不动心的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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2主题

0勋章

2021-08-16

$蓝城兄弟(BLCT)$白天卖力的推会员，晚上十米高台跳，这啥剧本

2021-07-27

$好未来(TAL)$看谁还敢不认真学习

2021-07-27

$蓝城兄弟(BLCT)$为什么啊！

2021-05-12

$蓝城兄弟(BLCT)$腾讯京东不考虑收购这家公司补齐短板吗？

2021-04-26

$蓝城兄弟(BLCT)$我想知道关注这只股票的是不是都是自己人

2021-01-28

$蓝城兄弟(BLCT)$难道我们不应该在GMS上得到点启发吗？

2020-03-10

怎么说的那么在理呢！

如果美股崩了会发生啥？

2020-02-26

希望如此

@姗姗UL:$韩国ETF-iShares MSCI(EWY)$ 可以考虑中期多xlu 空xlk 空石油，个人建议，ewy估计可以到50，

2020-02-14

$蔚来(NIO)$很好奇，如果能有大融资为啥还要发债

2020-02-10

$蔚来(NIO)$如果能谈到战略投资就不着急可转债了吧，到财报难到狂跌吗

2020-01-31

$蔚来(NIO)$汽车行业

2019-11-30

$流利说(LAIX)$没有流动性的股票不能惹

2019-11-05

2019.11.05 复盘笔记 by 不动心

长期看跌fit,没想到赶上了被收购。结果损失惨重，幸亏及时调转枪头，才没有让亏损扩大。再碰到有收购传闻的公司，我一定躲着走。接下来倒是很想下注未来的私有化。

2019.11.05 复盘笔记 by 不动心

2019-11-01

$Fitbit Inc.(FIT)$我想知道的全在这里

2019-10-01

我被强平了[流泪]

2019-09-25

$蔚来(NIO)$ 看到电话会什么都没说就放心了

2019-09-24

$蔚来(NIO)$有多少机构出货啊！

2019-09-12

$流利说(LAIX)$到底是甩不掉腾讯

2019-07-17

$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$谁知道这货什么时候解禁

2019-07-02

$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$ 今天盘后是否能体验到诡异？

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[笑哭]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":193802446,"gmtCreate":1620778296185,"gmtModify":1620778296185,"author":{"id":"3510980291633872","authorId":"3510980291633872","name":"不动心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e70626bba851d289dbec6dc4e4513656","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLCT\">$蓝城兄弟(BLCT)$</a>腾讯京东不考虑收购这家公司补齐短板吗？","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLCT\">$蓝城兄弟(BLCT)$</a>难道我们不应该在GMS上得到点启发吗？","text":"$蓝城兄弟(BLCT)$难道我们不应该在GMS上得到点启发吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318817162","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2953,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3483098821036046","authorId":"3483098821036046","name":"John8866","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16a5fc469fa44e34f1f6159a8b3f3a19","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"拉上去给主力抬轿子吗？这里做空的没多少","text":"拉上去给主力抬轿子吗？这里做空的没多少","html":"拉上去给主力抬轿子吗？这里做空的没多少"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":988903788,"gmtCreate":1583854706744,"gmtModify":1704351332326,"author":{"id":"3510980291633872","authorId":"3510980291633872","name":"不动心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e70626bba851d289dbec6dc4e4513656","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"怎么说的那么在理呢！","listText":"怎么说的那么在理呢！","text":"怎么说的那么在理呢！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/988903788","repostId":"1156589235","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156589235","pubTimestamp":1583816041,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156589235?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-10 12:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"如果美股崩了会发生啥？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156589235","media":"九边","summary":"这两天美股跌成了狗，后台收到很多消息，说这段时间大家都在聊美股，可是小白却完全听不懂他们在说啥，让博主用通俗语言解释下美股如果继续跌下去，发生像2008年那样的事，会对这个世界产生什么影响，会对我们的","content":"<p><span>这两天美股跌成了狗，后台收到很多消息，说这段时间大家都在聊美股，可是小白却完全听不懂他们在说啥，让博主用通俗语言解释下美股如果继续跌下去，发生像2008年那样的事，会对这个世界产生什么影响，会对我们的生活产生什么影响。</span></p>\n<p><span>这个话题既简单又复杂，简单是因为这种事发生过很多次了，每次其实都大同小异，博主看了不少金融史，所以讲起来也不太难。复杂是因为讲清细节性的东西非常难。有点像雪崩，每次其实都差不多，但是每次又都不太一样，而且很难知道它啥时候发生啥时候结束。</span></p>\n<p><span>当然了，预测雪崩时间也不是不可能，只是普通人干不了这事，大家知道那个达利欧吧，就是桥水基金的大佬，他对这事非常有心得，他研究了过去几百年里每次大萧条的数据，成了这方面的专家，他们的基金会平时偶尔跑不赢大盘，但是一到美股崩了的时候，就会爆发出可怕的战斗力，别人赔30%，他们赚20%。下图就是达利欧</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfbfe40e70cd8379eac21818047c89ee\"></p>\n<p><span>至于为啥达利欧能预测准，纽约联储主席盖特纳提到过这事，他说达利欧在2007年预测会发生金融危机，就去美联储和政府去跟大佬们搞汇报，盖特纳说他分析的思路并不复杂，主要是对比当前的数据和历史上的危机前数据，他发现2008年美国债务情况跟1982年差不多，就判断要危机了。</span></p>\n<p><span>去年这个桥水又押注美股暴跌，因为美国现在的债务问题跟2008和1982很相似，而且特意押注3月份暴跌，现在3月份果然跌了，而且不是小跌，是大跌，桥水笑了，其他人哭了。</span></p>\n<p><span>趁着这个机会，咱们今天就给金融小白写篇文章，忘了谁说的来着，成年人不炒股也要懂点股票，懂了股票慢慢就对市场有了点了解。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>1、</span></b><b><span><b>如果股市崩了，钱都跑哪去了？</b></span></b></p>\n<p><span>首先要说一件事，美股跟咱们的A股完全两码事，一般来说，</span><span><b>美股对标咱们的房地产</b></span><span>，美国人的养老金和富人的绝大部分财富都在美国股市里，这也是为啥特朗普成天吹嘘他搞定了股市，因为美国人其实并不太关心谁当总统（去投票选总统的人数不到选民人口的一半），股市的起伏才会影响到他们每一个人，美国人是真心关心这事。</span></p>\n<p><span>我们经常在电视上听说，美国暴跌，蒸发上万亿，这里就有不少小伙伴想不明白，好好的钱没了，肯定是被人赚了啊，那到底是谁赚了？</span></p>\n<p><span>其实不是，有一部分是真被人赚了，大部分蒸发的钱真没了。</span></p>\n<p><span>举个例子大家就知道了，大部分道理都是相通的。</span></p>\n<p><span>比如你们小区有一百套房子，每套一百万，小区的盘子就是一个亿。</span></p>\n<p><span>突然有一天，有人买了一套这个小区的房子，花了两百万，小区其他住户听说后，非常高兴，觉得自己小区的房子这么值钱，进一步认为自己的房子也值这个价，这种情况下，小区整体升值成了两个亿，200万 x 100套&nbsp;= 2亿。</span></p>\n<p><span>股票也是这样的，一支股票市值两个亿，其实不是把这个股票都卖掉值两个亿，而是通过最近成交的那部分，来估算整个股票的价格，跟你们小区房价一模一样。</span></p>\n<p><span>股市崩了，股票大跌，有点像你们小区最近卖了一套房，只卖了50万，你们整个小区市值只剩下了5000万一样，小区住户平白无故从两百万身家跌倒了50万，内心多少有点崩溃，事实上这种事这两年全国人民都在体验，绝大部分城市房价都在阴跌，房主们的身价普遍在缩水。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>估值从虚空中来，回到虚空里去了。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>所以美股如果暴跌，并不是真的钱没了，有些钱本来就没存在过，就跟你们小区房价的估值似的。</span></p>\n<p><span>除非你们小区房价上涨过程中买房的那些人，以250万，300万接盘的那些人，小区房价跌到50万，他们是真赔了。</span></p>\n<p><span>其他人就跟小区住户一样，感觉上赔了，可能没啥变化，涨跌都是一场梦。同理，美股涨了近十年，市值膨胀了那么多，并不是真的往里边塞了那么多钱，可能只投入了总市值的1/10。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0680c32f55ad35234fa2e22a03d7f55\"></p>\n<p><span>这也是为啥前段时间某思聪身价估值30亿，转眼就欠别人好几个亿，那个估值本身就有很强的迷惑性。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>2、</span></b><b><span><b>暴跌有啥影响</b></span></b></p>\n<p><span>说到这里，大家可能又纳闷了，那股市大跌也没啥嘛。</span></p>\n<p><span>也不是，我们刚才说了，你们小区的房子升值，是有人花钱高价在你们小区买过房子，所以整个小区估值上升了。</span></p>\n<p><span>美股升值了这么多年，是大量的钱不断投入到股市，一点点把股市给推上去。这些钱哪来的呢？</span></p>\n<p><span>有的是海外投资，比如我国很多人去美国炒股，日本也把不少钱投入了美股，这就属于外资；</span></p>\n<p><span>还有美国的共同基金，也就是美国那些普通老百姓每家都出点钱，凑成大股资金；</span></p>\n<p><span>还有养老金，这是美国老百姓的命根子，美国老百姓全指望着这玩意，他们叫“401K”，他们有个APP能看到这玩意，美国老百姓这段时间天天看着那玩意哀嚎。</span></p>\n<p><span>此外还有美国富人们才能加入的大型基金，比如索罗斯的量子基金，就是富人才能加入，富人们每人出一笔，让索罗斯他们去赚钱。</span></p>\n<p><span>这些钱推动着股市一直往上爬。</span></p>\n<p><span>而且这玩意本身是个心理游戏，美股一直在涨，大家都很高兴，甚至怀疑它会一直涨下去，甚至从银行贷款去炒股，到最后银行的钱成了主力。</span></p>\n<p><span>这种借钱炒股有个专业说法叫“配资”，如果你不配资，股市跌了就跌了，你不会欠钱。但是如果你借钱炒股，跌的惨的时候，你很可能欠一屁股钱。而且这种杠杆本身也是利润的来源和罪恶的深渊。</span></p>\n<p><span>比如你有一万块，银行借给你9万，此时你是9倍杠杆。股市涨10%，对你来说那就是100%的涨幅。问题是如果股市跌掉10%，你的本金也没了。如果跌幅超过10%，你欠银行了。</span></p>\n<p><span>说到这里也看出来了，</span><span><b>杠杆越高，风险越大</b></span><span>。大家知道2008年倒闭的那个雷曼兄弟吧，他们多高的杠杆呢？日常24倍，高峰的时候30倍，多恐怖。大家可以想象下你们做买卖，借来的钱是本金的30倍是一种什么体验？</span></p>\n<p><span>到了去年，美股又出现了杠杆高到离谱的情况，桥水的达利欧天天都在说美股快要完蛋了，不仅说美股要完蛋，还说欧洲股市也得完蛋，所以他们公司一直在做空美股，引发了大家阵阵嘲笑。2019年大家都赚了，除了他们家。</span></p>\n<p><span>今年美股果然出现暴跌，多多少少跟高杠杆有关，这种高位情况下，稍微有点风吹草动，容易引发大逃杀，这次疫情就是那根草。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>所以这次暴跌不是黑天鹅，而是灰犀牛，天天在那里溜达，却没人注意到，或者选择性注意不到，借钱太多会导致还不上这事大家都可以忽略了。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>如果股市一直涨，大家账户上的资产一直在涨，大家都有种欣欣向荣的感觉，吃喝玩乐买买买。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>大家都愿意消费，你的消费就是别人的收入，别人也跟着收入增加。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>你花的多别人赚的也多，整个社会的经济也会跟着进入一轮繁荣。</span></p>\n<p><span>但是股市不会一直涨下去，大家借钱炒股玩击鼓传花，最终也会导致从银行贷不到款而没法继续支撑下去，等股市稍微出现下跌，大家都争先恐后地跑路，生怕砸自己手里，会把自己手里的股票都卖掉，大家都在卖，会导致股市进一步下跌。如果不理解，就想想鹤岗的房子，大家都不想持有，都在卖，现在4万一套房。</span></p>\n<p><span>如果股市下跌，那些高位接盘的人会很惨，其他人账户上的钱也在缩水。有点像你们小区那个200万买房的人赔惨了，其他住户也承担了一些损失。正如这两天就发生了这事。</span></p>\n<p><span>财富缩水会对整个社会造成巨大的影响，你想想啊，你账户上有几千万资产是啥心态？账户上只剩下了零头是啥心态？</span></p>\n<p><span>这种心态的变化，会蔓延到社会的各个角落，大家不是欠一屁股债，就是财富大幅缩水，也舍不得花钱了，甚至有人赔钱太多，需要出售房产什么，也不投资开新公司了，甚至很多公司因为投资人破产而关停，从业人员失业。</span></p>\n<p><span>这样整个社会都被拖下了水，每次美股暴跌后，房地产和市场一片萧条，也是这个原因。</span></p>\n<p><span>甚至会蔓延到大宗商品，比如原油和生猪什么的，也不难理解，大家都觉得将来日子不会好过，都节衣缩食，也就用不了那么多石油，吃不了那么多猪肉，可不就跌了嘛。当然了，这次原油暴跌不只是这个原因，还跟沙特俄罗斯的恩怨有关。</span></p>\n<p><span>这种悲观情绪会蔓延，美股是世界股市的龙头，美国是世界的中央银行，美股的疲软会蔓延至其他国家，其他国家也会觉得有风险，陷入恐慌性抛售。</span></p>\n<p><span>比如你持有一些欧洲的股票，你本来不担心，但是你担心“别人担心”，然后你自己先抛了，其他人想法跟你差不多，大家一起抛。</span></p>\n<p><span>这也是为啥美股一出问题，其他市场基本没法幸免，甚至我大A股也跟着跌，不同的是美股是从一百层楼往下跳，我大A股一直在地下室蹦跶。</span></p>\n<p><span>如果跌的少还好，如果止不住一直跌，后果非常可怕。</span></p>\n<p><span>比如跌到最后，几乎所有人都缺钱，越是缺钱越啥都不买，还抛售资产，导致商品卖不出去，房价下跌。</span></p>\n<p><span>每次经济危机，基本都会出现房价和股价“双杀”。当然了，限于篇幅，咱们不可能再继续说一些更复杂的，比如期货，金融衍生品，国债什么的东西，这些都会受到美股的影响。</span></p>\n<p><span>这也是为啥美联储要下调利息，调低利息大家就可以继续低成本借钱接着玩了，防止彻底崩了。</span></p>\n<p><span>这还没完，由于美国老百姓家家都在暴跌中损失了一部分财富，心态的变化会导致支出变少，美国又是全世界最重要的消费国，也就不买其他国家生产的东西了，或者说买的少了，这种情况会导致其他国家的出口暴跌，比如2008年，美国房市股市一起跌，很快买我国的东西也变少了，我国出口也出现疲软。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684f7afc5b5f425c1d30a9d22b2314eb\"></p>\n<p><span>那段时间郎平有句话，说我国南方一周倒闭一千家小型制造公司，几千万人失业，无数人痛不欲生。那年我师兄毕业，985工科高材生都不太好找工作。</span></p>\n<p><span>这个背景下，我国出台了4万亿刺激计划，当时有个说法，说是这4万亿将会是压垮中国最后一根稻草，现在的小伙伴可能不知道，那个时代西方最重要的几个思潮就是中国随时要崩溃，并且还在搞有奖竞猜，猜测中国到底什么时候崩溃。</span></p>\n<p><span>那年也引发了中国最大的一波移民潮，普通老百姓浑浑噩噩也没啥感觉，只是觉得买卖不太好做。</span></p>\n<p><span>但是经常出国的那些人经常听别人说那些恐怖的预言，越想越怕，大量的京沪高产卖掉房产去了美国加拿大新西兰，现在大家去这些国家，很多出租车司机洗衣店超市的华人都是当初卖掉京沪房产去的。</span></p>\n<p><span>我以前项目组组长他哥就是那个时候移民了温哥华，这哥们当时在北京市有一个破院子的，现在在温哥华当洗衣店老板，如果没跑，现在总资产应该接近一个亿，现在在温哥华一个月能赚四五千左右。</span></p>\n<p><span>当然了，我们不是要评价别人的选择，就是说当时这种恐慌有多么的夸张。</span></p>\n<p><span>不过往往危机就是转机，很多企业以前是做袜子衣服等低端货的，那次危机后做不下去了，开始改行做别的，顺势完成了产业升级，中国的移动互联网时代也是从那个时候开始，现在的互联网格局就是从2008年左右形成的。中国现在的大富豪和中产阶级大部分也是从那个时候筑基的。</span></p>\n<p><span>2008高铁也没几趟，动车也不多，危机之后迅速就起来了。下图数据来源：统计局,观研天下整理（LMQ）</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2639d0858116d26c84c72338be8b7f6\"></p>\n<p><b><span>3、</span></b><b><span><b>如果发生了暴跌我们该怎么做？</b></span></b></p>\n<p><span>一般美国发生股灾（现在还不太算股灾，如果继续下去就是了），基本不用怀疑会把全世界拖下水，美国人的痛苦从来都会让全世界人民一起来承担。</span></p>\n<p><span>到时候麻烦会蔓延到全世界。</span></p>\n<p><span>全世界其他国家跟着它倒霉，比如美国公司要撤回资金到本土救援，其他国家一些项目就得停摆。美国购买别国东西少了，别的国家一些企业就会破产。为了应对危机，美国人会滥发货币，美元的信用越来越差，但是全世界其他国家被他们搞的一团糟。</span></p>\n<p><span>当然了，美国要祸水输出，咱们不一定能着它道，2008年都没事，现在相对来说策略要多得多。</span></p>\n<p><span>不过对于普通人来说就得准备好充沛的现金流，防止失业，而且可能有段时间工作还不太好找，尤其有房贷的，要留足空间，防止两三个月找不到工作。</span></p>\n<p><span>达利欧有个三原则，这个时候看就非常有用：</span></p>\n<p><span>第一，不要让债务增长超过收入，这个好理解，欠钱太多容易被压垮；</span></p>\n<p><span>第二，不要让收入增长超过生产率。</span></p>\n<p><span>这个比较费解，因为直观理解是“如果你值1万，老板要给你2万，你应该拒绝”，大家可能觉得是不是有病，竟然拒绝高工资，其实他说的就是工资超过产出，就容易被开除，而且萧条期间还不好找工作。</span></p>\n<p><span>这一点美国人比中国人感受明显，美国公司开除员工比较随意，所以特朗普那句“you’re fired”才那么时髦。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbba47b26acf7e05ae2d2788aabe631a\"></p>\n<p><span>美国人普遍怕裁员，尤其年龄大了。我以前聊过，美国的码农小伙伴会做一些咱们看来匪夷所思的事，比如他们有机会去当领导都会拒绝，因为领导技术含量低工资高，容易失业，而且失业后找不到工作。这个倒没瞎说，我以前是我们公司编程高手，所以才让我当讲师，现在我参与了几年管理，连最新的一些技术都不大能看懂了。</span></p>\n<p><span>反正吧，萧条期间尽量避免失业。</span></p>\n<p><span>第三，尽一切努力提高生产率。用我们的话说就是不断进步，提高能力，抗压抗摔。</span></p>\n<p><span>关于抄底，这段时间也是个热议问题，因为美股不是暴跌了嘛，把2019年涨的那部分已经全跌掉了，特朗普的政治资本基本已经跌光了：</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8e133d4d96171e7eb2cd7361444cf49\"></p>\n<p><span>不少人宠宠欲动，前几天在Quora上有个小伙伴直播抄底，也就是他对赌股票已经到了底部，加杠杆买股票（加杠杆就是借钱），准备大赚一大笔，一开始赚到了，不过上周又来了一次暴跌，他已经血本无归，本金没了还欠了不少债。</span></p>\n<p><span>所以抄底这事是个技术活，如果抄中了酸爽的不得了，可以少奋斗几年。但是如果抄不中，那就相当于砍刀下坠的时候你伸手接了一下，不但赚不到，手也没了。</span></p>\n<p><span>如果发生暴跌会跌到哪呢？</span></p>\n<p><span>巴菲特说股市应该低于GDP才正常，他要等到跌到GDP的80%再进去抄底。</span></p>\n<p><span>那美股现在是多少呢？40万亿左右，美国GDP是多少呢？20万亿，按照老巴的逻辑，意思是美国大盘还得跌掉一万多点，这可太吓人了，写文章的现在美股跌了2000点全球震惊，如果跌掉10000多点，妥妥的大号股灾加金融危机。</span></p>\n<p><span>特朗普现在应该很方，明显不想管疫情了，下图是他股市暴跌后发的推特，大意是：“去年美国流感死了37000，岁月静好，现在肺炎才死了22个，你们感受下”，感受啥啊感受，就是不想管呗。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bc9a1baee5c5d5ec9a00cc0ab077b7\"></p>\n<p><span>现在还不确认美股是否要一直跌下去，各个机构也都在猜，一些大型机构猜测是还要跌，不过大家一定要注意一件事，每次暴跌，总有个“霸王回马枪”：</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/936b0f634f373af9749195ca7057de76\"></p>\n<p><span>也就是上图的那个“否认”阶段，现在很可能就是那个阶段，这时候抄底非常容易被“断手”。而且大家注意下这个图，历史上几乎所有的泡沫和股市暴跌基本都长这个样，简直就是人性图谱。</span></p>\n<p><span>如果美股继续暴跌，大概率对于全球是一次浩劫，不过很扎心也很暖心的一件事是：</span><span><b>越是艰难时候，在大家都恐慌和绝望的时候，有人完成了逆势向上，困难对于他们来说反而是机会。</b></span><span>也正印证了之前反复说的那句话，不管你是悲观还是乐观，最终你都是对的。</span></p>\n<p><span>文末，总结几句：</span></p>\n<p><span>1、如果美股这样跌下去，肯定会把全世界拖下水；</span></p>\n<p><span>2、准备好充足的现金流，防患于未然；</span></p>\n<p><span>3、睁大眼睛，如果发生危机，也别太矫情，每次危机都是大部分人倒霉，一部分人的机遇，比如能捡到十年难得一见的便宜资产。</span></p>\n<p><span>4、文中反复提到的“桥水”达利欧非常非常看好中国，大家加油吧。</span></p>","source":"lsy1572663687086","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>如果美股崩了会发生啥？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n如果美股崩了会发生啥？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-10 12:54 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/354404><strong>九边</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>这两天美股跌成了狗，后台收到很多消息，说这段时间大家都在聊美股，可是小白却完全听不懂他们在说啥，让博主用通俗语言解释下美股如果继续跌下去，发生像2008年那样的事，会对这个世界产生什么影响，会对我们的生活产生什么影响。\n这个话题既简单又复杂，简单是因为这种事发生过很多次了，每次其实都大同小异，博主看了不少金融史，所以讲起来也不太难。复杂是因为讲清细节性的东西非常难。有点像雪崩，每次其实都差不多，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/354404\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ec3d0dd1f01bca738ed37472f7e72a","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/354404","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156589235","content_text":"这两天美股跌成了狗，后台收到很多消息，说这段时间大家都在聊美股，可是小白却完全听不懂他们在说啥，让博主用通俗语言解释下美股如果继续跌下去，发生像2008年那样的事，会对这个世界产生什么影响，会对我们的生活产生什么影响。\n这个话题既简单又复杂，简单是因为这种事发生过很多次了，每次其实都大同小异，博主看了不少金融史，所以讲起来也不太难。复杂是因为讲清细节性的东西非常难。有点像雪崩，每次其实都差不多，但是每次又都不太一样，而且很难知道它啥时候发生啥时候结束。\n当然了，预测雪崩时间也不是不可能，只是普通人干不了这事，大家知道那个达利欧吧，就是桥水基金的大佬，他对这事非常有心得，他研究了过去几百年里每次大萧条的数据，成了这方面的专家，他们的基金会平时偶尔跑不赢大盘，但是一到美股崩了的时候，就会爆发出可怕的战斗力，别人赔30%，他们赚20%。下图就是达利欧\n\n至于为啥达利欧能预测准，纽约联储主席盖特纳提到过这事，他说达利欧在2007年预测会发生金融危机，就去美联储和政府去跟大佬们搞汇报，盖特纳说他分析的思路并不复杂，主要是对比当前的数据和历史上的危机前数据，他发现2008年美国债务情况跟1982年差不多，就判断要危机了。\n去年这个桥水又押注美股暴跌，因为美国现在的债务问题跟2008和1982很相似，而且特意押注3月份暴跌，现在3月份果然跌了，而且不是小跌，是大跌，桥水笑了，其他人哭了。\n趁着这个机会，咱们今天就给金融小白写篇文章，忘了谁说的来着，成年人不炒股也要懂点股票，懂了股票慢慢就对市场有了点了解。\n1、如果股市崩了，钱都跑哪去了？\n首先要说一件事，美股跟咱们的A股完全两码事，一般来说，美股对标咱们的房地产，美国人的养老金和富人的绝大部分财富都在美国股市里，这也是为啥特朗普成天吹嘘他搞定了股市，因为美国人其实并不太关心谁当总统（去投票选总统的人数不到选民人口的一半），股市的起伏才会影响到他们每一个人，美国人是真心关心这事。\n我们经常在电视上听说，美国暴跌，蒸发上万亿，这里就有不少小伙伴想不明白，好好的钱没了，肯定是被人赚了啊，那到底是谁赚了？\n其实不是，有一部分是真被人赚了，大部分蒸发的钱真没了。\n举个例子大家就知道了，大部分道理都是相通的。\n比如你们小区有一百套房子，每套一百万，小区的盘子就是一个亿。\n突然有一天，有人买了一套这个小区的房子，花了两百万，小区其他住户听说后，非常高兴，觉得自己小区的房子这么值钱，进一步认为自己的房子也值这个价，这种情况下，小区整体升值成了两个亿，200万 x 100套 = 2亿。\n股票也是这样的，一支股票市值两个亿，其实不是把这个股票都卖掉值两个亿，而是通过最近成交的那部分，来估算整个股票的价格，跟你们小区房价一模一样。\n股市崩了，股票大跌，有点像你们小区最近卖了一套房，只卖了50万，你们整个小区市值只剩下了5000万一样，小区住户平白无故从两百万身家跌倒了50万，内心多少有点崩溃，事实上这种事这两年全国人民都在体验，绝大部分城市房价都在阴跌，房主们的身价普遍在缩水。\n估值从虚空中来，回到虚空里去了。\n所以美股如果暴跌，并不是真的钱没了，有些钱本来就没存在过，就跟你们小区房价的估值似的。\n除非你们小区房价上涨过程中买房的那些人，以250万，300万接盘的那些人，小区房价跌到50万，他们是真赔了。\n其他人就跟小区住户一样，感觉上赔了，可能没啥变化，涨跌都是一场梦。同理，美股涨了近十年，市值膨胀了那么多，并不是真的往里边塞了那么多钱，可能只投入了总市值的1/10。\n\n这也是为啥前段时间某思聪身价估值30亿，转眼就欠别人好几个亿，那个估值本身就有很强的迷惑性。\n2、暴跌有啥影响\n说到这里，大家可能又纳闷了，那股市大跌也没啥嘛。\n也不是，我们刚才说了，你们小区的房子升值，是有人花钱高价在你们小区买过房子，所以整个小区估值上升了。\n美股升值了这么多年，是大量的钱不断投入到股市，一点点把股市给推上去。这些钱哪来的呢？\n有的是海外投资，比如我国很多人去美国炒股，日本也把不少钱投入了美股，这就属于外资；\n还有美国的共同基金，也就是美国那些普通老百姓每家都出点钱，凑成大股资金；\n还有养老金，这是美国老百姓的命根子，美国老百姓全指望着这玩意，他们叫“401K”，他们有个APP能看到这玩意，美国老百姓这段时间天天看着那玩意哀嚎。\n此外还有美国富人们才能加入的大型基金，比如索罗斯的量子基金，就是富人才能加入，富人们每人出一笔，让索罗斯他们去赚钱。\n这些钱推动着股市一直往上爬。\n而且这玩意本身是个心理游戏，美股一直在涨，大家都很高兴，甚至怀疑它会一直涨下去，甚至从银行贷款去炒股，到最后银行的钱成了主力。\n这种借钱炒股有个专业说法叫“配资”，如果你不配资，股市跌了就跌了，你不会欠钱。但是如果你借钱炒股，跌的惨的时候，你很可能欠一屁股钱。而且这种杠杆本身也是利润的来源和罪恶的深渊。\n比如你有一万块，银行借给你9万，此时你是9倍杠杆。股市涨10%，对你来说那就是100%的涨幅。问题是如果股市跌掉10%，你的本金也没了。如果跌幅超过10%，你欠银行了。\n说到这里也看出来了，杠杆越高，风险越大。大家知道2008年倒闭的那个雷曼兄弟吧，他们多高的杠杆呢？日常24倍，高峰的时候30倍，多恐怖。大家可以想象下你们做买卖，借来的钱是本金的30倍是一种什么体验？\n到了去年，美股又出现了杠杆高到离谱的情况，桥水的达利欧天天都在说美股快要完蛋了，不仅说美股要完蛋，还说欧洲股市也得完蛋，所以他们公司一直在做空美股，引发了大家阵阵嘲笑。2019年大家都赚了，除了他们家。\n今年美股果然出现暴跌，多多少少跟高杠杆有关，这种高位情况下，稍微有点风吹草动，容易引发大逃杀，这次疫情就是那根草。\n所以这次暴跌不是黑天鹅，而是灰犀牛，天天在那里溜达，却没人注意到，或者选择性注意不到，借钱太多会导致还不上这事大家都可以忽略了。\n如果股市一直涨，大家账户上的资产一直在涨，大家都有种欣欣向荣的感觉，吃喝玩乐买买买。\n大家都愿意消费，你的消费就是别人的收入，别人也跟着收入增加。\n你花的多别人赚的也多，整个社会的经济也会跟着进入一轮繁荣。\n但是股市不会一直涨下去，大家借钱炒股玩击鼓传花，最终也会导致从银行贷不到款而没法继续支撑下去，等股市稍微出现下跌，大家都争先恐后地跑路，生怕砸自己手里，会把自己手里的股票都卖掉，大家都在卖，会导致股市进一步下跌。如果不理解，就想想鹤岗的房子，大家都不想持有，都在卖，现在4万一套房。\n如果股市下跌，那些高位接盘的人会很惨，其他人账户上的钱也在缩水。有点像你们小区那个200万买房的人赔惨了，其他住户也承担了一些损失。正如这两天就发生了这事。\n财富缩水会对整个社会造成巨大的影响，你想想啊，你账户上有几千万资产是啥心态？账户上只剩下了零头是啥心态？\n这种心态的变化，会蔓延到社会的各个角落，大家不是欠一屁股债，就是财富大幅缩水，也舍不得花钱了，甚至有人赔钱太多，需要出售房产什么，也不投资开新公司了，甚至很多公司因为投资人破产而关停，从业人员失业。\n这样整个社会都被拖下了水，每次美股暴跌后，房地产和市场一片萧条，也是这个原因。\n甚至会蔓延到大宗商品，比如原油和生猪什么的，也不难理解，大家都觉得将来日子不会好过，都节衣缩食，也就用不了那么多石油，吃不了那么多猪肉，可不就跌了嘛。当然了，这次原油暴跌不只是这个原因，还跟沙特俄罗斯的恩怨有关。\n这种悲观情绪会蔓延，美股是世界股市的龙头，美国是世界的中央银行，美股的疲软会蔓延至其他国家，其他国家也会觉得有风险，陷入恐慌性抛售。\n比如你持有一些欧洲的股票，你本来不担心，但是你担心“别人担心”，然后你自己先抛了，其他人想法跟你差不多，大家一起抛。\n这也是为啥美股一出问题，其他市场基本没法幸免，甚至我大A股也跟着跌，不同的是美股是从一百层楼往下跳，我大A股一直在地下室蹦跶。\n如果跌的少还好，如果止不住一直跌，后果非常可怕。\n比如跌到最后，几乎所有人都缺钱，越是缺钱越啥都不买，还抛售资产，导致商品卖不出去，房价下跌。\n每次经济危机，基本都会出现房价和股价“双杀”。当然了，限于篇幅，咱们不可能再继续说一些更复杂的，比如期货，金融衍生品，国债什么的东西，这些都会受到美股的影响。\n这也是为啥美联储要下调利息，调低利息大家就可以继续低成本借钱接着玩了，防止彻底崩了。\n这还没完，由于美国老百姓家家都在暴跌中损失了一部分财富，心态的变化会导致支出变少，美国又是全世界最重要的消费国，也就不买其他国家生产的东西了，或者说买的少了，这种情况会导致其他国家的出口暴跌，比如2008年，美国房市股市一起跌，很快买我国的东西也变少了，我国出口也出现疲软。\n\n那段时间郎平有句话，说我国南方一周倒闭一千家小型制造公司，几千万人失业，无数人痛不欲生。那年我师兄毕业，985工科高材生都不太好找工作。\n这个背景下，我国出台了4万亿刺激计划，当时有个说法，说是这4万亿将会是压垮中国最后一根稻草，现在的小伙伴可能不知道，那个时代西方最重要的几个思潮就是中国随时要崩溃，并且还在搞有奖竞猜，猜测中国到底什么时候崩溃。\n那年也引发了中国最大的一波移民潮，普通老百姓浑浑噩噩也没啥感觉，只是觉得买卖不太好做。\n但是经常出国的那些人经常听别人说那些恐怖的预言，越想越怕，大量的京沪高产卖掉房产去了美国加拿大新西兰，现在大家去这些国家，很多出租车司机洗衣店超市的华人都是当初卖掉京沪房产去的。\n我以前项目组组长他哥就是那个时候移民了温哥华，这哥们当时在北京市有一个破院子的，现在在温哥华当洗衣店老板，如果没跑，现在总资产应该接近一个亿，现在在温哥华一个月能赚四五千左右。\n当然了，我们不是要评价别人的选择，就是说当时这种恐慌有多么的夸张。\n不过往往危机就是转机，很多企业以前是做袜子衣服等低端货的，那次危机后做不下去了，开始改行做别的，顺势完成了产业升级，中国的移动互联网时代也是从那个时候开始，现在的互联网格局就是从2008年左右形成的。中国现在的大富豪和中产阶级大部分也是从那个时候筑基的。\n2008高铁也没几趟，动车也不多，危机之后迅速就起来了。下图数据来源：统计局,观研天下整理（LMQ）\n\n3、如果发生了暴跌我们该怎么做？\n一般美国发生股灾（现在还不太算股灾，如果继续下去就是了），基本不用怀疑会把全世界拖下水，美国人的痛苦从来都会让全世界人民一起来承担。\n到时候麻烦会蔓延到全世界。\n全世界其他国家跟着它倒霉，比如美国公司要撤回资金到本土救援，其他国家一些项目就得停摆。美国购买别国东西少了，别的国家一些企业就会破产。为了应对危机，美国人会滥发货币，美元的信用越来越差，但是全世界其他国家被他们搞的一团糟。\n当然了，美国要祸水输出，咱们不一定能着它道，2008年都没事，现在相对来说策略要多得多。\n不过对于普通人来说就得准备好充沛的现金流，防止失业，而且可能有段时间工作还不太好找，尤其有房贷的，要留足空间，防止两三个月找不到工作。\n达利欧有个三原则，这个时候看就非常有用：\n第一，不要让债务增长超过收入，这个好理解，欠钱太多容易被压垮；\n第二，不要让收入增长超过生产率。\n这个比较费解，因为直观理解是“如果你值1万，老板要给你2万，你应该拒绝”，大家可能觉得是不是有病，竟然拒绝高工资，其实他说的就是工资超过产出，就容易被开除，而且萧条期间还不好找工作。\n这一点美国人比中国人感受明显，美国公司开除员工比较随意，所以特朗普那句“you’re fired”才那么时髦。\n\n美国人普遍怕裁员，尤其年龄大了。我以前聊过，美国的码农小伙伴会做一些咱们看来匪夷所思的事，比如他们有机会去当领导都会拒绝，因为领导技术含量低工资高，容易失业，而且失业后找不到工作。这个倒没瞎说，我以前是我们公司编程高手，所以才让我当讲师，现在我参与了几年管理，连最新的一些技术都不大能看懂了。\n反正吧，萧条期间尽量避免失业。\n第三，尽一切努力提高生产率。用我们的话说就是不断进步，提高能力，抗压抗摔。\n关于抄底，这段时间也是个热议问题，因为美股不是暴跌了嘛，把2019年涨的那部分已经全跌掉了，特朗普的政治资本基本已经跌光了：\n\n不少人宠宠欲动，前几天在Quora上有个小伙伴直播抄底，也就是他对赌股票已经到了底部，加杠杆买股票（加杠杆就是借钱），准备大赚一大笔，一开始赚到了，不过上周又来了一次暴跌，他已经血本无归，本金没了还欠了不少债。\n所以抄底这事是个技术活，如果抄中了酸爽的不得了，可以少奋斗几年。但是如果抄不中，那就相当于砍刀下坠的时候你伸手接了一下，不但赚不到，手也没了。\n如果发生暴跌会跌到哪呢？\n巴菲特说股市应该低于GDP才正常，他要等到跌到GDP的80%再进去抄底。\n那美股现在是多少呢？40万亿左右，美国GDP是多少呢？20万亿，按照老巴的逻辑，意思是美国大盘还得跌掉一万多点，这可太吓人了，写文章的现在美股跌了2000点全球震惊，如果跌掉10000多点，妥妥的大号股灾加金融危机。\n特朗普现在应该很方，明显不想管疫情了，下图是他股市暴跌后发的推特，大意是：“去年美国流感死了37000，岁月静好，现在肺炎才死了22个，你们感受下”，感受啥啊感受，就是不想管呗。\n\n现在还不确认美股是否要一直跌下去，各个机构也都在猜，一些大型机构猜测是还要跌，不过大家一定要注意一件事，每次暴跌，总有个“霸王回马枪”：\n\n也就是上图的那个“否认”阶段，现在很可能就是那个阶段，这时候抄底非常容易被“断手”。而且大家注意下这个图，历史上几乎所有的泡沫和股市暴跌基本都长这个样，简直就是人性图谱。\n如果美股继续暴跌，大概率对于全球是一次浩劫，不过很扎心也很暖心的一件事是：越是艰难时候，在大家都恐慌和绝望的时候，有人完成了逆势向上，困难对于他们来说反而是机会。也正印证了之前反复说的那句话，不管你是悲观还是乐观，最终你都是对的。\n文末，总结几句：\n1、如果美股这样跌下去，肯定会把全世界拖下水；\n2、准备好充足的现金流，防患于未然；\n3、睁大眼睛，如果发生危机，也别太矫情，每次危机都是大部分人倒霉，一部分人的机遇，比如能捡到十年难得一见的便宜资产。\n4、文中反复提到的“桥水”达利欧非常非常看好中国，大家加油吧。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":989999599,"gmtCreate":1582668877011,"gmtModify":1704347243939,"author":{"id":"3510980291633872","authorId":"3510980291633872","name":"不动心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e70626bba851d289dbec6dc4e4513656","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"希望如此","listText":"希望如此","text":"希望如此","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/989999599","repostId":"906321715","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":906321715,"gmtCreate":1558619699737,"gmtModify":1704697027059,"author":{"id":"3509535440824324","authorId":"3509535440824324","name":"姗姗UL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d1c2ec75dd8e2c8dc6a4e84798c86ca","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$韩国ETF-iShares 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