王大饼的个人主页 - 老虎社区

王大饼

王大饼

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2020-04-22

$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$我怎么觉得接下来会大跌？之前抄底原油的巨头们，会疯狂卖其他股票来弥补损失。我说得对吗？黑人问号脸

2020-04-15

$跟谁学(GSX)$这破逼股票还有人买进？真特么奇怪了，这些人都是员工家人开的账号吗？

2020-01-08

一句话能说清楚的，非要写几千字混稿费？苹果跟红米荣耀完全不是个价位好吗，十倍的价格！特斯拉跟国产车价格差的多嘛，蔚来小鹏甚至比人家卖的贵，玩个屁

回忆苹果手机往事，看清国产特斯拉的未来

2019-09-30

$蔚来(NIO)$再跌一阵子，腾讯就要全资收购了，或者卖给腾讯投资的其他公司，ES8也会降价甩卖，最起码降到小鹏汽车或者比亚迪那个价。ES6会是彻头彻尾一款便宜的电动车。

2019-05-17

$百度(BIDU)$ 财报呢？

2019-05-16

$GoPro(GPRO)$ 看了下YouTube测评，全方位被大疆完爆，甚至连一个优点都找不出太惨啊，药丸

2019-05-04

$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$ 继续跌吧！加油

2019-05-04

$蔚来(NIO)$ 悲剧了，昨天卖的

2019-05-02

$新氧(SY)$ 哈哈哈，开心

2019-04-30

$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$ 开盘价23，现在才34，涨了50%而已，怕个屁啊。等到100%再出来发抖

2019-04-30

$中国铁塔(00788)$ 终于看到中国铁塔的塔了

2019-04-30

$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$ 涨50%不是问题啊

2019-04-23

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 明天财报数据如何？大家来猜猜看

2019-04-18

$Zoom(ZM)$是不是太高了

2019-04-03

$蔚来(NIO)$ 老虎这平台费用，是不是太特么贵了？

2019-03-29

$拼多多(PDD)$ 会跌倒16不

2019-03-13

$拼多多(PDD)$ 今天跌5个点，最多了吧。不能跌20个点吧

2019-03-12

$陌陌(MOMO)$ 好开心，37.5卖掉了[开心]

2019-03-06

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 再跌一点，我就把工资卡里面还剩的点钱全充进来

2019-03-02

$特斯拉(TSLA)$亏完今天晚上，我的model3就变成model2了

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11:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"回忆苹果手机往事，看清国产特斯拉的未来","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148711113","media":"许树泽树我直言","summary":"有幸见证这个时代，水大才能鱼大。","content":"<p><span>作者：许树泽</span></p><p>国产$<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(TSLA)$的中国速度让人吃惊，就好比考试的时候，还没打铃，但第一名已经早早交卷，后面没做完的同学们可要抓紧时间了。</p><p>考场上还有谁呢？当然不仅仅是中国的那些电动车新势力，马斯克想要征服的是全球整个汽车工业，是亨利福特以来所有的那些燃油车们。国产特斯拉就好比是1984年的那台上海大众桑塔纳，一个新的时代的大幕已经拉开了。</p><p>先说结论：<b>电动车还能继续降价。</b>虽然打过折已经便宜很多了，但是未来降价的幅度，按照一些工程师对成本的估算，顺利的话，一年后还有15%的空间。</p><p>这个结论有两个重要依据：电池成本持续下降和零配件快速国产化。</p><p><b>首先，电动车就是一台会跑的电池嘛，电池在车子的成本中占比是最高的。</b>电池想要提高性能那是非常难的，挑战的不是竞争对手，而是物理极限；但是换个思路，电池改善技术，降低成本，这个是完全可以有的。在过去的五年中，全球电池成本每年下降16%，如果保持这个速度，越往后就可以越便宜。</p><p><b>第二点，国产特斯拉的零配件，有30%已经国产化了，</b>按照计划，到夏天，有70%的零件可以国产，到了12月底，100%的零件可以全部国产。这两重暴击，可以继续大幅降低国产特斯拉的综合成本，就可以继续降价。</p><p>那么大家很自然有个疑问，据说这公司一直亏钱啊，亏钱还敢降价，它就不怕倒闭吗？！它如果倒闭了，车主们怎么办呢？降价一时爽，一直降价一直爽？可别到时候修车都找不到人……</p><p>这里面我们要稍作解释，到底什么叫亏损？一般大家看的是利润表，利润为负叫做亏损，<b>亏损有两种情况：收入大幅减少导致亏损、成本大幅抬高导致亏损。</b>在后一种情况当中，成本抬高，往往可能是因为把用于投资的开支、用于研发的开支，在财务上处理成了当期的费用，因此成本高昂导致亏损。</p><p>可是你知道，这完全不符合逻辑，你读个MBA、或者你买了个理财产品、甚至企业投的广告，这压根可不是成本，你投的是货真价实的资产啊！这些统统都是在给自己的未来存钱！虽然当期资金流出多，但是其实恰恰是对未来的大利好！</p><p>正因为如此，我们看一家企业是否亏钱，不是那么在意利润表，我们理解的亏钱<b>，是经营现金流为负，更严格的要求是自由现金流为负</b><b><span>（经营现金-投资支出）</span></b>，按照这样的标准来看，号称专注亏损二十年的大名鼎鼎的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>，其实从来没有&quot;亏&quot;过哪怕一分钱；而即使按照最低标准来看，特斯拉也确确实实是亏钱的，截止去年底，才算真正意义上现金流全面转正而已。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c871ee2a2da4f205aff2adec7fffc2\" /></p><p>特斯拉经营活动现金流量</p><p>说回来，既然情况真的很危险，那么再大幅降价，岂不是更加如履薄冰，是梁静茹给的你勇气吗?</p><p>这里面有两个关键要点：经济学第一规律——需求定律和外部同盟效应。</p><p>经济学最朴素的第一规律，就是需求定律。通俗来讲就是薄利多销，价格越便宜，销量越上升。特斯拉这次从35.6万降价到29.9万，降价幅度为16%，这就意味着它的销量只要能上升19%<span>（29.9*1.19=35.6）</span>就能让这次降价打平不亏。</p><p>汽车这个东西的价格弹性还算是比较大的，更何况是特斯拉，稍微降价带来的销量提升，大概率会大幅高于19%，降价对它自己有利可图，他们自己肯定做模型算过才定的价，咱们大伙就不用操心啦。</p><p>更重要的，我们最想和大家分享的是第二点，外部同盟效应。</p><p>三谷资本的曾凡华先生和树泽分享了这个重要的角度，企业竞争就好比行军打仗，靠自己是打不赢的，必须有内部同盟和外部同盟。一家公司能不能成，不能老是盯着表面看，它其实有很多强大的外部盟友，这种强大的联盟效应的合力，大家集体投了那么多的时间精力金钱，以至于它根本无法失败，甚至失败不起，太多人已经绑在了上面让它不能失败。</p><p>从这个角度，国产特斯拉绝对不是简单的外来和尚，它的&quot;特斯拉速度&quot;为啥那么快？那么巨大的上海工厂，三个月破土、半年建成、一年内新车下线！为啥？因为它已经得到中国汽车零件和新能源这两个产业链、甚至地方政府们的全力加持，此外，还有实力雄厚的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601988\">中国银行</a>业，累计给特斯拉中国工厂贷款超过了100亿元以上，这些可都是神队友啊！复仇者联盟合体，它们已经形成了一个强大的外部同盟效应。大家常常盯着特斯拉的一些技术问题和马斯克本身的性格和特点，却可能忽视了这种不容易分析到的外部同盟的巨大力量。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fffce8661cdce9ad9feceac0dc2efe0f\" /></p><p>那么大家可能会问了，那为啥要跟他结盟呢？我们有那么多的民族企业，你看那谁谁谁们。</p><p>这里就得站在更大的历史时空的语境中理解才会更深。在如今全球经济减速的背景下，中国经济肩膀上是有使命和责任的，我们向世界做出承诺，会进一步开放中国的市场，因此，无论引进来的是谁，他是哪里人、国籍如何，我们都信守诺言，开放大门，这是大国的信誉和承诺。</p><p>更重要的是，这让我们想起来了2010前后的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>和iphone。当时的情况和今天非常相似，我们当时也有很多民族手机品牌啊，什么手机中的战斗机坦克轰炸机啦，怎么能让苹果进来呢？</p><p>可是苹果进来之后，把技术授权给了很多做原材料的供应商，苹果帮助它们提高效率，改善工艺，降低成本，短短几年时间，中国在长三角、珠三角，形成了全球最强大的电子产业供应链。</p><p>一个极其励志的真实故事，当年一个十八九岁初出茅庐的小镇女孩，在富士康工厂做第一代女工，因为工作勤劳努力，也幸运赶上时代浪潮，晋升飞快。有了积蓄和经验之后，和哥哥凑钱去香港注册了一家小工厂，然后拿着资质在珠三角开办了一家自己的精密加工企业。</p><p>这小企业最早是帮助手机做连接器<span>（充电那个金属接口）</span>，因为工艺好效率高，被苹果相中成为供应商，这些年踏踏实实老老实实给苹果做些小零配件。士别三日刮目相看，今年再看这家公司，它甚至接到了苹果最新一代降噪耳机AirPods Pro一半的订单！</p><p>要知道，给苹果做生意，苹果给多少，你就只能赚多少，在给定毛利率低到只有20%的情况下，通过极为苛刻的成本控制，硬是把净利润率做到了近10%。<span>（中国上市公司整体净利润率只有3%多点）</span>而当年的年轻女工，如今已经是身家200亿的当地女首富，多么令人心潮澎湃的一个励志的人生故事，这种故事，也只有出生在水大鱼大的当今时代的中国才能上演。</p><p>说回来，<b>苹果的成功绝对不是自己技术的成功，也不是品牌的成功，而是一个非常典型的依靠外部同盟效应，形成强大合力的成功。</b>说是苹果培育了中国智能手机的需求，一点也不夸张，苹果生态孕育出中国的尖端电子产业供应链，其实是培养了一个行业的长期潜力，这才是真正的长期价值。</p><p>而到头来，今天，真正出货量更大的是谁呢？是华为、是小米、是OV。当年如果因为害怕影响民族工业，而把苹果挡在外面，那根本不会有我们电子产业的今天。</p><p>说到这，不禁想起日本便利店之父铃木敏文先生说的那句话：<b>&quot;垄断不是竞争优势，恰恰只是没有竞争&quot;。</b>打开大门，让竞争者进来，市场竞争打造磨练出来的能力，才是真正的竞争优势。具备竞争优势的公司，才是投资者最可靠的护城河。</p><p>说到未来，我们对中国的汽车行业充满了信心。道理很简单，看千人保有量，美国是830多台，日韩400台~600台，中国只有170多台，巨大的缺口意味着空间。但是这个机会到底是谁的？好比当年，中国的网民用户数不多，空间很大，但是互联网真正起来之后，谁最受益呢？不是卖电脑的，而是卖手机的，因为手机成为了接入网络的超级终端，很多没上过网的用户直接过顶传球跨过了电脑这个阶段，直接跳到了手机。</p><p>拥有智能驾驶系统的新能源车，会不会就是类同上述，让年轻人跨过燃油车的第一部车呢？</p><p>有幸见证这个时代，水大才能鱼大。</p>","source":"lsy1578453270226","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>回忆苹果手机往事，看清国产特斯拉的未来</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n回忆苹果手机往事，看清国产特斯拉的未来\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-01-08 11:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LWP0MzOQWeKYo_t9Cnfp2g><strong>许树泽树我直言</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：许树泽国产$特斯拉(TSLA)$的中国速度让人吃惊，就好比考试的时候，还没打铃，但第一名已经早早交卷，后面没做完的同学们可要抓紧时间了。考场上还有谁呢？当然不仅仅是中国的那些电动车新势力，马斯克想要征服的是全球整个汽车工业，是亨利福特以来所有的那些燃油车们。国产特斯拉就好比是1984年的那台上海大众桑塔纳，一个新的时代的大幕已经拉开了。先说结论：电动车还能继续降价。虽然打过折已经便宜很多了，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LWP0MzOQWeKYo_t9Cnfp2g\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9749762c5ee11a52030b4c66a89c8026","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LWP0MzOQWeKYo_t9Cnfp2g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148711113","content_text":"作者：许树泽国产$特斯拉(TSLA)$的中国速度让人吃惊，就好比考试的时候，还没打铃，但第一名已经早早交卷，后面没做完的同学们可要抓紧时间了。考场上还有谁呢？当然不仅仅是中国的那些电动车新势力，马斯克想要征服的是全球整个汽车工业，是亨利福特以来所有的那些燃油车们。国产特斯拉就好比是1984年的那台上海大众桑塔纳，一个新的时代的大幕已经拉开了。先说结论：电动车还能继续降价。虽然打过折已经便宜很多了，但是未来降价的幅度，按照一些工程师对成本的估算，顺利的话，一年后还有15%的空间。这个结论有两个重要依据：电池成本持续下降和零配件快速国产化。首先，电动车就是一台会跑的电池嘛，电池在车子的成本中占比是最高的。电池想要提高性能那是非常难的，挑战的不是竞争对手，而是物理极限；但是换个思路，电池改善技术，降低成本，这个是完全可以有的。在过去的五年中，全球电池成本每年下降16%，如果保持这个速度，越往后就可以越便宜。第二点，国产特斯拉的零配件，有30%已经国产化了，按照计划，到夏天，有70%的零件可以国产，到了12月底，100%的零件可以全部国产。这两重暴击，可以继续大幅降低国产特斯拉的综合成本，就可以继续降价。那么大家很自然有个疑问，据说这公司一直亏钱啊，亏钱还敢降价，它就不怕倒闭吗？！它如果倒闭了，车主们怎么办呢？降价一时爽，一直降价一直爽？可别到时候修车都找不到人……这里面我们要稍作解释，到底什么叫亏损？一般大家看的是利润表，利润为负叫做亏损，亏损有两种情况：收入大幅减少导致亏损、成本大幅抬高导致亏损。在后一种情况当中，成本抬高，往往可能是因为把用于投资的开支、用于研发的开支，在财务上处理成了当期的费用，因此成本高昂导致亏损。可是你知道，这完全不符合逻辑，你读个MBA、或者你买了个理财产品、甚至企业投的广告，这压根可不是成本，你投的是货真价实的资产啊！这些统统都是在给自己的未来存钱！虽然当期资金流出多，但是其实恰恰是对未来的大利好！正因为如此，我们看一家企业是否亏钱，不是那么在意利润表，我们理解的亏钱，是经营现金流为负，更严格的要求是自由现金流为负（经营现金-投资支出），按照这样的标准来看，号称专注亏损二十年的大名鼎鼎的亚马逊，其实从来没有\"亏\"过哪怕一分钱；而即使按照最低标准来看，特斯拉也确确实实是亏钱的，截止去年底，才算真正意义上现金流全面转正而已。特斯拉经营活动现金流量说回来，既然情况真的很危险，那么再大幅降价，岂不是更加如履薄冰，是梁静茹给的你勇气吗?这里面有两个关键要点：经济学第一规律——需求定律和外部同盟效应。经济学最朴素的第一规律，就是需求定律。通俗来讲就是薄利多销，价格越便宜，销量越上升。特斯拉这次从35.6万降价到29.9万，降价幅度为16%，这就意味着它的销量只要能上升19%（29.9*1.19=35.6）就能让这次降价打平不亏。汽车这个东西的价格弹性还算是比较大的，更何况是特斯拉，稍微降价带来的销量提升，大概率会大幅高于19%，降价对它自己有利可图，他们自己肯定做模型算过才定的价，咱们大伙就不用操心啦。更重要的，我们最想和大家分享的是第二点，外部同盟效应。三谷资本的曾凡华先生和树泽分享了这个重要的角度，企业竞争就好比行军打仗，靠自己是打不赢的，必须有内部同盟和外部同盟。一家公司能不能成，不能老是盯着表面看，它其实有很多强大的外部盟友，这种强大的联盟效应的合力，大家集体投了那么多的时间精力金钱，以至于它根本无法失败，甚至失败不起，太多人已经绑在了上面让它不能失败。从这个角度，国产特斯拉绝对不是简单的外来和尚，它的\"特斯拉速度\"为啥那么快？那么巨大的上海工厂，三个月破土、半年建成、一年内新车下线！为啥？因为它已经得到中国汽车零件和新能源这两个产业链、甚至地方政府们的全力加持，此外，还有实力雄厚的中国银行业，累计给特斯拉中国工厂贷款超过了100亿元以上，这些可都是神队友啊！复仇者联盟合体，它们已经形成了一个强大的外部同盟效应。大家常常盯着特斯拉的一些技术问题和马斯克本身的性格和特点，却可能忽视了这种不容易分析到的外部同盟的巨大力量。那么大家可能会问了，那为啥要跟他结盟呢？我们有那么多的民族企业，你看那谁谁谁们。这里就得站在更大的历史时空的语境中理解才会更深。在如今全球经济减速的背景下，中国经济肩膀上是有使命和责任的，我们向世界做出承诺，会进一步开放中国的市场，因此，无论引进来的是谁，他是哪里人、国籍如何，我们都信守诺言，开放大门，这是大国的信誉和承诺。更重要的是，这让我们想起来了2010前后的苹果和iphone。当时的情况和今天非常相似，我们当时也有很多民族手机品牌啊，什么手机中的战斗机坦克轰炸机啦，怎么能让苹果进来呢？可是苹果进来之后，把技术授权给了很多做原材料的供应商，苹果帮助它们提高效率，改善工艺，降低成本，短短几年时间，中国在长三角、珠三角，形成了全球最强大的电子产业供应链。一个极其励志的真实故事，当年一个十八九岁初出茅庐的小镇女孩，在富士康工厂做第一代女工，因为工作勤劳努力，也幸运赶上时代浪潮，晋升飞快。有了积蓄和经验之后，和哥哥凑钱去香港注册了一家小工厂，然后拿着资质在珠三角开办了一家自己的精密加工企业。这小企业最早是帮助手机做连接器（充电那个金属接口），因为工艺好效率高，被苹果相中成为供应商，这些年踏踏实实老老实实给苹果做些小零配件。士别三日刮目相看，今年再看这家公司，它甚至接到了苹果最新一代降噪耳机AirPods 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