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梅路艾姆

梅路艾姆

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05-22

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@人生舵手__小琳:HBM：AI时代真正被卡住的，不只是算力

05-22

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@101可转债:港股新股打新：华曦达 (00901.HK) 打新——全球最大AndroidTV终端供应商中签预测

05-22

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@重生之我在老虎学炒股:英伟达财报全面超预期，股价却盘后跳水：AI龙头也开始交“完美税”了？

05-22

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@AaronHy:长文再谈英特尔带你读懂英特尔

05-06

$X-Energy(XE)$ 小意思，问题不大

01-15

$VCI Global Ltd.(VCIG)$ 没救

2025-11-10

$VCI Global Ltd.(VCIG)$ 为什么没有熔断？

2025-10-30

$Eterna Therapeutics Inc.(ERNA)$ 冲啊，开拉

2025-10-29

$Cambium Networks(CMBM)$ 马上拉一个熔断，快来🤓

2025-10-29

$Cambium Networks(CMBM)$ 马上要拉了，快来

2025-10-29

冲啊

2025-10-28

$诺基亚(NOK)$ 扛住，打爆空头💪

2025-10-28

$诺基亚(NOK)$ 支持诺基亚！第一部手机就是诺基亚

2025-10-23

$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$ 多起来，冲击一百倍

2025-10-23

$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$ 冲啊💪

2025-10-22

$Noodles & Company(NDLS)$ 快来买吧，再不买就买不到了

2025-10-22

$Noodles & Company(NDLS)$ 冲啊，三天三倍

2025-10-22

$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$ 冲击百倍💪

2025-10-15

$Strata Skin Sciences, Inc.(SSKN)$ To the moon

2025-10-14

$帕沃英蒂格盛(POWI)$ go p

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AI，第一反应往往是 GPU、英伟达、算力、数据中心。但如果继续往产业链深处看，会发现一个越来越重要的事实： AI 不是只缺 GPU，而是缺“能把数据快速喂给 GPU 的记忆体”。 这就是 HBM，也就是高带宽内存。 如果说 GPU 是 AI 的大脑，那么 HBM 就像大脑旁边的短期记忆。AI 模型每生成一个 token，都需要不断从内存里读取参数、搬运数据，再交给 GPU 计算。模型越大、参数越多、推理越复杂，对数据搬运速度的要求就越高。 问题是，GPU 的计算速度已经非常快，但内存把数据送过去的速度跟不上。这种瓶颈就是所谓的 Memory Wall，记忆体墙。 在 AI 时代，真正限制芯片发挥性能的，很多时候不是“算不算得动”，而是“数据能不能足够快地搬过去”。 一、HBM 到底是什么？ HBM，全称 High Bandwidth Memory，中文叫高带宽内存。 它和普通电脑里的 DDR 内存条不一样。传统内存更像是放在主板另一端的“仓库”，数据要通过较长的线路传输到 CPU 或 GPU。而 HBM 的设计思路，是把多层 DRAM 芯片垂直堆叠起来，再放到 GPU 旁边，让数据传输距离大幅缩短。 简单理解就是： 普通内存是远处仓库，HBM 是贴身弹药库。 HBM 的优势主要有三点： 第一，带宽更高。 传统 DDR5 的数据总线宽度通常是 64 位，而 HBM3E 可以做到 1024 位，相当于把原来一条窄路，直接拓宽成十几车道的高速公路。 第二，距离更短。 HBM 不是远远插在主板上，而是通过先进封装和 GPU 放在同一个封装系统里。数据传输距离从几厘米缩短到几毫米。 第三，能效更好。 在数据中心里，电费和散热都是实打实的成本。HBM 在单位数据传输上的能耗比传统显存更低，因此不仅提升性能，也帮助降低整体系统能耗。 所以，HBM 不是单纯“更贵的","listText":"过去两年，市场一提到 AI，第一反应往往是 GPU、英伟达、算力、数据中心。但如果继续往产业链深处看，会发现一个越来越重要的事实： AI 不是只缺 GPU，而是缺“能把数据快速喂给 GPU 的记忆体”。 这就是 HBM，也就是高带宽内存。 如果说 GPU 是 AI 的大脑，那么 HBM 就像大脑旁边的短期记忆。AI 模型每生成一个 token，都需要不断从内存里读取参数、搬运数据，再交给 GPU 计算。模型越大、参数越多、推理越复杂，对数据搬运速度的要求就越高。 问题是，GPU 的计算速度已经非常快，但内存把数据送过去的速度跟不上。这种瓶颈就是所谓的 Memory Wall，记忆体墙。 在 AI 时代，真正限制芯片发挥性能的，很多时候不是“算不算得动”，而是“数据能不能足够快地搬过去”。 一、HBM 到底是什么？ HBM，全称 High Bandwidth Memory，中文叫高带宽内存。 它和普通电脑里的 DDR 内存条不一样。传统内存更像是放在主板另一端的“仓库”，数据要通过较长的线路传输到 CPU 或 GPU。而 HBM 的设计思路，是把多层 DRAM 芯片垂直堆叠起来，再放到 GPU 旁边，让数据传输距离大幅缩短。 简单理解就是： 普通内存是远处仓库，HBM 是贴身弹药库。 HBM 的优势主要有三点： 第一，带宽更高。 传统 DDR5 的数据总线宽度通常是 64 位，而 HBM3E 可以做到 1024 位，相当于把原来一条窄路，直接拓宽成十几车道的高速公路。 第二，距离更短。 HBM 不是远远插在主板上，而是通过先进封装和 GPU 放在同一个封装系统里。数据传输距离从几厘米缩短到几毫米。 第三，能效更好。 在数据中心里，电费和散热都是实打实的成本。HBM 在单位数据传输上的能耗比传统显存更低，因此不仅提升性能，也帮助降低整体系统能耗。 所以，HBM 不是单纯“更贵的","text":"过去两年，市场一提到 AI，第一反应往往是 GPU、英伟达、算力、数据中心。但如果继续往产业链深处看，会发现一个越来越重要的事实： AI 不是只缺 GPU，而是缺“能把数据快速喂给 GPU 的记忆体”。 这就是 HBM，也就是高带宽内存。 如果说 GPU 是 AI 的大脑，那么 HBM 就像大脑旁边的短期记忆。AI 模型每生成一个 token，都需要不断从内存里读取参数、搬运数据，再交给 GPU 计算。模型越大、参数越多、推理越复杂，对数据搬运速度的要求就越高。 问题是，GPU 的计算速度已经非常快，但内存把数据送过去的速度跟不上。这种瓶颈就是所谓的 Memory Wall，记忆体墙。 在 AI 时代，真正限制芯片发挥性能的，很多时候不是“算不算得动”，而是“数据能不能足够快地搬过去”。 一、HBM 到底是什么？ HBM，全称 High Bandwidth Memory，中文叫高带宽内存。 它和普通电脑里的 DDR 内存条不一样。传统内存更像是放在主板另一端的“仓库”，数据要通过较长的线路传输到 CPU 或 GPU。而 HBM 的设计思路，是把多层 DRAM 芯片垂直堆叠起来，再放到 GPU 旁边，让数据传输距离大幅缩短。 简单理解就是： 普通内存是远处仓库，HBM 是贴身弹药库。 HBM 的优势主要有三点： 第一，带宽更高。 传统 DDR5 的数据总线宽度通常是 64 位，而 HBM3E 可以做到 1024 位，相当于把原来一条窄路，直接拓宽成十几车道的高速公路。 第二，距离更短。 HBM 不是远远插在主板上，而是通过先进封装和 GPU 放在同一个封装系统里。数据传输距离从几厘米缩短到几毫米。 第三，能效更好。 在数据中心里，电费和散热都是实打实的成本。HBM 在单位数据传输上的能耗比传统显存更低，因此不仅提升性能，也帮助降低整体系统能耗。 所以，HBM 不是单纯“更贵的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31ee7d6d24ecb15012704531996f802f","width":"1024","height":"1536"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566688197575016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":567035857121344,"gmtCreate":1779457690609,"gmtModify":1779458508918,"author":{"id":"3525932369061002","authorId":"3525932369061002","name":"梅路艾姆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4029790b73ed661465b7e24c1c5ffc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3525932369061002","authorIdStr":"3525932369061002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/567035857121344","repostId":"565852346435736","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":565852346435736,"gmtCreate":1779181938606,"gmtModify":1779430589919,"author":{"id":"4204409696979492","authorId":"4204409696979492","name":"101可转债","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1e1b9822e92bc86c61b83b01a3007f8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4204409696979492","authorIdStr":"4204409696979492"},"themes":[],"title":"港股新股打新：华曦达 (00901.HK) 打新——全球最大AndroidTV终端供应商 中签预测","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00901\">$华曦达(00901)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03310\">$云英谷科技(03310)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02723\">$深演智能(02723)$</a> 基本情况： 申购时间：5月18日-5月21日，22号出结果，26号暗盘，27号上市； 发行价格：32.80 入场费：3313.08 1手：100股 全球发售：1920.73万股 公开发售：192.08万股 发行手数：19208手； 基石：无 绿鞋：无 保荐人：中信独家保荐 分配机制：机制B，回拨10% 华曦达成立于2003年，是一家专注于AI、边云计算、无线通信、物联网技术的AI Home整体解决方案提供商，深度融合谷歌生态。公司主要为全球运营商和零售品牌提供数字视讯设备 (流媒体终端、投影仪、摄像头)、网络通信设备 (光猫、路由器) 及系统平台服务；业务覆盖全球80多个国家和地区，服务300多家运营商和品牌。 根据弗若斯特沙利文数据，按2024年收益计，华曦达是全球第八大、中国第三大面向企业客户的智慧家庭解决方案提供商，市场份额2.7%；全球企业智慧家庭产品市场占整体智慧家庭市场的约14.7%。按2024年销量计，是全球最大的Android TV智能终端供应商。 财务表现： 2023年公司实现营业收入23.67亿元，2024年小幅增至25.41亿元，而2025年则大幅跃升至33.68亿元，同比增速达到32.5%。 毛利方面：2023年为5.00亿元，2024年略有回落至4.83亿元，到了2025年反弹至6.56亿元； 2023年盈利1.91亿元，2024年承压下滑至1.37亿元，2025年则显著恢复至2.39亿元，同","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00901\">$华曦达(00901)$</a> <a 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Home整体解决方案提供商，深度融合谷歌生态。公司主要为全球运营商和零售品牌提供数字视讯设备 (流媒体终端、投影仪、摄像头)、网络通信设备 (光猫、路由器) 及系统平台服务；业务覆盖全球80多个国家和地区，服务300多家运营商和品牌。 根据弗若斯特沙利文数据，按2024年收益计，华曦达是全球第八大、中国第三大面向企业客户的智慧家庭解决方案提供商，市场份额2.7%；全球企业智慧家庭产品市场占整体智慧家庭市场的约14.7%。按2024年销量计，是全球最大的Android TV智能终端供应商。 财务表现： 2023年公司实现营业收入23.67亿元，2024年小幅增至25.41亿元，而2025年则大幅跃升至33.68亿元，同比增速达到32.5%。 毛利方面：2023年为5.00亿元，2024年略有回落至4.83亿元，到了2025年反弹至6.56亿元； 2023年盈利1.91亿元，2024年承压下滑至1.37亿元，2025年则显著恢复至2.39亿元，同","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47c9324068bf5fafd8e847c9a4c2bd2d","width":"588","height":"771"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed69435781985746cbe380c2b1ab8b6","width":"802","height":"647"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2130b03bc6d5cc99bac28474c3a743e8","width":"854","height":"552"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/565852346435736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":567035773465200,"gmtCreate":1779457672432,"gmtModify":1779458509076,"author":{"id":"3525932369061002","authorId":"3525932369061002","name":"梅路艾姆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4029790b73ed661465b7e24c1c5ffc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3525932369061002","authorIdStr":"3525932369061002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/567035773465200","repostId":"566876746245744","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":566876746245744,"gmtCreate":1779432022919,"gmtModify":1779434338954,"author":{"id":"3572521563607136","authorId":"3572521563607136","name":"重生之我在老虎学炒股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4af0531b5a480806ad9527554d174ae7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572521563607136","authorIdStr":"3572521563607136"},"themes":[],"title":"英伟达财报全面超预期，股价却盘后跳水：AI龙头也开始交“完美税”了？","htmlText":"英伟达这份财报，其实已经强到有点“离谱”了。 美东时间周三盘后，NVIDIA公布2027财年第一财季业绩：营收816.2亿美元，同比增长85%；调整后每股收益1.87美元；核心数据中心业务收入752亿美元，同比增长92%，占总营收比重已经达到92%。按正常逻辑，这种级别的财报，市场应该继续狂欢才对。但现实却是——英伟达盘后股价先冲高，随后快速跳水，一度跌超3%，甚至周四仍然收跌1.77%。 整个盘面其实很有意思。一边，是公司继续刷新AI时代的增长纪录；另一边，却是资金开始明显犹豫。市场似乎正在进入一种新的状态：现在的英伟达，已经不是“超预期”就够了，而是必须“远超预期”，甚至还得顺带重新抬高未来两三年的增长天花板，市场才愿意继续给估值。 说白了，英伟达现在开始交“完美税”了。 AI算力需求，依旧强得夸张 先看财报本身。如果单纯从数据角度看，这份财报几乎挑不出什么明显毛病。英伟达第一财季营收达到816.2亿美元，高于市场预期的790亿美元左右；调整后EPS为1.87美元，同样高于市场预期。真正最核心的，还是数据中心业务。这一季度，英伟达数据中心收入达到752亿美元，同比暴增92%，环比继续增长21%，不仅再度刷新历史纪录，还继续贡献了公司超过九成收入。 这意味着什么？意味着全球AI基础设施建设，根本没有停。过去一段时间，市场一直在担心两件事： 第一，AI资本开支会不会开始降温； 第二，超大规模云厂商的钱，会不会开始不够花。 但至少从这份财报看，目前还完全看不到需求崩塌的迹象。 相反，现在的情况更像是：全球科技巨头、AI云厂商、企业级客户、主权AI项目，还在继续疯狂堆算力。 而且，英伟达已经不只是卖GPU那么简单了。这一季度，英伟达网络业务收入同比暴增199%，达到148亿美元。这说明AI基础设施已经从“单纯买芯片”，开始升级成“整套AI工厂”的建设逻辑。 市场买的，不再只是G","listText":"英伟达这份财报，其实已经强到有点“离谱”了。 美东时间周三盘后，NVIDIA公布2027财年第一财季业绩：营收816.2亿美元，同比增长85%；调整后每股收益1.87美元；核心数据中心业务收入752亿美元，同比增长92%，占总营收比重已经达到92%。按正常逻辑，这种级别的财报，市场应该继续狂欢才对。但现实却是——英伟达盘后股价先冲高，随后快速跳水，一度跌超3%，甚至周四仍然收跌1.77%。 整个盘面其实很有意思。一边，是公司继续刷新AI时代的增长纪录；另一边，却是资金开始明显犹豫。市场似乎正在进入一种新的状态：现在的英伟达，已经不是“超预期”就够了，而是必须“远超预期”，甚至还得顺带重新抬高未来两三年的增长天花板，市场才愿意继续给估值。 说白了，英伟达现在开始交“完美税”了。 AI算力需求，依旧强得夸张 先看财报本身。如果单纯从数据角度看，这份财报几乎挑不出什么明显毛病。英伟达第一财季营收达到816.2亿美元，高于市场预期的790亿美元左右；调整后EPS为1.87美元，同样高于市场预期。真正最核心的，还是数据中心业务。这一季度，英伟达数据中心收入达到752亿美元，同比暴增92%，环比继续增长21%，不仅再度刷新历史纪录，还继续贡献了公司超过九成收入。 这意味着什么？意味着全球AI基础设施建设，根本没有停。过去一段时间，市场一直在担心两件事： 第一，AI资本开支会不会开始降温； 第二，超大规模云厂商的钱，会不会开始不够花。 但至少从这份财报看，目前还完全看不到需求崩塌的迹象。 相反，现在的情况更像是：全球科技巨头、AI云厂商、企业级客户、主权AI项目，还在继续疯狂堆算力。 而且，英伟达已经不只是卖GPU那么简单了。这一季度，英伟达网络业务收入同比暴增199%，达到148亿美元。这说明AI基础设施已经从“单纯买芯片”，开始升级成“整套AI工厂”的建设逻辑。 市场买的，不再只是G","text":"英伟达这份财报，其实已经强到有点“离谱”了。 美东时间周三盘后，NVIDIA公布2027财年第一财季业绩：营收816.2亿美元，同比增长85%；调整后每股收益1.87美元；核心数据中心业务收入752亿美元，同比增长92%，占总营收比重已经达到92%。按正常逻辑，这种级别的财报，市场应该继续狂欢才对。但现实却是——英伟达盘后股价先冲高，随后快速跳水，一度跌超3%，甚至周四仍然收跌1.77%。 整个盘面其实很有意思。一边，是公司继续刷新AI时代的增长纪录；另一边，却是资金开始明显犹豫。市场似乎正在进入一种新的状态：现在的英伟达，已经不是“超预期”就够了，而是必须“远超预期”，甚至还得顺带重新抬高未来两三年的增长天花板，市场才愿意继续给估值。 说白了，英伟达现在开始交“完美税”了。 AI算力需求，依旧强得夸张 先看财报本身。如果单纯从数据角度看，这份财报几乎挑不出什么明显毛病。英伟达第一财季营收达到816.2亿美元，高于市场预期的790亿美元左右；调整后EPS为1.87美元，同样高于市场预期。真正最核心的，还是数据中心业务。这一季度，英伟达数据中心收入达到752亿美元，同比暴增92%，环比继续增长21%，不仅再度刷新历史纪录，还继续贡献了公司超过九成收入。 这意味着什么？意味着全球AI基础设施建设，根本没有停。过去一段时间，市场一直在担心两件事： 第一，AI资本开支会不会开始降温； 第二，超大规模云厂商的钱，会不会开始不够花。 但至少从这份财报看，目前还完全看不到需求崩塌的迹象。 相反，现在的情况更像是：全球科技巨头、AI云厂商、企业级客户、主权AI项目，还在继续疯狂堆算力。 而且，英伟达已经不只是卖GPU那么简单了。这一季度，英伟达网络业务收入同比暴增199%，达到148亿美元。这说明AI基础设施已经从“单纯买芯片”，开始升级成“整套AI工厂”的建设逻辑。 市场买的，不再只是G","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180270e30293acea57f5062ad56575f9","width":"1637","height":"960"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566876746245744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":566964945607584,"gmtCreate":1779457654005,"gmtModify":1779458509110,"author":{"id":"3525932369061002","authorId":"3525932369061002","name":"梅路艾姆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4029790b73ed661465b7e24c1c5ffc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3525932369061002","authorIdStr":"3525932369061002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566964945607584","repostId":"566988409008848","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":566988409008848,"gmtCreate":1779446109925,"gmtModify":1779449400297,"author":{"id":"3586347563730096","authorId":"3586347563730096","name":"AaronHy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45108470b279fe06f75566e2a9699141","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586347563730096","authorIdStr":"3586347563730096"},"themes":[],"title":"长文再谈英特尔 带你读懂英特尔","htmlText":"此文是全年写的为数不多的长篇分析，全文5200字，希望可以给到大家帮助[微笑] 过去10年英特尔让市场失望，太多次制成跳票服务器被AMD撕开，AI时代被英伟达抢走聚光灯，Foundry烧钱看不到尽头。‌ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$</a> 所以当英特尔股价一路上涨甚至创出新高的时候，很多人的第一反应不是重新研究它，而是觉得这下总该跌了吧。18A还没完全证明Foundry还没真正赚钱，AMD还在增长，英伟达还在统治AI，英特尔凭什么涨成这样？‌ 市场最折磨人的地方就在这里，它不是不跌，它当然会跌，可它偏偏没有按照大多数怀疑者期待的方式崩给你看。你等他财报翻车，他给你数据中心修复。你等Founder继续拖累，他给你18A预期。你等AMD继续单方面碾压，他却开始被市场重新定价。你等他彻底退出AI主线，他却靠AIPC,CPU推理和美国制造回流，重新回到资金视野。你以为自己是在等英特尔回调，其实很多时候你是在等市场证明自己没有踏空。[微笑] 如今真正刺痛人的问题，不是英特尔为什么涨了这么多，也不是现在到底还能不能追，而是为什么那么多人明明看到了英特尔的风险，却总是等不到自己想象中的崩盘。[微笑] 很多人等英特尔跌，不是因为他们不懂半导体，而是因为他们太熟悉过去那个失败的英特尔，他们看见18A，会想到10nm跳票，他们看见Foundry，会想到持续烧钱，他们看见数据中心增长，会想到AMD还在抢份额，他们看见ai PC, 会想到英伟达才是AI主线。过去的记忆太深，所以每一次英特尔上涨，他们都容易把它当成短线情绪。‌ 每一次股价创新高，他们都觉得风险更大，每一次市场重新讨论美国制造先进制程服务器、CPU修复，他们都觉得这只是旧公司包装出来的新故事。[微笑] 这其实是投资里最常见的一种心理错位，因为大多数人并不是在等一个合理","listText":"此文是全年写的为数不多的长篇分析，全文5200字，希望可以给到大家帮助[微笑] 过去10年英特尔让市场失望，太多次制成跳票服务器被AMD撕开，AI时代被英伟达抢走聚光灯，Foundry烧钱看不到尽头。‌ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$</a> 所以当英特尔股价一路上涨甚至创出新高的时候，很多人的第一反应不是重新研究它，而是觉得这下总该跌了吧。18A还没完全证明Foundry还没真正赚钱，AMD还在增长，英伟达还在统治AI，英特尔凭什么涨成这样？‌ 市场最折磨人的地方就在这里，它不是不跌，它当然会跌，可它偏偏没有按照大多数怀疑者期待的方式崩给你看。你等他财报翻车，他给你数据中心修复。你等Founder继续拖累，他给你18A预期。你等AMD继续单方面碾压，他却开始被市场重新定价。你等他彻底退出AI主线，他却靠AIPC,CPU推理和美国制造回流，重新回到资金视野。你以为自己是在等英特尔回调，其实很多时候你是在等市场证明自己没有踏空。[微笑] 如今真正刺痛人的问题，不是英特尔为什么涨了这么多，也不是现在到底还能不能追，而是为什么那么多人明明看到了英特尔的风险，却总是等不到自己想象中的崩盘。[微笑] 很多人等英特尔跌，不是因为他们不懂半导体，而是因为他们太熟悉过去那个失败的英特尔，他们看见18A，会想到10nm跳票，他们看见Foundry，会想到持续烧钱，他们看见数据中心增长，会想到AMD还在抢份额，他们看见ai PC, 会想到英伟达才是AI主线。过去的记忆太深，所以每一次英特尔上涨，他们都容易把它当成短线情绪。‌ 每一次股价创新高，他们都觉得风险更大，每一次市场重新讨论美国制造先进制程服务器、CPU修复，他们都觉得这只是旧公司包装出来的新故事。[微笑] 这其实是投资里最常见的一种心理错位，因为大多数人并不是在等一个合理","text":"此文是全年写的为数不多的长篇分析，全文5200字，希望可以给到大家帮助[微笑] 过去10年英特尔让市场失望，太多次制成跳票服务器被AMD撕开，AI时代被英伟达抢走聚光灯，Foundry烧钱看不到尽头。‌ $英特尔(INTC)$ 所以当英特尔股价一路上涨甚至创出新高的时候，很多人的第一反应不是重新研究它，而是觉得这下总该跌了吧。18A还没完全证明Foundry还没真正赚钱，AMD还在增长，英伟达还在统治AI，英特尔凭什么涨成这样？‌ 市场最折磨人的地方就在这里，它不是不跌，它当然会跌，可它偏偏没有按照大多数怀疑者期待的方式崩给你看。你等他财报翻车，他给你数据中心修复。你等Founder继续拖累，他给你18A预期。你等AMD继续单方面碾压，他却开始被市场重新定价。你等他彻底退出AI主线，他却靠AIPC,CPU推理和美国制造回流，重新回到资金视野。你以为自己是在等英特尔回调，其实很多时候你是在等市场证明自己没有踏空。[微笑] 如今真正刺痛人的问题，不是英特尔为什么涨了这么多，也不是现在到底还能不能追，而是为什么那么多人明明看到了英特尔的风险，却总是等不到自己想象中的崩盘。[微笑] 很多人等英特尔跌，不是因为他们不懂半导体，而是因为他们太熟悉过去那个失败的英特尔，他们看见18A，会想到10nm跳票，他们看见Foundry，会想到持续烧钱，他们看见数据中心增长，会想到AMD还在抢份额，他们看见ai PC, 会想到英伟达才是AI主线。过去的记忆太深，所以每一次英特尔上涨，他们都容易把它当成短线情绪。‌ 每一次股价创新高，他们都觉得风险更大，每一次市场重新讨论美国制造先进制程服务器、CPU修复，他们都觉得这只是旧公司包装出来的新故事。[微笑] 这其实是投资里最常见的一种心理错位，因为大多数人并不是在等一个合理","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4676f3bb0907a57e1fa198adcb3ed35","width":"1179","height":"2556"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7456bb0dffc1cd2c7423eccee79996c9","width":"1080","height":"1920"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/816c0af9b3bc37b7eff52ac0517330e5","width":"1179","height":"2556"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566988409008848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561334949901896,"gmtCreate":1778076388031,"gmtModify":1778078301749,"author":{"id":"3525932369061002","authorId":"3525932369061002","name":"梅路艾姆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4029790b73ed661465b7e24c1c5ffc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3525932369061002","authorIdStr":"3525932369061002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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