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北山大仙

北山大仙

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2021-07-09

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2021-01-05

买买买

最惨的情境下，阿里巴巴值多少？高盛算了一下

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14:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"最惨的情境下，阿里巴巴值多少？高盛算了一下","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2101881618","media":"全天候科技","summary":"阿里巴巴作为电商巨头仍将是商家的首选渠道。","content":"<p>市场对反垄断监管的担忧已经使得<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>股价自10月高点跌去逾20%，但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>仍然对其维持买入评级。</p><p>高盛认为，当前阿里巴巴股价处于历史低位，反垄断监管对其业绩的负面影响或许不像市场想象的那么大，未来其存在估值恢复的空间。</p><p>周一发布的报告中，高盛设定“熊市情境”对阿里巴巴进行了一番估值，<b>认为即便是在最惨的情境下，阿里巴巴仍然每股值258美元，比周一收盘价高出13%。</b></p><p><b>高盛：不必过分担忧</b></p><p>高盛认为，监管风波之后随着市场大幅度抛售，阿里巴巴真实价值与其当前股价之间已经出现了明显的预期差。</p><p>该行表示，反垄断监管可能主要围绕阿里巴巴的排他性行为，但这对阿里巴巴各项业务收入及企业盈利影响，预计没市场担心的那么严重。</p><p>具体而言，<b>近期的监管风波对阿里巴巴最直接的影响，或是盈利增速的放缓和营业额的小幅下滑。但长期来看：</b></p><p><b>一来，</b>大多数商家为适应过去的竞争环境，与多个电商平台都有业务往来。高盛调查入驻天猫的149个主要品牌发现，77%的品牌在淘宝商城、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>等其他电商平台上均有设立旗舰店，仅11%的品牌仅在天猫独立销售，是否属于违反反垄断法的排他性行为及其严重程度仍有待调查判断，且类似调查通常“旷日持久”。</p><p><b>二来，</b>即便阿里巴巴被定论为违反反垄断法，长期来看，跨平台的投资回报率(ROI)始终是商家选择销售平台的关键因素，<b>而阿里巴巴作为电子商务巨头，能为消费者和商家提供可持续增值的能力，仍将是商家的首选渠道。</b></p><p><b>最惨也有13%能涨</b></p><p>尽管如此，高盛还是保守估计了阿里巴巴在极端“熊市情境”下的最悲观估值。</p><p>围绕电子商务和金融科技两大阿里巴巴的核心业务领域，以及税收等其他行业政策，高盛认为，<b>最惨的情境下阿里巴巴将出现以下三种情形：</b></p><ol><li>2022年广告佣金收入增速同比下降1%，鉴于部分成交额可能被其他电商平台所稀释，核心电商业务市盈率将由18倍下调至10倍；</li><li>金融业务估值对标传统金融机构，随着平台成交额增速放缓，贷款余额也会降低；</li><li>基于对中国税务机关继续加强平台间数据共享的预期，阿里巴巴将不再享受此前减按15%征收企业所得税的税收优惠，所有业务线税率升至25%。</li></ol><p>高盛表示，上述三条都是极端情境假设，尤其情形1和情形3出现的概率非常之低。</p><p><b>但考虑到阿里巴巴目前股价处于低点，比12个月远期价格中值低了2个标准差，又结合上述提到的各项因素，高盛认为：即便是在这样的“熊市”情境下，阿里巴巴美股未来12个月目标价也能达到258美元，较周一收盘价高出13%。</b></p><p>而正常情形下，高盛估算的未来12个月基准目标价为362美元，比当前股价高出52%。</p><p>与此同时，去年12月28日阿里巴巴宣布股票回购计划由60亿美元扩大至100亿美元，也将为其股价下行提供保护垫。</p>","source":"awtmt_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n最惨的情境下，阿里巴巴值多少？高盛算了一下\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-05 14:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://awtmt.com/articles/3615913><strong>全天候科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>市场对反垄断监管的担忧已经使得阿里巴巴股价自10月高点跌去逾20%，但高盛仍然对其维持买入评级。高盛认为，当前阿里巴巴股价处于历史低位，反垄断监管对其业绩的负面影响或许不像市场想象的那么大，未来其存在估值恢复的空间。周一发布的报告中，高盛设定“熊市情境”对阿里巴巴进行了一番估值，认为即便是在最惨的情境下，阿里巴巴仍然每股值258美元，比周一收盘价高出13%。高盛：不必过分担忧高盛认为，监管风波之后...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://awtmt.com/articles/3615913\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/b798e062-1369-43a9-9035-33d6f2f394e7.jpg","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛","BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-SW"},"source_url":"https://awtmt.com/articles/3615913","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2101881618","content_text":"市场对反垄断监管的担忧已经使得阿里巴巴股价自10月高点跌去逾20%，但高盛仍然对其维持买入评级。高盛认为，当前阿里巴巴股价处于历史低位，反垄断监管对其业绩的负面影响或许不像市场想象的那么大，未来其存在估值恢复的空间。周一发布的报告中，高盛设定“熊市情境”对阿里巴巴进行了一番估值，认为即便是在最惨的情境下，阿里巴巴仍然每股值258美元，比周一收盘价高出13%。高盛：不必过分担忧高盛认为，监管风波之后随着市场大幅度抛售，阿里巴巴真实价值与其当前股价之间已经出现了明显的预期差。该行表示，反垄断监管可能主要围绕阿里巴巴的排他性行为，但这对阿里巴巴各项业务收入及企业盈利影响，预计没市场担心的那么严重。具体而言，近期的监管风波对阿里巴巴最直接的影响，或是盈利增速的放缓和营业额的小幅下滑。但长期来看：一来，大多数商家为适应过去的竞争环境，与多个电商平台都有业务往来。高盛调查入驻天猫的149个主要品牌发现，77%的品牌在淘宝商城、拼多多、京东等其他电商平台上均有设立旗舰店，仅11%的品牌仅在天猫独立销售，是否属于违反反垄断法的排他性行为及其严重程度仍有待调查判断，且类似调查通常“旷日持久”。二来，即便阿里巴巴被定论为违反反垄断法，长期来看，跨平台的投资回报率(ROI)始终是商家选择销售平台的关键因素，而阿里巴巴作为电子商务巨头，能为消费者和商家提供可持续增值的能力，仍将是商家的首选渠道。最惨也有13%能涨尽管如此，高盛还是保守估计了阿里巴巴在极端“熊市情境”下的最悲观估值。围绕电子商务和金融科技两大阿里巴巴的核心业务领域，以及税收等其他行业政策，高盛认为，最惨的情境下阿里巴巴将出现以下三种情形：2022年广告佣金收入增速同比下降1%，鉴于部分成交额可能被其他电商平台所稀释，核心电商业务市盈率将由18倍下调至10倍；金融业务估值对标传统金融机构，随着平台成交额增速放缓，贷款余额也会降低；基于对中国税务机关继续加强平台间数据共享的预期，阿里巴巴将不再享受此前减按15%征收企业所得税的税收优惠，所有业务线税率升至25%。高盛表示，上述三条都是极端情境假设，尤其情形1和情形3出现的概率非常之低。但考虑到阿里巴巴目前股价处于低点，比12个月远期价格中值低了2个标准差，又结合上述提到的各项因素，高盛认为：即便是在这样的“熊市”情境下，阿里巴巴美股未来12个月目标价也能达到258美元，较周一收盘价高出13%。而正常情形下，高盛估算的未来12个月基准目标价为362美元，比当前股价高出52%。与此同时，去年12月28日阿里巴巴宣布股票回购计划由60亿美元扩大至100亿美元，也将为其股价下行提供保护垫。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":304141424,"gmtCreate":1605184745268,"gmtModify":1703836619903,"author":{"id":"3493107583505274","authorId":"3493107583505274","name":"北山大仙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f737851d2c5e41cd3ea47e0afd7780a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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