Anser的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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Anser

个人简介：社区产品经理

IP属地：北京

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2023-12-26

感恩节休市了～

感恩节休市了～

感恩节休市了～

2023-09-26

TigerGPT staging

2023-03-21

$第一共和银行(FRC)$ 利空出尽，跌无可跌

2023-03-17

$第一共和银行(FRC)$ 赚小钱，丢大肉

2022-07-06

优质资产上车机会？

2022-06-10

$恒生指数(HSI)$继续看多

@许亚鑫:A50震荡上行节奏不变，聚焦今夜CPI数据！

2022-06-07

$中国10年期国债收益率(CN10Y.BOND)$走着

2022-06-06

$BOSS直聘(BZ)$ 放开放开

2022-06-06

$滴滴(DIDI)$牛回速归

2022-04-26

$MET.HK 20220530 142.50 CALL$ 指望这个了

2021-07-28

牛市信仰？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-27

2021-05-20

$贝壳(BEKE)$盘前-10%，大家可以用钱投票支持一波「难而正确的事」了

2021-05-06

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@少帅Pro:一年可以挣一台霸道的农民

2021-03-22

这个数据还不好看嘛？为什么还跌？[呆住]

新氧2020年Q4营收4.25亿元，同比增18.6%

2020-10-30

今天这大盘也真的是拉胯

2020-09-08

今晚迎接瀑布

2020-07-07

【悬赏600虎币】你持有的第一只股票是什么？聊聊你和它的故事吧

想听听大家初进股市时的故事，A股、港美不限哈～本人之前玩过两年A股，在港美股这一块算是纯新手小白，虎币不多，有故事的我尽量都给哈，截止本周五（7.10）晚21:30美股开盘～先说我自己的：第一只A股股票是$京东方A(000725)$，因为以前看新闻听说过是做国产面板的，有国家和地方扶持而且竞争力不断增强，管理层还高位增持，最关键的是：股价（绝对值）便宜，一手只要几百块钱😂 5.69买完马上就上了6块，谁知道开心没多久，就遇上了中美毛衣摩擦A股转熊，之后两年加仓摊薄成本，解套清仓还小赚一点～第一只港股是$小米集团-W(01810)$，因为是雷校董学弟，自己和朋友们生活中使用很多小米产品。当时没赶上打新，在股价从22回落之后抢在17.4进了场，原以为是抄底，谁知道是接刀子，之后跌跌不休直到现在还没解套，幸好买得不多，装死也无所谓，希望雷校董能早日实现让我们翻倍赚回来的承诺吧😅模拟盘哈哈哈

【悬赏600虎币】你持有的第一只股票是什么？聊聊你和它的故事吧

2020-07-07

2020.07.07 复盘笔记 by 江无焱

年轻人的第一次套牢，离解套不远了！ 2020-07-07 成本现价浮动收益小米集团-W(01810) 17.444 14.780 -15.27% $小米集团-W(01810)$

2020.07.07 复盘笔记 by 江无焱

2020-07-02

思摩尔能复制中烟上市的辉煌吗？$思摩尔国际(06969)$$中烟香港(06055)$对电子烟产业会有什么影响？

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$贝壳(BEKE)$</a>盘前-10%，大家可以用钱投票支持一波「难而正确的事」了","text":"$贝壳(BEKE)$盘前-10%，大家可以用钱投票支持一波「难而正确的事」了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130053564","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2060,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":105870523,"gmtCreate":1620293229462,"gmtModify":1620293229462,"author":{"id":"3492748977889419","authorId":"3492748977889419","name":"Anser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f50fe2635b2303cd4d32e8f851077a6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105870523","repostId":"377575227","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":377575227,"gmtCreate":1619540095969,"gmtModify":1619540095969,"author":{"id":"3461111818041475","authorId":"3461111818041475","name":"少帅Pro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22d11e2c326fbab8693d00a9f4a85d25","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"一年可以挣一台霸道的农民","htmlText":"和上面照片中，这位农民大哥，一起吃了一顿饭。1.他是村委会成员，胸前的D章是前一天参加D员代表会时候带的。他说，现在开会不带徽章，会处罚。中国的基层动员能力可见一斑啊！2.种地都是机械化。如果放开让开垦的话，“一年可以挣一台霸道”。但现在的的情况是，不让过度开垦耕地，得保留林地和草场。所以这位大哥一年挣不到30万。3.现在耕地的租金是一年每亩1200元。所以，如果谁家有1000亩土地，一年可以躺着收120万。农村或者牧区，有1000亩土地的，也不算少。4.我记得小时候，谁家是农村户口，是要受到歧视的，那个时候，城市户口的封皮是红色的，农村户口的封皮是蓝色的。不过后来从征地开始，农村户口开始吃香了。我有个同学是北京昌平农村的。他一次说，他经常教育侄子外甥女，让他们好好学习。我说，你是不是这么教的：当年我寒窗苦读12载，考上了211大学，别人玩游戏谈女友的时候，我仍然继续认真读书，毕业后，加班996，年年部门优秀员工。直到后来，遇到村里拆迁，分了三套房子，日子才过的滋润。这是真事。他在拆迁政策下来后，突击生了个二胎，就三套房子了。虽说在北五环往北，那也是北京啊。全部卖掉，能够在武汉光谷买套大房子，还能剩个两三百万。要我，我就这么做。5.最近认识一个服务员，打算离开北京了。回老家办养牛场，和闺蜜一人投资50万，供100万。如果建起来，当地政府会给建牛棚一定的补贴。她说，牛肉价格稳定，另外不像猪、鸡，那么容易大面积的死亡。算了下，比北京当白领挣得多。我现在怎么看，都是北京白领挣得最少啊。","listText":"和上面照片中，这位农民大哥，一起吃了一顿饭。1.他是村委会成员，胸前的D章是前一天参加D员代表会时候带的。他说，现在开会不带徽章，会处罚。中国的基层动员能力可见一斑啊！2.种地都是机械化。如果放开让开垦的话，“一年可以挣一台霸道”。但现在的的情况是，不让过度开垦耕地，得保留林地和草场。所以这位大哥一年挣不到30万。3.现在耕地的租金是一年每亩1200元。所以，如果谁家有1000亩土地，一年可以躺着收120万。农村或者牧区，有1000亩土地的，也不算少。4.我记得小时候，谁家是农村户口，是要受到歧视的，那个时候，城市户口的封皮是红色的，农村户口的封皮是蓝色的。不过后来从征地开始，农村户口开始吃香了。我有个同学是北京昌平农村的。他一次说，他经常教育侄子外甥女，让他们好好学习。我说，你是不是这么教的：当年我寒窗苦读12载，考上了211大学，别人玩游戏谈女友的时候，我仍然继续认真读书，毕业后，加班996，年年部门优秀员工。直到后来，遇到村里拆迁，分了三套房子，日子才过的滋润。这是真事。他在拆迁政策下来后，突击生了个二胎，就三套房子了。虽说在北五环往北，那也是北京啊。全部卖掉，能够在武汉光谷买套大房子，还能剩个两三百万。要我，我就这么做。5.最近认识一个服务员，打算离开北京了。回老家办养牛场，和闺蜜一人投资50万，供100万。如果建起来，当地政府会给建牛棚一定的补贴。她说，牛肉价格稳定，另外不像猪、鸡，那么容易大面积的死亡。算了下，比北京当白领挣得多。我现在怎么看，都是北京白领挣得最少啊。","text":"和上面照片中，这位农民大哥，一起吃了一顿饭。1.他是村委会成员，胸前的D章是前一天参加D员代表会时候带的。他说，现在开会不带徽章，会处罚。中国的基层动员能力可见一斑啊！2.种地都是机械化。如果放开让开垦的话，“一年可以挣一台霸道”。但现在的的情况是，不让过度开垦耕地，得保留林地和草场。所以这位大哥一年挣不到30万。3.现在耕地的租金是一年每亩1200元。所以，如果谁家有1000亩土地，一年可以躺着收120万。农村或者牧区，有1000亩土地的，也不算少。4.我记得小时候，谁家是农村户口，是要受到歧视的，那个时候，城市户口的封皮是红色的，农村户口的封皮是蓝色的。不过后来从征地开始，农村户口开始吃香了。我有个同学是北京昌平农村的。他一次说，他经常教育侄子外甥女，让他们好好学习。我说，你是不是这么教的：当年我寒窗苦读12载，考上了211大学，别人玩游戏谈女友的时候，我仍然继续认真读书，毕业后，加班996，年年部门优秀员工。直到后来，遇到村里拆迁，分了三套房子，日子才过的滋润。这是真事。他在拆迁政策下来后，突击生了个二胎，就三套房子了。虽说在北五环往北，那也是北京啊。全部卖掉，能够在武汉光谷买套大房子，还能剩个两三百万。要我，我就这么做。5.最近认识一个服务员，打算离开北京了。回老家办养牛场，和闺蜜一人投资50万，供100万。如果建起来，当地政府会给建牛棚一定的补贴。她说，牛肉价格稳定，另外不像猪、鸡，那么容易大面积的死亡。算了下，比北京当白领挣得多。我现在怎么看，都是北京白领挣得最少啊。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e381506f9884fb19edaf52427c74500a","width":"688","height":"387"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377575227","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359464911,"gmtCreate":1616420897433,"gmtModify":1616420897433,"author":{"id":"3492748977889419","authorId":"3492748977889419","name":"Anser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f50fe2635b2303cd4d32e8f851077a6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这个数据还不好看嘛？为什么还跌？[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"这个数据还不好看嘛？为什么还跌？[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"这个数据还不好看嘛？为什么还跌？[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359464911","repostId":"1157923333","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1157923333","pubTimestamp":1616405698,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157923333?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-22 17:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"新氧2020年Q4营收4.25亿元，同比增18.6%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157923333","media":"钛媒体","summary":"3月22日，互联网医美服务平台新氧科技发布截至2020年12月31日第四季度及全年未经审计财务业绩。财报数据显示，2020年第四季度，新氧科技总收入4.25亿元，同比增长18.6%，创公司上市以来单季","content":"<p>3月22日，互联网医美服务平台<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">新氧</a>科技发布截至2020年12月31日第四季度及全年未经审计财务业绩。</p><p>财报数据显示，2020年第四季度，新氧科技总收入4.25亿元，同比增长18.6%，创公司上市以来单季度收入新高。毛利率85.0%，在去年同期83.7%的基础上实现增长。非美国通用会计准则净利润6220万元人民币。</p><p>第四季度，新氧移动端的平均月活跃用户（“ MAU”）达到890万，较2019年同期的370万增长142.3%。新氧科技董事长兼CEO金星表示，第四季度，用户数的增长主要得益于不断丰富的平台内容以及VR看店和视频面诊等创新服务的推出。</p><p>同期，新氧科技平台上的付费医疗机构数量为4746家，较2019年同期的3378家增长40.5％；预约服务的付费用户总数为194769，新氧平台促成的医美服务交易总额为9.693亿元。</p><p>2020年全年，新氧科技总收入12.95亿元，同比增长12.4%。2020年四个季度平均月活跃用户量同比增速均超过100%。</p><p>2020年，新氧研发投入及人员开支2.3亿元，占总收入比重约18%，同比增长超过29%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1275be58a82b1efdea79ff9f105af90\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></p><p></p>","source":"taimeiti","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>新氧2020年Q4营收4.25亿元，同比增18.6%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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class=\"title\">\n新氧2020年Q4营收4.25亿元，同比增18.6%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 17:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tmtpost.com/nictation/5112225.html><strong>钛媒体</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3月22日，互联网医美服务平台新氧科技发布截至2020年12月31日第四季度及全年未经审计财务业绩。财报数据显示，2020年第四季度，新氧科技总收入4.25亿元，同比增长18.6%，创公司上市以来单季度收入新高。毛利率85.0%，在去年同期83.7%的基础上实现增长。非美国通用会计准则净利润6220万元人民币。第四季度，新氧移动端的平均月活跃用户（“ MAU”）达到890万，较2019年同期的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tmtpost.com/nictation/5112225.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e4f2c33fdf09817295d6b7567a2792f","relate_stocks":{"SY":"新氧"},"source_url":"https://www.tmtpost.com/nictation/5112225.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157923333","content_text":"3月22日，互联网医美服务平台新氧科技发布截至2020年12月31日第四季度及全年未经审计财务业绩。财报数据显示，2020年第四季度，新氧科技总收入4.25亿元，同比增长18.6%，创公司上市以来单季度收入新高。毛利率85.0%，在去年同期83.7%的基础上实现增长。非美国通用会计准则净利润6220万元人民币。第四季度，新氧移动端的平均月活跃用户（“ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">$中国恒大(03333)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$好未来(TAL)$</a>","listText":"又一季帝都大雨，又一时股市大跌，上一轮改革中押对方向成功逆袭的融创已离场、恒大在爆雷，而看得见的手再次挥向教育、房企、赴美中概……此时此地灰犀牛与黑天鹅共舞，没有比此刻更适合重读戴老板四年前这篇文章的了。投资人们的脑海中也应再次响起那句振聋发聩的发问：「赌国运成功的人，有曾被亏待过吗？」<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">$中国恒大(03333)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a><a 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19:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场大跌时，莫做股市里的“投降派”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155005642","media":"苏宁金融研究院","summary":"人们不愿慢慢变富。","content":"<p>作者：薛洪言</p>\n<p>这两天股市持续大跌，市场加速分化，价值股继续杀跌，平安股价正从60元跌向50元。与此同时，科创、军工等板块则表现出超强的抗跌性，甚至不跌反涨，越来越多的投资者加速转换阵营，反过来进一步加速市场分化。</p>\n<p>在这种情况下，价值投资策略大幅跑输市场，趋势投资开始备受青睐。很多投资者一边批判价值投资，一边将价值股割肉卖出，转战芯片、军工、新能源等赛道股。如某位读者所说，「现在投资芯片、军工、新能源等赛道股，买了就能赚钱，平安、万科等价格再低又如何，时间成本耗不起」。</p>\n<p>一句「时间成本耗不起」，便成为追涨杀跌的最好理由。价值投资之难，就难在这里，正如巴菲特的经典总结，「人们不愿慢慢变富」。</p>\n<p><b>可投资者满心期待立马赚钱时，买涨卖跌，换来换去，甘做股市中的「投降派」，恰恰又赚不到钱。</b></p>\n<p>霍华德·马克斯曾提出股市「三阶段」论，无论熊市还是牛市，其演绎过程都会经历三个阶段。</p>\n<p>以牛市为例，在牛市第一阶段，股票低估，市场一片悲观，只有少数人敢于买入并持有。到了第二阶段，基本面出现好转，越来越多的人买入，股价回归合理水平，价值回归时出现了明显的赚钱效应，让市场愈发乐观；于是，就进入第三阶段，市场对未来的预期越来越好，「**点不是梦、**点是牛市起点」等言论主导市场，诱发越来越多的人买入，股市急涨，加速赶顶，直至物极必反，熊市降临。</p>\n<p>熊市三阶段刚好相反，第一阶段，股价高位回落，只有少数人坚定逃离，多数人视下跌为抄底机会；到了第二阶段，基本面开始恶化，越来越多的人卖出，股价从高估跌至合理水平，但下跌带来的亏钱效应，让市场愈发悲观；接着进入第三阶段，市场预期越来越差，任何消息都被解读为坏消息，越来越多的人开始割肉卖出，股市步入恐慌下跌时期，加速寻底，直至物极必反，牛市降临。</p>\n<p><b>股市中的「投降派」，主要发生在第一阶段和第三阶段。</b></p>\n<p>在熊市第三阶段和牛市第一阶段，「投降派」的表现是股票拿不住，越跌越心慌，最后因恐慌而清空持仓。当这些人纷纷卖出股票后，剩下的多是坚定持有者，卖方力量枯竭，慢慢就跌不动了，熊市第三阶段转变成牛市第一阶段。此时，「投降派」刚刚割肉卖出，坚定远离市场，也会错失牛市第一阶段的低估买入机会。</p>\n<p>在牛市第三阶段和熊市第一阶段，「投降派」的表现是高位买入，前期镇定观望，对牛市行情视而不见，现在发现周围很多人都赚到了钱，觉得不能打败市场就加入市场，于是放弃抵抗、追高买入。当这些人纷纷追高买入后，市场买方力量开始枯竭，慢慢就涨不动了，牛市第三阶段开始转变为熊市第一阶段。此时，「投降派」仍沉浸在牛市赚钱效应中，坚定看好股市，把下跌视作抄底机会，越跌越买，仓位越来越重，直至深度套牢。</p>\n<p>可见，<b>股市里的「投降派」总是卖在低点、买在高点。道理很好懂，但落到投资实践中，很多人依旧会陷入这种怪圈。</b></p>\n<p>回到当前A股市场，科创、军工是否已到牛市第三阶段还不好说，相比历史表现，当前市盈率水平虽不低估，但仍较为合理。不过，市场中一大批价值股，估值水平确已跌至历史低点。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/750c6bd3d77f2257d8defc9fc4121a4f\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>根据霍华德的三阶段论，熊市走到第三阶段，越来越多的持有人卖出，卖方力量日益枯竭，股价随时可能触底回升。这个时候，若转换阵营，恐成了股市里的「投降派」。</p>\n<p>很多人将「别人贪婪我恐惧，别人恐惧我贪婪」奉为圭臬，但在市场大跌之时，有多少人还敢于贪婪地买入呢？</p>","source":"lsy1568689437122","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场大跌时，莫做股市里的“投降派”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场大跌时，莫做股市里的“投降派”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-28 19:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yqe388wR1xtXcKoa8cKp1w><strong>苏宁金融研究院</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：薛洪言\n这两天股市持续大跌，市场加速分化，价值股继续杀跌，平安股价正从60元跌向50元。与此同时，科创、军工等板块则表现出超强的抗跌性，甚至不跌反涨，越来越多的投资者加速转换阵营，反过来进一步加速市场分化。\n在这种情况下，价值投资策略大幅跑输市场，趋势投资开始备受青睐。很多投资者一边批判价值投资，一边将价值股割肉卖出，转战芯片、军工、新能源等赛道股。如某位读者所说，「现在投资芯片、军工、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yqe388wR1xtXcKoa8cKp1w\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a97a16afe8e75d415a74db18ceb0a4c","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yqe388wR1xtXcKoa8cKp1w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155005642","content_text":"作者：薛洪言\n这两天股市持续大跌，市场加速分化，价值股继续杀跌，平安股价正从60元跌向50元。与此同时，科创、军工等板块则表现出超强的抗跌性，甚至不跌反涨，越来越多的投资者加速转换阵营，反过来进一步加速市场分化。\n在这种情况下，价值投资策略大幅跑输市场，趋势投资开始备受青睐。很多投资者一边批判价值投资，一边将价值股割肉卖出，转战芯片、军工、新能源等赛道股。如某位读者所说，「现在投资芯片、军工、新能源等赛道股，买了就能赚钱，平安、万科等价格再低又如何，时间成本耗不起」。\n一句「时间成本耗不起」，便成为追涨杀跌的最好理由。价值投资之难，就难在这里，正如巴菲特的经典总结，「人们不愿慢慢变富」。\n可投资者满心期待立马赚钱时，买涨卖跌，换来换去，甘做股市中的「投降派」，恰恰又赚不到钱。\n霍华德·马克斯曾提出股市「三阶段」论，无论熊市还是牛市，其演绎过程都会经历三个阶段。\n以牛市为例，在牛市第一阶段，股票低估，市场一片悲观，只有少数人敢于买入并持有。到了第二阶段，基本面出现好转，越来越多的人买入，股价回归合理水平，价值回归时出现了明显的赚钱效应，让市场愈发乐观；于是，就进入第三阶段，市场对未来的预期越来越好，「**点不是梦、**点是牛市起点」等言论主导市场，诱发越来越多的人买入，股市急涨，加速赶顶，直至物极必反，熊市降临。\n熊市三阶段刚好相反，第一阶段，股价高位回落，只有少数人坚定逃离，多数人视下跌为抄底机会；到了第二阶段，基本面开始恶化，越来越多的人卖出，股价从高估跌至合理水平，但下跌带来的亏钱效应，让市场愈发悲观；接着进入第三阶段，市场预期越来越差，任何消息都被解读为坏消息，越来越多的人开始割肉卖出，股市步入恐慌下跌时期，加速寻底，直至物极必反，牛市降临。\n股市中的「投降派」，主要发生在第一阶段和第三阶段。\n在熊市第三阶段和牛市第一阶段，「投降派」的表现是股票拿不住，越跌越心慌，最后因恐慌而清空持仓。当这些人纷纷卖出股票后，剩下的多是坚定持有者，卖方力量枯竭，慢慢就跌不动了，熊市第三阶段转变成牛市第一阶段。此时，「投降派」刚刚割肉卖出，坚定远离市场，也会错失牛市第一阶段的低估买入机会。\n在牛市第三阶段和熊市第一阶段，「投降派」的表现是高位买入，前期镇定观望，对牛市行情视而不见，现在发现周围很多人都赚到了钱，觉得不能打败市场就加入市场，于是放弃抵抗、追高买入。当这些人纷纷追高买入后，市场买方力量开始枯竭，慢慢就涨不动了，牛市第三阶段开始转变为熊市第一阶段。此时，「投降派」仍沉浸在牛市赚钱效应中，坚定看好股市，把下跌视作抄底机会，越跌越买，仓位越来越重，直至深度套牢。\n可见，股市里的「投降派」总是卖在低点、买在高点。道理很好懂，但落到投资实践中，很多人依旧会陷入这种怪圈。\n回到当前A股市场，科创、军工是否已到牛市第三阶段还不好说，相比历史表现，当前市盈率水平虽不低估，但仍较为合理。不过，市场中一大批价值股，估值水平确已跌至历史低点。\n\n根据霍华德的三阶段论，熊市走到第三阶段，越来越多的持有人卖出，卖方力量日益枯竭，股价随时可能触底回升。这个时候，若转换阵营，恐成了股市里的「投降派」。\n很多人将「别人贪婪我恐惧，别人恐惧我贪婪」奉为圭臬，但在市场大跌之时，有多少人还敢于贪婪地买入呢？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1997,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":650568354,"gmtCreate":1679383218278,"gmtModify":1679383220619,"author":{"id":"3492748977889419","authorId":"3492748977889419","name":"Anser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f50fe2635b2303cd4d32e8f851077a6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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