夏道休_2947的个人主页 - 老虎社区

夏道休_2947

夏道休_2947

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IP属地：浙江

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07-10

别人涨的时候你不涨，别人跌的时候你特么脸都不要了，一泻千里，艹

Hoshine Silicon Says Lower Revenue in Silicon Businesses Major Factor in Sharp Dip in 2025 Revenue; Shares Down 4%<blockquote>合盛硅业表示，硅业务收入下降是2025年收入大幅下降的主要因素；股价下跌 4%</blockquote>

07-07

中国股市没希望了

A股主要指数再度拉升，此前均一度转跌。创业板指涨1%，深证成指涨0.95%，沪指涨0.36%，培育钻石、钛白粉概念、黄金

2025-12-11

破市场，倒闭吧，喝血

2025-12-11

$上证指数(000001.SH)$

2025-12-11

A股市场对散户没有任何机会

2025-10-31

这股市对散户来说，坑到老祖宗那了，散户真是血液

2025-09-17

$合盛硅业(603260)$ 这个垃圾股

2025-09-02

$上证指数(000001.SH)$ 股市就这样迎接9.3的？

2025-03-28

赢个嘚

2025-01-13

趋势不变一点错没有，永远向下，曹泥马

上证指数创本轮调整新低 A股市场中长期向上趋势不变

2024-11-27

🦐🚗🥚，你TM是第一名

@果子哥家老汉:$上证指数(000001.SH)$ 到底了，可以逐步建仓了，这波预计持续到2月底。会涨到3631点左右。$道琼斯(.DJI)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $恒生指数(HSI)$

2024-11-19

$上证指数(000001.SH)$ A股已经没希望了，过去是，现在是，未来更是。。。全球最拉，没有之一，远离A股，方可上岸

2024-01-09

曾经我也相信有行情，怎奈村里吃人不带吐骨头

“铁口”李蓓：未来中国股市或有“二十年一遇”行情

2023-12-14

全球新高，大A新低，屁民都洗洗睡吧

李蓓“新鲜”发声：明年美国或会衰退，坚定持有人民币资产

2023-05-26

$创业板指(399006)$

2023-03-24

$上证指数(000001.SH)$

2023-03-08

$上证指数(000001.SH)$

2023-03-08

$创业板指(399006)$

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Shares Down 4%<blockquote>合盛硅业表示，硅业务收入下降是2025年收入大幅下降的主要因素；股价下跌 4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092851196\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3002d84abbd5ace3c99397c7f95b8d4e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">MT Newswires Live </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-07-06 14:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603260\">Hoshine Silicon</a> Industry (SHA:603260) said lower revenue from the industrial silicon and silicone businesses was a major factor behind the significant decline in its operating revenue in 2025, according to a Saturday filing with the Shanghai bourse.</p><p><blockquote><html><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603260\">星盛硅</a>Industry (SHA:603260) 周六向上海证券交易所提交的文件显示，工业硅和有机硅业务收入下降是其 2025 年营业收入大幅下降的主要因素。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>The silicon-based materials maker's shares dropped 4% in recent trade.</p><p><blockquote>这家硅基材料制造商的股价在最近的交易中下跌了4%。</blockquote></p><p>The company made the explanation in response to an inquiry from the Shanghai Stock Exchange seeking details on the factors behind the sharp decline in its 2025 results.</p><p><blockquote>该公司是在回应上海证券交易所的问询时做出这一解释的，该问询旨在了解其2025年业绩大幅下滑背后的因素。</blockquote></p><p>The attributable net loss during the fourth quarter of 2025 was 2.67 billion yuan, accounting for 89.2% of the company's full-year loss of 2.99 billion yuan, which was the company's first annual loss since its listing. Operating revenue for the year dropped 23% to 20.5 billion yuan.</p><p><blockquote>2025年第四季度归属净亏损26.7亿元，占公司全年亏损29.9亿元的89.2%，为公司上市以来首次出现年度亏损。全年营业收入下降23%至205亿元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"603260":"合盛硅业","BK0229":"化学制品","BK0185":"二线龙头"},"source_url":"https://www.mtnewswires.com/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2649646993","content_text":"Hoshine Silicon Industry (SHA:603260) said lower revenue from the industrial silicon and silicone businesses was a major factor behind the significant decline in its operating revenue in 2025, according to a Saturday filing with the Shanghai bourse.The silicon-based materials maker's shares dropped 4% in recent trade.The company made the explanation in response to an inquiry from the Shanghai Stock Exchange seeking details on the factors behind the sharp decline in its 2025 results.The attributable net loss during the fourth quarter of 2025 was 2.67 billion yuan, accounting for 89.2% of the company's full-year loss of 2.99 billion yuan, which was the company's first annual loss since its listing. 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yuan.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"603260":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":583164570923136,"gmtCreate":1783405697118,"gmtModify":1783405698854,"author":{"id":"3506295545546950","authorId":"3506295545546950","name":"夏道休_2947","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e7cc4bb8e889742f10e6a6affea8c3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3506295545546950","idStr":"3506295545546950"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"中国股市没希望了","listText":"中国股市没希望了","text":"中国股市没希望了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/583164570923136","repostId":"2649583617","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2649583617","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1783302659,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2649583617?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-06 09:50","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"A股主要指数再度拉升，此前均一度转跌。创业板指涨1%，深证成指涨0.95%，沪指涨0.36%，培育钻石、钛白粉概念、黄金","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2649583617","media":"格隆汇","summary":"A股主要指数再度拉升，此前均一度转跌。创业板指涨1%，深证成指涨0.95%，沪指涨0.36%，培育钻石、钛白粉概念、黄金概念涨幅居前。","content":"<html><body><p>A股主要指数再度拉升，此前均一度转跌。创业板指涨1%，深证成指涨0.95%，沪指涨0.36%，培育钻石、钛白粉概念、黄金概念涨幅居前。</p></body></html>","source":"live_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A股主要指数再度拉升，此前均一度转跌。创业板指涨1%，深证成指涨0.95%，沪指涨0.36%，培育钻石、钛白粉概念、黄金</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159831":"黄金","159967":"创成长","159982":"中证500","399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","399300":"沪深300","510880":"红利ETF华泰柏瑞","512510":"中证500ETF华泰柏瑞","BEGS":"RAREVIEW 2X BULL CRYPTOCURRENCY & PRECIOUS METALS ETF","BAR":"GraniteShares Gold Shares","FAAR":"First Trust Alternative Absolute Return Strategy ETF","000688.SH":"科创50","000001.SH":"上证指数","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","GOAU":"U.S. Global GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF","JDST":"金矿指数二倍做空ETF","FGDL":"FRANKLIN RESPONSIBLY SOURCED GOLD ETF","SGOL":"Abrdn Gold ETF Trust","GDXD":"MicroSectors Gold Miners -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN","DULL":"MICROSECTORS GOLD -3X INVERSE LEVERAGED ETN","USG":"USCF Gold Strategy Plus Income Fund","GDXJ":"小型黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)","PALL":"abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF","PHYS":"Sprott Physical Gold Trust","UYM":"基础材料指数ETF-ProShares两倍做多","GDXU":"MicroSectors 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19:34","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"上证指数创本轮调整新低 A股市场中长期向上趋势不变","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2502870707","media":"中证网","summary":"1月10日，A股市场震荡下跌，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指均跌逾1%，上证指数跌破3200点，创下本轮调整新低，创业板指跌破2000点。本周，A股市场连续震荡，日均成交额较上周缩量，其中1月6日成交额创逾3个月新低。Wind数据显示，截至1月9日，A股市场融资余额报18167.38亿元，本周前4个交易日合计减少126.33亿元。自2024年9月25日以来，A股市场已连续72个交易日成交额超1万亿元，继续刷新A股市场纪录。","content":"<html><body><article><p>1月10日，A股市场震荡下跌，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指均跌逾1%，上证指数<span>跌破</span>3200点，创下本轮调整新低，创业板指跌破2000点。整个A股市场超4800只股票下跌，逾50只股票跌停，A股市场成交额为1.16万亿元。</p><p>本周，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指分别累计下跌1.34%、1.02%、2.02%，综合、家用电器、有色金属行业领涨，题材板块轮动，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>板块表现抢眼。资金面上，Wind数据显示，本周沪深两市主力资金有4个交易日出现净流出，资金情绪谨慎。</p><p>分析人士认为，政策发力依然是A股市场重要的支撑因素，本轮下行幅度已超过历史均值，市场情绪和部分估值指标已回到历史低位水平，市场性价比进一步凸显。对后市并不悲观，在政策呵护下静待反弹行情逐步兑现。</p><p><strong>机器人板块表现活跃</strong></p><p>Wind数据显示，截至1月10日收盘，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指、科创50指数、北证50指数分别下跌1.33%、1.80%、1.76%、1.13%、2.78%，上证指数报收3168.52点，创业板指报收1975.30点。小微盘股明显调整，中证1000指数跌逾2%，中证2000指数、万得微盘股指数均跌逾3%。</p><p>1月10日，A股市场成交额为1.16万亿元，较前一个交易日增加335亿元，其中沪市成交额为4659.39亿元，深市成交额为6823.35亿元。</p><p>从盘面上看，GPU、PEEK材料、宇树机器人等板块活跃，家纺、冰雪旅游、首发经济等板块显著调整。申万一级行业全线下跌，商贸零售、通信、社会服务行业跌幅居前，分别下跌4.22%、3.50%、3.24%。</p><p>从表现活跃的GPU板块来看，1月10日，Wind GPU指数上涨0.88%，板块内<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600584\">长电科技</a>涨逾6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688256\">寒武纪</a>-U、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">中芯国际</a>均涨逾2%。盘中Wind GPU指数一度涨逾5%，长电科技一度涨停，寒武纪-U一度涨逾9%，股价创历史新高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>一度涨逾5%。与人形机器人相关的PEEK材料板块盘中一度涨逾5%，宇树机器人板块盘中一度涨逾4%。</p><p>本周，A股市场连续震荡，日均成交额较上周缩量，其中1月6日成交额创逾3个月新低。申万一级行业板块中，综合、家用电器、有色金属行业领涨，分别上涨2.09%、2.09%、2%。科技相关概念板块走强，高频PCB、PEEK材料、人形机器人等概念板块爆发。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002926\">华西证券</a>电力设备与新能源行业首席分析师杨睿认为，在AI技术取得突破以及国内政策引导下，人形机器人产业化有望加速；同时，在降本需求驱动下，人形机器人各零部件的国产化率有较大提升空间，有望推动国内相关优质厂商进行技术升级，率先取得突破的企业有望受益。</p><p><strong>部分科技股受资金关注</strong></p><p>从资金面来看，随着A股市场连日震荡，资金情绪持续保持谨慎。</p><p>Wind数据显示，1月10日，沪深两市主力资金净流出392.23亿元，其中沪深300主力资金净流出100.78亿元。沪深两市出现主力资金净流入的股票数为1742只，出现主力资金净流出的股票数为3369只。</p><p>行业板块方面，1月10日，申万一级行业中仅有有色金属行业出现主力资金净流入，净流入金额为0.19亿元。其他行业均出现主力资金净流出，电子、计算机、通信行业主力资金净流出金额居前，分别为54.06亿元、48.90亿元、39.28亿元。</p><p>个股方面，1月10日，长电科技、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002050\">三花智控</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002265\">建设工业</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002122\">汇洲智能</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300100\">双林股份</a>主力资金净流入金额居前，分别为11.80亿元、4.99亿元、4.85亿元、3.73亿元、3.49亿元。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">东方财富</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002131\">利欧股份</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603019\">中科曙光</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300308\">中际旭创</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/001391\">国货航</a>主力资金净流出金额居前，分别为7.54亿元、7.49亿元、6.96亿元、6.05亿元、5.31亿元。</p><p>本周5个交易日，除1月7日沪深两市主力资金净流入107.05亿元外，其他4个交易日均出现净流出。本周申万一级行业中仅有家用电器、有色金属行业出现主力资金净流入，净流入均超1亿元，计算机、医药生物、电力设备行业主力资金净流出金额居前。个股方面，本周三花智控、长电科技、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600601\">方正科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603986\">兆易创新</a>主力资金净流入金额居前，分别为13.16亿元、12.38亿元、8.13亿元、7.94亿元，可以看到，本周部分科技股吸引资金关注。</p><p>此外，随着市场震荡，市场融资资金并未出现大的变化。Wind数据显示，截至1月9日，A股市场融资余额报18167.38亿元，本周前4个交易日合计减少126.33亿元。</p><p>“开年以来，股市表现偏弱，成交持续缩量，反映了多数资金对后市持观望态度。”星石投资副总经理兼首席策略投资官方磊表示，短期市场受信息和交易层面的影响可能会放大。</p><p><strong>A股市场性价比凸显</strong></p><p>Wind数据显示，截至10日收盘，万得全A滚动市盈率为17.50倍，沪深300滚动市盈率为12.26倍，A股市场估值具有一定吸引力。自2024年9月25日以来，A股市场已连续72个交易日成交额超1万亿元，继续刷新A股市场纪录。</p><p>对于A股市场，方磊认为，从中期角度来看，虽然海外具有不确定性因素，但国内情况是股票市场更为重要的基本盘，对未来半年的股票市场持较乐观态度。随着国内政策预期更加明确，市场对不确定性的担忧或有所下降，股市有望逐渐走出基本面行情。</p><p>“调整后反弹行情演绎空间增加是确定的，不确定的是短期调整加速，微观结构问题仍突出，幅度上可能超调。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">申万宏源</a>研究A股策略首席分析师傅静涛表示，政策发力依然是A股市场重要的支撑因素。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">国信证券</a>策略首席分析师王开表示，虽然外部冲击对股市表现短期内有一定拖累，但货币和<span>财政政策</span>双重发力，“适度宽松的<span>货币政策</span>”和“更加积极的财政政策”组合拳，为股市奠定稳健向上的基调。此外，促进消费和内需改善政策的传导呵护，有望在根本上提振股市盈利中枢，改善价格低迷现状，逆周期调节工具对外部压力也能实现很好的平滑对冲。因此，对后市并不悲观，在政策呵护下静待反弹行情逐步兑现。</p><p>“市场在快速下行后，往往会优先企稳，本轮下行幅度已超过历史均值。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601456\">国联证券</a>首席策略分析师包承超表示，市场情绪和部分估值指标已回到历史低位水平，权益市场的性价比进一步凸显。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>上证指数创本轮调整新低 A股市场中长期向上趋势不变</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n上证指数创本轮调整新低 A股市场中长期向上趋势不变\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-11 19:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025011119443496003c6a&s=b><strong>中证网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1月10日，A股市场震荡下跌，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指均跌逾1%，上证指数跌破3200点，创下本轮调整新低，创业板指跌破2000点。整个A股市场超4800只股票下跌，逾50只股票跌停，A股市场成交额为1.16万亿元。本周，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指分别累计下跌1.34%、1.02%、2.02%，综合、家用电器、有色金属行业领涨，题材板块轮动，机器人板块表现抢眼。资金面上，Wind数据显示，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025011119443496003c6a&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159982":"中证500","399001":"深证成指","399300":"沪深300","000001.SH":"上证指数","LU1993786604.SGD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV ALL CHINA \"P\" (SGD) ACC","LU1807302812.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV ALL CHINA \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK0187":"一线龙头","BK0028":"国家队","LU0501845795.SGD":"瑞银大中华区股票基金P Acc SGD","LU0067412154.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1655091616.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - China A-Share Opportunities A (acc) SGD","LU0072913022.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  GREATER CHINA \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK0278":"货币金融","LU1226287529.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELECTION SICAV - CHINA ALLOCATION  OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0880133367.SGD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND CHINA OPPORTUNITY USD \"P\" (SGD) ACC","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","000001":"平安银行","BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK0201":"可转债","BK0188":"融资融券","BK0012":"证金概念"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025011119443496003c6a&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2502870707","content_text":"1月10日，A股市场震荡下跌，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指均跌逾1%，上证指数跌破3200点，创下本轮调整新低，创业板指跌破2000点。整个A股市场超4800只股票下跌，逾50只股票跌停，A股市场成交额为1.16万亿元。本周，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指分别累计下跌1.34%、1.02%、2.02%，综合、家用电器、有色金属行业领涨，题材板块轮动，机器人板块表现抢眼。资金面上，Wind数据显示，本周沪深两市主力资金有4个交易日出现净流出，资金情绪谨慎。分析人士认为，政策发力依然是A股市场重要的支撑因素，本轮下行幅度已超过历史均值，市场情绪和部分估值指标已回到历史低位水平，市场性价比进一步凸显。对后市并不悲观，在政策呵护下静待反弹行情逐步兑现。机器人板块表现活跃Wind数据显示，截至1月10日收盘，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指、科创50指数、北证50指数分别下跌1.33%、1.80%、1.76%、1.13%、2.78%，上证指数报收3168.52点，创业板指报收1975.30点。小微盘股明显调整，中证1000指数跌逾2%，中证2000指数、万得微盘股指数均跌逾3%。1月10日，A股市场成交额为1.16万亿元，较前一个交易日增加335亿元，其中沪市成交额为4659.39亿元，深市成交额为6823.35亿元。从盘面上看，GPU、PEEK材料、宇树机器人等板块活跃，家纺、冰雪旅游、首发经济等板块显著调整。申万一级行业全线下跌，商贸零售、通信、社会服务行业跌幅居前，分别下跌4.22%、3.50%、3.24%。从表现活跃的GPU板块来看，1月10日，Wind GPU指数上涨0.88%，板块内长电科技涨逾6%，寒武纪-U、中芯国际均涨逾2%。盘中Wind GPU指数一度涨逾5%，长电科技一度涨停，寒武纪-U一度涨逾9%，股价创历史新高，中芯国际一度涨逾5%。与人形机器人相关的PEEK材料板块盘中一度涨逾5%，宇树机器人板块盘中一度涨逾4%。本周，A股市场连续震荡，日均成交额较上周缩量，其中1月6日成交额创逾3个月新低。申万一级行业板块中，综合、家用电器、有色金属行业领涨，分别上涨2.09%、2.09%、2%。科技相关概念板块走强，高频PCB、PEEK材料、人形机器人等概念板块爆发。华西证券电力设备与新能源行业首席分析师杨睿认为，在AI技术取得突破以及国内政策引导下，人形机器人产业化有望加速；同时，在降本需求驱动下，人形机器人各零部件的国产化率有较大提升空间，有望推动国内相关优质厂商进行技术升级，率先取得突破的企业有望受益。部分科技股受资金关注从资金面来看，随着A股市场连日震荡，资金情绪持续保持谨慎。Wind数据显示，1月10日，沪深两市主力资金净流出392.23亿元，其中沪深300主力资金净流出100.78亿元。沪深两市出现主力资金净流入的股票数为1742只，出现主力资金净流出的股票数为3369只。行业板块方面，1月10日，申万一级行业中仅有有色金属行业出现主力资金净流入，净流入金额为0.19亿元。其他行业均出现主力资金净流出，电子、计算机、通信行业主力资金净流出金额居前，分别为54.06亿元、48.90亿元、39.28亿元。个股方面，1月10日，长电科技、三花智控、建设工业、汇洲智能、双林股份主力资金净流入金额居前，分别为11.80亿元、4.99亿元、4.85亿元、3.73亿元、3.49亿元。东方财富、利欧股份、中科曙光、中际旭创、国货航主力资金净流出金额居前，分别为7.54亿元、7.49亿元、6.96亿元、6.05亿元、5.31亿元。本周5个交易日，除1月7日沪深两市主力资金净流入107.05亿元外，其他4个交易日均出现净流出。本周申万一级行业中仅有家用电器、有色金属行业出现主力资金净流入，净流入均超1亿元，计算机、医药生物、电力设备行业主力资金净流出金额居前。个股方面，本周三花智控、长电科技、方正科技、兆易创新主力资金净流入金额居前，分别为13.16亿元、12.38亿元、8.13亿元、7.94亿元，可以看到，本周部分科技股吸引资金关注。此外，随着市场震荡，市场融资资金并未出现大的变化。Wind数据显示，截至1月9日，A股市场融资余额报18167.38亿元，本周前4个交易日合计减少126.33亿元。“开年以来，股市表现偏弱，成交持续缩量，反映了多数资金对后市持观望态度。”星石投资副总经理兼首席策略投资官方磊表示，短期市场受信息和交易层面的影响可能会放大。A股市场性价比凸显Wind数据显示，截至10日收盘，万得全A滚动市盈率为17.50倍，沪深300滚动市盈率为12.26倍，A股市场估值具有一定吸引力。自2024年9月25日以来，A股市场已连续72个交易日成交额超1万亿元，继续刷新A股市场纪录。对于A股市场，方磊认为，从中期角度来看，虽然海外具有不确定性因素，但国内情况是股票市场更为重要的基本盘，对未来半年的股票市场持较乐观态度。随着国内政策预期更加明确，市场对不确定性的担忧或有所下降，股市有望逐渐走出基本面行情。“调整后反弹行情演绎空间增加是确定的，不确定的是短期调整加速，微观结构问题仍突出，幅度上可能超调。”申万宏源研究A股策略首席分析师傅静涛表示，政策发力依然是A股市场重要的支撑因素。国信证券策略首席分析师王开表示，虽然外部冲击对股市表现短期内有一定拖累，但货币和财政政策双重发力，“适度宽松的货币政策”和“更加积极的财政政策”组合拳，为股市奠定稳健向上的基调。此外，促进消费和内需改善政策的传导呵护，有望在根本上提振股市盈利中枢，改善价格低迷现状，逆周期调节工具对外部压力也能实现很好的平滑对冲。因此，对后市并不悲观，在政策呵护下静待反弹行情逐步兑现。“市场在快速下行后，往往会优先企稳，本轮下行幅度已超过历史均值。”国联证券首席策略分析师包承超表示，市场情绪和部分估值指标已回到历史低位水平，权益市场的性价比进一步凸显。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159982":1,"399001":1,"399300":1,"000001.SH":1,"000001":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":375486628454576,"gmtCreate":1732675136498,"gmtModify":1732675578128,"author":{"id":"3506295545546950","authorId":"3506295545546950","name":"夏道休_2947","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e7cc4bb8e889742f10e6a6affea8c3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3506295545546950","idStr":"3506295545546950"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🦐🚗🥚，你TM是第一名","listText":"🦐🚗🥚，你TM是第一名","text":"🦐🚗🥚，你TM是第一名","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375486628454576","repostId":"375167663444408","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":375167663444408,"gmtCreate":1732635866941,"gmtModify":1732636225060,"author":{"id":"38637229394370","authorId":"38637229394370","name":"果子哥家老汉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12d5c82e54917164a75cf6baa009bf55","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"38637229394370","idStr":"38637229394370"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$ </a> 到底了，可以逐步建仓了，这波预计持续到2月底。会涨到3631点左右。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$ </a> 到底了，可以逐步建仓了，这波预计持续到2月底。会涨到3631点左右。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$ 到底了，可以逐步建仓了，这波预计持续到2月底。会涨到3631点左右。$道琼斯(.DJI)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $恒生指数(HSI)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0944f2a8173e419d018470589d69be83","width":"720","height":"1289"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375167663444408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":372680938340464,"gmtCreate":1731996080663,"gmtModify":1731996082246,"author":{"id":"3506295545546950","authorId":"3506295545546950","name":"夏道休_2947","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e7cc4bb8e889742f10e6a6affea8c3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3506295545546950","idStr":"3506295545546950"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$&nbsp;</a>A股已经没希望了，过去是，现在是，未来更是。。。全球最拉，没有之一，远离A股，方可上岸","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$&nbsp;</a>A股已经没希望了，过去是，现在是，未来更是。。。全球最拉，没有之一，远离A股，方可上岸","text":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$ A股已经没希望了，过去是，现在是，未来更是。。。全球最拉，没有之一，远离A股，方可上岸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372680938340464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":261194555605184,"gmtCreate":1704778387812,"gmtModify":1704778389356,"author":{"id":"3506295545546950","authorId":"3506295545546950","name":"夏道休_2947","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e7cc4bb8e889742f10e6a6affea8c3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3506295545546950","idStr":"3506295545546950"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"曾经我也相信有行情，怎奈村里吃人不带吐骨头","listText":"曾经我也相信有行情，怎奈村里吃人不带吐骨头","text":"曾经我也相信有行情，怎奈村里吃人不带吐骨头","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/261194555605184","repostId":"2401840984","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2401840984","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1704707414,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2401840984?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-01-08 17:50","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"“铁口”李蓓：未来中国股市或有“二十年一遇”行情","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2401840984","media":"wallstreet","summary":"去年最后一个月净值继续回落。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>去年最后一个月净值继续回落。</p></blockquote><p>净值继续跌，而她继续看好。</p><p>这可能就是李蓓吧。</p><p>1月8日，市场流传出李蓓的一份最新基金月报（2023年12月月报）。</p><p>这是半夏旗下“低波动”系列产品的月报，在月报中，基金经理复盘了过去一个月的操作，并再次重申牛市观点：</p><p>当前是中长期和中短期共振的底部，而不仅仅是小周期底部；</p><p>将来的这一轮中国股市牛市行情的级别，是会超过过去的2-3轮小牛市的。</p><p>（将来的股市行情）大概率超越5年一遇的级别，可能是10年甚至20年一遇的级别。</p><p>然而，在“大喊机会”的同时，李蓓的一只低波动主题（私募）基金在2023年录得近15个点的跌幅，更跑输了大盘指数。</p><p>这可能会让她有点烦心吧。</p><p><strong>2023年“受挫”</strong></p><p>根据业内流传的投资月报，一个隶属于半夏投资低波动系列的私募产品，在2023年实现-14.70%的年度收益，跑输沪深300指数约三个百分点。</p><p>这让半夏无法重复2022年的辉煌，相反在一批百亿私募同行中暂时排名居于中下游之列。</p><p>对于去年12月的操作，李蓓复盘称：<strong>权益类持仓跌幅则大于沪深300指数，一方面是期权权利金在指数低波动背景下面临时间价值的损失，一方面是个股持仓走势弱于沪深300。</strong></p><p>虽然业绩不理想，但李蓓依然信心满满：由于债券和商品市场都并没有大机会，我们把大部分的风险预算留给权益仓位。</p><p>她还指出：“政策沿着预期的方向和节奏循序渐进的落地，后续几个月的时间，效果会逐渐显现出来。资金流动是过去一段时间更主要的矛盾。”</p><p><strong>提及年初“黑天鹅”</strong></p><p>李蓓还提及了2024年开年的行情，并认为：年初市场出现了明显的下跌，尤其基金重仓股下跌惨烈。开年的戏剧一幕再一次提醒我们一个道理，世界充满了黑天鹅，不确定性始终存在。</p><p>但她认为市场出现了增量资金，有如下分析：</p><p>ETF净申购是12月最大的增量，对市场的稳定起了很大的托底作用。</p><p>其它类别的机构，无论私募，保险还是外资仓位，仓位出清的过程都基本完成，仓位的绝对水平都是历史低位。</p><p><strong>给出三点“提示”</strong></p><p>李蓓在月报中给投资人强调以下三点：</p><p><strong>其一，后续要继续规避公募集体超配的行业和个股。</strong>更本质的是：主动公募和主观私募所面临的资金流出趋势，在未来一年都很难逆转。</p><p><strong>其二，这一波公募的卖出降仓位结束后，市场上所有的存量投资者就都会完成仓位出清。</strong>所以虽然年初市场表现的确低于预期，但中期上涨的障碍进一步的扫清了。</p><p><strong>其三，保险资金的入场，是我们之前一直预期的2024年主要的资金增量。</strong>从开年的表现来看，基本上也可以确定这种趋势已经正在发生，保险偏好的高股息类公司，开年后的相对跑赢比之前更加地流畅。</p><p><strong>再提大牛市</strong></p><p>数月以来，李蓓非常坚定看好未来大牛市趋势。</p><p>她在此份月报中再次唱多，指出：当前是中长期和中短期共振的底部，而不仅仅是小周期底部，<strong>将来的这一轮中国股市牛市行情的级别，是会超过过去的2、3轮小牛市的，大概率超越5年一遇的级别，可能是10年甚至20年一遇的级别。</strong></p><p>她更把增量资金和市场演变的顺序，做了一番“演绎”：</p><blockquote><p>国家队托底，保险入市推动第一波触底回升；</p><p>基本面担忧缓解后，外资逆转，机构持续加仓引发第二波上涨；</p><p>赚钱效应引发存款搬家推动第三波泡沫化。</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“铁口”李蓓：未来中国股市或有“二十年一遇”行情\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-08 17:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3705875><strong>wallstreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>去年最后一个月净值继续回落。净值继续跌，而她继续看好。这可能就是李蓓吧。1月8日，市场流传出李蓓的一份最新基金月报（2023年12月月报）。这是半夏旗下“低波动”系列产品的月报，在月报中，基金经理复盘了过去一个月的操作，并再次重申牛市观点：当前是中长期和中短期共振的底部，而不仅仅是小周期底部；将来的这一轮中国股市牛市行情的级别，是会超过过去的2-3轮小牛市的。（将来的股市行情）大概率超越5年一遇的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3705875\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3705875","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2401840984","content_text":"去年最后一个月净值继续回落。净值继续跌，而她继续看好。这可能就是李蓓吧。1月8日，市场流传出李蓓的一份最新基金月报（2023年12月月报）。这是半夏旗下“低波动”系列产品的月报，在月报中，基金经理复盘了过去一个月的操作，并再次重申牛市观点：当前是中长期和中短期共振的底部，而不仅仅是小周期底部；将来的这一轮中国股市牛市行情的级别，是会超过过去的2-3轮小牛市的。（将来的股市行情）大概率超越5年一遇的级别，可能是10年甚至20年一遇的级别。然而，在“大喊机会”的同时，李蓓的一只低波动主题（私募）基金在2023年录得近15个点的跌幅，更跑输了大盘指数。这可能会让她有点烦心吧。2023年“受挫”根据业内流传的投资月报，一个隶属于半夏投资低波动系列的私募产品，在2023年实现-14.70%的年度收益，跑输沪深300指数约三个百分点。这让半夏无法重复2022年的辉煌，相反在一批百亿私募同行中暂时排名居于中下游之列。对于去年12月的操作，李蓓复盘称：权益类持仓跌幅则大于沪深300指数，一方面是期权权利金在指数低波动背景下面临时间价值的损失，一方面是个股持仓走势弱于沪深300。虽然业绩不理想，但李蓓依然信心满满：由于债券和商品市场都并没有大机会，我们把大部分的风险预算留给权益仓位。她还指出：“政策沿着预期的方向和节奏循序渐进的落地，后续几个月的时间，效果会逐渐显现出来。资金流动是过去一段时间更主要的矛盾。”提及年初“黑天鹅”李蓓还提及了2024年开年的行情，并认为：年初市场出现了明显的下跌，尤其基金重仓股下跌惨烈。开年的戏剧一幕再一次提醒我们一个道理，世界充满了黑天鹅，不确定性始终存在。但她认为市场出现了增量资金，有如下分析：ETF净申购是12月最大的增量，对市场的稳定起了很大的托底作用。其它类别的机构，无论私募，保险还是外资仓位，仓位出清的过程都基本完成，仓位的绝对水平都是历史低位。给出三点“提示”李蓓在月报中给投资人强调以下三点：其一，后续要继续规避公募集体超配的行业和个股。更本质的是：主动公募和主观私募所面临的资金流出趋势，在未来一年都很难逆转。其二，这一波公募的卖出降仓位结束后，市场上所有的存量投资者就都会完成仓位出清。所以虽然年初市场表现的确低于预期，但中期上涨的障碍进一步的扫清了。其三，保险资金的入场，是我们之前一直预期的2024年主要的资金增量。从开年的表现来看，基本上也可以确定这种趋势已经正在发生，保险偏好的高股息类公司，开年后的相对跑赢比之前更加地流畅。再提大牛市数月以来，李蓓非常坚定看好未来大牛市趋势。她在此份月报中再次唱多，指出：当前是中长期和中短期共振的底部，而不仅仅是小周期底部，将来的这一轮中国股市牛市行情的级别，是会超过过去的2、3轮小牛市的，大概率超越5年一遇的级别，可能是10年甚至20年一遇的级别。她更把增量资金和市场演变的顺序，做了一番“演绎”：国家队托底，保险入市推动第一波触底回升；基本面担忧缓解后，外资逆转，机构持续加仓引发第二波上涨；赚钱效应引发存款搬家推动第三波泡沫化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":1.1,"399006":1.1,"000001.SH":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":251826439348488,"gmtCreate":1702518343402,"gmtModify":1702519689581,"author":{"id":"3506295545546950","authorId":"3506295545546950","name":"夏道休_2947","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e7cc4bb8e889742f10e6a6affea8c3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3506295545546950","idStr":"3506295545546950"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"全球新高，大A新低，屁民都洗洗睡吧","listText":"全球新高，大A新低，屁民都洗洗睡吧","text":"全球新高，大A新低，屁民都洗洗睡吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/251826439348488","repostId":"2390346757","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2390346757","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1702359926,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2390346757?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-12-12 13:45","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"李蓓“新鲜”发声：明年美国或会衰退，坚定持有人民币资产","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2390346757","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"提醒部分投资者“踏空风险”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>12月12日上午，“私募魔女”李蓓现身一场高净值投资者论坛，公开与多位内资外资知名人士参加圆桌讨论会。</p><p>作为半夏投资的掌门人，李蓓再次唱多中国资产，并提示所谓市场的“一致预期”通常是错误的。</p><p>李蓓还提醒：持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。</p><p>她在这场圆桌会上发表哪些犀利观点？资事堂总结如下，以飨读者。</p><h2 id=\"id_3719791639\">市场“一致预期”是错的</h2><p>李蓓指出，一家海外知名机构做的投资者问卷调查显示，目前市场预期是做多大型美国科技股，并看空中国资产——这些交易显得非常“拥挤”。</p><p>然而，市场通常证明这种拥挤的交易，事后都是“屡试不爽”，且与预期相反。</p><p>她认为，如果投资者现在将资产转成美元资产，到了明年很可能被证明是错误的决策。</p><p>以2023年市场“一致预期”为例，预期差出现于财政政策走向的判断。</p><p>具体来说：8月以前美国财政是显著扩张的，而中国是财政显著收缩。其中，今年美国时薪增速是4%，居民可支配收入增配达到8%，税收优惠带来收入上涨。但这个趋势明年面临逆转，因为过去一个季度美国“半只脚”基本踏入衰退区域，这导致美国明年面临财政收缩的情景。</p><h2 id=\"id_1700695953\">小心“踏空风险”</h2><p>李蓓再次强调看多人民币风险资产的观点。同时，明年的宏观背景板上，美国将进入温和衰退，利率随之进一步下降。</p><p>基于此，持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。</p><h2 id=\"id_414897472\">大牛市和经济高增长未必同步</h2><p>很多投资者有一个认知误区，即经济高增长的前提下，才有权益资产牛市的出现。</p><p>李蓓指出，观察看全球经济周期和资本市场发展，低增长下的牛市并不罕见。</p><p>她举了两个例子：</p><blockquote><p>其一，1940年代末，美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的PE只有8倍，整个四十年代美国经历高增长，卖军火卖物资，最后才参战。到了50年代，高增长早已不在，但迎来了牛市。</p><p>其二，1970年代日本经历了产业升级和经济快速增长，但1980年时日本股市估值非常低，产业升级也结束，迎来了之后十年增速下台阶的宏观图景。然而，日本股票市场1980年代迎来大牛市。</p></blockquote><p>因此，并不一定是高增长才能带来大牛市。</p><p>未来我们会遇到资本市场重估带来的牛市，当投资人担忧逐渐减弱的时候，重估就会到来，而且经济进一步转型叠加利率下行，都会有利于牛市的演绎。</p><h2 id=\"id_2621002691\">如何防控风险 ？</h2><p>对于投资者规避风险的方法，李蓓有两点亲身经验。</p><p>其一，可以用期权工具。国内隐含波动15%以内，美国和中国香港市场都要超过30%，因此在A股可以用看涨期权进行表达，比如买入大盘股指数看涨期权。</p><p>其二，控制仓位。由于市场现在是左侧，需要防范净值大幅波动，等右侧机会来了再加仓。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>李蓓“新鲜”发声：明年美国或会衰退，坚定持有人民币资产</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n李蓓“新鲜”发声：明年美国或会衰退，坚定持有人民币资产\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-12 13:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704022><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12月12日上午，“私募魔女”李蓓现身一场高净值投资者论坛，公开与多位内资外资知名人士参加圆桌讨论会。作为半夏投资的掌门人，李蓓再次唱多中国资产，并提示所谓市场的“一致预期”通常是错误的。李蓓还提醒：持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。她在这场圆桌会上发表哪些犀利观点？资事堂总结如下，以飨读者。市场“一致预期”是错的李蓓指出，一家海外知名机构做的投资者问卷调查显示，目前市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704022\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c734b87f52be5f120b1c0c0583b68e11","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704022","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2390346757","content_text":"12月12日上午，“私募魔女”李蓓现身一场高净值投资者论坛，公开与多位内资外资知名人士参加圆桌讨论会。作为半夏投资的掌门人，李蓓再次唱多中国资产，并提示所谓市场的“一致预期”通常是错误的。李蓓还提醒：持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。她在这场圆桌会上发表哪些犀利观点？资事堂总结如下，以飨读者。市场“一致预期”是错的李蓓指出，一家海外知名机构做的投资者问卷调查显示，目前市场预期是做多大型美国科技股，并看空中国资产——这些交易显得非常“拥挤”。然而，市场通常证明这种拥挤的交易，事后都是“屡试不爽”，且与预期相反。她认为，如果投资者现在将资产转成美元资产，到了明年很可能被证明是错误的决策。以2023年市场“一致预期”为例，预期差出现于财政政策走向的判断。具体来说：8月以前美国财政是显著扩张的，而中国是财政显著收缩。其中，今年美国时薪增速是4%，居民可支配收入增配达到8%，税收优惠带来收入上涨。但这个趋势明年面临逆转，因为过去一个季度美国“半只脚”基本踏入衰退区域，这导致美国明年面临财政收缩的情景。小心“踏空风险”李蓓再次强调看多人民币风险资产的观点。同时，明年的宏观背景板上，美国将进入温和衰退，利率随之进一步下降。基于此，持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。大牛市和经济高增长未必同步很多投资者有一个认知误区，即经济高增长的前提下，才有权益资产牛市的出现。李蓓指出，观察看全球经济周期和资本市场发展，低增长下的牛市并不罕见。她举了两个例子：其一，1940年代末，美国标普500指数的PE只有8倍，整个四十年代美国经历高增长，卖军火卖物资，最后才参战。到了50年代，高增长早已不在，但迎来了牛市。其二，1970年代日本经历了产业升级和经济快速增长，但1980年时日本股市估值非常低，产业升级也结束，迎来了之后十年增速下台阶的宏观图景。然而，日本股票市场1980年代迎来大牛市。因此，并不一定是高增长才能带来大牛市。未来我们会遇到资本市场重估带来的牛市，当投资人担忧逐渐减弱的时候，重估就会到来，而且经济进一步转型叠加利率下行，都会有利于牛市的演绎。如何防控风险 ？对于投资者规避风险的方法，李蓓有两点亲身经验。其一，可以用期权工具。国内隐含波动15%以内，美国和中国香港市场都要超过30%，因此在A股可以用看涨期权进行表达，比如买入大盘股指数看涨期权。其二，控制仓位。由于市场现在是左侧，需要防范净值大幅波动，等右侧机会来了再加仓。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":655980088,"gmtCreate":1685066537245,"gmtModify":1685067555162,"author":{"id":"3506295545546950","authorId":"3506295545546950","name":"夏道休_2947","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e7cc4bb8e889742f10e6a6affea8c3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3506295545546950","idStr":"3506295545546950"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399006\">$创业板指(399006)$ &nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399006\">$创业板指(399006)$ &nbsp;</a>","text":"$创业板指(399006)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/655980088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":659992266,"gmtCreate":1679621470255,"gmtModify":1679622277237,"author":{"id":"3506295545546950","authorId":"3506295545546950","name":"夏道休_2947","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e7cc4bb8e889742f10e6a6affea8c3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3506295545546950","idStr":"3506295545546950"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$ &nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$ &nbsp;</a>","text":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659992266","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1997,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":627848782,"gmtCreate":1678239623147,"gmtModify":1678239965081,"author":{"id":"3506295545546950","authorId":"3506295545546950","name":"夏道休_2947","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e7cc4bb8e889742f10e6a6affea8c3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3506295545546950","idStr":"3506295545546950"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$ &nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$ &nbsp;</a>","text":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627848782","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":627848211,"gmtCreate":1678239564733,"gmtModify":1678239967337,"author":{"id":"3506295545546950","authorId":"3506295545546950","name":"夏道休_2947","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e7cc4bb8e889742f10e6a6affea8c3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3506295545546950","idStr":"3506295545546950"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399006\">$创业板指(399006)$ &nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399006\">$创业板指(399006)$ &nbsp;</a>","text":"$创业板指(399006)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627848211","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1980,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":372680938340464,"gmtCreate":1731996080663,"gmtModify":1731996082246,"author":{"id":"3506295545546950","authorId":"3506295545546950","name":"夏道休_2947","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e7cc4bb8e889742f10e6a6affea8c3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3506295545546950","idStr":"3506295545546950"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$&nbsp;</a>A股已经没希望了，过去是，现在是，未来更是。。。全球最拉，没有之一，远离A股，方可上岸","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$&nbsp;</a>A股已经没希望了，过去是，现在是，未来更是。。。全球最拉，没有之一，远离A股，方可上岸","text":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$ 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09:50","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"A股主要指数再度拉升，此前均一度转跌。创业板指涨1%，深证成指涨0.95%，沪指涨0.36%，培育钻石、钛白粉概念、黄金","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2649583617","media":"格隆汇","summary":"A股主要指数再度拉升，此前均一度转跌。创业板指涨1%，深证成指涨0.95%，沪指涨0.36%，培育钻石、钛白粉概念、黄金概念涨幅居前。","content":"<html><body><p>A股主要指数再度拉升，此前均一度转跌。创业板指涨1%，深证成指涨0.95%，沪指涨0.36%，培育钻石、钛白粉概念、黄金概念涨幅居前。</p></body></html>","source":"live_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A股主要指数再度拉升，此前均一度转跌。创业板指涨1%，深证成指涨0.95%，沪指涨0.36%，培育钻石、钛白粉概念、黄金</title>\n<style 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