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linhaifeng
2022-08-08
看到空,意味着要多
Delete Snap Stock From Your Watchlist, Despite Drop to Pandemic Lows
linhaifeng
2022-07-16
押宝明年衰退
美股隔夜大逆转背后:前官员预测美联储“转向”时间!
linhaifeng
2021-12-18
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@英为财情:当前主导油价的居然是它!
linhaifeng
2021-08-11
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@英为财情:美国7月非农竟“造假”????
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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Especially social media stocks. Major names in the space have given a large chunk of their respective pandemic era gains. With <b>Snap</b>(NYSE:<b>SNAP</b>), the pullback has been even more severe. SNAP stock has given back all of its gains and has fallen back to price levels last seen in Spring 2020.</p><p>On the surface, it may seem like the market has overreacted. Unfortunately, this is not the case. Investors haven’t been irrational in sending the stock down 78% since January, and nearly 87% over the past two months.</p><p>Many factors are working against it at this moment. These factors will likely persist in the quarters ahead. With more disappointment ahead, the situation could get worse before it begins to get better. There’s a good chance shares could tank once again, like they’ve done several times since last October.</p><p><b>How SNAP Stock Fell Into the Market Graveyard</b></p><p>Macro headwinds have by all means played a role in Snap’s severe stock price decline. Rising interest rates, in response to high inflation, have resulted in lower valuation for tech/growth stocks (valued more heavily on future rather than present results).</p><p>Rising concern about a recession has also put pressure on tech stocks. In particular, tech stocks with advertising-based revenue models. However, the biggest factor behind the big drop in SNAP stock is the company’s own underwhelming operating performance in recent quarters.</p><p>This kicked off well before the stock market downturn began in late 2021. For instance, shares plunged back in October, following underwhelming revenue numbers and weak guidance for the preceding quarter. Tumbling further due to the late 2021/early 2022 selloffs, the stock did at one point appear primed for a rebound.</p><p>Beating estimates for the last quarter of 2021, at the time (February) it seemed as if Snap shares were finding a floor. But the selloff resumed by spring, following its Q1 2022 results, which fell short of expectations. This resumed selloff accelerated in May, as management began to prepare the market for its latest earnings release.</p><p><b>Why It Cratered Again Following the Latest Earnings Release</b></p><p>On May 24, following management’s release of a warning about its upcoming Q2 2022 earnings release, SNAP stock fell a staggering 43%. With such a big drop, many may have thought the negative impact of poor results was already priced-in ahead of the actual release of results on July 21.</p><p>Of course, this clearly wasn’t the case. Instead, Snap shares took another similarly-high dive, falling 39.1%, and back to pandemic lows, right after results hit the street. As mentioned, this “full trip” back may seem like a case of the market overdoing it a bit. Taking a closer look at the latest numbers, however, this big drop made sense.</p><p>While Daily Active User (or DAU) growth held steady on a sequential (quarter-over-quarter) basis, revenue growth fell considerably. In Q1 2022, the company reported a year-over-year (YoY) revenue growth of38%. This quarter, revenues were up only18%YoY.</p><p>Worse yet, the company chose not to provide Q3 guidance. Instead, CEO Evan Spiegel vaguely outlined plans to get Snap back into high-growth mode. Spiegel and his team may be earnestly trying to get things back on track, but the issues causing its current growth slump will be tough to overcome.</p><p><b>The Takeaway With SNAP Stock</b></p><p>As Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak noted in his post-earnings downgrade of the stock, two issues that played a role in its poor numbers for Q2 will continue to affect it in the quarters ahead.</p><p>The first is a weakening economy. Snap may have thought it could reduce the impact of <b>Apple’s</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AAPL</u></b>) iOS privacy changes with a pivot to branded ads on its platform, yet an economic slowdown could derail this strategy change.</p><p>The second, rising competition. Rival platform <b>TikTok</b> could grab an increasingly larger chunk of the ad dollars that would’ve otherwise made their way into Snap’s coffers.</p><p>As revenue growth continues to slow, fully moving out of the red remains murky as well. More disappointment, and lower prices for SNAP stock, likely lie ahead. A falling knife with a ways to go before bottoming out, it’s best to avoid.</p><p>SNAP stock earns an “F” rating in my <i>Portfolio Grader</i>.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Delete Snap Stock From Your Watchlist, Despite Drop to Pandemic Lows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDelete Snap Stock From Your Watchlist, Despite Drop to Pandemic Lows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-06 11:02 GMT+8 <a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/08/snap-stock-delete-from-watchlist-despite-drop-to-pandemic-lows/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pandemic-era high-flier,Snap(SNAP) has fallen back to price levels last seen in 2020.This may make it seem like a bargain at first glance, but its latest fiscal results signal that is not the case....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/snap-stock-delete-from-watchlist-despite-drop-to-pandemic-lows/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNAP":"Snap Inc"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/snap-stock-delete-from-watchlist-despite-drop-to-pandemic-lows/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156938348","content_text":"A pandemic-era high-flier,Snap(SNAP) has fallen back to price levels last seen in 2020.This may make it seem like a bargain at first glance, but its latest fiscal results signal that is not the case.With growth deceleration likely to continue, this social media stock could continue to fall in price.It’s been a tough year for tech stocks. Especially social media stocks. Major names in the space have given a large chunk of their respective pandemic era gains. With Snap(NYSE:SNAP), the pullback has been even more severe. SNAP stock has given back all of its gains and has fallen back to price levels last seen in Spring 2020.On the surface, it may seem like the market has overreacted. Unfortunately, this is not the case. Investors haven’t been irrational in sending the stock down 78% since January, and nearly 87% over the past two months.Many factors are working against it at this moment. These factors will likely persist in the quarters ahead. With more disappointment ahead, the situation could get worse before it begins to get better. There’s a good chance shares could tank once again, like they’ve done several times since last October.How SNAP Stock Fell Into the Market GraveyardMacro headwinds have by all means played a role in Snap’s severe stock price decline. Rising interest rates, in response to high inflation, have resulted in lower valuation for tech/growth stocks (valued more heavily on future rather than present results).Rising concern about a recession has also put pressure on tech stocks. In particular, tech stocks with advertising-based revenue models. However, the biggest factor behind the big drop in SNAP stock is the company’s own underwhelming operating performance in recent quarters.This kicked off well before the stock market downturn began in late 2021. For instance, shares plunged back in October, following underwhelming revenue numbers and weak guidance for the preceding quarter. Tumbling further due to the late 2021/early 2022 selloffs, the stock did at one point appear primed for a rebound.Beating estimates for the last quarter of 2021, at the time (February) it seemed as if Snap shares were finding a floor. But the selloff resumed by spring, following its Q1 2022 results, which fell short of expectations. This resumed selloff accelerated in May, as management began to prepare the market for its latest earnings release.Why It Cratered Again Following the Latest Earnings ReleaseOn May 24, following management’s release of a warning about its upcoming Q2 2022 earnings release, SNAP stock fell a staggering 43%. With such a big drop, many may have thought the negative impact of poor results was already priced-in ahead of the actual release of results on July 21.Of course, this clearly wasn’t the case. Instead, Snap shares took another similarly-high dive, falling 39.1%, and back to pandemic lows, right after results hit the street. As mentioned, this “full trip” back may seem like a case of the market overdoing it a bit. Taking a closer look at the latest numbers, however, this big drop made sense.While Daily Active User (or DAU) growth held steady on a sequential (quarter-over-quarter) basis, revenue growth fell considerably. In Q1 2022, the company reported a year-over-year (YoY) revenue growth of38%. This quarter, revenues were up only18%YoY.Worse yet, the company chose not to provide Q3 guidance. Instead, CEO Evan Spiegel vaguely outlined plans to get Snap back into high-growth mode. Spiegel and his team may be earnestly trying to get things back on track, but the issues causing its current growth slump will be tough to overcome.The Takeaway With SNAP StockAs Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak noted in his post-earnings downgrade of the stock, two issues that played a role in its poor numbers for Q2 will continue to affect it in the quarters ahead.The first is a weakening economy. Snap may have thought it could reduce the impact of Apple’s(NASDAQ:AAPL) iOS privacy changes with a pivot to branded ads on its platform, yet an economic slowdown could derail this strategy change.The second, rising competition. Rival platform TikTok could grab an increasingly larger chunk of the ad dollars that would’ve otherwise made their way into Snap’s coffers.As revenue growth continues to slow, fully moving out of the red remains murky as well. More disappointment, and lower prices for SNAP stock, likely lie ahead. A falling knife with a ways to go before bottoming out, it’s best to avoid.SNAP stock earns an “F” rating in my Portfolio Grader.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":686048298,"gmtCreate":1657936083017,"gmtModify":1704868716360,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"押宝明年衰退","listText":"押宝明年衰退","text":"押宝明年衰退","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686048298","repostId":"1174033197","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174033197","pubTimestamp":1657854563,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174033197?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-15 11:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股隔夜大逆转背后:前官员预测美联储“转向”时间!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174033197","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"华尔街“最懂美联储”的分析师:明年下半年不仅降息,还会提前结束缩表!","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者:叶桢</p><p>隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转,从深跌到收复大部分失地,纳指更是惊险收涨,而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。</p><p>周四,在强势的加息预期下,美股三大股指集体低开,一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹,标普最终收跌0.3%,道指收跌0.46%,纳指收涨0.03%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2deed31b461495ac0cd1a610806c8d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声,缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期,一定程度上助推了美股反弹,但很多市场一线交易员都认为真正导致隔夜美股大逆转的是美国银行顶级利率策略师、前纽约联储分析师Marc Cabana的一份报告,该报告认为,美联储将被迫比预期早得多地结束紧缩政策。</p><p>Cabana是美国银行全球研究的美国利率策略主管,在加入美银之前,他是纽约联储市场部的一名官员,在公开市场交易部门工作了近9年,并在金融危机期间密切参与了一系列资产购买/量化宽松计划的设计和实施。</p><p>Cabana对货币政策的预测准确率非常高,曾在美联储购买公司债的前几天就预测到了,这也使得他在华尔街享有很高的声望,他对美联储政策、利率和金融监管的看法总是能引起广泛关注和影响。</p><p>那么Cabana的最新报告究竟说了什么?</p><p>明年下半年,美联储不仅会降息,还会提前结束缩表</p><p>周四,在美银股票策略团队下调标普年终目标位从4500点到3600点后,Cabana团队发布了一份报告,<b>大幅向下修正美国利率预测,预计美联储明年下半年不仅会降息,还会提前结束缩表。</b></p><p>同一天,美银宏观团队下调美国经济预测以反映今年衰退,并且下调了美联储联邦基金利率路径,对于最终联邦基金利率预期从4.00-4.25%下调至3.25-3.50%,并且预期美联储将在明年9月23日至6月24日期间降息100个基点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cfa16d6972770bc5deaa91c186de8f8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Cabana团队相应地下调了对美债收益率的预期,将2022年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.50%下调至2.75%,2023年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.25%下调至2.50%,并表示:</p><blockquote>鉴于对美联储在23年下半年和24年上半年降息的预期,我们的新预测相对市场隐含远期利率来说非常地乐观。我们之前的利率预测最初反映了相对远期利率的乐观倾向,但最新修正则更加乐观。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44553abdeabbffb36eb5602065c594bb\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20cc791e11d977c8134517896a90ecaf\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p>Cabana还预计美联储明年下半年将在缩表结束时降息:</p><blockquote>因为降息和缩表传递的是相互矛盾的政策信号,我们预计美联储降息同时将停止缩表,以简化政策沟通;美联储不太可能在通过降息来宽松的同时,采用缩表来紧缩。</blockquote><p>Cabana表示,实际上美联储在2019年就是这样做的,当时美联储在7月开始降息,并同时宣布停止缩表。当然美联储也有可能选择不遵循2019年的束策略,但Cabana认为这是不太可能的,他补充了一些理由:</p><blockquote>美联储只有在一段时间的通胀上升后才会将前端利率"正常化",美联储的资产负债表可能仍远未达到储备短缺的程度。我们看到了每个论点的逻辑,但相信很难在事前证明。我们预计美联储会选择最简单的沟通方式:在降息时停止缩表。</blockquote><p>Cabana接着指出,较早的结束缩表会对美债产生几个影响:</p><blockquote>由于金融系统中有更多现金/更少的抵押品,减少了短期美债贬值压力,由于融资需求降低,可能会有更多的息票减少,以及由于美联储重新开始购买和再投资而导致的二级市场混乱减少。每一种都将倾向于偏向美债收益率和担保隔夜融资利率的息差(UST-SOFR spreads) 在曲线上趋于更广。</blockquote><p>至于美联储的资产负债表会发生什么变化,Cabana表示:</p><blockquote>与我们之前的预测相比,美联储于2023年9月停止缩表将导致资产负债表较之前预测的2024年底结束的情况减少1万亿美元。缩表更早结束将导致减少7800亿美元的美债融资需求,外加美联储对美债的3500亿美元额外需求。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9f70fabfaae1c371e524a8d0a425c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股隔夜大逆转背后:前官员预测美联储“转向”时间!</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股隔夜大逆转背后:前官员预测美联储“转向”时间!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-15 11:09 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者:叶桢隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转,从深跌到收复大部分失地,纳指更是惊险收涨,而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。周四,在强势的加息预期下,美股三大股指集体低开,一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹,标普最终收跌0.3%,道指收跌0.46%,纳指收涨0.03%。日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声,缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期,一定程度上助推了美股反弹,但很多市场一线交易员都...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1174033197","content_text":"作者:叶桢隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转,从深跌到收复大部分失地,纳指更是惊险收涨,而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。周四,在强势的加息预期下,美股三大股指集体低开,一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹,标普最终收跌0.3%,道指收跌0.46%,纳指收涨0.03%。日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声,缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期,一定程度上助推了美股反弹,但很多市场一线交易员都认为真正导致隔夜美股大逆转的是美国银行顶级利率策略师、前纽约联储分析师Marc Cabana的一份报告,该报告认为,美联储将被迫比预期早得多地结束紧缩政策。Cabana是美国银行全球研究的美国利率策略主管,在加入美银之前,他是纽约联储市场部的一名官员,在公开市场交易部门工作了近9年,并在金融危机期间密切参与了一系列资产购买/量化宽松计划的设计和实施。Cabana对货币政策的预测准确率非常高,曾在美联储购买公司债的前几天就预测到了,这也使得他在华尔街享有很高的声望,他对美联储政策、利率和金融监管的看法总是能引起广泛关注和影响。那么Cabana的最新报告究竟说了什么?明年下半年,美联储不仅会降息,还会提前结束缩表周四,在美银股票策略团队下调标普年终目标位从4500点到3600点后,Cabana团队发布了一份报告,大幅向下修正美国利率预测,预计美联储明年下半年不仅会降息,还会提前结束缩表。同一天,美银宏观团队下调美国经济预测以反映今年衰退,并且下调了美联储联邦基金利率路径,对于最终联邦基金利率预期从4.00-4.25%下调至3.25-3.50%,并且预期美联储将在明年9月23日至6月24日期间降息100个基点。Cabana团队相应地下调了对美债收益率的预期,将2022年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.50%下调至2.75%,2023年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.25%下调至2.50%,并表示:鉴于对美联储在23年下半年和24年上半年降息的预期,我们的新预测相对市场隐含远期利率来说非常地乐观。我们之前的利率预测最初反映了相对远期利率的乐观倾向,但最新修正则更加乐观。Cabana还预计美联储明年下半年将在缩表结束时降息:因为降息和缩表传递的是相互矛盾的政策信号,我们预计美联储降息同时将停止缩表,以简化政策沟通;美联储不太可能在通过降息来宽松的同时,采用缩表来紧缩。Cabana表示,实际上美联储在2019年就是这样做的,当时美联储在7月开始降息,并同时宣布停止缩表。当然美联储也有可能选择不遵循2019年的束策略,但Cabana认为这是不太可能的,他补充了一些理由:美联储只有在一段时间的通胀上升后才会将前端利率\"正常化\",美联储的资产负债表可能仍远未达到储备短缺的程度。我们看到了每个论点的逻辑,但相信很难在事前证明。我们预计美联储会选择最简单的沟通方式:在降息时停止缩表。Cabana接着指出,较早的结束缩表会对美债产生几个影响:由于金融系统中有更多现金/更少的抵押品,减少了短期美债贬值压力,由于融资需求降低,可能会有更多的息票减少,以及由于美联储重新开始购买和再投资而导致的二级市场混乱减少。每一种都将倾向于偏向美债收益率和担保隔夜融资利率的息差(UST-SOFR spreads) 在曲线上趋于更广。至于美联储的资产负债表会发生什么变化,Cabana表示:与我们之前的预测相比,美联储于2023年9月停止缩表将导致资产负债表较之前预测的2024年底结束的情况减少1万亿美元。缩表更早结束将导致减少7800亿美元的美债融资需求,外加美联储对美债的3500亿美元额外需求。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699272898,"gmtCreate":1639826084917,"gmtModify":1639826252194,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699272898","repostId":"699249566","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":699249566,"gmtCreate":1639821120000,"gmtModify":1639825460685,"author":{"id":"3489725211341675","authorId":"3489725211341675","name":"英为财情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/90beb74040cb78811d8df6ccd44be346","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"当前主导油价的居然是它!","htmlText":"01 随着年底的临近,通货膨胀成为全球经济最大和最直接的问题之一。 尽管疫情相关问题仍然是石油市场上的热门话题,但对交易员来说,了解通胀将如何影响油价或许更为重要。 WTI原油期货周线图,来源:Investing.com 尽管由于奥密克戎病毒的传播导致新冠病例再次增加,并且它对经济和旅游的冲击较大,但是通胀可能抵消油价的上涨,甚至可能占据主导地位。 最新的消费者价格指数(CPI)显示,美国2021年的通货膨胀率为6.8%,是1982年6月以来的新高。而生产者价格指数(PPI)的增长率甚至更高,达到9.6%。 (美国未季调居民消费价格指数(CPI)年率,来自Investing.com“财经日历”) 持续上涨的通货膨胀越来越令人感到担忧,就连美联储也改变了对通胀的态度,它在周四宣布计划在2022年加息。 当通货膨胀上升时,油价就会相应上升。石油生产商正面临着从劳动力到运输到零部件等各个方面的成本上升; 此外,他们出售石油得到的美元价值也下降了。 因此,他们必须把价格提高才行,这对石油价格造成了上行压力。 02 今年3月,在美国政府批准了4.8万亿美元的刺激支出后,我就已经对美元贬值的可能性发出了警告。当这种情况发生时,其它产油国就会面临更大的压力,以更高的价格出售石油,因为它们希望在将石油价格转换为本国货币后保持其价值。 石油不仅仅是一种在交易所交易的投机性商品。它也是实实在在的商品。到2022年,石油生产商将需要比以往任何时候都高的价格,才能达到以前的价值。 随着2021年的结束和2022年的开始,疫情和相关限制措施对经济的影响仍然充满不确定性。人们担心奥密克戎病毒的威胁,担心可能会继续增加旅行限制,担心美国主要大学的关闭,以及欧洲各地的**活动。 一些分析师警告称,油价可能会跌回每桶50美元或40美元,尤其是在11月底的黑色星期五出现大","listText":"01 随着年底的临近,通货膨胀成为全球经济最大和最直接的问题之一。 尽管疫情相关问题仍然是石油市场上的热门话题,但对交易员来说,了解通胀将如何影响油价或许更为重要。 WTI原油期货周线图,来源:Investing.com 尽管由于奥密克戎病毒的传播导致新冠病例再次增加,并且它对经济和旅游的冲击较大,但是通胀可能抵消油价的上涨,甚至可能占据主导地位。 最新的消费者价格指数(CPI)显示,美国2021年的通货膨胀率为6.8%,是1982年6月以来的新高。而生产者价格指数(PPI)的增长率甚至更高,达到9.6%。 (美国未季调居民消费价格指数(CPI)年率,来自Investing.com“财经日历”) 持续上涨的通货膨胀越来越令人感到担忧,就连美联储也改变了对通胀的态度,它在周四宣布计划在2022年加息。 当通货膨胀上升时,油价就会相应上升。石油生产商正面临着从劳动力到运输到零部件等各个方面的成本上升; 此外,他们出售石油得到的美元价值也下降了。 因此,他们必须把价格提高才行,这对石油价格造成了上行压力。 02 今年3月,在美国政府批准了4.8万亿美元的刺激支出后,我就已经对美元贬值的可能性发出了警告。当这种情况发生时,其它产油国就会面临更大的压力,以更高的价格出售石油,因为它们希望在将石油价格转换为本国货币后保持其价值。 石油不仅仅是一种在交易所交易的投机性商品。它也是实实在在的商品。到2022年,石油生产商将需要比以往任何时候都高的价格,才能达到以前的价值。 随着2021年的结束和2022年的开始,疫情和相关限制措施对经济的影响仍然充满不确定性。人们担心奥密克戎病毒的威胁,担心可能会继续增加旅行限制,担心美国主要大学的关闭,以及欧洲各地的**活动。 一些分析师警告称,油价可能会跌回每桶50美元或40美元,尤其是在11月底的黑色星期五出现大","text":"01 随着年底的临近,通货膨胀成为全球经济最大和最直接的问题之一。 尽管疫情相关问题仍然是石油市场上的热门话题,但对交易员来说,了解通胀将如何影响油价或许更为重要。 WTI原油期货周线图,来源:Investing.com 尽管由于奥密克戎病毒的传播导致新冠病例再次增加,并且它对经济和旅游的冲击较大,但是通胀可能抵消油价的上涨,甚至可能占据主导地位。 最新的消费者价格指数(CPI)显示,美国2021年的通货膨胀率为6.8%,是1982年6月以来的新高。而生产者价格指数(PPI)的增长率甚至更高,达到9.6%。 (美国未季调居民消费价格指数(CPI)年率,来自Investing.com“财经日历”) 持续上涨的通货膨胀越来越令人感到担忧,就连美联储也改变了对通胀的态度,它在周四宣布计划在2022年加息。 当通货膨胀上升时,油价就会相应上升。石油生产商正面临着从劳动力到运输到零部件等各个方面的成本上升; 此外,他们出售石油得到的美元价值也下降了。 因此,他们必须把价格提高才行,这对石油价格造成了上行压力。 02 今年3月,在美国政府批准了4.8万亿美元的刺激支出后,我就已经对美元贬值的可能性发出了警告。当这种情况发生时,其它产油国就会面临更大的压力,以更高的价格出售石油,因为它们希望在将石油价格转换为本国货币后保持其价值。 石油不仅仅是一种在交易所交易的投机性商品。它也是实实在在的商品。到2022年,石油生产商将需要比以往任何时候都高的价格,才能达到以前的价值。 随着2021年的结束和2022年的开始,疫情和相关限制措施对经济的影响仍然充满不确定性。人们担心奥密克戎病毒的威胁,担心可能会继续增加旅行限制,担心美国主要大学的关闭,以及欧洲各地的**活动。 一些分析师警告称,油价可能会跌回每桶50美元或40美元,尤其是在11月底的黑色星期五出现大","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c1b9a03a1a4b23a2fe28c04f513b20","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699249566","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":892440396,"gmtCreate":1628686285615,"gmtModify":1628686487499,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892440396","repostId":"892641918","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":892641918,"gmtCreate":1628594340000,"gmtModify":1628660331151,"author":{"id":"3489725211341675","authorId":"3489725211341675","name":"英为财情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/90beb74040cb78811d8df6ccd44be346","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"美国7月非农竟“造假”????","htmlText":"此前,随着美国的通胀数据的爆表,美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”,美国未来通胀会下滑,美联储还不到加息的时候。 美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示,美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调,美国经济要想在稳定物价和充分就业方面取得实质性进展还有很长的路要走。 只有美国就业市场 “取得一些进展”,才可能改变宽松的货币政策并开启缩减资产购买规模。 一时间,就业状况成了美联储的“遮羞布”。 01.美联储的“遮羞布”遮不住了 上周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示,美国7月非农就业岗位增加94.3万个,创2020年8月以来的最大增幅,失业率降至5.4%,为16个月最低。 5月和6月的数据均被修正,显示新增就业岗位数比之前报告的多11.9万个。 劳动参与率从6月的61.6%提高到61.7%。7月平均时薪增长0.4%,同比上涨4.0%。许多经济学家认为今年美国经济将录得近40年来最强劲增长。 如此强劲的非农就业数据令市场大为振奋,美联储或再无鸽派的理由,市场预期缩减购债规模的时间表将在本月杰克逊霍尔的会议或者9月的利率会议上发布。 02.美联储官员也纷纷发表鹰派的言论 亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示,美国经济改善速度比预期更快,美联储正在快速接近开始削减购债规模的时点,通胀已经达到了满足开始加息的一个关键标准。 博斯蒂克称,他预计在第四季开始缩减购债规模,但如果就业市场保持近期的强劲增长步伐,他对更早开始缩减购债持开放态度。 波士顿联储总裁罗森格伦表示,美联储可能比这更早地开始撤走支持措施。 里奇蒙联储总裁巴尔金表示,今年的高通胀可能已经满足了美联储加息的一个标准,不过在加息之前,就业市场仍需进一步恢复。 虽然这几位官员整体偏鹰派,但是还是有部分官员同鲍威尔的观点一致,认为就业市场需进一步恢复,难道如此强劲的非农就业报告还不够吗? 03.真实的美国就业状况 周一美国公布的数据显示,6月JOLTS职位空","listText":"此前,随着美国的通胀数据的爆表,美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”,美国未来通胀会下滑,美联储还不到加息的时候。 美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示,美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调,美国经济要想在稳定物价和充分就业方面取得实质性进展还有很长的路要走。 只有美国就业市场 “取得一些进展”,才可能改变宽松的货币政策并开启缩减资产购买规模。 一时间,就业状况成了美联储的“遮羞布”。 01.美联储的“遮羞布”遮不住了 上周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示,美国7月非农就业岗位增加94.3万个,创2020年8月以来的最大增幅,失业率降至5.4%,为16个月最低。 5月和6月的数据均被修正,显示新增就业岗位数比之前报告的多11.9万个。 劳动参与率从6月的61.6%提高到61.7%。7月平均时薪增长0.4%,同比上涨4.0%。许多经济学家认为今年美国经济将录得近40年来最强劲增长。 如此强劲的非农就业数据令市场大为振奋,美联储或再无鸽派的理由,市场预期缩减购债规模的时间表将在本月杰克逊霍尔的会议或者9月的利率会议上发布。 02.美联储官员也纷纷发表鹰派的言论 亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示,美国经济改善速度比预期更快,美联储正在快速接近开始削减购债规模的时点,通胀已经达到了满足开始加息的一个关键标准。 博斯蒂克称,他预计在第四季开始缩减购债规模,但如果就业市场保持近期的强劲增长步伐,他对更早开始缩减购债持开放态度。 波士顿联储总裁罗森格伦表示,美联储可能比这更早地开始撤走支持措施。 里奇蒙联储总裁巴尔金表示,今年的高通胀可能已经满足了美联储加息的一个标准,不过在加息之前,就业市场仍需进一步恢复。 虽然这几位官员整体偏鹰派,但是还是有部分官员同鲍威尔的观点一致,认为就业市场需进一步恢复,难道如此强劲的非农就业报告还不够吗? 03.真实的美国就业状况 周一美国公布的数据显示,6月JOLTS职位空","text":"此前,随着美国的通胀数据的爆表,美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”,美国未来通胀会下滑,美联储还不到加息的时候。 美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示,美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调,美国经济要想在稳定物价和充分就业方面取得实质性进展还有很长的路要走。 只有美国就业市场 “取得一些进展”,才可能改变宽松的货币政策并开启缩减资产购买规模。 一时间,就业状况成了美联储的“遮羞布”。 01.美联储的“遮羞布”遮不住了 上周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示,美国7月非农就业岗位增加94.3万个,创2020年8月以来的最大增幅,失业率降至5.4%,为16个月最低。 5月和6月的数据均被修正,显示新增就业岗位数比之前报告的多11.9万个。 劳动参与率从6月的61.6%提高到61.7%。7月平均时薪增长0.4%,同比上涨4.0%。许多经济学家认为今年美国经济将录得近40年来最强劲增长。 如此强劲的非农就业数据令市场大为振奋,美联储或再无鸽派的理由,市场预期缩减购债规模的时间表将在本月杰克逊霍尔的会议或者9月的利率会议上发布。 02.美联储官员也纷纷发表鹰派的言论 亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示,美国经济改善速度比预期更快,美联储正在快速接近开始削减购债规模的时点,通胀已经达到了满足开始加息的一个关键标准。 博斯蒂克称,他预计在第四季开始缩减购债规模,但如果就业市场保持近期的强劲增长步伐,他对更早开始缩减购债持开放态度。 波士顿联储总裁罗森格伦表示,美联储可能比这更早地开始撤走支持措施。 里奇蒙联储总裁巴尔金表示,今年的高通胀可能已经满足了美联储加息的一个标准,不过在加息之前,就业市场仍需进一步恢复。 虽然这几位官员整体偏鹰派,但是还是有部分官员同鲍威尔的观点一致,认为就业市场需进一步恢复,难道如此强劲的非农就业报告还不够吗? 03.真实的美国就业状况 周一美国公布的数据显示,6月JOLTS职位空","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b34eac3fa5544069f87333378bea87a","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892641918","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":685775000,"gmtCreate":1659966420002,"gmtModify":1659966420002,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看到空,意味着要多","listText":"看到空,意味着要多","text":"看到空,意味着要多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685775000","repostId":"1156938348","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":686048298,"gmtCreate":1657936083017,"gmtModify":1704868716360,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"押宝明年衰退","listText":"押宝明年衰退","text":"押宝明年衰退","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686048298","repostId":"1174033197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699272898,"gmtCreate":1639826084917,"gmtModify":1639826252194,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699272898","repostId":"699249566","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":699249566,"gmtCreate":1639821120000,"gmtModify":1639825460685,"author":{"id":"3489725211341675","authorId":"3489725211341675","name":"英为财情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/90beb74040cb78811d8df6ccd44be346","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"当前主导油价的居然是它!","htmlText":"01 随着年底的临近,通货膨胀成为全球经济最大和最直接的问题之一。 尽管疫情相关问题仍然是石油市场上的热门话题,但对交易员来说,了解通胀将如何影响油价或许更为重要。 WTI原油期货周线图,来源:Investing.com 尽管由于奥密克戎病毒的传播导致新冠病例再次增加,并且它对经济和旅游的冲击较大,但是通胀可能抵消油价的上涨,甚至可能占据主导地位。 最新的消费者价格指数(CPI)显示,美国2021年的通货膨胀率为6.8%,是1982年6月以来的新高。而生产者价格指数(PPI)的增长率甚至更高,达到9.6%。 (美国未季调居民消费价格指数(CPI)年率,来自Investing.com“财经日历”) 持续上涨的通货膨胀越来越令人感到担忧,就连美联储也改变了对通胀的态度,它在周四宣布计划在2022年加息。 当通货膨胀上升时,油价就会相应上升。石油生产商正面临着从劳动力到运输到零部件等各个方面的成本上升; 此外,他们出售石油得到的美元价值也下降了。 因此,他们必须把价格提高才行,这对石油价格造成了上行压力。 02 今年3月,在美国政府批准了4.8万亿美元的刺激支出后,我就已经对美元贬值的可能性发出了警告。当这种情况发生时,其它产油国就会面临更大的压力,以更高的价格出售石油,因为它们希望在将石油价格转换为本国货币后保持其价值。 石油不仅仅是一种在交易所交易的投机性商品。它也是实实在在的商品。到2022年,石油生产商将需要比以往任何时候都高的价格,才能达到以前的价值。 随着2021年的结束和2022年的开始,疫情和相关限制措施对经济的影响仍然充满不确定性。人们担心奥密克戎病毒的威胁,担心可能会继续增加旅行限制,担心美国主要大学的关闭,以及欧洲各地的**活动。 一些分析师警告称,油价可能会跌回每桶50美元或40美元,尤其是在11月底的黑色星期五出现大","listText":"01 随着年底的临近,通货膨胀成为全球经济最大和最直接的问题之一。 尽管疫情相关问题仍然是石油市场上的热门话题,但对交易员来说,了解通胀将如何影响油价或许更为重要。 WTI原油期货周线图,来源:Investing.com 尽管由于奥密克戎病毒的传播导致新冠病例再次增加,并且它对经济和旅游的冲击较大,但是通胀可能抵消油价的上涨,甚至可能占据主导地位。 最新的消费者价格指数(CPI)显示,美国2021年的通货膨胀率为6.8%,是1982年6月以来的新高。而生产者价格指数(PPI)的增长率甚至更高,达到9.6%。 (美国未季调居民消费价格指数(CPI)年率,来自Investing.com“财经日历”) 持续上涨的通货膨胀越来越令人感到担忧,就连美联储也改变了对通胀的态度,它在周四宣布计划在2022年加息。 当通货膨胀上升时,油价就会相应上升。石油生产商正面临着从劳动力到运输到零部件等各个方面的成本上升; 此外,他们出售石油得到的美元价值也下降了。 因此,他们必须把价格提高才行,这对石油价格造成了上行压力。 02 今年3月,在美国政府批准了4.8万亿美元的刺激支出后,我就已经对美元贬值的可能性发出了警告。当这种情况发生时,其它产油国就会面临更大的压力,以更高的价格出售石油,因为它们希望在将石油价格转换为本国货币后保持其价值。 石油不仅仅是一种在交易所交易的投机性商品。它也是实实在在的商品。到2022年,石油生产商将需要比以往任何时候都高的价格,才能达到以前的价值。 随着2021年的结束和2022年的开始,疫情和相关限制措施对经济的影响仍然充满不确定性。人们担心奥密克戎病毒的威胁,担心可能会继续增加旅行限制,担心美国主要大学的关闭,以及欧洲各地的**活动。 一些分析师警告称,油价可能会跌回每桶50美元或40美元,尤其是在11月底的黑色星期五出现大","text":"01 随着年底的临近,通货膨胀成为全球经济最大和最直接的问题之一。 尽管疫情相关问题仍然是石油市场上的热门话题,但对交易员来说,了解通胀将如何影响油价或许更为重要。 WTI原油期货周线图,来源:Investing.com 尽管由于奥密克戎病毒的传播导致新冠病例再次增加,并且它对经济和旅游的冲击较大,但是通胀可能抵消油价的上涨,甚至可能占据主导地位。 最新的消费者价格指数(CPI)显示,美国2021年的通货膨胀率为6.8%,是1982年6月以来的新高。而生产者价格指数(PPI)的增长率甚至更高,达到9.6%。 (美国未季调居民消费价格指数(CPI)年率,来自Investing.com“财经日历”) 持续上涨的通货膨胀越来越令人感到担忧,就连美联储也改变了对通胀的态度,它在周四宣布计划在2022年加息。 当通货膨胀上升时,油价就会相应上升。石油生产商正面临着从劳动力到运输到零部件等各个方面的成本上升; 此外,他们出售石油得到的美元价值也下降了。 因此,他们必须把价格提高才行,这对石油价格造成了上行压力。 02 今年3月,在美国政府批准了4.8万亿美元的刺激支出后,我就已经对美元贬值的可能性发出了警告。当这种情况发生时,其它产油国就会面临更大的压力,以更高的价格出售石油,因为它们希望在将石油价格转换为本国货币后保持其价值。 石油不仅仅是一种在交易所交易的投机性商品。它也是实实在在的商品。到2022年,石油生产商将需要比以往任何时候都高的价格,才能达到以前的价值。 随着2021年的结束和2022年的开始,疫情和相关限制措施对经济的影响仍然充满不确定性。人们担心奥密克戎病毒的威胁,担心可能会继续增加旅行限制,担心美国主要大学的关闭,以及欧洲各地的**活动。 一些分析师警告称,油价可能会跌回每桶50美元或40美元,尤其是在11月底的黑色星期五出现大","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c1b9a03a1a4b23a2fe28c04f513b20","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699249566","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":892440396,"gmtCreate":1628686285615,"gmtModify":1628686487499,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892440396","repostId":"892641918","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":892641918,"gmtCreate":1628594340000,"gmtModify":1628660331151,"author":{"id":"3489725211341675","authorId":"3489725211341675","name":"英为财情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/90beb74040cb78811d8df6ccd44be346","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"美国7月非农竟“造假”????","htmlText":"此前,随着美国的通胀数据的爆表,美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”,美国未来通胀会下滑,美联储还不到加息的时候。 美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示,美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调,美国经济要想在稳定物价和充分就业方面取得实质性进展还有很长的路要走。 只有美国就业市场 “取得一些进展”,才可能改变宽松的货币政策并开启缩减资产购买规模。 一时间,就业状况成了美联储的“遮羞布”。 01.美联储的“遮羞布”遮不住了 上周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示,美国7月非农就业岗位增加94.3万个,创2020年8月以来的最大增幅,失业率降至5.4%,为16个月最低。 5月和6月的数据均被修正,显示新增就业岗位数比之前报告的多11.9万个。 劳动参与率从6月的61.6%提高到61.7%。7月平均时薪增长0.4%,同比上涨4.0%。许多经济学家认为今年美国经济将录得近40年来最强劲增长。 如此强劲的非农就业数据令市场大为振奋,美联储或再无鸽派的理由,市场预期缩减购债规模的时间表将在本月杰克逊霍尔的会议或者9月的利率会议上发布。 02.美联储官员也纷纷发表鹰派的言论 亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示,美国经济改善速度比预期更快,美联储正在快速接近开始削减购债规模的时点,通胀已经达到了满足开始加息的一个关键标准。 博斯蒂克称,他预计在第四季开始缩减购债规模,但如果就业市场保持近期的强劲增长步伐,他对更早开始缩减购债持开放态度。 波士顿联储总裁罗森格伦表示,美联储可能比这更早地开始撤走支持措施。 里奇蒙联储总裁巴尔金表示,今年的高通胀可能已经满足了美联储加息的一个标准,不过在加息之前,就业市场仍需进一步恢复。 虽然这几位官员整体偏鹰派,但是还是有部分官员同鲍威尔的观点一致,认为就业市场需进一步恢复,难道如此强劲的非农就业报告还不够吗? 03.真实的美国就业状况 周一美国公布的数据显示,6月JOLTS职位空","listText":"此前,随着美国的通胀数据的爆表,美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”,美国未来通胀会下滑,美联储还不到加息的时候。 美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示,美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调,美国经济要想在稳定物价和充分就业方面取得实质性进展还有很长的路要走。 只有美国就业市场 “取得一些进展”,才可能改变宽松的货币政策并开启缩减资产购买规模。 一时间,就业状况成了美联储的“遮羞布”。 01.美联储的“遮羞布”遮不住了 上周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示,美国7月非农就业岗位增加94.3万个,创2020年8月以来的最大增幅,失业率降至5.4%,为16个月最低。 5月和6月的数据均被修正,显示新增就业岗位数比之前报告的多11.9万个。 劳动参与率从6月的61.6%提高到61.7%。7月平均时薪增长0.4%,同比上涨4.0%。许多经济学家认为今年美国经济将录得近40年来最强劲增长。 如此强劲的非农就业数据令市场大为振奋,美联储或再无鸽派的理由,市场预期缩减购债规模的时间表将在本月杰克逊霍尔的会议或者9月的利率会议上发布。 02.美联储官员也纷纷发表鹰派的言论 亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示,美国经济改善速度比预期更快,美联储正在快速接近开始削减购债规模的时点,通胀已经达到了满足开始加息的一个关键标准。 博斯蒂克称,他预计在第四季开始缩减购债规模,但如果就业市场保持近期的强劲增长步伐,他对更早开始缩减购债持开放态度。 波士顿联储总裁罗森格伦表示,美联储可能比这更早地开始撤走支持措施。 里奇蒙联储总裁巴尔金表示,今年的高通胀可能已经满足了美联储加息的一个标准,不过在加息之前,就业市场仍需进一步恢复。 虽然这几位官员整体偏鹰派,但是还是有部分官员同鲍威尔的观点一致,认为就业市场需进一步恢复,难道如此强劲的非农就业报告还不够吗? 03.真实的美国就业状况 周一美国公布的数据显示,6月JOLTS职位空","text":"此前,随着美国的通胀数据的爆表,美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”,美国未来通胀会下滑,美联储还不到加息的时候。 美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示,美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调,美国经济要想在稳定物价和充分就业方面取得实质性进展还有很长的路要走。 只有美国就业市场 “取得一些进展”,才可能改变宽松的货币政策并开启缩减资产购买规模。 一时间,就业状况成了美联储的“遮羞布”。 01.美联储的“遮羞布”遮不住了 上周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示,美国7月非农就业岗位增加94.3万个,创2020年8月以来的最大增幅,失业率降至5.4%,为16个月最低。 5月和6月的数据均被修正,显示新增就业岗位数比之前报告的多11.9万个。 劳动参与率从6月的61.6%提高到61.7%。7月平均时薪增长0.4%,同比上涨4.0%。许多经济学家认为今年美国经济将录得近40年来最强劲增长。 如此强劲的非农就业数据令市场大为振奋,美联储或再无鸽派的理由,市场预期缩减购债规模的时间表将在本月杰克逊霍尔的会议或者9月的利率会议上发布。 02.美联储官员也纷纷发表鹰派的言论 亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示,美国经济改善速度比预期更快,美联储正在快速接近开始削减购债规模的时点,通胀已经达到了满足开始加息的一个关键标准。 博斯蒂克称,他预计在第四季开始缩减购债规模,但如果就业市场保持近期的强劲增长步伐,他对更早开始缩减购债持开放态度。 波士顿联储总裁罗森格伦表示,美联储可能比这更早地开始撤走支持措施。 里奇蒙联储总裁巴尔金表示,今年的高通胀可能已经满足了美联储加息的一个标准,不过在加息之前,就业市场仍需进一步恢复。 虽然这几位官员整体偏鹰派,但是还是有部分官员同鲍威尔的观点一致,认为就业市场需进一步恢复,难道如此强劲的非农就业报告还不够吗? 03.真实的美国就业状况 周一美国公布的数据显示,6月JOLTS职位空","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b34eac3fa5544069f87333378bea87a","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892641918","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}