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Trendy_3284
2025-05-21
$铂金主连 2507(PLmain)$
稀有金属投资, 燃料电池,制氢等新需求会不会让比黄金更稀有的铂供不应求
Trendy_3284
04-15
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
美股大泡泡A股大泡泡,全球主要市场均出现了大泡泡
Trendy_3284
04-17
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
量化控盘依然看空,横盘震荡概率大,扩张大三角走出整理最后选择方向,(美股期指目前仍是升水,A股贴水好久了,两市场规则玩法不一样)待美股高估泡沫形成市场共识,目前市场类似碟中谍中的“智体”控盘,短线可博弈,谨慎仍然第一,A股中际旭创,新易盛,天孚通信等等成交额几乎天天霸榜已经持续了2年了,A股指数规则之下这些庄家已经控制了指数,并且与政策配合的天衣无缝。美股量化占比差不多80%了,A股少说也得60%以上了。。。。。。
Trendy_3284
04-14
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
世界股市泡沫目前太大了,人工智能量化交易还在激烈博弈,等待有远见的机构将智能模式主动切换为人工手动交易模式,打破AI博弈
Trendy_3284
06-06
资本是逐利的,美债收益率比99.99%的上市公司的股息都香啊
腾讯“造芯”避开英伟达
Trendy_3284
04-23
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
待泡沫形成市场共识
Trendy_3284
04-23
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
大扩张三角整理后做头概率增大,看横盘多久,AI加持或许横盘震荡会很久
Trendy_3284
04-14
$标普500(.SPX)$
世界股市泡沫目前太大了,人工智能量化交易还在激烈博弈,等待有远见的机构将智能模式主动切换为人工手动交易模式,打破AI博弈
Trendy_3284
04-14
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
世界股市泡沫目前太大了,人工智能量化交易还在激烈博弈,等待有远见的机构将智能模式主动切换为人工手动交易模式,打破AI博弈
Trendy_3284
2025-06-27
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
人工智能量化时代之下就股市指数而言由过去的80%时间的下跌和横盘,演变成80%时间上涨和横盘,可惜A股没有T+0,散户的交易机会就少了许多许多
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03:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"腾讯“造芯”避开英伟达","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2641128978","media":"中国经营网","summary":"在2026年的资本市场上,没有什么比“芯片”二字更能撩动投资者的神经。从英伟达到AMD,芯片巨头们的股价伴随着全球对算力的饥渴一路狂飙。2026年,美股费城半导体指数年内暴涨近80%,A股半导体指数普遍涨幅超过30%。与此形成鲜明对比的是,互联网公司股价大部分在今年出现了较大回撤,即使是业绩稳健增长的腾讯,股价也从年内的高点到现在的最大跌幅已超过30%。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p><img border=\"0\" height=\"276\" src=\"https://webquoteklinepic.eastmoney.com/GetPic.aspx?nid=116.00700&imageType=k&token=28dfeb41d35cc81d84b4664d7c23c49f&at=1\" width=\"578\"/></p><p> 在2026年的资本市场上,没有什么比“芯片”二字更能撩动投资者的神经。从<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a></span><span></span>到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>,芯片巨头们的股价伴随着全球对算力的饥渴一路狂飙。</p><p> 2026年,美股费城<span>半导体</span><span></span>指数年内暴涨近80%,A股<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK1036\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">半导体</span>指数普遍涨幅超过30%。与此形成鲜明对比的是,互联网公司股价大部分在今年出现了较大回撤,即使是业绩稳健增长的腾讯,股价也从年内的高点到现在的最大跌幅已超过30%。</p><p> 在这场通用算力的狂欢中,5月底,腾讯也交出了一颗自研的芯片——“沧海V2”视频专用编解码芯片。</p><p> 腾讯宣布“沧海V2”芯片在俄罗斯莫斯科国立大学举办的MSU硬件视频编码大赛中,于30至240fps所有速度档位的SSIM、PSNR、VMAF等全部指标上斩获第一,多项指标领先第二名超过30%。腾讯方面还表示,这颗芯片计划于2026年下半年正式量产。</p><p> 此时,腾讯推出视频芯片,能否在这波算力狂欢中推动股价回升呢?</p><p> “对于腾讯这种体量的公司,单纯靠一款芯片量产来提升估值很难。”谈芯首席分析师王树一对记者说道。</p><p> <strong>腾讯的经济账</strong></p><p> 当外界普遍认为互联网大厂造芯必须追赶<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.NVDA\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">英伟达</span>时,腾讯选择了一条截然不同的小路。这条路不通向通用<span>AI芯片</span><span></span>的红海,而是深深扎进腾讯最熟悉的护城河——视频。</p><p> 想要理解腾讯为什么做视频芯片,要看懂它财报里的一个细节。在腾讯2026年第一季度的财报中,游戏与社交贡献了近半利润,而包括视频号、<span>腾讯云</span><span></span>在内的生态基础设施业务,占比已达30%。这些业务有一个共同的底层消耗是带宽。</p><p> “腾讯最不缺的是视频流量,每天上亿场直播、4K点播,还有庞大的云游戏业务。”鼎信汇金研究员孙依妮对记者算了一笔账,“腾讯通过自研芯片每节省1%的带宽成本,那也是天文数字。而且视频不卡顿了、延迟更低,也会吸引更多的付费用户。”</p><p> 这正是“沧海”系列芯片诞生的最直接驱动力。不同于<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.NVDA\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">英伟达</span>、AMD面向所有开发者销售通用芯片,腾讯的芯片首先是“自用”。</p><p> 中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文喜分析认为,腾讯选择视频专用芯片而非通用算力,是高度理性的“扬长避短”策略。“视频编解码是腾讯最核心的业务场景,包括微信视频号、腾讯视频、云游戏、直播等,这些业务需求明确、算法可控、优化空间大,属于需求驱动型造芯。”</p><p> 记者从腾讯方面获悉,第一代“沧海”芯片已在其内部及公有云场景部署超过10万片。而“沧海V2”的压缩效率较上一代进一步提升:支持H.266标准后,压缩率提升超30%。这意味着,在同样画质下,传输视频的带宽可以省下近三分之一。</p><p> 也就是说,当整个行业为获取昂贵的英伟达芯片而排队时,腾讯自研“沧海”系列芯片,其实是选择了一条能直接转化为财报利润的造芯路径。</p><p> 孙依妮补充道:“在硬件方面,我们相比英伟达、AMD等头部厂商还有一些距离,而且腾讯本身也并不是专门研发制造芯片的科技公司,作为最大的娱乐平台,通过自研的技术芯片帮助优化视频效果是最直接产生效益的方案。”</p><p> 但现实的问题在于,这种“省钱”的故事,在资本市场上的估值系数,远低于“赚钱”的故事。英伟达之所以能享受数十倍的市盈率,是因为它的芯片被全世界的云厂商、AI公司争相抢购,每一颗芯片都在创造增量收入。</p><p> <strong>差异化的造芯路径</strong></p><p> 腾讯不是第一家自研芯片的国内互联网大厂,如果把腾讯与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>、字节、<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a></span><span></span>的芯片布局放在一起,可以看到各家在芯片上的布局各有不同。</p><p> 其中,<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.BIDU\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度</a></span>昆仑芯起步最早,不过聚焦在<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK1127\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">AI芯片</span>上,包括AI训练芯片和AI推理芯片;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里</a>平头哥的芯片产品线最广,跨界了CPU、AI、IoT等;字节跳动虽然入局芯片的时间较晚,但速度迅猛,已经在研发AI推理、通用CPU、视频转码等芯片。</p><p> 腾讯的芯片研发则更聚焦于自己的使用场景。2019年腾讯开始自研芯片,2021年首次披露了三款自研芯片,包括AI推理芯片紫霄、视频转码芯片沧海和智能网卡芯片玄灵。</p><p> 其中,“沧海”芯片在2023年已经量产并大规模应用。目前,“沧海V1”已经在<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK1189\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">腾讯云</span>以及腾讯自有场景中规模部署超10万片,覆盖直播和点播、4K超高清高帧率转码、云游戏实时编码、多媒体处理等核心场景。</p><p> “通用算力芯片面对英伟达、AMD的成熟生态,投入巨大且替代难度极高;视频转码芯片场景封闭、软件栈可控,更容易实现算法与硬件协同优化,腾讯的做法是典型的扬长避短。”柏文喜直言,腾讯此举也恰好填补了国内云端芯片在“多媒体处理”细分赛道的空白。</p><p> 王树一则指出:“虽然都是互联网大厂,但各自优势领域不同。腾讯在音视频领域的市占率极高,从这里入手自研硬件,进退都有很好的基础。”</p><p> 据介绍,腾讯“沧海”系列芯片深度融合软件算法与硬件架构,实现了全链路软硬件协同优化,从而实现压缩效率的最大化。</p><p> “简言之,腾讯‘沧海V2’的技术逻辑,从一开始就放弃了‘堆硬件’的路线。”孙依妮评价道,“它不靠算力堆砌提升性能,而是像电网调度<span>电力</span><span></span>一样,用算法动态分配算力,核心差异就是腾讯更重软件算法,而非硬件参数。”</p><p> 也就是说,当画面复杂时,“沧海V2”会自动提升编码质量,画面单调时主动压缩。同时,芯片内置了GPU核心,实现了渲染与编码在同一芯片上协同工作,数据无须来回拷贝,直接解决了云游戏场景中长期存在的延迟痛点。</p><p> 从行业竞争程度来看,在通用芯片领域,国产厂商与海外巨头的差距仍以年为单位计算;但在视频领域,国内外差距并不大。王树一指出:“无论是端侧还是云侧的视频处理芯片,本土都有非常优秀的产品,国际公司虽然可能有工艺优势,但本土公司在应用生态上极其丰富,通过深度优化应用来倒推芯片设计,反而有一定的优势。”</p><p> <strong>造芯能否撑起股价?</strong></p><p> 进入2026年之后,全球芯片板块在AI需求与供给紧张的叙事下走出一波历史性行情,但同一段时间里,<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a></span>的股价却较年初高位回落。一边是<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK1127\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">AI芯片</span>公司估值动辄百倍市销率,一边是腾讯市盈率降至15倍以下,被贴上“传统互联网”标签。</p><p> “沧海V2”的横空出世,能否打破腾讯的市值困境?</p><p> “芯片自研高投入、长周期,V2量产不会直接贡献营收,对股价只有情绪面提振;资本市场对腾讯的核心估值逻辑,依然是微信生态、游戏、AI落地,芯片只是基础设施,不是独立估值引擎。”柏文喜说道。</p><p> 在王树一看来:“单靠一款芯片提升估值很难,只有自研大规模铺开,成本与效用真正转化为财务收益,才能支撑长期估值。” 也就是说,市场不缺 “科技故事”,缺的是 “利润兑现”。</p><p> 如果“沧海”系列能持续降低视频业务成本并对外输出,它将改善市场对腾讯“创新业务盈利能力”的预期,但这是一个漫长的过程。</p><p> 而在孙依妮看来,腾讯做的不是平台而是生态,生态的好处就在于其网络效应和转换成本极难替代。“只要腾讯的财报可以保证10%及以上的增长,那就会像英伟达一样,有长期的估值增长空间。自研视频芯片虽然只是腾讯这棵大树的一条分枝,但也是腾讯枝繁叶茂的基础。”</p><p>(文章来源:中国经营网)</p> </div></body></html>","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n腾讯“造芯”避开英伟达\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-06 03:44 北京时间 <a href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202606063762331668.html><strong>中国经营网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在2026年的资本市场上,没有什么比“芯片”二字更能撩动投资者的神经。从英伟达到AMD,芯片巨头们的股价伴随着全球对算力的饥渴一路狂飙。 2026年,美股费城半导体指数年内暴涨近80%,A股半导体指数普遍涨幅超过30%。与此形成鲜明对比的是,互联网公司股价大部分在今年出现了较大回撤,即使是业绩稳健增长的腾讯,股价也从年内的高点到现在的最大跌幅已超过30%。 在这场通用算力的狂欢中,5月底,腾讯...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202606063762331668.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK1526":"科网股","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU2462591350.SGD":"T ROWE PRICE US LARGE CAP GROWTH EQUITY \"AN\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0054450605.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKTS EQ \"AD\" INC","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU0049853897.USD":"SCHRODER ISF EMERGING MARKETS \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1934455277.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202606063762331668.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2641128978","content_text":"在2026年的资本市场上,没有什么比“芯片”二字更能撩动投资者的神经。从英伟达到AMD,芯片巨头们的股价伴随着全球对算力的饥渴一路狂飙。 2026年,美股费城半导体指数年内暴涨近80%,A股半导体指数普遍涨幅超过30%。与此形成鲜明对比的是,互联网公司股价大部分在今年出现了较大回撤,即使是业绩稳健增长的腾讯,股价也从年内的高点到现在的最大跌幅已超过30%。 在这场通用算力的狂欢中,5月底,腾讯也交出了一颗自研的芯片——“沧海V2”视频专用编解码芯片。 腾讯宣布“沧海V2”芯片在俄罗斯莫斯科国立大学举办的MSU硬件视频编码大赛中,于30至240fps所有速度档位的SSIM、PSNR、VMAF等全部指标上斩获第一,多项指标领先第二名超过30%。腾讯方面还表示,这颗芯片计划于2026年下半年正式量产。 此时,腾讯推出视频芯片,能否在这波算力狂欢中推动股价回升呢? “对于腾讯这种体量的公司,单纯靠一款芯片量产来提升估值很难。”谈芯首席分析师王树一对记者说道。 腾讯的经济账 当外界普遍认为互联网大厂造芯必须追赶英伟达时,腾讯选择了一条截然不同的小路。这条路不通向通用AI芯片的红海,而是深深扎进腾讯最熟悉的护城河——视频。 想要理解腾讯为什么做视频芯片,要看懂它财报里的一个细节。在腾讯2026年第一季度的财报中,游戏与社交贡献了近半利润,而包括视频号、腾讯云在内的生态基础设施业务,占比已达30%。这些业务有一个共同的底层消耗是带宽。 “腾讯最不缺的是视频流量,每天上亿场直播、4K点播,还有庞大的云游戏业务。”鼎信汇金研究员孙依妮对记者算了一笔账,“腾讯通过自研芯片每节省1%的带宽成本,那也是天文数字。而且视频不卡顿了、延迟更低,也会吸引更多的付费用户。” 这正是“沧海”系列芯片诞生的最直接驱动力。不同于英伟达、AMD面向所有开发者销售通用芯片,腾讯的芯片首先是“自用”。 中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文喜分析认为,腾讯选择视频专用芯片而非通用算力,是高度理性的“扬长避短”策略。“视频编解码是腾讯最核心的业务场景,包括微信视频号、腾讯视频、云游戏、直播等,这些业务需求明确、算法可控、优化空间大,属于需求驱动型造芯。” 记者从腾讯方面获悉,第一代“沧海”芯片已在其内部及公有云场景部署超过10万片。而“沧海V2”的压缩效率较上一代进一步提升:支持H.266标准后,压缩率提升超30%。这意味着,在同样画质下,传输视频的带宽可以省下近三分之一。 也就是说,当整个行业为获取昂贵的英伟达芯片而排队时,腾讯自研“沧海”系列芯片,其实是选择了一条能直接转化为财报利润的造芯路径。 孙依妮补充道:“在硬件方面,我们相比英伟达、AMD等头部厂商还有一些距离,而且腾讯本身也并不是专门研发制造芯片的科技公司,作为最大的娱乐平台,通过自研的技术芯片帮助优化视频效果是最直接产生效益的方案。” 但现实的问题在于,这种“省钱”的故事,在资本市场上的估值系数,远低于“赚钱”的故事。英伟达之所以能享受数十倍的市盈率,是因为它的芯片被全世界的云厂商、AI公司争相抢购,每一颗芯片都在创造增量收入。 差异化的造芯路径 腾讯不是第一家自研芯片的国内互联网大厂,如果把腾讯与阿里、字节、百度的芯片布局放在一起,可以看到各家在芯片上的布局各有不同。 其中,百度昆仑芯起步最早,不过聚焦在AI芯片上,包括AI训练芯片和AI推理芯片;阿里平头哥的芯片产品线最广,跨界了CPU、AI、IoT等;字节跳动虽然入局芯片的时间较晚,但速度迅猛,已经在研发AI推理、通用CPU、视频转码等芯片。 腾讯的芯片研发则更聚焦于自己的使用场景。2019年腾讯开始自研芯片,2021年首次披露了三款自研芯片,包括AI推理芯片紫霄、视频转码芯片沧海和智能网卡芯片玄灵。 其中,“沧海”芯片在2023年已经量产并大规模应用。目前,“沧海V1”已经在腾讯云以及腾讯自有场景中规模部署超10万片,覆盖直播和点播、4K超高清高帧率转码、云游戏实时编码、多媒体处理等核心场景。 “通用算力芯片面对英伟达、AMD的成熟生态,投入巨大且替代难度极高;视频转码芯片场景封闭、软件栈可控,更容易实现算法与硬件协同优化,腾讯的做法是典型的扬长避短。”柏文喜直言,腾讯此举也恰好填补了国内云端芯片在“多媒体处理”细分赛道的空白。 王树一则指出:“虽然都是互联网大厂,但各自优势领域不同。腾讯在音视频领域的市占率极高,从这里入手自研硬件,进退都有很好的基础。” 据介绍,腾讯“沧海”系列芯片深度融合软件算法与硬件架构,实现了全链路软硬件协同优化,从而实现压缩效率的最大化。 “简言之,腾讯‘沧海V2’的技术逻辑,从一开始就放弃了‘堆硬件’的路线。”孙依妮评价道,“它不靠算力堆砌提升性能,而是像电网调度电力一样,用算法动态分配算力,核心差异就是腾讯更重软件算法,而非硬件参数。” 也就是说,当画面复杂时,“沧海V2”会自动提升编码质量,画面单调时主动压缩。同时,芯片内置了GPU核心,实现了渲染与编码在同一芯片上协同工作,数据无须来回拷贝,直接解决了云游戏场景中长期存在的延迟痛点。 从行业竞争程度来看,在通用芯片领域,国产厂商与海外巨头的差距仍以年为单位计算;但在视频领域,国内外差距并不大。王树一指出:“无论是端侧还是云侧的视频处理芯片,本土都有非常优秀的产品,国际公司虽然可能有工艺优势,但本土公司在应用生态上极其丰富,通过深度优化应用来倒推芯片设计,反而有一定的优势。” 造芯能否撑起股价? 进入2026年之后,全球芯片板块在AI需求与供给紧张的叙事下走出一波历史性行情,但同一段时间里,腾讯控股的股价却较年初高位回落。一边是AI芯片公司估值动辄百倍市销率,一边是腾讯市盈率降至15倍以下,被贴上“传统互联网”标签。 “沧海V2”的横空出世,能否打破腾讯的市值困境? “芯片自研高投入、长周期,V2量产不会直接贡献营收,对股价只有情绪面提振;资本市场对腾讯的核心估值逻辑,依然是微信生态、游戏、AI落地,芯片只是基础设施,不是独立估值引擎。”柏文喜说道。 在王树一看来:“单靠一款芯片提升估值很难,只有自研大规模铺开,成本与效用真正转化为财务收益,才能支撑长期估值。” 也就是说,市场不缺 “科技故事”,缺的是 “利润兑现”。 如果“沧海”系列能持续降低视频业务成本并对外输出,它将改善市场对腾讯“创新业务盈利能力”的预期,但这是一个漫长的过程。 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世界股市泡沫目前太大了,人工智能量化交易还在激烈博弈,等待有远见的机构将智能模式主动切换为人工手动交易模式,打破AI博弈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/553551291586232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":553551099590256,"gmtCreate":1776178901947,"gmtModify":1776178904202,"author":{"id":"3518605666625514","authorId":"3518605666625514","name":"Trendy_3284","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46e746d0a5123dbe2672bb15909e299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518605666625514","idStr":"3518605666625514"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 世界股市泡沫目前太大了,人工智能量化交易还在激烈博弈,等待有远见的机构将智能模式主动切换为人工手动交易模式,打破AI博弈","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 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</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> U-C 一山不容二虎","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> U-C 一山不容二虎","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$ U-C 一山不容二虎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/424484205113616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360398446534744,"gmtCreate":1729006202975,"gmtModify":1729006206097,"author":{"id":"3518605666625514","authorId":"3518605666625514","name":"Trendy_3284","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46e746d0a5123dbe2672bb15909e299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518605666625514","idStr":"3518605666625514"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ETF基金叠加股票,期货,期权,套利量化对冲交易大模型笼罩在A股之上,只要有波动和成交量就能稳稳的割韭菜,单枪匹马游兵散勇的散户在A股持续稳定的赚钱是不可能的事,没有对冲工具和T+0制度散户只要参与量化博弈交易结果就一个字“亏”或者“死”。交了好多好多学费才明白这个道理,各路主力[包括外资,机构,国家队]是千方百计的吸引散户进场参与量化博弈啊!","listText":"ETF基金叠加股票,期货,期权,套利量化对冲交易大模型笼罩在A股之上,只要有波动和成交量就能稳稳的割韭菜,单枪匹马游兵散勇的散户在A股持续稳定的赚钱是不可能的事,没有对冲工具和T+0制度散户只要参与量化博弈交易结果就一个字“亏”或者“死”。交了好多好多学费才明白这个道理,各路主力[包括外资,机构,国家队]是千方百计的吸引散户进场参与量化博弈啊!","text":"ETF基金叠加股票,期货,期权,套利量化对冲交易大模型笼罩在A股之上,只要有波动和成交量就能稳稳的割韭菜,单枪匹马游兵散勇的散户在A股持续稳定的赚钱是不可能的事,没有对冲工具和T+0制度散户只要参与量化博弈交易结果就一个字“亏”或者“死”。交了好多好多学费才明白这个道理,各路主力[包括外资,机构,国家队]是千方百计的吸引散户进场参与量化博弈啊!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360398446534744","repostId":"1118110204","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4722,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":299126801469680,"gmtCreate":1714054324714,"gmtModify":1714054326875,"author":{"id":"3518605666625514","authorId":"3518605666625514","name":"Trendy_3284","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46e746d0a5123dbe2672bb15909e299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518605666625514","idStr":"3518605666625514"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"经济基本面没有全面支撑,以及没有增量资金的市场环境,量化交易为主流交易的市场,震荡博弈模式始终为主流模式!","listText":"经济基本面没有全面支撑,以及没有增量资金的市场环境,量化交易为主流交易的市场,震荡博弈模式始终为主流模式!","text":"经济基本面没有全面支撑,以及没有增量资金的市场环境,量化交易为主流交易的市场,震荡博弈模式始终为主流模式!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299126801469680","repostId":"2429510453","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2429510453","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"FT中文网是英国《金融时报》集团旗下唯一的中文商业财经网站,旨在为中国商业菁英和决策者们提供每日不可或缺的商业财经新闻、深度分析以及评论。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"FT中文网","id":"1099700184","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32598658bfc54c7392ad9b927dd952e5"},"pubTimestamp":1713951000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2429510453?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-24 17:30","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"港股为何“跑赢”美股?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2429510453","media":"FT中文网","summary":"从低点计算,恒生指数却上升接近8%,同期纳斯达克指数涨幅仅为1%。从宏观角度而言,港股的定价由三个部分组成,首先是全球宏观定价,这其中最为关键的因素是美债利率;第二部分则是地缘政治因素;第三部分则是中国经济的表现。在联系汇率制度下,港币与美元挂钩,利率也应该十分接近。对于港股而言,尽管此前曾经多次出现对全球地缘政治事件的高度敏感,但今年以来,港股却几乎对中东事件保持“脱敏”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>从低点计算,恒生指数却上升接近8%,同期纳斯达克指数涨幅仅为1%。很多投资人会关心,恒指为什么会在过去的三月中表现更强?能否持续?</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">文丨<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">国泰君安国际</a>首席经济学家 周浩<br/><br/>市场一直有一个直觉,认为美股今年的表现强于港股。的确,单从表观数据来看,年初至今,以纳斯达克指数为例,其上涨的幅度接近3%;同期恒生指数则下跌了超过3%。就这一数据而言,的确美股的表现要强于港股。然而,如果从今年年初恒生指数的低点算起(时点大约为1月20号左右),恒生指数却上升接近8%,同期纳斯达克指数的涨幅仅为1%。相信很多投资人会关心,恒指为什么会在过去的三月中表现更强?<br/><br/>从宏观角度而言,港股的定价由三个部分组成,首先是全球宏观定价,这其中最为关键的因素是美债利率;第二部分则是地缘政治因素;第三部分则是中国经济的表现。<br/><br/>从美元利率而言,市场在不断调整美联储降息的时点和幅度。近期美股的调整也与这一因素有高度的相关性,但对于港股而言,却似乎没有受到太多的冲击,从根本上而言,这与港币的利率相对疲软有更为直接的关系。在联系汇率制度下,港币与美元挂钩,利率也应该十分接近。但事实上,由于对于港币资金的需求相对局限,港币的利率与美元经常会出现一定的“脱钩”。从美元兑港币的1年掉期点数来看,港币兑美元一直处于贴水状态,换言之,港币的实际利率一直低于美元。而近期港币兑美元的贴水幅度出现了进一步扩大,这意味着尽管美元利率伴随着降息预期推迟而上升,但港币的利率却没有跟上。从这个角度而言,利率对于港股投资的实际影响可能比想象中要小。<br/><br/>影响港股的第二个因素则是地缘政治。今年以来,全球地缘政治冲突不断,但主要影响的区域是中东。对于港股而言,尽管此前曾经多次出现对全球地缘政治事件的高度敏感,但今年以来,港股却几乎对中东事件保持“脱敏”。尽管未来全球地缘冲突的风险仍然较高,但似乎对于不同市场的影响也不能一概而论。我们也只能判断说,到目前为止,港股受到地缘政治风险的影响较小。<br/><br/>影响港股的另一个关键因素,则是中国经济的表现。香港的上市公司中,中资企业的市值占比超过7成,交易量占比则超过8成。从这个角度来说,在分子端(即盈利)影响最大的因素,是中资企业的表现,换言之就是中国经济的表现。今年以来,中国经济的表现整体仍属于稳定,尤其是年初以来PMI和贸易数据总体好于预期,在一定程度上有利于稳定投资者的信心。而从短期的经济预期来看,市场对于中国经济上半年的经济表现仍然保持一定程度的信心,这对于市场来说也是相对有利的因素。<br/><br/>在过去的一段时间中,高股息是港股的投资主线,今年以来表现最好的板块是电讯、能源和金融,这在一定程度上表明高股息持续成为市场的焦点。与此同时,近年来南下资金流入港股的趋势也十分显著,由于港股估值更有优势,这也意味着股息率会相对更高。<br/><br/>4月19日,为进一步拓展优化沪深港通机制、助力香港巩固提升国际金融中心地位,共同促进两地资本市场协同发展,中国证监会发布5项资本市场对港合作措施。具体内容包括:1、放宽沪深港通下股票ETF合资格产品范围;2、将REITs纳入沪深港通;3、支持人民币股票交易柜台纳入港股通;4、优化基金互认安排;5、支持内地行业龙头企业赴香港上市。这些政策的出台,也意味着对于港股的政策支持力度在逐步加大,未来对于港股而言,吸引更多内地资金和机构投资者,将是其发展的重要基石。<br/><br/>从宏观策略的角度而言,恒生指数在过去三个月跑赢纳指,是一个值得关注的现象。一方面,市场需要去厘清主导恒指运行的主要动力和因素,而这些因素的出现在一定程度上代表了市场新的趋势;另一方面,港股和美股之间似乎开始出现一定的“负相关性”,对于市场而言,这也可以形成一个非常重要的对冲交易策略。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股为何“跑赢”美股?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1099700184\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/32598658bfc54c7392ad9b927dd952e5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">FT中文网 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-04-24 17:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>从低点计算,恒生指数却上升接近8%,同期纳斯达克指数涨幅仅为1%。很多投资人会关心,恒指为什么会在过去的三月中表现更强?能否持续?</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">文丨<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">国泰君安国际</a>首席经济学家 周浩<br/><br/>市场一直有一个直觉,认为美股今年的表现强于港股。的确,单从表观数据来看,年初至今,以纳斯达克指数为例,其上涨的幅度接近3%;同期恒生指数则下跌了超过3%。就这一数据而言,的确美股的表现要强于港股。然而,如果从今年年初恒生指数的低点算起(时点大约为1月20号左右),恒生指数却上升接近8%,同期纳斯达克指数的涨幅仅为1%。相信很多投资人会关心,恒指为什么会在过去的三月中表现更强?<br/><br/>从宏观角度而言,港股的定价由三个部分组成,首先是全球宏观定价,这其中最为关键的因素是美债利率;第二部分则是地缘政治因素;第三部分则是中国经济的表现。<br/><br/>从美元利率而言,市场在不断调整美联储降息的时点和幅度。近期美股的调整也与这一因素有高度的相关性,但对于港股而言,却似乎没有受到太多的冲击,从根本上而言,这与港币的利率相对疲软有更为直接的关系。在联系汇率制度下,港币与美元挂钩,利率也应该十分接近。但事实上,由于对于港币资金的需求相对局限,港币的利率与美元经常会出现一定的“脱钩”。从美元兑港币的1年掉期点数来看,港币兑美元一直处于贴水状态,换言之,港币的实际利率一直低于美元。而近期港币兑美元的贴水幅度出现了进一步扩大,这意味着尽管美元利率伴随着降息预期推迟而上升,但港币的利率却没有跟上。从这个角度而言,利率对于港股投资的实际影响可能比想象中要小。<br/><br/>影响港股的第二个因素则是地缘政治。今年以来,全球地缘政治冲突不断,但主要影响的区域是中东。对于港股而言,尽管此前曾经多次出现对全球地缘政治事件的高度敏感,但今年以来,港股却几乎对中东事件保持“脱敏”。尽管未来全球地缘冲突的风险仍然较高,但似乎对于不同市场的影响也不能一概而论。我们也只能判断说,到目前为止,港股受到地缘政治风险的影响较小。<br/><br/>影响港股的另一个关键因素,则是中国经济的表现。香港的上市公司中,中资企业的市值占比超过7成,交易量占比则超过8成。从这个角度来说,在分子端(即盈利)影响最大的因素,是中资企业的表现,换言之就是中国经济的表现。今年以来,中国经济的表现整体仍属于稳定,尤其是年初以来PMI和贸易数据总体好于预期,在一定程度上有利于稳定投资者的信心。而从短期的经济预期来看,市场对于中国经济上半年的经济表现仍然保持一定程度的信心,这对于市场来说也是相对有利的因素。<br/><br/>在过去的一段时间中,高股息是港股的投资主线,今年以来表现最好的板块是电讯、能源和金融,这在一定程度上表明高股息持续成为市场的焦点。与此同时,近年来南下资金流入港股的趋势也十分显著,由于港股估值更有优势,这也意味着股息率会相对更高。<br/><br/>4月19日,为进一步拓展优化沪深港通机制、助力香港巩固提升国际金融中心地位,共同促进两地资本市场协同发展,中国证监会发布5项资本市场对港合作措施。具体内容包括:1、放宽沪深港通下股票ETF合资格产品范围;2、将REITs纳入沪深港通;3、支持人民币股票交易柜台纳入港股通;4、优化基金互认安排;5、支持内地行业龙头企业赴香港上市。这些政策的出台,也意味着对于港股的政策支持力度在逐步加大,未来对于港股而言,吸引更多内地资金和机构投资者,将是其发展的重要基石。<br/><br/>从宏观策略的角度而言,恒生指数在过去三个月跑赢纳指,是一个值得关注的现象。一方面,市场需要去厘清主导恒指运行的主要动力和因素,而这些因素的出现在一定程度上代表了市场新的趋势;另一方面,港股和美股之间似乎开始出现一定的“负相关性”,对于市场而言,这也可以形成一个非常重要的对冲交易策略。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f192f85854e460497adefc59f2454ab","relate_stocks":{"YINN":"三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion","BK4588":"碎股","YANG":"三倍做空富时中国ETF-Direxion","07226":"南方两倍做多恒科","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NjIzOTM0MA==&mid=2650506243&idx=2&sn=68e272a996b1688f5d76c3bf9d416984&chksm=bf632d09879455fe8849c95c38652b9ad22a9288ec73a03805e7b382f642d88f44a7ef27152e&scene=0#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2429510453","content_text":"从低点计算,恒生指数却上升接近8%,同期纳斯达克指数涨幅仅为1%。很多投资人会关心,恒指为什么会在过去的三月中表现更强?能否持续?文丨国泰君安国际首席经济学家 周浩市场一直有一个直觉,认为美股今年的表现强于港股。的确,单从表观数据来看,年初至今,以纳斯达克指数为例,其上涨的幅度接近3%;同期恒生指数则下跌了超过3%。就这一数据而言,的确美股的表现要强于港股。然而,如果从今年年初恒生指数的低点算起(时点大约为1月20号左右),恒生指数却上升接近8%,同期纳斯达克指数的涨幅仅为1%。相信很多投资人会关心,恒指为什么会在过去的三月中表现更强?从宏观角度而言,港股的定价由三个部分组成,首先是全球宏观定价,这其中最为关键的因素是美债利率;第二部分则是地缘政治因素;第三部分则是中国经济的表现。从美元利率而言,市场在不断调整美联储降息的时点和幅度。近期美股的调整也与这一因素有高度的相关性,但对于港股而言,却似乎没有受到太多的冲击,从根本上而言,这与港币的利率相对疲软有更为直接的关系。在联系汇率制度下,港币与美元挂钩,利率也应该十分接近。但事实上,由于对于港币资金的需求相对局限,港币的利率与美元经常会出现一定的“脱钩”。从美元兑港币的1年掉期点数来看,港币兑美元一直处于贴水状态,换言之,港币的实际利率一直低于美元。而近期港币兑美元的贴水幅度出现了进一步扩大,这意味着尽管美元利率伴随着降息预期推迟而上升,但港币的利率却没有跟上。从这个角度而言,利率对于港股投资的实际影响可能比想象中要小。影响港股的第二个因素则是地缘政治。今年以来,全球地缘政治冲突不断,但主要影响的区域是中东。对于港股而言,尽管此前曾经多次出现对全球地缘政治事件的高度敏感,但今年以来,港股却几乎对中东事件保持“脱敏”。尽管未来全球地缘冲突的风险仍然较高,但似乎对于不同市场的影响也不能一概而论。我们也只能判断说,到目前为止,港股受到地缘政治风险的影响较小。影响港股的另一个关键因素,则是中国经济的表现。香港的上市公司中,中资企业的市值占比超过7成,交易量占比则超过8成。从这个角度来说,在分子端(即盈利)影响最大的因素,是中资企业的表现,换言之就是中国经济的表现。今年以来,中国经济的表现整体仍属于稳定,尤其是年初以来PMI和贸易数据总体好于预期,在一定程度上有利于稳定投资者的信心。而从短期的经济预期来看,市场对于中国经济上半年的经济表现仍然保持一定程度的信心,这对于市场来说也是相对有利的因素。在过去的一段时间中,高股息是港股的投资主线,今年以来表现最好的板块是电讯、能源和金融,这在一定程度上表明高股息持续成为市场的焦点。与此同时,近年来南下资金流入港股的趋势也十分显著,由于港股估值更有优势,这也意味着股息率会相对更高。4月19日,为进一步拓展优化沪深港通机制、助力香港巩固提升国际金融中心地位,共同促进两地资本市场协同发展,中国证监会发布5项资本市场对港合作措施。具体内容包括:1、放宽沪深港通下股票ETF合资格产品范围;2、将REITs纳入沪深港通;3、支持人民币股票交易柜台纳入港股通;4、优化基金互认安排;5、支持内地行业龙头企业赴香港上市。这些政策的出台,也意味着对于港股的政策支持力度在逐步加大,未来对于港股而言,吸引更多内地资金和机构投资者,将是其发展的重要基石。从宏观策略的角度而言,恒生指数在过去三个月跑赢纳指,是一个值得关注的现象。一方面,市场需要去厘清主导恒指运行的主要动力和因素,而这些因素的出现在一定程度上代表了市场新的趋势;另一方面,港股和美股之间似乎开始出现一定的“负相关性”,对于市场而言,这也可以形成一个非常重要的对冲交易策略。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"07226":1,"YINN":1,"YANG":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":299124980338928,"gmtCreate":1714053880102,"gmtModify":1714054702079,"author":{"id":"3518605666625514","authorId":"3518605666625514","name":"Trendy_3284","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46e746d0a5123dbe2672bb15909e299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518605666625514","idStr":"3518605666625514"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>进入震荡模式","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>进入震荡模式","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 进入震荡模式","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299124980338928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3608,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":295293334094144,"gmtCreate":1713106189604,"gmtModify":1713106685380,"author":{"id":"3518605666625514","authorId":"3518605666625514","name":"Trendy_3284","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46e746d0a5123dbe2672bb15909e299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518605666625514","idStr":"3518605666625514"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"思考一个问题就能找到各国股市中的大白马🐴当然也包括美股。这个问题是:国家的本质是什么? 所以大A以后持续上涨的大白马只能是那些“收过路费的公司”比如xx电,xx油,xx路,xx行,xx信,xx神☞","listText":"思考一个问题就能找到各国股市中的大白马🐴当然也包括美股。这个问题是:国家的本质是什么? 所以大A以后持续上涨的大白马只能是那些“收过路费的公司”比如xx电,xx油,xx路,xx行,xx信,xx神☞","text":"思考一个问题就能找到各国股市中的大白马🐴当然也包括美股。这个问题是:国家的本质是什么? 所以大A以后持续上涨的大白马只能是那些“收过路费的公司”比如xx电,xx油,xx路,xx行,xx信,xx神☞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/295293334094144","repostId":"1192636600","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":294194569539896,"gmtCreate":1712847871478,"gmtModify":1712847873330,"author":{"id":"3518605666625514","authorId":"3518605666625514","name":"Trendy_3284","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46e746d0a5123dbe2672bb15909e299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518605666625514","idStr":"3518605666625514"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"写这篇文章收了多少钱啊!大A太黑骗子太多了","listText":"写这篇文章收了多少钱啊!大A太黑骗子太多了","text":"写这篇文章收了多少钱啊!大A太黑骗子太多了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/294194569539896","repostId":"1177715002","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177715002","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1712844306,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177715002?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-11 22:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Kimi“奇袭”百度,背后闪现阿里身影","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177715002","media":"腾讯深网","summary":"混战刚刚开始,应用场景和商业化落地才是关键。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者:安然</p><p><strong>Kimi走红,最大的压力将给到百度。因为Kimi的背后,已站着阿里的身影。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就在国内大模型竞争处于焦灼状态时,创业公司月之暗面却靠着kimi智能助手的“200万字长文本”率先出圈,甚至还催生了“Kimi概念股”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Kimi的优势仅领先一个星期。随着阿里通义千问、百度文心一言等宣布免费开放200万—500万甚至1000万字的长文本能力后,kimi长文本推理能力瞬间被赶超,其“Kimi概念股”的热度也开始消散。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但短期看,已给用户普及了“长文本推理能力”的kimi是这波流量的赢家。据similarweb数据显示,Kimi Chat的访问量已从去年十月的15.6万,增长至2024年2月的279万。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而3月19日至3月25日,在月之暗面宣布把长文本能力从20万字提升至200万字那一周,Kimi 的访问量达到了394万次,略高于文心一言的338万次,一度跃升为国内网页端周度访问量最高的AI应用。据similarweb数据显示,整个3月kimi的访问量达到1218.6万次。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Kimi走红的背后,离不开当下阿里激进改革、转型AI的支持。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有投资人透露,月之暗面新一轮融资完成后,阿里将成为其持股40%的单一大股东。不过,为了保证创始人团队保有绝对的决策权和控制权,做了AB股处理,拥有足够的投票权。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“阿里给了比较苛刻的投资条款,但月之暗面当时要想继续留在牌桌上,只能有所妥协。本质上,急需新故事的阿里,和急需资金弹药的月暗各取所需,都得付出部分代价。”有投资人对《AI光年》解释。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>消息称,最新10亿美金融资中有8亿美金来自阿里,部分资金以阿里提供的算力折算。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>悄然间,阿里在AI赛道已有多个棋子的布局。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">4月10日早间,马云在阿里内网发表题为《致改革 致创新》的帖子,肯定阿里变革一年成效。针对行业未来,马云判断,“三、五年的时间跨度对于互联网领域而言,犹如一个世纪之久,足以发生翻天覆地的变化,AI时代刚刚到来,一切才刚开始,我们正当其时。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>而对于起了大早的百度和文心一言而言,Kimi及阿里将成为当下最重要的竞争对手。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一位行业人士对《AI光年》透露,百度当下最重要的是力出一孔。“目前文心一言的大模型研发、垂直To B应用、To C产品分别在三个不同的事业群,负责人也各不相同。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">比如,负责文心一言自然语言处理底层技术的主力团队是副总裁吴甜,直接向CTO王海峰汇报,而百度智能云的负责人是副总裁朱勇直接向百度智能云事业群总裁沈抖汇报。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>知情人士对《AI光年》透露,为了区别文心一言大模型在技术、To C产品、To B市场的定位,百度内部高管正讨论,是否需要为文心一言更换新的品牌标识。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当然,与百度相比,目前kimi在资金、算力和商业化落地方面依然相对弱势。</p><h2 id=\"id_3220535169\" style=\"text-align: start;\">“抄近道”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">长期看,回归大模型根本,长文本推理能力仅是通往AGI(通用人工智能)的必要技能之一。在实现AGI的漫长征程中,长文本并非唯一标准,多模态学习、神经网络架构创新、应用落地与生态建设、伦理与道德框架构建等各个维度都不可或缺。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然kimi只做了几天的“顶流”,但这也不得不让行业思考,为何率先普及大模型“长文本推理能力”的会是一家创业公司,而非有资本、有算力、有人才、有应用场景的大厂?</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/558276e79e5de02da339197dc67e0a72\" tg-width=\"654\" tg-height=\"409\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">kimi能抢占用户“长文本”的心智并非偶然。在去年多数大模型在“卷参数、卷开闭源、卷榜单”忙的不亦乐乎时,2023年3月才成立的月之暗面就以“抄近道”的形式在“百模大战”中脱颖而出。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>多位投资人对《AI光年》总结月之暗面能从大厂和众多创业公司中“冒尖”的原因,主要为以下两点:</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>一是月之暗面创办之初就从细分领域找到一个刚需的应用场景,并抢占了长文本推理能力的用户认知。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“kimi现在之所以能引爆长文本推理能力是因为他们很早就开始做这件事情了。去年我见杨植麟(月之暗面创始人)时,他就非常明确要做好大模型长文本这件事儿了。他是行业中第一个讲‘长文本’的人,大约两周后,OpenAI CEO奥特曼也在某个采访中才提到这件事。”月之暗面早期投资人对《AI光年》解释。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">杨植麟曾在此前的采访中把长文本比做“登月的第一步”,是新的计算机内存。用通俗的话说,大模型若要理解复杂的长文本情境,需要足够大的“上下文窗口”或者“记忆空间”来容纳并处理这些关联信息,犹如计算机和手机的内存。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">去年10月,月之暗面推出Kimi智能助手时,就在介绍中给自己贴上了“超大内存”的标签。<strong>贴标签仅是第一步,新技术和新范式最好催化剂永远是用户需求。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从用户的角度看,20万—200万字的无损上下文能力,可以帮助用户快速解锁翻译、专业学术论文、法律文书、金融报告等专业使用场景,这对“小白”用户更是刚需。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今年3月18日,Kimi智能助手无损上下文扩容到200 万字并引发了百度、阿里等大厂的跟进,又进一步加强了用户对kimi“长文本推理能力”的认知。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于阿里、百度等大厂能快速将长文档处理的文字范围翻倍,天使投资人郭涛对《深网》解释,“长文本处理是自然语言处理的一个分支,各大模型在底层技术上的差别不大,关键看模型的优化、训练策略的调整及数据质量等。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>二是杨植麟等创始团队懂得取舍,提前储备了足够的“资金”弹药。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“算力是大模型进化的门槛”已经成为行业共识。有资料显示,GPT-3.5在微软Azure AI超算基础设施(由V100GPU组成的高带宽集群)上进行训练,总算力消耗约 3640PF-days(即每秒一千万亿次计算,运行3640天)。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">业内一种公认说法是,做好AI大模型的算力门槛是1万枚英伟达A100芯片。这就决定了,大模型的竞争不仅是科技竞争,也是资金实力的较量。对于创业公司来说,要先于对手融到更多的钱,招聘更优秀的人。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>不过,一位月之暗面早期投资人对《深网》表示:“资本和算力对于想做AGI的公司来说,是一个必要非充分条件,是公司在不同阶段承接用户需求的基础,但大模型竞争的核心还是公司的技术、产品。技术要保证产品足够好用、有价值,然后才是资金上的保障。”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于“kimi如何在5个月里用相同成本和设备把模型响应速度提升3倍”的问题,该投资人表示,“技术细节不方便透露。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1772d743f924e7dd8f66aa3b3d95717f\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"375\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3533871542\" style=\"text-align: start;\">“混战刚刚开始”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">无论如何,kimi的威胁已不容小觑。最先在中国推出类似ChatGPT聊天机器人软件文心一言的百度,要避免“起了大早,赶了个晚集”的尴尬。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">用户量仅是基础,回归商业本身,检验一个模式能否长久,关键要看是否有用户及客户愿意为商业化落地买单。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“与百度等大厂相比,目前kimi在资金、算力资源、应用场景、商业化落地方面还都存在短板。”天使投资人郭涛对《AI光年》分析。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">月之暗面的算力短板在kimi“出圈”时就已显露。公开资料显示,3月21日,Kimi Chat曾因流量激增遭遇了短暂的服务中断。为此,月之暗面通过算法优化和算力扩容以保证Kimi Chat服务的稳定性和响应速度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>据《AI光年》获悉,前期火山引擎和阿里云是kimi算力的主要提供方,完成今年A轮融资后,Kimi在未来的推理加速或主要依赖阿里云。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在商业化落地方面,百度选择“两条腿走路”。在C端,文心一言4.0版正针对个人用户收费。在B端,百度采用大模型+云服务的方式,通过模型即服务(MAAS)等方式在B端收费。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“不过,文心一言4.0版在C端针对个人用户收费,一定程度上不利于用户的积累和数据的迭代,制约其大模型的发展。”有投资人分析。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在C端商业化落地方面,Kimi Chat目前处于免费的状态。有投资人透露,Kimi用户的获客成本达到12元-13元,近一个月来日均下载量为17805,每天的获客成本至少20万元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在C端免费的情况下,Kimi 要向B端探索商业化落地。公开资料显示,掌阅科技、华策影视等公司已和月之暗面在影视剧本创作、读者互动体验、内容个性化推荐等方面展开深度合作。对此,二者都没有正面回应,表示一切以公司公开信息为准。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“月之暗面在商业化落地处于一个早期探索的阶段。无论是算力资源、还是应用场景和商业化,百度等大厂比月之暗面等创业公司更有优势。”有投资人对《AI光年》透露。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在该投资人看来,在Meta开源Llama 2、埃隆.马斯克开源Grok的情况下,仅北京、上海发布的大模型产品就超过100多个,国内大模型的混战才刚刚开始。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>对此,一位月之暗面早期投资人对《AI光年》表示,“独立创业公司在大模型领域有两大优势,人才密度和组织效率。在此基础上,只要保证算力资源不短缺,创业公司更有机会。”</strong></p></body></html>","source":"txsw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Kimi“奇袭”百度,背后闪现阿里身影</title>\n<style 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href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIwMTY1NDg4Nw==&mid=2247518170&idx=1&sn=c5fa651677988ae5c3a19616c987b224&chksm=97c48b3dd601e39af787640d92603287a4784a9fb80a0b6663f7106ed0d1b09733723d8cb8cd&scene=0&xtrack=1><strong>腾讯深网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者:安然Kimi走红,最大的压力将给到百度。因为Kimi的背后,已站着阿里的身影。就在国内大模型竞争处于焦灼状态时,创业公司月之暗面却靠着kimi智能助手的“200万字长文本”率先出圈,甚至还催生了“Kimi概念股”。Kimi的优势仅领先一个星期。随着阿里通义千问、百度文心一言等宣布免费开放200万—500万甚至1000万字的长文本能力后,kimi长文本推理能力瞬间被赶超,其“Kimi概念股”的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIwMTY1NDg4Nw==&mid=2247518170&idx=1&sn=c5fa651677988ae5c3a19616c987b224&chksm=97c48b3dd601e39af787640d92603287a4784a9fb80a0b6663f7106ed0d1b09733723d8cb8cd&scene=0&xtrack=1\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10d1231f9d235575ef65b327a3729576","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIwMTY1NDg4Nw==&mid=2247518170&idx=1&sn=c5fa651677988ae5c3a19616c987b224&chksm=97c48b3dd601e39af787640d92603287a4784a9fb80a0b6663f7106ed0d1b09733723d8cb8cd&scene=0&xtrack=1","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177715002","content_text":"作者:安然Kimi走红,最大的压力将给到百度。因为Kimi的背后,已站着阿里的身影。就在国内大模型竞争处于焦灼状态时,创业公司月之暗面却靠着kimi智能助手的“200万字长文本”率先出圈,甚至还催生了“Kimi概念股”。Kimi的优势仅领先一个星期。随着阿里通义千问、百度文心一言等宣布免费开放200万—500万甚至1000万字的长文本能力后,kimi长文本推理能力瞬间被赶超,其“Kimi概念股”的热度也开始消散。但短期看,已给用户普及了“长文本推理能力”的kimi是这波流量的赢家。据similarweb数据显示,Kimi Chat的访问量已从去年十月的15.6万,增长至2024年2月的279万。而3月19日至3月25日,在月之暗面宣布把长文本能力从20万字提升至200万字那一周,Kimi 的访问量达到了394万次,略高于文心一言的338万次,一度跃升为国内网页端周度访问量最高的AI应用。据similarweb数据显示,整个3月kimi的访问量达到1218.6万次。Kimi走红的背后,离不开当下阿里激进改革、转型AI的支持。有投资人透露,月之暗面新一轮融资完成后,阿里将成为其持股40%的单一大股东。不过,为了保证创始人团队保有绝对的决策权和控制权,做了AB股处理,拥有足够的投票权。“阿里给了比较苛刻的投资条款,但月之暗面当时要想继续留在牌桌上,只能有所妥协。本质上,急需新故事的阿里,和急需资金弹药的月暗各取所需,都得付出部分代价。”有投资人对《AI光年》解释。消息称,最新10亿美金融资中有8亿美金来自阿里,部分资金以阿里提供的算力折算。悄然间,阿里在AI赛道已有多个棋子的布局。4月10日早间,马云在阿里内网发表题为《致改革 致创新》的帖子,肯定阿里变革一年成效。针对行业未来,马云判断,“三、五年的时间跨度对于互联网领域而言,犹如一个世纪之久,足以发生翻天覆地的变化,AI时代刚刚到来,一切才刚开始,我们正当其时。”而对于起了大早的百度和文心一言而言,Kimi及阿里将成为当下最重要的竞争对手。一位行业人士对《AI光年》透露,百度当下最重要的是力出一孔。“目前文心一言的大模型研发、垂直To B应用、To C产品分别在三个不同的事业群,负责人也各不相同。”比如,负责文心一言自然语言处理底层技术的主力团队是副总裁吴甜,直接向CTO王海峰汇报,而百度智能云的负责人是副总裁朱勇直接向百度智能云事业群总裁沈抖汇报。知情人士对《AI光年》透露,为了区别文心一言大模型在技术、To C产品、To B市场的定位,百度内部高管正讨论,是否需要为文心一言更换新的品牌标识。当然,与百度相比,目前kimi在资金、算力和商业化落地方面依然相对弱势。“抄近道”长期看,回归大模型根本,长文本推理能力仅是通往AGI(通用人工智能)的必要技能之一。在实现AGI的漫长征程中,长文本并非唯一标准,多模态学习、神经网络架构创新、应用落地与生态建设、伦理与道德框架构建等各个维度都不可或缺。虽然kimi只做了几天的“顶流”,但这也不得不让行业思考,为何率先普及大模型“长文本推理能力”的会是一家创业公司,而非有资本、有算力、有人才、有应用场景的大厂?kimi能抢占用户“长文本”的心智并非偶然。在去年多数大模型在“卷参数、卷开闭源、卷榜单”忙的不亦乐乎时,2023年3月才成立的月之暗面就以“抄近道”的形式在“百模大战”中脱颖而出。多位投资人对《AI光年》总结月之暗面能从大厂和众多创业公司中“冒尖”的原因,主要为以下两点:一是月之暗面创办之初就从细分领域找到一个刚需的应用场景,并抢占了长文本推理能力的用户认知。“kimi现在之所以能引爆长文本推理能力是因为他们很早就开始做这件事情了。去年我见杨植麟(月之暗面创始人)时,他就非常明确要做好大模型长文本这件事儿了。他是行业中第一个讲‘长文本’的人,大约两周后,OpenAI CEO奥特曼也在某个采访中才提到这件事。”月之暗面早期投资人对《AI光年》解释。杨植麟曾在此前的采访中把长文本比做“登月的第一步”,是新的计算机内存。用通俗的话说,大模型若要理解复杂的长文本情境,需要足够大的“上下文窗口”或者“记忆空间”来容纳并处理这些关联信息,犹如计算机和手机的内存。去年10月,月之暗面推出Kimi智能助手时,就在介绍中给自己贴上了“超大内存”的标签。贴标签仅是第一步,新技术和新范式最好催化剂永远是用户需求。从用户的角度看,20万—200万字的无损上下文能力,可以帮助用户快速解锁翻译、专业学术论文、法律文书、金融报告等专业使用场景,这对“小白”用户更是刚需。今年3月18日,Kimi智能助手无损上下文扩容到200 万字并引发了百度、阿里等大厂的跟进,又进一步加强了用户对kimi“长文本推理能力”的认知。对于阿里、百度等大厂能快速将长文档处理的文字范围翻倍,天使投资人郭涛对《深网》解释,“长文本处理是自然语言处理的一个分支,各大模型在底层技术上的差别不大,关键看模型的优化、训练策略的调整及数据质量等。”二是杨植麟等创始团队懂得取舍,提前储备了足够的“资金”弹药。“算力是大模型进化的门槛”已经成为行业共识。有资料显示,GPT-3.5在微软Azure AI超算基础设施(由V100GPU组成的高带宽集群)上进行训练,总算力消耗约 3640PF-days(即每秒一千万亿次计算,运行3640天)。业内一种公认说法是,做好AI大模型的算力门槛是1万枚英伟达A100芯片。这就决定了,大模型的竞争不仅是科技竞争,也是资金实力的较量。对于创业公司来说,要先于对手融到更多的钱,招聘更优秀的人。不过,一位月之暗面早期投资人对《深网》表示:“资本和算力对于想做AGI的公司来说,是一个必要非充分条件,是公司在不同阶段承接用户需求的基础,但大模型竞争的核心还是公司的技术、产品。技术要保证产品足够好用、有价值,然后才是资金上的保障。”对于“kimi如何在5个月里用相同成本和设备把模型响应速度提升3倍”的问题,该投资人表示,“技术细节不方便透露。”“混战刚刚开始”无论如何,kimi的威胁已不容小觑。最先在中国推出类似ChatGPT聊天机器人软件文心一言的百度,要避免“起了大早,赶了个晚集”的尴尬。用户量仅是基础,回归商业本身,检验一个模式能否长久,关键要看是否有用户及客户愿意为商业化落地买单。“与百度等大厂相比,目前kimi在资金、算力资源、应用场景、商业化落地方面还都存在短板。”天使投资人郭涛对《AI光年》分析。月之暗面的算力短板在kimi“出圈”时就已显露。公开资料显示,3月21日,Kimi Chat曾因流量激增遭遇了短暂的服务中断。为此,月之暗面通过算法优化和算力扩容以保证Kimi Chat服务的稳定性和响应速度。据《AI光年》获悉,前期火山引擎和阿里云是kimi算力的主要提供方,完成今年A轮融资后,Kimi在未来的推理加速或主要依赖阿里云。在商业化落地方面,百度选择“两条腿走路”。在C端,文心一言4.0版正针对个人用户收费。在B端,百度采用大模型+云服务的方式,通过模型即服务(MAAS)等方式在B端收费。“不过,文心一言4.0版在C端针对个人用户收费,一定程度上不利于用户的积累和数据的迭代,制约其大模型的发展。”有投资人分析。在C端商业化落地方面,Kimi Chat目前处于免费的状态。有投资人透露,Kimi用户的获客成本达到12元-13元,近一个月来日均下载量为17805,每天的获客成本至少20万元。在C端免费的情况下,Kimi 要向B端探索商业化落地。公开资料显示,掌阅科技、华策影视等公司已和月之暗面在影视剧本创作、读者互动体验、内容个性化推荐等方面展开深度合作。对此,二者都没有正面回应,表示一切以公司公开信息为准。“月之暗面在商业化落地处于一个早期探索的阶段。无论是算力资源、还是应用场景和商业化,百度等大厂比月之暗面等创业公司更有优势。”有投资人对《AI光年》透露。在该投资人看来,在Meta开源Llama 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量化控盘依然看空,横盘震荡概率大,扩张大三角走出整理最后选择方向,(美股期指目前仍是升水,A股贴水好久了,两市场规则玩法不一样)待美股高估泡沫形成市场共识,目前市场类似碟中谍中的“智体”控盘,短线可博弈,谨慎仍然第一,A股中际旭创,新易盛,天孚通信等等成交额几乎天天霸榜已经持续了2年了,A股指数规则之下这些庄家已经控制了指数,并且与政策配合的天衣无缝。美股量化占比差不多80%了,A股少说也得60%以上了。。。。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/554600792674632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":553551291586232,"gmtCreate":1776178956708,"gmtModify":1776178958546,"author":{"id":"3518605666625514","authorId":"3518605666625514","name":"Trendy_3284","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46e746d0a5123dbe2672bb15909e299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518605666625514","authorIdStr":"3518605666625514"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 世界股市泡沫目前太大了,人工智能量化交易还在激烈博弈,等待有远见的机构将智能模式主动切换为人工手动交易模式,打破AI博弈","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 世界股市泡沫目前太大了,人工智能量化交易还在激烈博弈,等待有远见的机构将智能模式主动切换为人工手动交易模式,打破AI博弈","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 世界股市泡沫目前太大了,人工智能量化交易还在激烈博弈,等待有远见的机构将智能模式主动切换为人工手动交易模式,打破AI博弈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/553551291586232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":572109108778256,"gmtCreate":1780697403507,"gmtModify":1780703128701,"author":{"id":"3518605666625514","authorId":"3518605666625514","name":"Trendy_3284","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46e746d0a5123dbe2672bb15909e299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518605666625514","authorIdStr":"3518605666625514"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"资本是逐利的,美债收益率比99.99%的上市公司的股息都香啊","listText":"资本是逐利的,美债收益率比99.99%的上市公司的股息都香啊","text":"资本是逐利的,美债收益率比99.99%的上市公司的股息都香啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/572109108778256","repostId":"2641128978","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2641128978","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1780688648,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2641128978?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-06 03:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"腾讯“造芯”避开英伟达","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2641128978","media":"中国经营网","summary":"在2026年的资本市场上,没有什么比“芯片”二字更能撩动投资者的神经。从英伟达到AMD,芯片巨头们的股价伴随着全球对算力的饥渴一路狂飙。2026年,美股费城半导体指数年内暴涨近80%,A股半导体指数普遍涨幅超过30%。与此形成鲜明对比的是,互联网公司股价大部分在今年出现了较大回撤,即使是业绩稳健增长的腾讯,股价也从年内的高点到现在的最大跌幅已超过30%。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p><img border=\"0\" height=\"276\" src=\"https://webquoteklinepic.eastmoney.com/GetPic.aspx?nid=116.00700&imageType=k&token=28dfeb41d35cc81d84b4664d7c23c49f&at=1\" width=\"578\"/></p><p> 在2026年的资本市场上,没有什么比“芯片”二字更能撩动投资者的神经。从<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a></span><span></span>到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>,芯片巨头们的股价伴随着全球对算力的饥渴一路狂飙。</p><p> 2026年,美股费城<span>半导体</span><span></span>指数年内暴涨近80%,A股<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK1036\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">半导体</span>指数普遍涨幅超过30%。与此形成鲜明对比的是,互联网公司股价大部分在今年出现了较大回撤,即使是业绩稳健增长的腾讯,股价也从年内的高点到现在的最大跌幅已超过30%。</p><p> 在这场通用算力的狂欢中,5月底,腾讯也交出了一颗自研的芯片——“沧海V2”视频专用编解码芯片。</p><p> 腾讯宣布“沧海V2”芯片在俄罗斯莫斯科国立大学举办的MSU硬件视频编码大赛中,于30至240fps所有速度档位的SSIM、PSNR、VMAF等全部指标上斩获第一,多项指标领先第二名超过30%。腾讯方面还表示,这颗芯片计划于2026年下半年正式量产。</p><p> 此时,腾讯推出视频芯片,能否在这波算力狂欢中推动股价回升呢?</p><p> “对于腾讯这种体量的公司,单纯靠一款芯片量产来提升估值很难。”谈芯首席分析师王树一对记者说道。</p><p> <strong>腾讯的经济账</strong></p><p> 当外界普遍认为互联网大厂造芯必须追赶<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.NVDA\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">英伟达</span>时,腾讯选择了一条截然不同的小路。这条路不通向通用<span>AI芯片</span><span></span>的红海,而是深深扎进腾讯最熟悉的护城河——视频。</p><p> 想要理解腾讯为什么做视频芯片,要看懂它财报里的一个细节。在腾讯2026年第一季度的财报中,游戏与社交贡献了近半利润,而包括视频号、<span>腾讯云</span><span></span>在内的生态基础设施业务,占比已达30%。这些业务有一个共同的底层消耗是带宽。</p><p> “腾讯最不缺的是视频流量,每天上亿场直播、4K点播,还有庞大的云游戏业务。”鼎信汇金研究员孙依妮对记者算了一笔账,“腾讯通过自研芯片每节省1%的带宽成本,那也是天文数字。而且视频不卡顿了、延迟更低,也会吸引更多的付费用户。”</p><p> 这正是“沧海”系列芯片诞生的最直接驱动力。不同于<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.NVDA\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">英伟达</span>、AMD面向所有开发者销售通用芯片,腾讯的芯片首先是“自用”。</p><p> 中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文喜分析认为,腾讯选择视频专用芯片而非通用算力,是高度理性的“扬长避短”策略。“视频编解码是腾讯最核心的业务场景,包括微信视频号、腾讯视频、云游戏、直播等,这些业务需求明确、算法可控、优化空间大,属于需求驱动型造芯。”</p><p> 记者从腾讯方面获悉,第一代“沧海”芯片已在其内部及公有云场景部署超过10万片。而“沧海V2”的压缩效率较上一代进一步提升:支持H.266标准后,压缩率提升超30%。这意味着,在同样画质下,传输视频的带宽可以省下近三分之一。</p><p> 也就是说,当整个行业为获取昂贵的英伟达芯片而排队时,腾讯自研“沧海”系列芯片,其实是选择了一条能直接转化为财报利润的造芯路径。</p><p> 孙依妮补充道:“在硬件方面,我们相比英伟达、AMD等头部厂商还有一些距离,而且腾讯本身也并不是专门研发制造芯片的科技公司,作为最大的娱乐平台,通过自研的技术芯片帮助优化视频效果是最直接产生效益的方案。”</p><p> 但现实的问题在于,这种“省钱”的故事,在资本市场上的估值系数,远低于“赚钱”的故事。英伟达之所以能享受数十倍的市盈率,是因为它的芯片被全世界的云厂商、AI公司争相抢购,每一颗芯片都在创造增量收入。</p><p> <strong>差异化的造芯路径</strong></p><p> 腾讯不是第一家自研芯片的国内互联网大厂,如果把腾讯与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>、字节、<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a></span><span></span>的芯片布局放在一起,可以看到各家在芯片上的布局各有不同。</p><p> 其中,<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.BIDU\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度</a></span>昆仑芯起步最早,不过聚焦在<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK1127\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">AI芯片</span>上,包括AI训练芯片和AI推理芯片;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里</a>平头哥的芯片产品线最广,跨界了CPU、AI、IoT等;字节跳动虽然入局芯片的时间较晚,但速度迅猛,已经在研发AI推理、通用CPU、视频转码等芯片。</p><p> 腾讯的芯片研发则更聚焦于自己的使用场景。2019年腾讯开始自研芯片,2021年首次披露了三款自研芯片,包括AI推理芯片紫霄、视频转码芯片沧海和智能网卡芯片玄灵。</p><p> 其中,“沧海”芯片在2023年已经量产并大规模应用。目前,“沧海V1”已经在<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK1189\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">腾讯云</span>以及腾讯自有场景中规模部署超10万片,覆盖直播和点播、4K超高清高帧率转码、云游戏实时编码、多媒体处理等核心场景。</p><p> “通用算力芯片面对英伟达、AMD的成熟生态,投入巨大且替代难度极高;视频转码芯片场景封闭、软件栈可控,更容易实现算法与硬件协同优化,腾讯的做法是典型的扬长避短。”柏文喜直言,腾讯此举也恰好填补了国内云端芯片在“多媒体处理”细分赛道的空白。</p><p> 王树一则指出:“虽然都是互联网大厂,但各自优势领域不同。腾讯在音视频领域的市占率极高,从这里入手自研硬件,进退都有很好的基础。”</p><p> 据介绍,腾讯“沧海”系列芯片深度融合软件算法与硬件架构,实现了全链路软硬件协同优化,从而实现压缩效率的最大化。</p><p> “简言之,腾讯‘沧海V2’的技术逻辑,从一开始就放弃了‘堆硬件’的路线。”孙依妮评价道,“它不靠算力堆砌提升性能,而是像电网调度<span>电力</span><span></span>一样,用算法动态分配算力,核心差异就是腾讯更重软件算法,而非硬件参数。”</p><p> 也就是说,当画面复杂时,“沧海V2”会自动提升编码质量,画面单调时主动压缩。同时,芯片内置了GPU核心,实现了渲染与编码在同一芯片上协同工作,数据无须来回拷贝,直接解决了云游戏场景中长期存在的延迟痛点。</p><p> 从行业竞争程度来看,在通用芯片领域,国产厂商与海外巨头的差距仍以年为单位计算;但在视频领域,国内外差距并不大。王树一指出:“无论是端侧还是云侧的视频处理芯片,本土都有非常优秀的产品,国际公司虽然可能有工艺优势,但本土公司在应用生态上极其丰富,通过深度优化应用来倒推芯片设计,反而有一定的优势。”</p><p> <strong>造芯能否撑起股价?</strong></p><p> 进入2026年之后,全球芯片板块在AI需求与供给紧张的叙事下走出一波历史性行情,但同一段时间里,<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a></span>的股价却较年初高位回落。一边是<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK1127\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">AI芯片</span>公司估值动辄百倍市销率,一边是腾讯市盈率降至15倍以下,被贴上“传统互联网”标签。</p><p> “沧海V2”的横空出世,能否打破腾讯的市值困境?</p><p> “芯片自研高投入、长周期,V2量产不会直接贡献营收,对股价只有情绪面提振;资本市场对腾讯的核心估值逻辑,依然是微信生态、游戏、AI落地,芯片只是基础设施,不是独立估值引擎。”柏文喜说道。</p><p> 在王树一看来:“单靠一款芯片提升估值很难,只有自研大规模铺开,成本与效用真正转化为财务收益,才能支撑长期估值。” 也就是说,市场不缺 “科技故事”,缺的是 “利润兑现”。</p><p> 如果“沧海”系列能持续降低视频业务成本并对外输出,它将改善市场对腾讯“创新业务盈利能力”的预期,但这是一个漫长的过程。</p><p> 而在孙依妮看来,腾讯做的不是平台而是生态,生态的好处就在于其网络效应和转换成本极难替代。“只要腾讯的财报可以保证10%及以上的增长,那就会像英伟达一样,有长期的估值增长空间。自研视频芯片虽然只是腾讯这棵大树的一条分枝,但也是腾讯枝繁叶茂的基础。”</p><p>(文章来源:中国经营网)</p> </div></body></html>","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n腾讯“造芯”避开英伟达\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-06 03:44 北京时间 <a href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202606063762331668.html><strong>中国经营网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在2026年的资本市场上,没有什么比“芯片”二字更能撩动投资者的神经。从英伟达到AMD,芯片巨头们的股价伴随着全球对算力的饥渴一路狂飙。 2026年,美股费城半导体指数年内暴涨近80%,A股半导体指数普遍涨幅超过30%。与此形成鲜明对比的是,互联网公司股价大部分在今年出现了较大回撤,即使是业绩稳健增长的腾讯,股价也从年内的高点到现在的最大跌幅已超过30%。 在这场通用算力的狂欢中,5月底,腾讯...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202606063762331668.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK1526":"科网股","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU2462591350.SGD":"T ROWE PRICE US LARGE CAP GROWTH EQUITY \"AN\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0054450605.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKTS EQ \"AD\" INC","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU0049853897.USD":"SCHRODER ISF EMERGING MARKETS \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1934455277.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202606063762331668.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2641128978","content_text":"在2026年的资本市场上,没有什么比“芯片”二字更能撩动投资者的神经。从英伟达到AMD,芯片巨头们的股价伴随着全球对算力的饥渴一路狂飙。 2026年,美股费城半导体指数年内暴涨近80%,A股半导体指数普遍涨幅超过30%。与此形成鲜明对比的是,互联网公司股价大部分在今年出现了较大回撤,即使是业绩稳健增长的腾讯,股价也从年内的高点到现在的最大跌幅已超过30%。 在这场通用算力的狂欢中,5月底,腾讯也交出了一颗自研的芯片——“沧海V2”视频专用编解码芯片。 腾讯宣布“沧海V2”芯片在俄罗斯莫斯科国立大学举办的MSU硬件视频编码大赛中,于30至240fps所有速度档位的SSIM、PSNR、VMAF等全部指标上斩获第一,多项指标领先第二名超过30%。腾讯方面还表示,这颗芯片计划于2026年下半年正式量产。 此时,腾讯推出视频芯片,能否在这波算力狂欢中推动股价回升呢? “对于腾讯这种体量的公司,单纯靠一款芯片量产来提升估值很难。”谈芯首席分析师王树一对记者说道。 腾讯的经济账 当外界普遍认为互联网大厂造芯必须追赶英伟达时,腾讯选择了一条截然不同的小路。这条路不通向通用AI芯片的红海,而是深深扎进腾讯最熟悉的护城河——视频。 想要理解腾讯为什么做视频芯片,要看懂它财报里的一个细节。在腾讯2026年第一季度的财报中,游戏与社交贡献了近半利润,而包括视频号、腾讯云在内的生态基础设施业务,占比已达30%。这些业务有一个共同的底层消耗是带宽。 “腾讯最不缺的是视频流量,每天上亿场直播、4K点播,还有庞大的云游戏业务。”鼎信汇金研究员孙依妮对记者算了一笔账,“腾讯通过自研芯片每节省1%的带宽成本,那也是天文数字。而且视频不卡顿了、延迟更低,也会吸引更多的付费用户。” 这正是“沧海”系列芯片诞生的最直接驱动力。不同于英伟达、AMD面向所有开发者销售通用芯片,腾讯的芯片首先是“自用”。 中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文喜分析认为,腾讯选择视频专用芯片而非通用算力,是高度理性的“扬长避短”策略。“视频编解码是腾讯最核心的业务场景,包括微信视频号、腾讯视频、云游戏、直播等,这些业务需求明确、算法可控、优化空间大,属于需求驱动型造芯。” 记者从腾讯方面获悉,第一代“沧海”芯片已在其内部及公有云场景部署超过10万片。而“沧海V2”的压缩效率较上一代进一步提升:支持H.266标准后,压缩率提升超30%。这意味着,在同样画质下,传输视频的带宽可以省下近三分之一。 也就是说,当整个行业为获取昂贵的英伟达芯片而排队时,腾讯自研“沧海”系列芯片,其实是选择了一条能直接转化为财报利润的造芯路径。 孙依妮补充道:“在硬件方面,我们相比英伟达、AMD等头部厂商还有一些距离,而且腾讯本身也并不是专门研发制造芯片的科技公司,作为最大的娱乐平台,通过自研的技术芯片帮助优化视频效果是最直接产生效益的方案。” 但现实的问题在于,这种“省钱”的故事,在资本市场上的估值系数,远低于“赚钱”的故事。英伟达之所以能享受数十倍的市盈率,是因为它的芯片被全世界的云厂商、AI公司争相抢购,每一颗芯片都在创造增量收入。 差异化的造芯路径 腾讯不是第一家自研芯片的国内互联网大厂,如果把腾讯与阿里、字节、百度的芯片布局放在一起,可以看到各家在芯片上的布局各有不同。 其中,百度昆仑芯起步最早,不过聚焦在AI芯片上,包括AI训练芯片和AI推理芯片;阿里平头哥的芯片产品线最广,跨界了CPU、AI、IoT等;字节跳动虽然入局芯片的时间较晚,但速度迅猛,已经在研发AI推理、通用CPU、视频转码等芯片。 腾讯的芯片研发则更聚焦于自己的使用场景。2019年腾讯开始自研芯片,2021年首次披露了三款自研芯片,包括AI推理芯片紫霄、视频转码芯片沧海和智能网卡芯片玄灵。 其中,“沧海”芯片在2023年已经量产并大规模应用。目前,“沧海V1”已经在腾讯云以及腾讯自有场景中规模部署超10万片,覆盖直播和点播、4K超高清高帧率转码、云游戏实时编码、多媒体处理等核心场景。 “通用算力芯片面对英伟达、AMD的成熟生态,投入巨大且替代难度极高;视频转码芯片场景封闭、软件栈可控,更容易实现算法与硬件协同优化,腾讯的做法是典型的扬长避短。”柏文喜直言,腾讯此举也恰好填补了国内云端芯片在“多媒体处理”细分赛道的空白。 王树一则指出:“虽然都是互联网大厂,但各自优势领域不同。腾讯在音视频领域的市占率极高,从这里入手自研硬件,进退都有很好的基础。” 据介绍,腾讯“沧海”系列芯片深度融合软件算法与硬件架构,实现了全链路软硬件协同优化,从而实现压缩效率的最大化。 “简言之,腾讯‘沧海V2’的技术逻辑,从一开始就放弃了‘堆硬件’的路线。”孙依妮评价道,“它不靠算力堆砌提升性能,而是像电网调度电力一样,用算法动态分配算力,核心差异就是腾讯更重软件算法,而非硬件参数。” 也就是说,当画面复杂时,“沧海V2”会自动提升编码质量,画面单调时主动压缩。同时,芯片内置了GPU核心,实现了渲染与编码在同一芯片上协同工作,数据无须来回拷贝,直接解决了云游戏场景中长期存在的延迟痛点。 从行业竞争程度来看,在通用芯片领域,国产厂商与海外巨头的差距仍以年为单位计算;但在视频领域,国内外差距并不大。王树一指出:“无论是端侧还是云侧的视频处理芯片,本土都有非常优秀的产品,国际公司虽然可能有工艺优势,但本土公司在应用生态上极其丰富,通过深度优化应用来倒推芯片设计,反而有一定的优势。” 造芯能否撑起股价? 进入2026年之后,全球芯片板块在AI需求与供给紧张的叙事下走出一波历史性行情,但同一段时间里,腾讯控股的股价却较年初高位回落。一边是AI芯片公司估值动辄百倍市销率,一边是腾讯市盈率降至15倍以下,被贴上“传统互联网”标签。 “沧海V2”的横空出世,能否打破腾讯的市值困境? “芯片自研高投入、长周期,V2量产不会直接贡献营收,对股价只有情绪面提振;资本市场对腾讯的核心估值逻辑,依然是微信生态、游戏、AI落地,芯片只是基础设施,不是独立估值引擎。”柏文喜说道。 在王树一看来:“单靠一款芯片提升估值很难,只有自研大规模铺开,成本与效用真正转化为财务收益,才能支撑长期估值。” 也就是说,市场不缺 “科技故事”,缺的是 “利润兑现”。 如果“沧海”系列能持续降低视频业务成本并对外输出,它将改善市场对腾讯“创新业务盈利能力”的预期,但这是一个漫长的过程。 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