 18:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"字节跳动副总裁李亮再度炮轰腾讯","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165842643","media":"中关村新闻","summary":"在转载评论中,李亮言辞激烈的指出,腾讯利用其影响力介入公权力,影响甚大。","content":"<p>作者:轻舟</p>\n<p>字节跳动副总裁李亮转载人民日报评论《中纪委网站:资本介入是青少年沉迷网游的重要因素,相关企业不能唯利是图》一文评论道:“此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>与某机构出台报告称游戏无害,受某中学老师批评。就这一篇批评文章,腾讯就推动某地公安立案,刑询这位反对游戏毒害学生的中学老师,此案至今没有结论。”</p>\n<p>在转载评论中,李亮言辞激烈的指出,腾讯利用其影响力介入公权力,影响甚大。以下为字节跳动李亮炮轰腾讯原文:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ca01a854f01ee36d6f74cd8cac0264b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"1385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"zol_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n字节跳动副总裁李亮再度炮轰腾讯\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-06 18:13 北京时间 <a href=http://news.zol.com.cn/776/7760636.html><strong>中关村新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者:轻舟\n字节跳动副总裁李亮转载人民日报评论《中纪委网站:资本介入是青少年沉迷网游的重要因素,相关企业不能唯利是图》一文评论道:“此前腾讯与某机构出台报告称游戏无害,受某中学老师批评。就这一篇批评文章,腾讯就推动某地公安立案,刑询这位反对游戏毒害学生的中学老师,此案至今没有结论。”\n在转载评论中,李亮言辞激烈的指出,腾讯利用其影响力介入公权力,影响甚大。以下为字节跳动李亮炮轰腾讯原文:</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://news.zol.com.cn/776/7760636.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bea8b224335f941f6bd882d8b14f1da","relate_stocks":{"TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"http://news.zol.com.cn/776/7760636.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2165842643","content_text":"作者:轻舟\n字节跳动副总裁李亮转载人民日报评论《中纪委网站:资本介入是青少年沉迷网游的重要因素,相关企业不能唯利是图》一文评论道:“此前腾讯与某机构出台报告称游戏无害,受某中学老师批评。就这一篇批评文章,腾讯就推动某地公安立案,刑询这位反对游戏毒害学生的中学老师,此案至今没有结论。”\n在转载评论中,李亮言辞激烈的指出,腾讯利用其影响力介入公权力,影响甚大。以下为字节跳动李亮炮轰腾讯原文:","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TCEHY":0.9,"00700":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":157848909,"gmtCreate":1625578960501,"gmtModify":1625578960501,"author":{"id":"3530352788927678","authorId":"3530352788927678","name":"小米拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aedaf14c2ba1e06620cc2d73b77310f5","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3530352788927678","idStr":"3530352788927678"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATAT\">$亚朵酒店(ATAT)$</a>之前阅读财报发现非住宿业务收入也就是10%左右,看来这部分的故事还需要在细致地讲一下","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATAT\">$亚朵酒店(ATAT)$</a>之前阅读财报发现非住宿业务收入也就是10%左右,看来这部分的故事还需要在细致地讲一下","text":"$亚朵酒店(ATAT)$之前阅读财报发现非住宿业务收入也就是10%左右,看来这部分的故事还需要在细致地讲一下","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157848909","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":157183155,"gmtCreate":1625572705077,"gmtModify":1625574229686,"author":{"id":"3530352788927678","authorId":"3530352788927678","name":"小米拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aedaf14c2ba1e06620cc2d73b77310f5","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3530352788927678","idStr":"3530352788927678"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>老虎是正规持牌金融机构,为什么会被境内监管影响?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>老虎是正规持牌金融机构,为什么会被境内监管影响?","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$老虎是正规持牌金融机构,为什么会被境内监管影响?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157183155","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"109921353127640","authorId":"109921353127640","name":"降龙无悔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea6a6ad82f509f07f16471ea9a8e919","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"109921353127640","idStr":"109921353127640"},"content":"市场充满了机遇与陷阱比拼的就是谁更有洞察力","text":"市场充满了机遇与陷阱比拼的就是谁更有洞察力","html":"市场充满了机遇与陷阱比拼的就是谁更有洞察力"},{"author":{"id":"3530352788927678","authorId":"3530352788927678","name":"小米拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aedaf14c2ba1e06620cc2d73b77310f5","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3530352788927678","idStr":"3530352788927678"},"content":"能否理解为市场过度恐慌?","text":"能否理解为市场过度恐慌?","html":"能否理解为市场过度恐慌?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":159459962,"gmtCreate":1624977671656,"gmtModify":1624977671656,"author":{"id":"3530352788927678","authorId":"3530352788927678","name":"小米拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aedaf14c2ba1e06620cc2d73b77310f5","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3530352788927678","idStr":"3530352788927678"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKNCY\">$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$</a>哇哦大单!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKNCY\">$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$</a>哇哦大单!","text":"$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$哇哦大单!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c291963472dc6a744a705b9b2cf4e1f","width":"828","height":"1792"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159459962","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":162542432,"gmtCreate":1624069376026,"gmtModify":1624069376026,"author":{"id":"3530352788927678","authorId":"3530352788927678","name":"小米拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aedaf14c2ba1e06620cc2d73b77310f5","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3530352788927678","idStr":"3530352788927678"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>最后一分钟4680万股成交!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>最后一分钟4680万股成交!","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$最后一分钟4680万股成交!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5fd48f840a2c27c7f218a26bbb3c48b","width":"828","height":"1792"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162542432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574072740744315","authorId":"3574072740744315","name":"中签王中王","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574072740744315","idStr":"3574072740744315"},"content":"非常不理解,有大神解释一下么","text":"非常不理解,有大神解释一下么","html":"非常不理解,有大神解释一下么"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":181284721,"gmtCreate":1623396686163,"gmtModify":1623396686163,"author":{"id":"3530352788927678","authorId":"3530352788927678","name":"小米拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aedaf14c2ba1e06620cc2d73b77310f5","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3530352788927678","idStr":"3530352788927678"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181284721","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156453091?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11:</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07:</b>走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09:</b>油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是<b>从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示:</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11:粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07:走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09:油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示:美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3870,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181288696,"gmtCreate":1623396458615,"gmtModify":1623396458615,"author":{"id":"3530352788927678","authorId":"3530352788927678","name":"小米拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aedaf14c2ba1e06620cc2d73b77310f5","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3530352788927678","idStr":"3530352788927678"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"tiger is here!","listText":"tiger is here!","text":"tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181288696","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140839418","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623382205,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140839418?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"一张图读懂滴滴招股书:遍布15国,日均单量4100万","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140839418","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"6月11日消息,美国当地时间周四,$滴滴出行 $的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会提交了IPO招股书,计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市,股票代码为“DIDI”。根据滴滴披露的数据显示,目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务,年活跃用户数量4.93亿,年活跃司机数量1500万,日均单量4100万,年平台交易总额3410亿元,2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。","content":"<p>6月11日消息,美国当地时间周四,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴出行</a>的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交了IPO招股书,计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市,股票代码为“DIDI”。</p>\n<p>根据滴滴披露的数据显示,目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务,年活跃用户数量4.93亿,年活跃司机数量1500万,日均单量4100万,年平台交易总额3410亿元,2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母I,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查</a> 了解)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<p></p>","source":"txkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一张图读懂滴滴招股书:遍布15国,日均单量4100万</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; 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