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world_ranger
06-27
真的哇,[捂脸]
美光高管怒怼苹果定价模式:芯片成本涨45美元,终端加价250美元
world_ranger
2022-08-17
为什么不给自己省份留点儿!!!
四川电力保供形势严峻:对市场影响几何?能源大省为何缺电?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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10:43","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"四川电力保供形势严峻:对市场影响几何?能源大省为何缺电?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122464767","media":"澎湃新闻","summary":"7月以来的持续高温干旱,导致四川今夏电力保供形势较往年更趋严峻。","content":"<div>\n<p>7月以来的持续高温干旱,导致四川今夏电力保供形势较往年更趋严峻。据四川日报,8月15日,四川再次召开电力保供调度会,预计全省最大用电负荷将比去年同期增加25%,电力保供形势十分严峻。四川的电力供需形势已由7月份的高峰时期电力“紧缺”,转变为全天电力电量“双缺”局面。当前形势促使该省决定执行《关于扩大工业企业让电于民实施范围的紧急通知》,对四川电网有序用电方案中所有工业电力用户(含白名单重点保障企业...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_19489906\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"pengpai_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>四川电力保供形势严峻:对市场影响几何?能源大省为何缺电?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n四川电力保供形势严峻:对市场影响几何?能源大省为何缺电?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-17 10:43 北京时间 <a href=https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_19489906><strong>澎湃新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月以来的持续高温干旱,导致四川今夏电力保供形势较往年更趋严峻。据四川日报,8月15日,四川再次召开电力保供调度会,预计全省最大用电负荷将比去年同期增加25%,电力保供形势十分严峻。四川的电力供需形势已由7月份的高峰时期电力“紧缺”,转变为全天电力电量“双缺”局面。当前形势促使该省决定执行《关于扩大工业企业让电于民实施范围的紧急通知》,对四川电网有序用电方案中所有工业电力用户(含白名单重点保障企业...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_19489906\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f86bf8f843b7a9ff147e91be24c19f9d","relate_stocks":{"159611":"电力ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_19489906","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122464767","content_text":"7月以来的持续高温干旱,导致四川今夏电力保供形势较往年更趋严峻。据四川日报,8月15日,四川再次召开电力保供调度会,预计全省最大用电负荷将比去年同期增加25%,电力保供形势十分严峻。四川的电力供需形势已由7月份的高峰时期电力“紧缺”,转变为全天电力电量“双缺”局面。当前形势促使该省决定执行《关于扩大工业企业让电于民实施范围的紧急通知》,对四川电网有序用电方案中所有工业电力用户(含白名单重点保障企业)实施生产全停(保安负荷除外),时间从8月15日00:00至20日24:00,“让电于民”。四川的五大支柱产业包括电子信息、装备制造、食品饮料、先进材料和能源化工,限电不可避免地令相关企业的生产计划面临调整。截至8月16日,据澎湃新闻不完全统计,已有20余家上市公司就四川限电影响作出回应。其中,四川作为光伏制造产业重镇,是光伏上游多晶硅料主产区之一。去年以来,多晶硅价格从每吨约8万元暴涨至近期的30万元,产业链涨价令下游持续承压。停限电消息令业内再度浮现恐慌情绪:硅料本就紧缺,停减产是否会再度推涨价格?据澎湃新闻了解,整体影响有限。对于四川缺电,很多人会打出问号。因为在大家的印象里,四川水资源丰富,拥有多座巨型水电站。水电装机容量和发电量均居全国第一的水电大省,为何会在夏季出现电力缺口?上市公司密集回应限电影响据澎湃新闻梳理,近两日,多家上市公司披露了限电影响。总体而言,多数化工及有色金属企业披露了短期减产情况,京东方A(000725.SZ)等公司则表示当前的限电政策不会对公司业绩产生重大不利影响。泸天化(000912.SZ)8月15日公告,因落实限电政策,公司泸州纳溪区生产装置于15日全部停车完毕,停车期间自15日00:00至20日24:00。本次限电停产预计导致尿素产量减少约3.5万吨、甲醇产量减少约1万吨,预计影响归属于上市公司净利润减少约0.3亿元。公司将通过调整检修计划的方式,积极做好复产准备。四川美丰(000731.SZ)称,公司下辖的化肥分公司、复合肥有限责任公司(生产基地位于德阳经济技术开发区)于15日12:50起临时停产,预计停产时间至20日24:00(以相关部门通知为准)。本次临时停产预计将影响尿素产量约1.5万吨、复合肥产量约0.6万吨。目前公司产品库存较为充足。农药农化企业国光股份(002749.SZ)15日公告,公司位于成都市简阳市的全资子公司四川润尔科技有限公司接相关部门通知,于15日00:00至20日24:00临时停产。停产期间,公司将积极统筹调整相关运营安排,目前备货充足。天原股份(002386.SZ)16日公告,四川境内子公司部分产能按照要求临时停产一周。受本次限电减产影响,预计将减少归属于上市公司净利润0.3亿元左右。宏达股份(600331.SH)称,本部有色生产基地和磷化工生产基地、控股子公司四川绵竹川润化工有限公司于15日起临时停产,预计将减少锌合金产量约0.1万吨、磷化工产品产量约0.4万吨、合成氨产量0.2万吨。目前公司相关产品库存较为充足。中孚实业(600595)14日称,本次限电政策预计导致子公司广元市林丰铝电有限公司的电解铝产量减少约0.73万吨,预计影响归属于上市公司净利润减少约0.55亿元。另中孚实业持有广元中孚高精铝材有限公司15.93%的股权,中孚铝业持有后者32.56%的股权,本次限电政策预计影响电解铝产量减少约0.56万吨,预计影响归属于上市公司净利润减少约0.23亿元。此外,浩物股份(000757.SZ)、天奥电子(002935.SZ)、四川双马(000935.SZ)、四川金顶(600678.SH)、雷电微力(301050.SZ)等也回应了限电停产对生产和经营业绩的影响。四川停限电会推涨多晶硅价格吗?不足以影响供求关系晶硅制造是耗电大户,近年来,多晶硅新产能向四川、内蒙、云南等低电价地区集中。公开资料显示,2021年,全国多晶硅产量约50万吨,占全球产量的七成以上,四川多晶硅产量则约占全国产量的13%。预计未来两年,全国多晶硅产能约有一半出自四川。全球晶硅光伏领域头部企业中有5家落户四川。截至2021年,四川省内已建成和在建高纯晶硅、拉棒切方、电池片等项目投资超1000亿元。由于供应链不同环节产能错配导致供不应求,硅料价格近期仍呈现上行,“绿色硅谷”四川发生停限电是否会刺激硅料价格大幅飙升?业内已浮现恐慌和炒作情绪。据澎湃新闻了解,目前影响有限。除了总部位于四川的光伏硅料、电池片双龙头通威股份(600438.SH)以外,包括晶科能源(688223.SH)、协鑫科技(03800.HK)、京运通(601908.SH)等均在四川设有光伏生产基地。8月15日,通威股份投资者关系部门工作人员对澎湃新闻称,详细的停限电方案及对公司的具体影响还在沟通和评估中。公司位于四川的硅料和电池片生产会受到一定影响,“产线有些具体安排,还在沟通中。”该人士称,公司部分产线已停产,也有些仍在运转。若后续影响较大,公司将发布相应公告。8月16日,协鑫科技相关负责人对媒体表示,旗下乐山颗粒硅项目近日接到生产限电通知,公司将积极配合地方政府相关政策指令,于8月15日-20日开启保安负荷运行。晶科能源和京运通均在四川乐山拥有硅片产能。16日,晶科能源投资者关系部门工作人员对澎湃新闻回应称,限电对于公司的影响短期可控。“限电并不是全面停电,公司内部已在做相关调整。” 京运通投资者关系部门对澎湃新闻表示,公司正在落实限电政策,目前有部分停产。对此,中国有色金属硅业分会专家委副主任吕锦标对澎湃新闻分析称,本轮四川停限电政策对硅料整体产量影响不大,“只是减负荷,没有停车,系统物料仍然循环。当地主要的三家硅料生产商都很成熟,恢复起来很快。”他强调说,四川限电减少的硅料供应量不大,不足以影响供求关系,目前新增产能释放,零售市场供需关系得以改善。但“需要呼吁长单采购的龙头企业不要再到零售市场抢货,要不然还是会引发价格上扬。”水电大省为何缺电?水电大省为何缺电?今年极为异常的高温干旱是最主要的直接原因,但原因不止这一个。据川观新闻报道,7月以来,四川迎来极端高温干旱天气,天然来水电量由同期约9亿千瓦时下降至目前约4.5亿千瓦时,且以日均2%的速度持续下降。四川水电装机占比超过80%,供电支撑能力大幅下跌。供应大幅下降的同时,高温导致的用电需求却出现激增。国网四川省电力公司相关负责人介绍称,7月以来,四川遭遇大范围长时间极端高温干旱天气,电力负荷屡创新高,全省电力供应形势极为紧张。全省上下密切协作,通力配合,打赢了迎峰度夏以来首轮高温电力保供“攻坚战”。但8月7日开始,四川迎来严峻的高温干旱灾害性天气,预计还将持续一周左右的时间,面临历史同期最高的极端高温、历史同期最少的降水量、历史同期最高的电力负荷三“最”叠加的局面。从全国来看,目前所有电力入川通道已全部满载运行,组织省外电力支援难度增大;从省内来看,本轮高温干旱极端灾害天气已造成全省15个市(州)严重受灾,7月水电来水偏枯4成、8月以来偏枯达5成,水电日发电量大幅下降,供电支撑能力大幅下跌;从供需来看,持续高温导致降温负荷激增,叠加水电来水严重偏枯,电力供需形势极度紧张。关于四川弃水、缺电并存的话题,其实能源行业内已讨论多年。我国水电开发项目多位于川滇两省。据国家能源局统计,2020年全国水电“弃水”主要发生在四川,四川又主要集中在大渡河干流,约占全省“弃水”电量的53%。与此同时,四川也面临着缺电隐忧。“一边在‘弃水’,一边又缺电,这种矛盾反映出四川电力行业的结构性问题。”四川省能源局有关负责人2021年接受《瞭望》采访时解释称,四川水电“弃水”主要发生在汛期,缺电主要是因水电先天不足、“丰余枯缺”导致的冬季季节性缺电,以及成渝地区双城经济圈加快建设带来的成都及其周边的区域性缺电。随着近年来四川用电负荷高速增长,“丰余枯缺”的电力供需情况也正在发生变化。由四川电力交易中心编制的《2021年四川电力市场运营报告》提出,随着四川经济社会进入新一轮高速发展期,未来几年电力需求将呈稳步上升趋势,电力供需形势将由“丰余枯缺”加快向“丰枯均缺”转变。国网四川省电力公司董事长谭洪恩2020年接受四川日报采访时呼吁统筹电源和电网建设步调。他说,由于四川资源禀赋和环境容量因素影响,成都都市圈难以再发展燃煤等化石能源发电厂,其主要由四川西部水电供应。受现有四川电网500千伏送出通道能力限制,如果不新增特高压交流通道,预计从“十四五”中期开始,成都都市圈用电缺口将逐年扩大。如果电网建设“跟不上”,四川很可能出现“一边甘孜、阿坝水电等清洁能源‘窝电’送不出,一边成都等负荷中心缺电用不上”的情况。四川是“西电东送”的重要送出端,据国网四川电力公司数据,截至2022年6月,四川电网已累计向华东、西北、华北、华中、重庆和西藏等输送电量1.35万亿千万时。那么可不可以将水电全部用于本地消纳,索性不外送了?答案是不可以。国网四川电力公司的一篇文章称,四川作为全国水电基地,按照国家“西电东送”战略,四川境内向家坝、溪洛渡、锦屏、白鹤滩等梯级大型电站,均由国家统筹安排开发和消纳。其电量在全国范围内统筹分配,省内、省外有固定的分配比例,并不是四川优先消纳,多余电量才外送。公开资料显示,早在2013年,国家能源局发布的《溪洛渡向家坝水电站电能消纳方案》明确规定:为充分利用溪洛渡、向家坝电站的电能,提高水电资源优化配置效率,本着“统筹协调、优化配置、送端优先、就近消纳、兼顾公平”五大电能消纳原则,两个电站丰水期(6月至10月)电力电量全部外送消纳;枯水期(11月至次年5月)电量原则上优先满足受端,富余部分外送消纳。《四川省“十四五”电力发展规划》预测,“十四五”时期,省内用电负荷将保持较高增速。该文件在分析该省电力供应保障能力短板时提出,“水电资源开发程度高,自用和外送矛盾加剧,发电装机容量有‘硬缺口’风险,电力平稳可靠供应难度加大。输电通道不足,水电基地和风光基地‘窝电’和负荷中心缺电风险并存。”为此提出,“统筹好水电自用与外送,积极争取国家支持适当增加特高压直流外送大型水电电源枯期留存四川电量;充分发挥川西水风光互补特性,通过实现四川跨区外送通道‘水风光一体化’,增加新能源外送置换出部分水电留川使用”等举措。高温仍在持续。四川省气象台8月14日15时继续发布高温橙色预警:预计15-19日,盆地大部地方最高气温可达35℃-39℃,其中达州、广安、巴中、南充、遂宁、资阳、内江、自贡、泸州、宜宾10市的部分地方和绵阳、德阳、成都、眉山、乐山5市的东部可达40℃或以上。相比此前发布的高温橙色预警,40℃或以上的范围从10市扩大到15市。四川省防汛抗旱指挥部办公室15日发布的水情快报预测,当周(8月15-21日)全省主要江河来水量将以偏少为主,持续持久高温干旱导致用水用电需求量激增,水库水电站蓄水严重不足,蓄水保供压力大。为打好眼前这场保电“攻坚战”,四川目前多措并举:确保发电资源最大化利用——滚动优化各类电源发电计划,政企协同促进火电存煤。截至8月13日,全网存煤215万吨,同比增加145万吨、增长超两倍,保证火电稳发满发。全力争取省外电力支援——积极争取国家发展和改革委、国家电网公司给予四川紧急电力支援,按最大输电通道能力实施跨省跨区支援。四川跨省跨区所有通道已最大化利用,同时增大水电留川规模,大幅削减四川低谷年度外送计划电力。建立电力保供日会商机制——该省经济和信息化厅、国网四川省电力公司进行日会商,研判分析电力供需形势,研究制度应对措施,最大限度用好各方资源,努力寻求保电网安全、保民生用电、保工业经济发展的最优解。8月16日,国家电网有限公司董事长、党组书记辛保安强调,当前高温仍在持续,迎峰度夏工作正处于最吃劲、最关键的阶段。他在谈及确保电网安全运行时称,要科学安排运行方式,加强电网运行监控,坚持全公司“一盘棋”,发挥大电网资源配置作用,组织跨区跨省余缺互济,最大限度支援川渝地区电力供应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159611":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":579586910527760,"gmtCreate":1782530797192,"gmtModify":1782530936237,"author":{"id":"3491372198554689","authorId":"3491372198554689","name":"world_ranger","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491372198554689","authorIdStr":"3491372198554689"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"真的哇,[捂脸] ","listText":"真的哇,[捂脸] ","text":"真的哇,[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/579586910527760","repostId":"2646539698","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2646539698","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1782522250,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2646539698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-27 09:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美光高管怒怼苹果定价模式:芯片成本涨45美元,终端加价250美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2646539698","media":"格隆汇","summary":"社交媒体上海外财经投资类网红账号爆出美光科技高管公开吐槽苹果定价模式:十多年来,苹果长期以5美元采购存储芯片,简单封装后,以99美元的存储升级价卖给消费者,还嘲笑美光想把单价涨到7美元。如今芯片采购价","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">社交媒体上海外财经投资类网红账号爆出美光科技高管公开吐槽苹果定价模式:十多年来,苹果长期以5美元采购存储芯片,简单封装后,以99美元的存储升级价卖给消费者,还嘲笑美光想把单价涨到7美元。如今芯片采购价涨到50美元,苹果直接向消费者加价250美元,把成本压力成倍转嫁给用户。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d4b1ffd282b1894e409447c24a9e1e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1849\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","source":"live_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美光高管怒怼苹果定价模式:芯片成本涨45美元,终端加价250美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美光高管怒怼苹果定价模式:芯片成本涨45美元,终端加价250美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-27 09:04 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>社交媒体上海外财经投资类网红账号爆出美光科技高管公开吐槽苹果定价模式:十多年来,苹果长期以5美元采购存储芯片,简单封装后,以99美元的存储升级价卖给消费者,还嘲笑美光想把单价涨到7美元。如今芯片采购价涨到50美元,苹果直接向消费者加价250美元,把成本压力成倍转嫁给用户。</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d4b1ffd282b1894e409447c24a9e1e","relate_stocks":{"LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","LU1642822529.SGD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) 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10:43","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"四川电力保供形势严峻:对市场影响几何?能源大省为何缺电?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122464767","media":"澎湃新闻","summary":"7月以来的持续高温干旱,导致四川今夏电力保供形势较往年更趋严峻。","content":"<div>\n<p>7月以来的持续高温干旱,导致四川今夏电力保供形势较往年更趋严峻。据四川日报,8月15日,四川再次召开电力保供调度会,预计全省最大用电负荷将比去年同期增加25%,电力保供形势十分严峻。四川的电力供需形势已由7月份的高峰时期电力“紧缺”,转变为全天电力电量“双缺”局面。当前形势促使该省决定执行《关于扩大工业企业让电于民实施范围的紧急通知》,对四川电网有序用电方案中所有工业电力用户(含白名单重点保障企业...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_19489906\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"pengpai_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>四川电力保供形势严峻:对市场影响几何?能源大省为何缺电?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n四川电力保供形势严峻:对市场影响几何?能源大省为何缺电?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-17 10:43 北京时间 <a href=https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_19489906><strong>澎湃新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月以来的持续高温干旱,导致四川今夏电力保供形势较往年更趋严峻。据四川日报,8月15日,四川再次召开电力保供调度会,预计全省最大用电负荷将比去年同期增加25%,电力保供形势十分严峻。四川的电力供需形势已由7月份的高峰时期电力“紧缺”,转变为全天电力电量“双缺”局面。当前形势促使该省决定执行《关于扩大工业企业让电于民实施范围的紧急通知》,对四川电网有序用电方案中所有工业电力用户(含白名单重点保障企业...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_19489906\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f86bf8f843b7a9ff147e91be24c19f9d","relate_stocks":{"159611":"电力ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_19489906","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122464767","content_text":"7月以来的持续高温干旱,导致四川今夏电力保供形势较往年更趋严峻。据四川日报,8月15日,四川再次召开电力保供调度会,预计全省最大用电负荷将比去年同期增加25%,电力保供形势十分严峻。四川的电力供需形势已由7月份的高峰时期电力“紧缺”,转变为全天电力电量“双缺”局面。当前形势促使该省决定执行《关于扩大工业企业让电于民实施范围的紧急通知》,对四川电网有序用电方案中所有工业电力用户(含白名单重点保障企业)实施生产全停(保安负荷除外),时间从8月15日00:00至20日24:00,“让电于民”。四川的五大支柱产业包括电子信息、装备制造、食品饮料、先进材料和能源化工,限电不可避免地令相关企业的生产计划面临调整。截至8月16日,据澎湃新闻不完全统计,已有20余家上市公司就四川限电影响作出回应。其中,四川作为光伏制造产业重镇,是光伏上游多晶硅料主产区之一。去年以来,多晶硅价格从每吨约8万元暴涨至近期的30万元,产业链涨价令下游持续承压。停限电消息令业内再度浮现恐慌情绪:硅料本就紧缺,停减产是否会再度推涨价格?据澎湃新闻了解,整体影响有限。对于四川缺电,很多人会打出问号。因为在大家的印象里,四川水资源丰富,拥有多座巨型水电站。水电装机容量和发电量均居全国第一的水电大省,为何会在夏季出现电力缺口?上市公司密集回应限电影响据澎湃新闻梳理,近两日,多家上市公司披露了限电影响。总体而言,多数化工及有色金属企业披露了短期减产情况,京东方A(000725.SZ)等公司则表示当前的限电政策不会对公司业绩产生重大不利影响。泸天化(000912.SZ)8月15日公告,因落实限电政策,公司泸州纳溪区生产装置于15日全部停车完毕,停车期间自15日00:00至20日24:00。本次限电停产预计导致尿素产量减少约3.5万吨、甲醇产量减少约1万吨,预计影响归属于上市公司净利润减少约0.3亿元。公司将通过调整检修计划的方式,积极做好复产准备。四川美丰(000731.SZ)称,公司下辖的化肥分公司、复合肥有限责任公司(生产基地位于德阳经济技术开发区)于15日12:50起临时停产,预计停产时间至20日24:00(以相关部门通知为准)。本次临时停产预计将影响尿素产量约1.5万吨、复合肥产量约0.6万吨。目前公司产品库存较为充足。农药农化企业国光股份(002749.SZ)15日公告,公司位于成都市简阳市的全资子公司四川润尔科技有限公司接相关部门通知,于15日00:00至20日24:00临时停产。停产期间,公司将积极统筹调整相关运营安排,目前备货充足。天原股份(002386.SZ)16日公告,四川境内子公司部分产能按照要求临时停产一周。受本次限电减产影响,预计将减少归属于上市公司净利润0.3亿元左右。宏达股份(600331.SH)称,本部有色生产基地和磷化工生产基地、控股子公司四川绵竹川润化工有限公司于15日起临时停产,预计将减少锌合金产量约0.1万吨、磷化工产品产量约0.4万吨、合成氨产量0.2万吨。目前公司相关产品库存较为充足。中孚实业(600595)14日称,本次限电政策预计导致子公司广元市林丰铝电有限公司的电解铝产量减少约0.73万吨,预计影响归属于上市公司净利润减少约0.55亿元。另中孚实业持有广元中孚高精铝材有限公司15.93%的股权,中孚铝业持有后者32.56%的股权,本次限电政策预计影响电解铝产量减少约0.56万吨,预计影响归属于上市公司净利润减少约0.23亿元。此外,浩物股份(000757.SZ)、天奥电子(002935.SZ)、四川双马(000935.SZ)、四川金顶(600678.SH)、雷电微力(301050.SZ)等也回应了限电停产对生产和经营业绩的影响。四川停限电会推涨多晶硅价格吗?不足以影响供求关系晶硅制造是耗电大户,近年来,多晶硅新产能向四川、内蒙、云南等低电价地区集中。公开资料显示,2021年,全国多晶硅产量约50万吨,占全球产量的七成以上,四川多晶硅产量则约占全国产量的13%。预计未来两年,全国多晶硅产能约有一半出自四川。全球晶硅光伏领域头部企业中有5家落户四川。截至2021年,四川省内已建成和在建高纯晶硅、拉棒切方、电池片等项目投资超1000亿元。由于供应链不同环节产能错配导致供不应求,硅料价格近期仍呈现上行,“绿色硅谷”四川发生停限电是否会刺激硅料价格大幅飙升?业内已浮现恐慌和炒作情绪。据澎湃新闻了解,目前影响有限。除了总部位于四川的光伏硅料、电池片双龙头通威股份(600438.SH)以外,包括晶科能源(688223.SH)、协鑫科技(03800.HK)、京运通(601908.SH)等均在四川设有光伏生产基地。8月15日,通威股份投资者关系部门工作人员对澎湃新闻称,详细的停限电方案及对公司的具体影响还在沟通和评估中。公司位于四川的硅料和电池片生产会受到一定影响,“产线有些具体安排,还在沟通中。”该人士称,公司部分产线已停产,也有些仍在运转。若后续影响较大,公司将发布相应公告。8月16日,协鑫科技相关负责人对媒体表示,旗下乐山颗粒硅项目近日接到生产限电通知,公司将积极配合地方政府相关政策指令,于8月15日-20日开启保安负荷运行。晶科能源和京运通均在四川乐山拥有硅片产能。16日,晶科能源投资者关系部门工作人员对澎湃新闻回应称,限电对于公司的影响短期可控。“限电并不是全面停电,公司内部已在做相关调整。” 京运通投资者关系部门对澎湃新闻表示,公司正在落实限电政策,目前有部分停产。对此,中国有色金属硅业分会专家委副主任吕锦标对澎湃新闻分析称,本轮四川停限电政策对硅料整体产量影响不大,“只是减负荷,没有停车,系统物料仍然循环。当地主要的三家硅料生产商都很成熟,恢复起来很快。”他强调说,四川限电减少的硅料供应量不大,不足以影响供求关系,目前新增产能释放,零售市场供需关系得以改善。但“需要呼吁长单采购的龙头企业不要再到零售市场抢货,要不然还是会引发价格上扬。”水电大省为何缺电?水电大省为何缺电?今年极为异常的高温干旱是最主要的直接原因,但原因不止这一个。据川观新闻报道,7月以来,四川迎来极端高温干旱天气,天然来水电量由同期约9亿千瓦时下降至目前约4.5亿千瓦时,且以日均2%的速度持续下降。四川水电装机占比超过80%,供电支撑能力大幅下跌。供应大幅下降的同时,高温导致的用电需求却出现激增。国网四川省电力公司相关负责人介绍称,7月以来,四川遭遇大范围长时间极端高温干旱天气,电力负荷屡创新高,全省电力供应形势极为紧张。全省上下密切协作,通力配合,打赢了迎峰度夏以来首轮高温电力保供“攻坚战”。但8月7日开始,四川迎来严峻的高温干旱灾害性天气,预计还将持续一周左右的时间,面临历史同期最高的极端高温、历史同期最少的降水量、历史同期最高的电力负荷三“最”叠加的局面。从全国来看,目前所有电力入川通道已全部满载运行,组织省外电力支援难度增大;从省内来看,本轮高温干旱极端灾害天气已造成全省15个市(州)严重受灾,7月水电来水偏枯4成、8月以来偏枯达5成,水电日发电量大幅下降,供电支撑能力大幅下跌;从供需来看,持续高温导致降温负荷激增,叠加水电来水严重偏枯,电力供需形势极度紧张。关于四川弃水、缺电并存的话题,其实能源行业内已讨论多年。我国水电开发项目多位于川滇两省。据国家能源局统计,2020年全国水电“弃水”主要发生在四川,四川又主要集中在大渡河干流,约占全省“弃水”电量的53%。与此同时,四川也面临着缺电隐忧。“一边在‘弃水’,一边又缺电,这种矛盾反映出四川电力行业的结构性问题。”四川省能源局有关负责人2021年接受《瞭望》采访时解释称,四川水电“弃水”主要发生在汛期,缺电主要是因水电先天不足、“丰余枯缺”导致的冬季季节性缺电,以及成渝地区双城经济圈加快建设带来的成都及其周边的区域性缺电。随着近年来四川用电负荷高速增长,“丰余枯缺”的电力供需情况也正在发生变化。由四川电力交易中心编制的《2021年四川电力市场运营报告》提出,随着四川经济社会进入新一轮高速发展期,未来几年电力需求将呈稳步上升趋势,电力供需形势将由“丰余枯缺”加快向“丰枯均缺”转变。国网四川省电力公司董事长谭洪恩2020年接受四川日报采访时呼吁统筹电源和电网建设步调。他说,由于四川资源禀赋和环境容量因素影响,成都都市圈难以再发展燃煤等化石能源发电厂,其主要由四川西部水电供应。受现有四川电网500千伏送出通道能力限制,如果不新增特高压交流通道,预计从“十四五”中期开始,成都都市圈用电缺口将逐年扩大。如果电网建设“跟不上”,四川很可能出现“一边甘孜、阿坝水电等清洁能源‘窝电’送不出,一边成都等负荷中心缺电用不上”的情况。四川是“西电东送”的重要送出端,据国网四川电力公司数据,截至2022年6月,四川电网已累计向华东、西北、华北、华中、重庆和西藏等输送电量1.35万亿千万时。那么可不可以将水电全部用于本地消纳,索性不外送了?答案是不可以。国网四川电力公司的一篇文章称,四川作为全国水电基地,按照国家“西电东送”战略,四川境内向家坝、溪洛渡、锦屏、白鹤滩等梯级大型电站,均由国家统筹安排开发和消纳。其电量在全国范围内统筹分配,省内、省外有固定的分配比例,并不是四川优先消纳,多余电量才外送。公开资料显示,早在2013年,国家能源局发布的《溪洛渡向家坝水电站电能消纳方案》明确规定:为充分利用溪洛渡、向家坝电站的电能,提高水电资源优化配置效率,本着“统筹协调、优化配置、送端优先、就近消纳、兼顾公平”五大电能消纳原则,两个电站丰水期(6月至10月)电力电量全部外送消纳;枯水期(11月至次年5月)电量原则上优先满足受端,富余部分外送消纳。《四川省“十四五”电力发展规划》预测,“十四五”时期,省内用电负荷将保持较高增速。该文件在分析该省电力供应保障能力短板时提出,“水电资源开发程度高,自用和外送矛盾加剧,发电装机容量有‘硬缺口’风险,电力平稳可靠供应难度加大。输电通道不足,水电基地和风光基地‘窝电’和负荷中心缺电风险并存。”为此提出,“统筹好水电自用与外送,积极争取国家支持适当增加特高压直流外送大型水电电源枯期留存四川电量;充分发挥川西水风光互补特性,通过实现四川跨区外送通道‘水风光一体化’,增加新能源外送置换出部分水电留川使用”等举措。高温仍在持续。四川省气象台8月14日15时继续发布高温橙色预警:预计15-19日,盆地大部地方最高气温可达35℃-39℃,其中达州、广安、巴中、南充、遂宁、资阳、内江、自贡、泸州、宜宾10市的部分地方和绵阳、德阳、成都、眉山、乐山5市的东部可达40℃或以上。相比此前发布的高温橙色预警,40℃或以上的范围从10市扩大到15市。四川省防汛抗旱指挥部办公室15日发布的水情快报预测,当周(8月15-21日)全省主要江河来水量将以偏少为主,持续持久高温干旱导致用水用电需求量激增,水库水电站蓄水严重不足,蓄水保供压力大。为打好眼前这场保电“攻坚战”,四川目前多措并举:确保发电资源最大化利用——滚动优化各类电源发电计划,政企协同促进火电存煤。截至8月13日,全网存煤215万吨,同比增加145万吨、增长超两倍,保证火电稳发满发。全力争取省外电力支援——积极争取国家发展和改革委、国家电网公司给予四川紧急电力支援,按最大输电通道能力实施跨省跨区支援。四川跨省跨区所有通道已最大化利用,同时增大水电留川规模,大幅削减四川低谷年度外送计划电力。建立电力保供日会商机制——该省经济和信息化厅、国网四川省电力公司进行日会商,研判分析电力供需形势,研究制度应对措施,最大限度用好各方资源,努力寻求保电网安全、保民生用电、保工业经济发展的最优解。8月16日,国家电网有限公司董事长、党组书记辛保安强调,当前高温仍在持续,迎峰度夏工作正处于最吃劲、最关键的阶段。他在谈及确保电网安全运行时称,要科学安排运行方式,加强电网运行监控,坚持全公司“一盘棋”,发挥大电网资源配置作用,组织跨区跨省余缺互济,最大限度支援川渝地区电力供应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159611":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}