小脑斧大王的个人主页 - 老虎社区

小脑斧大王

小脑斧大王

个人简介：比大西几还厉害

IP属地：北京

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小脑斧大王

2019-10-10

$鲁大师(03601)$下面开始玩谁能拿得住的游戏啦

小脑斧大王

2019-10-30

$迅雷(XNET)$建议大家看看区块链大师这个公众号，虽然不咋更新了，是难得的技术派，一年前就把区块链技术预测的很准，中心化组织搞去中心化技术本身就是反人性的，so，坚决做空，收益很好

小脑斧大王

2019-10-23

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$小鹿咖啡就是最后的挣扎，财报前再割一把，京东旗舰店杯子才卖出几百个，6000多人关注，，天猫旗舰店更惨，完全与他号称的规模不符还不如普通网红品牌，这些数据很能说明问题

小脑斧大王

2019-07-10

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$ 鹿头出茶叶只能说明一个问题，有病乱投医了，估计后面是奶茶汽水大杂烩，多必然不专，看来问题大了

小脑斧大王

2020-11-19

$蛋壳公寓(DNK)$政府出公告了，会不会停牌

小脑斧大王

2019-09-26

$Slack Technologies(WORK)$其实你们装一个slack软件用用就知道了，这是多么反人类的设计，能成功就有鬼了，股价走势也反应了这一点

小脑斧大王

2019-09-24

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$慰来用了7个月现原形，不知道瑞幸准备用几个月[龇牙]

小脑斧大王

2020-06-18

$跟谁学(GSX)$蛋壳都破了，gsx还有多远

小脑斧大王

2019-06-25

$Zoom(ZM)$ 按照30倍pe估值，目前的利润要翻100倍才能支持这个股价，记住是利润翻100倍，参考网易估值，自己掂量

小脑斧大王

2019-05-18

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$ 终于开启股民请你喝咖啡模式了，典型的骗子股

小脑斧大王

2021-01-04

$蔚来(NIO)$今天空它是个正道

小脑斧大王

2019-10-29

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$看看假肉解禁的走势，盈利了都大跌20%，可想而知鹿头的财报加解禁，有鹿腿吃啦

小脑斧大王

2019-10-22

$国美零售(00493)$国美就是静等老黄出狱，创始人回归，看看李宁和乔布斯，王者归来不是说着玩的，静等花开吧

小脑斧大王

2020-12-03

$国美零售(00493)$现在是明牌，耐心等明年2月16吧，老黄是保释不能抛头露面，还要定期报到[龇牙]

小脑斧大王

2019-10-10

$鲁大师(03601)$良心股，现在pe才20倍

小脑斧大王

2019-06-17

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$ 其实瑞辛的核心不是卖咖啡而是卖股权，听懂的老铁给个双击666

小脑斧大王

2021-02-19

$国美零售(00493)$听说马上公布老黄任职董事局主席了

小脑斧大王

2019-11-14

$迅雷(XNET)$这个价位财报烂成这样，想想都开心😃

小脑斧大王

2021-08-05

此文一发必然是要大跌了，软文！心里有鬼

股票解禁前夜，跟快手几位员工聊了聊：走，还是留？

小脑斧大王

2020-06-02

$嘉楠科技(CAN)$btc突然大跌啊，快跑

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">$迅雷(XNET)$</a>这个价位财报烂成这样，想想都开心😃","text":"$迅雷(XNET)$这个价位财报烂成这样，想想都开心😃","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/935464763","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":890407984,"gmtCreate":1628126788048,"gmtModify":1628126788048,"author":{"id":"3515122840110942","authorId":"3515122840110942","name":"小脑斧大王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c661f4ee7d59f0295c79c6f97ba10e59","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"此文一发必然是要大跌了，软文！心里有鬼","listText":"此文一发必然是要大跌了，软文！心里有鬼","text":"此文一发必然是要大跌了，软文！心里有鬼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890407984","repostId":"1189214910","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189214910","pubTimestamp":1628081110,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189214910?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 20:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"股票解禁前夜，跟快手几位员工聊了聊：走，还是留？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189214910","media":"开柒","summary":"解禁后怎么处理股票，既要对现实回报进行考量，也要个人对公司发展趋势做出预判。","content":"<p>话说，最近好多互联网大厂都处于风口浪尖，股价震荡，员工们也都有些心有戚戚然。而其中，快手的童鞋们估计也是纠结的代表——眼看着禁售期马上结束了，但当前的快手股价却远不及预期。</p>\n<p>当然，快手的下跌也不是个例，大环境如此嘛。环顾互联网行业整体，从二级市场的反馈来看并不平静。7月27日，恒生指数下跌超过4%，互联网股集中的恒生科技指数大跌7.97%，创出该指数发布以来史上最大单日跌幅。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ce7fc1c88b321e90886c2b7c303250b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>八姐恰好有几个在快手的盆友，俺也趁机安慰了一下他们。有的快手盆友说，说不郁闷是假的。毕竟，在业务基本面稳定的情况下，总觉得快手应该匹配更好的市值，万万没想到市场的降温来得这么快。</p>\n<p>不过，几乎八姐询问的所有童鞋都说，他们并不着急卖股票，毕竟，现在快手的股价低得超过了他们心理预期，基于对公司中长期发展的预判，可以再等等。</p>\n<p>当然，也有快手的盆友过来纠结的问八姐：你说，公司股价不会一路再向下吧？八姐也不是神仙，不过，俺觉得吧，正常来说，所有的美股和港股上市公司都会有“解禁低迷期”，也就是说，在180天的解禁前后，会出现股价的低迷，甚至这种低迷会持续到解禁后的半年。但只要公司基本面向好，长期来看，公司股价仍有上涨空间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee90e1cd21c433c51583304cc9925217\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>以同样在港股上市的小米为例，小米是2018年7月9日上市的，当时发行价18港元，而到了半年后的解禁日，小米股价创下上市以来新低，以11.1港元收盘，解禁次日，盘中触及上市以来股价最低点9.44港币。甚至，在随后的整个2019年一整年，股价继续低迷。八姐记得，当时俺跟小米的童鞋吃饭，一大揶揄的话题就是，你看看，你拼死拼活的好几年996，拿到的股票还不够在北五环买个房子的。</p>\n<p>但小米在去年开始了猛涨，一度较发行价涨了一倍多，即便近期股价调整后，也较发行价高出50%。所以，八姐觉得，不要郁闷，只要拿得住股票，做价值投资，没准哪天你又赚大了。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2e3e1ba204d89af7c2afa60b0be6bd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>（小米股价走势图）</p>\n<p>而且就快手的员工股票而言，参照IPO时的招股书信息来看（除高管外的普通员工）约有7015名普通员工，获得4.23亿股购股权，平均下来每人约可获得6万股的回报，即便是按照现在的股价，那平均每人也是超过500万元。考虑到归属时间、离职等因素导致的未完全归属情形，解禁后并不意味着这些股票马上就能变现，但长期来看，仍是一笔比较可观的回报。所以，别着急。</p>\n<p>从外界对快手二季度的业绩预期来看，当前快手处在用户增长淡季，&nbsp;&nbsp;营销费用预计仍会维持在较高水平。但与此同时，八姐觉得，还应当拉长时间线向后看。</p>\n<p>比如，在用户增长方面，快手二季度活跃用户增长放缓可能与一季度春节拉新增长高强相关，但在第三季度，快手在奥运方面的投入可能令其获得更多的新增用户。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5082e7fab8a2404dedc71564b576fba6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1045\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>再比如，快手的电商、广告业务发展的巨大增长潜力。投行杰富瑞（Jeffries）就在研报中指出，从长期发展来看，公域的扩容十分关键。受益于线上营销及电商业务的强劲增长动力，预计快手二季度总收入同比将增长44%至186亿元人民币。今年一季度，快手财报数据显示，线上营销服务收入为86亿元，对总收入的贡献占比首次超过50%。这一趋势有望在二季度延续。</p>\n<p>另外，快手的海外增长也值得关注，尽管快手在海外部分的投入，被不少分析者认为令快手亏损扩大，但在对快手整体价值进行预估的时候，不少人却忽略了海外的成长空间。中金等机构分析认为，当前海外短视频渗透率不及国内，面临相对宽松的竞争环境，快手将因地制宜，通过特定内容矩阵吸引目标用户，并基于内容实现“破圈”。</p>\n<p>总之，八姐觉得吧，解禁后怎么处理股票，既要对现实回报进行考量，也要个人对公司发展趋势做出预判。</p>\n<p>不久前，QM刚刚发布了半年报告，截止2021年6月，短视频APP行业月活跃用户规模排名中，抖音、快手、快手极速版、抖音极速版分别占据前四。在一个非“赢家通吃”的竞争市场，快手的机会还是很大的。</p>\n<p>受到市场传言等各种因素影响，快手当前的市值仅为580亿美元上下，八姐认为，这个价格真心不算高啊。对于快手的童鞋来说，说不定一年后再来看，把股票留着才是一个正确的决定。</p>","source":"kq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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}\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n股票解禁前夜，跟快手几位员工聊了聊：走，还是留？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-04 20:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/MfeBQziNmMjdX-4YH8ByPQ><strong>开柒</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>话说，最近好多互联网大厂都处于风口浪尖，股价震荡，员工们也都有些心有戚戚然。而其中，快手的童鞋们估计也是纠结的代表——眼看着禁售期马上结束了，但当前的快手股价却远不及预期。\n当然，快手的下跌也不是个例，大环境如此嘛。环顾互联网行业整体，从二级市场的反馈来看并不平静。7月27日，恒生指数下跌超过4%，互联网股集中的恒生科技指数大跌7.97%，创出该指数发布以来史上最大单日跌幅。\n\n八姐恰好有几个在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/MfeBQziNmMjdX-4YH8ByPQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3755fdda80ee4878d06bf1bcbfdbf496","relate_stocks":{"01024":"快手-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/MfeBQziNmMjdX-4YH8ByPQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189214910","content_text":"话说，最近好多互联网大厂都处于风口浪尖，股价震荡，员工们也都有些心有戚戚然。而其中，快手的童鞋们估计也是纠结的代表——眼看着禁售期马上结束了，但当前的快手股价却远不及预期。\n当然，快手的下跌也不是个例，大环境如此嘛。环顾互联网行业整体，从二级市场的反馈来看并不平静。7月27日，恒生指数下跌超过4%，互联网股集中的恒生科技指数大跌7.97%，创出该指数发布以来史上最大单日跌幅。\n\n八姐恰好有几个在快手的盆友，俺也趁机安慰了一下他们。有的快手盆友说，说不郁闷是假的。毕竟，在业务基本面稳定的情况下，总觉得快手应该匹配更好的市值，万万没想到市场的降温来得这么快。\n不过，几乎八姐询问的所有童鞋都说，他们并不着急卖股票，毕竟，现在快手的股价低得超过了他们心理预期，基于对公司中长期发展的预判，可以再等等。\n当然，也有快手的盆友过来纠结的问八姐：你说，公司股价不会一路再向下吧？八姐也不是神仙，不过，俺觉得吧，正常来说，所有的美股和港股上市公司都会有“解禁低迷期”，也就是说，在180天的解禁前后，会出现股价的低迷，甚至这种低迷会持续到解禁后的半年。但只要公司基本面向好，长期来看，公司股价仍有上涨空间。\n\n以同样在港股上市的小米为例，小米是2018年7月9日上市的，当时发行价18港元，而到了半年后的解禁日，小米股价创下上市以来新低，以11.1港元收盘，解禁次日，盘中触及上市以来股价最低点9.44港币。甚至，在随后的整个2019年一整年，股价继续低迷。八姐记得，当时俺跟小米的童鞋吃饭，一大揶揄的话题就是，你看看，你拼死拼活的好几年996，拿到的股票还不够在北五环买个房子的。\n但小米在去年开始了猛涨，一度较发行价涨了一倍多，即便近期股价调整后，也较发行价高出50%。所以，八姐觉得，不要郁闷，只要拿得住股票，做价值投资，没准哪天你又赚大了。\n\n（小米股价走势图）\n而且就快手的员工股票而言，参照IPO时的招股书信息来看（除高管外的普通员工）约有7015名普通员工，获得4.23亿股购股权，平均下来每人约可获得6万股的回报，即便是按照现在的股价，那平均每人也是超过500万元。考虑到归属时间、离职等因素导致的未完全归属情形，解禁后并不意味着这些股票马上就能变现，但长期来看，仍是一笔比较可观的回报。所以，别着急。\n从外界对快手二季度的业绩预期来看，当前快手处在用户增长淡季，  营销费用预计仍会维持在较高水平。但与此同时，八姐觉得，还应当拉长时间线向后看。\n比如，在用户增长方面，快手二季度活跃用户增长放缓可能与一季度春节拉新增长高强相关，但在第三季度，快手在奥运方面的投入可能令其获得更多的新增用户。\n\n再比如，快手的电商、广告业务发展的巨大增长潜力。投行杰富瑞（Jeffries）就在研报中指出，从长期发展来看，公域的扩容十分关键。受益于线上营销及电商业务的强劲增长动力，预计快手二季度总收入同比将增长44%至186亿元人民币。今年一季度，快手财报数据显示，线上营销服务收入为86亿元，对总收入的贡献占比首次超过50%。这一趋势有望在二季度延续。\n另外，快手的海外增长也值得关注，尽管快手在海外部分的投入，被不少分析者认为令快手亏损扩大，但在对快手整体价值进行预估的时候，不少人却忽略了海外的成长空间。中金等机构分析认为，当前海外短视频渗透率不及国内，面临相对宽松的竞争环境，快手将因地制宜，通过特定内容矩阵吸引目标用户，并基于内容实现“破圈”。\n总之，八姐觉得吧，解禁后怎么处理股票，既要对现实回报进行考量，也要个人对公司发展趋势做出预判。\n不久前，QM刚刚发布了半年报告，截止2021年6月，短视频APP行业月活跃用户规模排名中，抖音、快手、快手极速版、抖音极速版分别占据前四。在一个非“赢家通吃”的竞争市场，快手的机会还是很大的。\n受到市场传言等各种因素影响，快手当前的市值仅为580亿美元上下，八姐认为，这个价格真心不算高啊。对于快手的童鞋来说，说不定一年后再来看，把股票留着才是一个正确的决定。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":958906708,"gmtCreate":1591109523804,"gmtModify":1704194435577,"author":{"id":"3515122840110942","authorId":"3515122840110942","name":"小脑斧大王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c661f4ee7d59f0295c79c6f97ba10e59","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">$嘉楠科技(CAN)$</a>btc突然大跌啊，快跑","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">$嘉楠科技(CAN)$</a>btc突然大跌啊，快跑","text":"$嘉楠科技(CAN)$btc突然大跌啊，快跑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/958906708","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}