74f54440的个人主页 - 老虎社区

74f54440

74f54440

北美留学生

IP属地：未知

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0勋章

2019-07-08

$百威亚太(01876)$ 不懂就问是买的越多中签率越高吗

2020-02-21

$AMD(AMD)$今天刚入手可以吗？

2019-07-16

$海底捞(06862)$哎呦国金你随便评吧反正我一个月至少吃两次海底捞加上叫两次外卖[举爪]

2019-07-27

$万达体育(WSG)$老王不厚道啊不过也没办法谁让万达一直欠钱卖资产还债坑股民割韭菜怪不得集团发展这么差该

2019-07-16

$海底捞(06862)$？？？怎么回事

2019-11-06

$Shake Shack Inc(SHAK)$我们学校附近的shake shack都没人吃啊（听说在上海都要排队

2019-07-22

$法拉利(RACE)$when i was a little kid, I always dreamed to have one Ferrari.

2019-06-26

$锦欣生殖(01951)$ 会上10吗

2019-07-30

$特斯拉(TSLA)$📈🐝🌶️

2019-07-03

$中烟香港(06055)$ 还能上30吗？？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Guillen)的交易，这笔交易让他赚了约640万美元。文件显示，吉伦在9月1日以51.64美元的价格收购了1.5万股，这是2月20日通过的交易计划的一部分。同一天，他以479.00美元的加权平均价格卖出了15000股。此次拍卖通过一系列交易完成，价格从471.33美元到502.01美元不等。吉伦于2010年11月加入特斯拉，自2018年9月起担任特斯拉汽车公司总裁。马斯克的弟弟两天收益6.5倍埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)的弟弟金巴尔(Kimbal)本周行使了购买特斯拉股票的期权，似乎赚了800多万美元。两天前，他以买价的6.5倍出售了这些股票。对董事会成员金巴尔来说，时机很好，因为周二的股票出售已经完成，其中一些交易的执行价格超过了周一498.32美元的创纪录收盘价。该股周五大幅反弹，收于418.32美元，上涨2.8%，扭转了此前高达8.6%的跌幅。根据周四晚些时候向美国证券交易委员会提交的一份表格数据计算，9月1日，金巴尔·马斯克以大约482.59美元的加权平均价格售出了36375股特斯拉股票。文件显示，多笔交易的价格在471.33美元到502.01美元之间。这与杰罗姆·吉伦的卖出执行的价格范围相同。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉在9月4日的一份监管文件中披露，其董事会成员凯瑟琳·威尔逊-汤普森（Kathleen Wilson-Thompson）周一行使期权以每股44.95美元的价格买入12500股股票，然后即刻以超过10倍的价格卖出，获利500多万美元，并且成功地躲过了之后股价连续三个交易日的下跌。周四晚些时候，特斯拉还披露了内部人士杰罗姆·吉伦(Jerome Guillen)的交易，这笔交易让他赚了约640万美元。文件显示，吉伦在9月1日以51.64美元的价格收购了1.5万股，这是2月20日通过的交易计划的一部分。同一天，他以479.00美元的加权平均价格卖出了15000股。此次拍卖通过一系列交易完成，价格从471.33美元到502.01美元不等。吉伦于2010年11月加入特斯拉，自2018年9月起担任特斯拉汽车公司总裁。马斯克的弟弟两天收益6.5倍埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)的弟弟金巴尔(Kimbal)本周行使了购买特斯拉股票的期权，似乎赚了800多万美元。两天前，他以买价的6.5倍出售了这些股票。对董事会成员金巴尔来说，时机很好，因为周二的股票出售已经完成，其中一些交易的执行价格超过了周一498.32美元的创纪录收盘价。该股周五大幅反弹，收于418.32美元，上涨2.8%，扭转了此前高达8.6%的跌幅。根据周四晚些时候向美国证券交易委员会提交的一份表格数据计算，9月1日，金巴尔·马斯克以大约482.59美元的加权平均价格售出了36375股特斯拉股票。文件显示，多笔交易的价格在471.33美元到502.01美元之间。这与杰罗姆·吉伦的卖出执行的价格范围相同。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976363057","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976301049,"gmtCreate":1599576854981,"gmtModify":1703818942828,"author":{"id":"3522626839626830","authorId":"3522626839626830","name":"74f54440","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/default-avatar2.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3522626839626830","idStr":"3522626839626830"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976301049","repostId":"2065168782","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2065168782","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1599520271,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2065168782?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-08 07:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美股大跌后投机热情不减，三大风险正在发酵","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2065168782","media":"金十数据","summary":"从上周四（9月4日）开始，之前涨势如虹的美股突然掉头，连续收了两根大阴线，科技股集体带头大跌，纳指在两个交易日里就跌去了1000多点。","content":"<p>从上周四（9月4日）开始，之前涨势如虹的美股突然掉头，连续收了两根大阴线，科技股集体带头大跌，纳指在两个交易日里就跌去了1000多点。</p>\n<p>很多投资者都将此次美股下跌视为一次正常的回调。在还不确定回调是否结束之际，散户又开始进场，分析师则谨慎看涨。只有一群神秘的企业内部人士，早在一个月前就开始抛售股票。</p>\n<p>进入9月之后，疯狂的投机者或许应该收敛一些，相比于前几个月的平静，接下来的2个月，美股可能会更加动荡。</p>\n<p><b>01、内部抛售和狂热的投机行为</b></p>\n<p>对于美股上周大幅下跌的原因，金十在上周五的文章中已经提及（美股一夜变天，背后有四大因素在推动），这里不再赘述，其中散户狂热的投机行为备受关注，其实这群散户无意中成了他人的接盘侠。因为从一个月前开始，就有一群人在暗中抛售股票。</p>\n<p>企业内部人士大举抛售</p>\n<p>标普500指数在上周稍早触及纪录新高，标准普尔500指数的市盈率不久前刚刚突破互联网泡沫以来的历史高点。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/389fade37312bb8cf3a08cd83f29889c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"426\"></p>\n<p>如此高的估值引发了一些企业的内部抛售（在周四的恐慌性抛售之前），企业高管将价值数十亿美元的股票抛售给毫无防备的罗宾汉（Robinhood）交易员。</p>\n<p>Smart Insider为《媒体》汇编的数据显示，8月份，1042名首席执行官、首席财务官和公司董事进行了内幕交易，创下了2015年11月以来的最高成交额。在某些情况下，由于估值过高，出售股票的高管总数达到了2018年8月以来的最高水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05442c199aca5961db01a25e910d300c\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"518\"></p>\n<p>内部人士的抛售的原因是，仅仅少数几只科技股便将主要股指的远期市盈率推高至创纪录水平。内部人士大量抛售股票的景象表明，随着经济复苏停滞，这些商业精英并不相信目前的高估值。</p>\n<p>这种抛售在过去也发生过，<b>例如在2015年11月内部人士抛售了价值数十亿美元的股票，之后标准普尔500指数在65个交易日内暴跌近14%，在2016年1月底至2月底跌至低点。</b></p>\n<p>今年8月就存在几笔比较重大的内幕交易：</p>\n<p>美国工业综合企业Danaher的创始人史蒂文•拉莱斯（Steven Rales）和兄弟米切尔（Mitchell）是今年8月最大的卖家，他们出售了技术专业企业Fortive Group价值近10亿美元的股票。Fortive Group于2016年从Danaher分拆出来。拉莱斯获得了6.06亿美元，米切尔则获得了3.63亿美元。Fortive的股价已较3月份的低谷上涨了约四分之三。</p>\n<p>拥有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VCP.UK\">维多利亚</a>的秘密的L Brands创始人莱斯利•威斯纳（Leslie Wexner）出售了8900万美元的公司股票。自股市开始反弹以来，该公司股票已上涨了两倍多。</p>\n<p>经纪公司StoneX发布的一份报告显示，第二季度纳斯达克100指数科技股的内幕交易达到104亿美元，比2019年同期增长171%。</p>\n<p>在一些公司内部人士大幅抛售的同时，罗宾汉的短线交易者却在每次下跌时都在恐慌性买入，他们最终可能成为“接盘侠”。</p>\n<p><b>狂热的投机者</b></p>\n<p>在美国企业内部人士大幅抛售的同时，投机性看涨买盘最近却飙升至前所未有的水平。</p>\n<p>过去几周，看涨期权的交易量爆炸式增长，其中很多是指单个交易员的小额交易。期权市场上的个人投资者越来越多。目前，<b>离到期日不到两周的个股期权成交量占期权总成交量的69%，与7月底75%的峰值相差不远。上周在美国各交易所，人们购买的看涨看涨合约比看跌期权合约多2200万份，创下纪录。</b></p>\n<p>疯狂的不只是散户，软银这一巨头也参与了期权交易狂潮。<b>软银在过去一个月中抢购了数十亿美元的美国科技股期权，从而推动了交易量的增长，并引发美股交易狂潮。</b></p>\n<p>虽然上周四和周五美股经历了大幅下跌，但美国散户投资者并没有被吓到。<b>目前市场上“看涨情绪”依然盛行，特别是散户投资者群体，这可能会导致在美股完成一次调整之前出现几次“逢低买入”的行为。就像上周五那样，许多散户投资者将上周的抛售视为买入“便宜股票”的理由。</b></p>\n<p>我们可以通过观察投机性看涨期权的买入情况来验证这一观点，尽管股市回调，但散户投资者仍增加了看涨押注。此外，如此狂热的投机行为在历史上是前所未有。当这一切结束时，最终的结果也是显而易见的。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99df72e40d0f1451657d66a8a2920e12\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"488\"></p>\n<p>这些行为推高了看涨期权相对于看跌期权的价格，尤其是市场上流行的投机性期权。与此同时，<b>将看涨期权卖给交易员的做市商被迫通过买入相关股票进行对冲。</b>看涨期权溢价迅速上升推高了波动性指标，而交易商对股票的需求飙升推高了股价。然而，这种上涨并不可持续。<b>当股票价格大幅下跌时，做市商往往会选择平仓，从而引发市场抛售。</b></p>\n<p>业内人士早就暗示，<b>虽然目前的估值不是很危险，但今年夏天股市的反弹依然是不可持续的。</b></p>\n<p><b>02、美股回调尚未结束</b></p>\n<p>跟急于进场的散户投资者相比，一些业内分析师虽然保持长期看涨美股的观点，但却比之前更为谨慎。他们普遍认为美股的回调尚未结束，接下来就算上涨也不会像之前那样顺风顺水。</p>\n<p>SunTrust Advisory首席市场策略师基思·勒纳（Keith Lerner）表示，自3月份以来，<b>美股只出现过两次超过5%的回调，而牛市通常在前9个月中都会遭遇3-4次的回调。因此，他认为市场很有可能在年底前看到至少还会出现一次回调</b>。</p>\n<p>安联首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃尔-埃利安（Mohamed El-Erian）接受媒体采访时也表示，<b>如果投资者关注的焦点从技术面转向基本面，美国股市可能会再次下跌，跌幅可能在10%左右。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9100a08bedce9f826b1b6305cfd8a6dc\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"638\"></p>\n<p>原因在于，美股目前仍然与实体经济脱钩。如果投资者回归基本面，那么可能会出现进一步的抛盘，因为许多人将被迫承认复苏放缓和公司破产潮的迫近。</p>\n<p>美国企业破产数量已经达到了10年来的最高点。截至8月9日，已有424家公司申请破产。仅在7月27日至8月9日之间，就有31家公司申请破产。企业破产对大多数行业产生了影响，以消费者为中心的公司受到的打击最大。根据标准普尔全球市场情报公司（S＆P Global Market Intelligence）的数据，今年已有100家消费类公司提交了申请，其中包括大型零售商。</p>\n<p><b>03、不确定性上升，接下来2个月更危险</b></p>\n<p>在接下来的2个月里，如果美股的投机热情依然不减，可能会加剧美股崩盘的风险。因为相比于前几个月的平均，接下来2个月市场将面临更大的不确定性，美股波动性也将上升。无脑做多的行为可能会令投资者付出沉重的代价。</p>\n<p><b>美股波动性或上升</b></p>\n<p>自3月触底反弹以来，美股的上涨可以说是顺风顺水，虽然上涨过程中也有出现一些小幅的回调，但上涨趋势始终未改变。</p>\n<p>从8月份开始，标普500波动率指数（VIX）有所上升，这并不是一个好兆头，而9月和10月通常是一年中较为动荡的时期。9月是标准普尔500指数表现最差的月份。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/938273751ed450f571efe36cc1214c0d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>美股的季节性疲软通常出现在第三季度末至第四季度初，在接下来的四周里，季节性因素可能会更有利于空头，<b>在大多数情况下，9月份是标准普尔500指数表现最差的月份。</b></p>\n<p>CFRA的数据显示，自1944年以来，标普500指数9月份平均下跌0.5%，而且，在此期间中每个选举年的平均跌幅都是如此。平均跌幅最大的是周期性股票，包括汽车零部件、钢铁和半导体。</p>\n<p>股市下跌时，波动性往往会增加。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>股价连续几天下跌了7%，少数大型科技股的隐含波动率指数大幅上升，这在纳斯达克指数VXN中得到了体现。</p>\n<p>过去几周，尽管价格在上涨，但科技股的波动性有所上升。这种市场行为通常是不可持续的，因为指数几乎失去了控制，所以修正是必然的结果。</p>\n<p>从基本面来看，接下来美股也面临更大的不确定性。除了2个月后的美国大选，卫生事件也可能再次打压美股。</p>\n<p><b>美国卫生事件可能再次爆发</b></p>\n<p>近日，美国传染病专家发出警告，寒冷天气下美国卫生事件病例数可能会再度激增，人们担心的第二波卫生事件可能几周后就会到来。</p>\n<p>目前来看，美国至少有27个州的新增病例数还在不断增加。一方面，周末期间加利福尼亚州和佛罗里达州的海滩上人满为患，增加了传染的风险，导致病例数激增；另一方面，美国进入秋冬季，寒冷的天气将导致卫生事件将开始更猛烈地传播。</p>\n<p>Wolfe Research的首席投资策略师克里斯•森耶克（Chris Senyek） 表示，<b>人们担心秋冬季美国卫生事件反弹，也是股市减持的原因。</b></p>\n<p><b>大选风险开始显现</b></p>\n<p>虽说这次的美股大跌跟大选没什么关系，但是距离美国大选仅剩2个月左右的时间，</p>\n<p>随着美国大选越来越近，<b>特朗普可能会为了连任在一些敏感问题上借题发挥，导致国际形势的不确定性上升，令金融市场的风险偏好遭受打击。如果没有新的利好，在潜在利空以及不确定性上升面前，投资者可能会选择高位套现离场。</b></p>\n<p>许多美股投资者表示，<b>未来两个月，美国大选可能比科技股更能左右美股的走势，一些投资者已经开始对冲此类风险。对于美股投资者来说，看跌期权是最普遍的对冲方式。</b></p>\n<p>分析师希尔斯（Steven M. Sears）表示，如果要对冲美国大选后10%左右的跌幅，投资者可以以42900美元的价格买入标准普尔500指数11月3日的3500美元看跌期权，以对冲一个100万美元的投资组合。如果标准普尔500指数到期时跌至3200点，期权价值就是90000美元，对冲带来48000美元的利润。</p>\n<p>SpiderRock Advisors的首席投资官梅茨（Eric Metz）也为其客户提供了一项看跌期权，<b>如果明年标普500指数的跌幅达到25%，持有这种看跌期权的投资者就能从中获利。他表示，美国大选的不确定性增加了投资者对这类期权的兴趣。</b></p>\n<p>总之，美国劳工节过后，看涨者要更加谨慎，接下来的2个月美股恐怕不会继续一帆风顺。</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股大跌后投机热情不减，三大风险正在发酵</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股大跌后投机热情不减，三大风险正在发酵\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-09-08 07:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/335397.html><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>从上周四（9月4日）开始，之前涨势如虹的美股突然掉头，连续收了两根大阴线，科技股集体带头大跌，纳指在两个交易日里就跌去了1000多点。\n很多投资者都将此次美股下跌视为一次正常的回调。在还不确定回调是否结束之际，散户又开始进场，分析师则谨慎看涨。只有一群神秘的企业内部人士，早在一个月前就开始抛售股票。\n进入9月之后，疯狂的投机者或许应该收敛一些，相比于前几个月的平静，接下来的2个月，美股可能会更加...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/335397.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d23228401e035d68a6421710706fff9d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/335397.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2065168782","content_text":"从上周四（9月4日）开始，之前涨势如虹的美股突然掉头，连续收了两根大阴线，科技股集体带头大跌，纳指在两个交易日里就跌去了1000多点。\n很多投资者都将此次美股下跌视为一次正常的回调。在还不确定回调是否结束之际，散户又开始进场，分析师则谨慎看涨。只有一群神秘的企业内部人士，早在一个月前就开始抛售股票。\n进入9月之后，疯狂的投机者或许应该收敛一些，相比于前几个月的平静，接下来的2个月，美股可能会更加动荡。\n01、内部抛售和狂热的投机行为\n对于美股上周大幅下跌的原因，金十在上周五的文章中已经提及（美股一夜变天，背后有四大因素在推动），这里不再赘述，其中散户狂热的投机行为备受关注，其实这群散户无意中成了他人的接盘侠。因为从一个月前开始，就有一群人在暗中抛售股票。\n企业内部人士大举抛售\n标普500指数在上周稍早触及纪录新高，标准普尔500指数的市盈率不久前刚刚突破互联网泡沫以来的历史高点。\n\n如此高的估值引发了一些企业的内部抛售（在周四的恐慌性抛售之前），企业高管将价值数十亿美元的股票抛售给毫无防备的罗宾汉（Robinhood）交易员。\nSmart Insider为《媒体》汇编的数据显示，8月份，1042名首席执行官、首席财务官和公司董事进行了内幕交易，创下了2015年11月以来的最高成交额。在某些情况下，由于估值过高，出售股票的高管总数达到了2018年8月以来的最高水平。\n\n内部人士的抛售的原因是，仅仅少数几只科技股便将主要股指的远期市盈率推高至创纪录水平。内部人士大量抛售股票的景象表明，随着经济复苏停滞，这些商业精英并不相信目前的高估值。\n这种抛售在过去也发生过，例如在2015年11月内部人士抛售了价值数十亿美元的股票，之后标准普尔500指数在65个交易日内暴跌近14%，在2016年1月底至2月底跌至低点。\n今年8月就存在几笔比较重大的内幕交易：\n美国工业综合企业Danaher的创始人史蒂文•拉莱斯（Steven Rales）和兄弟米切尔（Mitchell）是今年8月最大的卖家，他们出售了技术专业企业Fortive Group价值近10亿美元的股票。Fortive Group于2016年从Danaher分拆出来。拉莱斯获得了6.06亿美元，米切尔则获得了3.63亿美元。Fortive的股价已较3月份的低谷上涨了约四分之三。\n拥有维多利亚的秘密的L Brands创始人莱斯利•威斯纳（Leslie Wexner）出售了8900万美元的公司股票。自股市开始反弹以来，该公司股票已上涨了两倍多。\n经纪公司StoneX发布的一份报告显示，第二季度纳斯达克100指数科技股的内幕交易达到104亿美元，比2019年同期增长171%。\n在一些公司内部人士大幅抛售的同时，罗宾汉的短线交易者却在每次下跌时都在恐慌性买入，他们最终可能成为“接盘侠”。\n狂热的投机者\n在美国企业内部人士大幅抛售的同时，投机性看涨买盘最近却飙升至前所未有的水平。\n过去几周，看涨期权的交易量爆炸式增长，其中很多是指单个交易员的小额交易。期权市场上的个人投资者越来越多。目前，离到期日不到两周的个股期权成交量占期权总成交量的69%，与7月底75%的峰值相差不远。上周在美国各交易所，人们购买的看涨看涨合约比看跌期权合约多2200万份，创下纪录。\n疯狂的不只是散户，软银这一巨头也参与了期权交易狂潮。软银在过去一个月中抢购了数十亿美元的美国科技股期权，从而推动了交易量的增长，并引发美股交易狂潮。\n虽然上周四和周五美股经历了大幅下跌，但美国散户投资者并没有被吓到。目前市场上“看涨情绪”依然盛行，特别是散户投资者群体，这可能会导致在美股完成一次调整之前出现几次“逢低买入”的行为。就像上周五那样，许多散户投资者将上周的抛售视为买入“便宜股票”的理由。\n我们可以通过观察投机性看涨期权的买入情况来验证这一观点，尽管股市回调，但散户投资者仍增加了看涨押注。此外，如此狂热的投机行为在历史上是前所未有。当这一切结束时，最终的结果也是显而易见的。\n\n这些行为推高了看涨期权相对于看跌期权的价格，尤其是市场上流行的投机性期权。与此同时，将看涨期权卖给交易员的做市商被迫通过买入相关股票进行对冲。看涨期权溢价迅速上升推高了波动性指标，而交易商对股票的需求飙升推高了股价。然而，这种上涨并不可持续。当股票价格大幅下跌时，做市商往往会选择平仓，从而引发市场抛售。\n业内人士早就暗示，虽然目前的估值不是很危险，但今年夏天股市的反弹依然是不可持续的。\n02、美股回调尚未结束\n跟急于进场的散户投资者相比，一些业内分析师虽然保持长期看涨美股的观点，但却比之前更为谨慎。他们普遍认为美股的回调尚未结束，接下来就算上涨也不会像之前那样顺风顺水。\nSunTrust Advisory首席市场策略师基思·勒纳（Keith Lerner）表示，自3月份以来，美股只出现过两次超过5%的回调，而牛市通常在前9个月中都会遭遇3-4次的回调。因此，他认为市场很有可能在年底前看到至少还会出现一次回调。\n安联首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃尔-埃利安（Mohamed El-Erian）接受媒体采访时也表示，如果投资者关注的焦点从技术面转向基本面，美国股市可能会再次下跌，跌幅可能在10%左右。\n\n原因在于，美股目前仍然与实体经济脱钩。如果投资者回归基本面，那么可能会出现进一步的抛盘，因为许多人将被迫承认复苏放缓和公司破产潮的迫近。\n美国企业破产数量已经达到了10年来的最高点。截至8月9日，已有424家公司申请破产。仅在7月27日至8月9日之间，就有31家公司申请破产。企业破产对大多数行业产生了影响，以消费者为中心的公司受到的打击最大。根据标准普尔全球市场情报公司（S＆P Global Market Intelligence）的数据，今年已有100家消费类公司提交了申请，其中包括大型零售商。\n03、不确定性上升，接下来2个月更危险\n在接下来的2个月里，如果美股的投机热情依然不减，可能会加剧美股崩盘的风险。因为相比于前几个月的平均，接下来2个月市场将面临更大的不确定性，美股波动性也将上升。无脑做多的行为可能会令投资者付出沉重的代价。\n美股波动性或上升\n自3月触底反弹以来，美股的上涨可以说是顺风顺水，虽然上涨过程中也有出现一些小幅的回调，但上涨趋势始终未改变。\n从8月份开始，标普500波动率指数（VIX）有所上升，这并不是一个好兆头，而9月和10月通常是一年中较为动荡的时期。9月是标准普尔500指数表现最差的月份。\n\n美股的季节性疲软通常出现在第三季度末至第四季度初，在接下来的四周里，季节性因素可能会更有利于空头，在大多数情况下，9月份是标准普尔500指数表现最差的月份。\nCFRA的数据显示，自1944年以来，标普500指数9月份平均下跌0.5%，而且，在此期间中每个选举年的平均跌幅都是如此。平均跌幅最大的是周期性股票，包括汽车零部件、钢铁和半导体。\n股市下跌时，波动性往往会增加。苹果股价连续几天下跌了7%，少数大型科技股的隐含波动率指数大幅上升，这在纳斯达克指数VXN中得到了体现。\n过去几周，尽管价格在上涨，但科技股的波动性有所上升。这种市场行为通常是不可持续的，因为指数几乎失去了控制，所以修正是必然的结果。\n从基本面来看，接下来美股也面临更大的不确定性。除了2个月后的美国大选，卫生事件也可能再次打压美股。\n美国卫生事件可能再次爆发\n近日，美国传染病专家发出警告，寒冷天气下美国卫生事件病例数可能会再度激增，人们担心的第二波卫生事件可能几周后就会到来。\n目前来看，美国至少有27个州的新增病例数还在不断增加。一方面，周末期间加利福尼亚州和佛罗里达州的海滩上人满为患，增加了传染的风险，导致病例数激增；另一方面，美国进入秋冬季，寒冷的天气将导致卫生事件将开始更猛烈地传播。\nWolfe Research的首席投资策略师克里斯•森耶克（Chris Senyek） 表示，人们担心秋冬季美国卫生事件反弹，也是股市减持的原因。\n大选风险开始显现\n虽说这次的美股大跌跟大选没什么关系，但是距离美国大选仅剩2个月左右的时间，\n随着美国大选越来越近，特朗普可能会为了连任在一些敏感问题上借题发挥，导致国际形势的不确定性上升，令金融市场的风险偏好遭受打击。如果没有新的利好，在潜在利空以及不确定性上升面前，投资者可能会选择高位套现离场。\n许多美股投资者表示，未来两个月，美国大选可能比科技股更能左右美股的走势，一些投资者已经开始对冲此类风险。对于美股投资者来说，看跌期权是最普遍的对冲方式。\n分析师希尔斯（Steven M. Sears）表示，如果要对冲美国大选后10%左右的跌幅，投资者可以以42900美元的价格买入标准普尔500指数11月3日的3500美元看跌期权，以对冲一个100万美元的投资组合。如果标准普尔500指数到期时跌至3200点，期权价值就是90000美元，对冲带来48000美元的利润。\nSpiderRock Advisors的首席投资官梅茨（Eric Metz）也为其客户提供了一项看跌期权，如果明年标普500指数的跌幅达到25%，持有这种看跌期权的投资者就能从中获利。他表示，美国大选的不确定性增加了投资者对这类期权的兴趣。\n总之，美国劳工节过后，看涨者要更加谨慎，接下来的2个月美股恐怕不会继续一帆风顺。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".INX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":973420787,"gmtCreate":1598602189949,"gmtModify":1704219783519,"author":{"id":"3522626839626830","authorId":"3522626839626830","name":"74f54440","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/default-avatar2.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3522626839626830","idStr":"3522626839626830"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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