shui哥不耍流氓的个人主页 - 老虎社区

shui哥不耍流氓

shui哥不耍流氓

个人简介：赢了我请你海底捞，输了海底捞我

IP属地：福建

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0勋章

shui哥不耍流氓

2022-07-14

[微笑]

Dow Sinks 300 Points on the Back of June’s Hot Inflation Report

shui哥不耍流氓

2022-07-01

跌就可以了

半个世纪来最差上半年对美股意味着什么？

shui哥不耍流氓

2022-07-01

$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$晚上继续跌吧

shui哥不耍流氓

2022-02-24

$蓝帽子(BHAT)$建议私有化

shui哥不耍流氓

2021-12-10

呵呵，这新闻没点水平

抱歉，原内容已删除

shui哥不耍流氓

2021-11-13

$赫兹租车(HTZ)$做空成本高，不然真想空他

shui哥不耍流氓

2021-09-03

$蓝帽子(BHAT)$受不了了，求私有化吧……公司没前途了

shui哥不耍流氓

2021-07-07

$滴滴(DIDI)$利空出尽就是利好了，是时候可以建仓了

shui哥不耍流氓

2021-07-02

$游戏驿站(GME)$🈳️

shui哥不耍流氓

2021-07-01

$叮咚(DDL)$跌吧

shui哥不耍流氓

2021-07-01

$每日优鲜(MF)$你们哪里来的勇气买它？

shui哥不耍流氓

2021-06-20

$京东(JD)$不温不火

shui哥不耍流氓

2021-06-16

$京东(JD)$缺了上涨动力？

shui哥不耍流氓

2021-03-24

$东方文化(OCG)$池水都不用干了，都可以看见谁在裸泳

shui哥不耍流氓

2021-03-11

$京东(JD)$我不服😇

shui哥不耍流氓

2021-03-11

$京东(JD)$财报可以，可以飞一波了

shui哥不耍流氓

2021-03-06

$京东(JD)$[财迷] 财报漂亮点就可以飞了

shui哥不耍流氓

2021-03-05

$京东(JD)$今晚继续跌，今晚继续入

shui哥不耍流氓

2021-03-04

$京东(JD)$你们不觉得跌也是好事吗？就我这30%的仓位，腰斩都无所谓

shui哥不耍流氓

2021-03-04

$京东(JD)$可以入

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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S&amp;P 500 futures fell 1.27% and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 1.78%.</p><p>“There’s no spinning this, other than the Fed has to get more aggressive near term and crush demand. that cements a recession now, ” said Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab. “I think a recession is an inevitability.”</p><p>The consumer price index rose 9.1% on a year-over-year basis in June, coming in even higher than May’s 8.6% reading, which was the biggest increase since 1981. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones’ had anticipated an 8.8% print.</p><p>Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, came in at 5.9% and above the 5.7% estimate.</p><p>“The market is anticipating that June will be the new peak,” said Lindsey Bell, Ally’s chief markets and money strategist. “The reading is likely to confirm what the jobs report on Friday told us – that the Fed will stick to their aggressive rate tightening timeline.”</p><p>The hot reading could prompt the central bank to hike another 75 basis points during this month’s meeting or raise expectations of an even larger increase to tame surging prices. Last month, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rates three-quarters of a percentage point to a range of 1.5%-1.75% in its most aggressive hike since 1994.</p><p>“The core is chugging along at a frightening clip,” said Michael Schumacher at Wells Fargo.</p><p>Fed funds futures are now pricing in an 81 basis points rate hike for July. That would indicate that some in the market expect a rate hike of more than 75 basis points, and 100 could happen.</p><p>“With core running this strong, the Fed can’t ignore that. This is a bad number,” he said.</p><p>Treasury yields and the dollar surged on the news. The 10-year rate added 7 basis points to trade at 3.03%, while the 2-year jumped 11 basis points to 3.16% as the euro fell below parity with the U.S. dollar.</p><p>Along with inflation data, investors on Wednesday continued to monitor second-quarter earnings for clues into the health of U.S. companies. Delta Air Lines shares slipped 3.5% in premarket trading after posting mixed results. Major banks including JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are slated to post results Thursday.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow Sinks 300 Points on the Back of June’s Hot Inflation Report</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow Sinks 300 Points on the Back of June’s Hot Inflation Report\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-13 21:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. Stock futures slid on Wednesday after June inflation data came in hotter-than-expected, contributing to growing fears that the Federal Reserve will get more aggressive in its fight to tame rising prices.</p><p>Futures tied Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 300 points, or 0.98%. S&amp;P 500 futures fell 1.27% and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 1.78%.</p><p>“There’s no spinning this, other than the Fed has to get more aggressive near term and crush demand. that cements a recession now, ” said Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab. “I think a recession is an inevitability.”</p><p>The consumer price index rose 9.1% on a year-over-year basis in June, coming in even higher than May’s 8.6% reading, which was the biggest increase since 1981. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones’ had anticipated an 8.8% print.</p><p>Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, came in at 5.9% and above the 5.7% estimate.</p><p>“The market is anticipating that June will be the new peak,” said Lindsey Bell, Ally’s chief markets and money strategist. “The reading is likely to confirm what the jobs report on Friday told us – that the Fed will stick to their aggressive rate tightening timeline.”</p><p>The hot reading could prompt the central bank to hike another 75 basis points during this month’s meeting or raise expectations of an even larger increase to tame surging prices. Last month, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rates three-quarters of a percentage point to a range of 1.5%-1.75% in its most aggressive hike since 1994.</p><p>“The core is chugging along at a frightening clip,” said Michael Schumacher at Wells Fargo.</p><p>Fed funds futures are now pricing in an 81 basis points rate hike for July. That would indicate that some in the market expect a rate hike of more than 75 basis points, and 100 could happen.</p><p>“With core running this strong, the Fed can’t ignore that. This is a bad number,” he said.</p><p>Treasury yields and the dollar surged on the news. The 10-year rate added 7 basis points to trade at 3.03%, while the 2-year jumped 11 basis points to 3.16% as the euro fell below parity with the U.S. dollar.</p><p>Along with inflation data, investors on Wednesday continued to monitor second-quarter earnings for clues into the health of U.S. companies. Delta Air Lines shares slipped 3.5% in premarket trading after posting mixed results. Major banks including JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are slated to post results Thursday.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122742419","content_text":"U.S. Stock futures slid on Wednesday after June inflation data came in hotter-than-expected, contributing to growing fears that the Federal Reserve will get more aggressive in its fight to tame rising prices.Futures tied Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 300 points, or 0.98%. S&P 500 futures fell 1.27% and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 1.78%.“There’s no spinning this, other than the Fed has to get more aggressive near term and crush demand. that cements a recession now, ” said Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab. “I think a recession is an inevitability.”The consumer price index rose 9.1% on a year-over-year basis in June, coming in even higher than May’s 8.6% reading, which was the biggest increase since 1981. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones’ had anticipated an 8.8% print.Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, came in at 5.9% and above the 5.7% estimate.“The market is anticipating that June will be the new peak,” said Lindsey Bell, Ally’s chief markets and money strategist. “The reading is likely to confirm what the jobs report on Friday told us – that the Fed will stick to their aggressive rate tightening timeline.”The hot reading could prompt the central bank to hike another 75 basis points during this month’s meeting or raise expectations of an even larger increase to tame surging prices. Last month, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rates three-quarters of a percentage point to a range of 1.5%-1.75% in its most aggressive hike since 1994.“The core is chugging along at a frightening clip,” said Michael Schumacher at Wells Fargo.Fed funds futures are now pricing in an 81 basis points rate hike for July. That would indicate that some in the market expect a rate hike of more than 75 basis points, and 100 could happen.“With core running this strong, the Fed can’t ignore that. This is a bad number,” he said.Treasury yields and the dollar surged on the news. The 10-year rate added 7 basis points to trade at 3.03%, while the 2-year jumped 11 basis points to 3.16% as the euro fell below parity with the U.S. dollar.Along with inflation data, investors on Wednesday continued to monitor second-quarter earnings for clues into the health of U.S. companies. Delta Air Lines shares slipped 3.5% in premarket trading after posting mixed results. Major banks including JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are slated to post results Thursday.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":681319205,"gmtCreate":1656662121812,"gmtModify":1704865544309,"author":{"id":"3501136561266934","authorId":"3501136561266934","name":"shui哥不耍流氓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2531c74c3c68602042f6740a0d7d819a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"跌就可以了","listText":"跌就可以了","text":"跌就可以了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/681319205","repostId":"2248489643","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2248489643","pubTimestamp":1656659436,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2248489643?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-01 15:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"半个世纪来最差上半年 对美股意味着什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2248489643","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美股大跌的罪魁祸首是通胀，而通胀愈演愈烈的一大推手是美联储。","content":"<html><body><p>自1970年以来，美股从未经历过像今年这样差劲的上半年。</p>\n<p>在六月的最后一天，标普500指数收跌0.9%，使蓝筹股指数在2022年前六个月下跌20.6%。</p>\n<p>在标普500指数的所有板块中，半年来除了能源股大涨29%，其他板块均出现不同程度的下跌。非必需消费品类股跌幅最大，跌幅达33%。被视为通胀对冲工具的公用事业股的跌幅最小，今年下跌了2%。</p>\n<p>根据彭博社追踪的标普1500综合指数数据，自2021年底以来，<strong>美国股市的市值已缩水超过9万亿美元。</strong></p>\n<p>此外，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数于6月30日收跌1.3%，2022年以来的累计跌幅接近30%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/d1939d92-d32e-45ab-ae78-c06e62bc4b1c.png\"/></p>\n<h2><strong>罪魁祸首——通胀</strong></h2>\n<p>在大部分分析师看来，这一切的罪魁祸首非通胀不可。巴克莱全球股票联席主管Paul Leech表示：“它（通胀）一直是今年的主题，而且愈演愈烈，真的。”</p>\n<p>根据官方统计的数据，美国5月CPI意外同比大增8.6%，创下自1981年12月的最高记录，<strong>通胀正在变得越来越根深蒂固。</strong></p>\n<p>而通胀愈演愈烈的一大推手在于美联储本身，美联储官员去年一直坚称“通胀是暂时的”，但实际上，它远远落后于通胀曲线，导致美国经济还没完全从新冠疫情中恢复过来，又要遭受通胀的冲击。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>LPL Financial首席股票策略师 Quincy Krosby表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>“正是因为美联储坚持其通胀宽松的‘暂时性’心态......因为央行的慷慨，因为政府的慷慨......我们才到了今天这个地步。”</p>\n</blockquote>\n<h2><strong>激进加息下  硬着陆难以避免</strong></h2>\n<p>由于落后于通胀曲线，美联储被迫加速追赶，目前美联储已经累计加息150个基点，而且很可能会继续激进加息。然而，在许多华尔街人士眼中，美联储反应太慢了，如果能早点行动，情况或许没有那么糟糕，而如此激烈的收紧货币政策可能会将美国推入衰退漩涡。</p>\n<p>据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席投资官Bob Michele表示<strong>，美国现在看起来更有可能出现衰退而不是软着陆</strong>，因为今天的经济前景看起来比40年前更加糟糕。</p>\n<p>Michele认为，在通胀越来越根深蒂固的情况下，<strong>美联储在加速收紧货币政策的路上还要再走很长一段。</strong>他在接受媒体采访时表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>“这无疑是我职业生涯中最具挑战性的时期”，“我们被困在流动性泛滥的系统中，与当前我们看到的经济增长和通胀以及就业率水平相比，利率低的离谱。”</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>随着股市暴跌，投资者的安全感正在消耗殆尽。彭博数据显示，在过去六个月中，投资者已经从iSharesiBoxx高收益企业债券<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a>撤回超过67亿美元，这是自2007年该ETF成立以来最大的半年度资金流出。</p>\n<p>此外，出于对经济衰退的恐惧，美国国债最近几天上涨，使10年期美债收益率跌至接近3%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/59fed21b-7fe1-4ca4-bb18-ab8369e51bbb.png\"/></p>\n<h2><strong>美股下半年怎么走</strong></h2>\n<p>如果Michele一语成谶，股票和其他风险资产的表现可能会更加糟糕。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0J6Y.UK\">法国兴业银行</a>此前估计，<strong>标普</strong><strong>500</strong><strong>未来六个月可能需要较</strong><strong>1</strong><strong>月份的峰值下跌</strong><strong>34%-40%</strong><strong>至</strong><strong>2900-3150</strong><strong>点，</strong>才能够触底。这意味着标普500指数将在当前水平进一步下跌17%以上。</p>\n<p><strong>与此同时，仍有分析师持看涨态度。</strong>一方面，在大量投资者出逃之际，还有不少投资者正在或准备大举抄底。另一方面，有分析认为美国通胀水平将很快降下去，衰退不会很快出现。</p>\n<p>华尔街知名金融机构Oppenheimer的策略师John Stoltzfus预计，<strong>标普500指数在2022年结束时为5330点，这意味着标普500指数将在未来六个月内上涨约40%。</strong></p>\n<p>包括摩根大通和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>集团在内的少数其他公司的预测该指数到年底至少反弹30%。在最新的彭博调查中，华尔街策略师平均认为标普500指数将会在下半年反弹20%。</p>\n<p>此外，根据道琼斯市场数据公司编制的数据，标普500指数在上半年下跌超过15%后，下半年会出现反弹。<strong>平均涨幅为</strong><strong>23.66%</strong><strong>，中位数涨幅为</strong><strong>15.25%</strong><strong>。</strong>注意，可供参考的样本量只有5个。</p>\n<p><strong>按照平均涨幅计算，标普</strong><strong>500</strong><strong>指数在下半年将反弹至</strong><strong>4680</strong><strong>点左右。</strong></p>\n<p>但并不是所有的指数都会经历相似的路径。比如，道琼斯指数在上半年下跌超过10%后，下半年表现是不稳定的。2008年金融危机爆发时，道指在下半年再次下跌22.68%。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>半个世纪来最差上半年 对美股意味着什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n半个世纪来最差上半年 对美股意味着什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-01 15:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3663596><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>自1970年以来，美股从未经历过像今年这样差劲的上半年。\n在六月的最后一天，标普500指数收跌0.9%，使蓝筹股指数在2022年前六个月下跌20.6%。\n在标普500指数的所有板块中，半年来除了能源股大涨29%，其他板块均出现不同程度的下跌。非必需消费品类股跌幅最大，跌幅达33%。被视为通胀对冲工具的公用事业股的跌幅最小，今年下跌了2%。\n根据彭博社追踪的标普1500综合指数数据，自2021年底...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3663596\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","BK4566":"资本集团","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4207":"综合性银行","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","JPM":"摩根大通","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","03086":"华夏纳指","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3663596","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2248489643","content_text":"自1970年以来，美股从未经历过像今年这样差劲的上半年。\n在六月的最后一天，标普500指数收跌0.9%，使蓝筹股指数在2022年前六个月下跌20.6%。\n在标普500指数的所有板块中，半年来除了能源股大涨29%，其他板块均出现不同程度的下跌。非必需消费品类股跌幅最大，跌幅达33%。被视为通胀对冲工具的公用事业股的跌幅最小，今年下跌了2%。\n根据彭博社追踪的标普1500综合指数数据，自2021年底以来，美国股市的市值已缩水超过9万亿美元。\n此外，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数于6月30日收跌1.3%，2022年以来的累计跌幅接近30%。\n\n罪魁祸首——通胀\n在大部分分析师看来，这一切的罪魁祸首非通胀不可。巴克莱全球股票联席主管Paul Leech表示：“它（通胀）一直是今年的主题，而且愈演愈烈，真的。”\n根据官方统计的数据，美国5月CPI意外同比大增8.6%，创下自1981年12月的最高记录，通胀正在变得越来越根深蒂固。\n而通胀愈演愈烈的一大推手在于美联储本身，美联储官员去年一直坚称“通胀是暂时的”，但实际上，它远远落后于通胀曲线，导致美国经济还没完全从新冠疫情中恢复过来，又要遭受通胀的冲击。\n金融机构LPL Financial首席股票策略师 Quincy Krosby表示：\n\n“正是因为美联储坚持其通胀宽松的‘暂时性’心态......因为央行的慷慨，因为政府的慷慨......我们才到了今天这个地步。”\n\n激进加息下  硬着陆难以避免\n由于落后于通胀曲线，美联储被迫加速追赶，目前美联储已经累计加息150个基点，而且很可能会继续激进加息。然而，在许多华尔街人士眼中，美联储反应太慢了，如果能早点行动，情况或许没有那么糟糕，而如此激烈的收紧货币政策可能会将美国推入衰退漩涡。\n据摩根大通首席投资官Bob Michele表示，美国现在看起来更有可能出现衰退而不是软着陆，因为今天的经济前景看起来比40年前更加糟糕。\nMichele认为，在通胀越来越根深蒂固的情况下，美联储在加速收紧货币政策的路上还要再走很长一段。他在接受媒体采访时表示：\n\n“这无疑是我职业生涯中最具挑战性的时期”，“我们被困在流动性泛滥的系统中，与当前我们看到的经济增长和通胀以及就业率水平相比，利率低的离谱。”\n\n随着股市暴跌，投资者的安全感正在消耗殆尽。彭博数据显示，在过去六个月中，投资者已经从iSharesiBoxx高收益企业债券Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF撤回超过67亿美元，这是自2007年该ETF成立以来最大的半年度资金流出。\n此外，出于对经济衰退的恐惧，美国国债最近几天上涨，使10年期美债收益率跌至接近3%。\n\n美股下半年怎么走\n如果Michele一语成谶，股票和其他风险资产的表现可能会更加糟糕。\n法国兴业银行此前估计，标普500未来六个月可能需要较1月份的峰值下跌34%-40%至2900-3150点，才能够触底。这意味着标普500指数将在当前水平进一步下跌17%以上。\n与此同时，仍有分析师持看涨态度。一方面，在大量投资者出逃之际，还有不少投资者正在或准备大举抄底。另一方面，有分析认为美国通胀水平将很快降下去，衰退不会很快出现。\n华尔街知名金融机构Oppenheimer的策略师John 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