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05-28

$ST华谊(300027)$ 在你们创业板IPO第一天，我就知道你们是来圈钱的，今天才被打回原形，还是晚了，这类公司这类人群，应该更早被甄别出来。

05-25

你们累不累啊？大家都懒得叼你们这摊烂泥了

伊媒称伊美尚未达成谅解备忘录，鲁比奥则称协议仍可能于周一签署

05-21

理华尔街作甚？

英伟达业绩创下最佳的一次“超预期”，为何华尔街还嫌不“完美”？

05-19

神棍进化为搅屎棍

05-18

我呸

英伟达周三财报夜：决定AI牛市命运的一战来了！

05-07

第一批要死的空头出现了

期权聚焦 | 英特尔IV百分位飙至100%历史极值！大单现213万美元熊市Put组合押注短线波动，远月864万美元买入深度实值Call彰显长期看多

05-07

多吃点🍇，蛮酸的

重温泡沫巅峰的感觉？当前的美股涨的比1999年还快！

05-07

你们有完没完？差不多得了

美媒称伊朗将在周四回应美方提议，伊朗议长斥责其为“虚假媒体叙事”

04-30

又跌下来了，你能不能稳一点再放P

异动解读 | 应用光电(AAOI)盘中大涨6.55%，光通信板块情绪修复推动技术性反弹

04-24

上线后跌幅20%了，哈哈哈哈

广发证券：游戏用户付费意愿增强《异环》上线表现值得期待

04-07

哈哈哈哈哈哈哈

美媒：特朗普表示可能调整对伊朗的最后期限

04-01

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 阿斗

03-27

很无语……

特朗普推迟十天打击伊朗能源设施，最后期限延至4月6日，称美伊谈判“非常顺利”

2025-12-23

一通踏空后的风凉废话

疯狂的贵金属！金银一色，铂钯齐飞，短期一个大风险“近在眼前”

2025-11-25

美国国运啊，搞坏就玩完了

反击大空头！英伟达致信华尔街分析师，反驳会计丑闻等指控

2025-11-24

$上证指数(000001.SH)$ 你永远是最恶心的

2025-11-18

首要任务是：买点便宜的好货

2025-11-08

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 漂亮的锤子线

2025-10-21

跌跌更健康

现货金、银价格深度回调，分析师警示泡沫风险

2025-09-30

把抢走我的股份数还给我

Wolfspeed取消旧股并作为重组计划的一部分发行新股

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伊媒称伊美尚未达成谅解备忘录，鲁比奥则称协议仍可能于周一签署","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152925080","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"仍有条款存在争议。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社今天(5月25日)援引一名知情人士的话称，迄今为止美伊双方尚未达成最终谅解备忘录，仍有条款存在争议。鉴于美国过往谈判中屡次失信，伊朗对美方不抱任何乐观预期，即便达成协议，也会密切监督美方履约情况，一旦美方违背承诺，伊朗将保留全部谈判筹码予以反制。(CCTV国际时讯)</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一方面，据半岛电视台报道，美国国务卿鲁比奥表示：<strong>仍有希望与伊朗达成协议。在任何与伊朗达成的协议中，以色列都有权进行自卫。随着谈判的继续，与伊朗的潜在协议最早仍可能于周一签署。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伊媒称伊美尚未达成谅解备忘录，鲁比奥则称协议仍可能于周一签署</title>\n<style 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left;\">伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社今天(5月25日)援引一名知情人士的话称，迄今为止美伊双方尚未达成最终谅解备忘录，仍有条款存在争议。鉴于美国过往谈判中屡次失信，伊朗对美方不抱任何乐观预期，即便达成协议，也会密切监督美方履约情况，一旦美方违背承诺，伊朗将保留全部谈判筹码予以反制。(CCTV国际时讯)</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一方面，据半岛电视台报道，美国国务卿鲁比奥表示：<strong>仍有希望与伊朗达成协议。在任何与伊朗达成的协议中，以色列都有权进行自卫。随着谈判的继续，与伊朗的潜在协议最早仍可能于周一签署。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f19eed0dfe9b6f15725f2f7a21a5852","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152925080","content_text":"伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社今天(5月25日)援引一名知情人士的话称，迄今为止美伊双方尚未达成最终谅解备忘录，仍有条款存在争议。鉴于美国过往谈判中屡次失信，伊朗对美方不抱任何乐观预期，即便达成协议，也会密切监督美方履约情况，一旦美方违背承诺，伊朗将保留全部谈判筹码予以反制。(CCTV国际时讯)另一方面，据半岛电视台报道，美国国务卿鲁比奥表示：仍有希望与伊朗达成协议。在任何与伊朗达成的协议中，以色列都有权进行自卫。随着谈判的继续，与伊朗的潜在协议最早仍可能于周一签署。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":566523486848104,"gmtCreate":1779345724539,"gmtModify":1779345726894,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"理华尔街作甚？","listText":"理华尔街作甚？","text":"理华尔街作甚？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566523486848104","repostId":"2637047068","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2637047068","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1779344091,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2637047068?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-21 14:14","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"英伟达业绩创下最佳的一次“超预期”，为何华尔街还嫌不“完美”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2637047068","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"英伟达盘后下跌，当\"超预期\"成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>英伟达盘后下跌，当&#34;超预期&#34;成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达又一次交出“超预期业绩加上调指引”的成绩单，但市场反应显示，对全球AI龙头而言，强劲增长已不再自动等于股价上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达财年第一季度营收为816亿美元，高于市场预期的790亿美元，同比增长85%；调整后每股收益为1.87美元，高于预期的1.75美元。公司预计7月季度营收为910亿美元，也高于FactSet共识预期的873亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便如此，英伟达股价周三盘后最终下跌约1%。公司给出的调整后毛利率目标为75%，与最近一个季度持平，没有出现市场担忧的利润率收缩，但仍未能推动股价走高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Direxion产品与策略高级副总裁Ryan Lee写道，“市场要求世界最大公司做到完美。”Direxion资本市场负责人Jake Behan补充称，<strong>当预期已经如此之高时，即使一份强劲财报，如果没有实质性抬高长期前景，也可能压制股价。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1105007441\" style=\"text-align: left;\">业绩全面高于预期，但“惊喜”不再稀缺</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达本季度核心指标几乎全面超过华尔街预期。营收同比增速从上一季度的73.2%加快至85%，也高于去年11月季度62%的同比增速。调整后每股收益同样高于市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心仍是最大支柱。财年第一季度数据中心收入为752亿美元，同比增长92%，环比增长21%，高于FactSet预期的731亿美元。公司称增长来自Blackwell架构的持续强劲需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Investing.com分析师Thomas Monteiro认为，<strong>这是英伟达最近几个季度中“最干净的一次超预期”，因为业绩不仅跨过了很高的门槛，也回应了市场围绕AI交易的一些更大疑问。</strong>他认为，目前没有看到需求放缓的明显迹象。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但投资者的反应更谨慎。Jefferies交易台分析师Jeffrey Favuzza将盘后走势称为一场<strong>“knife fight”</strong>。他认为，这<strong>份财报之后，买方对2027年和2028年的盈利预期未必会明显上调。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1051977213\" style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心仍在加速，网络业务成为关键支撑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达增长的质量，更多体现在数据中心内部结构上。除GPU需求外，网络业务正在成为更重要的收入来源。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司本季度数据中心网络收入达到148亿美元，创下纪录，同比增长199%，环比增长35%，高于分析师预期的140亿美元。更广义的计算与网络业务收入为756亿美元，同比增长88%，环比增长21%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CFO Colette Kress在电话会上表示，<strong>Blackwell架构已经“无处不在”，并被主要超大规模云厂商，云服务商和主要模型开发商采用和部署。她还提到，OpenAI的新GPT-5.5模型依赖Blackwell。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这对市场很重要。AI基础设施支出不再只是购买单一芯片，而是转向系统，网络和集群能力。Monteiro称，英伟达正在捕捉AI建设中更大份额的支出，客户不仅购买芯片，也购买连接和扩展这些芯片的系统。</p><h2 id=\"id_3870000170\" style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街寻找新叙事：CPU，推理和智能体AI</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达最熟悉的投资叙事是GPU，但华尔街正在要求更多。HSBC的Frank Lee此前写道，GPU动能已经成为“相对不那么有意义”的投资叙事，因为云公司AI资本开支正流向更多领域，包括内存，网络和服务器CPU。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达试图给出新的增长路径。随着AI从训练转向推理，并进一步进入智能体AI阶段，CPU的重要性上升。Jensen Huang在电话会上表示，未来可能会出现数十亿个AI智能体，推理硬件需求将随之增加。他称，“思考”发生在GPU上，而编排基本运行在CPU上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Colette Kress表示，Vera CPU为英伟达打开了一个全新的2000亿美元可服务市场。</strong>她还称，公司今年对CPU收入已有接近200亿美元的可见度，这将为英伟达成为全球领先CPU供应商奠定基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达的Vera CPU将与下一代Rubin GPU协同工作。Jensen Huang表示，公司预计销售“数百万个Rubin”，并且每两个Rubin将连接一个Vera。这意味着CPU并非简单替代GPU，而是嵌入英伟达的系统级销售模式。</p><h2 id=\"id_1963357280\" style=\"text-align: left;\">股东回报大幅提高，但仍有人嫌不够</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达同时试图通过资本回报扩大投资者基础。公司宣布将股票回购计划增加800亿美元，加上此前授权中剩余的385亿美元，回购空间进一步扩大。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财年第一季度，英伟达回购金额为193.1亿美元，是上一季度38.2亿美元的四倍多，也较上年同期增长37%。公司还将季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至0.25美元，隐含股息率从0.02%升至0.45%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这回应了部分投资者诉求。BofA的Vivek Arya此前写道，英伟达股票已被约78%的主动型基金经理持有，较大的既有持仓可能使未来股价上涨面临挑战；其他大型科技公司曾通过提高现金回报吸引股息和收入型投资者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但回报力度仍未完全满足市场。Jeffrey Favuzza称，<strong>对部分投资者而言，800亿美元回购“略低于预期”。</strong>据Birinyi Associates截至4月中旬的数据，只有苹果曾宣布过规模更大的回购授权。</p><h2 id=\"id_1474008724\" style=\"text-align: left;\">更大的考验在长期预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份财报没有显示AI需求放缓，也没有显示毛利率承压，但它没有完全解除华尔街的长期疑虑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Gabelli Funds投资组合经理John Belton此前表示，英伟达是AI资本开支的主要受益者，但未来几年关键问题是这些资本开支是否能产生回报。他称，最新一轮财报后，超大规模云厂商今年AI支出趋势指向约7000亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>客户集中度也是风险点。</strong>Belton表示，英伟达约一半收入来自少数超大规模客户，而这些客户正在显著消耗自由现金流。投资者将关注英伟达是否能扩大客户基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达也在调整披露框架。公司将报告结构改为“数据中心”和“边缘计算”两大类，数据中心再细分为超大规模云厂商以及ACIE，即AI云，工业和企业。Founder ETFs投资组合经理Michael Monaghan称，这一变化显示出Jensen Huang眼中的增长方向，主权AI，企业和物理AI已经大到值得单独披露。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，英伟达的问题不是业绩不强，而是强劲已被充分预期。对华尔街而言，下一步需要看到的不是又一次超预期，而是足以重新抬高长期增长曲线的新证据。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达业绩创下最佳的一次“超预期”，为何华尔街还嫌不“完美”？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达业绩创下最佳的一次“超预期”，为何华尔街还嫌不“完美”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-21 14:14</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>英伟达盘后下跌，当&#34;超预期&#34;成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达又一次交出“超预期业绩加上调指引”的成绩单，但市场反应显示，对全球AI龙头而言，强劲增长已不再自动等于股价上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达财年第一季度营收为816亿美元，高于市场预期的790亿美元，同比增长85%；调整后每股收益为1.87美元，高于预期的1.75美元。公司预计7月季度营收为910亿美元，也高于FactSet共识预期的873亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便如此，英伟达股价周三盘后最终下跌约1%。公司给出的调整后毛利率目标为75%，与最近一个季度持平，没有出现市场担忧的利润率收缩，但仍未能推动股价走高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Direxion产品与策略高级副总裁Ryan Lee写道，“市场要求世界最大公司做到完美。”Direxion资本市场负责人Jake Behan补充称，<strong>当预期已经如此之高时，即使一份强劲财报，如果没有实质性抬高长期前景，也可能压制股价。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1105007441\" style=\"text-align: left;\">业绩全面高于预期，但“惊喜”不再稀缺</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达本季度核心指标几乎全面超过华尔街预期。营收同比增速从上一季度的73.2%加快至85%，也高于去年11月季度62%的同比增速。调整后每股收益同样高于市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心仍是最大支柱。财年第一季度数据中心收入为752亿美元，同比增长92%，环比增长21%，高于FactSet预期的731亿美元。公司称增长来自Blackwell架构的持续强劲需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Investing.com分析师Thomas Monteiro认为，<strong>这是英伟达最近几个季度中“最干净的一次超预期”，因为业绩不仅跨过了很高的门槛，也回应了市场围绕AI交易的一些更大疑问。</strong>他认为，目前没有看到需求放缓的明显迹象。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但投资者的反应更谨慎。Jefferies交易台分析师Jeffrey Favuzza将盘后走势称为一场<strong>“knife fight”</strong>。他认为，这<strong>份财报之后，买方对2027年和2028年的盈利预期未必会明显上调。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1051977213\" style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心仍在加速，网络业务成为关键支撑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达增长的质量，更多体现在数据中心内部结构上。除GPU需求外，网络业务正在成为更重要的收入来源。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司本季度数据中心网络收入达到148亿美元，创下纪录，同比增长199%，环比增长35%，高于分析师预期的140亿美元。更广义的计算与网络业务收入为756亿美元，同比增长88%，环比增长21%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CFO Colette Kress在电话会上表示，<strong>Blackwell架构已经“无处不在”，并被主要超大规模云厂商，云服务商和主要模型开发商采用和部署。她还提到，OpenAI的新GPT-5.5模型依赖Blackwell。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这对市场很重要。AI基础设施支出不再只是购买单一芯片，而是转向系统，网络和集群能力。Monteiro称，英伟达正在捕捉AI建设中更大份额的支出，客户不仅购买芯片，也购买连接和扩展这些芯片的系统。</p><h2 id=\"id_3870000170\" style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街寻找新叙事：CPU，推理和智能体AI</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达最熟悉的投资叙事是GPU，但华尔街正在要求更多。HSBC的Frank Lee此前写道，GPU动能已经成为“相对不那么有意义”的投资叙事，因为云公司AI资本开支正流向更多领域，包括内存，网络和服务器CPU。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达试图给出新的增长路径。随着AI从训练转向推理，并进一步进入智能体AI阶段，CPU的重要性上升。Jensen Huang在电话会上表示，未来可能会出现数十亿个AI智能体，推理硬件需求将随之增加。他称，“思考”发生在GPU上，而编排基本运行在CPU上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Colette Kress表示，Vera CPU为英伟达打开了一个全新的2000亿美元可服务市场。</strong>她还称，公司今年对CPU收入已有接近200亿美元的可见度，这将为英伟达成为全球领先CPU供应商奠定基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达的Vera CPU将与下一代Rubin GPU协同工作。Jensen Huang表示，公司预计销售“数百万个Rubin”，并且每两个Rubin将连接一个Vera。这意味着CPU并非简单替代GPU，而是嵌入英伟达的系统级销售模式。</p><h2 id=\"id_1963357280\" style=\"text-align: left;\">股东回报大幅提高，但仍有人嫌不够</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达同时试图通过资本回报扩大投资者基础。公司宣布将股票回购计划增加800亿美元，加上此前授权中剩余的385亿美元，回购空间进一步扩大。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财年第一季度，英伟达回购金额为193.1亿美元，是上一季度38.2亿美元的四倍多，也较上年同期增长37%。公司还将季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至0.25美元，隐含股息率从0.02%升至0.45%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这回应了部分投资者诉求。BofA的Vivek Arya此前写道，英伟达股票已被约78%的主动型基金经理持有，较大的既有持仓可能使未来股价上涨面临挑战；其他大型科技公司曾通过提高现金回报吸引股息和收入型投资者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但回报力度仍未完全满足市场。Jeffrey Favuzza称，<strong>对部分投资者而言，800亿美元回购“略低于预期”。</strong>据Birinyi Associates截至4月中旬的数据，只有苹果曾宣布过规模更大的回购授权。</p><h2 id=\"id_1474008724\" style=\"text-align: left;\">更大的考验在长期预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份财报没有显示AI需求放缓，也没有显示毛利率承压，但它没有完全解除华尔街的长期疑虑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Gabelli Funds投资组合经理John Belton此前表示，英伟达是AI资本开支的主要受益者，但未来几年关键问题是这些资本开支是否能产生回报。他称，最新一轮财报后，超大规模云厂商今年AI支出趋势指向约7000亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>客户集中度也是风险点。</strong>Belton表示，英伟达约一半收入来自少数超大规模客户，而这些客户正在显著消耗自由现金流。投资者将关注英伟达是否能扩大客户基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达也在调整披露框架。公司将报告结构改为“数据中心”和“边缘计算”两大类，数据中心再细分为超大规模云厂商以及ACIE，即AI云，工业和企业。Founder ETFs投资组合经理Michael Monaghan称，这一变化显示出Jensen Huang眼中的增长方向，主权AI，企业和物理AI已经大到值得单独披露。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，英伟达的问题不是业绩不强，而是强劲已被充分预期。对华尔街而言，下一步需要看到的不是又一次超预期，而是足以重新抬高长期增长曲线的新证据。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94518631ea8630131b1a8562c1b55bdd","relate_stocks":{"IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU2487616109.SGD":"JPM AMERICA EQUITY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","SG9999014898.SGD":"United Global Quality Growth Fund Dis SGD","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0210528500.USD":"JPM AMERICA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","LU1323610961.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - LONG TERM THEMES (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4605":"半导体精选","SGXZ99366536.SGD":"United Global Innovation A Acc SGD-H","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE00B4YYXB79.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772797","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2637047068","content_text":"英伟达盘后下跌，当\"超预期\"成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。英伟达又一次交出“超预期业绩加上调指引”的成绩单，但市场反应显示，对全球AI龙头而言，强劲增长已不再自动等于股价上涨。英伟达财年第一季度营收为816亿美元，高于市场预期的790亿美元，同比增长85%；调整后每股收益为1.87美元，高于预期的1.75美元。公司预计7月季度营收为910亿美元，也高于FactSet共识预期的873亿美元。即便如此，英伟达股价周三盘后最终下跌约1%。公司给出的调整后毛利率目标为75%，与最近一个季度持平，没有出现市场担忧的利润率收缩，但仍未能推动股价走高。Direxion产品与策略高级副总裁Ryan Lee写道，“市场要求世界最大公司做到完美。”Direxion资本市场负责人Jake Behan补充称，当预期已经如此之高时，即使一份强劲财报，如果没有实质性抬高长期前景，也可能压制股价。业绩全面高于预期，但“惊喜”不再稀缺英伟达本季度核心指标几乎全面超过华尔街预期。营收同比增速从上一季度的73.2%加快至85%，也高于去年11月季度62%的同比增速。调整后每股收益同样高于市场预期。数据中心仍是最大支柱。财年第一季度数据中心收入为752亿美元，同比增长92%，环比增长21%，高于FactSet预期的731亿美元。公司称增长来自Blackwell架构的持续强劲需求。Investing.com分析师Thomas Monteiro认为，这是英伟达最近几个季度中“最干净的一次超预期”，因为业绩不仅跨过了很高的门槛，也回应了市场围绕AI交易的一些更大疑问。他认为，目前没有看到需求放缓的明显迹象。但投资者的反应更谨慎。Jefferies交易台分析师Jeffrey Favuzza将盘后走势称为一场“knife fight”。他认为，这份财报之后，买方对2027年和2028年的盈利预期未必会明显上调。数据中心仍在加速，网络业务成为关键支撑英伟达增长的质量，更多体现在数据中心内部结构上。除GPU需求外，网络业务正在成为更重要的收入来源。公司本季度数据中心网络收入达到148亿美元，创下纪录，同比增长199%，环比增长35%，高于分析师预期的140亿美元。更广义的计算与网络业务收入为756亿美元，同比增长88%，环比增长21%。CFO Colette Kress在电话会上表示，Blackwell架构已经“无处不在”，并被主要超大规模云厂商，云服务商和主要模型开发商采用和部署。她还提到，OpenAI的新GPT-5.5模型依赖Blackwell。这对市场很重要。AI基础设施支出不再只是购买单一芯片，而是转向系统，网络和集群能力。Monteiro称，英伟达正在捕捉AI建设中更大份额的支出，客户不仅购买芯片，也购买连接和扩展这些芯片的系统。华尔街寻找新叙事：CPU，推理和智能体AI英伟达最熟悉的投资叙事是GPU，但华尔街正在要求更多。HSBC的Frank Lee此前写道，GPU动能已经成为“相对不那么有意义”的投资叙事，因为云公司AI资本开支正流向更多领域，包括内存，网络和服务器CPU。英伟达试图给出新的增长路径。随着AI从训练转向推理，并进一步进入智能体AI阶段，CPU的重要性上升。Jensen Huang在电话会上表示，未来可能会出现数十亿个AI智能体，推理硬件需求将随之增加。他称，“思考”发生在GPU上，而编排基本运行在CPU上。Colette Kress表示，Vera CPU为英伟达打开了一个全新的2000亿美元可服务市场。她还称，公司今年对CPU收入已有接近200亿美元的可见度，这将为英伟达成为全球领先CPU供应商奠定基础。英伟达的Vera CPU将与下一代Rubin GPU协同工作。Jensen Huang表示，公司预计销售“数百万个Rubin”，并且每两个Rubin将连接一个Vera。这意味着CPU并非简单替代GPU，而是嵌入英伟达的系统级销售模式。股东回报大幅提高，但仍有人嫌不够英伟达同时试图通过资本回报扩大投资者基础。公司宣布将股票回购计划增加800亿美元，加上此前授权中剩余的385亿美元，回购空间进一步扩大。财年第一季度，英伟达回购金额为193.1亿美元，是上一季度38.2亿美元的四倍多，也较上年同期增长37%。公司还将季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至0.25美元，隐含股息率从0.02%升至0.45%。这回应了部分投资者诉求。BofA的Vivek Arya此前写道，英伟达股票已被约78%的主动型基金经理持有，较大的既有持仓可能使未来股价上涨面临挑战；其他大型科技公司曾通过提高现金回报吸引股息和收入型投资者。但回报力度仍未完全满足市场。Jeffrey Favuzza称，对部分投资者而言，800亿美元回购“略低于预期”。据Birinyi Associates截至4月中旬的数据，只有苹果曾宣布过规模更大的回购授权。更大的考验在长期预期这份财报没有显示AI需求放缓，也没有显示毛利率承压，但它没有完全解除华尔街的长期疑虑。Gabelli Funds投资组合经理John Belton此前表示，英伟达是AI资本开支的主要受益者，但未来几年关键问题是这些资本开支是否能产生回报。他称，最新一轮财报后，超大规模云厂商今年AI支出趋势指向约7000亿美元。客户集中度也是风险点。Belton表示，英伟达约一半收入来自少数超大规模客户，而这些客户正在显著消耗自由现金流。投资者将关注英伟达是否能扩大客户基础。英伟达也在调整披露框架。公司将报告结构改为“数据中心”和“边缘计算”两大类，数据中心再细分为超大规模云厂商以及ACIE，即AI云，工业和企业。Founder ETFs投资组合经理Michael Monaghan称，这一变化显示出Jensen Huang眼中的增长方向，主权AI，企业和物理AI已经大到值得单独披露。因此，英伟达的问题不是业绩不强，而是强劲已被充分预期。对华尔街而言，下一步需要看到的不是又一次超预期，而是足以重新抬高长期增长曲线的新证据。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDY":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"07388":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDA":2,"NVDG":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"07788":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":565825932980552,"gmtCreate":1779175508973,"gmtModify":1779175943564,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"神棍进化为搅屎棍","listText":"神棍进化为搅屎棍","text":"神棍进化为搅屎棍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/565825932980552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":565588730515704,"gmtCreate":1779117494384,"gmtModify":1779118323785,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"我呸","listText":"我呸","text":"我呸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/565588730515704","repostId":"2636040182","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2636040182","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1779090103,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2636040182?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-18 15:41","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"英伟达周三财报夜：决定AI牛市命运的一战来了！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2636040182","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛亮起“黄灯”警告：目前半导体板块技术面超买程度创2000年以来之最，且罕见出现股价与波动率同步走高。市场对英伟达7月指引及算力需求的预期极高，期权市场极端看涨与尾部对冲并存。由于美股今年涨势高度集中于少数AI权重股，广度存在隐患，英伟达财报的双向风险已显著放大。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>高盛亮起“黄灯”警告：目前半导体板块技术面超买程度创2000年以来之最，且罕见出现股价与波动率同步走高。市场对英伟达7月指引及算力需求的预期极高，期权市场极端看涨与尾部对冲并存。由于美股今年涨势高度集中于少数AI权重股，广度存在隐患，英伟达财报的双向风险已显著放大。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达将于美东时间5月20日（周三）盘后发布季报，这是当前AI牛市周期的一次关键压力测试。半导体板块技术面严重超买、期权仓位高度偏向看涨，加之罕见的&#34;股价与隐含波动率同步走高&#34;信号，使这一财报窗口的双向风险较以往显著放大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛TMT首席专家Peter Callahan周一发布题为&#34;黄灯&#34;的简报，指出纳斯达克100指数（NDX）与费城半导体指数（SOX）上周录得本季度首个下跌周；10年期美债收益率升至约4.60%，创一年多来最大单周涨幅；油价回升至约每桶109美元；VIX同步走高。他指出，<strong>AI与半导体主题当前面临的核心矛盾是：基本面依然强劲，而技术面压力持续累积。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">期权分析机构SpotGamma在近期报告中指出，市场正出现罕见的&#34;股价上涨、波动率同步攀升&#34;并行格局——通常而言，二者应呈反向关系。这一信号表明，交易者在追涨的同时也在为大幅波动支付保护溢价。英伟达财报的隐含波动幅度目前已达6%，市场注意力高度聚焦于这一时间节点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a1e2337b20aeef89405d8a6597f776b\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"623\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报结果及前瞻指引将直接检验市场对AI算力超级周期的预判成色。鉴于英伟达与半导体及更广泛科技板块的高度相关性，其财报表现无论向好还是向坏，均将在市场层面引发广泛联动。</p><h2 id=\"1999-2000\">技术面发出1999/2000年以来最极端警示</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本轮半导体涨势的量级与速度已将技术面推至历史性超买水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛数据显示，SOX指数自3月底低点以来已累计上涨约70%，沿途新增市值逾5万亿美元。驱动因素包括地缘政治紧张情绪的阶段性缓解、超预期的企业盈利——例如AMAT上调全年业绩指引幅度超出预期、CSCO产品订单实现同比35%的增长——以及投资者对AI算力需求的信心增强；半导体行业盈利预期年初至今已被上调逾25%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，Peter Callahan特别点出，<strong>SOX指数目前已高于其200日均线约60%，是自1999/2000年互联网泡沫高峰以来从未出现过的偏离幅度。</strong>他还指出，高盛高动量因子组合今年已有12个交易日出现单日±5%以上的波动，占全年交易日近15%；杠杆ETF及期权产品的快速扩张则进一步放大了这种双向弹性。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a36f9526614c6a4f937fbc06448114ad\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"628\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#34;在本周财报季（英伟达5月20日）结束、进入夏季交易之前，牢记这些战术动态是值得的，&#34;Callahan写道。高盛交易台整体对AI与半导体主题仍持中期建设性立场，但在战术层面建议投资者对技术面挑战保持审慎。</p><h2 id=\"6c5cb624\">英伟达财报：前瞻指引或比当季业绩更关键</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场对英伟达的基本面前景依然乐观，但近期股价走势已在一定程度上透支了部分预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据高盛英伟达财报前瞻报告，分析师普遍预计英伟达本季度收入将超出市场预测约20亿美元——该公司历史上的超预期幅度通常在2%至3%之间。<strong>市场更关注的是对下一季度的前瞻指引，</strong>当前分析师一致预期约为860亿美元，环比增幅约9%。其他聚焦方向包括：英伟达约1万亿美元的数据中心累计收入指引能否存在进一步上行空间，以及Agentic AI推理需求加速的叙事——尤其是其预计于2026年下半年开始发货的纯CPU机架产品。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从近期价格走势来看，英伟达已连续7个交易日上涨，区间涨幅达20%，是近两年来最长连涨周期；自3月底低点以来累计新增市值约1.7万亿美元。然而，高盛数据同时显示，英伟达过去5次财报公布后的次个交易日（T+1），有4次出现下跌，自2022年5月以来，财报触发的大幅单日上涨实际上从未出现过。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88218154fef6886fa8c3c0db1a0ef58a\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"630\"/></p><h2 id=\"16b36633\">期权市场：极端看涨押注与尾部对冲同步就位</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">期权仓位结构呈现出一组内在矛盾的信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据SpotGamma数据，整体持仓方向依然极度偏向看涨，交易者持续将英伟达看涨期权向更高行权价滚动，<strong>看涨期权偏斜（call skew）维持在90日历史区间高端，而下行保护需求极为有限。</strong>据22V Research援引数据，上周五标普500看涨期权名义成交额创下2.6万亿美元的历史纪录，看涨期权占全部期权成交量的比例高达60%；费城半导体指数RSI亦升至2000年3月以来的高位。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd66cc208451fa186e387522427abbf4\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"431\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，针对下行风险的对冲布局也在悄然展开。SpotGamma指出，围绕标普500（SPY）、半导体ETF（SMH）及DRAM相关资产的大额看跌期权结构及买入行为明显增加，且集中于深度虚值行权价区间，显示其功能更接近尾部风险对冲，而非单纯的方向性押注。&#34;市场参与者并非看空英伟达，但对下行情景的准备并非微不足道，&#34;SpotGamma在报告中写道，&#34;任何方向性的转变几乎都将迅速波及更广泛的市场。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SpotGamma补充指出，英伟达自3月低点已累计上涨逾35%，当前看涨期权仓位的规模意味着，一旦财报令市场失望或引发大规模获利了结，有可能触发显著的方向性逆转。</p><h2 id=\"72e2cbe0\">市场广度隐患：涨势正被少数股票支撑</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在半导体与大型科技股的强势表现之下，美股整体参与度的匮乏正在形成结构性隐忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Peter Callahan在报告中指出，尽管标普500年初至今上涨约8%，但仅约52%的成分股录得正收益。年内明显落后的领域涵盖住宅地产、医疗器械、无政府业务敞口的工程建筑、联邦IT服务、软件与服务、独立发电商、餐饮连锁、商业地产经纪及保险经纪等多个板块。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Callahan坦言，审视这些板块的走势图时，令他质疑当前市场的表现究竟体现的是整体&#34;健康&#34;，还是不过是投资者被迫将资金集中于少数大市值AI股票的&#34;资金来源&#34;效应。Oppenheimer股票衍生品团队同样指出，过去一个月内标普500成分股中仅约五分之一跑赢指数，离散度指数升至逾一年来的最高水平，而隐含相关性则接近年初至今的低点。高盛机构经纪部门（PB）最新数据亦显示，科技板块近期已出现明显的&#34;风险撤出&#34;动作。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达周三财报夜：决定AI牛市命运的一战来了！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达周三财报夜：决定AI牛市命运的一战来了！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-18 15:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>高盛亮起“黄灯”警告：目前半导体板块技术面超买程度创2000年以来之最，且罕见出现股价与波动率同步走高。市场对英伟达7月指引及算力需求的预期极高，期权市场极端看涨与尾部对冲并存。由于美股今年涨势高度集中于少数AI权重股，广度存在隐患，英伟达财报的双向风险已显著放大。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达将于美东时间5月20日（周三）盘后发布季报，这是当前AI牛市周期的一次关键压力测试。半导体板块技术面严重超买、期权仓位高度偏向看涨，加之罕见的&#34;股价与隐含波动率同步走高&#34;信号，使这一财报窗口的双向风险较以往显著放大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛TMT首席专家Peter Callahan周一发布题为&#34;黄灯&#34;的简报，指出纳斯达克100指数（NDX）与费城半导体指数（SOX）上周录得本季度首个下跌周；10年期美债收益率升至约4.60%，创一年多来最大单周涨幅；油价回升至约每桶109美元；VIX同步走高。他指出，<strong>AI与半导体主题当前面临的核心矛盾是：基本面依然强劲，而技术面压力持续累积。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">期权分析机构SpotGamma在近期报告中指出，市场正出现罕见的&#34;股价上涨、波动率同步攀升&#34;并行格局——通常而言，二者应呈反向关系。这一信号表明，交易者在追涨的同时也在为大幅波动支付保护溢价。英伟达财报的隐含波动幅度目前已达6%，市场注意力高度聚焦于这一时间节点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a1e2337b20aeef89405d8a6597f776b\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"623\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报结果及前瞻指引将直接检验市场对AI算力超级周期的预判成色。鉴于英伟达与半导体及更广泛科技板块的高度相关性，其财报表现无论向好还是向坏，均将在市场层面引发广泛联动。</p><h2 id=\"1999-2000\">技术面发出1999/2000年以来最极端警示</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本轮半导体涨势的量级与速度已将技术面推至历史性超买水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛数据显示，SOX指数自3月底低点以来已累计上涨约70%，沿途新增市值逾5万亿美元。驱动因素包括地缘政治紧张情绪的阶段性缓解、超预期的企业盈利——例如AMAT上调全年业绩指引幅度超出预期、CSCO产品订单实现同比35%的增长——以及投资者对AI算力需求的信心增强；半导体行业盈利预期年初至今已被上调逾25%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，Peter Callahan特别点出，<strong>SOX指数目前已高于其200日均线约60%，是自1999/2000年互联网泡沫高峰以来从未出现过的偏离幅度。</strong>他还指出，高盛高动量因子组合今年已有12个交易日出现单日±5%以上的波动，占全年交易日近15%；杠杆ETF及期权产品的快速扩张则进一步放大了这种双向弹性。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a36f9526614c6a4f937fbc06448114ad\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"628\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#34;在本周财报季（英伟达5月20日）结束、进入夏季交易之前，牢记这些战术动态是值得的，&#34;Callahan写道。高盛交易台整体对AI与半导体主题仍持中期建设性立场，但在战术层面建议投资者对技术面挑战保持审慎。</p><h2 id=\"6c5cb624\">英伟达财报：前瞻指引或比当季业绩更关键</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场对英伟达的基本面前景依然乐观，但近期股价走势已在一定程度上透支了部分预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据高盛英伟达财报前瞻报告，分析师普遍预计英伟达本季度收入将超出市场预测约20亿美元——该公司历史上的超预期幅度通常在2%至3%之间。<strong>市场更关注的是对下一季度的前瞻指引，</strong>当前分析师一致预期约为860亿美元，环比增幅约9%。其他聚焦方向包括：英伟达约1万亿美元的数据中心累计收入指引能否存在进一步上行空间，以及Agentic AI推理需求加速的叙事——尤其是其预计于2026年下半年开始发货的纯CPU机架产品。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从近期价格走势来看，英伟达已连续7个交易日上涨，区间涨幅达20%，是近两年来最长连涨周期；自3月底低点以来累计新增市值约1.7万亿美元。然而，高盛数据同时显示，英伟达过去5次财报公布后的次个交易日（T+1），有4次出现下跌，自2022年5月以来，财报触发的大幅单日上涨实际上从未出现过。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88218154fef6886fa8c3c0db1a0ef58a\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"630\"/></p><h2 id=\"16b36633\">期权市场：极端看涨押注与尾部对冲同步就位</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">期权仓位结构呈现出一组内在矛盾的信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据SpotGamma数据，整体持仓方向依然极度偏向看涨，交易者持续将英伟达看涨期权向更高行权价滚动，<strong>看涨期权偏斜（call skew）维持在90日历史区间高端，而下行保护需求极为有限。</strong>据22V Research援引数据，上周五标普500看涨期权名义成交额创下2.6万亿美元的历史纪录，看涨期权占全部期权成交量的比例高达60%；费城半导体指数RSI亦升至2000年3月以来的高位。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd66cc208451fa186e387522427abbf4\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"431\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，针对下行风险的对冲布局也在悄然展开。SpotGamma指出，围绕标普500（SPY）、半导体ETF（SMH）及DRAM相关资产的大额看跌期权结构及买入行为明显增加，且集中于深度虚值行权价区间，显示其功能更接近尾部风险对冲，而非单纯的方向性押注。&#34;市场参与者并非看空英伟达，但对下行情景的准备并非微不足道，&#34;SpotGamma在报告中写道，&#34;任何方向性的转变几乎都将迅速波及更广泛的市场。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SpotGamma补充指出，英伟达自3月低点已累计上涨逾35%，当前看涨期权仓位的规模意味着，一旦财报令市场失望或引发大规模获利了结，有可能触发显著的方向性逆转。</p><h2 id=\"72e2cbe0\">市场广度隐患：涨势正被少数股票支撑</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在半导体与大型科技股的强势表现之下，美股整体参与度的匮乏正在形成结构性隐忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Peter Callahan在报告中指出，尽管标普500年初至今上涨约8%，但仅约52%的成分股录得正收益。年内明显落后的领域涵盖住宅地产、医疗器械、无政府业务敞口的工程建筑、联邦IT服务、软件与服务、独立发电商、餐饮连锁、商业地产经纪及保险经纪等多个板块。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Callahan坦言，审视这些板块的走势图时，令他质疑当前市场的表现究竟体现的是整体&#34;健康&#34;，还是不过是投资者被迫将资金集中于少数大市值AI股票的&#34;资金来源&#34;效应。Oppenheimer股票衍生品团队同样指出，过去一个月内标普500成分股中仅约五分之一跑赢指数，离散度指数升至逾一年来的最高水平，而隐含相关性则接近年初至今的低点。高盛机构经纪部门（PB）最新数据亦显示，科技板块近期已出现明显的&#34;风险撤出&#34;动作。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","LU0265550359.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU1037948541.HKD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1791710582.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD (SGD/USD hedged)","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","LU1791710400.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772508","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2636040182","content_text":"高盛亮起“黄灯”警告：目前半导体板块技术面超买程度创2000年以来之最，且罕见出现股价与波动率同步走高。市场对英伟达7月指引及算力需求的预期极高，期权市场极端看涨与尾部对冲并存。由于美股今年涨势高度集中于少数AI权重股，广度存在隐患，英伟达财报的双向风险已显著放大。英伟达将于美东时间5月20日（周三）盘后发布季报，这是当前AI牛市周期的一次关键压力测试。半导体板块技术面严重超买、期权仓位高度偏向看涨，加之罕见的\"股价与隐含波动率同步走高\"信号，使这一财报窗口的双向风险较以往显著放大。高盛TMT首席专家Peter Callahan周一发布题为\"黄灯\"的简报，指出纳斯达克100指数（NDX）与费城半导体指数（SOX）上周录得本季度首个下跌周；10年期美债收益率升至约4.60%，创一年多来最大单周涨幅；油价回升至约每桶109美元；VIX同步走高。他指出，AI与半导体主题当前面临的核心矛盾是：基本面依然强劲，而技术面压力持续累积。期权分析机构SpotGamma在近期报告中指出，市场正出现罕见的\"股价上涨、波动率同步攀升\"并行格局——通常而言，二者应呈反向关系。这一信号表明，交易者在追涨的同时也在为大幅波动支付保护溢价。英伟达财报的隐含波动幅度目前已达6%，市场注意力高度聚焦于这一时间节点。财报结果及前瞻指引将直接检验市场对AI算力超级周期的预判成色。鉴于英伟达与半导体及更广泛科技板块的高度相关性，其财报表现无论向好还是向坏，均将在市场层面引发广泛联动。技术面发出1999/2000年以来最极端警示本轮半导体涨势的量级与速度已将技术面推至历史性超买水平。高盛数据显示，SOX指数自3月底低点以来已累计上涨约70%，沿途新增市值逾5万亿美元。驱动因素包括地缘政治紧张情绪的阶段性缓解、超预期的企业盈利——例如AMAT上调全年业绩指引幅度超出预期、CSCO产品订单实现同比35%的增长——以及投资者对AI算力需求的信心增强；半导体行业盈利预期年初至今已被上调逾25%。然而，Peter Callahan特别点出，SOX指数目前已高于其200日均线约60%，是自1999/2000年互联网泡沫高峰以来从未出现过的偏离幅度。他还指出，高盛高动量因子组合今年已有12个交易日出现单日±5%以上的波动，占全年交易日近15%；杠杆ETF及期权产品的快速扩张则进一步放大了这种双向弹性。\"在本周财报季（英伟达5月20日）结束、进入夏季交易之前，牢记这些战术动态是值得的，\"Callahan写道。高盛交易台整体对AI与半导体主题仍持中期建设性立场，但在战术层面建议投资者对技术面挑战保持审慎。英伟达财报：前瞻指引或比当季业绩更关键市场对英伟达的基本面前景依然乐观，但近期股价走势已在一定程度上透支了部分预期。据高盛英伟达财报前瞻报告，分析师普遍预计英伟达本季度收入将超出市场预测约20亿美元——该公司历史上的超预期幅度通常在2%至3%之间。市场更关注的是对下一季度的前瞻指引，当前分析师一致预期约为860亿美元，环比增幅约9%。其他聚焦方向包括：英伟达约1万亿美元的数据中心累计收入指引能否存在进一步上行空间，以及Agentic AI推理需求加速的叙事——尤其是其预计于2026年下半年开始发货的纯CPU机架产品。从近期价格走势来看，英伟达已连续7个交易日上涨，区间涨幅达20%，是近两年来最长连涨周期；自3月底低点以来累计新增市值约1.7万亿美元。然而，高盛数据同时显示，英伟达过去5次财报公布后的次个交易日（T+1），有4次出现下跌，自2022年5月以来，财报触发的大幅单日上涨实际上从未出现过。期权市场：极端看涨押注与尾部对冲同步就位期权仓位结构呈现出一组内在矛盾的信号。据SpotGamma数据，整体持仓方向依然极度偏向看涨，交易者持续将英伟达看涨期权向更高行权价滚动，看涨期权偏斜（call skew）维持在90日历史区间高端，而下行保护需求极为有限。据22V Research援引数据，上周五标普500看涨期权名义成交额创下2.6万亿美元的历史纪录，看涨期权占全部期权成交量的比例高达60%；费城半导体指数RSI亦升至2000年3月以来的高位。与此同时，针对下行风险的对冲布局也在悄然展开。SpotGamma指出，围绕标普500（SPY）、半导体ETF（SMH）及DRAM相关资产的大额看跌期权结构及买入行为明显增加，且集中于深度虚值行权价区间，显示其功能更接近尾部风险对冲，而非单纯的方向性押注。\"市场参与者并非看空英伟达，但对下行情景的准备并非微不足道，\"SpotGamma在报告中写道，\"任何方向性的转变几乎都将迅速波及更广泛的市场。\"SpotGamma补充指出，英伟达自3月低点已累计上涨逾35%，当前看涨期权仓位的规模意味着，一旦财报令市场失望或引发大规模获利了结，有可能触发显著的方向性逆转。市场广度隐患：涨势正被少数股票支撑在半导体与大型科技股的强势表现之下，美股整体参与度的匮乏正在形成结构性隐忧。Peter Callahan在报告中指出，尽管标普500年初至今上涨约8%，但仅约52%的成分股录得正收益。年内明显落后的领域涵盖住宅地产、医疗器械、无政府业务敞口的工程建筑、联邦IT服务、软件与服务、独立发电商、餐饮连锁、商业地产经纪及保险经纪等多个板块。Callahan坦言，审视这些板块的走势图时，令他质疑当前市场的表现究竟体现的是整体\"健康\"，还是不过是投资者被迫将资金集中于少数大市值AI股票的\"资金来源\"效应。Oppenheimer股票衍生品团队同样指出，过去一个月内标普500成分股中仅约五分之一跑赢指数，离散度指数升至逾一年来的最高水平，而隐含相关性则接近年初至今的低点。高盛机构经纪部门（PB）最新数据亦显示，科技板块近期已出现明显的\"风险撤出\"动作。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDL":0.6,"NVDA":2,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"07788":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"07388":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"ANV":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561608421303264,"gmtCreate":1778143131331,"gmtModify":1778143133697,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"第一批要死的空头出现了","listText":"第一批要死的空头出现了","text":"第一批要死的空头出现了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561608421303264","repostId":"1162488996","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162488996","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1778141855,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162488996?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-07 16:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权聚焦 | 英特尔IV百分位飙至100%历史极值！大单现213万美元熊市Put组合押注短线波动，远月864万美元买入深度实值Call彰显长期看多","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162488996","media":"期权女巫","summary":"英特尔收盘报113.01美元，涨4.49%。机构交易者构建了价值213万美元的熊市看跌期权组合，押注短期内股价波动或下行。同时，有交易者斥资864万美元买入远月深度实值看涨期权，彰显了对公司长期价值的坚定信心，并辅以超远月看跌期权进行对冲，反映出市场在剧烈波动预期下的多空分歧与谨慎心态。短线交易者押注波动或下跌，而长线资金则在进行看多布局的同时，买入保护性看跌期权以对冲风险。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英特尔收盘报113.01美元，涨4.49%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">近期英特尔期权市场出现显著的大单交易活动，呈现出短线博弈与长期布局并存的复杂格局。机构交易者构建了价值213万美元的熊市看跌期权组合，押注短期内股价波动或下行。同时，有交易者斥资864万美元买入远月深度实值看涨期权，彰显了对公司长期价值的坚定信心，并辅以超远月看跌期权进行对冲，反映出<strong>市场在剧烈波动预期下的多空分歧与谨慎心态。</strong></p><h3 id=\"id_3675535337\" style=\"text-align: left;\">期权指标分析</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1. <strong>隐含波动率与成交量分析</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前英特尔的隐含波动率（IV）高达85.86%，其IV百分位<strong>达到100.00%的极值</strong>，表明期权定价处于历史最高位，市场预期未来股价将出现剧烈波动。看跌/看涨成交量比率为0.87，结合大单数据，看涨期权总成交量（8946张）略高于看跌期权（6340张），显示多空交投活跃但方向性并不极端。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2. <strong>值得关注的未平仓合约</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在2026年5月15日到期的合约中，<strong>行权价120.0美元、100.0美元和95.0美元的看涨期权未平仓合约数分别高达30,770张、16,035张和14,826张。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/74e067d311dfee1c2868a6c5db3a4bfa\" tg-width=\"1755\" tg-height=\"717\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这些高持仓量区域可能成为未来股价上行的重要阻力或支撑位。</p><h3 id=\"id_397935552\" style=\"text-align: left;\">大单交易</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>整体方向与结构：</strong>市场呈现“短线博弈、远月多空对冲”的格局。短线交易者押注波动或下跌，而长线资金则在进行看多布局的同时，买入保护性看跌期权以对冲风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>关键大单解析：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1. 短线偏空押注：熊市看跌组合</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：同时买入2026年5月15日到期、行权价107.00美元和108.00美元的看跌期权各2,545张，净支出约<strong>213万美元</strong>。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：当前股价（113.01美元）高于行权价，此为买入虚值看跌期权，纯粹押注股价在短期内（至5月15日）下跌或波动率飙升。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT$  </a></strong></p><p><strong>‌‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/91f5c724b0345c1f68a76c531a326439\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"777\"/></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>2. 长期看多彰显信心：深度实值看涨期权</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：买入1,800张2026年7月17日到期、行权价65.00美元的看涨期权，成交额<strong>864万美元</strong>。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：当前股价远高于行权价，此为深度实值看涨期权，通常被视为利用杠杆进行长期股票替代或强烈看多的信号，而非短期投机。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/80735a908bfa46ed86ea4e4bf90da8df\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>3. 远月对冲与上行博弈</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：分别买入价值<strong>353.75万美元</strong>的2027年3月到期、行权价110美元看跌期权（虚值），以及<strong>213.6万美元</strong>的2026年9月到期、行权价130美元看涨期权（虚值）。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：进一步印证远月期权的多空对冲布局——前者用于长期保护或看跌，后者博取上行突破。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT$  </a></strong></p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ae16ec1feea19e67ba3795a72018872\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"738\"/></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>4. 近月方向博弈</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：近月（2026年5月8日到期）买入3,646张行权价112美元的看涨期权，成交额<strong>117万美元</strong>。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：当前股价接近行权价，属于对短期方向或事件性波动的直接押注，与前述看跌组合共同加剧短线不确定性。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/56e740382d8474786bfb25a5e529bde9\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"371\"/></p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_970378957\">总体策略参考</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">鉴于隐含波动率处于历史极值，期权价格昂贵，单纯卖出深度虚值（如行权价140美元以上的Call或90美元以下的Put）期权被行权的概率虽低，但需警惕波动率回落带来的合约价值衰减风险，且需承担高额保证金。对于风险承受能力有限的投资者，可以考虑构建价差策略（如熊市看涨价差或牛市看跌价差）来限制最大亏损，同时从高波动率环境中获利。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权聚焦 | 英特尔IV百分位飙至100%历史极值！大单现213万美元熊市Put组合押注短线波动，远月864万美元买入深度实值Call彰显长期看多</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权聚焦 | 英特尔IV百分位飙至100%历史极值！大单现213万美元熊市Put组合押注短线波动，远月864万美元买入深度实值Call彰显长期看多\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-07 16:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英特尔收盘报113.01美元，涨4.49%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">近期英特尔期权市场出现显著的大单交易活动，呈现出短线博弈与长期布局并存的复杂格局。机构交易者构建了价值213万美元的熊市看跌期权组合，押注短期内股价波动或下行。同时，有交易者斥资864万美元买入远月深度实值看涨期权，彰显了对公司长期价值的坚定信心，并辅以超远月看跌期权进行对冲，反映出<strong>市场在剧烈波动预期下的多空分歧与谨慎心态。</strong></p><h3 id=\"id_3675535337\" style=\"text-align: left;\">期权指标分析</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1. <strong>隐含波动率与成交量分析</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前英特尔的隐含波动率（IV）高达85.86%，其IV百分位<strong>达到100.00%的极值</strong>，表明期权定价处于历史最高位，市场预期未来股价将出现剧烈波动。看跌/看涨成交量比率为0.87，结合大单数据，看涨期权总成交量（8946张）略高于看跌期权（6340张），显示多空交投活跃但方向性并不极端。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2. <strong>值得关注的未平仓合约</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在2026年5月15日到期的合约中，<strong>行权价120.0美元、100.0美元和95.0美元的看涨期权未平仓合约数分别高达30,770张、16,035张和14,826张。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/74e067d311dfee1c2868a6c5db3a4bfa\" tg-width=\"1755\" tg-height=\"717\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这些高持仓量区域可能成为未来股价上行的重要阻力或支撑位。</p><h3 id=\"id_397935552\" style=\"text-align: left;\">大单交易</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>整体方向与结构：</strong>市场呈现“短线博弈、远月多空对冲”的格局。短线交易者押注波动或下跌，而长线资金则在进行看多布局的同时，买入保护性看跌期权以对冲风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>关键大单解析：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1. 短线偏空押注：熊市看跌组合</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：同时买入2026年5月15日到期、行权价107.00美元和108.00美元的看跌期权各2,545张，净支出约<strong>213万美元</strong>。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：当前股价（113.01美元）高于行权价，此为买入虚值看跌期权，纯粹押注股价在短期内（至5月15日）下跌或波动率飙升。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT$  </a></strong></p><p><strong>‌‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/91f5c724b0345c1f68a76c531a326439\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"777\"/></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>2. 长期看多彰显信心：深度实值看涨期权</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：买入1,800张2026年7月17日到期、行权价65.00美元的看涨期权，成交额<strong>864万美元</strong>。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：当前股价远高于行权价，此为深度实值看涨期权，通常被视为利用杠杆进行长期股票替代或强烈看多的信号，而非短期投机。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/80735a908bfa46ed86ea4e4bf90da8df\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>3. 远月对冲与上行博弈</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：分别买入价值<strong>353.75万美元</strong>的2027年3月到期、行权价110美元看跌期权（虚值），以及<strong>213.6万美元</strong>的2026年9月到期、行权价130美元看涨期权（虚值）。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：进一步印证远月期权的多空对冲布局——前者用于长期保护或看跌，后者博取上行突破。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT$  </a></strong></p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ae16ec1feea19e67ba3795a72018872\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"738\"/></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>4. 近月方向博弈</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：近月（2026年5月8日到期）买入3,646张行权价112美元的看涨期权，成交额<strong>117万美元</strong>。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：当前股价接近行权价，属于对短期方向或事件性波动的直接押注，与前述看跌组合共同加剧短线不确定性。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/56e740382d8474786bfb25a5e529bde9\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"371\"/></p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_970378957\">总体策略参考</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">鉴于隐含波动率处于历史极值，期权价格昂贵，单纯卖出深度虚值（如行权价140美元以上的Call或90美元以下的Put）期权被行权的概率虽低，但需警惕波动率回落带来的合约价值衰减风险，且需承担高额保证金。对于风险承受能力有限的投资者，可以考虑构建价差策略（如熊市看涨价差或牛市看跌价差）来限制最大亏损，同时从高波动率环境中获利。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f75603b44290c7d476d289df7f8b04ca","relate_stocks":{"ARMW":"Roundhill ARM WeeklyPay ETF","INTW":"2倍做多INTC ETF-GraniteShares","LINT":"Direxion Daily INTC Bull 2X ETF","INTC":"英特尔","ARMG":"2倍做多ARM ETF- Leverage Shares","ARMU":"2倍做多ARM ETF-T-REX"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162488996","content_text":"英特尔收盘报113.01美元，涨4.49%。近期英特尔期权市场出现显著的大单交易活动，呈现出短线博弈与长期布局并存的复杂格局。机构交易者构建了价值213万美元的熊市看跌期权组合，押注短期内股价波动或下行。同时，有交易者斥资864万美元买入远月深度实值看涨期权，彰显了对公司长期价值的坚定信心，并辅以超远月看跌期权进行对冲，反映出市场在剧烈波动预期下的多空分歧与谨慎心态。期权指标分析1. 隐含波动率与成交量分析当前英特尔的隐含波动率（IV）高达85.86%，其IV百分位达到100.00%的极值，表明期权定价处于历史最高位，市场预期未来股价将出现剧烈波动。看跌/看涨成交量比率为0.87，结合大单数据，看涨期权总成交量（8946张）略高于看跌期权（6340张），显示多空交投活跃但方向性并不极端。2. 值得关注的未平仓合约在2026年5月15日到期的合约中，行权价120.0美元、100.0美元和95.0美元的看涨期权未平仓合约数分别高达30,770张、16,035张和14,826张。这些高持仓量区域可能成为未来股价上行的重要阻力或支撑位。大单交易整体方向与结构：市场呈现“短线博弈、远月多空对冲”的格局。短线交易者押注波动或下跌，而长线资金则在进行看多布局的同时，买入保护性看跌期权以对冲风险。关键大单解析：1. 短线偏空押注：熊市看跌组合交易构成：同时买入2026年5月15日到期、行权价107.00美元和108.00美元的看跌期权各2,545张，净支出约213万美元。策略解读：当前股价（113.01美元）高于行权价，此为买入虚值看跌期权，纯粹押注股价在短期内（至5月15日）下跌或波动率飙升。‌$INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT$  ‌‌$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$  2. 长期看多彰显信心：深度实值看涨期权交易构成：买入1,800张2026年7月17日到期、行权价65.00美元的看涨期权，成交额864万美元。策略解读：当前股价远高于行权价，此为深度实值看涨期权，通常被视为利用杠杆进行长期股票替代或强烈看多的信号，而非短期投机。‌$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$  3. 远月对冲与上行博弈交易构成：分别买入价值353.75万美元的2027年3月到期、行权价110美元看跌期权（虚值），以及213.6万美元的2026年9月到期、行权价130美元看涨期权（虚值）。策略解读：进一步印证远月期权的多空对冲布局——前者用于长期保护或看跌，后者博取上行突破。‌$INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT$  ‌$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$  4. 近月方向博弈交易构成：近月（2026年5月8日到期）买入3,646张行权价112美元的看涨期权，成交额117万美元。策略解读：当前股价接近行权价，属于对短期方向或事件性波动的直接押注，与前述看跌组合共同加剧短线不确定性。‌$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$  总体策略参考鉴于隐含波动率处于历史极值，期权价格昂贵，单纯卖出深度虚值（如行权价140美元以上的Call或90美元以下的Put）期权被行权的概率虽低，但需警惕波动率回落带来的合约价值衰减风险，且需承担高额保证金。对于风险承受能力有限的投资者，可以考虑构建价差策略（如熊市看涨价差或牛市看跌价差）来限制最大亏损，同时从高波动率环境中获利。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARMW":0.6,"INTC":2,"INTW":0.6,"ARMU":0.6,"ARMG":0.6,"LINT":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561541531336792,"gmtCreate":1778126888685,"gmtModify":1778126890957,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"多吃点🍇，蛮酸的","listText":"多吃点🍇，蛮酸的","text":"多吃点🍇，蛮酸的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561541531336792","repostId":"2633916161","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2633916161","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1778126126,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2633916161?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-07 11:55","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"重温泡沫巅峰的感觉？当前的美股涨的比1999年还快！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2633916161","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"数据显示，过去一年纳斯达克100指数表现最好的前10只股票平均涨幅高达784%，这一数据不仅击败了1999年的平均水平，也超过了2000年3月市场见顶前一年的表现。尽管当前基本面更稳健，但分析师警告，股市往往在好消息中见顶，情绪亢奋的半导体板块或面临25%至30%的回调风险。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>数据显示，过去一年纳斯达克100指数表现最好的前10只股票平均涨幅高达784%，这一数据不仅击败了1999年的平均水平，也超过了2000年3月市场见顶前一年的表现。尽管当前基本面更稳健，但分析师警告，股市往往在好消息中见顶，情绪亢奋的半导体板块或面临25%至30%的回调风险。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在人工智能热潮与宏观环境改善的双重催化下，美国股市正经历一场极端的上涨行情，其头部科技股的涨幅甚至已经超越了1999年互联网泡沫破裂前的巅峰水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">5月7日，彭博宏观策略师Cameron Crise撰文称，随着中东冲突出现缓和迹象，国际油价大幅下跌，并带动债券收益率走低。与此同时，市场对美联储年内紧缩政策的预期已基本消退，加之以AMD为代表的芯片股交出优异答卷，<strong>当前的股市环境堪称“完美”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，文章指出，<strong>这种“好得难以置信”的市场表现正引发投资者的警觉。</strong>据BTIG首席技术分析师Jonathan Krinsky的最新报告，过去一年纳斯达克100指数（NDX）表现最好的前10只股票平均涨幅高达784%，这一数据不仅击败了1999年的平均水平，也超过了2000年3月市场见顶前一年的表现。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着，<strong>当前这轮科技股行情在涨幅烈度上已正式超越历史上最著名的泡沫时代。</strong>尽管当前的宏观基本面远优于互联网泡沫时期，但分析师警告称<strong>，</strong>市场情绪的亢奋程度引发警惕：股票往往在好消息中见顶，分析人士警告，半导体板块或已具备形成阶段性高点的全部条件，市场正面临25%至30%的回调风险。</p><h2 id=\"id_1219389364\" style=\"text-align: left;\">头部科技股涨幅超越互联网泡沫时期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">半导体板块的极端上涨是本轮行情的绝对核心。BTIG 的 Jonathan Krinsky 在报告中通过历史数据对比指出，当前市场的集中爆发程度在某些方面甚至比互联网泡沫时期更为极端。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据显示，在1999年，纳斯达克100指数表现最好的前10只股票平均涨幅为559%，而在2000年3月24日见顶前的一年里，前10大牛股的平均涨幅为622%。相比之下，过去一年纳斯达克100指数前10大成分股的平均涨幅达到了惊人的784%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从个股表现来看，这种超越历史的趋势更为明显。在1999年，纳斯达克100指数表现最好的股票是高通，涨幅为2600%；在互联网泡沫见顶前的一年里，表现最好的股票是Strategy，涨幅为1260%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而反观当前，过去一年表现最好的纳斯达克100成分股闪迪涨幅高达3960%。这一成绩比高通在整个互联网泡沫期间创下的最佳52周滚动回报率还要高出1300个基点。有趣的是，在1999年，闪迪正是表现第二好的股票，当时的涨幅为581%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff0ada8f7a385f55ef45fb9d69d1e766\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"257\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，<strong>作为本轮上涨的引擎，费城半导体指数（SOX）的表现同样逼近历史极值。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在互联网泡沫时期，该指数的最佳52周滚动回报率为264%。虽然当前该指数145%的滚动回报率尚未打破历史纪录，但这已经是过去26年来最接近该极值的水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9e7ad13f2d90e668483cd06399eed05\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"394\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在半导体板块内部，细分领域的涨幅同样惊人。其中，数据中心相关股票上涨了230%，而存储芯片类股票的涨幅更是超过了450%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c25958a7f4a64cccf81fb025b90291e\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"808\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_51151953\" style=\"text-align: left;\">好消息堆叠，或是见顶信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前的美股市场似乎正处于所有可能世界中最完美的状态。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">文章指出，<strong>从宏观层面来看，地缘政治风险的降温对资产定价产生了直接的积极影响。</strong>中东局势的缓和促使油价下挫，进而压低了债券收益率，为股市估值提供了支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在流动性预期方面<strong>，市场对美联储进一步收紧货币政策的担忧已迅速消散。</strong>而在企业盈利端，人工智能带来的业绩红利正在兑现，<strong>AMD等芯片巨头的强劲表现进一步点燃了市场的做多情绪。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Cameron Crise称，这种宏观与微观层面的完美共振，<strong>让持怀疑态度的投资者感到背脊发凉。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与2000年至2002年互联网泡沫破裂时缺乏基本面支撑、导致半导体指数最终暴跌84%的情况不同，当前市场的基本面显然更为稳健。分析师认为，市场不太可能重演当年那种毁灭性的下跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，这并不意味着市场可以免疫于周期性的调整。<strong>BTIG预计，半导体板块可能会出现25%至30%的修正，这一幅度的回调将使费城半导体指数回落至其50日移动平均线附近</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc4ac210d85de8670883e9cc6896166e\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"806\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析指出，历史经验表明，股市往往在好消息中见顶。当前，强劲的盈利数据与中东局势缓和的利好消息交织，可能正在为半导体板块构筑一个波段高点。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>重温泡沫巅峰的感觉？当前的美股涨的比1999年还快！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n重温泡沫巅峰的感觉？当前的美股涨的比1999年还快！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-07 11:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>数据显示，过去一年纳斯达克100指数表现最好的前10只股票平均涨幅高达784%，这一数据不仅击败了1999年的平均水平，也超过了2000年3月市场见顶前一年的表现。尽管当前基本面更稳健，但分析师警告，股市往往在好消息中见顶，情绪亢奋的半导体板块或面临25%至30%的回调风险。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在人工智能热潮与宏观环境改善的双重催化下，美国股市正经历一场极端的上涨行情，其头部科技股的涨幅甚至已经超越了1999年互联网泡沫破裂前的巅峰水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">5月7日，彭博宏观策略师Cameron Crise撰文称，随着中东冲突出现缓和迹象，国际油价大幅下跌，并带动债券收益率走低。与此同时，市场对美联储年内紧缩政策的预期已基本消退，加之以AMD为代表的芯片股交出优异答卷，<strong>当前的股市环境堪称“完美”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，文章指出，<strong>这种“好得难以置信”的市场表现正引发投资者的警觉。</strong>据BTIG首席技术分析师Jonathan Krinsky的最新报告，过去一年纳斯达克100指数（NDX）表现最好的前10只股票平均涨幅高达784%，这一数据不仅击败了1999年的平均水平，也超过了2000年3月市场见顶前一年的表现。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着，<strong>当前这轮科技股行情在涨幅烈度上已正式超越历史上最著名的泡沫时代。</strong>尽管当前的宏观基本面远优于互联网泡沫时期，但分析师警告称<strong>，</strong>市场情绪的亢奋程度引发警惕：股票往往在好消息中见顶，分析人士警告，半导体板块或已具备形成阶段性高点的全部条件，市场正面临25%至30%的回调风险。</p><h2 id=\"id_1219389364\" style=\"text-align: left;\">头部科技股涨幅超越互联网泡沫时期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">半导体板块的极端上涨是本轮行情的绝对核心。BTIG 的 Jonathan Krinsky 在报告中通过历史数据对比指出，当前市场的集中爆发程度在某些方面甚至比互联网泡沫时期更为极端。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据显示，在1999年，纳斯达克100指数表现最好的前10只股票平均涨幅为559%，而在2000年3月24日见顶前的一年里，前10大牛股的平均涨幅为622%。相比之下，过去一年纳斯达克100指数前10大成分股的平均涨幅达到了惊人的784%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从个股表现来看，这种超越历史的趋势更为明显。在1999年，纳斯达克100指数表现最好的股票是高通，涨幅为2600%；在互联网泡沫见顶前的一年里，表现最好的股票是Strategy，涨幅为1260%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而反观当前，过去一年表现最好的纳斯达克100成分股闪迪涨幅高达3960%。这一成绩比高通在整个互联网泡沫期间创下的最佳52周滚动回报率还要高出1300个基点。有趣的是，在1999年，闪迪正是表现第二好的股票，当时的涨幅为581%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff0ada8f7a385f55ef45fb9d69d1e766\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"257\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，<strong>作为本轮上涨的引擎，费城半导体指数（SOX）的表现同样逼近历史极值。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在互联网泡沫时期，该指数的最佳52周滚动回报率为264%。虽然当前该指数145%的滚动回报率尚未打破历史纪录，但这已经是过去26年来最接近该极值的水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9e7ad13f2d90e668483cd06399eed05\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"394\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在半导体板块内部，细分领域的涨幅同样惊人。其中，数据中心相关股票上涨了230%，而存储芯片类股票的涨幅更是超过了450%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c25958a7f4a64cccf81fb025b90291e\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"808\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_51151953\" style=\"text-align: left;\">好消息堆叠，或是见顶信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前的美股市场似乎正处于所有可能世界中最完美的状态。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">文章指出，<strong>从宏观层面来看，地缘政治风险的降温对资产定价产生了直接的积极影响。</strong>中东局势的缓和促使油价下挫，进而压低了债券收益率，为股市估值提供了支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在流动性预期方面<strong>，市场对美联储进一步收紧货币政策的担忧已迅速消散。</strong>而在企业盈利端，人工智能带来的业绩红利正在兑现，<strong>AMD等芯片巨头的强劲表现进一步点燃了市场的做多情绪。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Cameron Crise称，这种宏观与微观层面的完美共振，<strong>让持怀疑态度的投资者感到背脊发凉。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与2000年至2002年互联网泡沫破裂时缺乏基本面支撑、导致半导体指数最终暴跌84%的情况不同，当前市场的基本面显然更为稳健。分析师认为，市场不太可能重演当年那种毁灭性的下跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，这并不意味着市场可以免疫于周期性的调整。<strong>BTIG预计，半导体板块可能会出现25%至30%的修正，这一幅度的回调将使费城半导体指数回落至其50日移动平均线附近</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc4ac210d85de8670883e9cc6896166e\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"806\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析指出，历史经验表明，股市往往在好消息中见顶。当前，强劲的盈利数据与中东局势缓和的利好消息交织，可能正在为半导体板块构筑一个波段高点。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"SOXY":"YieldMax Target 12 Semiconductor Option Income ETF","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQM":"NASDAQ100指数ETF-Invesco","SSG":"Proshares Ultrashort Semiconductors","SMHX":"VanEck Fabless Semiconductor 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Krinsky的最新报告，过去一年纳斯达克100指数（NDX）表现最好的前10只股票平均涨幅高达784%，这一数据不仅击败了1999年的平均水平，也超过了2000年3月市场见顶前一年的表现。这意味着，当前这轮科技股行情在涨幅烈度上已正式超越历史上最著名的泡沫时代。尽管当前的宏观基本面远优于互联网泡沫时期，但分析师警告称，市场情绪的亢奋程度引发警惕：股票往往在好消息中见顶，分析人士警告，半导体板块或已具备形成阶段性高点的全部条件，市场正面临25%至30%的回调风险。头部科技股涨幅超越互联网泡沫时期半导体板块的极端上涨是本轮行情的绝对核心。BTIG 的 Jonathan Krinsky 在报告中通过历史数据对比指出，当前市场的集中爆发程度在某些方面甚至比互联网泡沫时期更为极端。数据显示，在1999年，纳斯达克100指数表现最好的前10只股票平均涨幅为559%，而在2000年3月24日见顶前的一年里，前10大牛股的平均涨幅为622%。相比之下，过去一年纳斯达克100指数前10大成分股的平均涨幅达到了惊人的784%。从个股表现来看，这种超越历史的趋势更为明显。在1999年，纳斯达克100指数表现最好的股票是高通，涨幅为2600%；在互联网泡沫见顶前的一年里，表现最好的股票是Strategy，涨幅为1260%。而反观当前，过去一年表现最好的纳斯达克100成分股闪迪涨幅高达3960%。这一成绩比高通在整个互联网泡沫期间创下的最佳52周滚动回报率还要高出1300个基点。有趣的是，在1999年，闪迪正是表现第二好的股票，当时的涨幅为581%。值得注意的是，作为本轮上涨的引擎，费城半导体指数（SOX）的表现同样逼近历史极值。在互联网泡沫时期，该指数的最佳52周滚动回报率为264%。虽然当前该指数145%的滚动回报率尚未打破历史纪录，但这已经是过去26年来最接近该极值的水平。在半导体板块内部，细分领域的涨幅同样惊人。其中，数据中心相关股票上涨了230%，而存储芯片类股票的涨幅更是超过了450%。好消息堆叠，或是见顶信号当前的美股市场似乎正处于所有可能世界中最完美的状态。文章指出，从宏观层面来看，地缘政治风险的降温对资产定价产生了直接的积极影响。中东局势的缓和促使油价下挫，进而压低了债券收益率，为股市估值提供了支撑。在流动性预期方面，市场对美联储进一步收紧货币政策的担忧已迅速消散。而在企业盈利端，人工智能带来的业绩红利正在兑现，AMD等芯片巨头的强劲表现进一步点燃了市场的做多情绪。Cameron Crise称，这种宏观与微观层面的完美共振，让持怀疑态度的投资者感到背脊发凉。与2000年至2002年互联网泡沫破裂时缺乏基本面支撑、导致半导体指数最终暴跌84%的情况不同，当前市场的基本面显然更为稳健。分析师认为，市场不太可能重演当年那种毁灭性的下跌。然而，这并不意味着市场可以免疫于周期性的调整。BTIG预计，半导体板块可能会出现25%至30%的修正，这一幅度的回调将使费城半导体指数回落至其50日移动平均线附近。分析指出，历史经验表明，股市往往在好消息中见顶。当前，强劲的盈利数据与中东局势缓和的利好消息交织，可能正在为半导体板块构筑一个波段高点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QQQM":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,".DJI":2,"SMH":0.83,"SMHX":0.73,"CHPY":0.73,"SOXY":0.73,"SPDN":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"QQQX":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"QMAR":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,".IXIC":2,".SPX":2,"SH":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"NDX":2,"PSI":0.73,"SPXU":0.6,"USD":0.73,"SPYQ":0.6,"SOXX":0.73,"SOXL":0.73,"TQQY":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"QDEC":0.6,"SOXS":0.73,"SPXL":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SOXQ":0.73,"SMAX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"TEKX":0.73,"NJAN":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"NOCT":0.6,"FTXL":0.83,"SPYU":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"VGT":0.89,"IVV":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"NAPR":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"XSD":0.73,"SPY":0.6,"SSG":0.73,"CHPS":0.73,"QID":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"QLD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561498855494672,"gmtCreate":1778116382755,"gmtModify":1778116385240,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"你们有完没完？差不多得了","listText":"你们有完没完？差不多得了","text":"你们有完没完？差不多得了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561498855494672","repostId":"1124503554","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1124503554","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1778116171,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124503554?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-07 09:09","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"美媒称伊朗将在周四回应美方提议，伊朗议长斥责其为“虚假媒体叙事”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124503554","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"双方正在朝着达成一项结束战争的协议而努力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>据CNN：<strong>一位消息人士表示，伊朗预计将于周四向调解人提交关于美国提出的结束战争提议的答复。伊朗一直在对美国提出的提议进行审查，消息人士称，双方正在朝着达成一项结束战争的协议而努力。</strong></p><p>据伊朗Press TV报道，<strong>伊朗议会议长驳斥了近期有关德黑兰与华盛顿之间即将达成某种协议的报道，称这些报道具有误导性，是源自美国的、屡见不鲜的虚假媒体叙事的一部分。</strong>周四，伊朗议会议长卡利巴夫在社交媒体上发文，提及了美国媒体Axios关于此类安排的报道，并讽刺地将其称为“Operation Fauxios”（假装行动）。他指出，此类报道的流传反映了美国媒体报道中的一种惯常模式，尤其是那些援引匿名消息来源的报道——伊朗官员曾多次驳斥这些报道毫无根据，而事后事实也总是证明这些报道是错误的。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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09:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>据CNN：<strong>一位消息人士表示，伊朗预计将于周四向调解人提交关于美国提出的结束战争提议的答复。伊朗一直在对美国提出的提议进行审查，消息人士称，双方正在朝着达成一项结束战争的协议而努力。</strong></p><p>据伊朗Press TV报道，<strong>伊朗议会议长驳斥了近期有关德黑兰与华盛顿之间即将达成某种协议的报道，称这些报道具有误导性，是源自美国的、屡见不鲜的虚假媒体叙事的一部分。</strong>周四，伊朗议会议长卡利巴夫在社交媒体上发文，提及了美国媒体Axios关于此类安排的报道，并讽刺地将其称为“Operation Fauxios”（假装行动）。他指出，此类报道的流传反映了美国媒体报道中的一种惯常模式，尤其是那些援引匿名消息来源的报道——伊朗官员曾多次驳斥这些报道毫无根据，而事后事实也总是证明这些报道是错误的。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f667d36a087f6144733e56bd1e3f0377","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124503554","content_text":"据CNN：一位消息人士表示，伊朗预计将于周四向调解人提交关于美国提出的结束战争提议的答复。伊朗一直在对美国提出的提议进行审查，消息人士称，双方正在朝着达成一项结束战争的协议而努力。据伊朗Press TV报道，伊朗议会议长驳斥了近期有关德黑兰与华盛顿之间即将达成某种协议的报道，称这些报道具有误导性，是源自美国的、屡见不鲜的虚假媒体叙事的一部分。周四，伊朗议会议长卡利巴夫在社交媒体上发文，提及了美国媒体Axios关于此类安排的报道，并讽刺地将其称为“Operation Fauxios”（假装行动）。他指出，此类报道的流传反映了美国媒体报道中的一种惯常模式，尤其是那些援引匿名消息来源的报道——伊朗官员曾多次驳斥这些报道毫无根据，而事后事实也总是证明这些报道是错误的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":559222754338312,"gmtCreate":1777560704712,"gmtModify":1777562329444,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"又跌下来了，你能不能稳一点再放P","listText":"又跌下来了，你能不能稳一点再放P","text":"又跌下来了，你能不能稳一点再放P","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/559222754338312","repostId":"1130021851","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130021851","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1777475972,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130021851?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-29 23:19","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"异动解读 | 应用光电(AAOI)盘中大涨6.55%，光通信板块情绪修复推动技术性反弹","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130021851","media":"异动解读","summary":"应用光电(AAOI)今日盘中大涨6.55%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，此次上涨主要源于光通信板块的整体情绪修复与技术性反弹。此前，因POET Technologies遭Marvell取消全部采购订单，引发了市场对供应链稳定性的担忧，导致整个板块在前期遭遇了恐慌性抛售并连续下挫。应用光电(AAOI)自身基本面并未受到该事件的直接冲击，作为美国本土稀缺的垂直整合光模块厂商，其800G产品批量交付、1.6T技术同步推进的核心增长逻辑依然稳固。随着市场情绪的逐步修复，股价随之回升。同日内，光通信板块其他个股亦普遍上涨，呈现出集体反弹的态势。","content":"<p>应用光电(AAOI)今日盘中大涨6.55%，引起了市场的广泛关注。</p><p>消息面上，此次上涨主要源于光通信板块的整体情绪修复与技术性反弹。此前，因POET Technologies遭Marvell取消全部采购订单，引发了市场对供应链稳定性的担忧，导致整个板块在前期遭遇了恐慌性抛售并连续下挫。应用光电(AAOI)自身基本面并未受到该事件的直接冲击，作为美国本土稀缺的垂直整合光模块厂商，其800G产品批量交付、1.6T技术同步推进的核心增长逻辑依然稳固。随着市场情绪的逐步修复，股价随之回升。</p><p>同日内，光通信板块其他个股亦普遍上涨，呈现出集体反弹的态势。</p>","source":"ai_movement_cn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>异动解读 | 应用光电(AAOI)盘中大涨6.55%，光通信板块情绪修复推动技术性反弹</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n异动解读 | 应用光电(AAOI)盘中大涨6.55%，光通信板块情绪修复推动技术性反弹\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092702339\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-29 23:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>应用光电(AAOI)今日盘中大涨6.55%，引起了市场的广泛关注。</p><p>消息面上，此次上涨主要源于光通信板块的整体情绪修复与技术性反弹。此前，因POET Technologies遭Marvell取消全部采购订单，引发了市场对供应链稳定性的担忧，导致整个板块在前期遭遇了恐慌性抛售并连续下挫。应用光电(AAOI)自身基本面并未受到该事件的直接冲击，作为美国本土稀缺的垂直整合光模块厂商，其800G产品批量交付、1.6T技术同步推进的核心增长逻辑依然稳固。随着市场情绪的逐步修复，股价随之回升。</p><p>同日内，光通信板块其他个股亦普遍上涨，呈现出集体反弹的态势。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAOI":"Applied Optoelectronics Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130021851","content_text":"应用光电(AAOI)今日盘中大涨6.55%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，此次上涨主要源于光通信板块的整体情绪修复与技术性反弹。此前，因POET Technologies遭Marvell取消全部采购订单，引发了市场对供应链稳定性的担忧，导致整个板块在前期遭遇了恐慌性抛售并连续下挫。应用光电(AAOI)自身基本面并未受到该事件的直接冲击，作为美国本土稀缺的垂直整合光模块厂商，其800G产品批量交付、1.6T技术同步推进的核心增长逻辑依然稳固。随着市场情绪的逐步修复，股价随之回升。同日内，光通信板块其他个股亦普遍上涨，呈现出集体反弹的态势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAOI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":556923266128064,"gmtCreate":1776996174687,"gmtModify":1776996177005,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"上线后跌幅20%了，哈哈哈哈","listText":"上线后跌幅20%了，哈哈哈哈","text":"上线后跌幅20%了，哈哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/556923266128064","repostId":"2629957660","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2629957660","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1776829577,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2629957660?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-22 11:46","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"广发证券：游戏用户付费意愿增强 《异环》上线表现值得期待","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2629957660","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，双端产品及PC市场的增长，本质上是用户对品质更高、体验更好的游戏的付费意愿增强，头部优质产品的市场空间持续扩大。该行认为，作为二次元游戏核心产品的《异环》，其出海空间同样值得期待。风险提示游戏行业监管加强风险，行业竞争加剧风险，产品上线不及预期的风险。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">广发证券</a>发布研报称，双端产品及PC市场的增长，本质上是用户对品质更高、体验更好的游戏的付费意愿增强，头部优质产品的市场空间持续扩大。二次元游戏出海空间广阔，二次元文化作为新兴的潮流文化，在海外的潜在用户规模持续扩张。《异环》测试表现突出，玩家获得更加沉浸的游戏体验，产品上线有望实现突出流水表现，首推其研发商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002624\">完美世界</a>(002624.SZ)，关注头部公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>(00700)、储备有《无限大》的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易-S</a>(09999)等。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01776\">广发证券</a>主要观点如下：</p><p><strong>游戏市场需求持续增长，用户对精品游戏的付费意愿持续提升</strong></p><p>根据伽马数据，2026Q1国内游戏市场实际销售收入971.72亿元，环比增长2.54%，同比增长13.38%。其中，客户端游戏市场实际销售收入为249.76亿元，环比增长11.17%，同比增长39.38%，增速领先于整体市场。报告显示，市场规模的环比提升，主要得益于多款双端互通新品在季度内上线并贡献了收入，例如《明日方舟：终末地》《逆战：未来》《洛克王国：世界》等。该行认为，PC端设备性能及产品沉浸感通常高于移动端，双端产品及PC市场的增长，本质上是用户对品质更高、体验更好的游戏的付费意愿增强，头部优质产品的市场空间持续扩大。</p><p><strong>二次元赛道具备全球属性，出海表现可期</strong></p><p>二次元游戏出海空间广阔，二次元文化作为新兴的潮流文化，在海外的潜在用户规模持续扩张，海外调研机构Cognitive Market Research预计ACGN亚文化(即二次元文化)产业市场规模年均复合增速为11.3%，可以认为，二次元是海外市场重要的文化潮流，具备广泛的潜在受众。该行认为，作为二次元游戏核心产品的《异环》，其出海空间同样值得期待。</p><p><strong>《异环》开启都市开放世界新赛道，有望提供有别于传统二次元大世界的体验</strong></p><p>《异环》拥有头部二次元游戏的关注度，全渠道预约量超过3500万，TapTap关注突破600万，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">B站</a>公测PV播放超过800万，公测前瞻节目播放超200万，该行认为其关注度属于二次元游戏第一梯队。开启预下载后，TapTap端下载量已经超过120万，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">B站</a>渠道下载超过90万(截至4月21日20:00)。从下载数据来看，该行预计产品的首日新进用户规模表现突出。在玩法层面，根据《异环》官方预热PV，除战斗外的玩法包括载具系统、住宅与角色互动、都市大亨等，其体验结合了玩家平时的生活场景。在角色维度，用户与部分角色提升到对应机遇等级后，可发出出游邀请，一起游览花田、欣赏流星等，具备更多的陪伴类交互，提升沉浸感。总体而言，《异环》与传统二次元开放世界有明显差异玩法，有望通过创新带给玩家不同的体验。该行认为，通过“都市”题材与其他二次元的玩法的差异化，产品有望从已经较为同质化的二次元开放世界中找到新的玩法，提升用户留存意愿，推动产品流水规模的提升。</p><p><strong>风险提示</strong></p><p>游戏行业监管加强风险，行业竞争加剧风险，产品上线不及预期的风险。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>广发证券：游戏用户付费意愿增强 《异环》上线表现值得期待</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n广发证券：游戏用户付费意愿增强 《异环》上线表现值得期待\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-22 11:46 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1431759.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，双端产品及PC市场的增长，本质上是用户对品质更高、体验更好的游戏的付费意愿增强，头部优质产品的市场空间持续扩大。二次元游戏出海空间广阔，二次元文化作为新兴的潮流文化，在海外的潜在用户规模持续扩张。《异环》测试表现突出，玩家获得更加沉浸的游戏体验，产品上线有望实现突出流水表现，首推其研发商完美世界(002624.SZ)，关注头部公司腾讯控股(00700)、储备...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1431759.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE0003851619.USD":"BNY MELLON ASIAN EQUITY \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","LU2251237306.USD":"TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS DYNAMIC INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC A","LU0228367735.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Fund AS SGD","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","LU0164872284.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0531970944.HKD":"HSBC GIF BRIC EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","SGXZ31699556.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"C\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2251237488.HKD":"TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS DYNAMIC INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC A","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU0188438112.USD":"SCHRODER ISF ASIAN EQUITY YIELD \"A\" ACC","LU0164880469.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AC\" 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1431759.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2629957660","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，双端产品及PC市场的增长，本质上是用户对品质更高、体验更好的游戏的付费意愿增强，头部优质产品的市场空间持续扩大。二次元游戏出海空间广阔，二次元文化作为新兴的潮流文化，在海外的潜在用户规模持续扩张。《异环》测试表现突出，玩家获得更加沉浸的游戏体验，产品上线有望实现突出流水表现，首推其研发商完美世界(002624.SZ)，关注头部公司腾讯控股(00700)、储备有《无限大》的网易-S(09999)等。广发证券主要观点如下：游戏市场需求持续增长，用户对精品游戏的付费意愿持续提升根据伽马数据，2026Q1国内游戏市场实际销售收入971.72亿元，环比增长2.54%，同比增长13.38%。其中，客户端游戏市场实际销售收入为249.76亿元，环比增长11.17%，同比增长39.38%，增速领先于整体市场。报告显示，市场规模的环比提升，主要得益于多款双端互通新品在季度内上线并贡献了收入，例如《明日方舟：终末地》《逆战：未来》《洛克王国：世界》等。该行认为，PC端设备性能及产品沉浸感通常高于移动端，双端产品及PC市场的增长，本质上是用户对品质更高、体验更好的游戏的付费意愿增强，头部优质产品的市场空间持续扩大。二次元赛道具备全球属性，出海表现可期二次元游戏出海空间广阔，二次元文化作为新兴的潮流文化，在海外的潜在用户规模持续扩张，海外调研机构Cognitive Market Research预计ACGN亚文化(即二次元文化)产业市场规模年均复合增速为11.3%，可以认为，二次元是海外市场重要的文化潮流，具备广泛的潜在受众。该行认为，作为二次元游戏核心产品的《异环》，其出海空间同样值得期待。《异环》开启都市开放世界新赛道，有望提供有别于传统二次元大世界的体验《异环》拥有头部二次元游戏的关注度，全渠道预约量超过3500万，TapTap关注突破600万，B站公测PV播放超过800万，公测前瞻节目播放超200万，该行认为其关注度属于二次元游戏第一梯队。开启预下载后，TapTap端下载量已经超过120万，B站渠道下载超过90万(截至4月21日20:00)。从下载数据来看，该行预计产品的首日新进用户规模表现突出。在玩法层面，根据《异环》官方预热PV，除战斗外的玩法包括载具系统、住宅与角色互动、都市大亨等，其体验结合了玩家平时的生活场景。在角色维度，用户与部分角色提升到对应机遇等级后，可发出出游邀请，一起游览花田、欣赏流星等，具备更多的陪伴类交互，提升沉浸感。总体而言，《异环》与传统二次元开放世界有明显差异玩法，有望通过创新带给玩家不同的体验。该行认为，通过“都市”题材与其他二次元的玩法的差异化，产品有望从已经较为同质化的二次元开放世界中找到新的玩法，提升用户留存意愿，推动产品流水规模的提升。风险提示游戏行业监管加强风险，行业竞争加剧风险，产品上线不及预期的风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"002624":1.9,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"TCHmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":739,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":551127554328776,"gmtCreate":1775574536177,"gmtModify":1775574538706,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"哈哈哈哈哈哈哈","listText":"哈哈哈哈哈哈哈","text":"哈哈哈哈哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551127554328776","repostId":"1107683205","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1107683205","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1775574102,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107683205?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-07 23:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美媒：特朗普表示可能调整对伊朗的最后期限","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107683205","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"目前仍会坚持原定的截止时间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国总统特朗普表示，如果谈判取得进展，周二晚上8点的最后期限可能会有所调整，但目前仍会坚持原定的截止时间。</p><p>另据报道，伊朗已终止与美国之间的直接外交联系。中东官员表示，尽管如此，伊朗与停火调解方的谈判仍在继续。此外，三名伊朗高级官员表示，伊朗方面已通知巴基斯坦，不会再参加旨在停火的会谈。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美媒：特朗普表示可能调整对伊朗的最后期限</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美媒：特朗普表示可能调整对伊朗的最后期限\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-07 23:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美国总统特朗普表示，如果谈判取得进展，周二晚上8点的最后期限可能会有所调整，但目前仍会坚持原定的截止时间。</p><p>另据报道，伊朗已终止与美国之间的直接外交联系。中东官员表示，尽管如此，伊朗与停火调解方的谈判仍在继续。此外，三名伊朗高级官员表示，伊朗方面已通知巴基斯坦，不会再参加旨在停火的会谈。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/00ab710b18d6c3a0335cf6fa35509b7f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107683205","content_text":"美国总统特朗普表示，如果谈判取得进展，周二晚上8点的最后期限可能会有所调整，但目前仍会坚持原定的截止时间。另据报道，伊朗已终止与美国之间的直接外交联系。中东官员表示，尽管如此，伊朗与停火调解方的谈判仍在继续。此外，三名伊朗高级官员表示，伊朗方面已通知巴基斯坦，不会再参加旨在停火的会谈。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":2,".DJI":2,".SPX":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":548897628313696,"gmtCreate":1775030117375,"gmtModify":1775030119548,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$&nbsp;</a> 阿斗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$&nbsp;</a> 阿斗","text":"$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 阿斗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/548897628313696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":870,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":547002056794208,"gmtCreate":1774568902987,"gmtModify":1774568905578,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"很无语……","listText":"很无语……","text":"很无语……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/547002056794208","repostId":"1121347585","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121347585","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1774566055,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121347585?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-27 07:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普推迟十天打击伊朗能源设施，最后期限延至4月6日，称美伊谈判“非常顺利”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121347585","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"特朗普称，应伊朗政府请求，将打击推迟至美东时间4月6日晚8点；美伊谈判正在进行，进展非常顺利，虽然假新闻的说法与其相反。美国总统特朗普宣布再次推迟打击伊朗的能源设施，看来在给美伊谈判留出更多空间。据新华社，特朗普26日周四在社交媒体发文，称对伊朗能源设施空袭再推迟十天，至美东时间4月6日晚8时。特朗普最初给伊朗设定了48小时的最后期限。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>特朗普称，应伊朗政府请求，将打击推迟至美东时间4月6日晚8点；美伊谈判正在进行，进展非常顺利，虽然假新闻的说法与其相反。盘中曾涨近6%的美油一度转跌。这是特朗普发出袭击威胁后第二次延期，他上周六说给48小时，后将截止期延至本周五。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国总统特朗普宣布再次推迟打击伊朗的能源设施，看来在给美伊谈判留出更多空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据新华社，特朗普26日周四在社交媒体发文，称对伊朗能源设施空袭再推迟十天，至美东时间4月6日晚8时。据央视，特朗普在其社交媒体“真实社交”上发文表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“应伊朗政府请求，特此声明：我将把针对（伊朗）能源设施的打击再推迟10天，至美国东部时间2026年4月6日晚8点。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">央视提到，特朗普还称：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“（与伊朗的）谈判正在进行中，虽然假新闻媒体及其他方面发表了错误的相反言论，但谈判进展非常顺利。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普在周四美股盘后发布以上消息后，美元指数涨幅迅速扩大、一度站上100.00，最近三日首次盘中触及这一关口。美油短线跳水。周四美股午盘刷新日高时涨近5.7%的WTI原油一度跌破90.00美元刷新日低，较周三收盘跌近0.6%，后很快重回涨势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这是特朗普自3月21日上周六首次发出威胁后第二次延长设定的打击截止期。3月21日他曾扬言，若伊朗不迅速重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的商业航运，美国将袭击伊朗的发电厂。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普最初给伊朗设定了48小时的最后期限。而在本周一，即期限截止前数小时，特朗普就以美伊双方进行了“富有成效的对话”为由，宣布将袭击行动推迟五天，延至本周五。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周四稍早，特朗普在白宫的内阁会议上暗示，本周五这个他给伊朗设定的开放霍尔木兹海峡最后期限有灵活性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">被问及周五这个截止期是否已推迟时，特朗普在会上表示现在还不清楚。特朗普说，他目前还不确定会不会严格要求伊朗遵守这个截止期，如果参与谈判的总统特使威特科夫等人告知，谈判进展并不顺利，可能就得遵守这个期限。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特朗普推迟十天打击伊朗能源设施，最后期限延至4月6日，称美伊谈判“非常顺利”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特朗普推迟十天打击伊朗能源设施，最后期限延至4月6日，称美伊谈判“非常顺利”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-27 07:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3768510><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特朗普称，应伊朗政府请求，将打击推迟至美东时间4月6日晚8点；美伊谈判正在进行，进展非常顺利，虽然假新闻的说法与其相反。盘中曾涨近6%的美油一度转跌。这是特朗普发出袭击威胁后第二次延期，他上周六说给48小时，后将截止期延至本周五。美国总统特朗普宣布再次推迟打击伊朗的能源设施，看来在给美伊谈判留出更多空间。据新华社，特朗普26日周四在社交媒体发文，称对伊朗能源设施空袭再推迟十天，至美东时间4月6日晚...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3768510\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/293cf6d3b421281de90df773be4685e8","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3768510","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121347585","content_text":"特朗普称，应伊朗政府请求，将打击推迟至美东时间4月6日晚8点；美伊谈判正在进行，进展非常顺利，虽然假新闻的说法与其相反。盘中曾涨近6%的美油一度转跌。这是特朗普发出袭击威胁后第二次延期，他上周六说给48小时，后将截止期延至本周五。美国总统特朗普宣布再次推迟打击伊朗的能源设施，看来在给美伊谈判留出更多空间。据新华社，特朗普26日周四在社交媒体发文，称对伊朗能源设施空袭再推迟十天，至美东时间4月6日晚8时。据央视，特朗普在其社交媒体“真实社交”上发文表示：“应伊朗政府请求，特此声明：我将把针对（伊朗）能源设施的打击再推迟10天，至美国东部时间2026年4月6日晚8点。”央视提到，特朗普还称：“（与伊朗的）谈判正在进行中，虽然假新闻媒体及其他方面发表了错误的相反言论，但谈判进展非常顺利。”特朗普在周四美股盘后发布以上消息后，美元指数涨幅迅速扩大、一度站上100.00，最近三日首次盘中触及这一关口。美油短线跳水。周四美股午盘刷新日高时涨近5.7%的WTI原油一度跌破90.00美元刷新日低，较周三收盘跌近0.6%，后很快重回涨势。这是特朗普自3月21日上周六首次发出威胁后第二次延长设定的打击截止期。3月21日他曾扬言，若伊朗不迅速重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的商业航运，美国将袭击伊朗的发电厂。特朗普最初给伊朗设定了48小时的最后期限。而在本周一，即期限截止前数小时，特朗普就以美伊双方进行了“富有成效的对话”为由，宣布将袭击行动推迟五天，延至本周五。本周四稍早，特朗普在白宫的内阁会议上暗示，本周五这个他给伊朗设定的开放霍尔木兹海峡最后期限有灵活性。被问及周五这个截止期是否已推迟时，特朗普在会上表示现在还不清楚。特朗普说，他目前还不确定会不会严格要求伊朗遵守这个截止期，如果参与谈判的总统特使威特科夫等人告知，谈判进展并不顺利，可能就得遵守这个期限。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":513956544263240,"gmtCreate":1766503824658,"gmtModify":1766503827335,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"一通踏空后的风凉废话","listText":"一通踏空后的风凉废话","text":"一通踏空后的风凉废话","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/513956544263240","repostId":"2593946882","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2593946882","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1766459732,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2593946882?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-23 11:15","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"疯狂的贵金属！金银一色，铂钯齐飞，短期一个大风险“近在眼前”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2593946882","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"贵金属全线飙升，金银创新高，国内铂钯双涨停，而广期所贵金属持仓激增与活跃交易或助推了此轮行情。但狂欢也伴随着风险，摩根大通警告高昂的银价正侵蚀光伏需求。同时，需高度警惕1月8日起彭博商品指数再平衡引发的技术性抛压：预计白银抛售规模占期货持仓9%，黄金占3%，这股巨量强制卖盘或打破新年季节性利好。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>贵金属全线飙升，金银创新高，国内铂钯双涨停，而广期所贵金属持仓激增与活跃交易或助推了此轮行情。但狂欢也伴随着风险，摩根大通警告高昂的银价正侵蚀光伏需求。同时，需高度警惕1月8日起彭博商品指数再平衡引发的技术性抛压：预计白银抛售规模占期货持仓9%，黄金占3%，这股巨量强制卖盘或打破新年季节性利好。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周二，现货黄金、白银均在创下新高后快速回落，盘中转跌。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/160a6390c3fc7f992dde92cc2012f63e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1155\" tg-height=\"408\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c87ac6dc6f2d90c86f20a825606cae7f\" tg-width=\"1161\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">贵金属市场正以一场数十年未见的狂热行情为2025年收官，但在这场由宽松预期和地缘政治风险点燃的盛宴背后，一个可预见的重大风险已悄然临近。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>摩根大通在最新的研究报告中发出警告，由于金银价格连续三年大幅跑赢大市，其在彭博商品指数（BCOM）中的权重已严重超标。这几乎注定了在即将到来的2026年1月指数再平衡期间，跟踪该指数的被动型基金将被迫进行大规模的“技术性抛售”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于市场而言，这意味着一场多空因素的激烈博弈即将上演。一方面是创纪录的价格、强劲的上涨势头和传统的年初季节性利好；另一方面则是一股可预见的、规模庞大的强制性卖盘。这一短期风险“近在眼前”，可能在新年伊始就给高歌猛进的贵金属市场带来剧烈波动。</p><h2 id=\"id_2112313706\" style=\"text-align: left;\">贵金属全线飙升，创数十年未见之涨幅</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">进入“圣诞周”，贵金属市场全线走高，多项品种正迈向自1979年以来最强劲的年度表现。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据BullionVault周一发布的数据，金银价格的年度涨幅为46年来之最。截至年底仅剩几个交易日，黄金年内涨幅已接近70%，白银更是飙升近140%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8effd0458fc4f3f64feb72ecefae83\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"579\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">铂族金属同样表现惊人：铂金周一大涨5.1%至每盎司2075美元的逾16年高位，全年涨幅近130%，是自1990年有伦敦基准价以来最大年度涨幅；钯金也一度上涨4.6%至每盎司1802美元的近4年高位，全年涨幅有望超过95%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9ba8263c53f3fd2d48be7a7761fcd3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"568\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此轮上涨的宏观背景包括美元走软，以及市场对美联储2026年将降息两次的普遍预期，尽管联储官员预测仅有一次。此外，美国在委内瑞拉沿海的军事行动也为市场增添了地缘政治风险溢价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）截至12月9日的数据，对冲基金等投机者在Comex黄金和白银期货及期权中的净多头头寸一直保持在相对温和的水平，并未完全跟上此轮价格的迅猛涨势。</p><h2 id=\"id_200120758\" style=\"text-align: left;\">中国资金助燃铂金狂热</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在铂金的惊人涨势背后，来自中国的交易活动起到了助推作用。摩根大通在12月18日的报告中指出，铂金价格从每盎司1700美元区间跃升至1900美元以上，主要驱动力似乎是中国广州期货交易所（GFEX）“强劲的”期货交易活动和持仓量激增。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告数据显示，自11月27日广州期货交易所推出铂金和钯金期货以来，其铂金合约的日均总成交量已增至近500万盎司，近期甚至超过了纽约商品交易所（NYMEX）的成交量。同时，广州期货交易所的总未平仓合约也飙升至超过100万盎司，约为纽约商品交易所的四分之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">为应对过热的交易，广州期货交易所已于12月18日宣布，将非期货公司会员或客户的铂金和钯金合约持仓限额设定为500手。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19046fd645057d3a534b60d75022f018\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"466\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_741103284\" style=\"text-align: left;\">白银的“双刃剑”：高价侵蚀光伏需求</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于今年涨幅最为惊人的白银而言，其凌厉的涨势正成为一把双刃剑，长期需求破坏的风险日益凸显，尤其是在光伏领域。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通Gregory C. Shearer分析师团队认为，白银年内近130%的涨幅，已将其在太阳能组件总售价中的成本份额从2024年以前通常低于5%的水平，大幅推高至近20%。这严重挤压了光伏组件制造商本已“微薄”的利润空间。高昂的成本正迫使行业加速“节银”（thrifting），即通过技术手段减少银的使用。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告估计，如果镀银铜浆粉和零主栅（0BB）等节银技术加速普及，未来几年可能导致多达5000万至6000万盎司的白银需求受到威胁。尽管短期内，因美国“232条款”关税不确定性导致的实物市场紧张掩盖了这一长期风险，但一旦市场紧张状况缓解，需求破坏的风险可能导致白银相对于黄金的强势表现出现“更急剧的逆转”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b39e32091d37306991ad69dd40ef81\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"378\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2871405849\" style=\"text-align: left;\">技术风暴将至：1月指数再平衡恐引发金银集中抛售</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于贵金属投资者而言，最直接的短期风险来自即将到来的重要商品指数年度再平衡。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻写道，据摩根大通在12月发布的报告警告，备受关注的彭博商品指数（BCOM）将在2026年1月8日开始进行年度权重调整。由于黄金和白银在过去三年中表现出色，其在指数中的权重已远超目标水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，<strong>追踪该指数的被动型基金（资产管理规模超600亿美元）将被迫在1月8日至14日期间集中卖出黄金和白银期货，以完成再平衡。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告对抛售规模给出了明确预测：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>白银</strong>：将面临最沉重的抛压，预计卖盘规模将占其期货市场总未平仓合约的约9%。报告特别强调，今年白银的抛售压力“比去年更为突出”。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>黄金</strong>：预计将面临相当于其总未平仓合约约3%的卖盘。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一可预见的技术性卖盘，将与黄金年初的传统季节性强势（过去10年有8年在年初上涨）形成直接对冲。投资者需要高度警惕，这股强大的资金流出是否会打破历史规律，在新年第一周就给市场带来剧烈震荡。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2027aa66c40323cb42b1269f39267fb\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"646\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>疯狂的贵金属！金银一色，铂钯齐飞，短期一个大风险“近在眼前”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n疯狂的贵金属！金银一色，铂钯齐飞，短期一个大风险“近在眼前”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-23 11:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>贵金属全线飙升，金银创新高，国内铂钯双涨停，而广期所贵金属持仓激增与活跃交易或助推了此轮行情。但狂欢也伴随着风险，摩根大通警告高昂的银价正侵蚀光伏需求。同时，需高度警惕1月8日起彭博商品指数再平衡引发的技术性抛压：预计白银抛售规模占期货持仓9%，黄金占3%，这股巨量强制卖盘或打破新年季节性利好。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周二，现货黄金、白银均在创下新高后快速回落，盘中转跌。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/160a6390c3fc7f992dde92cc2012f63e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1155\" tg-height=\"408\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c87ac6dc6f2d90c86f20a825606cae7f\" tg-width=\"1161\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">贵金属市场正以一场数十年未见的狂热行情为2025年收官，但在这场由宽松预期和地缘政治风险点燃的盛宴背后，一个可预见的重大风险已悄然临近。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>摩根大通在最新的研究报告中发出警告，由于金银价格连续三年大幅跑赢大市，其在彭博商品指数（BCOM）中的权重已严重超标。这几乎注定了在即将到来的2026年1月指数再平衡期间，跟踪该指数的被动型基金将被迫进行大规模的“技术性抛售”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于市场而言，这意味着一场多空因素的激烈博弈即将上演。一方面是创纪录的价格、强劲的上涨势头和传统的年初季节性利好；另一方面则是一股可预见的、规模庞大的强制性卖盘。这一短期风险“近在眼前”，可能在新年伊始就给高歌猛进的贵金属市场带来剧烈波动。</p><h2 id=\"id_2112313706\" style=\"text-align: left;\">贵金属全线飙升，创数十年未见之涨幅</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">进入“圣诞周”，贵金属市场全线走高，多项品种正迈向自1979年以来最强劲的年度表现。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据BullionVault周一发布的数据，金银价格的年度涨幅为46年来之最。截至年底仅剩几个交易日，黄金年内涨幅已接近70%，白银更是飙升近140%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8effd0458fc4f3f64feb72ecefae83\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"579\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">铂族金属同样表现惊人：铂金周一大涨5.1%至每盎司2075美元的逾16年高位，全年涨幅近130%，是自1990年有伦敦基准价以来最大年度涨幅；钯金也一度上涨4.6%至每盎司1802美元的近4年高位，全年涨幅有望超过95%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9ba8263c53f3fd2d48be7a7761fcd3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"568\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此轮上涨的宏观背景包括美元走软，以及市场对美联储2026年将降息两次的普遍预期，尽管联储官员预测仅有一次。此外，美国在委内瑞拉沿海的军事行动也为市场增添了地缘政治风险溢价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）截至12月9日的数据，对冲基金等投机者在Comex黄金和白银期货及期权中的净多头头寸一直保持在相对温和的水平，并未完全跟上此轮价格的迅猛涨势。</p><h2 id=\"id_200120758\" style=\"text-align: left;\">中国资金助燃铂金狂热</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在铂金的惊人涨势背后，来自中国的交易活动起到了助推作用。摩根大通在12月18日的报告中指出，铂金价格从每盎司1700美元区间跃升至1900美元以上，主要驱动力似乎是中国广州期货交易所（GFEX）“强劲的”期货交易活动和持仓量激增。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告数据显示，自11月27日广州期货交易所推出铂金和钯金期货以来，其铂金合约的日均总成交量已增至近500万盎司，近期甚至超过了纽约商品交易所（NYMEX）的成交量。同时，广州期货交易所的总未平仓合约也飙升至超过100万盎司，约为纽约商品交易所的四分之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">为应对过热的交易，广州期货交易所已于12月18日宣布，将非期货公司会员或客户的铂金和钯金合约持仓限额设定为500手。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19046fd645057d3a534b60d75022f018\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"466\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_741103284\" style=\"text-align: left;\">白银的“双刃剑”：高价侵蚀光伏需求</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于今年涨幅最为惊人的白银而言，其凌厉的涨势正成为一把双刃剑，长期需求破坏的风险日益凸显，尤其是在光伏领域。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通Gregory C. Shearer分析师团队认为，白银年内近130%的涨幅，已将其在太阳能组件总售价中的成本份额从2024年以前通常低于5%的水平，大幅推高至近20%。这严重挤压了光伏组件制造商本已“微薄”的利润空间。高昂的成本正迫使行业加速“节银”（thrifting），即通过技术手段减少银的使用。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告估计，如果镀银铜浆粉和零主栅（0BB）等节银技术加速普及，未来几年可能导致多达5000万至6000万盎司的白银需求受到威胁。尽管短期内，因美国“232条款”关税不确定性导致的实物市场紧张掩盖了这一长期风险，但一旦市场紧张状况缓解，需求破坏的风险可能导致白银相对于黄金的强势表现出现“更急剧的逆转”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b39e32091d37306991ad69dd40ef81\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"378\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2871405849\" style=\"text-align: left;\">技术风暴将至：1月指数再平衡恐引发金银集中抛售</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于贵金属投资者而言，最直接的短期风险来自即将到来的重要商品指数年度再平衡。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻写道，据摩根大通在12月发布的报告警告，备受关注的彭博商品指数（BCOM）将在2026年1月8日开始进行年度权重调整。由于黄金和白银在过去三年中表现出色，其在指数中的权重已远超目标水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，<strong>追踪该指数的被动型基金（资产管理规模超600亿美元）将被迫在1月8日至14日期间集中卖出黄金和白银期货，以完成再平衡。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告对抛售规模给出了明确预测：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>白银</strong>：将面临最沉重的抛压，预计卖盘规模将占其期货市场总未平仓合约的约9%。报告特别强调，今年白银的抛售压力“比去年更为突出”。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>黄金</strong>：预计将面临相当于其总未平仓合约约3%的卖盘。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一可预见的技术性卖盘，将与黄金年初的传统季节性强势（过去10年有8年在年初上涨）形成直接对冲。投资者需要高度警惕，这股强大的资金流出是否会打破历史规律，在新年第一周就给市场带来剧烈震荡。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2027aa66c40323cb42b1269f39267fb\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"646\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e59b88731b8c06f5f2f331abdc0376b0","relate_stocks":{"CDE":"科尔黛伦矿业","GFI":"金田","HMY":"哈莫尼黄金"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761886","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2593946882","content_text":"贵金属全线飙升，金银创新高，国内铂钯双涨停，而广期所贵金属持仓激增与活跃交易或助推了此轮行情。但狂欢也伴随着风险，摩根大通警告高昂的银价正侵蚀光伏需求。同时，需高度警惕1月8日起彭博商品指数再平衡引发的技术性抛压：预计白银抛售规模占期货持仓9%，黄金占3%，这股巨量强制卖盘或打破新年季节性利好。周二，现货黄金、白银均在创下新高后快速回落，盘中转跌。贵金属市场正以一场数十年未见的狂热行情为2025年收官，但在这场由宽松预期和地缘政治风险点燃的盛宴背后，一个可预见的重大风险已悄然临近。摩根大通在最新的研究报告中发出警告，由于金银价格连续三年大幅跑赢大市，其在彭博商品指数（BCOM）中的权重已严重超标。这几乎注定了在即将到来的2026年1月指数再平衡期间，跟踪该指数的被动型基金将被迫进行大规模的“技术性抛售”。对于市场而言，这意味着一场多空因素的激烈博弈即将上演。一方面是创纪录的价格、强劲的上涨势头和传统的年初季节性利好；另一方面则是一股可预见的、规模庞大的强制性卖盘。这一短期风险“近在眼前”，可能在新年伊始就给高歌猛进的贵金属市场带来剧烈波动。贵金属全线飙升，创数十年未见之涨幅进入“圣诞周”，贵金属市场全线走高，多项品种正迈向自1979年以来最强劲的年度表现。根据BullionVault周一发布的数据，金银价格的年度涨幅为46年来之最。截至年底仅剩几个交易日，黄金年内涨幅已接近70%，白银更是飙升近140%。铂族金属同样表现惊人：铂金周一大涨5.1%至每盎司2075美元的逾16年高位，全年涨幅近130%，是自1990年有伦敦基准价以来最大年度涨幅；钯金也一度上涨4.6%至每盎司1802美元的近4年高位，全年涨幅有望超过95%。此轮上涨的宏观背景包括美元走软，以及市场对美联储2026年将降息两次的普遍预期，尽管联储官员预测仅有一次。此外，美国在委内瑞拉沿海的军事行动也为市场增添了地缘政治风险溢价。值得注意的是，据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）截至12月9日的数据，对冲基金等投机者在Comex黄金和白银期货及期权中的净多头头寸一直保持在相对温和的水平，并未完全跟上此轮价格的迅猛涨势。中国资金助燃铂金狂热在铂金的惊人涨势背后，来自中国的交易活动起到了助推作用。摩根大通在12月18日的报告中指出，铂金价格从每盎司1700美元区间跃升至1900美元以上，主要驱动力似乎是中国广州期货交易所（GFEX）“强劲的”期货交易活动和持仓量激增。报告数据显示，自11月27日广州期货交易所推出铂金和钯金期货以来，其铂金合约的日均总成交量已增至近500万盎司，近期甚至超过了纽约商品交易所（NYMEX）的成交量。同时，广州期货交易所的总未平仓合约也飙升至超过100万盎司，约为纽约商品交易所的四分之一。为应对过热的交易，广州期货交易所已于12月18日宣布，将非期货公司会员或客户的铂金和钯金合约持仓限额设定为500手。白银的“双刃剑”：高价侵蚀光伏需求对于今年涨幅最为惊人的白银而言，其凌厉的涨势正成为一把双刃剑，长期需求破坏的风险日益凸显，尤其是在光伏领域。摩根大通Gregory C. Shearer分析师团队认为，白银年内近130%的涨幅，已将其在太阳能组件总售价中的成本份额从2024年以前通常低于5%的水平，大幅推高至近20%。这严重挤压了光伏组件制造商本已“微薄”的利润空间。高昂的成本正迫使行业加速“节银”（thrifting），即通过技术手段减少银的使用。报告估计，如果镀银铜浆粉和零主栅（0BB）等节银技术加速普及，未来几年可能导致多达5000万至6000万盎司的白银需求受到威胁。尽管短期内，因美国“232条款”关税不确定性导致的实物市场紧张掩盖了这一长期风险，但一旦市场紧张状况缓解，需求破坏的风险可能导致白银相对于黄金的强势表现出现“更急剧的逆转”。技术风暴将至：1月指数再平衡恐引发金银集中抛售对于贵金属投资者而言，最直接的短期风险来自即将到来的重要商品指数年度再平衡。华尔街见闻写道，据摩根大通在12月发布的报告警告，备受关注的彭博商品指数（BCOM）将在2026年1月8日开始进行年度权重调整。由于黄金和白银在过去三年中表现出色，其在指数中的权重已远超目标水平。因此，追踪该指数的被动型基金（资产管理规模超600亿美元）将被迫在1月8日至14日期间集中卖出黄金和白银期货，以完成再平衡。报告对抛售规模给出了明确预测：白银：将面临最沉重的抛压，预计卖盘规模将占其期货市场总未平仓合约的约9%。报告特别强调，今年白银的抛售压力“比去年更为突出”。黄金：预计将面临相当于其总未平仓合约约3%的卖盘。这一可预见的技术性卖盘，将与黄金年初的传统季节性强势（过去10年有8年在年初上涨）形成直接对冲。投资者需要高度警惕，这股强大的资金流出是否会打破历史规律，在新年第一周就给市场带来剧烈震荡。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GCmain":2,"SImain":2,"GFI":2,"CDE":2,"HMY":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2064,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":503962017088224,"gmtCreate":1764047525460,"gmtModify":1764048865194,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"美国国运啊，搞坏就玩完了","listText":"美国国运啊，搞坏就玩完了","text":"美国国运啊，搞坏就玩完了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/503962017088224","repostId":"2586448652","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2586448652","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1764042773,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2586448652?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-25 11:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"反击大空头！英伟达致信华尔街分析师，反驳会计丑闻等指控","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2586448652","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"英伟达  针对知名空头投资人Michael Burry的指控发布了一份详尽的备忘录，反驳了有关欺诈、会计丑闻和循环融资等指控。英伟达直接回击“大空头”英伟达直接回应了“大空头”Burry的每一项指控，称这些指控对公司的业务实践、财务披露以及当前人工智能投资周期的动态进行了错误描述。这一反击得到了部分华尔街分析师的支持。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>英伟达针对知名空头投资人Michael Burry的指控发布了一份详尽的备忘录，反驳了有关欺诈、会计丑闻和循环融资等指控。英伟达强调其收入质量良好，并对利润率、折旧和监管风险的指控进行了澄清。</p></blockquote><p>上周，在英伟达公布第三财季财报后，华尔街知名的“大空头”、因高调做空AI热门股引发关注的Michael Burry就在社交平台上指责各大科技巨头对自己的营收作出了不实陈述。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">针对他的指控，英伟达已向华尔街分析师们发布了一份详尽的备忘录，对与“大空头”Michael Burry有关的欺诈指控以及题为“能发现6100亿美元欺诈行为的算法”的文章予以反驳。</p><h2 id=\"id_931209130\" style=\"text-align: start;\">英伟达直接回击“大空头”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达直接回应了“大空头”Burry的每一项指控，称这些指控对公司的业务实践、财务披露以及当前人工智能投资周期的动态进行了错误描述。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该备忘录拒绝将此事与过去的会计丑闻相提并论，强调英伟达不使用特殊目的实体（SPV），不依赖供应商融资，并且只有一项披露的担保，其公允价值微不足道。</p><p>在财务细节上，英伟达表示付款条款依然严格，销售未达账项天数（DSO）保持在53天，与过去几年一致。对于Burry重点攻击的折旧与利润率问题，备忘录回应称，今年较高的保修成本反映了Blackwell架构的复杂性，且已进行了适当的会计处理。此外，公司明确表示不知道有任何SEC调查，并指出加密货币价格波动与其会计核算无关。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">针对市场上广泛流传的“6100亿美元循环融资”指控，英伟达在备忘录中澄清，其战略投资在第三季度仅为37亿美元，年初至今约为47亿美元，这仅占其营收的一小部分，所谓巨额循环融资毫无根据。公司还强调，其投资组合公司主要筹集的是第三方资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该公司还强调，投资组合中的公司主要通过第三方筹集资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>反驳财务指控</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因《大空头》一书而闻名的Burry此前曾警告称，华尔街大型科技公司可能低估了与人工智能基础设施相关的折旧费用。在最近的一篇推文中，他指出，这些科技巨头以一种“人为地提高收益”的方式延长了资产的预计使用寿命——这是现代较为常见的欺诈行为之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他表示：“通过购买英伟达芯片/服务器来大幅增加资本支出，这种做法在2-3年的产品周期内进行，不应导致计算设备使用寿命的延长。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Burry估计，从2026年到2028年，整个行业在折旧方面的数据可能会低估约1760亿美元，并指出像甲骨文和Meta这样的公司，其利润在接下来的十年可能会高估超过20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他还透露，截至9月30日，他持有大量针对几只与人工智能相关的股票的看跌期权头寸，包括与英伟达和 Palantir Technologies相关的押注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，英伟达为其会计和运营做法进行了辩护。该公司指出，<strong>强劲的现金转换情况证明了其收入质量良好，并公布了第三季度的运营现金流量为238亿美元，自由现金流量为221亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">自2018财年以来，长期自由现金流量一直约占公认会计准则净利润的98%。该公司表示，库存趋势反映了正常的产品生产节奏和前瞻性指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这份备忘录还反驳了有关利润率、折旧和监管风险的指控。</strong>英伟达向分析师表示，今年更高的保修成本反映了Blackwell架构的复杂性，并且这一情况已得到恰当核算，而坏账费用微不足道，计入了一般及管理费用中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">它还表示，目前并未得知美国证券交易委员会有任何调查行动，而且加密货币价格波动与其会计核算无关。关于内幕交易的指控，该公司称这是对第三方基金行为的错误解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一反击得到了部分华尔街分析师的支持。<strong>Raymond James分析师Simon Leopold在研报中写道，关于“系统性欺诈”的叙事与英伟达的基本面不符。他认为英伟达在AI相关机会上的投资是适当的。</strong></p><p>除了具体的财务澄清，英伟达CEO黄仁勋在上周财报发布后，也针对宏观层面的“泡沫论”做出了直接回应：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“关于AI泡沫有很多讨论，”黄仁勋表示，“但从我们的角度来看，我们看到的是截然不同的景象（From our vantage point, we see something very different）。”</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/739558f5b7f538e207daad422037ad1c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"441\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>反击大空头！英伟达致信华尔街分析师，反驳会计丑闻等指控</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n反击大空头！英伟达致信华尔街分析师，反驳会计丑闻等指控\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-11-25 11:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>英伟达针对知名空头投资人Michael Burry的指控发布了一份详尽的备忘录，反驳了有关欺诈、会计丑闻和循环融资等指控。英伟达强调其收入质量良好，并对利润率、折旧和监管风险的指控进行了澄清。</p></blockquote><p>上周，在英伟达公布第三财季财报后，华尔街知名的“大空头”、因高调做空AI热门股引发关注的Michael Burry就在社交平台上指责各大科技巨头对自己的营收作出了不实陈述。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">针对他的指控，英伟达已向华尔街分析师们发布了一份详尽的备忘录，对与“大空头”Michael Burry有关的欺诈指控以及题为“能发现6100亿美元欺诈行为的算法”的文章予以反驳。</p><h2 id=\"id_931209130\" style=\"text-align: start;\">英伟达直接回击“大空头”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达直接回应了“大空头”Burry的每一项指控，称这些指控对公司的业务实践、财务披露以及当前人工智能投资周期的动态进行了错误描述。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该备忘录拒绝将此事与过去的会计丑闻相提并论，强调英伟达不使用特殊目的实体（SPV），不依赖供应商融资，并且只有一项披露的担保，其公允价值微不足道。</p><p>在财务细节上，英伟达表示付款条款依然严格，销售未达账项天数（DSO）保持在53天，与过去几年一致。对于Burry重点攻击的折旧与利润率问题，备忘录回应称，今年较高的保修成本反映了Blackwell架构的复杂性，且已进行了适当的会计处理。此外，公司明确表示不知道有任何SEC调查，并指出加密货币价格波动与其会计核算无关。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">针对市场上广泛流传的“6100亿美元循环融资”指控，英伟达在备忘录中澄清，其战略投资在第三季度仅为37亿美元，年初至今约为47亿美元，这仅占其营收的一小部分，所谓巨额循环融资毫无根据。公司还强调，其投资组合公司主要筹集的是第三方资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该公司还强调，投资组合中的公司主要通过第三方筹集资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>反驳财务指控</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因《大空头》一书而闻名的Burry此前曾警告称，华尔街大型科技公司可能低估了与人工智能基础设施相关的折旧费用。在最近的一篇推文中，他指出，这些科技巨头以一种“人为地提高收益”的方式延长了资产的预计使用寿命——这是现代较为常见的欺诈行为之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他表示：“通过购买英伟达芯片/服务器来大幅增加资本支出，这种做法在2-3年的产品周期内进行，不应导致计算设备使用寿命的延长。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Burry估计，从2026年到2028年，整个行业在折旧方面的数据可能会低估约1760亿美元，并指出像甲骨文和Meta这样的公司，其利润在接下来的十年可能会高估超过20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他还透露，截至9月30日，他持有大量针对几只与人工智能相关的股票的看跌期权头寸，包括与英伟达和 Palantir Technologies相关的押注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，英伟达为其会计和运营做法进行了辩护。该公司指出，<strong>强劲的现金转换情况证明了其收入质量良好，并公布了第三季度的运营现金流量为238亿美元，自由现金流量为221亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">自2018财年以来，长期自由现金流量一直约占公认会计准则净利润的98%。该公司表示，库存趋势反映了正常的产品生产节奏和前瞻性指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这份备忘录还反驳了有关利润率、折旧和监管风险的指控。</strong>英伟达向分析师表示，今年更高的保修成本反映了Blackwell架构的复杂性，并且这一情况已得到恰当核算，而坏账费用微不足道，计入了一般及管理费用中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">它还表示，目前并未得知美国证券交易委员会有任何调查行动，而且加密货币价格波动与其会计核算无关。关于内幕交易的指控，该公司称这是对第三方基金行为的错误解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一反击得到了部分华尔街分析师的支持。<strong>Raymond James分析师Simon Leopold在研报中写道，关于“系统性欺诈”的叙事与英伟达的基本面不符。他认为英伟达在AI相关机会上的投资是适当的。</strong></p><p>除了具体的财务澄清，英伟达CEO黄仁勋在上周财报发布后，也针对宏观层面的“泡沫论”做出了直接回应：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“关于AI泡沫有很多讨论，”黄仁勋表示，“但从我们的角度来看，我们看到的是截然不同的景象（From our vantage point, we see something very different）。”</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/739558f5b7f538e207daad422037ad1c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"441\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6954d1dc2b34c5f605b752cf346a1934","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251125104633977da988&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2586448652","content_text":"英伟达针对知名空头投资人Michael Burry的指控发布了一份详尽的备忘录，反驳了有关欺诈、会计丑闻和循环融资等指控。英伟达强调其收入质量良好，并对利润率、折旧和监管风险的指控进行了澄清。上周，在英伟达公布第三财季财报后，华尔街知名的“大空头”、因高调做空AI热门股引发关注的Michael Burry就在社交平台上指责各大科技巨头对自己的营收作出了不实陈述。针对他的指控，英伟达已向华尔街分析师们发布了一份详尽的备忘录，对与“大空头”Michael Burry有关的欺诈指控以及题为“能发现6100亿美元欺诈行为的算法”的文章予以反驳。英伟达直接回击“大空头”英伟达直接回应了“大空头”Burry的每一项指控，称这些指控对公司的业务实践、财务披露以及当前人工智能投资周期的动态进行了错误描述。该备忘录拒绝将此事与过去的会计丑闻相提并论，强调英伟达不使用特殊目的实体（SPV），不依赖供应商融资，并且只有一项披露的担保，其公允价值微不足道。在财务细节上，英伟达表示付款条款依然严格，销售未达账项天数（DSO）保持在53天，与过去几年一致。对于Burry重点攻击的折旧与利润率问题，备忘录回应称，今年较高的保修成本反映了Blackwell架构的复杂性，且已进行了适当的会计处理。此外，公司明确表示不知道有任何SEC调查，并指出加密货币价格波动与其会计核算无关。针对市场上广泛流传的“6100亿美元循环融资”指控，英伟达在备忘录中澄清，其战略投资在第三季度仅为37亿美元，年初至今约为47亿美元，这仅占其营收的一小部分，所谓巨额循环融资毫无根据。公司还强调，其投资组合公司主要筹集的是第三方资金。该公司还强调，投资组合中的公司主要通过第三方筹集资金。反驳财务指控因《大空头》一书而闻名的Burry此前曾警告称，华尔街大型科技公司可能低估了与人工智能基础设施相关的折旧费用。在最近的一篇推文中，他指出，这些科技巨头以一种“人为地提高收益”的方式延长了资产的预计使用寿命——这是现代较为常见的欺诈行为之一。他表示：“通过购买英伟达芯片/服务器来大幅增加资本支出，这种做法在2-3年的产品周期内进行，不应导致计算设备使用寿命的延长。”Burry估计，从2026年到2028年，整个行业在折旧方面的数据可能会低估约1760亿美元，并指出像甲骨文和Meta这样的公司，其利润在接下来的十年可能会高估超过20%。他还透露，截至9月30日，他持有大量针对几只与人工智能相关的股票的看跌期权头寸，包括与英伟达和 Palantir Technologies相关的押注。不过，英伟达为其会计和运营做法进行了辩护。该公司指出，强劲的现金转换情况证明了其收入质量良好，并公布了第三季度的运营现金流量为238亿美元，自由现金流量为221亿美元。自2018财年以来，长期自由现金流量一直约占公认会计准则净利润的98%。该公司表示，库存趋势反映了正常的产品生产节奏和前瞻性指引。这份备忘录还反驳了有关利润率、折旧和监管风险的指控。英伟达向分析师表示，今年更高的保修成本反映了Blackwell架构的复杂性，并且这一情况已得到恰当核算，而坏账费用微不足道，计入了一般及管理费用中。它还表示，目前并未得知美国证券交易委员会有任何调查行动，而且加密货币价格波动与其会计核算无关。关于内幕交易的指控，该公司称这是对第三方基金行为的错误解读。这一反击得到了部分华尔街分析师的支持。Raymond James分析师Simon Leopold在研报中写道，关于“系统性欺诈”的叙事与英伟达的基本面不符。他认为英伟达在AI相关机会上的投资是适当的。除了具体的财务澄清，英伟达CEO黄仁勋在上周财报发布后，也针对宏观层面的“泡沫论”做出了直接回应：“关于AI泡沫有很多讨论，”黄仁勋表示，“但从我们的角度来看，我们看到的是截然不同的景象（From our vantage point, we see something very different）。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":503499375194872,"gmtCreate":1763953147375,"gmtModify":1763958355506,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$&nbsp;</a> 你永远是最恶心的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$&nbsp;</a> 你永远是最恶心的","text":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$ 你永远是最恶心的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/503499375194872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":501351789650144,"gmtCreate":1763429888298,"gmtModify":1763429890599,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"首要任务是：买点便宜的好货","listText":"首要任务是：买点便宜的好货","text":"首要任务是：买点便宜的好货","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/501351789650144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":497768183529472,"gmtCreate":1762548288584,"gmtModify":1762548290486,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a> 漂亮的锤子线","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a> 漂亮的锤子线","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 漂亮的锤子线","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/497768183529472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":491670584861160,"gmtCreate":1761057360267,"gmtModify":1761057362732,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"跌跌更健康","listText":"跌跌更健康","text":"跌跌更健康","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/491670584861160","repostId":"1114185793","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1114185793","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1761057186,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114185793?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-21 22:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"现货金、银价格深度回调，分析师警示泡沫风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114185793","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"主要催化剂是极度超买状态。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周二，金、银深度回调，现货黄金盘中大跌超5%，现货白银暴跌近8%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1e06b2c6a6bedf9d4abb2c3de7a4d1d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"425\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7a6aecfef5d4c2fdb166b86437cf10\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1295\" tg-height=\"405\"/></p><p>独立金属交易商Tai Wong表示：“尽管昨日金价下跌时仍有买盘介入，但过去一周高位波动率的急剧飙升释放警示信号，可能引发至少短期内的获利了结。”Kitco Metals高级分析师Jim Wyckoff在报告中指出：“本周初市场风险偏好改善，对避险贵金属构成利空。”</p><p>MKS PAMP SA金属策略主管Nicky Shiels表示：“市场已显现泡沫迹象，主要催化剂是极度超买状态——这轮涨势正在见顶。六周内暴涨1000美元的事实表明，金价已过度高估，我们正处于非理性高位。”分析师指出，近日美元反弹以及因美国政府停摆导致期货市场持仓数据缺失，共同促成了这次自2013年以来最剧烈的金价暴跌。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>现货金、银价格深度回调，分析师警示泡沫风险</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-10-21 22:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周二，金、银深度回调，现货黄金盘中大跌超5%，现货白银暴跌近8%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1e06b2c6a6bedf9d4abb2c3de7a4d1d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"425\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7a6aecfef5d4c2fdb166b86437cf10\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1295\" tg-height=\"405\"/></p><p>独立金属交易商Tai Wong表示：“尽管昨日金价下跌时仍有买盘介入，但过去一周高位波动率的急剧飙升释放警示信号，可能引发至少短期内的获利了结。”Kitco Metals高级分析师Jim Wyckoff在报告中指出：“本周初市场风险偏好改善，对避险贵金属构成利空。”</p><p>MKS PAMP SA金属策略主管Nicky Shiels表示：“市场已显现泡沫迹象，主要催化剂是极度超买状态——这轮涨势正在见顶。六周内暴涨1000美元的事实表明，金价已过度高估，我们正处于非理性高位。”分析师指出，近日美元反弹以及因美国政府停摆导致期货市场持仓数据缺失，共同促成了这次自2013年以来最剧烈的金价暴跌。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63c4b7f0fed80012c8b751d783a3376","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114185793","content_text":"周二，金、银深度回调，现货黄金盘中大跌超5%，现货白银暴跌近8%。独立金属交易商Tai Wong表示：“尽管昨日金价下跌时仍有买盘介入，但过去一周高位波动率的急剧飙升释放警示信号，可能引发至少短期内的获利了结。”Kitco Metals高级分析师Jim Wyckoff在报告中指出：“本周初市场风险偏好改善，对避险贵金属构成利空。”MKS PAMP SA金属策略主管Nicky Shiels表示：“市场已显现泡沫迹象，主要催化剂是极度超买状态——这轮涨势正在见顶。六周内暴涨1000美元的事实表明，金价已过度高估，我们正处于非理性高位。”分析师指出，近日美元反弹以及因美国政府停摆导致期货市场持仓数据缺失，共同促成了这次自2013年以来最剧烈的金价暴跌。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GCmain":1.1,"SImain":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":484095581536584,"gmtCreate":1759216390591,"gmtModify":1759216392860,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"把抢走我的股份数还给我","listText":"把抢走我的股份数还给我","text":"把抢走我的股份数还给我","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/484095581536584","repostId":"1180269543","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1180269543","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1759197556,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180269543?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-30 09:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wolfspeed取消旧股并作为重组计划的一部分发行新股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180269543","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Wolfspeed周一取消了此前发行并流通的股份，这是其削减债务并退出破产计划的一部分。纽约证券交易所上周在一份通知中确认了这一变更，称Wolfspeed发行的普通股是新证券发行的一部分，该股票将于9月29日开始以股票代码WOLF进行交易。根据美国证券交易委员会的一份文件，纽约证券交易所将于10月10日起将Wolfspeed的旧普通股摘牌。Wolfspeed在6月表示，已与债权人达成协议，削减约46亿美元的债务，并将总现金利息支付减少60%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOLF\">Wolfspeed Inc.</a> 成功脱离破产保护程序，并大幅削减了债务和利息成本。公司周一取消了此前发行并流通的股份，这是其削减债务并退出破产计划的一部分。这家半导体公司在向美国证券交易委员会提交的8-K表格中指出，现有股东按比例获得了130万股普通股，兑换比例为0.008352。</p><p>截至发稿，Wolfspeed周二盘前暴涨超36%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db0da185ed254a3e69318007d97aa97a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"124\"/></p><p>公司发行了新股，但未更改其股票代码。截至周一，Wolfspeed的新流通股数约为2584万股，而之前的旧股份数为1.5648亿股。</p><p>纽约证券交易所上周在一份通知中确认了这一变更，称Wolfspeed发行的普通股是新证券发行的一部分，该股票将于9月29日开始以股票代码WOLF进行交易。</p><p>由于盘中波动性较大，交易一度暂停。盘中股价最高升至21.78美元，较开盘价上涨21%。</p><p>根据美国证券交易委员会的一份文件，纽约证券交易所将于10月10日起将Wolfspeed的旧普通股摘牌。目前，旧股交易已被暂停。</p><p>这一进展正值该公司将其注册地从北卡罗来纳州迁至特拉华州，作为持续重组计划的一部分。</p><p>Wolfspeed在6月表示，已与债权人达成协议，削减约46亿美元的债务，并将总现金利息支付减少60%。几天后，公司正式申请第11章破产保护。</p><p>本月初，公司表示其第11章重组计划已获法院批准，并计划在未来几周内退出破产程序。</p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wolfspeed取消旧股并作为重组计划的一部分发行新股</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOLF\">Wolfspeed Inc.</a> 成功脱离破产保护程序，并大幅削减了债务和利息成本。公司周一取消了此前发行并流通的股份，这是其削减债务并退出破产计划的一部分。这家半导体公司在向美国证券交易委员会提交的8-K表格中指出，现有股东按比例获得了130万股普通股，兑换比例为0.008352。</p><p>截至发稿，Wolfspeed周二盘前暴涨超36%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db0da185ed254a3e69318007d97aa97a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"124\"/></p><p>公司发行了新股，但未更改其股票代码。截至周一，Wolfspeed的新流通股数约为2584万股，而之前的旧股份数为1.5648亿股。</p><p>纽约证券交易所上周在一份通知中确认了这一变更，称Wolfspeed发行的普通股是新证券发行的一部分，该股票将于9月29日开始以股票代码WOLF进行交易。</p><p>由于盘中波动性较大，交易一度暂停。盘中股价最高升至21.78美元，较开盘价上涨21%。</p><p>根据美国证券交易委员会的一份文件，纽约证券交易所将于10月10日起将Wolfspeed的旧普通股摘牌。目前，旧股交易已被暂停。</p><p>这一进展正值该公司将其注册地从北卡罗来纳州迁至特拉华州，作为持续重组计划的一部分。</p><p>Wolfspeed在6月表示，已与债权人达成协议，削减约46亿美元的债务，并将总现金利息支付减少60%。几天后，公司正式申请第11章破产保护。</p><p>本月初，公司表示其第11章重组计划已获法院批准，并计划在未来几周内退出破产程序。</p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47aebce4308b42e29c0ebeede253c625","relate_stocks":{"WOLF":"Wolfspeed Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180269543","content_text":"Wolfspeed Inc. 成功脱离破产保护程序，并大幅削减了债务和利息成本。公司周一取消了此前发行并流通的股份，这是其削减债务并退出破产计划的一部分。这家半导体公司在向美国证券交易委员会提交的8-K表格中指出，现有股东按比例获得了130万股普通股，兑换比例为0.008352。截至发稿，Wolfspeed周二盘前暴涨超36%。公司发行了新股，但未更改其股票代码。截至周一，Wolfspeed的新流通股数约为2584万股，而之前的旧股份数为1.5648亿股。纽约证券交易所上周在一份通知中确认了这一变更，称Wolfspeed发行的普通股是新证券发行的一部分，该股票将于9月29日开始以股票代码WOLF进行交易。由于盘中波动性较大，交易一度暂停。盘中股价最高升至21.78美元，较开盘价上涨21%。根据美国证券交易委员会的一份文件，纽约证券交易所将于10月10日起将Wolfspeed的旧普通股摘牌。目前，旧股交易已被暂停。这一进展正值该公司将其注册地从北卡罗来纳州迁至特拉华州，作为持续重组计划的一部分。Wolfspeed在6月表示，已与债权人达成协议，削减约46亿美元的债务，并将总现金利息支付减少60%。几天后，公司正式申请第11章破产保护。本月初，公司表示其第11章重组计划已获法院批准，并计划在未来几周内退出破产程序。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WOLF":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2912,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":355350098,"gmtCreate":1617030166714,"gmtModify":1617030166714,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伊媒称伊美尚未达成谅解备忘录，鲁比奥则称协议仍可能于周一签署","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152925080","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"仍有条款存在争议。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社今天(5月25日)援引一名知情人士的话称，迄今为止美伊双方尚未达成最终谅解备忘录，仍有条款存在争议。鉴于美国过往谈判中屡次失信，伊朗对美方不抱任何乐观预期，即便达成协议，也会密切监督美方履约情况，一旦美方违背承诺，伊朗将保留全部谈判筹码予以反制。(CCTV国际时讯)</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一方面，据半岛电视台报道，美国国务卿鲁比奥表示：<strong>仍有希望与伊朗达成协议。在任何与伊朗达成的协议中，以色列都有权进行自卫。随着谈判的继续，与伊朗的潜在协议最早仍可能于周一签署。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伊媒称伊美尚未达成谅解备忘录，鲁比奥则称协议仍可能于周一签署</title>\n<style 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left;\">伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社今天(5月25日)援引一名知情人士的话称，迄今为止美伊双方尚未达成最终谅解备忘录，仍有条款存在争议。鉴于美国过往谈判中屡次失信，伊朗对美方不抱任何乐观预期，即便达成协议，也会密切监督美方履约情况，一旦美方违背承诺，伊朗将保留全部谈判筹码予以反制。(CCTV国际时讯)</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一方面，据半岛电视台报道，美国国务卿鲁比奥表示：<strong>仍有希望与伊朗达成协议。在任何与伊朗达成的协议中，以色列都有权进行自卫。随着谈判的继续，与伊朗的潜在协议最早仍可能于周一签署。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f19eed0dfe9b6f15725f2f7a21a5852","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152925080","content_text":"伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社今天(5月25日)援引一名知情人士的话称，迄今为止美伊双方尚未达成最终谅解备忘录，仍有条款存在争议。鉴于美国过往谈判中屡次失信，伊朗对美方不抱任何乐观预期，即便达成协议，也会密切监督美方履约情况，一旦美方违背承诺，伊朗将保留全部谈判筹码予以反制。(CCTV国际时讯)另一方面，据半岛电视台报道，美国国务卿鲁比奥表示：仍有希望与伊朗达成协议。在任何与伊朗达成的协议中，以色列都有权进行自卫。随着谈判的继续，与伊朗的潜在协议最早仍可能于周一签署。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":905220017,"gmtCreate":1560403070139,"gmtModify":1704700113751,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$ 科创板就是个屁","listText":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$ 科创板就是个屁","text":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$ 科创板就是个屁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/905220017","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":484095581536584,"gmtCreate":1759216390591,"gmtModify":1759216392860,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"把抢走我的股份数还给我","listText":"把抢走我的股份数还给我","text":"把抢走我的股份数还给我","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/484095581536584","repostId":"1180269543","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1180269543","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1759197556,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180269543?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-30 09:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wolfspeed取消旧股并作为重组计划的一部分发行新股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180269543","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Wolfspeed周一取消了此前发行并流通的股份，这是其削减债务并退出破产计划的一部分。纽约证券交易所上周在一份通知中确认了这一变更，称Wolfspeed发行的普通股是新证券发行的一部分，该股票将于9月29日开始以股票代码WOLF进行交易。根据美国证券交易委员会的一份文件，纽约证券交易所将于10月10日起将Wolfspeed的旧普通股摘牌。Wolfspeed在6月表示，已与债权人达成协议，削减约46亿美元的债务，并将总现金利息支付减少60%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOLF\">Wolfspeed Inc.</a> 成功脱离破产保护程序，并大幅削减了债务和利息成本。公司周一取消了此前发行并流通的股份，这是其削减债务并退出破产计划的一部分。这家半导体公司在向美国证券交易委员会提交的8-K表格中指出，现有股东按比例获得了130万股普通股，兑换比例为0.008352。</p><p>截至发稿，Wolfspeed周二盘前暴涨超36%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db0da185ed254a3e69318007d97aa97a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"124\"/></p><p>公司发行了新股，但未更改其股票代码。截至周一，Wolfspeed的新流通股数约为2584万股，而之前的旧股份数为1.5648亿股。</p><p>纽约证券交易所上周在一份通知中确认了这一变更，称Wolfspeed发行的普通股是新证券发行的一部分，该股票将于9月29日开始以股票代码WOLF进行交易。</p><p>由于盘中波动性较大，交易一度暂停。盘中股价最高升至21.78美元，较开盘价上涨21%。</p><p>根据美国证券交易委员会的一份文件，纽约证券交易所将于10月10日起将Wolfspeed的旧普通股摘牌。目前，旧股交易已被暂停。</p><p>这一进展正值该公司将其注册地从北卡罗来纳州迁至特拉华州，作为持续重组计划的一部分。</p><p>Wolfspeed在6月表示，已与债权人达成协议，削减约46亿美元的债务，并将总现金利息支付减少60%。几天后，公司正式申请第11章破产保护。</p><p>本月初，公司表示其第11章重组计划已获法院批准，并计划在未来几周内退出破产程序。</p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wolfspeed取消旧股并作为重组计划的一部分发行新股</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWolfspeed取消旧股并作为重组计划的一部分发行新股\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-09-30 09:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOLF\">Wolfspeed Inc.</a> 成功脱离破产保护程序，并大幅削减了债务和利息成本。公司周一取消了此前发行并流通的股份，这是其削减债务并退出破产计划的一部分。这家半导体公司在向美国证券交易委员会提交的8-K表格中指出，现有股东按比例获得了130万股普通股，兑换比例为0.008352。</p><p>截至发稿，Wolfspeed周二盘前暴涨超36%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db0da185ed254a3e69318007d97aa97a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"124\"/></p><p>公司发行了新股，但未更改其股票代码。截至周一，Wolfspeed的新流通股数约为2584万股，而之前的旧股份数为1.5648亿股。</p><p>纽约证券交易所上周在一份通知中确认了这一变更，称Wolfspeed发行的普通股是新证券发行的一部分，该股票将于9月29日开始以股票代码WOLF进行交易。</p><p>由于盘中波动性较大，交易一度暂停。盘中股价最高升至21.78美元，较开盘价上涨21%。</p><p>根据美国证券交易委员会的一份文件，纽约证券交易所将于10月10日起将Wolfspeed的旧普通股摘牌。目前，旧股交易已被暂停。</p><p>这一进展正值该公司将其注册地从北卡罗来纳州迁至特拉华州，作为持续重组计划的一部分。</p><p>Wolfspeed在6月表示，已与债权人达成协议，削减约46亿美元的债务，并将总现金利息支付减少60%。几天后，公司正式申请第11章破产保护。</p><p>本月初，公司表示其第11章重组计划已获法院批准，并计划在未来几周内退出破产程序。</p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47aebce4308b42e29c0ebeede253c625","relate_stocks":{"WOLF":"Wolfspeed Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180269543","content_text":"Wolfspeed Inc. 成功脱离破产保护程序，并大幅削减了债务和利息成本。公司周一取消了此前发行并流通的股份，这是其削减债务并退出破产计划的一部分。这家半导体公司在向美国证券交易委员会提交的8-K表格中指出，现有股东按比例获得了130万股普通股，兑换比例为0.008352。截至发稿，Wolfspeed周二盘前暴涨超36%。公司发行了新股，但未更改其股票代码。截至周一，Wolfspeed的新流通股数约为2584万股，而之前的旧股份数为1.5648亿股。纽约证券交易所上周在一份通知中确认了这一变更，称Wolfspeed发行的普通股是新证券发行的一部分，该股票将于9月29日开始以股票代码WOLF进行交易。由于盘中波动性较大，交易一度暂停。盘中股价最高升至21.78美元，较开盘价上涨21%。根据美国证券交易委员会的一份文件，纽约证券交易所将于10月10日起将Wolfspeed的旧普通股摘牌。目前，旧股交易已被暂停。这一进展正值该公司将其注册地从北卡罗来纳州迁至特拉华州，作为持续重组计划的一部分。Wolfspeed在6月表示，已与债权人达成协议，削减约46亿美元的债务，并将总现金利息支付减少60%。几天后，公司正式申请第11章破产保护。本月初，公司表示其第11章重组计划已获法院批准，并计划在未来几周内退出破产程序。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WOLF":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2912,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":472858022727864,"gmtCreate":1756475999873,"gmtModify":1756476001748,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"阿里不可能开发得出芯片，电商都快做不好了","listText":"阿里不可能开发得出芯片，电商都快做不好了","text":"阿里不可能开发得出芯片，电商都快做不好了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/472858022727864","repostId":"1143336870","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1143336870","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1756474727,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143336870?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-29 21:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场消息：阿里开发新款AI芯片顶替英伟达，不再由台积电代工","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143336870","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"转为由国内一家企业代工。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周五， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a> 盘初大涨超9%。同时， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 快速下挫超3%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a> 跌超2%。市场消息：<strong>阿里开发了一款新的AI芯片，填补英伟达在中国市场的空白。</strong>知情人士称，这款新芯片目前正在测试中，旨在服务于更广泛的人工智能推理任务，而且与英伟达兼容。</p><p>新的芯片不再由台积电代工，转为由国内一家企业代工。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45000285c8e73c4a5ead23daadd14c82\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d5a7686317b6ccdb1ef7f6133b3f4c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adb08d03b8d918c2c8ec9dd9fd9c0dcd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场消息：阿里开发新款AI芯片顶替英伟达，不再由台积电代工</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场消息：阿里开发新款AI芯片顶替英伟达，不再由台积电代工\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-08-29 21:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周五， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a> 盘初大涨超9%。同时， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 快速下挫超3%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a> 跌超2%。市场消息：<strong>阿里开发了一款新的AI芯片，填补英伟达在中国市场的空白。</strong>知情人士称，这款新芯片目前正在测试中，旨在服务于更广泛的人工智能推理任务，而且与英伟达兼容。</p><p>新的芯片不再由台积电代工，转为由国内一家企业代工。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45000285c8e73c4a5ead23daadd14c82\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d5a7686317b6ccdb1ef7f6133b3f4c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adb08d03b8d918c2c8ec9dd9fd9c0dcd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5177d7812ef76cff1bd9b42843979808","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","BABA":"阿里巴巴","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143336870","content_text":"周五， 阿里巴巴 盘初大涨超9%。同时， 英伟达 快速下挫超3%， 台积电 跌超2%。市场消息：阿里开发了一款新的AI芯片，填补英伟达在中国市场的空白。知情人士称，这款新芯片目前正在测试中，旨在服务于更广泛的人工智能推理任务，而且与英伟达兼容。新的芯片不再由台积电代工，转为由国内一家企业代工。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1.1,"TSM":1.1,"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3467026553147025","authorId":"3467026553147025","name":"不要给我谈梦想","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e7bd71f323dad952a53a59a8022135","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3467026553147025","idStr":"3467026553147025"},"content":"阿里的通义ai确实好用，尤其是视频生成，而且还有很多的免费额度","text":"阿里的通义ai确实好用，尤其是视频生成，而且还有很多的免费额度","html":"阿里的通义ai确实好用，尤其是视频生成，而且还有很多的免费额度"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":566523486848104,"gmtCreate":1779345724539,"gmtModify":1779345726894,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"理华尔街作甚？","listText":"理华尔街作甚？","text":"理华尔街作甚？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566523486848104","repostId":"2637047068","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2637047068","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1779344091,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2637047068?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-21 14:14","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"英伟达业绩创下最佳的一次“超预期”，为何华尔街还嫌不“完美”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2637047068","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"英伟达盘后下跌，当\"超预期\"成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>英伟达盘后下跌，当&#34;超预期&#34;成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达又一次交出“超预期业绩加上调指引”的成绩单，但市场反应显示，对全球AI龙头而言，强劲增长已不再自动等于股价上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达财年第一季度营收为816亿美元，高于市场预期的790亿美元，同比增长85%；调整后每股收益为1.87美元，高于预期的1.75美元。公司预计7月季度营收为910亿美元，也高于FactSet共识预期的873亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便如此，英伟达股价周三盘后最终下跌约1%。公司给出的调整后毛利率目标为75%，与最近一个季度持平，没有出现市场担忧的利润率收缩，但仍未能推动股价走高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Direxion产品与策略高级副总裁Ryan Lee写道，“市场要求世界最大公司做到完美。”Direxion资本市场负责人Jake Behan补充称，<strong>当预期已经如此之高时，即使一份强劲财报，如果没有实质性抬高长期前景，也可能压制股价。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1105007441\" style=\"text-align: left;\">业绩全面高于预期，但“惊喜”不再稀缺</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达本季度核心指标几乎全面超过华尔街预期。营收同比增速从上一季度的73.2%加快至85%，也高于去年11月季度62%的同比增速。调整后每股收益同样高于市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心仍是最大支柱。财年第一季度数据中心收入为752亿美元，同比增长92%，环比增长21%，高于FactSet预期的731亿美元。公司称增长来自Blackwell架构的持续强劲需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Investing.com分析师Thomas Monteiro认为，<strong>这是英伟达最近几个季度中“最干净的一次超预期”，因为业绩不仅跨过了很高的门槛，也回应了市场围绕AI交易的一些更大疑问。</strong>他认为，目前没有看到需求放缓的明显迹象。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但投资者的反应更谨慎。Jefferies交易台分析师Jeffrey Favuzza将盘后走势称为一场<strong>“knife fight”</strong>。他认为，这<strong>份财报之后，买方对2027年和2028年的盈利预期未必会明显上调。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1051977213\" style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心仍在加速，网络业务成为关键支撑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达增长的质量，更多体现在数据中心内部结构上。除GPU需求外，网络业务正在成为更重要的收入来源。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司本季度数据中心网络收入达到148亿美元，创下纪录，同比增长199%，环比增长35%，高于分析师预期的140亿美元。更广义的计算与网络业务收入为756亿美元，同比增长88%，环比增长21%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CFO Colette Kress在电话会上表示，<strong>Blackwell架构已经“无处不在”，并被主要超大规模云厂商，云服务商和主要模型开发商采用和部署。她还提到，OpenAI的新GPT-5.5模型依赖Blackwell。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这对市场很重要。AI基础设施支出不再只是购买单一芯片，而是转向系统，网络和集群能力。Monteiro称，英伟达正在捕捉AI建设中更大份额的支出，客户不仅购买芯片，也购买连接和扩展这些芯片的系统。</p><h2 id=\"id_3870000170\" style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街寻找新叙事：CPU，推理和智能体AI</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达最熟悉的投资叙事是GPU，但华尔街正在要求更多。HSBC的Frank Lee此前写道，GPU动能已经成为“相对不那么有意义”的投资叙事，因为云公司AI资本开支正流向更多领域，包括内存，网络和服务器CPU。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达试图给出新的增长路径。随着AI从训练转向推理，并进一步进入智能体AI阶段，CPU的重要性上升。Jensen Huang在电话会上表示，未来可能会出现数十亿个AI智能体，推理硬件需求将随之增加。他称，“思考”发生在GPU上，而编排基本运行在CPU上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Colette Kress表示，Vera CPU为英伟达打开了一个全新的2000亿美元可服务市场。</strong>她还称，公司今年对CPU收入已有接近200亿美元的可见度，这将为英伟达成为全球领先CPU供应商奠定基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达的Vera CPU将与下一代Rubin GPU协同工作。Jensen Huang表示，公司预计销售“数百万个Rubin”，并且每两个Rubin将连接一个Vera。这意味着CPU并非简单替代GPU，而是嵌入英伟达的系统级销售模式。</p><h2 id=\"id_1963357280\" style=\"text-align: left;\">股东回报大幅提高，但仍有人嫌不够</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达同时试图通过资本回报扩大投资者基础。公司宣布将股票回购计划增加800亿美元，加上此前授权中剩余的385亿美元，回购空间进一步扩大。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财年第一季度，英伟达回购金额为193.1亿美元，是上一季度38.2亿美元的四倍多，也较上年同期增长37%。公司还将季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至0.25美元，隐含股息率从0.02%升至0.45%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这回应了部分投资者诉求。BofA的Vivek Arya此前写道，英伟达股票已被约78%的主动型基金经理持有，较大的既有持仓可能使未来股价上涨面临挑战；其他大型科技公司曾通过提高现金回报吸引股息和收入型投资者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但回报力度仍未完全满足市场。Jeffrey Favuzza称，<strong>对部分投资者而言，800亿美元回购“略低于预期”。</strong>据Birinyi Associates截至4月中旬的数据，只有苹果曾宣布过规模更大的回购授权。</p><h2 id=\"id_1474008724\" style=\"text-align: left;\">更大的考验在长期预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份财报没有显示AI需求放缓，也没有显示毛利率承压，但它没有完全解除华尔街的长期疑虑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Gabelli Funds投资组合经理John Belton此前表示，英伟达是AI资本开支的主要受益者，但未来几年关键问题是这些资本开支是否能产生回报。他称，最新一轮财报后，超大规模云厂商今年AI支出趋势指向约7000亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>客户集中度也是风险点。</strong>Belton表示，英伟达约一半收入来自少数超大规模客户，而这些客户正在显著消耗自由现金流。投资者将关注英伟达是否能扩大客户基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达也在调整披露框架。公司将报告结构改为“数据中心”和“边缘计算”两大类，数据中心再细分为超大规模云厂商以及ACIE，即AI云，工业和企业。Founder ETFs投资组合经理Michael Monaghan称，这一变化显示出Jensen Huang眼中的增长方向，主权AI，企业和物理AI已经大到值得单独披露。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，英伟达的问题不是业绩不强，而是强劲已被充分预期。对华尔街而言，下一步需要看到的不是又一次超预期，而是足以重新抬高长期增长曲线的新证据。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达业绩创下最佳的一次“超预期”，为何华尔街还嫌不“完美”？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达业绩创下最佳的一次“超预期”，为何华尔街还嫌不“完美”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-21 14:14</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>英伟达盘后下跌，当&#34;超预期&#34;成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达又一次交出“超预期业绩加上调指引”的成绩单，但市场反应显示，对全球AI龙头而言，强劲增长已不再自动等于股价上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达财年第一季度营收为816亿美元，高于市场预期的790亿美元，同比增长85%；调整后每股收益为1.87美元，高于预期的1.75美元。公司预计7月季度营收为910亿美元，也高于FactSet共识预期的873亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便如此，英伟达股价周三盘后最终下跌约1%。公司给出的调整后毛利率目标为75%，与最近一个季度持平，没有出现市场担忧的利润率收缩，但仍未能推动股价走高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Direxion产品与策略高级副总裁Ryan Lee写道，“市场要求世界最大公司做到完美。”Direxion资本市场负责人Jake Behan补充称，<strong>当预期已经如此之高时，即使一份强劲财报，如果没有实质性抬高长期前景，也可能压制股价。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1105007441\" style=\"text-align: left;\">业绩全面高于预期，但“惊喜”不再稀缺</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达本季度核心指标几乎全面超过华尔街预期。营收同比增速从上一季度的73.2%加快至85%，也高于去年11月季度62%的同比增速。调整后每股收益同样高于市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心仍是最大支柱。财年第一季度数据中心收入为752亿美元，同比增长92%，环比增长21%，高于FactSet预期的731亿美元。公司称增长来自Blackwell架构的持续强劲需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Investing.com分析师Thomas Monteiro认为，<strong>这是英伟达最近几个季度中“最干净的一次超预期”，因为业绩不仅跨过了很高的门槛，也回应了市场围绕AI交易的一些更大疑问。</strong>他认为，目前没有看到需求放缓的明显迹象。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但投资者的反应更谨慎。Jefferies交易台分析师Jeffrey Favuzza将盘后走势称为一场<strong>“knife fight”</strong>。他认为，这<strong>份财报之后，买方对2027年和2028年的盈利预期未必会明显上调。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1051977213\" style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心仍在加速，网络业务成为关键支撑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达增长的质量，更多体现在数据中心内部结构上。除GPU需求外，网络业务正在成为更重要的收入来源。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司本季度数据中心网络收入达到148亿美元，创下纪录，同比增长199%，环比增长35%，高于分析师预期的140亿美元。更广义的计算与网络业务收入为756亿美元，同比增长88%，环比增长21%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CFO Colette Kress在电话会上表示，<strong>Blackwell架构已经“无处不在”，并被主要超大规模云厂商，云服务商和主要模型开发商采用和部署。她还提到，OpenAI的新GPT-5.5模型依赖Blackwell。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这对市场很重要。AI基础设施支出不再只是购买单一芯片，而是转向系统，网络和集群能力。Monteiro称，英伟达正在捕捉AI建设中更大份额的支出，客户不仅购买芯片，也购买连接和扩展这些芯片的系统。</p><h2 id=\"id_3870000170\" style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街寻找新叙事：CPU，推理和智能体AI</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达最熟悉的投资叙事是GPU，但华尔街正在要求更多。HSBC的Frank Lee此前写道，GPU动能已经成为“相对不那么有意义”的投资叙事，因为云公司AI资本开支正流向更多领域，包括内存，网络和服务器CPU。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达试图给出新的增长路径。随着AI从训练转向推理，并进一步进入智能体AI阶段，CPU的重要性上升。Jensen Huang在电话会上表示，未来可能会出现数十亿个AI智能体，推理硬件需求将随之增加。他称，“思考”发生在GPU上，而编排基本运行在CPU上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Colette Kress表示，Vera CPU为英伟达打开了一个全新的2000亿美元可服务市场。</strong>她还称，公司今年对CPU收入已有接近200亿美元的可见度，这将为英伟达成为全球领先CPU供应商奠定基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达的Vera CPU将与下一代Rubin GPU协同工作。Jensen Huang表示，公司预计销售“数百万个Rubin”，并且每两个Rubin将连接一个Vera。这意味着CPU并非简单替代GPU，而是嵌入英伟达的系统级销售模式。</p><h2 id=\"id_1963357280\" style=\"text-align: left;\">股东回报大幅提高，但仍有人嫌不够</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达同时试图通过资本回报扩大投资者基础。公司宣布将股票回购计划增加800亿美元，加上此前授权中剩余的385亿美元，回购空间进一步扩大。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财年第一季度，英伟达回购金额为193.1亿美元，是上一季度38.2亿美元的四倍多，也较上年同期增长37%。公司还将季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至0.25美元，隐含股息率从0.02%升至0.45%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这回应了部分投资者诉求。BofA的Vivek Arya此前写道，英伟达股票已被约78%的主动型基金经理持有，较大的既有持仓可能使未来股价上涨面临挑战；其他大型科技公司曾通过提高现金回报吸引股息和收入型投资者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但回报力度仍未完全满足市场。Jeffrey Favuzza称，<strong>对部分投资者而言，800亿美元回购“略低于预期”。</strong>据Birinyi Associates截至4月中旬的数据，只有苹果曾宣布过规模更大的回购授权。</p><h2 id=\"id_1474008724\" style=\"text-align: left;\">更大的考验在长期预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份财报没有显示AI需求放缓，也没有显示毛利率承压，但它没有完全解除华尔街的长期疑虑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Gabelli Funds投资组合经理John Belton此前表示，英伟达是AI资本开支的主要受益者，但未来几年关键问题是这些资本开支是否能产生回报。他称，最新一轮财报后，超大规模云厂商今年AI支出趋势指向约7000亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>客户集中度也是风险点。</strong>Belton表示，英伟达约一半收入来自少数超大规模客户，而这些客户正在显著消耗自由现金流。投资者将关注英伟达是否能扩大客户基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达也在调整披露框架。公司将报告结构改为“数据中心”和“边缘计算”两大类，数据中心再细分为超大规模云厂商以及ACIE，即AI云，工业和企业。Founder ETFs投资组合经理Michael Monaghan称，这一变化显示出Jensen Huang眼中的增长方向，主权AI，企业和物理AI已经大到值得单独披露。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，英伟达的问题不是业绩不强，而是强劲已被充分预期。对华尔街而言，下一步需要看到的不是又一次超预期，而是足以重新抬高长期增长曲线的新证据。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94518631ea8630131b1a8562c1b55bdd","relate_stocks":{"IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU2487616109.SGD":"JPM AMERICA EQUITY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","SG9999014898.SGD":"United Global Quality Growth Fund Dis SGD","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0210528500.USD":"JPM AMERICA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","LU1323610961.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - LONG TERM THEMES (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4605":"半导体精选","SGXZ99366536.SGD":"United Global Innovation A Acc SGD-H","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE00B4YYXB79.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND 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GROWTH \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0210536198.USD":"JPM US GROWTH \"A\" ACC","LU0187121727.USD":"FIDELITY SUSTAINABLE US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0823434740.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0354030511.USD":"ALLSPRING  U.S. LARGE CAP GROWTH \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU0354030438.USD":"富国美国大盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0143551892.USD":"T ROWE PRICE GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2462591277.SGD":"TRP GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"AN\" (SGDHDG) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772797","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2637047068","content_text":"英伟达盘后下跌，当\"超预期\"成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。英伟达又一次交出“超预期业绩加上调指引”的成绩单，但市场反应显示，对全球AI龙头而言，强劲增长已不再自动等于股价上涨。英伟达财年第一季度营收为816亿美元，高于市场预期的790亿美元，同比增长85%；调整后每股收益为1.87美元，高于预期的1.75美元。公司预计7月季度营收为910亿美元，也高于FactSet共识预期的873亿美元。即便如此，英伟达股价周三盘后最终下跌约1%。公司给出的调整后毛利率目标为75%，与最近一个季度持平，没有出现市场担忧的利润率收缩，但仍未能推动股价走高。Direxion产品与策略高级副总裁Ryan Lee写道，“市场要求世界最大公司做到完美。”Direxion资本市场负责人Jake Behan补充称，当预期已经如此之高时，即使一份强劲财报，如果没有实质性抬高长期前景，也可能压制股价。业绩全面高于预期，但“惊喜”不再稀缺英伟达本季度核心指标几乎全面超过华尔街预期。营收同比增速从上一季度的73.2%加快至85%，也高于去年11月季度62%的同比增速。调整后每股收益同样高于市场预期。数据中心仍是最大支柱。财年第一季度数据中心收入为752亿美元，同比增长92%，环比增长21%，高于FactSet预期的731亿美元。公司称增长来自Blackwell架构的持续强劲需求。Investing.com分析师Thomas Monteiro认为，这是英伟达最近几个季度中“最干净的一次超预期”，因为业绩不仅跨过了很高的门槛，也回应了市场围绕AI交易的一些更大疑问。他认为，目前没有看到需求放缓的明显迹象。但投资者的反应更谨慎。Jefferies交易台分析师Jeffrey Favuzza将盘后走势称为一场“knife fight”。他认为，这份财报之后，买方对2027年和2028年的盈利预期未必会明显上调。数据中心仍在加速，网络业务成为关键支撑英伟达增长的质量，更多体现在数据中心内部结构上。除GPU需求外，网络业务正在成为更重要的收入来源。公司本季度数据中心网络收入达到148亿美元，创下纪录，同比增长199%，环比增长35%，高于分析师预期的140亿美元。更广义的计算与网络业务收入为756亿美元，同比增长88%，环比增长21%。CFO Colette Kress在电话会上表示，Blackwell架构已经“无处不在”，并被主要超大规模云厂商，云服务商和主要模型开发商采用和部署。她还提到，OpenAI的新GPT-5.5模型依赖Blackwell。这对市场很重要。AI基础设施支出不再只是购买单一芯片，而是转向系统，网络和集群能力。Monteiro称，英伟达正在捕捉AI建设中更大份额的支出，客户不仅购买芯片，也购买连接和扩展这些芯片的系统。华尔街寻找新叙事：CPU，推理和智能体AI英伟达最熟悉的投资叙事是GPU，但华尔街正在要求更多。HSBC的Frank Lee此前写道，GPU动能已经成为“相对不那么有意义”的投资叙事，因为云公司AI资本开支正流向更多领域，包括内存，网络和服务器CPU。英伟达试图给出新的增长路径。随着AI从训练转向推理，并进一步进入智能体AI阶段，CPU的重要性上升。Jensen Huang在电话会上表示，未来可能会出现数十亿个AI智能体，推理硬件需求将随之增加。他称，“思考”发生在GPU上，而编排基本运行在CPU上。Colette Kress表示，Vera CPU为英伟达打开了一个全新的2000亿美元可服务市场。她还称，公司今年对CPU收入已有接近200亿美元的可见度，这将为英伟达成为全球领先CPU供应商奠定基础。英伟达的Vera CPU将与下一代Rubin GPU协同工作。Jensen Huang表示，公司预计销售“数百万个Rubin”，并且每两个Rubin将连接一个Vera。这意味着CPU并非简单替代GPU，而是嵌入英伟达的系统级销售模式。股东回报大幅提高，但仍有人嫌不够英伟达同时试图通过资本回报扩大投资者基础。公司宣布将股票回购计划增加800亿美元，加上此前授权中剩余的385亿美元，回购空间进一步扩大。财年第一季度，英伟达回购金额为193.1亿美元，是上一季度38.2亿美元的四倍多，也较上年同期增长37%。公司还将季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至0.25美元，隐含股息率从0.02%升至0.45%。这回应了部分投资者诉求。BofA的Vivek Arya此前写道，英伟达股票已被约78%的主动型基金经理持有，较大的既有持仓可能使未来股价上涨面临挑战；其他大型科技公司曾通过提高现金回报吸引股息和收入型投资者。但回报力度仍未完全满足市场。Jeffrey Favuzza称，对部分投资者而言，800亿美元回购“略低于预期”。据Birinyi Associates截至4月中旬的数据，只有苹果曾宣布过规模更大的回购授权。更大的考验在长期预期这份财报没有显示AI需求放缓，也没有显示毛利率承压，但它没有完全解除华尔街的长期疑虑。Gabelli Funds投资组合经理John Belton此前表示，英伟达是AI资本开支的主要受益者，但未来几年关键问题是这些资本开支是否能产生回报。他称，最新一轮财报后，超大规模云厂商今年AI支出趋势指向约7000亿美元。客户集中度也是风险点。Belton表示，英伟达约一半收入来自少数超大规模客户，而这些客户正在显著消耗自由现金流。投资者将关注英伟达是否能扩大客户基础。英伟达也在调整披露框架。公司将报告结构改为“数据中心”和“边缘计算”两大类，数据中心再细分为超大规模云厂商以及ACIE，即AI云，工业和企业。Founder ETFs投资组合经理Michael Monaghan称，这一变化显示出Jensen Huang眼中的增长方向，主权AI，企业和物理AI已经大到值得单独披露。因此，英伟达的问题不是业绩不强，而是强劲已被充分预期。对华尔街而言，下一步需要看到的不是又一次超预期，而是足以重新抬高长期增长曲线的新证据。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDY":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"07388":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDA":2,"NVDG":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"07788":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561608421303264,"gmtCreate":1778143131331,"gmtModify":1778143133697,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"第一批要死的空头出现了","listText":"第一批要死的空头出现了","text":"第一批要死的空头出现了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561608421303264","repostId":"1162488996","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162488996","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1778141855,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162488996?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-07 16:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权聚焦 | 英特尔IV百分位飙至100%历史极值！大单现213万美元熊市Put组合押注短线波动，远月864万美元买入深度实值Call彰显长期看多","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162488996","media":"期权女巫","summary":"英特尔收盘报113.01美元，涨4.49%。机构交易者构建了价值213万美元的熊市看跌期权组合，押注短期内股价波动或下行。同时，有交易者斥资864万美元买入远月深度实值看涨期权，彰显了对公司长期价值的坚定信心，并辅以超远月看跌期权进行对冲，反映出市场在剧烈波动预期下的多空分歧与谨慎心态。短线交易者押注波动或下跌，而长线资金则在进行看多布局的同时，买入保护性看跌期权以对冲风险。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英特尔收盘报113.01美元，涨4.49%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">近期英特尔期权市场出现显著的大单交易活动，呈现出短线博弈与长期布局并存的复杂格局。机构交易者构建了价值213万美元的熊市看跌期权组合，押注短期内股价波动或下行。同时，有交易者斥资864万美元买入远月深度实值看涨期权，彰显了对公司长期价值的坚定信心，并辅以超远月看跌期权进行对冲，反映出<strong>市场在剧烈波动预期下的多空分歧与谨慎心态。</strong></p><h3 id=\"id_3675535337\" style=\"text-align: left;\">期权指标分析</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1. <strong>隐含波动率与成交量分析</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前英特尔的隐含波动率（IV）高达85.86%，其IV百分位<strong>达到100.00%的极值</strong>，表明期权定价处于历史最高位，市场预期未来股价将出现剧烈波动。看跌/看涨成交量比率为0.87，结合大单数据，看涨期权总成交量（8946张）略高于看跌期权（6340张），显示多空交投活跃但方向性并不极端。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2. <strong>值得关注的未平仓合约</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在2026年5月15日到期的合约中，<strong>行权价120.0美元、100.0美元和95.0美元的看涨期权未平仓合约数分别高达30,770张、16,035张和14,826张。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/74e067d311dfee1c2868a6c5db3a4bfa\" tg-width=\"1755\" tg-height=\"717\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这些高持仓量区域可能成为未来股价上行的重要阻力或支撑位。</p><h3 id=\"id_397935552\" style=\"text-align: left;\">大单交易</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>整体方向与结构：</strong>市场呈现“短线博弈、远月多空对冲”的格局。短线交易者押注波动或下跌，而长线资金则在进行看多布局的同时，买入保护性看跌期权以对冲风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>关键大单解析：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1. 短线偏空押注：熊市看跌组合</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：同时买入2026年5月15日到期、行权价107.00美元和108.00美元的看跌期权各2,545张，净支出约<strong>213万美元</strong>。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：当前股价（113.01美元）高于行权价，此为买入虚值看跌期权，纯粹押注股价在短期内（至5月15日）下跌或波动率飙升。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT$  </a></strong></p><p><strong>‌‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/91f5c724b0345c1f68a76c531a326439\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"777\"/></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>2. 长期看多彰显信心：深度实值看涨期权</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：买入1,800张2026年7月17日到期、行权价65.00美元的看涨期权，成交额<strong>864万美元</strong>。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：当前股价远高于行权价，此为深度实值看涨期权，通常被视为利用杠杆进行长期股票替代或强烈看多的信号，而非短期投机。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/80735a908bfa46ed86ea4e4bf90da8df\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>3. 远月对冲与上行博弈</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：分别买入价值<strong>353.75万美元</strong>的2027年3月到期、行权价110美元看跌期权（虚值），以及<strong>213.6万美元</strong>的2026年9月到期、行权价130美元看涨期权（虚值）。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：进一步印证远月期权的多空对冲布局——前者用于长期保护或看跌，后者博取上行突破。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT$  </a></strong></p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ae16ec1feea19e67ba3795a72018872\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"738\"/></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>4. 近月方向博弈</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：近月（2026年5月8日到期）买入3,646张行权价112美元的看涨期权，成交额<strong>117万美元</strong>。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：当前股价接近行权价，属于对短期方向或事件性波动的直接押注，与前述看跌组合共同加剧短线不确定性。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/56e740382d8474786bfb25a5e529bde9\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"371\"/></p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_970378957\">总体策略参考</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">鉴于隐含波动率处于历史极值，期权价格昂贵，单纯卖出深度虚值（如行权价140美元以上的Call或90美元以下的Put）期权被行权的概率虽低，但需警惕波动率回落带来的合约价值衰减风险，且需承担高额保证金。对于风险承受能力有限的投资者，可以考虑构建价差策略（如熊市看涨价差或牛市看跌价差）来限制最大亏损，同时从高波动率环境中获利。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权聚焦 | 英特尔IV百分位飙至100%历史极值！大单现213万美元熊市Put组合押注短线波动，远月864万美元买入深度实值Call彰显长期看多</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权聚焦 | 英特尔IV百分位飙至100%历史极值！大单现213万美元熊市Put组合押注短线波动，远月864万美元买入深度实值Call彰显长期看多\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-07 16:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英特尔收盘报113.01美元，涨4.49%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">近期英特尔期权市场出现显著的大单交易活动，呈现出短线博弈与长期布局并存的复杂格局。机构交易者构建了价值213万美元的熊市看跌期权组合，押注短期内股价波动或下行。同时，有交易者斥资864万美元买入远月深度实值看涨期权，彰显了对公司长期价值的坚定信心，并辅以超远月看跌期权进行对冲，反映出<strong>市场在剧烈波动预期下的多空分歧与谨慎心态。</strong></p><h3 id=\"id_3675535337\" style=\"text-align: left;\">期权指标分析</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1. <strong>隐含波动率与成交量分析</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前英特尔的隐含波动率（IV）高达85.86%，其IV百分位<strong>达到100.00%的极值</strong>，表明期权定价处于历史最高位，市场预期未来股价将出现剧烈波动。看跌/看涨成交量比率为0.87，结合大单数据，看涨期权总成交量（8946张）略高于看跌期权（6340张），显示多空交投活跃但方向性并不极端。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2. <strong>值得关注的未平仓合约</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在2026年5月15日到期的合约中，<strong>行权价120.0美元、100.0美元和95.0美元的看涨期权未平仓合约数分别高达30,770张、16,035张和14,826张。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/74e067d311dfee1c2868a6c5db3a4bfa\" tg-width=\"1755\" tg-height=\"717\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这些高持仓量区域可能成为未来股价上行的重要阻力或支撑位。</p><h3 id=\"id_397935552\" style=\"text-align: left;\">大单交易</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>整体方向与结构：</strong>市场呈现“短线博弈、远月多空对冲”的格局。短线交易者押注波动或下跌，而长线资金则在进行看多布局的同时，买入保护性看跌期权以对冲风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>关键大单解析：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1. 短线偏空押注：熊市看跌组合</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：同时买入2026年5月15日到期、行权价107.00美元和108.00美元的看跌期权各2,545张，净支出约<strong>213万美元</strong>。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：当前股价（113.01美元）高于行权价，此为买入虚值看跌期权，纯粹押注股价在短期内（至5月15日）下跌或波动率飙升。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT$  </a></strong></p><p><strong>‌‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/91f5c724b0345c1f68a76c531a326439\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"777\"/></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>2. 长期看多彰显信心：深度实值看涨期权</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：买入1,800张2026年7月17日到期、行权价65.00美元的看涨期权，成交额<strong>864万美元</strong>。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：当前股价远高于行权价，此为深度实值看涨期权，通常被视为利用杠杆进行长期股票替代或强烈看多的信号，而非短期投机。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/80735a908bfa46ed86ea4e4bf90da8df\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>3. 远月对冲与上行博弈</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：分别买入价值<strong>353.75万美元</strong>的2027年3月到期、行权价110美元看跌期权（虚值），以及<strong>213.6万美元</strong>的2026年9月到期、行权价130美元看涨期权（虚值）。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：进一步印证远月期权的多空对冲布局——前者用于长期保护或看跌，后者博取上行突破。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT\" title=\"$INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT$  </a></strong></p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ae16ec1feea19e67ba3795a72018872\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"738\"/></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>4. 近月方向博弈</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>交易构成</strong>：近月（2026年5月8日到期）买入3,646张行权价112美元的看涨期权，成交额<strong>117万美元</strong>。</p></li><li><p><strong>策略解读</strong>：当前股价接近行权价，属于对短期方向或事件性波动的直接押注，与前述看跌组合共同加剧短线不确定性。</p><p><strong>‌<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$</a></strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL\" title=\"$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">  </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/56e740382d8474786bfb25a5e529bde9\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"371\"/></p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_970378957\">总体策略参考</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">鉴于隐含波动率处于历史极值，期权价格昂贵，单纯卖出深度虚值（如行权价140美元以上的Call或90美元以下的Put）期权被行权的概率虽低，但需警惕波动率回落带来的合约价值衰减风险，且需承担高额保证金。对于风险承受能力有限的投资者，可以考虑构建价差策略（如熊市看涨价差或牛市看跌价差）来限制最大亏损，同时从高波动率环境中获利。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f75603b44290c7d476d289df7f8b04ca","relate_stocks":{"ARMW":"Roundhill ARM WeeklyPay ETF","INTW":"2倍做多INTC ETF-GraniteShares","LINT":"Direxion Daily INTC Bull 2X ETF","INTC":"英特尔","ARMG":"2倍做多ARM ETF- Leverage Shares","ARMU":"2倍做多ARM ETF-T-REX"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162488996","content_text":"英特尔收盘报113.01美元，涨4.49%。近期英特尔期权市场出现显著的大单交易活动，呈现出短线博弈与长期布局并存的复杂格局。机构交易者构建了价值213万美元的熊市看跌期权组合，押注短期内股价波动或下行。同时，有交易者斥资864万美元买入远月深度实值看涨期权，彰显了对公司长期价值的坚定信心，并辅以超远月看跌期权进行对冲，反映出市场在剧烈波动预期下的多空分歧与谨慎心态。期权指标分析1. 隐含波动率与成交量分析当前英特尔的隐含波动率（IV）高达85.86%，其IV百分位达到100.00%的极值，表明期权定价处于历史最高位，市场预期未来股价将出现剧烈波动。看跌/看涨成交量比率为0.87，结合大单数据，看涨期权总成交量（8946张）略高于看跌期权（6340张），显示多空交投活跃但方向性并不极端。2. 值得关注的未平仓合约在2026年5月15日到期的合约中，行权价120.0美元、100.0美元和95.0美元的看涨期权未平仓合约数分别高达30,770张、16,035张和14,826张。这些高持仓量区域可能成为未来股价上行的重要阻力或支撑位。大单交易整体方向与结构：市场呈现“短线博弈、远月多空对冲”的格局。短线交易者押注波动或下跌，而长线资金则在进行看多布局的同时，买入保护性看跌期权以对冲风险。关键大单解析：1. 短线偏空押注：熊市看跌组合交易构成：同时买入2026年5月15日到期、行权价107.00美元和108.00美元的看跌期权各2,545张，净支出约213万美元。策略解读：当前股价（113.01美元）高于行权价，此为买入虚值看跌期权，纯粹押注股价在短期内（至5月15日）下跌或波动率飙升。‌$INTC 20260515 107.0 PUT$  ‌‌$INTC 20260515 108.0 PUT$  2. 长期看多彰显信心：深度实值看涨期权交易构成：买入1,800张2026年7月17日到期、行权价65.00美元的看涨期权，成交额864万美元。策略解读：当前股价远高于行权价，此为深度实值看涨期权，通常被视为利用杠杆进行长期股票替代或强烈看多的信号，而非短期投机。‌$INTC 20260717 65.0 CALL$  3. 远月对冲与上行博弈交易构成：分别买入价值353.75万美元的2027年3月到期、行权价110美元看跌期权（虚值），以及213.6万美元的2026年9月到期、行权价130美元看涨期权（虚值）。策略解读：进一步印证远月期权的多空对冲布局——前者用于长期保护或看跌，后者博取上行突破。‌$INTC 20270319 110.0 PUT$  ‌$INTC 20260918 130.0 CALL$  4. 近月方向博弈交易构成：近月（2026年5月8日到期）买入3,646张行权价112美元的看涨期权，成交额117万美元。策略解读：当前股价接近行权价，属于对短期方向或事件性波动的直接押注，与前述看跌组合共同加剧短线不确定性。‌$INTC 20260508 112.0 CALL$  总体策略参考鉴于隐含波动率处于历史极值，期权价格昂贵，单纯卖出深度虚值（如行权价140美元以上的Call或90美元以下的Put）期权被行权的概率虽低，但需警惕波动率回落带来的合约价值衰减风险，且需承担高额保证金。对于风险承受能力有限的投资者，可以考虑构建价差策略（如熊市看涨价差或牛市看跌价差）来限制最大亏损，同时从高波动率环境中获利。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARMW":0.6,"INTC":2,"INTW":0.6,"ARMU":0.6,"ARMG":0.6,"LINT":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561498855494672,"gmtCreate":1778116382755,"gmtModify":1778116385240,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"你们有完没完？差不多得了","listText":"你们有完没完？差不多得了","text":"你们有完没完？差不多得了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561498855494672","repostId":"1124503554","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1124503554","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1778116171,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124503554?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-07 09:09","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"美媒称伊朗将在周四回应美方提议，伊朗议长斥责其为“虚假媒体叙事”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124503554","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"双方正在朝着达成一项结束战争的协议而努力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>据CNN：<strong>一位消息人士表示，伊朗预计将于周四向调解人提交关于美国提出的结束战争提议的答复。伊朗一直在对美国提出的提议进行审查，消息人士称，双方正在朝着达成一项结束战争的协议而努力。</strong></p><p>据伊朗Press TV报道，<strong>伊朗议会议长驳斥了近期有关德黑兰与华盛顿之间即将达成某种协议的报道，称这些报道具有误导性，是源自美国的、屡见不鲜的虚假媒体叙事的一部分。</strong>周四，伊朗议会议长卡利巴夫在社交媒体上发文，提及了美国媒体Axios关于此类安排的报道，并讽刺地将其称为“Operation Fauxios”（假装行动）。他指出，此类报道的流传反映了美国媒体报道中的一种惯常模式，尤其是那些援引匿名消息来源的报道——伊朗官员曾多次驳斥这些报道毫无根据，而事后事实也总是证明这些报道是错误的。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美媒称伊朗将在周四回应美方提议，伊朗议长斥责其为“虚假媒体叙事”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美媒称伊朗将在周四回应美方提议，伊朗议长斥责其为“虚假媒体叙事”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-07 09:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>据CNN：<strong>一位消息人士表示，伊朗预计将于周四向调解人提交关于美国提出的结束战争提议的答复。伊朗一直在对美国提出的提议进行审查，消息人士称，双方正在朝着达成一项结束战争的协议而努力。</strong></p><p>据伊朗Press TV报道，<strong>伊朗议会议长驳斥了近期有关德黑兰与华盛顿之间即将达成某种协议的报道，称这些报道具有误导性，是源自美国的、屡见不鲜的虚假媒体叙事的一部分。</strong>周四，伊朗议会议长卡利巴夫在社交媒体上发文，提及了美国媒体Axios关于此类安排的报道，并讽刺地将其称为“Operation Fauxios”（假装行动）。他指出，此类报道的流传反映了美国媒体报道中的一种惯常模式，尤其是那些援引匿名消息来源的报道——伊朗官员曾多次驳斥这些报道毫无根据，而事后事实也总是证明这些报道是错误的。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f667d36a087f6144733e56bd1e3f0377","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124503554","content_text":"据CNN：一位消息人士表示，伊朗预计将于周四向调解人提交关于美国提出的结束战争提议的答复。伊朗一直在对美国提出的提议进行审查，消息人士称，双方正在朝着达成一项结束战争的协议而努力。据伊朗Press TV报道，伊朗议会议长驳斥了近期有关德黑兰与华盛顿之间即将达成某种协议的报道，称这些报道具有误导性，是源自美国的、屡见不鲜的虚假媒体叙事的一部分。周四，伊朗议会议长卡利巴夫在社交媒体上发文，提及了美国媒体Axios关于此类安排的报道，并讽刺地将其称为“Operation Fauxios”（假装行动）。他指出，此类报道的流传反映了美国媒体报道中的一种惯常模式，尤其是那些援引匿名消息来源的报道——伊朗官员曾多次驳斥这些报道毫无根据，而事后事实也总是证明这些报道是错误的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":497768183529472,"gmtCreate":1762548288584,"gmtModify":1762548290486,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a> 漂亮的锤子线","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a> 漂亮的锤子线","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 漂亮的锤子线","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/497768183529472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":474872991289368,"gmtCreate":1756956665643,"gmtModify":1756956666724,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd9eceb7443a57b30ccfc4f705b931","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"少说两句吧","listText":"少说两句吧","text":"少说两句吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/474872991289368","repostId":"2564349768","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2564349768","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1756956147,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2564349768?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-04 11:22","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"张忆东：7月以来港股利空已接近尾声，A股和港股都将走出超级长牛","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2564349768","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"兴证证券张忆东认为，7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声，包括资金面趋紧和互联网补贴大战等影响正在改善。中长期来看，中国股市将走中国特色金融发展之路，A股和港股都有望走出超级长牛。这得益于中国经济的高质量发展、社会财富向股市的配置、AI科技等领域的突破以及全球资金的回流潜力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>兴证证券张忆东认为，7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声，包括资金面趋紧和互联网补贴大战等影响正在改善。中长期来看，中国股市将走中国特色金融发展之路，A股和港股都有望走出超级长牛。这得益于中国经济的高质量发展、社会财富向股市的配置、AI科技等领域的突破以及全球资金的回流潜力。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1741814835\" style=\"text-align: left;\">核心观点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>一、回顾：2024年以来港股和A股交相辉映，2025年7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声。</strong>从2024年中国权益资产启动反转性行情至今，港股和A股总体上各自精彩、交相辉映, 共同提升了中国股市的吸引力。2025年6月底到8月底，A股持续上涨，在全球表现优异；同期港股表现相对乏力，主要受其自身资金面趋紧、互联网补贴大战等因素影响。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>港股资金面：2025年6月底以来持续收紧的香港流动性环境，将有望改善。</strong>当前，港币汇率已脱离7.85弱方保证区间，金管局已经不再需要进一步回笼流动性。美元SOFR的利差和港币HIBOR隔夜利率截至2025年8月28日已经降至0.36%，处于正常的历史区间范围，后续，香港的流动性进一步大幅紧缩的概率较小。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>港股基本面：2025年7月以来港股盈利预测持续下修，但中报业绩期之后将迎转机。</strong>恒生指数2025年EPS同比增速的一致预期从2025年7月初的6.7%下修到8月31日的2.35%，外卖市场竞争加剧、互联网的利润预期下调是主因。截至2025年8月29日，港股通成分股净利润原材料、医疗保健等行业盈利预期大幅上调，更关键是，阿里巴巴中报业绩会之后，即时零售内卷对相关互联网巨头业绩预测和估值的双杀冲击将得以缓解。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>二、中长期展望：走中国特色金融发展之路，A股和港股都将走出超级长牛。</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>中国股市长牛的预期伴随着A股和港股的走强而不断深化</strong>，<strong>长牛逻辑的关键在于走中国特色金融发展之路，中国股市和中国经济及政策预期形成正反馈，顺应中国经济高质量发展和中国式现代化的战略机遇期。</strong>有形之手有意愿更有能力“持续稳定和活跃资本市场”，强调“必须统筹好有效市场和有为政府的关系，形成既‘放得活’又‘管得住’的经济秩序，从而避免2014-2015年疯牛重演，实现震荡向上的长牛。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>中国社会财富从避险资产向股市的配置大潮方兴未艾，这是中期行情的关键变量。</strong>政策大力引导中长期资金入市，社保、保险、理财等积极增持股市，存款搬家初见端倪。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">中国<strong>AI科技、军工科技、创新药、机器人等呈现整体性突破，全面提振了股市信心。</strong>AI科技浪潮将持续引领国产算力链、半导体，赋能港股互联网、机器人、WEB3。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>随着中国股市赚钱效应的持续，全球资金回流港股和A股的潜力巨大：1）</strong>历史上美元指数和恒生指数呈现明显的负相关性。考虑到特朗普政府对美联储独立性的干预，特朗普任期内保持弱美元政策导向的概率大，有利于外资回流港股和A股。<strong>2）</strong>2025年9月份一旦美联储如期降息，四季度美元将走弱，当前港股的做空压力将转为逼空动力。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>中国政策面的中长期影响更趋正面：“反内卷”、“四中全会”、“十五五规划”等有助于中国经济高质量发展，对流动性环境、风险偏好有正面影响。</strong>中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届四中全会，此次会议定调“十五五”期间要“确保基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展”。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>三、9月份行情展望：港股补涨动力已积蓄，震荡向上的慢牛行情有望继续展开</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>港股补涨动力将来自恒生科技的重估以及全球资金的配置需求。1）港股补涨的动力，年内将来自于以互联网为代表的恒生科技指数权重股补涨。</strong>从历史维度来看，截至8月29日，恒生科技预测市盈率为20.3倍，处于2020年7月以来29.9%分位数。<strong>2）港股补涨的动力，中期主要来自于基本面改善之后全球资金的配置需求。</strong>全球股市来看，港股恒生指数PE-TTM为12.3倍，仍是全球洼地，明显低于美国标普500指数27.4倍；风险溢价角度，恒生指数相对10年期中国国债利率的风险溢价高达6.4%，远高于美股-0.64%、日股3.38%、欧股3.35%的风险溢价水平。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>行情节奏上，港股9月份依然可能有震荡风险，但大方向是向上。</strong>1）9月份港股可能在议息会议前后跟随海外股市震荡，但是，牛市中的震荡是买入好资产的良机。警惕美股9月份出现“利多出尽”后的调整，或者，美联储超预期没有降息。2）9月初之后，A股情绪可能短期拖累港股。有形之手保持股市稳定、防范疯牛的动机以及A股7、8月份快速上涨之后的短期获利回吐压力，或导致9月A股行情震荡蓄势。3）历史上看，A股牛市阶段的震荡调整，港股不一定跟随，反而可能是你方唱罢我登场。从2005年-2007年、2014年-2015年以及2016年-2018年这三轮A股牛市中的9个震荡调整阶段，港股跟随调整的仅有4次，但在震荡调整阶段，恒生指数均跑赢上证指数。4）卖空占比过高的港股有望迎来外资空头平仓进而增持。美联储四季度大概率要降息，为给美国政府的高债务杠杆率解困，特朗普甚至不惜频频干预美联储独立性。9月份开始，降息和弱美元叠加美股高估值，港股性价比强于美股。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_1874793998\" style=\"text-align: left;\">报告正文</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>标题引用</strong>：<strong>自古逢秋悲寂寥，我言秋日胜春朝。晴空一鹤排云上，便引诗情到碧霄<em>——刘禹锡《秋词二首·其一》</em></strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一、回顾：2024年以来港股和A股交相辉映，7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（一）2024年中国权益资产启动反转性行情至今，港股和A股各自精彩、交相辉映</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从2024年中国权益资产启动反转性行情至今，港股和A股总体上各自精彩、交相辉映, 共同提升了中国股市的吸引力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>回顾去年至今的行情节奏，2024年1季度港股行情相对A股是率先见底反转。</strong>当时港股的卖空金额占比高达30%的历史极端水平，我们基于对中国经济新旧动能切换和宏观政策调控的深刻理解，明确指出海外投资者对中国房地产风险及中国经济过度悲观，发布报告《港股的春天》、战略性看多港股。“9.24行情”之前，A股的表现明显落后于港股；“9.24”行情期间，A股和港股携手向上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>经过2024年四季度的震荡巩固，今年1月份开始港股率先走强，前5个月，港股表现明显强于A股。</strong>不论是一季度的互联网代表的科技行情，还是二季度新消费和创新药行情都很精彩，同时，港股绩优股、价值股也较A股相对强势，AH股溢价指数持续收窄截止到6月底达到120左右，创近年的新低。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2025年6月底至今，A股持续上涨，在全球表现优异。同期港股表现相对乏力，主要受其自身资金面趋紧、互联网补贴大战等因素影响。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d76a135107c2ba799203066194045a5\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"391\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（二）2025年7月以来，制约港股的不利因素影响接近尾声</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1. 港股资金面：2025年6月底以来持续收紧的香港流动性环境，将有望改善</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025年4月份特朗普政府实施所谓“对等关税”政策后，美国遭遇“股债汇”三杀，港币兑美元汇率触及7.75的强方保证。在联系汇率制度的约束下，香港金管局被动注入大量港币流动性，香港银行体系的结余资金从2025年4月底440亿港元上升到2025年5月8日的1740亿港元，流动性的骤然宽裕导致HIBOR利率下降至接近0的水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">由于港币和美元之间的利差扩大至4个百分点左右的水平，卖出港币和买入美元的套息交易蜂拥而至，叠加美元反弹，进而，导致港币持续贬值，终于在2025年6月24日触及弱方保证7.85。于是，与2025年5月初的操作相反，金管局从2025年6月27日开始回收过剩流动性，由于回笼速度较慢，前期流动性依然维持过剩状态，HIBOR继续处于低位。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025年8月以来，银行系统的结余已经降至比2025年4月底略高的水平，这推动了HIBOR利率从0附近快速上行；叠加2025年8月22日Jackson Hole会议之后，美联储9月降息预期抬升，进一步触发了套息交易的集中平仓，增加了市场对港币的资金需求，HIBOR利率飙升至4%附近。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>当前，港币汇率已脱离7.85弱方保证区间，金管局已经不再需要进一步回笼流动性。美元SOFR的利差和港币HIBOR隔夜利率截至2025年8月28日已经降至0.36%，处于正常的历史区间范围。后续，香港的流动性进一步大幅紧缩的概率较小。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3bc939255d02ac516b3002503da7cb3\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2. 港股基本面：2025年7月以来港股盈利预测持续下修，但中报业绩期之后将迎转机</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>恒生指数2025年EPS同比增速的一致预期（根据彭博数据），从2025年7月初的6.7%下修到2025年8月31日的2.35%。外卖市场的竞争加剧、港股第一大权重板块互联网的利润预期下调，是恒生指数EPS下调的主要原因。</strong>范围更广的港股通成分股盈利预期变化不大，截至2025年8月29日，港股通成分股净利润原材料、医疗保健等行业盈利预期大幅上调。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伴随反内卷的政策导向的深入，监管当局对互联网巨头们进行约谈、2025年10月15日起施行新修订《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》对平台内卷进行限制，即时零售的内卷有望改善。更关键是，阿里巴巴中报业绩会之后，即时零售内卷对相关互联网巨头业绩预测和估值的双杀冲击将得以缓解。我们预判，四季度开始，互联网基本面的叙事逻辑将从“外卖内卷”转向“AI赋能”，业绩预期有望改善。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2dbd0d2b75118b77b3f375d05cde8d8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"468\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">二、中长期展望：走中国特色金融发展之路，A股和港股都将走出超级长牛</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（一）中国股市长牛的预期伴随着A股和港股的走强而不断深化，长牛逻辑的关键在于走中国特色金融发展之路</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>中国股市和中国经济及政策预期形成正反馈，顺应中国经济高质量发展和中国式现代化的战略机遇期。</strong>有形之手有意愿更有能力“持续稳定和活跃资本市场”，强调“必须统筹好有效市场和有为政府的关系，形成既‘放得活’又‘管得住’的经济秩序，从而避免2014-2015年疯牛重演，实现震荡向上的长牛。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2023年中央金融工作会议，首次系统阐述“坚定不移走中国特色金融发展之路”。“中国特色金融发展之路，与西方金融模式有本质区别”。“坚持以人民为中心的价值取向，坚持把金融服务实体经济作为根本宗旨”。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2024年9月26日召开的中共中央政治局会议提出“努力提振资本市场”，2024年12月9日以及2025年2月28日召开的中共中央政治局会议均强调“稳住股市”。2025年4月25日召开的中共中央政治局会议强调“持续稳定和活跃资本市场”。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前A股走强，进一步强化了中国股市长牛的逻辑，包括，科技创新的发展、中国经济高质量发展和中国式现代化所带来的战略机遇期、中国社会财富从避险资产向权益资产再配置的逻辑。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">南向资金大幅流入港股，表面原因是港股行情的赚钱效应提升，港股市场生态环境发生改变，优质企业赴港上市，为港股市场注入新鲜血液，提升了市场活力，吸引了南向资金的流入。<strong>更深层的原因是中央金融工作会议之后，国家积极赋能香港、巩固和提升香港国际金融中心地位，香港由治及兴。</strong></p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/210e2923a4a1a5bffb085ce9a2ca9f68\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"658\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（二）中国社会财富从避险资产向股市的配置大潮方兴未艾，这是中期行情的关键变量</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2024年以来政策大力引导中长期资金入市，社保、保险、理财等积极增持股市，存款搬家初见端倪。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">中央汇金等机构持续增持ETF。根据兴证策略团队统计，汇金重点持仓的ETF自2023年7月以来至2025年7月累计流入资金超过1万亿元。同期，货币当局对其他金融性公司债权从1363亿元提升至2025年6月末的9810亿元。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">政策上调保险资金配置权益类资产比例的上限，险资加速增配权益资产，股票持仓占比升至近年来新高。截至今年H1，保险资金持有的股票+基金占比升至13.5%，处于近年来的较高水平。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在存款、银行理财、债券等各类利率趋势下行的“资产荒”背景下，居民存款配置权益资产的概率较高。7月，非银存款单月新增2.14万亿元，创2015年有数据记录以来的第二高水平，仅次于今年2月的2.83万亿元。历史上看，新增非银存款与全A走势相关性较强，反映居民资金的入市行为。截至2025年7月“居民存款与股票总市值之比”这一指标仍在1.7的历史高位。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3127afc8776763b9114c6df900ee833b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"649\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0efc6cef79d36c44ad467dc9d2f240d2\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"820\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（三）中国AI科技、军工科技、创新药、机器人等呈现整体性突破，全面提振了股市信心，AI科技浪潮将持续引领国产算力链、半导体，赋能港股互联网、机器人、WEB3 </p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">中国AI科技、军工科技、创新药、机器人等呈现整体性突破，全面提振了股市信心，并催生了诸多行业性的机会。1）随着DeepSeek带动AI平权推进，叠加国 家政策层面高度支持，国内AI商业化进程有望持续提速，带动行情从上游扩散至 中下游。2）去年末我国六代机亮相、3月我国军舰绕澳大利亚环行展示，到二季 度的台海联合演练、歼10CE在印巴冲突中大放光彩，中国武器持续展现全球竞 争力。地缘冲突背景下国家安全牵引长期军贸需求，中国在国际军贸中的市场空间有望进一步打开。3）中国创新药已经实现从量变到质变的转化，逐渐从“跟跑 者”到“引领者”。中国创新药具备高效率、低成本的开发优势，在热门技术赛道 如ADC、双抗、细胞治疗等具备竞争优势，有望持续展现行业竞争力。4）2025 年人形机器人产业浪潮已至，中国供应链完整，高水平技工和工程师规模占优，大规模量产能力强。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9122cc97a6a3cba9074c0adfcc6c1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"755\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>AI科技浪潮将持续引领国产算力链、半导体，赋能港股互联网、机器人、WEB3。</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">全球AI模型厂商进入集中发力期，以ChatGPT为代表的AI应用以前所未有的速度侵占用户时长，ChatGPT截至2025年7月26日已达3.39亿日活跃用户，接近谷歌搜索的1/5。<strong>海外龙头二季报业绩印证AI应用商业化加速潜力，</strong>美股AI龙头公司二季报中AI的贡献正在加大。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>国内AI在国内大模型迎来更多突破，以及芯片瓶颈松动的环境下，AI商业化进程有望提速。</strong>DeepSeek-V3.1正式发布继续推进下一代高性能硬件和软件优化，尤其是，未来基于DeepSeek模型有望更多应用国产算力芯片，这将进一步推动国内AI产业链发展。腾讯、腾讯音乐和快手等互联网公司的中报业绩预期，AI赋能互联网已经拉开序幕。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b4629d686ce3ef58459cc0633f9a1e3\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"504\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（四）随着中国股市赚钱效应的持续，全球资金回流港股和A股的潜力巨大</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>历史上美元指数和恒生指数呈现明显的负相关性。考虑到特朗普政府对美联储独立性的干预，特朗普任期内保持弱美元政策导向的概率大，有利于外资回流港股和A股。</strong>为了配合美国的高财政赤字、高政府债务杠杆率，特朗普不惜频频干预美联储独立性、呼吁降息和弱美元。美联储主席鲍威尔在Jackson Hole会议发言，已经暗示降息以呵护经济下行的必要性：就业市场反映出下行风险，基准情况下关税对价格的影响是一次性的，工资上涨和长期通胀预期上行的风险较小，货币政策处于限制性区域，基准前景和风险平衡的变动可能需要调整政策立场。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/654060d9bc2dbbcf0db375bae74853f0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"621\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2025年9月份一旦美联储如期降息，四季度美元将走弱，当前港股的做空压力将转为逼空动力。</strong>从国际中介持股占比来反映港股市场的外资动向，从4年前的50%以上，持续下降到当前的43%左右，开始出现企稳迹象。中国股市赚钱效应的持续性有望提升，从而增强外资回流的信心。此前，外资对中国经济过度悲观，错把美国式大放水作为刺激经济的标准答案，而低估了“中国固本培元式”高质量发展。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d8ce6f8292011b7a88d24da1f529520\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"391\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（五）中国政策面的中长期影响更趋正面：“反内卷”、“四中全会”、“十五五规划”等有助于中国经济高质量发展，对流动性环境、风险偏好有正面影响</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，主要议程是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。按照先前经验来看，今年9 月的政治局会议可能将讨论党中央关于制定“十五五”规划建议的初稿，并提请10月份召开的二十届四中全会审议。此次会议定调“十五五”时期是“夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期”，在“十五五”期间要“确保基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>党中央部署综合整治“内卷式”竞争。</strong>这是解决当前经济发展矛盾的关键举措，是深化经济体制改革的重要保障，也是推动企业实现创新发展、向价值链中高端攀升、不断增强发展韧性的有效路径。不同时代的“供给侧”改革，股市赋能的侧重点不同。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1998年国企改革的侧重点是去产能、解决债务问题、建立现代企业制度，释放企业活力，为新一轮经济增长奠定基础。资本市场赋能体现在，通过IPO及国有股配售、并购重组，帮助国企建立现代企业制度改革，调整国有资产布局，盘活了国有资产，国企改革成为行情重要主线。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本轮“反内卷”聚焦释放创新活力，助力高质量发展。资本市场赋能将更多体现在引导资源向有利于推动创新、提高效率的方向配置。2024年9月26日中共中央政治局会议“支持上市公司并购重组”。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三、9月份行情展望：港股补涨动力已积蓄，震荡向上的慢牛行情有望继续展开</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（一）港股补涨动力将来自恒生科技的重估以及全球资金的配置需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1. 港股补涨的动力，年内将来自于以互联网为代表的恒生科技指数权重股补涨</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>港股补涨的动力，年内将来自于以互联网为代表的恒生科技指数权重股补涨，而不是A、H股同时上市的股票。</strong>从历史维度来看，截至2025年8月29日，港股恒生指数预测市盈率目前11.7倍，处于2015年以来59.40%分位数；恒生科技预测市盈率为20.3倍，仅处于2020年7月以来的29.9%分位数水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a61cdbf8d7682557ccd8b72d91d02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"405\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2. </strong>港股补涨的动力，中期主要来自于基本面改善之后全球资金的配置需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">全球股市来看，港股恒生指数PE-TTM为12.3倍，明显低于美国标普500指数27.4倍、日本日经225指数20倍、欧元区斯托克50指数16.2倍；风险溢价角度，恒生指数相对10年期中国国债利率的风险溢价高达6.4%，相对10年期美债利率的风险溢价在3.8%左右，远高于美股的-0.64%的风险溢价水平，也高于日股3.38%以及欧股3.35%的风险溢价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6c86432ba700decf3eae1aba41bb0d3\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"573\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（二）行情节奏上，港股9月份依然可能有震荡风险，但大方向是向上</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>9月份港股可能在议息会议前后跟随海外股市震荡，但是，牛市中的震荡是买入好资产的良机。</strong>美股当前估值高、VIX过低，警惕美股2025年9月份出现“利多出尽”后的调整，或者，美联储超预期没有降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>不过，美联储四季度大概率要降息，卖空占比过高的港股有望迎来外资空头平仓进而增持。</strong>为给美国政府的高债务杠杆率解困，特朗普甚至不惜频频干预美联储独立性。9月份开始，降息和弱美元叠加美股高估值，港股性价比强于美股。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60580ba290b8531b73ff5c7e3a83b29\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"382\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>9月初之后，A股情绪可能短期拖累港股。</strong>有形之手保持股市稳定、防范疯牛的动机以及A股2025年7、8月份快速上涨之后的短期获利回吐压力，或导致2025年9月A股行情震荡蓄势。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>历史上看，A股牛市阶段的震荡调整，港股不一定跟随，反而可能是你方唱罢我登场。</strong>从2005年-2007年、2014年-2015年以及2016年-2018年这三轮A股牛市中的9个震荡调整阶段，港股跟随调整的仅有4次，但在震荡调整阶段，恒生指数均跑赢上证指数。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5ca139aa6eda747d9b13df414dcbed1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"882\"/></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>张忆东：7月以来港股利空已接近尾声，A股和港股都将走出超级长牛</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n张忆东：7月以来港股利空已接近尾声，A股和港股都将走出超级长牛\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-04 11:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754903><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>兴证证券张忆东认为，7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声，包括资金面趋紧和互联网补贴大战等影响正在改善。中长期来看，中国股市将走中国特色金融发展之路，A股和港股都有望走出超级长牛。这得益于中国经济的高质量发展、社会财富向股市的配置、AI科技等领域的突破以及全球资金的回流潜力。核心观点一、回顾：2024年以来港股和A股交相辉映，2025年7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声。从2024年中国权益资产启动...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754903\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15c88658aa2ff55014f3e675fdee2a3d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSCEI":"国企指数","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754903","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2564349768","content_text":"兴证证券张忆东认为，7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声，包括资金面趋紧和互联网补贴大战等影响正在改善。中长期来看，中国股市将走中国特色金融发展之路，A股和港股都有望走出超级长牛。这得益于中国经济的高质量发展、社会财富向股市的配置、AI科技等领域的突破以及全球资金的回流潜力。核心观点一、回顾：2024年以来港股和A股交相辉映，2025年7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声。从2024年中国权益资产启动反转性行情至今，港股和A股总体上各自精彩、交相辉映, 共同提升了中国股市的吸引力。2025年6月底到8月底，A股持续上涨，在全球表现优异；同期港股表现相对乏力，主要受其自身资金面趋紧、互联网补贴大战等因素影响。港股资金面：2025年6月底以来持续收紧的香港流动性环境，将有望改善。当前，港币汇率已脱离7.85弱方保证区间，金管局已经不再需要进一步回笼流动性。美元SOFR的利差和港币HIBOR隔夜利率截至2025年8月28日已经降至0.36%，处于正常的历史区间范围，后续，香港的流动性进一步大幅紧缩的概率较小。港股基本面：2025年7月以来港股盈利预测持续下修，但中报业绩期之后将迎转机。恒生指数2025年EPS同比增速的一致预期从2025年7月初的6.7%下修到8月31日的2.35%，外卖市场竞争加剧、互联网的利润预期下调是主因。截至2025年8月29日，港股通成分股净利润原材料、医疗保健等行业盈利预期大幅上调，更关键是，阿里巴巴中报业绩会之后，即时零售内卷对相关互联网巨头业绩预测和估值的双杀冲击将得以缓解。二、中长期展望：走中国特色金融发展之路，A股和港股都将走出超级长牛。中国股市长牛的预期伴随着A股和港股的走强而不断深化，长牛逻辑的关键在于走中国特色金融发展之路，中国股市和中国经济及政策预期形成正反馈，顺应中国经济高质量发展和中国式现代化的战略机遇期。有形之手有意愿更有能力“持续稳定和活跃资本市场”，强调“必须统筹好有效市场和有为政府的关系，形成既‘放得活’又‘管得住’的经济秩序，从而避免2014-2015年疯牛重演，实现震荡向上的长牛。中国社会财富从避险资产向股市的配置大潮方兴未艾，这是中期行情的关键变量。政策大力引导中长期资金入市，社保、保险、理财等积极增持股市，存款搬家初见端倪。中国AI科技、军工科技、创新药、机器人等呈现整体性突破，全面提振了股市信心。AI科技浪潮将持续引领国产算力链、半导体，赋能港股互联网、机器人、WEB3。随着中国股市赚钱效应的持续，全球资金回流港股和A股的潜力巨大：1）历史上美元指数和恒生指数呈现明显的负相关性。考虑到特朗普政府对美联储独立性的干预，特朗普任期内保持弱美元政策导向的概率大，有利于外资回流港股和A股。2）2025年9月份一旦美联储如期降息，四季度美元将走弱，当前港股的做空压力将转为逼空动力。中国政策面的中长期影响更趋正面：“反内卷”、“四中全会”、“十五五规划”等有助于中国经济高质量发展，对流动性环境、风险偏好有正面影响。中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届四中全会，此次会议定调“十五五”期间要“确保基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展”。三、9月份行情展望：港股补涨动力已积蓄，震荡向上的慢牛行情有望继续展开港股补涨动力将来自恒生科技的重估以及全球资金的配置需求。1）港股补涨的动力，年内将来自于以互联网为代表的恒生科技指数权重股补涨。从历史维度来看，截至8月29日，恒生科技预测市盈率为20.3倍，处于2020年7月以来29.9%分位数。2）港股补涨的动力，中期主要来自于基本面改善之后全球资金的配置需求。全球股市来看，港股恒生指数PE-TTM为12.3倍，仍是全球洼地，明显低于美国标普500指数27.4倍；风险溢价角度，恒生指数相对10年期中国国债利率的风险溢价高达6.4%，远高于美股-0.64%、日股3.38%、欧股3.35%的风险溢价水平。行情节奏上，港股9月份依然可能有震荡风险，但大方向是向上。1）9月份港股可能在议息会议前后跟随海外股市震荡，但是，牛市中的震荡是买入好资产的良机。警惕美股9月份出现“利多出尽”后的调整，或者，美联储超预期没有降息。2）9月初之后，A股情绪可能短期拖累港股。有形之手保持股市稳定、防范疯牛的动机以及A股7、8月份快速上涨之后的短期获利回吐压力，或导致9月A股行情震荡蓄势。3）历史上看，A股牛市阶段的震荡调整，港股不一定跟随，反而可能是你方唱罢我登场。从2005年-2007年、2014年-2015年以及2016年-2018年这三轮A股牛市中的9个震荡调整阶段，港股跟随调整的仅有4次，但在震荡调整阶段，恒生指数均跑赢上证指数。4）卖空占比过高的港股有望迎来外资空头平仓进而增持。美联储四季度大概率要降息，为给美国政府的高债务杠杆率解困，特朗普甚至不惜频频干预美联储独立性。9月份开始，降息和弱美元叠加美股高估值，港股性价比强于美股。报告正文标题引用：自古逢秋悲寂寥，我言秋日胜春朝。晴空一鹤排云上，便引诗情到碧霄——刘禹锡《秋词二首·其一》一、回顾：2024年以来港股和A股交相辉映，7月以来制约港股行情的利空接近尾声（一）2024年中国权益资产启动反转性行情至今，港股和A股各自精彩、交相辉映从2024年中国权益资产启动反转性行情至今，港股和A股总体上各自精彩、交相辉映, 共同提升了中国股市的吸引力。回顾去年至今的行情节奏，2024年1季度港股行情相对A股是率先见底反转。当时港股的卖空金额占比高达30%的历史极端水平，我们基于对中国经济新旧动能切换和宏观政策调控的深刻理解，明确指出海外投资者对中国房地产风险及中国经济过度悲观，发布报告《港股的春天》、战略性看多港股。“9.24行情”之前，A股的表现明显落后于港股；“9.24”行情期间，A股和港股携手向上。经过2024年四季度的震荡巩固，今年1月份开始港股率先走强，前5个月，港股表现明显强于A股。不论是一季度的互联网代表的科技行情，还是二季度新消费和创新药行情都很精彩，同时，港股绩优股、价值股也较A股相对强势，AH股溢价指数持续收窄截止到6月底达到120左右，创近年的新低。2025年6月底至今，A股持续上涨，在全球表现优异。同期港股表现相对乏力，主要受其自身资金面趋紧、互联网补贴大战等因素影响。（二）2025年7月以来，制约港股的不利因素影响接近尾声1. 港股资金面：2025年6月底以来持续收紧的香港流动性环境，将有望改善2025年4月份特朗普政府实施所谓“对等关税”政策后，美国遭遇“股债汇”三杀，港币兑美元汇率触及7.75的强方保证。在联系汇率制度的约束下，香港金管局被动注入大量港币流动性，香港银行体系的结余资金从2025年4月底440亿港元上升到2025年5月8日的1740亿港元，流动性的骤然宽裕导致HIBOR利率下降至接近0的水平。由于港币和美元之间的利差扩大至4个百分点左右的水平，卖出港币和买入美元的套息交易蜂拥而至，叠加美元反弹，进而，导致港币持续贬值，终于在2025年6月24日触及弱方保证7.85。于是，与2025年5月初的操作相反，金管局从2025年6月27日开始回收过剩流动性，由于回笼速度较慢，前期流动性依然维持过剩状态，HIBOR继续处于低位。2025年8月以来，银行系统的结余已经降至比2025年4月底略高的水平，这推动了HIBOR利率从0附近快速上行；叠加2025年8月22日Jackson Hole会议之后，美联储9月降息预期抬升，进一步触发了套息交易的集中平仓，增加了市场对港币的资金需求，HIBOR利率飙升至4%附近。当前，港币汇率已脱离7.85弱方保证区间，金管局已经不再需要进一步回笼流动性。美元SOFR的利差和港币HIBOR隔夜利率截至2025年8月28日已经降至0.36%，处于正常的历史区间范围。后续，香港的流动性进一步大幅紧缩的概率较小。2. 港股基本面：2025年7月以来港股盈利预测持续下修，但中报业绩期之后将迎转机恒生指数2025年EPS同比增速的一致预期（根据彭博数据），从2025年7月初的6.7%下修到2025年8月31日的2.35%。外卖市场的竞争加剧、港股第一大权重板块互联网的利润预期下调，是恒生指数EPS下调的主要原因。范围更广的港股通成分股盈利预期变化不大，截至2025年8月29日，港股通成分股净利润原材料、医疗保健等行业盈利预期大幅上调。伴随反内卷的政策导向的深入，监管当局对互联网巨头们进行约谈、2025年10月15日起施行新修订《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》对平台内卷进行限制，即时零售的内卷有望改善。更关键是，阿里巴巴中报业绩会之后，即时零售内卷对相关互联网巨头业绩预测和估值的双杀冲击将得以缓解。我们预判，四季度开始，互联网基本面的叙事逻辑将从“外卖内卷”转向“AI赋能”，业绩预期有望改善。二、中长期展望：走中国特色金融发展之路，A股和港股都将走出超级长牛（一）中国股市长牛的预期伴随着A股和港股的走强而不断深化，长牛逻辑的关键在于走中国特色金融发展之路中国股市和中国经济及政策预期形成正反馈，顺应中国经济高质量发展和中国式现代化的战略机遇期。有形之手有意愿更有能力“持续稳定和活跃资本市场”，强调“必须统筹好有效市场和有为政府的关系，形成既‘放得活’又‘管得住’的经济秩序，从而避免2014-2015年疯牛重演，实现震荡向上的长牛。2023年中央金融工作会议，首次系统阐述“坚定不移走中国特色金融发展之路”。“中国特色金融发展之路，与西方金融模式有本质区别”。“坚持以人民为中心的价值取向，坚持把金融服务实体经济作为根本宗旨”。2024年9月26日召开的中共中央政治局会议提出“努力提振资本市场”，2024年12月9日以及2025年2月28日召开的中共中央政治局会议均强调“稳住股市”。2025年4月25日召开的中共中央政治局会议强调“持续稳定和活跃资本市场”。当前A股走强，进一步强化了中国股市长牛的逻辑，包括，科技创新的发展、中国经济高质量发展和中国式现代化所带来的战略机遇期、中国社会财富从避险资产向权益资产再配置的逻辑。南向资金大幅流入港股，表面原因是港股行情的赚钱效应提升，港股市场生态环境发生改变，优质企业赴港上市，为港股市场注入新鲜血液，提升了市场活力，吸引了南向资金的流入。更深层的原因是中央金融工作会议之后，国家积极赋能香港、巩固和提升香港国际金融中心地位，香港由治及兴。（二）中国社会财富从避险资产向股市的配置大潮方兴未艾，这是中期行情的关键变量2024年以来政策大力引导中长期资金入市，社保、保险、理财等积极增持股市，存款搬家初见端倪。中央汇金等机构持续增持ETF。根据兴证策略团队统计，汇金重点持仓的ETF自2023年7月以来至2025年7月累计流入资金超过1万亿元。同期，货币当局对其他金融性公司债权从1363亿元提升至2025年6月末的9810亿元。政策上调保险资金配置权益类资产比例的上限，险资加速增配权益资产，股票持仓占比升至近年来新高。截至今年H1，保险资金持有的股票+基金占比升至13.5%，处于近年来的较高水平。在存款、银行理财、债券等各类利率趋势下行的“资产荒”背景下，居民存款配置权益资产的概率较高。7月，非银存款单月新增2.14万亿元，创2015年有数据记录以来的第二高水平，仅次于今年2月的2.83万亿元。历史上看，新增非银存款与全A走势相关性较强，反映居民资金的入市行为。截至2025年7月“居民存款与股票总市值之比”这一指标仍在1.7的历史高位。（三）中国AI科技、军工科技、创新药、机器人等呈现整体性突破，全面提振了股市信心，AI科技浪潮将持续引领国产算力链、半导体，赋能港股互联网、机器人、WEB3 中国AI科技、军工科技、创新药、机器人等呈现整体性突破，全面提振了股市信心，并催生了诸多行业性的机会。1）随着DeepSeek带动AI平权推进，叠加国 家政策层面高度支持，国内AI商业化进程有望持续提速，带动行情从上游扩散至 中下游。2）去年末我国六代机亮相、3月我国军舰绕澳大利亚环行展示，到二季 度的台海联合演练、歼10CE在印巴冲突中大放光彩，中国武器持续展现全球竞 争力。地缘冲突背景下国家安全牵引长期军贸需求，中国在国际军贸中的市场空间有望进一步打开。3）中国创新药已经实现从量变到质变的转化，逐渐从“跟跑 者”到“引领者”。中国创新药具备高效率、低成本的开发优势，在热门技术赛道 如ADC、双抗、细胞治疗等具备竞争优势，有望持续展现行业竞争力。4）2025 年人形机器人产业浪潮已至，中国供应链完整，高水平技工和工程师规模占优，大规模量产能力强。AI科技浪潮将持续引领国产算力链、半导体，赋能港股互联网、机器人、WEB3。全球AI模型厂商进入集中发力期，以ChatGPT为代表的AI应用以前所未有的速度侵占用户时长，ChatGPT截至2025年7月26日已达3.39亿日活跃用户，接近谷歌搜索的1/5。海外龙头二季报业绩印证AI应用商业化加速潜力，美股AI龙头公司二季报中AI的贡献正在加大。国内AI在国内大模型迎来更多突破，以及芯片瓶颈松动的环境下，AI商业化进程有望提速。DeepSeek-V3.1正式发布继续推进下一代高性能硬件和软件优化，尤其是，未来基于DeepSeek模型有望更多应用国产算力芯片，这将进一步推动国内AI产业链发展。腾讯、腾讯音乐和快手等互联网公司的中报业绩预期，AI赋能互联网已经拉开序幕。（四）随着中国股市赚钱效应的持续，全球资金回流港股和A股的潜力巨大历史上美元指数和恒生指数呈现明显的负相关性。考虑到特朗普政府对美联储独立性的干预，特朗普任期内保持弱美元政策导向的概率大，有利于外资回流港股和A股。为了配合美国的高财政赤字、高政府债务杠杆率，特朗普不惜频频干预美联储独立性、呼吁降息和弱美元。美联储主席鲍威尔在Jackson Hole会议发言，已经暗示降息以呵护经济下行的必要性：就业市场反映出下行风险，基准情况下关税对价格的影响是一次性的，工资上涨和长期通胀预期上行的风险较小，货币政策处于限制性区域，基准前景和风险平衡的变动可能需要调整政策立场。2025年9月份一旦美联储如期降息，四季度美元将走弱，当前港股的做空压力将转为逼空动力。从国际中介持股占比来反映港股市场的外资动向，从4年前的50%以上，持续下降到当前的43%左右，开始出现企稳迹象。中国股市赚钱效应的持续性有望提升，从而增强外资回流的信心。此前，外资对中国经济过度悲观，错把美国式大放水作为刺激经济的标准答案，而低估了“中国固本培元式”高质量发展。（五）中国政策面的中长期影响更趋正面：“反内卷”、“四中全会”、“十五五规划”等有助于中国经济高质量发展，对流动性环境、风险偏好有正面影响中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，主要议程是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。按照先前经验来看，今年9 月的政治局会议可能将讨论党中央关于制定“十五五”规划建议的初稿，并提请10月份召开的二十届四中全会审议。此次会议定调“十五五”时期是“夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期”，在“十五五”期间要“确保基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展”。党中央部署综合整治“内卷式”竞争。这是解决当前经济发展矛盾的关键举措，是深化经济体制改革的重要保障，也是推动企业实现创新发展、向价值链中高端攀升、不断增强发展韧性的有效路径。不同时代的“供给侧”改革，股市赋能的侧重点不同。1998年国企改革的侧重点是去产能、解决债务问题、建立现代企业制度，释放企业活力，为新一轮经济增长奠定基础。资本市场赋能体现在，通过IPO及国有股配售、并购重组，帮助国企建立现代企业制度改革，调整国有资产布局，盘活了国有资产，国企改革成为行情重要主线。本轮“反内卷”聚焦释放创新活力，助力高质量发展。资本市场赋能将更多体现在引导资源向有利于推动创新、提高效率的方向配置。2024年9月26日中共中央政治局会议“支持上市公司并购重组”。三、9月份行情展望：港股补涨动力已积蓄，震荡向上的慢牛行情有望继续展开（一）港股补涨动力将来自恒生科技的重估以及全球资金的配置需求。1. 港股补涨的动力，年内将来自于以互联网为代表的恒生科技指数权重股补涨港股补涨的动力，年内将来自于以互联网为代表的恒生科技指数权重股补涨，而不是A、H股同时上市的股票。从历史维度来看，截至2025年8月29日，港股恒生指数预测市盈率目前11.7倍，处于2015年以来59.40%分位数；恒生科技预测市盈率为20.3倍，仅处于2020年7月以来的29.9%分位数水平。2. 港股补涨的动力，中期主要来自于基本面改善之后全球资金的配置需求。全球股市来看，港股恒生指数PE-TTM为12.3倍，明显低于美国标普500指数27.4倍、日本日经225指数20倍、欧元区斯托克50指数16.2倍；风险溢价角度，恒生指数相对10年期中国国债利率的风险溢价高达6.4%，相对10年期美债利率的风险溢价在3.8%左右，远高于美股的-0.64%的风险溢价水平，也高于日股3.38%以及欧股3.35%的风险溢价。（二）行情节奏上，港股9月份依然可能有震荡风险，但大方向是向上9月份港股可能在议息会议前后跟随海外股市震荡，但是，牛市中的震荡是买入好资产的良机。美股当前估值高、VIX过低，警惕美股2025年9月份出现“利多出尽”后的调整，或者，美联储超预期没有降息。不过，美联储四季度大概率要降息，卖空占比过高的港股有望迎来外资空头平仓进而增持。为给美国政府的高债务杠杆率解困，特朗普甚至不惜频频干预美联储独立性。9月份开始，降息和弱美元叠加美股高估值，港股性价比强于美股。9月初之后，A股情绪可能短期拖累港股。有形之手保持股市稳定、防范疯牛的动机以及A股2025年7、8月份快速上涨之后的短期获利回吐压力，或导致2025年9月A股行情震荡蓄势。历史上看，A股牛市阶段的震荡调整，港股不一定跟随，反而可能是你方唱罢我登场。从2005年-2007年、2014年-2015年以及2016年-2018年这三轮A股牛市中的9个震荡调整阶段，港股跟随调整的仅有4次，但在震荡调整阶段，恒生指数均跑赢上证指数。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":1.1,"399006":1.1,"HSCEI":1.1,"HSI":1.1,"000001.SH":1.1,"HSTECH":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}