坐实预言家哈哈的个人主页 - 老虎社区

坐实预言家哈哈

坐实预言家哈哈

个人简介：一号哨位狙击手，光辉女郎爱好者，提莫启蒙英雄

IP属地：辽宁

42关注

196粉丝

2主题

0勋章

坐实预言家哈哈

04-10

$黄金主连 2406(GCmain)$ 套死猪

坐实预言家哈哈

04-08

$黄金主连 2406(GCmain)$ 见顶

坐实预言家哈哈

01-31

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 上

坐实预言家哈哈

2023-02-05

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 多

坐实预言家哈哈

2022-06-15

直接750吧。

一场灾难性的衰退不可避免？什么事才能让美联储“回心转意”

坐实预言家哈哈

2022-06-15

就这水平，垃圾

孙伟：券商单日涨幅超3%-4%时卖出，胜率超90%，行情持久性不强，建议左侧布局

坐实预言家哈哈

2022-06-13

$SP500指数主连 2206(ESmain)$今晚反红，长下引线

坐实预言家哈哈

2022-06-13

$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$低开高走

坐实预言家哈哈

2022-03-17

$恒生科技指数主连 2203(HTImain)$ 有点像穿头破脚

坐实预言家哈哈

2022-03-15

$恒生科技指数主连 2203(HTImain)$ 空头回补

坐实预言家哈哈

2022-03-14

$贝壳(BEKE)$多空双杀

坐实预言家哈哈

2022-03-14

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$扑街

坐实预言家哈哈

2022-02-17

$巴里克黄金(GOLD)$$VIX波动率主连 2203(VIXmain)$ $黄金主连 2204(GCmain)$ 北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格称，如果获得批准，新的战斗群将部署在罗马尼亚和黑海地区。 (路透)

坐实预言家哈哈

2022-02-15

$黄金主连 2204(GCmain)$ 6666666

坐实预言家哈哈

2021-02-12

$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$真的烦，好好的价值投资被那邦拉仇恨饿wsb搅乱了局面。及时止盈出局了。本来想拿证件长线，短期不能跟趋势作对

坐实预言家哈哈

2021-02-11

$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$财报呢，被公司吃了？

坐实预言家哈哈

2021-02-11

$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$今天啥时候出财报

坐实预言家哈哈

2021-02-10

$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$等上21，来不及解释了。

坐实预言家哈哈

2021-02-04

$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$22都没到，你有脸跌？马上大麻各州合法了，想碰瓷谁呢？拜振华概念股

坐实预言家哈哈

2021-02-04

$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$苟庄尼玛买菜必超级翻倍，你姥姥跳广场舞抢不到C位。[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

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多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622202481","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":689029167,"gmtCreate":1655296888363,"gmtModify":1704861825056,"author":{"id":"3492686347425698","authorId":"3492686347425698","name":"坐实预言家哈哈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c03d9bdd280f8e27d90895c789708db0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"直接750吧。","listText":"直接750吧。","text":"直接750吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689029167","repostId":"2243967126","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2243967126","pubTimestamp":1655286666,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2243967126?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-15 17:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"一场灾难性的衰退不可避免？什么事才能让美联储“回心转意”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243967126","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"根据最新的基金经理调查结果显示，大致有5个因素能让美联储在2022年“暂停”或者“转向”。首先，近一半的受访者表示，如果通胀水平降至4%以下，美联储或将“转向”。其次，有20%的受访者表示，如果美国领取失业救济金的人数超过30万，那么美联储也可能会“转向”。再者，约15%的受访者提及，如果标普500指数跌至“美联储看跌期权”水平，可能将迫使美联储“暂停”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在美国通胀再度爆表之后，昔日被认为是激进举措的50基点加息似乎已经被人遗忘。现在不仅加息75基点几乎成为市场共识，甚至有华尔街大行喊出了加息100基点的大胆设想。</p><p>现在市场预期周三加息75基点的隐含概率已经飙升超100%，而几天前还是0%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8ffb3f7b1c74fc2f61f0e0d895f31fa\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>另外按照<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>的推算，美联储或将在6月和7月分别加息75基点，在9月加息50基点，随后在11月和12月再各自加息25个基点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a935517073f5bc3c7e8b5dad7cb85e2\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>虽然高盛也已经承认，一旦加息75基点，美国经济就将陷入衰退。<b>届时为了力挽狂澜，美联储除了再次降息之外别无选择。</b></p><p>并且按照市场预期，美联储会加快收紧政策，其关键隔夜利率将在明年年中达到4%的峰值。但这就意味着美国经济增长会陷入更深的困局之中，在某种程度上会超出政策制定者原本的目标，即经济“软着陆”，在不造成经济衰退的情况下降低通胀。</p><p><b>因此有市场声音预计，终端利率可能会低于市场目前的定价。</b></p><p>具体来说，<b>市场认为美联储在火速加息之后，在未来两年内或将至少降息三次（每次25基点），并将创下自金融危机以来的最多降息次数。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/218562dba45976e7f9b18614181b8a43\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>富达国际固定收益全球首席投资官Steve Ellis表示：</p><blockquote>我们现在正处于风暴的中心，通胀是其中的关键风险，但眼下整体形势正在转向衰退和硬着陆。因此美联储必须要小心，有很多因素在发挥作用。<b>美联储可能会经历过度收紧的过程，然后又不得不放松。</b></blockquote><p>对此市场还有声音补充道，<b>一旦美联储再度开启降息，那么降息的速度会更快，幅度也会更大，形象的比喻就是“上楼梯、下电梯”。</b></p><p>那么究竟什么情况能促使美联储停止加息，甚至开启降息？根据最新的基金经理调查结果显示，大致有5个因素能让美联储在2022年“暂停”或者“转向”。</p><p>首先，近一半的受访者表示，<b>如果通胀水平降至4%以下，美联储或将“转向”。</b>虽然这个情况在今天看来不太现实，但是在近几个月表现疲软的就业情况可能会让美国劳工统计局在计算CPI时更具“创造性”，并得出一些低于预期的结果。</p><p>其次，有20%的受访者表示，<b>如果美国领取失业救济金的人数超过30万，</b>那么美联储也可能会“转向”。</p><p>华尔街见闻此前提及，只要美国就业陷入困境，就能成为牵制美联储疯狂行动的最后一根绳索。对此高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius分析道，非农就业人数需要在今年下半年放缓至15万的月度平均水平，以此缓解工资-价格压力。</p><p>再者，约15%的受访者提及，<b>如果标普500指数跌至“美联储看跌期权”水平</b>（即央行往往会在市场下跌时释放流动性救市），可能将迫使美联储“暂停”。</p><p>另外，有大约10%的受访者认为，<b>一旦垃圾债利差突破500基点</b>，那么就足以结束美联储的加息行动。</p><p>最后，有少数受访者补充道，<b>如果油价能够跌破90美元</b>，那么美联储也能暂停脚步。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db26877795718c593f5b0bc18881db5e\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>关于“美联储看跌期权”有一点值得注意，那就是今年以来市场对美联储看跌期权的价格一直在逐月下调，现在来到了3453点的平均水平（标普500指数最新价为3735.48点）。</p><p>而美联储如果继续行动，那么标普500指数可能会继续下跌到一个令所有人都感到恐慌的水平，高盛对此的预计是3150点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bddd34ef2f8ea567af2daf3a5f0f61a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d4093b0d74a61546a977075e4de0de4\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>但是，野村证券首席经济学家辜朝明对此认为，市场参与者不应指望所谓的“央行看跌期权”为资产价格提供支撑。</p><p>在当前充足的储备机制下，仅靠普通加息不足以对抗通胀，这意味着美联储将需要借助资产价格下跌带来的反向财富效应来帮助遏制通胀。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一场灾难性的衰退不可避免？什么事才能让美联储“回心转意”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一场灾难性的衰退不可避免？什么事才能让美联储“回心转意”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-15 17:51 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3662045><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在美国通胀再度爆表之后，昔日被认为是激进举措的50基点加息似乎已经被人遗忘。现在不仅加息75基点几乎成为市场共识，甚至有华尔街大行喊出了加息100基点的大胆设想。现在市场预期周三加息75基点的隐含概率已经飙升超100%，而几天前还是0%。另外按照高盛的推算，美联储或将在6月和7月分别加息75基点，在9月加息50基点，随后在11月和12月再各自加息25个基点。虽然高盛也已经承认，一旦加息75基点，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3662045\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3662045","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243967126","content_text":"在美国通胀再度爆表之后，昔日被认为是激进举措的50基点加息似乎已经被人遗忘。现在不仅加息75基点几乎成为市场共识，甚至有华尔街大行喊出了加息100基点的大胆设想。现在市场预期周三加息75基点的隐含概率已经飙升超100%，而几天前还是0%。另外按照高盛的推算，美联储或将在6月和7月分别加息75基点，在9月加息50基点，随后在11月和12月再各自加息25个基点。虽然高盛也已经承认，一旦加息75基点，美国经济就将陷入衰退。届时为了力挽狂澜，美联储除了再次降息之外别无选择。并且按照市场预期，美联储会加快收紧政策，其关键隔夜利率将在明年年中达到4%的峰值。但这就意味着美国经济增长会陷入更深的困局之中，在某种程度上会超出政策制定者原本的目标，即经济“软着陆”，在不造成经济衰退的情况下降低通胀。因此有市场声音预计，终端利率可能会低于市场目前的定价。具体来说，市场认为美联储在火速加息之后，在未来两年内或将至少降息三次（每次25基点），并将创下自金融危机以来的最多降息次数。富达国际固定收益全球首席投资官Steve Ellis表示：我们现在正处于风暴的中心，通胀是其中的关键风险，但眼下整体形势正在转向衰退和硬着陆。因此美联储必须要小心，有很多因素在发挥作用。美联储可能会经历过度收紧的过程，然后又不得不放松。对此市场还有声音补充道，一旦美联储再度开启降息，那么降息的速度会更快，幅度也会更大，形象的比喻就是“上楼梯、下电梯”。那么究竟什么情况能促使美联储停止加息，甚至开启降息？根据最新的基金经理调查结果显示，大致有5个因素能让美联储在2022年“暂停”或者“转向”。首先，近一半的受访者表示，如果通胀水平降至4%以下，美联储或将“转向”。虽然这个情况在今天看来不太现实，但是在近几个月表现疲软的就业情况可能会让美国劳工统计局在计算CPI时更具“创造性”，并得出一些低于预期的结果。其次，有20%的受访者表示，如果美国领取失业救济金的人数超过30万，那么美联储也可能会“转向”。华尔街见闻此前提及，只要美国就业陷入困境，就能成为牵制美联储疯狂行动的最后一根绳索。对此高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius分析道，非农就业人数需要在今年下半年放缓至15万的月度平均水平，以此缓解工资-价格压力。再者，约15%的受访者提及，如果标普500指数跌至“美联储看跌期权”水平（即央行往往会在市场下跌时释放流动性救市），可能将迫使美联储“暂停”。另外，有大约10%的受访者认为，一旦垃圾债利差突破500基点，那么就足以结束美联储的加息行动。最后，有少数受访者补充道，如果油价能够跌破90美元，那么美联储也能暂停脚步。关于“美联储看跌期权”有一点值得注意，那就是今年以来市场对美联储看跌期权的价格一直在逐月下调，现在来到了3453点的平均水平（标普500指数最新价为3735.48点）。而美联储如果继续行动，那么标普500指数可能会继续下跌到一个令所有人都感到恐慌的水平，高盛对此的预计是3150点。但是，野村证券首席经济学家辜朝明对此认为，市场参与者不应指望所谓的“央行看跌期权”为资产价格提供支撑。在当前充足的储备机制下，仅靠普通加息不足以对抗通胀，这意味着美联储将需要借助资产价格下跌带来的反向财富效应来帮助遏制通胀。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":689029388,"gmtCreate":1655296830048,"gmtModify":1704861824883,"author":{"id":"3492686347425698","authorId":"3492686347425698","name":"坐实预言家哈哈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c03d9bdd280f8e27d90895c789708db0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"就这水平，垃圾","listText":"就这水平，垃圾","text":"就这水平，垃圾","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689029388","repostId":"2243905559","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2243905559","pubTimestamp":1655296396,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2243905559?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-15 20:33","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"孙伟：券商单日涨幅超3%-4%时卖出，胜率超90%，行情持久性不强，建议左侧布局","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243905559","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"重点关注财富管理相关券商。","content":"<html><body><p><strong>核心观点：</strong></p>\n<p>1、这两年市场形成了惯性思维，即券商一旦有单日暴涨行情，后面都会产生一个阴跌的回调。从最近两年来看，<strong>我们在券商单日涨幅超过3%或者4%的时候去卖出，胜率基本上超过90%，</strong>是不错的选择；但是，追涨往往就容易买在高点。</p>\n<p>2、<strong>长期看，券商目前确实是一个比较好的配置点位</strong>，但是短期大涨的情况下去激进追涨，后续面临的风险比较高。</p>\n<p>3、<strong>这一轮市场的大盘已经回到了3月份的平台位置</strong>，完全修复了疫情带来的短期冲击，但短期内迅速修复掉俄乌冲突影响还很困难，这两天涨得好的稳增长板块依然有回调压力，短期要谨慎，不要激进追涨。</p>\n<p>4、到目前为止，<strong>今年的市场走势基本处在稳增长和高成长两者的博弈之中，资金也在不断地犹豫，即并不是特别坚决地去做多一个方向。</strong></p>\n<p>5、在当前经济复苏相对不是特别明朗、全球流动性不是特别乐观的情况下，对于<strong>一些短期涨幅比较高的行业应该是有一定的获利了结，这可能是比较稳妥的交易</strong>。</p>\n<p>6、<strong>券商的持久性确实相对来说没那么好，在历史上也往往急涨慢跌</strong>。建议大家在<strong>左侧布局</strong>，在市场都在涨但券商横盘的时候，其实是一个比较舒服的位置。</p>\n<p>7、<strong>券商是市场的镜像，或者说是一个非常高贝塔的板块。如果大家没有预期市场会快速转牛，那么面对券商大涨应该保留一份谨慎。(券商的表现）目前还是当中的一个超跌反弹，还没有出现特别明显的反转迹象。8、</strong>券商短期投资看走势，长期看基本面，财富管理依然是券商未来很长时间的一个投资主线。</p>\n<p>9、<strong>银行目前是略微平盘的水平，中长期买银行是稳健选择，可能进攻性没有证券那么突出，</strong>但防守性和稳健性还不错。</p>\n<p>6月15日上午，南方基金经理孙伟在一场直播中就“证券到加仓黄金坑了吗”的主题作出以上判断。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/d8a6a28c-52fb-4964-b369-bfb3f6d6d19c.png\"/></p>\n<p>以下是投资作业本（微信ID：touzizuoyeben）整理的精华内容，分享给大家：</p>\n<h2><strong>券商迎来反攻行情</strong></h2>\n<p><strong>问：昨天券商的行情确实让人比较惊喜，为什么说昨天券商迎来了反攻行情呢？</strong></p>\n<p>孙伟：昨天的市场走势还是非常强劲的，A股走出了一个独立行情。</p>\n<p>从前天夜盘开始连续两天美股尤其是纳指都是大跌的，原因是美国的通胀已经超出了市场预期，使得大家强化了对美联储加息的预期。10年期的美债收益率也迅速飙升到百分之三左右，上涨非常快。</p>\n<p>这就导致A股的成长板块面临非常大的压力。昨天市场虽然整体很强，但实际上最近涨幅比较大的一些板块（比如TMT）还是下跌的。</p>\n<p>券商昨天的走势是这样的：开盘低开；到午盘的时候没能脱离大盘的引力，跟着大盘跌了百分之二点几；下午随着外盘的纳指期货及美债收益率的下行，市场出现了非常明显的反弹，券商更是强于大盘，昨天涨了百分之四点几。</p>\n<p>今天券商也再次上涨，刚才上涨了百分之四点几，走得非常强。这次可能不太一样是，券商的一些股性比较活跃的成分股连续几天涨停，非常提振市场士气。<strong>A股独立行情叠加券商罕见的连续上涨令市场再次活跃起来。</strong></p>\n<p>同时市场情绪产生了一定的憧憬，期待券商能够引领市场，使大盘在关键的位置上产生突破和反攻。</p>\n<h2><strong>券商单日涨幅超3%/4%时卖出，胜率超90%</strong></h2>\n<p><strong>问：现在是不是一个加仓的好时机？券商板块可以去追涨吗？</strong></p>\n<p>孙伟：<strong>这两年市场形成了惯性思维，即券商一旦有单日暴涨行情，后面都会产生一个阴跌的回调。</strong>从最近两年来看，我们在券商单日涨幅超过3%或者4%的时候去卖出，胜率基本上超过90%，是不错的选择；但是，<strong>追涨往往就容易买在高点</strong>。</p>\n<p>所以大家可以看到，虽然昨天券商整体涨了4%，甚至一些个股还是涨停的，但是券商的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a>产品却是净赎回的。这就说明市场还是延续了过去两年的交易策略，即<strong>大涨卖出、阴跌买入，这在过去两年看是一个非常有效的策略</strong>。</p>\n<p>如果从历史经验来看，在券商单日大涨比较多的情况下高胜率的选择就是卖出。但是，今天市场再次大幅上涨，其实超出了过去两年绝大部分历史情况形成的综合预期，也是比较提振市场情绪的。</p>\n<p>但大家需要注意的是，<strong>券商其实还是市场的镜像，或者说是一个非常高贝塔的板块。如果大家没有预期市场会快速转牛，那么面对券商大涨应该保留一份谨慎</strong>。</p>\n<h2><strong>大盘回到3月位置，稳增长板块还有回调压力</strong></h2>\n<p>这一轮市场的大盘已经回到了3月份的平台位置，完全修复了疫情带来的短期冲击。</p>\n<p>但是，要想在短期内迅速修复掉俄乌冲突的影响，目前来看还是比较困难的。A股的数据以及宏观、中观的经济数据，并没有出现特别明显的复苏迹象。大家看到5月份的社融数据在总量上基本是超预期的，但中长期来看贷款增速还是下行的。</p>\n<p>从这一点来说，短期之内说“经济预期见底”还为之过早。所以<strong>今天和昨天涨得好的基本还是稳增长的板块</strong>。然而，受到分母端如利率上行的影响，这些板块还是有回调压力的，尤其是后续可能有一些业绩的压力。</p>\n<p><strong>所以从交易层面来看，大家短期还是要保留一份谨慎，不要激进地去追涨。</strong></p>\n<p><strong>站在中长期的角度，不管从估值角度还是中长期的投资逻辑来看，券商目前确实是一个比较好的配置点位，但是短期大涨的情况下去激进追涨，后续面临的风险还是比较高的。</strong></p>\n<h2><strong>市场充斥着反转，板块持续性上涨较少</strong></h2>\n<p>问：最近稳增长板块涨得比较多，整个市场的风格会不会从高成长切换到稳增长？</p>\n<p>孙伟：今年市场的反转效应还是比较强的，某一个板块的持续性上涨比较少。</p>\n<p>5月份涨幅最高的是创业板指，电芯、TMT等都有比较可观的涨幅，而稳增长的表现很差。</p>\n<p>6月初市场又有一些变化，昨天和今天银行、证券、地产链、建筑等表现是比较好的。</p>\n<p>所以到目前为止，<strong>今年的市场走势基本处在稳增长和高成长两者的博弈之中，资金也在不断地犹豫，即并不是特别坚决地去做多一个方向</strong>。</p>\n<h2><strong>短期涨幅较高的行业获利了结较稳妥</strong></h2>\n<p><strong>这是今年的特点，和外围环境有很大关系，</strong>美联储在收水，通胀可能一时半会下不来，这是一个非常大的分母端的问题，会导致长久期的高成长板块面临比较大的冲击和压力。这一点对应到外围就是纳斯达克及恒生科技。当然恒生科技5月份并没有走得特别强，不像A股的创业板尤其是新能源那样无回调地上涨，而是走出了一个震荡的态势。所以这种情况下大家要更加谨慎。</p>\n<p>在当前经济复苏相对不是特别明朗、全球流动性不是特别乐观的情况下，对于<strong>一些短期涨幅比较高的行业应该是有一定的获利了结，这可能是比较稳妥的交易</strong>。</p>\n<p>如果大家憧憬的是2014年那样的牛市，我觉得可能是比较难的。</p>\n<p>在这种市场环境下<strong>大家还是要敢于在下跌的时候去买</strong>，不要觉得跌了之后市场会极度悲观，然后勤于砍仓，我觉得这是不可取的。此外，涨了也不要过于激进和乐观，觉得大牛市又来了，要有一份警惕，去平衡自己的仓位。</p>\n<p>如果你觉得经济目前还在交易稳增长的预期复苏，短期来说还比较早，那么一些稳增长的板块就值得大家去关注，比如大金融、地产链等。</p>\n<p>但是如果这些稳增长板块由于政策博弈、未来复苏博弈而短期炒作得过猛了，涨幅也比较高了，那就可以去减仓。比如之前年初地产也有一波快速的上涨，但后边下来得也比较厉害。</p>\n<p>所以<strong>一定要在最终的业绩兑现和市场情绪之前寻找平衡，不要过快被市场情绪牵着走，连涨几天之后可能还是会降温</strong>。</p>\n<h2><strong>券商行情持久性不强，建议左侧布局</strong></h2>\n<p><strong>问：这一轮整个券商板块的行情大概会持续多久</strong>？</p>\n<p>孙伟：这其实是策略上的选择问题。最近两年胜率比较高的策略，就是在券商暴涨的时候去减仓，在阴跌的时候慢慢买入和持续性地布局。</p>\n<p><strong>定投其实是一个非常好的策略，而止盈就是在市场情绪比较亢奋的时候进行，胜率可能有90%。</strong></p>\n<p>比如昨天大涨中很多资金就选择减仓了，但是今天还在持续性大涨，那可能就卖飞了。所以不需要极端，可以适当减一点仓位，保留了继续参与后续大涨行情的机会，同时根据历史经验此时适当止盈是一个胜率更高的选择。</p>\n<p><strong>至于持久性，券商的持久性确实相对来说没那么好，在历史上也往往急涨慢跌。</strong>即使短期有一个比较大的涨幅，如果你没有及时上车，再想追的时候就已经到了行情的中后端了，这个时候就很容易被套。</p>\n<p>所以我们还是<strong>建议大家在左侧布局，在市场都在涨但券商横盘的时候，其实是一个比较舒服的位置</strong>。</p>\n<p>比如5月份，整个5月券商就涨了不到1%，而一些高成长的板块上涨是非常可观的。这个时候券商也处于低位，估值比较便宜，此时<strong>慢慢买就比较舒服，等到真正涨起来再去追可能就比较难受了</strong>。</p>\n<h2><strong>地产和基建走势，关注业绩是否有支撑</strong></h2>\n<p>问：<strong>请您讲解一下基建和地产这一块。</strong></p>\n<p>孙伟：<strong>传统来看地产在每一轮稳增长都不会缺席，</strong>尤其在出口和消费面临比较大压力的情况下，地产政策可能更会有一定的放松预期，这一点在因城施策等方面都有一些迹象。</p>\n<p>地产1至5月份的销售数据还是不好，今年业绩仍不断下探。目前，在这些政策的微调后还是没有看到整个地产业绩的企稳。未来肯定会反弹和企稳的，但什么时候能够企稳，值得关注。</p>\n<p><strong>基建面临的问题和地产不太一样。</strong>地方隐性债务的约束其实是没有放松的，基建的发力可能是政府最可控的一个方向，但是也很难像过去的“四万亿刺激”那样，弹性可能不会那么大。</p>\n<p>大家还是要去关注真正后边是不是真的有一些业绩上面的印证，或者说宏观、中观数据上面的印证可能是比较重要的。</p>\n<h2><strong>券商目前是超跌反弹，还未出现明显反转迹象</strong></h2>\n<p>问：从券商指数近两年的 PE水平来看，尽管近期券商有反弹的趋势，它还是在平均线以下的。此时的反弹是否可以理解为一个加仓的时间点呢？</p>\n<p>孙伟：PE毕竟受到了盈利暴涨暴跌的影响，而<strong>券商是一个周期性的行业，它的盈利波动是比较大的，在牛市的时候券商可能“开张吃三年”，这会导致它的PE受到一定扭曲。</strong>我们更习惯用PB。</p>\n<p>现在券商行业的PB是一点五几倍，低于历史上接近90%的时间。此外，我们从指数层面去观察也有一定的失真，券商整个指数或者行业的构成有一定变化，一些互联网券商的加入使得整体估值有系统性的抬升。</p>\n<p>从这个角度来说，<strong>5月券商在估值低点的时候，其PB水平已经和2018年的时候类似，估值下杀得非常多</strong>。但和2018年不同的是，这一轮成本股发生了结构变化，而且没有股权质押的风险；券商的盈利与市场走势是同步的，即市场一旦企稳了，券商业绩一定同步改善。</p>\n<p>从中长期角度来看，这个时点还是可以去定投。</p>\n<p>但是，在市场震荡式的环境下，仍然不建议大家过多地追涨杀跌，我个人觉得<strong>目前还是牛市当中的一个超跌反弹，还没有出现特别明显的反转迹象</strong>。</p>\n<h2><strong>银行目前是略平盘水平，不如买券商突出，但稳健性还不错</strong></h2>\n<p><strong>问：另外一个低估值的板块是银行，银行的后期市场应该怎么去看？</strong></p>\n<p>孙伟：银行目前的估值也是非常低，可能在0.6倍左右，还是非常便宜的。以中证银行指数为例，它的PB在历史上也是在零点六几倍到1.4倍之间波动，除2015年的大牛市到过1.4倍、2018年到过1.2倍外，大部分时间都低于一倍的PB，但目前零点六几倍确实非常低了。</p>\n<p>站在中长期的角度，银行目前是非常有配置价值的。</p>\n<p>银行目前的ROE水平还有百分之十几，<strong>如果我们现在买入银行，在它的估值不变的情况下应该能够拿到百分之十几的回报，赚到它的ROE同时</strong>还有资产打折的钱。</p>\n<p><strong>如果它的估值向上修复到历史相对平均的均值，比如0.7、0.8倍左右，那么可能还有百分之三四十的上涨空间。</strong></p>\n<p>银行中长期的防守性是非常突出的，在防守的基础上还可以有进一步上涨的期望。尤其是当前处于稳增长的市场环境下，而历史上这段时间（PPI在50%以下、流动性不断宽松）银行的表现都是比较突出的。</p>\n<p>此外，银行虽然在年初有所上涨，但之后经历了一波回调，目前只是一个<strong>略微平盘</strong>的水平。综合来看，目前<strong>从中长期的角度买银行还是一个非常稳健的选择，可能进攻性没有证券那么突出，但是防守性和稳健性还不错</strong>。</p>\n<h2><strong>若下半年美国利率企稳，中小盘机会会更大</strong></h2>\n<p>问：中证1000、中证500这类小盘的后期市场走势如何？</p>\n<p>孙伟：5月份，中证1000、中证500一类的中小盘指数涨幅还是比较可观的，在年初到4月份跌幅比较大的情况下进行了超跌的反弹。</p>\n<p>这些中小盘股票经历了2015年到现在一个非常大的估值泡沫的消化。中证500、中证1000的估值都是比较便宜的，比历史上绝大部分时间的市盈率都要低廉。同时中小盘股票的盈利也并不比大白马等大盘股的行业龙头差。</p>\n<p>在这种情况下，<strong>如果下半年美国利率企稳，中小盘可能会有更大的机会。</strong></p>\n<h2><strong>证券是高贝塔行业，走势看A股</strong></h2>\n<p>问：证券与什么因素的相关性比较高？孙伟：相比于中小市值和成长型来说，<strong>证券</strong>还是<strong>和大市值风格的相关度更高一些</strong>。</p>\n<p>同时证券是一个<strong>高贝塔</strong>的行业，和整个大盘的相关度比较高，市场上涨它会跟涨，很难走出独立行情，<strong>它的走势还是要看A股的影响</strong>。</p>\n<p>而A股的走势则要看一些底层的逻辑，<strong>归根结底还是要看整个中国的经济能不能企稳</strong>。</p>\n<h2><strong>财富管理相关券商值得重点关注</strong></h2>\n<p>问：做券商投资看走势还是基本面？几个财富管理的标的可能是券商龙头，他们后面会有阿尔法吗？孙伟：如果做中长期投资，还是关注估值和基本面会更加有效。但如果就是短期交易，那还是看走势为主。</p>\n<p><strong>财富管理依然是券商未来很长时间的一个投资主线</strong>，长期逻辑最通顺的还是财富管理。</p>\n<p>过去两年在财富管理上直接或间接业务占比较高的券商，它的阿尔法都比较突出。</p>\n<p>今年这些券商回调的幅度也相对比较大，在券商的板块里面跌幅也是靠前的，这是因为<strong>今年整个财富管理的增速</strong>（包括管理的规模、新发产品的热度）<strong>都在回落</strong>。</p>\n<p>但是这种情况也是非常正常的，任何一个事物的成长都不可能是线性的，一定是有波折的，何况过去两年的增速非常高。</p>\n<p>中长期投资逻辑没有变化，财富管理相关的券商值得大家去重点关注。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/79590a50-a0e3-4a94-88ad-2f27148fcc08.png\"/></p>\n<p><span>本文作者：王丽 余梦莹，来源：<span>投资作业本</span></span></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>孙伟：券商单日涨幅超3%-4%时卖出，胜率超90%，行情持久性不强，建议左侧布局</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n孙伟：券商单日涨幅超3%-4%时卖出，胜率超90%，行情持久性不强，建议左侧布局\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-15 20:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3662073><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>核心观点：\n1、这两年市场形成了惯性思维，即券商一旦有单日暴涨行情，后面都会产生一个阴跌的回调。从最近两年来看，我们在券商单日涨幅超过3%或者4%的时候去卖出，胜率基本上超过90%，是不错的选择；但是，追涨往往就容易买在高点。\n2、长期看，券商目前确实是一个比较好的配置点位，但是短期大涨的情况下去激进追涨，后续面临的风险比较高。\n3、这一轮市场的大盘已经回到了3月份的平台位置，完全修复了疫情带来的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3662073\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3662073","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243905559","content_text":"核心观点：\n1、这两年市场形成了惯性思维，即券商一旦有单日暴涨行情，后面都会产生一个阴跌的回调。从最近两年来看，我们在券商单日涨幅超过3%或者4%的时候去卖出，胜率基本上超过90%，是不错的选择；但是，追涨往往就容易买在高点。\n2、长期看，券商目前确实是一个比较好的配置点位，但是短期大涨的情况下去激进追涨，后续面临的风险比较高。\n3、这一轮市场的大盘已经回到了3月份的平台位置，完全修复了疫情带来的短期冲击，但短期内迅速修复掉俄乌冲突影响还很困难，这两天涨得好的稳增长板块依然有回调压力，短期要谨慎，不要激进追涨。\n4、到目前为止，今年的市场走势基本处在稳增长和高成长两者的博弈之中，资金也在不断地犹豫，即并不是特别坚决地去做多一个方向。\n5、在当前经济复苏相对不是特别明朗、全球流动性不是特别乐观的情况下，对于一些短期涨幅比较高的行业应该是有一定的获利了结，这可能是比较稳妥的交易。\n6、券商的持久性确实相对来说没那么好，在历史上也往往急涨慢跌。建议大家在左侧布局，在市场都在涨但券商横盘的时候，其实是一个比较舒服的位置。\n7、券商是市场的镜像，或者说是一个非常高贝塔的板块。如果大家没有预期市场会快速转牛，那么面对券商大涨应该保留一份谨慎。(券商的表现）目前还是当中的一个超跌反弹，还没有出现特别明显的反转迹象。8、券商短期投资看走势，长期看基本面，财富管理依然是券商未来很长时间的一个投资主线。\n9、银行目前是略微平盘的水平，中长期买银行是稳健选择，可能进攻性没有证券那么突出，但防守性和稳健性还不错。\n6月15日上午，南方基金经理孙伟在一场直播中就“证券到加仓黄金坑了吗”的主题作出以上判断。\n\n以下是投资作业本（微信ID：touzizuoyeben）整理的精华内容，分享给大家：\n券商迎来反攻行情\n问：昨天券商的行情确实让人比较惊喜，为什么说昨天券商迎来了反攻行情呢？\n孙伟：昨天的市场走势还是非常强劲的，A股走出了一个独立行情。\n从前天夜盘开始连续两天美股尤其是纳指都是大跌的，原因是美国的通胀已经超出了市场预期，使得大家强化了对美联储加息的预期。10年期的美债收益率也迅速飙升到百分之三左右，上涨非常快。\n这就导致A股的成长板块面临非常大的压力。昨天市场虽然整体很强，但实际上最近涨幅比较大的一些板块（比如TMT）还是下跌的。\n券商昨天的走势是这样的：开盘低开；到午盘的时候没能脱离大盘的引力，跟着大盘跌了百分之二点几；下午随着外盘的纳指期货及美债收益率的下行，市场出现了非常明显的反弹，券商更是强于大盘，昨天涨了百分之四点几。\n今天券商也再次上涨，刚才上涨了百分之四点几，走得非常强。这次可能不太一样是，券商的一些股性比较活跃的成分股连续几天涨停，非常提振市场士气。A股独立行情叠加券商罕见的连续上涨令市场再次活跃起来。\n同时市场情绪产生了一定的憧憬，期待券商能够引领市场，使大盘在关键的位置上产生突破和反攻。\n券商单日涨幅超3%/4%时卖出，胜率超90%\n问：现在是不是一个加仓的好时机？券商板块可以去追涨吗？\n孙伟：这两年市场形成了惯性思维，即券商一旦有单日暴涨行情，后面都会产生一个阴跌的回调。从最近两年来看，我们在券商单日涨幅超过3%或者4%的时候去卖出，胜率基本上超过90%，是不错的选择；但是，追涨往往就容易买在高点。\n所以大家可以看到，虽然昨天券商整体涨了4%，甚至一些个股还是涨停的，但是券商的Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF产品却是净赎回的。这就说明市场还是延续了过去两年的交易策略，即大涨卖出、阴跌买入，这在过去两年看是一个非常有效的策略。\n如果从历史经验来看，在券商单日大涨比较多的情况下高胜率的选择就是卖出。但是，今天市场再次大幅上涨，其实超出了过去两年绝大部分历史情况形成的综合预期，也是比较提振市场情绪的。\n但大家需要注意的是，券商其实还是市场的镜像，或者说是一个非常高贝塔的板块。如果大家没有预期市场会快速转牛，那么面对券商大涨应该保留一份谨慎。\n大盘回到3月位置，稳增长板块还有回调压力\n这一轮市场的大盘已经回到了3月份的平台位置，完全修复了疫情带来的短期冲击。\n但是，要想在短期内迅速修复掉俄乌冲突的影响，目前来看还是比较困难的。A股的数据以及宏观、中观的经济数据，并没有出现特别明显的复苏迹象。大家看到5月份的社融数据在总量上基本是超预期的，但中长期来看贷款增速还是下行的。\n从这一点来说，短期之内说“经济预期见底”还为之过早。所以今天和昨天涨得好的基本还是稳增长的板块。然而，受到分母端如利率上行的影响，这些板块还是有回调压力的，尤其是后续可能有一些业绩的压力。\n所以从交易层面来看，大家短期还是要保留一份谨慎，不要激进地去追涨。\n站在中长期的角度，不管从估值角度还是中长期的投资逻辑来看，券商目前确实是一个比较好的配置点位，但是短期大涨的情况下去激进追涨，后续面临的风险还是比较高的。\n市场充斥着反转，板块持续性上涨较少\n问：最近稳增长板块涨得比较多，整个市场的风格会不会从高成长切换到稳增长？\n孙伟：今年市场的反转效应还是比较强的，某一个板块的持续性上涨比较少。\n5月份涨幅最高的是创业板指，电芯、TMT等都有比较可观的涨幅，而稳增长的表现很差。\n6月初市场又有一些变化，昨天和今天银行、证券、地产链、建筑等表现是比较好的。\n所以到目前为止，今年的市场走势基本处在稳增长和高成长两者的博弈之中，资金也在不断地犹豫，即并不是特别坚决地去做多一个方向。\n短期涨幅较高的行业获利了结较稳妥\n这是今年的特点，和外围环境有很大关系，美联储在收水，通胀可能一时半会下不来，这是一个非常大的分母端的问题，会导致长久期的高成长板块面临比较大的冲击和压力。这一点对应到外围就是纳斯达克及恒生科技。当然恒生科技5月份并没有走得特别强，不像A股的创业板尤其是新能源那样无回调地上涨，而是走出了一个震荡的态势。所以这种情况下大家要更加谨慎。\n在当前经济复苏相对不是特别明朗、全球流动性不是特别乐观的情况下，对于一些短期涨幅比较高的行业应该是有一定的获利了结，这可能是比较稳妥的交易。\n如果大家憧憬的是2014年那样的牛市，我觉得可能是比较难的。\n在这种市场环境下大家还是要敢于在下跌的时候去买，不要觉得跌了之后市场会极度悲观，然后勤于砍仓，我觉得这是不可取的。此外，涨了也不要过于激进和乐观，觉得大牛市又来了，要有一份警惕，去平衡自己的仓位。\n如果你觉得经济目前还在交易稳增长的预期复苏，短期来说还比较早，那么一些稳增长的板块就值得大家去关注，比如大金融、地产链等。\n但是如果这些稳增长板块由于政策博弈、未来复苏博弈而短期炒作得过猛了，涨幅也比较高了，那就可以去减仓。比如之前年初地产也有一波快速的上涨，但后边下来得也比较厉害。\n所以一定要在最终的业绩兑现和市场情绪之前寻找平衡，不要过快被市场情绪牵着走，连涨几天之后可能还是会降温。\n券商行情持久性不强，建议左侧布局\n问：这一轮整个券商板块的行情大概会持续多久？\n孙伟：这其实是策略上的选择问题。最近两年胜率比较高的策略，就是在券商暴涨的时候去减仓，在阴跌的时候慢慢买入和持续性地布局。\n定投其实是一个非常好的策略，而止盈就是在市场情绪比较亢奋的时候进行，胜率可能有90%。\n比如昨天大涨中很多资金就选择减仓了，但是今天还在持续性大涨，那可能就卖飞了。所以不需要极端，可以适当减一点仓位，保留了继续参与后续大涨行情的机会，同时根据历史经验此时适当止盈是一个胜率更高的选择。\n至于持久性，券商的持久性确实相对来说没那么好，在历史上也往往急涨慢跌。即使短期有一个比较大的涨幅，如果你没有及时上车，再想追的时候就已经到了行情的中后端了，这个时候就很容易被套。\n所以我们还是建议大家在左侧布局，在市场都在涨但券商横盘的时候，其实是一个比较舒服的位置。\n比如5月份，整个5月券商就涨了不到1%，而一些高成长的板块上涨是非常可观的。这个时候券商也处于低位，估值比较便宜，此时慢慢买就比较舒服，等到真正涨起来再去追可能就比较难受了。\n地产和基建走势，关注业绩是否有支撑\n问：请您讲解一下基建和地产这一块。\n孙伟：传统来看地产在每一轮稳增长都不会缺席，尤其在出口和消费面临比较大压力的情况下，地产政策可能更会有一定的放松预期，这一点在因城施策等方面都有一些迹象。\n地产1至5月份的销售数据还是不好，今年业绩仍不断下探。目前，在这些政策的微调后还是没有看到整个地产业绩的企稳。未来肯定会反弹和企稳的，但什么时候能够企稳，值得关注。\n基建面临的问题和地产不太一样。地方隐性债务的约束其实是没有放松的，基建的发力可能是政府最可控的一个方向，但是也很难像过去的“四万亿刺激”那样，弹性可能不会那么大。\n大家还是要去关注真正后边是不是真的有一些业绩上面的印证，或者说宏观、中观数据上面的印证可能是比较重要的。\n券商目前是超跌反弹，还未出现明显反转迹象\n问：从券商指数近两年的 PE水平来看，尽管近期券商有反弹的趋势，它还是在平均线以下的。此时的反弹是否可以理解为一个加仓的时间点呢？\n孙伟：PE毕竟受到了盈利暴涨暴跌的影响，而券商是一个周期性的行业，它的盈利波动是比较大的，在牛市的时候券商可能“开张吃三年”，这会导致它的PE受到一定扭曲。我们更习惯用PB。\n现在券商行业的PB是一点五几倍，低于历史上接近90%的时间。此外，我们从指数层面去观察也有一定的失真，券商整个指数或者行业的构成有一定变化，一些互联网券商的加入使得整体估值有系统性的抬升。\n从这个角度来说，5月券商在估值低点的时候，其PB水平已经和2018年的时候类似，估值下杀得非常多。但和2018年不同的是，这一轮成本股发生了结构变化，而且没有股权质押的风险；券商的盈利与市场走势是同步的，即市场一旦企稳了，券商业绩一定同步改善。\n从中长期角度来看，这个时点还是可以去定投。\n但是，在市场震荡式的环境下，仍然不建议大家过多地追涨杀跌，我个人觉得目前还是牛市当中的一个超跌反弹，还没有出现特别明显的反转迹象。\n银行目前是略平盘水平，不如买券商突出，但稳健性还不错\n问：另外一个低估值的板块是银行，银行的后期市场应该怎么去看？\n孙伟：银行目前的估值也是非常低，可能在0.6倍左右，还是非常便宜的。以中证银行指数为例，它的PB在历史上也是在零点六几倍到1.4倍之间波动，除2015年的大牛市到过1.4倍、2018年到过1.2倍外，大部分时间都低于一倍的PB，但目前零点六几倍确实非常低了。\n站在中长期的角度，银行目前是非常有配置价值的。\n银行目前的ROE水平还有百分之十几，如果我们现在买入银行，在它的估值不变的情况下应该能够拿到百分之十几的回报，赚到它的ROE同时还有资产打折的钱。\n如果它的估值向上修复到历史相对平均的均值，比如0.7、0.8倍左右，那么可能还有百分之三四十的上涨空间。\n银行中长期的防守性是非常突出的，在防守的基础上还可以有进一步上涨的期望。尤其是当前处于稳增长的市场环境下，而历史上这段时间（PPI在50%以下、流动性不断宽松）银行的表现都是比较突出的。\n此外，银行虽然在年初有所上涨，但之后经历了一波回调，目前只是一个略微平盘的水平。综合来看，目前从中长期的角度买银行还是一个非常稳健的选择，可能进攻性没有证券那么突出，但是防守性和稳健性还不错。\n若下半年美国利率企稳，中小盘机会会更大\n问：中证1000、中证500这类小盘的后期市场走势如何？\n孙伟：5月份，中证1000、中证500一类的中小盘指数涨幅还是比较可观的，在年初到4月份跌幅比较大的情况下进行了超跌的反弹。\n这些中小盘股票经历了2015年到现在一个非常大的估值泡沫的消化。中证500、中证1000的估值都是比较便宜的，比历史上绝大部分时间的市盈率都要低廉。同时中小盘股票的盈利也并不比大白马等大盘股的行业龙头差。\n在这种情况下，如果下半年美国利率企稳，中小盘可能会有更大的机会。\n证券是高贝塔行业，走势看A股\n问：证券与什么因素的相关性比较高？孙伟：相比于中小市值和成长型来说，证券还是和大市值风格的相关度更高一些。\n同时证券是一个高贝塔的行业，和整个大盘的相关度比较高，市场上涨它会跟涨，很难走出独立行情，它的走势还是要看A股的影响。\n而A股的走势则要看一些底层的逻辑，归根结底还是要看整个中国的经济能不能企稳。\n财富管理相关券商值得重点关注\n问：做券商投资看走势还是基本面？几个财富管理的标的可能是券商龙头，他们后面会有阿尔法吗？孙伟：如果做中长期投资，还是关注估值和基本面会更加有效。但如果就是短期交易，那还是看走势为主。\n财富管理依然是券商未来很长时间的一个投资主线，长期逻辑最通顺的还是财富管理。\n过去两年在财富管理上直接或间接业务占比较高的券商，它的阿尔法都比较突出。\n今年这些券商回调的幅度也相对比较大，在券商的板块里面跌幅也是靠前的，这是因为今年整个财富管理的增速（包括管理的规模、新发产品的热度）都在回落。\n但是这种情况也是非常正常的，任何一个事物的成长都不可能是线性的，一定是有波折的，何况过去两年的增速非常高。\n中长期投资逻辑没有变化，财富管理相关的券商值得大家去重点关注。\n\n本文作者：王丽 余梦莹，来源：投资作业本","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":680590160,"gmtCreate":1655128139852,"gmtModify":1704861220945,"author":{"id":"3492686347425698","authorId":"3492686347425698","name":"坐实预言家哈哈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c03d9bdd280f8e27d90895c789708db0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连 2206(ESmain)$</a>今晚反红，长下引线","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连 2206(ESmain)$</a>今晚反红，长下引线","text":"$SP500指数主连 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