绿茶西湖龙井的个人主页 - 老虎社区

绿茶西湖龙井

绿茶西湖龙井

游荡华尔街

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43关注

149粉丝

2主题

0勋章

绿茶西湖龙井

2025-11-28

$京东(JD)$ 业绩不那么多，看空

绿茶西湖龙井

2025-05-29

想问一下如果，如果闯红灯了罚款扣6分，扣在谁的头上？

抱歉，原内容已删除

绿茶西湖龙井

2025-05-03

玩不起了

抱歉，原内容已删除

绿茶西湖龙井

2025-05-03

$霸王茶姬(CHA)$ 玩不起就别上市

绿茶西湖龙井

2025-01-08

$游戏驿站(GME)$ 最近总是开盘跌，尾盘涨

绿茶西湖龙井

2024-11-14

$美元/离岸人民币(USDCNH.FOREX)$ 最好人民币美元汇率到8.25到8：28:1

绿茶西湖龙井

2024-10-22

$京东(JD)$ 空京东是最好的选择

绿茶西湖龙井

2024-09-03

$水滴(WDH)$ 别丢人现眼了，

绿茶西湖龙井

2024-03-09

$水滴(WDH)$ 这种烂大街的东西可以退市了

绿茶西湖龙井

2023-08-20

中国银行又可以逼买房子🏠人的贷款了

抱歉，原内容已删除

绿茶西湖龙井

2023-08-20

恒大各的烂街楼系唔系要买家承担全部嘅钱咪？

抱歉，原内容已删除

绿茶西湖龙井

2023-07-27

$水滴(WDH)$ 这水滴还没停牌，要小心了，随时要停牌的风险

绿茶西湖龙井

2023-05-17

$硅谷银行(SIVBQ)$ 都破产保护了，还有人投资？？

绿茶西湖龙井

2022-07-28

好

@期权小班长:FOMC没有问题，问题在于GDP

绿茶西湖龙井

2022-07-04

好

@小虎综合资讯:港股开盘 | 恒指低开0.77%，恒生科技指数跌0.39%

绿茶西湖龙井

2022-06-15

好

@来咖智库:浅论海外NFT的整体投资价值和估值逻辑

绿茶西湖龙井

2022-05-31

好

@三合智能:美国通胀坚挺，对美联储加息节奏和资产配置怎么影响？

绿茶西湖龙井

2022-05-24

阿里巴巴跳大水了

抱歉，原内容已删除

绿茶西湖龙井

2022-05-09

好

@Ivan_甘灿荣:周一是俄罗斯的重磅日子，市场可能出现新一轮波动

绿茶西湖龙井

2022-02-07

美股今天晚上行情

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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业绩不那么多，看空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/505131198575424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":440161361761064,"gmtCreate":1748500179401,"gmtModify":1748500181348,"author":{"id":"3517906822003417","authorId":"3517906822003417","name":"绿茶西湖龙井","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5df8c72dc9460186ec3a9175a281f0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3517906822003417","idStr":"3517906822003417"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"想问一下如果，如果闯红灯了罚款扣6分，扣在谁的头上？","listText":"想问一下如果，如果闯红灯了罚款扣6分，扣在谁的头上？","text":"想问一下如果，如果闯红灯了罚款扣6分，扣在谁的头上？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/440161361761064","repostId":"1166949730","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3454322280138952","authorId":"3454322280138952","name":"lcn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e7cef294e64f48695b4a0c188d6d74","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3454322280138952","idStr":"3454322280138952"},"content":"其实这个问题，马哥10年就回答了。 立法决定，以前没有这个法律。是因为没有这个现象，现在有这个现象了，就通过立法解决问题。 比如以前没有汽车，后来有汽车了，出现了汽车伤人的事故，那怎么赔偿了？立法决定引入保险，没有酒驾毒驾，车辆符合标准的保险赔。 那如果有人问，我非要喝酒开车，那出了事故算谁的？法律规定算人的。那这人不服怎么办？可以选择不开车。 无人驾驶也一样，立法决定是由人陪还是保险赔，如果有人不服，可以不用这个功能。","text":"其实这个问题，马哥10年就回答了。 立法决定，以前没有这个法律。是因为没有这个现象，现在有这个现象了，就通过立法解决问题。 比如以前没有汽车，后来有汽车了，出现了汽车伤人的事故，那怎么赔偿了？立法决定引入保险，没有酒驾毒驾，车辆符合标准的保险赔。 那如果有人问，我非要喝酒开车，那出了事故算谁的？法律规定算人的。那这人不服怎么办？可以选择不开车。 无人驾驶也一样，立法决定是由人陪还是保险赔，如果有人不服，可以不用这个功能。","html":"其实这个问题，马哥10年就回答了。 立法决定，以前没有这个法律。是因为没有这个现象，现在有这个现象了，就通过立法解决问题。 比如以前没有汽车，后来有汽车了，出现了汽车伤人的事故，那怎么赔偿了？立法决定引入保险，没有酒驾毒驾，车辆符合标准的保险赔。 那如果有人问，我非要喝酒开车，那出了事故算谁的？法律规定算人的。那这人不服怎么办？可以选择不开车。 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHA\">$霸王茶姬(CHA)$ </a> 玩不起就别上市","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHA\">$霸王茶姬(CHA)$ </a> 玩不起就别上市","text":"$霸王茶姬(CHA)$ 玩不起就别上市","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/430836755694104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":390149425574312,"gmtCreate":1736285766573,"gmtModify":1736285767838,"author":{"id":"3517906822003417","authorId":"3517906822003417","name":"绿茶西湖龙井","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5df8c72dc9460186ec3a9175a281f0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3517906822003417","idStr":"3517906822003417"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 最近总是开盘跌，尾盘涨","listText":"<a 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最好人民币美元汇率到8.25到8：28:1","text":"$美元/离岸人民币(USDCNH.FOREX)$ 最好人民币美元汇率到8.25到8：28:1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370908166500640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8615,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4165787134050210","authorId":"4165787134050210","name":"业余的全职专业投资人","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4165787134050210","idStr":"4165787134050210"},"content":"美联储主席鲍威尔发言说，经济强劲，美联储无需急于降息，有时间再去了解特朗普总统政策的影响。美联储在通涨开始时迟缓加息，在通涨尚未完成时，出于政治倾向急忙大幅降息。特朗普总统很有可能因此问责美联储主席鲍威尔并掌管美联储！未来美联储将降息减少或不会降息，特朗普总统很有可能因此而未来将接管美联储并有炒鱿鱼的动作！","text":"美联储主席鲍威尔发言说，经济强劲，美联储无需急于降息，有时间再去了解特朗普总统政策的影响。美联储在通涨开始时迟缓加息，在通涨尚未完成时，出于政治倾向急忙大幅降息。特朗普总统很有可能因此问责美联储主席鲍威尔并掌管美联储！未来美联储将降息减少或不会降息，特朗普总统很有可能因此而未来将接管美联储并有炒鱿鱼的动作！","html":"美联储主席鲍威尔发言说，经济强劲，美联储无需急于降息，有时间再去了解特朗普总统政策的影响。美联储在通涨开始时迟缓加息，在通涨尚未完成时，出于政治倾向急忙大幅降息。特朗普总统很有可能因此问责美联储主席鲍威尔并掌管美联储！未来美联储将降息减少或不会降息，特朗普总统很有可能因此而未来将接管美联储并有炒鱿鱼的动作！"},{"author":{"id":"4165787134050210","authorId":"4165787134050210","name":"业余的全职专业投资人","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4165787134050210","idStr":"4165787134050210"},"content":"美联储主席鲍威尔发言说，经济强劲，美联储无需急于降息，有时间再去了解特朗普总统政策的影响。美联储在通涨开始时迟缓加息，在通涨尚未完成时，出于政治倾向急忙大幅降息。特朗普总统很有可能因此问责美联储主席鲍威尔并掌管美联储！未来美联储将降息减少或不会降息，特朗普总统很有可能因此而未来将接管美联储并有炒鱿鱼的动作！","text":"美联储主席鲍威尔发言说，经济强劲，美联储无需急于降息，有时间再去了解特朗普总统政策的影响。美联储在通涨开始时迟缓加息，在通涨尚未完成时，出于政治倾向急忙大幅降息。特朗普总统很有可能因此问责美联储主席鲍威尔并掌管美联储！未来美联储将降息减少或不会降息，特朗普总统很有可能因此而未来将接管美联储并有炒鱿鱼的动作！","html":"美联储主席鲍威尔发言说，经济强劲，美联储无需急于降息，有时间再去了解特朗普总统政策的影响。美联储在通涨开始时迟缓加息，在通涨尚未完成时，出于政治倾向急忙大幅降息。特朗普总统很有可能因此问责美联储主席鲍威尔并掌管美联储！未来美联储将降息减少或不会降息，特朗普总统很有可能因此而未来将接管美联储并有炒鱿鱼的动作！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362819337150776,"gmtCreate":1729601299329,"gmtModify":1729602499144,"author":{"id":"3517906822003417","authorId":"3517906822003417","name":"绿茶西湖龙井","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5df8c72dc9460186ec3a9175a281f0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3517906822003417","idStr":"3517906822003417"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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恒指低开0.77%，恒生科技指数跌0.39%","htmlText":"7月4日讯，恒指低开0.77%，恒生科技指数跌0.39%。清洁能源、新能源汽车、消费板块跌幅居前，新奥能源跌5%领跌蓝筹，小鹏汽车跌超5%。","listText":"7月4日讯，恒指低开0.77%，恒生科技指数跌0.39%。清洁能源、新能源汽车、消费板块跌幅居前，新奥能源跌5%领跌蓝筹，小鹏汽车跌超5%。","text":"7月4日讯，恒指低开0.77%，恒生科技指数跌0.39%。清洁能源、新能源汽车、消费板块跌幅居前，新奥能源跌5%领跌蓝筹，小鹏汽车跌超5%。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/681883996","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3064,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":689057526,"gmtCreate":1655302882067,"gmtModify":1704861856772,"author":{"id":"3517906822003417","authorId":"3517906822003417","name":"绿茶西湖龙井","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5df8c72dc9460186ec3a9175a281f0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3517906822003417","idStr":"3517906822003417"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689057526","repostId":"689024045","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":689024045,"gmtCreate":1655299489689,"gmtModify":1744802508619,"author":{"id":"3507250777591162","authorId":"3507250777591162","name":"来咖智库","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6f0d2755dfb56154f3f81b2bb5ca74f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3507250777591162","idStr":"3507250777591162"},"themes":[],"title":"浅论海外NFT的整体投资价值和估值逻辑","htmlText":"文&nbsp;|&nbsp;谭瑞峤 编辑 | 柴犬 编者按NFT自从2021年火爆出圈以来，受到市场的广泛关注和讨论。虽然海外市场的NFT的产品逻辑与国内市场的数字藏品并不完全一样，但通过全局性地了解海外市场的发展和运行逻辑，有助于帮大家从长期性的角度客观看待整个加密世界的生态。本文为作者在来咖智库“数字藏品&amp;NFT火热之下的冷思考”研讨会上的分享。针对海外的NFT市场，我们最终核心回答的第一个问题，就是抛开投机性而言，NFT整体价值在哪里，它到底是不是一个可持续的事情？第二个问题是关于当前NFT市场的价格，我们通过价格视角来给这个市场进行定义和分层，并构建NFT的估值体系。NFT供需两端有哪些参与者，他们参与的动机是什么？我们试图过他们的动机来理解这个市场的交易，从而对NFT的可持续性的进行更深入的观察。最后跟大家分享一些我们关于NFT本质的思考。01NFT为何在2021年出圈？首先关于NFT是什么，大家已经有很多探讨了。澄清一件事情，我身边有很多人对这件事情有一些误解或者迷惑，他们认为NFT是不是就是买到的那个图片或者形象吗？事实并非如此。它从物理上来说就是一串数字，一个代码，它代表了我们买卖的这个图片或形象。NFT这一串代码是存储在区块链上的，但是它映射的这个对象却未必是存储在区块链上的。关于海外NFT市场当前的一个情况。总体来看， 2021年NFT的市场规模肯定是会超过200亿美元，而且在市场上的用户体量和供给，至少是百万级以上的规模，呈现出非常高增长的态势。在品类上，我们观察到某些NFT的主流平台，并没有对NFT做非常严格的划分，但是绝大多数平台都会以以下这几种品类为主：艺术品、收藏品、体育类产品、游戏类产品、元宇宙、虚拟世界，等等。还有一些剩下的小品类，包括像音乐类，摄影类，甚至有更小众的推特和推文类。这些都可以被制作成NFT的形式，在NFT的交易平台上","listText":"文&nbsp;|&nbsp;谭瑞峤 编辑 | 柴犬 编者按NFT自从2021年火爆出圈以来，受到市场的广泛关注和讨论。虽然海外市场的NFT的产品逻辑与国内市场的数字藏品并不完全一样，但通过全局性地了解海外市场的发展和运行逻辑，有助于帮大家从长期性的角度客观看待整个加密世界的生态。本文为作者在来咖智库“数字藏品&amp;NFT火热之下的冷思考”研讨会上的分享。针对海外的NFT市场，我们最终核心回答的第一个问题，就是抛开投机性而言，NFT整体价值在哪里，它到底是不是一个可持续的事情？第二个问题是关于当前NFT市场的价格，我们通过价格视角来给这个市场进行定义和分层，并构建NFT的估值体系。NFT供需两端有哪些参与者，他们参与的动机是什么？我们试图过他们的动机来理解这个市场的交易，从而对NFT的可持续性的进行更深入的观察。最后跟大家分享一些我们关于NFT本质的思考。01NFT为何在2021年出圈？首先关于NFT是什么，大家已经有很多探讨了。澄清一件事情，我身边有很多人对这件事情有一些误解或者迷惑，他们认为NFT是不是就是买到的那个图片或者形象吗？事实并非如此。它从物理上来说就是一串数字，一个代码，它代表了我们买卖的这个图片或形象。NFT这一串代码是存储在区块链上的，但是它映射的这个对象却未必是存储在区块链上的。关于海外NFT市场当前的一个情况。总体来看， 2021年NFT的市场规模肯定是会超过200亿美元，而且在市场上的用户体量和供给，至少是百万级以上的规模，呈现出非常高增长的态势。在品类上，我们观察到某些NFT的主流平台，并没有对NFT做非常严格的划分，但是绝大多数平台都会以以下这几种品类为主：艺术品、收藏品、体育类产品、游戏类产品、元宇宙、虚拟世界，等等。还有一些剩下的小品类，包括像音乐类，摄影类，甚至有更小众的推特和推文类。这些都可以被制作成NFT的形式，在NFT的交易平台上","text":"文 | 谭瑞峤 编辑 | 柴犬 编者按NFT自从2021年火爆出圈以来，受到市场的广泛关注和讨论。虽然海外市场的NFT的产品逻辑与国内市场的数字藏品并不完全一样，但通过全局性地了解海外市场的发展和运行逻辑，有助于帮大家从长期性的角度客观看待整个加密世界的生态。本文为作者在来咖智库“数字藏品&NFT火热之下的冷思考”研讨会上的分享。针对海外的NFT市场，我们最终核心回答的第一个问题，就是抛开投机性而言，NFT整体价值在哪里，它到底是不是一个可持续的事情？第二个问题是关于当前NFT市场的价格，我们通过价格视角来给这个市场进行定义和分层，并构建NFT的估值体系。NFT供需两端有哪些参与者，他们参与的动机是什么？我们试图过他们的动机来理解这个市场的交易，从而对NFT的可持续性的进行更深入的观察。最后跟大家分享一些我们关于NFT本质的思考。01NFT为何在2021年出圈？首先关于NFT是什么，大家已经有很多探讨了。澄清一件事情，我身边有很多人对这件事情有一些误解或者迷惑，他们认为NFT是不是就是买到的那个图片或者形象吗？事实并非如此。它从物理上来说就是一串数字，一个代码，它代表了我们买卖的这个图片或形象。NFT这一串代码是存储在区块链上的，但是它映射的这个对象却未必是存储在区块链上的。关于海外NFT市场当前的一个情况。总体来看， 2021年NFT的市场规模肯定是会超过200亿美元，而且在市场上的用户体量和供给，至少是百万级以上的规模，呈现出非常高增长的态势。在品类上，我们观察到某些NFT的主流平台，并没有对NFT做非常严格的划分，但是绝大多数平台都会以以下这几种品类为主：艺术品、收藏品、体育类产品、游戏类产品、元宇宙、虚拟世界，等等。还有一些剩下的小品类，包括像音乐类，摄影类，甚至有更小众的推特和推文类。这些都可以被制作成NFT的形式，在NFT的交易平台上","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9df4ebfab459f745c73e9c7fbe57fcb","width":"1080","height":"589"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689024045","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":617980092,"gmtCreate":1654000969217,"gmtModify":1704858518404,"author":{"id":"3517906822003417","authorId":"3517906822003417","name":"绿茶西湖龙井","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5df8c72dc9460186ec3a9175a281f0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3517906822003417","idStr":"3517906822003417"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/617980092","repostId":"617051331","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":617051331,"gmtCreate":1653972422525,"gmtModify":1704858404231,"author":{"id":"4101854786458470","authorId":"4101854786458470","name":"三合智能","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bf943e0600579c52b9b6c967fe103b7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101854786458470","idStr":"4101854786458470"},"themes":[],"title":"美国通胀坚挺，对美联储加息节奏和资产配置怎么影响？","htmlText":"摘要 美联储议息会议将于6月14—15日举行，在就业恢复良好的情况下，通胀将是决定美联储货币政策制定的关键。 5月通胀数据喜忧参半，喜的是整体通胀水平同比增速见顶回落，忧的是美国核心通胀仍然过热。具体来看，涨幅主要由住宅、食品、交通运输所贡献，原油价格有所降温。 鉴于劳动力短期缺口仍在，现场办公劳动力回归，疫情反复对供应链的扰乱，将导致薪资-通胀螺旋上升，房租持续上涨，国际运价上涨，短期通胀水平可能不会明显回落，仍处于高位。 通胀虽有降温迹象，美联储6-7月各加息50bp的决策恐怕难以改变。 美国4月通胀数据喜忧参半 CPI：通胀同比增速有所回落，但核心通胀环比增速仍然高企 5月11日美国劳工统计局发布数据显示，4月CPI环比0.3%（前值1.2%），核心CPI环比0.6%（前值0.3%）；4月CPI同比8.3%（前值8.5%），核心CPI同比6.2%（前值6.5%）。4月通胀数据喜忧参半。4月通胀看似降温，CPI同比增速有所回落，但降幅不及预期，且4月核心CPI环比增速也仍然高企，超出市场预期。图表 1&nbsp;美国4月CPI同比增速有所回落数据来源：Wind，海银财富研究部图表 2美国4月核心通胀环比增速仍然高企数据来源：Wind，海银财富研究部涨幅主要由住宅、食品、交通运输所贡献，原油价格有所降温。按美国CPI八大一级分项法来看，就同比贡献率而言，主要由交通运输项、住宅项和食品饮料所贡献。就季调环比贡献率而言，住宅、食品饮料、医疗保健为主要拉动项。图表 3&nbsp;美国CPI分项及美国CPI核心分项构成及权重&nbsp;数据来源：Wind，海银研究院图表 4&nbsp;同比来看交通运输、住宅和食品饮料成为主要贡献项&nbsp;数据来源：Wind，海银研究院图表 5环比来看，住宅、食品饮料、医疗保健为主要拉动项&nbsp;数据来源：Wind，海银研究院交通运输项中起","listText":"摘要 美联储议息会议将于6月14—15日举行，在就业恢复良好的情况下，通胀将是决定美联储货币政策制定的关键。 5月通胀数据喜忧参半，喜的是整体通胀水平同比增速见顶回落，忧的是美国核心通胀仍然过热。具体来看，涨幅主要由住宅、食品、交通运输所贡献，原油价格有所降温。 鉴于劳动力短期缺口仍在，现场办公劳动力回归，疫情反复对供应链的扰乱，将导致薪资-通胀螺旋上升，房租持续上涨，国际运价上涨，短期通胀水平可能不会明显回落，仍处于高位。 通胀虽有降温迹象，美联储6-7月各加息50bp的决策恐怕难以改变。 美国4月通胀数据喜忧参半 CPI：通胀同比增速有所回落，但核心通胀环比增速仍然高企 5月11日美国劳工统计局发布数据显示，4月CPI环比0.3%（前值1.2%），核心CPI环比0.6%（前值0.3%）；4月CPI同比8.3%（前值8.5%），核心CPI同比6.2%（前值6.5%）。4月通胀数据喜忧参半。4月通胀看似降温，CPI同比增速有所回落，但降幅不及预期，且4月核心CPI环比增速也仍然高企，超出市场预期。图表 1&nbsp;美国4月CPI同比增速有所回落数据来源：Wind，海银财富研究部图表 2美国4月核心通胀环比增速仍然高企数据来源：Wind，海银财富研究部涨幅主要由住宅、食品、交通运输所贡献，原油价格有所降温。按美国CPI八大一级分项法来看，就同比贡献率而言，主要由交通运输项、住宅项和食品饮料所贡献。就季调环比贡献率而言，住宅、食品饮料、医疗保健为主要拉动项。图表 3&nbsp;美国CPI分项及美国CPI核心分项构成及权重&nbsp;数据来源：Wind，海银研究院图表 4&nbsp;同比来看交通运输、住宅和食品饮料成为主要贡献项&nbsp;数据来源：Wind，海银研究院图表 5环比来看，住宅、食品饮料、医疗保健为主要拉动项&nbsp;数据来源：Wind，海银研究院交通运输项中起","text":"摘要 美联储议息会议将于6月14—15日举行，在就业恢复良好的情况下，通胀将是决定美联储货币政策制定的关键。 5月通胀数据喜忧参半，喜的是整体通胀水平同比增速见顶回落，忧的是美国核心通胀仍然过热。具体来看，涨幅主要由住宅、食品、交通运输所贡献，原油价格有所降温。 鉴于劳动力短期缺口仍在，现场办公劳动力回归，疫情反复对供应链的扰乱，将导致薪资-通胀螺旋上升，房租持续上涨，国际运价上涨，短期通胀水平可能不会明显回落，仍处于高位。 通胀虽有降温迹象，美联储6-7月各加息50bp的决策恐怕难以改变。 美国4月通胀数据喜忧参半 CPI：通胀同比增速有所回落，但核心通胀环比增速仍然高企 5月11日美国劳工统计局发布数据显示，4月CPI环比0.3%（前值1.2%），核心CPI环比0.6%（前值0.3%）；4月CPI同比8.3%（前值8.5%），核心CPI同比6.2%（前值6.5%）。4月通胀数据喜忧参半。4月通胀看似降温，CPI同比增速有所回落，但降幅不及预期，且4月核心CPI环比增速也仍然高企，超出市场预期。图表 1 美国4月CPI同比增速有所回落数据来源：Wind，海银财富研究部图表 2美国4月核心通胀环比增速仍然高企数据来源：Wind，海银财富研究部涨幅主要由住宅、食品、交通运输所贡献，原油价格有所降温。按美国CPI八大一级分项法来看，就同比贡献率而言，主要由交通运输项、住宅项和食品饮料所贡献。就季调环比贡献率而言，住宅、食品饮料、医疗保健为主要拉动项。图表 3 美国CPI分项及美国CPI核心分项构成及权重 数据来源：Wind，海银研究院图表 4 同比来看交通运输、住宅和食品饮料成为主要贡献项 数据来源：Wind，海银研究院图表 5环比来看，住宅、食品饮料、医疗保健为主要拉动项 数据来源：Wind，海银研究院交通运输项中起","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec978ce6538017e4d48f6fecaf723d6f","width":"632","height":"331"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbe5c08e213124c816c9fd55c6773d98","width":"632","height":"308"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c370aaa5caedcccb3109b69c571f5e31","width":"632","height":"378"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/617051331","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":31,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":614388683,"gmtCreate":1653386202242,"gmtModify":1653386202242,"author":{"id":"3517906822003417","authorId":"3517906822003417","name":"绿茶西湖龙井","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5df8c72dc9460186ec3a9175a281f0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3517906822003417","idStr":"3517906822003417"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"阿里巴巴跳大水了","listText":"阿里巴巴跳大水了","text":"阿里巴巴跳大水了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/614388683","repostId":"1144720351","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612052459,"gmtCreate":1652096434871,"gmtModify":1652096434871,"author":{"id":"3517906822003417","authorId":"3517906822003417","name":"绿茶西湖龙井","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5df8c72dc9460186ec3a9175a281f0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3517906822003417","idStr":"3517906822003417"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612052459","repostId":"612006949","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":612006949,"gmtCreate":1652063764496,"gmtModify":1652069635020,"author":{"id":"3534312224764596","authorId":"3534312224764596","name":"Ivan_甘灿荣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3534312224764596","idStr":"3534312224764596"},"themes":[],"title":"周一是俄罗斯的重磅日子，市场可能出现新一轮波动","htmlText":"周一是俄罗斯的重磅日子，5月9日是俄罗斯卫国战争胜利日，且当日俄罗斯将会在首都莫斯科红场举行阅兵（该日子的重要性可类似于咱们中国国庆阅兵）。在常态年份咱们一般不过多关注，但目前俄乌冲突正处于胶着状态，且并无谈妥的迹象，因此该重要日子一般都会是秀肌肉甚至是重要表态的时候，因此下周一很可能会决定未来一段时间的市场动向。 此前市场有很多传言，其一是俄罗斯打算在5月9日谈判结束，宣布乌克兰特别军事行动取得大捷，鸣金收兵。目前来看该传言显然无法达到；其二是俄方打算在5月9日升级乌克兰战争由局部打击变成全面出击，若此传言属实，则再一次调动市场的战争情绪，那么油价涨、黄金涨、股市崩将再一次重演；其三是俄方在当日宣布特别军事行动所取得的“重大战果”，提振国内士气，向欧美乌展示更多谈判的底气及底牌。若此情况可能对短期市场影响有限，但长期影响实为利多效应，毕竟欧美也不会示弱，造成战争持续且加剧。 一、对美股指的影响 &nbsp; 上周说过，若美国“软着陆”则“保股市，商品崩”；若“硬着陆”则“商品续涨，股市崩”。无论哪种路径，总有一类资产价格受到牵连。而从上周的走势看，美股指又到了下跌的边缘。 回看我前两周的帖子，标普颈线位置在4200附近，道指则在33000附近。现在两个指数均跌穿该颈线位置，如果没有暴力反弹远离该处，那么美股指就很难有好表现了。在大变局的时代下，避险是首位，有时候市场波动在某些消息的助推下，会远超预期的。 策略上，以标普为例，以20日均线作为跟踪止盈止损路线，在此线之下做空或对冲。此线之上则空头止盈，但也不着急做多，多看少动为佳。 二、对能源的影响 毫无疑问，战事升级提振战争情绪，能源价格看空就变得困难。由于各大投行均极力唱多油价，或许再一次发生逼仓行情也是可能，只不过波动会很大，大家要小心处理。跟踪策略上，10周均线仍是很好的跟踪均线，油价此轮上涨均未跌穿该线，因此（周五","listText":"周一是俄罗斯的重磅日子，5月9日是俄罗斯卫国战争胜利日，且当日俄罗斯将会在首都莫斯科红场举行阅兵（该日子的重要性可类似于咱们中国国庆阅兵）。在常态年份咱们一般不过多关注，但目前俄乌冲突正处于胶着状态，且并无谈妥的迹象，因此该重要日子一般都会是秀肌肉甚至是重要表态的时候，因此下周一很可能会决定未来一段时间的市场动向。 此前市场有很多传言，其一是俄罗斯打算在5月9日谈判结束，宣布乌克兰特别军事行动取得大捷，鸣金收兵。目前来看该传言显然无法达到；其二是俄方打算在5月9日升级乌克兰战争由局部打击变成全面出击，若此传言属实，则再一次调动市场的战争情绪，那么油价涨、黄金涨、股市崩将再一次重演；其三是俄方在当日宣布特别军事行动所取得的“重大战果”，提振国内士气，向欧美乌展示更多谈判的底气及底牌。若此情况可能对短期市场影响有限，但长期影响实为利多效应，毕竟欧美也不会示弱，造成战争持续且加剧。 一、对美股指的影响 &nbsp; 上周说过，若美国“软着陆”则“保股市，商品崩”；若“硬着陆”则“商品续涨，股市崩”。无论哪种路径，总有一类资产价格受到牵连。而从上周的走势看，美股指又到了下跌的边缘。 回看我前两周的帖子，标普颈线位置在4200附近，道指则在33000附近。现在两个指数均跌穿该颈线位置，如果没有暴力反弹远离该处，那么美股指就很难有好表现了。在大变局的时代下，避险是首位，有时候市场波动在某些消息的助推下，会远超预期的。 策略上，以标普为例，以20日均线作为跟踪止盈止损路线，在此线之下做空或对冲。此线之上则空头止盈，但也不着急做多，多看少动为佳。 二、对能源的影响 毫无疑问，战事升级提振战争情绪，能源价格看空就变得困难。由于各大投行均极力唱多油价，或许再一次发生逼仓行情也是可能，只不过波动会很大，大家要小心处理。跟踪策略上，10周均线仍是很好的跟踪均线，油价此轮上涨均未跌穿该线，因此（周五","text":"周一是俄罗斯的重磅日子，5月9日是俄罗斯卫国战争胜利日，且当日俄罗斯将会在首都莫斯科红场举行阅兵（该日子的重要性可类似于咱们中国国庆阅兵）。在常态年份咱们一般不过多关注，但目前俄乌冲突正处于胶着状态，且并无谈妥的迹象，因此该重要日子一般都会是秀肌肉甚至是重要表态的时候，因此下周一很可能会决定未来一段时间的市场动向。 此前市场有很多传言，其一是俄罗斯打算在5月9日谈判结束，宣布乌克兰特别军事行动取得大捷，鸣金收兵。目前来看该传言显然无法达到；其二是俄方打算在5月9日升级乌克兰战争由局部打击变成全面出击，若此传言属实，则再一次调动市场的战争情绪，那么油价涨、黄金涨、股市崩将再一次重演；其三是俄方在当日宣布特别军事行动所取得的“重大战果”，提振国内士气，向欧美乌展示更多谈判的底气及底牌。若此情况可能对短期市场影响有限，但长期影响实为利多效应，毕竟欧美也不会示弱，造成战争持续且加剧。 一、对美股指的影响 上周说过，若美国“软着陆”则“保股市，商品崩”；若“硬着陆”则“商品续涨，股市崩”。无论哪种路径，总有一类资产价格受到牵连。而从上周的走势看，美股指又到了下跌的边缘。 回看我前两周的帖子，标普颈线位置在4200附近，道指则在33000附近。现在两个指数均跌穿该颈线位置，如果没有暴力反弹远离该处，那么美股指就很难有好表现了。在大变局的时代下，避险是首位，有时候市场波动在某些消息的助推下，会远超预期的。 策略上，以标普为例，以20日均线作为跟踪止盈止损路线，在此线之下做空或对冲。此线之上则空头止盈，但也不着急做多，多看少动为佳。 二、对能源的影响 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