JRP的个人主页 - 老虎社区

JRP

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2022-10-20

$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$天天跌模式又开启了

2022-09-07

$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$不装了先跌为敬[捂脸]

2022-08-30

$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$欧洲天然气暴跌，通胀在一定程度上缓解。欧股大涨，纳指也跟着涨

2022-08-17

$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$晚上不崩更待何时

2022-06-12

越是恐慌越该买进待涨

预警频频，史上最大泡沫来临？美联储有可能加息75个基点吗？

2022-05-27

$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 今天又要吃掉两天的涨幅[捂脸]

2022-05-18

$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 这几天天天玩个性让人摸不着头脑

2022-05-16

$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 牛啊又套牢一片

2022-05-03

$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 最近的行情，都是涨一天跌两天，涨一天跌一天的都很少[捂脸]

2022-05-02

$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 12800估计是钻石底

2022-04-28

$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 太可怕了每次都是拉高暴跌[呆住]

2022-03-21

$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 今天要大跌了

2022-02-28

$NQ100指数主连 2203(NQmain)$ 必跌的东西走起来想要涨了一样

2022-02-22

这个只是提早半天说了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-01-28

$NQ100指数主连 2203(NQmain)$ 底部放利好如果都变成出货，那么纳斯达克就真完了

2022-01-10

$NQ100指数主连 2203(NQmain)$ 这种点位谁做空谁破产[微笑]

2022-01-03

$NQ100指数主连 2203(NQmain)$ 大家都在创新高纳斯达克也只是时间的问题

2021-10-30

$NQ100指数主连 2112(NQmain)$ 用大a的逻辑玩美股等于找死

2021-10-01

$NQ100指数主连 2112(NQmain)$ 天天做多天天套这都什么玩意儿

2021-09-22

$NQ100指数主连 2112(NQmain)$ 早盘涨尾盘跌就这样愉快的决定了

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2209(NQmain)$晚上不崩更待何时","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/687975975","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3577377479597027","authorId":"3577377479597027","name":"美吹1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"会议前资金出逃罢了 晚上2点会议 预计加息75的概率降低 然后暴力拉升 上演低开高走的一晚","text":"会议前资金出逃罢了 晚上2点会议 预计加息75的概率降低 然后暴力拉升 上演低开高走的一晚","html":"会议前资金出逃罢了 晚上2点会议 预计加息75的概率降低 然后暴力拉升 上演低开高走的一晚"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":680687303,"gmtCreate":1655004378905,"gmtModify":1704860943003,"author":{"id":"3487223583947768","authorId":"3487223583947768","name":"JRP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6f73e1123606fd7eda88e5a0da886ec","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"越是恐慌越该买进待涨","listText":"越是恐慌越该买进待涨","text":"越是恐慌越该买进待涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/680687303","repostId":"2242561396","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2242561396","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1654995603,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2242561396?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-12 09:00","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"预警频频，史上最大泡沫来临？美联储有可能加息75个基点吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2242561396","media":"券商中国","summary":"史上最大的泡沫，突然传来了密集的预警声。当前美国市场，出现了一个值得警惕的信号：全球首富、华尔街投行、前美联储高官、经济学教授...等大佬们，对美国经济似乎越来越悲观。在最新的采访中，“黑天鹅”基金U","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a0c467425d24d08aad0edbc90b560a7\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>史上最大的泡沫，突然传来了密集的预警声。</p><p>当前美国市场，出现了一个值得警惕的信号：全球首富、华尔街投行、前美联储高官、经济学教授...等大佬们，对美国经济似乎越来越悲观。在最新的采访中，“黑天鹅”基金Universa Investments首席投资官Mark Spitznagel表示，金融体系最容易受到“人类历史上最大信用债泡沫”的冲击，如果这个泡沫破灭，那将是所有人所见过的最灾难性的市场失灵。</p><p>更明确的信号是，嗅觉最敏锐的桥水基金已经开始做空欧美公司债，媒体援引知情人士表示，今年4月，桥水基金已经开始运用一篮子信用衍生品做空了欧美公司债。</p><p>另外，滚烫的美国楼市也传来了危险的信号。据美国商务部公布的最新数据显示，美国新房的销售量创出9年以来的环比最大跌幅。另有数据显示，5月美国活跃挂牌的楼市库存同比上升8%，是数年来美国楼市的“重大转折点”，越来越多的卖家开始加速抛售套现，美国的抵押贷款需求量更是跌至22年来的最低水平。</p><p>吹起泡沫、刺破泡沫，美联储都扮演者关键角色。目前看来，在美国总统拜登的施压下，美联储的加息风暴或许会更为猛烈。华尔街甚至已经开始讨论美联储单次加息75个基点的可能性。</p><p>密集的预警声</p><p>一连串的悲观警告，给美股再添阴霾。</p><p>当地时间6月10日，美国5月CPI数据披露，通货膨胀率再四十年来最高增速，令市场大感意外。美股开盘后，三大指数集体低开低走，最终，集体暴跌收场，纳指领跌，跌幅达3.5%，标普收跌2.9%，道指重挫880点，跌幅达2.73%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31c125b03494885622e1099c79399ee0\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>其中，美股科技龙头股全线暴跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>大跌5.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>跌超5%，Facebook母公司Meta收跌4.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>跌幅分别达3.9%、4.5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>跌3.2%。</p><p>在经历一轮凶猛抛售潮后，华尔街分析人士指出，爆表的通胀、美联储加息的阴霾下，美股市场正在重新审视美国经济衰退的风险，因为这一风险并未被市场充分定价。</p><p>当前，全球首富、华尔街投行、前美联储高官、经济学教授...等大佬们，对美国经济似乎越来越悲观。</p><p>在最新的采访中，“黑天鹅”基金Universa Investments首席投资官Mark Spitznagel表示，金融体系最容易受到“人类历史上最大信用债泡沫”的冲击。如果这个泡沫破灭，那将是所有人所见过的最灾难性的市场失灵。</p><p>当前美国信用债市场主要由市政债与公司债共同构成，美国信用债未来5年平均到期规模超1万亿美元，且投机级占比持续提升，加大企业端偿债压力。</p><p>Spitznagel一直坚定反对美联储将利率维持在接近于0甚至负的水平，他警告称，这推升了资产价值并鼓励过度借贷。目前，全球央行都在收紧货币政策以抗通胀，美国国债的表现正在令投资者失望。</p><p>本周<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>发布的最新报告指出，如果经济衰退如预测的那样在明年年底到来，通胀水平维持在高位，那么预计美国垃圾债违约率将达到10.3％左右的峰值。</p><p>更明确的信号是，嗅觉最敏锐的桥水基金已经开始做空欧美公司债，媒体援引知情人士表示，早在今年4月桥水基金便运用一篮子信用衍生品做空了欧美公司债。</p><p>桥水联合首席投资官Greg Jensen在接受采访时表示，桥水之所以选择做空欧美公司债，是因为公司认为通胀将比美联储预期的更为根深蒂固，而这最终将迫使美联储加快加息步伐。</p><p><b>其他华尔街巨头也接连发出警告：</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>首席执行官表示，美国经济难以避免某种程度的衰退；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席执行官戴蒙警告称，美国经济面临前所未有的挑战，投资者应该为即将到来的“经济风暴”做准备；</p><p>高盛集团总裁约翰·<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688028\">沃尔德</a>伦（John Waldron）也发出预警：由于全球经济受到的一系列冲击，未来将步入一段艰难时期，已经看到了更加严峻的资本市场环境。</p><p>在分析美国经济衰退的可能性时，美国前财长、现职哈佛教授萨默斯更是直白地表示，历史告诉我们，当通胀超过4%且失业率低于4%时，美国经济2年内就会步入衰退，当前美国没有工具能够平稳地使得经济“软着陆”。</p><p>据美国劳工部最新的数据显示，美国5月的非农失业率为3.6%，而美国5月的通货膨胀率却仍高达8.6%。市场预期，美联储将进一步激进加息，甚至大幅缩减资产负债表，以遏制“高烧不退”的通货膨胀。</p><p>另外，曾在2009年至2018年担任纽约联储主席的威廉·杜德利（William Dudley）表示，在本轮周期实现软着陆的可能性几乎为零，因为过去他们每次不得不推高失业率时，最后都以衰退告终。</p><p>美国楼市的危险信号</p><p>与此同时，持续飙涨的美国楼市，也传来了危险的信号。</p><p>2022年以来，美联储激进的加息政策，正在迅速推升美国的房贷利率，美国30年房贷平均固定利率从今年初的3.1%飙升至5.1%，导致美国楼市大幅降温，新房和二手房销售量双双下滑。</p><p>据美国商务部公布的数据显示，2022年4月，美国新房的销售量环比下降16.6%，已经连续4个月下降，创2020年4月以来新低，且跌幅为9年来最大。</p><p><b>高房价、高利率，正在显著冲击火爆的美国楼市。据美国统计网站Realtor.com，5月美国活跃挂牌的楼市库存同比上升8%，这是数年来美国楼市库存首个“重大转折点”，感受到压力的卖家开始加速抛售套现。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d8cc4f488ef4b1d8b10709c12f120ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"828\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>根据美国抵押贷款银行家协会（MBA）发布的季节性调整指数，上周的抵押贷款申请总量与前一周相比下降了6.5%（包括购买和再融资申请），这是连续第四周下降，需求量跌至22年来的最低水平。</p><p>在此之前，受美联储的史诗级大放水的刺激，美国房价的涨势格外凶猛，据标普<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">CoreLogic</a>凯斯·席勒全国房价指数更新的最新数据显示，美国3月全国房价指数同比上涨20.6%，这也是该数据35年历史的同比增速新高。同时，凯斯-席勒的十城和二十城指数同比涨幅也达到19.5%和21.2%。</p><p>目前，全美的平均房价较2012年波底的累计涨幅，已经超过100%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7635bf03a9b4040bc5821fe5b40b209\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"806\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>美国房价的另一个先行指标：木材价格也已拉响警报。据CME最新的交易数据显示，自3月初以来，美国木材价格已经腰斩。截至目前，芝加哥木材期货跌至572美元/千板尺，今年以来已累计跌去50%。</p><p>约翰·伯恩斯房地产咨询公司指出，美国木材价格下滑，主要是因为新房需求遭到飙升的房贷利率而下降，且美国木材库存已经升至高位。</p><p>对此，全球最大的木材生产商之一Canfor表示，将延长减产计划，以解决库存过剩的问题。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>预计，美国房地产或将“退烧”，美联储加息推高房贷利率，房地产销售投资或放缓。但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">中金公司</a>进一步指出，在金融严监管下，过去2年内美国新增房贷大部分是高等级信用贷款，而非“次贷”，因此，美国楼市“退烧”，或许不会引发金融系统性风险。</p><p>加息风暴将来得更猛烈？</p><p><b>吹起泡沫、刺破泡沫，美联储都扮演者关键角色。</b></p><p>目前来看，美股的持续暴跌与房地产“退烧”，仍旧不是美联储最担忧的问题，最“燃眉之急”的问题仍然是爆表的通胀率。</p><p>最新披露的数据显示，美国5月CPI同比加速增长8.6%，在4月增长略有回落后未能继续增长放缓，反而刷新3月所创的四十年来最高增速，令市场大感意外。</p><p>数据公布后，美国总统拜登在一份声明中明确表示，抗击通货膨胀是美国政府的首要经济任务，美国需要“迅速采取更多措施来降低价格”，并呼吁国会通过降低能源、处方药和运输成本的立法。</p><p>随着11月的中期选举临近，通胀飙升已经成为拜登政府的一个政治难题。最新民调结果显示，仅有37%的人赞成拜登对美国目前经济问题的处理，仅有28%的人赞成他对通胀的处理。超过80%的受访者认为，经济问题、通胀和不断上涨的天然气价格是决定他们今年11月如何投票的最重要问题。</p><p>面对一系列的压力之下，拜登政府正在向美联储施压、甩锅。美国白宫经济顾问塞西莉亚·劳斯最新表态称，拜登给了美联储“做他们需要做的事情的空间”。</p><p>华尔街交易员预计，美联储在6月、7月和9月各加息50个基点，同时随后的降息预期也在飙升。华尔街甚至已经开始讨论美联储加息75个基点的可能性，巴克莱成为首家预计加息75个基点的华尔街大行，甚至预计，下周就会这一幅度加息，掉期市场预计7月加息75个基点的概率达到50%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>预警频频，史上最大泡沫来临？美联储有可能加息75个基点吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n预警频频，史上最大泡沫来临？美联储有可能加息75个基点吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-12 09:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a0c467425d24d08aad0edbc90b560a7\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>史上最大的泡沫，突然传来了密集的预警声。</p><p>当前美国市场，出现了一个值得警惕的信号：全球首富、华尔街投行、前美联储高官、经济学教授...等大佬们，对美国经济似乎越来越悲观。在最新的采访中，“黑天鹅”基金Universa Investments首席投资官Mark Spitznagel表示，金融体系最容易受到“人类历史上最大信用债泡沫”的冲击，如果这个泡沫破灭，那将是所有人所见过的最灾难性的市场失灵。</p><p>更明确的信号是，嗅觉最敏锐的桥水基金已经开始做空欧美公司债，媒体援引知情人士表示，今年4月，桥水基金已经开始运用一篮子信用衍生品做空了欧美公司债。</p><p>另外，滚烫的美国楼市也传来了危险的信号。据美国商务部公布的最新数据显示，美国新房的销售量创出9年以来的环比最大跌幅。另有数据显示，5月美国活跃挂牌的楼市库存同比上升8%，是数年来美国楼市的“重大转折点”，越来越多的卖家开始加速抛售套现，美国的抵押贷款需求量更是跌至22年来的最低水平。</p><p>吹起泡沫、刺破泡沫，美联储都扮演者关键角色。目前看来，在美国总统拜登的施压下，美联储的加息风暴或许会更为猛烈。华尔街甚至已经开始讨论美联储单次加息75个基点的可能性。</p><p>密集的预警声</p><p>一连串的悲观警告，给美股再添阴霾。</p><p>当地时间6月10日，美国5月CPI数据披露，通货膨胀率再四十年来最高增速，令市场大感意外。美股开盘后，三大指数集体低开低走，最终，集体暴跌收场，纳指领跌，跌幅达3.5%，标普收跌2.9%，道指重挫880点，跌幅达2.73%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31c125b03494885622e1099c79399ee0\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>其中，美股科技龙头股全线暴跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>大跌5.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>跌超5%，Facebook母公司Meta收跌4.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>跌幅分别达3.9%、4.5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>跌3.2%。</p><p>在经历一轮凶猛抛售潮后，华尔街分析人士指出，爆表的通胀、美联储加息的阴霾下，美股市场正在重新审视美国经济衰退的风险，因为这一风险并未被市场充分定价。</p><p>当前，全球首富、华尔街投行、前美联储高官、经济学教授...等大佬们，对美国经济似乎越来越悲观。</p><p>在最新的采访中，“黑天鹅”基金Universa Investments首席投资官Mark Spitznagel表示，金融体系最容易受到“人类历史上最大信用债泡沫”的冲击。如果这个泡沫破灭，那将是所有人所见过的最灾难性的市场失灵。</p><p>当前美国信用债市场主要由市政债与公司债共同构成，美国信用债未来5年平均到期规模超1万亿美元，且投机级占比持续提升，加大企业端偿债压力。</p><p>Spitznagel一直坚定反对美联储将利率维持在接近于0甚至负的水平，他警告称，这推升了资产价值并鼓励过度借贷。目前，全球央行都在收紧货币政策以抗通胀，美国国债的表现正在令投资者失望。</p><p>本周<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>发布的最新报告指出，如果经济衰退如预测的那样在明年年底到来，通胀水平维持在高位，那么预计美国垃圾债违约率将达到10.3％左右的峰值。</p><p>更明确的信号是，嗅觉最敏锐的桥水基金已经开始做空欧美公司债，媒体援引知情人士表示，早在今年4月桥水基金便运用一篮子信用衍生品做空了欧美公司债。</p><p>桥水联合首席投资官Greg Jensen在接受采访时表示，桥水之所以选择做空欧美公司债，是因为公司认为通胀将比美联储预期的更为根深蒂固，而这最终将迫使美联储加快加息步伐。</p><p><b>其他华尔街巨头也接连发出警告：</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>首席执行官表示，美国经济难以避免某种程度的衰退；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席执行官戴蒙警告称，美国经济面临前所未有的挑战，投资者应该为即将到来的“经济风暴”做准备；</p><p>高盛集团总裁约翰·<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688028\">沃尔德</a>伦（John Waldron）也发出预警：由于全球经济受到的一系列冲击，未来将步入一段艰难时期，已经看到了更加严峻的资本市场环境。</p><p>在分析美国经济衰退的可能性时，美国前财长、现职哈佛教授萨默斯更是直白地表示，历史告诉我们，当通胀超过4%且失业率低于4%时，美国经济2年内就会步入衰退，当前美国没有工具能够平稳地使得经济“软着陆”。</p><p>据美国劳工部最新的数据显示，美国5月的非农失业率为3.6%，而美国5月的通货膨胀率却仍高达8.6%。市场预期，美联储将进一步激进加息，甚至大幅缩减资产负债表，以遏制“高烧不退”的通货膨胀。</p><p>另外，曾在2009年至2018年担任纽约联储主席的威廉·杜德利（William Dudley）表示，在本轮周期实现软着陆的可能性几乎为零，因为过去他们每次不得不推高失业率时，最后都以衰退告终。</p><p>美国楼市的危险信号</p><p>与此同时，持续飙涨的美国楼市，也传来了危险的信号。</p><p>2022年以来，美联储激进的加息政策，正在迅速推升美国的房贷利率，美国30年房贷平均固定利率从今年初的3.1%飙升至5.1%，导致美国楼市大幅降温，新房和二手房销售量双双下滑。</p><p>据美国商务部公布的数据显示，2022年4月，美国新房的销售量环比下降16.6%，已经连续4个月下降，创2020年4月以来新低，且跌幅为9年来最大。</p><p><b>高房价、高利率，正在显著冲击火爆的美国楼市。据美国统计网站Realtor.com，5月美国活跃挂牌的楼市库存同比上升8%，这是数年来美国楼市库存首个“重大转折点”，感受到压力的卖家开始加速抛售套现。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d8cc4f488ef4b1d8b10709c12f120ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"828\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>根据美国抵押贷款银行家协会（MBA）发布的季节性调整指数，上周的抵押贷款申请总量与前一周相比下降了6.5%（包括购买和再融资申请），这是连续第四周下降，需求量跌至22年来的最低水平。</p><p>在此之前，受美联储的史诗级大放水的刺激，美国房价的涨势格外凶猛，据标普<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">CoreLogic</a>凯斯·席勒全国房价指数更新的最新数据显示，美国3月全国房价指数同比上涨20.6%，这也是该数据35年历史的同比增速新高。同时，凯斯-席勒的十城和二十城指数同比涨幅也达到19.5%和21.2%。</p><p>目前，全美的平均房价较2012年波底的累计涨幅，已经超过100%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7635bf03a9b4040bc5821fe5b40b209\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"806\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>美国房价的另一个先行指标：木材价格也已拉响警报。据CME最新的交易数据显示，自3月初以来，美国木材价格已经腰斩。截至目前，芝加哥木材期货跌至572美元/千板尺，今年以来已累计跌去50%。</p><p>约翰·伯恩斯房地产咨询公司指出，美国木材价格下滑，主要是因为新房需求遭到飙升的房贷利率而下降，且美国木材库存已经升至高位。</p><p>对此，全球最大的木材生产商之一Canfor表示，将延长减产计划，以解决库存过剩的问题。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>预计，美国房地产或将“退烧”，美联储加息推高房贷利率，房地产销售投资或放缓。但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">中金公司</a>进一步指出，在金融严监管下，过去2年内美国新增房贷大部分是高等级信用贷款，而非“次贷”，因此，美国楼市“退烧”，或许不会引发金融系统性风险。</p><p>加息风暴将来得更猛烈？</p><p><b>吹起泡沫、刺破泡沫，美联储都扮演者关键角色。</b></p><p>目前来看，美股的持续暴跌与房地产“退烧”，仍旧不是美联储最担忧的问题，最“燃眉之急”的问题仍然是爆表的通胀率。</p><p>最新披露的数据显示，美国5月CPI同比加速增长8.6%，在4月增长略有回落后未能继续增长放缓，反而刷新3月所创的四十年来最高增速，令市场大感意外。</p><p>数据公布后，美国总统拜登在一份声明中明确表示，抗击通货膨胀是美国政府的首要经济任务，美国需要“迅速采取更多措施来降低价格”，并呼吁国会通过降低能源、处方药和运输成本的立法。</p><p>随着11月的中期选举临近，通胀飙升已经成为拜登政府的一个政治难题。最新民调结果显示，仅有37%的人赞成拜登对美国目前经济问题的处理，仅有28%的人赞成他对通胀的处理。超过80%的受访者认为，经济问题、通胀和不断上涨的天然气价格是决定他们今年11月如何投票的最重要问题。</p><p>面对一系列的压力之下，拜登政府正在向美联储施压、甩锅。美国白宫经济顾问塞西莉亚·劳斯最新表态称，拜登给了美联储“做他们需要做的事情的空间”。</p><p>华尔街交易员预计，美联储在6月、7月和9月各加息50个基点，同时随后的降息预期也在飙升。华尔街甚至已经开始讨论美联储加息75个基点的可能性，巴克莱成为首家预计加息75个基点的华尔街大行，甚至预计，下周就会这一幅度加息，掉期市场预计7月加息75个基点的概率达到50%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a0c467425d24d08aad0edbc90b560a7","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2242561396","content_text":"史上最大的泡沫，突然传来了密集的预警声。当前美国市场，出现了一个值得警惕的信号：全球首富、华尔街投行、前美联储高官、经济学教授...等大佬们，对美国经济似乎越来越悲观。在最新的采访中，“黑天鹅”基金Universa Investments首席投资官Mark Spitznagel表示，金融体系最容易受到“人类历史上最大信用债泡沫”的冲击，如果这个泡沫破灭，那将是所有人所见过的最灾难性的市场失灵。更明确的信号是，嗅觉最敏锐的桥水基金已经开始做空欧美公司债，媒体援引知情人士表示，今年4月，桥水基金已经开始运用一篮子信用衍生品做空了欧美公司债。另外，滚烫的美国楼市也传来了危险的信号。据美国商务部公布的最新数据显示，美国新房的销售量创出9年以来的环比最大跌幅。另有数据显示，5月美国活跃挂牌的楼市库存同比上升8%，是数年来美国楼市的“重大转折点”，越来越多的卖家开始加速抛售套现，美国的抵押贷款需求量更是跌至22年来的最低水平。吹起泡沫、刺破泡沫，美联储都扮演者关键角色。目前看来，在美国总统拜登的施压下，美联储的加息风暴或许会更为猛烈。华尔街甚至已经开始讨论美联储单次加息75个基点的可能性。密集的预警声一连串的悲观警告，给美股再添阴霾。当地时间6月10日，美国5月CPI数据披露，通货膨胀率再四十年来最高增速，令市场大感意外。美股开盘后，三大指数集体低开低走，最终，集体暴跌收场，纳指领跌，跌幅达3.5%，标普收跌2.9%，道指重挫880点，跌幅达2.73%。其中，美股科技龙头股全线暴跌，亚马逊大跌5.6%，奈飞跌超5%，Facebook母公司Meta收跌4.6%，苹果、微软跌幅分别达3.9%、4.5%，谷歌跌3.2%。在经历一轮凶猛抛售潮后，华尔街分析人士指出，爆表的通胀、美联储加息的阴霾下，美股市场正在重新审视美国经济衰退的风险，因为这一风险并未被市场充分定价。当前，全球首富、华尔街投行、前美联储高官、经济学教授...等大佬们，对美国经济似乎越来越悲观。在最新的采访中，“黑天鹅”基金Universa Investments首席投资官Mark Spitznagel表示，金融体系最容易受到“人类历史上最大信用债泡沫”的冲击。如果这个泡沫破灭，那将是所有人所见过的最灾难性的市场失灵。当前美国信用债市场主要由市政债与公司债共同构成，美国信用债未来5年平均到期规模超1万亿美元，且投机级占比持续提升，加大企业端偿债压力。Spitznagel一直坚定反对美联储将利率维持在接近于0甚至负的水平，他警告称，这推升了资产价值并鼓励过度借贷。目前，全球央行都在收紧货币政策以抗通胀，美国国债的表现正在令投资者失望。本周德意志银行发布的最新报告指出，如果经济衰退如预测的那样在明年年底到来，通胀水平维持在高位，那么预计美国垃圾债违约率将达到10.3％左右的峰值。更明确的信号是，嗅觉最敏锐的桥水基金已经开始做空欧美公司债，媒体援引知情人士表示，早在今年4月桥水基金便运用一篮子信用衍生品做空了欧美公司债。桥水联合首席投资官Greg Jensen在接受采访时表示，桥水之所以选择做空欧美公司债，是因为公司认为通胀将比美联储预期的更为根深蒂固，而这最终将迫使美联储加快加息步伐。其他华尔街巨头也接连发出警告：富国银行首席执行官表示，美国经济难以避免某种程度的衰退；摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙警告称，美国经济面临前所未有的挑战，投资者应该为即将到来的“经济风暴”做准备；高盛集团总裁约翰·沃尔德伦（John Waldron）也发出预警：由于全球经济受到的一系列冲击，未来将步入一段艰难时期，已经看到了更加严峻的资本市场环境。在分析美国经济衰退的可能性时，美国前财长、现职哈佛教授萨默斯更是直白地表示，历史告诉我们，当通胀超过4%且失业率低于4%时，美国经济2年内就会步入衰退，当前美国没有工具能够平稳地使得经济“软着陆”。据美国劳工部最新的数据显示，美国5月的非农失业率为3.6%，而美国5月的通货膨胀率却仍高达8.6%。市场预期，美联储将进一步激进加息，甚至大幅缩减资产负债表，以遏制“高烧不退”的通货膨胀。另外，曾在2009年至2018年担任纽约联储主席的威廉·杜德利（William Dudley）表示，在本轮周期实现软着陆的可能性几乎为零，因为过去他们每次不得不推高失业率时，最后都以衰退告终。美国楼市的危险信号与此同时，持续飙涨的美国楼市，也传来了危险的信号。2022年以来，美联储激进的加息政策，正在迅速推升美国的房贷利率，美国30年房贷平均固定利率从今年初的3.1%飙升至5.1%，导致美国楼市大幅降温，新房和二手房销售量双双下滑。据美国商务部公布的数据显示，2022年4月，美国新房的销售量环比下降16.6%，已经连续4个月下降，创2020年4月以来新低，且跌幅为9年来最大。高房价、高利率，正在显著冲击火爆的美国楼市。据美国统计网站Realtor.com，5月美国活跃挂牌的楼市库存同比上升8%，这是数年来美国楼市库存首个“重大转折点”，感受到压力的卖家开始加速抛售套现。根据美国抵押贷款银行家协会（MBA）发布的季节性调整指数，上周的抵押贷款申请总量与前一周相比下降了6.5%（包括购买和再融资申请），这是连续第四周下降，需求量跌至22年来的最低水平。在此之前，受美联储的史诗级大放水的刺激，美国房价的涨势格外凶猛，据标普CoreLogic凯斯·席勒全国房价指数更新的最新数据显示，美国3月全国房价指数同比上涨20.6%，这也是该数据35年历史的同比增速新高。同时，凯斯-席勒的十城和二十城指数同比涨幅也达到19.5%和21.2%。目前，全美的平均房价较2012年波底的累计涨幅，已经超过100%。美国房价的另一个先行指标：木材价格也已拉响警报。据CME最新的交易数据显示，自3月初以来，美国木材价格已经腰斩。截至目前，芝加哥木材期货跌至572美元/千板尺，今年以来已累计跌去50%。约翰·伯恩斯房地产咨询公司指出，美国木材价格下滑，主要是因为新房需求遭到飙升的房贷利率而下降，且美国木材库存已经升至高位。对此，全球最大的木材生产商之一Canfor表示，将延长减产计划，以解决库存过剩的问题。中金公司预计，美国房地产或将“退烧”，美联储加息推高房贷利率，房地产销售投资或放缓。但中金公司进一步指出，在金融严监管下，过去2年内美国新增房贷大部分是高等级信用贷款，而非“次贷”，因此，美国楼市“退烧”，或许不会引发金融系统性风险。加息风暴将来得更猛烈？吹起泡沫、刺破泡沫，美联储都扮演者关键角色。目前来看，美股的持续暴跌与房地产“退烧”，仍旧不是美联储最担忧的问题，最“燃眉之急”的问题仍然是爆表的通胀率。最新披露的数据显示，美国5月CPI同比加速增长8.6%，在4月增长略有回落后未能继续增长放缓，反而刷新3月所创的四十年来最高增速，令市场大感意外。数据公布后，美国总统拜登在一份声明中明确表示，抗击通货膨胀是美国政府的首要经济任务，美国需要“迅速采取更多措施来降低价格”，并呼吁国会通过降低能源、处方药和运输成本的立法。随着11月的中期选举临近，通胀飙升已经成为拜登政府的一个政治难题。最新民调结果显示，仅有37%的人赞成拜登对美国目前经济问题的处理，仅有28%的人赞成他对通胀的处理。超过80%的受访者认为，经济问题、通胀和不断上涨的天然气价格是决定他们今年11月如何投票的最重要问题。面对一系列的压力之下，拜登政府正在向美联储施压、甩锅。美国白宫经济顾问塞西莉亚·劳斯最新表态称，拜登给了美联储“做他们需要做的事情的空间”。华尔街交易员预计，美联储在6月、7月和9月各加息50个基点，同时随后的降息预期也在飙升。华尔街甚至已经开始讨论美联储加息75个基点的可能性，巴克莱成为首家预计加息75个基点的华尔街大行，甚至预计，下周就会这一幅度加息，掉期市场预计7月加息75个基点的概率达到50%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1026,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":614268805,"gmtCreate":1653612932311,"gmtModify":1704857687429,"author":{"id":"3487223583947768","authorId":"3487223583947768","name":"JRP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6f73e1123606fd7eda88e5a0da886ec","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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