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C126

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11-12 10:35

哈哈哈哈哈哈哈，鸡贼

禾赛（02525）跌近4% 美银下调其2026/2027财年出货量预测

11-12 10:22

这都什么野鸡市场

港股异动 | 白鸽在线今早冲高12%后倒跌，昨日股价遭遇断崖式闪崩72%，公司撇清“暴雷”传闻

11-12 09:40

$风语筑(603466)$ 一个做规划馆业务的公司，用机器人训练的三维空间资产做第二增长曲线的炒作，炒作方（不一定是公司本身）的良心不会痛吗？

11-11 11:20

$招商银行(600036)$ 费劲涨两毛稳住会死吗？

11-11 11:07

骗鬼吧你们就，在这个行业里泡过的人都知道，这行的科技含量就是零

研报掘金丨浙商证券：首予风语筑“买入”评级，三维空间打开业务新边界

11-09

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 不能对你有太多期待

11-04

$海康威视(002415)$ 太猥琐了

11-03

$海康威视(002415)$ 别再划拉下去了

11-03

$招商银行(600036)$ 看看长江电力，你不该落后它呀。

10-27

真是了不起的法律啊

阿里巴巴起诉美国国防部取得初步胜利法院叫停相关禁令

10-13

又臭又长观点陈腐的文章可以不写

上市估值或超2万亿美元！史上最大、最荒谬的IPO来了

10-08

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 你没有底线这件事具象化了

09-30

哈哈哈哈，谁还信房地产谁就是最绿韭菜

港股直击｜内房股重挫，万科企业大跌9%，融创中国、绿城中国跌7%

09-11

就算加息，又能咋地？

美联储决议“最后拼图”今夜揭晓！8月CPI或达3.4%，加息概率现已飙破73%

07-29

我理你个鬼

美联储决议前夜：这一次，华尔街真的猜不透了

07-20

回归正常

港股直击 | 智谱跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元；MINIMAX跌超10%，股价跌破200港元

07-14

$美光科技(MU)$ 拉胯

06-29

吃饱了撑的吗？

三星、SK海力士、美光在美遭集体诉讼，涉嫌操纵内存价格

05-28

$ST华谊(300027)$ 在你们创业板IPO第一天，我就知道你们是来圈钱的，今天才被打回原形，还是晚了，这类公司这类人群，应该更早被甄别出来。

05-25

你们累不累啊？大家都懒得叼你们这摊烂泥了

伊媒称伊美尚未达成谅解备忘录，鲁比奥则称协议仍可能于周一签署

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n禾赛（02525）跌近4% 美银下调其2026/2027财年出货量预测\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086022552\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a93586c3b023ec6ebfed568990555c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">金吾财讯 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-11-12 10:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>金吾财讯 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSAI\">禾赛</a>（02525）股价受压下行，截至发稿，报14.47港元，跌3.98%，成交额8040.57万港元。消息面上，美银研报指，禾赛第三财季实现营收11亿元人民币（下同），按年增长34%，较上季增长24%。毛利率为41%，高于该行预期的39.5%；这主要得益于产品结构的优化－高于平均售价（ASP）激光雷达的贡献占比提升，同时割草机产品的出货量有所下降。净利为8100万元人民币，较去年同期下降69%，但较上季增长14%。若剔除2025年第三财季的一次性收益影响，2026年第三财季的盈利实际上实现了14%的按年增长。该行指，禾赛给予第四财季营收指引为11-11.5亿元。结合最新动态，美银将禾赛2026/2027财年的激光雷达出货量预测平均下调4%，同时基本维持盈利预测不变。该行将其港股目标价由22港元调低4.5%至21港元，亦将美股目标价由23美元调低4.3%至22美元，重申“买入”评级。理由是公司持续获得 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ADAS（高级辅助驾驶系统）激光雷达订单，且新兴的SGI（软体与全球基础设施）业务商业化进程可望支撑其中期增长前景。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02525":1.98,"HSAI":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":26,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628409870586736,"gmtCreate":1794450142302,"gmtModify":1794450143946,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514005164997802","authorIdStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这都什么野鸡市场","listText":"这都什么野鸡市场","text":"这都什么野鸡市场","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628409870586736","repostId":"2682531089","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2682531089","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1794449192,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2682531089?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-11-12 10:06","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"港股异动 | 白鸽在线今早冲高12%后倒跌，昨日股价遭遇断崖式闪崩72%，公司撇清“暴雷”传闻","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2682531089","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，白鸽在线今早高开2.69%报42.0港元，早段一度冲高涨超12%，其后再度跳水、自42.56港元直落至35.96港元、跌12.08%。对此，白鸽在线称，公司、控股股东及旗下成员与上述实体或平台不存在任何股权、管理、业务合作或资金往来，涂锦波等人也未在其中担任任何职务。据悉，白鸽在线的紧急辟谣，主要是与近期“鲸鱼”平台暴雷有关。此前红星资本局曾报道，相关工作人员回复称，与白鸽在线鲸鱼平台经营公司厦门吉才神公司并无任何关系。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">智通财经APP获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02672\">白鸽在线</a>(02672)今早高开2.69%报42.0港元，早段一度冲高涨超12%，其后再度跳水。值得注意的是，公司昨日股价尾盘遭遇断崖式闪崩，单日跌幅高达72.08%，几乎抹去此前两个月积累的巨额涨幅。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c9e8870147306e92b1f4ffdb2b00ae0e\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息面上，白鸽在线昨晚发布公告称，董事会最近了解到，若干与未经许可融资平台有关联的实体在未经公司授权的情况下，使用或展示公司的名称、品牌标志及股份代号，并据称以公司或公司执行董事、董事长兼首席执行官涂锦波的名义发布或展示文件，这可能让人误以为该等实体与公司存在关联关系。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对此，白鸽在线称，公司、控股股东及旗下成员与上述实体或平台不存在任何股权、管理、业务合作或资金往来，涂锦波等人也未在其中担任任何职务。并表示向厦门、深圳公安及金融监管机构报案。据悉，白鸽在线的紧急辟谣，主要是与近期“鲸鱼”平台暴雷有关。此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600367\">红星</a>资本局曾报道，相关工作人员回复称，与白鸽在线鲸鱼平台经营公司厦门吉才神公司并无任何关系。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股异动 | 白鸽在线今早冲高12%后倒跌，昨日股价遭遇断崖式闪崩72%，公司撇清“暴雷”传闻</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1522057.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28063b3b0ec8d9e63dd4466a3407c07f","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK1195":"保险经纪商","VXUS":"国际股票ETF-Vanguard","KCAI":"KraneShares China Alpha Index ETF","BK4588":"碎股","02672":"白鸽在线"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1522057.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2682531089","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，白鸽在线(02672)今早高开2.69%报42.0港元，早段一度冲高涨超12%，其后再度跳水。值得注意的是，公司昨日股价尾盘遭遇断崖式闪崩，单日跌幅高达72.08%，几乎抹去此前两个月积累的巨额涨幅。消息面上，白鸽在线昨晚发布公告称，董事会最近了解到，若干与未经许可融资平台有关联的实体在未经公司授权的情况下，使用或展示公司的名称、品牌标志及股份代号，并据称以公司或公司执行董事、董事长兼首席执行官涂锦波的名义发布或展示文件，这可能让人误以为该等实体与公司存在关联关系。对此，白鸽在线称，公司、控股股东及旗下成员与上述实体或平台不存在任何股权、管理、业务合作或资金往来，涂锦波等人也未在其中担任任何职务。并表示向厦门、深圳公安及金融监管机构报案。据悉，白鸽在线的紧急辟谣，主要是与近期“鲸鱼”平台暴雷有关。此前红星资本局曾报道，相关工作人员回复称，与白鸽在线鲸鱼平台经营公司厦门吉才神公司并无任何关系。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"KCAI":1.5,"VXUS":1.5,"02672":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":15,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628399716774072,"gmtCreate":1794447625839,"gmtModify":1794447628079,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514005164997802","authorIdStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603466\">$风语筑(603466)$ </a> 一个做规划馆业务的公司，用机器人训练的三维空间资产做第二增长曲线的炒作，炒作方（不一定是公司本身）的良心不会痛吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603466\">$风语筑(603466)$ </a> 一个做规划馆业务的公司，用机器人训练的三维空间资产做第二增长曲线的炒作，炒作方（不一定是公司本身）的良心不会痛吗？","text":"$风语筑(603466)$ 一个做规划馆业务的公司，用机器人训练的三维空间资产做第二增长曲线的炒作，炒作方（不一定是公司本身）的良心不会痛吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628399716774072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":19,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628070418116688,"gmtCreate":1794367220737,"gmtModify":1794367222727,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514005164997802","authorIdStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">$招商银行(600036)$ </a> 费劲涨两毛稳住会死吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">$招商银行(600036)$ </a> 费劲涨两毛稳住会死吗？","text":"$招商银行(600036)$ 费劲涨两毛稳住会死吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628070418116688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628066923685304,"gmtCreate":1794366470151,"gmtModify":1794366472253,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514005164997802","authorIdStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"骗鬼吧你们就，在这个行业里泡过的人都知道，这行的科技含量就是零","listText":"骗鬼吧你们就，在这个行业里泡过的人都知道，这行的科技含量就是零","text":"骗鬼吧你们就，在这个行业里泡过的人都知道，这行的科技含量就是零","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628066923685304","repostId":"2682369089","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2682369089","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1794295638,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2682369089?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-11-10 15:27","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"研报掘金丨浙商证券：首予风语筑“买入”评级，三维空间打开业务新边界","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2682369089","media":"格隆汇","summary":"浙商证券研报指出，风语筑物理AI拓展成长空间，三维空间打开业务新边界。公司年中投资松应并设立控股子公司风应，业务向物理AI仿真环境、空间合成数据及训练基础设施延伸，三维空间资产开发拓展第二增长曲线。数","content":"<html><body>浙商证券研报指出，风语筑物理AI拓展成长空间，三维空间打开业务新边界。公司年中投资松应并设立控股子公司风应，业务向物理AI仿真环境、空间合成数据及训练基础设施延伸，三维空间资产开发拓展第二增长曲线。数字展示由空间建设向内容运营延伸，科技展陈拓展新增订单，三维空间资产向可训练环境转化，物理AI拓展数据应用边界，年中合作推进至合资经营与任务验证，产业位置偏向中长期仿真平台。该行预计2026-2028年公司营业收入分别为16.70/20.06/23.87亿元，归母净利润分别为1.36/1.75/2.38亿元。主业项目交付、内容生产提效及历史应收款清收支持盈利修复，松应合作推动公司拓展物理AI业务。综合考虑主业盈利修复、三维空间及物理AI等新业务成长空间及商业化进度，采用PE估值法，按2026年11月6日收盘价计算，公司2026-2027年对应PE分别为59.75/46.32倍，可比公司同期PE均值分别为136.81/90.26倍。首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。</body></html>","source":"live_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>浙商证券研报指出，风语筑物理AI拓展成长空间，三维空间打开业务新边界。公司年中投资松应并设立控股子公司风应，业务向物理AI仿真环境、空间合成数据及训练基础设施延伸，三维空间资产开发拓展第二增长曲线。数字展示由空间建设向内容运营延伸，科技展陈拓展新增订单，三维空间资产向可训练环境转化，物理AI拓展数据应用边界，年中合作推进至合资经营与任务验证，产业位置偏向中长期仿真平台。该行预计2026-2028年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"601878":"浙商证券","603466":"风语筑","BK0211":"体育","BK0276":"资本市场","BK0228":"文化艺术"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2682369089","content_text":"浙商证券研报指出，风语筑物理AI拓展成长空间，三维空间打开业务新边界。公司年中投资松应并设立控股子公司风应，业务向物理AI仿真环境、空间合成数据及训练基础设施延伸，三维空间资产开发拓展第二增长曲线。数字展示由空间建设向内容运营延伸，科技展陈拓展新增订单，三维空间资产向可训练环境转化，物理AI拓展数据应用边界，年中合作推进至合资经营与任务验证，产业位置偏向中长期仿真平台。该行预计2026-2028年公司营业收入分别为16.70/20.06/23.87亿元，归母净利润分别为1.36/1.75/2.38亿元。主业项目交付、内容生产提效及历史应收款清收支持盈利修复，松应合作推动公司拓展物理AI业务。综合考虑主业盈利修复、三维空间及物理AI等新业务成长空间及商业化进度，采用PE估值法，按2026年11月6日收盘价计算，公司2026-2027年对应PE分别为59.75/46.32倍，可比公司同期PE均值分别为136.81/90.26倍。首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"601878":1.5,"603466":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":44,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":627414598059416,"gmtCreate":1794192571987,"gmtModify":1794192573920,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514005164997802","authorIdStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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别再划拉下去了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/625345401615160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":625345019941088,"gmtCreate":1793687259865,"gmtModify":1793687262241,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514005164997802","authorIdStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">$招商银行(600036)$ </a> 看看长江电力，你不该落后它呀。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">$招商银行(600036)$ </a> 看看长江电力，你不该落后它呀。","text":"$招商银行(600036)$ 看看长江电力，你不该落后它呀。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/625345019941088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622749138813648,"gmtCreate":1793077851593,"gmtModify":1793078191094,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514005164997802","authorIdStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"真是了不起的法律啊","listText":"真是了不起的法律啊","text":"真是了不起的法律啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622749138813648","repostId":"2678404141","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2678404141","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1793073068,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2678404141?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-10-27 11:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"阿里巴巴起诉美国国防部取得初步胜利 法院叫停相关禁令","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2678404141","media":"格隆汇","summary":"据彭博，阿里巴巴集团在美国法院赢得了一项裁决，该公司此前对美国国防部将其列为“中国军方关联企业”的黑名单提出了异议。美国加州圣何塞的一名联邦法官于当地时间周一下达裁定，要求特朗普政府停止执行一项禁令，","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据彭博，阿里巴巴集团在美国法院赢得了一项裁决，该公司此前对美国国防部将其列为“中国军方关联企业”的黑名单提出了异议。美国加州圣何塞的一名联邦法官于当地时间周一下达裁定，要求特朗普政府停止执行一项禁令，该禁令禁止五角大楼与任何为阿里巴巴集团进行“游说活动”的公司开展业务往来。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 阿里巴巴曾于6月9日在港交所公告，公司注意到美国国防部已将阿里巴巴集团列入中国军工企业名单。美国国防部不得直接或间接从中国军工企业名单上实体采购商品、服务或技术。</p></body></html>","source":"live_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里巴巴起诉美国国防部取得初步胜利 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href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2161e8ddb469de4171b1fb09459c6b","relate_stocks":{"89988":"阿里巴巴-WR","LU2257852520.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Asia Growth A (acc) SGD","LU0051755006.USD":"摩根大通中国A (dist)","LU0261950983.USD":"FIDELITY ASIAN SPECIAL SITUATIONS \"A\" ACC","LU1201861165.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity PA SGD","LU2294711473.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS CHINA EQUITY \"C\" (HKD) ACC","LU0572939691.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 SGD","LU2226246903.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT4\" (HKD) ACC","LU0455707207.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  CHINA INNOVATION \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","LU0106959298.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - EMERGING MARKETS SUSTAINABLE LEADERS (USD) \"P\" (USD) 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\"AA\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2678404141","content_text":"据彭博，阿里巴巴集团在美国法院赢得了一项裁决，该公司此前对美国国防部将其列为“中国军方关联企业”的黑名单提出了异议。美国加州圣何塞的一名联邦法官于当地时间周一下达裁定，要求特朗普政府停止执行一项禁令，该禁令禁止五角大楼与任何为阿里巴巴集团进行“游说活动”的公司开展业务往来。 阿里巴巴曾于6月9日在港交所公告，公司注意到美国国防部已将阿里巴巴集团列入中国军工企业名单。美国国防部不得直接或间接从中国军工企业名单上实体采购商品、服务或技术。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.6,"09988":1.94,"CXSE":0.6,"FDNI":0.6,"LDEM":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"BKF":0.6,"KWEB":0.6,"HBBD.SI":0.6,"BABA":1.94}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":617903779669176,"gmtCreate":1791874675744,"gmtModify":1791874677805,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514005164997802","authorIdStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"又臭又长观点陈腐的文章可以不写","listText":"又臭又长观点陈腐的文章可以不写","text":"又臭又长观点陈腐的文章可以不写","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/617903779669176","repostId":"1116221974","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116221974","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1791874034,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1116221974?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-10-13 14:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"上市估值或超2万亿美元！史上最大、最荒谬的IPO来了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116221974","media":"妙投APP","summary":"宇树的估值争议还没平息，一个更惊人的IPO估值已经摆上台面。据媒体报道，其投资者期待的上市估值可能达到2万亿美元，超过SpaceX的1.77万亿美元，堪称史上最大IPO。但就在市场期待这场超级IPO时，独立金融研究机构New Constructs直接泼来冷水。10月6日，该机构直接开炮，称这是“2026年最荒谬的IPO”，且这是“对投资者判断力的一次前所未有的考验”。此外，美国联邦贸易委员会近期已针对潜在消费者伤害问题，对Anthropic和OpenAI启动调查。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>宇树的估值争议还没平息，一个更惊人的IPO估值已经摆上台面。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">主角是Claude背后的大模型公司Anthropic。据媒体报道，其投资者期待的上市估值可能达到2万亿美元，超过SpaceX的1.77万亿美元，堪称史上最大IPO。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但就在市场期待这场超级IPO时，独立金融研究机构New Constructs直接泼来冷水。10月6日，该机构直接开炮，称这是“2026年最荒谬的IPO”，且这是“对投资者判断力的一次前所未有的考验”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在New Constructs看来，Anthropic是一家“没有可行商业模式”的公司，对其估值约为1500亿美元，较其2万亿美元的目标估值低约93%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同一家公司，两种估值，相差十多倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么，这场被称为“最荒谬”的IPO，到底贵在哪里？</p><h2 id=\"id_1084519499\">估值全靠ARR</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">资本市场向来痴迷于高增长叙事，只有高增长，才有高估值。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>支撑Anthropic的2万亿估值叙事在于ARR（年度经常性收入）高增长</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在唱多者的眼中，Anthropic年化收入从2025年末约90亿美元，飙到2026年5月的470亿美元、7月的650亿美元。纽约时报预计，按当前增速今年年化收入将超过1000亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一年十倍，史上最快。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">ARR（年度经常性收入），一般是指取期末或当期加权平均的月度经常性收入（MRR）直接乘以12。这个统计口径和审计过的报表收入，是两回事。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">举个极端点的例子，这就像把奶茶店排队最凶那一小时的流水乘以全年营业时间，然后告诉投资人这家店有可能年入千万。排队一小时，不代表排队一整年。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>因此，我们不要只看高增长，还要看能否持续高增长。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由于SaaS与大模型都有订阅模式，资本市场用传统企业级SaaS的估值框架（ARR）来套在AI大模型企业。但这两类的商业模式有所不同。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一般而言，头部SaaS企业的订阅营收主要源自长期合约，且存量客户的锁定率极高。以Workday为例，其核心人力资本管理及财务系统合同多为3到5年的不可撤销协议，客户仅在遭遇极个别严重违约情形时方可解约。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，AI大模型厂商的年度经常性收入（ARR）对业务高峰及模型版本迭代高度敏感。其商业逻辑多基于“按Token实际用量计费”或“月度无绑定订阅”，导致传统意义上那种三年期锁定的承诺性ARR占比偏低。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">只有当转换成本、网络效应或生态锁定了客户，让续费成为惯性、让流失成为小概率事件时，ARR才是可估值的资产；否则它只是“今年碰巧收到的钱”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，<strong>在ARR的估值框架中，留存也很重要</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于Anthropic而言，2026年的ARR出现了爆发式增长，这个部分的增量能否有较高的留存率是个问号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管，今年5月，Anthropic CFO Krishna Rao在一档播客中说，公司净收入留存率（NRR）高达500%。2026年一季度贡献300亿美元ARR的那批客户，一年前只贡献了20亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，大模型厂商那么多，并没有非Claude、ChatGPT不可的地步。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前，大模型能力差距大，客户离不开Anthropic；现在，客户自研模型成熟到可以替代。比如：微软将内部使用 Claude 的年化支出从峰值超 10 亿美元削减超三分之一；Meta 自研 Muse Code（基于 Muse Spark 模型）开始分流内部 Claude Code 用量，内部用户已从约 6 万降至约 3 万，</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一方面，据TickerTrends 统计，截至2026年09月24日，Anthropic公司层面ARR约768亿美元，但9单月环比仅+1.8%，显著低于2026上半年30%-50%的月环比水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ba46bbb4e95d2eba0281cab768abadc\" alt=\"（图片来源：TickerTrends）\" title=\"（图片来源：TickerTrends）\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"626\"/><span>（图片来源：TickerTrends）</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，<strong>Anthropic的ARR持续且增长的确定性，并没有那么强。况且，ARR数据的披露并不在招股书里，没有经过审计，也不透明。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但资本市场却在用这个数据讲叙事，聊估值。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们来算两笔账：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1.按2万亿美元估值、650亿美元年化收入算，市销率约31倍，有点贵，但还能用“超级成长股”的话术圆过去。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2.按2万亿美元估值、2025年实际营收46亿美元算，市销率超过430倍。这个数字，不在任何估值体系里，都是市梦率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，Anthropic在营收披露上也有所不同，650亿美元并不是Anthropic真实收入，还没有剔除给云平台分发的提成。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据招股说明书，2025年Anthropic的云平台销售额为21.6亿美元，占全年营收的47%；公司支付给云平台的分成为3.51亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">营收高增长，但不一定有高质量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>因此，妙投认为若用ARR的估值方式来看2万亿的估值，就存在泡沫。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1080890392\">持续亏损才是最大的问题</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">用于支撑高估值的数据披露不透明，但更为核心的还是这家企业持续亏损且处于扩大的趋势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也是New Constructs觉得Anthropic没有可行的商业模式，只值1500亿的重要原因。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">要知道，<strong>商业模式跑通的最基本的是，能盈利</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管Anthropic 2025年营收从2024年的约4亿美元增长至46亿美元，但报告净经营亏损却从30亿美元扩大至80亿美元，整体净亏损高达420亿美元（其中，340亿美元与可转换工具重估有关）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据招股说明书，Anthropic预期 2026 财年仍将录得净亏损，只是 Q2 起季度层面开始有调整后营业利润转正。此前，媒体报道，Anthropic预计2026年第二季度实现营收109亿美元，较一季度48亿美元增长超一倍，同期预计实现营业利润5.59亿美元，扭亏为盈。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，Anthropic还有约5180亿美元的云计算、算力和基础设施合同义务，其中约80%不可取消，约4140亿美元的开支是锁死的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">大客户随时可以削减支出和订阅，收入下降而成本不会同步下降。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>也就是说，Anthropic加了经营的杠杆。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也意味着，Anthropic扭亏只剩下一条路，就是收入必须按照指数曲线兑现，连续五年保持高增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但，据TickerTrends 统计，截至 2026-09-24，Anthropic公司层面ARR约768亿美元，但 9 月单月环比仅+1.8%,显著低于2026上半年30%-50%的月环比水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>妙投认为，如果按照最近的ARR增长表现，未来几年公司未必能覆盖5180亿美元的资本开支，会陷入持续亏损的情形。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">ARR增长停滞、公司持续亏损，那Anthropic的商业模式也就没跑通，2万亿的估值就被明显高估。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据不完全统计，万亿美元俱乐部的企业目前来看只有SpaceX，大部分万亿美元市值的企业已经盈利了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f355b145d49758d360041eb3e5d59da\" alt=\"（数据来源：妙投统计）\" title=\"（数据来源：妙投统计）\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"516\"/><span>（数据来源：妙投统计）</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">除财务隐患外，Anthropic招股书中将AI安全视为关键风险点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在这份长达261页的招股书中，风险因素章节占据约80页，远超介绍公司业务的48页。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">披露内容涵盖AI可能引发灾难性乃至生存级威胁、拒绝关闭、隐瞒或操纵信息、实施类勒索行为，以及模型能力超越现有安全评估范围等情景。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，美国联邦贸易委员会近期已针对潜在消费者伤害问题，对Anthropic和OpenAI启动调查。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由此可见，纯模型AI企业的长期商业可行性，不仅受制于营收与算力成本，更取决于未来的责任界定制度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">若开发者或大模型厂商需直接承担AI产品导致的重大损害，其潜在的法律成本或将重塑整个商业模式。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一个无法持续盈利的企业，也不会值2万亿市值。</p><h2 id=\"id_828488179\">更大的风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">好看的数字走小道，难看的数字走官道。招股书侧重风险，面对媒体又放满利好。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Anthropic，玩的就是IPO披露的不对称。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，妙投发现，相较于2万亿的估值，AI投资者却以ARR的增长为投资锚点，风险可就更大了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上周四科技股出现下挫，部分原因正是投资者试图将OpenAI的数字调整为可与Anthropic直接比较的口径后，得出了更低的估算值，引发市场对OpenAI营收增速的担忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普画K线也就算了，口径调整也对资本市场造成了实质冲击。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">要知道，这口径调整，与粉饰报表没什么本质区别，只是换了一种说法而已。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>一个不透明的数字，一个可以调整口径的ARR却能够作为AI投资者的圣杯，这才是最大风险点。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当下，资本市场直接跟踪的主要是Anthropic与OpenAI的ARR增量，但这个数据是不透明的，不能完全反映客观的经营现状。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">很多投资者、投资机构因持仓AI，而选择性忽视高增长叙事背后的高估值泡沫，不希望AI梦破碎。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，Anthropic高增长的叙事以及IPO，已经成为AI宏大叙事的重要一环。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">箭在弦上，不得不发。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">只有Anthropic融到更多的资金，缓解经营压力，才能去兑现5180亿美元的付款承诺。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">若Anthropic等AI企业日后未能履行上述付款义务，云厂商的数据中心投资回报及偿债能力或将承压；反之，数据中心建设若趋缓，模型公司获取的算力资源亦可能紧缩。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">倘若终端AI企业的营收与利润难以覆盖算力成本，风险便可能经由模型商、云服务提供商向信贷市场蔓延，进而刺破整个AI产业链的泡沫。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">现在的Anthropic也只能孤注一掷。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1605859317949","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>上市估值或超2万亿美元！史上最大、最荒谬的IPO来了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n上市估值或超2万亿美元！史上最大、最荒谬的IPO来了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-10-13 14:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JfyoOYZhqEIUvxymoyf5Nw><strong>妙投APP</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>宇树的估值争议还没平息，一个更惊人的IPO估值已经摆上台面。主角是Claude背后的大模型公司Anthropic。据媒体报道，其投资者期待的上市估值可能达到2万亿美元，超过SpaceX的1.77万亿美元，堪称史上最大IPO。但就在市场期待这场超级IPO时，独立金融研究机构New Constructs直接泼来冷水。10月6日，该机构直接开炮，称这是“2026年最荒谬的IPO”，且这是“对投资者判断力...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JfyoOYZhqEIUvxymoyf5Nw\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ea440b04f702f50d117cc3380ae871","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JfyoOYZhqEIUvxymoyf5Nw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116221974","content_text":"宇树的估值争议还没平息，一个更惊人的IPO估值已经摆上台面。主角是Claude背后的大模型公司Anthropic。据媒体报道，其投资者期待的上市估值可能达到2万亿美元，超过SpaceX的1.77万亿美元，堪称史上最大IPO。但就在市场期待这场超级IPO时，独立金融研究机构New Constructs直接泼来冷水。10月6日，该机构直接开炮，称这是“2026年最荒谬的IPO”，且这是“对投资者判断力的一次前所未有的考验”。在New Constructs看来，Anthropic是一家“没有可行商业模式”的公司，对其估值约为1500亿美元，较其2万亿美元的目标估值低约93%。同一家公司，两种估值，相差十多倍。那么，这场被称为“最荒谬”的IPO，到底贵在哪里？估值全靠ARR资本市场向来痴迷于高增长叙事，只有高增长，才有高估值。支撑Anthropic的2万亿估值叙事在于ARR（年度经常性收入）高增长。在唱多者的眼中，Anthropic年化收入从2025年末约90亿美元，飙到2026年5月的470亿美元、7月的650亿美元。纽约时报预计，按当前增速今年年化收入将超过1000亿美元。一年十倍，史上最快。ARR（年度经常性收入），一般是指取期末或当期加权平均的月度经常性收入（MRR）直接乘以12。这个统计口径和审计过的报表收入，是两回事。举个极端点的例子，这就像把奶茶店排队最凶那一小时的流水乘以全年营业时间，然后告诉投资人这家店有可能年入千万。排队一小时，不代表排队一整年。因此，我们不要只看高增长，还要看能否持续高增长。由于SaaS与大模型都有订阅模式，资本市场用传统企业级SaaS的估值框架（ARR）来套在AI大模型企业。但这两类的商业模式有所不同。一般而言，头部SaaS企业的订阅营收主要源自长期合约，且存量客户的锁定率极高。以Workday为例，其核心人力资本管理及财务系统合同多为3到5年的不可撤销协议，客户仅在遭遇极个别严重违约情形时方可解约。然而，AI大模型厂商的年度经常性收入（ARR）对业务高峰及模型版本迭代高度敏感。其商业逻辑多基于“按Token实际用量计费”或“月度无绑定订阅”，导致传统意义上那种三年期锁定的承诺性ARR占比偏低。只有当转换成本、网络效应或生态锁定了客户，让续费成为惯性、让流失成为小概率事件时，ARR才是可估值的资产；否则它只是“今年碰巧收到的钱”。因此，在ARR的估值框架中，留存也很重要。对于Anthropic而言，2026年的ARR出现了爆发式增长，这个部分的增量能否有较高的留存率是个问号。尽管，今年5月，Anthropic CFO Krishna Rao在一档播客中说，公司净收入留存率（NRR）高达500%。2026年一季度贡献300亿美元ARR的那批客户，一年前只贡献了20亿美元。不过，大模型厂商那么多，并没有非Claude、ChatGPT不可的地步。此前，大模型能力差距大，客户离不开Anthropic；现在，客户自研模型成熟到可以替代。比如：微软将内部使用 Claude 的年化支出从峰值超 10 亿美元削减超三分之一；Meta 自研 Muse Code（基于 Muse Spark 模型）开始分流内部 Claude Code 用量，内部用户已从约 6 万降至约 3 万，另一方面，据TickerTrends 统计，截至2026年09月24日，Anthropic公司层面ARR约768亿美元，但9单月环比仅+1.8%，显著低于2026上半年30%-50%的月环比水平。（图片来源：TickerTrends）因此，Anthropic的ARR持续且增长的确定性，并没有那么强。况且，ARR数据的披露并不在招股书里，没有经过审计，也不透明。但资本市场却在用这个数据讲叙事，聊估值。我们来算两笔账：1.按2万亿美元估值、650亿美元年化收入算，市销率约31倍，有点贵，但还能用“超级成长股”的话术圆过去。2.按2万亿美元估值、2025年实际营收46亿美元算，市销率超过430倍。这个数字，不在任何估值体系里，都是市梦率。值得注意的是，Anthropic在营收披露上也有所不同，650亿美元并不是Anthropic真实收入，还没有剔除给云平台分发的提成。根据招股说明书，2025年Anthropic的云平台销售额为21.6亿美元，占全年营收的47%；公司支付给云平台的分成为3.51亿美元。营收高增长，但不一定有高质量。因此，妙投认为若用ARR的估值方式来看2万亿的估值，就存在泡沫。持续亏损才是最大的问题用于支撑高估值的数据披露不透明，但更为核心的还是这家企业持续亏损且处于扩大的趋势。这也是New Constructs觉得Anthropic没有可行的商业模式，只值1500亿的重要原因。要知道，商业模式跑通的最基本的是，能盈利。尽管Anthropic 2025年营收从2024年的约4亿美元增长至46亿美元，但报告净经营亏损却从30亿美元扩大至80亿美元，整体净亏损高达420亿美元（其中，340亿美元与可转换工具重估有关）。根据招股说明书，Anthropic预期 2026 财年仍将录得净亏损，只是 Q2 起季度层面开始有调整后营业利润转正。此前，媒体报道，Anthropic预计2026年第二季度实现营收109亿美元，较一季度48亿美元增长超一倍，同期预计实现营业利润5.59亿美元，扭亏为盈。值得注意的是，Anthropic还有约5180亿美元的云计算、算力和基础设施合同义务，其中约80%不可取消，约4140亿美元的开支是锁死的。大客户随时可以削减支出和订阅，收入下降而成本不会同步下降。也就是说，Anthropic加了经营的杠杆。这也意味着，Anthropic扭亏只剩下一条路，就是收入必须按照指数曲线兑现，连续五年保持高增长。但，据TickerTrends 统计，截至 2026-09-24，Anthropic公司层面ARR约768亿美元，但 9 月单月环比仅+1.8%,显著低于2026上半年30%-50%的月环比水平。妙投认为，如果按照最近的ARR增长表现，未来几年公司未必能覆盖5180亿美元的资本开支，会陷入持续亏损的情形。ARR增长停滞、公司持续亏损，那Anthropic的商业模式也就没跑通，2万亿的估值就被明显高估。据不完全统计，万亿美元俱乐部的企业目前来看只有SpaceX，大部分万亿美元市值的企业已经盈利了。（数据来源：妙投统计）除财务隐患外，Anthropic招股书中将AI安全视为关键风险点。在这份长达261页的招股书中，风险因素章节占据约80页，远超介绍公司业务的48页。披露内容涵盖AI可能引发灾难性乃至生存级威胁、拒绝关闭、隐瞒或操纵信息、实施类勒索行为，以及模型能力超越现有安全评估范围等情景。此外，美国联邦贸易委员会近期已针对潜在消费者伤害问题，对Anthropic和OpenAI启动调查。由此可见，纯模型AI企业的长期商业可行性，不仅受制于营收与算力成本，更取决于未来的责任界定制度。若开发者或大模型厂商需直接承担AI产品导致的重大损害，其潜在的法律成本或将重塑整个商业模式。一个无法持续盈利的企业，也不会值2万亿市值。更大的风险好看的数字走小道，难看的数字走官道。招股书侧重风险，面对媒体又放满利好。Anthropic，玩的就是IPO披露的不对称。此外，妙投发现，相较于2万亿的估值，AI投资者却以ARR的增长为投资锚点，风险可就更大了。上周四科技股出现下挫，部分原因正是投资者试图将OpenAI的数字调整为可与Anthropic直接比较的口径后，得出了更低的估算值，引发市场对OpenAI营收增速的担忧。特朗普画K线也就算了，口径调整也对资本市场造成了实质冲击。要知道，这口径调整，与粉饰报表没什么本质区别，只是换了一种说法而已。一个不透明的数字，一个可以调整口径的ARR却能够作为AI投资者的圣杯，这才是最大风险点。当下，资本市场直接跟踪的主要是Anthropic与OpenAI的ARR增量，但这个数据是不透明的，不能完全反映客观的经营现状。很多投资者、投资机构因持仓AI，而选择性忽视高增长叙事背后的高估值泡沫，不希望AI梦破碎。此外，Anthropic高增长的叙事以及IPO，已经成为AI宏大叙事的重要一环。箭在弦上，不得不发。只有Anthropic融到更多的资金，缓解经营压力，才能去兑现5180亿美元的付款承诺。若Anthropic等AI企业日后未能履行上述付款义务，云厂商的数据中心投资回报及偿债能力或将承压；反之，数据中心建设若趋缓，模型公司获取的算力资源亦可能紧缩。倘若终端AI企业的营收与利润难以覆盖算力成本，风险便可能经由模型商、云服务提供商向信贷市场蔓延，进而刺破整个AI产业链的泡沫。现在的Anthropic也只能孤注一掷。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":616124842447200,"gmtCreate":1791440297836,"gmtModify":1791440300136,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514005164997802","authorIdStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ </a> 你没有底线这件事具象化了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ </a> 你没有底线这件事具象化了","text":"$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 你没有底线这件事具象化了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616124842447200","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":613225363935296,"gmtCreate":1790732400136,"gmtModify":1790732402010,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514005164997802","authorIdStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"哈哈哈哈，谁还信房地产谁就是最绿韭菜","listText":"哈哈哈哈，谁还信房地产谁就是最绿韭菜","text":"哈哈哈哈，谁还信房地产谁就是最绿韭菜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/613225363935296","repostId":"1142535564","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142535564","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1790732244,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142535564?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-09-30 09:37","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股直击｜内房股重挫，万科企业大跌9%，融创中国、绿城中国跌7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142535564","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"内房股重挫，万科企业大跌 9%，融创中国、绿城中国跌 7%，龙湖集团跌 6%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">内房股重挫，万科企业大跌 9%，融创中国、绿城中国跌 7%，龙湖集团跌 6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息面上，财政部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局明确，自10月1日起实施居民购房贷款贴息政策，政策期暂定1年。本次贴息政策聚焦首套刚需，单户所购住房建筑面积不超过120平方米、购房价格不超过150万元。符合条件的首套住房商业性个人住房贷款，可享年化1个百分点贴息，贴息期限最长5年，相当于优惠利率的三分之一；以100万元长期限贷款为例，最多可累计减少付息近5万元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国盛证券指出，政策整体属于面向特定刚需群体的精准托底，而非全面刺激。效果看，贴息政策有望降低刚需购房门槛，推动部分观望需求在一年政策窗口内提前释放，对低总价、中小户型的新房和二手房交易形成一定支撑，对低房价城市、县域及大城市远郊的带动将更为明显。不过考虑到“首套、120平以下、150万以下”三大硬性条件，对高房价城市核心区域及全国房地产需求的拉动可能相对有限。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff14b750b89aca4273bb0fc52536bf20\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1074\" tg-height=\"654\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-09-30 09:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">内房股重挫，万科企业大跌 9%，融创中国、绿城中国跌 7%，龙湖集团跌 6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息面上，财政部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局明确，自10月1日起实施居民购房贷款贴息政策，政策期暂定1年。本次贴息政策聚焦首套刚需，单户所购住房建筑面积不超过120平方米、购房价格不超过150万元。符合条件的首套住房商业性个人住房贷款，可享年化1个百分点贴息，贴息期限最长5年，相当于优惠利率的三分之一；以100万元长期限贷款为例，最多可累计减少付息近5万元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国盛证券指出，政策整体属于面向特定刚需群体的精准托底，而非全面刺激。效果看，贴息政策有望降低刚需购房门槛，推动部分观望需求在一年政策窗口内提前释放，对低总价、中小户型的新房和二手房交易形成一定支撑，对低房价城市、县域及大城市远郊的带动将更为明显。不过考虑到“首套、120平以下、150万以下”三大硬性条件，对高房价城市核心区域及全国房地产需求的拉动可能相对有限。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff14b750b89aca4273bb0fc52536bf20\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1074\" tg-height=\"654\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06998f098ca391e0a64edfd0497ec5c5","relate_stocks":{"02202":"万科企业","03900":"绿城中国","01918":"融创中国"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142535564","content_text":"内房股重挫，万科企业大跌 9%，融创中国、绿城中国跌 7%，龙湖集团跌 6%。消息面上，财政部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局明确，自10月1日起实施居民购房贷款贴息政策，政策期暂定1年。本次贴息政策聚焦首套刚需，单户所购住房建筑面积不超过120平方米、购房价格不超过150万元。符合条件的首套住房商业性个人住房贷款，可享年化1个百分点贴息，贴息期限最长5年，相当于优惠利率的三分之一；以100万元长期限贷款为例，最多可累计减少付息近5万元。国盛证券指出，政策整体属于面向特定刚需群体的精准托底，而非全面刺激。效果看，贴息政策有望降低刚需购房门槛，推动部分观望需求在一年政策窗口内提前释放，对低总价、中小户型的新房和二手房交易形成一定支撑，对低房价城市、县域及大城市远郊的带动将更为明显。不过考虑到“首套、120平以下、150万以下”三大硬性条件，对高房价城市核心区域及全国房地产需求的拉动可能相对有限。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02202":2,"01918":2,"03900":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606514957071096,"gmtCreate":1789098463455,"gmtModify":1789098465502,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514005164997802","authorIdStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"就算加息，又能咋地？","listText":"就算加息，又能咋地？","text":"就算加息，又能咋地？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606514957071096","repostId":"2666512931","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2666512931","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1789090205,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2666512931?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-09-11 09:30","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"美联储决议“最后拼图”今夜揭晓！8月CPI或达3.4%，加息概率现已飙破73%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2666512931","media":"智通财经","summary":"若道琼斯共识正确，报告将显示上月所有商品和服务价格环比上涨0.4%，年通胀率达3.4%。“目前，我们维持美联储9月FOMC会议不加息的预测。但若8月CPI数据，尤其是与PCE相关的分项意外上行，将显著增加下周政策收紧的可能性。”美联储主席凯文·沃什已表示，货币政策方向依赖市场指标。“明天8月CPI报告出现重大意外，或与伊朗达成最后一刻协议，仍可能影响决策。”","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>9月11日，美国劳工统计局将于美东时间上午8:30(北京时间今夜20:30)公布8月消费者价格指数(CPI)报告，这份报告将是美联储下周利率决议前获得的最后一块通胀拼图。若道琼斯共识正确，报告将显示上月所有商品和服务价格环比上涨0.4%，年通胀率达3.4%。但剔除食品和能源价格后，核心通胀的环比和同比预期分别为0.2%和2.4%。</p><p>结合周四公布的生产者价格指数(PPI，衡量批发通胀的指标)，CPI将有助于美联储官员预判其首选通胀指标——个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数在9月底公布时的表现。</p><p>该数据预计也将在下周三联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的利率决策中占据重要分量，任何一个百分点的变化都可能意味着维持利率不变还是加息。</p><p>“9月FOMC决策最终取决于CPI数据……因为PCE的大部分分项源自CPI，”野村经济学家在报告中表示。“目前，我们维持美联储9月FOMC会议不加息的预测。但若8月CPI数据，尤其是与PCE相关的分项意外上行，将显著增加下周政策收紧的可能性。”</p><p>周四PPI数据发布后，根据芝商所FedWatch对期货价格的衡量，交易员将加息25个基点的概率提升至73%以上。</p><p>然而，预期一直波动不定，高度依赖数据及能源价格走势，这使得周五数据的利害关系更为重大。美联储主席凯文·沃什已表示，货币政策方向依赖市场指标。</p><p>“9月美联储决策在月初看来势均力敌。9月能源价格飙升可能在下周美联储会议时使天平偏向加息，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FITB\">五三银行</a>首席美国经济学家比尔·亚当斯表示。“明天8月CPI报告出现重大意外，或与伊朗达成最后一刻协议，仍可能影响决策。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储决议“最后拼图”今夜揭晓！8月CPI或达3.4%，加息概率现已飙破73%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储决议“最后拼图”今夜揭晓！8月CPI或达3.4%，加息概率现已飙破73%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-09-11 09:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1494773.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>9月11日，美国劳工统计局将于美东时间上午8:30(北京时间今夜20:30)公布8月消费者价格指数(CPI)报告，这份报告将是美联储下周利率决议前获得的最后一块通胀拼图。若道琼斯共识正确，报告将显示上月所有商品和服务价格环比上涨0.4%，年通胀率达3.4%。但剔除食品和能源价格后，核心通胀的环比和同比预期分别为0.2%和2.4%。结合周四公布的生产者价格指数(PPI，衡量批发通胀的指标)，CPI将...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1494773.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{"DBND":"DoubleLine Opportunistic Bond ETF","BUCK":"Simplify Treasury Option Income ETF","RAUS":"RACWI US ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","MYCN":"SPDR SSGA My2034 Corporate Bond 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16:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储决议前夜：这一次，华尔街真的猜不透了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196328231","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"过去，美联储召开议息会议前，市场通常早已对结果形成一致预期，但这一次却不同。两周前，市场普遍认为，美联储将在本次会议上继续维持利率于3.5%至3.75%区间不变。过去，美联储主席通常会通过调整声明措辞，或暗示未来会议更可能采取行动，来减少委员公开投下反对票。如果美联储意外宣布加息，则意味着政策立场发生明显转向。如果美联储选择加息，沃什给出的理由将直接影响市场走势。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去，美联储召开议息会议前，市场通常早已对结果形成一致预期，但这一次却不同。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">两周前，市场普遍认为，美联储将在本次会议上继续维持利率于3.5%至3.75%区间不变。多位美联储高层此前释放的信号也显示，只有在通胀重新走强的情况下才有必要加息。而6月公布的通胀数据低于预期，使市场一度认为，若需要进一步收紧政策，也更可能等到9月。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，上周美伊停火协议破裂、油价迅速上涨后，市场情绪开始发生变化。越来越多交易员开始押注7月加息，而这种预期又进一步推高了市场的加息定价，形成了“预期推动预期”的局面。周二，利率期货市场显示，美联储本周加息的概率约为三分之一，预测市场给出的概率则略低一些。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场之所以重新开始讨论7月加息，并非因为美联储官员释放了新的信号，而是投资者开始猜测，美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）是否会基于自己的判断推动一次“意外加息”。因此，这场会议越来越像是在猜测一位主席的决策逻辑，而非整个委员会的共识。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>一、最值得关注：利率决定本身</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果美联储维持利率不变，这仍然是最符合市场主流预期的结果。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">无论是6月偏温和的通胀数据，还是此前多位官员释放的政策信号，都支持继续观望。两周前，沃什在长达五小时的国会听证会上，也没有任何为加息提前铺路的表态。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">若最终按兵不动，市场将重点关注是否出现反对票。如果有委员支持加息，意味着委员会内部要求进一步收紧政策的声音正在增强。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去，美联储主席通常会通过调整声明措辞，或暗示未来会议更可能采取行动，来减少委员公开投下反对票。但沃什一直主张减少这种“前瞻性指引”，如果坚持这一做法，他可能更难避免内部意见分歧被公开。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果美联储意外宣布加息，则意味着政策立场发生明显转向。这不仅会削弱此前官员释放政策信号的可信度，也可能带来政治影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去一年，白宫一直强调美国通胀已受到控制、当前利率偏高。如果由特朗普提名的美联储主席推动加息，无疑将向市场传递完全相反的信息，也有助于打消外界关于沃什受白宫影响的质疑。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>二、沃什真正想传递什么？</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果选择加息，更大的意义或许在于释放一种政策态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什一直强调，要结束美国过去五年来持续高于2%目标的通胀局面。如果在前任主席选择等待的时候率先行动，将比任何公开讲话都更能体现其控制通胀的决心。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，这种策略也存在争议。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">纽约联储主席、FOMC副主席约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）本月早些时候明确表示，美联储的公信力来自于依据经济数据作出正确决策，而不是试图通过货币政策本身去塑造市场对央行的信任。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，即便真的加息，沃什也尚未解释，更高的利率将如何缓解当前的通胀压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他此前曾表示，对于油价等供给冲击，美联储短期内几乎无能为力；同时，他也认为，人工智能带来的生产率提升未来有望帮助压低物价。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>三、新闻发布会可能比决议更重要</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">无论最终是否加息，市场都将高度关注沃什如何解释这一决定。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去两个月，他不断强调恢复价格稳定，并多次表示，美联储必须为持续偏高的通胀负责。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果最终维持利率不变，市场最关心的问题将是：既然如此强调抗通胀，为何这次没有采取行动？未来又需要哪些条件才会促使美联储加息？相比上次会议，中东局势已经重新恶化，油价风险明显上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果美联储选择加息，沃什给出的理由将直接影响市场走势。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果他将加息描述为纠正过去长期未能实现2%通胀目标的第一步，市场可能会认为本轮加息周期才刚刚开始，一些分析人士甚至预计，长期美债收益率可能因此回落，因为投资者会相信美联储终于下定决心控制通胀。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但如果沃什强调，这只是针对当前局势的一次性应对措施，那么市场解读将相对温和，对未来政策路径的指引意义也会大打折扣。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国银行经济学家Stephen Juneau指出，如果美联储在通胀数据已经明显降温的背景下突然加息，却没有充分解释原因，市场可能会过度解读这一决定，甚至引发新的波动。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>焦点仍在9月</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">无论本周结果如何，都未必意味着未来政策方向已经确定。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">真正决定9月是否加息的，仍将是整个夏季公布的通胀数据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储官员此前已经给出明确判断：如果未来几个月通胀重新走强，9月加息的可能性将明显上升；如果通胀继续降温，美联储则有理由继续保持耐心，等待更多经济数据验证趋势。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储决议前夜：这一次，华尔街真的猜不透了</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储决议前夜：这一次，华尔街真的猜不透了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-29 16:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去，美联储召开议息会议前，市场通常早已对结果形成一致预期，但这一次却不同。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">两周前，市场普遍认为，美联储将在本次会议上继续维持利率于3.5%至3.75%区间不变。多位美联储高层此前释放的信号也显示，只有在通胀重新走强的情况下才有必要加息。而6月公布的通胀数据低于预期，使市场一度认为，若需要进一步收紧政策，也更可能等到9月。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，上周美伊停火协议破裂、油价迅速上涨后，市场情绪开始发生变化。越来越多交易员开始押注7月加息，而这种预期又进一步推高了市场的加息定价，形成了“预期推动预期”的局面。周二，利率期货市场显示，美联储本周加息的概率约为三分之一，预测市场给出的概率则略低一些。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场之所以重新开始讨论7月加息，并非因为美联储官员释放了新的信号，而是投资者开始猜测，美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）是否会基于自己的判断推动一次“意外加息”。因此，这场会议越来越像是在猜测一位主席的决策逻辑，而非整个委员会的共识。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>一、最值得关注：利率决定本身</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果美联储维持利率不变，这仍然是最符合市场主流预期的结果。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">无论是6月偏温和的通胀数据，还是此前多位官员释放的政策信号，都支持继续观望。两周前，沃什在长达五小时的国会听证会上，也没有任何为加息提前铺路的表态。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">若最终按兵不动，市场将重点关注是否出现反对票。如果有委员支持加息，意味着委员会内部要求进一步收紧政策的声音正在增强。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去，美联储主席通常会通过调整声明措辞，或暗示未来会议更可能采取行动，来减少委员公开投下反对票。但沃什一直主张减少这种“前瞻性指引”，如果坚持这一做法，他可能更难避免内部意见分歧被公开。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果美联储意外宣布加息，则意味着政策立场发生明显转向。这不仅会削弱此前官员释放政策信号的可信度，也可能带来政治影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去一年，白宫一直强调美国通胀已受到控制、当前利率偏高。如果由特朗普提名的美联储主席推动加息，无疑将向市场传递完全相反的信息，也有助于打消外界关于沃什受白宫影响的质疑。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>二、沃什真正想传递什么？</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果选择加息，更大的意义或许在于释放一种政策态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什一直强调，要结束美国过去五年来持续高于2%目标的通胀局面。如果在前任主席选择等待的时候率先行动，将比任何公开讲话都更能体现其控制通胀的决心。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，这种策略也存在争议。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">纽约联储主席、FOMC副主席约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）本月早些时候明确表示，美联储的公信力来自于依据经济数据作出正确决策，而不是试图通过货币政策本身去塑造市场对央行的信任。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，即便真的加息，沃什也尚未解释，更高的利率将如何缓解当前的通胀压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他此前曾表示，对于油价等供给冲击，美联储短期内几乎无能为力；同时，他也认为，人工智能带来的生产率提升未来有望帮助压低物价。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>三、新闻发布会可能比决议更重要</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">无论最终是否加息，市场都将高度关注沃什如何解释这一决定。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去两个月，他不断强调恢复价格稳定，并多次表示，美联储必须为持续偏高的通胀负责。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果最终维持利率不变，市场最关心的问题将是：既然如此强调抗通胀，为何这次没有采取行动？未来又需要哪些条件才会促使美联储加息？相比上次会议，中东局势已经重新恶化，油价风险明显上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果美联储选择加息，沃什给出的理由将直接影响市场走势。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果他将加息描述为纠正过去长期未能实现2%通胀目标的第一步，市场可能会认为本轮加息周期才刚刚开始，一些分析人士甚至预计，长期美债收益率可能因此回落，因为投资者会相信美联储终于下定决心控制通胀。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但如果沃什强调，这只是针对当前局势的一次性应对措施，那么市场解读将相对温和，对未来政策路径的指引意义也会大打折扣。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国银行经济学家Stephen Juneau指出，如果美联储在通胀数据已经明显降温的背景下突然加息，却没有充分解释原因，市场可能会过度解读这一决定，甚至引发新的波动。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>焦点仍在9月</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">无论本周结果如何，都未必意味着未来政策方向已经确定。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">真正决定9月是否加息的，仍将是整个夏季公布的通胀数据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储官员此前已经给出明确判断：如果未来几个月通胀重新走强，9月加息的可能性将明显上升；如果通胀继续降温，美联储则有理由继续保持耐心，等待更多经济数据验证趋势。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"VGLT":"美国长期国债ETF-Vanguard","TMV":"3倍做空20年期以上美国国债ETF-Direxion","SHV":"Ishares Trust Trust Ishares 0-1 YEAR Treasury BOND ETF","EDV":"美国延期国债ETF-Vanguard","TLH":"iShares安硕10-20年国债ETF","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","UBT":"债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SCHO":"嘉信短期美国国债ETF","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","AGG":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays综合国债","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard","TBT":"债券20+美国债指数ETF-ProShares两倍做空","VGSH":"美国短期国债ETF-Vanguard","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","SGOV":"Ishares Trust Ishares 0-3 Month Treasury BOND ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196328231","content_text":"过去，美联储召开议息会议前，市场通常早已对结果形成一致预期，但这一次却不同。两周前，市场普遍认为，美联储将在本次会议上继续维持利率于3.5%至3.75%区间不变。多位美联储高层此前释放的信号也显示，只有在通胀重新走强的情况下才有必要加息。而6月公布的通胀数据低于预期，使市场一度认为，若需要进一步收紧政策，也更可能等到9月。然而，上周美伊停火协议破裂、油价迅速上涨后，市场情绪开始发生变化。越来越多交易员开始押注7月加息，而这种预期又进一步推高了市场的加息定价，形成了“预期推动预期”的局面。周二，利率期货市场显示，美联储本周加息的概率约为三分之一，预测市场给出的概率则略低一些。市场之所以重新开始讨论7月加息，并非因为美联储官员释放了新的信号，而是投资者开始猜测，美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）是否会基于自己的判断推动一次“意外加息”。因此，这场会议越来越像是在猜测一位主席的决策逻辑，而非整个委员会的共识。一、最值得关注：利率决定本身如果美联储维持利率不变，这仍然是最符合市场主流预期的结果。无论是6月偏温和的通胀数据，还是此前多位官员释放的政策信号，都支持继续观望。两周前，沃什在长达五小时的国会听证会上，也没有任何为加息提前铺路的表态。若最终按兵不动，市场将重点关注是否出现反对票。如果有委员支持加息，意味着委员会内部要求进一步收紧政策的声音正在增强。过去，美联储主席通常会通过调整声明措辞，或暗示未来会议更可能采取行动，来减少委员公开投下反对票。但沃什一直主张减少这种“前瞻性指引”，如果坚持这一做法，他可能更难避免内部意见分歧被公开。如果美联储意外宣布加息，则意味着政策立场发生明显转向。这不仅会削弱此前官员释放政策信号的可信度，也可能带来政治影响。过去一年，白宫一直强调美国通胀已受到控制、当前利率偏高。如果由特朗普提名的美联储主席推动加息，无疑将向市场传递完全相反的信息，也有助于打消外界关于沃什受白宫影响的质疑。二、沃什真正想传递什么？如果选择加息，更大的意义或许在于释放一种政策态度。沃什一直强调，要结束美国过去五年来持续高于2%目标的通胀局面。如果在前任主席选择等待的时候率先行动，将比任何公开讲话都更能体现其控制通胀的决心。不过，这种策略也存在争议。纽约联储主席、FOMC副主席约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）本月早些时候明确表示，美联储的公信力来自于依据经济数据作出正确决策，而不是试图通过货币政策本身去塑造市场对央行的信任。此外，即便真的加息，沃什也尚未解释，更高的利率将如何缓解当前的通胀压力。他此前曾表示，对于油价等供给冲击，美联储短期内几乎无能为力；同时，他也认为，人工智能带来的生产率提升未来有望帮助压低物价。三、新闻发布会可能比决议更重要无论最终是否加息，市场都将高度关注沃什如何解释这一决定。过去两个月，他不断强调恢复价格稳定，并多次表示，美联储必须为持续偏高的通胀负责。如果最终维持利率不变，市场最关心的问题将是：既然如此强调抗通胀，为何这次没有采取行动？未来又需要哪些条件才会促使美联储加息？相比上次会议，中东局势已经重新恶化，油价风险明显上升。如果美联储选择加息，沃什给出的理由将直接影响市场走势。如果他将加息描述为纠正过去长期未能实现2%通胀目标的第一步，市场可能会认为本轮加息周期才刚刚开始，一些分析人士甚至预计，长期美债收益率可能因此回落，因为投资者会相信美联储终于下定决心控制通胀。但如果沃什强调，这只是针对当前局势的一次性应对措施，那么市场解读将相对温和，对未来政策路径的指引意义也会大打折扣。美国银行经济学家Stephen Juneau指出，如果美联储在通胀数据已经明显降温的背景下突然加息，却没有充分解释原因，市场可能会过度解读这一决定，甚至引发新的波动。焦点仍在9月无论本周结果如何，都未必意味着未来政策方向已经确定。真正决定9月是否加息的，仍将是整个夏季公布的通胀数据。美联储官员此前已经给出明确判断：如果未来几个月通胀重新走强，9月加息的可能性将明显上升；如果通胀继续降温，美联储则有理由继续保持耐心，等待更多经济数据验证趋势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBT":2,"TBT":2,"TLT":2,"GOVT":2,"EDV":2,"TQQQ":2,".SPX":2,"HYG":2,"TLH":2,"SQQQ":2,"QQQ":2,"BOXX":2,"BND":2,"SHV":2,"NQmain":2,"VGIT":2,"YMmain":2,"IEF":2,"SCHO":2,"VGSH":2,"ESmain":2,"AGG":2,"TMF":2,".DJI":2,"TLTW":2,".IXIC":2,"SGOV":2,"SHY":2,"VGLT":2,"TMV":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":587711926759992,"gmtCreate":1784515871653,"gmtModify":1784515873295,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514005164997802","authorIdStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"回归正常","listText":"回归正常","text":"回归正常","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/587711926759992","repostId":"1195266647","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195266647","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1784514198,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1195266647?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-20 10:23","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股直击 | 智谱跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元；MINIMAX跌超10%，股价跌破200港元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195266647","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月20日，智谱跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元大关；MINIMAX跌超10%，股价跌破200港元","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月20日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02513\">智谱</a>跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元大关；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00100\">MINIMAX-W</a>跌超10%，股价跌破200港元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/471def1433b0397b6c7fd5a45dc166ff\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"228\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股直击 | 智谱跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元；MINIMAX跌超10%，股价跌破200港元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股直击 | 智谱跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元；MINIMAX跌超10%，股价跌破200港元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-20 10:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月20日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02513\">智谱</a>跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元大关；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00100\">MINIMAX-W</a>跌超10%，股价跌破200港元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/471def1433b0397b6c7fd5a45dc166ff\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"228\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d9d6040a0845516a8f8d6acac45fdcaf","relate_stocks":{"00100":"MINIMAX-W","02513":"智谱"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195266647","content_text":"7月20日，智谱跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元大关；MINIMAX-W跌超10%，股价跌破200港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02513":2.1,"00100":2.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":585758777521272,"gmtCreate":1784038954760,"gmtModify":1784038956492,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514005164997802","authorIdStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$&nbsp;</a> 拉胯","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$&nbsp;</a> 拉胯","text":"$美光科技(MU)$ 拉胯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/585758777521272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":580439775388288,"gmtCreate":1782739097716,"gmtModify":1782739099481,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514005164997802","authorIdStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"吃饱了撑的吗？","listText":"吃饱了撑的吗？","text":"吃饱了撑的吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/580439775388288","repostId":"1187092008","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1187092008","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1782737781,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187092008?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-29 20:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"三星、SK海力士、美光在美遭集体诉讼，涉嫌操纵内存价格","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187092008","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"三星电子、SK海力士和美光科技被美国部分消费者起诉，指控其涉嫌合谋操纵内存价格。原告指控，这三家生产全球绝大部分DRAM的企业自2022年起在供应和定价上进行串通，导致过去四年间价格飙升约700%。他们还表示，苹果近期全面上调产品价格是此次诉讼的导火索。若原告最终在集体诉讼中胜诉，被告企业将须支付三倍赔偿。三星电子和SK海力士此前在美国曾因合谋行为被定罪，这一点也令人担忧。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三星电子、SK海力士和美光科技被美国部分消费者起诉，指控其涉嫌合谋操纵内存价格。随着近期“芯片通胀”加剧——包括苹果产品提价——当地消费者和小企业已采取法律行动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据美国科技媒体Wccftech及法律刊物LAW360报道，14名个人消费者以及包括个人电脑零售商在内的三家小企业，于本月25日向加利福尼亚州联邦法院提起了诉讼。原告指控，这三家生产全球绝大部分DRAM的企业自2022年起在供应和定价上进行串通，导致过去四年间价格飙升约700%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">原告称，这三家公司以向高带宽内存（HBM）转型为由，减少了DRAM的供应。“这些DRAM寡头企业系统性地协调了向HBM的转移，以及DDR3和DDR4的停产。”他们还表示，苹果近期全面上调产品价格是此次诉讼的导火索。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这起诉讼目前规模尚小，但如果法院认可原告主张并正式批准为集体诉讼，规模可能进一步扩大。代表原告的反垄断律师事务所Bathaee Dunne正争取将此案定性为集体诉讼，以代表所有购买含DRAM产品的普通消费者和企业。该律所此前曾在一起指控谷歌数字广告串通的案件中胜诉。若原告最终在集体诉讼中胜诉，被告企业将须支付三倍赔偿。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三星电子和SK海力士此前在美国曾因合谋行为被定罪，这一点也令人担忧。这两家公司均被认定在21世纪初在美国从事价格操纵，不仅被处以巨额罚款，还导致高管被判入狱。不过，包括投资银行杰富瑞（Jefferies）在内的业内机构预计，该诉讼至少在今年年底前不会影响内存价格。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>三星、SK海力士、美光在美遭集体诉讼，涉嫌操纵内存价格</title>\n<style 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left;\">三星电子、SK海力士和美光科技被美国部分消费者起诉，指控其涉嫌合谋操纵内存价格。随着近期“芯片通胀”加剧——包括苹果产品提价——当地消费者和小企业已采取法律行动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据美国科技媒体Wccftech及法律刊物LAW360报道，14名个人消费者以及包括个人电脑零售商在内的三家小企业，于本月25日向加利福尼亚州联邦法院提起了诉讼。原告指控，这三家生产全球绝大部分DRAM的企业自2022年起在供应和定价上进行串通，导致过去四年间价格飙升约700%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">原告称，这三家公司以向高带宽内存（HBM）转型为由，减少了DRAM的供应。“这些DRAM寡头企业系统性地协调了向HBM的转移，以及DDR3和DDR4的停产。”他们还表示，苹果近期全面上调产品价格是此次诉讼的导火索。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这起诉讼目前规模尚小，但如果法院认可原告主张并正式批准为集体诉讼，规模可能进一步扩大。代表原告的反垄断律师事务所Bathaee Dunne正争取将此案定性为集体诉讼，以代表所有购买含DRAM产品的普通消费者和企业。该律所此前曾在一起指控谷歌数字广告串通的案件中胜诉。若原告最终在集体诉讼中胜诉，被告企业将须支付三倍赔偿。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三星电子和SK海力士此前在美国曾因合谋行为被定罪，这一点也令人担忧。这两家公司均被认定在21世纪初在美国从事价格操纵，不仅被处以巨额罚款，还导致高管被判入狱。不过，包括投资银行杰富瑞（Jefferies）在内的业内机构预计，该诉讼至少在今年年底前不会影响内存价格。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97dc49a1c38f37d8c33d7241fccf9976","relate_stocks":{"MULL":"2倍做多MU ETF-GraniteShares","SKHY":"SK海力士","MUU":"2倍做多MU 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left;\">伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社今天(5月25日)援引一名知情人士的话称，迄今为止美伊双方尚未达成最终谅解备忘录，仍有条款存在争议。鉴于美国过往谈判中屡次失信，伊朗对美方不抱任何乐观预期，即便达成协议，也会密切监督美方履约情况，一旦美方违背承诺，伊朗将保留全部谈判筹码予以反制。(CCTV国际时讯)</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一方面，据半岛电视台报道，美国国务卿鲁比奥表示：<strong>仍有希望与伊朗达成协议。在任何与伊朗达成的协议中，以色列都有权进行自卫。随着谈判的继续，与伊朗的潜在协议最早仍可能于周一签署。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f19eed0dfe9b6f15725f2f7a21a5852","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152925080","content_text":"伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社今天(5月25日)援引一名知情人士的话称，迄今为止美伊双方尚未达成最终谅解备忘录，仍有条款存在争议。鉴于美国过往谈判中屡次失信，伊朗对美方不抱任何乐观预期，即便达成协议，也会密切监督美方履约情况，一旦美方违背承诺，伊朗将保留全部谈判筹码予以反制。(CCTV国际时讯)另一方面，据半岛电视台报道，美国国务卿鲁比奥表示：仍有希望与伊朗达成协议。在任何与伊朗达成的协议中，以色列都有权进行自卫。随着谈判的继续，与伊朗的潜在协议最早仍可能于周一签署。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":2,"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":355350098,"gmtCreate":1617030166714,"gmtModify":1617030166714,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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left;\">伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社今天(5月25日)援引一名知情人士的话称，迄今为止美伊双方尚未达成最终谅解备忘录，仍有条款存在争议。鉴于美国过往谈判中屡次失信，伊朗对美方不抱任何乐观预期，即便达成协议，也会密切监督美方履约情况，一旦美方违背承诺，伊朗将保留全部谈判筹码予以反制。(CCTV国际时讯)</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一方面，据半岛电视台报道，美国国务卿鲁比奥表示：<strong>仍有希望与伊朗达成协议。在任何与伊朗达成的协议中，以色列都有权进行自卫。随着谈判的继续，与伊朗的潜在协议最早仍可能于周一签署。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f19eed0dfe9b6f15725f2f7a21a5852","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152925080","content_text":"伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社今天(5月25日)援引一名知情人士的话称，迄今为止美伊双方尚未达成最终谅解备忘录，仍有条款存在争议。鉴于美国过往谈判中屡次失信，伊朗对美方不抱任何乐观预期，即便达成协议，也会密切监督美方履约情况，一旦美方违背承诺，伊朗将保留全部谈判筹码予以反制。(CCTV国际时讯)另一方面，据半岛电视台报道，美国国务卿鲁比奥表示：仍有希望与伊朗达成协议。在任何与伊朗达成的协议中，以色列都有权进行自卫。随着谈判的继续，与伊朗的潜在协议最早仍可能于周一签署。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":2,"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622749138813648,"gmtCreate":1793077851593,"gmtModify":1793078191094,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"真是了不起的法律啊","listText":"真是了不起的法律啊","text":"真是了不起的法律啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622749138813648","repostId":"2678404141","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2678404141","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1793073068,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2678404141?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-10-27 11:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"阿里巴巴起诉美国国防部取得初步胜利 法院叫停相关禁令","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2678404141","media":"格隆汇","summary":"据彭博，阿里巴巴集团在美国法院赢得了一项裁决，该公司此前对美国国防部将其列为“中国军方关联企业”的黑名单提出了异议。美国加州圣何塞的一名联邦法官于当地时间周一下达裁定，要求特朗普政府停止执行一项禁令，","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据彭博，阿里巴巴集团在美国法院赢得了一项裁决，该公司此前对美国国防部将其列为“中国军方关联企业”的黑名单提出了异议。美国加州圣何塞的一名联邦法官于当地时间周一下达裁定，要求特朗普政府停止执行一项禁令，该禁令禁止五角大楼与任何为阿里巴巴集团进行“游说活动”的公司开展业务往来。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 阿里巴巴曾于6月9日在港交所公告，公司注意到美国国防部已将阿里巴巴集团列入中国军工企业名单。美国国防部不得直接或间接从中国军工企业名单上实体采购商品、服务或技术。</p></body></html>","source":"live_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里巴巴起诉美国国防部取得初步胜利 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href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2161e8ddb469de4171b1fb09459c6b","relate_stocks":{"89988":"阿里巴巴-WR","LU2257852520.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Asia Growth A (acc) SGD","LU0051755006.USD":"摩根大通中国A (dist)","LU0261950983.USD":"FIDELITY ASIAN SPECIAL SITUATIONS \"A\" ACC","LU1201861165.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity PA SGD","LU2294711473.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS CHINA EQUITY \"C\" (HKD) ACC","LU0572939691.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 SGD","LU2226246903.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT4\" (HKD) ACC","LU0455707207.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  CHINA INNOVATION \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","LU0106959298.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - EMERGING MARKETS SUSTAINABLE LEADERS (USD) \"P\" (USD) 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09:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wolfspeed取消旧股并作为重组计划的一部分发行新股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180269543","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Wolfspeed周一取消了此前发行并流通的股份，这是其削减债务并退出破产计划的一部分。纽约证券交易所上周在一份通知中确认了这一变更，称Wolfspeed发行的普通股是新证券发行的一部分，该股票将于9月29日开始以股票代码WOLF进行交易。根据美国证券交易委员会的一份文件，纽约证券交易所将于10月10日起将Wolfspeed的旧普通股摘牌。Wolfspeed在6月表示，已与债权人达成协议，削减约46亿美元的债务，并将总现金利息支付减少60%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOLF\">Wolfspeed Inc.</a> 成功脱离破产保护程序，并大幅削减了债务和利息成本。公司周一取消了此前发行并流通的股份，这是其削减债务并退出破产计划的一部分。这家半导体公司在向美国证券交易委员会提交的8-K表格中指出，现有股东按比例获得了130万股普通股，兑换比例为0.008352。</p><p>截至发稿，Wolfspeed周二盘前暴涨超36%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db0da185ed254a3e69318007d97aa97a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"124\"/></p><p>公司发行了新股，但未更改其股票代码。截至周一，Wolfspeed的新流通股数约为2584万股，而之前的旧股份数为1.5648亿股。</p><p>纽约证券交易所上周在一份通知中确认了这一变更，称Wolfspeed发行的普通股是新证券发行的一部分，该股票将于9月29日开始以股票代码WOLF进行交易。</p><p>由于盘中波动性较大，交易一度暂停。盘中股价最高升至21.78美元，较开盘价上涨21%。</p><p>根据美国证券交易委员会的一份文件，纽约证券交易所将于10月10日起将Wolfspeed的旧普通股摘牌。目前，旧股交易已被暂停。</p><p>这一进展正值该公司将其注册地从北卡罗来纳州迁至特拉华州，作为持续重组计划的一部分。</p><p>Wolfspeed在6月表示，已与债权人达成协议，削减约46亿美元的债务，并将总现金利息支付减少60%。几天后，公司正式申请第11章破产保护。</p><p>本月初，公司表示其第11章重组计划已获法院批准，并计划在未来几周内退出破产程序。</p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wolfspeed取消旧股并作为重组计划的一部分发行新股</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWolfspeed取消旧股并作为重组计划的一部分发行新股\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-09-30 09:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOLF\">Wolfspeed Inc.</a> 成功脱离破产保护程序，并大幅削减了债务和利息成本。公司周一取消了此前发行并流通的股份，这是其削减债务并退出破产计划的一部分。这家半导体公司在向美国证券交易委员会提交的8-K表格中指出，现有股东按比例获得了130万股普通股，兑换比例为0.008352。</p><p>截至发稿，Wolfspeed周二盘前暴涨超36%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db0da185ed254a3e69318007d97aa97a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"124\"/></p><p>公司发行了新股，但未更改其股票代码。截至周一，Wolfspeed的新流通股数约为2584万股，而之前的旧股份数为1.5648亿股。</p><p>纽约证券交易所上周在一份通知中确认了这一变更，称Wolfspeed发行的普通股是新证券发行的一部分，该股票将于9月29日开始以股票代码WOLF进行交易。</p><p>由于盘中波动性较大，交易一度暂停。盘中股价最高升至21.78美元，较开盘价上涨21%。</p><p>根据美国证券交易委员会的一份文件，纽约证券交易所将于10月10日起将Wolfspeed的旧普通股摘牌。目前，旧股交易已被暂停。</p><p>这一进展正值该公司将其注册地从北卡罗来纳州迁至特拉华州，作为持续重组计划的一部分。</p><p>Wolfspeed在6月表示，已与债权人达成协议，削减约46亿美元的债务，并将总现金利息支付减少60%。几天后，公司正式申请第11章破产保护。</p><p>本月初，公司表示其第11章重组计划已获法院批准，并计划在未来几周内退出破产程序。</p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47aebce4308b42e29c0ebeede253c625","relate_stocks":{"WOLF":"Wolfspeed Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180269543","content_text":"Wolfspeed Inc. 成功脱离破产保护程序，并大幅削减了债务和利息成本。公司周一取消了此前发行并流通的股份，这是其削减债务并退出破产计划的一部分。这家半导体公司在向美国证券交易委员会提交的8-K表格中指出，现有股东按比例获得了130万股普通股，兑换比例为0.008352。截至发稿，Wolfspeed周二盘前暴涨超36%。公司发行了新股，但未更改其股票代码。截至周一，Wolfspeed的新流通股数约为2584万股，而之前的旧股份数为1.5648亿股。纽约证券交易所上周在一份通知中确认了这一变更，称Wolfspeed发行的普通股是新证券发行的一部分，该股票将于9月29日开始以股票代码WOLF进行交易。由于盘中波动性较大，交易一度暂停。盘中股价最高升至21.78美元，较开盘价上涨21%。根据美国证券交易委员会的一份文件，纽约证券交易所将于10月10日起将Wolfspeed的旧普通股摘牌。目前，旧股交易已被暂停。这一进展正值该公司将其注册地从北卡罗来纳州迁至特拉华州，作为持续重组计划的一部分。Wolfspeed在6月表示，已与债权人达成协议，削减约46亿美元的债务，并将总现金利息支付减少60%。几天后，公司正式申请第11章破产保护。本月初，公司表示其第11章重组计划已获法院批准，并计划在未来几周内退出破产程序。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WOLF":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":472858022727864,"gmtCreate":1756475999873,"gmtModify":1756476001748,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"阿里不可能开发得出芯片，电商都快做不好了","listText":"阿里不可能开发得出芯片，电商都快做不好了","text":"阿里不可能开发得出芯片，电商都快做不好了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/472858022727864","repostId":"1143336870","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1143336870","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1756474727,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1143336870?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-29 21:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场消息：阿里开发新款AI芯片顶替英伟达，不再由台积电代工","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143336870","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"转为由国内一家企业代工。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周五， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a> 盘初大涨超9%。同时， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 快速下挫超3%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a> 跌超2%。市场消息：<strong>阿里开发了一款新的AI芯片，填补英伟达在中国市场的空白。</strong>知情人士称，这款新芯片目前正在测试中，旨在服务于更广泛的人工智能推理任务，而且与英伟达兼容。</p><p>新的芯片不再由台积电代工，转为由国内一家企业代工。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45000285c8e73c4a5ead23daadd14c82\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d5a7686317b6ccdb1ef7f6133b3f4c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adb08d03b8d918c2c8ec9dd9fd9c0dcd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场消息：阿里开发新款AI芯片顶替英伟达，不再由台积电代工</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场消息：阿里开发新款AI芯片顶替英伟达，不再由台积电代工\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-08-29 21:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周五， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a> 盘初大涨超9%。同时， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 快速下挫超3%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a> 跌超2%。市场消息：<strong>阿里开发了一款新的AI芯片，填补英伟达在中国市场的空白。</strong>知情人士称，这款新芯片目前正在测试中，旨在服务于更广泛的人工智能推理任务，而且与英伟达兼容。</p><p>新的芯片不再由台积电代工，转为由国内一家企业代工。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45000285c8e73c4a5ead23daadd14c82\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d5a7686317b6ccdb1ef7f6133b3f4c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adb08d03b8d918c2c8ec9dd9fd9c0dcd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5177d7812ef76cff1bd9b42843979808","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","NVDA":"英伟达","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143336870","content_text":"周五， 阿里巴巴 盘初大涨超9%。同时， 英伟达 快速下挫超3%， 台积电 跌超2%。市场消息：阿里开发了一款新的AI芯片，填补英伟达在中国市场的空白。知情人士称，这款新芯片目前正在测试中，旨在服务于更广泛的人工智能推理任务，而且与英伟达兼容。新的芯片不再由台积电代工，转为由国内一家企业代工。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":1.1,"BABA":1.1,"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3467026553147025","authorId":"3467026553147025","name":"不要给我谈梦想","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e7bd71f323dad952a53a59a8022135","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3467026553147025","idStr":"3467026553147025"},"content":"阿里的通义ai确实好用，尤其是视频生成，而且还有很多的免费额度","text":"阿里的通义ai确实好用，尤其是视频生成，而且还有很多的免费额度","html":"阿里的通义ai确实好用，尤其是视频生成，而且还有很多的免费额度"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":585758777521272,"gmtCreate":1784038954760,"gmtModify":1784038956492,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$&nbsp;</a> 拉胯","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$&nbsp;</a> 拉胯","text":"$美光科技(MU)$ 拉胯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/585758777521272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":580439775388288,"gmtCreate":1782739097716,"gmtModify":1782739099481,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"吃饱了撑的吗？","listText":"吃饱了撑的吗？","text":"吃饱了撑的吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/580439775388288","repostId":"1187092008","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1187092008","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1782737781,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187092008?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-29 20:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"三星、SK海力士、美光在美遭集体诉讼，涉嫌操纵内存价格","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187092008","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"三星电子、SK海力士和美光科技被美国部分消费者起诉，指控其涉嫌合谋操纵内存价格。原告指控，这三家生产全球绝大部分DRAM的企业自2022年起在供应和定价上进行串通，导致过去四年间价格飙升约700%。他们还表示，苹果近期全面上调产品价格是此次诉讼的导火索。若原告最终在集体诉讼中胜诉，被告企业将须支付三倍赔偿。三星电子和SK海力士此前在美国曾因合谋行为被定罪，这一点也令人担忧。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三星电子、SK海力士和美光科技被美国部分消费者起诉，指控其涉嫌合谋操纵内存价格。随着近期“芯片通胀”加剧——包括苹果产品提价——当地消费者和小企业已采取法律行动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据美国科技媒体Wccftech及法律刊物LAW360报道，14名个人消费者以及包括个人电脑零售商在内的三家小企业，于本月25日向加利福尼亚州联邦法院提起了诉讼。原告指控，这三家生产全球绝大部分DRAM的企业自2022年起在供应和定价上进行串通，导致过去四年间价格飙升约700%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">原告称，这三家公司以向高带宽内存（HBM）转型为由，减少了DRAM的供应。“这些DRAM寡头企业系统性地协调了向HBM的转移，以及DDR3和DDR4的停产。”他们还表示，苹果近期全面上调产品价格是此次诉讼的导火索。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这起诉讼目前规模尚小，但如果法院认可原告主张并正式批准为集体诉讼，规模可能进一步扩大。代表原告的反垄断律师事务所Bathaee Dunne正争取将此案定性为集体诉讼，以代表所有购买含DRAM产品的普通消费者和企业。该律所此前曾在一起指控谷歌数字广告串通的案件中胜诉。若原告最终在集体诉讼中胜诉，被告企业将须支付三倍赔偿。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三星电子和SK海力士此前在美国曾因合谋行为被定罪，这一点也令人担忧。这两家公司均被认定在21世纪初在美国从事价格操纵，不仅被处以巨额罚款，还导致高管被判入狱。不过，包括投资银行杰富瑞（Jefferies）在内的业内机构预计，该诉讼至少在今年年底前不会影响内存价格。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>三星、SK海力士、美光在美遭集体诉讼，涉嫌操纵内存价格</title>\n<style 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left;\">三星电子、SK海力士和美光科技被美国部分消费者起诉，指控其涉嫌合谋操纵内存价格。随着近期“芯片通胀”加剧——包括苹果产品提价——当地消费者和小企业已采取法律行动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据美国科技媒体Wccftech及法律刊物LAW360报道，14名个人消费者以及包括个人电脑零售商在内的三家小企业，于本月25日向加利福尼亚州联邦法院提起了诉讼。原告指控，这三家生产全球绝大部分DRAM的企业自2022年起在供应和定价上进行串通，导致过去四年间价格飙升约700%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">原告称，这三家公司以向高带宽内存（HBM）转型为由，减少了DRAM的供应。“这些DRAM寡头企业系统性地协调了向HBM的转移，以及DDR3和DDR4的停产。”他们还表示，苹果近期全面上调产品价格是此次诉讼的导火索。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这起诉讼目前规模尚小，但如果法院认可原告主张并正式批准为集体诉讼，规模可能进一步扩大。代表原告的反垄断律师事务所Bathaee Dunne正争取将此案定性为集体诉讼，以代表所有购买含DRAM产品的普通消费者和企业。该律所此前曾在一起指控谷歌数字广告串通的案件中胜诉。若原告最终在集体诉讼中胜诉，被告企业将须支付三倍赔偿。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三星电子和SK海力士此前在美国曾因合谋行为被定罪，这一点也令人担忧。这两家公司均被认定在21世纪初在美国从事价格操纵，不仅被处以巨额罚款，还导致高管被判入狱。不过，包括投资银行杰富瑞（Jefferies）在内的业内机构预计，该诉讼至少在今年年底前不会影响内存价格。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97dc49a1c38f37d8c33d7241fccf9976","relate_stocks":{"MULL":"2倍做多MU ETF-GraniteShares","SKHY":"SK海力士","MUU":"2倍做多MU 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Dunne正争取将此案定性为集体诉讼，以代表所有购买含DRAM产品的普通消费者和企业。该律所此前曾在一起指控谷歌数字广告串通的案件中胜诉。若原告最终在集体诉讼中胜诉，被告企业将须支付三倍赔偿。三星电子和SK海力士此前在美国曾因合谋行为被定罪，这一点也令人担忧。这两家公司均被认定在21世纪初在美国从事价格操纵，不仅被处以巨额罚款，还导致高管被判入狱。不过，包括投资银行杰富瑞（Jefferies）在内的业内机构预计，该诉讼至少在今年年底前不会影响内存价格。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"07709":2,"SKHY":1,"MUD":0.6,"MU":2,"MULL":0.6,"07747":2,"MUU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":566523486848104,"gmtCreate":1779345724539,"gmtModify":1779345726894,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"理华尔街作甚？","listText":"理华尔街作甚？","text":"理华尔街作甚？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566523486848104","repostId":"2637047068","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2637047068","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1779344091,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2637047068?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-21 14:14","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"英伟达业绩创下最佳的一次“超预期”，为何华尔街还嫌不“完美”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2637047068","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"英伟达盘后下跌，当\"超预期\"成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>英伟达盘后下跌，当&#34;超预期&#34;成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达又一次交出“超预期业绩加上调指引”的成绩单，但市场反应显示，对全球AI龙头而言，强劲增长已不再自动等于股价上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达财年第一季度营收为816亿美元，高于市场预期的790亿美元，同比增长85%；调整后每股收益为1.87美元，高于预期的1.75美元。公司预计7月季度营收为910亿美元，也高于FactSet共识预期的873亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便如此，英伟达股价周三盘后最终下跌约1%。公司给出的调整后毛利率目标为75%，与最近一个季度持平，没有出现市场担忧的利润率收缩，但仍未能推动股价走高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Direxion产品与策略高级副总裁Ryan Lee写道，“市场要求世界最大公司做到完美。”Direxion资本市场负责人Jake Behan补充称，<strong>当预期已经如此之高时，即使一份强劲财报，如果没有实质性抬高长期前景，也可能压制股价。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1105007441\" style=\"text-align: left;\">业绩全面高于预期，但“惊喜”不再稀缺</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达本季度核心指标几乎全面超过华尔街预期。营收同比增速从上一季度的73.2%加快至85%，也高于去年11月季度62%的同比增速。调整后每股收益同样高于市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心仍是最大支柱。财年第一季度数据中心收入为752亿美元，同比增长92%，环比增长21%，高于FactSet预期的731亿美元。公司称增长来自Blackwell架构的持续强劲需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Investing.com分析师Thomas Monteiro认为，<strong>这是英伟达最近几个季度中“最干净的一次超预期”，因为业绩不仅跨过了很高的门槛，也回应了市场围绕AI交易的一些更大疑问。</strong>他认为，目前没有看到需求放缓的明显迹象。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但投资者的反应更谨慎。Jefferies交易台分析师Jeffrey Favuzza将盘后走势称为一场<strong>“knife fight”</strong>。他认为，这<strong>份财报之后，买方对2027年和2028年的盈利预期未必会明显上调。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1051977213\" style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心仍在加速，网络业务成为关键支撑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达增长的质量，更多体现在数据中心内部结构上。除GPU需求外，网络业务正在成为更重要的收入来源。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司本季度数据中心网络收入达到148亿美元，创下纪录，同比增长199%，环比增长35%，高于分析师预期的140亿美元。更广义的计算与网络业务收入为756亿美元，同比增长88%，环比增长21%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CFO Colette Kress在电话会上表示，<strong>Blackwell架构已经“无处不在”，并被主要超大规模云厂商，云服务商和主要模型开发商采用和部署。她还提到，OpenAI的新GPT-5.5模型依赖Blackwell。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这对市场很重要。AI基础设施支出不再只是购买单一芯片，而是转向系统，网络和集群能力。Monteiro称，英伟达正在捕捉AI建设中更大份额的支出，客户不仅购买芯片，也购买连接和扩展这些芯片的系统。</p><h2 id=\"id_3870000170\" style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街寻找新叙事：CPU，推理和智能体AI</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达最熟悉的投资叙事是GPU，但华尔街正在要求更多。HSBC的Frank Lee此前写道，GPU动能已经成为“相对不那么有意义”的投资叙事，因为云公司AI资本开支正流向更多领域，包括内存，网络和服务器CPU。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达试图给出新的增长路径。随着AI从训练转向推理，并进一步进入智能体AI阶段，CPU的重要性上升。Jensen Huang在电话会上表示，未来可能会出现数十亿个AI智能体，推理硬件需求将随之增加。他称，“思考”发生在GPU上，而编排基本运行在CPU上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Colette Kress表示，Vera CPU为英伟达打开了一个全新的2000亿美元可服务市场。</strong>她还称，公司今年对CPU收入已有接近200亿美元的可见度，这将为英伟达成为全球领先CPU供应商奠定基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达的Vera CPU将与下一代Rubin GPU协同工作。Jensen Huang表示，公司预计销售“数百万个Rubin”，并且每两个Rubin将连接一个Vera。这意味着CPU并非简单替代GPU，而是嵌入英伟达的系统级销售模式。</p><h2 id=\"id_1963357280\" style=\"text-align: left;\">股东回报大幅提高，但仍有人嫌不够</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达同时试图通过资本回报扩大投资者基础。公司宣布将股票回购计划增加800亿美元，加上此前授权中剩余的385亿美元，回购空间进一步扩大。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财年第一季度，英伟达回购金额为193.1亿美元，是上一季度38.2亿美元的四倍多，也较上年同期增长37%。公司还将季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至0.25美元，隐含股息率从0.02%升至0.45%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这回应了部分投资者诉求。BofA的Vivek Arya此前写道，英伟达股票已被约78%的主动型基金经理持有，较大的既有持仓可能使未来股价上涨面临挑战；其他大型科技公司曾通过提高现金回报吸引股息和收入型投资者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但回报力度仍未完全满足市场。Jeffrey Favuzza称，<strong>对部分投资者而言，800亿美元回购“略低于预期”。</strong>据Birinyi Associates截至4月中旬的数据，只有苹果曾宣布过规模更大的回购授权。</p><h2 id=\"id_1474008724\" style=\"text-align: left;\">更大的考验在长期预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份财报没有显示AI需求放缓，也没有显示毛利率承压，但它没有完全解除华尔街的长期疑虑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Gabelli Funds投资组合经理John Belton此前表示，英伟达是AI资本开支的主要受益者，但未来几年关键问题是这些资本开支是否能产生回报。他称，最新一轮财报后，超大规模云厂商今年AI支出趋势指向约7000亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>客户集中度也是风险点。</strong>Belton表示，英伟达约一半收入来自少数超大规模客户，而这些客户正在显著消耗自由现金流。投资者将关注英伟达是否能扩大客户基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达也在调整披露框架。公司将报告结构改为“数据中心”和“边缘计算”两大类，数据中心再细分为超大规模云厂商以及ACIE，即AI云，工业和企业。Founder ETFs投资组合经理Michael Monaghan称，这一变化显示出Jensen Huang眼中的增长方向，主权AI，企业和物理AI已经大到值得单独披露。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，英伟达的问题不是业绩不强，而是强劲已被充分预期。对华尔街而言，下一步需要看到的不是又一次超预期，而是足以重新抬高长期增长曲线的新证据。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达业绩创下最佳的一次“超预期”，为何华尔街还嫌不“完美”？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达业绩创下最佳的一次“超预期”，为何华尔街还嫌不“完美”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-21 14:14</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>英伟达盘后下跌，当&#34;超预期&#34;成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达又一次交出“超预期业绩加上调指引”的成绩单，但市场反应显示，对全球AI龙头而言，强劲增长已不再自动等于股价上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达财年第一季度营收为816亿美元，高于市场预期的790亿美元，同比增长85%；调整后每股收益为1.87美元，高于预期的1.75美元。公司预计7月季度营收为910亿美元，也高于FactSet共识预期的873亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便如此，英伟达股价周三盘后最终下跌约1%。公司给出的调整后毛利率目标为75%，与最近一个季度持平，没有出现市场担忧的利润率收缩，但仍未能推动股价走高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Direxion产品与策略高级副总裁Ryan Lee写道，“市场要求世界最大公司做到完美。”Direxion资本市场负责人Jake Behan补充称，<strong>当预期已经如此之高时，即使一份强劲财报，如果没有实质性抬高长期前景，也可能压制股价。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1105007441\" style=\"text-align: left;\">业绩全面高于预期，但“惊喜”不再稀缺</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达本季度核心指标几乎全面超过华尔街预期。营收同比增速从上一季度的73.2%加快至85%，也高于去年11月季度62%的同比增速。调整后每股收益同样高于市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心仍是最大支柱。财年第一季度数据中心收入为752亿美元，同比增长92%，环比增长21%，高于FactSet预期的731亿美元。公司称增长来自Blackwell架构的持续强劲需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Investing.com分析师Thomas Monteiro认为，<strong>这是英伟达最近几个季度中“最干净的一次超预期”，因为业绩不仅跨过了很高的门槛，也回应了市场围绕AI交易的一些更大疑问。</strong>他认为，目前没有看到需求放缓的明显迹象。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但投资者的反应更谨慎。Jefferies交易台分析师Jeffrey Favuzza将盘后走势称为一场<strong>“knife fight”</strong>。他认为，这<strong>份财报之后，买方对2027年和2028年的盈利预期未必会明显上调。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1051977213\" style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心仍在加速，网络业务成为关键支撑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达增长的质量，更多体现在数据中心内部结构上。除GPU需求外，网络业务正在成为更重要的收入来源。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司本季度数据中心网络收入达到148亿美元，创下纪录，同比增长199%，环比增长35%，高于分析师预期的140亿美元。更广义的计算与网络业务收入为756亿美元，同比增长88%，环比增长21%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CFO Colette Kress在电话会上表示，<strong>Blackwell架构已经“无处不在”，并被主要超大规模云厂商，云服务商和主要模型开发商采用和部署。她还提到，OpenAI的新GPT-5.5模型依赖Blackwell。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这对市场很重要。AI基础设施支出不再只是购买单一芯片，而是转向系统，网络和集群能力。Monteiro称，英伟达正在捕捉AI建设中更大份额的支出，客户不仅购买芯片，也购买连接和扩展这些芯片的系统。</p><h2 id=\"id_3870000170\" style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街寻找新叙事：CPU，推理和智能体AI</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达最熟悉的投资叙事是GPU，但华尔街正在要求更多。HSBC的Frank Lee此前写道，GPU动能已经成为“相对不那么有意义”的投资叙事，因为云公司AI资本开支正流向更多领域，包括内存，网络和服务器CPU。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达试图给出新的增长路径。随着AI从训练转向推理，并进一步进入智能体AI阶段，CPU的重要性上升。Jensen Huang在电话会上表示，未来可能会出现数十亿个AI智能体，推理硬件需求将随之增加。他称，“思考”发生在GPU上，而编排基本运行在CPU上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Colette Kress表示，Vera CPU为英伟达打开了一个全新的2000亿美元可服务市场。</strong>她还称，公司今年对CPU收入已有接近200亿美元的可见度，这将为英伟达成为全球领先CPU供应商奠定基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达的Vera CPU将与下一代Rubin GPU协同工作。Jensen Huang表示，公司预计销售“数百万个Rubin”，并且每两个Rubin将连接一个Vera。这意味着CPU并非简单替代GPU，而是嵌入英伟达的系统级销售模式。</p><h2 id=\"id_1963357280\" style=\"text-align: left;\">股东回报大幅提高，但仍有人嫌不够</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达同时试图通过资本回报扩大投资者基础。公司宣布将股票回购计划增加800亿美元，加上此前授权中剩余的385亿美元，回购空间进一步扩大。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财年第一季度，英伟达回购金额为193.1亿美元，是上一季度38.2亿美元的四倍多，也较上年同期增长37%。公司还将季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至0.25美元，隐含股息率从0.02%升至0.45%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这回应了部分投资者诉求。BofA的Vivek Arya此前写道，英伟达股票已被约78%的主动型基金经理持有，较大的既有持仓可能使未来股价上涨面临挑战；其他大型科技公司曾通过提高现金回报吸引股息和收入型投资者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但回报力度仍未完全满足市场。Jeffrey Favuzza称，<strong>对部分投资者而言，800亿美元回购“略低于预期”。</strong>据Birinyi Associates截至4月中旬的数据，只有苹果曾宣布过规模更大的回购授权。</p><h2 id=\"id_1474008724\" style=\"text-align: left;\">更大的考验在长期预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份财报没有显示AI需求放缓，也没有显示毛利率承压，但它没有完全解除华尔街的长期疑虑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Gabelli Funds投资组合经理John Belton此前表示，英伟达是AI资本开支的主要受益者，但未来几年关键问题是这些资本开支是否能产生回报。他称，最新一轮财报后，超大规模云厂商今年AI支出趋势指向约7000亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>客户集中度也是风险点。</strong>Belton表示，英伟达约一半收入来自少数超大规模客户，而这些客户正在显著消耗自由现金流。投资者将关注英伟达是否能扩大客户基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达也在调整披露框架。公司将报告结构改为“数据中心”和“边缘计算”两大类，数据中心再细分为超大规模云厂商以及ACIE，即AI云，工业和企业。Founder ETFs投资组合经理Michael Monaghan称，这一变化显示出Jensen Huang眼中的增长方向，主权AI，企业和物理AI已经大到值得单独披露。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，英伟达的问题不是业绩不强，而是强劲已被充分预期。对华尔街而言，下一步需要看到的不是又一次超预期，而是足以重新抬高长期增长曲线的新证据。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94518631ea8630131b1a8562c1b55bdd","relate_stocks":{"LU2746668461.USD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345768740.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC MANAGED \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU2089985449.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR OPPORTUNITIES \"AA\" (USD) ACC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU2931357623.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR OPPORTUNITIES \"AA\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2272731782.SGD":"Allianz Global 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772797","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2637047068","content_text":"英伟达盘后下跌，当\"超预期\"成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。英伟达又一次交出“超预期业绩加上调指引”的成绩单，但市场反应显示，对全球AI龙头而言，强劲增长已不再自动等于股价上涨。英伟达财年第一季度营收为816亿美元，高于市场预期的790亿美元，同比增长85%；调整后每股收益为1.87美元，高于预期的1.75美元。公司预计7月季度营收为910亿美元，也高于FactSet共识预期的873亿美元。即便如此，英伟达股价周三盘后最终下跌约1%。公司给出的调整后毛利率目标为75%，与最近一个季度持平，没有出现市场担忧的利润率收缩，但仍未能推动股价走高。Direxion产品与策略高级副总裁Ryan Lee写道，“市场要求世界最大公司做到完美。”Direxion资本市场负责人Jake Behan补充称，当预期已经如此之高时，即使一份强劲财报，如果没有实质性抬高长期前景，也可能压制股价。业绩全面高于预期，但“惊喜”不再稀缺英伟达本季度核心指标几乎全面超过华尔街预期。营收同比增速从上一季度的73.2%加快至85%，也高于去年11月季度62%的同比增速。调整后每股收益同样高于市场预期。数据中心仍是最大支柱。财年第一季度数据中心收入为752亿美元，同比增长92%，环比增长21%，高于FactSet预期的731亿美元。公司称增长来自Blackwell架构的持续强劲需求。Investing.com分析师Thomas Monteiro认为，这是英伟达最近几个季度中“最干净的一次超预期”，因为业绩不仅跨过了很高的门槛，也回应了市场围绕AI交易的一些更大疑问。他认为，目前没有看到需求放缓的明显迹象。但投资者的反应更谨慎。Jefferies交易台分析师Jeffrey Favuzza将盘后走势称为一场“knife fight”。他认为，这份财报之后，买方对2027年和2028年的盈利预期未必会明显上调。数据中心仍在加速，网络业务成为关键支撑英伟达增长的质量，更多体现在数据中心内部结构上。除GPU需求外，网络业务正在成为更重要的收入来源。公司本季度数据中心网络收入达到148亿美元，创下纪录，同比增长199%，环比增长35%，高于分析师预期的140亿美元。更广义的计算与网络业务收入为756亿美元，同比增长88%，环比增长21%。CFO Colette Kress在电话会上表示，Blackwell架构已经“无处不在”，并被主要超大规模云厂商，云服务商和主要模型开发商采用和部署。她还提到，OpenAI的新GPT-5.5模型依赖Blackwell。这对市场很重要。AI基础设施支出不再只是购买单一芯片，而是转向系统，网络和集群能力。Monteiro称，英伟达正在捕捉AI建设中更大份额的支出，客户不仅购买芯片，也购买连接和扩展这些芯片的系统。华尔街寻找新叙事：CPU，推理和智能体AI英伟达最熟悉的投资叙事是GPU，但华尔街正在要求更多。HSBC的Frank Lee此前写道，GPU动能已经成为“相对不那么有意义”的投资叙事，因为云公司AI资本开支正流向更多领域，包括内存，网络和服务器CPU。英伟达试图给出新的增长路径。随着AI从训练转向推理，并进一步进入智能体AI阶段，CPU的重要性上升。Jensen Huang在电话会上表示，未来可能会出现数十亿个AI智能体，推理硬件需求将随之增加。他称，“思考”发生在GPU上，而编排基本运行在CPU上。Colette Kress表示，Vera CPU为英伟达打开了一个全新的2000亿美元可服务市场。她还称，公司今年对CPU收入已有接近200亿美元的可见度，这将为英伟达成为全球领先CPU供应商奠定基础。英伟达的Vera CPU将与下一代Rubin GPU协同工作。Jensen Huang表示，公司预计销售“数百万个Rubin”，并且每两个Rubin将连接一个Vera。这意味着CPU并非简单替代GPU，而是嵌入英伟达的系统级销售模式。股东回报大幅提高，但仍有人嫌不够英伟达同时试图通过资本回报扩大投资者基础。公司宣布将股票回购计划增加800亿美元，加上此前授权中剩余的385亿美元，回购空间进一步扩大。财年第一季度，英伟达回购金额为193.1亿美元，是上一季度38.2亿美元的四倍多，也较上年同期增长37%。公司还将季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至0.25美元，隐含股息率从0.02%升至0.45%。这回应了部分投资者诉求。BofA的Vivek Arya此前写道，英伟达股票已被约78%的主动型基金经理持有，较大的既有持仓可能使未来股价上涨面临挑战；其他大型科技公司曾通过提高现金回报吸引股息和收入型投资者。但回报力度仍未完全满足市场。Jeffrey Favuzza称，对部分投资者而言，800亿美元回购“略低于预期”。据Birinyi Associates截至4月中旬的数据，只有苹果曾宣布过规模更大的回购授权。更大的考验在长期预期这份财报没有显示AI需求放缓，也没有显示毛利率承压，但它没有完全解除华尔街的长期疑虑。Gabelli Funds投资组合经理John Belton此前表示，英伟达是AI资本开支的主要受益者，但未来几年关键问题是这些资本开支是否能产生回报。他称，最新一轮财报后，超大规模云厂商今年AI支出趋势指向约7000亿美元。客户集中度也是风险点。Belton表示，英伟达约一半收入来自少数超大规模客户，而这些客户正在显著消耗自由现金流。投资者将关注英伟达是否能扩大客户基础。英伟达也在调整披露框架。公司将报告结构改为“数据中心”和“边缘计算”两大类，数据中心再细分为超大规模云厂商以及ACIE，即AI云，工业和企业。Founder ETFs投资组合经理Michael Monaghan称，这一变化显示出Jensen Huang眼中的增长方向，主权AI，企业和物理AI已经大到值得单独披露。因此，英伟达的问题不是业绩不强，而是强劲已被充分预期。对华尔街而言，下一步需要看到的不是又一次超预期，而是足以重新抬高长期增长曲线的新证据。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ANV":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"07388":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"NVDA":2,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"07788":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561608421303264,"gmtCreate":1778143131331,"gmtModify":1778143133697,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"C126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de94178c653ba423c43a47a954b37432","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"第一批要死的空头出现了","listText":"第一批要死的空头出现了","text":"第一批要死的空头出现了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561608421303264","repostId":"1162488996","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162488996","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1778141855,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1162488996?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-07 16:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权聚焦 | 英特尔IV百分位飙至100%历史极值！大单现213万美元熊市Put组合押注短线波动，远月864万美元买入深度实值Call彰显长期看多","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162488996","media":"期权女巫","summary":"英特尔收盘报113.01美元，涨4.49%。机构交易者构建了价值213万美元的熊市看跌期权组合，押注短期内股价波动或下行。同时，有交易者斥资864万美元买入远月深度实值看涨期权，彰显了对公司长期价值的坚定信心，并辅以超远月看跌期权进行对冲，反映出市场在剧烈波动预期下的多空分歧与谨慎心态。短线交易者押注波动或下跌，而长线资金则在进行看多布局的同时，买入保护性看跌期权以对冲风险。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英特尔收盘报113.01美元，涨4.49%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">近期英特尔期权市场出现显著的大单交易活动，呈现出短线博弈与长期布局并存的复杂格局。机构交易者构建了价值213万美元的熊市看跌期权组合，押注短期内股价波动或下行。同时，有交易者斥资864万美元买入远月深度实值看涨期权，彰显了对公司长期价值的坚定信心，并辅以超远月看跌期权进行对冲，反映出<strong>市场在剧烈波动预期下的多空分歧与谨慎心态。</strong></p><h3 id=\"id_3675535337\" style=\"text-align: left;\">期权指标分析</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1. <strong>隐含波动率与成交量分析</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前英特尔的隐含波动率（IV）高达85.86%，其IV百分位<strong>达到100.00%的极值</strong>，表明期权定价处于历史最高位，市场预期未来股价将出现剧烈波动。看跌/看涨成交量比率为0.87，结合大单数据，看涨期权总成交量（8946张）略高于看跌期权（6340张），显示多空交投活跃但方向性并不极端。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2. <strong>值得关注的未平仓合约</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在2026年5月15日到期的合约中，<strong>行权价120.0美元、100.0美元和95.0美元的看涨期权未平仓合约数分别高达30,770张、16,035张和14,826张。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/74e067d311dfee1c2868a6c5db3a4bfa\" tg-width=\"1755\" tg-height=\"717\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这些高持仓量区域可能成为未来股价上行的重要阻力或支撑位。</p><h3 id=\"id_397935552\" style=\"text-align: left;\">大单交易</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>整体方向与结构：</strong>市场呈现“短线博弈、远月多空对冲”的格局。短线交易者押注波动或下跌，而长线资金则在进行看多布局的同时，买入保护性看跌期权以对冲风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>关键大单解析：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1. 短线偏空押注：熊市看跌组合</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：同时买入2026年5月15日到期、行权价107.00美元和108.00美元的看跌期权各2,545张，净支出约<strong>213万美元</strong>。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：当前股价（113.01美元）高于行权价，此为买入虚值看跌期权，纯粹押注股价在短期内（至5月15日）下跌或波动率飙升。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT$  </a></strong></p><p><strong>‌‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/91f5c724b0345c1f68a76c531a326439\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"777\"/></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>2. 长期看多彰显信心：深度实值看涨期权</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：买入1,800张2026年7月17日到期、行权价65.00美元的看涨期权，成交额<strong>864万美元</strong>。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：当前股价远高于行权价，此为深度实值看涨期权，通常被视为利用杠杆进行长期股票替代或强烈看多的信号，而非短期投机。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/80735a908bfa46ed86ea4e4bf90da8df\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>3. 远月对冲与上行博弈</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：分别买入价值<strong>353.75万美元</strong>的2027年3月到期、行权价110美元看跌期权（虚值），以及<strong>213.6万美元</strong>的2026年9月到期、行权价130美元看涨期权（虚值）。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：进一步印证远月期权的多空对冲布局——前者用于长期保护或看跌，后者博取上行突破。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT$  </a></strong></p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ae16ec1feea19e67ba3795a72018872\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"738\"/></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>4. 近月方向博弈</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：近月（2026年5月8日到期）买入3,646张行权价112美元的看涨期权，成交额<strong>117万美元</strong>。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：当前股价接近行权价，属于对短期方向或事件性波动的直接押注，与前述看跌组合共同加剧短线不确定性。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/56e740382d8474786bfb25a5e529bde9\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"371\"/></p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_970378957\">总体策略参考</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">鉴于隐含波动率处于历史极值，期权价格昂贵，单纯卖出深度虚值（如行权价140美元以上的Call或90美元以下的Put）期权被行权的概率虽低，但需警惕波动率回落带来的合约价值衰减风险，且需承担高额保证金。对于风险承受能力有限的投资者，可以考虑构建价差策略（如熊市看涨价差或牛市看跌价差）来限制最大亏损，同时从高波动率环境中获利。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权聚焦 | 英特尔IV百分位飙至100%历史极值！大单现213万美元熊市Put组合押注短线波动，远月864万美元买入深度实值Call彰显长期看多</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权聚焦 | 英特尔IV百分位飙至100%历史极值！大单现213万美元熊市Put组合押注短线波动，远月864万美元买入深度实值Call彰显长期看多\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-07 16:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英特尔收盘报113.01美元，涨4.49%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">近期英特尔期权市场出现显著的大单交易活动，呈现出短线博弈与长期布局并存的复杂格局。机构交易者构建了价值213万美元的熊市看跌期权组合，押注短期内股价波动或下行。同时，有交易者斥资864万美元买入远月深度实值看涨期权，彰显了对公司长期价值的坚定信心，并辅以超远月看跌期权进行对冲，反映出<strong>市场在剧烈波动预期下的多空分歧与谨慎心态。</strong></p><h3 id=\"id_3675535337\" style=\"text-align: left;\">期权指标分析</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1. <strong>隐含波动率与成交量分析</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前英特尔的隐含波动率（IV）高达85.86%，其IV百分位<strong>达到100.00%的极值</strong>，表明期权定价处于历史最高位，市场预期未来股价将出现剧烈波动。看跌/看涨成交量比率为0.87，结合大单数据，看涨期权总成交量（8946张）略高于看跌期权（6340张），显示多空交投活跃但方向性并不极端。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2. <strong>值得关注的未平仓合约</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在2026年5月15日到期的合约中，<strong>行权价120.0美元、100.0美元和95.0美元的看涨期权未平仓合约数分别高达30,770张、16,035张和14,826张。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/74e067d311dfee1c2868a6c5db3a4bfa\" tg-width=\"1755\" tg-height=\"717\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这些高持仓量区域可能成为未来股价上行的重要阻力或支撑位。</p><h3 id=\"id_397935552\" style=\"text-align: left;\">大单交易</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>整体方向与结构：</strong>市场呈现“短线博弈、远月多空对冲”的格局。短线交易者押注波动或下跌，而长线资金则在进行看多布局的同时，买入保护性看跌期权以对冲风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>关键大单解析：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1. 短线偏空押注：熊市看跌组合</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：同时买入2026年5月15日到期、行权价107.00美元和108.00美元的看跌期权各2,545张，净支出约<strong>213万美元</strong>。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：当前股价（113.01美元）高于行权价，此为买入虚值看跌期权，纯粹押注股价在短期内（至5月15日）下跌或波动率飙升。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT$  </a></strong></p><p><strong>‌‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/91f5c724b0345c1f68a76c531a326439\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"777\"/></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>2. 长期看多彰显信心：深度实值看涨期权</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：买入1,800张2026年7月17日到期、行权价65.00美元的看涨期权，成交额<strong>864万美元</strong>。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：当前股价远高于行权价，此为深度实值看涨期权，通常被视为利用杠杆进行长期股票替代或强烈看多的信号，而非短期投机。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/80735a908bfa46ed86ea4e4bf90da8df\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>3. 远月对冲与上行博弈</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：分别买入价值<strong>353.75万美元</strong>的2027年3月到期、行权价110美元看跌期权（虚值），以及<strong>213.6万美元</strong>的2026年9月到期、行权价130美元看涨期权（虚值）。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：进一步印证远月期权的多空对冲布局——前者用于长期保护或看跌，后者博取上行突破。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT$  </a></strong></p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ae16ec1feea19e67ba3795a72018872\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"738\"/></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>4. 近月方向博弈</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：近月（2026年5月8日到期）买入3,646张行权价112美元的看涨期权，成交额<strong>117万美元</strong>。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：当前股价接近行权价，属于对短期方向或事件性波动的直接押注，与前述看跌组合共同加剧短线不确定性。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/56e740382d8474786bfb25a5e529bde9\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"371\"/></p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_970378957\">总体策略参考</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">鉴于隐含波动率处于历史极值，期权价格昂贵，单纯卖出深度虚值（如行权价140美元以上的Call或90美元以下的Put）期权被行权的概率虽低，但需警惕波动率回落带来的合约价值衰减风险，且需承担高额保证金。对于风险承受能力有限的投资者，可以考虑构建价差策略（如熊市看涨价差或牛市看跌价差）来限制最大亏损，同时从高波动率环境中获利。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f75603b44290c7d476d289df7f8b04ca","relate_stocks":{"ARMW":"Roundhill ARM WeeklyPay ETF","ARMG":"2倍做多ARM ETF- Leverage Shares","LINT":"Direxion Daily INTC Bull 2X ETF","INTW":"2倍做多INTC ETF-GraniteShares","INTC":"英特尔","ARMU":"2倍做多ARM ETF-T-REX"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162488996","content_text":"英特尔收盘报113.01美元，涨4.49%。近期英特尔期权市场出现显著的大单交易活动，呈现出短线博弈与长期布局并存的复杂格局。机构交易者构建了价值213万美元的熊市看跌期权组合，押注短期内股价波动或下行。同时，有交易者斥资864万美元买入远月深度实值看涨期权，彰显了对公司长期价值的坚定信心，并辅以超远月看跌期权进行对冲，反映出市场在剧烈波动预期下的多空分歧与谨慎心态。期权指标分析1. 隐含波动率与成交量分析当前英特尔的隐含波动率（IV）高达85.86%，其IV百分位达到100.00%的极值，表明期权定价处于历史最高位，市场预期未来股价将出现剧烈波动。看跌/看涨成交量比率为0.87，结合大单数据，看涨期权总成交量（8946张）略高于看跌期权（6340张），显示多空交投活跃但方向性并不极端。2. 值得关注的未平仓合约在2026年5月15日到期的合约中，行权价120.0美元、100.0美元和95.0美元的看涨期权未平仓合约数分别高达30,770张、16,035张和14,826张。这些高持仓量区域可能成为未来股价上行的重要阻力或支撑位。大单交易整体方向与结构：市场呈现“短线博弈、远月多空对冲”的格局。短线交易者押注波动或下跌，而长线资金则在进行看多布局的同时，买入保护性看跌期权以对冲风险。关键大单解析：1. 短线偏空押注：熊市看跌组合交易构成：同时买入2026年5月15日到期、行权价107.00美元和108.00美元的看跌期权各2,545张，净支出约213万美元。策略解读：当前股价（113.01美元）高于行权价，此为买入虚值看跌期权，纯粹押注股价在短期内（至5月15日）下跌或波动率飙升。‌$INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT$  ‌‌$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$  2. 长期看多彰显信心：深度实值看涨期权交易构成：买入1,800张2026年7月17日到期、行权价65.00美元的看涨期权，成交额864万美元。策略解读：当前股价远高于行权价，此为深度实值看涨期权，通常被视为利用杠杆进行长期股票替代或强烈看多的信号，而非短期投机。‌$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$  3. 远月对冲与上行博弈交易构成：分别买入价值353.75万美元的2027年3月到期、行权价110美元看跌期权（虚值），以及213.6万美元的2026年9月到期、行权价130美元看涨期权（虚值）。策略解读：进一步印证远月期权的多空对冲布局——前者用于长期保护或看跌，后者博取上行突破。‌$INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT$  ‌$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$  4. 近月方向博弈交易构成：近月（2026年5月8日到期）买入3,646张行权价112美元的看涨期权，成交额117万美元。策略解读：当前股价接近行权价，属于对短期方向或事件性波动的直接押注，与前述看跌组合共同加剧短线不确定性。‌$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$  总体策略参考鉴于隐含波动率处于历史极值，期权价格昂贵，单纯卖出深度虚值（如行权价140美元以上的Call或90美元以下的Put）期权被行权的概率虽低，但需警惕波动率回落带来的合约价值衰减风险，且需承担高额保证金。对于风险承受能力有限的投资者，可以考虑构建价差策略（如熊市看涨价差或牛市看跌价差）来限制最大亏损，同时从高波动率环境中获利。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":2,"ARMU":0.6,"LINT":0.6,"ARMW":0.6,"ARMG":0.6,"INTW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}