石一的个人主页 - 老虎社区

石一

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01-14

Replying to @好东西要一直拿着:你懂个什么，大a yyds //@好东西要一直拿着:你该不会2025都没挣到钱吧？//@石一:涨个嘚，美股垃圾

02-11

基本盘

01-12

$NQ100指数主连 2603(NQmain)$ 大a还在涨哦！美股韭菜你们好呀！[开心]

2025-11-18

美股的韭菜和大A也差不多

02-05

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 太对了

02-04

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 太对了

01-20

美国基本盘你好

01-20

**

01-20

$NQ100指数主连 2603(NQmain)$ 好，甚好，大Ayyds

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2512(NQmain)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502532150330032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":502403271876672,"gmtCreate":1763676144301,"gmtModify":1763676146657,"author":{"id":"3490802453801032","authorId":"3490802453801032","name":"石一","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3490802453801032","idStr":"3490802453801032"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"美股的故事到头了，哪的韭菜都一样","listText":"美股的故事到头了，哪的韭菜都一样","text":"美股的故事到头了，哪的韭菜都一样","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502403271876672","repostId":"1134947384","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1134947384","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1763652300,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134947384?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-20 23:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"夜读｜英伟达暂时让全世界松了一口气","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134947384","media":"镜相工作室","summary":"英伟达，成为关键变量全球AI浪潮之下，英伟达每个季度的财报都至关重要，这一季度更是被市场紧盯。英伟达的财报就成了最能给出答案的地方。这让英伟达的财报成了12月初美联储会议前的“关键变量”。两派都在用自己的筹码和预期下注，英伟达成了他们博弈的核心。他旗下的Thiel Macro基金在第三季度披露中，彻底清仓了英伟达。到三季度末，其英伟达持股数从二季度的723万股降到251万股，减幅约65%。英伟达股价近期的波动直接反映出这种博弈。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>“关于AI泡沫有很多讨论。从我们的角度来看，截然不同。”美东时间周三盘后，英伟达公布超出预期的三季度财报，电话会上，黄仁勋驳斥了“AI泡沫论”，他认为目前并不存在大家担心的泡沫。</p><p>过去几周，AI叙事支撑下的美国科技股因对泡沫的担忧而持续低迷，多空双方展开了殊死搏斗，其中不乏美国资本市场传奇人物和老牌机构，大家争论的核心是，这轮由AI带来的估值提升，是否存在泡沫，以及泡沫是否将见顶。</p><p>所有人的目光都集中在英伟达身上。这家为AI时代提供基础设施的科技巨头，在10月底成为人类历史上第一家5万亿美元市值的公司，比三年前翻了11倍。<strong>就像观察工业增长情况要看发电量和铁路货运量，英伟达的业绩也成了所有人观察AI需求是否持续增长的最佳窗口，如果英伟达财报不及预期，科技巨头们购买算力芯片的速度放缓，那就意味着这轮AI行情已经到头了。</strong></p><p>毫无疑问，那将是一场灭顶之灾。今年以来，无数人押注AI叙事，从纽约到香港，从纳斯达克到A股市场，全球都在享受AI带来的估值狂飙。红利从英伟达这个源头扩散到上游的电力、铜矿和大宗商品，再到下游游戏、广告等无数行业的降本增效，也支撑着机器人、自动驾驶等多个万亿行业的想象空间，给全世界范围内疲软的经济注入动能，一旦停滞，泡沫破裂，就会是一场惨烈的出逃和无数财富的破灭。</p><p>好在，英伟达交出了一份亮眼的答卷，让所有人松了一口气：<strong>第三季度，英伟达营收达570亿美元，较去年同期增长62%，GAAP和非GAAP稀释后每股收益均为1.3美元，三项指标都高于市场预期；业绩指引也很是大胆——预计下一季度营收同比增长约65%，达到650亿美元，上下浮动2%。</strong></p><p>财报同时透露，Blackwell系列芯片需求旺盛，云端GPU也已售罄，直接回应了市场对于AI需求是否见顶的担忧。财报发布后，英伟达股价盘后一度大涨超过6%，也带动亚马逊、微软、谷歌母公司Alphabet、Meta和甲骨文等科技巨头股价同步上涨。</p><p>然而，市场对AI泡沫的担忧并未完全消退。有一些分析师表示，这份财报或许并不足以平息人们对AI泡沫的担忧，他们仍对AI支出可持续性、循环融资、业务集中度等问题心存疑虑。</p><p>但至少，接下来的几个月时间，给AI下重注的人们，又可以接着奏乐，接着舞了。</p><h2 id=\"id_2117175951\">英伟达，成为关键变量</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">全球AI浪潮之下，英伟达每个季度的财报都至关重要，这一季度更是被市场紧盯。</p><p>当外界开始反复盘问“AI到底是不是泡沫？”英伟达的财报就成了最能给出答案的地方。市场需要英伟达这块试金石来检验，巨额的模型训练成本、超大规模的云基础设施投入、不断更新迭代的AI应用，最终会沉淀为真实、持续、可复制的商业回报。</p><p>这种重要性在美股结构中被进一步放大。<strong>科技巨头的市值像黑洞一样吸走指数的权重，现在的“美股七巨头”——苹果、微软、谷歌、亚马逊、英伟达、特斯拉和Meta，占据了标普500指数总市值近四成，仅英伟达便占了约8%。</strong></p><p>11月至英伟达发布财报前夕，随着投资者抛售科技股，“美股七巨头”的总市值已下跌了近4.5%，仅谷歌母公司Alphabet逆势上扬。美股三大指数也跟着下跌：这周一，道指下跌1.18%，标普500指数跌0.92%，纳指跌0.84%。其中，标普500指数和纳指都跌破了50日均线。重仓科技股的投资者，翘首以盼英伟达带来的转折和信心。</p><p>宏观环境的不确定性加重了泡沫破裂的担忧。近期美联储多位官员连续发表鹰派言论，使市场对12月降息的信心动摇，对流动性的预期减弱。最新数据显示，截至11月20日，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已降至32.7%，维持利率不变的概率为67.3%。</p><p>降息预期的摇摆，让所有对未来现金流敏感的公司都像坐上了过山车。<strong>它们被迫重新思考，高利率是否会比预期更久地停留，从而让公司的融资成本继续维持在高位。而如果资金成本降不下来，云服务商和大模型公司就要更谨慎地决定每一笔采购、每一次扩容，对未来两到三年的AI资本开支也要做更细的预算。</strong></p><p>这让英伟达的财报成了12月初美联储会议前的“关键变量”。美联储主席鲍威尔决定利率的方向，而黄仁勋则直接影响AI产业能否继续以原有速度扩张。这两人的信号，被市场放在了同一个秤盘上。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4f53581acc3f23eb545b07ecd981f9\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\"/></p><p><strong>● </strong>当地时间2025年9月17日，纽约证券交易所的电视屏幕上播放着美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议后发表讲话的画面。此前，美联储官员将基准利率下调了25个基点，并计划在今年内再进行两次降息。图源：视觉中国 </p><p><strong>投资者非常清楚，一旦利率停在高位太久，AI企业必须靠自有现金流来支撑扩张，而不是靠债务融资。即便是微软、亚马逊这种现金机器，也会感受到压力，更别说那些仍在烧钱的大模型新贵。</strong>这时，英伟达的营收增长以及对未来的指引就显得尤为重要，某种程度上，这是一种共识：大家都在一条船上，都在继续投入，那游戏就可以继续玩。</p><p>AI叙事分裂、科技股估值过高、宏观政策不确定，各方压力袭来，部分机构和投资者开始转向，在清仓和重仓间摇摆。</p><p>于是，英伟达被推到一个不寻常的位置。它不仅要展示自己的增长，还要替整个行业向市场证明，巨额投入背后有长期回报，而不是泡沫的幻影。</p><h2 id=\"id_2776488735\">空头与多头的激烈交战</h2><p>站在聚光灯下的英伟达，市场对它未来走向的争论，比以往任何时候都更加激烈。一边是那些依然坚定看多的机构和分析师，另一边则是已经或开始退出的重磅玩家。<strong>两派都在用自己的筹码和预期下注，英伟达成了他们博弈的核心。</strong></p><p>在空头阵营里，“硅谷风投教父”Peter Thiel成为最引人注目的名字。他旗下的Thiel Macro基金在第三季度披露中，彻底清仓了英伟达。美国证券交易委员会公布的截至2025年9月30日的第三季度持仓报告（13F）显示，他卖出了约53.77万股英伟达，这是其投资组合中非常大的一块。这次减持释放了一个强烈信号：即便是看过无数科技浪潮的老赌徒，也对如今英伟达的超高估值与风险有所警惕。</p><p>与此同时，全球最大对冲基金桥水（Bridgewater Associates）也大幅减仓。到三季度末，其英伟达持股数从二季度的723万股降到251万股，减幅约65%。软银更是直接清仓，在10月以58.3亿美元的价格卖出了所持所有英伟达股票，原因是“为了将资金用于我们的融资”。</p><p>除了看空，还有主动做空的。比如《大空头》原型Michael Burry，13F报告显示，其买入了100万股（1.86亿美元）英伟达的看跌期权。</p><p>但看多阵营也毫不示弱。摩根大通维持对英伟达的增持评级，给出目标价215美元；伦敦证券交易所集团LSEG对英伟达的营收预期也非常乐观，还希望英伟达在下季度展望中能再度加速；D.A. Davidson、Sanford C. Bernstein、UBS等机构也在近期重申买入或上调目标价。这些乐观看法基础是：AI需求没有减弱，大型云厂商仍在疯狂扩算力，还有Blackwell和Rubin这样具有中长期潜力的平台。</p><p>英伟达股价近期的波动直接反映出这种博弈。11月至发布财报前，英伟达股价下跌明显，最低收盘价仅180.11美元，较10月最高价跌去超10%，这与部分资金的减持动作高度吻合。财报发布前，不少散户和中小投资者紧盯动向，他们既担心跌得更重，也在计算这是否是逢低吸纳的机会。</p><p>总体来看，这次财报前的争论主要集中在三条核心分歧：<strong>估值是否已过高？云服务商和大模型公司未来开支是否能持续？英伟达是否真的能兑现中长期增长预期？</strong></p><p>对多头来说，最关键的数据是营收增速、数据中心业务利润率和未来指引；对空头来说，则是公司是否能维持高增长，以及高估值是否在宏观或行业节奏调整中被惩罚。</p><p><strong>这场多空交战并不只是技术性的买卖，而是一次深刻的信念博弈。</strong>英伟达这份财报，是多头检验未来扩张能否兑现的节点，也是空头追问泡沫是否已经形成的关键。</p><h2 id=\"id_1402526140\">继续创纪录，指引很大胆</h2><p>从这份三季度报来看，“卖铲子的人”不会输。英伟达交出的成绩单既能安抚怀疑者，又给了多头继续下注的理由。</p><p>财报显示，截至2025年10月26日的第三季度，英伟达营收达570亿美元，较去年同期增长62%，GAAP和非GAAP稀释后每股收益均为1.3美元，三项指标都高于市场预期；GAAP毛利率和非GAAP毛利率分别为73.4%和73.6%，略低于市场预期。更为关键的数据中心业务，在第三季度贡献了512亿美元的营收，同比增长66%，占公司营收近九成。</p><p><strong>英伟达的业绩超预期，几乎是在意料之中的事，AI浪潮以来，它的业绩一直在“创纪录”，市场更关心的是未来。</strong>不负众望的是，英伟达给出了颇为大胆的第四季度指引：预计营收同比增长约65%，达到650亿美元，上下浮动2%，远高于LSEG预计的614.4亿美元；GAAP和非GAAP毛利率预计分别为74.8%和75.0%，上下浮动50个基点，将是自2025财年第二财季以来六个季度内首次毛利率同比增长。</p><p>几组数字给需求是否见顶的讨论按下暂停键。从积极面看，英伟达再次证明了几件事：</p><p>一是需求持续旺盛。Blackwell在云端与企业级客户中供不应求，云端GPU售罄的说法也并非空穴来风。电话会上，英伟达披露，2025-2026年Blackwell加上Rubin的5000亿美元收入之外，还有沙特、Anthropic带来的更多的订单增长空间；</p><p>二是公司现金流强劲，三季度经营活动净现金流约237.5亿美元、自由现金流约220.9亿美元，为持续研发、供应链扩张和对外战略投资提供了弹药，这是能否承接需求的关键；</p><p>三是毛利率虽然略低于分析师预期，但公司对四季度将回升的指引，显示其对成本改善的信心，这也是支撑其当前高估值的核心要素之一。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/969e4cbe07bcacd090bbe3234214a105\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\"/></p><p><strong>● </strong>当地时间2025年11月19日，美国华盛顿，英伟达（Nvidia）创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋（中）在约翰·F·肯尼迪表演艺术中心举行的美沙投资论坛上与沙特阿拉伯代表团成员交谈。图源：视觉中国</p><p>但财报里也有一些容易被忽视的风险。</p><p>部分非核心业务的表现并不完美。游戏与AI PC收入43亿美元，汽车与机器人业务5.92亿美元，都低于分析师预期。<strong>这说明英伟达并非全面开花，数据中心业务大而强，公司对其依赖性越来越强，这会带来一定的结构风险。</strong></p><p>与此同时，英伟达在电话会中明确，由于地缘政治问题和中国市场日益激烈的竞争，本季度并未出现大规模采购订单；与上一季度一致，不假设来自中国的任何数据中心计算收入——地缘政治和出口限制仍然有着不利影响。</p><p>更长远的隐忧是，虽然管理层强调在全球供应链中建立了弹性和冗余，并一再表示产能在提升，但将5000万美元乃至更多订单，转化为持续的、季度到季度的现金流，需要靠实际交付与客户的不断追加采购来兑现；<strong>若交付节奏不及预期或客户选择延缓采购，就会把增长从现在推到未来，这对估值敏感的英伟达来说并非小事。</strong></p><p>这份财报把对“AI是不是泡沫”的答案暂时偏向了“还不是”，因为需求与现金流的信号仍在，但它并未把所有疑虑从根部拔除。英伟达已将行业的分歧推向一个更高的台阶，现在的问题是，能否在更大的规模、更高的基数和更复杂的外部环境下，把这场史诗级的增长，变成一个可持续、可预测的商业模式。</p><h2 id=\"id_1624199125\">“卖铲子的人”也有野心</h2><p>外界往往把英伟达视作一家“卖芯片”的公司，但从这季财报披露的合作来看，它已经远远不是一个供应商，而是在向“一个负责定义、组装并调度未来AI算力世界的中心”进化，它试图掌控未来AI发展的节奏。</p><p>最直接的例子来自与OpenAI的合作，这也是市场最为关注的焦点。9月下旬，英伟达官宣和OpenAI价值1000亿美元的合作，双方计划为OpenAI的下一代AI基础设施部署至少10GW的英伟达系统，第一阶段部署预计将于2026年下半年在NVIDIA Vera Rubin平台上线。</p><p>这意味着一个重大的承诺：<strong>未来几年里，OpenAI的算力增长几乎完全锚定在英伟达的架构之上，对于急需超大算力、又不能承担供应链风险的OpenAI来说，选择英伟达就是选择确定性。</strong></p><p>英伟达和Anthropic的合作同样关键。美国东部时间11月18日，Anthropic宣布与微软、英伟达建立战略合作伙伴关系，英伟达、微软承诺将分别向Anthropic投资100亿美元和50亿美元，Anthropic则承诺将至少购买1GW英伟达的算力。</p><p>这是Anthropic首次大规模采用英伟达基础设施，将直接使用Grace Blackwell与Vera Rubin系统。这让英伟达不仅绑定了最大规模的模型开发者之一，也把未来两到三年的前沿AI系统训练与推理需求提前收入囊中。</p><p>与此同时，大型科技公司也在同步加码。谷歌、微软、Oracle、xAI等，都在扩建以英伟达GPU为核心的AI基础设施。<strong>摩根士丹利测算，到2027年，六大科技公司（亚马逊、微软、谷歌、Meta、Oracle、CoreWeave）的资本开支将从今年的2700亿美元增长到超6300亿美元。这些数字不是抽象的宏观指标，而是未来几年持续承接英伟达GPU出货的资金保障。资金越滚越大，英伟达的地位反而越稳。</strong></p><p>这也是英伟达宣布要协助建造七台新型超级计算机的原因，包括美国能源部最大的AI超算Solstice（十万颗Blackwell），另一台Equinox（1万颗Blackwell），以及英国、韩国、沙特、德国等国家级项目。这些合作不仅扩大了英伟达的装机体量，也强化了它在科研、工业、国防和政府领域的不可替代性。</p><p>但这张版图的关键部分，不仅仅是规模，还有技术路线。过去一年，业内对“ASIC（专用集成电路）会不会取代GPU”的讨论不断升温。<strong>亚马逊的Trainium、谷歌的TPU、自研芯片风潮、OpenAI与博通合作的传闻，都制造了英伟达“被稀释”的可能性。</strong></p><p>然而，从黄仁勋在电话会中的回答来看，这种担忧更多是外部观察者的揣测，而不是产业内部的真实变量。他描述的现实要复杂得多——从混合专家到密集模型，到扩散模型，到自回归，更不用说服从物理定律的生物模型，模型的多样性令人难以置信，AI不再是一颗芯片就能搞定的，必须构建整个机架。</p><p>在这种环境下，英伟达的优势来自五个维度：系统化的加速平台、覆盖AI全流程的性能、对所有模型的兼容性、无处不在的生态覆盖，以及巨大的承购量。<strong>ASIC可以在局部表现出色，但很难在模型快速迭代、工作负载极度多样化的世界里维持通用性，更无法满足超大规模云厂商对灵活、可随时切换的根本诉求。</strong></p><p>这一逻辑正在外部合作中被不断强化。例如，报告期内，英伟达推出NVQLink架构，这是一种开放的系统架构，可将英伟达GPU计算的极致性能与量子处理器紧密结合，全球十几个超级计算中心将采用该架构；与通信巨头诺基亚合作，将英伟达支持的AI-RAN产品添加到诺基亚业界领先的RAN产品组合中，使通信服务提供商能够在英伟达平台上推出AI原生的5G-Advanced和6G网络。</p><p><strong>所有这些合作的本质，是英伟达在深度绑定一个全面扩张的AI世界。</strong>这是一种“向外吸附生态、向内绑定算力”的闭环，每一个新合作代表着一个长期需求池，每一个新技术代表着一个未来算力峰值，而这些需求与峰值都将转化成英伟达未来季度报表上的真实数字。</p><p>从资本市场的角度看，英伟达正在做两件事情——巩固当前的龙头地位，同时为未来三到五年的业绩铺路。它正在把自身定位为AI时代的“底层公共设施”。那样的话，不管AI泡沫是否会在未来破灭，至少英伟达能从泡沫中存活下来。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1735133514683","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n夜读｜英伟达暂时让全世界松了一口气\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-20 23:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bxMChJh0ZbL2Jfu8XUmR7Q><strong>镜相工作室</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“关于AI泡沫有很多讨论。从我们的角度来看，截然不同。”美东时间周三盘后，英伟达公布超出预期的三季度财报，电话会上，黄仁勋驳斥了“AI泡沫论”，他认为目前并不存在大家担心的泡沫。过去几周，AI叙事支撑下的美国科技股因对泡沫的担忧而持续低迷，多空双方展开了殊死搏斗，其中不乏美国资本市场传奇人物和老牌机构，大家争论的核心是，这轮由AI带来的估值提升，是否存在泡沫，以及泡沫是否将见顶。所有人的目光都集中...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bxMChJh0ZbL2Jfu8XUmR7Q\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"NVDS":"1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bxMChJh0ZbL2Jfu8XUmR7Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134947384","content_text":"“关于AI泡沫有很多讨论。从我们的角度来看，截然不同。”美东时间周三盘后，英伟达公布超出预期的三季度财报，电话会上，黄仁勋驳斥了“AI泡沫论”，他认为目前并不存在大家担心的泡沫。过去几周，AI叙事支撑下的美国科技股因对泡沫的担忧而持续低迷，多空双方展开了殊死搏斗，其中不乏美国资本市场传奇人物和老牌机构，大家争论的核心是，这轮由AI带来的估值提升，是否存在泡沫，以及泡沫是否将见顶。所有人的目光都集中在英伟达身上。这家为AI时代提供基础设施的科技巨头，在10月底成为人类历史上第一家5万亿美元市值的公司，比三年前翻了11倍。就像观察工业增长情况要看发电量和铁路货运量，英伟达的业绩也成了所有人观察AI需求是否持续增长的最佳窗口，如果英伟达财报不及预期，科技巨头们购买算力芯片的速度放缓，那就意味着这轮AI行情已经到头了。毫无疑问，那将是一场灭顶之灾。今年以来，无数人押注AI叙事，从纽约到香港，从纳斯达克到A股市场，全球都在享受AI带来的估值狂飙。红利从英伟达这个源头扩散到上游的电力、铜矿和大宗商品，再到下游游戏、广告等无数行业的降本增效，也支撑着机器人、自动驾驶等多个万亿行业的想象空间，给全世界范围内疲软的经济注入动能，一旦停滞，泡沫破裂，就会是一场惨烈的出逃和无数财富的破灭。好在，英伟达交出了一份亮眼的答卷，让所有人松了一口气：第三季度，英伟达营收达570亿美元，较去年同期增长62%，GAAP和非GAAP稀释后每股收益均为1.3美元，三项指标都高于市场预期；业绩指引也很是大胆——预计下一季度营收同比增长约65%，达到650亿美元，上下浮动2%。财报同时透露，Blackwell系列芯片需求旺盛，云端GPU也已售罄，直接回应了市场对于AI需求是否见顶的担忧。财报发布后，英伟达股价盘后一度大涨超过6%，也带动亚马逊、微软、谷歌母公司Alphabet、Meta和甲骨文等科技巨头股价同步上涨。然而，市场对AI泡沫的担忧并未完全消退。有一些分析师表示，这份财报或许并不足以平息人们对AI泡沫的担忧，他们仍对AI支出可持续性、循环融资、业务集中度等问题心存疑虑。但至少，接下来的几个月时间，给AI下重注的人们，又可以接着奏乐，接着舞了。英伟达，成为关键变量全球AI浪潮之下，英伟达每个季度的财报都至关重要，这一季度更是被市场紧盯。当外界开始反复盘问“AI到底是不是泡沫？”英伟达的财报就成了最能给出答案的地方。市场需要英伟达这块试金石来检验，巨额的模型训练成本、超大规模的云基础设施投入、不断更新迭代的AI应用，最终会沉淀为真实、持续、可复制的商业回报。这种重要性在美股结构中被进一步放大。科技巨头的市值像黑洞一样吸走指数的权重，现在的“美股七巨头”——苹果、微软、谷歌、亚马逊、英伟达、特斯拉和Meta，占据了标普500指数总市值近四成，仅英伟达便占了约8%。11月至英伟达发布财报前夕，随着投资者抛售科技股，“美股七巨头”的总市值已下跌了近4.5%，仅谷歌母公司Alphabet逆势上扬。美股三大指数也跟着下跌：这周一，道指下跌1.18%，标普500指数跌0.92%，纳指跌0.84%。其中，标普500指数和纳指都跌破了50日均线。重仓科技股的投资者，翘首以盼英伟达带来的转折和信心。宏观环境的不确定性加重了泡沫破裂的担忧。近期美联储多位官员连续发表鹰派言论，使市场对12月降息的信心动摇，对流动性的预期减弱。最新数据显示，截至11月20日，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已降至32.7%，维持利率不变的概率为67.3%。降息预期的摇摆，让所有对未来现金流敏感的公司都像坐上了过山车。它们被迫重新思考，高利率是否会比预期更久地停留，从而让公司的融资成本继续维持在高位。而如果资金成本降不下来，云服务商和大模型公司就要更谨慎地决定每一笔采购、每一次扩容，对未来两到三年的AI资本开支也要做更细的预算。这让英伟达的财报成了12月初美联储会议前的“关键变量”。美联储主席鲍威尔决定利率的方向，而黄仁勋则直接影响AI产业能否继续以原有速度扩张。这两人的信号，被市场放在了同一个秤盘上。● 当地时间2025年9月17日，纽约证券交易所的电视屏幕上播放着美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议后发表讲话的画面。此前，美联储官员将基准利率下调了25个基点，并计划在今年内再进行两次降息。图源：视觉中国 投资者非常清楚，一旦利率停在高位太久，AI企业必须靠自有现金流来支撑扩张，而不是靠债务融资。即便是微软、亚马逊这种现金机器，也会感受到压力，更别说那些仍在烧钱的大模型新贵。这时，英伟达的营收增长以及对未来的指引就显得尤为重要，某种程度上，这是一种共识：大家都在一条船上，都在继续投入，那游戏就可以继续玩。AI叙事分裂、科技股估值过高、宏观政策不确定，各方压力袭来，部分机构和投资者开始转向，在清仓和重仓间摇摆。于是，英伟达被推到一个不寻常的位置。它不仅要展示自己的增长，还要替整个行业向市场证明，巨额投入背后有长期回报，而不是泡沫的幻影。空头与多头的激烈交战站在聚光灯下的英伟达，市场对它未来走向的争论，比以往任何时候都更加激烈。一边是那些依然坚定看多的机构和分析师，另一边则是已经或开始退出的重磅玩家。两派都在用自己的筹码和预期下注，英伟达成了他们博弈的核心。在空头阵营里，“硅谷风投教父”Peter Thiel成为最引人注目的名字。他旗下的Thiel Macro基金在第三季度披露中，彻底清仓了英伟达。美国证券交易委员会公布的截至2025年9月30日的第三季度持仓报告（13F）显示，他卖出了约53.77万股英伟达，这是其投资组合中非常大的一块。这次减持释放了一个强烈信号：即便是看过无数科技浪潮的老赌徒，也对如今英伟达的超高估值与风险有所警惕。与此同时，全球最大对冲基金桥水（Bridgewater Associates）也大幅减仓。到三季度末，其英伟达持股数从二季度的723万股降到251万股，减幅约65%。软银更是直接清仓，在10月以58.3亿美元的价格卖出了所持所有英伟达股票，原因是“为了将资金用于我们的融资”。除了看空，还有主动做空的。比如《大空头》原型Michael Burry，13F报告显示，其买入了100万股（1.86亿美元）英伟达的看跌期权。但看多阵营也毫不示弱。摩根大通维持对英伟达的增持评级，给出目标价215美元；伦敦证券交易所集团LSEG对英伟达的营收预期也非常乐观，还希望英伟达在下季度展望中能再度加速；D.A. Davidson、Sanford C. Bernstein、UBS等机构也在近期重申买入或上调目标价。这些乐观看法基础是：AI需求没有减弱，大型云厂商仍在疯狂扩算力，还有Blackwell和Rubin这样具有中长期潜力的平台。英伟达股价近期的波动直接反映出这种博弈。11月至发布财报前，英伟达股价下跌明显，最低收盘价仅180.11美元，较10月最高价跌去超10%，这与部分资金的减持动作高度吻合。财报发布前，不少散户和中小投资者紧盯动向，他们既担心跌得更重，也在计算这是否是逢低吸纳的机会。总体来看，这次财报前的争论主要集中在三条核心分歧：估值是否已过高？云服务商和大模型公司未来开支是否能持续？英伟达是否真的能兑现中长期增长预期？对多头来说，最关键的数据是营收增速、数据中心业务利润率和未来指引；对空头来说，则是公司是否能维持高增长，以及高估值是否在宏观或行业节奏调整中被惩罚。这场多空交战并不只是技术性的买卖，而是一次深刻的信念博弈。英伟达这份财报，是多头检验未来扩张能否兑现的节点，也是空头追问泡沫是否已经形成的关键。继续创纪录，指引很大胆从这份三季度报来看，“卖铲子的人”不会输。英伟达交出的成绩单既能安抚怀疑者，又给了多头继续下注的理由。财报显示，截至2025年10月26日的第三季度，英伟达营收达570亿美元，较去年同期增长62%，GAAP和非GAAP稀释后每股收益均为1.3美元，三项指标都高于市场预期；GAAP毛利率和非GAAP毛利率分别为73.4%和73.6%，略低于市场预期。更为关键的数据中心业务，在第三季度贡献了512亿美元的营收，同比增长66%，占公司营收近九成。英伟达的业绩超预期，几乎是在意料之中的事，AI浪潮以来，它的业绩一直在“创纪录”，市场更关心的是未来。不负众望的是，英伟达给出了颇为大胆的第四季度指引：预计营收同比增长约65%，达到650亿美元，上下浮动2%，远高于LSEG预计的614.4亿美元；GAAP和非GAAP毛利率预计分别为74.8%和75.0%，上下浮动50个基点，将是自2025财年第二财季以来六个季度内首次毛利率同比增长。几组数字给需求是否见顶的讨论按下暂停键。从积极面看，英伟达再次证明了几件事：一是需求持续旺盛。Blackwell在云端与企业级客户中供不应求，云端GPU售罄的说法也并非空穴来风。电话会上，英伟达披露，2025-2026年Blackwell加上Rubin的5000亿美元收入之外，还有沙特、Anthropic带来的更多的订单增长空间；二是公司现金流强劲，三季度经营活动净现金流约237.5亿美元、自由现金流约220.9亿美元，为持续研发、供应链扩张和对外战略投资提供了弹药，这是能否承接需求的关键；三是毛利率虽然略低于分析师预期，但公司对四季度将回升的指引，显示其对成本改善的信心，这也是支撑其当前高估值的核心要素之一。● 当地时间2025年11月19日，美国华盛顿，英伟达（Nvidia）创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋（中）在约翰·F·肯尼迪表演艺术中心举行的美沙投资论坛上与沙特阿拉伯代表团成员交谈。图源：视觉中国但财报里也有一些容易被忽视的风险。部分非核心业务的表现并不完美。游戏与AI PC收入43亿美元，汽车与机器人业务5.92亿美元，都低于分析师预期。这说明英伟达并非全面开花，数据中心业务大而强，公司对其依赖性越来越强，这会带来一定的结构风险。与此同时，英伟达在电话会中明确，由于地缘政治问题和中国市场日益激烈的竞争，本季度并未出现大规模采购订单；与上一季度一致，不假设来自中国的任何数据中心计算收入——地缘政治和出口限制仍然有着不利影响。更长远的隐忧是，虽然管理层强调在全球供应链中建立了弹性和冗余，并一再表示产能在提升，但将5000万美元乃至更多订单，转化为持续的、季度到季度的现金流，需要靠实际交付与客户的不断追加采购来兑现；若交付节奏不及预期或客户选择延缓采购，就会把增长从现在推到未来，这对估值敏感的英伟达来说并非小事。这份财报把对“AI是不是泡沫”的答案暂时偏向了“还不是”，因为需求与现金流的信号仍在，但它并未把所有疑虑从根部拔除。英伟达已将行业的分歧推向一个更高的台阶，现在的问题是，能否在更大的规模、更高的基数和更复杂的外部环境下，把这场史诗级的增长，变成一个可持续、可预测的商业模式。“卖铲子的人”也有野心外界往往把英伟达视作一家“卖芯片”的公司，但从这季财报披露的合作来看，它已经远远不是一个供应商，而是在向“一个负责定义、组装并调度未来AI算力世界的中心”进化，它试图掌控未来AI发展的节奏。最直接的例子来自与OpenAI的合作，这也是市场最为关注的焦点。9月下旬，英伟达官宣和OpenAI价值1000亿美元的合作，双方计划为OpenAI的下一代AI基础设施部署至少10GW的英伟达系统，第一阶段部署预计将于2026年下半年在NVIDIA Vera Rubin平台上线。这意味着一个重大的承诺：未来几年里，OpenAI的算力增长几乎完全锚定在英伟达的架构之上，对于急需超大算力、又不能承担供应链风险的OpenAI来说，选择英伟达就是选择确定性。英伟达和Anthropic的合作同样关键。美国东部时间11月18日，Anthropic宣布与微软、英伟达建立战略合作伙伴关系，英伟达、微软承诺将分别向Anthropic投资100亿美元和50亿美元，Anthropic则承诺将至少购买1GW英伟达的算力。这是Anthropic首次大规模采用英伟达基础设施，将直接使用Grace Blackwell与Vera Rubin系统。这让英伟达不仅绑定了最大规模的模型开发者之一，也把未来两到三年的前沿AI系统训练与推理需求提前收入囊中。与此同时，大型科技公司也在同步加码。谷歌、微软、Oracle、xAI等，都在扩建以英伟达GPU为核心的AI基础设施。摩根士丹利测算，到2027年，六大科技公司（亚马逊、微软、谷歌、Meta、Oracle、CoreWeave）的资本开支将从今年的2700亿美元增长到超6300亿美元。这些数字不是抽象的宏观指标，而是未来几年持续承接英伟达GPU出货的资金保障。资金越滚越大，英伟达的地位反而越稳。这也是英伟达宣布要协助建造七台新型超级计算机的原因，包括美国能源部最大的AI超算Solstice（十万颗Blackwell），另一台Equinox（1万颗Blackwell），以及英国、韩国、沙特、德国等国家级项目。这些合作不仅扩大了英伟达的装机体量，也强化了它在科研、工业、国防和政府领域的不可替代性。但这张版图的关键部分，不仅仅是规模，还有技术路线。过去一年，业内对“ASIC（专用集成电路）会不会取代GPU”的讨论不断升温。亚马逊的Trainium、谷歌的TPU、自研芯片风潮、OpenAI与博通合作的传闻，都制造了英伟达“被稀释”的可能性。然而，从黄仁勋在电话会中的回答来看，这种担忧更多是外部观察者的揣测，而不是产业内部的真实变量。他描述的现实要复杂得多——从混合专家到密集模型，到扩散模型，到自回归，更不用说服从物理定律的生物模型，模型的多样性令人难以置信，AI不再是一颗芯片就能搞定的，必须构建整个机架。在这种环境下，英伟达的优势来自五个维度：系统化的加速平台、覆盖AI全流程的性能、对所有模型的兼容性、无处不在的生态覆盖，以及巨大的承购量。ASIC可以在局部表现出色，但很难在模型快速迭代、工作负载极度多样化的世界里维持通用性，更无法满足超大规模云厂商对灵活、可随时切换的根本诉求。这一逻辑正在外部合作中被不断强化。例如，报告期内，英伟达推出NVQLink架构，这是一种开放的系统架构，可将英伟达GPU计算的极致性能与量子处理器紧密结合，全球十几个超级计算中心将采用该架构；与通信巨头诺基亚合作，将英伟达支持的AI-RAN产品添加到诺基亚业界领先的RAN产品组合中，使通信服务提供商能够在英伟达平台上推出AI原生的5G-Advanced和6G网络。所有这些合作的本质，是英伟达在深度绑定一个全面扩张的AI世界。这是一种“向外吸附生态、向内绑定算力”的闭环，每一个新合作代表着一个长期需求池，每一个新技术代表着一个未来算力峰值，而这些需求与峰值都将转化成英伟达未来季度报表上的真实数字。从资本市场的角度看，英伟达正在做两件事情——巩固当前的龙头地位，同时为未来三到五年的业绩铺路。它正在把自身定位为AI时代的“底层公共设施”。那样的话，不管AI泡沫是否会在未来破灭，至少英伟达能从泡沫中存活下来。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2,"NVDS":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":501730083876992,"gmtCreate":1763500455738,"gmtModify":1763502502133,"author":{"id":"3490802453801032","authorId":"3490802453801032","name":"石一","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3490802453801032","idStr":"3490802453801032"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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