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几米one

几米one

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09-21

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09-15

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09-12

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【国元研究】传媒行业周报——可灵Q2营收超2.5亿，DeepSeek-V3.1 发布

09-04

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09-04

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09-03

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08-27

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08-24

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08-21

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08-19

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08-18

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08-18

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08-12

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08-05

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07-23

1

泡沫猎手：马斯克的三次完美逃顶

07-20

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

中概互联网巨头已触底？伯恩斯坦：AI成本被过度悲观解读，重点关注腾讯

07-06

1

阿里巴巴(BABA)盘前扬升1.48% 阿里云以40.1%市占率稳居中国最大AI云服务厂商

06-30

1

@杨不留行:谐波减速器"双寡头"格局已定，来福谐波凭什么站上港股风口？

05-15

1

大摩：亚洲准备好捕捉全球AI资本支出激增机遇列出区内最新主题焦点股名单

04-25

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

腾讯控股：预计2026年5月13日公布一季报，预测一季度营业收入1973.00~2024.29亿元，同比增长9.6%~12.4%

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300418\">昆仑万维</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000676\">智度股份</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600637\">东方明珠</a>表现较优，恒生科技成分股中传媒行业<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00772\">阅文集团</a>（周涨幅9.35%）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易-S</a>（周涨幅2.50%）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>（周涨幅1.35%）表现较好。</p><p><strong>行业重点数据及动态更新</strong></p><p><strong>AI应用：</strong>最近一周（8.17-8.23）Deepseek/豆包/夸克/腾讯元宝七麦数据预估ios端下载量分别为34.98/209.57/77.01/85.26万次，环比分别-8.88%/+0.76%/+18.89%/-32.76%，豆包周度下载量相对领先，夸克近一周下载量增幅明显。AI应用事件方面，DeepSeek-V3.1 发布，智谱发布 AutoGLM 2.0。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手</a>发布25年中报业绩，25Q2可灵AI单季实现营收超2.5亿元，商业化进展超预期；快手新推出的OneRec端到端推荐大模型，有效提升用户时<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00001\">长和</a>留存率。昆仑万维发布25年中报，营收37.33亿元，同比+49.23%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01357\">美图公司</a>披露25年上半年业绩：总收入18亿元，同比增长12.3％，经调整后归属于母公司权益持有人<span>净利润</span>4.67亿元，同比增长71.3％，增长主要得益于AI应用取得突破，全球付费订阅用户数量提升，以订阅为主的影像与设计产品业务收入快速增长。</p><p><strong>游戏：</strong>2025年7月，中国游戏市场规模为290.84亿元，同比增长4.62%，其<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00941\">中移动</a>游戏7月市场规模为213.6亿元，同比增长0.92%。本周，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603444\">吉比特</a>发布2025年中报，2025上半年，吉比特实现<span>营业收入</span>25.18亿元，同比增加28.49%；归母净利润6.45亿元，同比增加24.50%，超市场预期，《杖剑传说》表现优秀，上半年流水实现4.24亿元。</p><p><strong>影视：</strong>本周（8.15-8.21）院线总票房12.52亿元，后续（8.25-29）将有16部影片上映。本周，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300413\">芒果超媒</a>发布25年上半年业绩，上半年营收59.64亿元，归母净利润7.63亿元。</p><p><strong>其他板块：</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300364\">中文在线</a>发布25年上半年业绩，实现营收5.56亿元，实现归母净亏损2.26亿元。</p><p><strong>投资建议</strong></p><p>我们看好AI应用、文化出海等主题方向，重点关注游戏、IP、短剧、出版等子板块，标的方面，关注<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002558\">巨人网络</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002517\">恺英网络</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002605\">姚记科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300002\">神州泰岳</a>、吉比特、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600633\">浙数文化</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002624\">完美世界</a>、快手、美图公司、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02400\">心动公司</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601595\">上海电影</a>、芒果超媒、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601900\">南方传媒</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601801\">皖新传媒</a>。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【国元研究】传媒行业周报——可灵Q2营收超2.5亿，DeepSeek-V3.1 发布</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【国元研究】传媒行业周报——可灵Q2营收超2.5亿，DeepSeek-V3.1 发布\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-26 07:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250826084501a6fb5fc6&s=b><strong>国元研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文 |   李典    郜子娴可灵Q2营收超2.5亿，DeepSeek-V3.1 发布——传媒行业周报市场表现周度涨跌情况（2025.8.16-2025.8.22，下同）：传媒行业（申万）上涨5.17%，排名行业第6名，同期沪深300涨4.18%，上证指数涨3.49%，深证成指涨4.57%，创业板指涨5.85%，恒生科技指数涨1.89%。本周，果麦文化、顺网科技、昆仑万维、智度股份和东方明珠表现...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250826084501a6fb5fc6&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"02400":"心动公司","01981":"华夏控股","00772":"阅文集团","09999":"网易"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250826084501a6fb5fc6&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2562783853","content_text":"文 |   李典    郜子娴可灵Q2营收超2.5亿，DeepSeek-V3.1 发布——传媒行业周报市场表现周度涨跌情况（2025.8.16-2025.8.22，下同）：传媒行业（申万）上涨5.17%，排名行业第6名，同期沪深300涨4.18%，上证指数涨3.49%，深证成指涨4.57%，创业板指涨5.85%，恒生科技指数涨1.89%。本周，果麦文化、顺网科技、昆仑万维、智度股份和东方明珠表现较优，恒生科技成分股中传媒行业阅文集团（周涨幅9.35%）、网易-S（周涨幅2.50%）和腾讯控股（周涨幅1.35%）表现较好。行业重点数据及动态更新AI应用：最近一周（8.17-8.23）Deepseek/豆包/夸克/腾讯元宝七麦数据预估ios端下载量分别为34.98/209.57/77.01/85.26万次，环比分别-8.88%/+0.76%/+18.89%/-32.76%，豆包周度下载量相对领先，夸克近一周下载量增幅明显。AI应用事件方面，DeepSeek-V3.1 发布，智谱发布 AutoGLM 2.0。快手发布25年中报业绩，25Q2可灵AI单季实现营收超2.5亿元，商业化进展超预期；快手新推出的OneRec端到端推荐大模型，有效提升用户时长和留存率。昆仑万维发布25年中报，营收37.33亿元，同比+49.23%。美图公司披露25年上半年业绩：总收入18亿元，同比增长12.3％，经调整后归属于母公司权益持有人净利润4.67亿元，同比增长71.3％，增长主要得益于AI应用取得突破，全球付费订阅用户数量提升，以订阅为主的影像与设计产品业务收入快速增长。游戏：2025年7月，中国游戏市场规模为290.84亿元，同比增长4.62%，其中移动游戏7月市场规模为213.6亿元，同比增长0.92%。本周，吉比特发布2025年中报，2025上半年，吉比特实现营业收入25.18亿元，同比增加28.49%；归母净利润6.45亿元，同比增加24.50%，超市场预期，《杖剑传说》表现优秀，上半年流水实现4.24亿元。影视：本周（8.15-8.21）院线总票房12.52亿元，后续（8.25-29）将有16部影片上映。本周，芒果超媒发布25年上半年业绩，上半年营收59.64亿元，归母净利润7.63亿元。其他板块：中文在线发布25年上半年业绩，实现营收5.56亿元，实现归母净亏损2.26亿元。投资建议我们看好AI应用、文化出海等主题方向，重点关注游戏、IP、短剧、出版等子板块，标的方面，关注巨人网络、恺英网络、姚记科技、神州泰岳、吉比特、浙数文化、完美世界、快手、美图公司、心动公司、上海电影、芒果超媒、南方传媒、皖新传媒。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01981":1,"00772":0.9,"09999":0.9,"02400":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":604158947616128,"gmtCreate":1788536800229,"gmtModify":1788536803800,"author":{"id":"3496403814458854","authorId":"3496403814458854","name":"几米one","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a508ce500224d141376ddbecf58e58","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3496403814458854","idStr":"3496403814458854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ccb3d09039fa8819cc34f399da19da","width":"860","height":"2610"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604158947616128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":604099774399080,"gmtCreate":1788514941206,"gmtModify":1788514948230,"author":{"id":"3496403814458854","authorId":"3496403814458854","name":"几米one","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a508ce500224d141376ddbecf58e58","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3496403814458854","idStr":"3496403814458854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c65b88f77c782dd589f57934343f94b","width":"860","height":"6133"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604099774399080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":603593974682656,"gmtCreate":1788398812758,"gmtModify":1788398817498,"author":{"id":"3496403814458854","authorId":"3496403814458854","name":"几米one","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a508ce500224d141376ddbecf58e58","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3496403814458854","idStr":"3496403814458854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b093ab17a02cc90408a64260f12680e6","width":"860","height":"4653"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603593974682656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":601141637641152,"gmtCreate":1787800093011,"gmtModify":1787802797502,"author":{"id":"3496403814458854","authorId":"3496403814458854","name":"几米one","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a508ce500224d141376ddbecf58e58","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3496403814458854","idStr":"3496403814458854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94cd3f2b9937201eef2766714ebf3a07","width":"860","height":"2007"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601141637641152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":600124734665160,"gmtCreate":1787540604728,"gmtModify":1787540616215,"author":{"id":"3496403814458854","authorId":"3496403814458854","name":"几米one","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a508ce500224d141376ddbecf58e58","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3496403814458854","idStr":"3496403814458854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/108d365eeb5f0c62e7011132d84c0d2d","width":"860","height":"7321"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600124734665160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":599156209153312,"gmtCreate":1787304241022,"gmtModify":1787304254703,"author":{"id":"3496403814458854","autho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10:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"泡沫猎手：马斯克的三次完美逃顶","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107426970","media":"锦缎","summary":"而马斯克这三次都成功抓住了机会。作为最大股东，马斯克自己拿到了1.8亿美元。泡沫给马斯克的钱，变成了无法被泡沫破裂摧毁的东西。第一次互联网泡沫，马斯克全身而退，还带走了三个巨头的种子。02 减碳泡沫：2008-20212010年6月，马斯克的Tesla登陆纳斯达克，IPO价格17美元，估值约17亿美元。对于马斯克来说，真正的狂欢从2019年开始。一年三次增发，Tesla累计募集超过120亿美元。Tesla股价暴跌，马斯克个人财富缩水2000亿美元，创下吉尼斯纪录。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span>资本永不眠，但成为超级天才的机会只有三次。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>而马斯克这三次都成功抓住了机会。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>2026年6月，SpaceX以1.77万亿美元估值完成IPO，刷新人类商业史纪录。媒体狂欢，投资者沸腾，“太空+AI”叙事如日中天。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>同一时间，马斯克两家上市公司账面上合计超过1500亿美元现金，安静地看着这一切。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>这是他的第三次在泡沫最高峰拿到融资，全身而退。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>要知道，今天的OpenAI和Anthropic既没有完成IPO，也没有实现现金流闭环的生意模式，反而是马斯克，既融到了天量火药，又成功的搭建了垂直一体化的模型，已经开始正向产生现金流。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/926c3aade8291e94541958a929192c6c\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>纵观过去30年，每一次，资本泡沫都吞噬了无数逐利者。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>但马斯克在每一次浪潮退去时，不仅全身而退，还带走了建造下一座城堡所需的一切材料。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>我们不禁想问：凭什么？</span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><span><strong><em>01 </em>互联网泡沫：1995-2002</strong></span></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>1995年，网景浏览器上市，一天之内股价翻了三倍。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>硅谷的空气开始变得粘稠，那是钱的味道。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>任何带“.com”后缀的公司都能融到资，商业计划书不如餐巾纸上的涂鸦值钱。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>纳斯达克指数像坐了火箭，从1995年的1000点一路狂飙到2000年3月的5048点。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>24岁的高材生马斯克，敏锐的发现这个机会，从宾大物理学博士退学，进入了这场盛宴。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>他的第一张牌叫Zip2——把报纸信息搬到网上的黄页服务。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>1999年，康柏电脑以3.07亿美元现金收购了这家公司。马斯克作为创始人，个人入账2200万美元。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>他没有像同龄暴富者那样买游艇或沉迷派对，而是几乎全部投入了下一家公司：X.com。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>从后来事态发展看，马斯克对X这个字符有着独特的感情，但在1999年，它是最激进的在线支付公司。X.com后来与peter thiel 的Confinity合并，变成了PayPal。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>马斯克坚持用这个名字，据说是因为听起来像来自未来的东西。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>2002年，eBay以15亿美元收购PayPal。作为最大股东，马斯克自己拿到了1.8亿美元。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>这里面的细节是：马斯克变现的时间点非常精准，当时互联网泡沫已经破裂。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>纳斯达克从5048点跌到1100点，市值蒸发5万亿美元。Pets.com、Webvan、Boo.com——无数明星公司灰飞烟灭。仅2000年一年，就有超过200家互联网公司倒闭。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>但PayPal活下来了，还卖了个好价钱。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>为什么？</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>因为马斯克和peter thiel的这个在线支付业务已经跑通了：通过给注册用户账户直接发补贴金，paypal获客障碍不复存在，而几千万注册用户通过电商购物支付手续费给paypal，在泡沫破裂之前，Paypal已经是一个正现金流的公司：</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>到2002年被收购时，PayPal已经拥有超过1500万注册用户，交易额突破30亿美元。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>这不是运气。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>马斯克在泡沫最疯狂时，建造了唯一一个生意模式跑通的互联网银行业务，而且他死磕技术细节，PayPal的反欺诈系统在当时领先整个行业，也启发了后来的Palantir出行。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>泡沫给马斯克的钱，变成了无法被泡沫破裂摧毁的东西。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>这1.8亿美元后来变成了什么？继续梭哈的马斯克，没有将这笔钱变成私人飞机和无人海岛，而是变成了下一场征程的弹药库。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>SpaceX的1亿美元启动资金，Tesla的700万美元首轮领投，以及SolarCity的种子轮。2008年SpaceX三次发射失败时，是这笔原始积累撑过了至暗时刻。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>第一次互联网泡沫，马斯克全身而退，还带走了三个巨头的种子。</span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><span><strong><em>02 </em>减碳泡沫：2008-2021</strong></span></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>2010年6月，马斯克的Tesla登陆纳斯达克，IPO价格17美元，估值约17亿美元。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>彼时这家公司只卖出了不到1500辆Roadster，账面亏损，产能地狱，距离盈利遥遥无期。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>华尔街的分析师们在报告里委婉地写道：“这是一次基于信仰的估值。”回头看，戈尔的《难以忽视的真相》塑造了一场历史上最大的全球减碳的社会运动，将电动车，电池，太阳能产业的目标推的更远。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>每家光伏，风电，电池，电车公司都拿到了海量融资和巨大的估值，但并不是所有人都能够从隧道另一头的微光里走出来。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>对于马斯克来说，真正的狂欢从2019年开始。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>那年Tesla上海超级工厂以创纪录的速度建成投产——从破土到第一辆车下线只用了168天。中国市场的闸门打开了。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>当年Tesla产量36.5万辆，较上年增长50%。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>2020年尽管全球疫情肆虐，Tesla仍然交付了49.9万辆，离马斯克吹出去的“50万”只差一毫米。股价从2019年初的约60美元（拆股调整后）一路涨到2021年11月的峰值407美元。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>市值一度突破1.2万亿美元。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>这是什么概念？丰田、大众、通用、福特、本田——全球前十大传统车企市值加起来，不如一家Tesla。而当时Tesla的年销量不到他们的十分之一。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>绿色能源叙事席卷全球。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>ESG基金规模在2021年突破2.7万亿美元。欧盟宣布2035年禁售燃油车。拜登政府通过《通胀削减法案》，给电动车补贴7500美元。碳积分交易成为一门大生意——2020年Tesla仅靠出售监管积分就入账15.8亿美元，2021年进一步增至17.5亿美元。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>大量电动车初创公司在这个窗口期完成SPAC上市，市值一度比肩老牌车企，随后一个接一个破产清算——Lordstown、Proterra、Arrival，名单长得令人悲伤。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>马斯克是上百家电动车公司中唯一一个活下来的。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>马斯克是怎么做的？他没有套现离场，也没有市值管理，而是充分拥抱泡沫，在市值历史高位的时候，连续3次股权增发。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span><strong>第一次融资</strong>：2020年2月，Tesla以每股767美元的价格增发，募集23亿美元。当时股价处于历史高位，稀释极低。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span><strong>第二次融资</strong>：2020年9月，股价继续飙升，再次增发50亿美元。零票息，因为用的是股权。成本几乎为零。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span><strong>第三次融资</strong>：2020年12月，又融了50亿美元。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>一年三次增发，Tesla累计募集超过120亿美元。这些钱在估值最高点被锁定，转身成为了特斯拉电动车庞大帝国的燃料。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>钱去了哪里？</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>上海工厂二期、柏林超级工厂、德克萨斯超级工厂、4680电池产线、Dojo超级计算机。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>到2021年底，Tesla年产能已从2019年的不足40万辆暴增至超过150万辆。全球四大工厂布局完成。2170电池成本下降至每千瓦时100美元以下。FSD Beta开始在北美推送。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>特斯拉建成了真正的壁垒：垂直整合的制造能力、全球化的产能布局、自研芯片和自动驾驶算法、覆盖主要市场的超充网络。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>同时，还有一个隐秘的金手指在发挥作用：碳积分和监管额度。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>当其他车企还在为排放超标焦头烂额时，Tesla在2020-2022年累计靠出售碳积分赚了超过45亿美元。这笔几乎是纯利润的收入，全部砸进了新工厂和新产线建设。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>这意味着什么？</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span><strong>全球变暖泡沫叙事的迅速启动和终结——来自ESG叙事、绿色补贴、碳积分的高估值溢价——被马斯克系统性地转化成了无法被复制的物理资产，但其他的几百家清洁能源公司企业，最终一个也没有活下来。</strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>2022年，美联储暴力加息，科技股泡沫破裂。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>Tesla股价从高点回撤超过70%，市值蒸发超过8000亿美元。大量电动车初创公司灰飞烟灭。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>Tesla股价暴跌，马斯克个人财富缩水2000亿美元，创下吉尼斯纪录。但公司本身的业务没垮。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>2022年全年，特斯拉交付131万辆，同比增长40%。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>2023年交付181万辆。毛利率始终维持在20%以上。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>马斯克的现金流充裕到可以花440亿美元收购Twitter（后来的X）来掌握舆论场。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>2025年，Tesla全年交付突破290万辆。能源业务收入首次超过150亿美元。FSD在美国三个州实现真正的无监督运营。Optimus机器人开始在超级工厂内部替代部分重复性劳动。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>到2026年第一季度，Tesla账上现金加短期投资合计447亿美元。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>绿色泡沫再次如期退潮，但这一次，Tesla带着肌肉，再次，活了下来。</span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><span><strong><em>03 </em>AI泡沫：2023-2026</strong></span></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>如果说前两次马斯克是在“借泡沫”，第三次，他直接在“造泡沫”。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>2022年11月，OpenAI发布ChatGPT。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>随后18个月，全球AI投资狂潮启动。微软累计投入超过130亿美元，谷歌、Meta、亚马逊跟进千亿级资本开支。NVIDIA数据中心收入2024财年达到475亿美元，同比增长217%，市值突破3万亿美元。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>一级市场更疯狂。Anthropic估值在12个月内翻了5倍，达到600亿美元。任何带着“AI”标签的初创公司都能在A轮拿到上亿美元。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>用亚马逊创始人贝索斯的话说：没有一个AI方向拿不到融资，这一切都太像2000年了。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>模型层积累的火药库一触即发，点燃的是算力层的硬件庞大需求。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>马斯克看在眼里。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>2023年7月，他宣布成立xAI，口号是“理解宇宙的真实本质”。团队从OpenAI、DeepMind、谷歌挖来顶尖研究者。十个月内，xAI建成Colossus超算集群，部署10万张H100 GPU。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span><strong>速度固然震惊业界。更重要的是，马斯克的高效部署，让xAI接住了接下来暴涨的算力租赁需求，直接完成了现金流闭环。</strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>但这只是序曲。真正的大手笔在2026年。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>2026年2月，马斯克宣布将xAI并入SpaceX。交易结构精心设计：xAI资产（团队、算力集群、Grok模型）注入SpaceX，换取SpaceX约25%股权。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>这一操作的精妙之处在于叙事叠加。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>SpaceX本就拥有Starlink这颗现金牛——2025年Starlink活跃用户突破400万，年收入超过120亿美元，毛利超过60%。可回收火箭的发射成本是竞争对手的十分之一，全球LEO星座无出其右。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>现在再加上“AI算力基础设施”的故事。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>逻辑链是这样的：Starlink卫星网络可以成为全球分布式AI推理的计算节点；低轨星座天然适合低延迟AI服务；SpaceX的发射能力可以部署天基AI算力；Grok模型可以通过Starlink为全球用户提供实时AI服务。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>资本市场瞬间沸腾。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>“太空+AI”——还有什么比这更性感的叙事？云计算是二维的，Starlink+AI是三维的。亚马逊AWS花了十五年建成的东西，SpaceX可以在五年内用更宏大的方式重构。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>2026年6月，SpaceX以1.77万亿美元估值完成IPO，融资规模约750-860亿美元，成为人类历史上最大规模上市案。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>IPO后，SpaceX现金储备轻松突破1000亿美元。加上Tesla的447亿美元，马斯克系两家公司合计现金超过1500亿美元。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>这个数字有多离谱？</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>苹果2025年底现金储备约800亿美元。谷歌约1100亿美元。沙特阿美约600亿美元。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span><strong>1500亿美元意味着，马斯克控制的企业现金池，相当于一个中等国家的外汇储备。</strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>而这一切是在做多期权定价最高的时候完成的，锁进去的，是AI泡沫的全额溢价。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>但他不是在“退出AI”。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>Grok仍然在迭代,Grok4.5很快与一线模型能力打平。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>Colossus集群仍在扩张，Starlink的AI服务仍在推进。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>他只是把AI装进了SpaceX这个有真实现金流和硬科技壁垒的壳子里，然后用最高估值把未来的钱全部融到了现在。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>如果AI泡沫破裂——诸多迹象显示这正在发生：</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>随着开源模型的步步紧逼，以及越来越多的企业应用方开始质疑AI的投资回报率，多家AI公司收入预期大幅下调，企业AI应用落地缓慢，GPU租赁价格也开始松动——SpaceX还有Starlink的现金流撑着，有NASA的发射合同垫底，以及算力租赁的高ROI挺着。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>如果AI泡沫不破，继续膨胀——SpaceX拥有算力、模型、分发网络，是AI时代最核心的基础设施，估值还能更高。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>马斯克已经赢了，无论最终如何。</span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><span><strong><em>04  </em>泡沫猎手的底层代码</strong></span></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>2同样的剧本上演了三遍。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>人们迷恋于叙事的宏大，却往往忽略什么才是真正让马斯克三次全身而退的“底层代码”。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>1999年，当所有人都涌入电商、门户、内容社区这些最热门赛道时，马斯克选择了在线支付——交易的基础设施。无论互联网走向何方，人们总要付钱。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>2008年，当传统车企还在嘲笑电动车是玩具时，马斯克押注了电池、电驱、软件——未来汽车工业的地基。无论谁造电动车，都绕不开这些。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>2023年，当AI创业者争相开发聊天机器人和AI绘图时，马斯克又一次选择了基础设施——算力、模型、分发网络。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>这不只是判断力，更是某种近乎偏执的信念：<strong>赌叙事，更要赌护城河</strong>。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>泡沫之所以是泡沫，是因为叙事远远跑在了现实前面。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>但在马斯克的剧本里，泡沫只是燃料，目的地始终是那座需要用十年以上才能建成的城堡。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>PayPal的网络效应，Tesla的制造壁垒，SpaceX的算力成本结构——这些东西不会因为估值涨跌而消失。它们是物理世界的存在，是时间铸成的护城河。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>而另一面，他确实冷酷。每一次泡沫最热时，他都毫不犹豫地进行了大规模资本操作。2020-2021年Tesla三次高位增发。2026年SpaceX在市场巅峰完成IPO。叙事越是光芒万丈，他越要抓紧兑现。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>从不犹豫，从不多情。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>这笔钱并没有被挥霍或者囤积，而是迅速砸进了更长期的工程：上海工厂从荒地到投产，168天；Colossus超算集群从立项到运行，10个月。用泡沫养基建，用叙事换时间。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>“泡沫的钱建真生意”——这才是他的真正信条。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>这也是为什么他能第三次全身而退，而大多数“叙事型企业家”在泡沫退潮时连裤衩都不剩。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>2026年7月，SpaceX股价从IPO后的高点回落了15%。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>有分析师开始质疑1.77万亿估值是否合理——Starlink的增长天花板在哪里？AI业务何时能贡献实质营收？发射市场的规模是否被高估？</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>马斯克在X上发了一条动态：“关注十年后，不是十天后。”</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>配图是星舰第四次试飞时，超重型助推器被发射塔“筷子”稳稳夹住的那个瞬间。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>泡沫终会退去。筹码已经落地，牌局仍将继续。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1596593134739","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>泡沫猎手：马斯克的三次完美逃顶</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n泡沫猎手：马斯克的三次完美逃顶\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-23 10:51 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_jpg/WowpCWria4jsYsfhEAY3nw5FG177goDnue3H0MHE6qTmmDokLw7u2IxrBgbHXXDnicFr0GHqEqvndKZGeZ4ysbuanWHPl6wJBrRIIsLxv64VU/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&from=appmsg&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=1><strong>锦缎</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>资本永不眠，但成为超级天才的机会只有三次。而马斯克这三次都成功抓住了机会。2026年6月，SpaceX以1.77万亿美元估值完成IPO，刷新人类商业史纪录。媒体狂欢，投资者沸腾，“太空+AI”叙事如日中天。同一时间，马斯克两家上市公司账面上合计超过1500亿美元现金，安静地看着这一切。这是他的第三次在泡沫最高峰拿到融资，全身而退。要知道，今天的OpenAI和Anthropic既没有完成IPO，也...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_jpg/WowpCWria4jsYsfhEAY3nw5FG177goDnue3H0MHE6qTmmDokLw7u2IxrBgbHXXDnicFr0GHqEqvndKZGeZ4ysbuanWHPl6wJBrRIIsLxv64VU/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&from=appmsg&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=1\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/926c3aade8291e94541958a929192c6c","relate_stocks":{"TSLI":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-ProShares","SPCG":"2倍做空SpaceX ETF-Tradr","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","SPCH":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-Leverage Shares","TLA":"GraniteShares Autocallable TSLA ETF","SPAX":"2倍做多SPACEX ETF-T-REX","09766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉-U","TSLP":"TSLA收益溢价策略ETF-Kurv","TSLQ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr","TSLR":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TSLS":"1倍做空TSLA ETF-Direxion","SPCM":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-Tradr","SPCX":"SPAC and New Issue ETF","TSLT":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-T-Rex","SPCQ":"2倍做空SpaceX ETF-Defiance","CRSH":"做空TSLA 期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","07366":"南方两倍做空特斯拉","TSLW":"TSLA周配息ETF-Roundhill","TSDD":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TSII":"REX TSLA Growth & Income ETF","09366":"南方两倍做空特斯拉-U","TESL":"Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF","TSLY":"TSLA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","SNK":"2倍做空SpaceX ETF-GraniteShares","SSPC":"2倍做空SpaceX ETF-Leverage Shares","SPCU":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-Defiance","TSL":"1.25倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TSLO":"2倍上限加速TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","TSLZ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-T-Rex","TEST":"YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF","07766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉","SPAL":"2倍做多Space X ETF-GraniteShares","LOFF":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-Direxion","TSLG":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","TSYY":"收益增强TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","SPCF":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-ProShares","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_jpg/WowpCWria4jsYsfhEAY3nw5FG177goDnue3H0MHE6qTmmDokLw7u2IxrBgbHXXDnicFr0GHqEqvndKZGeZ4ysbuanWHPl6wJBrRIIsLxv64VU/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&from=appmsg&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=1","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107426970","content_text":"资本永不眠，但成为超级天才的机会只有三次。而马斯克这三次都成功抓住了机会。2026年6月，SpaceX以1.77万亿美元估值完成IPO，刷新人类商业史纪录。媒体狂欢，投资者沸腾，“太空+AI”叙事如日中天。同一时间，马斯克两家上市公司账面上合计超过1500亿美元现金，安静地看着这一切。这是他的第三次在泡沫最高峰拿到融资，全身而退。要知道，今天的OpenAI和Anthropic既没有完成IPO，也没有实现现金流闭环的生意模式，反而是马斯克，既融到了天量火药，又成功的搭建了垂直一体化的模型，已经开始正向产生现金流。纵观过去30年，每一次，资本泡沫都吞噬了无数逐利者。但马斯克在每一次浪潮退去时，不仅全身而退，还带走了建造下一座城堡所需的一切材料。我们不禁想问：凭什么？01 互联网泡沫：1995-20021995年，网景浏览器上市，一天之内股价翻了三倍。硅谷的空气开始变得粘稠，那是钱的味道。任何带“.com”后缀的公司都能融到资，商业计划书不如餐巾纸上的涂鸦值钱。纳斯达克指数像坐了火箭，从1995年的1000点一路狂飙到2000年3月的5048点。24岁的高材生马斯克，敏锐的发现这个机会，从宾大物理学博士退学，进入了这场盛宴。他的第一张牌叫Zip2——把报纸信息搬到网上的黄页服务。1999年，康柏电脑以3.07亿美元现金收购了这家公司。马斯克作为创始人，个人入账2200万美元。他没有像同龄暴富者那样买游艇或沉迷派对，而是几乎全部投入了下一家公司：X.com。从后来事态发展看，马斯克对X这个字符有着独特的感情，但在1999年，它是最激进的在线支付公司。X.com后来与peter thiel 的Confinity合并，变成了PayPal。马斯克坚持用这个名字，据说是因为听起来像来自未来的东西。2002年，eBay以15亿美元收购PayPal。作为最大股东，马斯克自己拿到了1.8亿美元。这里面的细节是：马斯克变现的时间点非常精准，当时互联网泡沫已经破裂。纳斯达克从5048点跌到1100点，市值蒸发5万亿美元。Pets.com、Webvan、Boo.com——无数明星公司灰飞烟灭。仅2000年一年，就有超过200家互联网公司倒闭。但PayPal活下来了，还卖了个好价钱。为什么？因为马斯克和peter thiel的这个在线支付业务已经跑通了：通过给注册用户账户直接发补贴金，paypal获客障碍不复存在，而几千万注册用户通过电商购物支付手续费给paypal，在泡沫破裂之前，Paypal已经是一个正现金流的公司：到2002年被收购时，PayPal已经拥有超过1500万注册用户，交易额突破30亿美元。这不是运气。马斯克在泡沫最疯狂时，建造了唯一一个生意模式跑通的互联网银行业务，而且他死磕技术细节，PayPal的反欺诈系统在当时领先整个行业，也启发了后来的Palantir出行。泡沫给马斯克的钱，变成了无法被泡沫破裂摧毁的东西。这1.8亿美元后来变成了什么？继续梭哈的马斯克，没有将这笔钱变成私人飞机和无人海岛，而是变成了下一场征程的弹药库。SpaceX的1亿美元启动资金，Tesla的700万美元首轮领投，以及SolarCity的种子轮。2008年SpaceX三次发射失败时，是这笔原始积累撑过了至暗时刻。第一次互联网泡沫，马斯克全身而退，还带走了三个巨头的种子。02 减碳泡沫：2008-20212010年6月，马斯克的Tesla登陆纳斯达克，IPO价格17美元，估值约17亿美元。彼时这家公司只卖出了不到1500辆Roadster，账面亏损，产能地狱，距离盈利遥遥无期。华尔街的分析师们在报告里委婉地写道：“这是一次基于信仰的估值。”回头看，戈尔的《难以忽视的真相》塑造了一场历史上最大的全球减碳的社会运动，将电动车，电池，太阳能产业的目标推的更远。每家光伏，风电，电池，电车公司都拿到了海量融资和巨大的估值，但并不是所有人都能够从隧道另一头的微光里走出来。对于马斯克来说，真正的狂欢从2019年开始。那年Tesla上海超级工厂以创纪录的速度建成投产——从破土到第一辆车下线只用了168天。中国市场的闸门打开了。当年Tesla产量36.5万辆，较上年增长50%。2020年尽管全球疫情肆虐，Tesla仍然交付了49.9万辆，离马斯克吹出去的“50万”只差一毫米。股价从2019年初的约60美元（拆股调整后）一路涨到2021年11月的峰值407美元。市值一度突破1.2万亿美元。这是什么概念？丰田、大众、通用、福特、本田——全球前十大传统车企市值加起来，不如一家Tesla。而当时Tesla的年销量不到他们的十分之一。绿色能源叙事席卷全球。ESG基金规模在2021年突破2.7万亿美元。欧盟宣布2035年禁售燃油车。拜登政府通过《通胀削减法案》，给电动车补贴7500美元。碳积分交易成为一门大生意——2020年Tesla仅靠出售监管积分就入账15.8亿美元，2021年进一步增至17.5亿美元。大量电动车初创公司在这个窗口期完成SPAC上市，市值一度比肩老牌车企，随后一个接一个破产清算——Lordstown、Proterra、Arrival，名单长得令人悲伤。马斯克是上百家电动车公司中唯一一个活下来的。马斯克是怎么做的？他没有套现离场，也没有市值管理，而是充分拥抱泡沫，在市值历史高位的时候，连续3次股权增发。第一次融资：2020年2月，Tesla以每股767美元的价格增发，募集23亿美元。当时股价处于历史高位，稀释极低。第二次融资：2020年9月，股价继续飙升，再次增发50亿美元。零票息，因为用的是股权。成本几乎为零。第三次融资：2020年12月，又融了50亿美元。一年三次增发，Tesla累计募集超过120亿美元。这些钱在估值最高点被锁定，转身成为了特斯拉电动车庞大帝国的燃料。钱去了哪里？上海工厂二期、柏林超级工厂、德克萨斯超级工厂、4680电池产线、Dojo超级计算机。到2021年底，Tesla年产能已从2019年的不足40万辆暴增至超过150万辆。全球四大工厂布局完成。2170电池成本下降至每千瓦时100美元以下。FSD Beta开始在北美推送。特斯拉建成了真正的壁垒：垂直整合的制造能力、全球化的产能布局、自研芯片和自动驾驶算法、覆盖主要市场的超充网络。同时，还有一个隐秘的金手指在发挥作用：碳积分和监管额度。当其他车企还在为排放超标焦头烂额时，Tesla在2020-2022年累计靠出售碳积分赚了超过45亿美元。这笔几乎是纯利润的收入，全部砸进了新工厂和新产线建设。这意味着什么？全球变暖泡沫叙事的迅速启动和终结——来自ESG叙事、绿色补贴、碳积分的高估值溢价——被马斯克系统性地转化成了无法被复制的物理资产，但其他的几百家清洁能源公司企业，最终一个也没有活下来。2022年，美联储暴力加息，科技股泡沫破裂。Tesla股价从高点回撤超过70%，市值蒸发超过8000亿美元。大量电动车初创公司灰飞烟灭。Tesla股价暴跌，马斯克个人财富缩水2000亿美元，创下吉尼斯纪录。但公司本身的业务没垮。2022年全年，特斯拉交付131万辆，同比增长40%。2023年交付181万辆。毛利率始终维持在20%以上。马斯克的现金流充裕到可以花440亿美元收购Twitter（后来的X）来掌握舆论场。2025年，Tesla全年交付突破290万辆。能源业务收入首次超过150亿美元。FSD在美国三个州实现真正的无监督运营。Optimus机器人开始在超级工厂内部替代部分重复性劳动。到2026年第一季度，Tesla账上现金加短期投资合计447亿美元。绿色泡沫再次如期退潮，但这一次，Tesla带着肌肉，再次，活了下来。03 AI泡沫：2023-2026如果说前两次马斯克是在“借泡沫”，第三次，他直接在“造泡沫”。2022年11月，OpenAI发布ChatGPT。随后18个月，全球AI投资狂潮启动。微软累计投入超过130亿美元，谷歌、Meta、亚马逊跟进千亿级资本开支。NVIDIA数据中心收入2024财年达到475亿美元，同比增长217%，市值突破3万亿美元。一级市场更疯狂。Anthropic估值在12个月内翻了5倍，达到600亿美元。任何带着“AI”标签的初创公司都能在A轮拿到上亿美元。用亚马逊创始人贝索斯的话说：没有一个AI方向拿不到融资，这一切都太像2000年了。模型层积累的火药库一触即发，点燃的是算力层的硬件庞大需求。马斯克看在眼里。2023年7月，他宣布成立xAI，口号是“理解宇宙的真实本质”。团队从OpenAI、DeepMind、谷歌挖来顶尖研究者。十个月内，xAI建成Colossus超算集群，部署10万张H100 GPU。速度固然震惊业界。更重要的是，马斯克的高效部署，让xAI接住了接下来暴涨的算力租赁需求，直接完成了现金流闭环。但这只是序曲。真正的大手笔在2026年。2026年2月，马斯克宣布将xAI并入SpaceX。交易结构精心设计：xAI资产（团队、算力集群、Grok模型）注入SpaceX，换取SpaceX约25%股权。这一操作的精妙之处在于叙事叠加。SpaceX本就拥有Starlink这颗现金牛——2025年Starlink活跃用户突破400万，年收入超过120亿美元，毛利超过60%。可回收火箭的发射成本是竞争对手的十分之一，全球LEO星座无出其右。现在再加上“AI算力基础设施”的故事。逻辑链是这样的：Starlink卫星网络可以成为全球分布式AI推理的计算节点；低轨星座天然适合低延迟AI服务；SpaceX的发射能力可以部署天基AI算力；Grok模型可以通过Starlink为全球用户提供实时AI服务。资本市场瞬间沸腾。“太空+AI”——还有什么比这更性感的叙事？云计算是二维的，Starlink+AI是三维的。亚马逊AWS花了十五年建成的东西，SpaceX可以在五年内用更宏大的方式重构。2026年6月，SpaceX以1.77万亿美元估值完成IPO，融资规模约750-860亿美元，成为人类历史上最大规模上市案。IPO后，SpaceX现金储备轻松突破1000亿美元。加上Tesla的447亿美元，马斯克系两家公司合计现金超过1500亿美元。这个数字有多离谱？苹果2025年底现金储备约800亿美元。谷歌约1100亿美元。沙特阿美约600亿美元。1500亿美元意味着，马斯克控制的企业现金池，相当于一个中等国家的外汇储备。而这一切是在做多期权定价最高的时候完成的，锁进去的，是AI泡沫的全额溢价。但他不是在“退出AI”。Grok仍然在迭代,Grok4.5很快与一线模型能力打平。Colossus集群仍在扩张，Starlink的AI服务仍在推进。他只是把AI装进了SpaceX这个有真实现金流和硬科技壁垒的壳子里，然后用最高估值把未来的钱全部融到了现在。如果AI泡沫破裂——诸多迹象显示这正在发生：随着开源模型的步步紧逼，以及越来越多的企业应用方开始质疑AI的投资回报率，多家AI公司收入预期大幅下调，企业AI应用落地缓慢，GPU租赁价格也开始松动——SpaceX还有Starlink的现金流撑着，有NASA的发射合同垫底，以及算力租赁的高ROI挺着。如果AI泡沫不破，继续膨胀——SpaceX拥有算力、模型、分发网络，是AI时代最核心的基础设施，估值还能更高。马斯克已经赢了，无论最终如何。04  泡沫猎手的底层代码2同样的剧本上演了三遍。人们迷恋于叙事的宏大，却往往忽略什么才是真正让马斯克三次全身而退的“底层代码”。1999年，当所有人都涌入电商、门户、内容社区这些最热门赛道时，马斯克选择了在线支付——交易的基础设施。无论互联网走向何方，人们总要付钱。2008年，当传统车企还在嘲笑电动车是玩具时，马斯克押注了电池、电驱、软件——未来汽车工业的地基。无论谁造电动车，都绕不开这些。2023年，当AI创业者争相开发聊天机器人和AI绘图时，马斯克又一次选择了基础设施——算力、模型、分发网络。这不只是判断力，更是某种近乎偏执的信念：赌叙事，更要赌护城河。泡沫之所以是泡沫，是因为叙事远远跑在了现实前面。但在马斯克的剧本里，泡沫只是燃料，目的地始终是那座需要用十年以上才能建成的城堡。PayPal的网络效应，Tesla的制造壁垒，SpaceX的算力成本结构——这些东西不会因为估值涨跌而消失。它们是物理世界的存在，是时间铸成的护城河。而另一面，他确实冷酷。每一次泡沫最热时，他都毫不犹豫地进行了大规模资本操作。2020-2021年Tesla三次高位增发。2026年SpaceX在市场巅峰完成IPO。叙事越是光芒万丈，他越要抓紧兑现。从不犹豫，从不多情。这笔钱并没有被挥霍或者囤积，而是迅速砸进了更长期的工程：上海工厂从荒地到投产，168天；Colossus超算集群从立项到运行，10个月。用泡沫养基建，用叙事换时间。“泡沫的钱建真生意”——这才是他的真正信条。这也是为什么他能第三次全身而退，而大多数“叙事型企业家”在泡沫退潮时连裤衩都不剩。2026年7月，SpaceX股价从IPO后的高点回落了15%。有分析师开始质疑1.77万亿估值是否合理——Starlink的增长天花板在哪里？AI业务何时能贡献实质营收？发射市场的规模是否被高估？马斯克在X上发了一条动态：“关注十年后，不是十天后。”配图是星舰第四次试飞时，超重型助推器被发射塔“筷子”稳稳夹住的那个瞬间。泡沫终会退去。筹码已经落地，牌局仍将继续。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCG":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"09766":0.6,"SNK":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"LOFF":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"SPCM":0.6,"07366":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"SPCH":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"07766":0.6,"SSPC":0.6,"SPCU":0.6,"SPAL":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"SPCF":0.6,"09366":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"TSLA":2,"SPCQ":0.6,"SPCX":2,"TSLW":0.6,"SPAX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":587904392007808,"gmtCreate":1784562880000,"gmtModify":1784562881493,"author":{"id":"3496403814458854","authorId":"3496403814458854","name":"几米one","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a508ce500224d141376ddbecf58e58","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3496403814458854","idStr":"3496403814458854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/587904392007808","repostId":"2652221980","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2652221980","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1784556349,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2652221980?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-20 22:05","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"中概互联网巨头已触底？伯恩斯坦：AI成本被过度悲观解读，重点关注腾讯","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2652221980","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"伯恩斯坦认为，中概互联网板块最悲观阶段或已过去，市场对AI推理成本的担忧被明显放大。随着腾讯Hy3发布、阿里云增长提速，板块估值修复条件正在积累。其中，腾讯仍是首选标的，目标价780港元，较当前股价仍有约69%上涨空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>中国互联网板块在经历上半年深度调整后，正迎来一轮情绪修复。</p>\n<p>据追风交易台，伯恩斯坦最新研究报告认为，<strong>市场对AI推理成本的悲观解读已严重失真，叠加<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>Hy3模型发布及阿里云增长超预期等催化剂，板块估值已从2022至2023年的历史低谷水平出现反弹，风险收益比有所改善。</strong></p>\n<p><strong>腾讯Hy3模型的发布以及小微助手开始向用户推送，是近期板块情绪回暖的核心驱动力。</strong></p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦分析师Robin Zhu在报告中指出，此前市场流传的部分AI成本叙事——例如平台将需要无限期补贴推理成本——已属&#34;严重失实且过度悲观&#34;。与此同时<strong>，阿里云第二季度营收增速加速至40%中段区间，电商利润亦好于预期，共同推动了板块整体反弹。</strong></p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦维持腾讯、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">Boss直聘</a>的&#34;跑赢大市&#34;评级。其中腾讯目标价780港元，对应当前股价约有69%的上行空间；京东目标价40美元，对应2026年预期市盈率仅约8.4倍。</p>\n<p>报告明确指出，腾讯当前11至12倍的远期市盈率估值偏低，随着各项利空因素逐步消散，股价有望重新回归2021年以来17至18倍的历史均值区间。</p>\n<h2>AI成本恐慌被过度放大，推理费用并非无底洞</h2>\n<p>围绕腾讯和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>的核心空头逻辑之一，在于AI推出将导致推理成本大幅侵蚀利润，而消费端AI变现却遥遥无期。</p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦对此提出反驳：<strong>推理成本的爆发式增长，前提是代理式（agentic）交易量和GMV同步起飞。</strong></p>\n<p>从数据来看，聊天机器人式对话通常仅消耗数百个token，而代理式交易平均消耗约5万个token。换言之，<strong>腾讯的token消耗量只有在代理式交易量真正放量时才会呈指数级增长</strong>。</p>\n<p>报告认为，用户参与度与变现增长之间存在时间差，但历史规律表明后者是&#34;何时发生&#34;而非&#34;是否发生&#34;的问题。</p>\n<p>在资本开支层面，腾讯过去12个月资本开支占营收比例为10.9%，低于阿里巴巴的12.3%。</p>\n<p>相对于经营现金流，腾讯的资本开支扩张空间远大于阿里巴巴。<strong>阿里云方面，第二季度营收增速加速至40%中段，低双位数的利润率意味着35%至40%的增量现金利润率，阿里巴巴亦表示年内将继续推进算力价格上调。</strong></p>\n<h2>腾讯AI战略轮廓渐清，Hy4时间表成关键观察点</h2>\n<p>伯恩斯坦在报告中详细梳理了腾讯AI布局的最新进展。Hy3模型在4月预览版基础上取得显著提升，小微助手亦已开始向用户灰度推送，早期反馈积极，并与主要安卓手机厂商签署的agent2agent协议形成协同。</p>\n<p>报告指出，腾讯Hy团队与微信团队此前保持独立运作，管理层解释称此举旨在避免相互依赖、防止一方延误拖累另一方。微信团队在此期间借助DeepSeek等<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01661\">中国前沿</a>模型推进产品迭代，元宝及Workbuddy的月活用户已达800至900万，为Hy3团队提供了用户反馈来源。</p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦预计，<strong>随着Hy4及后续模型性能持续提升，两个团队的协同设计程度将逐步加深。</strong>参照中国AI实验室参数规模平均扩大2至2.5倍的规律，Hy4预览版有望于年底前后发布。报告认为，腾讯在微信内希望实现的大多数AI功能，以现有代理式AI标准衡量相对直接，意味着自研模型将较快达到&#34;足够好&#34;的水平。</p>\n<p>在变现路径上，报告特别强调，微信小程序数万亿人民币的GMV是腾讯AI变现的核心机遇，通过商家侧实现货币化。这与西方市场投资者已基本放弃消费端AI变现预期的悲观情绪形成鲜明对比。</p>\n<h2>阿里巴巴业务重组提振估值，季节性催化剂值得关注</h2>\n<p>伯恩斯坦对阿里巴巴近期的业务架构调整持审慎乐观态度。将盒马从&#34;其他业务&#34;并入中国电商板块、将平头哥芯片业务纳入云计算板块，将有助于提升投资者重点关注的业务分部增速，在分类加总估值（SOTP）框架下具有正面意义。</p>\n<p>报告指出，Neocloud客户销售平头哥芯片并回租算力的安排，有助于降低阿里云报告口径的资本密集度，同时为外部芯片销售收入叙事提供支撑。此外，<strong>阿里巴巴持有约5%的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688825\">长鑫科技</a>股权，其潜在价值不容忽视。</strong></p>\n<p>历史规律同样值得关注：<strong>2024年和2025年，阿里巴巴股价均在9月云栖大会前后达到阶段性高点。</strong>伯恩斯坦认为，<strong>长鑫科技 IPO进展及云栖大会构成未来数月的重要催化剂窗口。</strong></p>\n<h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易</a>、京东及Boss直聘：低估值叠加盈利增长</h2>\n<p>在其他重点标的方面，伯恩斯坦对网易、京东和Boss直聘均持积极看法，核心逻辑在于估值偏低与盈利增长的组合。</p>\n<p>网易方面，《燃魂》（Sea of Remnants）将于7月23日国内上线，报告预计股价届时可能出现一定回调，但下半年营收低基数、加速回购、南向资金纳入预期以及《Ananta》后续消息，构成较为清晰的催化剂路径。伯恩斯坦回测数据显示，过去10年网易回购加速与随后股价表现之间存在高度相关性。</p>\n<p>京东和Boss直聘目前均以中个位数远期市盈率交易——后者剔除现金及投资后仅约4倍——而两家公司均维持两位数的盈利增长。<strong>伯恩斯坦上调了京东盈利预测，2026年非GAAP净利润预测较此前提升约8.8%，主要反映外卖业务亏损收窄快于预期及持续的利润率改善。</strong></p>\n<p>相比之下，<strong>报告对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>态度较为谨慎。</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>近期反弹后上行空间有限，且AI投入或仍处于早期阶段；拼多多管理层持续回避与投资者的资本回报沟通，被报告视为长期投资者面临的核心障碍。</p>\n<h2>估值仍接近历史低位，但修复条件正在积累</h2>\n<p>从整体估值来看，伯恩斯坦覆盖的中国互联网股票今年以来平均下跌约16%（含近期反弹），目前平均对应2026年和2027年预期市盈率分别为14.3倍和12.1倍，后者仅略高于2022至2023年的历史低点——彼时基本面受中国&#34;清零&#34;政策严重压制。</p>\n<p>自由现金流/企业价值收益率方面，腾讯和京东约为5%，网易约为10%，Boss直聘接近20%。京东、Boss直聘和拼多多的净现金均超过市值的40%，其中京东和Boss直聘管理层已积极回购股票。</p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦认为，<strong>腾讯当前低估值反映的是一系列&#34;当下合理但终将消散&#34;的担忧，包括游戏增长放缓及AI投入带来的费用压力。</strong>触发更明确反转信号的条件包括：经营利润预测触底回升、出现爆款新游戏（《三角洲行动》目前表现强劲），或Hy4发布真正平息AI能力争议。报告认为，随着上述因素逐步落地，腾讯股价不太可能长期停留在11至12倍远期市盈率的水平。</p>\n</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中概互联网巨头已触底？伯恩斯坦：AI成本被过度悲观解读，重点关注腾讯</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中概互联网巨头已触底？伯恩斯坦：AI成本被过度悲观解读，重点关注腾讯\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-20 22:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>中国互联网板块在经历上半年深度调整后，正迎来一轮情绪修复。</p>\n<p>据追风交易台，伯恩斯坦最新研究报告认为，<strong>市场对AI推理成本的悲观解读已严重失真，叠加<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>Hy3模型发布及阿里云增长超预期等催化剂，板块估值已从2022至2023年的历史低谷水平出现反弹，风险收益比有所改善。</strong></p>\n<p><strong>腾讯Hy3模型的发布以及小微助手开始向用户推送，是近期板块情绪回暖的核心驱动力。</strong></p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦分析师Robin Zhu在报告中指出，此前市场流传的部分AI成本叙事——例如平台将需要无限期补贴推理成本——已属&#34;严重失实且过度悲观&#34;。与此同时<strong>，阿里云第二季度营收增速加速至40%中段区间，电商利润亦好于预期，共同推动了板块整体反弹。</strong></p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦维持腾讯、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">Boss直聘</a>的&#34;跑赢大市&#34;评级。其中腾讯目标价780港元，对应当前股价约有69%的上行空间；京东目标价40美元，对应2026年预期市盈率仅约8.4倍。</p>\n<p>报告明确指出，腾讯当前11至12倍的远期市盈率估值偏低，随着各项利空因素逐步消散，股价有望重新回归2021年以来17至18倍的历史均值区间。</p>\n<h2>AI成本恐慌被过度放大，推理费用并非无底洞</h2>\n<p>围绕腾讯和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>的核心空头逻辑之一，在于AI推出将导致推理成本大幅侵蚀利润，而消费端AI变现却遥遥无期。</p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦对此提出反驳：<strong>推理成本的爆发式增长，前提是代理式（agentic）交易量和GMV同步起飞。</strong></p>\n<p>从数据来看，聊天机器人式对话通常仅消耗数百个token，而代理式交易平均消耗约5万个token。换言之，<strong>腾讯的token消耗量只有在代理式交易量真正放量时才会呈指数级增长</strong>。</p>\n<p>报告认为，用户参与度与变现增长之间存在时间差，但历史规律表明后者是&#34;何时发生&#34;而非&#34;是否发生&#34;的问题。</p>\n<p>在资本开支层面，腾讯过去12个月资本开支占营收比例为10.9%，低于阿里巴巴的12.3%。</p>\n<p>相对于经营现金流，腾讯的资本开支扩张空间远大于阿里巴巴。<strong>阿里云方面，第二季度营收增速加速至40%中段，低双位数的利润率意味着35%至40%的增量现金利润率，阿里巴巴亦表示年内将继续推进算力价格上调。</strong></p>\n<h2>腾讯AI战略轮廓渐清，Hy4时间表成关键观察点</h2>\n<p>伯恩斯坦在报告中详细梳理了腾讯AI布局的最新进展。Hy3模型在4月预览版基础上取得显著提升，小微助手亦已开始向用户灰度推送，早期反馈积极，并与主要安卓手机厂商签署的agent2agent协议形成协同。</p>\n<p>报告指出，腾讯Hy团队与微信团队此前保持独立运作，管理层解释称此举旨在避免相互依赖、防止一方延误拖累另一方。微信团队在此期间借助DeepSeek等<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01661\">中国前沿</a>模型推进产品迭代，元宝及Workbuddy的月活用户已达800至900万，为Hy3团队提供了用户反馈来源。</p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦预计，<strong>随着Hy4及后续模型性能持续提升，两个团队的协同设计程度将逐步加深。</strong>参照中国AI实验室参数规模平均扩大2至2.5倍的规律，Hy4预览版有望于年底前后发布。报告认为，腾讯在微信内希望实现的大多数AI功能，以现有代理式AI标准衡量相对直接，意味着自研模型将较快达到&#34;足够好&#34;的水平。</p>\n<p>在变现路径上，报告特别强调，微信小程序数万亿人民币的GMV是腾讯AI变现的核心机遇，通过商家侧实现货币化。这与西方市场投资者已基本放弃消费端AI变现预期的悲观情绪形成鲜明对比。</p>\n<h2>阿里巴巴业务重组提振估值，季节性催化剂值得关注</h2>\n<p>伯恩斯坦对阿里巴巴近期的业务架构调整持审慎乐观态度。将盒马从&#34;其他业务&#34;并入中国电商板块、将平头哥芯片业务纳入云计算板块，将有助于提升投资者重点关注的业务分部增速，在分类加总估值（SOTP）框架下具有正面意义。</p>\n<p>报告指出，Neocloud客户销售平头哥芯片并回租算力的安排，有助于降低阿里云报告口径的资本密集度，同时为外部芯片销售收入叙事提供支撑。此外，<strong>阿里巴巴持有约5%的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688825\">长鑫科技</a>股权，其潜在价值不容忽视。</strong></p>\n<p>历史规律同样值得关注：<strong>2024年和2025年，阿里巴巴股价均在9月云栖大会前后达到阶段性高点。</strong>伯恩斯坦认为，<strong>长鑫科技 IPO进展及云栖大会构成未来数月的重要催化剂窗口。</strong></p>\n<h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易</a>、京东及Boss直聘：低估值叠加盈利增长</h2>\n<p>在其他重点标的方面，伯恩斯坦对网易、京东和Boss直聘均持积极看法，核心逻辑在于估值偏低与盈利增长的组合。</p>\n<p>网易方面，《燃魂》（Sea of Remnants）将于7月23日国内上线，报告预计股价届时可能出现一定回调，但下半年营收低基数、加速回购、南向资金纳入预期以及《Ananta》后续消息，构成较为清晰的催化剂路径。伯恩斯坦回测数据显示，过去10年网易回购加速与随后股价表现之间存在高度相关性。</p>\n<p>京东和Boss直聘目前均以中个位数远期市盈率交易——后者剔除现金及投资后仅约4倍——而两家公司均维持两位数的盈利增长。<strong>伯恩斯坦上调了京东盈利预测，2026年非GAAP净利润预测较此前提升约8.8%，主要反映外卖业务亏损收窄快于预期及持续的利润率改善。</strong></p>\n<p>相比之下，<strong>报告对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>态度较为谨慎。</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>近期反弹后上行空间有限，且AI投入或仍处于早期阶段；拼多多管理层持续回避与投资者的资本回报沟通，被报告视为长期投资者面临的核心障碍。</p>\n<h2>估值仍接近历史低位，但修复条件正在积累</h2>\n<p>从整体估值来看，伯恩斯坦覆盖的中国互联网股票今年以来平均下跌约16%（含近期反弹），目前平均对应2026年和2027年预期市盈率分别为14.3倍和12.1倍，后者仅略高于2022至2023年的历史低点——彼时基本面受中国&#34;清零&#34;政策严重压制。</p>\n<p>自由现金流/企业价值收益率方面，腾讯和京东约为5%，网易约为10%，Boss直聘接近20%。京东、Boss直聘和拼多多的净现金均超过市值的40%，其中京东和Boss直聘管理层已积极回购股票。</p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦认为，<strong>腾讯当前低估值反映的是一系列&#34;当下合理但终将消散&#34;的担忧，包括游戏增长放缓及AI投入带来的费用压力。</strong>触发更明确反转信号的条件包括：经营利润预测触底回升、出现爆款新游戏（《三角洲行动》目前表现强劲），或Hy4发布真正平息AI能力争议。报告认为，随着上述因素逐步落地，腾讯股价不太可能长期停留在11至12倍远期市盈率的水平。</p>\n</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"89988":"阿里巴巴-WR","LU0164880469.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AC\" ACC","LU0348827113.USD":"ALLIANZ RCM CHINA \"AT\" ACC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3777472","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2652221980","content_text":"中国互联网板块在经历上半年深度调整后，正迎来一轮情绪修复。\n据追风交易台，伯恩斯坦最新研究报告认为，市场对AI推理成本的悲观解读已严重失真，叠加腾讯Hy3模型发布及阿里云增长超预期等催化剂，板块估值已从2022至2023年的历史低谷水平出现反弹，风险收益比有所改善。\n腾讯Hy3模型的发布以及小微助手开始向用户推送，是近期板块情绪回暖的核心驱动力。\n伯恩斯坦分析师Robin Zhu在报告中指出，此前市场流传的部分AI成本叙事——例如平台将需要无限期补贴推理成本——已属\"严重失实且过度悲观\"。与此同时，阿里云第二季度营收增速加速至40%中段区间，电商利润亦好于预期，共同推动了板块整体反弹。\n伯恩斯坦维持腾讯、阿里巴巴、网易、京东及Boss直聘的\"跑赢大市\"评级。其中腾讯目标价780港元，对应当前股价约有69%的上行空间；京东目标价40美元，对应2026年预期市盈率仅约8.4倍。\n报告明确指出，腾讯当前11至12倍的远期市盈率估值偏低，随着各项利空因素逐步消散，股价有望重新回归2021年以来17至18倍的历史均值区间。\nAI成本恐慌被过度放大，推理费用并非无底洞\n围绕腾讯和阿里巴巴的核心空头逻辑之一，在于AI推出将导致推理成本大幅侵蚀利润，而消费端AI变现却遥遥无期。\n伯恩斯坦对此提出反驳：推理成本的爆发式增长，前提是代理式（agentic）交易量和GMV同步起飞。\n从数据来看，聊天机器人式对话通常仅消耗数百个token，而代理式交易平均消耗约5万个token。换言之，腾讯的token消耗量只有在代理式交易量真正放量时才会呈指数级增长。\n报告认为，用户参与度与变现增长之间存在时间差，但历史规律表明后者是\"何时发生\"而非\"是否发生\"的问题。\n在资本开支层面，腾讯过去12个月资本开支占营收比例为10.9%，低于阿里巴巴的12.3%。\n相对于经营现金流，腾讯的资本开支扩张空间远大于阿里巴巴。阿里云方面，第二季度营收增速加速至40%中段，低双位数的利润率意味着35%至40%的增量现金利润率，阿里巴巴亦表示年内将继续推进算力价格上调。\n腾讯AI战略轮廓渐清，Hy4时间表成关键观察点\n伯恩斯坦在报告中详细梳理了腾讯AI布局的最新进展。Hy3模型在4月预览版基础上取得显著提升，小微助手亦已开始向用户灰度推送，早期反馈积极，并与主要安卓手机厂商签署的agent2agent协议形成协同。\n报告指出，腾讯Hy团队与微信团队此前保持独立运作，管理层解释称此举旨在避免相互依赖、防止一方延误拖累另一方。微信团队在此期间借助DeepSeek等中国前沿模型推进产品迭代，元宝及Workbuddy的月活用户已达800至900万，为Hy3团队提供了用户反馈来源。\n伯恩斯坦预计，随着Hy4及后续模型性能持续提升，两个团队的协同设计程度将逐步加深。参照中国AI实验室参数规模平均扩大2至2.5倍的规律，Hy4预览版有望于年底前后发布。报告认为，腾讯在微信内希望实现的大多数AI功能，以现有代理式AI标准衡量相对直接，意味着自研模型将较快达到\"足够好\"的水平。\n在变现路径上，报告特别强调，微信小程序数万亿人民币的GMV是腾讯AI变现的核心机遇，通过商家侧实现货币化。这与西方市场投资者已基本放弃消费端AI变现预期的悲观情绪形成鲜明对比。\n阿里巴巴业务重组提振估值，季节性催化剂值得关注\n伯恩斯坦对阿里巴巴近期的业务架构调整持审慎乐观态度。将盒马从\"其他业务\"并入中国电商板块、将平头哥芯片业务纳入云计算板块，将有助于提升投资者重点关注的业务分部增速，在分类加总估值（SOTP）框架下具有正面意义。\n报告指出，Neocloud客户销售平头哥芯片并回租算力的安排，有助于降低阿里云报告口径的资本密集度，同时为外部芯片销售收入叙事提供支撑。此外，阿里巴巴持有约5%的长鑫科技股权，其潜在价值不容忽视。\n历史规律同样值得关注：2024年和2025年，阿里巴巴股价均在9月云栖大会前后达到阶段性高点。伯恩斯坦认为，长鑫科技 IPO进展及云栖大会构成未来数月的重要催化剂窗口。\n网易、京东及Boss直聘：低估值叠加盈利增长\n在其他重点标的方面，伯恩斯坦对网易、京东和Boss直聘均持积极看法，核心逻辑在于估值偏低与盈利增长的组合。\n网易方面，《燃魂》（Sea of Remnants）将于7月23日国内上线，报告预计股价届时可能出现一定回调，但下半年营收低基数、加速回购、南向资金纳入预期以及《Ananta》后续消息，构成较为清晰的催化剂路径。伯恩斯坦回测数据显示，过去10年网易回购加速与随后股价表现之间存在高度相关性。\n京东和Boss直聘目前均以中个位数远期市盈率交易——后者剔除现金及投资后仅约4倍——而两家公司均维持两位数的盈利增长。伯恩斯坦上调了京东盈利预测，2026年非GAAP净利润预测较此前提升约8.8%，主要反映外卖业务亏损收窄快于预期及持续的利润率改善。\n相比之下，报告对美团和拼多多态度较为谨慎。美团近期反弹后上行空间有限，且AI投入或仍处于早期阶段；拼多多管理层持续回避与投资者的资本回报沟通，被报告视为长期投资者面临的核心障碍。\n估值仍接近历史低位，但修复条件正在积累\n从整体估值来看，伯恩斯坦覆盖的中国互联网股票今年以来平均下跌约16%（含近期反弹），目前平均对应2026年和2027年预期市盈率分别为14.3倍和12.1倍，后者仅略高于2022至2023年的历史低点——彼时基本面受中国\"清零\"政策严重压制。\n自由现金流/企业价值收益率方面，腾讯和京东约为5%，网易约为10%，Boss直聘接近20%。京东、Boss直聘和拼多多的净现金均超过市值的40%，其中京东和Boss直聘管理层已积极回购股票。\n伯恩斯坦认为，腾讯当前低估值反映的是一系列\"当下合理但终将消散\"的担忧，包括游戏增长放缓及AI投入带来的费用压力。触发更明确反转信号的条件包括：经营利润预测触底回升、出现爆款新游戏（《三角洲行动》目前表现强劲），或Hy4发布真正平息AI能力争议。报告认为，随着上述因素逐步落地，腾讯股价不太可能长期停留在11至12倍远期市盈率的水平。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.6,"FDNI":0.6,"SOCL":0.6,"BKF":0.6,"JEMA":0.6,"TCEHY":1.97,"TCHI":0.6,"AAXJ":0.6,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"09988":1.86,"ODDS":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"CXSE":0.6,"EMC":0.6,"ESPO":0.6,"LDEM":0.6,"00700":1.97,"KWEB":0.6,"XSOE":0.6,"FFEM":0.6,"BIDD":0.6,"HBBD.SI":0.6,"BABA":1.86,"JADE":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":582873510561112,"gmtCreate":1783334609016,"gmtModify":1783334610689,"author":{"id":"3496403814458854","authorId":"3496403814458854","name":"几米one","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a508ce500224d141376ddbecf58e58","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3496403814458854","idStr":"3496403814458854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/582873510561112","repostId":"2649801623","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2649801623","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"「金吾财讯」以精准用户需求为切入点，打造一站式港美股投资细分领域品牌。依托战略合作伙伴凤凰网财经，将港美股内容传播到全球华人圈。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"金吾财讯","id":"1086022552","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a93586c3b023ec6ebfed568990555c"},"pubTimestamp":1783332505,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2649801623?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-06 18:08","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"阿里巴巴(BABA)盘前扬升1.48% 阿里云以40.1%市占率稳居中国最大AI云服务厂商","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2649801623","media":"金吾财讯","summary":"金吾财讯 | 阿里巴巴 美股盘前扬升1.48%，最新报97.56美元，盘前成交额11.33亿美元。消息面上，沙利文新近发布的《开箱即用的AI云服务——2025中国全栈AI云服务市场报告》披露，2025年中国IaaS、PaaS、MaaS总市场规模达595.9亿元，其中阿里云总收入达239亿元，以40.1%的市场份额位列第一，超第二至第四名的总和，稳居中国最大AI云服务厂商。","content":"<html><body><p>金吾财讯 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>(BABA)美股盘前扬升1.48%，最新报97.56美元，盘前成交额11.33亿美元。今日(7月6日)港股收涨1.97%，收盘价95.95港元。消息面上，沙利文新近发布的《开箱即用的AI云服务——2025中国全栈AI云服务市场报告》披露，2025年中国IaaS、PaaS、MaaS总市场规模达595.9亿元，其中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里</a>云总收入达239亿元，以40.1%的市场份额位列第一，超第二至第四名的总和，稳居中国最大AI云服务厂商。报告表示，阿里云已实现“芯片-云-模型-推理”的全栈自研，并全面迈入Agentic Cloud时代，对云产品进行Skill化、MCP化和CLI化改造，使其成为Agent可直接调用的能力模块。在芯片和算力基础设施层，阿里发布了基于平头哥新一代AI芯片真武M890的128卡超节点服务器，通信时延低至百纳秒级，满足Agentic时代的并发推理和大模型训练需求。在模型层，阿里最近两个月连续发布Qwen3.7-Max旗舰模型和Qwen3.7-Plus多模态大模型，在多个权威榜单中取得SOTA成绩。在推理层，阿里云百炼构建了大规模GPU资源集群，有效提升GPU资源利用率，同时在上下文缓存、吞吐弹性调度等方面提供了完整的解决方案。在MaaS层，阿里云推出了为Agent而生的全新AI产品官网“千问云”，模型服务全面Skill、CLI化，可让Agent工具高效地用模型和开发AI应用。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里巴巴(BABA)盘前扬升1.48% 阿里云以40.1%市占率稳居中国最大AI云服务厂商</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里巴巴(BABA)盘前扬升1.48% 阿里云以40.1%市占率稳居中国最大AI云服务厂商\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086022552\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a93586c3b023ec6ebfed568990555c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">金吾财讯 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-06 18:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>金吾财讯 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>(BABA)美股盘前扬升1.48%，最新报97.56美元，盘前成交额11.33亿美元。今日(7月6日)港股收涨1.97%，收盘价95.95港元。消息面上，沙利文新近发布的《开箱即用的AI云服务——2025中国全栈AI云服务市场报告》披露，2025年中国IaaS、PaaS、MaaS总市场规模达595.9亿元，其中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里</a>云总收入达239亿元，以40.1%的市场份额位列第一，超第二至第四名的总和，稳居中国最大AI云服务厂商。报告表示，阿里云已实现“芯片-云-模型-推理”的全栈自研，并全面迈入Agentic Cloud时代，对云产品进行Skill化、MCP化和CLI化改造，使其成为Agent可直接调用的能力模块。在芯片和算力基础设施层，阿里发布了基于平头哥新一代AI芯片真武M890的128卡超节点服务器，通信时延低至百纳秒级，满足Agentic时代的并发推理和大模型训练需求。在模型层，阿里最近两个月连续发布Qwen3.7-Max旗舰模型和Qwen3.7-Plus多模态大模型，在多个权威榜单中取得SOTA成绩。在推理层，阿里云百炼构建了大规模GPU资源集群，有效提升GPU资源利用率，同时在上下文缓存、吞吐弹性调度等方面提供了完整的解决方案。在MaaS层，阿里云推出了为Agent而生的全新AI产品官网“千问云”，模型服务全面Skill、CLI化，可让Agent工具高效地用模型和开发AI应用。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.szfiu.com/news/20250107/NDViNTE0MThlOGIzNGVjYjVmZmFmNTJlOTIxNzAyOTY1ODYyNw==.png","relate_stocks":{"LU1051769294.HKD":"BGF EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"A6\"(HKDHDG) INC","LU1152091754.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - 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Cloud时代，对云产品进行Skill化、MCP化和CLI化改造，使其成为Agent可直接调用的能力模块。在芯片和算力基础设施层，阿里发布了基于平头哥新一代AI芯片真武M890的128卡超节点服务器，通信时延低至百纳秒级，满足Agentic时代的并发推理和大模型训练需求。在模型层，阿里最近两个月连续发布Qwen3.7-Max旗舰模型和Qwen3.7-Plus多模态大模型，在多个权威榜单中取得SOTA成绩。在推理层，阿里云百炼构建了大规模GPU资源集群，有效提升GPU资源利用率，同时在上下文缓存、吞吐弹性调度等方面提供了完整的解决方案。在MaaS层，阿里云推出了为Agent而生的全新AI产品官网“千问云”，模型服务全面Skill、CLI化，可让Agent工具高效地用模型和开发AI应用。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ONLN":0.6,"BABW":0.6,"09988":1.96,"DRAG":0.6,"BBYY":0.6,"BABU":0.6,"CLIX":0.6,"KBAB":0.6,"BABA":1.96,"BABX":0.6,"BABO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":580768111051288,"gmtCreate":1782819178805,"gmtModify":1782819180226,"author":{"id":"3496403814458854","authorId":"3496403814458854","name":"几米one","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a508ce500224d141376ddbecf58e58","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3496403814458854","idStr":"3496403814458854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/580768111051288","repostId":"580650180145720","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":580650180145720,"gmtCreate":1782790478280,"gmtModify":1782794480935,"author":{"id":"4087602178931600","authorId":"4087602178931600","name":"杨不留行","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae974067125cf4a8b3fe37be4a5b81f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087602178931600","idStr":"4087602178931600"},"themes":[],"title":"谐波减速器\"双寡头\"格局已定，来福谐波凭什么站上港股风口？","htmlText":"谐波减速器\"双寡头\"格局已定，来福谐波凭什么站上港股风口？ “机器人的灵魂在关节，关节的灵魂在减速器。” 6月30日，中国内地机器人传动部件制造商、18C新股来福谐波（03952）在港交所挂牌上市。 从2013年浙江嵊州一间小厂起步，到2026年叩响港交所大门，这家国产谐波减速器龙头的上市，恰逢人形机器人从概念走向量产的历史性窗口。 当一家公司的产品已经嵌入人形机器人的每一个关节，而人形机器人又恰好是2026年资本市场最滚烫的叙事——市场就必须重新评估它的价值了。 先说结论：来福谐波不是在卖零件，它是在卖机器人的\"关节\" 谐波减速器是什么？它是机器人关节里的核心传动部件，直接决定一台机器人的精度、负载能力和使用寿命。一个朴素但残酷的事实是：机器人的灵魂在关节，关节的灵魂在减速器。没有谐波减速器，人形机器人动起来简直痴人说梦。 来福谐波在这个赛道里的位置，用一组数据就能说清楚： 按2025年出货量计，中国机器人谐波减速器市场排名第二，市场份额21.4%。行业老大是科创板上市的绿的谐波，老二就是来福。两家加在一起，占去了市场的半壁江山，前五大厂商合计份额高达75.8%。 这是一个已经高度集中的“双寡头”格局，而寡头市场的特点向来是：新玩家极难挤进来。 更关键的细节在于人形机器人这条新赛道上的卡位。 截至2025年底，国内真正实现人形机器人用谐波减速器量产交付的制造商，只有来福谐波和绿的谐波。 也就是说当特斯拉Optimus和国内一批具身智能公司开始严肃讨论万台级量产时，能给它们稳定供应“关节”的人，全中国找不出第三家。 记住这个时点：截至目前，还没有任何一家成熟的人形机器人企业，能靠自己从零跑通谐波减速器的设计与规模化生产。这意味着，整机厂还在纠结算法和场景的时候，上游的关节供应商已经锁死了入场券。 参数层面，来福的底气同样硬。±15角秒的定位精度，超过10,000小时的使用寿","listText":"谐波减速器\"双寡头\"格局已定，来福谐波凭什么站上港股风口？ “机器人的灵魂在关节，关节的灵魂在减速器。” 6月30日，中国内地机器人传动部件制造商、18C新股来福谐波（03952）在港交所挂牌上市。 从2013年浙江嵊州一间小厂起步，到2026年叩响港交所大门，这家国产谐波减速器龙头的上市，恰逢人形机器人从概念走向量产的历史性窗口。 当一家公司的产品已经嵌入人形机器人的每一个关节，而人形机器人又恰好是2026年资本市场最滚烫的叙事——市场就必须重新评估它的价值了。 先说结论：来福谐波不是在卖零件，它是在卖机器人的\"关节\" 谐波减速器是什么？它是机器人关节里的核心传动部件，直接决定一台机器人的精度、负载能力和使用寿命。一个朴素但残酷的事实是：机器人的灵魂在关节，关节的灵魂在减速器。没有谐波减速器，人形机器人动起来简直痴人说梦。 来福谐波在这个赛道里的位置，用一组数据就能说清楚： 按2025年出货量计，中国机器人谐波减速器市场排名第二，市场份额21.4%。行业老大是科创板上市的绿的谐波，老二就是来福。两家加在一起，占去了市场的半壁江山，前五大厂商合计份额高达75.8%。 这是一个已经高度集中的“双寡头”格局，而寡头市场的特点向来是：新玩家极难挤进来。 更关键的细节在于人形机器人这条新赛道上的卡位。 截至2025年底，国内真正实现人形机器人用谐波减速器量产交付的制造商，只有来福谐波和绿的谐波。 也就是说当特斯拉Optimus和国内一批具身智能公司开始严肃讨论万台级量产时，能给它们稳定供应“关节”的人，全中国找不出第三家。 记住这个时点：截至目前，还没有任何一家成熟的人形机器人企业，能靠自己从零跑通谐波减速器的设计与规模化生产。这意味着，整机厂还在纠结算法和场景的时候，上游的关节供应商已经锁死了入场券。 参数层面，来福的底气同样硬。±15角秒的定位精度，超过10,000小时的使用寿","text":"谐波减速器\"双寡头\"格局已定，来福谐波凭什么站上港股风口？ “机器人的灵魂在关节，关节的灵魂在减速器。” 6月30日，中国内地机器人传动部件制造商、18C新股来福谐波（03952）在港交所挂牌上市。 从2013年浙江嵊州一间小厂起步，到2026年叩响港交所大门，这家国产谐波减速器龙头的上市，恰逢人形机器人从概念走向量产的历史性窗口。 当一家公司的产品已经嵌入人形机器人的每一个关节，而人形机器人又恰好是2026年资本市场最滚烫的叙事——市场就必须重新评估它的价值了。 先说结论：来福谐波不是在卖零件，它是在卖机器人的\"关节\" 谐波减速器是什么？它是机器人关节里的核心传动部件，直接决定一台机器人的精度、负载能力和使用寿命。一个朴素但残酷的事实是：机器人的灵魂在关节，关节的灵魂在减速器。没有谐波减速器，人形机器人动起来简直痴人说梦。 来福谐波在这个赛道里的位置，用一组数据就能说清楚： 按2025年出货量计，中国机器人谐波减速器市场排名第二，市场份额21.4%。行业老大是科创板上市的绿的谐波，老二就是来福。两家加在一起，占去了市场的半壁江山，前五大厂商合计份额高达75.8%。 这是一个已经高度集中的“双寡头”格局，而寡头市场的特点向来是：新玩家极难挤进来。 更关键的细节在于人形机器人这条新赛道上的卡位。 截至2025年底，国内真正实现人形机器人用谐波减速器量产交付的制造商，只有来福谐波和绿的谐波。 也就是说当特斯拉Optimus和国内一批具身智能公司开始严肃讨论万台级量产时，能给它们稳定供应“关节”的人，全中国找不出第三家。 记住这个时点：截至目前，还没有任何一家成熟的人形机器人企业，能靠自己从零跑通谐波减速器的设计与规模化生产。这意味着，整机厂还在纠结算法和场景的时候，上游的关节供应商已经锁死了入场券。 参数层面，来福的底气同样硬。±15角秒的定位精度，超过10,000小时的使用寿","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2be2a5d670b355a1097fdee51d662309","width":"800","height":"524"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0aea15525d880d428491f9a97d62dfe","width":"819","height":"389"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c1f5470640cb5b87b4d981b54aefafe","width":"1080","height":"530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/580650180145720","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":564370799865952,"gmtCreate":1778820250226,"gmtModify":1778820252290,"author":{"id":"3496403814458854","authorId":"3496403814458854","name":"几米one","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a508ce500224d141376ddbecf58e58","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3496403814458854","idStr":"3496403814458854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/564370799865952","repostId":"2635775120","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2635775120","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1778811334,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2635775120?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-15 10:15","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"大摩：亚洲准备好捕捉全球AI资本支出激增机遇 列出区内最新主题焦点股名单","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2635775120","media":"智通财经","summary":"人工智能资本支出的激增正推动人工智能赋能者的盈利增长，但该行亦看到涵盖国防及经济安全领域的更广泛资本开支项目，正在带动工业及大宗商品的机遇。报告称，亚洲具上游优势，已准备好捕捉全球AI资本支出激增带来的益处，以及能源安全与国防领域公共开支仍在积聚的上升趋势。按经济风险敞口组别拆解，该行发现亚洲/新兴市场指数中超过50%的权重来自运算、大宗商品、资本品及实物资产。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>发布研报称，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002540\">亚太</a>股市继续受惠于指数在运算、大宗商品及资本品方面的倾斜。人工智能资本支出的激增正推动人工智能赋能者的盈利增长，但该行亦看到涵盖国防及经济安全领域的更广泛资本开支项目，正在带动工业及大宗商品的机遇。</p><p>报告称，亚洲具上游优势，已准备好捕捉全球AI资本支出激增带来的益处，以及能源安全与国防领域公共开支仍在积聚的上升趋势。按经济风险敞口组别拆解，该行发现亚洲/新兴市场指数中超过50%的权重来自运算(半导体/硬件)、大宗商品、资本品及实物资产。运算层面的盈利增长依然亮眼，但估值与持仓也已相应上升。</p><p>该行指周期性板块具吸引力，与同业不同，维持对大宗商品板块的“增持”立场，该板块同样受惠于资本开支超级周期，且相较于历史水平及其他板块更具估值支持。同时，资本品板块拥有强劲的长期前景，但该行注意到其中位数估值与运算板块相近，而三年增长预期却较低。从策略角度，该行仍对工业板块持“增持”看法，但会继续与其主要行业团队合作，筛选出具潜力的机会清单。</p><p>大摩最新亚洲区主题焦点股名单表列如下：</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>(2330.TW)</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>(005930.KS)</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>(00700)</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>(300750.SZ)</p><p>台达电(2308.TW)</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01299\">友邦保险</a>(01299)</p><p>三菱重工(7011.JP)</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002371\">北方华创</a>(002371.SZ)</p><p>印度Larsen &amp; Toubro Ltd</p><p>斗山重工(034020.KS)</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603259\">药明康德</a>(02359)</p><p>韩华<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000901\">航天</a>(012450.KS)</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FANUY\">发那科</a>(6954.JP)</p><p>现代电气(267260.KS)</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300124\">汇川技术</a>(300124.SZ)</p><p>台湾纬颖(6669.TW)</p><p>泰国Gulf Development PCL</p><p>新加坡ST Engineering</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002028\">思源电气</a>(002028.SZ)</p><p>古河电工(5801.JP)</p><p>大成建设(1801.JP)</p><p>澳洲Lynas稀土</p><p>双日(2768.JP)</p><p>GS Yuasa(6674.JP)</p><p>澳洲GemLife Communities集团</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大摩：亚洲准备好捕捉全球AI资本支出激增机遇 列出区内最新主题焦点股名单</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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class=\"title\">\n大摩：亚洲准备好捕捉全球AI资本支出激增机遇 列出区内最新主题焦点股名单\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-15 10:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1442053.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，亚太股市继续受惠于指数在运算、大宗商品及资本品方面的倾斜。人工智能资本支出的激增正推动人工智能赋能者的盈利增长，但该行亦看到涵盖国防及经济安全领域的更广泛资本开支项目，正在带动工业及大宗商品的机遇。报告称，亚洲具上游优势，已准备好捕捉全球AI资本支出激增带来的益处，以及能源安全与国防领域公共开支仍在积聚的上升趋势。按经济风险敞口组别拆解，该行发现亚洲/新兴...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1442053.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"81299":"友邦保险-R","300124":"汇川技术","300750":"宁德时代","603259":"药明康德","LU0181495838.USD":"施罗德新兴亚洲A Acc","LU0456827905.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - China A (acc) SGD","LU1719994722.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1769817096.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (USD) INC","LU2039709279.SGD":"MANULIFE GF 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USD"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1442053.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2635775120","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，亚太股市继续受惠于指数在运算、大宗商品及资本品方面的倾斜。人工智能资本支出的激增正推动人工智能赋能者的盈利增长，但该行亦看到涵盖国防及经济安全领域的更广泛资本开支项目，正在带动工业及大宗商品的机遇。报告称，亚洲具上游优势，已准备好捕捉全球AI资本支出激增带来的益处，以及能源安全与国防领域公共开支仍在积聚的上升趋势。按经济风险敞口组别拆解，该行发现亚洲/新兴市场指数中超过50%的权重来自运算(半导体/硬件)、大宗商品、资本品及实物资产。运算层面的盈利增长依然亮眼，但估值与持仓也已相应上升。该行指周期性板块具吸引力，与同业不同，维持对大宗商品板块的“增持”立场，该板块同样受惠于资本开支超级周期，且相较于历史水平及其他板块更具估值支持。同时，资本品板块拥有强劲的长期前景，但该行注意到其中位数估值与运算板块相近，而三年增长预期却较低。从策略角度，该行仍对工业板块持“增持”看法，但会继续与其主要行业团队合作，筛选出具潜力的机会清单。大摩最新亚洲区主题焦点股名单表列如下：台积电(2330.TW)三星电子(005930.KS)腾讯控股(00700)宁德时代(300750.SZ)台达电(2308.TW)友邦保险(01299)三菱重工(7011.JP)北方华创(002371.SZ)印度Larsen & Toubro Ltd斗山重工(034020.KS)药明康德(02359)韩华航天(012450.KS)发那科(6954.JP)现代电气(267260.KS)汇川技术(300124.SZ)台湾纬颖(6669.TW)泰国Gulf Development PCL新加坡ST Engineering思源电气(002028.SZ)古河电工(5801.JP)大成建设(1801.JP)澳洲Lynas稀土双日(2768.JP)GS Yuasa(6674.JP)澳洲GemLife Communities集团","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"81299":0.6,"300124":1.9,"300750":1.9,"603259":1.87,"02359":1.87,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"TSM":1.87,"AAGIY":1.87,"TCHmain":0.6,"GEM.AU":1.82,"002028":1.9,"01299":1.87,"00700":1.87,"002371":1.9,"03750":1.9,"TCEHY":1.87}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":557352484275152,"gmtCreate":1777104083474,"gmtModify":1777104085859,"author":{"id":"3496403814458854","authorId":"3496403814458854","name":"几米one","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a508ce500224d141376ddbecf58e58","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3496403814458854","idStr":"3496403814458854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/557352484275152","repostId":"2629002035","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2629002035","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1776768540,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2629002035?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-21 18:49","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"腾讯控股：预计2026年5月13日公布一季报，预测一季度营业收入1973.00~2024.29亿元，同比增长9.6%~12.4%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2629002035","media":"朝阳永续","summary":"截至2026年04月20日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据：预测营业收入1973.00~2024.29亿元，同比增长9.6%~12.4%；预测净利润553.55~622.03亿元，同比增长15.8%~30.1%；预测经调整净利润658.00~701.66亿元，同比增长7.3%~14.4%。总收入预期上调1%，达到2000亿元人民币，同比增长11%，环比增长3%。国海证券认为：腾讯控股预计2026年第一季度营业收入将达到2007亿元，同比增长11%。毛利率预计为58%，毛利润和NON-IFRS归母净利润均同比增长15%和11%。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div><img cms-height=\"288.094\" cms-width=\"677\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20260421/483/w900h383/20260421/751a-57bce2614c57cf4580825b749b023a57.jpg\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L subpect-abstract\">1. 最近拟披露财报发布日</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>（00700.HK）将于2026年5月13日公布2026年一季报。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">2. </font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">腾讯控股</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">一季度业绩预期怎么样？</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">截至2026年04月20日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据：</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">预测营业收入1973.00~2024.29亿元，同比增长9.6%~12.4%；预测净利润553.55~622.03亿元，同比增长15.8%~30.1%；预测经调整净利润658.00~701.66亿元，同比增长7.3%~14.4%。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续港股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。</p><div><img cms-height=\"518.406\" cms-width=\"677\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20260421/307/w1080h827/20260421/668e-1aa0555cd06482cdb4f770aa28e6b56c.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">3. </font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">腾讯控股</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">最新卖方观点</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603162\">海通</a>国际证券认为：腾讯控股在2026年第一季度的业绩预期上调，主要得益于人工智能和云计算需求的激增以及游戏业务的强劲表现。总收入预期上调1%，达到2000亿元人民币，同比增长11%，环比增长3%。非国际财务报告准则下的营业利润预期也上调1%，达到770亿元人民币，同比增长11%，环比增长11%。云计算业务增长可能超出预期，得益于AI趋势下的行业需求上升、新AI云产品发布以及价格上涨。腾讯云自2月以来减少折扣，并在3月和4月对LLM API服务和AI基础设施进行了两轮官方价格上调。同时，腾讯发布了针对个人和企业用户的Claw系列产品。因此，我们上调了第一季度云业务收入预期，并预计其将进一步加速增长。游戏业务表现强劲，国内游戏在春节假期期间由《Delta Force》支撑增长，而新发布的《Roco Kingdom》表现超出预期，注册用户已超过3000万。海外游戏业务增长预计将放缓，但仍超过国内游戏。广告业务增长稳健，由AI增强、视频账户、小程序和搜索的强劲增长驱动。我们对2026年的利润预期略有上调，主要由于收入预期提高，第一季度没有重大新游戏发布，以及之前对芯片折旧费用的过度谨慎。我们对腾讯的估值和推荐保持不变，目标价上调至700港元。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">分业务来说：</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">1)云计算业务：由于AI趋势下的行业需求上升、新AI云产品发布和价格上涨，预计增长将超出预期。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">2)游戏业务：国内游戏在春节假期期间由《Delta Force》支撑增长，新发布的《Roco Kingdom》注册用户已超过3000万，预计首月收入约10亿元人民币。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">3)广告业务：由AI增强、视频账户、小程序和搜索的强劲增长驱动，预计增长稳健。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L \"><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000750\">国海证券</a></span><span></span>认为：</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">腾讯控股</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">预计2026年第一季度营业收入将达到2007亿元，同比增长11%。其中，增值服务和在线广告业务分别增长11%和18%，金融科技和企业服务增长9%。毛利率预计为58%，毛利润和NON-IFRS归母净利润均同比增长15%和11%。游戏业务国内外均表现强劲，尤其是海外市场增长24%。营销服务营收增长18%，视频号广告为主要增长点。金融科技与企业服务中，支付业务保持增长，云业务有望通过产品涨价改善利润率。</font></font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">（注：本文内容基于朝阳永续AI技术生成，文中相关盈利预测数据均来自朝阳永续盈利预测数据库）</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">风险提示：本文所示数据或案例仅供参考之用，不能作为未来投资依据。投资股票有风险，市场波动、公司业绩、政策因素等都可能导致股票价格波动。请您在投资前充分了解相关信息，并根据自身的风险承受能力做出投资决策。</p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>腾讯控股：预计2026年5月13日公布一季报，预测一季度营业收入1973.00~2024.29亿元，同比增长9.6%~12.4%</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n腾讯控股：预计2026年5月13日公布一季报，预测一季度营业收入1973.00~2024.29亿元，同比增长9.6%~12.4%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-21 18:49 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/hk/2026-04-21/doc-inhvhmie4897937.shtml><strong>朝阳永续</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1. 最近拟披露财报发布日腾讯控股（00700.HK）将于2026年5月13日公布2026年一季报。2. 腾讯控股一季度业绩预期怎么样？截至2026年04月20日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据：预测营业收入1973.00~2024.29亿元，同比增长9.6%~12.4%；预测净利润553.55~622.03亿元，同比增长15.8%~30.1%；预测经调整净利润658.00~701.66亿元，同比...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/hk/2026-04-21/doc-inhvhmie4897937.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","IE0003851619.USD":"BNY MELLON ASIAN EQUITY \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU2251237306.USD":"TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS DYNAMIC INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC A","LU0531970944.HKD":"HSBC GIF BRIC EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0164872284.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999014880.SGD":"大华全球优质成长基金Acc SGD","SG9999006514.SGD":"United Asia Consumer Fund SGD","LU2251237488.HKD":"TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS DYNAMIC INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC 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最近拟披露财报发布日腾讯控股（00700.HK）将于2026年5月13日公布2026年一季报。2. 腾讯控股一季度业绩预期怎么样？截至2026年04月20日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据：预测营业收入1973.00~2024.29亿元，同比增长9.6%~12.4%；预测净利润553.55~622.03亿元，同比增长15.8%~30.1%；预测经调整净利润658.00~701.66亿元，同比增长7.3%~14.4%。关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续港股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。3. 腾讯控股最新卖方观点海通国际证券认为：腾讯控股在2026年第一季度的业绩预期上调，主要得益于人工智能和云计算需求的激增以及游戏业务的强劲表现。总收入预期上调1%，达到2000亿元人民币，同比增长11%，环比增长3%。非国际财务报告准则下的营业利润预期也上调1%，达到770亿元人民币，同比增长11%，环比增长11%。云计算业务增长可能超出预期，得益于AI趋势下的行业需求上升、新AI云产品发布以及价格上涨。腾讯云自2月以来减少折扣，并在3月和4月对LLM API服务和AI基础设施进行了两轮官方价格上调。同时，腾讯发布了针对个人和企业用户的Claw系列产品。因此，我们上调了第一季度云业务收入预期，并预计其将进一步加速增长。游戏业务表现强劲，国内游戏在春节假期期间由《Delta Force》支撑增长，而新发布的《Roco Kingdom》表现超出预期，注册用户已超过3000万。海外游戏业务增长预计将放缓，但仍超过国内游戏。广告业务增长稳健，由AI增强、视频账户、小程序和搜索的强劲增长驱动。我们对2026年的利润预期略有上调，主要由于收入预期提高，第一季度没有重大新游戏发布，以及之前对芯片折旧费用的过度谨慎。我们对腾讯的估值和推荐保持不变，目标价上调至700港元。分业务来说：1)云计算业务：由于AI趋势下的行业需求上升、新AI云产品发布和价格上涨，预计增长将超出预期。2)游戏业务：国内游戏在春节假期期间由《Delta Force》支撑增长，新发布的《Roco Kingdom》注册用户已超过3000万，预计首月收入约10亿元人民币。3)广告业务：由AI增强、视频账户、小程序和搜索的强劲增长驱动，预计增长稳健。国海证券认为：腾讯控股预计2026年第一季度营业收入将达到2007亿元，同比增长11%。其中，增值服务和在线广告业务分别增长11%和18%，金融科技和企业服务增长9%。毛利率预计为58%，毛利润和NON-IFRS归母净利润均同比增长15%和11%。游戏业务国内外均表现强劲，尤其是海外市场增长24%。营销服务营收增长18%，视频号广告为主要增长点。金融科技与企业服务中，支付业务保持增长，云业务有望通过产品涨价改善利润率。（注：本文内容基于朝阳永续AI技术生成，文中相关盈利预测数据均来自朝阳永续盈利预测数据库）风险提示：本文所示数据或案例仅供参考之用，不能作为未来投资依据。投资股票有风险，市场波动、公司业绩、政策因素等都可能导致股票价格波动。请您在投资前充分了解相关信息，并根据自身的风险承受能力做出投资决策。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TCEHY":1.98,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"00700":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1960,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":593290564063560,"gmtCreate":1785860782902,"gmtModify":1785861816140,"author":{"id":"3496403814458854","authorId":"3496403814458854","name":"几米one","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a508ce500224d141376ddbecf58e58","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3496403814458854","idStr":"3496403814458854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fbe4e5ec0e737df7c46c018998dde4c","width":"860","height":"1178"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/593290564063560","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":983265442,"gmtCreate":1583288863586,"gmtModify":1704349353278,"author":{"id":"3496403814458854","authorId":"3496403814458854","name":"几米one","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a508ce500224d141376ddbecf58e58","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3496403814458854","idStr":"3496403814458854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>小米2019年度财报什么时候会发布呢，有没有知道的朋友","listText":"<a 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